| DATE: | 4 Jan 06 | 7 Feb 06 | 7 Mar 06 | 4 Apr 06 | 2 May 06 | 6 Jun 06 | DATE: | 5 Jul 06 | 1 Aug 06 | 5 Sep 06 | DATE: | 3 Oct 06 | 1 Nov 06 | 5 Dec 06 | DATE: | 8 Jan 07 | 6 Feb 07 | 6 Mar 07 | DATE: | 3 Apr 07 | 1 May 07 | 5 Jun 07 | DATE: | 9 Jul 07 | 6 Aug 07 | 11 Sep 07 | DATE: | 02 Oct 07 | 06 Nov 07 | 12 Dec 07 | DATE: |
| EUR/USD Spot | 1.202 | 1.197 | 1.202 | 1.214 | 1.259 | 1.292 | EUR/USD Spot | 1.2795 | 1.277 | 1.282 | EUR/$ Spot | 1.274 | 1.273 | 1.3325 | EUR/$ Spot | 1.3019 | 1.2928 | 1.3098 | EUR/$ Spot | 1.3365 | 1.366 | 1.3487 | EUR/$ Spot | 1.363 | 1.3795 | 1.3806 | EUR/$ Spot | 1.3806 | 1.4469 | 1.4715 | EUR/$ Spot |
| USD/JPY Spot | 116.1 | 118.2 | 117.5 | 117.7 | 113.25 | 112.08 | USD/JPY Spot | 114.6 | 114.65 | 115.95 | $/yen Spot | 117.65 | 117.42 | 115.35 | $/yen Spot | 118.73 | 120.33 | 115.83 | $/yen Spot | 117.8 | 119.45 | 121.8 | $/yen Spot | 123.35 | 118.91 | 113.55 | $/yen Spot | 113.55 | 114.36 | 112.05 | $/yen Spot |
| FORECASTS: | FORECASTS: | FORECASTS: | FORECASTS: | FORECASTS: | FORECASTS: | FORECASTS: | FORECASTS: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Three Months | 4 Apr 06 | 8 May 06 | 7 Jun 06 | 5 Jul 06 | 2 Aug 06 | 6 Sep 06 | Three Months | 5 Oct 06 | 2 Nov 06 | 5 Dec 06 | Three Months | 3 Jan 07 | 3 Feb 07 | 5 Mar07 | Three Months | 9 Apr 07 | 7 May 07 | 6 Jun 07 | Three Months | 3 Jul 07 | 1 Aug 07 | 5 Sep 07 | Three Months | 8 Oct 07 | 10 Nov 07 | 10 Dec 07 | Three Months | 02 Jan 08 | 06 Feb 08 | 07 Mar 08 | Three Months |
| EUR/$ MEAN FCST | 1.2082 | 1.1987 | 1.1905 | 1.2286 | 1.2696 | 1.2919 | EUR/$ MEAN FCST | 1.2900 | 1.2913 | 1.2735 | EUR/$ MEAN FCST | 1.2809 | 1.2804 | 1.3391 | EUR/$ MEAN FCST | 1.3033 | 1.2982 | 1.2998 | EUR/$ MEAN FCST | 1.3410 | 1.3721 | 1.3435 | EUR/$ MEAN FCST | 1.3542 | 1.3853 | 1.3880 | EUR/$ MEAN FCST | 1.3880 | 1.4563 | 1.4144 | EUR/$ MEAN FCST |
| # OF REPLIES | 97 | 106 | 94 | 104 | 106 | 120 | # OF REPLIES | 80 | 84 | 91 | # OF REPLIES | 106 | 103 | 106 | # OF REPLIES | 108 | 103 | 120 | # OF REPLIES | 91 | 96 | 103 | # OF REPLIES | 91 | 81 | 114 | # OF REPLIES | 114 | 98 | 64 | # OF REPLIES |
| STD DEV | 4.06 | 4.21 | 4.11 | 5.19 | 4.32 | 4.28 | STD DEV | 3.70 | 3.47 | 3.76 | STD DEV | 4.34 | 3.86 | 3.68 | STD DEV | 4.01 | 3.99 | 4.71 | STD DEV | 3.88 | 4.16 | 6.16 | STD DEV | 4.60 | 5.43 | 5.63 | STD DEV | 5.63 | 4.56 | 1.83 | STD DEV |
| ACTUAL CLOSE | 1.225 | 1.2703 | 1.2795 | 1.2725 | 1.2797 | 1.2780 | ACTUAL CLOSE | 1.2690 | 1.2780 | 1.3320 | ACTUAL CLOSE | 1.3163 | 1.2966 | 1.3098 | ACTUAL CLOSE | n/a | n/a | n/a | ACTUAL CLOSE | n/a | n/a | n/a | ACTUAL CLOSE | n/a | n/a | n/a | ACTUAL CLOSE | n/a | n/a | n/a | ACTUAL CLOSE |
| $/YEN MEAN FCST | 115.81 | 117.68 | 117.65 | 116.38 | 112.01 | 110.92 | $/YEN MEAN FCST | 112.84 | 112.18 | 115.40 | $/YEN MEAN FCST | 116.16 | 114.86 | 113.27 | $/YEN MEAN FCST | 115.47 | 118.86 | 116.31 | $/YEN MEAN FCST | 116.11 | 118.17 | 120.24 | $/YEN MEAN FCST | 122.27 | 116.40 | 112.56 | $/YEN MEAN FCST | 112.56 | 113.94 | 112.08 | $/YEN MEAN FCST |
| # OF REPLIES | 97 | 106 | 94 | 104 | 106 | 120 | # OF REPLIES | 80 | 84 | 91 | # OF REPLIES | 106 | 103 | 106 | # OF REPLIES | 108 | 103 | 120 | # OF REPLIES | 91 | 96 | 103 | # OF REPLIES | 91 | 81 | 114 | # OF REPLIES | 114 | 98 | 62 | # OF REPLIES |
| STD DEV | 3.78 | 4.51 | 4.41 | 5.11 | 4.80 | 5.60 | STD DEV | 3.63 | 3.68 | 3.99 | STD DEV | 4.51 | 4.17 | 4.06 | STD DEV | 4.60 | 4.57 | 4.41 | STD DEV | 4.24 | 4.52 | 5.30 | STD DEV | 4.44 | 4.72 | 5.74 | STD DEV | 5.74 | 4.74 | 2.34 | STD DEV |
| ACTUAL CLOSE | 117.50 | 111.69 | 113.45 | 115.65 | 114.57 | 116.75 | ACTUAL CLOSE | 117.69 | 117.15 | 114.95 | ACTUAL CLOSE | 119.36 | 121.06 | 115.83 | ACTUAL CLOSE | n/a | n/a | n/a | ACTUAL CLOSE | n/a | n/a | n/a | ACTUAL CLOSE | n/a | n/a | n/a | ACTUAL CLOSE | n/a | n/a | n/a | ACTUAL CLOSE |
| Three Months | Three Months | Three Months | Three Months | Three Months | Three Months | Three Months | Three Months | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Crude Oil MEAN FCST | 60.29 | 62.30 | 61.87 | 67.86 | 71.50 | 71.08 | Crude Oil MEAN FCST | 73.77 | 71.42 | 65.87 | Crude Oil MEAN FCST | 63.17 | 58.33 | 61.34 | Crude Oil MEAN FCST | 59.81 | 61.44 | 61.83 | Crude Oil MEAN FCST | 65.65 | 69.00 | 67.79 | Crude Oil MEAN FCST | 71.33 | 75.56 | 75.18 | Crude Oil MEAN FCST | 74.86 | 94.06 | 88.06 | Crude Oil MEAN FCST |
| # OF REPLIES | 97 | 106 | 94 | 104 | 106 | 120 | # OF REPLIES | 80 | 84 | 91 | # OF REPLIES | 106 | 103 | 106 | # OF REPLIES | 108 | 103 | 120 | # OF REPLIES | 91 | 96 | 103 | # OF REPLIES | 91 | 81 | 114 | # OF REPLIES | 109 | 98 | 64 | # OF REPLIES |
| STD DEV | 6.33 | 5.29 | 6.86 | 4.19 | 3.37 | 4.96 | STD DEV | 1.35 | 3.43 | 5.22 | STD DEV | 5.58 | 5.24 | 5.57 | STD DEV | 6.50 | 6.12 | 6.96 | STD DEV | 5.51 | 5.98 | 6.50 | STD DEV | 4.73 | 1.38 | 1.69 | STD DEV | 1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | STD DEV |
| ACTUAL CLOSE | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | ACTUAL CLOSE | n/a | n/a | n/a | ACTUAL CLOSE | n/a | n/a | n/a | ACTUAL CLOSE | n/a | n/a | n/a | ACTUAL CLOSE | n/a | n/a | n/a | ACTUAL CLOSE | n/a | n/a | n/a | ACTUAL CLOSE | n/a | n/a | n/a | ACTUAL CLOSE |
| Yearend 2006 | 31 Dec 06 | Yearend 2006 | Yearend 2006 | Yearend 2006 | Yearend 2006 | Yearend 2006 | Yearend 2006 | Yearend 2006 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| EUR/$ MEAN FCST | 1.2309 | EUR/$ MEAN FCST | EUR/$ MEAN FCST | EUR/$ MEAN FCST | EUR/$ MEAN FCST | EUR/$ MEAN FCST | EUR/$ MEAN FCST | EUR/$ MEAN FCST | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| # OF REPLIES | 97 | # OF REPLIES | # OF REPLIES | # OF REPLIES | # OF REPLIES | # OF REPLIES | # OF REPLIES | # OF REPLIES | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| STD DEV | 3.79 | STD DEV | STD DEV | STD DEV | STD DEV | STD DEV | STD DEV | STD DEV | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| ACTUAL CLOSE | n/a | ACTUAL CLOSE | ACTUAL CLOSE | ACTUAL CLOSE | ACTUAL CLOSE | ACTUAL CLOSE | ACTUAL CLOSE | ACTUAL CLOSE | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| $/YEN MEAN FCST | 112.68 | $/YEN MEAN FCST | $/YEN MEAN FCST | $/YEN MEAN FCST | $/YEN MEAN FCST | $/YEN MEAN FCST | $/YEN MEAN FCST | $/YEN MEAN FCST | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| # OF REPLIES | 97 | # OF REPLIES | # OF REPLIES | # OF REPLIES | # OF REPLIES | # OF REPLIES | # OF REPLIES | # OF REPLIES | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| STD DEV | 4.75 | STD DEV | STD DEV | STD DEV | STD DEV | STD DEV | STD DEV | STD DEV | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| ACTUAL CLOSE | n/a | ACTUAL CLOSE | ACTUAL CLOSE | ACTUAL CLOSE | ACTUAL CLOSE | ACTUAL CLOSE | ACTUAL CLOSE | ACTUAL CLOSE | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 MONTH INDICES | 3 MONTH INDICES | 3 MONTH INDICES | 3 MONTH INDICES | 3 MONTH INDICES | 3 MONTH INDICES | 3 MONTH INDICES | 3 MONTH INDICES | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EUR/$ band 1 | 1.167 | 1.162 | 1.167 | 1.179 | 1.224 | 1.257 | EUR/$ band 1 | 1.2445 | 1.242 | 1.247 | EUR/$ band 1 | 1.239 | 1.238 | 1.2975 | EUR/$ band 1 | 1.2669 | 1.2578 | 1.2748 | EUR/$ band 1 | 1.3015 | 1.331 | 1.3137 | EUR/$ band 1 | 1.328 | 1.3445 | 1.3456 | EUR/$ band 1 | 1.3456 | 1.4119 | 1.4365 | EUR/$ band 1 |
| band 2 | 1.237 | 1.232 | 1.237 | 1.249 | 1.294 | 1.327 | band 2 | 1.3145 | 1.312 | 1.317 | band 2 | 1.309 | 1.308 | 1.3675 | band 2 | 1.3369 | 1.3278 | 1.3448 | band 2 | 1.3715 | 1.401 | 1.3837 | band 2 | 1.398 | 1.4145 | 1.4156 | band 2 | 1.4156 | 1.4819 | 1.5065 | band 2 |
| $ BULL | 0.09 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.14 | $ BULL | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.20 | $ BULL | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.14 | $ BULL | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.24 | $ BULL | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.12 | $ BULL | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.09 | $ BULL | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.53 | $ BULL |
| NEUTRAL | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.72 | 0.57 | 0.62 | 0.65 | NEUTRAL | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.70 | NEUTRAL | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.51 | NEUTRAL | 0.68 | 0.73 | 0.73 | NEUTRAL | 0.66 | 0.80 | 0.85 | NEUTRAL | 0.89 | 0.79 | 0.70 | NEUTRAL | 0.70 | 0.59 | 0.47 | NEUTRAL |
| $ BEAR | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.38 | 0.26 | 0.21 | $ BEAR | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.10 | $ BEAR | 0.27 | 0.22 | 0.32 | $ BEAR | 0.20 | 0.19 | 0.03 | $ BEAR | 0.21 | 0.08 | 0.03 | $ BEAR | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.21 | $ BEAR | 0.21 | 0.26 | 0.00 | $ BEAR |
| EURO BULL INDEX | 0.53 | 0.45 | 0.48 | 0.67 | 0.58 | 0.53 | EURO BULL INDEX | 0.55 | 0.58 | 0.45 | EURO BULL INDEX | 0.58 | 0.56 | 0.58 | EURO BULL INDEX | 0.54 | 0.56 | 0.39 | EURO BULL INDEX | 0.54 | 0.48 | 0.46 | EURO BULL INDEX | 0.48 | 0.51 | 0.56 | EURO BULL INDEX | 0.56 | 0.55 | 0.23 | EURO BULL INDEX |
| $/YEN band 1 | 119.1 | 121.2 | 120.5 | 120.7 | 116.25 | 115.08 | $/YEN band 1 | 117.6 | 117.65 | 118.95 | $/YEN band 1 | 120.65 | 120.42 | 118.35 | $/YEN band 1 | 121.73 | 123.33 | 118.83 | $/YEN band 1 | 120.8 | 122.45 | 124.8 | $/YEN band 1 | 126.35 | 121.91 | 116.55 | $/YEN band 1 | 116.55 | 117.36 | 115.05 | $/YEN band 1 |
| band 2 | 113.1 | 115.2 | 114.5 | 114.7 | 110.25 | 109.08 | band 2 | 111.6 | 111.65 | 112.95 | band 2 | 114.65 | 114.42 | 112.35 | band 2 | 115.73 | 117.33 | 112.83 | band 2 | 114.8 | 116.45 | 118.8 | band 2 | 120.35 | 115.91 | 110.55 | band 2 | 110.55 | 111.36 | 109.05 | band 2 |
| $ BEAR | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.38 | $ BEAR | 0.33 | 0.49 | 0.16 | $ BEAR | 0.26 | 0.43 | 0.51 | $ BEAR | 0.48 | 0.34 | 0.18 | $ BEAR | 0.21 | 0.18 | 0.17 | $ BEAR | 0.30 | 0.41 | 0.13 | $ BEAR | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.23 | $ BEAR |
| NEUTRAL | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.72 | 0.81 | 0.58 | 0.60 | NEUTRAL | 0.58 | 0.45 | 0.70 | NEUTRAL | 0.66 | 0.54 | 0.42 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | 0.53 | 0.56 | NEUTRAL | 0.76 | 0.77 | 0.79 | NEUTRAL | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.83 | NEUTRAL | 0.83 | 0.82 | 0.63 | NEUTRAL |
| $ BULL | 0.15 | 0.37 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.03 | $ BULL | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.13 | $ BULL | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.07 | $ BULL | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.27 | $ BULL | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.04 | $ BULL | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.04 | $ BULL | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.15 | $ BULL |
| DOLLAR BULL INDEX | 0.52 | 0.69 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 0.36 | 0.33 | DOLLAR BULL INDEX | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0.48 | DOLLAR BULL INDEX | 0.41 | 0.30 | 0.28 | DOLLAR BULL INDEX | 0.27 | 0.39 | 0.55 | DOLLAR BULL INDEX | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.43 | DOLLAR BULL INDEX | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.45 | DOLLAR BULL INDEX | 0.45 | 0.49 | 0.46 | DOLLAR BULL INDEX |
| FF on June 29 | BOC on July 11 | High seen in EUR/JPY | Fed Funds end-2Q07 | Fed Cuts by yearend | Fed Cuts by yearend | Fed Cuts by yearend | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| unch | 42% | unch | 38% | 37% | yes | 61% | 4.75% or below | 1% | Fed rest of year | none | 30% | 3% | none | 3% | none | ||||||||||||||||
| +25bp | 58% | +25bp | 62% | 63% | no | 29% | 5.00% | 26% | no cuts | 50% | 1 (=25bp) | 58% | 7% | 1 (=25bp) | 7% | 1 (=25bp) | |||||||||||||||
| 5.25% | 50% | one cut | 35% | 2 (=50bp) | 12% | 12% | 2 (=50bp) | 12% | 2 (=50bp) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Yearend Fed Funds | FedEase in Jan 2007? | 5.50% | 19% | >one cut | 15% | 3 (=75bp) | 0% | 66% | 3 (=75bp) | 66% | 3 (=75bp) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| <5.25% | 3% | Yes | 30% | 5.75% or above | 4% | 4 (=100bp) | 0% | 12% | 4 (=100bp) | 12% | 4 (=100bp) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 5.00% | 58% | No | 70% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| >5.25% | 39% | G7 | ECB peak Refi rate | ECB Yearend | BOJ rate hike by 1Q08 | BOJ rate hike by 1Q08 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fed Intervention by 1Q07 | Action | 20% | in 2007 (now 3.75%) | 4.00% | 0 | Yes | 37% | Yes | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| yes | 11% | No action | 80% | 3.75% | 4% | 4.25% | 23% | No | 63% | No | |||||||||||||||||||||
| no | 89% | 4.00% | 23% | 4.50% | 66% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Carry Trade 2007 | 4.25% | 48% | above 4.50% | 1% | EUR/USD first? | EUR/USD first? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| over | 42% | 4.50% or higher | 25% | 1.40 | 50% | 1.40 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| not over | 58% | 1.50 | 50% | 1.50 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fed Funds end-2007 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| <5.00% | 2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5.00% | 12% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5.25% | 63% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5.50% | 21% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| >5.50% | 2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||