EU talks with bankers proving difficult
Merkel and Sarkozy are reportedly negotiating directly with the private sector bankers and talks are being described as â€˜difficultâ€™. The banks are expected to present their latest counter-offer later today.
AUD/USD: Any rallies are classified as corrective, with the market still locked within a well defined downtrend. As such, we would expect to see the current bounce well capped below 1.0500 on a daily close basis in favor of the next major downside extension back towards and eventually below 0.9385. Ultimately, only a daily close back above 1.0550 would delay outlook and give reason for pause. A daily close back below 1.0315 confirms outlook and should accelerate declines. Rallies have stalled into the Ichimoku cloud to further confirm bias.
Equity markets are heading higher as markets are digest the reasons for Fed policy tightening signal Friday. Some are interpreting the sign as an indication that the economy is improving. U.S. inflation data Monday indicated price pressures should not be a cause for Fed worry. U.S. jobs data on Friday are expected to be decisive either way on the September rate decision.
There is new murmuring in the markets that U.K. PM May's commitment to Brexit may be slipping. The major focus now is the timing of when she will invoke article 50. On the other hand, many expect the U.K. economy to flourish once it is out from under the thumb of Brussels.
Markets still don't trust the unreliable verbal signals from the Fed. As an institution, it has lost all credibility with its poorly executed policy "transparency". I would not be surprised by a September hike. Current odds on a rate hike have started to slip again, but I am confident the current plan is to hike no later than December 21. Fed Funds futures place about 32% odds for September and 83% on one rate hike by yearend.
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