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Forex Forum Archive for 12/04/2023

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GVI Forex 22:04 GMT December 4, 2023

With US bond yields a focus the current 10 year range is 4.20%~4.30%

San Francisco Monedge 18:49 GMT December 4, 2023

Targeting 148.00.

San Francisco Monedge 18:40 GMT December 4, 2023

Probabilities favor the market targeting Usd/Jpy after today's NY session in our view, barring developing conditions to the contrary.

dc CB 17:20 GMT December 4, 2023
"We are out of money � and nearly out of time," wrote the Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young to Congressional leaders in a letter made public Monday. There are a mere few weeks left before the US must stop giving money to Ukraine. Young warned that the sudden end to aid will "kneecap" Ukraine on the battlefield.

President Biden has been seeking a whopping $106 billion aid package chiefly for Ukraine and Israel. But budget director Young says the proverbial writing is on the wall amid GOP resistance.

"Without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from US military stocks," Young wrote. "There is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment. We are out of money � and nearly out of time," she said.

mainstream media continues its dramatic narrative shift...

Washington Post: "victory for Ukraine" is now "far less likely than years of war and destruction."

San Francisco Monedge 16:49 GMT December 4, 2023

Hi JP - Current read is 48%. Bullish but not yet fully seasoned until 55%. Expecting intermediate short cycle to begin to form in roughly 20-30 minutes. Confidence is not high that the selling is strong due to the negative factor orders affecting stocks. A somewhat key day for various dominant money flows in various markets in our view.

Mtl JP 16:44 GMT December 4, 2023

USD not being exactly consistent here
up against the yen but down vs th euro

but overall dlrx still got the bid as still above the 200day

Mtl JP 16:39 GMT December 4, 2023

UPS deserves a musk's now famous treatment and customers vote w/feet

dc CB 16:21 GMT December 4, 2023

UPS to hike US diesel surcharges under adjusted formula
Move comes amid ongoing decline in highway diesel pump prices

Effective Monday, UPS (NYSE: UPS) will assess a 15.25% fuel levy on all shipments moving under those domestic services. The surcharge applies to the base rates and to any add-on charges known as accessorials.

Mtl JP 16:15 GMT December 4, 2023

Monedge plz share dlryen 147.00 current momentum driven model's reading

tia !

dc CB 16:13 GMT December 4, 2023

GVI Forex 16:04 GMT
Look at metals...

See my Yellen Menu.
of course, a little early but it's traditional to kick them to the curb when there's a Big Bond auction-----3's, 10s, 30's in the lined up in the chute.

dc CB 16:05 GMT December 4, 2023

Next week----Yellen's offerings----big Exec Meals straddling the Powell's Holiday Gift---'basket off goodies or enough coal to heat your house for One Week'

Treas Sked---The Elves working furiously in Gammy's Workshop

GVI Forex 16:04 GMT December 4, 2023

Look at metals...a broker told me this is where the action has been... but today??

Mtl JP 15:54 GMT December 4, 2023

just had a look at the week's econ calendar:
so-called "incoming data" to the FED gang
JOLTS tuesday
ADP wednesday
NFP friday

GVI Forex 15:50 GMT December 4, 2023

Correlations are with US yields (higher)

EURUSD 1,08 defense?

Mtl JP 15:49 GMT December 4, 2023

typo err 1.0845 sb 1.08045

GVI Forex 15:46 GMT December 4, 2023

Correlations are with US yields (higher)

Mtl JP 15:44 GMT December 4, 2023

DLRx continues to romp higher atm
euro at 1.0845 just above Jay's magic of round number

San Francisco Monedge 15:34 GMT December 4, 2023
If Usd/Jpy blows through 147 it will be now. No carry over correlation to stocks so far overall.

dc CB 15:33 GMT December 4, 2023

in an move to influence the FOMC---notice that the data releases plus NUZ headlines, that the prevailing narrative has changed.

'(XXXXX) tumbled even more than expected, down XXXX MoM - the biggest drop since the COVID lockdowns (April 2020). (month XXX) was also revised lower (making this month's) decline even worse'

This instead of saying --- oh, yeh we were lying...

Mtl JP 15:31 GMT December 4, 2023

some of my sensory receptors suggest that euro under 1.0850 and now under S Pivot 1 appears to be players repricing jerome's "well restrictive territory" vs "premature" to rule out tightening.

Hk Ab 15:31 GMT December 4, 2023
Dramatic under 2000?

Mtl JP 15:16 GMT December 4, 2023

DLRx 103.52
continues to hover above its 200day
eminently trade-able

Hk Ab 15:07 GMT December 4, 2023
Volatility matters

GVI Forex 14:20 GMT December 4, 2023

EURUSD 200 day nova 1.0818

GVI Forex 14:09 GMT December 4, 2023

US yields up after plunge at Friday�s close did not carry over

Hk Ab 14:05 GMT December 4, 2023
Dramatic close under 2000?

San Francisco Monedge 12:18 GMT December 4, 2023

The aforementioned intermediate buy cycle is beginning now. The peak should be around 6am Pacific Time. The ensuing cycle would be down.

Should the down cycle of monetary flow be widespread, that would equate to continued weakness in Usd/Jpy and likely buy interest for US stocks.

For further perspective visit

San Francisco Monedge 12:07 GMT December 4, 2023
Usd/Jpy was moving all of last week and this morning in 3 hour dominant cycles and 1.5 hr intermediate cycles on an intra-day basis. The next cycle is an intermediate round of buying against the dominant sell interest.

Therefore, not sold on buying yet.

Mtl JP 09:26 GMT December 4, 2023

BRENT 77.79
crude 72.90
at a three-week low
Players do not currently appear concerned a bit about some drones or such attacking maritime vessles - of any kind.

hk ab 08:15 GMT December 4, 2023
sharky move too obvious

Mtl JP 01:09 GMT December 4, 2023

Ab 23:29 - interesting Qtn., the answer , if tue, would probably be not so much about magnitude as about the speed of the rush for exit and so that much more interesting. has so far some tame-toned pieces on Chinese mainland's holdings of USTs

Mtl JP 00:47 GMT December 4, 2023
Von Der Leyen

PAR ...
just be prepared to a) simply pay more and b) increasingly face new barriers to using fossil fuels.
and never mind the kabuki theaterical tiff spectacle put on by Sultan Al-Jaber, Guterres and Kerry

One may want, for example, to keep a close eye on one's pension fund dumping money into alternative / "green" energy stocks.

Hk Ab 00:13 GMT December 4, 2023
So, all stops above 2070 clear


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