WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
06:00 DE- Retail Sales
09:00 EZ- flash HICP
12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
14:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
22:30 AU- PMI (late Sunday)
All Day- Final MFG PMIs
01:45 CN- Caixin PMI
4:30 AU- RBA Decision
8:28 GB- Mfg PMI
All Day- Final SVC PMIs
12:15 US- ADP Jobs
14:30 US- EIA Crude
8:28 GB- SVC PMI
12:30 CA/US- Employment
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
Trading Themes --
- The Bank of Japan shocked the markets early Thursday by keeping policy steady. It had seemed like a sure thing after odds for additional BOJ ease increased after the recent earthquakes in southern Japan. All I can say is it appears that the BOJ has thrown in the towel. Everyone knows that NIRP does not work and nobody knows that better than the BOJ. After all, they invented QE. On top of all this Japanese CPI turned negative in March.
- Markets are still attempting to sort out the unepected Bank of Japan lack of stimulus earlier today. It seems that whenever Japan is hit with uncertainty that the first action by investors is to repatriate funds back home. As a reult, the JPY gained about 3% afterwards. We cannot document it, but assume that the Bank of Japan has been in over the day trying to put a floor under the USDJPY.
- The Fed policy decision this Wednesday was to keep rates key steady as broadly expected. However the removal of of the reference to global economic events has been taken as a sign that the risk of a rate hike has risen. No specific guidance for the June meeting, which includes a press conference with the Fed Chair, was forthcoming.
John M.Bland MBA, CTA,
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