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melb 01:22:21 GMT - 05/31/2012  
Yen has cost me a bucket load lately...not so much in trading, but i want to buy a lodge over there and go snowboarding...cant do that until it starts tanking!

Bank Exchange Rate



GVI Forex Jay  16:01:59 GMT - 05/17/2012  
 
False break of the daily downtrendline setup the breadown to the downside. Looking at the chart, below 79.50 exposes the 200 day mva (yellow line) as next key area. Needs back above 79.50 to keep focus on 80.

As posted on GVI Forex


GVI Forex Jay  13:41:44 GMT - 03/06/2012  
Trading Patterns:

This is a post I made on GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay 13:21 GMT March 6, 2012 - My Profile
Trading Patterns: Reply
As you know, I am always on a watch for patterns around pivotal big figures. In thsi regard, EURJPY appears it will break a 7-day print of 108 and see what happened today when it failed to be extended. Maybe stops start to bunch closer the longer a consolidation pattern goes on. All I know is that these patterns offer low risk trading opportunities as long as they go on and a risk of a directional mvoe once broken. I like the former as the risk/reward is good and you can trade either side but the breakdown of the pattern opens the door for a directional move, This one worked out pretty well.




GVI Forex Jay  22:35:46 GMT - 03/02/2012  
 
USDJPY broke the 20 month mva at February's close (80.49):

My view on patterns is that the longer they go on the more significant when broken. I am also posting the USDJPY monthly chart going back 10 years. The red line is the 20 month mva and the last time USDJPY traded above it was at the close of July 2007. That is a long time for a pattern and why so much attention is being given to it. 81.26 was Feb close vs 80.49 20 mth mva.


GVI Forex JAy  13:02:09 GMT - 02/14/2012  
 
Daily chart -- close above the 200 day mva (78.04) would be the first tome in 10 months. The 79.51 Oct 31 intervention high becomes the target if 78.00 is established as support. January and 2012 high is 78.28 and thus key resistance.


GVI Forex JAy  15:33:43 GMT - 01/30/2012  
 
The best you can say about the usdjpy chart is that it failed at the 200 day mva (yellow line) and reversed but by any measure this is an ugly chart. Major support is 75.55, the Oct 31 low that was followed by BOJ intervention that saw the high that day at 79.51.

So what does logic say? BOJ needs to defend 76.00 to prevent a run at 75.55 again.

What do charts say? Feel free to comment.

As for eurjpy, watch 100 as a sentiment indicator for risk, euro and jpy.


GVI Forex JAy  12:35:33 GMT - 01/27/2012  
 
76.85 has flipped between support and resistance, currently the former (see one hour chart)

One goal of posting in member forums is to generate discussion in a more personal environment so feel free to post a comment.


GVI Forex Jay  00:23:49 GMT - 01/25/2012  
If anyone has questions on how to use info gleaned from crosses to trade spot (see prior post), please feel free to ask. Note how eurusd moved up Tuesday once usdjpy ran into resistance as eurjpy moved higher.

As for jpy levels,

78.02-22 remains key resistance.

Support at 77.30-40

eurjpy 101.41 = 50 day mva


GVI Forex Jay  16:33:18 GMT - 01/24/2012  
If anyone needs an explanation feel free to ask:

GVI Forex Jay 16:03 GMT January 24, 2012 - My Profile
euro: Reply
Driving flow (jpy crosses) were pretty clear as I posted earlier. If usdjpy had not broken out to the upside, eurusd would have gone up from eurjpy offsets. Firmer usdjpy took pressure off eurusd to absorb the brunt of the flows. Cross trading 101.

GBPJPY has been the leader as GBP crosses gain against all pairs (including vs euro as well, neutralizing some of the eurjpy effect).

As posted on GVI Forex


GVI Forex JAy  13:37:12 GMT - 01/24/2012  
 
USDJPY daily chart - breaking out to new highs new high.

78.02-22 is next key chart levels and 78.37 (200 day mva) while above the 77.30isdh level.


GVI Forex JAy  14:02:52 GMT - 12/22/2011  
 
USDJPY is quietly creeping higher. A firm break of 78.27 would target the 200 day mva (yellow line - see chart)


GVI Forex Jay  15:15:23 GMT - 10/19/2011  
USDJPY UPDATE

52 days trading within 75.93-77.85



GVI Forex Jay  11:06:53 GMT - 10/05/2011  
USDJPY Scorecard (excluding today):

41 days in a row between 76-78 (one exception when low was 75.93)

22 days traded 77+, 19 days high has been below 77

6 closes above 77, only one in past 16 sessions (77.07 high 3 days ago)



GVI Forex  10:47:51 GMT - 09/27/2011  
 
USDJPY daily chart


GVI Forex  10:40:44 GMT - 09/27/2011  
One of our GVI Forex members pointed out that usd/jpy has traded within 76-78 for 36 consecutive days (only exception was the Aug 19 low at 75.93). This includes the past 7 days where the low has been within 76.00-50

Question for me is what happens once fiscal half yearend pressures ease. Will the BOJ be more aggressive? In any case, the invisible hand has kept the downside in check above 76.00


GVI Forex Jay  12:39:37 GMT - 08/26/2011  
We have been searching for reasons for the firmer JPY (vs. USD and on crosses). All that we have come up with was posted on GVI Forex , which is

a rumor of a China reval over the weekend and JPY has firmed as a proxy.


GVI Forex Jay  11:53:55 GMT - 08/05/2011  
From a RTRS recap in our blog:

...Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said he was closely watching yen moves on Friday, signalling a readiness to continue selling the currency.

Some market players said further yen intervention could come
later in the session if U.S. non-farm payrolls due at 1230 GMT
undershoot a forecast increase of 85,000 in July and trigger a
fresh bout of risk aversion.

"Dollar/yen is slowly fading but the process of intervention
has not stopped. They impressed the market yesterday but have to continue to do so," said Sebastien Galy, currency strategist at Societe Generale.

"There is very little incentive to intervene before non-farm
payrolls but if there is a poor number chances are they will
intervene seconds afterwards.",,,



GVI Forex Jay  17:21:04 GMT - 06/28/2011  
USD/JPY is most sensitive to changes in US interest rates (e.g. bond yields since short-term rates are not changing for a long time),


GVI Forex Jay  11:50:53 GMT - 05/05/2011  
USD/JPY finally testing 80 (and breaking below) as the pace picked up from the slow grind, fueled by the sell-off in commodities and unwinding of carry trades.

Why 79-80 is important is this is where the G7 intervention started that eventually saw a high at 85.54 on April 7 so it took about a month to retrace those gains.

While major support is 76.25, 79-80 is where the BOJ will need to defend to avoid momentum from gathering further steam as I do not see the G7 joining in again given the way the dollar has weakened elsewhere over this period.

On the downside, there is talk of stops from 79.50 through 78.00.

On the upside, Japanese import demand is often seen after a long holiday and with Japan opening again on Friday after the Golden Week holidays, it is something to keep in mind.

Otherwise, the only chart points are at 78.99 (March 18 low) and 76.25 (March 17 record low).


GVI Forex Jay  11:34:50 GMT - 05/03/2011  
USD/JPY, except for that one day blip last week, has been on a slow path to 80.XX and is now in this pivotal area. 80.90 is 50% of 76.25-85.54 (currently below it). 80.68 is a key support. 80.50 probably most important as to whether 80 gets exposed.

Question is would the G7 would agree to intervene again if sub-80 trades (doubtful?).

Other question is what happens when repatriation flows to rebuild start to take over?


GVI Forex  10:59:25 GMT - 04/29/2011  
 
After the mid-week test failed above 82.50, usd/jpy appears back in its slow drift towards 80.xx. Daily chart shows it below key mvas and would need to renew 82+ to ease the risk. 82 has printed 5 out of the past 6 days so a break of this pattern would be a negative sign. This week's low has been 81.24 vs. 81.27 low so far today.

Note 80.90 = 50% of 76.25-85.54

What makes it hard in this pair is that JPY crosses are the main focus with USD/JPY tending to lag no matter what direction the dollar trades.


GVI Forex Jay  19:47:19 GMT - 04/27/2011  
82.50 turned out to be a good guide and looks like 82.00 is still the focus.

Note how usd/jpy is influenced by US interest rates, especially the 2-year, which moved higher pre-FOMC decision and has since moved back as lower US rates are weighing on the dollar in general.

Last 2-yr 0.65% vs. 0.69% just before the FOMC statement.


GVI Forex Jay  14:58:21 GMT - 04/27/2011  
As posted on GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay 14:53 GMT April 27, 2011 - My Profile
JPY - cross trading 101: Reply
I posted this earlier and move up in usd/jpy has eased offset pressure elsewhere on the dollar to bear the full brunt of jpy selling via crosses.

The weaker jpy suggests carry trades remain in force and while this also impacts the dollar (as a carry trade favorite), the move up in usd/jpy has taken some of the pressure off offsets.


Please feel free to ask questions if this is not clear.





GVI Forex Jay  14:30:58 GMT - 04/27/2011  
82.46 = 50 day mva
82.63 = 100 day mva

200 day mva at 83.25 and 20 day mva at 93.35 are still distant.

As noted in prior post, 82.42 is a key resistance - broken

Suggests 82.50 will be important whether focus shifts from 82 to 83+

Note jpy crosses (e.g. eur/jpy, eur/gbp) giving support to usd/jpy


GVI Forex Jay  11:09:32 GMT - 04/27/2011  
S&P downgrade, while not really a surprise, was enough to send the JPY in a tailspin with selling out of its crosses boosting usd/jpy back above 82. This makes it 4 out of the past 5 days that 82.00 has printed, exception being yesterday where the high was 81.97. This sent a bearish signal but expectations of a slow crawl towards 80 have been derailed for now by the overnight moves.

On the upside, 82.42 and 83.09 are key resistance levels, 82.42 important as a move above would end a string of lower highs/lower lows although jpy crosses seem more important in this carry trade environment.

As noted in the prior update, I have no position in this pair and trying to give an objective look at it.

Worth noting is our FX Chart points where S1 at 81.36 checked the downside (low 81.35)

GVI FX Chart Points

Feel free to comment and continue this discussion.



GVI Forex Jay  23:56:03 GMT - 04/26/2011  
I posted this earlier on GVI Forex -I have no position in it and was trying to take an objective view:

GVI Forex Jay 19:54 GMT April 26, 2011 - My Profile
usd/jpy: Reply
It looks like a slow boat to 80 to test MOF/BOJ resolve?



GVI Forex  14:15:10 GMT - 03/08/2011  
 
Note the cluster of 20/50/100 day mva (between 82.46-65), about midway in its 81.84 range. Comments welcomed.

See FX Chart Points


GVI Forex Jay  21:07:55 GMT - 02/28/2011  
And also just a reminder, March is the fiscal year-end for most of Japanese large corporates and more Yen hedges will be made before the second week of March. Normally this creates demand for JPY.


Bern DS  13:03:42 GMT - 02/26/2011  


Entry: 8250 Target: 7750 Stop: 8400
For me still the best risk reward trade to the downside- market seems to be believing at some Central Bank support- I think , we are miles away from BOJ support. Nobody cares about USDJPY to fall another 10pct. Japan investors still have invested a lot overseas and wait till they will loose confidence in EURO Land and will start selling their assets abroad, this will mean , all those medium term longs in EURJPY will be whipped out greatly and we will be trading around 90.000 in the cross- this is most likely to be done this spring... only over 11500 would be changing long term view in this cross...


GVI Forex Jay  13:36:27 GMT - 02/25/2011  
Tokyo JT also posted this on the forex forum and is worth noting as well (see below for his other comments).

London SFH
Yes correct! CrossYen is more juicy than DolYen straight. I am well aware of this but my real business has receivables in USDs so this is why I trade DolYen the most as part of my real jobs.

More volatility in Yen crosses of course.
Greater Volatility = Greater Risk = More expensive to hedge.

London ex,
80 Yen is a milestone to me and I believe it is for everyone who trades Dolyen. Will it go be tested? I don't know, but we are not far from there. If you ask me how would I react if it tested? I would not do anything as I am already hedged for 75 or 90 Yen.

Singapore SGFXTrader,
If 81 Yen gives way, 80 Yen would be the next victim as well.
I am still bearish on the USD until proven otherwise.

As for EUR, this currency was heavily sold against others. So, I would not be surprised to see 100-200 points higher.


GVI Forex Jay  13:34:20 GMT - 02/25/2011  
This was posted on the forex forum by Tokyo JT, an experienced professional and Global-View member.

DlrYen looks to me like what it was in late 1994 trading around 95 -100 yen range when people were expecting a huge bounce back towards 110 Yen but it kept staying in the range for 6 months before it crashed and created all-time low. I remember clearly how this happened because I was helping Jpn trust Banks and Lifers to do the hedgings...

This market won't stop until it's really overshot which I dont think it is now (maybe I am wrong, Business-wise, I do hope I am wrong because huge drops in Dlryen will jeopadize the already weak economy, exports here in Jpn) IMHO.

Either way, I am fully hedged and ready for any big swings.
Believe it or not, I am still carrying short created a year-and-half ago. But I did the hedging (buy Yen puts, selling Yen calls, and combination of these in different time frames & amount to lower the hedging costs) to protect my trades. To me, carrying cash position (Spot position) without hedges, (does not matter how good the results are) is more like roulette games...

And also just a reminder, March is the fiscal year-end for most of Japanese large corporates and more Yen hedges will be made before the second week of March..
Gud luck and keep it up!!


GVI Forex john  11:40:39 GMT - 02/25/2011  
Starting a Discussion thread for USDJPY and/or JPY crosses.





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