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Forex Forum Archive for 03/1/2003

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Lahore Rrb 20:32 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
Monterrey Niman10-1 20:20
Everyone believes that

Monterrey Niman10-1 20:20 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
hk revdax 04:19 GMT March 1, 2003
London//Your 03:08 post. That is why 'a regime change' does not come without a cost. It is very easy for the video war game lovers to talk about an enlightening change in the police state of IRAQ while it is something else when it comes to decide WHO will foot the bill in terms of human costs.
-------------
Lets do an excercise on how this could be financed while considering Bush's intention to "stay around a minumum, a minumum, of 5 years"

Iraq oil production = 2.5M barrels/day
5 years = 1825 days
1 barrel = $30?
5y total = $136 billion ... a good start, huh?

(im not saying thats it, in fact i am more like asking if anyone considers this plausible).

Athens 19:40 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
Spotforex NY 19:13, forgetting for a while that as Forex traders we should always be realistic and down-to-earth, as a human being I am very disappointed. Cruel dictators rule many countries, massacres of innocent people take place on a daily basis and those poor souls are hopeless unless the UN and the so called "great powers" have the power and the will to intervene beyond interests. Selecting this as a target and leaving that alone to accomplish his genocides is not the way to go. I have lost confidence in my Europe since this continent is deep in its sins on crimes against humanity and is only capable of "armchair political philosophy". The US as a relatively new power, actually the only super power in our days, could be the only one to lead this world into a bright new future by holding onto its founding principles. it could have no need of the UN Security Council but it could undoubtedly have the UN General Assembly backing her on any just causes brought forward for a vote. Only then we could have a world which would isolate and punish feudal states and blood thirsty dictators. However, our times show that the US is following the same path that Britain, France and other powers of the past had followed. I am sorry for all this rambling but sometimes even we, traders, need to leave aside the currencies and think about the world around us and even more about the world our children will live in.

Pecs Andras 19:16 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
Maybe I am too ignorant of what drives fx traders in their dealing, but I just cannot understand why it is better to hold ANYTHING but USD in times of a possible war. On Friday evening every single currency, except for cable, was bought agins the dollar. Why are you better of having CAD or AUD or whatever if war breaks out? What do you gain by it? And since USD was SOLD against all these currencies, there were, obviously BUYERS of USD. What do they expect once the picture is clear (war or no war).
It beats me...
In the last too weeks we have been having relatively good US economic data, and awful Japanese, EU and Canadian data... Nobody seems to care about that...

Spotforex NY 19:13 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
Athens 09:27 - Thank for for that insight...it bothers me a great deal about the "selectiveness" of the concern to help....It seems that the US is not concerned about life - but its political interest...Look at how Africa is ignored (at all cost) and the brutality of many governments there....selected selction prcess on our part. A true shame....

Athens 19:05 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
The knife-edge vote is a massive blow for the four-month-old Turkish Government which has a massive majority in parliament. But it is in accord with overwhelming popular disapproval of a war against Iraq. Opinion polls show that 80% of Turks are opposed to the war. BBC

Va Raven 18:18 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
Right, NH. just read the piece on DJ....

Livingston nh 18:09 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
Raven -something about abstentions and new vote on the 4th -- dragging this out will affect trading more than UN vote

Livingston nh 18:09 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
Raven -something about abstentions and new vote on the 4th -- dragging this out will affect trading more than UN vote

Va Raven 18:06 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
NH, 264:251. very close, failed?

Livingston nh 17:58 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
Raven - the vote in Turkey was 264 - 250 in favor but BBC says it failed ??

Va Raven 17:44 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
Iraq's ambassador to UN just said that "there is no chance that Saddam mght resign". CNN

HK 17:41 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
London 6:15, if (a high probability) saddem is a sadist, who, in the first place, made him such a mighty powerful sadist?

Va Raven 17:37 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
Now Turkish Parliament approves US troop deployment....

Va Raven 17:15 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
As to why US wants this war or change that regime and if it's justified or not, that's a seperate issue as far as a trader is concerned. Your "right" political opinion doesn't mean you have a right/profitable trade. We care what will happen more than whether it should happen or not.

Va Raven 17:03 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
You know David Letterman often makes some senseless jokes on his Late Show and I bet he doesn't bother to read anything seriously. But the day before he got sick again last week, he made a joke which accidentally touched a very key issue in this Iraq crisis; "Well, one thing I don't really understand is that why he (Bush) needs UN vote to attack Iraq since he didn't need Americans' votes to become the President of United States?"
Gentlemen, the war is inevitable unless 1) Saddam steps down as UAE called today within 14 days or 2) UN changes its stance to support US action. Obviously, both are highly unlikely.
US has put nearly 1/4 million armed force in Gulf including 6 Aircraft carriers, 2 thousand fight jets, now the unit 101 is in position too (that unit never returned with loaded guns in history). The force built there hasn't been seen since WWII. Is that all for the missles that Saddam is destroying now? Obviously, Bush, for whatever the reasons, has put the US into a "point of no return" position. The more anti-war voices from UN, the firmer that Bush is to have this war - no war means US lost the war. Maybe even worse from the long run in terms of the "new" image of US and its future role in this confused world. Don't mention that a high possibility of losing his presidential status even before an attempt to the second term that Bush is dreaming for....
As a trader, while holding our different political opinions, should really prepare to trade a market in a war time; sell or buy dollar is more realistic than talking or speculating if there is a war or not.
Bush wants Saddam out (or more diplomatically "regime change") while Saddam is not to step down without a fight. both are rigid and determined, what else can we expect other than a war? I don't like any war, just like I don't like to lose money in FX trading, but that's beyond my wishes and hopes. I have to prepare for the erality.

hk revdax 15:10 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
Athens//Thank you for showing us the website.

"Robertson's argument argues that Britain, along with the US, refused to allow a major UN expedition force into Rwanda to stop the massacre is not new."

And he goes on to suggest that there was a 'racist tone' in such a decision.

When both the US and GB refused to allow a rescue operation from the UN, these two governments made a decision to commit murder. That is to say, the governments of the US and GB should be found guilty of having committed the murder.
On that basis, the government of GB and that of the US _at that time_ should be placed on the same moral plarform as that of the current Saddam government.

Athens 14:25 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
London 12:44-- Saddam and Hitler, yes, I agree, butchers of humanity. Stop such attrocities through international intervention? sure I agree if such action is backed by the UN. But why only those and not other monsters and on what criteria should such selective action be undertaken or rejected?/// A Top Queen's Counsel has accused the immediate former Conservative government in the UK of not only failing to act over the genocide in Rwanda in 1994, but of playing a leading role in stopping calls for a UN intervention force in the Security Council. LINK




London 12:44 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
hk revdax this is the worry, however, Saddam has already Slaughtered millions of his own people and is still doing it,however because it is behind closed doors the rest of the World turns a blind eye, even the Celebrities are now getting in on the act with not the slightess knowledge of what they are talking about. I see many exiled Iraq's just wishing they could get their country back running again without the Dictator Sadam controlling the business communities every move. They are said to be the Richest of all the oil nations, however why are the people so poor , why because Sadam directs it into Terrorism and promoting mayhem throughout the region. The world cannot just turn a blind eye as they did with Hitler in the 1930's only to be aware afterwards of the atrocities he had been committing years later. It will be too late to say sorry once a dirty bomb has taken away New York, London, Madrid or I could say Paris but doubt this will be a target as they are involved with oil deals to critise the regime . ( Those who remember WW2 they wait till the firing starts and then decide which side to join - depending on who is winning. JIMHO

San Juan Lil 12:23 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
An MOF source said he had the impression that upward market pressure on the yen had strengthened since mid-February.

Dealers said intervention appeared to be conducted in such a way as to prevent the yen rising beyond technically important points at 116.82 yen against the dollar and 126 yen against the euro, as the yen's rise was expected pick up speed if those levels were broken.

"Although the yen is the weakest fundamentally, the market wants to sell the dollar as geopolitical worries and fading confidence in the U.S. economy are putting big pressure on the dollar," a senior fund manager at a Japanese bank said.

"Without fresh policies in conjunction with the intervention, such as further monetary easing, I don't think the Japanese authorities can really alter the present downward trend of the dollar against the yen," the fund manager said.

--------

"This is the second time they said they were intervening so it's not a surprise any more," said Junya Tanase, global markets officer at J.P. Morgan Chase.

"Intervention is losing its effect on the market."

San Juan Lil 12:04 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
Next week investors will be faced with a plethora of economic data and important central bank meetings where interest rate policies could be changed.

A Reuters poll showed 20 of 22 economists expect the European Central Bank is going to cut its benchmark interest rate from 2.75 percent on March 6.

Another poll shows 20 economists surveyed expect the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75 percent.

The consensus among economists with regard to the Bank of Canada is more evenly split, with five of 13 expecting a rate increase while eight expect no change to the 2.75 percent overnight rate.

In Australia, a survey of 21 economists gave only a 10 percent median chance the central bank would move its cash rate from 4.75 percent.

Economists expect a report on Monday to show U.S. manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in February, with the Institute for Supply Management's index falling to 52.4 from 53.9 in January.

The Reuters euro zone purchasing managers index is expected to show contraction in manufacturing slowed slightly, to 49.5 in February from 49.3 in January.

Readings above 50 indicate growth in activity while readings below denote contraction.

Economic data will likely continue to be overshadowed by developments in Iraq and keep the dollar in a tight range against the euro and yen.

Athens 10:56 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
...and even these days, it has become a matter of who will slaughter the Kurds, the "bad guy" or the "good guys". The former is called a massacre, the latter is called a pre-emptive operation against terrorists (not by the US in this case but by the valued ally). Either case the Kurds will be massacred and this is what finally counts for me.

Athens 09:27 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
What a hypocricy...Some people seem to care very much about the Kurds now but they didn't care at all back THEN. And it WILL HAPPEN AGAIN in the nexy few days.

Helsinki iw 08:32 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
Fwiw/ EUR/USD closed at the high of the day Friday, which is
usually an exhaustive move and warns of a change in direc-
tion. With the trend being mostly sideways, perhaps that is
of less importance this time however. Have a good week-end
all.

hk revdax 08:26 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
London//Your 06:15 post. I 100% agree with you that Saddam is a bast*ard that should be removed. And i think most people in Iraq and many of his neighbors want him to go too. I was simply concerned with the human costs involved in having that guy removed. Let us hope that it be kept at the minimum.

London 06:15 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
hk revdax I will stick my neck out to say that once Saddam is removed , all the people who were said to be defending him will come out of the woodwork saying what a bastard he has been , even the other Arabs will give a sigh of relief - The man is a saddist Killing millions of his own people, problem is no one is brave enough to stand up to him
Bush is getting it in the neck because he has the guts to do something, all I can say thank God for the Bush's and Blairs of this world.

hk revdax 04:19 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
London//Your 03:08 post. That is why 'a regime change' does not come without a cost. It is very easy for the video war game lovers to talk about an enlightening change in the police state of IRAQ while it is something else when it comes to decide WHO will foot the bill in terms of human costs.

tokyo k 04:07 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
memphis//sure,the world would be a better place now if saddam was not brought up by bush people.

Toronto Sparker 03:39 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
...Yawn...war a done deal...will feed interesting action...sigh...just look at how Gold made us all happy...we're not here to judge ..nor take sides...from a trading point of view one must act and stay objective...personally though...I pray each day that all can be solved in peace....besides, those nutty N-Koreans scare the sheet out of me much more than anything...LOL.. :((((

Sydney 03:14 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
Global sea change in sentiment underpins currency
One problem with explaining the rise of the $A on its good "fundamentals" is that these fundamentals have been around a long time. The $A is not rising because of these factors per se, but rather because the world has changed in ways that now make these factors more important to global players. We haven't changed, but the rest of the world has -High interest rates? We had them for a while, but few cared as the focus was on riding the bull market in global equities. Strong growth in China? That has been true for years. Higher commodity prices? Outside of gold and oil, the rises are modest - and should be no surprise, given the weakness in global growth. Even Australia's rising terms of trade have been quietly under way for the past four years.

What it is even more surprising is that conventional fundamentals, if anything, have weakened in recent months and, by all accounts, should have brought the $A to its knees. War in Iraq, and possibly North Korea? More weakening in the US and European growth outlook, and signs our own economy is starting to slow? What then has changed? First, global investors have reduced their reliance on equities to generate healthy returns, and now see merit in the less sexy - but more dependable - interest rate returns.

Second, global investors have finally given up on the US as a source of investment returns overall.

Third, the US seems to have lost its haven status.
AFR

London 03:08 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
We will gas you when US bombs fall, Kurds told


If war comes to Iraq, the Kurds of Kifri will be right in the line of fire. Iraqi officials have threatened that the moment the first American bomb lands, they will reply with a chemical assault on the town
LINK

London 03:08 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
We will gas you when US bombs fall, Kurds told


If war comes to Iraq, the Kurds of Kifri will be right in the line of fire. Iraqi officials have threatened that the moment the first American bomb lands, they will reply with a chemical assault on the town

hk revdax 02:49 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
I agree, but only partially, to what Chretien said:"He(Saddam) has to pile up that stuff (weapons) in the middle of the street and blow it up and that will be the end of it."

It will be the "end of it" ONLY IF what Saddam will do afterwards is in line with the US national interests in that part of the world. Otherwise, another attempt at 'regime change' will be in the making....imv

hk revdax 02:44 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
Memphis Charles//Great comments _on hindsight_! Would the world be better off if Queen Victoria had been removed by force? After all, she was the largest opium smuggler the world has ever known? But who might have come after QV would have been a bigger thug too. Thus the change is not the change of a certain individual but the change of a SYSTEM. A nation should be governed by a SYSTEM but not by a SINGLE MAN. That, i believe, was what the Cold War was all about.

The only people that could make Bush do anything are the Americans. We as foreginers are better off seating back and chewing Big Mac...

Chicago 02:33 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
Memphis Charles >Great!

Memphis Charles 02:18 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
is should be if.

Memphis Charles 02:18 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
Would the world have been a better place is Hitler had been preemptively removed?

I think so.

Athens 00:49 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
Re DJ 00:27, any similarity of thoughts is only coincidental and certainly not the result of any prior discussion with the Canadian PM :) I am quoting from the political forum:
Athens 14:44 GMT February 28, 2003
While I still and will always oppose the pre-emptive strike doctrine I can see some of the arguments, however I will certinly never accept the intereferenc of any country, direct or indirect, in anothr soverign country's domestic affairs with the aim of changing its regime. That goes for any "great power" and not just for the US.

I wouldn't have posted this here during trading hours but as the market is now closed for the week I guess it doesn't interrupt the market flow. Have a nice weekend everyone.

DJ 00:27 GMT March 1, 2003 Reply   
DJ. Canada PM: US Bid For Iraq Regime Change Not In UN Plans


MEXICO CITY (CP)--The U.S. is heading down a dangerous road that leads away
from the U.N. by demanding that Iraq change its president, Prime Minister Jean
Chretien said Friday.

The concept of "regime change," as stated by the White House, is a dangerous
one that doesn't fit with U.N. resolution 1441, Chretien said as he wrapped up
a state visit to Mexico.

And he wondered who would be next on the U.S. list of unpopular leaders and
where it would all stop.

"If it is a changing of regime, it's not what is 1441," Chretien said
following reports that Washington wants not only disarmament, but also a new
president in Iraq.

"And if you start changing regimes, where do you stop?," a charged-up
Chretien asked during a news conference.

"This is the problem, who is next? Give me the list, the priority list."

The idea of removing Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from office is not part
of U.N. resolution 1441, which requires Iraq to eliminate any biological,
chemical and nuclear weapons in its possession.

Chretien said the disarmament of Iraq is the key issue.

"The official policy is the disarmament of Saddam Hussein," the prime
minister said in French.

"I'm surprised to hear now we want to get rid of Saddam Hussein; it's a
change of regime. And as far as I am concerned, I believe these are very severe
consequences because of change of regime."

Chretien's strong statement came in response to a question about remarks made
in Washington earlier Friday by White House spokesman Ari Fleischer.

Asked by a reporter whether U.S. President George W. Bush wants both the
disarmament of Iraq and exile for Saddam, Fleischer replied "it's disarmament
and regime change."

The U.S. administration has stated since last year that it wants to see a new
leader in Baghdad.

But calls for regime change were toned down after Washington decided last
fall to seek UN approval before taking military action against Iraq.

"I'm OK, I only have 11 months to go," Chretien said, referring to his plans
to step down. "But how about somebody else? So this is a very dangerous
concept."

Chretien spoke Friday with both British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Chilean
President Ricardo Lagos about a Canadian notion to try to break a logjam at the
U.N. Security council on Iraq.

Canada has proposed a compromise position that sets benchmarks for Saddam to
follow and calls on the U.N. to give Iraq a March 28 deadline to disarm or face
war.

He has won some limited support during his three-day visit to Mexico City,
where President Vicente Fox said he found at least part of the proposal "very
interesting."

A similar endorsement came from Chile, which - like Mexico - is a member of
the Security Council and has thus come under a great deal of lobbying to choose
sides.

The Canadian proposal is designed as a bridge between the U.S. - supported by
Britain and Spain - which has put forward a new resolution declaring that Iraq
has failed to fully disarm, opening the way for military action.

The proposal is opposed by France, Germany and Russia, which proposed an
alternate plan calling for further weapons inspections to keep the Iraqi
government in check.

The Security Council is currently divided over the matter.

Chretien said Blair shares his concern that action against Iraq outside the
U.N. could undermine the credibility of the world body.

"The problem is the preoccupation that he has and I have, what will be the
consequences on the UN if there is an activity outside of the UN," he said. "He
has concern...and I'm sure the president of the United States is concerned,
too."

But the final answer rests with Saddam, who still has a choice to avoid war
by destroying his weapons, Chretien said.

"The guy who has the key to (the) solution is Saddam Hussein," said Chretien.


"He has to pile up that stuff (weapons) in the middle of the street and blow
it up and that will be the end of it."



 




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