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muntinlupa 10:19:54 GMT - 09/04/2012  
Have you already forecast the update in the Daily FX trading forecast?

NZ Max  12:21:52 GMT - 11/13/2011  

Max McKegg's Special NZDUSD Update for Global-View members:


The New Zealand dollar has become a leading “Risk on” market sentiment indicator over recent months (of the most active crosses it has a strongest correlation with the US stock market) so any return to confidence in the markets will see a strong rally in the “Kiwi”. The reason traders gravitate to the NZD to make risk-on plays is that New Zealand is largely insulated from the European debt problems (its Banks hold no European sovereign debt); it has relatively low government debt itself; interest rates – especially at the long end of the yield curve – are attractive, and the Central Bank does not favour intervening in the currency market, despite itself often labelling the Kiwi as over-valued. As a result, NZD/USD has become one of the half-dozen most actively traded crosses.

And the markets are regaining confidence, probably because of the knowledge that the European Central Bank still has a trump card in its hand - full blown QE – that it will play if required. Also helping to calm markets are the appointments of technocrats to head the government in Greece and Italy (the new head of the ECB is also proving more flexible than his predecessor). Perhaps the biggest risk to a positive resolution to the Euro-zone crisis would be a downgrading of France, which would in turn render the proposed stability fund worthless. That’s possible but not probable; regardless if it did happen ECB would then play its trump card........

From a Technical/Trading perspective, the Kiwi currently displays constructive pattern and wave structures, to enable an advance toward the Key .8240 Resistance level, enroute to the .9000 level over coming weeks.

This forecast will be updated in my Daily FX Trading Forecasts which are sent to subscribers by email. They cover not only NZD/USD, but EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY and AUD. If you would like to request a Trial of my FX Forecasting/Trading Service, contact me at:

Max McKegg’s Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

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