(Dow Jones via eFXnews) EUR/USD - to range-trade. Undermined by surprise drop in euro-zone February composite PMI to contractionary 49.7 in February from 50.4 in January (vs forecast for rise to 50.8); skepticism about Greece's ability to carry out harsh belt-tightening measures demanded by official creditors to secure EUR130 billion funding package; fears that payouts on Greek sovereign CDS will be triggered, with repercussions on other peripheral euro-zone debt when Greek government imposes a "collective action clause" to force remaining resisting bondholders to accept 53.5% write-down of privately-held Greek sovereign debt; concerns that Portugal may have to restructure its debts. But EUR sentiment soothed by higher-than-expected 1.9% on-month rise in euro-zone December new industrial orders (vs +0.7% foreast). EUR/USD losses also tempered by sovereign demand for euro; EUR demand on buoyant EUR/JPY cross.
Data focus: 0900 GMT German February Ifo business climate index.
Investors went bargain-hunting Wednesday as we noted early on. The equity to S&P correlation was working well over the session. Higher oil prices are helpful for the depressed energy sector and help stocks generally. Higher equities are indicative of a reduction in flight to safety demand.
Nevertheless yields on the U.S. 10-yr remain at a low 1.483%. In my opinion, anything below 1.70% is a seriously depressed yield. My best guess is that some reserve managers have been moving funds out of EUR assets with negative yields post-Brexit into USD securities. This might explain in part some of the EURUSD selling over the day.
This remains an active week for U.S. data. The week concludes with the long Independence Day weekend. Next week will see the critical June U.S. employment data. The PCE deflator remained soft in the latest week. A sharp rise in Pending Homes Sales a month ago was reversed by weak data in May and a large downward revision in the previous month's data.
Thursday features flash June EZ HICP data, revisions to 1Q16 UK GDP and weekly U.S Jobless Claims. Friday sees an avalanche of monthly PMI data.
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