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Forex Forum Archive for 01/12/2003

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NC JJM 23:57 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
taillin>>> u have been dead on...good job there friend...keep up the good work..cheers

Tallinn viies 23:54 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
thnks
only following the historical pattern that january is THE month for the FX markets

NC JJM 23:50 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
aud still targets .5920 and then .6000 (see below)...vol studies on daily show move has much more room to run......5680 should be strong support on any pullbacks


NC JJM 13:40 GMT January 7, 2003

aud looks like it may just be beggining its break-out.....long here (.5745) and will buy more near .5700 with s/l below .5680....... 58 cents is strong resitance but once broken think .5920 and then .6000 will be seen shortly thereafter...


Singapore Noodygirl 23:46 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Congrats the forum's biggest Euro bull
Agree coming close to the noted target but for me 10 ticks lower
around 1.0640

Tallinn viies 23:41 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
good evening!
new week again, but story will be the same - pressure to buy the euro! we are nearing with the full speer to the levels (WALL if I may say so) which are very very important on the longer term charts. check it out

suggesting to all of you to play on the long side as long as low from the day before not penetrated. target 1,0650 and if everything turns out as good as until now we may see even 1,0800
there is room for 300 points correction, stay ready for that.
I guess first possible level to add long positions is 1,0525 area.
good luck

Buenos Aires MKC 23:22 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Santos acording to my knowledge Eurobroker uses 1:25 leverage, that sounds good

NC JJM 23:22 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
toronto sparker>>> great comments friend...well said

sarasota jf>>>> great comments also about the biz

milano stefanto 23:16 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
santos, friend. better contact them as I did... really it would do you good. thanks gl gt

Buenos Aires MKC 23:08 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
I saw them a few days ago at fxstreet, and perhaps I'll track their signals soon

Sydney FXtrader 23:07 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
The data from Friday was bad enough to push EURUSD higher. It probably explained why the unexpected strong move from 1.0360/65 to 1.0535. This make me to believe that someone has got that info before the official announcement. The range is over now. EURUSD should on its way to finish the rest of its uptrend now. 1.0500-1.0550 should offer good support for now On the top range, watchout 1.0640-1.0690. This is the new forecast.

EURJPY should test the resistance line at 126.60/65.
GBPUSD didn't make new high on Friday. This is interesting. It's very likely GBPUSD has reached a short term top. EURGBP should head up to 0.6620-50.
USDCHF will only see support ahead of 1.3717-35.
USDCAD should break 1.5000 eventually and target 1.4200 in a bog picture.

santos rs 23:06 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
what about the degree of leverage used? Did you find it reliable? Could I contact you by e-mail? If yes i ´ll contact Jay

milano stefano 23:01 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
risky sure..but have great cushion to support predictable drawdowns...I just follow..when I'm tired of them I will stop..now I'm for sure enjoying..gt gl

santos rs 22:59 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
milano, but what do you think about working without stop loss?

milano stefano 22:57 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
yes indeed I know them : great on euro$ pair..

santos rs 22:53 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
anybody knows eurobroker.org? Any comments?

Toronto Sparker 22:40 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
sarasota jf 22:26 ..thank you for that...

waterloo yong 22:37 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
hi... guys... hope everyone has a good trade in this week..

sarasota jf 22:35 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
melb rs - look i just expect it to look offered then later move higher - this is not a good market right now - eur and partic. gbp offer much better odds, but of course there will be people who want to play in yen today..... you can play on the internet most of the day i guess so that will keep you busy.. gl

Melb RS 22:29 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
sarasota jf: Your view is backed up by my oda book this morn. Expected to see large stops sub 118.70 this morn, but instead I have bids in very good size from 118.90 all the way down to 117.80. The real serious ones are at 118.30-35.

sarasota jf 22:26 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Toronto Sparker
just on your earlier comments - i have worked in f/x for going on 12 years in banks/corp and trading houses - pure prop traders in that time I have only seen 3 make money year in year out - everyone else rides the rollercoaster and talks a big book... seen plenty of sales people make money by ripping off customers though - that will never cease - i agree with your thoughts on free rides - if you cant do your own homework fx will eat you alive - it is a very unforgiving beast - you either learn or die .... gl

Chicago Irish 22:17 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Livingston nh:Thanks,merely confirms what we have known all along.Amazed they put any of it in black and white!

Rivonia PipPirate 22:02 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Why thank yea Squire Toronto Sparker.

Toronto Sparker 21:54 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate 21:49 ...ya too funny..and a rascal!

sarasota jf 21:49 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
asia monday-tokyo out
euro looks likely to keep moving higher with dips limited to 1.0530-40 and topside first target 1.0652.... for asia/london/nymonday
gbp is the clearest trade this market is basically a weak market being dragged along by the euro- I think this will be a great market to short upon a move above 1.6162 - so in the window of 1.6162/1.6225 this market will turn down to 1.5700-1.5800
yen - yen is bid 118.50 and offered 120 - the buyers are longer term guys seeing this as the opportunity of a lifetime as they expect 140-150 into nov/dec this year. not only that they are happy to buy yards and yards of usd. added to that is there is absolutely no yen positive news its just pure usd weakness and safe haven flows at the moment. loads of option stops around the 118 level keeping short term specs selling. so what to expect for monday globally - 119.00-119.65 - maybe firmness in us stocks gives us a little pop up to 65 and euryen buying from topside breakout supports usdyen at the moment.
my positions are just 2 today long eur n gbp/ and gbp i cant wait for the one last rally to get a great short position established.. gl

Rivonia PipPirate 21:49 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
When Toronto Sparker whispers, few here hear, er hear here, ar what the censored......

Toronto Sparker 21:25 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
RSA abk 20:25 ...see what ya did?? now ya got me chatting...no worry..I trade a few times and be gone before ya know it.. :)))

Toronto Sparker 21:16 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
euro...gbpusd..censored that some pressurecooker...this is Sunday for me...might not be boring for a change..as ya all know..I hop on long or short..ya gotta be sleazy..LOL

Paris 21:14 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
LA BK 21:06 - Mostly true although I wouldn't go that far.... smile!

melb th 21:09 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
mpfx// good morning. Very cold breeze this morning here.

BrisbaneL 21:08 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Toronto Sparker (smiles) thats it

Toronto Sparker 21:07 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Hope you people understand that i'm not down on the likes of Q..., Gecko etc.. these are great people and if they have something to say i like...I'll add it to my analyses...in the end I hope that we will all do well because we know why we did when we did it...believe me, it's way more satisfying.. :)))

p.s. If you can't answer yourself when you ask why am I buying or selling...then go back to paper trading...

LA BK 21:06 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Totally agree with Paris 20:52; nowdays, this forum has been full of the posts that didn't even know how to talk about the market or ask the right questions.....

Melb mpfx 20:57 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
melb th // Morning th, Gee the Aussies just scraped in on the w/e, great game. Hope your air con is working today, 37 deg for the start of oz open :(( Have a good week...

Paris 20:52 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
CA Patty, I have been watching this forum for more than 2 years, have to say that this forum used to have a handful of good names/handles, I wouldn't call them gurus, but they were really good traders - professional and experienced. Too bad that we don't see them anymore or often as before....

Stockholm ZA 20:50 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
CA Patty 20:33 GMT
Any answer to this question will be of a bias nature.-> if you can trade, you will recognise them for your self.. happy trades

Melb mpfx 20:50 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Fwiw my system shows that Cable is ready to make a good move today.
Would like to see a good break above the 1.6104 level which may lead to a test of last weeks high of the 1.6160 area.
A break below 1.6076 may lead to a test of 1.6025/40 area with very good support seen below that at 1.5964
My daily pivot point is at 1.6090 and my weekly pivot at 1.6101
As usual expect very little action till London with Japan on holidays today.
These levels are all bid prices and are JMVHO....gt

Brisbane L. 20:43 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
I have been trading for 10 years and still learning, this site is the only one on the web traders can relate to with ease of access.
Trading fundamentals, I find that the technical traders on here compliment my own views enabling me to trade with profits. Its not a matter of a free ride - this is all the TV station such as CNBC Bloomsberg and the like portray, they put on their view of the markets and its up to the viewer . FX is a risky and more or less exclusive form of trading fast a furious ,having Global-View is priceless. Any recommendations on here especially by some of the more talented technical traders is a godsend , but as Sparker says one must do their own homework otherwise , you may as well take a trip to the casino. One more thing FX is a 24hrs 5-6 day a week job make no mistake. JIMHO

melb th 20:36 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Sparker and RSA// Agree with both of you. Forum is of better use if you already have a clear idea of what is likely from your own analysis. If I follow even the best forum recommendations without doing my own analysis (preferably first) then I usually get burnt, because I have no idea of timing, stops, limits and false or tenporary dips etc. Sometimes people may make a recommendation to improve their own entry position. If you cant see this is likely when you read a comment then much more practice and work is needed.
There is a difference between sharing ideas on market trends or intelligence and market tips.

CA Patty 20:33 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
I am not new to this business (12 years full time), but new to this forum, can you single out couple of gurus on this forum for me if anyone has been here long enough to know the names/handles?

RSA abk 20:25 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Sparker, thanks for your reaction, but on the other hand this forum is only of value if there is an exchange of ideas. Newbies and rookies can only learn by analyzing the guru`s viewpoints and trying to see how he has reached a certain conclusion or recommendation. I dont think anyone wants a "free ride" and most are very keen to learn from the experienced traders of which we have quite a few here, i`m grateful to say. I for one have learned more from them over the past months than I believed possible and thank them for their contributions to make this forum the best on the web. They know who they are. GL GT

Melb mpfx 20:19 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Toronto Sparker 20:01 // well said sparker. totally agree, i lost more money when i started trading stocks listening to hot tips or gossip than anything else, luckily i followed a simular path to yours and learnt to do it myself.
gt for the week.......

Toronto Sparker 20:01 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
RSA abk 19:45 ..I do this for a living...when I started I day-traded stocks..got burned good listening to others...I decided that if I was to make it in this business I had to be able to rely on myself..meaning, I had to study and work my behind off..and I did...stats will tell you that 97% of traders go broke...80% don't even learn how to analyse a chart..for those that treat this like Vegas...I'm cool with...but those with families that try this are better off getting a real job...those that know how to trade know why I say when I say it...they see the same thing...I am not here to have a rookie have a free ride..if he has talent than I am doing him or her a favor...paper trade...and if you do well..start small and don't ever be greedy...if ya make it...my hat off to you.. :)))

RSA abk 19:45 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Sparker, I`ve been watching this forum now for the past few months. U seem to enjoy playing devils advocate, but never seem to make any recommendations. How come?

Toronto Sparker 19:35 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Singapore WN 15:11 ..ok..fair enuff..make some money this week.. :)))

Toronto Sparker 19:32 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Tokyo Jon 14:19 ..hey dude..how's it hanging?..some good trading ahead of us..make the bucks and spend it on naked women.. :)))

Livingston nh 19:16 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Chicago -Irish - if you get a chance http://www.pro.gov.uk/releases/nyo2003/ni.htm

it's about the English plan for Ireland - not as good as Jonathan Swist's modest proposal but entertaining/

PA mcm 18:19 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
CNN said OPEC just agreed to raise oil production - what impact on dollar?

uk 17:42 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Hi All new to forex trading any advise wellcome.

Chicago-Irish 17:38 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Madras JJ:It was written in Dec 2002,Cape Town brought it to our attention on GVI,here is the article

Madras JJ 16:28 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
US nightmare 19:17 GMT January 10, 2003
INTERVIEW WITH DR. KURT RICHEBACHER

The article was interesting. Would you please tell when this interview took place. Without that this information could be misleading. Was that before 9/11?

Singapore WN 16:03 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Tokyo Jon 14:19 GMT - Hello Mate you set up yet ?

hk ab 15:50 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Kevin// Thanks very much!
Have you exited your cad short? I did and now long and with a s/l underneath that trade mark.
Could tell me the values of the MACD please?

helsinki iw 15:14 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htm

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm

Two articles that gives good insight into why the dollar is weakening,
without the war story. In the short run of course war news will impact
markets, but undelying currents are strong.

Singapore WN 15:14 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Toronto Sparker 13:57
Singapore WN 13:51 ... POST DELETED

So will not be seen anymore it seems ...

Singapore WN 15:11 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Toronto Sparker 13:57 - Not at all correct my friend. Friends or Foes the FX market is bigger than all of us , but I do believe that this forum offers plenty insite and all I do is offer my view.
I enjoy the imput and learn from many here .....

HK Kevin 14:36 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
HK AB, good stuffs from Shanghia bc.
Shanghai bc 02:14 GMT July 1, 2001
First, start with 20 day MA line¡¦s directional tendency, up down and sideways and decide where the market bias is at present. I explained in Help Forum before how some Yen position players use 20 day MA line in their decision making process. So, I will try in more detail how they "fine tune" their decision making process using 4 hour chart in real situation. Assuming 20 day MA is down, they will use any up stick near and around 20 day MA as a chance to short again and again until 4 hour chart shows divergence in MACD, meaning some players are taking profits and reversing their position in market flow situation. There are two ways of handling the situation, one is, if an up-signal appears in "daily candle stick chart" after 4 hour showing MACD divergence, that is usually the start of a new-mini trend but if you are more cautious person, you can wait for 4 hour chart¡¦s 20 MA crosses 50 MA to initiate your new position and sit on it. Assuming 20 day MA changes to up direction after the above in 4 hour chart change, then buy any downtick near and around 20 day MA again and again accumulating all the way until the opposite happens in 4 hour chart, i.e. MACD showing divergence and down sign in daily candle stick and 4 hour chart¡¦s 20 MA crosses 50 MA. Then reverse your position and start it in the opposite direction and sell any up stick to near and around 20 day MA again.

If you are a more nimble trader, you can use 1 hour chart using the same technique .i.e MACD divergence and 20 MA crossing 50 MA in 1 hour chart to initiate new positions, using 4 hour chart as your main directional moves similar to using daily and 4 hour chart together above. In this case using 20 MA directional bias in 4 hour chart as your main market bias like 20 day MA in daily chart. If you are a more nimble one, you can use 10 mini chart, i.e. using MACD divergence and 20 MA crossing 50 MA, using 1 hour chart as your main directional bias, again using 20 MA in 1 hour chart¡¦s direction as your market bias ..Money management must be more nimble as well if you are using these short-term charts.

Shanghai bc 01:53 GMT June 30, 2001
The easiest but still very effective way of finding the window of opportunity for entry and exit for scalpers or short-term position traders is find out a "divergence signal in MACD" in 10 min or 1 hour or 4 hour charts depending on a trader¡¦s trading time horizon and when 20 MA crosses 50 MA backed up by the MACD divergence signal, open the trade and sit on it and reverse the trade when the opposite signal appears, i.e. MACD divergence signal and 20 MA cross over 50 MA in the particular chart a trader is using, and sit on it and reverse again when the opposite signal appears.

Tokyo Jon 14:19 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Sparker, how the censored are you

Toronto Sparker 13:57 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Singapore WN 13:51 ...you sure sound like ya want to be liked...that's a shame...:))))

milan MCG 13:40 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
I have a question for all contributors.Anyone can tell me a website where is possible to see bonds ? Until end of 2002, I read www.ubs.com for this, but they decide to remove many titles due to reduce costs so that now you can find really poor informations. I am looking for a site where you can find plenty of informations if you have to invest in bonds. I mean you can decide currency, time, coupon and rating. It's not important the real time price ( can be delayed ) but have a good choice for title in different currencies. tks in advance to everybody for help

Jerusalem Serge 13:03 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Does anynody follow UsdCad. It hit support level of 1.5460 does anybody think it wise to go long now targeting 1.58

hk ab 12:37 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Someone mentioned the use of Daily MA 10 and 20. Can he/she remind me once again? TIA!

Toronto Sparker 12:31 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
KL 10:03 GMT ..you the new guru? :)))

KL 10:03 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Hi guys!
Tomorrow Monday Asian morning buy EUR/USD 1.0500 Target 1.0600!

melb th 06:40 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
http://www.abc.net.au/news/justin/nat/newsnat-12jan2003-30.htm

Does anyone like 5869 for asian session?

melb th 06:25 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Washington DC 02:07 GMT // As far USD bulls or bears, it would seem that rather than war the other 'b' factor is more significant?

Hong Kong nt 02:44 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Buying USD/CHF at 1.3750 with 100-pip stop loss looks alright

Washington DC 02:07 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Is this the fist nail in the coffin for the USD-bears? Read this:
The odds have gone down for war
Allies Slow U.S. War Plans
British and French Urge Time for Inspectors; Turkey Delays on Troops By Michael Dobbs
Washington Post Staff Writer
Over the past week, key U.S. allies have sent an unambiguous message to the Bush administration to give United Nations weapons inspectors in Iraq time to complete their work, even if it means delaying the onset of hostilities.

The allied opposition to an early war with Iraq has strengthened the hand of moderates in the administration who have been arguing against setting a firm deadline for Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to comply with demands for giving up his weapons of mass destruction, according to U.S. officials and allied diplomats. According to these sources, the odds of a February war appear to be receding, barring a major Iraqi misstep that would galvanize Western governments and public opinion. "The odds have gone down for war," said a well-placed U.S. official. Washintonpost.com


Toronto Sparker 00:26 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
Whispers of usd gonna be driven up next week...love the action either way...this is a traders market right now...bit of heaven really..LOLOL...

TH, Sattahip BW 00:08 GMT January 12, 2003 Reply   
IMHO,

longing any xxxChf pair right now is a bad idea.
If any conflict with Iraq or Palestine rears it's ugly head, people will be offloading their USD into CHF.
That's why it's at such a low now.

 




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