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Forex Forum Archive for 01/06/2003

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Melb RS 23:59 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Few jap exporters are pulling their offers here FYG

Global-View 23:57 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Queens. Just add NY next to it "Queens NY Nordic". I know where you are from but others may see Queens as a name. If you have a problem, email us. We are very responsive.

Queens Nordic 23:51 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
I have the "Queens" in the front , you want me to change the "Nordic" to NY?
If so , I must protest , Boss....

Global-View 23:44 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Queens. Reminder about your location.

Queens Nordic 23:40 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Buy GbpUsd?
What can go wrong?!

Tallinn viies 23:34 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
dollar outlook from free MMS web page:
Last week's ISM related dollar relief rally turned out to be relatively short lived, the greenback still not out of the woods as far as most are concerned. While EUR-USD was unable to break through to the 1.05 handle, pullbacks have been shallow to say the least. We expect the dollar overall to continue to be sold into anything resembling a rally. This applies to USD-JPY as well, despite the horrible fundamentals in Japan. A concerted attempt by the market is likely to test the MoF/BoJ's resolve on actual intervention in the coming weeks. Geopolitical uncertainty will continue to pressure the USD, at least through the end of January. Once the shooting starts in the Gulf though, all bets are off. With war already priced in, perhaps a sell the rumor, but the fact will prevail for the greenback. Meanwhile, the next data focus in the New Year will be on the key US employment report for December due next week.

Ldn 23:31 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
EUR/USD likely to stick to relatively narrow 1.0440-1.0480 range in Asia, but poised for retest of 1.0460 resistance and will "almost certainly" break it depending on cross-trade; focus on whether USD/JPY succumbs to pressure and falls back beneath 119.00, Japan city bank traders say. Iraq war fears supporting EUR/USD even after overnight rise in U.S. stocks.
AP

hk ab 23:21 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
viies, I will join you at the lower zone if the dive is not too sharp.

hk ab 23:08 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
viies, how's your long finally?
As said last night, I noted some small fishes swimming to your side.

Tallinn viies 23:05 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
hei there,
although euro didnt close over 1,0450,
I still think it is good place to add to long position.
doubled my euro long at 1,0448.
stop and reverse at 1,0409.
planning to buy more at 1,0410-20 area if things allow that.

Sydney S. 22:13 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Does anyone know the where abouts of Qindex lately... he is missed on the site... hope he is OK

Houston TDR 21:45 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
The capital Q cleared it up nicely. ;-)

nyc 21:43 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Funding Fears
Fears of dollar weakness in 2003 likely caused foreign investors to already begin pulling back in late 2002, resulting in an unusually steep decline in the dollar in December, some analysts believe. In December the currency fell 5.1% and 6.8% versus the euro and the Swiss franc, respectively. Fears that the U.S. will be increasingly challenged to fund its current account deficit through portfolio inflows - foreign direct investment contracted sharply a couple of years ago - is a primary reason for the overriding bearish sentiment facing the dollar in 2003. On top of this, the low level of interest rates in the U.S. compared to many global alternatives has removed another peg of attraction for those considering U.S. fixed-income purchases. Many investors "don't think the rate of return in the U.S. will match or exceed the rates available in other countries," said Putnam's Upadhyaya. "Even if they were the same, why take unnecessary dollar risk which can be avoided by staying in domestic markets?" Dow

nyc 21:35 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Bush: U.S. Has No Intention Of Invading North Korea
North Korea Needs To Honor Commitments It Has Made
Bush: U.S. Has No Intention Of Invading North Korea
Bush Calls Taxes On Dividends "Unfair"
Bush: Key To Controlling Deficits Is Limiting Spending
dj

Queens Nordic 21:31 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Sure thing , boss.

Global-View 21:24 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Queens. Is that a location? If so, please define it better as it looks like a name. e.g. Queens, NY

quuens nordic 21:10 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
now is a good time to buy euroUSD , it's on its lower average.
Trade at your own risk.

Gen dk 21:07 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

SYD 21:03 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
[Dow Jones] AUD/USD to trade 0.5740-80 after surging to 0.5777 7-month high from near 0.5700 yesterday, says Macquarie Bank strategist Jo Masters. Technical resistance at 0.5785, 0.5796 high of last year, hard to break. Longer-term to probe 0.6000 as USD continues to soften. AUD/USD helped overnight by softer USD, outperformed crosses in catch-up after investors returned from holidays. Also benefitting from strength in gold, base metals, strong domestic retail trade data, she says

waterloo yong 21:01 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
any view for Eur? up or down..? thx

quuens nordic 20:55 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
i think whats behind sterling's decline is the dropping of retail sales for the first time in 3 years , it's 2/3 of the economy.

Gen dk 20:48 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

van Gecko 20:46 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Buenos Aires DB.. after 2+ weeks of Christmas rise, her Highness GBP & her Conti cousins seems to had meet some stiff resistances from returning usd bulls trying to work off their holiday fats here.. expect more SOB'ers infront of 1.6135 to join this 'Tadpole Reversal' from here to resume her Majesty's interrupted 'Merry Go South' journey..



nyc 20:46 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
MARKET TALK: A Bigger U.S. Current Account Gap ... Nov. and Dec. trade data will be a "leading indicator" pointing to a new record U.S. current account deficit of near 6% of GDP, says Michael Woolfolk at Bank of New York. If investors weren't concerned about it at 5% of GDP, "The 6% (level) will raise some eyebrows," he says. That's a reason for his end-2003 EUR/USD forecast of $1.17.
Goldman Sachs' Bill Dudley says easier financial conditions could occur via an equity market recovery or a weaker dollar, saying "the Bush Administration could help matters along by shifting away from the so-called 'strong dollar' policy." This was by way of saying Goldman would be more optimistic about economic outlook with more fiscal stimulus, easier financial conditions, and favorable shocks
DJ/AP

Gold Coast L. 20:41 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
-FOREX-Dollar given small reprieve by strong US stocks
"No investor is going to want to be overly long dollars
heading into the end of this month given the Blix report to the
U.N. Security Council and Bush's State of the Union Address
because there is just too much at stake and the possibility of
war soon thereafter," said Rebecca Patterson, currency
strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase.

nyc 20:34 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
U.S. House Democrats outlined a $136 bln stimulus plan, countering the President's plan to be unveiled tomorrow, which is now expected to total some $600 bln over 10-years. The Democrats" plan is front loaded and includes a $300 tax rebate for wage earners, an extension of unemployment benefits, one-time grants to states, along with tax breaks for business's purchases of new computers and other equipment. While this plan won't succeed given Republican control of Congress, it will serve a a source of debate and compromise in upcoming negotiations
rts.

Buenos Aires DB 20:23 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
To Van Gecko: Hello, Sir...which are your expectations on GBP for the coming European session ? Thanks & GT.

van Gecko 20:03 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Gaza Ibiza.. sorry to hear about your euro bull possies.. some mean Geeser bear seems to be exerting pressure on the Goose for the 1.5500's again ?

NYC YIPPEE 19:56 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Charlie just keeping order....

NYC YIPPEE 19:56 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
ny mark
That was not the issue. If a currency takes 1 minute, 1 day or 1 year to "trend".

Tallinn viies 19:52 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
nice support at 1,0450-60 area on the euro
planning to add to my long euro position if NYC close (2 hours to go) over 1,0450
trailing reverse order at the moment 1,0409!

Memphis Charles 19:46 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Sheesh Yippee, your book must be underwater...

Gen dk 19:43 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

ny mark 19:42 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Yes YIPPEE ,that is a given, but ozzie and kiwi during ny hours
stands around for hours more than the other pairs, wouldnt you say

Gaza Ibiza 19:41 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Van Gecko my stoooopy poopy knocked me out of the last nice r/r euro long..now thinking sushi maki taki is the one to make the move...what say you of the divine green goose.? This market is so nervous to me..or is it just my new year fever.

NYC YIPPEE 19:40 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
ny mark 19:34 GMT January 6, 2003
All currencies trend mate.

quuens nordic 19:38 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Ny mark, my you are a god amongst men.
See Yippie , I am not a paranoid hyperactive druggie.
Shame on you.

van Gecko 19:35 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Manchester Daniel.. depending on your risk & trade preferences, good interim profits can be had by selling the 1st rally at/near some major resist level..
Houston PM 17:52.. sorry, i am not able to decipher the effectivness of a 20 pip r/s differential.. one must make allowances for pip noises & margin of errors in this grey biz.. that said, eur/gbp .6550/20 is within a major multi-year r/s band..
gl..
hello Tony.. hope your fine today ?

ny mark 19:34 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
quuens- i believe what u r tring to surmise, is why ozzie and kiwi do not trade back and forth like the other majors.
The reason being is that it is true , they are trend currencies , and they dont back and fill like the other ccys, also , ny market is not liquified in those pairs, they basically just execute custy odas , stops and limits.

quuens nordic 19:31 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
The 25 to 41 to 31 numbers are hypothetical , Mr. starbucks ex-drug dealer.
Ok, EurJpy is the perfect example of what I am referring to.
Compare that to how NzdUsd has performed since the start of this week.

barcelona tony 19:26 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
hi Raden, do you have Yahoo Messenger?

NYC YIPPEE 19:23 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
quuens nordic 19:20 GMT January 6, 2003
I don't know what information you have looked at to make that conclusion but I would suggest 1) Drinking less cofee 2) Stop smoking crack

Gen dk 19:23 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

quuens nordic 19:20 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Volatility!!
You know , one minute its worth 25 and the next hour its worth 41 then it hits a resistance level and falls to 31.
Ozzy does not do that.

Can't make it any clearer.

NYC YIPPEE 19:15 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
quuens nordic 19:07 GMT January 6, 2003
?

Gen dk 19:07 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

quuens nordic 19:07 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Um , take EurUsd it bounces off resistance & support levels while Ozzy/Kiwi usually has a nice trend to it. I think the word is volatility.

Chatham RD 19:02 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
quuenns Nordic

Dont realy understand your wuestion as the AUD and NZD do fluctuate like other currencies, you would find it difficult to afind a currency that hamove more than NZD over the past few months

Stockholm ZA 18:47 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Bne Cad 02:50 GMT --- Hope you did make your decission at the first level.. happy trades

Montreal 18:34 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   

Does anyone see the USD/CAD a good buy at this point?

quuens nordic 18:28 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Question:
Was the ozzy/kiwi currencies always so stable? I mean, if they were to no longer have that attractive interest rate will they fluctuate like the normal pairs?

thnx.

JHB Freejack 18:22 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Ah, thanks Helsinki...

JHB Freejack 18:21 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Hi! Has the EUR, CHF, and JPY rallies completely lost steam, or could we see 1.5010 in the next day or so?

Ciao!

helsinki iw 18:19 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
FWIW- Euro acting pretty strong in face of rallying equities, and the
retracement has been very weak. Hourlies have unwound their overstret-
ched status, so expect attempt at topside to materialise before New
York close. Bollinger midpoint coming in at 1,0450 and support at
1,0430/40 have not been even tested. Favour run-up towards mid-1,05s
before potential top is in.

Fort Lauderdale MC 18:16 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Houston, thanks. I just didn't see it as much of a level other than short term but I saw a few different people mention it and I was just curious.

Houston PM 18:10 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
MC...it was the prior ranges secondary support level...now it may act as resistance...if it does not hold, the next "old" support level to test is around the 43/50 area...so risk above 50 is the safe play here...FWIW...good trades

Bel Air KK 18:09 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
119.20 = the hourly resistance for today

Fort Lauderdale MC 18:06 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Bel Air KK, where are you getting the 119.20 level from? Is it an old resistance point? TIA

Bel Air KK 17:59 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Usd/Yen approaching resistance at 119.20. Might be a good short trade sell at this level. Stop @ 50, target 118.60/70.

GL & GT

Houston PM 17:52 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Gecko...how likely is the .618 level at .6520 to hold? If broken, I assume we may see another test of .6550...all opinions welcome here...I'm trying to determine my risk on a short EUR/USD position I am holding..TIA:)

Manchester Daniel 17:49 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Van Gecko - once again, many thanks for your "poetic" reply - never one for straight sentences are you?? Lots of fun "interpreting" your hidden messages.

I have taken a short EURO/$ position at 1.0478 about 20 minutes ago. Will play this with very tight stop (above 1.0505 high) targeting 1.0250 area (38% of entire upleg from .9860).

Also holding my GBP short from 1.6152 with target of 1.6000 (61% of 2day upleg), but would re-enter short on break of 1.6000 for 1.5900 area (matching Thursday low)

I do not play AUD very much - what a move for the "sleeper" - is it worth a short at current level for a 50 pip retrace??

Gen dk 17:47 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 17:33 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
eur/chf and eur/gbp going the same direction.... a bit odd.

van Gecko 17:27 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
ab & Daniel.. Euro & GBP had always danced to the same tune with each other with lead/lag steps in a macro same usdx reciprocal direction & at times behind the Eur/Gbp lead cross..
FYI
"van Gecko 16:56 GMT January 2, 2003
Ibiza.. the depth of the forecoming retracement/trend reversal will be played out with lead/lag steps between eur/usd, gbp/usd, eur/gbp & the usdx Index..
eur/gbp .6550 & usdx 102/100 are major r/s levels.."


INA mr.co'z 17:19 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Ok. Thx a lot 4 ur information HK n GoangZhou. See U

hk ab 17:08 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
gecko// will eur follow that gbp for this Tadpole?

Tokyo Jon 17:07 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
hk ab, thanks, it just couldnt reach my target so closed out at 65, had a buy signal come through and thought I would take the profit and get some sleep. Also closed my usdchf position.
Goodnight everyone

Manchester Daniel 17:05 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Van Gecko - many thanks for your reply.

I know from some of your previous posts you refer to EURO/GBP as "guide dog" for Euro/$.

IMO, EURO/GBP very overdone - todays rally is a 50% retrace from 6550-6468 downleg - I am considering a short on this pair, as a "head start" to shorting Euro/$.

Your opinion please - many thanks

Guangzhou Joewoo 17:03 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
INA mr.co'z //I think the gas will be filled.The Japanese government won't allow the price down below 118.0 .If the price back to 119.60 ,it might is a chance to buy some JPY. right?

hk ab 16:56 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Jon// That yen is so stubborn. Good call today!!!

INA mr.co'z 16:52 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
show hourly chart usd/jpy have a gap 119.50. that can rebound? please any comment?

Houston PM 16:51 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Raden...thanks again...I have a question, but will e-mail later...already a very profitable day...currently short EUR, looking for 1.0420...ciao:))

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 16:47 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
To all my best friends on GV
Sorry.. I am off now, thanks very much from you today and I wish good trades for you today.
Bye....

van Gecko 16:45 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Manchester Daniel 16:10.. a 'Tadpole Reversal' from a failed 'Tadpole Break-out' at/near some major historical resist band are fairly reliable top-out/advance turning point indications..
usually, these Tadpole Reversal will have a more pronounced effect on the market after the bulls had a a chance to digest the immenient reversal kinetics..
imo the market could see some 'geopolitical/christmas funnymental' induced $bears cry Uncle in unision with Saddam along with the dawn of a new year..


hk ab 16:43 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Raden I think this aussie still have some mins. to be held up by aud/jpy.... until the target of this pair is reached!

Manchester Daniel 16:40 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
ny mpo - nice to know I am not the only one suffering. I am originally from The Bronx - even had the pleasure of watching The Ginats when they had Tarkenton and played at Yankee Stadium.

I have truly NEVER seen a team choke that badly.

Back to FX - thinking of adding to my short GBP/$ by going short Euro/$ at current level (1.0473) - euro/gbp has had a good day today, but, personally, I think this pair is very overdone.

As I write Euro down 10 pips - GO GBP SOUTH - Van Gecko - the Queen is heading south, as per your words of wisdom

hk ab 16:39 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
the Queen is the indicator for the WHOLE day!

Bne Cad 16:31 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
All quiet now as the Queen begins Van Gecko's double backward twist dive for the Olympic Gold. (She's only a few pips away from being tomorrow's star in the Daily).

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 16:30 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
My friends..
Sorry USD/CHF not 1.3945 but 1.3975 and AUD/USD better exit now for long position.thanks

ny mpo 16:24 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
If the euro gets down to 1.0418 swissy should go higher than 1.3945
dont ya think?

NC JJM 16:24 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
ny mpo>>>> right there with ya pal......terrible loss....cheers

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 16:20 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Eur/USD will down for get 1.0418
USD/CHF will go up for 1.3928 or 1.3945
USD/JPY will up for 119.00 or 119.17
AUD/USD still will go up for 0.5796.
thanks

hk ab 16:19 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
this aussie revenges all the way.... some smart money did long on Fri. NY close and still earns more than 100 pips profit!

ny mpo 16:15 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Radan
You see anything interesting with doll / swiss tia

ny mpo 16:15 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Manchester Daniel
I have been a GIANT fan for 35 years - had season tickets for 12 years
I am very very sad today- what a disgrace

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 16:13 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
My friends..
GBP/USD have given sell signal for get 1.6046 (corection type).thanks

Manchester Daniel 16:11 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
UK - JB - with you all the way on CABLE - please see my comments below - my target is 1.5950, but could we see even lower??

barcelona tony 16:10 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Hi all (specially my admired Van Gecko (San???)). Van Gecko, I've just send you a request for Messnger exchange :-)) (if you want XDDD) HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!!!

Manchester Daniel 16:10 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Van Gecko - appreciate your comments regarding Her Majesty going South - I myself am short from 1.6054 and looking to see a drop back to 1.5950 area.

However, you seem to give impression that she could dive much more.
Am I correct to understand that you expect GBP to make a much more significant re-trace.

I have been an occassional contributor to forum (but always read the comments) - I will try to be more of a contributor as I suppose it is not fair to only read.

To any football fan from New York - even more extraordinary than dollar's fall - can someone please explain how my football team (GIANTS) could possibly blow a 24 point lead???? I am very sad today - although living in UK I still love my AMERICAN football. GLGT to all

Toronto Sparker 16:08 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate ..Gecko-dude.. happy new year back at ya.. :))))

UK J.B. 16:06 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
u heard it here first on cable

Bne Cad 16:05 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
SAM cable here. Cable not too well bid, view 160.50 from here. If close below 161, then DLY may make shooting star with risk to 159.50
Good night all

Gen dk 15:55 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Tallinn viies 15:54 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
oh G, cant goooo
94 bid, new high!
still selling out over 1,05

Tallinn viies 15:52 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
do u see how US stocks are flying higher?
euro is still stongly bid,
this shows how terribly someone needs to buy,
technically picture turns much more bullish if todays close over 1,0420.
talk to u later,
got to run now to my badminton training!
cu

Hamilton sate babie 15:49 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
eur/usd, looks ready for take-off.

Gen dk 15:49 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bel Air KK 15:43 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
NYC SM 15:30 GMT January 6, 2003

The Usd is being held down across the board by geopolitical concerns still, though US economic data have not been bad at all (relatively speaking, especially when compared to EZ and Japan). Today, there were very good forcasts made by BofA regarding US Equities and Economy in general. I personally believe the USD pessimism is abit overdone and expect I am becoming more and more a USD bull for next few months ahead.

That being said, the Usd/Yen remains in range trading 118.30 - 119.80. Regarding immediate levels, there has been buyinh around 118.60, but may not be too strong and selling @ 118.90/00. The key levels for USD to break through are: 119.65 and then 120.30. On the downside, a break below 118.30 and 117.95 can get ugly for USD, but MOF/BOJ may have to step in if this occurs.

Good luck and good trade.

Bne Cad 15:42 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
have not seen the Aussie girl this frisky for a very long time.
Van gecko: Thanks!

van Gecko 15:36 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
howdy Bne Cad 15:25.. her Majesty is painting a nice 'Daily Tadpole Reversal' here.. breach of the 1.6100/1.6080 Tadpole bottom could see her Highness resuming her 'Merry Go South' slide..


NYC SM 15:30 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
DOES ANYONE HAVE A TAKE ON $/YEN, i AM LONG @ 118.81......

HK Kevin 15:30 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Bne Cad 15:08 GMT, when the 20ma of a ccy pair turns to the downside and the price trade slightly below the 20 and 50 ma lines. The price normally rebounds to retest 20ma and even 50 ma before diving further low. It provide a better level to short again and is more reliable in the 4&8 hr charts. Of course, the difficulty is to determine when will the rebound happen.

Pecs Andras 15:26 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
US stocks are well in the green, while EU stock are all down, but USD is still being smashed.

Bne Cad 15:25 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Van Gecko: Still expecting the Queen to do her olympic double twist dive? :)

Pecs Andras 15:23 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Economic data seem to be pretty unimportant these days. US has been posting much better data recently, and what we can expect from the EZ is bad and worse, to say the least in January, and EUR is still strongly bid. I wonder how long....

hk ab 15:20 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
gecko very much appreciated.

van Gecko 15:18 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
morning ab 14:33.. you may want to try your Goosy betting luck with my Butterfly PipBID flying tactics here & let the Goose lead you to up to the sky or down to earth.. BOS 1.5660 & SOS 1.5590
have a nice flight..

ny mark 15:17 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
confusing aint it ?

Sofia Red 15:13 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
ny mpo// 54.7 v 55.5 exp FYG. GL

UK J.B. 15:11 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Yes dollar to strengthen to many longs around key res. at current levels dow looking ok

Pecs Andras 15:08 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Can any of you guys see any direction now in the majors?

Bne Cad 15:08 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
kevin: CAD seems too bullish imho. 1.5550 an easy target. Then 1.5450

ny mpo 15:07 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Thanks gang

hk ab 15:06 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
bearish trap. first an impulsive dive for kicking sl.... now ... god knows.

Portsmut amateur 15:06 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
ISM 54.7

Pecs Andras 15:05 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
54.7

ny mpo 15:02 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
What was number pls tia

ny mpo 15:02 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
What was number pls tia

HK Kevin 15:00 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Bne Cad, do you think 1.5581, the low of DEC 27 would hold and provide a short term 80-100 pips rebound for beter level to short? I am thinking to short near 20 ma in the 4-hr and 8-hr chart.

hk ab 14:55 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
cad// Best wishes!!!

Bne Cad 14:55 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Kevin: Hi! no need to wait for 1.5637-50 geese already on their way South.

HK Kevin 14:48 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Indonesia solo Raden Mas 14:39, many thanks for your prompt reply. Not much trades for today except small long EUR/GBP from 6472 this Asian morning and is watch USD/CAD closely.

BULGARIA IKO 14:47 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
SELL EURUSD IN 1.0475/85-tg 1.0380/30-ISM 61.00-good

Houston PM 14:42 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Raden...thanks again, friend :)

Bne Cad 14:42 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
ab: Well i certaiinly hope so...when i got the brokers bill i thought it was his phone number.

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 14:39 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
HK-Kevin & Houston PM
I think Eur/USD not yet give sell signal..for now good level for buy..
GBP/USD not yet give signal sell and still holding scenario for 1.6210
thanks

Gen dk 14:38 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 14:34 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 14:33 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
bne cad// looks like after the aud, the next is the geese!!!!
Gecko, would like to listen to your view on dlr/cad.

Tallinn viies 14:33 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
hk ab 14:21 - not yet, if my take profit over 1,05 is not done,
Im not buying more before 20/30 area.
but we will see very soon, if things turn better

helsinki iw 14:31 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Portsmut- Not sure we see it there, suspect first support at 1,0430/40
might hold already.

Portsmut amateur 14:28 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
helsinki iw Hi mate Don't you think that better buy level is 1.0425?

Houston PM 14:27 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Raden...if you are still there...do you see much more retrace on GBP or EUR...they look to be good buys at these levels. Thanks.

HK Kevin 14:27 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Indonesia solo Raden Mas 12:13, are you still holding the scenario that Cable's next t/p at 1.6210?

helsinki iw 14:23 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
FWIW- Market needs to unwind overbought status on the hourlies to
gather enough energy to break above 1,0500. Could well be that alrea-dy 1,0430/40 will hold it for the next run. If below there, support
also at 1,0390/00. Looking to buy dips. All IMHO.

SYD 14:22 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Spot gold earlier US $356.25 highs are followed by a partial retracement lower, but $352.00 offers support ahead of key chart support at $350.50. On the upside above $356.25, next chart resistances are $360.00 (psychological) and $363.95 at the March-1997 chart resistance

hk ab 14:21 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
viies look like u r tempted to buy higher.

Bne Cad 14:16 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
BAM dol/Yen, just got a nice flag for 119.50 GL

UK J.B. 14:04 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Short cable now good risk reward.
Sfr/yen does look a good sell technically SNB wont let CHF strengthen to much from here so eur/chf look to buy on dips also the Yen leg would concern me though as downside limited from here in doll/yen

Bne Cad 13:53 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Kevin: Thanks! I was hoping toshort again at 1.5650 but will be content with 1.5637 instead. Good Trades!

Hyderabad Dusant 13:50 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Its my strong feeling that CHF:JPY can be shorted here, but I do not have any economic data to corelate to to back upmy techs.

hk ab 13:47 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
thanks bne

Hyderabad Dusant 13:46 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 13:33 GMT
Ok... looking up Swiss Stats now

HK Kevin 13:43 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Hi Bne Cad 13:12 GMT. Does this system call K10. Congraulation on your USD/CAD trade. I think we will get higher level to short again today.
Tallinn viies, you are right on Fri. 1.0360 is a critical level on EUR. Hats off to you long EUR position.

London Joe 13:43 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Bne Cad If they intervene it will help Dollar recover against everything and be good for shorting dollar again, so roll on the clowns..

Bne Cad 13:41 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
ab: well the monthly candlestick is a yen bull 'fright night' to 115. Short term back to 119 and then backdown to 118.40 (now reverse all that).

Calcutta Vikram 13:33 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Dusant....have asked Jay
As for possible sources, you might want to try the links/ resources that GV provides. Cheers

Bahrain MrLovarman 13:32 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Where do you see the CHF going against the USD?

Tokyo Jon 13:31 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Sofia Alex, I to had the same levels on friday morning but cancelled my order at 1.0380. I thought the market was trying to correct lower first. I hope Chicago-Irish stayed with the call that I had made, he would be well delighted now.

Hyderabad Dusant 13:28 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 13:20
No hassle at all, just take the trouble of contacting me. And no gallows please. BTW, do you know of a source where I can collect some data to co-relate with CHF?

Sofia Alex 13:26 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Tokyo Jon 13:20 GMT , well done mate.Keep up with the good work, Personally myself got a buy signal on friday on Eur$ at 4.00 am GMT buy at 1.0373 so far no sell signal on 1hr charts.Good work buddy

Bne Cad 13:22 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Mark: Are you saying that we have seen the high for cable today, and if so, what is your rationalfor selling? TIA

Tokyo Jon 13:20 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
prague mark 13:03, Thankyou for your kind words, Just let me recap todays efforts from my behalf,

Tokyo Jon 09:29 I recieved an add to the short on USDJPY at 119.05
Tokyo Jon 01:42 Get prepared for another round to sell USD.
Tokyo Jon 01:23 I recieved a sell signal on USDCHF and USDJPY an hour ago at 1.3959 and 119.74
Tokyo Jon 00:32 EURUSD [1.0416], Buy above 1.0440, Target 1.0490

Well I made money today, I dont really care about your trading efforts.

Calcutta Vikram 13:20 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Dusant....please excuse the gallows humour, but I'd almost die to see your study :-)

hk ab 13:19 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
bne cad// what does it "telling" you now on yen then?

FW CS 13:19 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Planning to buy another Euro 4 pips above the 12/31 fractal high (1.504). A breach of that would result in a fractal sell failure and could produce a nice move up. I am guessing a lot of stops up there. Especially after the 15 day mid-Bollinger test held on the downside (1/3 low)

Hyderabad Dusant 13:19 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Can anyone please help me with what factors effect the CHF? Something like the US economic figures effecting the UD$!! TIA

Singapore WN 13:18 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Tokyo Jon 13:02 - Hello mate , keeping well I hope ...
When can we talk I am on the other toy...GL and GT

Gen dk 13:15 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Tallinn viies 13:14 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
new high 1,0493 bid

planning to sell my long at 1,0503,
let see.
hope to buy them back at lower level (approx at 1,0455),
or higher if close high enough

London Joe 13:13 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Bne Cad that sounds good to me
a little how I have been trading this year too

Hyderabad Dusant 13:12 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 13:07 GMT
Ask for my email add from Jay and I will mail an interesting study. Just something I put together of intra currencies. If it helps not to kill yourself ( :-)) then I'll be only too willing to share it with you. That's my smile again :-)

Tokyo Jon 13:12 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Bel Air KK, I do agree with you there, As I do not have any data from my mech system at this time, I was only able to establish the buy level. My views towards this pair are centered around 1.6280 to 1.6300, reaching here will be a great task but may be seen towards the mid of this week.

Bne Cad 13:12 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
I just found a great system for trading the Yen...every direction I think it is going to go, i just trade the reverse. Its simple but brillant! (lol)

Calcutta Vikram 13:07 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
H'bad Dusant...Happy New Year to you too.
Yes, I am agreeable for lower levels in $-Yen over a 1-3 month time frame, but, as always, its the PATH taken which kills me. Perceive Support in the 118.30-117.80 region for the while. Cheers

prague mark 13:03 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Tokyo Jon 12:52 GMT
either u have never traded cable before or u are just illiterate
sell at mkt stop - todays hight, target 1,6060

Calcutta Vikram 13:03 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
London 12.52....if I am not mistaken, ABN Amro were forecasting 0.82 at the beginning of 2002, then 0.96 around June-July. Please note ** if I am not mistken **
I may be guilty of blasphemy, but bank research reports are wont to change their forecasts about 3-6 months late, something akin to bolting the stable door after the horse.

Tokyo Jon 13:02 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Singapore WN, How the censored are you mate, havent been able to catch up latley. USDJPY is safe from the japs at the 118.40 levels, itis here where we must pay attention, if the dam breaks and the mud slides then the boys in black (the japs) will have to push this pair upto 122 atleast to make any decent impact, anything else is just giving us a taller building to jump from.

Hyderabad Dusant 13:00 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
To all my forum friends, Vikram, JOM, DrQ, Dubai, Cennai KK and all others, --- here's a super 2003 wish.
My tech does not support the buying of $:Y as these levels also. The downward 5th has still not completed. The earlier support around 120 had been tested several times, and now seems to have a solid resistance. Does not prevent scapling a few pips upwards, but as Confucious said, the trend is ur friend, look for a down trend.
My VHO.

hk ab 12:59 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
bc// do you have any new year note for us? THANKS!!!!

Bel Air KK 12:59 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Tokyo Jon 12:52 GMT January 6, 2003

Please don't take this in the wrong way, but why would one want to make a trade if no target is defined. The stop is very tight, but with no target defined, you might as well have blinders on.

amman 12:56 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Tokyo Jon 12:52 GMT January 6, 2003
hi pls what system do you use to generate such signal ? based on what

Tokyo Jon 12:52 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
GBPUSD, Buy signal generated at 1.6145, Stop 1.6110, Target not defined
Good luck all and good trades

London 12:52 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
ABN Amro forecasts a slide in the dollar of between 10 and 15% this yr on a trade-weighted basis. This should allow the euro to hit USD1.10 but bk looks for a slide to 0.95 first. Bk says any decline will be a dollar-weakness story as EMU econ remains sluggish, policy making 'poor'. Adds a quick victory in Iraq could spur both USD and US stocks

helsinki iw 12:50 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
FWIW- Looks like we need some consolidation at least if not pullback
here, so sold half longs and tightened stops on the rest.

Bne Cad 12:42 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
ab: Hi! I took profit at 156.30 but view (as artofyen said this morning) 1.5550 from here. My target is still 1.5450

van Gecko 12:36 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
RSA abk.. pigs can & do fly in this biz! i had seen many piglets fly up then disapeared out of sight..!

hk ab 12:35 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
bne cad how are you? r u trading any cad now?

Bne Cad 12:25 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Raden mas: Thankyou very much! :)

hk ab 12:24 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
viies remember your small fish theory, I just saw some small fish swimming to your sides. and poor that have missed the golden chance this morning.

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 12:24 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
For AUD/USD traders..
AUD/USD give buy signal for get 0.5796. thanks

Tallinn viies 12:16 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
NYC traders seems to start their day with a stop hunt.

RSA abk 12:14 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
lol Gecko, yeah right, and then again, pigs might start flying too.. -)) GL GT

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 12:13 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Hi, my friends...
GBP/USD seem change target high not at 1.6180 that I suggest before. but 1.6210. thanks

NZ 12:11 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Haha yep I know mate... I was a little confused by van Geckos comment myself

van Gecko 12:11 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
RSA abk.. why not? those inscrutable Sans are vely un-predicatble.. it's always within their option to do the un-thinkable opposites, especially when the whole Fx world thinks they had everything figured out.. ;)

RSA abk 12:09 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
NZ, that wasn`t a ..er.. very serious question mate..look at the smiley face after my question..

Uae oil man 12:07 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
A gentle push doesn't destabilize the sumo fighters!

NZ 12:04 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
RSA abk: Of course not!

tpe jenn 12:00 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Raden Mas 11:48
i will cantact Jay again, thanks

RSA abk 12:00 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Singapore, WN, thanks mate.

Gecko, u mean the BOJ might even intervene to further strenghten the yen?? :-))

van Gecko 11:55 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
halo my Oily friend..;) how about a reverse correlation up at the 140's when Euro flys up to your 1.26 ?
RSA abk.. it'll depend on the direction of the intervention..



Calcutta V 11:53 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
No, sorry.....that doesn't look like a very good trade

Rivonia PipPirate 11:52 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Toronto Sparker, Merry new profits to you. I hope the Indian Sari dress that you got for Chrismas fits and has deep pockets.

Singapore WN 11:50 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
RSA abk 11:43 - Watch the EUR/JPY cross for any clues. You must remember this market is looking for any excuse to sell USD so intervention here will be short lived and will not change the trend.
IMVHO...GL and GT

Calcutta Vikram 11:50 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
$-Yen....Possibly 118.30 might be worth buying with SL at 117.80 and TP at 119.30?

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 11:48 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Tpe jenn
About the e-mail, you must ask this forum leader Mr.Jay Meisler.Please contact him.thanks

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 11:46 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Hai my friends..
USD/JPY have target low at 118.60, and now for get 118.45.thanks

van Gecko 11:44 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
yo Sparker! happy new year!
beneath all those bold & exciting words, i am sure our friend from Tallin always meant well.. ;))

RSA abk 11:43 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Viies, Gecko, in the case of intervention by BOJ, what effect will this have on other currencies, if any, in particular on $/CHF and $/Euro?? TIA

Singapore WN 11:38 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Any sign of our Japanese friends yet or do we trade lower still looking for them...

UAE Oil man 11:37 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Halo gecko!

Any views on the friendly yen-san?
+_

Toronto Sparker 11:35 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
van Gecko 11:27 ..ya not doing well?..LOL.. ;))))

Tallinn viies 11:34 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
u know more than I do that u dont need help!

van Gecko 11:27 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
viies.. thank you for your help.. ;)

UK J.B. 11:22 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Just one final push and i feel that is enough weakness for one day for the dollar. Think cable is the key struggling to push higher . ISM figs out today after those see dollar improving so look to sell cable buy doll/chf buy doll/yen all look good risk reward trades.

Tallinn viies 11:18 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
van Gecko 11:13 - sorry to hear that u are not doing well!
bitterness is not helping u!

about the euro high I have no clue at the moment.
we are wiser when NYC starts and later when Ldn gives it over to NYC.
if no sell-off before that I would say we see 1,07-1,08 within this week

Tallinn viies 11:13 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
BTW - after euro hit 1,0480/85
I move trailing stop and reverse to 1,0404

van Gecko 11:13 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
morning viies.. sorry for the late reply & thank you for your views.. is your present micro bull views for 1.07 similiar to your generous micro bear views for .9600 which you shared with us when Euro was down at the .9860 lows in December.. ?
btw, do you think we had seen the high for today, or for this week ?
tia

Tallinn viies 11:09 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
UBS web -
Reynders: EUR rise "not first concern", growth top priority


this guy is crazy like always!

UAE Oil man 11:04 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Gold is good!

Gold is your friend!

610 looks good target.
oh and sell Morgan stanley!(holder of derivatives gold)

tpe jenn 11:02 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
hi Raden Mas
may i have your e-mail, thanks

UAE oil man 10:53 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Relatively speaking has been very low..

compared to it's startup 1999 price..

When everyone it buy it (99-02) ir crashes..
when everyone sells it , it flies


What am I?

ps :E--o

Surabaya joss 10:51 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Solo Raden Mas,good view on mayor and gold today.GL/GT

Surabaya joss 10:46 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Good day,good trading all nice friends.

Tallinn viies 10:42 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
my minimum target 1,0480/85 reached.
still suggesting to keep long euro positions and even buy more if corrections seen.
next target yearly highs and then last year highs
specualtive mass is keeping their stops over last year high (I think so, not sure of course)
we may see a joyride very very soon.
I wouldnt be suprised to see 100 points up from the this moment to Ldn close when Nyc takes it over

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 10:41 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Perth..
AUD/USD have done at 0.5630.thanks

UAE Oil man 10:40 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
First 1.075x

Then 1.0450

Then 1.16+

1.12

1.26

the coccoon is ready to mature!

Gold Coast 10:36 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
sing jdlc Aus is a buy near 57 today for a run to 5770 JIMHO

sing jdlc 10:31 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
thanks parity party, will wait at that level.

NZ Parity party 10:29 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Happy days! RE AUD - my experience with moves like todays is it will stall 37-40 and over next couple of sessions give u an opportunity to buy 5687-90 lvl.

London 10:26 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
LONDON (AP)--U.K. Foreign Secretary Jack Straw Monday said that war with Iraq had become less likely.
In an interview with BBC radio, Straw was asked about weekend reports quoting an unidentified government minister as saying the chances of war with Iraq had gone from 60-40 on to 60-40 against.
While refusing to identify the minister, Straw said: "I think that is a reasonably accurate description." Straw wouldn't say why he thought the chances of war had diminished. "I've repeated that war is not inevitable and that the preference of the international community is for (the situation) to be resolved peacefully," he said. The U.S. - backed by the U.K. - has threatened to use force to disarm Iraq if it doesn't voluntarily give up chemical and biological weapons as required by U.N. Security Council resolutions. Iraq maintains it has no banned weapons. Monday, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein accused U.N. weapons inspectors of engaging in "intelligence work" instead of searching for arms of mass destruction. Responding to Hussein's speech, Straw said: "We've heard this kind of stuff before. "People need to remember with Saddam Hussein the degree to which he has impoverished his own nation, the way in which time and again he has lied about his intentions."In a speech later Monday, Straw told U.K. ambassadors from around the world who gathered in London that "Iraqi disarmament - whether it is achieved by peaceful means or by force - is essential both for the world's capacity to deal with the threat presented by weapons of mass destruction and for the authority of the U.N."

Va Raven 10:25 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
No clue, Serge. Like I said prefer to sit aside and see the true color of the market for teh new year.....
So far nothing new, the price action wouldn't mean much till IMM closes today. Unless we see new high in euro now, I wouldn't even buy euro at 1.04 if the price action takes it there.....
Hope someone had just profitted one big figure from short gbp/chf since the market opened today.... I would get out that position too now.

sing jdlc 10:24 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
got a little only. was waiting to get a bigger chunk at .5150 levels which did not happen.

NZ Parity Party 10:22 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Sing jdlc - did you buy kiwi 5230-40 last week??

sing jdlc 10:19 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
is it too late to get aud?

nyc 10:18 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Dow Jones] HSBC says an AUD/USD close above 0.5665 today will bolster its view that the uptrend has resumed, with potential for a test of 0.5865. Trading at 0.5719, immediate support seen at 0.5660.

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 10:17 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Be carefull my friends..
USD/JPY not yet give buy signal, I think still move down for get new target at 118.60 or 118.45. thanks

Jerusalem Serge 10:15 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Hi Va Raven i am sweating with my dollar long positions do you think dollar can still gain today and what is your vieuw for todays us stocks

Oslo Klewer 10:13 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Raden Mas,
I took a time to consider all of your views before I started trading. Then I took the positios. And finally, I just want to say THANK YOU for all of them. I got profit!!! Bravo Raden Mas!

Va Raven 10:11 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Surprised to see the US equity futures not responding to Sadam's "position" like dollar did. ....
Beleive the market hasn't showed its true color yet for the new year, prefer to sit aside for today. Aud looks good, but many hurdles ahead to reach 0.5770, so took out my bet at 15.
Safe trading for the new year, friends here!

hk hj 10:09 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Raden Mas, for usd/jpy, well done. looks like that usd/jpy still heading lower... if there is no intervention...thanks.

Gen dk 10:06 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

JKT jangkrik 10:06 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
what about tomorrow wednesday with Yen related meeting economic team US vs Japan

Heusden Ed 10:05 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Re-post: Hello, can anybody recommend me a good book on daytrading the forex market. I heard of George Angell's "daytrading with precision" but i'm not sure if it can be applied to forex ....thnx

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 10:02 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
For USD/JPY traders...
have a nice for your target at 118.80. thanks

Tallinn viies 10:02 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
hk ab 09:48 - planning to buy at 1,0434

Tallinn viies 10:00 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
helsinki iw 09:47 - I have no doubts at all that 1,07 very very soon, 1,02-1,07 is reasonable range for 1Q

Guangzhou Joewoo 10:00 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Laowen// Do you believe that EUR will up to 1.0600 even 1.0800.
I think it will do that just as weekly chart shows.
BTW,I don`t think the war can be avoided.

Perth 09:53 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Gold surging above USD 352/oz with mkt talk centring on a move to USD 375/77 region. Active stop loss buying in Jpn and LDN adding an extra factor to an already bullish mkt on FX./global uncertainty factors

hk ab 09:48 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
viies where should we add eur longs now during this retracment.

helsinki iw 09:47 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Viies- I think we will se it at t/p-levels before buying levels, so
will look to add on dip. The Euro is trading very very strongly, and
can go to your 1,07s sooner than you think. IMHO

Tallinn viies 09:39 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
helsinki iw 09:31 - Im happy that I bought my short back n didnt stay in front of train

charts are not yet very veyr bullish so Im not too sad at the mom
if daily cycles also turn then I will buy tons of euros and it doesnt matter if the level is 1,0550 or 1,06

Tokyo Jon 09:34 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Getting a faint buy on EURAUD, would start to look serious around 1.3850

helsinki iw 09:31 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
viies-9:29- I think we will. This is very bid now, and I`m soooo
mad that I didn`t buy more at 1,0350.

Tallinn viies 09:29 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
after 61,8% retr taken,
new big-big point to take out is yearly high at 1,0495/00

Tokyo Jon 09:29 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
sorry for the late entry, but went to give the kid some food. I recieved an add to the short on USDJPY at 119.05, this pair has not seen the daily low yet and would consider a target somewhere around the 40 level as safe before the Japs even consider stepping in.

Paris 09:28 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
TRADING Central PARIS -- As long as 1.5680 is resistance, expect a direct continuation of the drop towards 1.5585 & even 1.5560. On the contrary, the upside breakout of 1.5680 would validate a recovery towards 1.5725 initially.

Ldn 09:22 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Tallinn viies :-(
not ery good at this

Tallinn viies 09:21 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Ldn - no

JKT jangkrik 09:20 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Hello Mr. Qindex.. Happy New Year 2003...

Tallinn viies 09:20 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
beijing road 09:16 GMT - send it to jay

t 09:17 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
t

beijing road 09:16 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
viies, may i have your email? TIA

Ldn 09:05 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Tallinn viies just say yes or no C.A.P.I.T.A.L. etc.

RSA abk 09:05 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Viies and Singapore L, thanks for your comments, in a weird sort of way it makes sense :-))

Tallinn viies 09:02 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Ldn - under big secret I can tell you that one possible way to find such guys is to go and check site
www.forexdirectory.net

Ldn 08:51 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Tallinn viies well we all know what its about
and that its a request

Tallinn viies 08:49 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Ldn 08:47 - I dont know if I may say it here!
some may took it as a advertisment

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 08:49 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Perth..
You are right, but for now still can get profit from here.thanks

Ldn 08:47 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Tallinn viies which sites do that show clients positions ?

Perth 08:45 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Indonesia solo Raden Mas is it too late to buy AUD at 5710 tks

Tallinn viies 08:45 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
abk - usually small specs are not very smart :(
90% of traders loose money.
if you trade against them u have better chances to make money!


there are certain web pages where some brokers show which are their clients positions. basically are they long or short!
this is very usufull info I think. isnt it?
anyway at the moment all small specs try to sell it on any move higher!

You may see such attitude also on this forum

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 08:44 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Yes...for Eur/USD
AUD still will up for 0.5730. thanks

singapore L. 08:41 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
RSA abk market tends to do the opposite to what everyone is expecting Sorry to butt in , but it is confusing at first -

RSA abk 08:41 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Sorry, that was to Tallinn Viies...

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 08:40 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Be carefull friends...
Eur/USD have get target at 1.0468 and now will get new target at 1.0530.
GBP/USD still down to target 1.6180
USD/JPY will down to 118.80
USD/CHF have get target at 1.3916 and still will down to 1.3868.
thanks

Ldn 08:40 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Here she goes the dollar .

RSA abk 08:38 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Talen Viies, Your last post a bit confusing - if there are too many dollar bulls, shouldn`t we SELL Euro then???

SYD 08:35 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
[Dow Jones] AUD/USD likely to target high 0.5700s in coming weeks now that it's broken 0.5660-80 resistance, although pair will have to overcome short-term selling at current levels around 0.5700, says Rothschild forex director Paul Macarounas; notes January traditionally strong month for pair and it could grind higher toward 0.5800 by month-end

hk ab 08:31 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
cad is flexing its muscle for a strong dive.

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 08:28 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
GBP/USD traders...
have a nice for GBP target 1.6180 ( 4.42 GMT jan,6).thanks

Tallinn viies 08:25 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
toooo many dollar bulls out there!!!
thats why euro will go up
1,0480/85 next
then 1,0500
cu later guys
BUY THE EURO - only reasonable thing to do!

Tallinn viies 08:23 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
ubs WEB - Iraq's Saddam says UN inspections are "pure intelligence work" and that Iraq is ready for war. - Doesn't fit with latest theory that he is ready to go into exile.

Toronto BA 07:57 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   

thx Houston-

Houston MB 07:50 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Toronto BA

It seems that there are about 3 active trading times throughout the session from my limited experience in FX. Around 7-9 am GMT seems to be one of them. That roughly matches the Europe opening time. NY opening as well as Asia opening, also seem to be active periods.

Toronto BA 07:43 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   

Houston- why is this an active trading period for directional moves?

thx

Fayetteville BDH 07:42 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Thanks!

waterloo yong 07:41 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Indonesia solo// seems Eur won't reach 1.0468

Tallinn viies 07:36 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
aprox. after 4 hours and 15 min

Fayetteville BDH 07:30 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Tallinn viies - What time does NY open and close GMT time? Asia?

Tallinn viies 07:27 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
good morning world!
nice to see u!
euro is feeling better again.
we have higher high and low compared to day before,
sounds good for further upmove.
as I said, bought tiny euro amount over 1,0420.
planning to add more if we see 1,0380-90 area.
if euro manage to stay over 1,0380 before NYC starts,
I will double my euro long position!
By my view euro is still on the move to 1,07-sh,
before any correction over 150 points
see u soon - 1,0485

Houston MB 07:25 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Good Luck and Trades to you also Fairfield. I am bias towards a stronger dollar currently for this week after that who knows...

London Lee 07:23 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Indonesia solo Raden Mas
Any confirmed signals on your system yet? Thanks

hk revdax 07:22 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Mb//Do you think we have seen the Hi of euro for today?

fairfield jsh 07:17 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
thanks...good trading and good luck to you then

Houston MB 07:14 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
I just look at the charts. This is an active trading period usually for directional moves. The direction seems to be in favor of the USD at this point. Wish I knew the level it will be at closing today.

fairfield jsh 07:09 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
houston...new to forex here...do you think that usd gaining will last this session?

Houston MB 07:06 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Looks like USD is getting ready to gain some ground this hour.

fairfield jsh 06:38 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
anyone ever traded on a wireless device? any thoughts? I travel frequently and wonder at their effectivness

TH, MapDtaPhut BW 06:29 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
anyone else long on GbJp ???

SFO al 06:27 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Out @ 119.25 Will reconsider later

Calcutta Vikram 06:22 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
...does not seem to be in very good taste, that.

1.6130 on Cable, 1.39 on Swissy and 1.0460 on Euro might be the tricky levels to watch. If these hold, the chances of a Dollar correction would continue to be alive. Cheers All.

TH, MapDtaPhut BW 06:14 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
just what i've been looking for...
A single girl who trades in the area.

singpapore LEE 06:12 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
SINGAPORE NOODY GIRL
i am miss LEE, not MR.LEE, thanks

Sydney FXtrader 06:09 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Happy New Year to everyone. Glad that we didn't have drama over the the New Year. EURUSD retraced from 1.0500 to 1.0330 and now back to 1.0440/45. The retracement is not over yet. We should see the break of 1.0330 before the break of 1.0500. So sell on....target at 1.0250/60 & stop above last year high. However, the process may take few days. The range that EURUSD should stuck is 1.0340-1.0390 in the next few days. The uptrend in December was mainly based on the war concern. In term of fundamental economy, neither EZ nor US are doing any good. So the current uptrend from Dec is not that reliable.

I do think EURUSD will take out 1.0500 eventually but not far from 1.0625-1.0800 then we probably see a big retracement that might take EUR back below 1.0000. Then the trade deficit of US will soon become the focus of the market in 2003. Therefore, another rally may be seen in the end of this year. This is just the big picture in my mind at the moment. Too early to bet on that.

For EURJPY, I'm expecting a big crash in the big picture eventually. It's just I'm not sure if the price will hit the upside first 125.60 or even 126.50.

More later.....


Shenzhen Laowen 05:40 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Happy new year,all mates!
Haven't traded for about 7 days.
In New Year holiday moods,
I have been enjoy my new 20GB iPod,
which is very great...:-)

Good trades and good luck to us all.

Chigago Irish 05:34 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
LOL off to my Tempurpedic mate...........Good night all and good huntibg.

LA ARTOFYEN 05:33 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Should read funky beads but I'll blame it on lack of sleep.

LA ARTOFYEN 05:32 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
I hope that doesn't apply this early in trading year, Chicago but i'm afraid it will be a very common occurence throughout this next year. And on that pleasant note, i'm taking myself from waterloo to water bed! (Yes, i still have funky hanging from my door mounting and a red lava flow lamp that lights up when my levels in the market are hit.) Nitey nite.

Chigago Irish 05:26 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Or Napoleon Blownapart?

LA ARTOFYEN 05:23 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Napoleon Bodyparte?

Singapore WN 05:22 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Think players will go looking for BOJ bids today given price action , market seems a little long waiting for direct BOJ intervention.
Short and lowered stop to 119.34
GL and GT to all

LA ARTOFYEN 05:22 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Hi BNE, good luck to you and everyone else this year. I intially thought the market would punish some usd shorts out there when everyone returned back to the fray. I like the usd much lower this year but fancy a correction first before we begin another downside march. Don't want to ghet too cute though and risk missing a continuation of trend. Hence, I think we might see GBP little lower very short term but much higher this year. I'm watching .6500 pivot point as a clue for now in short term gbp direction. Should be solid offers from 1.6050 to 1.6200 to start. Good luck mate.

Singapore Sfx 05:22 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
and to you, arty ..
on napoleon with that last name , the sky is the limit on this line of thought, mate ... best to stop right here!

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 05:20 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Waterloo yong..
my answer : yess..

LA ARTOFYEN 05:18 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
As Jay runs a family style forex forum, apologies are in order since I can't respond in a vulgar manner (which is the easiest route for me), SFX. Good luck this year by way mate.

Bne Cad 05:16 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Artofyen: Great to see you. Do you have any bullish views on cable today?

Chigago Irish 05:16 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Arty:Excellent double entendre!!!!!!!!

LA ARTOFYEN 05:15 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Re CAD....Held 1.5440 nicely before the much anticipated rush up to 1.5770 objective, where large option selling at 1.5800 capped the rally. Now we are under selling pressure which could take us down to 1.5550 test. Holding above there can get us back to 1.5740 but a failure sets the wheels in motion for my downside objective of 1.5220 first quarter usd/cad. IMHO Stay tuned gang.

Singapore Sfx 05:14 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Only josephine can tell, arty ...

LA ARTOFYEN 05:12 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Does that mean he's short, Irish?

Chigago Irish 05:10 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Waterloo: Are you related to Napoleon?

Singapore Sfx 05:07 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
53 bid n gvn (once) 05.04 gmt on EBS ...

waterloo yong 05:06 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Indonesia solo // now, i know.. thank you again.. however, is the USA/JAP give the sell signals? will down to 118.80?.. then where is the short position for JAP then?

Singapore Sfx 05:05 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Yes, sir .. 53 just traded tho .. mite have been a mishit but we are 50/51 as we speak

Va Raven 05:04 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Thanks again, SFX, I take it as an official number as usual from you. EBS?

hk revdax 05:02 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Let me take a contrarian view. IMVHO...Euro is making the last effort to go up and ...then top out. That is to say, whatever the Hi will be of today(Jan 6), it will not be surpassed tomorrow.

Singapore Sfx 05:01 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
1.0449, Raven

Va Raven 04:59 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
What was the high paid in eur/usd, anyone if handy? Tia.

SFO al 04:53 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Long USD/JPY @ 119.17 S/L under 118.80 T/P 119.80(120.20)
GL!

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 04:50 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Waterloo yong
Please discipline with your stop loss, ang you can cut reverse for your position although too late. thanks

Singapore Noodygirl 04:50 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Sorry Mr Lee the last time I passed it in this forum I got some lewd comments Lets talk thru this page
Tokyo side saying MoF has covert bids in the high end of 118s

hk hj 04:49 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Raden Mas, Thanks for your info.

singpapore lee 04:45 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
SINGAPORE NOODYGIRL
Can i have your email address?

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 04:42 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
ny sa - HK hj - Houston PM
Eur/USD not yet give sell signal, my predict soon will get 1.0468 or 1.0530
USD/CHF not yet give buy signal, my predict soon will get 1.3916 or 1.3868
USD/JPY still give sell signal, my predict soon will down to 118.80
GBP/USD still give buy signal for 1.6180 as a target.
Gold still will move up for 364.55
thanks

Bne Cad 04:40 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Raden Mas: Salamat pagie. Your calls last Friday were brillant. Hats off to you. Do you see any retarcement in the GBP? Thanks!

waterloo yong 04:37 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Indonesia solo Raden// thx so much.. but i had already in short position at rate in 1.0411.. then what any suggestion should i do now then?if u have an idea, however, if not,still appreciate u so much reply me...
Regard yong..

HK 04:34 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
EUR/USD may test interim support at 1.0207-1.0255 area this week as short-term pressure remains modestly to downside, says JP Morgan in report; notes recent rise above July high of 1.0215 in pre-Christmas trade has met initial topside targets around 1.0500, with downward retracement unfolding from here. But as long as pair holds above previous major high 1.0170, move back above 1.0500 toward 1.0700-1.0900 zone remains favored. (dow jones)

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 04:33 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Waterloo yong
Eur/USD still move up for 1.0468 for short term or will get new high at 1.0530 (as top ?). Better buy at 1.0380 and stop at 1.0324. thanks

NEW ZEALAND ` TF 04:30 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
hello
just wondering if any would one be able to advise me on what is the best rate to buy USD/JPY at .?

Houston PM 04:29 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Raden...my model calls the bottom of the current range as of Friday's close around 119.16...what does your current system predict...up from here???

hk hj 04:25 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Raden Mas / good morning to you. looking forward to hearing your view on usd/jpy... this pair is drifting lower towards the recent low ...? thank you for your idea on this pair.

Houston PM 04:24 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Raden...Just another solid call, thanks again. Is your e-mail address still the same as the last one you gave me? I will send you another shortly. Cheers.

nyc sa 04:24 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
hello Indonesia , good to see you back , what's your view on USD/SFR ?EUR/USd and USD/yen ?

ldn 04:23 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
EUR-NOK Tech: black weekly candle see bears back in control

waterloo yong 04:21 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Indonesia solo// hi.. can i join ur chat as well.. appreciate so much.. and can i ask what u think of Eur for today's trade? will be up 1.0450 more and stand in 1.0500?

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 04:21 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Houston PM
Have a nice your target 119.50 or 119.15 (justified have "done" ?)

Houston PM 04:19 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Raden...Good morning...I look forward to chatting today. Good luck and good trades to you.

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 04:14 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Hello...my kindly friens I am here now, let's better for today trades
Thanks Mr. Jay...

Singapore WN 04:10 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Happy New Year to all

To Singapore participants please see help forum.

GL and GT to all I hope the year is a profitable one.

WSJ> NYCC. 04:07 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
WASHINGTON -- In a bold bid to pursue the Republican economic agenda and spur economic growth, President Bush plans to propose a sweeping package that would eliminate the taxes individuals pay on stock dividends, accelerate income-tax-rate cuts approved two years ago and provide $400 rebate checks for middle-class parents. The "growth and jobs" package Mr. Bush is to outline in a speech in Chicago tomorrow will be much bigger than even his Republican congressional allies had anticipated. It's now expected to cost $600 billion over the next 10 years, administration officials say, twice what many analysts had predicted. Bush aides cautioned that details could still change.
As recently as last week, the president was thought to be ready to propose cutting the dividend tax in half, not eliminating it completely. He was also expected not to seek an acceleration of tax cuts for the richest taxpayers. White House officials believe the expanded package will serve both their political and economic goals. By putting such an ambitious plan on the table, they give themselves plenty of bargaining chips in negotiations with Democratic lawmakers. They also believe their package will provide a dose of economic stimulus sufficiently large -- between $80 billion and $100 billion in the first year -- to boost economic growth and begin to push the unemployment rate below its current 6% level well before Mr. Bush faces the voters in November 2004. The White House believes the plan will boost stock prices by about 10% and increase consumer spending, though Democrats are skeptical of the impact. To achieve those aims, the president is accepting a number of risks. One is the prospect of a growing federal budget deficit, which congressional analysts say could grow to $250 billion or more in the current fiscal year, up from $158 billion last year. A rising deficit could also drive up interest rates. Another potential source of trouble is that Democrats, especially those seeking to run against Mr. Bush in 2004, may successfully cast the Bush tax cuts as excessively favoring the wealthy. "The president is trying to pull a fast one . . . to put money in the pockets of the richest Americans over a long period of time while providing very little help for regular people," one presidential hopeful, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, said yesterday on ABC's "This Week." Mr. Bush needs help from Democrats in the Senate to win quick approval of the package by the spring, as Mr. Bush's strategists want. A continued weak economy could undermine prospects for Mr. Bush's broader agenda of revamping Medicare later this year, and then turning to Social Security later in his presidency. To blunt Democratic arguments that Mr. Bush cares only for the wealthy, the White House is expected to push for an extension of unemployment benefits that expired on Dec. 28 because Congress left town without acting. Mr. Bush will also seek a retooling of the child tax credit to produce rebate checks for many parents and a $10 billion package of aid to financially troubled state governments -- a Democratic priority. The latter could also win him important allies among the nation's governors. House Democrats were putting final touches on their own plan to be released today. It would cost $100 billion to $130 billion mostly this year. Key features include a rebate for individuals; significant aid to states and local governments to help with increased homeland security and Medicaid costs; and tax breaks for small businesses to encourage more capital investmentDemocratic leadership aides were still tinkering with the particulars but the rebate was expected to give about $500 to a typical household. Democratic aides said that while their package would be much smaller overall than Mr. Bush's, it would deliver more juice to the economy in the near term. Almost all of the package's impact would come in 2003, they said. The plan also would include Democrats' extension of expiring unemployment benefits. As the White House negotiates a deal with Congress, Democrats will try to get some of their provisions added to a final package. The apparent loser in last-minute White House deliberations are businesses that had hoped the president would support an expansion of a temporary tax incentive for business investment that was enacted in 2002 and expires in 2004. The plan is, however, likely to include a less-expensive break aimed primarily at investment spending by small businesses. Business lobbyists on Capitol Hill, especially in the high-tech sector, are expected to push hard for additional investment incentives as Republicans and Democrats wrangle over the final package The centerpiece of the Bush proposal is a plan -- estimated to cost the Treasury $300 billion over 10 years -- to eliminate entirely the federal income taxes individual shareholders pay on corporate dividends. The president's advisers had recently considered cutting the dividend tax by half, but they decided on full elimination to provide the economy with an additional boost. Economists have long argued that dividends are taxed twice -- once at the corporate level and again when paid as dividends to shareholders. Eliminating the tax could boost stock prices by about 10%, the president's advisers estimate. Earlier this year, the White House had talked of a 20% gain in stock prices, but they have since reworked the calculation. Any significant gain would help reduce the cost to business of raising capital, spurring investment. A stock surge would also help fatten American families' shrunken stock-market portfolios. The White House argues that could produce $30 billion to $50 billion in additional consumer spending over the next year or two. But the dividend-tax-cut plan is certain to be controversial. Chris Varvares, an economist at Macroeconomic Advisors in St. Louis, says the White House calculations of its economic impact are sound. But Janet Yellen, President Clinton's former chief economist, says she is skeptical that the dividend cut would do much to boost consumer spending. "I wouldn't rate that as an effective form of stimulus," she said. Democrats will find it easy to argue that the biggest beneficiaries of the dividend-tax break are the best-off Americans. Despite the huge stock gains of the 1990s, only about half of all American families own stock, including shares owned in retirement savings plans, such as 401(k) plans, according to analyses of Federal Reserve Board data by James Poterba, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist. In 2000, the Internal Revenue Service says, 63% of the dividends reported on individual income-tax returns went to taxpayers with adjusted gross income, or pretax income, above $100,000. Fewer than one in 10 American taxpayers makes that much money. Already, the size of the Bush package is prompting criticism that he is too complacent about the size of the mushrooming federal deficit. "A package of this size would drive up long-term rates and have an adverse effect on the recovery as it gets going," says Ms. Yellen. She and other former Clinton administration economic advisers continue to hold that their recipe worked well: Reduce the deficit, bring down long-term interest rates and spur business investment. Democratic politicians are, however, unwilling to argue that the deficit is so important that the government ought to avoid tax cuts altogether this year. "We have to do something -- take some tax cuts, make sure that they're immediate, that they help the middle class, and they have no long-range deficit problems," Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada said on NBC's "Meet the Press" yesterday. "We should do something to take care of the people who work for corporations, not the corporations themselves, necessarily."

Tokyo AN 04:03 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Does anyone have comments/experience with censored?
I am planning to open an account with them, but also like to professionalism of Gain.
Thanks
Allan

hk ab 04:02 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
looks like aud/nzd bottomed finally.

singapore 04:02 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
FX, oil market unlikely to pay much heed to reports Saddam Hussein to deliver televised speech to nation at 0800 GMT; nothing out of blue, is to mark Army Day. Expect Saddam to urge people to be brave vs U.S. threat, perhaps deny again Iraq has weapons of mass destruction; such rhetoric wouldn't move markets much. Note though CNN reports civilian militia conducting drills south of Baghdad, area which could be bulwark in defending capital vs any invasion

Hong Kong nt 04:01 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
EURO--favor pullback to 1.0250/00 before bulls start to gather again...IMHO

Singapore Noodygirl 03:55 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
its as simple as this
an expiry is a right not an obligation, and 0.5700s may not be exercised but Im sure people are trying to trade off it
a KO is a trigger and ends the life of the structure
example 1.0500 KO

Aucklsand 03:46 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
AUCKLAND (AP)--A senior U.S. envoy met Monday with New Zealand's foreign minister to discuss the crisis in Iraq but said he didn't ask for New Zealand to contribute troops to a possible war.
"It is not a question of a specific request for commitment," U.S. Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton told reporters after briefing New Zealand Foreign Minister Phil Goff on the crises in Iraq and North Korea. "We would welcome New Zealand's support across a whole range of possibilities as this (Iraq crisis) evolves," he said. New Zealand is Bolton's first stop on a trip through the Asia-Pacific region. Iraq's campaign of concealment of its weapons of mass destruction was of "serious mutual concern to the two governments," Bolton said. Goff said New Zealand was still offering medical and other humanitarian support in any multilateral action, "and we would only support force (against Iraq) as a last resort, given the failure of other mechanisms to achieve disarmament." Goff said New Zealand wants to ensure that any military action against Iraq doesn't diminish support for the campaign against global terrorism and minimizes the risk of destabilizing the Middle East. Bolton said he wouldn't rule out the possibility that Iraq may have moved its weapons of mass destruction into Syria to escape their detection by U.N. inspectors. "I think it's probably much more likely that Iraq is attempting to conceal them inside the country for readier use by them," he said. After leaving New Zealand, Bolton will brief government ministers in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines before flying on to Japan, South Korea and China to discuss North Korea's nuclear program.

He said maximum diplomatic pressure was being exerted on North Korea to stop its efforts to build nuclear

melbourne farmacia 03:45 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
hk ab - yeah - thats a better level. Price dropped as I was writing.

HK. 03:44 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Singapore Noodygirl 02:45 GMT January 6, 2003
its an expiry not a KO
What is the difference for reaction

Singapore Noodygirl 03:43 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Dont think MOF will intervene at least our time
2 lifers are selling
Aud buying from one fund has stopped this morning
a lot of offers still to 0.5720
will try to offer 0.5715

tky 03:42 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Reminding FX market Japan remains vigilant against buoyant JPY, Finance Minister Shiokawa tells local TV program JPY overvalued, and it's natural for excessive strength to correct; remarks provide little new insight into MOF thinking, but signal authorities still on guard against USD/JPY decline as trade kicks off in new year, likely to discourage speculative JPY buying. (AXS)

hk ab 03:42 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
farmarcia, I think stop buy @119.60 rather.

melbourne farmacia 03:39 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Perth - if you think BOJ are in a party mood, place stop buy @ 120.10
for quick ride.

London J. 03:37 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
I Agree with you Perth, getting a funning feeling in my waters that they will surprise - its a half day on the stocks in Japan? perfect for a quick nip in the bud -

Stockholm ZA 03:35 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Bne Cad .. levels to watch--1,6068 > 1,6038 > 1,6013 > 1,5988

Perth 03:34 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Cos think we will get a bit of a surpise later

Perth 03:33 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
If the BoJ do intervene on the USD/YEN how will in affect the other currencies. please. eg. aud - euro gbp etc again it the Dollar

hk ab 03:22 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
thanks. bkk, remember by eur/chf short call last Fri, will see what the chf can do to exit.

Ldn 03:21 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Target 1.0455 Buy at 1.0380 Stop at 1.0350 03:10 GMT - MMS SIN - 06-Jan - EUR-USD struggles to sustain probes above 1.0435 but dips would be viewed as buying opportunities below the 1.0400 level. Above the 1.0435 level will see extension to test 1.0455 and then 1.0500. However, bear divergence on daily tools warns of risk on the downside with breakdown from the 1.0340/35 lows of last week to trigger stronger correction. Break see extension towards 1.0260, 38.2% Fibo level.
S&P

Bangkok BKK 03:16 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
hk ab:
However I will keep an eye on 1.0460-65 areas carefully.(.764 fibo)
I might take profit around that level.(if i see Euro fail to overcome that resistance)

hk ab 03:15 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
what's the target for this long run of eur long? 1.05?

Bangkok BKK 03:10 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
hk ab 02:30 GMT
No , I am not exit my Eur/Usd long position.(new long position @1.0414, Asain opening)
Will continue follow Big Sharks this week.

Stockholm ZA 03:09 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Happy new year... And prosperous trades to every one for 2003....

nyc 03:05 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Reuters
Dollar weakness may lift U.S. profits, not stocks


CHICAGO, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Currency fluctuations are a dime a dozen to investors, so while a declining dollar might help profits and sales for U.S. manufacturers with big overseas businesses, their stock prices may not follow suit, analysts said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030105/manufacturing_dollar_1.html

"Most investors look past that because it's proven over long periods of time the strength and weakness of currency tends to be an exact wash," said John Zimmerman, senior market strategist at Banc of America Capital Management, which had about $229 billion in assets under management as of Sept. 30.

Bne Cad 02:50 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
How far might cable retrace today? ( still short from 1.6076)

hk ab 02:47 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
thanks very much. will keep an eye on those two levels.
Wish to see Qindex come by.

Singapore Sfx 02:46 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Thanks Noody .. good luck

Singapore Noodygirl 02:45 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
its an expiry not a KO

hk ab 02:44 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
does anyone know is that .57 aussie option got taken?

Singapore Noodygirl 02:43 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Hi AB as far as we know
there are some offers from 1.6110
but two points to watch for me
for it to head lower it has to go under 1.6050
and not higher than 1.6140 again GL GT

hk ab 02:38 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
The cad shows a clear SELL!

hk ab 02:37 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
tks Noody, what do you think about my stg short? @1.6090

Singapore Noodygirl 02:36 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Yes Jan 8-9
He is reporting to his "real masters"?

Singapore Noodygirl 02:34 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Hi AB cut it this morning at 83
dont have an order just looking at some option strategies
I guess we all need to wait till Snow's confirmation and Bush's new package

Singapore Sfx 02:32 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Happy New Year, Noody .. still too woozy to take a call on how its going to look a couple of weeks from now .. Hearing the japs talking about takenaka's trip ?

hk ab 02:30 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
bkk did you exit your eur long?

hk ab 02:29 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
noody, did you exit your dlr/jpy long?
I think aud bode well by aud/jpy at the moment.
I have shorted stg though w/ sl above 1.61 somewhere.

Singapore Noodygirl 02:28 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Just 2 weeks SFX Happy New Year

Singapore Sfx 02:20 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
What tenor, Noody ?

Singapore Noodygirl 02:17 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Anyone looking to sell Stg/Usd straddles ?

tpe jenn 02:17 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Singapore Noodygirl 02:01
good noody
thanks raven, raven call it last week

TH, MapDtaPhut BW 02:16 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
does anyone here use the IMM Swaps that are posted on this site ?
If so, how are they used as a tool for 4X ?

London J. 02:11 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Singapore Noodygirl looks like they are starting jawbowning

Tokyo 02:09 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Yen intervention warning from Japan's Finance Minister Shiokawa has just hit the news wires, though is statement that there is a global perception that the yen is too high is dubious. Shiokawa says it would be natural for the yen to "normalise." Certainly, on the BoJ's trade weighted index (top 26 trading partner calculation) the yen is back to the upper ranges seen over the last year. Japan's economic status of being a net creditor nation tends to see the yen strengthen during periods of heightened risk aversion.

Singapore Noodygirl 02:08 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
I dont think they are going to do it
They missed their chance to move it thru 120.80-90
Major funds would have loved a momentum move like that last Friday
given the very very large stops over 121.50/60
Now we are too close for comfort to the Takenaka meetings
and Bush"s economic package
A steady Dlr fall is mostly expected ?

London J. 02:05 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Singapore Noodygirl do you see the BOJ striking today - seems the Yen is getting a lift ?

LA a4 02:02 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Singapore Noodygirl yes you could be correct, seems though now buy the dips to 5670 could be the go as the was the low it started the week in Asia today.

Singapore Noodygirl 02:01 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Congrats Jenn on your Aud call

JM TheEuro... 02:01 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
hello guys, I'm trying to search the forum but don't know how far the dates go back from the current day.

Does anyone have this aspect of knowledge?

Singapore Noodygirl 01:58 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
I dont expect the Oz to go very far above 0.5715
U shud see a reversal back to the high 60s
However be careful and do leave a stop
When a big name buys such strikes it tells u that the market is eyeing a return overall to 0.5770s?
What do u think of it?

Ldon 01:58 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Standard Bank London upbeat on copper as falling inventories in means China may start importing more; better-than-expected U.S. December ISM, November construction spending also boost prospects, with LME 3-month contract likely to probe $1,640/ton short term after re-establishing foothold above $1,600. But high crude prices, possibility of war could spoil copper's party. 3-month copper now +$4 at $1,615 vs late London kerb Friday. rts.

LA. a4 01:45 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Singapore Noodygirl just your opinion here gal, do you see a better level later to buy the aud today

Singapore Noodygirl 01:43 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Its NY cuts for the Oz
also seein spec buying this morning of 0.6000 strikes
7 mths tenor so interest skewed for the Oz
too bad on the cricket game though :-(

Tokyo Jon 01:42 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Get prepared for another round to sell USD.

ny dh 01:40 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Bangkok BKK 01:31 GMT January 6, 2003
Hi everyone,
Any views on AUD/USD?
It just break above 0.5690....
Thanks in advance.


BUY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Atl GG 01:37 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
How bout them Falcons...sucks for the Gints..hey NYC ED..your looking good on the Aussie Mate:))

Bangkok BKK 01:31 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Hi everyone,
Any views on AUD/USD?
It just break above 0.5690....
Thanks in advance.

Perth R. 01:29 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Singapore Noodygirl you mention Aus option 57 any idea when expires and if could be taken out if not too strong resistance there cheers

Tokyo Jon 01:27 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Singapore Noodygirl, same to you
I just love thoughs cryptic clues that u give.
keep up the fantastic work and heres to having a bowl of noodles with you.

Singapore Noodygirl 01:25 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
You are the product of globalisation
Cheers and hope you do well for this year

Pecs Andras 01:24 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Noodygirl
Thanks for your views.

Tokyo Jon 01:23 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
FWIW, I recieved a sell signal on USDCHF and USDJPY an hour ago at 1.3959 and 119.74

Tokyo Jon 01:21 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Singapore Noodygirl, That is a most interesting question.
I am Born and Breed Australian, with my fixed address in Tokyo, and based throught other countries such as China and England. I do favour Shanghai over the other cities though, but people know me as Tokyo Jon, so as to not confuse people with my travels I have kept the one location.

Singapore Noodygirl 01:19 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
0.5700 expiries are due today
so don't think its today honey
DlrYen stops at 50 done
think market is worried for the Dlr as Bush's additional spending will widen the current account deficits a bit too wide
on the flipside they have not scheduled Snow's appearance fast enough to stop market from testing the Dlr

Jacksonville, FL ECP 01:16 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
USD/Yen 119.52
USD/CHF 1.3967
USD/EUR 1.0424

I see these at a key area. Does anyone concur?

tpe jenn 01:12 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Singapore Noodygirl 00:43
is it possible to above .5700, thanks in advance

Singapore Noodygirl 01:09 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Its a fair bet
but do it once and not on a second try
overall the mood is a bit positive on the Euros still
125.20 and then 125.65 are the interesting points on top

Pecs Andras 01:05 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
No problem Noodygirl:-) I jsut wondered that these Padras guys might be some bunch of traders intrested in seeing EUR/Yen at that level.
Do you think it is good to short this crsoss at this level with a stop above 125.30?

Singapore Noodygirl 01:02 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Sorry meant you Sir
sorry for wrong spelling
How are you? I cut my DlrYen long this morning at 83
Not much joy with a 120.03 long

Pecs Andras 00:54 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Singapore Noodygirl 00:49
Who are EUR Yen Pedras?

Singapore Noodygirl 00:49 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
125.20 is the key level for EuroYen Pedras

Singapore Noodygirl 00:47 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Its already above 80 ?
Swiss guy will drive somewhere closer to 90

London 00:46 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
NZD/USD around 0.5265, down vs 0.5280 at opening; "The Kiwi just got a little bit ahead of itself," says one dealer, "It just got a bit over-extended on the way up on Friday night," when pair hit 0.5290 in NY; expects dip to around 0.5250-55 later, but says pair generally well supported rts.

HK. 00:42 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Short term think Aud a sell .. any views see range 5650 -5680 today in asia

Pecs Andras 00:40 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Hi to all in all different time zones!
Any specific views on EUR/Yen cross?
Looking to short it...

Singapore Noodygirl 00:39 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Jon San
are you Japanese or otherwise?

Tokyo Jon 00:32 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Goodmorning, afternoon or Evening all,
I am now settle in Shanghai, its bloody cold, but gives me a chance to stay in bed with the laptop and do some analysis.
EURUSD [1.0416], Sell under 1.0390, Target 1.0340, Stop and Reverse at 1.0420
EURUSD [1.0416], Buy above 1.0440, Target 1.0490, Stop 1.0380

I do have a confirmed buy signal on the EURUSD at 1.0420 but I too am favouring 1.0440 as the key level and we may see it being forced down at that level. If you are only after 15 or so pips, then this is worth a look at.

Tallinn viies 00:31 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
support now at 1,0410/15
very strong support today at 1,0380/90 area.
good night
cu tom morning

melbourne bigal 00:29 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Mob consensus seems to be EUR$ short, and for today I agree. I have entered a small short here on EUR$ at 1.0424. Initial target 1.0380, with the possibility of a new yearly low in the next day or so. My bias is for US$ consolidation over the next few sessions, that should be capped in the 1.02 region.

nyc 00:26 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
[Dow Jones] Expensive Bush economy package set to be unveiled Tuesday means U.S. can't afford to dump strong-dollar policy, says Deutsche Bank's Marshall Gittler; spending, tax cuts could total $600 billion over 10 years; "how can he finance this deficit without help from overseas investors?" Expects Treasury nominee Snow "will at least maintain the 'benign neglect"' O'Neill showed toward USD and may even reaffirm support "in more robust terms

Melb RS 00:18 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
Good to hear cashman ... I hate hearing stories of people being ripped off by dodgey brokers

'London 00:02 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
BREMEN, Germany (AP)--Labor union and government negotiators were locked in last-gasp negotiations Sunday aimed at avoiding the first big strike by Germany's public-service workers in more than a decade.

The talks were supposed to end at midnight, but participants were braced for the wrangling over a compromise put forward by mediators to drag on long into Monday morning.

Unions have demanded a pay rise of at least 3% for nearly 3 million workers from tax collectors to police officers, threatening widespread strikes so that members keep up with generous awards for industrial workers last year.

Cash-strapped federal, state and local authorities initially sought a pay freeze, then offered a rise of 0.9% from January and a further 1.2% increase from October. Interior Minister Otto Schily has warned that a better offer could only be funded by job cuts.

Union officials said during a break in the closed-door talks Sunday that mediators led by former Bremen mayor Hans Koschnick proposed a 3% wage increase as part of an 18-month package.

To make it more acceptable to employers, workers would also be asked to make concessions such as working longer and paying more towards their pensions, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

With Germany struggling to fend off recession, employers warn that the country can ill afford a big strike. Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, under fire over his management of the economy, has urged both sides to use "common sense" and end the conflict.

Unions, who already paralyzed airports and public transport with a series of short stoppages, also want an agreement to bring wages in the former communist east up to the level of those in the more affluent west by 2007.

The ver.di public-service union has called a meeting in Bremen Monday to consider the results of the mediation effort. If arbitration fails, the union can hold a ballot among its members on widespread strike action.

Strikes are rare in Germany, but recent pay talks have been tough because of the economic slowdown and labor's intention to make up for moderate increases in past years.

Public-service workers haven't carried out a major strike since 1992 when an 11-day stoppage left garbage piled in the streets.

Singapore Noodygirl 00:02 GMT January 6, 2003 Reply   
[ CPZFYBY]

DJ Japan Govt,LDP Set To Adopt Inflation Target Policy-Kyodo


TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The government and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party are
poised to adopt an inflation-targeting policy to fight deflation and prop up the
economy, LDP Secretary General Taku Yamasaki indicated, Kyodo News reported.
"We should do it, and I believe the prime minister (Junichiro Koizumi) also
probably deeply understands that point," Yamasaki said on a TV talk show Sunday.
Against this backdrop, Yamasaki called it "desirable" to appoint "a person
embracing the principle of pursuing guided inflation" as a successor to Bank of
Japan Governor Masaru Hayami whose five-year term ends in March.
Hayami has resisted calls for inflation targets, saying the BOJ doesn't have
the policy tools to achieve controlled inflation in the current deflationary
environment.
"In this time of emergency, the government and the BOJ must undertake (policy
measures) under a united stance," Yamasaki said.
Hiroshi Kumagai, leader of the New Conservative Party, a member of the
tripartite ruling coalition along with the LDP and the New Komeito party, agreed
with Yamasaki, calling for an inflation target, Kyodo reported.
"Japan has become sort of an isolated island," he said, noting that a roughly
3% rise in prices is now considered the global standard.


 




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