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Forex Forum Archive for 06/16/2021

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GVI Forex 23:53 GMT June 16, 2021
eurusd

1.1985 is the next key AT level

The Amazing Trader

GVI Forex 19:27 GMT June 16, 2021
John Bland
Reply   
As I posted on the AT forum last week

GVI Forex 14:33 GMT April 21, 2021
Day Trading Using AT: Reply
One thing John taught me is not to fade a central bank decision reaction.

His words of wisdom proved prophetic again today.

Tallinn viies 18:46 GMT June 16, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
bought at 1,2015 back half long euro I sold at 1,2185.
normal long again.

GVI Forex 18:40 GMT June 16, 2021
FOMC Statement

10 year 1.567% vs 1.485% pre decision

Tallinn viies 18:20 GMT June 16, 2021
supercycle
Reply   
closed long brent at 74,06.
just for a day or two. profit is always profit. right?

GVI Forex 18:19 GMT June 16, 2021
FOMC Statement
Reply   
Press Release

June 16, 2021

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Share
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

Progress on vaccinations has reduced the spread of COVID-19 in the United States. Amid this progress and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement. Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In addition, the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued June 16, 2021

Tallinn viies 18:19 GMT June 16, 2021
gbpusd
Reply   
closed gbpusd.

PAR 18:11 GMT June 16, 2021
PPT
Reply   
PPT buying stock index futures.

Everything is under control.

PAR 17:34 GMT June 16, 2021
EUROPE
Reply   
European policy should not be against Russia but pro Europe. That would make a huge difference.

GVI 16:01 GMT June 16, 2021
Fed expected to flag start of monetary policy shift debate
Reply   
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday are expected to at least signal the pending start of talks about when and how to exit from the crisis-era policies the U.S. central bank put in place at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic last year.

Fed expected to flag start of monetary policy shift debate

GVI Forex 14:29 GMT June 16, 2021
eurusd



and now...

EURGBP up after holding the bottom of AT .8580-83 support

EURUSD up on EUR buying out of the cross

GBPUSD down a touch on offsets

I am only posting this to show how to get in touch with the forex flows (see my article in the blog)

The Amazing Trader

GVI Forex 13:41 GMT June 16, 2021
Event Risk Reality

4 hours and 19 minutes until lift off

Feel free to post any thoughts on trading this key event.

GVI Forex 12:30 GMT June 16, 2021
eurusd

Using crosses as a clue to trade spot (in this case a scalp trade)

EURGBP lower

EURUSD lower out of EURGBP selling

EURGBP holds AT support at .8580/83

EURUSD follows bounce in GBPUSD as cross related selling eases (scalp trade)

All will be clear when you get access to

The Amazing Trader

PAR 11:01 GMT June 16, 2021
ECB LAGARDE CRUELLA PONZI MAFIA

Full speed bond-buying till Macron is reelected.

GVI Forex 10:44 GMT June 16, 2021
EURGBP
Reply   


Approaching an AT (red lines) support zone (.8580-83)

The Amazing Trader

GVI Forex 10:34 GMT June 16, 2021
eurusd

Once again, EURGBP (down) is a driver of EURUSD (touch softer) and GBPUSD )firmer) after hotter than expected UK CPI in a market clearly on hold awaiting the Fed and as clearly shown by

The Amazing Trader

GVI Forex 09:17 GMT June 16, 2021
Event Risk Reality
Reply   
As I posted on the At Forum yesterday

The thing about events like the FOMC is that markets will spin the outcome however it wants as there is no immediate change in policy on the horizon. So it cherry picks the words and then reacts to suit the flows.


In the past central banks seemed to relish surprising markets. Those days seem long gone. Powell has made it clear the Fed will not look to surprise the markets and prepare expectations well in advance for any change in policy. The first step would seem to be today but it is still a baby step.

So far, US bond yields showing little concern.

Tallinn viies 08:38 GMT June 16, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
Syd wr 08:34 GMT - daytime dreaming or consumed too much drugs?

Syd wr 08:34 GMT June 16, 2021
eurusd

I hate to burst your bubble, but today will be a key reversal day. So start looking to trade the exact opposite direction to what you have in the last 5 months. Party time and easy money time is over....i just i thought i give all of your a warning 10 hours before the fact.

Tallinn viies 08:33 GMT June 16, 2021
supercycle
Reply   
China intervention?

last time they tried then at least crude went up another 50%.

China to release copper, aluminium and zinc reserves to stabilise prices

PAR 08:11 GMT June 16, 2021
ECB LAGARDE CRUELLA PONZI MAFIA
Reply   
To the moon Rocket! #ECB balance sheet hit a fresh ATH as Lagarde keeps printing press rumbling. Total assets rose by another 20.8bn to 7,700.9 despite rising inflation. ECB balance sheet now equal to 77.3% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 36.1%, BoE's 38.7% or BoJ's 133.4%.

Tallinn viies 08:06 GMT June 16, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
Kaunas DP 07:55 GMT - eurusd 1,2217 target for this week.
gbp usd made an outside day yesterday. as long as previous day high holds it may test previous day low again. this is the rational behind cable. if previous day high taken out then next previous week high. I have stop and reverse order out there.

Kaunas DP 07:55 GMT June 16, 2021
eurusd

viies,

so you bet eur/usd to go UP
but
short gbp/usd same time
so you bet eur/gbp will FLY and gbp/usd die?

HK Kevin 07:50 GMT June 16, 2021
gbpusd

Similar movement of Cable as yesterday during European opening. BTW, I entered short at 1.4120 and now stop at b/e.

Tallinn viies 07:45 GMT June 16, 2021
eurusd
Reply   
finally transitory day is here. are they talking about talking hiking rates any time soon? seems market preparing for a mentioning tapering process may start during next 3 months.
common agreement seems to be Jackson Hole meeting in the end of august is a official day of announcing their plans.
so for today FED mission is to keep markets going higher. not let them down. 8 million "hard working americans" are still without a job. although by JOLTS report there is 9 million open jobs available currently. but printing comes first.
nasdaq100 target for this week 14 400.
brent target 76,00.
eurusd needs to take out previous week high to get things going to upside again.
good luck.

Tallinn viies 07:34 GMT June 16, 2021
gbpusd
Reply   
yes indeed. 1.4095 should be correct.

Belgrade Knez 06:33 GMT June 16, 2021
gbpusd

Tallinn viies 06:23 GMT June 16, 2021
good morning,
took short cable position at 1,2095. stop and reverse at 1,2135.
target 1,2035.
-------------------------------------------------
viies
did you mixed up the numbers or pair you enterred the trade?

Tallinn viies 06:23 GMT June 16, 2021
gbpusd
Reply   
good morning,
took short cable position at 1,2095. stop and reverse at 1,2135.
target 1,2035.

 




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