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WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
00:30 AU- CPI
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US- Durable Goods
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
14:30 US- Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision
07:55 DE- Employment
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
23:30 JP- CPI
03:00 JP- Bank of Japan
09:00 EZ- GDP, flash HICP
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final U of Mich
Trading Themes --
John M. Bland, MBA
- The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday. No rate changes are seen as likely, although a slightly less dovish tone is seen as probable following the rebound in the June Jobs data. The Fed is likely now to try to focus on a longer term view policy after a couple of embarrsassing flip-flops.
- BOE member Wheal (hawk) commented that the latest weak UK PMI data will be "very material" for the rate decision next week. The GBP dipped vs. the USD and EUR on the report. the street has priced in a 25bp cut in the Repo rate (now 0.50%) next week.
- Fed Funds futures are lousy forecasts of future Fed policy but are an accurate barometer of current market sentiment. Current market odds on one Fed rate hike by year end are running a little above 50-50.
- The Democratic Party Convention runs through Thursday this week with Hillary Clinton set to be proclaimed the party candidate for President in the fall. This has become yet another rancorous convention rather than the planned "coronation", after it was revealed that the Party had favored Clinton over Sanders in the primaries.
- On Friday, the Bank of Japan meets. Over the weekend, Kuroda partially walked back hawkish comments made last week. He indicated the central bank would be supportive of a fiscal stimulus program. We should get some sort of BOJ commitment for additional monetary stimulus on Friday. It comes as no surprise to me that the expectations for a large fiscal stimulus have been pared back. This seems always to happen in Japan. The chatter now is for a modest JPY 6tn in new spending. This is drastically below the JPY 200tn figure bandided about last week.
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Latest News On U.S. Presidentia Election -- Realclearpolitics.com
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