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Forex Forum Archive for 01/05/2003

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Ldn Cashman 23:57 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Tks RS and TDR, had quite a barney.
Some lame excuse but they reinstated my possy. I wouldn't mind, but if I tried to get away with 15 pips at work I'd have me nuts chewed offff..

Tallinn viies 23:55 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
IFR
EUR/USD Techs - 61.8% Fibo At 1.0440 Is Key Today

Tallinn viies 23:28 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
my emotions n feelings are with u dollar bulls,
mainly because US stock indexes are quite bullish at the moment
there could be very nice run up, after mr Bush tax supports.
technically I cannt go against strong trend
only if last week low traded again

nyc 23:19 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
USD/JPY "still looks heavy" after softness Friday, says senior Tokyo bank trader; range likely 119.20-120.00, with outside chance of breaking lower to probe underlying support around 118.70. Given prevailing geopolitical tension weighing on USD accross board, pair "could test 118.00 later this week"; still, a too-sudden plunge could provoke Japan MOF FX-watchers, who are back to work today after New Year's holiday.

Tallinn viies 23:18 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
van Gecko 22:07 - good to see u!
it is cool that u keep your emotions under control :)
I will join with u and the euro bears if last week low doesnt hold (1,0335).
until this level I try to collect more cheap euros.

Geneva Oliver 23:15 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Va Raven I wanted to thank you (made a mistake before) - Okay, I am taking your advice and I have opted for option 1 and I will try to increase the stop to 1.6141 in GBPUSD position. Thanks and good trading.

Sydney S. 23:06 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
van Gecko thanks, been following you silently over the years you have been on GV . appreciate your answer.

van Gecko 23:02 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
good morning Sydney S.. my system is now biased for a good size dollar correction over the s/m/term.. s/t targets; EUR/USD 1.02- 1.01- 1.00..
imo euphoric buying of Euro up here at these levels could turn out to be 'anti-euphoric buy high, sell low' in the near future..
in general, directional bias for the majors also applies to AUD & KIWI over the s/m/t trading time frames..
gl..



Melb RS 22:58 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
EUR opened 28-31, range 14-30

Ldn Cashman 22:56 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Brilliant, thank you guys....

Melb RS 22:52 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
London Cashman...I've been here since 5am Sydney open and EBS high has been 1.0430 FYG.

Houston TDR 22:51 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Cashman, My Comstock feed show the eur opened at 1.0415 and moved up to 1.0426 during the first 10 minutes but has remained below 1.0422 since then

Houston mw 22:50 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Philly, thats Hooey. Look for another broker.

Provo John 22:50 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Corneilus Luca's book "Currency Trading in the Global Curreny Market" is the most complete you will find.

Good day everyone. Hope your holidays were enjoyable. Time to get back to work. Hope the year is profitable for all of us!

Heusden Ed 22:43 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Hello, can anybody recommend me a good book on daytrading the forex market. I heard of George Angell's "daytrading with precision" but i'm not sure if it can be applied to forex ....thnx

Ldn Cashman 22:38 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Can anybody kindly tell me if the EUR/USD spiked up at the opening. Someone is trying to fill a S/L of mine at 1.0445, think he's having me over. Many thanks

Mass 22:33 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
USD/JPY pending order SELL-LIMIT 120,76 to 115,96; stop 121,96 Any comments, gentlemen?

Sydney S. 22:21 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
van Gecko- does your dollar strength also relate to currencies such as the AUD & KIWI again thanks

Sydney S. 22:21 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
van Gecko good morning Sir, you seem bullish USD this week do you have a time scale for the USD strength in January is it short term many thanks and agree with your view on emotions.

waterloo yong 22:09 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Gen dk thank you too for replying my email to understand ur trading signals..i will give a test on Monday by following what u told me.. hope have a good start.. however, no matter what, still appricate you so much.. keep u in contact in monday moring then..

van Gecko 22:07 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Here today.. Gone tommorrow.." a dreaded disease affecting over 98% of old & new traders..
most of us trade with common life long instincts, we react to the present with emotions & dwell in the past with hindsights.. most of us lose..
inorder to alter the odds and stay a bit longer, one must trade with some sound analytic plan & learn to react into the future with robotic emotions..
;
EUR/USD @ 1.0418, USD/CHF @ 139.82, GBP/USD @ 1.6088..
these are very attractive USD long marching trade levels..
risk 100 pips for 200+ pips return with a 98% odds..
fwiw.. biased freebies.. read/use with care..



waterloo yong 22:02 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Melb mpfx // thank you so much for ur comments..and keep in contact then, and i also have a short position for Eur at 1.411.. any comments for Eur as well?

Tallinn viies 21:25 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
good evening friends!
as I said last week,
if euro closes over 1,0360,
I will turn bullish on that again!
so, bought really tiny euro long position at 1,0424
planning to add near 1,0385/90.
lets see how things turn out.
target 1,0505/10 first

Melb mpfx 21:06 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Toronto BA // It is my own system developed in Excel.
gt..

Toronto BA 20:59 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   

Melb- what program do you find good for buy sell signals?

thx
BA

Melb mpfx 20:53 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
waterloo yong // I am not sure about Gbp direction at present, the rollercoaster ride of last two days sends most trend based systems into chaos. My buy/sell generator is in nuetral at present but I will be watching to see if 1.6079 holds as a base first, if it fails I see the 1.6020 area as next support.
gl with your trade...

Geneva Oliver 20:49 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
hk revdax - Okay, I am taking your advice and I have opted for option 1 and I will try to increase the stop to 1.6141 in GBPUSD position. Thanks and good trading.

Philly brm 20:45 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Good info! Here is what the website says "For accounts that do not have a 2% margin requirement, the rollover amount is deducted from the account for each position regardless of the account's holdings. This 2% margin requirement is the most generous policy available to traders in the forex industry, as many firms require 3-5% minimum margin before traders can benefit from rollover". Is this a bunch of hooey? I am trading a mini acct currently so my margin must be only 1% - should I be looking for another company to trade with? Suggestions?

waterloo yong 20:33 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Melb mpfx thx.. but it that mean the GBP will not be down 1.6000? .. cuz i was in short position for 1.6050.. now already lost for over 40 pipes..

Tokyo Eureka 19:57 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Happy New Year to all the Forex participants in the world!
Tokyo Forex market starts today!
Good luck to you all!

Melb mpfx 19:53 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
waterloo yong // Fwiw my system has following levels for Gbp/Usd.
Possible trading Range -
low - 1.6016
Pivot - 1.6079
High - 1.6141

gt

Houston mw 19:46 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Philly - you should be collecting interest for a long eur/usd position.

ny jc 19:40 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Philly brm 19:17 If own the currency with the higher interest rate than you should be getting points. On the other hand if you are long the lower interest rate curency than you will pay. Some firms will try and get away with taking advantage of you. Stay on top of it, and no matter what always complain about the rates. Tehy will try to pay you little and charge you alot. Good luck.

Philly brm 19:17 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Chicago Irish - thanks! I looked at the policy again and it calls it "rollover/interest" - I am longer term bullish on the Euro vs USD -this rollover/interest consideration would make it kind of expensive to hold the same position for several days. Am I looking at that correctly?

waterloo yong 18:50 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
how's GBP/USA for next week? still up? can anyone give me some comment about GBP? thanks so much

Melb RS 18:37 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Opening lvls
EUR 1.0428-31
GBP 1.6100-05
JPY 119.70-75
CHF 1.3976-81
CAD 1.5633-38
AUD 0.5673-76
NZD 0.5277-80

Chicago-Irish 17:13 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Philly brm:"Charges a fee" sounds wrong,the currencies all have interest rate differentials so if you are long a currency with a lower rate of interest that its contra then you would be pay the interest rate differential,of course the opposite is also true that you can earn the differential.

Philly brm 17:08 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Hi - seeking guidance... I trade with longer term perspective but the company I currently trade with charges a fee for holding a position more than 24 hours. Is this normal practice?

beirut jb 16:54 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Mtl JP 15:52 GMT
como perrie 11:35 GMT

Thank you and Hapeay and profitable year

HK Kevin 16:37 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Athens 16:21 GMT, wish you a healthy and profitable year in 2003.

LA Mel 16:32 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
best of luck athens...

beirut jb 16:29 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Athens 16:21 GMT

Thaks Athens and Happy new yar

Good Luck

spotforex NY 16:23 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
small Plane safely lands in frankfurt - incident over.

Athens 16:21 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Wishing all old friends here a Happy and Prosperous 2003, here are my market thoughts with some views for the medium term and tech levels for the short term. "See" you again sometime in the future, till then best of luck and, most of all, stay in good health, you and your families.

como perrie 16:05 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
so far, yes Mtl JP
:)
have you seen the Charlie Chaplin's Modern Times

take care

Mtl JP 15:52 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
perrie / in his Saturdays's speech, Gramlich says that .."our mandate tells us to stabilize employment and the prices of goods and services, not asset prices."...

In as much as Gramlich lays responsibility for the boom in asset prices on "productivity", I tend to agree that the bigger boom under development is the current (and unprecedented) mortgage debt growth due not to any "productivity", but market's addiction to increasing and cheap(er) money supply. Who has the supposed sole responsibility for that?

Is there a bubble? third quarter Total Mortgage Credit growth of $941 billion (annualized) was 88% of total non-finance/non-federal Credit growth, while averaging 82% over the first three quarters. This compares to 39% during 1997, 49% during 2000, and 63% during 2001

Seemingly no one cares anyway. Apparently it's not the FED's job to neither recognize nor do anything about one. That would leave you and me to care, would it not.

spotforex NY 15:43 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
small plane threatening to crash into the Euro building in Frankfert. Solo pilot.

melb th 14:55 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
como perrie 11:27 // Agree strongly about longer term (days) corellations in last paragraph. Short term anomalous behaviour is common over period of very roughly -24 to +24 hours related to say start of main usdx or eurusd movement. This may be due to limitation in availability and or mobility of speculative or market makers funds which have to cycle through the various markets. Despite or perhaps because of market thinness last thursday and friday was a classic instance. Anomalous behaviour of and between LH and PB's when looked at with gold and dow seem a very sensitive indicator to currency, which I have used for some time. Problem is you need to have a fair idea of what the commodities should be doing from fundamental as well as tech reasons.

hk revdax 13:35 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Perrie//Are you suggesting the market has a way to go higher? TIA

como perrie 11:35 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   

Biggest Bull Markets


The 1990sí bull market compares favorably when examined one-on-one against
other strong expansions in the Dow. Chart B plots the cumulative percentage
increase in the Dow from its previous trough for four noteworthy expansions.
This comparison shows that the 1990sí expansion (even including the decline in
2000) recorded a larger increase and rose for a longer period than occurred
during the other three major expansions.


CHART B - Bull Markets



Worst Bear Markets


What goes up, sometimes comes back down, which brings us to the subject of
bear markets. A bear market is usually defined as a decline of 15 to 20 percent
or more over a period of several months or longer. Chart C provides a comparison
of several periods with large stock market declines; it plots the cumulative
percentage decline in the Dow from its previous peak, showing that the downturn
from 1928 to a trough in 1932 was by far the most severe. The Dow fell about 80
percent over this period, which coincides roughly with a sharp decline in gross
domestic product that occurred in the early years of the Great Depression.
Moreover the Dow fell for four consecutive years, more than twice the length of
the next longest declines (1972 to 1974 and 1912 to 1914).


CHART C - Bear Markets



Like Stocks, Indexes also Differ


Chart D plots monthly levels of the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ,
showing their varied performance over the 12 months ending in March 2001. This
variation in performance mainly reflects differences in the stocks included in
each index. From its monthly peak in January 2000 to March 2001, the Dow (which
tracks 30 blue chip industrial companies) fell by more than 10 percent. The
broader S&P 500 fell by more than 20 percent from its August 2000 peak until
March 2001. (This index is more likely to closely reflect overall stock market
performance because it monitors the performance of a large group of firms from
many industries.)


While both the Dow and the S&P 500 include some high-tech stocks, the
NASDAQ is dominated by these stocks and, therefore, more closely reflects
conditions in the high-tech sector. During the rapid expansion of technology
firms late in the 1990s, the NASDAQ soared. However, by late 2000, the dot-com
expansion came to a jarring halt and the high-tech manufacturing sector began to
experience a slowdown in sales, revenues, and profits. As a consequence, the
tech-heavy NASDAQ fell much more sharply than the other two indexes, declining
by nearly 59 percent from March 2000 to March 2001.


CHART D -- Performance Varies



What Causes Bull and Bear Markets?


If I only knew! Letís take a quick look at the NASDAQ. A
thought-provoking article by Simon Kwan (2000) examined the tremendous run-up of
tech stocksí market value from 1995 to the spring of 2000. He compared
high-tech stocksí share of overall market valuation to the sectorsí share of
other key economic measures: assets, employment, and sales. Kwan found that
after the run-up, "Technology companies dominate in terms of market
capitalization, but not in terms of tangible assets, employment, and
sales."


Finally, a parting thought on the prospect of bull markets going bust.
Samuelson and Nordhaus (1998) quote Burton Malkielís work on the subject of
market "bubbles, panics, and the madness of crowds," to provide their
readers with perspective on stock market bubbles and crashes. Malkiel (1994)
noted, "Greed run amok has been an essential feature of every spectacular
boom in history."


como perrie 11:28 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Ben Bernanke

Philadelphia Fed conference, November 30, 2001:

.....(excerpt)..

In nicely worked out analyses, the first two papers today show that there is a

theoretical case for monetary policy to respond to the stock market, over and above the

extent implied by the marketís implications for inflation.

In fact, this result is true in the B-G model as well, as stock market bubbles lead

to excessive volatility in investment. The real question is whether, in practice, we have

sufficient confidence in our understanding of stock market behavior and its response to

monetary policy to improve over an inflation-targeting rule. I am very skeptical that we

do (or the Fed does).

como perrie 11:27 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Some thoughts about market correlations: correlation table (link).

By looking at the U.S dollar index (DX) contracts and against the Standard & Poors (SP) (with readings of +10) as to the Dow Jones ones (DJ) (with readings +26), you will notice that the DJ is more sensible to dollar opposite trends than the SP. In addition, we can say that asymmetric readings in the equity futures contracts in general and against the USD index, when in the upper/lower 60s to 70s seemingly having a near to complete satisfaction of opposite developing trends, at present time. If we check further, to select the best indicators that are influencing the USD index, we see the yen and the dollar index correlation that shows +69, while Gbp, Euro and the Swiss Franc have readings all close in the upper 90s, so crosses here have lower volatility and so mainly a sideways motion.

So, by working out the main risks profiles of our basic p-folio strategy, we see readings of the Euro contracts against the SP and Dow showing an opposite trend correlation: what means Stocks down trends are Euro up trends well correlated, yet the British pound as the Swiss franc are far better on work against stocks, always given today readings.

However, the best opposite correlation to the stock market we can find is on interest rates or financial instruments, and so in the place of the ED (euro dollar spread) and in the long term 10 years treasury notes (TY). Then on Gold (GC) and surprise, even on frozen pork bellies (PB), lean hogs (LH) and soybeans (SM) we can find good and safe equity risks spreaders.

october 22, 2001
Igor Waltritsch

como perrie 11:24 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Hi all

how are you doing in this new year....hope everything will be better on this crazy world ...TEST

Hobart wdt 11:10 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
testing

Memphis 07:19 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
HK

thanks for the reply. Hopefully if I decide to start trading I will have enough lucky trades mixed in with my learning experiances so I can stay afloat. What do you think of the online companies like Gain Capital?

Chris

singapore 06:24 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Hi all what happened to the messages from the 4th jan.. on got five here

mr USA 05:25 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Geneva Oliver & jerusalem serge, hold on to your dollar longs & you will be smiling by Friday.

hk revdax 04:46 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Memphis//Your 22:20 post. I am sure most fx traders lose money trading for themselves or companies. The only way to learn about trading fx is a combination of theories and practices. I am sure you know what theories mean but practices to me mean losing enough money either to stop or to win.

Philly brm 03:27 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
test

hk revdax 02:43 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Oliver//Your 16:13 post. My reply to Serge also applies to your situation....imvho.

hk revdax 02:41 GMT January 5, 2003 Reply   
Serge//I don't have much to contribute to your current situation but since you don't use stop loss I would suggest you do the following:
(1)Allow your short Euro/$ to last for an entire day next Monday..
(2)On next Tuesday, place a stop loss at the Hi of next Monday and allow the short Euro position to trend into Wednesday and then you take it off ...

 




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