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Forex Forum Archive for 01/19/2003

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Welkom.SA j.w. 23:52 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Stockholm Za,
I am new to the forum ,but not new to fx trading. Would you be willing to share your maths. analysis. ?

Bucharest Mihai 23:47 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Stockholm za // ok. i am using maths tools while intraday signaling quite extensively, great completion for the elliotts actually. [GT]

Welkom.SA j.w. 23:38 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Good day to the forum, may i submit a joke?

Stockholm za 23:24 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Bucharest Mihai :::> Like i said, I do not use Elliot and is no expert in that field, it was just a simple observation, I will stick to my good old trusted mathamatical model....... However::::>Thank you very much for your views it was well Appreciated .... Happy trades.

London LHR 23:23 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
OZ// The police arrest a guy and take him to the police station. On entering the interrogation room, he sees a dice on the table and asks the policeman what the dice is all about? The policeman says to the guy that he gets to throw the dice.And?, the guy says. Policeman says to the guy that if he throws a 1, 2, 3, 4 or a 5, they're going to beat the crap out of him. And what if I throw a 6? Easy, you get to throw again.
In a way, thats what the forex market does to us!
Good trades everybody.

Melb RS 23:20 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Slow start to the day...if anything have seen good EURYEN demand from the word go. Triggered weak stops USDJPY thru 00-10 earlier and expect there to be further fixing demand in Tokyo.

OZ deanobravo 23:19 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
what about the horse that walked into the pub...

barman says

wait for it...

why the long face?

Rye, NY et 23:14 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
OZ: here's a joke........................
A stock investor and a forex trader were hiking in the mountains. Suddenly, a bear appeared and began to chase them. As they were running, the forex trader stopped, pulled off his backpack and began to change out of his hicking boots and into his running shoes. The stock investor screamed, "Are you crazy? You can't outrun a BEAR!"
The trader calmly replied, "I don't have to outrun a bear; I only have to outrun you."

Rome Tony 23:14 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
take this joke : once a man was drinking milk then he suddenly died , WHY ?

The cow sat on him .

Toronto VY 23:10 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
CAD,is anybody see "buy" on closing higher that hammer body on 17.01.03?Esp.leaving rate unchanged on 21th by BOC.

hk ab 23:07 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Morning Deano// will see you an hr later.
Seems cad again becomes the leader pair.

OZ deanobravo 23:06 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
nyk holiday today, so looks like a quiet one..anyone got any jokes

Rome Tony 23:03 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
it seems that everybody is still sleeping here !!!

hk ab 22:49 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
viies and Raden. Do you see all the fishes have come to your side? I would expect to see the exhaustive rocket soon.

Berkeley AG 22:34 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Closed my short position on the GBP/USD. Now, considering to buy at 1.6120 area. t/P at 1.6180 and stop order 1.6090.
Bought USD/JPY at 117.75. T/P at 118.30.

Rome Tony 22:25 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
it was posted in Bloomberg and still is there

Gold Coast th 22:22 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Toronto BA Very smart move using mini..

Bucharest Mihai 22:19 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Rome Tony / would hardly buy the story, yet thinking that lately cable did much in certain ways benefit from a rising interest rates differential, essentially one should consider any rates cut made by the BOE will surely damage the latest elevation you saw on the pair.
but just as in the euro nowadays case, uptrend on cable is displaying certain exhaustion currently on charts, and it would not take a rate cut for the pair to soon giving up some of the recent gains...

fairfield jsh 22:18 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Rome Tony...

FWIW...I believe BofE had a rates announcement just last week and decided to stay unchanged at I can't see them making another announcement for at least a few months....

Rome Tony 22:08 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Some financial site posted that (Bank of England May Cut Interest Rates Half a Point ) so can anyone please tell if this happend how would effect on GBP against USD. TIA

Bucharest Mihai 21:46 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Timisoara AR / only English. and only Jay can give you my address (you have a 'contact us' button right at your right side of the page).
anyway, i am (still) writing regular adds for kmarket, you may find some for the weekends thereby too.

Lahore Rrb 21:41 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
On Tuesday, Housing Starts for December are expected at 1.66mln units versus the previous 1.70mln units.

On Wednesday, Treasury Budget for December is expected at $4bln versus the previous $26.6bln.

On Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims are expected at 400,000 versus the previous 360,000. Leading Economic Indicators for December is expected to decline (0.1%) versus the previous 0.7%.

Timisoara AR 21:39 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Mihai>>Hello,I am from Timisoara.Can we talk romanian here? :) If no,if you like you can give me your email adress and I'll write to you.

melbourne bigal 21:35 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
USA: try swiss post (do a google search on "swiss post"), or try HSBC offshore account.

Philly brm 20:56 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
how about gbp/$ - 4 hr and 8 hr charts just had a pos MA crossover last Thursday - usually a good long term buy signal with trouble below at 1.6069.

Philly brm 20:56 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
how about gbp/$ - 4 hr and 8 hr charts just had a pos MA crossover last Thursday - usually a good long term buy signal with trouble below at 1.6069.

Toronto BA 20:53 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
A comment from a beginner-
Well I started trading Forex last week, was up at first then got severe damage to my mini account when the news of Iraq empty warheads made the eurusd pair fly-
No stop in place- This week I will play with the trend I guess, -

That way if I am wrong short term, I will wait it out-

Just lost $250.00 so it wasn't too expensive a lesson!!!!

Melb mpfx 20:28 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Just a few comments on Eur/$$ daily chart.
Eur is still in a bullish upward channel, top channel start at 17-09-2001, touching 19-07-2002 high and projected through comes in at present at around 1.0750.
Main Bottom channel start 28-03-2002, touching 21-10-2002 and again in nov projects through to present at around the 1.0100 area.
Now to me markets dont come this close without testing marjor lines and 1.0750 is within 75 pips of fridays high.
For today my mathematical model has following levels
Negative Below 1.0588
Pivot 1.0624
Positive Above 1.0660
A possible entry level for longs @ 1.0625/30 area but chart confirmation will be needed if levels seen.
Should be an interesting week..

Hong Kong AB 19:44 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
John, above 1.5440-80 band, I expect to see 1.5750 to short.

Porto PJT 19:40 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   

Porto PJT 19:38 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   

Porto PJT 19:37 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Provo John, you have antecipated the donwtrend, well done, i will try to catch the donwtrend above 54 to use a stop around gt.

Porto PJT 19:37 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Provo John, you have antecipated the donwtrend, well done, i will try to catch the donwtrend above 54 to use a stop around gt.

London PL 19:24 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
10 good reasons to sell usd !

1) Uncertainty in middle east is still rising.
2) CNN effect will not help the US comsumer spending (glued to TV not in shops spending)
3) Oil price increase will somehow reduce the likelyhood of a quick rebound of the US economy
4) Company earning are better in usd but this is diue to cost cutting and laying off of peolple. So it will not contribute to deomestic growth
5)US Currenct account is ever widening
6) Real money investor (i.e asset managers) are only small overweight USd to about 3% median. Historically devation from benchmark of 15% have been seen, they still have a lot of room to sell dollar.
7)US equity risk is too much volatility not enough return in european benchmark ==> underweight us equity ==>sell usd
8) hedging policiy of global equity european mandate is changing from unhedged policy to fully hedge. It therefore means that these funds will buy llarge amount of eruo outright.
9)us rate two low to be attractive
10)the chart does not stop at the bottom of the page for the us index !!!

USA 18:13 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
I would like to limit the effect of the falling dollar on my cash savings, but I do not want to get into trading. More specifically, I do not want to begin operating on margin.

How does an ordinary person with "ordinary person" amounts of money go about getting an account in Euro or CHF?


sa al 17:35 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   

Lisbon jv 15:57 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   

Bucharest Mihai 13:38 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
beijing road / currently running a signaling service, web site will be ready until March 1st, some guys are presently working on it.
when it is ready, i will announce. GT

beijing road 13:23 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
to Mihai£» Do you have web site?

hk revdax 12:50 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
anyang EUR//I am with you...

Bucharest Mihai 12:48 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
please sorry length of my previous messages, and kindly ask Jay for my email address in case you need some rethoric charts attached too.
wise trading next week!

Bucharest Mihai 12:46 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
With eventually final zoom of those mentioned, on 4hrs charts we may be currently riding an extended third, or even a fifth of V of C of large wave 4 (again, alike notations stand as long as assuming we have a still valid grand bearish market on the euro – yet, otherwise picture on shorter-term frames do not change essentially). Within that whole short-term impulse started at 9685 (wave 2’ did retrace exactly .618 of wave 1’), I had been wondering whether recent sideways picture in between 1.0500 and 1.0330/360 did reflect developing of 4’ (also, retracing slightly bit more than .236 of 3’) – maybe it did, maybe it did not. Anyway, trendline resistance of this whole actionary movement had been already breached, so I would further stay tuned related to low up to mid 1.0700s for me to see whole puzzle much clearer.

Been aware also of so many people staring at 1.1-1.2 in their dreams – but am I asking again that thru whole this bullish air, are we supposed to be riding a bottom…? Or rather a top?
Words poorly count at this stage I guess, yet maths does. We have technical exhaustion at present levels of the upmove channeling, doesn’t even matter which of the midterm frames one would choose to stare at.

And I say: let us examine a bit behaviour of the crosses just as well. Both eurgbp and euryen are displaying some corrective processes in current developing on weekly charts, both (so far) simple triangular wedges. Not mentioning those negative divergences, much clear on eurgbp, and crying-out relevance alike in RSI10 on weeklies in euryen too. If things really stand that way on crosses, means we are thereby now completing wave E in much probable ABCDE structure (breaching weekly trendline resistance of the alike mentioned wedge, action maybe contained in the whole menu on near-term), everafter a more serious negative correction would only follow thru.

Bucharest Mihai 12:39 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Anyway – recently I had acknowledged a new introduction to counting waves on larger pictures, and I must admit I did not pay much attention in the first place. The vision says we had already had a terminated (negative) impulsive affair on euro thru downslope from 1.18something towards notorious 8225, while from the latter point we have started a new (positive this time) impulse, - currently in V of 3 (prefered), or even terminal wave 5 within an already almost finished impulse (wave 1 started at 8225, wave 3 did at 8563, in between registered clear, time-wasting ABC correction – view not prefered, especially because guideline of alternation in the corrective patterns is seriously breached).

Let us stare again at C within expanded flat correction framed by large wave 4 is a five, and you should go zoom that on a daily (move in between 8350 and 1.0700). An Elliott manual image – what may I add…? II retraced slightly more than .618 of wave I thru advanced move against the initial positive trend (double zig-zag, much seemingly), while IV did mark a rather horizontal correction, lot time consuming and lot more complex wedge.
Trendline resistance of the whole foundation (uniting end of wave I with end of wave III) gives close to 1.0715 ultimate verdict currently, and that may be nice risk/reward companion for a counter-trend, positional seller. In case grand bearish market idea stands, then negative correction on mid/long-term will be significant in amplitude, to encountering objective of designing large wave 5 on weeklies. But just in the situation we had figured it out wrong in the first place, then correction would be lot more modest (decent price-objectiv would be .382 of the whole impulse started nearby 8350, namely around 9800, reaching it thru sideways picture after all).

Bucharest Mihai 12:35 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Stockholm za 17:19 GMT January 18 // On euro – let us take it easy. Would not engage lot of lines on charts, because I am still not much of a fan of thous of trendlines displayed on my maps. Nor of thous of channels either.
I would essentially refer once more to elliott ways of counting the images, and only in part to maths studies currently witnessed on various time-frames.
From your message, you already got the old idea of old grand bearish euro market, currently trading a peculiar corrective process – most probably, an expanded flat correction (simply structured ABC, but A and B are threes, while C is five). More precisely, we are now riding V of C of large wave 4.
Now, I well know there happens for large wave 4 to have already been overlapping large wave 1 on both ‘candles’ and ‘line’ charting formats, but also fact (as someone here on page earlier on suggested) that monthly or even weekly charts are rather deceptive in offering us precise data belonging to moments met in time 5 years ago. And since – as we’ll see later – we have an important capping trendline resistance (signing in for C arm of large wave 4, within the expanded flat correction) somewhere in the 700s area, I am ready to skip that overlapping for the time being, and to personally declare that currently advertised vision as still valid.

St.-Petersburg Demiurg 11:42 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
anyang: Mabe You are right, but Please prove your point of view :)

anyang EUR 11:23 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Tomorrow, EUR will go down, do you think it is right or not ?

St.-Petersburg Demiurg 11:10 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Athens mk: Probably I will take a risk and buy :)

Mabe I will try tomorrow to catch about 20 pips (1.0670-1.0690) and bet 1/3 of my deposit :)

Athens mk 10:51 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
St.-Petersburg Demiurg: I would like to know that as well. The way I've heard it if 1.07 is breached there is a good likelyhood for a run up to 1.10. If the Euro/$ reverses below 1.0550 there is an expectation that the run will go down to 1.03. Question is, which way? :)

St.-Petersburg Demiurg 10:07 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Hi everebody!

What do you think about $EUR on 20.012003?
Is it likly EUR is going to test 1.07?
I am not sure, but it can be correction - cause I know a lot of people who desire to sel EUR and enjoy their great profit.
More to say, the economic situation in Germany is far from being stable recently.

In another hand, US policy coserning Iraq will press USD down.

And the last qwestion - how the holliday in US will affect the $EUR?

What do you think?

Rome Tony 07:52 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Some financial site posted that (Bank of England May Cut Interest Rates Half a Point ) so can anyone please tell if this happend how would effect on GBP against USD. TIA

nyc 05:43 GMT January 19, 2003 Reply   
Powell - Iraq Failing To Comply With UN Resolution-German Paper


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