Forex Forum Archive for 01/05/2004

Tasmania 23:54 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
WestLB technical analyst Brenda Sullivan says
Though gold is above 420, she recommends looking to sell break downs. Says sell on break below 411.80 for move to 406.90, then 402.70. Place stop-loss 416.45
AP

melbourne farmacia 23:27 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 23:17 GMT January 5, 2004
Morning ab - can i send you my Usd/CAD chart regarding your long last night ?

Toronto De Novo 23:24 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Eurusd still has strength on the upside though on an overbought situation. It seems the third leg isn't done yet. Although showing some signs of divergence. Can anyone give something about this pair. Market is done with all the fundamentals.

melbourne farmacia 23:23 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Need to run new Gbp/Usd numbers today as yesterdays levels hit sooner than expected.
melbourne farmacia 00:21 GMT January 5, 2004
Well at least when the Dollar comes back, she'll come back hard and fast.
Gbp/Usd should complete the next minor cycle around 1.7979. From my daily reading, gbp's longer term cycle should finish at 1.8103 as long as 1.7515 supports.

hk ab 0.88 23:17 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
mkt scenario simulates

Once upon, we have to sell eur to hedge the investment in Eu areas. I still freshly remember the days when eur dived from .9 to .85 in a day or two.

Now, we have to sell USD to hedge the investment in US.......

usa ez 23:13 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
192.00 already geesh!!! OUT HALF still a load of lots fwiw

USA EZ 23:08 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Gbp/yen as usual on intervention by saki drinkers.+++++++

as i always post...ck last 2 sessions .. it's not done yet


they talk of the usd failing hohoo.ho..REtructure of euro starts this year or else....

there's your currency failure..

Tasmania 23:07 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Re: Earlier post - Australia has no sign of inflation however, the RBA have swiftly raised rates this year to curb spending and housing bubble , the USA are far heavily debted and my view is that that will be the catalyst for a rate rise this year the same with the UK , on a visit this year people use their credit cards to live off , surely a recipe for trouble . There is no inflation in the World , but perceived wealth is a danger

Tasmania 21:35 GMT January 5, 2004

brisbane sunstate 23:02 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Bangalore 22:53 GMT
one brazilian real buys aprox, 15.8295 rupees

melb th 23:02 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Tas. Which side of the Oatlands (Mason-Dixon) line are you based?

Tasmania 22:59 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
melb th think that is following many a view at present but as with prior to xmas the dip against the USD came earlier than most were expecting - many analysts had forecast 110 euro for xmas Barclays International for one also BNP Hans Redecker - the funds tend to take profits at unexpect time to catch the market out it seems.

Bangalore 22:53 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
What is the value of a brazilian real when converted into indian rupees?

melb th 22:46 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Tas. They make a lot of long term structural problems with US economy and predict falling USD for a few weeks then a modest spike coincident with G7 period roughly. They envision 2004 largely a period of consolidation at current ranges.
With the recent US treasury bond schedule (28 of 37bn new long term debt) I wonder if fed might have other ideas?

Sydney Ge11Ja 22:39 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
FWIW Im hearing of some barrier interest in AUD at 0.7700

Tasmania 22:39 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Sexybank

Tasmania 22:38 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Also censored view today


EUR/USD - the currency pauses at just below 1.2700 after rising in Asia in the wake of Fed Governor Bernanke statement that the risk of a dollar crisis is "quite low'' and that valuing the currency only against the euro may be "misleading.'' As we said earlier, the currency is approaching levels which may preclude further declines to the low 1.2500s. Specifically, if the single currency goes above 1.2700, it would be wishful thinking to see the area of 1.2500 - 1.2470 again, much less 1.2350. Rallies in a 3rd wave environment move like quicksilver, so sometimes it is difficult to time the corrections. And this may be one of those times. So to sum it up, we will hold on to the scenario of declines to 1.2500, but will let go of it if the currency rallies above 1.2700, which incidentally also confirms further upmove to at least 1.2850. And as we said on Friday, we now factor in 1.3000 as probable target.
Recommendations:
Stand aside.

Tasmania 22:35 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
melb th It says virus on some kind so wont download
can you give us an idea of what they are saying thanks

CAIRO AG 22:33 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Sorry... that was addressed to Mel//Th.

Tasmania 22:28 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Howard hints at October election
Prime Minister John Howard has hinted the Federal Government might be busy fighting an election campaign in October

melb th 22:18 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
I wonder if anyone has had a chance to look at Outlook 2004 from s*a*x*obank. Would be interested in comments. They seem to be suggesting possibility of some shift in attitude by G7 as referred to by earlier.

Tasmania 22:13 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy to each his own

USA Biscuit Boy 22:10 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
What's new Tas? Instead of taking advantage of the super low interest rates and paying down their debt everyone is driving around in brand new cars and trucks and sipping on $5 lattes LMAO.

But that is what bankruptcy laws are for. censored its practically a tradition in the US to spend til ya can spend no more then throw the towel in and file Chapter 13 and start again and do the same in 10 more years. Its a lot more fun than working your guts out and saving eh?

Memphis Charles 22:09 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Yippee .... Joe Wade of AIS ... don't know Joe, but I know AIS.

Memphis Charles 22:08 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Belden, MS.... neat. My family is from Clarksdale and Marks.

belden mb 22:05 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
memphis charles: I am not far from you...just outside of tupelo miss. we have 2 of the same interest ie. woodshop and forex

Tasmania 22:00 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
The G-7 summit scheduled for Feb. 6-7 will be held in Boca Raton Florida.Focus will be on intermittent talk that some
officials are not happy with the USD decline. However, aside from Japan,comments from EU's Prodi today, and recent from Fed officials, suggest that officials continue to take a sanguine approach and that the USD move only
fulfills the objectives of the G7 agreement in September
section from Ifr

Wouldnt go short Dollar into meeting , one never can trust Central Banks - dont think they lke the Fx traders very much anyway.

Memphis Charles 21:59 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Yes, it is...

belden mb 21:54 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
memphis charles--is that memphis tenn. ?

Tor Pumpkin 21:54 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
ACK! It all started with their wedding!!!!

Memphis Charles 21:50 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Oh, you little devil you.

Ltn th 21:38 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Tas welcome to forum.

Tasmania 21:35 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Americans build mountain of debt, savings rate slides
For Bruce and Lorraine Esbensen, a couple living in Pennsylvania, trouble started when they spent lavishly on their wedding six years ago. They soon found themselves falling behind on their bills.

"Creditors were calling, and I knew if I paid one, I couldn't pay the other," Lorraine Esbensen remembers. "It was so painful I got to the point where I didn't want to answer the phone."


Still, he said, the level of debt does raise concerns.

"In the long run, it's a ticking time bomb," Sohn said. "At some point when you get a sharp setback in the economy or a spike in interest rates, the high debt causes instability."

Porto PJT 21:26 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Seams one way street, bounces are very shy.

Memphis Charles 21:15 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
I've lost my nerve I guess - I just can't bring myself to establish new longs at these levels. I'm sure this is shortsighted, but I just can't do it.

Memphis Charles 21:12 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Obviously, I'm looking for a spot to short Euro, but I guess they're going to let the ruddy thing go to 1.30++.

Memphis Charles 21:03 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
No doubt he's a provincial idiot who buys nothing but 'Merican products.

Porto PJT 21:00 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Charles , think he need some bottles to start to understand a chart.

Global-View 20:54 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
ts. Please check your email

ts 20:47 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Moomba's troubles start to flow into the sharemarket
The fallout from last week's Moomba gas explosion in South Australia spread to the sharemarket yesterday as the prospect of a protracted period of restricted industrial gas supplies leaves some big users facing higher energy costs and upset production
smh

Memphis Charles 20:46 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Porto, I think Bernanke is full of shi* Has he tried to buy a nice Bordeaux lately? I think not..... :-)

ts 20:43 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
lahore FM The Art of War by Sun Tzu.. excellent reading for tactical moves in business and life in general -

lahore FM 20:40 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
TS 20:24 GMT January 5, 2004
Lahore FM BOJ have new tactics
(The Art of War.)

TS,
Will u dilate on this plz??

Memphis Charles 20:38 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Haven't crossed paths with him. I don't get out much - I'm either in my woodshop or in a dark room with a lot of trading screens. I'm getting weirder each passing month.

NYC YIPPEE 20:35 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
No. But he is a "Player" in the Memphis financial community. I thought that you may know him.

Memphis Charles 20:34 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
The Wade Fund.

Memphis Charles 20:33 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Is he related to Maury Wade?

Memphis Charles 20:33 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Nope, but I know John Galt.

Memphis Charles 20:32 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Should be .... Yep, Yip, but not very well.

I'm doing fine otherwise. Hope you are too.

NYC YIPPEE 20:32 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Charles, Do you know Joe Wade ?

Perth AS 20:31 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Rate cuts could halt Canada dollar's strong 2004

Memphis Charles 20:31 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
You're a gem. I need to get these bozos speaking schedules.

Memphis Charles 20:30 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Yep, but not very well.

Porto PJT 20:30 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Memphis, Charles, "Federal Reserve Board Governor Ben Bernanke told the annual meeting of the American Economics Association meeting that the dollar is not weak when one looks at the Fed's broad trade-weighted index."

Perth AS 20:28 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Rate cuts could halt Canada dollar's strong 2004Bank of Canada to cut interest rates to take some wind out of its sails

lahore FM 20:26 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Any interpretation of the Art of War??TIA.

TS 20:24 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Lahore FM BOJ have new tactics
(The Art of War.)

NYC YIPPEE 20:23 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Hello Charles

How is life ? Still trading ?

TS 20:22 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
US TECHS: Candlestick Gives 10s a Chance to Bounce] Boston, January 5 --
Despite having strong momentum behind them the bears could not force a sustained
break below retracement support at 111-03 and the contract closed very near
where it opened. This forms a doji candlestick pattern can is hinting that the
selling has run it's course. Bulls still have work to do, however, and need to
break above the daily swing point at 111-22 to confirm a short-term bottom
IFR

Memphis Charles 20:22 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Somebody dropped the ball in my office.

Memphis Charles 20:21 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Forgive the stupid question, but in what context (publication, etc.) did Bernanke speak over this past weekend?

TIA

Lahore FM 20:20 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
The expectation of intervention proved to be a fiasco after all.Nothing of the kind seems to be forthcoming.Not even a statement.No Skakibara,no nothin.

EU ZORRO 20:13 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   

Hi all....

...in 2004......Keep Buying EUROS and crosses.....!!!!

...1.30 before 1,25....

.....Good luck....Suerte...Fortuna...Boa Sorte for all....!!!!

USA Biscuit Boy 19:58 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Tony I will have a go at buying it on a dip and see if I can't squeeze out another 50 pips. Same goes for cable and kiwi. Everything is overbought against the dollar but its been that way for some time now. Euro I will leave alone for awhile. It seems to have lost its gusto and is correcting against the other majors (besides the dollar that is). GL and GT.

Melbourne Qindex 19:56 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:54 GMT January 4, 2004
GBP/USD : My 3-month projection profile indicates that a projected barrier is expected at 1.8040 - 1.8108. It is likely that the market may vibrate around the critical point at 1.7760 with a magnitud of +/ - 317 pips, i.e. 1.7443 - 1.8077. On Monday the lower barrier is expected at 1.7873 // 1.7891 and the upper barrier is located at 1.8013 // 1.8031.


... 1.7838 ... 1.7873 // 1.7891, 1.7908, 1.7926, 1.7943 ... 1.7978, 1.7996, 1.8013 // 1.8031 ... 1.8066 ...

TS 19:55 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
nyc tony
AUD/USD has moved higher further amd been to as high as .7674. believe that the rally is overbought, and
a substantial correction to .7550 viable. censored

Porto PJT 19:55 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Athens 19:51 GMT , Athens, hope you have a nice year.Still in contact with Fairfax?Long time no hear about him.Good trades.

Athens 19:51 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Van jv, go to this page of a major bank and choose any currency in the box. It gives you interbank interest rates up to 10 years.

Van jv 19:42 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Can somebody list long -term interest rates for majors---I recall IMF study which indicates that FX correlates with these, not short term rates

NYC NYC 19:23 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
As you can tell by the flow here and in the market, the afternoon is thin as the market is not yet back to full strength.

nyc tony 19:22 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
anyone have any thoughts on the kangaroo for the next session? overbought or continuing a very strong trend? me....i know nada

ts 18:33 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
A bomb in the Manchester, England, office of British Socialist legislator Gary Titley caused minor damage when a staff member opened a parcel. A similar package flared in the Brussels office of German Hans-Gert Poettering, the head of the conservative European People's Party.

A third letter bomb addressed to a Spanish conservative member of the E.U. legislature was neutralized by bomb disposal experts from the Belgian military at the Parliament's Brussels offices.

The two letter bombs found in Brussels Monday were identical in form and postmarked Dec. 22 in Bologna, Italy, from where the earlier attacks over the past two weeks are believed to have originated. Police investigations there have focused on a little-known Italian anarchist group.
bbc

Athens 18:14 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Re my 13:42 and 14:59 cable's potential today was up to 1.8120 although it didn't necessarily have to climb there. I would expect this level to be a tough one to clear at least short term.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:11 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
I am off.
my message : euro still will get up today from here 1.2678/75.
now is ideal bottom.

USA Biscuit Boy 18:11 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Found this tidbit on the dollaryen situation.

http://fxstreet.com/nou/content/103390/content.asp?menu=strategy

Shed a bit of light on the deal for me. I can't find anything else really floating around.

Perth AS 18:07 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
London Joe (Tokyo Joe) re: posting earlier - do you see pullback this week and what sort of level would be expected also think Aud is getting to dangerous levels with any slight negative information creating a very violent retracement thanks - Aus has still very large Current Account deficit which will be fed with higher dollar sucking in imports - no more fundable than the US one ,in fact once the rates level off it wont be

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:00 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
friends !!
gbp/usd still will get 1.8125 today and ideal move from, 1.8069.please buy again there with stp at 1.8060(bid)

Perth AS 17:55 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Market may miss the signs of the next US rate hike with all the USD bears around -

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:54 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
yes. eur/usd have get 1.2678. it's time to go up .

Perth AS 17:50 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Fed's Guynn: Better Econ Will Eventually Need Rate Hike
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Jack Guynn said Monday the outlook for the U.S. in 2004 looks solid, and reminded markets that at some point better growth will likely require an increase in interest rates.
reuters

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:50 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
My suggest fro euro when at 1.2680
please buy now to get 1.2766 with stop loss at 1.2657. price will up from now. maximal low bid only at 1.2678 (IMO)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:41 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp JS 17:34 GMT January 5, 2004
I hope not to think for short for gbp/usd. because too risky now. please focuse on buy to get 1.8344

Antwerp JS 17:34 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD: nearing channel top at 1.8105 --> time to short?

U.K. J.B. 17:31 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Fresh look at the markets for the new year. All the news now fully priced in i think this year will be cross dominated especially commodity plays. To much time spent looking at euro/dollar dolls/chf etc . Long euro/yen today 134.45 stopl 133.75 tar. 137/140 good luck

Dubai Reshma 17:13 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
US and UK are not just partners in the war against terrorism, but in currency market too. Bush selling dollars and Blair buying pounds. euro/gbp break below 0.6990 will confim that we are going to see one large movement down towards 0.62-0.64. Pound target will be 2 and time frame is 1 year.

Perth AS 17:11 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY heard today that Aus was slaughtering Cattle which has been imported over here so obviously there is the risk out there ..

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:10 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
wow..gbp/usd nice. support by gbp/chf.
for eur/usd up only wait gbp/chf get the top.

Perth AS 17:10 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Dollar Set Up For A Correction//The spot U.S. Dollar Index, fell to a new bear market low of 86.11 earlier Monday. That's a test of a potential long-term bottom at 86.49. Decisive end-of-day trading above 86.49 could easily take the index as high as 89.63 before the dollar bears once again take control.
reuters.

Spotforex NY 17:09 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Mad Cow cannot be determined while the patient is alive - only suspected. The age will be a big factor with the symptoms....over 65 yrs old - not likely. It is the young with CJD sypmtoms that will be of concern.....

Also this disease is dormant for 10+ years.....before the symptome emerge.....

Perth AS 17:05 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi Atlanta will check it out

atlanta mm 17:02 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
heard vague talk of patient in Adelaide hospital suspected Mad Cow , anyone else heard this

atlanta mm 17:02 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
The Chamber forecasts 3% growth for the year, and sees the BOC
potentially easing early in the year to rein in the currency

Gen dk 16:59 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Madrid GLR 16:59 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Quebec, I understand and thanks. GLR

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:58 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
hello...
I am back

Quebec YQb 16:53 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Madrid GLR 16:47 GMT

PPI came out today, but didn't phase the CAD. Unemployment #'s are out Jan 9th. But I would say the trend is well in place for many crosses. I suppose BoC will start to lower interest rates sooner than later, our exports are becoming too expensive.

USA Biscuit Boy 16:52 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Cashing in my dollar shorts again. Made only 7 pips on euro but cable did a lot better and aussie and kiwi were not too far behind.

Oilman's 1.26 call has me spooked and until we close above 1.27 I cannot get it out of the back of my brain. And what the censored is BOJ up to? With the Dow on an uptrend of its own surely they won't stand for further yen strength???

GL and GT. I need a drink :)

Madrid GLR 16:47 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Quebec, OK. Should you see any meaningful macro news on CAD would appreciate hearing from you. I sense that lawmakers are nervious about the strength and could be looking for ways to reduce price of CAD. Best, GLR

Quebec YQb 16:43 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 16:25

I'm already short Usd/Chf.


Madrid

I would've been short Usd/Cad earlier this morning, but I was cautious because it could've been a false break just as the others. Thats what tends to happen during Asian session, especially after a holiday season.
So we see now how market reacts during European and N.A markets for further confirmation.

Madrid GLR 16:35 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Quebec, how are you seeing CAD vis a vis USD? Best, GLR

Det tm 16:35 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Wiarton H 16:19 GMT January 5, 2004

Was not advocating gold or Euro.

Got up this a.m. looking for a talisman synthesis of
fundies & tech's to counter-trend trade the Loonie.

Today is not that day. GL & GT.

Calcutta Vikram 16:34 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Happy New Year, All.

A long term trade in EURGBP might be to buy the Cross near 0.6950 (hopefully in the next day or two) for a possible rise towards 0.75+. Stop Loss may be kept below 0.6750.

Cheers

Daphne Alabama WWB 16:33 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Hello- Noticed a mini-futures site called e-NetSpeculation disappeared from the web. Any comments or news?

Hong Kong Ahe 16:25 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
YQB 16:08 GMT - Beware of the profit taking of GBPCHF which has risen from 2.21 to 2.23 during European market. This will align USDCHF to 1.2250 or 1.22 below if GBPUSD is keeping at 1.8060 above. Good luck.

Wiarton H 16:19 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Det tm 15:56 GMT January 5, 2004
The Euro still better investment then gold upto now.
Gold Sept 03 Euro 345
Gold Jan1 04 Euro 330

Quebec YQB 16:08 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Usd/Chf is climbing back up. any comments on this pair?

NYC YIPPEE 16:06 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
TS 16:02 GMT January 5, 2004

I cannot believe that people pay for such a service. That kind of news is totally usless.

TS 16:02 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
4Cast News say Aussie traders getting nervous about potential for data showing signs of weakness causing large corection in currency pair Aud/USD

Det tm 15:56 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Precious metals futures having *exceptional* days across the complex. Energies up across the board. CRB up 3.00.

USA Biscuit Boy 15:43 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Yes I thought so to. Like a lot of punters I thought we would see a dollar rally to start the year but the support at 1.2630 looks to be solid.

We should see 1.3 in quick fashion and prob 1.35 by the G7 meeting IMO.

hk ab 0.88 15:37 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
BB, when Japs come back from the golden holiday, we will know the real trend per bc mentioned this morning duirng asian.

Time for my bed.

though the cad drove me crazy. but still be happy the other day.

Quebec YQB 15:31 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 15:08 GMT

It's just that Eur/Usd and Usd/Chf have remained at unchanged levels or have slightly held back.

I thought the break last night might have been a false one. Because European mkts and N.A. markets didn't open. but since they're open this morning the sentiment has been stable.

USA Biscuit Boy 15:28 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
LMAO ab....what a crazy game this is :)

hk ab 0.88 15:13 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
BB, then I think dlr/jpy has the largest liquidity.. hehehe.

hk ab 0.88 15:12 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
too bad... kicked

USA Biscuit Boy 15:08 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
YQB one possibility regarding the runup in cable may be that prior to the holidays last year a lot of players where selling their cable positions and buying euros for the extra liquidity during the thin holiday trade. We may now be seeing these funds moving back into cable, aussie and kiwi etc now liquidity is back for the most part. Either way I am not complaining :)

Athens 15:02 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Volkswagen, Europe's largest carmaker, is forecasting another loss-making year at its US business.

Hardly surprising...

Athens 14:59 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Bonn db, I have 1.8065-70 and 1.8120 FWIW.

beijing road 14:57 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Follow the trend until it reverses.

Bonn db 14:57 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Where is the next GBPUSD resistance level?

Quebec YQB 14:50 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Actually, all crosses seem to be coinciding now. same direction

Quebec YQB 14:45 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD is just climbing. while EUr/usd remains unchange. USD/CHF is reversing direction. what gives here. any comments?

guangzhou lolo 14:44 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
gbp/chf run, it that mean usd/chf corrective begin? i noticed eur/usd channel top at 1.27... let's pay attention to that.

Madrid GLR 14:29 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
long Eur/Cad @ 162.00. will add @ 164.10 and s/l @ 161.10.

hk ab 0.88 14:27 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
jf, do you know some big stops on dlr/jpy on the downside?

mex sjs 14:22 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
longed usdchf at 1.2315 sl 1.2280 tgt above 1.2400...

hk ab 0.88 14:17 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
dlr/jpy charts look so synthetic.....

automatic order, then regaint the level, once broken, all stops blown.

St. Louis SAJ 14:16 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
GENEVA -- As of a few minutes ago, the IMM EUR H swap was 21 pips.

hk ab 0.88 14:13 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
wow.... sweating... hehehe.

Gen dk 13:53 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Global-View 13:52 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Tks FHR. Corrected to read .00243

mex sjs 13:49 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
shorting gbpusd here at 1.8015 sl 50 pips tgt below 1.7800 ...gl & gt...

Moscow Hawk 13:49 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Adam, and nice cousine � goulash, liver and�

GENEVA FHR 13:46 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
HI jay happy new-year on the IMM swaps there seems to be a mistake on Euro it cannot be 43 pips for march.Pse check

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 13:45 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
I am off.

Global-View 13:43 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
IMM swaps updated.

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 13:42 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
remember my map emotion most of players.
eur/usd will get top minor at 1.2844 and extreme top for long term target is at 1.3160
gbp/usd will get top at 1.8381(top) from here will get big corection more than 500 pips
aud/usd will get 0.7710 (give pullback reaction)
usd/jpy will get 104.27
usd/chf will get 1.2005 (bottom minor)
gold will get 423.10 (minor top) and finnally at 430.70

GL-GT

Tallinn Looking for investors! 13:42 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
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Athens 13:42 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Cable moderate resistance 1.8015-20, potential 1.8120 (but not necessary toi reach). Extremely O/B pair medium term.

Athens 13:39 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Hawk. I spent a few days in Budapest, very beautiful city.

Athens 13:36 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
London lord dening, please see my 18:42 GMT January 4 in the archive. All in all, we are around the time that a trend can't start but only end, with or without an extension from current levels.

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 13:33 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
hello !!
I am back for a while.
good. gbp/usd get 1.8xx
I hope not to think about intervention especially about usd/jpy
too heavy if BOJ make intervention now.because very big selling emotion and only wait the explosion/climax. BOJ official know about that and only make resist only (not reversal).
I talk about natural emotion most of players and not so easy to change this. please focuse on selling usd always. This year will be crazy . IMO no reason to make usd bull.

London Lord Denning 13:30 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Athens 12:45 GMT//What's your anticipated movement of Euro this month?

Porto PJT 13:29 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, selling usd jpy calls have been a very good idea, usually 100/200 pips higher than the spot.

sarasota jf 13:26 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
ab - sure some stops triggered in the 30-38 range and steady again - audcad looks little heavy tho this 9850/9900 is quite strong

hk ab 0.88 13:23 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
tony, maybe bc ;)

hk ab 0.88 13:22 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
jf, filled that cad.

20 pips sl set. 10x play.

nyc tony 13:11 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 12:36 GMT January 5, 2004

If BOJ gets in the market 300 pips is a very wide range but certainly not out of the question. Also keep in my mind that when that little "automated intervention order" hit last night the $ was bought across the board.

Can anyone confirm who actually did that thing last night?

TIA

Moscow Hawk 13:06 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Adam, nice to see you. Hope you had good holidays.

Good difference also talking for the EUR high and not for the low. I do not know where this run in EUR/USD will be exhausted but I am almost confident that 1.25 is not enough for this year low and we will see the thing below 1.25 again.

Athens 13:03 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Re my 11:05 106.20-25 ihas been holding but admittedly the reaction has been a dead cat bounce thus far.

TAs 12:49 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
NEWS: More Letter Bombs Sent To European Parliament-Reuters

Athens 12:45 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
hawk re 11:38: Hawk, true, in many occasions January marks a USD year high or low and, quite interestingly, this as a rule happens during the first few days of January. However, one has to be very careful about the timing of a trend start. For example, in December 2002 the market was coming from a 5 month consolidation following July's 1.0210 top and subsequent correction. In fact last December it was starting a new EUR/$ upleg. in December 2003 EUR/$ had already rallied 700 pips above July's top (1.1930). Quite a difference.

GVI john 12:37 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2680�$/yen 106.25
DJIA +42 pts� 10-yr 4.37%, 0 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI�s �Market Snapshot�:
CLICK HERE
This report serves as the basis for discussions twice daily on GVI. These comments are the personal opinions of the author and may not be suitable for trading purposes. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]

As expected, the dollar is opening up the new week with a soft tone. Comments by FRB Governor Bernanke have been cited as a key factor, but keep in mind that the central bank plays no role in determining forex policy in the U.S. That is the role of the Treasury Secretary. As far as we know, Secretary Snow has no concerns about the dollar�s weakness at this time. We have heard reports of heavy Bank of Japan dollar support activity earlier today.

All I can say is that if a view is held almost universally by any market that it is unlikely to come to pass and the near-universal view at the moment is that the eur/$ is going to rise further. The problem is that if everyone feels it is going to rise, then everyone must be long. I share this view, but wonder if longs will have to be blown out before the eur/$ can rally. Past experience suggests that January can be a very difficult trading month just for this reason.

This week sees monetary policy decisions by the Bank of England and European Central Bank on Thursday. We see no chance for a rate change by either central bank this month, but if the euro continues to gain against the dollar there is a risk further down the road for an ECB rate CUT to neutralize the dollar�s weakness. The weak dollar is likely to forestall a Bank of England rate hike.

As for the U.S. economy, it has been strong in the past half-year, and remains strong and well outperforming Europe and Japan. So much for the relative growth scenario, for now it is dead. The goal of the administration and the Fed is to generate a self-sustaining recovery, the government via an expansive fiscal policy and the Fed via an ultra-easy monetary policy. This is not going to change until U.S. authorities are certain that the employment is on the rise in the States. Keep in mind that steering the economy via monetary policy is like steering a supertanker. Fed Funds futures now place about 60% odds on a 25bp rate hike in May. Whether you agree or not, that is what the market has now priced in.

No major data are due from the U.S. today, but November Construction Spending will be watched later.
CALENDAR:
MONDAY JANUARY 5, 2004
15:00 GMT- US- Nov Construction Spending

TUESDAY, JANUARY 6, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN- December Monetary base
09:30 GMT- UK- Dec Services PMI: vs. 59.6 in Nov
11:00 GMT- US- UK- Dec CBI Distributive Trades survey
15:00 GMT- US- Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: vs. 60.4 in Nov, see 62.0
15:00 GMT- US- Nov Factory orders: vs. +2.2% in Oct, see -1.4%

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 7, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN- January Money Market Forecast
00:30 GMT- AUS- November Retail Trade, vs. +1.2%
00:30 GMT- AUS- November Building Approvals
11:00 GMT- EUR- Dec Business Sentiment: vs. -7 in Nov
11:00 GMT- EUR- Dec Consumer Sentiment: vs. -16 in Nov
UK- Two-day Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting begins
12:00 GMT- US- MBA Refinancing Index
14:30 GMT- US- API/DOE Weekly Energy Inventories
15:00 GMT- CDA- December Ivey PMI

THURSDAY JANUARY 8, 2004
23:30 GMT-JPN- 10-Year JGB Auction
23:50 GMT-JPN- Weekly Portfolio Flows
08:55 GMT- GER- Dec Unemployment: vs. 18K (SA), +33 (NSA) in Nov
11:00 GMT- EUR- Nov Producer Prices: vs. +0.1% in Oct
11:00 GMT- EUR- Nov Unemployment Rate
12:00 GMT- UK BOE MPC decision
12:45 GMT-ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision
13:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
15:00 GMT- US- Nov Wholesale Inventories
20:00 GMT- US- Nov Consumer Credit

FRIDAY, JANUARY 9, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN- November Leading Indicators
00:30 GMT- AUS- Trade vs. �A$1.648 mln
07:00 GMT- GER- Trade: vs. +EUR10.8 bln in Oct
07:00 GMT- GER- Current Account: vs. +EUR6.3 bln in Oct
09:30 GMT- UK- Nov Trade: vs. �GBP4.4 bln in Oct
11:00 GMT- GER- Nov preliminary Industrial Orders: vs. +2.3% in Oct
12:00 GMT- CDA- December Employment:
Rate vs. 7.5%
Jobs vs. +54,100
13:30 GMT- US- Dec Employment:
Non-Farm Payrolls: vs. +57,000 in Nov, see +150,000
Unemployment Rate: vs. 5.9% in Nov, see 5.9%

Sydney2 12:36 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Hawk Thanks. If an intervention does occur, what is the level you expect for? Can it bounce to 109?

Moscow Hawk 12:32 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2, it is a matter of trading strategy.
Selling USD/JPY 107.05-30 with stop at 107.50 for 106.10-40 for half profit and for 105 for the other part was planned trade for today. Stop now is at 107.30.
Other one was selling AUD/USD at 0.7615-35 with stop at 0.7655. Already stopped out.

Nyc tony, good trades.

Gen dk 12:29 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

nyc tony 12:23 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Hawk 11:38 GMT January 5, 2004

great friggin post. my sentiments exactly. gl

Sydney2 12:19 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Hawk, Thanks. Not understand why stop at 107.5? Why not buy more at 107.5?

Gen dk 12:16 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

london ch 12:15 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Need advice on how to buy Maltese lire at best rate

Gen dk 12:13 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Moscow Hawk 12:11 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney, I think it was reasonable (107.05-30) with stop at 107.50. Now it ts not very likely to see it above 107 comming hours but the risk as I pointed before is above today�s high. So the stop somewhere 107.30-45 is OK.

Mexifornia, Calimerica SNP 12:06 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
cnn.com says bomb scare within EU parliament ... and that sends price rocketing higher ? what did i miss LoL ... who cares

Sydney2 11:59 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Hawk, Thanks. But do you think selling USA at 107 is a safe bet? Just waiting for possible BOJ's action?

Gen dk 11:57 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sydney2 11:53 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
sorry I meant against Yen

Moscow Hawk 11:52 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2, I am not the advocate of the yen but think that USD is vulnerable to further losses. I also think that the move was not leaded by the crosses and it is natural move of USD/JPY. One also has to note that MoF executed their task to hold USD/JPY from further losses last year despite the overall gloomy picture for dollar. Now it is new year and naturally to expect the new lows for the pair and not count on MoF at least at current levels.

Sydney2 11:52 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
will USD go even lower today?

Mexifornia, Calimerica SNP 11:44 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
10:24 GMT January 5, 2004
01:02 GMT January 5, 2004

buying eurusd ahead of 1.2586/1.2569 finally shoots off into oblivion :-)
didnt expect much out of selling eurgbp after 0.70 or eurjpy below 134.88
selling gbpchf near 2.2198 only yielded a few dimes

Sydney2 11:38 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
A good chance to buy USA/JPY? Any comments please.

Moscow Hawk 11:38 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
It is not a bad time to remind about January extreme points (high/low) of EUR/USD. For many years EUR/USD (USD/DEM before) has marked the high/low for whole year in January. Of course there are exemptions but as known they are confirm the rule. Year 2002 was very interesting in this context. EUR/USD closed the January near the lows and if I remember correctly on the first day of February we have seen new low 10 pips below the January low and from this point euro marched to the higher ground above parity.

Every year somebody points this fact but then the idea fast disappears. But generally it works despite it looks very simple.

I do not know will we see indicated rule will work this January. But if it works I think more chances to see yearly high in EUR/USD than low this month.

Good luck.

GER ad 11:31 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
The pressure on USD/JPY came from Jen crosses (EUR/JPY at 135.70; AUD/JPY at 82.10 is too much for today... IMHO). First try to correct a little EUR/JPY trough lower EUR/USD (down from 1.2694 to 1.2638) have not succeeded (from 1.3518 back to 1.3544) so was need for a lower USD/JPY to bring back EUR/JPY to a more (momentary) acceptable quote 1.3460.
If USD/JPY will be back at 106.90+ by NY close than EUR/USD will be lower (~1.26) IMHO.

slv sam 11:28 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 12:03 GMT January 2, 2004
SELL e/y now at 1.3480 for nice dip till 1.30 level IMHO.GT

Hong Kong nt 11:26 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
EURJPY looks vulnerable...

Gen dk 11:26 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 11:22 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Mexifornia, Calimerica SNP 11:21 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Saihat 10:45 GMT January 5, 2004

last time this happened (usdchf) all the charts crashed ... i had to uninstall/reinstall the app from scratch and reinvoke all the charts with their settings and time frames ... have always kept a backup of the installer file and the update since then

i even emailed them re: my problem but never got any reply

Chambery FR JFB 11:20 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi all :-)

Anyone knows a free historical data provider with a consistent date/time format plz? TIA GL GT to all :-)

melbourne farmacia 11:20 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL 11:06 GMT January 5, 2004
Thanks mate, had a short break on the beach without my charts... GT

LondonJoe 11:09 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
AUD showing a precarious overbought indicator light up on the de-mark studies.. for me it has gone too far too fast.. and I see some good retracement from here over the next week

BOJ night watchman 11:07 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
settle down boys & girls nothing to get too excited about, it's only a temperary dip induced by the crosses.

Miami OMIL 11:06 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia good to see your comments, hope you enjoyed your holidays. (/;-> GT

Athens 11:05 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
FWIW my lower $/JPY band today is 106.20-25. Lower projected support levels are 105.50 and 105.15.

Lahore fm 11:04 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Iintend to get long at a pricecloser to 106.00.AND hitch my wagon to the intervening star.

melbourne farmacia 11:04 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
106.15 Yen is the key today.

Miami OMIL 11:00 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Lahore fm 10:53 GMT January 5, 2004
The risk is to great to get caught up in the crossfire while the stops were taken out at 106.50 BOJ will not let this go unchallenged IMHO. (/;->

slv sam 10:55 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
i am going to buy $/y at 105.77.GT

Lahore fm 10:53 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Omil,i AM CONSIDERING A REVERSE.

Lahore fm 10:51 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Beyonding,the news is that it is trading out of range of past few days and below 106.60.

nyc beyonding destiny 10:49 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
there must some news/event supporting this movement of yen? ...anyway, long at 106 and 105.5

Miami OMIL 10:49 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
FM rumors are there for a purpose but I would be careful around 106.15-00 area. BOJ is very clever and could strike at any moment IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Alicante RTN 10:46 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Watch out for possible BOJ intervention during London lunch hours - most bang for the buck.

They are likely to let the usdjpy spot drop a few more pips to encourage weak shorts to jump on board - adds fuel to the fire later.

Melbourne Qindex 10:46 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:40 GMT January 4, 2004
USD/JPY : My 3-month projection profile indicates that the market is challenging the strength of a barrier located at 106.84 - 107.65. A projected supporting level is positioning at 103.91 - 104.39 and a projected resistant level is expected at 109.29 - 110.44. On Monday the lower barrier of my daily cycle is located at 106.30 // 106.47 and the upper barrier is expected at 107.18 // 107.35.


... 105.41 ... 105.95, 106.12, 106.30 // 106.47, 106.65, 106.83 ... 107.18 // 107.25, 107.53 ...

Lahore fm 10:45 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Sitting long yen and cross-fingered.

Saihat 10:45 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
SNP 10:24

i notice eurusd (charts) not working

LAHORE fm 10:44 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
But we are below the level now.

nyc beyonding destiny 10:43 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
i gut feeling is BoJ will do , but not at current level against market..maybe 106...

Miami OMIL 10:42 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Rumors of intervention on the 106.70-50 area by BOJ is keeping this pair from going down further. (/;->

Moscow Hawk 10:40 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Also I think there will be no intervention at current levels. But anyway risk is known and reasonable � today�s high.

LAHORE fm 10:39 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
IS THERE ANY?

LaHORE fm 10:38 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
INTERVENTION WAS OVERDUE.

Moscow Hawk 10:36 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Market is again testing 106.50-75 in USD/JPY. Think this time it will give up and we will see 105.75-00 tested.

nyc beyonding destiny 10:36 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
any news about yen???

Mexifornia, Calimerica SNP 10:29 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Athens 18:42 GMT January 4, 2004
shanghai bc 01:59 GMT January 5, 2004

many thanks for your generousity

Miami OMIL 10:25 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
AGold, thanks GL=(good luck) and GT=(good trades) to you also. (/;->

Mexifornia, Calimerica SNP 10:24 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
with reference to the last post @ 01:02 GMT January 5, 2004

buying eurusd ahead of 1.2586/1.2569 is working out ONLY coz of averages
buying gbpusd ahead of 1.7904 is a clear 50 cents +
selling eurgbp ahead of 0.7047 grosses 25/30 bps ... don't expect much more
selling eurchf ahead of 1.5637/12 is worth 20 bps yet - might dip to 1.5550 and test short-term TL @ 1.5537
selling eurjpy ahead of 134.88 repeatedly scalped a few off the board but flat for now
selling gbpchf near 2.2198 is worth a few dimes but need a close below 2.2137 to add
buying usdjpy ahead of 106.96/107.09 = small loss (censored these charts crashing)

not a bad start to the new year ... anyone else having problems with Dealsmart Inform or Metaquotes feed re: $JPY ?

Hong Kong nt 10:22 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Vienna AGold 09:59 GMT -- though trading volume of a particular pair of ccy is not available, there exists a good relationship between volume and trading range...

Vienna AGold 10:20 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL: thanks, like your posts ... seems you have a good feeling for mr. market () ... wish you the best for 2004!

Miami OMIL 10:13 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Vienna AGold 09:59 GMT January 5, 2004
Sorry as far as I know there are no volumes indicators for the forex market. You can take a look at (ADX) indicator it measures the strength of the trend. And you can get free charts at:
http://www.dailyfx.com/tr_charts.html

Vienna AGold 09:59 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL: I'm new to this forum, please can you tell me where I can find (free) volume or volume-indicators for forex ... or aren't these available for forex?

ts 09:57 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Soaring euro puts question mark over German, eurozone recovery outlook FRANKFURT (AFP) - Hopes that the long-ailing German economy this year will finally put behind it three long years of stagnation -- and help pull the entire eurozone with it -- could soon fizzle if the euro continues to soar, experts warn.

Last year, like the two years before it, has been pronounced by economic commentators as the "annus horribilis" for the German economy, the biggest but worst-performing of the 12 countries that share the single currency.

The picture of Germany in 2003 was as dim as it had been in the preceding two years, characterized by zero growth, soaring unemployment, runaway public deficits, tumbling consumer confidence and a record number of corporate bankruptcies.

However, the new year has begun with promises that things can only get better.

"There are increasing signs that, in the fourth quarter (of 2003), the German economy finally managed to shake off the stubborn stagnation of previous years and is back on the path of growth," Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder wrote in a guest column in the business daily Handelsblatt last week.

Economy and Labour Minister Wolfgang Clement had sung the same tune in a newspaper interview published a few days earlier.

"Economic growth will be between 1.5 and 2.0 percent in 2004, and by all means better than in 2003," Clement insisted.

And this time around, the politicians did not seem to be alone in their optimism.

"At last, an upturn is in sight," proclaimed the mass-circulation daily Bild recently and quoted a whole range of economic experts as predicting that growth would pick up to 2.0 percent this year from zero percent last year and unemployment would fall to of seven or eight percent in 2004 from 10 percent in 2003.

Such optimism was already firing up the stock markets.

The blue-chip DAX 30 (Xetra: ^GDAXI - news) index ended 2003 at the year's high and then breached the key pyschological level of 4,000 points on Friday for the first time since July 2002.

"The international stock markets have bid farewell to 2003, the last of three very disappointing years, by popping open the champagne and setting off fireworks. The markets are going into 2004 with optimism," Commerzbank (Xetra: 803200.DE - news) analysts wrote in their weekly stock market round-up.

Even the high-brow financial daily Boersen-Zeitung observed in its leader column that "with the stock indices at their year's highs, a stable currency and favourable economic perspectives -- could 2003 have ended on a more conciliatory note?"

But amid the fizz of euphoria, some cautionary voices were also beginning to be heard.

The president of the German DIHK association of chambers of commerce, Ludwig Georg Braun, warned against getting too excited about the scope of the anticipated recovery this year.

"We're predicting growth of 2.0 percent for 2004. Of this, half a percentage point will result solely because there will be four more working days this year than there were last year," Braun said.

"And the rising euro could also mean that growth comes at less than 2.0 percent," Braun added.

Indeed, the speed with which the euro was rising was one of the major headaches facing the heavily export-orientated German economy -- and with it the eurozone as a whole -- some experts believe.

The chief economist of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Jean-Philippe Cotis, warned that the euro, which surged to a new record of 1.2648 dollars on Wednesday, could soar into an exchange-rate "danger zone".

The stronger euro makes eurozone exports more expensive for foreign buyers, particularly in the United States.

Even the European Central Bank seems to be getting uneasy about the exchange rate and fears the euro could move still higher and jeopardise recovery, the Financial Times quoted an unnamed senior ECB official last week as saying.

In an interview with the Friday edition of the Financial Times Deutschland, the Wuerzburg economics professor Peter Bofinger urged the ECB to intervene on the foreign exchange markets to rein in the runaway euro.

TS 09:53 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
More manufacturing job losses ahead
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8903-952446,00.html

Miami OMIL 09:43 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
FWIW the resistance at this moment is 1.2655-50 for eur/usd if 1.2670 holds then we will see a test of the support 1.2622-00 area IMHO. (/;->

Melbourne Qindex 09:41 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
TS 09:39 GMT - I will post my monthly cycle analysis in mypage later this week.

TS 09:39 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex do you see the Aud higher this month or chance of pullback, and if so what level. thnks

melbourne farmacia 09:38 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
As posted earlier today - Aud/Usd should complete current cycle at 0.7672 - could see some pull back from here fwiw

Melbourne Qindex 09:36 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Use the weekly cycle analysis for reference today.

Melbourne Qindex 09:31 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
nyc beyonding destiny 09:27 GMT - I would prefer you to see my page.

nyc beyonding destiny 09:27 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
this aussie run is unstoppable...ausyen could c 83.5 soon...what's ur view on it, Qindex?thanx

Melbourne Qindex 09:24 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : The odds are good that the market will test the upper barrier of my daily cycle at 1.2435 // 1.2472 later today.

Miami OMIL 09:21 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Cairo MDR 09:12 GMT January 5, 2004
The resistance has been seen now at 1.2700-95 at this time and the support I commented about it earlier. (/;->

Miami OMIL 08:24 GMT January 5, 2004
Hope everyone had a nice holiday. Looks like eur/usd is going on a dip to test support. Fib retracement is 1.2649, 1.2635 and 1.2622. the 200 and 100 ma lines are acting support presently at 1.2600 and 1.2560 IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

hk ab 0.88 09:18 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
YIPPEE, you should be v. happy now like a bird!
GT and GL.

Cairo MDR 09:12 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL
would u plz tell me the suggested support and resistance levels for eur$ today?
TIA

Gen dk 09:12 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sydney2 09:07 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
good, understand! thx again

Miami OMIL 09:04 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 08:56 GMT January 5, 2004
I am not sure I understand the question correctly but buying on dips means buying when the prices do not go under a support level. Right now eur/usd is testing the 1.2635 area you should use your graph and indicators to tell you when it is holding at the support level. For short time trades the 1 hr, 30mn, 15mn and 5mn charts are useful. Hope that helps you. (/;->

hk ab 0.88 09:03 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
If hk and japan are the forward shadow of US, then, the revival of US economy is just a matter of time.

Now, I wonder those people who spreaded the news of mass shares selling few months ago are really big liars......

Would those CEOs that stupid to sell their own share big time at DOWJ 8000? What a life.

Sydney2 08:56 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL Thanks a lot, very valuable comment. What is buying point from your point of view? I am quite new on this market.

Miami OMIL 08:51 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 08:38 GMT January 5, 2004
The trend for eur/usd remains intact therefore the call should be buy on dips. Right now you will have to wait and see how the market reacts to 1.2635-25 area before you buy IMHO. The fib numbers are a guide to were the prices bounce off and there is were you can buy. A word of caution the trend is extended and the stops should be tight at this stage you are buying near the top and a retracement can clean you out with out a stop, remember always protect you money IMHO. (/:-> GL GT

Sydney2 08:48 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
I see, thanks hk ab

Sydney2 08:48 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
SA Jhb, thanks

hk ab 0.88 08:47 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney 2, HSI= Heng Seng Index.

It closes 12950 today.

SA Jhb 08:45 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 08:40 GMT January 5, 2004
Miami, or wait for 1.2600?

Better choice! LOL

Sydney2 08:40 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Miami, or wait for 1.2600?

Sydney2 08:38 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Miami, buy at 1.2649?

Sydney2 08:36 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
hello nt, what is HSI?

hk ab 0.88 08:29 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
mid-Jan will be great fun.

Hong Kong nt 08:25 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
HK AB--yes, ready to sell HSI at 13300/ DJI at 10700...

Miami OMIL 08:24 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Hope everyone had a nice holiday. Looks like eur/usd is going on a dip to test support. Fib retracement is 1.2649, 1.2635 and 1.2622. the 200 and 100 ma lines are acting support presently at 1.2600 and 1.2560 IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Hong Kong nt 08:23 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
HK AB--buying AUD around 20-day MA works wonder, reverse at .765 and use the 300-pip profit as stop...

hk ab 0.88 08:21 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
nt, know what looks like to me?

big fishes saw bc posts and tried to run for the last few stops built up on the top. But it provides better level for bc to sell eur!

hk ab 0.88 08:20 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
nt, u sell HSI?

Hong Kong nt 08:17 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
HK AB--sold all shares where market breaks 13000, awaiting 13300 to short sell and buy back at around 20-day MA...

Melbourne Qindex 08:13 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is going to test the supporting strength of the daily cycle barrier at 1.2639 // 1.2657.

Melbourne Qindex 08:11 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : the current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 1.2614 - 1.2716 and the mid-point reference is 1.2665.

hk ab 0.88 08:11 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
exit all aud/nzd shorts with mild gains.

need to wait for the clear break of the channel.

hk ab 0.88 08:10 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Raden, have you taken ECB into consideration? TIA!

Melbourne Qindex 08:09 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The mid-point reference between 1.2674 - 1.2710 is 1.2692, and a 3-month projection chart point is positioning at 1.2690.

beijing road 08:08 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
keep going with the trend!!!!!!!!!

Melbourne Qindex 08:05 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:04 GMT January 4, 2004
EUR/USD : The critical level of my 3-month projection profile is positioning at 1.2690 - 1.2775. Speculative short positions will increase if the market is trading below 1.2505 and the short term target is 1.2258. On Monday the lower barrier is expected at 1.2551 // 1.2568 and the upper barrier is located at 1.2639 // 1.2657.


... 1.2551 // 1.2568, 1.2586 ... 1.2621, 1.2639 // 1.2657 ... 1.2674 ... 1.2710 ...

USA Biscuit Boy 08:01 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
I agree with you Raden. I am now short dollars against euro, aussie, kiwi and cable again. Apparently there will be no dollar bounce. Looks like a steady depreciation for the dollar until the central banks decide it has become a problem.

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 07:40 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
upsss my message...
be carefull until March 2004 and early of July 2004.
untill March please focuse on sell usd and wait for a while and focuse buy usd early of July 2004 for 500 - 700 pips for euro.

CU...

TAS; 07:38 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia solo raden_masandi
hi , what ranges do you see them trading in Europe and NY sessions thanks

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 07:37 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
I am sorry.. I am off.
CU...

MONACO OGA 07:35 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 05/01
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (Currently 1.2660). The US currency continues to be soft and is beginning 2004 80 pips lower agains the EUR, printing a new high at 1,2680 since Oct 96. 1,2450 is now appearing as a strong support while we see next logical target around 1.2850. What is keeping me confortable is that most of the traders I talk to keep selling the rallies and betting on a "surprise" USD recovery, which clearly means for me that the maximum level of pain has not been reached yet. I still believe we are in the process of a wide USD depreciation move, smoothly orchestrated by supranational entities. Therefore my advice to build up long positions into retracements and dips remains valid. Only once the market massively turns bullish and is effectively carrying long positions will it be time to consider contra trades and sharp retracements to 1,16-1,20 for 2004 which I expect to be pretty hectic and volatile.

Data out today:
EMU CPI Y/Y Dec expected 2,0% 11.00 GMT
EMU Ind orders Oct expected 1,9% 11.00 GMT
CAN RMPI Nov expected 3.0% 13.30 GMT
US const spending Nov expected 0.5% 15.00 GMT

Gold around 417 , with WTI February at 32,48.

***JPY***
Usd/Jpy (currently 106,90), flat mainly due to the BOJ/MOF bids supporting the pair there since last Friday. 106,80-90 will have to crack at one point with the USD still under pressure, and we believe the japanese authorities are gearing up for more intervention tools and are getting ready to defend the highly psychological 100 level (not seen since Nov 1995). EUR/JPY (135,50) up 1 full point this morning and continuing its journey up, looks pretty bullish although we cannot see much upside potential yet above 140.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1.7960) following EUR and printing another 12 years high at 1,7965. The pair seems to be gathering momentum for the psychological barrier at 1,80 . Most likely 2004 will see some trading around 1,85.
EUR/GBP (0.7055), hovering around 0,7030 pivotal point. No particular target, although Euro GBP integration looks less and less likely and therefore we will be looking to sell the rallies.

Have a nice day,

Olivier

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 07:32 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
HK.
off course.
my map off all : gbp/usd will get 1.8381 ; eur/usd will get top at 1.2844 (nearest) and 1.3160 ; usd/jpy will get 104.27 and gold will get 423.10and 430.70. usd/chf will get 1.2005 and aud/usdwill get 0.7710

nyc sa 07:31 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi Indonesia, happy new year , what's your call for $/chf ?your target down before a rebound ? thnx .

TAs 07:28 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR ECON: German November Wholesale Sales Fall 2.3% Y/Y

HK EL 07:26 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
should buy gbp now?

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 07:24 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd. please confidence to get 1.8381 (top area)., from here will give sharply down.
euro please wait to get 1.31xx and nearesttarget is at 1.2844 (top)
All have I called to you last year. LOL

HK EL 07:11 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi raden what is your view on GBP now?

Saudi Arabia Gamber 07:04 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
hello raden

how r u? happy new year.. :)

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 07:02 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
hello... happy new year !!
nice....... for all.
have a nice for you !!

TAS 06:31 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
HONG KONG (AP)--China's latest suspected SARS patient definitely has the disease and could represent the start of a new outbreak, a Chinese researcher said Monday, although the World Health Organization said tests have not yet confirmed that the man has SARS.

Zhong Nanshan, director of the Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Diseases, told a Hong Kong news conference Monday that the 32-year-old television producer, who was sickened in Guangdong, had contracted the severe acute respiratory syndrome virus.

"This is definitely a SARS coronavirus infection," Zhong said.

A fellow Hong Kong researcher, Yuen Kwok-yung, said the conclusion was reached based on genetic sequencing.

He said the virus found in the latest case is slightly different from the strain behind the previous outbreak, which originated in Guangdong in November 2002 and eventually spread worldwide.

Although no one else is known to have been infected with the same new strain of SARS, researchers cautioned an outbreak could follow, based on the last epidemic - when the outbreak exploded about 20-30 days after the first two SARS cases were discovered.

"We must be very cautious about its infectious propensity," Zhong said.

However, WHO spokesman Peter Cordingley said until tests prove otherwise, "we're treating this still as a suspected case."

The WHO has asked two Hong Kong laboratories to examine samples from the suspected SARS patient, but results thus far have been inconclusive.

Zhong's team, working with Hong Kong researchers, also found a virus in civet cats in Guangdong that is very similar to the new SARS strain - suggesting the disease had jumped from animals to humans as recently as the past month.

Civets are mammals resembling large weasels with long, catlike bodies and large tails. In a recent Guangdong sample, civets and their relatives - including raccoon dogs, Chinese ferret badgers and hog badgers - were found to contain huge quantities of the SARS virus in their feces, the researchers said.

The genetic sequencing of the animal SARS virus has appeared more "human-like," meaning they are more infectious for humans than before, Zhong said.

But the researchers said it remains unclear whether the virus was transmitted directly from a civet cat to the patient. The man said he had not eaten any wild game dishes but had touched at least one rat before he fell sick, Zhong said.

A similar animal-to-human crossover was suspected in the last SARS outbreak, and the researchers Monday said the latest finding reinforces that theory.

Chinese officials later Monday ordered the slaughter of some 10,000 civet cats and the closure of Guangdong wildlife markets that house them.

If confirmed, the Guangdong case would be China's first SARS case since July. In the last outbreak, the disease killed 349 people on China's mainland and a total of 774 around the world, and sickened more than 8,000 worldwide.

TAS 06:31 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
HONG KONG (AP)--China's latest suspected SARS patient definitely has the disease and could represent the start of a new outbreak, a Chinese researcher said Monday, although the World Health Organization said tests have not yet confirmed that the man has SARS.

Zhong Nanshan, director of the Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Diseases, told a Hong Kong news conference Monday that the 32-year-old television producer, who was sickened in Guangdong, had contracted the severe acute respiratory syndrome virus.

"This is definitely a SARS coronavirus infection," Zhong said.

A fellow Hong Kong researcher, Yuen Kwok-yung, said the conclusion was reached based on genetic sequencing.

He said the virus found in the latest case is slightly different from the strain behind the previous outbreak, which originated in Guangdong in November 2002 and eventually spread worldwide.

Although no one else is known to have been infected with the same new strain of SARS, researchers cautioned an outbreak could follow, based on the last epidemic - when the outbreak exploded about 20-30 days after the first two SARS cases were discovered.

"We must be very cautious about its infectious propensity," Zhong said.

However, WHO spokesman Peter Cordingley said until tests prove otherwise, "we're treating this still as a suspected case."

The WHO has asked two Hong Kong laboratories to examine samples from the suspected SARS patient, but results thus far have been inconclusive.

Zhong's team, working with Hong Kong researchers, also found a virus in civet cats in Guangdong that is very similar to the new SARS strain - suggesting the disease had jumped from animals to humans as recently as the past month.

Civets are mammals resembling large weasels with long, catlike bodies and large tails. In a recent Guangdong sample, civets and their relatives - including raccoon dogs, Chinese ferret badgers and hog badgers - were found to contain huge quantities of the SARS virus in their feces, the researchers said.

The genetic sequencing of the animal SARS virus has appeared more "human-like," meaning they are more infectious for humans than before, Zhong said.

But the researchers said it remains unclear whether the virus was transmitted directly from a civet cat to the patient. The man said he had not eaten any wild game dishes but had touched at least one rat before he fell sick, Zhong said.

A similar animal-to-human crossover was suspected in the last SARS outbreak, and the researchers Monday said the latest finding reinforces that theory.

Chinese officials later Monday ordered the slaughter of some 10,000 civet cats and the closure of Guangdong wildlife markets that house them.

If confirmed, the Guangdong case would be China's first SARS case since July. In the last outbreak, the disease killed 349 people on China's mainland and a total of 774 around the world, and sickened more than 8,000 worldwide.

nyc beyonding destiny 06:21 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 05:36 GMT January 5, 2004

I agree, from a Chinese view..:)

shanghai bc 05:36 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   

AB -- I guess Chinese firms listed outside Chinese stockmarkets may do far better than the ones inside China..Chinese government is not particularly encouraging the rise of stock market for fear of folks doing unproductive activities like stock speculation rather than doing something more useful like planting trees or farming fish..The world may be riding China.com bubble again for another few more years..Japan Bubble,Internet Bubbble and this time China Bubble for fund folks..We may see some more years of decent ride on this mini-China Bubble No.1 though..The trick is always how to ride the Bubble and get off the Bubble before it bursts..

TAS 05:32 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
New high's have been recorded for this trend on the EUR/USD, GBP/USD,
AUD/USD and the NZD/USD. The only cloud on the horizon is the timing of this
move. The Asian time zone, especially on Monday has a history of providing false
breaks in USD moves and though at this juncture the downward trend in the USD
looks set to continue, players are wary of fresh news or a change of sentiment
in Europe. ifr

SF Mike 05:31 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Anybody know whether EUR leads GBP in the short term, say 5 minute bars?

hk ab 0.88 05:18 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
bc, among all the different stock mkt, which country's one will be the best performed this year? The Chinese one?

Thanks! And an early Happy Lunar New Year!

shanghai bc 05:11 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   

AB -- From Chinese perspective,it is always better to deal with known crooks..So,Bush second term is a preferred choice for China than an unknown democrat blasting into the Whitehouse..In any case,in general,the pattern of rising stocks and falling Dollars and rising commodities may be the name of the game again this year with lots of ups and downs in the middle though..

hk ab 0.88 05:10 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
nt, seems someone cannot tolerate the gov't anymore and tried some crazy act in hk this morning.

hk ab 0.88 04:59 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
bc, do you think will there be any impact if Bush can not succeed this year?

hk ab 0.88 04:47 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
nt, It's a hard work at the beginning of the year.

Look at the wild aud.
:)

TAS 04:27 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
BEIJING (AP)--China Monday ordered some 10,000 civet cats in wildlife markets killed in its southern province of Guangdong after genetic tests suggested a link to a suspected SARS case.

All wildlife markets in Guangdong were ordered to close, Feng Liuxiang, deputy director of the province's health department, said on national television. Civets are served in wild game restaurants in Guangdong.

The announcement came after researchers at Hong Kong University said they found similarities between a virus found in the cats and in a suspected SARS patient in Guangdong, suggesting the disease might have jumped from animals.

"We will take resolute measures to close all the wildlife markets in Guangdong and to kill the civet cats," Feng said on the national noon newscast of China Central Television.

CCTV said there were believed to be about 10,000 civet cats being held for sale in Guangdong wildlife markets

Eilat Dolphin 04:18 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Beyond Destiny/ Just like in the Western when the bad guys put some dynamite on the safe's door: a vault has exploded its $ contents in the Land of the Setting Sun; only it was real bankers that did the job.

Strange world. The sun is rising! Good night.

nyc beyonding destiny 04:10 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
anyone knows what cause that short live shooting of $yen? thanx

TS 03:59 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Manila markets not fretting for now over wire report Philippines has isolated woman suspected of contracting SARS while working in HK;

TAS 03:48 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
November retail data due Wednesday to show first signs of impact of rate rises ,say Macquarie Bank economists

Ldn 03:05 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
A survey of 15 economists conducted by Dow Jones Newswires on Monday found the median expectation is for Australian building approvals to have fallen 5.0% from the previous month, after a surprise 1.6% gain in October.

"The glut of property is getting bigger. Watch for a correction, perhaps starting this month," said Stephen Koukoulas, chief Asia Pacific strategist at TD Securities.

Building approvals are expected to correct lower from unsustainable highs after several months of solid gains and as the housing market, which has been booming, starts to slow in response to rising interest rates.

Westpac economists note that private apartment approvals, which are notoriously volatile, surged 18.9% in September and rose a further 3.1% in October to be well above trend.

"This suggests a correction of 20% to 25% (in apartment approvals) in the offing," the economists said in a weekly report.

They anticipate a downward trend in building approvals to emerge early in 2004 in response to the Reserve Bank of Australia's recent monetary policy tightening.

Economists say anecdotal evidence also suggests a softer result for retail trade than in October despite Australia's hosting of the Rugby World Cup, which boosted merchandise and hospitality sales.

The survey found economists expect retail trade to have risen 0.6% in November from October, compared with a rise of 1.2% the previous month.
The data will be viewed by Reserve Bank as it decides whether to raise rates again at its next monthly board meeting, in February.
.
AP

London Paul_ex trader 03:02 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
MMS is showing the following:
EUR/JPY remains well supported off a 6-week rising trendline supoprt near 134.00 to latest fresh 4-month high above last Wednesday 135.21. Short-term scope is set for extension towards 137.00/07 as daily oscillators remain bullishly poised. Last Friday"s low at 134.24 is tagged at minor key support. STRATEGY BUY 135.05 FOR INITIAL 136.00 OBJ, STOP (134.70)

Hong Kong nt 02:58 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
HK AB--any views on EUR/JPY? upside bias for 138?

melbourne farmacia 02:58 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Euro's current cycle ( short term ) completed at 1.2672 from 1.2423 base. Break of 1.2672 puts 1.2757 in sight. fwiw

Sydney2 02:53 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Ldn, sorry just squared last Friday.

Sydney2 02:51 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja, good points, thanks. What I think at moment is that USA government and Fed want $ devaluation further, If this holds true, why pepole will sell euro?
BOJ didnot hit my order and waiting for bigger action to come!

Ldn 02:50 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone have the IMM contracts on the Aud for this last week and Euro thanks

TAS 02:47 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Signs SARS Jumping From Animals To Humans
Fresh link between SARS and animals with HK researchers saying there's connection between suspected SARS case in China and civet cats

Sydney Ge11Ja 02:44 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
sydney2

the problem with trading on fundamentals especially when you are a short-term trader like me is that you are assuming you know what others will do in response to the fundamentals ie a big trade defecit might be bad for usd but some might say it is good as it raises the prospect of rate hikes.
technicals are better because they show you the whole picture ie where people have bought and sold and where the breakouts are etc. so that method increases your odds of success
but biscuit boy is right it is all about money management ie you dont go broke making money

the markets are overstretched technically at the moment and the correction will be nasty but for the moment it is best not to try and pre-empt it, take the small moves and keep tight stops

TAS 02:44 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Strongest ISM manufacturing index in 20 years spurred some action in Fed funds futures Friday, though just in terms of magnitude of possible hike, not timing; market still punting on hike in June with contracts now pricing in around 8% chance of 50bp hike then, vs no chance beforehand. Still 100% chance of 25bp hike. Data "definitely start the year off right," says Bank of America's Gerald Lucas. Eurodollars also shifted a bit with deferred contracts down more than 10 bps Friday, pricing in around 250 bps of hikes by 3Q05

mex sjs 02:37 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
just an observation in EURO: last 7 weeks the average of pips between the ema5 & high (of each week) is 240 pips; current week ema5 is at 1.2463 if this pattern repites again that means the high for EURO this week would/could be around 1.2700/10 area, but you never know....I will short it when above 1.2700...gl & gt...

Sydney Ge11Ja 02:35 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
canberra

liquidity this week will be about 70% ish, probably back to normal from next week as still a few take extended holidays

USA Biscuit Boy 02:30 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 all you can do is put your chips in when you believe the percentages are with you based on fundamentals, technicals or any other method you like to use. It's all money management from there and just enjoy the ride either way. Don't have any regrets you did your best at the time and thats all we can do :)

canberra jsh 02:25 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
When is the holiday period considered over and normal liquidity back in action? I would think it would be today, but perhaps it is a more gradual thing...tia

Sydney2 02:24 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy, it is possible. I just regretted I have squared my euro positions. Even most expensive price 1.2605 I bought looks very cheap now but when I bought it everyone said it was dangerious (including me). When market really had a corrections during last few days, I am just wondering how many euro bulls bought dips? I just doubted it since they all expected more deeper bottoms.

By the way, I found that all mates who were claming a big correction (from 1.23s) are based on the charting/indicators, BUt fundamentals sometime may play a greater role on determining the trend. looking at Aud chart, Overbought from last Oct, but it is still hitting new highs. How to balance between indicators and fundamentals is really a very hard task.

Personally, I donot think there will be any correction greater than 200pips until euro hits 1.30. Of cource I may be wrong but who knows?

USA Biscuit Boy 02:21 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
I thought they were supposed to be working these holidays, at least thats what I read somewhere?

hk ab 0.88 02:18 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
I think they have left a sum before the golden holidays.

Those look like automatic order.

London Paul_ex trader 02:17 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
watch out for 2nd wave!

SF Mike 02:16 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
That was small.

London Paul_ex trader 02:15 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
they need to keep coming in again otherwise total waste of time

hk ab 0.88 02:14 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
YIPPEE, your most impt friend is boj.

Sydney Ge11Ja 02:14 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
looks like official action in usd/yen

hk ab 0.88 02:13 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
oops, hit boj order.

wait to sell the 100-200 pips correction.

hk ab 0.88 02:12 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
dlr/jpy 100 coming.

guangzhou lolo 02:04 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
bc,good morning, always thanks for your view. gl

shanghai bc 02:01 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   

"buying and holding scrap-metals in your backyard"..

hk ab 0.88 02:01 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Thankyou bc, points taken.

shanghai bc 01:59 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   

AB 01:49 -- The arrival of Chinese contingent in commodities and Gold markets changed their landscape for the next several decades..Gold may dip as far as 360-390/OZ range at some stage this year but any good dip is a buy and hold for the next few decades..Even buying and holding scarp-metals in your backyard in this time frame may do much better than buying stocks or bonds..Mega-trend is still up with good corrections providing buying opportunities in the middle..Chinese Bubble and commodities bubble along with it, may take at least several more decades before it burst..Imho..

USA Biscuit Boy 01:53 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 if the market keeps this up it may be at 1.28 by close tomorrow LOL.

Sydney2 01:50 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
`Tacit Support'

``U.S. authorities continue to give tacit support to weaken the dollar,'' said Robert Rennie, a strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. ``Markets will continue to move the dollar lower until told otherwise.'' The euro will rise to $1.28 in the first quarter, he said.

shanghai bc 01:49 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   

LOLO 01:03 -- Good morning..Expecting Eur/Usd 1.25-1.30 range to be the maximum run in this leg with possible correction to 1.15-120 range later..It could be translated into Usd/Chf 1.20-1.25 range first and 1.30-.1.35 range later..In terms of sentiment,we may be having the last blast by late comers to Euro party..We may see the real tend of the next several months when real money folks start moving in towards the middle of this month..Year of Monkey tends to be UP and DOWN YOYO market..Imho..Good trades..

Gen dk 01:49 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 0.88 01:49 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
bc, you mentioned that gold needs a correction to the downside to prepare the move up later this year. What's the ideal level you are looking at for m/t?

London Paul_ex trader 01:41 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
pleasure, im still kicking myself as i was stopped (nature of the beast) on short gbp/chf position at the high!

USA Biscuit Boy 01:37 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for that chart Paul btw :)

TAS 01:13 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Australian trade deficit expected to remain fairly wide in November and building approvals expected to fall large 5.0% in November vs October

Melbourne Qindex 01:06 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:04 GMT January 4, 2004
EUR/USD : The critical level of my 3-month projection profile is positioning at 1.2690 - 1.2775. Speculative short positions will increase if the market is trading below 1.2505 and the short term target is 1.2258. On Monday the lower barrier is expected at 1.2551 // 1.2568 and the upper barrier is located at 1.2639 // 1.2657.


... 1.2551 // 1.2568, 1.2586 ... 1.2621, 1.2639 // 1.2657 ... 1.2674 ... 1.2710 ...

guangzhou lolo 01:03 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
bc, how far dou you think eur can go? i see a channel top at 1.27..any comments? tia.

USA Biscuit Boy 01:02 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Still bullish on euro for the medium term but I thought the very quick runup to 1.26+ would not be sustainable. I thought it needed more time in the 1.2450-1.2550 area to consolidate (and still do). However if the trend of offering dollars continues into next week with all players back obviously I am wrong and will look for an opportunity to buy euros again.

Mexifornia, Calimerica SNP 01:02 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
eurusd
buy ahead of 1.2586/1.2569

gbpusd
buy ahead of 1.7904

eurgbp
sell ahead of 0.7047/0.7046 since main TL @ 0.7091

eurchf
sell ahead of 1.5637/1.5612

eurjpy
sell ahead of 135.08/134.88

gbpchf
sell ahead of 2.2198/2.2137

usdjpy
buy ahead of 107.09/106.96

TTYL when europe opens - GL y'all

melbourne farmacia 00:37 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 00:29 GMT January 5, 2004
Still working on Euro. At this stage i'm coming up with two levels from different base points - 1.2906 and 1.2982. Needs more work first. GT

Memphis Charles 00:35 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy - quite an about face from your posts last week.

London Paul_ex trader 00:32 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit: Here is a link to a euro sentiment survey of medium term players:

http://www.cognitrend.com/sentiment/eurusd.gif


Paul

Sydney2 00:32 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
hi, USA Biscuit Boy
How could you become a euro bear? I squared my position but didnot short euro.

USA Biscuit Boy 00:29 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi Farmacia do you have an analysis for eur/usd? I can't believe the demand for it in the 1.26 handle at the moment. I am short euro at 1.2569. I will hold for this week and if the dollar continues to be offered into next week take my loss then.

melbourne farmacia 00:21 GMT January 5, 2004 Reply   
Well at least when the Dollar comes back, she'll come back hard and fast.
Gbp/Usd should complete the next minor cycle around 1.7979. From my daily reading, gbp's longer term cycle should finish at 1.8103 as long as 1.7515 supports.

Aud/Usd - well i was looking at 0.7545 as the end of my cycle. My new calculation suggests aud at 0.7672.