(Dow Jones via eFXnews) EUR/USD - to range-trade. Undermined by surprise drop in euro-zone February composite PMI to contractionary 49.7 in February from 50.4 in January (vs forecast for rise to 50.8); skepticism about Greece's ability to carry out harsh belt-tightening measures demanded by official creditors to secure EUR130 billion funding package; fears that payouts on Greek sovereign CDS will be triggered, with repercussions on other peripheral euro-zone debt when Greek government imposes a "collective action clause" to force remaining resisting bondholders to accept 53.5% write-down of privately-held Greek sovereign debt; concerns that Portugal may have to restructure its debts. But EUR sentiment soothed by higher-than-expected 1.9% on-month rise in euro-zone December new industrial orders (vs +0.7% foreast). EUR/USD losses also tempered by sovereign demand for euro; EUR demand on buoyant EUR/JPY cross.
Data focus: 0900 GMT German February Ifo business climate index.
All Day Mfg PMIs
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless 2-SEP FRI
12:30 US- Employment
12:30 US/CA- Trade
Trading Themes --
The focus for the balance of the week will be the August U.S. Non-farm Payrolls report due on Friday. Sreet estimats are for a gain in jobs on the order of 180K in the month. However, there is street chatter of a statistical quirk that could result in reading of 50K below the prevailing rate. I would never trust such a story, or try to trade on it. I only mention it because the story is out there. NFP is a random number and I have never seen anyone who could make consistently accurate forecasts of the data.
The ADP Private payrolls survey for August saw a gain of +177K vs. a revised +194K in July. The ADP data are in line with street estimates for +180K. However, keep in mind that the ADP report notoriously is an unreliable predictor of NFP.
Many expect that a strong August employment report could serve as a justification for a Fed interest rate hike in as early as three weeks (September 21).
There is new murmuring in the markets that U.K. PM May's commitment to Brexit may be wavering. The major focus now is the timing of when she will invoke article 50.
German August employment data were in line with estimates while July Retail Sales were mixed.
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