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muntinlupa 10:22:49 GMT - 09/04/2012  
hello, I am new here and I cannot understand some of your topic. I want to learn something from you :)

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  14:51:45 GMT - 07/30/2012  
Note the 200 4 hour mva (yellow line) -- an indicator to watch on top

As noted earlier, 100 and 200 hour mvas currently converging just above 1.22.

1.2250 continues to set the bias while it trades within 1.22-1.23

GVI Forex Jay  17:03:25 GMT - 06/18/2012  
I posted this chart earlier on GVI Forex (and the Inner Circle)

and pointed out the 200 hour mva (yellow) in advance (tested again as I type). This is an indicator to watch going forwards although 1.2550 is likely more important in keeping the focus from shifting back to 1.25.

Latest EURUSD selling pressure appears to be coming from a EURAUD sell order

Note 1.2555 = 61.8% of 1.2436-1.2748

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  00:40:38 GMT - 06/05/2012  
One of the guys on GVI Forex asked if anyone was looking to sell EURUSD 1.25ish when it was trading at 1.2504. This was my reply and I am re-posting it to highlight some shift in technicals (the 4 hour trendline and stops were run subsequent to this post)::

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:16 GMT June 4, 2012 - My Profile
Forex Weathermap - EURUSD: Reply
John, let's see

It closed above the 200 hour mva for the 1st time since May 2

4 hour trendline that started May 1 is currently 1,2507

Chatter of stops earlier at 1.2515-25

Most are skeptical and still bearish but anyone who wanted to sell has sold already.

If you are interested in our new Inner Circle private trading room and a no charge offer, send me an EMAIL

GVI Forex Jay  14:55:43 GMT - 05/30/2012  
Weekly chart. Feel free to comment.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  16:34:10 GMT - 05/29/2012  
I have been highlighting this in my daily Forex Weathermap and it once again proved to be a good indication of risk during the US session (i.e. 1.25 level was broken):

Note, as I have mentioned many times, after an overnight range within two big figures (e.g. 1.25-1.26), the NY session rarely stays that way with one or the other side more often than not being broken. However, while within, 1.2550 sets the intra-day bias.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  10:27:36 GMT - 05/05/2012  
Friday's Forex Weathermap - EURUSD proved to be on target and the weak close risks a gap opening (lower) if weekend election results come in as expected (see concluding paragraph from the report below)

In any case, the upside should be limited ahead of the weekend elections in Greece and France + state election in Germany. Risk is for a Monday gap (down) on the results depending on how EURUSD closes the week and how much is already discounted...

We have been down this road before and will see if the invisible hands supporting the downside appear again. Key support is at 1.3058 and 1.3050 (where there were rumored bids on Friday) ahead of the more imporant 1.2995 and 1.2973 levels. Back above 1.3100-05, at a minimum, would be needed to slow the risk.

GVI Forex Jay  15:58:29 GMT - 05/02/2012  
This is a follow up to the one hour chart I posted yesterday (see post below) where I highlighted potential for a brealdown. The chart posted above is a post-mortem but says it all.

GVI Forex Jay  18:15:24 GMT - 05/01/2012  
One hour chart - trendline (still up) is tracking the 200 hour mva (yellow) so levels to watch for this move to breakdown on downside.

GVI Forex Jay  11:21:35 GMT - 05/01/2012  
From GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay 11:17 GMT May 1, 2012
AUD: Reply

This is the EURAUD chart Flip referred to. .7730 = 1.2937 (my chart shows 1.2931 as former support but close enough). High so far today 1.2867

Brisbane Flip 05:34 GMT May 1, 2012
AUD: Reply
AUDEUR 0.7730 is kenhuge

It was the lid 2010, 2011 and floor 2012 (so far).
The orthodox trade has been buy Australia and the commodity Chinaphoria proxy and sell Europe and its inevitable slide into the abyss. 07350 (mid 70/77 old range) target I think

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  14:34:20 GMT - 04/24/2012  
EURUSD traded to form by not staying in a range between two big figures (e.g. 1.31-1.32)even though it looked like it would be thaqt type of day. From my earlier Forex Weathermap:

l For today, range day is likely so look for 1.3150 to set the tone while within 1.31-1.32. Note EURUSD rarely stays within 2 big figures (e.g. 1.31-1.32) during the US session but while it stays in a range expected limited follow through.

Feel free to comment.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:21:00 GMT - 04/24/2012  
A word about tight ranges:

Small moves can seem exaggerated when trading in tight ranges. This is something to keep in mind and it is important to keep the broader picture in mind on a day like this.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  18:46:10 GMT - 04/19/2012  
This is from the Lloyds Bank Daily FX Strategy report that comes out prior to the London opening. The reason I am posting it is it is a good illustration of the impact of cross flows and why you need to pay attention to crosses even if you don;t trade them. Crosses, which are a big part of spot moves, give a clue to where the flows driving the market are going. I would be glad to discuss this further if you have any questions:

From the report

EUR/GBP sold-off after the BoE minutes yesterday, this put pressure on EUR/USD but the break higher in GBP/USD through the 1.60 level helped drag EUR/USD through the 1.31 level.

(note once eurusd found support yesterday (1.3057), a firmer gbpusd took over and dragged the eurusd along with it once eurgbp stabilized):


One source of eurusd demand after the initial sell-off today has come from firmer eur/commdity crosses (note euraud, eurcad, eurnzd) as equities turned weak and risk off mood prevailed.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:04:40 GMT - 04/13/2012  
I posted this earlier on GVI Forex (note, EURUSD traded to a 1.3122 low after this post)

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:48 GMT April 13, 2012 - My Profile
Forex Weathermap - EURUSD: Reply
1.3122 = S1 and 50% of 1.3031-1.3213

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  12:12:38 GMT - 04/11/2012  
The following are levels I include in the Forex Weathermap report I post on GVI FOrex

1.3250 = 61.8% and also midpoint of 1.30-1.35
1.3212 = 50 day mva
1.3208 = 50% of 1.3385-1.3031
1.3204 = 20 day mva
1,3164 = April 5 high
1.3156 - intra-day high


GVI Forex Jay meisler  00:15:29 GMT - 04/11/2012  
Posted earlier on GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:03 GMT April 10, 2012 - My Profile
1.31 has printed 4 days in a row.

Range over this time 1.3031-1.3164

Last pattern like this was 5 days (March 28 - April 2) but difference is EURUSD was bid but couldn't establish 1.33+. This time it is offered and yet to establish sub-1.31 but that is the risk. A break of this pattern could signal the next directional move. Currently, 1.31 is acting as resistance.

GVI Forex Jay  11:52:24 GMT - 04/04/2012  
The one hour eurusd triangle was mentioned yesterday and price action suggests some were looking foir an upside breakout so the downside break helped spark the reaction. See chart.

GVI Forex Jay  12:35:36 GMT - 03/23/2012  
This is from a RTRS recap (full report in our blog) and describes in different terms what I have been referring to a pop and drop or air pocket market:

The euro climbed from Thursday's low of $1.3133, rising to a three-week high of $1.3293 before dipping back to $1.3253, up 0.4 percent for the day.

Many market players remain short of euros on worries over an economic slowdown and high levels of sovereign debt in many euro zone countries, notably Spain, but for now the common currency was gaining respite.

"A week short on data and events is likely to end as it began - with illiquid trade and the resulting intraday jumps in EUR-USD. As a result any jerks up or down might easily knock market participants out of their positions in the range between 1.3000 and 1.3335," said Commerzbank in a note.

GVI Forex Jay  12:50:48 GMT - 03/22/2012  
Interesting one hour chart sent to me by a friend:

GVI Forex Jay  16:12:13 GMT - 03/21/2012  
Note the 100 hour mva (noted earlier on GVI Forex ) - checked the downside

Also noted was 1.3177 = 38.2% of 1.3004-1.3284

Low was 1.3179

GVI Forex Jay  18:13:24 GMT - 03/16/2012  
One hour chart

GVI Forex Jay  18:11:29 GMT - 03/16/2012  
I posted this on GVI Forex to put the price action in perspective:

Using 1.3486-1.3004,

1.3188 = 38.2% (high today 1.3187)
1.3245 = 50%
1.3302 = 61.8%

Other key levels 1.3191, 1.3220 (100 day), 1.3229 (20 day) and 1.3291

With that said, 1.32 is the key psychological level that needs to hold to keep the focus on 1.30.

I will also post a one hour chart, which I pointed out in my Forex Weathermap update and break of the trendline helped fuel yet another short squeeze.

GVI Forex  Jay  15:56:59 GMT - 03/14/2012  
I posted this on GVI Forex

Market is taking turns selling currencies in a liquidating market for some pairs + gold. As for eurusd, only demand seems to have come when there is cross buying and then no follow through. SOB has worked, initially below the 50 day mva and currently using 50 period mva on a 5 minute chart to keep it tight.

GVI Forex Jay  16:01:28 GMT - 03/13/2012  
I posted this level earlier on GVI Forex

1.3122 = 50% of 1.3191-1.3052 (today's range) => just capped the upside

Re GBP - there was earlier chatter of a London PM fixing order (4 PM fix = 16:00 GMT) - see if buying slows after this time

GVI Forex Jay  12:57:28 GMT - 03/13/2012  
I have showed here previously how the 50 period 5 minute mva (purple line) can often be a good indicator, not always but when it holds or tracks a move I take notice. Here is another illustration.

Note earlier how it checked the upside.

GVI Forex Jay  12:25:36 GMT - 03/07/2012  
I put a large weight on trendliunes and former trendlines in my analysis. Note the former trendline broken yesterday, which I have been pointing out this week and again this morning in my Forex Weathermap.

See the daily chart (above) and how the high today at 1.3163 paused just below the broken trendline (1.3166). Next key obstacle on the downside is the 50 day mva (purple line).

GVI Forex Jay  14:15:14 GMT - 03/05/2012  
I posted this on GVI Forex (note 1.3237 held initial test)

GVI Forex Jay 13:31 GMT March 5, 2012 - My Profile
Forex Weathermap - EURUSD: Reply
It is hard to tell whether stocks or FX is leading but seems to be a correlation. I still don't see the logic of buying euros based on higher US stocks given the divergent US and EZ economies and talk of the euro as a funding currency.

In any case, the pause above the channel support has seen a bounce back above 1.32.

1.3237 = 23.6% of 1.386-1.3160
1.3251 = 20 day mva
1.3285 = 38.2%

GVI Forex Jay  18:32:49 GMT - 02/29/2012  
I mentioned earlier on GVI Forex the 100 hour mva, which held above since Feb 17 and notice what happened when broiken. I had a discussion with a friend who said this is not an important indicator. I countered by saying it is the length of time,in this case above it, that increases its significance.

I don't have room to post a daily chart but if 1.3350 reak holds, then the 100 day mva (1.3300) becomes the attraction. If it holds, then we are in Al';s 1.33-1.35 weekly range.

GVI Forex Jay  15:13:14 GMT - 02/29/2012  
Low 1.3388, 2-day double bottom, blocks 1.3365. 1.3425 was former intra-day support so upside capped unless renewed. Above 1.3425 and 1.3450 comes back in play. Sums it up.

GVI Forex Jay  15:08:05 GMT - 02/27/2012  
So far a technical blueprint with the bounce off the 1.3365 low (cited in the Forex Weathermap) - would need 1.34+ to ease the retracement risk.

GVI Forex Jay  15:27:05 GMT - 02/24/2012  
High at 1.3475, close enough to my 1.3480 channel top (cited in the Forex Weathermap).

GVI Forex Jay  22:41:09 GMT - 02/23/2012  
I posted this earlier, a daily line chart and the current one shows a close above the 100 day mva. The last time it sustained a move above it was Aug 31. There was false move above it in late October so have to watch to see if it is sustained.

Resistance levels are at

1.3435 (50% of 1.4247-1.2523)
1.3469 (Dec 8 high)
1.3548 (Dec 2 high)

Other key levels are at 1.3627 = 61.8%, 1.3682 = channel top and 1.3733 = 200 day mva These are not forecasts, just pointing out key levels

On the downside, 1.3340-50 needs to hold as support for a strong BOD although support is likely as long as it stays above the 100 day mva (1.3307)

GVI Forex Jay  22:31:13 GMT - 02/23/2012  
Daily chart:

SHort term up channel vs longer-term down channel

GVI Forex Jay  17:08:44 GMT - 02/23/2012  
One of our GVI Forex pointed out last night a triangle in the one hour chart. Note the price action after the breakout to the topside.

GVI Forex Jay  16:14:56 GMT - 02/15/2012  
Euro crosses signaled something was brewing before the Greece news started circulating. I posted this on GVI Forex and it turned out to be a good indicator:

GVI Forex Jay 11:34 GMT February 15, 2012 - My Profile
Last 5 days highs

.8401 (today)

If anyone has a question on how to use crosses as a tool for spot trading (even if you don;pt trade crosses), feel free to comment here or email me directly.

GVI Forex JAy  22:36:07 GMT - 02/14/2012  
Note the daily closing chart and the 20 day mva (red). A close below it is needed to suggest the upside is done for now and to put 1.30 on the radar. The importance I place on the 20 day mva is how the eurusd turned up after closing above it on Jan 19 for the first time since Oct 31. The 20 mva comes in at 1.3113 on Wednesday.

GVI Forex JAy  13:24:35 GMT - 02/14/2012  
Trendline (and 10 day mva) at 1.3181 have been broken today but would need a solid close below to confirm. As important is 1.32 as this will help dictate what comes next, 1.30 or a retest of 1.33+. Note eurusd has been trying to establish a solid 1.32+ for the past 13 days and has yet to do so.

GVI Forex JAy  16:15:41 GMT - 02/09/2012  
See this 5 minute line chart - pretty clear that 1.33 is the level to watch

GVI Forex Jay  19:31:32 GMT - 02/02/2012  
How is this for a whipsaw zero sum day:

1.3153 (Wed close) => 1.3196 => 1.3121 => 1.3192 => 1.3085 => 1.3185 => 1.3136 => 1.3149 (last)

So -4 on the day, total pips 415

GVI Forex Jay  13:51:35 GMT - 02/02/2012  
I would be curious if anyone is using this chart and indicator (50 period on 5 minute chart) for day trading that I have been pointing out. High just now at 1.3125 bounced off the line (purple).

I would like some feedback if you want to see more of this

GVI Forex Jay  15:33:54 GMT - 02/01/2012  
For day traders, watch the 50 period 5 min mva (purple line)- it has been acting as support

GVI Forex Jay  16:43:49 GMT - 01/31/2012  
Monday effect:

The Monday low has been broken so keep an eye on the high for that day at 1.3230. This is a pattern to watch as you often see a move in the opposite direction (in this case down) as the week winds on if the high or low for the week is set on Monday, especially if it happens early on. The 1.3230 high was set at the opening of Monday trading.

This is just one pattern among many but one to keep in mind as the week winds on.

GVI Forex JAy  20:28:21 GMT - 01/30/2012  
Although I watch several time frame charts, I have been focusing on the 5 minute chart here as many traders are intra-day. I posted the 5 minute chart earlier to show how the 50 period mva was guiding the trend (down) today . I am following up to see how the mva gave support once it moved above it and the slope turned. It has been only sideways but selling did slow.

Of course there are other levels, such as my earlier call for support at 1.3076 as there is not one chart or indicator to piece the puzzle together. This is just one indicagtor I watch and helps me see when there is intra-day momentum.

I wish we could generate discussion in these threads as there remains a reluctance by many to step op=ut of the shadows and ask a question,make a comment or start a discussion. Judging from the emails I get, we know people watch what we post but we prefer not to make it a one way dialogue.

GVI Forex JAy  14:34:50 GMT - 01/30/2012  
50 period mva on a 5 minute chart (purple line) has been tracking the trend today.

Other levels:

1.3076 (as noted earlier amd checks downside while intact) and 1.3080 (50 day mva)

1.3051 = 50% of last week;'s 1.3869-1.3233 range

GVI Forex JAy  21:14:04 GMT - 01/27/2012  
I updated this chart that I posted last week and it turned out to be a signal for this move up. A good lesson is not to ignore when patterns are broken:

GVI Forex JAy 22:00:34 GMT - 01/18/2012
A key level to watch is the 20 day mva (red line) as the eurusd has not closed above it since Oct 31 (see chart). A firm close above it would fuel the retracement while a failure to do so would keep the risk pointed down. So keep an eye the close vs this level. 1.2874 = 20 day mva on Thursday. 1.2878 = last week's retracement high, making 1.2870-80 a key area.

Also 1.2903 = 61.8% of the 2012 range (1.3076-1.2623).

GVI Forex JAy  18:44:25 GMT - 01/27/2012  
Daily chart - shows the risk above 1.32

GVI Forex JAy  22:02:51 GMT - 01/26/2012  
Here is another 5 minute chart and shows the obvious breakdown level at 1.3135. This follows a failure to maintain 1.3150+ and the 50 period mva turning down after an extended sideways period.

I am just passing on how I look at the market and feel free to comment or ask questions if you want to see more of this.

GVI Forex JAy  13:17:03 GMT - 01/26/2012  
As a followup, the bounce from the 50 period mva was good for 20 pips but the move back below it has turned the market sideways. All it tells us at the moment is the momentum has slowed, which is valuable info by itself. Note a double bottom currently around 1.3135.

GVI Forex JAy  12:04:06 GMT - 01/26/2012  
Brock (and others). See this 5 min chart - it held the initial test of the 50 period mva (purple). but needs to get back above 1.3150 to restore a bid.

GVI Forex JAy  00:22:15 GMT - 01/26/2012  
50 period (purple line) 5 minute chart for Wednesday - it was a tale of two moves and slope of the line tells you when there is momentum and gives a good clue what side to trade.

It is always easier with hindsight but it is a useful indicator.

GVI Forex Jay  00:19:26 GMT - 01/26/2012  
There are two 50 levels. 50 period mva and the "50" level, e.g. 1.2950, 1.3050, 1.3150

1) The 50 period mva (5 minute) works sometimes and not others times so you have to look at the slope and how it trades vs it. I will post a chart for Wednesday and we can see how it performed.
2_ The "50" level (e.g. 1.3050) is often a place where you see stops but how it trades afterwards is often what I call a sentiment indicator.

Take Wednesday as an example;

1) early high was 1.3052 but when it failed to follow through it lost steam

2) then it broke 1.2950 (low 1.2929) but once it popped back above and held there, it took on a bid.

3) The retracement from the initial 1.3103 high tested sub-1.3050 twice, but each time with little follow through. The subsequent bounce back above restored the bid and eventually led to the run to 1.3120.

Now you can use other levels but I find my trading mood/bias swings with how eurusd trades vs. the "50" level.

Brock Thor  00:05:49 GMT - 01/26/2012  

Entry: Target: Stop:
JAY It will be interesting if price gets supported by the "50" ,especially by busy trading hours tomorrow and or Friday.
I have printed your posts and charts to keep an eye out.
Right now price is at 1.3102
The "50"SMA 15min chart is at 1.3034.
Be interesting to see if the price bounces off that "50" or dances around it.
My feel is it becomes support.

GVI Forex JAy  20:43:33 GMT - 01/25/2012  
I posted this awhile ago on GVI Forex

Daily chart - 50 day mva (purple line), 1.3197 (suggests 1.32) and 100 day mva (green line) are key levels on top. Would need to establish above the prior high at 1.3076 to encourage a run at these levels. Below 1.3045-50 would ease the risk.

GVI Forex JAy  19:38:38 GMT - 01/25/2012  
Note the 5 minute chart and the 1,3050 ("50") level. The retreat found support around 1.3045 and bounce back above 1.3050 kept a bid. Keep an eye on it to set aq bias while it trades 1.30-1.31.

GVI Forex Jay  17:41:51 GMT - 01/25/2012  
Now watch 1.3050 on top as it blocks the upside.

Brock Thor  17:36:54 GMT - 01/25/2012  

Entry: Target: Stop:
Jay your "50" is interesting to me and plotted in purple on my charts.
I will spend some time with this.

GVI Forex Jay  15:14:07 GMT - 01/25/2012  
fwiw 1.2950 ("50") remains pivotal, support below it on the post-data dip

One reason for posting in this thread is for a longer shelf life but also for discussion so please feel free to comment or ask a question.,

GVI Forex Jay  12:22:20 GMT - 01/25/2012  
Note how the "50" level has been a factor today (scroll below to see a post on this).

GVI Forex Jay  00:02:06 GMT - 01/25/2012  
For those using short-term charts, the 5 min 50 period mva (purple line) has been a good indicator giving support since the bounce off the low in the US-Europe session. Thus one to watch as the market sets up for the new day.

GVI Forex Jay  17:22:27 GMT - 01/24/2012  
I posted this earlier on GVI Forex

I have found the "50" level to often act as a bias indicator, especially for the eurusd and when there are no obvious support or resistance levels nearby. Note how 1.2950 (low 1.2953) held and helped check the downside. Notice how your emotions shift when eurusd trades above or below the "50" level when the focus is not on a big figure. .

GVI Forex Jay 14:11 GMT January 24, 2012 - My Profile
Forex Weathermap - EURUSD: Reply
Looks like 1.2950 ("50" level). is pivotal while within 1.29-1.30 (suggests support while above it, vice versa below)....

GVI Forex Jay  13:50:25 GMT - 01/24/2012  
1.2958 = 23.6% of 1.2623-1.3062 (1.2894 = 38.2%)

GVI Forex JAy  15:02:36 GMT - 01/20/2012  
One hour chart has worked well this week so keep an eye on the uptrendline.

Currently it appears that 1.29 is setting the day bias but most of the focus has been on crosses where gbp and aud have been getting the flows.

Event/headline risk is news on the Greek PSI talks. Headline (agreement) could come out later today or over the weekend.

GVI Forex JAy  22:00:34 GMT - 01/18/2012  
A key level to watch is the 20 day mva (red line) as the eurusd has not closed above it since Oct 31 (see chart). A firm close above it would fuel the retracement while a failure to do so would keep the risk pointed down. So keep an eye the close vs this level. 1.2874 = 20 day mva on Thursday. 1.2878 = last week's retracement high, making 1.2870-80 a key area.

Also 1.2903 = 61.8% of the 2012 range (1.3076-1.2623).

GVI Forex Jay  14:12:07 GMT - 01/18/2012  
Why I said 1.28 is clearly the level that will set the tone going forwards.

1) It is one of my pivotal big figures that also has a pyschological component.

2) eurusd has traded either side of 1.28 in 6 out of the past 8 days, only one close above on Jan 12.

GVI Forex JAy  11:41:36 GMT - 01/18/2012  
4 hour 2012 trendline broken but 100 period mva (green line) so far capping upside.

GVI Forex JAy  18:07:19 GMT - 01/17/2012  
EURUSD 1 hour chart - note 2012 trendline

GVI Forex JAy  18:06:28 GMT - 01/17/2012  
EURUSD 4 hour chart - note 2012 trebdline

GVI Forex JAy  18:05:45 GMT - 01/17/2012  
Posting some charts:

EURUSD daily - note channel bottom, steep trendline, 20 day mva (red line)

GVI Forex JAy  14:46:18 GMT - 01/15/2012  
EURUSD daily chart:

Note the 20 day mva (red line) has been acting like a trendline. I show a channel bottom around Friday's 1.2623 low.

See the outlook for Monday and a focus for the week ahead on

Jay Meisler's Forex Weathermap

GVI Forex Jay  20:42:51 GMT - 01/09/2012  
Monday-Friday effect:

I posted this on GVI Forex yesterday. Adding to the intrigue is that in 2011 the low for the year (until 2 days before the end of the year when a new low was marginally set) was set on the first Monday of trading (in the 2nd week of the year), same as today.

GVI Forex Jay 23:04 GMT January 8, 2012
Monday's range: Reply
Monday's range will be important as last week the high for the week was set Tuesday (which was the first real day of the week so the equivalent of a Monday) and pressure developed the opposite direction as the week wound on.

This week we will be watching to see if the low for the week is set on Monday. This is the best hope for a reprieve from a clear risk on the downside. A new low to start the week should not be a surprise.

GVI Forex JAy  18:24:07 GMT - 01/05/2012  
Monthly chart - 1.1878 is the key target

That would be ironic as it is around the level where the eurusd was launched on Jan 1, 1999 and would be the ultimate zero sum game.

This seems a long way off but there are some forecasts calling for 1.20.

John called for 1.15-1.20 as a risk in his 1H2012 forex outlook in our Jay newsletter.

GVI Forex Jay  15:36:25 GMT - 01/04/2012  
Look at euro crosses for a clue to why eurusd is getting battered. All crosses except eurchf.

GVI Forex Jay  15:43:36 GMT - 01/03/2012  
This is from my Forex Weathermap posted earlier. Note 1.3067 has so far capped the upside.

For today, key area is 1.3090-95, 1.3093 = 20 day mva (red line) and 1.3095 is last week's high. Key chart resistance is 1.3197. 1.3067 = 61.8% of 1.3197-1.2856

GVI Forex JAy  15:27:14 GMT - 12/29/2011  
Note the daily channel bottom (1.2961), similar to the weekly channel bottom (1.2855) held -- low was 1.2858

GVI Forex JAy  21:55:40 GMT - 12/28/2011  
Weekly chart - channel bottom 1.2855

GVI Forex JAy  21:17:06 GMT - 12/28/2011  
Now we have a normal range for the last week of the year. The timing of the moves today was the surprise as those few trading were lulled into complacency.

See the daily eurusd chart:;

Major support is the 2011 low at 1.2875 set in January and the daily channel bottom at 1.2681 on Thursday. Back above 1.2950+ is needed to slow the risk but only a solid 1.30+ negates it.

Key event risk on Thursday is the Italian bond auctions.

GVI Forex Jay  12:37:29 GMT - 12/28/2011  

This is always a thin week but generally one that sees movement as it sets up for the coming year.

This week (so far) 65 pips
2010 351 pips
2009 184 pips
2009 523 pips
2007 358 pips
2006 115 pips
2005 154 pips

GVI Forex Jay  21:05:52 GMT - 12/27/2011  
Last 6 days closes have been between 1.3038-76
12/20/2011	1.3076
12/21/2011	1.3043
12/22/2011	1.3051
12/23/2011	1.3038
12/26/2011	1.3059
12/27/2011	1.3066

GVI Forex JAy  16:27:41 GMT - 12/22/2011  
Daily eurusd chart -- note the trend

GVI Forex Jay  15:55:54 GMT - 12/22/2011  
History lesson:

One welcome change with electronic trading is that the spreads are decent even though liquidity is thin but not as bad as it used to be. Before electronic trading spreads would wide and many banks would stop quoting except for customers at this time of year.

With that said be wary of the US afternoon, which turns very thin once Europe goes home at this time of year.

GVI Forex  Jay  13:50:52 GMT - 12/22/2011  
I was sent this and worth reposting:

After the initial euphoria of the headline figure on yesterday’s LTRO, it seems markets are unconvinced that banks will use the cheap funding to buy sovereign product. So now, Christmas lull setting in. Trading floor is thinning out and ranges o/n have been meek. Every time we get a bit of a risk rally, we get a rumour of a French downgrade to knock things back. Forward markets are as thin as we have seen them through a holiday season.

GVI Forex Jay  00:25:14 GMT - 12/21/2011  
200 hour mva currently at 1.3118 - tested again

GVI Forex JAy  15:09:03 GMT - 12/20/2011  
One hour chart - yellow line is 200 hour mva

GVI Forex Jay  13:33:55 GMT - 12/20/2011  
There is a key event risk tomorrow when the ECB announces the results of its 3 year LTRO (Long-Term Repo Operations). RTRS reported expectations of EUR250 bln but other estimates are calling for EUR400-500 bln or higher. Talk is banks will use some of the funds to buy peripheral debt (carry trades) and then use the bonds as collateral with the ECB. This article, posted in our blog on Friday, suggests peripheral bond yields could fall sharply as a result. If the higher estimates pan out, then it could lead to a risk on mood in thin pre-XMAS trading.

ECB in Unholy Alliance with EZ Banks - lower EZ periphery bond yields next week (FXA)

Another event risk is each US afternoon where a French downgrade continues to loom as a cloud. Should one occur today, it would not be a surprise and likely see bids emerge on any knee jerk reaction as long as eurusd stays above 1.30. The risk of a downgrade has been a factor that has been weighing on the euro among other factors.

GVI Forex JAy  16:37:47 GMT - 12/16/2011  
I am posting this chart (above) and posts made on GVI Forex (below) to show how I look at the market amd a chart to illustrate it. It rarely works like a blueprint but this one worked out as per plan.

If you want some more insight on this, send me an EMAIL

GVI Forex Jay 13:40 GMT December 16, 2011 - My Profile
Forex Weathermap - EURUSD: Reply
Double top at 1.3084

GVI Forex Jay 13:49 GMT December 16, 2011 - My Profile
Forex Weathermap - EURUSD: Reply
Triple top now

GVI Forex Jay 13:55 GMT December 16, 2011 - My Profile
Forex Weathermap - EURUSD: Reply
Thinking logically no one is going to want to be long euros into the US afternoon given the risk of an S&P downgrade announcement. This suggests a limit on the upside unless liquidating flows increase and that would likely be driven by price action. With that said, 1.3050 now pivotal on the dow3nside in keeping a retracement risk.

GVI Forex john 14:03 GMT December 16, 2011
Forex Weathermap - EURUSD: Reply
Must be some stops below 1.3062 intermediate low?

GVI Forex john 14:07 GMT December 16, 2011 - My Profile
Forex Weathermap - EURUSD: Reply
ran those stops

GVI Forex Jay 14:21 GMT December 16, 2011 - My Profile
Forex Weathermap - EURUSD: Reply
1.3050 needs to hold to keep a bid.

Below it support is at 1.3041.

Below 1.3041 key intra-day support is 1.3019.

GVI Forex Jay 14:55 GMT December 16, 2011 - My Profile
Forex Weathermap - EURUSD: Reply
Low just now was at 1.3020.

GVI Forex Jay 15:02 GMT December 16, 2011 - My Profile
Forex Weathermap - EURUSD: Reply
Correct that - low came in at 1.3019

Nice when it works like intended.

GVI Forex JAy  18:19:49 GMT - 12/15/2011  
eurusd 1 hour trendline was nicked today. If market ranges around 1.30, this line could be broken by attrition, which would be less of an indicator than if it was broken by a move up and through it.

GVI Forex Jay  14:46:23 GMT - 12/15/2011  
From our FX Chart points

Note R1 = 1.3050 vs. 1.30495 high today

Faily pivot = 1.2997

FX Chart points

GVI Forex JAy  17:02:06 GMT - 12/13/2011  
Weekly chart --- channel bottom is 1.2917.

1.3144 is clearly pivotal on top as market will stay in a selkl mdoe while below it.

GVI Forex JAy  16:54:16 GMT - 12/13/2011  
One picture says a thousand words.

GVI Forex JAy  13:37:27 GMT - 12/13/2011  
Note the one hour trendline. Steep but checked the upside today so worth keeping an eye on.

GVI Forex Jay  13:15:20 GMT - 12/13/2011  
I posted this in the Forex Weathermap and so far has worked out.

For today, it looks like we may see some consolidation and 2-way flow ahead of the FOMC but recent history has been lack of follow through on esrly eurusd spikes ahead of the US open.

GVI Forex JAy  18:46:51 GMT - 12/12/2011  
You can use just about any time frame chart and all will show 1.3144 as key support. I posted the weekly chart as it shows levels beyond it. Otherwise, 1.3210 is a key resistance but 1.3200 will set the bias going forwards.

Market is in a scramble mode as those waiting for a year end short squeeze or some sideways action have been forced to consider a breadown on the downside.

GVI Forex JAy  13:39:45 GMT - 12/09/2011  
The pattern has been for these mini blowout stop driven headline rallies to fizzle as buying dries up once the news is fully digested. Tricky on a Friday, let alone a thin December Friday as there is always a headline risk and why I suggested chop if it stays within 1.3350-1.3450 although I should be talking about 1.33-1.34, which is what argues to stay nimble as SF pointed out earlier.

See the one hour chart (above) that illustrates this point.

THis post is a reprint from

GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay  18:44:03 GMT - 12/07/2011  
2nd day in a row where the Weathermap's 1.3350-1.3450 no man's land range proved to be a good one. US session range has so far been 1.3351-1.3426. Current pattern is 1.34 has printed 4 days in a row and logic suggests it should be 5 days on Thursday, If not it would send a signal.

Daily Forex WeatherMap - by Jay Meisler
Dec 7, 2011 EURUSD (Current rate: 1.3378, O/N Range 1.3453--1.3370)

Bias: No change to overall bias, which is negative while below 1.35 but still in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the EU summit and ECB meeting. Similar to yesterday, treat 1.3350-1.3450 as a no man's land range (i.e. 2-way flow) where 1.34 sets the bias although failure at the upper end today has put risk on downside.

Expected Range: 1.3320-1.3440

Feel free to comment

GVI Forex Jay  21:16:39 GMT - 12/06/2011  
EURUSD settling around 1.34 and the WeatherMap's 1.3350-1.3450 no man's land range turned out to be a good guide. US session range was 1.3360-1.3420.

Daily Forex WeatherMap - by Jay Meisler
Dec 5, 2011 EURUSD (Current rate: 1.3405, O/N Range 1.3427--1.3333)

Bias: Overall negative while below 1.35 but I still see this as a week where it is hard to justify big bets. Treat 1.3350-1.3450 as a no man's land range (i.e. 2-way flow) where 1.34 sets the bias.

Expected Range: 1.3330-1.3480

GVI Forex JAy  22:33:52 GMT - 12/05/2011  
Low today held the 200 hour mva (yellow line) and is an indicator to watch going forwards -- currently at 1.3374

GVI Forex Jay  13:43:26 GMT - 11/29/2011  
1.3298 = 61,8% of 1.3210-1.3441

GVI Forex JAy  14:22:08 GMT - 11/24/2011  
See weekly eurusd chart - key support levels are clear

GVI Forex Jay  12:26:11 GMT - 11/24/2011  
I posted this on GVI Forex last night and pretty good levels as 1.3411 has been the high. Market would need to renew 1.3420-50 to put 1.35 in play again. Otherwise market stays in a sell on blips mode.

GVI Forex Jay 03:01 GMT November 24, 2011 - My Profile
Market: Reply
Key level is at 1.3420-32 (1.3432 = 38.2% of 1.3614-1.3320)

US session high was 1.3411 on Wed

This was also posted by a GVI Member:

Heading into Thanksgiving Weekend, I think its worth noting that the pair has not had a weekly close below 1.3340 (not even when it traded 1.3145 intraweek) since the first fortnight of January. I see that as a first sign (confirmed only on Friday's close) of the liquidating nature of these year-end markets...

GVI Forex JAy  20:28:04 GMT - 11/22/2011  
Daily chart shows the broader trend with lower highs/lower lows since the 1.4247 retracement high although still within the broad range bounded by the 1.3144 low. 1.3420-1.3614 are the key levels for the local range where 1.35 has printed 6 days in a row and will likely extend it to 7 on Thursday. Feel free to comment.

GVI Forex JAy  16:34:21 GMT - 11/22/2011  
EURUSD lost some of its cross support when EURGBP ran into resistance and came off its high. Note these posts on GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay 16:30:01 GMT - 11/22/2011
Daily chart - 50 day mva is the purple line

Mtl JP 15:36:46 GMT - 11/22/2011
yes, I try to keep my signals simple: 9, 21, 50, 100, 200dmas.
I am just traditional in these matters, so please pardon me....
GVI Forex Jay 15:27:07 GMT - 11/22/2011
JP, I know you place importance on the 50 day mva and it worked great capping the eurgbp upside today.

GVI Forex Jay 14:22:59 GMT - 11/22/2011
eurgbp high was .86645, just below the 50 day mva posted earlier.

GVI Forex Jay 13:25:07 GMT - 11/22/2011
0.8666 = 50 day mva

GVI Forex JAy  13:23:20 GMT - 11/18/2011  
High at 1.3614 bounced off the one hour trendline and just below the 50% level (see previous post and Forex Weathermap).

GVI Forex JAy  12:06:37 GMT - 11/18/2011  
One hour chart updated as market performs as per the risk noted in the Forex Weathermap. My vote for stop entries (worked nicely this time) as market moved through 1.3549 as I was posted the Weathermap. Note the 200 hour mva, trendline and 50% level above 1.36. High so far 1.36. Now needs to hold 1.3550 to maintain a bid and retracement risk in what remains a headline driven market.

GVI Forex JAy  13:32:34 GMT - 11/17/2011  
It seems some are looking for a short squeeze. See one hour chart, closest indicator is 100 hour mva, currently 1.3580. The 1.35 level is clearly the bias setter.

GVI Forex JAy  15:01:53 GMT - 11/14/2011  
Watching the 5 minute chart as the trendline (currently 1.3655) has been checking the upside. Note earlier chatter of bids above 1.36 but trades soft while below 1.3650.

Reprint from GVI Forex

GVI Forex JAy  17:50:16 GMT - 11/10/2011  
One hour chart -- levels to watch:

1.3608 (closing basis)

Note retracements for 1.3858-1.3483,

1.3671 = 50%
1.3715 = 61.8%

On downside,

1.3550 is important to keep the focus from

1.3483 = Thursday low

GVI Forex Jay  14:01:19 GMT - 11/10/2011  
Currently 1.3650 ("50" level) is intra-day resistance. To put the price action in perspective,

Using 1.3858-1.3483,

1.3671 = 50%
1.3715 = 61.8%

GVI Forex Jay  00:34:31 GMT - 11/10/2011  
As posted in today's Forex Weathermap:

Nov 9, 2011 EURUSD (Current rate: 1.3660)
Bias: Negative while below 1.38 (printed for 7th day in a row) but would need a firm break of 1.3608 to put the downtrend in charge again.

So 1.3608 is the level on top and while below it, the downtrend takes over, 1.3500 is the pivotal psychological level (will it be defended?) but otherwise charts show little until 1.3240 and 1.3144.

GVI Forex JAy  20:03:56 GMT - 11/09/2011  
Daily chart -- 1.3608 is the key level on top, 1.3500 (psycholoigical) but little on charts below 1.3608 other than 1.3240 and the key 1,3144 low.

While above 1.3500, 1.3550 is important as a bias setter.

GVI Forex Jay  13:04:00 GMT - 11/09/2011  
I stored this post from the FF yesterday and it turned out to be a good one:

nyc ws 17:02 GMT November 8, 2011
gold in euro terms: Reply
Gartman on CNBC says watch gold in terms of euro. When that is rising it suggests not to expect good news.

GVI Forex JAy  16:54:07 GMT - 11/08/2011  
Still within the 100 and 200 4 hour mvas after bouncing off the 100 period mva (green) earlier (see previous post).

GVI Forex JAy  13:19:17 GMT - 11/08/2011  
EURUSD just traded at 1.38 (high 1.3803), making it 6 days in a row that this level has printed. These type of consolidation/congestion patterns usually see a narrowing range and then a directional move once broken.

In the meantime, look at the 4 hour chart posted above, where the range is currently trapped between the 200 (yellow) and 100 (green) period mvas.

GVI Forex Jay  14:41:05 GMT - 10/31/2011  
BB, it is good that you are asking questions, even very basic ones and i wish more traders would do the same. With that said, I suggest you need to do some homework and get the basics down to trade these markets. See replies below:

Bulverde BB 14:18 GMT October 31, 2011
Forex Weathermap - EURUSD: Reply
Can you explain this in more detail?

(e.g. 4 hour trendline = currently 1.3945, steep daily upchannel = 1.3935, 200 hour mva = currently 1.3920). -- I was pointing out potential support below the market which if holds, keeps the focus on 1.40+ but if broken would change the technical picture. What I do is look for technical indicators that are tracking a move and take notice if they change as technical traders will pay notice and react accordingly,=. Note I am not a pure technical trader and take a hybrid approach.

Using 1.3796=1.4247, 1.3868 = 61,8% IThis is th4e 61.8% retracement of the last leg up for 1.3796. Why did I use 1.3796? It is an intermediate low - low surrounded by higher highs on both sides and followed by a new high for the move. E wavers may use it for other reasons but will use the same level. I use retracements as just one tool, others may use it differently but I do pay notice if one of these levels hold or get firmly broken.

Also, I see the term "Cable", what is that? cable = British Pound = sterling


GVI Forex Jay  14:31:26 GMT - 10/25/2011  
This was posted earlier on GVI Forex and worth a repost given today's headline driven volatility.

Minneapolis DRS2 03:38 GMT October 25, 2011 - My Profile
euro: Reply
The only real solution I have found in this situation is to use very, very tight stops when placing my trades. I have found all too often that once a trade goes the wrong way, it will QUICKLY move against me.

There is simply too much volatility...lots of players placing bets in both directions, price swinging back and forth. Right now for example, EUR/USD price dropped from 1.3920 or so down to 1.3890, and then right back up to 1.3920...a 30-pip bounce. The way these stop-clearing moves have worked lately, we could be at 1.3950 quite soon...and then back to 1.3920.

GOT PK  15:42:29 GMT - 10/24/2011  
fits my "outbreak-from-triangle" scenario.

GVI Forex Jay  15:36:53 GMT - 10/24/2011  
For those who did not read or would like to see again my article on Trading Patterns, see our September newsletter by clicking the link below:

Thoughts From the Forex Trenches -- Trading Patterns

GVI Forex JAy  15:21:46 GMT - 10/24/2011  
For those who have followed me, I have often referred to looking for trading patterns. One of those I watch closely and have been mentioning daily is when a currency consolidates around a big figure, especially what I call a pivotal level ending in 0, 2, 5, or 8.

As I have been noting, the current pattern has been the eurusd consolidation around 1.38 where this pivotal level has traded 8 days in a row coming into today. It appears as of this writing that this pattern will be broken today (low has been 1.3821). As I have been noting, the longer this pattern goes on, the greater the risk of a directional move once broken.

There are exceptions like in any trading pattern but as long as 1.38+ trades now, it will have the risk on the upside. I put aside my feelings on the EZ bailout soap opera and just trying to be objective by not fighting the tape.

To put price action in perspective, 1.4012 = 61.8% of 1.4548-1.3144

See daily chart posted above.

GVI Forex JAy  12:17:42 GMT - 10/23/2011  
Should eurusd 1.3936 be firmly taken out, then converging 100 and 200 day mva come into play.

Current pattern: 1.38 has traded 8 days in a row
Key focus to start the week: 1.39, which capped the upside Friday and blocks key levels at 1.3914 and 1.3936.

I am not sure how much technicals matter (technicians will argue otherwise) as the European debt saga plays itself out this week, Wednesday being the key day.

GVI Forex Jay  18:48:24 GMT - 10/20/2011  
I posted this earlier on GVI Forex and we are back in no man's land. Note the mood change when back above 1.3725 although 1.3750 is more important in setting the tone.

GVI Forex Jay 17:52 GMT October 20, 2011 - My Profile
Trade Talk - EURUSD: Reply
Worth repeating (tone turned when 1.3725+ but 1.3750 more important as a bias setter):

GVI Forex Jay 15:49 GMT October 20, 2011 - My Profile
Trade Talk - EURUSD: Reply
Taking a step back and trying to be objective, what has worked this week has been to sell above 1.38 and buy below 1.37 although preference has been the former. Makes 1.37-1.38 sort of a no man's land. Stay bearish as long as below 1.3725.

GVI Forex  14:23:21 GMT - 10/19/2011  
EURUSD currently trapped between 20 day (red line) and 50 day (purple line) mvas. Broad down channel is primary trend, minor uptrendline off the low (reflects loss of momentum). 1.38 proving to be a strong attraction, printed 6 days in a row and the longer the pattern persists, the greater the risk of a directional move once broken.

The rest of the week will be spent watching the wires for the latest rumor, leak, unconfirmed report, unnamed official's comment, etc. Hard to suggest big bets ahead of the weekend and EU summit.

GVI Forex  17:39:05 GMT - 10/18/2011  
1 hour chart (yellow line is the 200 hour mva - cited earlier)

Shenzhen JW  09:21:43 GMT - 10/11/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
Study here!


GVI Forex Jay  23:52:39 GMT - 10/10/2011  
GVI Forex Jay 21:57 GMT October 10, 2011 - My Profile
eur: Reply
I guess 300+ pips in one day was more than the market could handle on a hint of a bank plan with no details. Test will be where bids come in on dips as it needs to stay above 1.35 to maintain a BOD bias, stronger bias as long as it stays above the 20 day mva.

Looking at the upside,

1.3700 (rumored options barrier - tku Gaza)
1.3799 = key Sept 21 high
1.3846 = 50% of 1.4548 - 1.3144
1,3936 = key Sept 15 high
1.4012 = 61.8%

Downside is harder to call as the sharp ride up Monday leaves little in the way of obvious supports.

1.36 saw a brief pause so that is the first level I show.
1.3554 = 20 day mva

This suggests support between 1.3550-00 to keep the focus tilted up.

Wild card is the Slovakia vote on EFSF as I have no clue how hard the market would react if it was voted down. They must have called in professional wrestlers to teach how to twist arms as the political pressure to vote yes must be enormous.

Posted earlier on GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay  13:40:04 GMT - 10/06/2011  
Very choppy market today but it has performed technically:

From my earlier Forex Weathermap update (low has been 1.3241):

Using 1.3144-1.3398, 1.3301 (38.2%), 1.3271 (50%), 1.3241 (61.8%)

GVI Forex Jay  16:58:13 GMT - 10/04/2011  
I posted this earlier in the Forex Weathermap update:

Given the pace of the drop, there is always the risk of some retracement but market will stay bearish unless 1.3361 (last week's low is renewed).

GVI Forex  11:16:10 GMT - 10/03/2011  
I posted this last night on GVI Forex and have updated the daily chart to incorporate the new low at 1.3313:

Question is whether market opens with a gap through the 1.3361 low. See chart for key chart levels

1.3361 = recent low
1.3332 = channel bottom
1.3200 (pivotal big fig)
1.3047 = 61.8%
1.3000 (major pivotal big fig)
1.2875 = 2011 low

As I noted in our newsletter, first week of a new quarter is often characterized by false starts and whipsaws so will be on guard. Low for the week the past two weeks has been on a Monday.

Dillon AL  15:20:43 GMT - 09/30/2011  
Finland voted on the EFSF and the market popped up which was a fade. the German scenario was the same
Hope that helps

Bulverde BB  15:12:45 GMT - 09/30/2011  
I'm sorry, but I'm not familiar with a Finnish trade. Can you explain?

GVI Forex John  11:30:26 GMT - 09/29/2011  
Jay made a great call yesterday on GVI Forex recommending a EURUSD sale on the German vote.

GVI Forex Jay 19:16 GMT September 28, 2011 - My Profile
eur: Reply
What worked for me today was the Finnish vote for EFSF2 and selling a pop on it.

Alot depends on where eurusd is trading tomorrow when Germany votes but with a yes expected, a repeat of the Finnish trade is my only thought at the moment should it see a similar reaction.

GVI Forex Jay  21:52:30 GMT - 09/28/2011  
My view going by the charts:

1) Stay bearish as long as there are lower highs/lower lows. 1.3361/1,3799 the current extremes. For today's 1.3690 higbh to become significant, a new low would need to be made.

2) 1.35 will remain pivotal even after the 4 day pattern around it was broken today. Downside limited while above it but again on the radar and at risk after the failure to establish 1.36+

3) Headline roulette will continue to drive these markets

GVI Forex Jay  22:19:44 GMT - 09/27/2011  
The quick eurusd retreat leaves it in limbo but FIBOS offer some interesting levels, spoecifically the 38.2% around 1.3550.

FIBOS 1.3361-1.3668

1.3551 = 38.2%
1.3515 = 50%
1.3478 = 61.8%

Reminder, there is a 4 day pattern around 1.35 coming into Wednesday that is intact until/unless broken. It would be a kick in the butt if 1.35 prints for a 5th day as that would be a bearish sign. Watch 1,3550 on the downside as that blocks 1.35 coming on the radar again.

GVI Forex  Jay  20:05:25 GMT - 09/26/2011  
The choppy trading today is mind boggling, even to the most seasoned trader. By my calculation, eurusd traded back and forth for a total of 838 points from top to bottom and then again and again as the range narrowed. To have those type of swings and close +9 is for the record books and by any measure is the definition of a whipsaw day. I am not sure what it means technically and would appreciate some feedback on it. There was a tug-of-war between firmer stocks and fx trying to pull the other way and stocks won in this risk on/risk off battle.

Watch 1,35 on Tuesday, which has traded 3 days in a row and will set the tone going forwards.

Recap (838 pips):

1.3585 => 1.3362 => 1.3542 => 1.3414 -> 1.3530 -> 1.3425 => 1.3500 => 1.3511 close (+9)

GVI Forex  13:37:00 GMT - 09/25/2011  
EURUSD weekly chart (click on it once opened to enlarge)

GVI Forex Jay  00:16:16 GMT - 09/23/2011  
Event risk warning proved to be a good one.

20:12 (EU) French Fin Min to hold a press conference at 21:45ET (01:45GMT)


GVI Forex Jay  21:34:17 GMT - 09/22/2011  
It still pays to be wary but this suggests BRICS are not coming to the rescue (from GVI Forex):

GVI Forex john 21:03 GMT September 22, 2011

GVI Forex Jay  20:59:08 GMT - 09/22/2011  

From FXA:

09/22/11 REUTERS FXAFX1, WWW.FXA.COM, BLOOMBERG FXAR 860-767-9102 [email protected]

[20.15/16.15] So here is my blue sky effort at what G7-20 should do ahead of Asia open. 1) Buy euros across G20 with an intent to buy EZ sovereign debt - G7 plus G20 (China, India and Brazil - okay Russia too). 2) ECB, BOE, BOC, RBA, Norges Bank, Riksbank and any other DM without ZIRP cut rates. 3) European gvts announce recap plans for the big and troubled banks (Italy and France especially). 4) IMF establishes a SIV to buy EZ debt and lend to EZ gvts not in crisis but need funds to recapitalize banks. OKAY WT this is not cure, just can kicking exercise, but one that buys more time than probably most of us would be willing to admit. Also not saying it will happen...chances are it won't. But something is likely at the weekend and time to prepare and have helmets and MRE's ready as nearing expiration date on the European Keystone Kops. Expect small but be prepared for big weekend news.

David Gilmore

GVI Forex Jay  15:58:00 GMT - 09/21/2011  
I have written about how to use crosses to give a clue to what flows are driving the spot market. Today was a prime example and one look at euro crosses (firmer) will explain what is going on (it started with a firmer eurgbp after the BOE minutes).

I can't explain why the euro is being bought this way ahead of the FOMC, especially with stocks down, but thin liquidity is probably exaggerating.

I would be glad to elaborate and discuss this further so post any questions or comments.

GVI Forex Jay  19:42:05 GMT - 09/20/2011  
One more day until the FOMC decision and eurusd is currently around where it opened the week when it gapped down to a 1.3665 low Sunday night (Monday morning in Asia). So it has turned into much ado about nothing the first two days of the week after stops were run on both sides so a little for both bulls and bears or a little pain for each if stopped.

As for the bear side, they will point to Tuesday where the eurusd spike higher on the rumor that the SNB would raise the eurchf floor to 1.25 came close to filling the gap to 1.3752.

On the downside, as I wrote in my article earlier, sub-1.36 was tested for the 5th time in 7 days and found support. Note there are rumors of RKO (reverse knockout barriers) between 1.3500-1.3590, which were apparently defended but tempting if the market sniffs blood.

This sets the stage for FOMC day and seems a risk of disappointment barring QE3, which is a long shot, if the Fed acts as expected (e.g. Operation Twist). In any case, the market will move post-FOMC but likely stay in a range ahead of it.

GVI Forex  13:58:04 GMT - 09/19/2011  
One hour chart shows more in terms of technical levels than 1.36-1.37

So far 1.3599 (76.4% as noted earlier) checked downside but only 1.3650+ would ease the risk to the 1.3495 low

GVI Forex  13:54:15 GMT - 09/15/2011  
DC (on GVI Forex pointed out the one hour trendline - see chart above

melbourne DC 13:44 GMT September 15, 2011
Coordinated repo: Reply
eurusd spike was capped @ hourly downtrend 1.3935 on my chart .

GVI Forex Jay  12:25:29 GMT - 09/15/2011  
Ardent, our charts seem to be in sync now.

GVI Forex Jay  12:24:16 GMT - 09/15/2011  
I posted this Forex Weathermap last night on GVI Forex

This was last night's Weathermap and turned out to work out well. Note the bias when 1.3700 held 9low 1.3703). 1.3800 and 1.3750 replace 1.3700 and 1.3650 as pivotal levels.

Daily Forex WeatherMap - by Jay Meisler
Sept 15, 2011 EURUSD (Current rate: 1.3746)
Bias: Overall still DOWN while below 1.3835 but momentum has slowed and 2-way risk continues while within 1.35-1.38. Within this range eurusd is likely to find support on dips while above 1.3650, stronger if 1.37+ trades. Similarly, upside is capped unless 1.3800-35 is firmly taken out. Expected range: 1.3675-1.3795

Medan Ardent  03:54:24 GMT - 09/15/2011  
Check the chart i posted

Medan Ardent  03:38:47 GMT - 09/15/2011  
Your chart showed false break trend line. My chart not showed the false break trend line.

Medan Ardent  03:36:35 GMT - 09/15/2011  
yes, I can see the different. Odd.

GVI Forex  17:03:15 GMT - 09/14/2011  
This is what I show for the one hour.

Medan Ardent  16:40:15 GMT - 09/14/2011  
1 hour chart

GVI Forex Jay  16:16:01 GMT - 09/14/2011  
Ardent, what time period is that chart?

Medan Ardent  16:10:31 GMT - 09/14/2011  
The trend line in my chart not break yet. Its different from you chart.

GVI Forex  15:17:29 GMT - 09/14/2011  
As a followup, note 5 min chart and trendline break in this headline whipsaw session. Next up is the Merkel/Sarkozy/Greece conference call - watch for headlines.

GVI Forex  15:03:18 GMT - 09/14/2011  
hk ooozmeeh posted a 4 hour chart on the FF showing a bear flag and i am posting a simiular chart here as it has a longer shelf life.

GVI Forex  14:49:19 GMT - 09/14/2011  
On a choppy day like this, using short-term charts but hard to post on the fly. Note the 5 minute trendline and watch it going forwards. Just held at 1.37 for a 30+ pip dip.

GVI Forex  17:19:30 GMT - 09/13/2011  
One hour trendline drawn off 1.4275 currently around 1.3760 (note green line = 100 hour mva). 1.3795 = 38.2% of 1.4275-1.3499

GVI Forex  12:39:21 GMT - 09/13/2011  
Note how the 72 hour mva capped the upside - this is an indicator to watch going forwards

GVI Forex Jay  12:15:25 GMT - 09/13/2011  
I posted this in my Forex Weathermap report (see the Forex Forum) and the sharp eurusd dip in the Merkel-Sarkozy no annlouncement is an example of what I was sayiong:

The problem calling for a euro rebound, even just a technical one, is that it could easily be undone by a negative headline or comment by an innocuous official. This week the sword hanging over the euro is the possible Moodys downgrade of French banks although such has to be widely discounted as well as both Greece and Italy in the spotlight.

eu pat  16:30:58 GMT - 09/12/2011  
i have channel on daily chart...i have drawn channel from 2 of may high through 17 of august high...this channel was false broken up on 29 and30 of august.i wrote here about this situation on 30.8 evening a few minutes after Bernanke:

yes,every datas are bad or worse...sentiment is very bad, but market again has heard only what wants:dovish fed new money will come soon...i am short from yesterday and will hold to tomorow"s bad datas ...then i will see what about this false eufory...but its difficult to be a bearish in this time!

so, i played on false break at this time...but finish so early
but what now?it looks like consolidation ...any other opinion?

GVI Forex  15:34:41 GMT - 09/12/2011  
Pat, here is a daily bar chart with the channel drawn

eu pat  15:03:26 GMT - 09/12/2011  
hopefully,now it"s better..

GVI Forex Jay  14:49:20 GMT - 09/12/2011  
Pat, nice trade but having trouble duplicating your chart - I showed the daily channel around 1.3595 using a daily bar chart.

eu pat  14:43:16 GMT - 09/12/2011  
hi, comiing from waiting oder long at 1,3520 was closed at limit 1,3667...oder was at bottom of red chanell, witch i have drawn attention on friday as possible target...

GVI Forex Jay  13:43:56 GMT - 09/12/2011  
I was asked what I mean by bias:

It is more emotional than technical - test it out seeing how you feel about the tone of say the eur/usd when it trades above 1.3650 and below it. This usually sees a buy the dip (when above) and sell the blip (while below) "50" bias but other factors have to be taken into account as well (trend, range, etc). Once a currency bottoms or tops, the "50" level can have a magnetic pull but again that depends on the type of market you are in. It works best when a market is consolidating between two big figures (e.g. 1.36-1.37).

By the way, 1.3679 held and is the intra-day high.

GVI Forex Jay  13:13:33 GMT - 09/12/2011  
High was 1,3679 so acting technically - 1.3650 sets the bias while within 1.36-1.37

GVI Forex Jay  12:39:29 GMT - 09/12/2011  
As posted on GVI Foirex

1.3679 = 23.6% of 1.4275-1.3495

GVI Forex  12:18:38 GMT - 09/12/2011  
One focus for the eur/usd is on its close, having ended down in 8 of the past 9 sessions. It would need to produce some successive higher closes to suggest a pause in the downside risk.
Date             Close
8/29/2011	1.4512
8/30/2011	1.4462
8/31/2011	1.4379
9/1/2011        1.4270
9/2/2011	1.4192
9/5/2011        1.4092
9/6/2011	1.3996
9/7/2011	1.4090 *higher close
9/8/2011	1.3892
9/9/2011	1.3663
9/12/2011          ?

GVI Forex Jay  20:10:00 GMT - 09/09/2011  
Have a great weekend, c u Monday

I encourage others to join in on our discussions.

eu pat  20:01:37 GMT - 09/09/2011  
thanks we can find a lot of splendid opinions...maybe only less competetion and more friendly discussion...and then together more good decisions...happy trade and nice weekend

GVI Forex Jay  19:46:20 GMT - 09/09/2011  
Pat, good to see you and this is the place to discuss trades in a private setting. Since it is not the forex forum, posts here have a long shelf life but may not get an immediate reply.

I drew the same channel and posted it (see below) and it helped cause a pause on Friday. Not sure going forwards but will keep an eye on it to see whether it holds again if tested.

Otherwise, it seems the market has 1.35 and 1.30 in its sights and question is how it gets there. I show 1.3429 and 1.2875 as the key levels on a weekly chart.

On the upside, 1.3720-25 is a key resistance as that is where the phantom spike higher hit a wall on Friday. My view is to stay in a sell on blips mode as long as it stays below 1.3800. If 1.3650 becomes resistance, then 1.35 goes on the radar.

Your view welcomed.

eu pat  19:33:58 GMT - 09/09/2011  
during this maybe 16 weeks was blue uptrend chanel a few times solid rezistence or support and red downtrend chanel as well ( this week also)...will be bottom of red chanell suport next week? i"d like to discuss opinions with trades here...its better, then one men show or who is better /:

eu pat  19:24:27 GMT - 09/09/2011  
as posted on 6.7

one more long term regression channel (blue on weekly chart) , whitch I posted in May. Middle of channel was a quite solid rezistence or support last week...its not question wheter down, its only about when...tomorrow is ECB and then after NFP I maybe will start think about seriosly is still time buy a dip and sell ...also to consider colapsing world system and big political preasure...

eu pat  19:21:06 GMT - 09/09/2011  
maybe consideration on friday evening, no position, beer, no posted on 23.5.11

GVI Forex  17:55:22 GMT - 09/09/2011  
Daily chart - note the channel

GVI Forex  14:29:39 GMT - 09/09/2011  
Weekly EURUSD chart - little nearby support on the weekly chart following the break of 1.3825.

1.3755 = 100 week mva (green line)

1.3429 and 1.2875 are key weekly supports

GVI Forex Jay  21:46:04 GMT - 09/08/2011  
Daily EURUSD Chart with key levels noted (click on the chart once opened to zoom in)

GVI Forex  16:53:45 GMT - 09/08/2011  
With the exception of July 12 when the low at 1.3835 was set, today is the first decisive move through the 200 day mva (yellow line = 1.4017) since early January. This is bearish but would need to be confirmed by a firm 1.3835 break, which is on the market radar while below 1.40.

Feel free to comment.

GVI Forex  11:53:04 GMT - 09/07/2011  
100 hour mva (green line) capped the upside today and an indicator to watch going forwards.

GVI Forex Jay  17:48:39 GMT - 09/06/2011  
eurusd just moved above the 5 minute trendline drawn off the 1.4281 high, which worked nicely as a guide today since the US came in. Demand coming from firmer eurchf and eurjpy. Watch close vs. 1.40

GVI Forex Jay  17:26:00 GMT - 09/01/2011  
BB, good question. It is not usd/chf and usd/jpy putting pressure on the eur/usd but eur/chf and eur/jpy selling.

Think of a cross as an equation:

cross rate = spot 1 x spot 2

e.g. Let's take the case of eur/chf testing its downside.

eur/chf = eur/usd x usd/chf

1.1480 = 1.4350 x .80

The cross (in this case eur/chf) can move lower if usd/chf moves lower, eur/usd moves lower or eur/usd moves lower more than usd/chf moves higher.

Often what happens is one pair does not move much or lags (often happens with usd/jpy) and using the equation, the only way the cross can move lower is for the other currency pair (e.g. eur/usd) to move lower.

In my post yesterday, eur/chf was moving lower but usd/chf found support around .80. So the only way the cross could move lower was for eur/usd to move lower as the full burden of the cross flows falls on the eur/usd shoulders.

Today is different as both eur/usd and usd/chf are both trading lower.

It is hard to cover all combinations in a short post but you can use crosses to tell you what the cross flows are in the market as we no longer live in a USD centric world. Then you have to figure what is the weaker or stronger side and that is not always easy but at least you have an idea what is driving the spot market.

When trading the eur/usd I look mainly at the 3 major crosses, eur/jpy, eur/chf and eur/gbp.

It may sound complicated but it is really quite simple when you think of a cross as an equation.

See this Using Crosses to Trade Spot

Please feel free to ask more questions.

GVI Forex Jay  17:01:51 GMT - 09/01/2011  
1.4314 was the post-ISM high so would need to be taken out to shift focus from downside although only above 1.4325 would neutralize the risk. High just now was 1.4297, last 1.4286

San Antonio BB  20:18:54 GMT - 08/31/2011  
I'm fairly new to Forex trading. Can you please elaborate on the USD/JPY, USD/CHF, putting pressure on EUR/USD?


GVI Forex Jay  18:01:45 GMT - 08/31/2011  
Cross trading 101 --

usdjpy pausing at 76.50, usdchf above .8000, puts burden on the eurusd downside to absorb the euro cross selling.

Feel free to ask questions if you need me to elaborate.

GVI Forex Jay  10:42:51 GMT - 08/30/2011  
eur/chf is back above 1.18, argues for some eur/usd support but needs 1.44+ to give it a bid.

GVI Forex  15:28:40 GMT - 08/24/2011  
EURUSD daily chart - triangle?

GVI Forex Jay  11:59:34 GMT - 08/23/2011  
Same game as yesterday - stocks open firmer and then see whether they can hold gains - stocks currently moving off highs and fx following

GVI Forex Jay  15:00:00 GMT - 08/22/2011  
Just look at equities for the clue - my idea last night (posted on GVI Forex) selling 1.4400-50 proved better than waiting for 1.4450-00

GVI Forex Jay  15:01:02 GMT - 08/19/2011  
"50" level proved to be a good one -- high 1.4452 (last 1.4416) - see post below (note 1.4451 was Thursday's high so a double top)

One hour chart has worked well this week.

GVI Forex  14:14:06 GMT - 08/19/2011  
1 hour chart shows resistance next at 1.4451

GVI Forex Jay  18:58:49 GMT - 08/18/2011  
John has been telling me for a long time to watch the bond market as that is where the clues are coming from. Yesterday the fx market was in a full risk on mode but bonds suggested otherwise. Score one for bonds today.

GVI Forex Jay  15:33:57 GMT - 08/18/2011  
Key on the downside is the 1.4260 area

1.4260 = 61.8% of 1.4101-1.4517
1.4259 = Monday's and this week's low

On the upside

Back above 1.4350 is needed to slow risk, market maintains negative bias below it

As posted on: GVI Forex

GVI Forex  13:47:56 GMT - 08/18/2011  
I posted a 1 hour chart in my Trade Talk - Weathermap update on the forex forum earlier and note how the broken trandline acted as resistance.

Trendlines, once broken, often act as a support or resistance (as the case may be) the other way.

200 hour mva (currently 1.2308) is next potential support, low so far 1.4317

GVI Forex  13:00:38 GMT - 08/17/2011  
1 hour chart - Note trendline (up) and 100 hour mva were a good support combo today.

On the upside, former line (broken) comes in at 1.4462, which is currently support that needs to hold to keep 1.45 in sight.

GVI Forex Jay  00:59:48 GMT - 08/17/2011  
Low so far 1.4351

This was the Forex Weathermap I posted earlier on GVI Forex

Daily Forex WeatherMap - by Jay Meisler
Aug. 16, 2011 EURUSD bias: Still UP while above 1.4350; 1.4450+ caps unless 1.45+. Below 1.4350 negates and puts 1.4250-00 in play. Expected Range: 1.4280-1.4435 Forex Forum

GVI Forex Jay  11:29:40 GMT - 08/16/2011  
Low so far 1.4357 vs. my key 1.4350-55 area (see Forex Weathermap) - includes former daily "triangle" line broken yesterday - see chart

See Forex Weathermap

GVI Forex Jay  13:49:58 GMT - 08/15/2011  
Chatter of stops at 1.4440-50

Key chart level is 1.4453, Aug 1 high

High so far 1.4438

GVI Forex  13:00:59 GMT - 08/12/2011  
I posted a similar chart yesterday (see post below) where the eur/usd bounced off an upward sloping 5 minute 50 period mva (purple line). Simlar occurrence today

I am not posting this with hindsight but to illustrate an indicator to watch for those trading short-term.

Feel free to comment or discuss.

GVI Forex  16:53:43 GMT - 08/11/2011  
This is for the day trader:

I look at a variety of charts and look for an indicator that is working.

On the 5 minute chart, note how eurusd bounced off the 50 period mva (and held above 1.42). Bounce has been shallow despite firmer stocks so some disconnect (a warning sign) but it did produce a nice short=term scalp.

GVI Forex  12:50:29 GMT - 08/11/2011  
Tested 1.4103, bottom of the 'triangle" I cited earlier in my Tech Talk - EURUSD (see Forex Forum update: GVI Forex Jay 10:41 GMT August 11, 2011 )

GVI Forex Jay  14:12:36 GMT - 08/10/2011  
This kept me on the right path at least but should have left out the intra-day part as that is the driver. With that said this extended volatility tests even the most seasoned trader:

It seems pointless to make a call as the mood in the market will likely be set by how stocks trade and whether yesterday's rally was a one day wonder or the start of a more serious correction. In this regard, watch the close rather than intra-day gyrations.

GVI Forex Jay  19:41:02 GMT - 08/09/2011  
GVI Forex Jay 19:20 GMT August 9, 2011 - My Profile
USD: Reply
Once the dust settles on this latest global panic (+ close for stocks would help), the dollar is going to be the lead funding currency with no interest rate risk through next year. This is a big assumption but if things stabilize, it is hard to make a case for holding dollars.

As posted on GVI Forex

GVI Forex  11:05:00 GMT - 08/09/2011  

TECH TALK - EURUSD - 1.43 Trades For 14 Week

10:55 GMT ( August 9 - While the EURUSD has recovered today in line with a generally weaker dollar, it has been more of a sideshow with its 136 pip range (1.4151-1.4287) modest in comparison to some of the other pairs, such as USDCHF (231 pips), AUD ((330 pips) and NZD (319 pips).

In fact, if you look at the EURUSD weekly chart, it has been in a range for the past 14 weeks, where 1.43 has (or nearly printed) each week (see chart). Maybe this is a reflection of both USD and EUR weakness or a focus more on euro crosses than EURUSD. This is especially glaring given the intra-day volatility and chop but little net change over this period.

It could also reflect a market where the 1.3835 low was an outlier and there has been interest on both sides outside of 1.41-1.45, which coincidentally has 1.43 as the midpoint. Looking forwards, when 1.43 becomes support or resistance, it might send a directional move. In the meantime, expect the market to play this range until the picture changes.

Daily Forex WeatherMap - by Jay Meisler
Today’s EURUSD Expected bias: "Risk" dependent so watch stocks, currently called higher. Bid on dips while above 1.42 but fickle. Range: 1.4170-1.4395 Forex Forum

GVI Forex Jay  16:42:27 GMT - 08/08/2011  
A word of warning:

We are in a semi-panic in global markets, which are being driven by factors beyond techncials. So take that into accountl. watch your leverage and use stops. There are big moves and big risks.

GVI Forex Jay  13:26:26 GMT - 08/05/2011  
I posted this earlier on GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay 12:55 GMT August 5, 2011 - My Profile
data: Reply
Gut says with no key data due next week stocks could try to claw back but that depends on how we close the week.

GVI Forex Jay  12:43:19 GMT - 08/05/2011  
This scenario, as posted in my earlier Tech Talk update, worked out nicely but will be tricky from here with 1.42+ needed to suggest some relief. 1.4150-00 is sort of a neutral zone. Post data high was 1.4218.

10:20 GMT ( August 5 - The focus now shifts to the US jobs report in an environment where bad news is coming on all fronts. These markets could use some respite but even if NFP comes in above consensus, any relief bounce would likely be taken as an opportunity to sell...

GVI Forex Jay  11:20:15 GMT - 08/02/2011  
From a RTRS recap in our blog:

...They said very low liquidity was exacerbating moves, though traders said euro demand from sovereigns looking to diversify their dollar holdings helped limit falls in the single currency.

"Liquidity is atrocious and is causing some exaggerated moves, especially in the Swiss franc," said Sebastien Galy, currency strategist at Societe Generale...

GVI Forex Jay  12:22:40 GMT - 08/01/2011  
Today is a prime example of the Battle of the Two Uglies with both the dollar unable to firm even on a relief rally while the euro initially gained on easing 'risk off" but has since more than given back its cross gains. The battle is for which currency stays off the bottom of the food chain. Dollar is currently at the bottom.

For those who did not read my article on this topic, see

Thoughts From the Forex Trenches

GVI Forex Jay  12:41:39 GMT - 07/29/2011  
The following was posted on GVI Forex and explains the price action just now.

GVI Forex Jay 12:39 GMT July 29, 2011 - My Profile
CHF: Reply
See the post in this thread -- eur/usd bounced but lagging usd/chf break below .80 (new record low) as eur/chf set a new record low as well.

GVI Forex Jay 11:44 GMT July 29, 2011 - My Profile
CHF: Reply
USD/CHF .80 is important for if below it the EUR/USD does not have to bear the full brunt of offsets for EUR/CHF to move lower. USD/JPY acts similar although below 78.00 makes it hard for BOJ (assuming covert activity) to hold the line.

GVI Forex john  13:43:37 GMT - 07/28/2011  
As expected, the 20-day moving average (1.4287) on the daily chart is proving to be magnetic. Mean reversion in a range market works well. In a trending market, it can signal a trend change. Not precise but the current range looks to be 1.4000 to 1.4500. That makes 1.4250 roughly the mid-point. Point is be careful not to get bullish at the top of the range or bearish at the bottom.

I started posting Bollinger Bands extracted from our chart points page to provide some broader parameters on the market on the FF.

Global-View Chartpoints

GVI Forex Jay  16:51:30 GMT - 07/27/2011  
Still traing technically with the 1.4442 break shifting the bias.

1.4335 = 38.2% of 1.4009-1.4536 vs. a 1.4338 intra-day low.

The 200 hour mva is at 1.4284, close to the 20 day mva. This has been a good indicator for the eurusd of late.

GVI Forex john  16:44:58 GMT - 07/27/2011  
More of a move in spot EURUSD than I was expecting today. Mean reversion (20day moving average?) suggests 1.4290 based on Tuesday close as an ultimate target. Looking like 20day average may be about 1.4293 today.


GVI Forex john  12:21:11 GMT - 07/27/2011  
Just looking at the daily chart for EURUSD. I always like to follow the 20-day moving average and notice that over the past four months that spot has been pivoting the 20-day average over the period. We had it at 1.4290 on the close yesterday.

I guess this implies in EURUSD you have to trade the range?

GVI Forex Jay  14:44:04 GMT - 07/26/2011  
Buying against 1.4450 worked. Best I can offer at the moment while within 1.4450-00.

Note prior post with 1.4450 key day support.

GVI Forex  12:42:14 GMT - 07/26/2011  
Daily chart is clear with the former trendline broken today at 1.4450 being the key level to keep a bid under the eurusd. On the upside, 1.45 is pivotal as well as above it (and the 1.4522 high) would put key 1.4577 resistance on the radar. The significance of 1.4577 is a break would end the string of lower highs.

So 1.4450-1.4500 sees two way flow with a bid bias but a range that is too tight to last for long.

GVI Forex  12:03:19 GMT - 07/25/2011  
EURUSD daily chart - currently trapped between the cluster of mva and the down trendline/channel top.

GVI Forex Jay  11:05:36 GMT - 07/25/2011  
The performance of the CHF, which is sharply higher vs. the dollar and euro, is an illustration how the battle of the two uglies continues, with bearish sentiment towards both currencies for obvious reasons.

The dollar only seems to rise when the martet gets bearish on the euro and probably same for the euro vs the dollar.

GVI Forex Jay  00:11:10 GMT - 07/25/2011  
Too much headline risk and thus no surprise to see a cautious start to the week after the initial flurry did not follow through.

Key level is the daily trendline/channel top = 1.4460 (inviting target but guarded by)

1.4416 = early intra-day high
1.4437 = Friday high

GVI Forex Jay  13:18:51 GMT - 07/22/2011  
Looking at a one hour chart, key level is 1.4294, yesterday's intra-day breakout level and just below expected support above the 50 and 100 day mvas. Low so fsr 1.4344

Using 1.4009-1.4437, 1.4336 = 23.6%

1.4310 = daily pivot

1.4350 = sentiment indicator while within 1.43-1.44

GVI Forex Jay  12:01:02 GMT - 07/22/2011  
Note euro crosses slipping (eur/chf below 1.18, eur/jpy below 113) -- eur/usd sliiping as a result - offsets (e.g. lower usd/chf, usd/jpy) painting mixed picture for a dollar caught in-between. Stocks a touch lower, gold up (note earlier Tech Talk update). Still a bid bias while above 1.4350 but less than if 1.44+

GVI Forex  20:43:05 GMT - 07/21/2011  
Trendline/channel top comes in at 1.4475 on Friday. This is a key level and exposed if 1.44+ gets established. Its significance is that it not only guards 1.45 but key 1.4577 resistance. 1.4577 is important as a move above would break the pattern of lower tops.

Gut says we are still within the broad range (1.38--1.48 or 1.40-1.50?) but market needs to find the new sub-range.

GVI Forex  11:03:12 GMT - 07/21/2011  
100 hour (green line) and 200 hour (yellow line) are indicators to watch - of the two, 200 hour may be most important as it was the one that capped the upside until the move above it on Tuesday. It currently comes in at 1.4115. 100 hour is currently 1.4148.

GVI Forex Jay  10:46:35 GMT - 07/20/2011  
Tech Talk - EURUSD

10:35 GMT ( July 20 - The euro is getting support ahead of tomorrow's EU summit in a market that seems to be driven by defensive book squaring rather than positioning ahead of the event.

This sets the stage for a Wednesday session that is looking ahead as the twin soap operas (Greece and US debt ceiling) dominate. There does seem to be some optimism that a Greek bailout will have substance even though Merkel downplayed any plan as an intermediate one. This sets the stage for some disappointment if the plan is not a "shock and awe" but that is for tomorrow's market although any plan would be a relief. Stocks are opening firmer = "risk on" mood to start the US session.

Looking at charts, this is the first day in the past 4 days that 1.40xx did not print and the 2nd day in a row that 1.42xx has traded. This suggests 1.42 will be the focus pre-and post-EU summit with a cluster of key levels looming above that have potential to attract but only if a solid 1.42+ is established. These come in at:

1.4267 = 20 day mva
1.4293 = 100 day mva
1.4294 = 50 day mva and 61.8% of 1.4577-1.3835

As has been the case, keep an eye on euro crosses as a clue to eurusd strength (or weakness). In this regard, eur/chf 1.1650, eur/jpy 112 and eur/gbp are pivotal levels.

Current intra-day supports are at 1.4217-20, 1.4200 and 1.4165.

Jay meisler, co-founder,

GVI Forex  18:30:16 GMT - 07/19/2011  
JP just pointed this out on GVI Forex. One hour trendline (currently 1.4103) so far holding. See chart.

GVI Forex Jay  17:18:42 GMT - 07/19/2011  
EURUSD has closed with a 1.41xx handle for 4 days in a row so would need a close outside 1.41-1.42 to suggest a run at 1.40 or 1.43. As noted earlier, the convergence of 1 hour mvas (20/100/200), currently around 1.4140, is providing a magnetic pull as firmer euro crosses seen earlier lose steam. Stocks are firmer though so a "risk on" mood still prevails. Last 1.4149.

GVI Forex Jay  15:47:28 GMT - 07/19/2011  
Crosses continue to provide the clues -- euro coming off highs providing some modest offset pressure on eur/usd. 20/100/200 hour mvas currently converging around 1.4140 so support while above it but maybe it has a magnetic pull? I am sort of neutral here with crosses losing some steam.

As posted on: GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay  20:02:06 GMT - 07/18/2011  
This is an important post to read. Feel free to comment.

Today is a good example of how crosses impact spot -- n ote the late eur/usd rally with euro crosses giving a clue earlier. See the following I posted on GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay 18:36 GMT July 18, 2011 - My Profile
Tech Talk - EURUSD: Reply
It has been more about eur/chf than eur/usd today and last at 1.1525 is 160 pips off the early opening low. It has also been about eur/gbp, which has come off its low nicely as well but is still below .88.

It looks to me that we could be seeing solutions on two fronts this week, Greece and US debt ceiling but both appear to be intermediate kicking the can type than the grand bargains that would put concerns to rest.

So maybe we are seeing some anticipation in the fx market but then again it could have been a covert SNB attack as US stocks are down and in a risk off mood.

For me, more questions than answers and will watch eur/usd 1.40-1.41 for the next clue. Euro crosses argue for an upside risk but only a strong signal if eur/gbp follows eur/chf 1.15+ (if it is sustained) with .88+ and eur/jpy follows with 112+ and stocks rebound.

GVI Forex Jay 16:25 GMT July 18, 2011 - My Profile
Tech Talk - EURUSD: Reply
Some disconnects today -- stocks off sharply but bonds not moving much, euro crosses are bid after earlier weakness, keeping a modest bid under the eur/usd to keep it above 1.40 although still down on the day.

Not sure what to make of it but doesn't all add up in a "risk off" day.

GVI Forex Jay  20:02:05 GMT - 07/18/2011  
Today is a good example of how crosses impact spot -- n ote the late eur/usd rally with euro crosses giving a clue earlier. See the following I posted on GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay 18:36 GMT July 18, 2011 - My Profile
Tech Talk - EURUSD: Reply
It has been more about eur/chf than eur/usd today and last at 1.1525 is 160 pips off the early opening low. It has also been about eur/gbp, which has come off its low nicely as well but is still below .88.

It looks to me that we could be seeing solutions on two fronts this week, Greece and US debt ceiling but both appear to be intermediate kicking the can type than the grand bargains that would put concerns to rest.

So maybe we are seeing some anticipation in the fx market but then again it could have been a covert SNB attack as US stocks are down and in a risk off mood.

For me, more questions than answers and will watch eur/usd 1.40-1.41 for the next clue. Euro crosses argue for an upside risk but only a strong signal if eur/gbp follows eur/chf 1.15+ (if it is sustained) with .88+ and eur/jpy follows with 112+ and stocks rebound.

GVI Forex Jay 16:25 GMT July 18, 2011 - My Profile
Tech Talk - EURUSD: Reply
Some disconnects today -- stocks off sharply but bonds not moving much, euro crosses are bid after earlier weakness, keeping a modest bid under the eur/usd to keep it above 1.40 although still down on the day.

Not sure what to make of it but doesn't all add up in a "risk off" day.

GVI Forex Jay  01:13:39 GMT - 07/18/2011  
I posted this earlier on GVI Forex and note how eur/usd is currently being preesured out of weaker euro crosses:

GVI Forex Jay 22:55 GMT July 17, 2011 - My Profile
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Edit Delete
Hope everyone had a great weekend and back to this bi-polar, battle of the two uglies market. New record low for eur/chf to start the week (below 1.15) sums up a market seeking cover and not finding it in either the USD or euro.

In the week ahead, better than even chance the US extends the debt ceiling but compromise will satisfy no one as the chance for serious debt reduction is missed due to political differences and a broken political system.

In Europe, there is a chance that the Greek situation finally sees a proposal but here, too, it will not inspire confidence and key is how hard the can is kicked down the road or how the market handles a technical default. If Merkel announces she will attend a leaders summit, then you know they have a proposal that will pass.

If there is no resolution to either of these situations, then more of the same uncertainty will cloud trading.

Looking at the eur/usd key levels on top are the cluster of mvas (100/20/50) between 1.4286-1.4301. There is potential to attract but only if 1.42+ trades.

On the other side, Friday's low at 1.4090 is the only key nearby level, which for me suggests 1.41-1.42 is sort of a no man's land. 1.4150 sets the trading bias while within this range (which is too tight to last long given the avg daily range has been 192 pips over the past 5 days). Using 1.3835-1.4281, 1.4058 = 50%, 1.4005 = 61.8%

You can also use the 100 and 200 hour mvs as an initial guide, currently, 1.4093 and 1.4195

Probably more important are euro crosses as a guide --

above eur/chf 1.15, eur/jpy 112 and eur/gbp .88 would be needed to suggest easing of pressures and risk on the eur/usd upside. While below these pivotal levels, eur/usd will likely struggle unless USD comes under general selling pressure.

GVI Forex Jay  20:53:13 GMT - 07/16/2011  
Thor, it is a starting point but we have to see what the focus of the week will be and whether it will be split between the Greece and US debt ceiling soap operas. 1.4150 had a magnetic quality on Friday and could set the tone early in the week although 1.41 and 1.42 are probably more important. I expect an indecisive start to the week and watch euro crosses, specifically eur/chf but eur/jpy and eurgbp as well for clues.

This is worth noting (see below) as I always pay attention to bc's macro view --

As posted on GVI Forex

shanghai bc 23:09 GMT July 15, 2011
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Summer bear rally of US Dollar may be almost over by now..It was just a zig-zag pattern rally at most..Non-Dollar assets and US stocks are starting its second leg northward journey this year..Gold and SGD making a new high is just a signal of Asian money starting to make a move..The move may last well into late November..

Brock Thor  22:10:46 GMT - 07/15/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
Chart posted 7/14/2011
Jay ...for next week(monday anyway) and considering the most recent chart posted. Are you thinking the 200 sma resistance and the 100
sma (close to being ) support?
1.4175 pivot?
I have a feeling it won't go to far past/ higher than that 200 sma considering recent news. Unless some positive EU comes out and or super negative USA news changes things.
Looking to scalp that range.
Comments appreciated Thank you.

GVI Forex Jay  21:13:42 GMT - 07/15/2011  
Given the volatility nseen this week, note the eur/usd closes the past 3 days:

1.4139 = Wed
1.4131 = Thurs
1.4145 = Fri

GVI Forex Jay  16:50:24 GMT - 07/14/2011  
The 200 hour mva proved to be a good indicator today. See chart in previous post.

GVI Forex  14:30:23 GMT - 07/14/2011  
200 hour mva now arouind 1.4255

GVI Forex  00:04:01 GMT - 07/14/2011  
I posted this earlier this morning on GVI Forex

Daily chart shows the key trendline is not until around 1.45 (1.4520) but there is a risk for converging mva between 1.4279/1.4300/1.4315 (100/20/50) but that would require 1.42+ to solidly trade.

If you look at euro crosses, it has been more of a dollar move than euro led recovery as the market takes a respite from the EZ soap opera and reverts to its underlying focus, which is interest rates and Fed supply of liquidity.

Now we have the debt ceiling soap opera moving to page 1.

Note, the high just now was 1.4271, just shy of the 100 day mva

GVI Forex Jay  13:00:42 GMT - 07/13/2011  
I have used the term "battle of the two uglies" and at risk of repeating myself, this is the fx world we currently live in... i.e. a weak euro vs. a weak dollar in the battle to stay off the bottom. This is why euro crosses, in this current attack on the common currency, are the focus as there is a reluctance to park money in the dollar. This is also why you often see lags in other currencies with eurusd moves providing most of the movement in the crosses although this is not always the case (note usd/jpy air pocket drop late yesterday).

Feel free to comment.

GVI Forex Jay  12:26:33 GMT - 07/12/2011  
Key level on the upside is the intra-day high at 1.4062 so little other than the high just now at 1.4006. So not much to go for in terms of stops on either side although if it gets above 1.40, there could be some above 1.4006?

On the downswide, nothing obvious nearby so focus is on close vs. 1.3968. There could be some support at 1.3960 but nothing otherwise until 1.3902-06 (base for the pop to 1.4006).

It will stay choppy and nervous.

GVI Forex  10:41:10 GMT - 07/12/2011  
10:30 GMT ( July 12 - With the deck cleared of sell stops, the eur/usd bounce back above the 200 day mva (1.3905) would need to renew 1.3968 (former key low) and 1.3984 (Monday low) to put 1.40 in play again. Otherwise, risk stays on the downside as a firm brreak of 1.3968 (and close below) would confirm a downtrend where a case can be made for a risk to 1.3429.

This makes it a critical day where you will need to keep an eye on headlines and euro crosses, most specifically eur/chf (another record low) and eur/jpy (tested sub-110, usd/jp[y below 80) as this is where pressure on the eur/usd has come from in this run for cover.

This makes it a tricky session as unlike yesterday, there are no sell stops to go after until the low while the upside is capped while below 1.3968-84.

Jay Meisler, co-founder,

GVI Forex Jay  14:26:12 GMT - 07/08/2011  
As posted on GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay 14:21 GMT July 8, 2011 - My Profile
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FM, that is the issue, We would all like it to be better data buy the dollar, negative data sell the dollar but not the risk on/risk off cards we are dealt.

eur/chf below 1.20 as stocks slide, dragging eurusd lower along with commodity currencies.

Lahore FM 14:01 GMT July 8, 2011 - My Profile
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John there is possibility of risk aversion trade soon which will see USD being bought.the mess is quite often good for USD even if it originates in usa and then spreads far and wide!

GVI Forex  14:05:20 GMT - 07/08/2011  
One hour chart shows 1.4374-95 (also 100 hour mva - green line) as key resistance

GVI Forex Jay  13:12:03 GMT - 07/08/2011  
1,42-1.44 range call working out with the post-data low at 1.4205.

1.4350 now becomes pivotal in containing the upside and keeping it from making a run at 1.4374 (Thurs high) and 1.44.

It appears 1.43 is the current intra-day sentiment indicator (i.e. feels bid while above it, offered when below it).

GVI Forex Jay  09:50:34 GMT - 07/08/2011  
09:45 GMT ( July 9 - It is time for NFP roulette and this has seen the euro retreat in thin pre-data trading as the effect of the ECB kicking Portuguese debt down the road has been replaced by concerns over Eurozone banks.

This puts the eur/usd on the defensive heading into the US jobs report but within yesterday's 1.4220-1.4374 range. Looking at that range suggests a possible 1.42-1.44 range for today although much will depend on US data and the reaction to it. Note, key support is at last week's 1.4101 low. This week's 1.4577 high is out of range for today.

Jay Meisler, co-founder,

GVI Forex Jay  10:29:48 GMT - 07/07/2011  
10:25 GMT ( July 7 - All eyes are on the ECB rate decision and Trichet press conference today, overshadowing the ADP survey and weekly jobless claims as the June US employment report looms on Friday. EURUSD is heading into the ECB meeting on the defensive although still well within its 1.4101-1.4577 two-week range.

Looking at the EURUSD, it tested 1.4282 = 61.8% of 1.4101-1.4577 (low 1.4276). Other levels to watch within 1.42-1.43 are at 1.4255 (100 day mva) and 1.4213 (76.4%).

The upside paused overnight just below 1.4350, close to 1.4558 (20 day mva), suggesting the "50" level is crucial to keeping the risk pointed down.

Using the daily chart, a triangle is forming at 1.4150-1.4545 (see chart).

To sum up, market seems to be looking for levels to sell euro so onus is on the bull side to get above 1.4350 to ease the risk.

Jay Meisler, co-founder,

GVI Forex Jay  18:44:19 GMT - 07/06/2011  
GVI Forex Jay 18:35 GMT July 6, 2011 - My Profile
As posted today on GVI Forex

Tech Talk - EURUSD: Reply
And interesting how eur/usd vs. stock correlation is working again in the US.

GVI Forex Jay 17:49 GMT July 6, 2011 - My Profile
Tech Talk - EURUSD: Reply
Interesting how FIBOS have been working:

The high a short while ago was 1.4337, just a pip below 1.4338, which I noted earlier was a 50% level and held as resistance after broken earlier.

GVI Forex Jay 13:45 GMT July 6, 2011 - My Profile
High just now was 1.4338 = 50% level cited earlier.

GVI Forex Jay  15:32:12 GMT - 07/06/2011  
Still performing technically:

Yesterday the low was at 1.4395 = 38.2% (of 1.4101-1.4577)

Today the low was a few pips above 1.4282 = 61.8%

eu pat  10:34:56 GMT - 07/06/2011  
and another my wiew: 2 hours time frame with short term channel helped well informed large subiects on the market with a long time cooperate with Moodys and spol...below 1,43250 I suppose a large stop losses...this is big magnet now...

eu pat  10:11:36 GMT - 07/06/2011  
one more long term regression channel (blue on weekly chart) , whitch I posted in May. Middle of channel was a quite solid rezistence or support last week...its not question wheter down, its only about when...tomorrow is ECB and then after NFP I maybe will start think about seriosly is still time buy a dip and sell ...also to consider colapsing world system and big political preasure...

GVI Forex Jay  09:42:37 GMT - 07/06/2011  
09:40 GMT ( July 6 - It seems that headlines and euro crosses mean more than eur/usd technicals these days although the failure to establish 1.45+ has seen the pair retreat. Moving averages have given false signals of late with moves outside of them not following through. The 20 day (1.4272) and 100 day mva (1.4248) remain key indicators to watch going forwards nonetheless.

Yesterday the low at 1.4395 was at 38.2% of 1.4101-1.4577 so today the focus shifts to the 50% level at 1.4338 with that low broken overnight. 61.8% = 1.4282.

Otherwise there are no key nearby levels and it appears that the “50” level (1.4350) is significant as a sentiment indicator in a session where eyes will be on news headlines in what should be a holding session ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow and Trichet’s news conference. The euro’s performance ahead of an expected rate hike is uninspiring as if it was business as usual it would have been trading above 1.45 with a bid. Then there is US NFP on Friday with the ADP survey out today.

On a tech note, above 1.4395 is needed to shoft the focus back to 1.44-1.45 ahead of the ECB.

Jay Meisler, co-founder,

GVI Forex Jay  23:07:33 GMT - 07/05/2011  
Check this out:

1.4395 = 38.2% of 1.4101-1.4577 (1.4395 = Tuesday's low)

GVI Forex Jay  15:54:45 GMT - 07/03/2011  
Coming off an outside week that saw the euro whipsaw the bear sidee, it comes into the week with a focus on 1.45 (daily pivot = 1.4502), as it has been the past few days. In fact, 1.4450-1.4550 is around the current range in a week where the focus will be on whether the "risk on" mood that dominated last week will continue.

As for the euro, if the market wants to return to business as usual it will keep a bid under the euro ahead of Thursday's expected ECB rate hiuke.More important will be on what Trichet hints afterwards as the press conference focus will be on Greece more than future interest rate hikes.

Then there is the US jobs report on Friday and the reaction will be crucial as to whether the market looks past the current data as a temporary "soft patch" and focuses on thsoe forecasting and rebound in jobs in the months ahead.

So, hold on to your hats for another choppy week. I still say we are entering summer ranges if such a term still exists.

GVI Forex Jay  05:09:12 GMT - 07/01/2011  
No change from what I posted yesterday at this time except so far today it has been an inside day. Buying on dips ahead of 1.4445-50 worked overnight.

There is also some chatter of a risk of a return to 1.50 but that would require a return to business as usual? For today, early exits in the US after quite a week, especially for stocks, which will again help set the "risk" mood..

Daily pivot = 1.4492

GVI Forex Jay 04:51:04 GMT - 06/30/2011
Keeping it simple, look no farther than eur/usd 1.45 as it will set the tone going forwards.

Market should look to buy dips as long as it stays above 1.4445-50, stronger if 1.45+ trades, less so if below it.

GVI Forex Jay  21:45:28 GMT - 06/30/2011  
The weekly setup videos are loaded here

GVI Forex Jay  04:51:04 GMT - 06/30/2011  
Keeping it simple, look no farther than eur/usd 1.45 as it will set the tone going forwards.

Market should look to buy dips as long as it stays above 1.4445-50, stronger if 1.45+ trades, less so if below it.

R2 = 1.4522
R3 = 1.4597

GVI Forex Jay  04:30:00 GMT - 06/27/2011  
EUR/USD performing as per the risk suggested in my post over the weekend, failure at 1.42 seeing a move below the 100 day mva and the 1.4125 low. To suggest a run at 1.40, 1.4125 now needs to be firmly broken. Market stays in SOB mode while below 1.42, stronger bias while below the 100 day mva but needs to stay below 1.4150 to keep those levels off the radar.

GVI Forex john  18:06:36 GMT - 06/26/2011  
I like to watch the daily moving averages. The critical moving average is the 20-day. It comes in at 1.4388 as of the Friday close. There is no upward momentum left in EURUSD, but 1.4100 or so is the bottom of its current range.

Islamabad Stryker  16:25:14 GMT - 06/25/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
GBP as per weekly most likely be testing an imp supp around 5873..
It has dropped back under the possible neckline of its H&S, once on thursday but able to close above, however on Friday it is closing under to it.. Immediate resis is only 12-15 pips from closing around 5973, extending to 6006-6017...
As long as GBP/USD stays under 6030, it will stay under pressure and favors a move to 5930, followed by 5870.. A break of 5870 would call for further accelerated losses on this pair....
Links to the charts:::

GBP - 8 hrs:
GBP - 8 hrs A
GBP - 4 hrs - streaming downward channels

Oslamabad Stryker  09:47:48 GMT - 06/25/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
Daily and weekly a harami. DX closing higher to the downward channel and has given a breakout. Euro on a threshold here. AUD and GBP broken or right around to their neckline (H&S).
IF DX can maintain the breakout and confirms this by breaking higher above 76.96. look for downward move on euro / aud / gbp and chf / cad to follow as well..

GVI Forex Jay  03:44:39 GMT - 06/25/2011  
The close below the 100 day mva (1.4188 Monday) is bearish but need to see some distance below to suggest a run at sub-1,40 again, In any xase, 1.42 sets the bias and daily pivot is around that level. Last week's low at 1.4125 is important. Continue to keep an eye on eur/chf as an indicator of euro sentiment as the Greek saga continues to play out.

GVI Forex john  11:01:09 GMT - 06/24/2011  
When you use chart points, you are expecting some sort of continuity to the markets that we are not seeing today. I expected a quiet session today but was wrong again as we are now suddenly getting another barrage of headlines out of left field.

I'm focused today on the EURUSD pivot points based on yesterday's wide ranges. pivot = 1.4233 R1 = 1.4342 S1 = 1.4129.


GVI Forex Jay  04:54:54 GMT - 06/24/2011  
Looking through FX Chart points there is little to go for in terms of obvious levels or stops. The 20 and 50 day mvas are bunched around 1.44 and key support is not until below 1.42 at yesterday's 1.4125 low. One indicator to watch going forwards is the 100 day mva, which is a good one for the medium term trend although gave a head fake yesterday by the late bounce back above it. It is currently at 1.4182.

For today, expect a cautious session with pre-weekend position adjustments likely to dominate after yesterday's late spike up shaking out weak shorts. Look for a break of 1.42-1.43 to set Friday's tone. 1.4233 = daily pivot.

FX Chart Poins

GVI Forex john  21:53:36 GMT - 06/22/2011  
Looking at the moving averages, the 20sma has closed in NY below 1.4389. The 10-day is next at 1.4341. Spot at this wrting is 1.4334. My point is that the upside EURUSD momentum is gone.

GVI Forex john  10:53:44 GMT - 06/22/2011  
The 20-day moving average for many traders is the key to the trading tone of the markets. It comes in today at 1.4376. Above, the EURUSD should have a positive tone, below it should turn weaker.

For the record, the 50-day average comes in at 1.4413 based on Tuesday's closes.

This continues to look like a range-trading market.

I would love to get some feedback!

GVI Forex Jay  17:29:36 GMT - 06/21/2011  
GVI Forex john 17:08 GMT June 21, 2011 - My Profile
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The maximum value moving average of maturities we follow in EURUSD was the 50-day at 1.4414 yesterday. High today has been 1.4421. I feel positive vote for the current Greek government has been priced in.

GVI Forex

GVI Forex john  17:11:37 GMT - 06/21/2011  
The maximum value moving average of maturities we follow in EURUSD was the 50-day at 1.4414 yesterday. High today has been 1.4421. I feel positive vote for the current Greek government has been priced in.

Structurally, one can make the case that this is EURUSD positive, but some fundamental traders might say that it is stretched.

GVI Forex Jay  13:44:04 GMT - 06/21/2011  
I left this out in my morning update:

We show 1.4361 as the 20 day mva (and mid-bollinger band)

GVI Forex Jay  13:18:26 GMT - 06/21/2011  
This is from a RTRS recap (full report in our blog) and sums up the day pretty well:

LONDON, June 21 (Reuters) - The euro rose on Tuesday as investors bet Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou would survive a confidence vote crucial in helping the country avert a debt default.

Traders were wary of holding short euro positions going into the parliamentary vote due later in the day, and analysts saw only short-lived boost if it is passed as Greece must also vote on new austerity measures on June 28.

The euro EUR= was up 0.3 percent at $1.4355, with offers reported around $1.4380-85. It was expected to face stiff resistance ahead of $1.4500, with the 55-day moving average around $1.4411 ahead of the June 15 high at $1.4451....

GVI Forex  18:39:07 GMT - 06/20/2011  
One hour chart says enough with trendlines nicked on both ends. Shows how market has backed off awaiting events in Greece and also the FOMC meeting mid-week. Note the 100 hour mva (green line) that is starting to flatten out and could become supportive if it holds and turns up. Otherwise, it has just been an inside day and reaction to news will give the clue this week.

GVI Forex  01:20:22 GMT - 06/20/2011  
Interesting one hour chart - watch lines on both sides

GVI Forex Jay  15:34:02 GMT - 06/17/2011  
Market moved today in the direction of where the risk lied pre-weekend (see posts below) and as indicated in my Tech talk update on the FF this morning in a stops driven Friday session.

If "reversion to mean" is a move to the 20 day mva, then this is close to it (.,4343 =- 20 day mva)

High at 1.4339 made it unchanged on the week in the ultimate zero sum game. Upside capped while 1.4350 holds.

1.43 will set the tone into the close.

GVI Forex Jay  01:09:25 GMT - 06/17/2011  
Notice how the tone of the eur/usd shifts when above or below 1.42. By tone I mean how you feel when seeing the eur/usd below (feels offered) or above 1.42 (feels bid), especially the farther it moves from this level.

GVI Forex Jay  20:43:44 GMT - 06/16/2011  
Friday will be a thin day as many will likely step aside given headline risk and news that could come out over the weekend on Greece. This follows a Thursday session where the eur/usd took another hit but held off a run at 1.40 and closed above its 100 day mva (1.4152 on Friday) despite a break below it for the first time since February.

This leaves those trading at the mercy of stops, some just run above 1.42.

Using 1.4693-1.4071

1.4218 = 23.6% - just tested
1.4309 = 38.2%
1.4382 = 50%
1.4455 = 61.8%

Given the lack of obvious resistance (or stops) now that 1.42 has been taken out, look for 1.42 to set the tone on Friday.

1.4149 = daily pivot
1.4228 = R1
1.4279 = R2

GVI Forex Jay  19:38:29 GMT - 06/16/2011  
It looks like eur/usd will close above its 100 mva as stocks rebound so technical damage is not fatal.

GVI Forex  21:37:32 GMT - 06/15/2011  
EUR/USD stays on the defensive and while below 1.42 puts the following key levels at risk (only above 1.42 slows the risk)

1.4148 = 100 day mva (green line)
1.4000 = pivotal big figure
1.3968 = key May 23 low
1.3809 = 200 day mva (yellow line)

The significance of the 100 day mva is also that the last test of sub-1.40 paused just above it.

Greek headlines likely to dominate all markets the rest of the week. There could be some caution ahead of the weekend but not something I am currently looking to bet on.

GVI Forex Jay  17:59:31 GMT - 06/14/2011  
I posted this this morniong and no change. One reason for the reluctance to take out 1.45 is that euro crosses have been a key focus, so sort of a tug-of-war with the dollar caught in the middle.

In any case, 1.45 is clearly the level to watch as it will dictate whether the market treats the eur/usd plunge last week as a retracement or the precursor to a fresh bout of weakness as it will set the tone for this pair going forwards. It is also the mid-point of 1.43-1.47, which some may consider the current range although it is too tight to last for long.

GOT PK  11:41:15 GMT - 06/14/2011  
RKG - having basically the same count. for the downside i see more potential, 1.40 - 1.3969 window. reason; i have 1.4048 as first leg down from 1.4940. what happened thereafter was a large irregular move. so, equality from 1.4696, and recent low 1.3969 as a natural magnet if heading close. all bets off if above 1.4550 though.

GOT PK  11:25:18 GMT - 06/14/2011  

i have with utmost interest studied your concept. i´m not sceptical, any development of the basic idea that improves results is more than welcomed. but for someone who had Robert Balan (i presume you remember him) as mentor, re-learning would be like teaching an old dog to sit. classic rules are deeply rooted, like natural reflexes.
anyhow, i would like to ask you about something i believe is an anomaly. your impulsive waves are made up by three internal, ABC. however, the subwaves of each leg consist of five. is this not a contradiction?

B'lore RKG  10:48:33 GMT - 06/14/2011  

PK - agree with you, given my understanding of EW. Tried to label the entire upmove from 1.3968 and the attachment is what i can think of... if we turn lower from 1.4480, then 1.4278 is a minimum target. If this were to develop into a complex 4th with an 'x' in between, we might see 1.4550 before turning lower - 1.4136 is the farthest lower i see ...

Tokyo 19:09:02 GMT - 06/13/2011  
By "internal overlap" you mean the extremes of Wave (i) and (iv) overlap, the only places I see that are in consolidation phases and not trending phases. To me that is no problem. Since I feel Elliott made a misjudgment in the impulsive wave structure it also implies that there must be some adjustment in his rules - and considering this adjustment means we are using the equivalent of Prechter's Wave (a) it implies overlaps are possible.

In the example of the rally in EURUSD there were no overlaps.

Ensuring that waves are related is critical. Without that there is no ability to forecast. Most do not bother with wave relationships and the result is retrospective count fitting.

Ian Copsey

GOT PK  13:43:34 GMT - 06/13/2011  

your (iii) would then have an internal "overlap". according to classic EW that is not "allowed". appreciating if you elaborate on how this is seen by your Harmonic version. thanks.

Tokyo IDC  13:26:18 GMT - 06/13/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
I would like to point out that the rally from 1.2878 was actually a perfect impulsive wave. However, this can only be seen through the Harmonic Elliott Wave structure. The final high was a 66.7% projection in Wave (v).

Values were:
Wave (i) 1.3455
Wave (ii) 1.3242 38.2% + 7 points
Wave (iii) 1.4257 176.4% - 3 points
Wave (iv) 1.4020 23.6% + 3 points
Wave (v) 1.4939 66.7% - 1 point

This method of structural price development is a very simple adjustment to Elliott's original structure which was developed without the benefit of calculators or spreadsheets to identify common wave relationships. However, it generates a much higher level of accuracy in forecasting.

Ian Copsey

GVI Forex Jay  11:33:02 GMT - 06/13/2011  
We are still using 1.4320 as the low but (via GVI) it was pointed out that the overnight low was 1.4285 before most platforms opened.

As I have noted previously, I put the Monday high or low on my blotter for reference as the week winds on. The reason is there is often a late in the week move the other way if the high or low stays intact and gets some distance below or above it (as the case may be), especially if the high or low was set in early Monday trading.

GVI Forex  13:35:51 GMT - 06/11/2011  
Looking at the daily chart:

- 1.4330 = 20 day mva (red line, also 50% of 1.3968 - 1.4693)
- 1.4320 = Friday low and a possible double bottom (there was also a 1.4306 low that does not show up in our database so make 1.4306-20 a support zone)
- 1.4245 = 61.8%
- 1.4127 = 100 day mva (green line)*
- 1.3968 = May 23 low *

The 100 day mva and the 1.3968 low are most important: 100 day because it checked the downside below 1.40 and 1.3968 as a break would confirm a downtrend.

All that has happened so far is a reversion to the mean (20 day mva) and is still in the realm of a retracement.

On the upside, it is limited as long as it stays below 1.45. The week ahead will be a headline watcher with Greece back to page 1 but a decision is not likely until June 20 and US economic data watched closely. This report is a good one covering the week ahead's data:

Lloyds Economic Data Analysis

Feel free to comment. Prefer not to make this a monologue.

GVI Forex Jay  14:48:05 GMT - 06/10/2011  
1.4331 = 50% of 1.3968-1.4693

1.4319 = 20 day mva

1.4306 = key hourly support

Above 1.4415 area is needed to slow the risk but only above 1.4450 neutralizes.

As posted on: GVI Forex

London 14:12:54 GMT - 06/10/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:

a close below 1.42925 and it's all over, unless or course 2 is A, ? which it could be, and then we would need a close below 1.40523, but thats EW, I'm short and will remain short until the trend line breaks form the 8th June, high and then I'll be long again, as 27th May to 8th June close

GOT PK  13:33:11 GMT - 06/10/2011  
The obvious conclusion is that all the algos have turned EW fans :)) you got it right all the way until the last paragraph, but the "large count" is flawed. it´s not a 5 wave sequence.

London 13:02:40 GMT - 06/10/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
Take the 10th Jan Low @ 1.29078 and then the rally up to 1st Feb @ 1.38297 (we'll call this Elliot 1)

The retracement from this high is exactly 38.2% (so what I here you say) to the low of 15th Feb @ 1.34853 (we'll call this Elliot 2) - remember all wicks truncated

From this low to the next high on the 7th March @ 1.39887, you guessed it, we have a retracement of 38.2%, not approximately, not give or take, but to the pip. That's 44 days trading @ $2.64 trl per day, that makes $116.16 trl traded over 44 days, buy ten of thousands of people, all around the world, in different time zones, with different views, with different trading amounts, ect ect ect, and we stop at a 38.2% retracement to the pip. Isn’t that the equivalent of teeing off in golf and getting 116 trl whole in one's?

From here to the high of 21st March, there was another retracement, I bet you cant guess what it was, 38.2%, truncate the daily wicks as ever, now wait a minute, has everyone around the world got together on face book and said "only let it retrace 38.2% and then buy it again?, or, something like that?,

I could go on, but let's get to the point, we have a 1 2 3 4 5 (with extended 3rd Elliot count from the low of 10th Feb to the high of 2nd May, the low to the 13th of May (its another 38.2%) (A) correction move. The low from the 24th May to the high of 7th June, and guess where we are today (right this minute a 38.2% retracement, now, in the fractal nature of Elliot, the low of 10th Feb to the high of 2nd May we'll count as Elliot 1, that high to the low of 24th May we'll count as Elliot 2, so that means were about to enter Elliot 3, the big bull move up?? I don’t know, I don’t predict the future, (because I can't) I have no fundamental opinion of the markets whatsoever, but who's talking of raising rates, and who is talking about printing more money?

GVI Forex Jay  21:22:59 GMT - 06/09/2011  
For those not familiar with the term today was a liquidating market in the euro with stops squeezing out longs until it ran its course. I wish more would ask for GVI access (EMAIL me for details on a special offer) as one of our members gave a good heads up before Trichet spoke on how overbought euro the market was -- price action afterwards confirmed it and had us looking the right way.

Now for Friday - at some point eur/usd may get back into line with US stocks. Otherwise I expect a thin day where 1.45 sets the bias but only back above 1.4550-55 (daily pivot = 1.4548) negates the risk.

Laying out levels on both sides

Using 1.4693-1.4476, all levels are above 1.4555:br/>
1.4559 = 38.2%
1.4585 = 50%
1,4610 = 61.8%

Here are some levels between 1.44-1.45

1.4476 = Thursday low
1.4454 = 61.8% of 1.4306-1.4693
1.4451 = Minor june 3 low
1.4416 = 38.2% of 1.3968-1.4693
1.4415 = 50 day mva

Gut says look for a range session until the US comes in, especially as long as the 1.4476 low stays intact. Only a break of this low would set off fresh stops.

GVI Forex john  13:15:24 GMT - 06/08/2011  
Very difficult trade in the EURUSD. It seems just when momentum in one direction or another develops, it quickly dissipates. Personally I have a positive bias in the EURUSD fundamentally, but the charts are making me nervous. I am watching the Monday close of 1.4600 and then the low for the week of 1.4555 as critical.

I have to assume that a rate hike signal from ECB President Trichet on Thursday must be fully priced in. Stay quick on your feet!

GVI Forex Jay  20:18:24 GMT - 06/06/2011  
Tested the 1 hour trendline although 1.4500-50 is probably more important in keeping the bid. 1.4524 = 38.2% of 1.4306-1.4658

Test for the euro will likely come on Thursday during Trichet's press conference.

As earlier, most of the action came via euro crosses, which lost the bid after US stocks turned weak.

GVI Forex  17:44:01 GMT - 06/06/2011  
It is hard to draw conclusions from such a low volaitlity, low volume day. I posted a one hour chart to put the price action in perspective. There is a trendline that is the first area of support in the absence of any other levels but seems the 100 hour mva (green line) is important in maintaining a bid.

On the upside, as I noted earlier, 1.4650 is likely to function as a sentiment indicator as above it would be needed to shift the risk to 1.48.

In the US, stocks are down and that is weighing a little on the euro as market goes back to the fx-stock correlation after abandoning it last Friday.

JERUSALEM KB  17:39:19 GMT - 06/05/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
daily MACD back to trade above zero line let us see if it will hold

JERUSALEM KB  17:36:15 GMT - 06/05/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
eurusd h4 chart show a new support(green trend line) which may hold any pull back(now at 1.4475 and rising).
having eye on it

GVI Forex  18:27:27 GMT - 06/03/2011  
Interesting monthly chart:

Back above the old downtrendline in June
Held the 50 month mva in May (purple)
Within the bollinger bands

Going forwards, 1.4650 will be pivotal in whether the focus is on 1.45 or 1.48 with few chart points in between.

GVI Forex  10:35:15 GMT - 06/03/2011  
I have no clue whether thuis is still valid but there was chatter in the Far East about eur/usd stops at 1.4520-40.

GVI Forex Jay  18:00:41 GMT - 06/02/2011  
I posted this earlier on GVI Forex and thought it worth posting here given events today:

GVI Forex Jay 12:17 GMT June 2, 2011 - My Profile
Tech Talk - EURUSD : Reply
From a daily report I receive and worth posting here:

Everybody scratching their heads about EURUSD and to why it’s up here after yesterday’s risk rout. I think the better question is why did it sell off yesterday? My theory is that EURUSD trades in two phases: either full out panic over the peripherals; or, reverts to following yield differentials. Given the fret about Greece has receded in recent days as we await the end of the troika mission, renewed chatter of QE3 presses yield spreads in favour of EURUSD again.

GVI Forex Jay  00:44:50 GMT - 06/02/2011  
Using 1.,4458-1.4306:

1.4364 = 38.2%
1.4382 = 50%
1.4400 = 61.8%

GVI Forex Jay  20:25:08 GMT - 06/01/2011  
Quite a day and eur/usd retreating after completing a 50%retracement of 1.4939-1.3968. Looking at the downside, the close beloiw the 50 day mva (1.4357) and 1.4345 (breakout) has cooled the upside risk.

However, in this case, it is weak US stocks leading fx so have to keep an eye on that market.

Looking at support, 1.4292 was last week's close (reference level so still up on the week) and 1.4270 = 38.2% of 1.3968-1.4458. Minor support is at 1.4320.

Initial resistance is at 1.4345-60, above this area would be needed to ease the retracement risk.

GVI Forex Jay  00:56:02 GMT - 05/31/2011  
I posted this on GVI Forex just now:

For this "Greek news" led eur/usd bounce to gain traction, eur/chf would probably need to firm as well (i.e. 1.22+). It is currently close to unchanged from Monday's close (1.2174).

GVI Forex Jay  00:28:05 GMT - 05/31/2011  
The stop hunt was a day late and it looks like news to break the Greece impasse is behind it. Don't fight the tape and let it play itself out -- see GVI Forex 10:46:46 GMT - 05/28/2011 (below) for levels I posted over the weekend.

Key for the close is the 50 day mva (1.4353).

200 hour mva currently 1.4417

JERUSALEM KB  17:45:37 GMT - 05/29/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
as per monthly chart , see how the price react strongly to broken ress.turned into support and it is highly possible to complet the 2nd wing of bullish butterfly pattern(1.5680 i am talking about long term),as long as the broken trend line holds.

GVI Forex  10:46:46 GMT - 05/28/2011  
Given the way the eur/usd closed the week and a Monday where liquidity will be an issue with the US and UK closed, there is a perfect setup for a stop hunt during the Aussie-NZ session. If there is not a stop hunt, it would say something about the euro but this is the risk:

I have no info about stops so will post levels on top worth noting:

1.4323 = 20 day mva
1.4339 = 38.2% of 1.4939 - 1.3968
1.4345 = key May 20 high
1.4352 = 50 day mva
1.44xx = 200 4 hour mva (yellow line on chart)- currently 1.4421
1.4423 = May 11 high
1.4454 = 50%
1.4500 = pivotal big figure
1.4569 = 61.8%

Below 1.43 would slow the risk but only below 1.42 would negate it.

GVI Forex Jay  11:19:51 GMT - 05/27/2011  
Monday Effect:

I have referred to this in the past as the "Friday Effect" but I think the "Monday Effect" is a better term.

What this refers to is a week when the low or high is set on a Monday (especially early Monday) and stays untouched as the week winds on. This risks a move the other way in the latter part of the week as those positioned for a new low (or high as the case may be) give up the fight and liquidate those positions. This sometimes happens on Thursday but when it happens on a Friday it is harder to fight as there are less to take the side of the liquidations.

This is why I make a note of Monday's high and low and keep an eye on them as the week progfresses.

Today is an example of a Monday Effect with the eur/usd setting its low on Monday and then making a sharp move up on Friday as disappointed shorts get squeezed.

There was a Monday Effect last week as well in a similar pattern except the correction higher came on Thursday and stalled early Friday. As noted Friday moves can be harder to fight.

Note I have not done any empirical work on this and only observed it in the eur/usd but it is probably true for pairs.

GVI Forex Jay  15:35:55 GMT - 05/26/2011  
I gave an example of how to micro trade spot using crosses but today was a prime example of crosses leading spot - put up just about any euro cross chart and you will see why the eur/usd reversed direction and fell sharply. Trying to bottom pick when euro crosses are leading the way is like standing in front of a bullet train. Once crosses stabilize, some of the pressure comes off the eur/usd.

Please feel free to comment or ask questions. Crosses are a good guide.

GVI Forex john  11:37:06 GMT - 05/26/2011  
Maybe the very broad technical trend is down, but intermediate trends as measured by moving averages are in limbo.

Nevertheless we currently are in a range market and that has profound trading implications. I'm wondering if as London ex suggested yesterday if the EURUSD is forming a head and shoulders formation on the daily chart.

This would require topping out below 1.4500 and then breaking through 1.3969. That is a lot to accomplish.

GVI Forex Jay  11:27:41 GMT - 05/26/2011  
I see Friday as the key day. From my earlier report:

EUR/USD building on a 3rd day of higher lows to take out this week's high in what seems to be the pattern after a low for the week was set on Monday (similar to last week). One reason for caution may be the way the euro has sold off on Fridays after failed mid-week corrections and this could be a restraint today. The question is what happens if the euro does not sell-off tomorrow with liquidity thin ahead of a long US holiday weekend.

GVI Forex Jay  17:09:09 GMT - 05/25/2011  
John, I think consolidation is a better word than range as the technical trend is still down.

GVI Forex john  16:56:14 GMT - 05/25/2011  
I haven't got a lot to say here because I find range markets difficult to trade. In any case, I feel knowing whether you are in a trend or a range market is THE most important thing to determine when trading.

One thing I think I might have picked up is that the EURUSD to S&P correlation tends to kick in strongly in range markets. This could be a key clue in figuring out how you should be trading.

GVI Forex Jay  16:31:01 GMT - 05/25/2011  
Is anyone involved in this chop? My view is to treat euro rallies as bear market rallies unless technicals say otherwise. For this I am using lower tops this week at 1.4143, 1.4132, 1.4118 (today). On the other side, there have been higher lows each day this week (1.3968, 1.4000, 1.4013) as well, contributing to the chop as the euro focus has been on its crosses.

This feels like it is setting up for a showdown as the range compresses. Most forceasts are for a drop below 1.40 into the 1.37s but betting on the breakdown has not worked this week unless you took your profits.

What proved true is my earlier comment about other currencies setting the dollar tone.

Trying to be objective here so comments welcomed.

GVI Forex Jay  10:52:08 GMT - 05/25/2011  
Using crosses to trade spot:

In this multi-currency world, cross flows account for a good part of spot movements. In the old days all you cared about is the dollar but look at today, eur/usd is lower while usd/chf is lower and gbp/usd is higher. So today would be an easy day to explain how crosses impact spot but I will use an example from yesterday to illustrate how crosses can impact on a micro basis.

All a cross is a 2 variable equation. Take eur/jpy as an example, eur/usd x usd/jpy = eur/jpy. For the cross to move higher, either eur/usd moves up more than usd/jpy moves down, usd/jpy moves up more than eur/usd moves down or both pairs move up.

Here is an example how to use crosses for a clue:

The eur/usd was bid yesterday and one reason was a better tone to some of its crosses (the opposite of today), specifically eur/jpy.

- eur/usd was at 1.4310
- usd/jpy was moving higher
- eur/jpy was firming, suggesting a buy order in this cross
- key usd/jpy resistance was 82.23

So what happened.
- usd/jpy bid out eur/jpy demand, firmed until it met resistance at 82.21, just below 82.23 key resistance.
- eur/jpy was still moving up but with usd/jpy meeting resistance, offset buying of eur/usd took over
- eur/usd moved up through 1.4125 (stops) until peaking at 1.4232, which coincided with eur/jpy peaking as well, suggesting the buy order in eur/jpy had been completed. The eur/usd lost some of its bid and usd/jpy steadied.

Here is the point of this example. If you can identify a cross move that is influencing spot, there are only two variables (i.e. currency pairs) that will influence it. If one of the variables finds support or meets resistance (as the case may be), the only way the cross can move is if the other pair moves.

The other point is that identifying the crosses influencing the spot pair you are trading can give you a clue as to what is driving the spot rate at any point of time.

I have just scratched the surface with an example that I find easier to identify. I will be glad to continue this discussion so feel free to post your comments.

So Cali MJ  00:54:46 GMT - 05/25/2011  
I'm interested Jay

GVI Forex Jay  00:35:52 GMT - 05/25/2011  
Using crosses to trade spot:

I would like to show how you can use crosses to give a clue how to trade spot but do not want to give a lecture. So if anyone is interested I will be glad to post an update on it but need to see some interest first.

GVI Forex  13:03:01 GMT - 05/24/2011  
Daily chart is interesting as key levels are clear at the 100 day mva (green) and 50 day mva (purple). There is also the downtrendline at 1.4265.The market has paid notice to the pause just above the 100 day mva.

What I noted yesterday and again this morning is to be on watch to see if we see a replay of last week where the eur/usd set its low Monday and then reluctantly corrected. It was a lousy trading market during last week's correction until the bottom fell out on Friday.

Note retracement levels post in Tech Talk on the FF earlier.

eu pat  18:43:33 GMT - 05/23/2011  
tt,technicaly we are still at uptrend of channel was a strong rezistence. middle of channel was a rezistence/after broken before/ as well last week.of course, there were more technical points as ma, fibo etc.but question is: started at the top new big downtrend or only big correction.At short term i think we are at downtrend and potential target is bottom of the channel, eventually 200 ma daily chart.but for me is mainly fundamental analyze and i think its hard to say now whats hapend next we are staying in front of 100ma daily, 200 ma weekly and very strong psychological support 1,40.i am bearish last time and i will be, but i like long positions scalping as well...

GVI Forex Jay  18:23:03 GMT - 05/23/2011  
This article is worth reading:

“The FX market has lost its anchor of reason”

Chicago tt  16:48:38 GMT - 05/23/2011  
Are you saying the longer term trend is still up and this is a bear market rally for the usd?

eu pat  16:17:37 GMT - 05/23/2011  
I posted a short term chanels to show my technical wiew on the trend last week.Now I want to show my long term chanel on weekly timeframe.

GVI Forex Jay  15:14:19 GMT - 05/23/2011  
50" level proving to be a good one today

Feel free to commnt, ask questions or add your view.

GVI Forex Jay  14:14:03 GMT - 05/23/2011  
Note high just now was 1.4048, shy of the 1.4050 mood changer, caps upside while below it.

1.4058 = 23.6% of 1.4345-1.3969, but would need to get through 1.4050 to expose it.

1.4113 = 38.2% to put price action in perspective.

GVI Forex  13:40:29 GMT - 05/23/2011  
One year daily eur/usd chart

GVI Forex john  13:39:59 GMT - 05/23/2011  
Remarkable how fast we have been taking out the benchmark daily moving average levels. At this point, I view the remaining unbreached ones more as confirmation more than trading signals. The 100-day average closed Friday at 1.3960. The 200-day average naturally is quite distant at 1.3665. The 50-day average (on top) is 1.4340.

GVI Forex Jay  13:31:17 GMT - 05/23/2011  
No change to what I posted earlier:

So look no farther than 1.40 as the focus as below it exposes the following while back above 1.4046 (suggests 1.4050 as important) would be needed to postpone the risk.

Suggests cautious trading while 1.40 stays the focus but limited upside while below 1.4046. Mood only changes if 1.4050+ trades.

Add 1.3907 = 50% of the 2011 range to the levels I cited earlier on the FF.

GVI Forex Jay  22:15:06 GMT - 05/22/2011  
Tks KB for me figuring out the strong side to trade is more than half the battle

JERUSALEM KB  22:06:15 GMT - 05/22/2011  
yes i do

GVI Forex Jay  22:05:01 GMT - 05/22/2011  
Do you use 20 period mva on all time frames

JERUSALEM KB  22:00:17 GMT - 05/22/2011  
this is true jay trendlines and broken trendlines may help to show the next move beside candlestick & the MIDDLE BOLLINGER BAND (ma 20) it is very important in my trade too.(if we made a combination between them it may generate a good signals).

GVI Forex Jay  21:45:29 GMT - 05/22/2011  
KB, I noticed that trendlines and broken trendlines are an important part of your analysis. I place a high priority on trendlines and broken lines as well. Broken lines often act as strong support or resistance.

JERUSALEM KB  18:32:57 GMT - 05/22/2011  

JERUSALEM KB  18:31:15 GMT - 05/22/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
dail chart , break of 1.4048 may target 1.3712 /1.3488 as long as 1.4377holds.
macd is trading below zero level , RSI IS BELOW 50 LEVEL

JERUSALEM KB  18:27:00 GMT - 05/22/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
Nothing changed in the weekly chart , we still trading in rising channel and price did not even reach the broken ress. Turned into support yet.
We are above the middle Bollinger band,rsi above 50level MACD looks like it it preparing for a lower high!!

JERUSALEM KB  18:20:37 GMT - 05/22/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
Eurusd as per monthly chart , I am waiting to see if the current candle which is retesting the broken ress. Turned into support(magenta trend line) will close below it or above it.
In this case current price action formed a new monthly ress. Which looks valid.
MACD is above zero line , RSI is above 50 level.

GVI Forex Jay  20:59:29 GMT - 05/20/2011  
One tip is to watch for patterns as the market willt rade one way when the patterns go on and another way once broken. Here are a few examples for the past week:

1) EUR/USD traded two ways in a narrowingt range when it kept printing 1.42, which happened 6 days in a row

2) It made a run for the upside Thursday when this pattern was broken (low that day was 1.4204).

3) On Friday, a string of 4 consecutive higher closes was broken and momentum picked up to the downside once it traded solidly below yesterday's 1.4308 high.

Feel free to mention other patterns that you see. Good place for a weekend discussion.

GVI Forex  20:27:45 GMT - 05/20/2011  
Although closing up on the week the eur/usd is closing soft and about 200 pips down from its 1.4345 intra-day high. I have to give credit to Al who aptly pointed out the importance of the 50 day mva in last weekend's video, especially on a closing basis. Many cited the 55 day mva but the daily chart (above) shows how the 50 day mva capped the upside.

I will let Al lay out the scenarios in his weekend videos.

GVI Forex Jay  13:58:11 GMT - 05/20/2011  
Outside day with the break of 1.4204.

61.8% of this week's 1.4048-1.4345 = 1.4161

Above 1.4204 is needed to ease the risk

GVI Forex Jay  11:08:26 GMT - 05/20/2011  
Reference my 10:33 GMT post on the Forex Forum

Performing technically:

1.4235 low vs. 1.4232 = 38.2%

1.4250 sets the tone from here.

GVI Forex  20:34:17 GMT - 05/19/2011  
I have been harping all week about the eur/usd trading pattern around 1.42, which was 6 days in a row until broken today. I almost got tired of repeating it but have seen this happen too often to ignore the setup.

As I noted, a break of this pattern often signals a directional move and this is what occurred on Thursday (low 1.4204) although I must admit it appeared to be a reluctant one.

Now this is still an uphill battle as the euro as many remain skeptical/bearish but short term technicals have turned to the upside (see one hour chart) so I will list resistance levels to watch ahead of 1.45 (most important seems to be 1.4334-39 and the 1.4490 area. )<

1.4325 = Thursday high (also the 50 day mva)
1.4334 = 50 day mva for Friday (needs close abvoe it)
1.4339 = May 13 high
1.4388 = 382% of 1.4939-1.4048
1.4395 (current one hour channel top - adjust as time passes)
1.4423 = May 11 high
1.4490 = 20 day mva 1.4394 = 50% of 1.4048-1.4939

Support levels are not significant unless 1.42 is breached but would probably need to hold 1.4287 (Thursday's mini breakout) to keep the focus on 1.43+

GVI Forex john  17:26:06 GMT - 05/19/2011  
Well we have managed to break through the top of my 1.4200-1.4300 trading range. Even giving it a fair margin of error. 1.4325 constitutes a break. This is an interesting market because traders appear to have no confidence in pressing the topside any higher. Buying up here looks to be moderate short-covering. We are still seeing no signs of diversification demand for EUR.

GVI Forex Jay  12:25:59 GMT - 05/19/2011  
John the 2-day range has been 1.4193-1.4305 so 1.42-1.43 seems logical - I have a tendency to underestimate ranges so do not think this is one that will last for long. Either the market makes a run again for 1.40 or goes for 1.44-1.45. The latter is hard while the Greek cloud hovers over.

You could also make a case for 1.41-1.43 if the upper end holds. You could also make a case for 1.42-1.44 if the bottom end holds.

Southport UK dhm  12:23:23 GMT - 05/19/2011  
Triangle consolidation with very narrow range - would expect another touch of top - another failure, and I am looking for a break of triangle to the downside to retest 14021-14036 zone

GVI Forex john  12:04:07 GMT - 05/19/2011  
As is clear from my posts, I am very fond of watching moving averages to get a handle on where the flows are. The most important levels for short-term trends obviously are the short-term moving averages. The 20-day moving average closed yesterday at 1.4502, so it will be hard to muster much upside momentum.

It looks to me as though we are in a rough 1.4200 to 1.4300 trading range for now. Today sees a slew of U.S. data which COULD move prices.

Can anyone else offer some more precise trading ranges?

GVI Forex  21:00:12 GMT - 05/18/2011  
Will 1.42 trade again?

While we look at charts, the algos have honed in on the risk on/off correlations although it turned a little sketchy between the euro and stocks after the FOMC minutes.

Going by the charts, eur/usd comes into the day having traded on both sides of 1.42 in each of the past 6 days. This will be a key level to watch the rest of the week as a break of this pattern often signals a directional move. If 1.42 prints again, it would dempen the retracement risk.

Another level to watch on the downside is the 100 hour mva (green line), which is like a flatline and helped check the downside on Wednesday.

Re the upside, 1.4280-00 remains a tough zone with key levels lyiing above it, 1.4324 = 50 day mva and 1.4339 = key May 13 high. Wednesday's high was 1.4287 set before the US session. The US session high was 1.4282. Otherwise we are in for more choppy trade.

This is where we stand heading into an uncertain Thursday where you can make a case for a further retracement (if 1.42+ trades) but would need to see 1.43+ cleared to put key levels (cited above) at risk.

Daily pivot is 1.4238

R1 = 1.4282
S1 = 1.4188

GVI Forex Jay  16:23:32 GMT - 05/18/2011  
The way the eur/usd bounced off the levels below 1.42 (note also the 100 hour mva just below as well), it makes one believe in technicals. Part of my approach is to look for the most commonly looked at indicators for when they hold (or are broken as the case may be), it is more likely to trigger a technical reaction.

Just my KISS approach to trading.

Intra-day, eur/usd 1.4277 resistance stands in front of the 1.4286 high.

GVI Forex Jay  14:24:42 GMT - 05/18/2011  
Pretty good levels below 1.42 for the bounce but would have to get back above 1.4236 to give it life.

GVI Forex Jay  13:26:36 GMT - 05/18/2011  
1.4195 = 38.2% of 1.4048-1.4286
1.4194 = daily pivot

1.4197 = intra-day low

GVI Forex Jay  13:11:24 GMT - 05/18/2011  
1.42 prints, 6th day in a row - was the risk once 1.4236 failed to hold but to be honest, was a technical but not a strong conviction call.

As posted earlier on the FF
Below 1.4236 would put 1.42 in play again.

GVI Forex Jay  12:57:27 GMT - 05/18/2011  
Had the right idea overnight but too many headwinds to hold, especially after 1.4236 didn't hold. Now let's see if 1.42 can print for the 6th day.

Thinking ahead, the window for the dollar going up will be until after mid-day when the focus starts to shift to the FOMC minutes. Test comes afterwards to see if the dollar holds up assuming minutes are dovish.

In the meantime, we are back to stocks commodities watching and stocks, commodities are watching the dollar.

GVI Forex Jay  20:28:22 GMT - 05/17/2011  

Wednesday could be a pivotal day with the eur/usd having extended its trade around 1.42 for the 5th day in a row on Tuesday. When put in perspective of a market trying to make a run at 1.40, the way it keeps coming back to 1.42 could be taken as a tentative bullish sign but only if this pattern is broken to the upside (i.e. 1.42 becomes support). See below for resistance levels and what it would take to fuel a correction:

1.4244 = Monday’s high
1.4257 = 23.6% of 1.4939-1.4046
1.4294 = former monthly down trendline broken in April
1.4317 = 50 day mva (close above would be bullish)
1.4339 = key May 13 high
1.4387 = 38.2%
1.4423 = key May 11 high
1.4493 = 50%

On the downside, there are no key levels until 1.4048 so we prefer to focus on 1.42 as a guide to sentiment in this pair, both as a spot rate and in relation to the 5 day pattern cited above.

Also, note since topping at 1.4939 on May 4, there have only been two days with higher lows and two days with a higher highs, none in succession. Tuesday saw a higher low so if Wednesday can extend that to two days in a row, it would add to the retracement risk if accompanied by a higher high.

GVI Forex john  18:39:45 GMT - 05/17/2011  
Next hour or so ONLY...

I'm thinking the S&P is reading to sell off. If it does, EURUSD should follow?

GVI Forex Jay  13:47:29 GMT - 05/17/2011  
Performing technically (low was 1.4123)

GOT PK 13:43 GMT May 17, 2011 - My Profile
Tech Talk - EURUSD: Reply
1.4048 - 1.4244.

GVI Forex Jay 13:41 GMT May 17, 2011
Tech Talk - EURUSD: Reply
OK, pls elaborate

GOT PK 13:35 GMT May 17, 2011 - My Profile
Tech Talk - EURUSD: Reply
hit 61.8 retracement from the low (1.4123)

As posted on GVI Forex

GVI Forex john  13:28:34 GMT - 05/17/2011  
Sounds like a broken record. Major trading levels for me are both psychological and on the charts: 1.4000 and 1.4250. Fittingly, the pivot point based on Mondays range is 1.4158 (also old support).

I still treat this as a range market.

southport uk dhm  08:37:20 GMT - 05/17/2011  
Day close was under RES line - would expect another test of the line this week with a failure to target the 100 day MA around 1.3933

GVI Forex  14:32:06 GMT - 05/16/2011  
You can also use the monthly trendline, which I have been focusing on and that comes in at 1.4294 (on my chart but you may show it a little different as it is easy to have differences using monthly charts). This line comes in around the 50 day mva, which Al pointed out would need a close above to change the picture.

You daily line is interesting as it is around the 1.42 level, which has now printed 4 days in a row. Given that new lows have been set on 3 of those 4 days (including today) but keeps coming back to it, it could be an early warning sign unless it becomes resistance. The longer a pattern like this goes on, the greater the risk of a directional move once it is broken. This is not a bullish call (as yet) but something to keep an eye on.

Re charts, you can zoom in by clicking on a chart once opened.

southport uk dmh  14:22:36 GMT - 05/16/2011  
same chart, zoomed in

southport uk dhm  14:21:50 GMT - 05/16/2011  
Former res line off July 08 and Dec 09 high comes in around 1.4195.

Last Friday the close was under this line - at present price is now above this line - a close above this line would be encouraging for euro to retrace more significantly imo.

GVI Forex john  13:21:44 GMT - 05/16/2011  
Lots of levels mentioned below. The EURUSD has already tested what I feel HAD been an important resistance (previously support) line at 1.4157. I would not like to see it penetrated again. Major trading levels for me are both psychological and on the charts: 1.4000 and 1.4250.

For now I treat this as a range market.

GVI Forex Jay  11:08:57 GMT - 05/16/2011  
Add this level to the list I posted over the weekend:

1.3907 = 50% of 1.2875 - 1.4939 (2011 range)

JERUSALEM KB  19:36:08 GMT - 05/15/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
daily chart:
ma 200 red
ma 100 black
ma 55 magneta

JERUSALEM KB  18:18:40 GMT - 05/15/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
as per weekly chart we are above two strong support and rsi is above 50level(or testing 50level)
macd above zero line

GVI Forex  12:47:58 GMT - 05/15/2011  
EUR/USD daily chart (click on the chart once opened to enlarge). See below for mva levels.

GVI Forex Jay  10:33:39 GMT - 05/14/2011  
What an end to the week when the Monday effect took over. The Monday effect is where the high or low for the week is set on Monday and when it holds as the high or low for the week, it often sends a directional move the other way towards the latter part of the week.

While it looks easy in hindsight, each new low last week was followed by a sharp retracement, which shook out weak shorts and setup a run to the next new low.

1.4153 => 1.4411
1.4121 => 1.4339
1.4064 => ??

So the question is whether the market makes a run at 1.40 out of the box or follows the pattern of needing a failed retracement first. Complicating is Greece, the EcoFin meetings on Monday and Tuesday and what news on a bailout come from it.

Looking at levels:

Key levels on 1.40xx are:

1.4059 = April 1 low vs. 1.4064 Friday low
1.4019 = March 28 low

Should 1.40 give way then

1.3910 = 100 day mva - often a key indicator for the eur/usd
1.3852 = March 15 low
1.3750 = March 11 low
1.3636 = 200 day mva

Shows how important 1.40 is in checking the downside.

Back above 1.4155 would be needed to slow the risk, 1.42+ to slow it further but only a close above the 50 day mva at 1.4306 (as Al pointed out in his video) would suggest a change in the pattern and argue that a low might be in place.

GVI Forex Jay  16:26:08 GMT - 05/13/2011  
Outside day

Key levels on 1.40xx are:

1.4059 = April 1 low
1.4019 = March 28 low

Should 1.40 give way then

1.3912 = 100 day mva
1.3852 = March 15 low
1.3750 = March 11 low
1.3637 = 200 day mva

SHows how important 1.40 is in checking the downside.

Back above 1.4121 would be needed to slow the risk, 1.42+ to neutralize.


GVI Forex Jay  15:47:07 GMT - 05/13/2011  
In a trend market (in this case a bear market), you often see sharp moves following failed retracements as there are fewer positions with the trend left to absorb fresh selling (or buying as the case may be). With hindsight, this is what happened with the eur/usd today as the market moved to "risk off" ahead of the weekend.

Minneapolis DRS2  15:43:39 GMT - 05/13/2011  
As a long-term trade, I've liked EUR/USD short for quite a few months now. However, I'll go out on a limb and say that in the short term...I think the pair is due for a bounce.

So...I would look for a bounce somewhere between now and 1.4050, and then MAYBE do a short between 1.4400 and 1.4450 depending on price action at the time. There is a lot of consistent buying and selling right now, but also a lot of stop hunting in both directions. This is consistent with the general consensus (of which there is none at present) regarding commodity prices, continued QE from the FRB, etc

GVI Forex Jay  15:25:13 GMT - 05/13/2011  
John, as you know after all these years working together, I have a tendency to underestimate ranges, like today when I thought it would trade a range above 1.42. Maybe it is my logical mind in an often illogical market. Today it is only an opportunity cost as I was short earlier but did not anticipate the extent of the move.

GVI Forex Jay  13:38:37 GMT - 05/13/2011  
1 hour trendline currently 1.4225

GVI Forex john  11:36:17 GMT - 05/13/2011  
Jay relating to some of the levels you cite, we are currently trading dead on the 1.4277 daily pivot point in EURUSD and the the first pivot resistance level is 1.4370 (1.4339 high).

I'm looking for a range session for the rest of the day. It might take some unexpected news to create another bout of volatility. I still see this more as a range, as opposed to a trend market, for now.

GVI Forex  11:06:47 GMT - 05/13/2011  
Note one hour chart and the eur/usd squeeze. 100 hour mva (green line) is currently around 1.43 so would need to establish above it to suggest more legs to this retracement. Otherwise, there is not much in the 1.43-1.44 area to go after other than the intra-day 1.4439 high. Same for 1.42-1.43 other than the trendline (currently 1.4215). Click on the chart once opened to zoom in.

shanghai 02:33:43 GMT - 05/13/2011  
Hello, Jay. I just follow your KISS rule and make a very simple strategy to guess the top or bottom and enter it with narrow SL. I don't care about Japan candle too much in order to make my strategy simple and stupid.

GVI Forex Jay  19:00:25 GMT - 05/12/2011  
I asked this morning whether the break of 1.4155 was 'mission accomplished" or the trigger for a run at 1.40. So far it has been the former but it is an uphill climb to negate the latter risk.

So much is being driven by margin calls and the merry-go-round liquidations that follow that it is easy to explain what has gone on but hard to anticipate what comes next as more liquidations are needed to fuel the current moves.

Greece for me is a sideshow that will see its can kicked down the road. Maybe in a few weeks we will be on Trichet watch and whether he utters vigilance.

In the meantime, all markets are trading off the same risk so essentially one global market feeding off each other. It is hard to argue for risk on in this environment but question is how much risk off is already factored in. I wish I had something more insightful to say.

Using this week's 1.4122-1.4441 range, 1.4282 = 50% vs. a Thursday high at 1.4276. 1.4319 = 61.8%. Last week's close was 1.4346.

We are getting a lot of clicks to this thread and would like to see some discussion so feel free to post your comments.

GVI Forex john  16:05:03 GMT - 05/12/2011  
Shanghai- Great call. Your level proved to be a great price to buy against! I show 1.4123 or 1.4121 (two sources) as the LOD. Personally, I would probably have taken profits by now or here (1.4230). I wonder what your trading strategy is?

GVI Forex Jay  15:51:16 GMT - 05/12/2011  
1 hour trendline is currently 1.4282, which is also 50% of this week's 1.4441-1.4122 range. See chart in prior post.

1.4250 will set the tone from here.

GVI Forex  15:16:17 GMT - 05/12/2011  
One hour chart shows 1.4234 is key resistance along with the former low this week at 1.4253 broken yesterday. Above these levels would be needed to shift the picture. Click on the chart once opened to zoom in.

Otherwise, as Mel would say, eur/usd appears bid in an offered market.

Shanghai 06:46:54 GMT - 05/12/2011  
I believe 1.4130 would be support for eu to bounce off.

GVI Forex  23:31:50 GMT - 05/11/2011  
Using the one hour chart, the key level is Monday's 1.4253 low broken Wednesday enroute to a 1.4170 low, just 15 pips above the key 1.4155 support (which led to a pause). Market will be bearish and likely sell on blips while below 1.4253 although could see some two-way if in 1.4200-50. . Above it would cool but not negate the risk to 1.4155 and below.

GVI Forex  23:17:29 GMT - 05/11/2011  
4 Hour Chart

There is a lot being made about the eur/usd failure below the 200 4 hour mva today and subsequent sell-off. See chart (yellow line) and keep an eye on this indicator going forwards as a guide. Market will be in a sell mode while below it.

GVI Forex Jay  16:33:29 GMT - 05/11/2011  
1.4200 and 1.4155 are next on the radar, below that is 1.4059 and 1.4019. Above 1.4256 would be needed to slow the risk.

It is more commodities than fx driving at the moment.

GVI Forex john  16:29:45 GMT - 05/11/2011  
Seeing next major EURUSD support at 1.4155 ?

Any other levels??

GVI Forex Jay  13:45:58 GMT - 05/11/2011  
Good posts by John (see below) on the risk.


Battle still below 1.43 --

1.4294 (former monthly trendline), has traded each day this week without a close below it.

1.4292 = 50 day mva (tested or close to each day this week without a close below)

1.4293 = intra-day low 9so far)

1.4367 - Tues low

1.4253 = Monday low

GVI Forex john  11:28:23 GMT - 05/11/2011  
My view is unchanged. We have moved into a range market for now and that has major implications for trading technique. The focus now should be on support and resistance levels and less on momentum indicators.

Jay has cited the 1.4400 level as a key level to watch. I note that the pivot point based on Tuesdays trade is at 1.4401 for today. A move through the pivot point tends to change the psychology of the markets. Below keeps the EURUSD in limbo.

Your comments and contributions encouraged.

GVI Forex john  22:41:54 GMT - 05/10/2011  
As suggested below, the key daily MACD has turned negative with the 5-day 1.4491 and the 20-day 1.4565. Based on this momentum parameter the EURUSD is no longer in a short-term uptrend.

You have to look for confirmation from other sources and the trend-lines are mixed. I think you have to look for a range-trading market for now.

Any other opinions/ideas?

GVI Forex Jay  22:11:09 GMT - 05/10/2011  

1.4416 = 23.6% of 1.4939-1.4254
1.4441 = Monday's high (also around the 200 4 hour mva)
1.4463 = former daily trendline
1.4500 = pivotal big fig (also around steep down sloped 100 hour mva - currently)
1.4516 = 38.2%

1.4395 (former intra-day support)
Scattered from 1.4320-80
More important below 1.43

GVI Forex Jay  19:21:35 GMT - 05/10/2011  
I posted this on GVI and was giving up hope the eur/usd would rally even though crosses pointed that way. Note firmer commodities as well as stocks suggests "risk on" day.

GVI Forex Jay 18:17 GMT May 10, 2011 - My Profile
Tech Talk - EURUSD: Reply
It has been a very slow day here with the focus continuing to be on euro crosses. Firmer crosses, meanwhile, point to easing concern over Greece (?) and that argues for a firmer eur/usd but it has been a struggle although above 1.4350 gives it a better feel.

This is what logic says - if Greece concerns ease, then eur/usd should at least retrace to around 1.45, where it took a hit last Friday on the Greece news. However, price action has been a struggle today and shows the hangover from the sell-off so not sure what to suggest if eur/usd cannot rally given strong cross demand.

One technical note - eur/usd has tested below its former monthly trendline (1.4294) but has not been able to sustain it. Same for tests of its 50 day mva. These are closing levels to watch on the downside.

On the upside, key is the former daily trendline, which i show at 1.4463 on Wednesday (John shows it a touch higher). Only a close above it would ease risk on the downside.

Sums up a dull day.

GVI Forex Jay  15:25:48 GMT - 05/10/2011  
Daily pivot is 1.4348 and past two day's closes 1.4350 and 1.4346.

It is hard to draw implications as yet but given how bearish the news has been, eur/usd has not moved far from 1.4350.

However, today should have seen a stronger push up given how euro crosses are trading (firmer) but most of the movement has been in the offset currencies, such as usd/jpy and usd/chf.

In any case, this suggests 1.4350 will give a clue going forwards. I call 1.43-1.44 a no man's land (i.e. means no levels of significance) on an inside day.

Open to other ideas.

GVI Forex john  15:10:51 GMT - 05/10/2011  
Hate to keep harping on this but the old (steep) uptrend line in EURUSD came in today at 1.4466. Problem with a TREND is that it has to be sustained or it dies. Holding even is not good enough. Key point to watch now is the 50-day moving average at 1.4279. The 20-day average is now distant at 1.4569.

The 5-day mva will break through the 20-day avg on the close today. This is a key momentum metric.

GVI Forex  11:57:16 GMT - 05/10/2011  
One hour chart showing signs of a bottom but as noted earlier, needs to get through 1.4375-80 (just tested).

JERUSALEM KB  18:45:36 GMT - 05/09/2011  
yes it is .
need a close above 1hr trend line to go long for few pips

GVI Forex Jay  18:19:44 GMT - 05/09/2011  
KB, I assume this means divergence? What do you suggest?

JERUSALEM KB  18:14:52 GMT - 05/09/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
1hr macd higher lows & price lower lows

GVI Forex john  16:10:47 GMT - 05/09/2011  
Question to ponder. When is a trend dead?

Personally, I feel this EURUSD uptrend is history. My more aggressive uptrendline at 1.4447 has been decisively breached. A less aggressive line at 1.4305 is gone and now we have been taking out benchmark moving averages one by one. Even the 50- day average at 1.4268 has been tested (low of 1.4253).

The EURUSD can still trade higher, but I feel we are at the point where the next leg up would have to be considered a new trend.

From a fundamental perspective, I think it all depends on whether those central banks who have been dumping dollars turn sellers again.

Now is not a good time for big ideas or high leverage.

GVI Forex Jay  14:30:56 GMT - 05/09/2011  
So far holding the 50 day mva (1.4268) but would need above 1.4294-1.4314 to neutralize the current risk to 1.4200 and 1.4155.

GVI Forex  13:34:29 GMT - 05/09/2011  
Note former monthly trendline at 1.4294 vs. 1.4298 low just now

GVI Forex Jay  12:06:35 GMT - 05/09/2011  
Bottomline today is there are not a lot of stops to go after unless there is a new low but what has changed is the euro's teflon shield has cracked so there is a new element of headline risk.

CNBC has made Greece and the EZ debt situation front page news today. There seems a lot of conflicting reports as usual but reading between the lines, they are trying to figure a way to kick the can down the road (repofiling?).

So besides the technical picture changing there is Greece now in the headlines and this, at a minimum, argues for a 2-way risk once the dust settles but onus is on the euro bull side to trade 1.45 or risk is tilted to the downside.

Otherwise, little to suggest while within 1.4350-1.4450.

GVI Forex john  10:39:00 GMT - 05/09/2011  
I recalculated. My old EURUSD uptrend line. It WOULD have come in today at 1.4447. Some use an old broken uptrend line as resistance. The EURUSD high today has been 1.4441, so it has held so far. There is no reason to rush back into the EURUSD until the peripheral debt situation appears to be on a path for resolution.

GVI Forex john  22:23:58 GMT - 05/08/2011  
invho- I preferred the steeper EURUSD trendline that came in at 1.4411 at the end of last week. It will come in on Mondays close at about 1.4430. I think that trendline is now dead, even if we close above it on Monday. We are also well below the 1.4573 20-day moving average. We are now starting over from scratch. Look old longs to be exiting positions on rallies. Someone pointed out a lower (and older) trendline on GVI Friday, but that one has been tested as well

Any thoughts on how to trade this chart? I'm thinking traders will take a run at the upside in coming sessions, but they will fail.

GVI Forex Jay  18:12:52 GMT - 05/08/2011  
I am using the trendline off the lows and I show 1.4415 as the broken line on Monday

JERUSALEM KB  17:21:08 GMT - 05/08/2011  
sorry 7-1-2011 not 2001

JERUSALEM KB  17:20:45 GMT - 05/08/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
yes jay , i am useing the closed prices from 7-1-2001 passing throught 18-4-2011 closed prices

GVI Forex Jay  17:10:27 GMT - 05/08/2011  
KB, are you using closing rates for that (Broken) trendline?

JERUSALEM KB  16:47:21 GMT - 05/08/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
in normal case a retest of broken support may be seen before another fall (broken support now at 1.4510 but don`t know from current price or 1.4205-1.4159

GVI Forex Jay  02:57:38 GMT - 05/08/2011  
If/then approach:

If 1.4294 (former monthly trendline) fails to hold, then 1.4268 (50 day mva), 1.4200 (pivotal big figure) and 1.4155 (key support) are at risk


If 1.4294 holds, then 1.4415 (former daily trendline broken Friday) is 1st key resistance

If 1.4415 is broken, then 1.4450-55 comes into play.

If 1.4450-55 is taken out, then 1.45 will be the attraction.

Feel free to comment.

GVI Forex Jay  23:18:15 GMT - 05/07/2011  
This may be the ultimate outcome for Greece, which is otherwise referred to as reprofiling (see below). So if no default and no exit from the euro, then logic suggests eur/usd should retrace some of its sharp late day Friday drop. Test comes if or when it tests 1.45. Assume those stuck long will have offers lying in wait.

What is likely is a kind of soft restructuring, in which Greece will be given more time to pay its loans. Major bondholders — which include French, German and Greek banks, as well as the European Central Bank — could agree to exchange their debt for securities with longer maturities and even a lower interest rate rather than face the possibility of getting back only a percentage of their loans. That would make it less likely that the countries involved have to go to their taxpayers and ask for more money to prop up national banks, which would be deeply unpopular, especially in Germany. (NYT)

GOT PK  12:55:40 GMT - 05/07/2011  
prior to the base for the current major leg, 1.2873, there´s an intermediate peak at 1.4282. close enough to the major monthly trendline, and would also constitute an overlap. so perhaps worth to keep an eye on.

GVI Forex  12:44:14 GMT - 05/07/2011  
What happens to the eur/usd when markets open next week and nothing came out of the meeting regarding Greece other than raising the anxiety level.

It is amazing sometimes when the market techincals perform like a blueprint even if it took an exaggerated thin Friday reaction to questionable news to accomplish it. Price action suggested alot of bets that 1.45+ would trade.

Look at the monthly chart posted above. The major trendline broken last month comes in at 1.4294 (the way I draw it at least) and the low on Friday was 1.4314, so pretty close. If this level holds and nothing new comes out on Greece, then logic suggests some backing ans filling from the air pocket drop on Friday (which started around 1.4510). However, to turn the market neutral, 1.45+ would need to trade again. For 1.45+ to be expoaed, 1.4450+ would be needed.

Using 1.4939-1.4314,
1.4462 = 23.6%
1.4553 = 38.2%

On the downside, major support is at 1.4155, the bottom of the last leg to 1.4939.

Watch for any chatter of Asian CB bids on Monday.

Feel free to add your comments. This is a good place for a weekend discussion.

GVI Forex Jay  18:59:42 GMT - 05/06/2011  
I like to use the most commonly used indicators for if broken or they hold, better chance that there will be a reaction. My preference.

JERUSALEM KB  18:50:46 GMT - 05/06/2011  
yes jay both ways are right , it is only based one the close prices or the high prices of the candle stick.
the most important point that the price is retesting this broken ress. in monthly chart and the current candle may go even below the ress. but closes above it again so i use the close price for confirmation.

GVI Forex  18:36:43 GMT - 05/06/2011  
The break of the daily trendline (I show it at 1.4383) leaves little below the market until 1.4155 other than 1.4294, the former major monthly trendline I posted earlier.

It is hard to suggest carrying anything over the weekend unless short with a big cushion but even then I prefer flat after a good run these past few days given the last 150+ pip drop came on the Greece news, which at this stage is not clear what is really going on. In any case, the reaction to news tells more about a currency's strength/weakness than the news itself.

GVI Forex Jay  17:40:10 GMT - 05/06/2011  
KB, the only difference we have is the way we drew the monthly trendline (broken last month). I show it at 1.4294. This is a major point as former trendlines can be formidable levels. Your line is interesting is it is around the 1.4155 bottom of the start of the last leg to 1.4939. Nice call yesterday on the risk.

In any case, it is an outside week key reversal with a close below 1.4492. There was no way to anticipate the Greek news but was probably a reason why the eur/usd had trouble rallying while other risk assets traded higher. The euro's Achilles heel is sovereign risk.

Minneapolis DRS2  17:30:54 GMT - 05/06/2011  
As a follow-on to my comments from yesterday...

After seeing today's price action, I decided not to put in any long orders as of yet. I did a lot of scalping and made money on the short side of the house.

While I'm somewhat dismayed that my idea of going short-term long hasn't worked out so far (not even one entry), I can take solace in the fact that my long-term shorts (average 1.3465) are showing signs of healing. More importantly, my account balance went up today with help from lots of scalps. Sometimes it's those itty-bitty orders that can get you through.

The action plan for now will be to watch and wait, with scalp orders in the interim so my time isn't wasted. As previously mentioned, in order to put in more long-term shorts I want to see evidence of continued USD buying. The biggest evidence would be heavy liquidation in equities and commodities...or maybe a Euro zone collapse.

JERUSALEM KB  17:27:51 GMT - 05/06/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
we are heading to 1.4150 break may target the middle bollinger band at 1.3880
but the formation of the last 3 weekly candles may show that the next move will be a side way between 1.4205 and 1.4450/1.4640

GVI Forex Jay  14:14:00 GMT - 05/06/2011  
Commodity and stock markets say they follow the dollar and fx market says it follows stocks and commodities so a matter of perspective. Each seems to be at the mercy of the other.

Going strictly by charts, eur/usd needs to close above 1.4492 to avoid an outside key reversal week and above 1.45 to slow the risk (1.45 sets the bias going forwards).

On the downside, the "50" level (1.4450) is important with the key daily trendline lying below. Note, the low today at 1.4456 was 2 pips above 1.4454 = 61.8% of 1.4155-1.4939 (as posted earlier).

My gut says we move into ranges once the dust settles from the 2-day carnage but that assumes a close above 1.4492.

About sums it up as markets start to thin pre-weekend after a crazy few days.

Feel free to comment, pose scenarios, ask questions.

GVI Forex john  14:05:22 GMT - 05/06/2011  
I did the trendline calculation . I can't draw a trendline accurately on a compute screen. I used the 1/10/11 low of 1.2875 and the 4/18/11 low of 1.4155. It came in 1.4411 yesterday and 1.4419 today. It rises by 18pips per day.

GVI Forex john  13:24:16 GMT - 05/06/2011  
Got very close to the EURUSD uptrend line 1.4425. Looks to me like the market has bought on the dip down to the trendline. Now we know where the stops will be collecting. Frankly, I don't like buying on this big of a dip when the market has still got a lot of longs under water.

Minneapolis DRS2  20:04:47 GMT - 05/05/2011  
If you're long EUR/USD, today was a very ugly day. You have my condolences.

However, there is still hope if you're least from looking at the charts. The EUR/USD pair over the past few months shows a number of pullbacks, followed by the pair being bought right back up. This is pretty easy to see on the daily chart with Bollinger Bands displayed. The price has bounced more or less between the 20-day SMA and +2 Standard Deviations, with the occasional dip near -1 Standard Deviation.

At this point, I am looking to enter short-term long orders between the current price (1.4515) and 1.4400, with stops below 1.4400 and target 1.4940 (most recent high) and 1.5223 (+2 Standard Deviations on monthly chart).

If stops are triggered, I will look to add to my long term EUR/USD shorts. However, I'll need to see solid evidence that USD is being bought up. The biggest reasons in my mind would be:

1. Running away from the Euro (many possibilities), or
2. Loss of liquidity (hence liquidation back into USD)

The bottom line is that this is a two-way market. Although we can see further EUR/USD price drops from here (much to my delight), I will remain skeptical until events prove otherwise.

JERUSALEM KB  19:05:02 GMT - 05/05/2011  
let us se if this daily trend line may so any reaction

GVI Forex  18:24:56 GMT - 05/05/2011  
The monthly chart is worth noting as the breakout last month is what helped trigger the run at 1.50. The former trendline broken in April comes in at 1.4294 and is what needs to hold (along with 1.4492 and daily trendline around 1.44 - 1.4393 on Friday) to check this move.

GVI Forex Jay  18:01:40 GMT - 05/05/2011  
It is hard to suggest follow through after such a large move and focus on Friday will be on 1.4492, last week's low, which is around the pivotal 1.45 level. A close below it would be an outside week key reveral so clearly a pivotal area.

Given the importance of the 1.45 area, watch the "50" level (1.4550) as it needs to hold to protect the downside from a further run.

You need to keep in mind that technical levels, unless triggering stops, mean little in a liquidating market such as today that is not being driven by fresh positioning but by a run for the exits. I would normally say tomorrow will be a different day but we have to contend with US jobs, and expectations have probably been lowered for NFP.

GVI Forex john  17:43:27 GMT - 05/05/2011  
EURUSD decisively below 20-day average just about any way you calculate it. We had it at 1.4566 last night and prospectively at 1.4579 or so today. Might have triggered another round of stops. Calls into question the notion of buying on dips now.

GVI Forex john  16:47:45 GMT - 05/05/2011  
The initial penetration of the 20-day average (1.4644) can often change the tone of the market.

GVI Forex john  14:58:42 GMT - 05/05/2011  
The market needs to wash out. My trendline comes in at the 1.4400 level so there is a long way to go without changing the trend. On the other hand we show the pivotal 20-day moving average at 1.4566. Other longer dated moving averages are a lot lower.

ACB's (Asian central Banks) waiting in the weeds to buy EURUSD once they perceive a low has been put in?

GVI Forex Jay  14:49:47 GMT - 05/05/2011  
Tallin's post about closes around 1.4825 turned out to be an invaluable clue and not saying this with hindsight as i pointed it out several times, which helped shape my bias into the ECB meeting. Of course, Trichet helped and that was the wild card.

1.4590 = S3
1.4566 = 20 day mva
1.4547 = 50% of 1.4155-1.4939

GVI Forex  18:02:18 GMT - 05/04/2011  
As a followup to the prior post:

Sometimes it is hard to keep up with all the indicators as I was just looking at the level 1.4825 and not charts but it was also around the 100 hour mva green line)

GVI Forex  17:36:07 GMT - 05/04/2011  
John posted this earlier on GVI Forex

GVI Forex john 16:50 GMT May 4, 2011 - My Profile
No stops below in EUR.. Only bids from 1.4825....

See chart for how 1.4825 held - it has also been the close for the past 4 days (scroll down for a post on this)

GVI Forex Jay  15:23:32 GMT - 05/04/2011  
From GVI Forex in this bizarro world we trade in.

GVI Forex john 15:17 GMT May 4, 2011 - My Profile
News: Reply
Jay- You just cleared it up for me. USD buying is coming from (USD) carry trade unwinds. USD has become the preferred carry trade financing currency recently replacing the JPY.

GVI Forex Jay 15:09 GMT May 4, 2011 - My Profile
News: Reply
The market sold dollars on an ADP undershoot but bought it on the weaker ISM. Maybe it was the stock and commodity sell-off on the latter that tipped the market.

Personally, I have to admit I have no clue these days how to react to economic news and just wait for the reaction to see if it makes sense. Anyone else see it the same way?

GVI Forex  13:06:28 GMT - 05/04/2011  
One hour chart says it all with line drawn off lower tops broken. Key level on downside is former 1.4902 high (use 1.4890-00 as support). On upside, nothing special until 1.5144 (major resistance) other than 1.4950 and the pivotal 1.50 level. 1.4950 will be the next focus on top as a firm break opens the door to 1.50. Below it keeps the focus on 1.49.

Note, when in uncharted watrers, the most recent high or low (in this case the high) increases in importance given the lack of any nearby key levels.

If anyone is surprised at the price action, you are not alone as it is more by the timing as this should have been a wait-and-see day ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow.

GVI Forex Jay  21:41:56 GMT - 05/03/2011  
Late on the reply but it was a general pull back in risk. Note how all these markets seem interrelated so when one melts down (e.g. silver) there are reverberations in other markets as positions are closed to cover losses or meet margin calls. If in a true liquidating market, then the fallout on other markets can be severe. So far it has been modest although commoidty currencies were hit on Tuesday.

As for the eur/usd<

Tallin made this keen observation on the FF about eur/usd closing at 1.4825 for the 4th day in a row. We show the closes at:

1.4824 (today)

so close enough.

uk te  18:55:17 GMT - 05/03/2011  
So why is the eur down now?

GVI Forex Jay  16:21:07 GMT - 05/03/2011  
I just posted this on GVI Forex and it helps explain the price action today. Feel free to ask querstions or discuss as it was more than technicals today driving the market.

There are a lot of contributions here each day but on a day when there is teamwork, like today, it is worth noting as the puzzle pieces fit together.

- Gaza's post about "real" euro buying (while specs were selling) was clue #1
- Spotforex then pointed out the US-Bund 10-year spread was at zero
- Then several of us posted the hawkish ECB advisory report

This turned out to the combination of factors that squeezed the euro shorts and send the pair higher although eur/usd is still in its range below yesterday's 1.4902 high.

GVI Forex Jay  15:57:07 GMT - 05/03/2011  
It appears the advisory report was the trigger for the euro recovery. This sets up Thursday's ECB meeting as the key event.

GVI Forex Jay  13:27:28 GMT - 05/03/2011  
This gave the euro a boost:

Rumor hawkish advisory report out on ecb

GVI Forex Jay  23:37:39 GMT - 05/02/2011  
As posted by a member on GVI Forex

Some people I talk to that are close to the central banks are telling me they are backing off paying up here for EUR for the vv s/t

GVI Forex  18:45:12 GMT - 05/02/2011  
Outside day, new high but no close above the 1.4881 high so not an impressive day. Leaves 1.4850 as pivotal although 1.48 is more important.

On the downside, 100 hour mva is important as is the steep trendline for the move from 1.4155, which comes in at 1.4750 on Tuesday (see chart). Just below that is 1.4745 = 38.2% of 1.4492-1.4902. This suggests 1.4750 will be important ion checking any retracement, should one occur. Talk for that will only build if 1.4850+ fails to be sustained.

100 hour mva is currently at 1.4780, so within the current range.

I always jot down the Monday range as it can become important as an indicator

GVI Forex Jay  18:10:53 GMT - 04/29/2011  
I posted this on the FF and think it is worth posting here as well as it will have a longer shelf life. We would like to see some more discussion form on our member threads as this is a place where you can discuss things in more depth and at your leisure. We have made navigation easy as all posts in member forums show up as teasers on the forex forum so you know when there is a reply.

I wrote this yesterday and is worth noting for today where the euro has lagged out of weaker crosses while the dollar is weaker elsewhere:

GVI Forex Jay 13:59 GMT April 28, 2011
Tech Talk - EURUSD: Reply
I just had a dicussion with a reporter. We discussed the market and she said there are many contrarian calls out there.

My response was given US policies, there is no reason to hold dollars so when you see one currency sell-off, there is usually an offset buy somewhere else other than the dollar. This has limited any retracement as the market tugs in both directions.

I should have added the only time the market really tries to correct is when euro sovereign concerns take center stage and for now, market is ignoring this front as long as Spain is ring fenced.

GVI Forex Jay  15:48:07 GMT - 04/28/2011  
The pattern has been new eur/usd highs followed by sometimes sharp (sometimes shallow) but in each case short-lived retracements followed by new highs.

Last set has been:

1.4520 => 1.4155 (2.5% retracement)

1.4155 => 1.4649 => 1.4492 (1.1% retracement)

1.4492 => 1.4882 =>? up or down?

As posted earlier on: GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay  14:25:31 GMT - 04/28/2011  
This is from the Forex Forum and worth a repost here:

swiss frank 14:22 GMT April 28, 2011
EUR/USD to test today's high: Reply
Statistically its a very low probability to make new highs. € has a strong tendency to mean revert to the 200 hour ma. The further it moves away, the more likely it is to revert. Its currently about 340 points away. This is as far as its been so far this year (except for this mngs peek when it was 350).

That said I was earlier reading something about 35% of the economy is now entightlement payments and 55% of voters receive an entitlement payment. Good luck citizens...

GVI Forex Jay  19:49:08 GMT - 04/27/2011  
Note prior post with 1.48 currently targeted.

What may come next?

1.48, 1.50, 1.5144 are all I have on my charts and only the latter is a real chart point.

With that said, note the chatter about options barriers between 1.48-1.52 ... any info on this would be appreciated

GVI Forex Jay  23:19:29 GMT - 04/26/2011  
As long as 1.45+ trades, risk stays up

Focus Wednesday will be on 1.4650 -- if it becomes support talk will turn to 1.48.

If 1.48+ trades, then talk turns to 1.50

Below 1.45 would be needed to shift the risk.

About sums it up.

As posted earlier on GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay  13:17:47 GMT - 04/22/2011  
A GVI member sent me this chart:

THE IMPORTANCE OF DIVERGENCE IN RSI for a trend change – pls see the encircled areas (divergences) - see chart

GVI Forex Jay  10:38:26 GMT - 04/21/2011  
The power of the "50" level.

On Monday, the downside paused above 1.4150 (where there was a kley support level), on Tuesday the upside paused around 1.4350 (key monthly level), on Wednesday it paused around 1.4550 and today the focus is on 1.4650, which is also a rumored options barrier.

1.4650 is also important for another reason as it is the midpoint between pivotal big figures 1.45 and 1.48. With no key resistance until 1.5144 (Nov 25 2009 high), 1.48 is the next key level and 1.4650 will determine whether the market goes after it or keeps its focus on 1.45. The pattern of the past two days suggests 1.4650 could be a level where the market pauses today to catch its breath.

On the downside, support is 1.4552-1.4582, 1.4582 being the major 2010 high broken today and 1.4552 being Wednesday's low.

Price action may be exaggerated by thin pre-holiday activity but severe technical damage has been done with the dollar falling off a cliff across-the-board.

Jay Meisler, co-founder,

GVI Forex Jay  19:01:03 GMT - 04/19/2011  
Trying to be objective:

Since closing above 1.40 on March 17, eur/usd has only had two consecutive days where it closed lower, including this past Friday-Monday. We would need to see more than 2 consecutive lower closes to suggest the pattern of brief retracements, even sharp ones like yesterday, has been broken. It will close higher today.

GVI Forex Jay  09:37:57 GMT - 04/19/2011  
I posted these levels yesterday afternoon on GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay 18:52 GMT April 18, 2011 - My Profile
Tech Talk - EURUSD: Reply
Levels to watch for Tuesday:

1.4200 = sets tone going forwards
1.4156 = Monday low
1.4149 = key support

1.4250 = "50" level and daily trendline broken Monday
1.4266 = 20 day mva
1.4272 = former daily trendline on Tuesday
1.4295 = 38.2% of 1.4520-1.4156
1.4338 = 50%
1.4350 = "50", post S&P news high and pivtoal monthly (trendline)
1.4381 = 61.8%

GVI Forex  17:52:04 GMT - 04/18/2011  
Different market tomorrow?

My experience with liquidating markets, such as the one today is the next day trades differently unless a new low/high is made which causes more positions to unwind.

So unless eur/usd takes out Monday's 1.4156 low, Tuesday will trade differently than Monday although some will try and treat it the same. This is something to keep in mind for tomorrow as it will be a different market without stops to go after with some risk of backing and filling.

With that said, keep an eye on the former daily trendline (broken on Monday at 1.4251), which comes in at 1.4272 on Tuesday. The 20 day mva should around there as well so the key level on top.

Otherwise, above 1.4250 would be needed to expose 1.4272 (1.4350 is key level) while below 1.4200 would put the 1.4156 low and 1.4149 in play.

GVI Forex Jay  16:58:56 GMT - 04/18/2011  
My experience with liquidating markets, such as the one today is the next day trades differently unless a new low/high is made which causes more positions to unwind.

So unless eur/usd takes out Monday's 1.4156 low, Tuesday will trade differently than Monday although some will try and treat it the same. This is something to keep in mind for tomorrow as it will be a different market without stops to go after.

GVI Forex Jay  12:21:28 GMT - 04/18/2011  
Market unfolding as per risk in a liquidaitng market, approaching key area 1.4255-65. Flat here between 1.4250-90. Low so far 1.4266.

GVI Forex Jay  10:32:37 GMT - 04/18/2011  
1.4350-65 holds the key today, 1.4350 being most important:

Looking at the downside, 1.42-1.43 is a potentially formidable area with the key 20 day mva and daily trendline in this range.

1.4291 = 61.8% of 1.4149-1.4520
1.4290 = 50% of 1.4059-1.4520
1.4270 = 50% of 1.4019-1.4520
1.4265 = 20 day mva *key level
1.4255 = daily trendline *key level
1.4235 = 61.8% of 1.4059-1.4520
1.4210 = 61.8% of 1.4019-1.4520
1.4200 = pivotal big figures
1.4149 = key April 5 low
1.4059 = key April 1 low
1.4019 = key March 28 low

On the upside,
1.4350 = former resistance/breakout level on upside and earlier in the day support
1.4350-65 = former monthly trendline/breakout for 1.4520
1.4390 = Friday low

Note, this is a short week before the Easter break and not one prone to taking on risk, leaving those with positions at the mercy of liquidation pressures should such build further.

GVI Forex Jay  12:09:46 GMT - 04/14/2011  
This is open for discussion and just an observation:

The market does not like the dollar and does not like to hold it for a variety of reasons. This is why when you see a currency come under pressure you have to look for the offset This is one reason why these retracement attempts tend to be be shallow as one currency goes down (e.g. euro today) and offsets weaken or restrain the dollar elsewhere (e.g. other dollars today), creating sort of a tug-of-war and often a mixed picture for the dollar. Only when the crosses stabilize do you see a risk of a catch-up move by the laggards/divergers or the lead currency retraces depending on the situation.

It is not like the old days when the dollar tended to move in one direction at different speeds with those lagging either gaining or losing on the lead currency depending on direction.

Just something to keep in mind on a day like today.

GVI Forex Jay  17:07:09 GMT - 04/13/2011  
I posted this on GVI Forex. Let me know if there are any questions. This divergence gave a good clue today that eur/usd test of 1.45+ was on shaky ground.'

GVI Forex Jay 15:12 GMT April 13, 2011
Tech Talk EUR/USD: Reply
Note eur/jpy and eur/chf stayed 122 and 1.30 despite eur/usd testing 1.45+

Kansas VinceCarter  15:51:00 GMT - 04/12/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
hi all,
is there who need help to configure Anna Monti freebot, I already got used to the freebot in forex trading and can share experience with novices

GVI Forex Jay  20:32:31 GMT - 04/11/2011  
Cross trading 101 (as it impacts spot):

I think eur/jpoy 122 (from a risk point of view) and usd/jpy 84.50 (tells you how much retracement pressure there is) will be important.

If 122 gives way and 84.50 holds, then brunt will fall on the offsets and pressure eur/usd (and others) lower.

If 84.50 and 122 both don't hold, then less pressure on the offsets as they do not have to bear the full brunt.

If 122 holds, then it suggests less pressure for retracements.

What is clear, at least for now, is deck has been cleared of buy (dollar sell) stops, probably in key commodities as well on the buy side.

If markets do correct it will be from a liquidation squeeze rather than change in sentiment. If they don't correct far, then as Raven said, hit and run week. Pattern for the eur/usd has been once a high is made it needs a failed correction to setup a run to another new high. What is different here is 1.45 is a major psychogical level so harder to crack.

GVI Forex john  11:28:29 GMT - 04/11/2011  
Updated chart. You cannot fight the EURUSD uptrendline. I have it coming in Monday at 1.4168. It continues to work, so you have to stick with it. The only question is where you enter and where you put in your stops. Thoughts on this would be welcomed.

GVI Forex Jay  16:36:37 GMT - 04/08/2011  
Thinking out loud, 1.4450 now replaces 1.4350 as the pivotal level. 1.4350 is more important for me as it is midway between 1.42-1.45 but 1.4450 is important as well as it is the major 61.8% level (1.6040-1.1878) and the last obstacle to 1.45.

GVI Forex  23:20:29 GMT - 04/07/2011  
The following was posted on GVI Forex and is such a keen insight that I reposted it here. I also added a daily chart to illustrate:

Minneapolis DRS2 22:55 GMT April 7, 2011
Market reading: Reply
IMHO, the best way to see what's been going on has been to check the Bollinger Bands on the EUR/USD daily chart. For several weeks now, price has been bouncing between the center line (20-day SMA) and the top line (+2 standard deviation).

I like to call it "Walking through the pasture", although that may be too conspiratorial a phrase. Price goes up continuously, and all dips are bought...but it never goes up too much. Price never crashes (which would trigger a selloff), and price never shoots up too high (which would also trigger a selloff). It just goes up, albeit very gently...the PERFECT setup to suck buyers in.

GVI Forex Jay  12:55:12 GMT - 04/07/2011  
The importance of 1.4350 is it is midway between two pivotal big figures -- 1.42 and 1.45. Focus is on 1.42 while below it, shifts to 1.45 while above it. KISS approach.

GOT PK  06:09:30 GMT - 04/07/2011  
thanks jay. fits well my own idea 1.4410/20, equality of the first major leg from sub 1.29 - 1.3863.

GVI Forex Jay  22:44:17 GMT - 04/06/2011  
PK, 1.4413 is the Jan 19, 2010 high. It is significant but not nearly as much as the 2010 high at 1.4582 set on Jan 13, 2010.

Note the rumored options barriers at 1.4350 and 1.4400. I only got this from a RTRS report so no clue how large or any other details but 1.4350 was Wed's high.

GOT PK  17:20:29 GMT - 04/06/2011  
jay - how did you get the 1.4413 target?

GVI Forex Jay  12:30:05 GMT - 04/06/2011  
I mentioned this the other day about trading a "mature" trend, like the eur/usd uptrend - it seems when a new high is set and holds for a day or two, a (failed) retracement is needed to shake out weak longs to setup a move to a new high. This was the pattern this week where the high was set early Monday, retraced into Tuesday and then rebounded late to setup a new high today.

What makes it tricky today is the new high is a breakout high (through 1.4282) so a risk of some acceleration if it becomes support.

Just something to keep in mind trading this pair.

GVI Forex  09:42:22 GMT - 04/06/2011  
EUR/USD outlook for Wednesday (US session):

Trying for a breakout above 1.4282, which if it holds, would target 1.4413. For today, market will be in a BOD (buy on dips) mode while abvoe 1.4245-50 but stronger if it holds above 1.4268-82.

Note the monthly chart where the major trendline is at 1.4323 vs. a 1.4314 high today.

Look at euro crosses for its source of demand )eur/jpy, eur/gbp).

GVI Forex Jay  11:25:20 GMT - 04/05/2011  

ECB meeting on Thursday argues for a range market ahead of it. For today, as noted, 1.4150 is a pivotal level with focus staying on 1.42 while above it.,

If the current pattern of eur/usd printing 1.42 (4 days in a row) continues, then this level will be seen on Wednesday. Much will depend on whether 1,4150 holds.

A break of this pattern around 1,42 would suggest a risk of a directional move.

GVI Forex Jay  15:01:39 GMT - 04/04/2011  
John, trendlines can vary, however, depending on what database you are using to calculate them. I trust yours as it uses our database and as you said drawn precisely.

GVI Forex  Chartman  14:14:11 GMT - 04/04/2011  
Note below how well my EURUSD uptrendline has been working since late February. As indicated below, to trade it you need to buy at or close to the line. If you are trading off the line (it obviously depends on the day), I suggest you avoid you set a stop of 10-20 pips below where the line is depending on your risk tolerance.

Discussion encouraged.

GVI Forex  john  13:28:36 GMT - 04/04/2011  

GVI Forex john  10:44:49 GMT - 04/04/2011  
In answer to Jay the thickness of the pencil or the charting service are not factors when you calculate a trend line using a formula. If you know the exact chart point prices the number of days between points an the number of days until today its six grade algebra to compute the PRECISE trend line to any level of accuracy desired. The only bone of contention is the chart points used.

GVI Forex Charman  10:39:36 GMT - 04/04/2011  
es- thanks for your feedback. I will post a chart with more specific information later today. I was intentionally vague with the markets so far away from entry levels on the daily charts. Perhaps I should revise my approach. I would love to see trading analysis from others.

GVI Forex Jay  00:51:08 GMT - 04/04/2011  
es I can't speak for John but drawing trendlines is not an exact science. We used to say it depended on how thick your pencil was. Now it depends on your charting service and the database it uses.

With that said, trendlines (when drawn properly and my definition of properly differs from what I see some technicians doing - I am not a technician) are an excellent guide to the risk. For me, they are opne of my most important indicators.

Personally I use them more to set my bias (on any time frame) and pay notice when they hold or are broken (half my analysis is spent on figuring out the strong side to trade at any point in time). Like Friday when the eur/usd bounced off its daily trendline. A long with a stop below the trendline after it bounced off of it turned into the play of the day but that is speaking with hindsight. At the least it was an alert if you were short.

tor  es  18:41:22 GMT - 04/03/2011  
"Using this technique you buy at or around the trendl ine with a stop not far below it. When it stops working you go onto something else. "

Totally useless recommendation...
1. What is the stop that should be placed that is "not far" below it ?
2. And, what is the definition of "when it stops working" ?
3. What do you mean by "go onto something else".

GVI Forex chartman  17:43:19 GMT - 04/03/2011  
Sticking with the KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) rule heading into the new week. The uptrend line in EURUSD continues to work fabulously. They say stocks climb wall of worry and I would say the same is true for the EURUSD. For now I'm using only the trendline in EURUSD until it stops working. When it stops I will find something else. It come in Monday at about 1.4061 based on my CALCULATIONS. I find with computer charting its hard to be precise.

Using this technique you buy at or around the trendl ine with a stop not far below it. When it stops working you go onto something else.

GVI Forex Jay  11:07:34 GMT - 04/03/2011  
The test for the EUR/USD will come early on Monday when Australia-New Zealand starts the week. This is the thinnest time of the week and a time when stops can be run without little to stand in its way. It used to be easier before there was electronic trading and the banks there controlled the market until other centers opened. Nonetheless, stops are most exposed during this session.

In this regard, the firm EUR/USD close on Friday has likely stops resting above 1.4250 looming close by. There was a rumored options barrier defense last time up here two weeks ago but have not heard any news about a barrier at this level since.

Technically, the Nov 4 high at 1.4282 is more important as there is little above it until the January 19, 2010 high at 1.4413 followed by the 2010 high set on Jan 13 of that year at 1.4582.

On the downside, the market will look to buy on dips (BOD) as long as 1.4200 trades and take its cue on the upside by how 1.4250 and 1.4282 trades.

GVI Forex Jay  11:54:49 GMT - 03/31/2011  
Here is my thought for the rest of the week (subject to change depending on US jobs data tomorrow).

The rest of this day is a crapshoot with end of quarter flows risking some erratic swings until the 15:00 GMT London fixing is out of the way. For today, upside limited as long as it stays below 1.4249.

Then the focus shifts to the US employment report on friday. Normally the dollar would be trading with a bid ahead of what is expected to be a strong report but euro strength today has confounded that view. This suggests a market looking ahead to next week's ECB meeting and a rate hike.

This sets up a possible trade for the US jobs report tomorrow, which is to look for a eur/usd dip (should the data come in on the strong side but not excessively so) on the assumption that others will be looking to do the same. Levels depend on how it closes today but 1.4150 is the first level of pivotal support.

GVI Forex Jay  14:47:24 GMT - 03/30/2011  
This is not exactly a setup but will give a clue to what comes next.

The EUR/USD 1.41 level has printed 6 days in a row and a break of this pattern will signal the next directional move. This is not normally a level I watch but hard to ignore the patter as the market debates between 1.40 and 1.42.

GVI Forex Jay  16:49:11 GMT - 03/29/2011  
Some trade scenarios/setups as posted on thge Forex Fourm:

Minneapolis DRS2 16:44:53 GMT - 03/29/2011
Over the past few months, EUR/USD price has been remarkably well-behaved. As I've written in previous messages, the market is currently "walking through the pasture" when it comes to trading this pair. Price moves have stayed for the most part within chart lines and moving averages. Dips have been bought up quickly. Daily price ranges have been between 100-150 pips.

If you look at the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, you'll find that price has stayed pretty consistently within the center line (20-day SMA) and the top line (+2 standard deviation). Price is moving up very gradually. Over the past week, price has bounced from 1.4250 to around 1.4020, and back up again.

At the time I'm writing this message (morning in the Americas), price is hovering in a congestion area between 1.4050 and 1.4100. On the hourly chart, the pair is moving on a downward channel with 1.4150 as the most recent top, and possible bottom below 1.4000.

Here are a couple of possible trade ideas, depending on your bias. Right now we have a downward trend on the hourly chart, and an upward trend on the daily chart.

1. Sell right now (currently 1.4081), with target 1.4011 and stop 1.4105. The target is the 20-day simple moving average, and the stop is the "top side" of the current congestion area on the hourly chart.

2. Buy right now, with target 1.4140 and stop 1.4040. The target is the top of the current channel on the hourly chart that is formed from the last two peaks (1.4192 and 1.4149). The stop is the "bottom side" of the current congestion area on the hourly chart.

GVI Forex Jay  12:35:59 GMT - 03/29/2011  
There is a cluster of levels around 1.40. This may be a tall order today but have to keep an eye on them as mood would change if 1.40 gets broken. Use 1.4050-1.4150 as a guide intra-day as both sides have held so far today.

1.4003 = 61.8% of 1.3852-1.4248
1.39995 = 50% of 1.3750-1.4249
1.3999 = 20 day mva
1.3997 = daily trendline

NYC JM  23:32:54 GMT - 03/27/2011  
kb, where do you come up with 1.3880-1.3930? I see 1.3850 area as key should 1.3970-85 give way.

JERUSALEM KB  19:23:21 GMT - 03/27/2011  
eurusd support and ress.
it is highly possible to see down move during the first 2 days of trading as long as 1.4152 hold and to be contained at 1.3880-1.3930 and goes up again

JERUSALEM KB  19:10:19 GMT - 03/27/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
last week eurusd tried hard to break above 1.4285 but it forms 2 lower highs at 1.4247 and 1.4197 and went down strongly to retest weekly ress. and closed above this line.
a side way trade is highly possible before attacking the ress.1.4245 again.

kl fs  12:21:55 GMT - 03/27/2011  
well for me, euro is still in BOD mode
expecting some downside first to close the month but we will be looking for opps to go for long
1.37-1.42 for a while

GVI Forex Jay  10:24:44 GMT - 03/27/2011  
1.3985 = 20 day mva

1.3970 = daily trendline

NYC JM  17:29:05 GMT - 03/25/2011  
Anyone have an idea for a trade setup for next week? 200 hour mva (currently at 1.4093) is an indicator to watch and potential is for the 20 dav ma (1.3970) to become an attraction if below it. This presumes 1.4050 gives way at some point for a move towards 1.40 and the 20 day mva.

If the 200 hour mva doesn't hold then we are back in a range to 1.4150-00.

Suggestions or discussion welcomed.

GVI Forex Jay  13:04:12 GMT - 03/25/2011  
When I first started trading and for many many years afterwards, it was a US dollar centric market. This meant that if one currency led, you could buy (or sell as the case may be) another currency that would at least follow the leader, even if with only a lag.

In this multi-currency world that has evolved away from a US dollar centric market due to diversification, you can call the dollar direction right but not make (or even lose) money if the currency pair you choose to trade goes the other way due to a cross flow.

This was the case just now where the eur/usd, which was supported earlier by firmer crosses, sold off as its crosses reversed and moved lower. This has usd/jpy trading off its high after being bid earlier, gbp/usd barely moving and eur/usd lower out of these crosses.

It becomes more of a currency pickers market more than just having a view on the dollar.

GVI Forex Jay  11:00:07 GMT - 03/25/2011  
The last day of the week has seen eur/usd back off but that does not tell the story of the day, which is firm euro crosses (note firm commodity currencies as well) as global markets continue to shrug off what are too many clouds to mention and trade in a risk on mode.

This has the eur/usd trading around the pivotal 1.4150 level but as of this writing it has failed to extend its pivot of 1.42 for the first time this week although the day is young. A break of this pattern would normally be taken as a bearish indicator although firm euro crosses show underlying strength for the euro.

In any case, 1.4150 will set the tone while within 1.41-1.42 on this cross driven end to the week with a limited upside unless 1.42 prints. Note jpy and chf trading weaker on respective crosses.

On the downside, using yesterday’s 1.4049-1.4220 range,

1.4135 = 50% - note intra-day low at 1.4138
1.4114 – 61.8%

Also, note the 1 hour chart where the trendline and 200 hour mva (yellow line) are tracking the same slope and keys to containing the downside.

GVI Forex Jay  19:02:05 GMT - 03/24/2011  
If this week's pattern continues eur/usd will print 1.42 to make it 5 days in a row. What path it takes i cannot say but odds are for a 1.42 print on Friday.

GVI Forex Jay  15:17:27 GMT - 03/24/2011  
My gut ruled today and while it cost me no pain I have thrown my forex trading hat into the oven after 1.42 printed for the 4th day in a row.

GVI Forex Jay  11:37:58 GMT - 03/24/2011  
EUR/USD 1.42 has printed 3 days in a row coming into today. I won't even suggest a 4th day today for if it prints, I will throw my forex trading cap in the fire.

Otherwise, just hit and run for me so far today.

ALSO, for those reading this thread, we understand it is a new venue and will take time to gain traction. but would really like to see some discussion develop.

GVI Forex  10:29:14 GMT - 03/24/2011  
10:30 GMT ( March 25 - If you operate under the premise that the only factor that seems to push the eur/usd down these days is sovereign concerns euro bears had a perfect storm, Portugal vote and EU summit differences kicking the can down the road. Yet the eurusd is trading higher and all you need to look at is euro crosses for the source of demand. This was the first thing I looked at this morning when I walked in, specifically eur/chf, which is firmer despite the EZ sovereign jitters, which for me was a warning sign that something did not add up (I noted this late yesterday as well). Otherwise, all I can say is confounding but typical of the way the eur/usd trades when it tries to retrace.

Once again, the “50” level proved to be a key with the downside checked just above 1.4050 (also 50% of 1.3852-1.4248). Looking at the 1 hour chart (see above), the mean reversion to its 200 hour mva (yellow line) helped provide support. In addition, there is still an up trendline on the 1 hour that is intact as well (similar 4 hour line).

On the upside, the “50” level (1.4150) is also pivotal although 1.4100 sets intra-day sentiment (currently better bid) while within 1.4050-1.4150. Resistance comes in at 1.4135, which blocks a return to 1.4150, and 1.4160 (also around the 100 hour mva - green line), both left over from yesterday's US session and so far intact today.

To sum up, a confounding day but typical of the way this pair has traded when the market tries to retrace. Otherwise, upside limited unless 1.4150 is taken out.

Minneapolis DRS2  17:57:05 GMT - 03/23/2011  
It's not disappointing if you know what to expect. Activity in recent months says that price has been going put in buy orders with tight stops. Take profit as appropriate.

iMy bias has been short (long-term core position) since the mid 1.30s. However, I put in buy orders as short-term trades when I see the price going up. That way, I can get profit from both directions.

GVI Forex john  13:04:57 GMT - 03/23/2011  
- Looking at the key moving averages in EURUSD. It looks like most position traders who want to be long EURUSD must already have them.
- I don't see any major EURUSD moving averages in range of the market YET.

GVI Forex john  13:02:53 GMT - 03/23/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
Last	1.4202	80.91	0.9028	1.6383	0.9792	1.0111
High	1.4249	81.30	0.9058	1.6401	0.9809	1.0128
Low	1.4172	80.82	0.9008	1.6290	0.9742	1.0035
Change	-0.0018	-0.13	-0.0023	0.0074	0.0001	0.0063

5 day	1.4100	80.32	0.9034	1.6213	0.9842	0.9948
10 day	1.4008	81.17	0.9150	1.6164	0.9791	1.0000
20 day	1.3931	81.65	0.9219	1.6191	0.9774	1.0063
50 day	1.3717	82.24	0.9416	1.6090	0.9857	1.0035
100 day	1.3530	82.61	0.9572	1.5902	0.9966	0.9982
200 day	1.3314	83.93	0.9907	1.5718	1.0150	0.9590

BIAS	Up	Down	Down	Up	Up	Down

GVI Forex Jay  11:02:11 GMT - 03/23/2011  
11:00 GMT ( March 23 - The focus today is on Portugal and the austerity vote that could bring down the government and force the country into a bailout. This suggests a limit for the eur/usd upside ahead of it and the test comes after depending on how much is already discounted. What caught my eye was a comment today by a GVI Forex member: Don't get trapped here. if Portugal mattered the eurusd would already be below 1.40....

Looking at charts, 1.42 (printed 3 days in a row) remains pivotal in setting the tone with 1.4150 (around the intra-day low) a potential sentiment indicator as well (I always pay notice when a "50" level holds or is broken). Using retracements (risk while below 1.42):

For 1.3852-1.4248
1.4155 = 23.6% (briefly broken – day low 1.4149)
1.4097 = 38.2%
1.4050 = 50%

For 1.3750 -1.4248
1.4130 = 23.6%
1.4058 = 38.2%

Another indicator to watch is the 100 hour mva (green line), currently at 1.4140.

Using FX Chart Points

S1 = 1.4130
S2 = 1.4089
Daily pivot = 1.4208

On the upside, only a break of 1.4248 would be significant. Intra-day high is 1.4214 and yesterday’s afternoon US session resistance was at 1.4215-17.

GVI Forex Jay  09:57:52 GMT - 03/23/2011  
The focus today is on Portugal and the austerity vote that could bring down the government and force the country into a bailout. This suggests a limit for the eur/usd upside ahead of it and the test comes after depending on how much is already discounted. There has been some fx risk aversion, meanwhile, with the euro softer vs., the chf and a lesser extent the jpy while gbp is softer vs. the euro.

Looking at charts, 1.42 (printed 3 days in a row) remains pivotal in setting the tone with 1.4150 (around the intra-day low) a potential sentiment indicator as well. Using retracements (risk while below 1.42):

For 1.3852-1.4248
1.4155 = 23.6% (briefly broken – day low 1.4149)
1.4097 = 38.2%
1.4050 = 50%

For 1.3750 -1.4248
1.4130 = 23.6%
1.4058 = 38.2%

Another indicator to watch is the 100 hour mva (green line), currently at

S1 = 1.4130
S2 = 1.4089
Daily pivot = 1.4208


On the upside, only a break of 1.4248 would be significant. Minor intra-day resistance is at 1.4196. Intra-day high is 1.4202 and yesterday’s afternoon US session resistance was at 1.4215-17.

GVI Forex Jay  00:24:41 GMT - 03/23/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
00:15 GMT ( March 23 - I like to look for patterns, not necessarily technical patterns but price action that makes sense to me.

If you step back, it should not be a surprise to see eur/usd show some indigestion around the next pivotal big figure (1.42), especially given the proximty of a major chart level (1.4282).

I say step back as it is always easier to say in hindsight although so far it is only a 3 day pattern (including today). Looking at price action around 1.40, it first tested above for 2 days, corrected lower to pivot 1.39 for 4 days, then bounced to pivot 1.40 for 5 days before this week's move up to the 1.42+ level.

History is not always a good guide but this was the pattern around 1.40 and worth keeping an eye on if 1.42+ fails to hold.

Using retracements for 1.3852-1.4248,
1.4155 = 23.6%
1.4097 = 38.2%
1.4050 = 50%

using 1.3750 -1.4248
1.4130 = 23.6%
1.4058 = 38.2%

London ex  15:58:36 GMT - 03/22/2011  
I'm not the best day-trader and therefore like the idea of this Message Board taking a broader view on trends. I don't believe in fighting the tape. The EURUSD trend is clearly higher. I have two concerns.The first is that this trend might be getting overextended. The same goes for positions. Any Ideas on EURUSD buy levels/stops?

GVI Forex Jay  11:02:17 GMT - 03/22/2011  
11:00 GMT ( March 22- While the market is focused on the eur/usd move above 1.42, it has been a week so far of catch-ups with commodity currencies (aud and nzd) and gbp taking the lead. This could be the tale of two carry trade favorites, the dollar and jpy (following G7 intervention) with offsets pushing currencies up elsewhere. Whatever the case it is more than just the euro weighing on the dollar.

As for the eur/usd, no change to what I posted last night on GVI Forex

You don't have to do much thinking -- market buys dips while above 1.42 but would need to get through 1.4250 ("50" level) to make a run at 1.4282.

Below 1.42 would cool the risk but only below 1.4140 would shift it.

Daily pivot = 1.4199

Major monthly trendline = 1.4385 (see chart)

Note weekly chart shows the line at 1.4303

GVI Forex  john  21:15:14 GMT - 03/21/2011  
EURUSD Moving Averages...
Stong Uptrend
spot-20	Up
5day-20	Up
spt-200	Up

5 day	1.4058
10 day	1.3978
20 day	1.3904
50 day	1.3692
100 day	1.3529
200 day	1.3305

GVI Forex Jay  20:43:54 GMT - 03/21/2011  
Note when in a mature trend the market often needs a retracement attempt before making a run at a new high (or low as the case may be). This is even true for intra-day trading, such as today when the eur/usd traded lower following the Treasury MBS selling news (see market chatter on the forex forum for details), which setup the run through 1.42 to a new high.

Just something to keep in mind.

GVI Forex john  12:57:48 GMT - 03/21/2011  
The purpose of this thread is to direct in-depth analysis of the EUR from every direction.

- All manner of ECB policy board members are being heard over the past several days on What will happen at the upcoming ECB meeting in April. All are giving lip service to controlling inflation, but they all are not sending the exact same message.

My view is that a decision was made at the last meeting to hike rates, but that decision is always contingent on events until the next meeting. I think they are playing the decision by ear. Their bias is still to hike and will do so if they think it will not upset the global economy seriously.

Bottom-line this is EUR positive especially while Bernanke is running a soft USD policy.

GVI Forex Jay  11:10:58 GMT - 03/21/2011  
11:00 GMT ( March 21 - Most of the activity to start the week has been focused on crosses, with commodity currencies firming at the expense of the jpy and to a lesser extent the chf (and vs. USD as well). The eur/usd, meanwhile, is consolidating below 1.42, needing to establish firmly above to expose a key 1.4282 target. On the downside, 1.4150 is pivotal in setting intra-day sentiment (e.g. bid tone while above it) while within 1.41-1.42 (intra-day low 1.4145) in a market where the strong move up Friday has left little in the way of obvious supports or nearby stops to go after. So, expect a limited follow through session while within 1.41-1.42 as the uptrend consolidates. Picture changes if above 1.42. Key support is not until Friday's 1.4037 breakout level.

Worth noting is the AT&T purchase of T-Mobile from Deutsche Telecom for $39 bln in stock and cash. The deal still needs to clear US regulatory approval but could explain some of the euro’s recent strength.

GVI Forex Jay  00:03:58 GMT - 03/21/2011  
GS calls for EUR/USD 1.50:

Goldman's FX Recommendation Recap In A Post BOJ-Intervention World

Note the difference between longer term targets and the trading world we live in. Markets rarely move in a straight line and the more mature a move, it often takes a failed retracement to shakeout weak positions to setup the next leg of the trend.

London sms  19:48:00 GMT - 03/20/2011  
John and Jay - I'm reading and learning. Many thanks to all who post on this forum.

GVI Forex john  18:06:24 GMT - 03/20/2011  
Check out the major moving averages in EURUSD. Perfectly aligned in an uptrend.

JERUSALEM KB  17:41:58 GMT - 03/20/2011  
as per monthly chart , price is reaching a major ress. to be more clear only a month close above this trend line will push the price to next level at 1.4992 in the other hand a sell signal below this trend line will valid that we are still moving in flag and euro may go down strongly.

JERUSALEM KB  17:31:59 GMT - 03/20/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
price closed above important ress. in weekly chart

GVI Forex  17:20:36 GMT - 03/20/2011  
See the daily eur/usd chart. Everyone is looking at the same target => 1.4282 = Nov 4, 2011 high, which should make one cautious but risk is clearly pointed up. The immediate focus is on 1.42 as this is a pivotal level that will dictate whether or how fast the market makes a run for 1.4282. Back below 1.4150 would be needed to slow the risk. In any case, watch 1.42 as this is the next pivotal level.

Worth noting is how the dollar has been unable to benefit from either risk off or risk on days and only seems to go up vs. the euro when sovereign concerns move to the front. Note the Friday eur/usd move up came out of sharp rebounds in eur/jpy and to a lesser extent eur/chf.

Looking ahead, the end of week EU summit is a key event but ECB meeting in just under 3 weeks is what has been giving the euro a bid as a rate hike has been clearly signaled by Trichet. The euro would only turn vulnerable if Trichet & Co change their tune on a rate hike at the April meeting.

Minneapolis DRS2  13:31:07 GMT - 03/20/2011  
JP: I won't be as "conspiratorial" as you are regarding the dollar carry trade, but the ugly fact behind the USD multi-year decline is that a large section of the world's economy has become totally dependent on cheap dollars. If the price of the dollar goes up, then the US government will collapse in an economic sense...probably along with the 35% of the US population that depends on transfer payments or subsidies. I won't even begin to guess how a rising dollar would affect the other regions such as the Eurozone and Asia, who in their own ways have also become dependent on cheap dollars.

As for the carry trade itself, I am betting that at some point in the future (within 1-3 years), the USD will indeed rise, and rise quickly. The commodities buyers who have physical delivery will do great, but those who have paper will be stuck. What I am unsure of is how big the exit doors will be for the paper-holders...a lot of those contracts may not be easy to escape.

Regarding the GVI survey, the EUR/USD pair is clearly on the march upward. As a short term play, I would guess that there will be at least one attempt on 1.4281. If it doesn't happen immediately, then price may drop back down to 1.4100 first. I'd like to go short more than long, because of where we are in the price range...but the technical picture and (apparent) sentiment do not yet support my view. Lately, I've been watching the 100 and 200 hour simple moving averages. At one point, there was a crossover that I thought might support a bearish view...but then price cycled around the 200-hour SMA and it eventually became support. Once the 100-hour SMA crossed over the 200-hour SMA (on the upside (as posted on GVI Forex)

GVI Forex john  12:57:25 GMT - 03/20/2011  
Follow up to post below. I like trading off trend-lines because they give you a parameter to trade off of and a level for stops. There certainly are higher levels to trade off, but I would recommend stops be kept very close because there is a wide range here for a corrective move. More on where I see those levels later as I build out this analysis. Next we will look at the current moving averages...

BTW- Trendline Monday comes in at 1.3869 (+20pips/day)

Would love any feedback.

GVI Forex  john  21:33:22 GMT - 03/19/2011  
Here is a little (personal) technical proflie of the EURUSD for position traders. This is about as strong as a technical picture can get. The trend-line is solid and not at risk and the moving averages (lagging indicator) are aligned nicely with the shorter moving averages all higher than the next longer moving average below it. Only question I have is where those who are not already long put in longer-term buy orders and stops. The best approach I can see for those already long should use trailing stops. More on my views on these in the next post.
Trendline 1.3849
chg/day	  0.0020
Trend	  UP
Quality	  STRONG

spot-20	Up
5day-20	Up
spt-200	Up

Moving Avgs:
5 day	1.4014
10 day	1.3953
20 day	1.3877
50 day	1.3667
100 day	1.3527
200 day	1.3295
	Current	Major
High	1.4184	1.4282
76.4%	1.4082	1.3950
61.8%	1.4018	1.3745
50.0%	1.3967	1.3579
38.2%	1.3916	1.3412
23.6%	1.3852	1.3207
Low	1.3750	1.2875

GVI Forex Jay  10:16:41 GMT - 03/18/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
10:15 GMT ( March 18 - My guess is that a goal of the G7 intervention is to lift usd/jpy back above 80 and restore a two-way risk. I am not sure some of the G7 members, such as the ECB, will be happy if their currencies move sharply higher as a result of the interventions. Most notable is the eur/usd, which extended its high (1.4101) as eur/jpy rose sharply, and looks to establish 1.40+ (after pivoting this level each day this week) in a bid to make a run to 1.42 with 1.4282 pegged as the next key target. For today, 1.4050 (“50” level) will be pivotal setting the intra-day tone (needs above it for a strong bid) although there will be a bid bias as long as it stays above 1.40. Key intra-day support is 1.4040 with little below it until the 1.40 area.

As for usd/jpy, it paused around the pivotal 82.00 level but the threat of further interventions should keep a bid below the market although the events in Japan remain a headwind. To inflict fatal technical damage, usd/jpy would need to take out and close above 83.29, which would produce an outside week key reversal, but seems a tall order today. EUR/JPY, on the other hand, is closer to an outside week and would need to close above 115.32 for an outside week key reversal

GVI Forex Jay  11:02:23 GMT - 03/17/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
11:00 GMT ( March 17 - Who would have expected this? EUR/USD is testing 1.40+ for the 4th day in a row and the 6th time in the past 10 days but has yet to produce a confirming close above it. This will put the focus on the close vs. 1.40 as well as vs. 1.4037, the recent high that was just broken. The brief test above 1.4050 suggests this level will be pivotal as well as above it would be needed to target 1.42 and 1.4282. R2 = 1.4057 and R3 = 1.4114. High so far has been 1.4052.

On the downside, 1.4037 needs to become support to keep the focus on 1.4050. Otherwise, 1.40 holds the key and market stays in a buy on dip mode while above it. Support below 1.40 is at 1.3975-80.

I need to mention the usd/jpy meltdown yesterday that saw it plunge more than 3 big figures in a matter of moments. This shows the danger of betting on a central bank to bailout a position and trading during the most illiquid part of the day (Aussie-NZ session). USD/JPY has since just about retraced the full extent of this black hole but failure to get back above 79.75 (former record low) has seen it back off again. One change from yesterday is the deck has been cleared of stops so little to go after. Upside is obvious with upside limited unless restored. Watch is to see if the sharp fall (gap?) to 76.25 (EBS low) will be filled.

GVI Forex Jay  11:46:22 GMT - 03/16/2011  
Part of Fed policy (even though Treasury sets FX policy) is to debase the dollar via QE as a way of stimulating the economy and increasing inflation expectations to avoid deflation. Market has followed the Fed lead barring those episodes when EZ peripheral sovereign concerns took over.

I heard someone describe Fed policy and a "great print and pray experiment."

Whatever the case, eur/usd 1.39-1.40 is not a range that will last for long.

GVI Forex Jay  11:35:39 GMT - 03/16/2011  
More on this from the Forex Forum (see below for prior posts):

Paris ib 11:28 GMT March 16, 2011
Market Chatter: Reply
I take the view that if the stock market bull run is over (very probably) then the hunt for yield is on.... and provided the whole Euro crisis hysteria is managed even modestly well..... then the yields on offer in Europe are just mouth wateringly attractive at the moment. If it's back to bonds (and away from stocks) and we are at the start of a global bond market rally (probable) then Europe will outperform. So buying the Euro in this kind of crisis is, from my point of view, quite logical. You can buy Greek 2 year government debt with a yield of 17 percent. Hold to maturity.... and your are amply rewarded for your risk. If you are slightly more risk adverse then you have Portugal 2 year paper yielding more than 6%..... I mean find me more attractive options out there.

My premise? The stock market global bull run is over.

GVI Forex Jay 11:22 GMT March 16, 2011
Market Chatter: Reply
IB, thanks for your input.

What has defied logic for me is the way the market has jumped on ECB rate hike stories (e.g. yesterday when a known investment advisor made a hawkish ECB call for April) and pushed the euro higher in the midst of a market where other factors should have taken precedence. It is more the extent of the moves than direction that has defied logic for me.

So I am just focusing on 1.40 and taking a cue for market bias from that level.

GVI Forex Jay  11:19:37 GMT - 03/16/2011  
This was posted on the Forex Rorum in response to the update posted below:

Paris ib 11:05 GMT March 16, 2011
Market Chatter: Reply
Well if you believe that the moves defy logic then maybe you should look at your premises first. I don't know how you trade in a logic defying market. Just punt? Seems a bit too risky to me.

Fact is that U.S. Treasuries have underperformed Greek government debt during this chaos and the USD has sold off against virtually everything, with the exception (in the majors) of the AUD. I don't see that as encouraging for USD bulls and the failure to close above 1.4000 is what? Just the target to watch? So we close above 1.4000 and you change your view? Well then.... just a matter of time.

GVI Forex Jay  11:01:52 GMT - 03/16/2011  
11:00 GMT ( March 16 - Some of the moves of late defy logic as various cross flows seem to be driving the spot market more than outright USD trading. This includes yesterday, when the eur/usd turned around yet again and tested 1.40+ (high 1.4013) for the 4th time in the past 8 days but again without a confirming close above it. There is also a lower top as long as the 1.4037 March 7 high stays intact. This puts the onus on the bull side to establish 1.40+ or risk the market turning the other way but for the latter to happen, sub-1.39 needs to trade.

In the meantime, the market is in limbo with few chart points of interest or obvious stops between 1.39-1.40. Within this range 1.3950 (daily pivot point = 1.3953) will act as a sentiment indicator for day trading. Otherwise, key levels are not until 1.3852-1.4013 (this week’s range).

GVI Forex Jay  11:00:12 GMT - 03/15/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
11:00 GMT ( March 15 - The market was setup for a perfect storm for the eur/usd to attack 1.40+ if the FOMC maintained the status quo today but this has been thwarted as risk aversion takes over as stocks plunge globally. This has pushed other events into the background as the chf and jpy gain at the expense of other currencies in a general run for cover. Markets are currently pricing in a worst case scenario.

This has created a mixed picture for the dollar with falling commodity currencies leading the risk aversion charge and the eur/usd retreating from a 1.40 failure (and a lower top).

Using 1.3750-1.4003, 1.3847 = 61.8%.

This suggests 1.3850 will be pivotal in containing the downside as the sharp turnaround last Friday has left little in the way of key supports until 1.3750. S3 = 1.3831. Intra-day low has so far been 1.3855.

On the upside, back above yesterday’s 1.3902 low (initial resistance) is needed to cool the risk.

By the way - this thread is not designed to be a monolouge so feel free to post your comments as well.

GVI Forex Jay  11:30:30 GMT - 03/14/2011  
11:30 GMT ( March 14 - If it wasn’t for the Friday whipsaw that saw the dollar end on a soft note (probably due to hints of an EU summit deal)), the market would probably be embracing the JPY repatriation theme to start the week and that would have seen the dollar trade higher on jpy offsets. In addition, expectations that the BOJ will resist a sharp fall in usd/jpy have also restrained the market. Instead the dollar is opening mixed with the euro getting support from the EU summit deal, which opens the door for an ECB rate hike in April, but still remains below the pivotal 1.40 level.

Whatever the case, the outlook is complicated by events in Japan and this has likely sent some to the sidelines to reassess. To keep it simple, eur/usd 1.40 will set its tone going forwards and usd/jpy 82.00 will be pivotal as well with the BOJ expected to defend the pivotal 80.00 level as the record 79.75 low looms below. This makes 80-82 a battle zone for the market. The BOJ is more likely to intervene below 82 than above it. EUR/USD appears to be in a buy on dips mode while above 1.39 but trapped as long as sub-1.40 trades.

GVI Forex  Jay  11:04:31 GMT - 03/11/2011  
11:00 GMT ( March 11 - In this month’s newsletter,
Thoughts From the Forex Trenches
I wrote,

All things being equal, this suggests the forex market will remain sensitive to interest rate expectations and any news that would alter the consensus view. Of course other factors can come into play, such as events in the Middle East, sovereign debt concerns in Europe, US deficit concerns, etc so continue to expect the unexpected.

When I said continue to expect the unexpected I did not anticipate a catastrophic event such as the devastating earthquake in Japan. This has seen the JPY surge on anticipated repatriation flows with usd/jpy falling sharply while offsets out of JPY crosses lift the dollar elsewhere.

This has seen the eur/usd extend its retreat from Monday’s 1.40+ failure, breaking its daily trendline (1.3799 – see chart) and exposing key supports (see below), which suggest 1.3750 will be pvotal today in protecting these key supports

1.3746 = 20 day mva
1.3741 = key March 2 low
1.3709 = key Feb 28 low => close below would produce an outside week key reveral

Should 1.3709 be broken, it would leave a void of key supports and expose a risk for 1.3524 as a potential target.

On the upside, back above yesterday’s 1.3773 low would be needed to put 1.38 in play again.

GVI Forex Jay  12:00:24 GMT - 03/10/2011  
12:00 GMT ( March 10 - I posted these updates earlier in the week

On March 8 I said, in the battle of the two uglies (reserve currencies), it is easy to find a reason to explain weakness when it arises (e.g. USD = dovish Fed, large deficits; EUR = sovereign concerns). With the eur/usd failing on its first stab above 1.40, it becomes more sensitive to sovereign news and this has it more on the defensive. Today has seen a Spanish downgrade hit the euro as markets continue to give ratings agency more power than they deserve but why fight it while markets react.

On March 7 I posted the following,, should 1.40 fail to be established, then market would have to regroup as a retracement risk would come into play. In this regard, Monday’s high (1.4037) is important as a retracement risk often builds as the week winds on when the high (or low) for the week is set on a Monday..

This sets up the latter part of the week with the eur/usd on the defensive as key levels loom below. Key levels come in at:

1.3810 = S2
1.3800 (pivotal big figure)
1.3775 = key daily trendline
1.3741 = March 2 low
1.3737 = 20 day mva
1.3709 = Feb 28 low – most important as a close for the week below it would produce an outside week key reversal

On the upside, expect selling on blips while below 1.3853-61 (suggests 1.3850-60). Above this area would be needed to put 1.39 in play again.

Wild card is tomorrow’s EU meeting and discussions to expand the EFSF bailout facility given the renewed peripheral sovereign debt concerns

GVI Forex Jay  22:39:25 GMT - 03/09/2011  
Another tight range day on Wednesday, making last 3 out of 4 less than 100 pips. Interesting to note that Thursday's pivot ranges come in at:

1.3856 = S1
1.3945 = R1
1.3899 = daily pivot

This compares to Wednesday's range at 1.3853-1.3942, which was also around

1.3854 = 61.8% of 1.3741-1.4037
1.3945 = 50% of 1.4037-1.3853

If Wednesday is a guide, expect limited follow through while within 1.3850-1.3950 with 1.39 acting like a magnet until either side is broken. A fiirm break of either side would see 1.38 or 1.40 come on the radar.

In any case, the tight range will not last for long.

GVI Forex Jay  16:05:56 GMT - 03/08/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
As a followup to the post below, note how the 200 hour mva (as noted earlier) helped check the downside.

GVI Forex jay  13:55:28 GMT - 03/08/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
EUR/USD has traded above the 200 hour mva (yellow line) since Feb 22 and thus a key indicator to watch. Currently it comes in at 1.3858, which is within the sweet spot of support (see levels posted earlier on the forex forum).

JERUSALEM KB  18:07:43 GMT - 03/07/2011  
as per weekly chart , there is a strong ress. trend line now at 1.4085

JERUSALEM KB  18:05:54 GMT - 03/07/2011  

Entry: Target: Stop:
long term :
as per monthly chart i expect at least another 5candles or more inside this flag unless a breakout happened( it is highly possible to not see any breakout this year even if they raise rate).

GVI Forex Jay  16:26:12 GMT - 03/07/2011  
John, are you saying eur/usd is lagging widening interest rate differentials vs US??

GVI Forex john  16:04:48 GMT - 03/07/2011  
Re Chart below. Its worth noting we update it twice each trading. The first update is just before the Asia open (NY close). The second is midday in Europe pre-NY open). I know many traders here focus primarily on the technicals, but this fundamental is fast an easy to follow via our updates.

GVI Forex john  15:57:49 GMT - 03/07/2011  

Jay's been saying this is has become an interest rate market. Click on the image to see how it has changed.

EURUSD vs 2-yr Spread

Click on chart for more longer history

GVI Forex Jay  15:45:54 GMT - 03/07/2011  
Focus on 1.40:
1.40 is the focus this week:

There is only one level that matters for the eur/usd and that is 1.40, now having printed 2 days in a row. If you remember 1.38 (another pivotal level), it printed 5 days in a row before breaking out to the upside last week. Should 1.40 become support, targets would be 1.42 (next pivotal big figure) and 1.4282 (key Nov 4 high). Should it fail to be established, then market would have to regroup as a retracement risk would come into play. In this regard, Monday’s high (1.4035) is important as a retracement risk often builds as the week winds on when the high (or low) for the week is set on a Monday. Otherwise, trend is up but some indigestion around 1.40 would not surprise.

GVI Forex Jay  18:57:43 GMT - 03/03/2011  
Barring some external event, euro seems set to find support over the next month until the next ECB meeting. How the dollar trades in general will be influenced by whether eur/usd moves higher or euro follows the path of least resistance via its crosses. This depends on whether eur/usd stays below or moves above 1.40.

This does not mean there cannot be dips but downside should be limited as long as the market takes the ECB rate hike risk as a positive.

Comments welcomed.

GVI Forex Jay  15:40:46 GMT - 03/02/2011  
As a followup to what I posted yesterday about emerging currency CBs intervening and then diversifying reserves, this is a post by a GVI Forex member


This is an example of the sums involved here. Add in the likes of Russia, the Asians, etc etc, multiply it by approx .4 and you get an idea of how many € have been bot by this lot alone that want to limit their ccy strength.....

GVI Forex Jay  12:53:12 GMT - 03/02/2011  
This week's range has so far been just 146 pips, which was set on Monday, seems too tight to last given events over the next 2 days. By comparison:

- avg weekly range this year = 365 pips
- avg weekly gain this year excluding 1st 2 weeks = 259 pips
- range so far this week (1.3709-1.3855) = 146 pips

GVI Forex Jay  12:02:48 GMT - 03/02/2011  
12:00 GMT ( March 2 - EUR/USD has extended its trade around 1.38, which has now printed 5 days in a row. As noted, the longer this pattern goes on the greater the risk of a directional move once broken. The only levels that matter are 1.3855 and 1.3861 on top. On the downside, the sharp move up leaves little in the way of obvious support so 1.38 continues to set the tone. Upside contained as long as 1.3855-61 holds.

Barring another run out of risk similar to yesterday, eur/usd seems set to find support on dips ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting. Test comes afterwards with a hawkish Trichet and upward revised inflation forecasts widely expected.

GVI Forex Jay  15:30:32 GMT - 03/01/2011  
This is important because it is one reason for euro strength (note, emerging market central banks defend their currency through intervention and convert part of the usd bought into euros to balance the reserve basket). If you have any questions on this please ask away:

From the Forex Forum:

GVI Forex john 15:24 GMT March 1, 2011
Market Chatter: Reply
More details-

- Another trigger for EUR weakness has been a widening of the intervention band in the Russian rouble (RUB) to 5 roubles. It is expected that by widening the band the central bank will have to intervene less to contain the price of their currency (selling roubles buying USD or EUR). When they intervened buying USD, the central bank was converting them to EUR.

This would imply less demand for EURUSD if the plan works.

GVI Forex Jay 15:19 GMT March 1, 2011
Market Chatter: Reply
This was posted on GVI Forex and may be why the euro dipped a short while ago.

Russia widens RUB band, allows RUB to appreciate and announces reduced size of interventions....

Note when the Russian CB intervenes buying USD, it then turns around and sells part of it to buy EUR to adjust its reserve basket. Less intervention means less buying of euros.

Low just now was 1.3795, suggests 1.38 remains the bias setter.

GVI Forex Jay  20:43:28 GMT - 02/28/2011  
I posted this on GVI Forex

Logical trader says:

Tomorrow Bernanke's testimony will be the focus and expect him to follow what Dudley said today, which is staying dovish and a contrast to an expected hawkish ECB meeting on Thursday. Logic suggests the dollar trades defensively ahead of his testimony anticipating a continued dovish stance.

GVI Forex Jay  18:51:22 GMT - 02/28/2011  
Note previous post below this one:

Higher monthly close (bullish) but pause below 1.3861 high (Monday high 1.3855) maintains range.

Note two patterns:

Daily pattern: 1.38 has printed 3 days in a row - tone going forwards will be set by whether 1.38 becomes support or resistance once this pattern is broken.

Weekly pattern: 1.36 has printed 6 weeks in a row. If this pattern is broken (on the upside) this week (still a long way to go) it would be a bullish euro signal but only confirmed by a firm 1.3861 break.

This thread is still a monologue and could use some other input to build some traction in it (hint!)

GVI Forex Jay  00:02:09 GMT - 02/28/2011  
This is from GVI Forex

and I am posting it because it is a pattern to watch out for the rest of this day to see if there is a higher monthly close and a pattern to watch (6 weeks in a row printing 1.36) for the rest of the week.

Singapore Sfx 23:50 GMT February 27, 2011
Eurusd: Reply
Two things to watch for me this week - (apart from Natalie Portman) ..

Will Eurusd manage a close above January's close (1.3690) tonight.

Will the Eurusd extend its 1.36 pivot to 7 weeks.

Also, for these type of threads to grow they can't be monologues and need participation. Posts here will not scroll off as fast as the forex forum and thus are a complement and act as a good reference for the days ahead.

GVI Forex Jay  10:42:12 GMT - 02/27/2011  
The Irish election has potential implications for the euro and reviving sovereign risk as a factor. We will see whether the market reacts on Monday as other factors (e.g. Libya, ECB meeting on Thursday) can divert the market's attention. I am posting the link here as this is a story that will have a longer shelf life ahead of the March 11 EU summit.

Ireland's new government on a collision course with EU

GVI Forex  22:08:44 GMT - 02/25/2011  
To illustrate a point from the post below, note how the 100 hour mva (green line) checked the downside on Friday.

What this does for me is increase the importance of the 100 hour mva in the week ahead.

GVI Forex  22:05:25 GMT - 02/25/2011  
Sometimes a chart says more than a bunch of words. This is the current eur/usd picture.

What the chart doesn't show is the significance of 1.38 as it has a powerful psychological component as a sentiment indicator. While within 1.37-1.38, 1.3750 takes on that role. Note how 1.3750 acted like a magnet once eur/usd found support at its 100 hour mva (another indicator to watch).

GVI Forex Jay  00:57:22 GMT - 02/25/2011  
I will discuss pivotal/psychological levels at a different time but suffice it to say that eur/usd 1.38 is a key pivotal big figure that will dictate its tone going forwards. While trading bid above 1.38 (tone shifts if below it), eur/usd needs to break 1.3861 to avoid charts showing a lower top. That sums up my tech view for now, which is we are in a make or break period. Only one key level on top (1.3861). No obvious key levels on downside so 1.38 is the one to watch.

GVI Forex john  19:57:14 GMT - 02/24/2011  
Starting a Discussion thread for EURUSD and/or EUR crosses.

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