(Dow Jones via eFXnews) EUR/USD - to range-trade. Undermined by surprise drop in euro-zone February composite PMI to contractionary 49.7 in February from 50.4 in January (vs forecast for rise to 50.8); skepticism about Greece's ability to carry out harsh belt-tightening measures demanded by official creditors to secure EUR130 billion funding package; fears that payouts on Greek sovereign CDS will be triggered, with repercussions on other peripheral euro-zone debt when Greek government imposes a "collective action clause" to force remaining resisting bondholders to accept 53.5% write-down of privately-held Greek sovereign debt; concerns that Portugal may have to restructure its debts. But EUR sentiment soothed by higher-than-expected 1.9% on-month rise in euro-zone December new industrial orders (vs +0.7% foreast). EUR/USD losses also tempered by sovereign demand for euro; EUR demand on buoyant EUR/JPY cross.
Data focus: 0900 GMT German February Ifo business climate index.
07:55 DE- Employment
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
23:30 JP- CPI 29-Jul FRI
03:00 JP- Bank of Japan
09:00 EZ- GDP, flash HICP
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final U of Mich
Trading Themes --
The Federal Reserve policy decision saw no surprises yesterday with rates held steady. The central bank remained cautious but, as expected, took a modestly more hawkish tone, noting the recent improvement in labor markets and other data. Nevertheless, they did not signal a September rate hike. The Fed continues to say that policy is data dependent and that future rate hikes will only be gradual.
The EURUSD initially fell on the slightly more hawkish poilicy statement, but then the USD fell (EURUSD rose) when dollar demand did not follow through. Markets had already been set up for the Fed statement that was released and position-squaring saw the USD fall with the EURUSD taking out several upside key stop-loss levels.
The Bank of Japan meets Friday. BOJ Governor Kuroda has indicated the central bank would be supportive of a government fiscal stimulus program. We expect a BOJ commitment to additional monetary stimulus. PM Abe is now expected to announce a fiscal stimulus of around JPY 28 tln next Tuesday, August 2. Its exact size is to be determined and probably is still being finalized.
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