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Forex Forum Archive for 01/06/2004

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austin ferris 23:58 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Filled short $/chf at 1.2335. pullback or not to pullback that will be the question the $$ will answer tonight (and every night until it does happen)

Melbourne Qindex 23:58 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Nikkei-225 : The following analysis would cover the Chicago session.

Nikkei-225 (Daily Cycle) : The normal trading range of my daily cycle is 10721 - 11099. The lower barrier is expected at 10626 // 10721 and the upper barrier is located at 11099 // 11193.

Daily Cycle Quantised Levels
... 10626 // 10721, 10816, 10909, 11004, 11099 // 11193 ...

Van jv 23:58 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
LondonJoe 23:28 GMT January 6, 2004 ----Forgive my ignorance...can you explain...
"EUR has just completed a 13 count on the DeMark charts ...."

melbourne pizza 23:57 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
these pullbacks or corrections on USD/AUD EUR GBP WILL SUSTAIN MY LONG ON USD/CAD

Sydney KF 23:56 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Market will be lower in Japan, Slightly Higher in HK

Sydney KF 23:56 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Anyone focus in Japan Nikkei and Hong Kong Hang Seng Index?

Melbourne Qindex 23:48 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:40 GMT Spot Gold : It seems to me that spot gold would like to test the supporting strength of 412.3 - 413.8 level.

pd cumino 23:43 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
The more I think the more I am amazed at Alan Greenspan.
Today some people tease him, tomorrow they will be grateful.
This is my guess.

shanghai bc 23:40 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   

QINDEX -- Good morning..0739 in China,time for some morning tea or yamcha..Good forecasts and trades..

Melbourne Qindex 23:34 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:32 GMT - Good Morning! It is very early in your time.

pd cumino 23:34 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
sf cc 19:06 GMT January 6, 2004
It is a litte more complicated. Just my work, as some are my clients. But no problems. Good luck.

shanghai bc 23:32 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   

Lindsey has always been sake lover rather than tea lover..The man's shape tells it all..

Tasmania 23:30 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Lawrence Lindsey, former U.S. National Economic Council Director, expresses understanding of Japan's FX intervention . "it's understandable" considering China yuan issue, and adds he's personally "very sympathetic" toward Japan's intervention policy

Nihon Keizai Shimbun

Melbourne Qindex 23:28 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD & GBP/USD  Weekly Cycle Analyses . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

LondonJoe 23:28 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR has just completed a 13 count on the DeMark charts which validate or strengthen the wisdom of Q-Index analysis and comment that a pullback from here is iminent. The last time we saw a 13 count was 9th Sep 2003 - which at the time EUR was 1.0795 .. it gave a buy signal then on the selloff from the 1.1930 june 2003 highs... anyone with access to a bloomberg terminal look at EUR GEG 5 1 , TD sequential study,,,

Melbourne Qindex 23:24 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : the following commet is still valid.

Melbourne Qindex 00:04 GMT January 4, 2004
EUR/USD : The critical level of my 3-month projection profile is positioning at 1.2690 - 1.2775............

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 23:21 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
small contra buy aussie at 80

Melbourne Qindex 23:18 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:19 GMT January 4, 2004
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of my weekly cycle frequency chart indicates that a strong pull-back is imminence. The lower barrier is expected at 1.2512 // 1.2614 and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.2818 // 1.2920. The market rhythm is represented by 102 pips (k=0.01021) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.2512 - 1.2920. (Suggestion : The odds are in favour of maintaining a short position if the market is trading below the lower barrier at 1.2512 // 1.2614).


Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.2205 ... 1.2409, 1.2512 // 1.2614, 1.2716, 1.2818 // 1.2920 ...


EUR/USD : Weekly Cycle Charts

Tasmania 23:10 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Any weakness in Australian November retail sales and building approvals data today could provide basis for market to start questioning whether RBA will raise rates in February, says ICAP Australia chief economist Ric Simes. Currently market expects February hike. Simes adds risk for retail sales data is for weaker-than-forecast rise of 0.6% from October, which could boost bonds.
AP.

oporto clubdiv 23:09 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
For more than one year I've been away, I'll watch first!

Ldn 22:38 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Reuters
Speculators boost net long Canada dlr position-CFTC
CFTC's Commitments of Traders

Perth AS 22:31 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Triguboff's doomsday scenario a jolt for Reserve Bank
LINK
Before the statement, an interest rate rise in February or March was a virtual certainty. Macfarlane will know now that any rate rise decision carries much greater risk than was obvious two weeks ago.

And the banks will need to re-examine their mistakes of 1990 and make sure they don't repeat them. At that time, they withdrew credit for purchases of a wide range of property, causing huge falls in the market which led to big bank losses. People could not buy certain sorts of property because finance was not available and that jeopardised existing loans because values slumped

Perth AS 22:26 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Just one other point that AUD buyer should know . We are having an election later this year, and God forbid Labour gaining power , this would send the Australian Dollar sharply lower as one building blocks has been the good management of the economy by Costello .

Dallas GEP 22:19 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Hello Friends. Dollar correction VERY possible tonight. Swing could be viscious, I would run stops and NOT try to close anything at market. Some platforms are effectively running 8-10 wide by how they are TWEAKING feeds. POUND IMO Most likely candidate for significant short w/i 24 hours. I would take 10-15 pip gains and RUN. THEN get back in on continuance with fairly tight stops. YEN pairs are EXTREMELY dangerous especially the RACEHORSE gbp/jpy.

Gen dk 22:15 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Rye, NY et 22:13 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Perth AS 21:50 GMT January 6, 2004
Thanks very much for the article........

Perth AS 21:50 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
NYC NYC the article is pointing out that although the two have high deficits - the US one is structured differently , (infact I read an article recently that pointed out the Asian intervention goes most of the way to cover the deficit needs .) Australia without the high interest rates would find it impossible to finance the deficit and also it points out that the US deficit is in USD whereas the Australian is foreign currency debt. Once rates start to smother the housing market then the economy will suffer watch for the housing data this week.

Chicago 21:39 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Is Tsy Sec. Snow still scheduled to speak tomorrow? If so, at what time?. thanks.

Dublin Flip 21:35 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
AS I have been quite a trumpeter of the USD sell story (and been long ozz and europeans for two years) but yes there are some big divergences in theory. It's going to get very complicated over the next tweleve months and Australia and Britain have some major problems so they won't be looking as stellar at times. Australia has had two big things going for it- commodities courtesy of china and the int rate differential.
China is looking like it's heading for some headwinds in Q2 and that may slow the veracity of the USD sell-off. Australia and Britain have some major consumer debt problems and is the reason for the higher rates. At the moment they have been ignored while US have become the focus. I think we start to see some two speed moves as Asia takes over the USD weakness (perhaps after an initial USD squeeze everywhere)

NYC NYC 21:34 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Aussie has high interest rates that makes it easier to attract capital. US rates are at 45 yr lows.

nyc jk 21:32 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
AS - thanks for that post, interesting that the "reasons" most are purporting for the USD decline are the current account deficit and the rising debt from the budget deficit, yet as the article points out Australia has larger of both on a % of GDP basis yet the AUD has risen substantially against USD...

Perth AS 21:11 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Tony Makin: Follow US lead for best bang from our booming buck
The main reason: a fear that the $US550 billion ($716 billion) current account deficit, which now exceeds 5 per cent of US national income, is unsustainable.

So why is the local dollar so strong when Australia's current account deficit is actually bigger than that of the US?

Good Article worth a read

Chicago 20:50 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Using this little rally in the dollar here to get out of my short cable position. With any luck I will be out for scratch. Still think we head down over the next month so I will look to re-enter at a better level.

SanFrancisco tg 20:27 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
well cc, not always but I have made sure I am straight on things so I can speak the truth, which can be a hard thing for a lot of people to swallow at times. It was for me in the past when I was ignorant.

Looking to sell NZD approaching 6800.

sf cc 20:16 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
tg - as ever you are right.

SanFrancisco tg 20:14 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
cc - the same people complaining right now about the US doing too much are the same ones saying we didn't do enough to prevent 911. What does your comment have to do with markets?

Athens 20:11 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
OK Dolphin, no problem. Personally I am still shocked by the air tragedy over the Red Sea (whatever the cause). I had just returned from holiday with my family and for a while I put myself in the position of those poor souls, parents and kids flying back from a nive holiday... What can one say... Sure, thank you for your kind words.

Geneva 20:08 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
With all the respect to the euro, and I am a euro bull for some time. I think its a time to be a dollar bull. My year range is
1.05-1.33 , and the upper range is not sure. so I wiill start to look to buy dollars.....

Eilat Dolphin 20:02 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Nothing political at all, Athens. Technical rather. It's just that the fear we all feel is unjustified, even irrational, and I thought it seemed worth to state it.

Let me add my best wishes and to extend my congratulations and thanks for the quality of your posts.

Athens 19:52 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin, I am not against security and I don;t understand your question. I simply said that there have been too many false alarms to such a degree that actually make air flights an adventure. But I don't wish to extend a political discussion further here, so I stop. I feel you are trying to spark a political discussion.

Edi Geo 19:49 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
should? are you for real?

sf cc 19:48 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
I was watching it on TV as it unfolded and wanted to shoot the Faux News guy for making a big hoo-haa. (1) How is a single terrorist supposed to take over a whole plane? It should be clear by now that it's not just terrorists against sky marshal, but against all 300+ passengers on the flight. (2) It's supposed to land in Cincinnati in 1 hr - so it was overland already. Unless the guy had a beef against Proctor and Gamble (itchy diapers?), there were much better targets along the eastern seaboard. (3) Military aircraft escorting a civilian jet - totally stupid as following so closely will tip off any potential terrorist that they really have nothing to lose now. Air to air missiles can be fired from miles away.....

Before NYer's tell me to remember Ground Zero... my point is that the so-call security measures are more farcical than effective.

Eilat Dolphin 19:44 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Not psychoric nor paranoïac. What do you want a couple of terrorists to do on a plane ? (Besides possibly blowing it down). You have noticed that there were no hijacking since Sept 12 2001. Those days are over.

The Sinaï crash could (should) be an inside crew job imo, as planes wings do not fold etc.

Athens 19:38 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Counting the number of false alarms in international flights in the last 15 days I would say the situation is reaching the level of psychosis... Not sure if we are endangered more by terrorists or risk to become psychotic...

Livingston nh 19:36 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Flip - markets will fluctuate - But I don't believe in G'span's Productivity Miracle and the USD will reverse course at some point (picking that point has been costly to me the last few months)

Global-View 19:35 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
GVI 19:34 GMT January 6, 2004
Homeland Security indicates no military escort for the Ohio bound plane.

GVI 19:33 GMT January 6, 2004
Homeland Security: False alarm!

GVI 19:26 GMT January 6, 2004
Terror suspect on board? Delta flight from Paris to Cincinnati awaited. Plane due to land in about one hour -- Fox

GVI 19:19 GMT January 6, 2004
DJ: U.S. Military Planes escort AF plane to Ohio no details yet...

Dublin Flip 19:34 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
That's true mate. For a guy that talks in riddles he seems the consumerate salesman. I guess that's why BenBernake will take over (as opposed to anyone else) eventually. His forte is meant to be market phycology. I'd prefer a boring economist but they are in short supply these days. The polished salesman types (Kudlow for example) seem to be the deconstructed economists.
Anyway I'm off lads.

Dublin Flip 19:31 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
nh I'm not saying we will have anything catastrophic as i don't think Real estate is as overdone as Asia was but a 25% downward drift will slow things down. It every country the building industry IS the economy - as opposed to the stockmarket

Athens 19:27 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Flip, true but Alan has always been more a politician than a CBanker. He didn't make FX policy, however he has alays been backing the Treasury Secretary whoever that might be at the time. Alan is only a "magician":-) Rubin was the real decision maker...

Livingston nh 19:24 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Flip - agree very much - CBs see that - look at Australia and England - a lot of the huge growth in US Q3 GDP was based on refinance - the percentage of debt to equity in real estate is dropping despite the substantial rise in real estate "values" ( which like any market can reverse)

Dublin Flip 19:23 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Athens - Al was pretty big promoter as well.
During the Asian crisis (when the fires appeared to be going out) Greenspan repeatedly talked up the dollar and fanned the panic. Now I kinda blame those nuts at S+P and Moodys as well - you know the morons who downgrade companies and countries the day after they go into liquidation.

Dublin Flip 19:17 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
nh
it's the domestic (personal debt) I'd be worrying about. The government could probably jink things around in years to come but ordinary joes can't. The reason we need low rates (europe, us everywhere) is because a property bubble that's pricked is such an enormous part of the economy. When Japananse real estate dropped 80% it was the real cause of their problems. saying that the prices were insane to start with as opposed to just lofty that we have down her on planet earth -LOL

SanFrancisco tg 19:17 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Athens - BINGO

Athens 19:16 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Some time ago I wrote on GVI:

Athens 16:31 GMT October 23, 2003
Many people these days make jokes of Snow's "incompetence", "ignorance" etc. My view has always been that the man who actually created the bubbles and ballooned the deficts was Rubin.

And again:

Athens 18:09 GMT October 23, 2003
tg, as I wrote earlier that comment was a third party report. My personal objection to Rubin's policy is that he could possibly have gone for less spectaculat but steadier and longer lasting growth, nore sustained I mean. As I am an outsider (not living in the US) I don't know how much of that policy (super growth) could be attributed to Greenspan or even Clinton. Perhaps it was not only Rubin's choice. If I narrow the discussion to FX I remember well Rubin talking $/JPY up when in the low 130's which led to the big rally to 147 and the subsequent collapse. Well, I am traditionally against aberrations and prefer slower but more stable changes.

At that time such comments were considered by many as kind of "blasphemy" to Rubin and the US strong USD policy. As I can see, not any more...



Geneva 19:15 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
When the dollar was weak its never helped the usa, for
a very simple raison quality!!! people dont like us prodacts, the
example is japan with jpy at 80 thay never bought more. so by the end the weak dollar will just damage the usa. just now we so record sell of japan and european cars. and I its look like europe is better now then when the euro was at 0.85.

Dublin Flip 19:12 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Give me break tg.
it's like the balanced budget policy and the no rain policy.
We have a strong dollar policy at the moment but it unfortunately no-one outside grade school believe them.
Margaret Thatcher had a "strong pound policy" but no-one believed her. Al and Snow could have whatever policy they want on the currrencies (remember Snow telling us the G8 was aimed at Asia???) but the market doesn't care what they think.
The market has a "weak dollar policy". If it makes people happy to think the Fed and US treasury are happy with it too then that's just a groovy.

Anyway mate dinner calls - spk to you tom

SanFrancisco tg 19:12 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
nh - thank you, I always enjoy your insight.

SanFrancisco tg 19:08 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Dublin - I agree on the debt, it is a problem. As I mentioned there are remedies, one of which includes the tax reform I mentioned below. Others are a bit more internationally sensative and would require a heavy hand, some are subtle such as the weak dollar countering the loss of jobs to asia to a degree. We may get the job done within a few years hopefully.

Livingston nh 19:07 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Flip - but what do the debts get paid in? Company scrip = USD // did you see Krugman's NYT article about Rubin ("the legendary former Treasury secretary" he apparently never heard of Mellon and others) and his concerns about the "TWIN DEFICITS"?? -- these folks crack me up

tg - i think there is a "benign neglect" at work here which may be a weak USD policy - it is always easier to weaken than strengthen your currency - interest rates are not as important as return on capital (investment) ? strong economies send out currency - our biggest export is bonds

sf cc 19:06 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
pd cumino 18:45 GMT January 6, 2004

Actually if you look at periods when USD was relatively stronger against the Euro than Jpy, the European automanufacturers were still not able to increase market share as quickly as the Japanese.

SanFrancisco tg 19:04 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
No Dublin - The "strong dollar" policy of Clinton's regime has been widely known and is a part of the smoke and mirrors you mention made to falsely attract capital and overvalue stocks, all for political grandstanding at the detriment of the US economy and peoples savings in the end.

Thank you Cumino. I don't think there is much doubt that the massive of buying in US treasuries is only in part a hand shake between nations like Japan and the US in return for accepting intervention. Much of the buying has been an attempt to force the dollar up out of european sources but without success. Regardless the draw for US assets has to cool now some as a result of all these factors, including simple cyclical concerns. Good day all.

Dublin Flip 19:03 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
tg also I couldn't care less about double dip recessions.
As anyone on GVI would recall when Junior's Tax cuts came in, adding to the monetary stimulous and the end of Iraq War I was very bullish on the stock market (was long) and on the US economy in general. You want to throw a trill or so on the fire no problemo to get something raging. But we aren't talking history we are talking the future.

The US has an
Economy of 12 trill econommy
stock market 15 trill
Domestic debt 35 trill
and Financial liablilities of 47 trill

You don't have to be eienstein to work out that you can have a good lifestyle living on the credit but eventually people won't believe Al and Ben BS. Considering the only money that has gone stateside has been Asian CBs buying Treasuries - they don't have many people fooled at all.

pd cumino 18:58 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
I completely agree TG. But timing is all and for now some bad people is focusing that most of the best you see an you will see in US is not made with the US savings, but unfortunately with the savings of the others, the worst.

EU ZORRO 18:56 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   

Spotforex NY 18:05.....you got the message...;)...

Dublin Flip 18:55 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
kicked arse then

Dublin Flip 18:54 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
tg The reason the states kicked censored in the nineties was because Asia(asian financial crisis) and europe (reunfication of Germany + European launch) sent the world's capital into the states thanks to a stream of fairy stories about paradigm shifts, productivity miracles, exemplyfied with the tech boom. The Strong USD was a symptom not a cause. Like every good time there are never shortages of people who wish to take credit for it and easy Al and Bob Rubin are just two examples. I hardly see how the revolution in computer technology was because of any politician but I'm sure plenty (like Al Gore) consider themsleves responisble.
The Fact is the worlds Capital was sucked into the US (70% at one point) and therefore we had a pretty punchy USD and a pretty weak everything else. Now that the US economy is hooked on stimulus then it's going to get it's fill. Like any junkie I'm sure they feel pretty good at the moment but one way or the other it not going to last- the debts will eventually be need to paid.

SanFrancisco tg 18:50 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
nh - a "weak dollar policy" in general, which includes issues such as interest rate differential. The reward for hold US dollars is less than other places due to a forced lower rate. Now we are likely due for some natural slowing in GDP and stocks among other things, perhaps even some pull back, but the economics are powerful and not limited to the mere fact liquidity has been stepped up, which is simply a radical suggestion. The US has a lot of damage to repair yet, but its on the way in historic fashion and the data clearly shows it. Euro has a horizon pending as a result.

pd cumino 18:45 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
sf cc 18:26 GMT January 6, 2004 Yes, true, but take a look on numbers, in last years, and furtherly think:
1) tariffs were not a complete solution, as history showed.
2) by looking at a third market (US, for example) with EUR and JAP competitors you see well where is the burden.

Livingston nh 18:43 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
TG - that's all great but why is the USD going down against the EUR?

Dublin Flip 18:41 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Tony, your thoughts about $cad (and gold I might add), with it's "leading behaviour" of late are pretty close to mine. It's either the dollar sell of the week (on catch up) or things like Ozzie (15% above 200 day MA) are about to get a little weary.

Perth AS 18:37 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
A representative from Meat New Zealand says that the move above 0.6700 becomes very serious for exporters. Though meat prices are higher, when the NZD exchange rate is factored in to the price, exporter returns actually drop 7% over the last year. Based on Tuesday's exchange rate yesterday in NZ, real returns were down 9%.. small exporters are now laying off staff due to the rising Kiwi.

The NZ Herald

SanFrancisco tg 18:37 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Dublin - without the massive damage caused to the economy through an overblown dollar during the late 1990's, the massive loss of savings due to fake corporate values eminating from the late 1990's, the shock of 9/11, and a long list of other debilitating factors not related to this current decade, there would be very little need for stimulous. But this is about fixing damage caused prior to current time.

Regarding the deficits, that sort of comment reminds me about the "double dip recession" stuff we all heard a while back. It never happened.

Similarily, the deficits are a concern but the sky isn't falling. Frankly, the answers have already been tabled through tax reform for decades but are blocked by democrats. Even non-partisan reports show the deficit cut in half within 5 years, but it always gets blocked in favor of capital sucking social programs and the result is bankruptcy like what happened in California.

Bush is doing a great job and there is no way you can legitimately confuse the totally floundering Euro economy with a rising Euro currency. Sure the Euro economy is doing a pinch better but its due maily to factors such as interest rate differentials, gradually giving in to capitalist production principles and less on the socialism card, and only on performance to a limited extent.

I'll stop now, at this point if somebody thinks the US is in a state of management chaos they deserve to miss out.

Edi Geo 18:36 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
too old then...my old colleague on funds 10 years or so ago used to call it the loonie..I cud never be bothered asking him why

Mtl JP 18:34 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
re dlrcad and rates: worthwhile may be Friday's Deputy Governor Longworth’s speech

London Paul_ex trader 18:32 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
now part of Bk of Montreal!

London Paul_ex trader 18:31 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
i traded funds in Harris Trust Chicago 15yrs ago!!!

nyc tony 18:30 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 18:22 GMT January 6, 2004



LMAO!!!

Edi Geo 18:29 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
or too young

Edi Geo 18:28 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
London Paul_ex trader 18:26 GMT January 6, 2004
oh you mean funds!!!

haha I'm not alone..you're obv too old as well mate

sf cc 18:26 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
cumino - I think it was about 10 yrs ago (or more) that the EU required Japanese videocassette players to pass thru only 1 particular port in the middle of nowhere with special paperwork required. There are exchange rates, tariff-based trade barriers and EU-style trade barriers.

London Paul_ex trader 18:26 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
oh you mean funds!!!

Perth AS 18:25 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Rising dollar hits farmers
The surging Australian dollar could trigger a new crisis in key sections of drought-ravaged rural industries.

something to watch for

sf mike 18:24 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the goose. I knew loony but goose evades me.

Det tm 18:23 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
London Paul_ex trader 18:16 GMT January 6, 2004

Goose (or, loonie) is Canadian$

BoC meets in 2 wks too, with Dodge's underlying comment
to cut rates if too strong. I see him as loosing credibility if
BoC stands unch.

Dublin Flip 18:22 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
tg when you see headlines on the ticker about "peso's continued advance on the dollar" that something is amiss and we have overdone things or we have a new "Bananna republic" in the offing -LOL

nyc tony 18:22 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
$/CAD

Wiarton H 18:21 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
London Paul_ex trader 18:16 GMT January 6, 2004
It actualy is a Loon (Canadian bird) on our Can Dollar coin.Also known as the Goose

sf miky 18:21 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
What is the goose?

nyc tony 18:13 GMT January 6, 2004
isn't it interesting that the goose is the only currency not advancing

Livingston nh 18:17 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
The use of any single economic indicator to try to comprehend currency movements is like trying to predict the weather based on the day of the week - interest rates (there are at least three ways of measuring), economic growth, confidence, saver vs consumer economies, fiscal policy, monetary policy ex interest rates - DEM rates in mid '90s (after unification) vs '80s can't be compared to EUR - trade deficits, budget deficits as a % of what? - CNY subsidization of US consumers?

RE: CBs - ECB says intervention above a figure 1.30 or 1.35 -- be a little careful when they give you a free pass // G'span says Fed was right not trying to pop bubble but to have a policy to flood market after it popped (this from a guy who said you can't see a bubble) - Fed not looking for inflation/higher rates is the same Fed that was sure the economy would slow in 96-97 but expected higher inflation // close to clueless

London Paul_ex trader 18:16 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Goose??

Dublin Flip 18:16 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Your right tg without the enormous US double deficits who would be buying all these other currencies. Then again without the Enormous US double deficits (i.e. expensive stimulus) how much growth would there be in the US.

pd cumino 18:16 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
It is interesting to note that starting from Jan '99 in real broad terms we have USD depreciated ~5.5%, EUR appreciated ~6.0% and JPY depreciated ~13,2%.
What is interesting is that USD-JPY which went from ~113,40 depreciated ~6.6%. Indeed USD JPY followed very well USD RBEER, and it means also that JPY competitivity, as for JPY RBEER, is weighing on other shoulders.
We will see how many Jap cars will arrive in Europe.

Wiarton H 18:15 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Pssssst Tony not so loud!!!

USA Biscuit Boy 18:15 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
TG yes I think its crazy to suggest Europe or Japan are at the moment in better shape than the US. But they are doing ALOT better than they have been so hence the appreciation of the euro relative to the dollar. Remember when the euro was introduced Europe was in the terrible shape. It has improved steadily since. Sooner or later the market will refocus on the huge potential of this growing US economy instead of focusing on how Europe's economy does not suck as badly as before IMO. Then we can ride that train to Oilman's targt of 0.65 for euro :)

nyc tony 18:13 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
isn't it interesting that the goose is the only currency not advancing on the $$ today......hmmmm reminds me of about 2 weeks ago when the goose was the ONLY currency advancing vs the greenbuck. maybe it's the fortune telling goose?

Van jv 18:13 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
tg///Thanks for your comments....do not deny good recent data...but see it all as a bear market rally...see consumer note.....Overall I tried to make a case for USD correction /in part. CHF-note LT int . rates/----feel fair value somewhere arund 1.15 area ....as for Bush, did you notice that he expressed concern about USD/ need for stronger $/ --he may have better instinct than some of Fed's ....

SanFrancisco tg 18:06 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
The funny part is how some of you guys want to suggest the Euro is performing better than US markets. Do you really think the Euro is actually riding the merits of its economy with almost no GDP? Where would it be without the forced weak dollar, the recession and 9/11 with its uncontrollable pension debt, virtualy non-existent GDP, and failure to draft a constitution? Get real folks. Good day.

Perth AS 18:06 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
AFR is running a story on how
Australia's farm sector is suffering from the rising AUD

Spotforex NY 18:05 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
I was referring to your 17:55 post Zorro.....

Spotforex NY 18:05 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
EU ZORRO 17:57

so you are saying that you have hedged 75% of your long euro positon (recently??).

EU ZORRO 17:57 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   

....IMO...the Dow index will make a new High this year....+ 13000....

Wiarton H 17:57 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Not taking sides!!!
Dow in Euro terms +15% since March 2003
Dow in Euro terms -34% since Oct 2000

SanFrancisco tg 17:56 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
cc - read his 17:22 again and you will find the name Bush and subsequent nonsense about poor performance.

I won't argue stocks could do better under ordinary circumstances, but since the pre-2000 recession began and the enormous shock of 9/11 who in their right mind would expect the performance of 2003?

What part of 8.2% Gross Domestic Product are you not getting?

Lets throw in some more just for fun ...

Philadelphia Fed Survey reached a 7 year high in October 2003.

US housing (new construction) recorded a near 17-year high in September 2003.

Money Supply data continued to reflect inflation is held in check in 2003.

The ISM US Manufacturing Index confirmed a powerful manufacturing rebound, recording growth at the highest level in 20 years (1983) at 66.2.

October 2003 construction spending set a fourth straight record level, rising to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $922.0 billion.

The Philadelphia Fed Index - Business Outlook Survey of December 2003, New Orders Index showed its highest level in 23 years with a 41.8 figure.

Non-farm business productivity rose 9.4 percent annual rate in Q3 2003, the strongest pace in 20 years, or Q2 of 1983 more specifically. This is widely seen as helping US business overcome the shock of 9/11 and recession. Most economists are said to believe this will boost the standard of living in the long run although it could temper the pace of hiring in the short term.

EU ZORRO 17:55 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   

Spotforex NY 14:25.......I've no ideia.......

...I have to pay an invoice in USD next month....due to an Import from Latim America......

...I made a 75% forward this week, and looking for more 5% discount in the other 25%....... ;)

Good Luck all....!!!!

sf cc 17:50 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
tg - don't see where jv even mentioned Bush in his posts. And he makes a valid point that in Euro, Gbp or Aud terms, the US stock markets haven't been too hot to trot.

SanFrancisco tg 17:38 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
jv, you are way off and your obvious dislike of a non-left President like Bush is clouding your sense of reality, including your idea that stocks drive foreign exchange.

Low interest rates and slashed taxes have significantly helped US companies rebound from the recession that technically began before Bush took office, and of course the shock of 9/11. A great move by the US admin and Gspan.

Inflation has been forced to a 38 year low. Rates will rise and so will the dollar in time, but until then the US powerhouse economy is building steam. Foreign capital investment in the US doesn't remain strong by sheer luck. If that were the case the global economic system is just a flip of the coin which makes zero sense.

If this is a poor job I'll eat a mad cow :

The Dow Jones closed up 25% for the year, its best performance since 1996.

The S&P 500 closed up a very strong 25% for the year.

The Nasdaq closed up a very strong 50% for the year.

The S&P Midcap Index closed the year at an all time high.
The Russell Index closed just 8% under its all time high set in 2000.

Individual major corporate stock gains were seen over 300% in some cases, such as AVAYA at 427%, or Tessco up 300% from 2001-2002, Dynegy up 265%.

Others closed with strong gains under 300% such as Intel at 105%.

Some smaller stocks closed at astounding growth rates such as the 3,131 % gain of Carrier Access.

The pivotal four-week average of US unemployment claims declined as of December 2003 to the lowest level since shortly after the Sept. 11, 2001 tragedy.

Bear in mind this is being done while cleaning out through prosecution, the historic level of corruption eminating from the late 1990's which means the US corporate field is sitting on hard ground instead of a house of cards like it was.

Van jv 17:22 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
I think Fed and Treasury have been dreaming and were just lucky -till now getting low $ and not a significant cap. out-flow....mainly due to return on Stock market about balancing loss on USD....when SM starts correcting/ note US consumer debt 1.98 Trill./ , USD must move higher to attract capital or else....bad for Bush....thus.....

Chicago 17:16 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Van j.v: I would take it one step further and say that there may be an even stronger correlation with FWD rates (ie mkt rate expectations), say, 1y+1yr rate or maybe even 6m+2yr rate.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 17:14 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
ok, enough for tonight.

let's see how aud/nzd will develop.

the pair bounces up and down v. frequent, think that the next leg is coming.

Van jv 17:05 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
USD///RE frequent argument that USD decline is driven by low US interest rates in is not a good one.......Fx is historically correlated with long term rates, but not s.t rates.....
Long term rates are roughly similar for US,EUR, GB../about 4.7, 4.4, 5.0%/ and are much lower for CH-3%and JP/Athens thanks for Ref./----
Net Equity Flow is is key to FX direction.
I...

Tallinn viies 17:05 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
left sell orders to 1,2800

beirut jb 17:04 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
long eur/$ intraday is make or break here 12770 level

Tallinn viies 16:54 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
oki guys,
got to run now.

what is interesting today is that many customers who have been sitting comfortable on the long euro positions started to call near 1,28...

rakesh hyderabad 16:51 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
hi chicago...
i do agree with u but i see 1.8350 first and then blow 1.7500...gl gt

beirut jb 16:48 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 16:36

well it need to tick below 12738 on hourly basis to go south,

12720 and 127 should provide support then,

I m still waiting a clear break of 12770 to test 128 and hod again

GL GT

Chicago 16:47 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Am short cable from 1.8210. Stop above 1.8400. Looking for a retracement down to 1.75-1.76 area. Timeframe within a month. Any thoughts?

Wiarton H 16:46 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Athens 16:24 GMT January 6, 2004
Secret anything to do with moves in Gold today??

Tallinn viies 16:45 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
heard that it was scandinavian central bank who sold euros over 1,28

HK Kevin 16:36 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Next hr may see more downside action on EUR/$.

beirut jb 16:30 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Athens 16:24 GMT January 6, 2004

Good for u if u know it :)

Since I trust and respect ur view I will remember that it whould be Soon :)

HK [email protected] 16:28 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Seems like many want to scrap to 1.2850. Which is still possible.

Athens 16:24 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
beirut jb, thanks, happy new year to you, too.
When and from where it will start? ah, that's my little secret;-)

beirut jb 16:19 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Athens 16:11 GMT January 6, 2004

Hi mate and good and happy 2004 for u and ur relatif,

I agree that after ~1400 pip non stop up for eur/$ someone should expect a nice correction
but IMHO after this 127 break it could happen at 130~131 level, anyway the big question is When this correction will start???

GL GT

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 16:15 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
buy some eur/gbp .7!

Porto PJT 16:14 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 15:56 , a ordely one way street and consistent rise, but the famous words, "irracional exuberance", come to my mind.

beirut jb 16:14 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
eur/$ long has to break 12770 again to go further FWIW

Athens 16:11 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
I hear people calling this a USD correction and a bargain buying new USD selling opportunity. If a 50-60 pip dip today is a correction of an already huge trend then I am an FX ignorant. I expect tosee the Dollar correcting by not less than 10 big figures v. EUR and CHF rather sooner than later.

SA Bok 16:06 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp - Besides actual physical repatriation(traditional) what other means do you think they can/will repatriate ? TIA

beijing road 16:04 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy : agree with you.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 15:59 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Bok, they will, the form of repatriation is a matter.

HK Kevin 15:59 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, exactly my idea. Only eur/jpy lower could stop EUR/$ rising.

Tallinn viies 15:59 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Global-View 15:55 - who is me? [email protected]

beirut jb 15:58 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi Traders,

Happy and greeny new year,

may be it's time to long this euro again

USA Biscuit Boy 15:56 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
I agree Viies. ECB officials have already stated they would not intervene unless there is a sustained move above 1.35. The rise of the euro has been very orderly. Definately needs to consolidate aboce 1.27 now for next few sessions tho for a sustained move up thru the 1.28's and 1.29's. I think more than anything we are just going to hit 1.3000 for the psychological gratification of reaching this target.

SA Bok 15:55 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab - What IF they(Japanese) dont repatriate this year as usual ... where is USDJPY then as shorts bail ...
IMVHO

Global-View 15:55 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Email me then

Tallinn viies 15:53 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Global-View 15:52 - u have my wrong email

Global-View 15:52 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 15:49 GMT January 6, 2004 - pls check your email

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 15:49 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
wonderful top picker..... Kevin.. GT and GL.

am waiting the japs to start their crazy repatriation soon.


yen is the last major to strengthen against USD.

Tallinn viies 15:49 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
FWIW
MMS - Hearing rumours from the US Treasury market of[ECB
INTERVENTION] with this helping the pair lower to 1.2740-45. It is likely,
if the ECB was acting, that losses would be much more severe than this and
as such the talk is being taken with a large pinch of salt. Eur/Usd met
some good fund name and Middle East sellers above 1.2800 and it looks as
though this has capped and prompted a mini reversal of partial session
gains.

HK Kevin 15:44 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, my first trade of the year. short some EUR/JPY at 135.96 two hrs ago.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 15:39 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
v. tempted to buy some here at .7005 though.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 15:38 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, but this might take some years.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 15:36 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, prior Christmas to echo nk long term target ;)

How are you doing?

I decide to take some breaks after catering some aud/jpy trades.

Toronto Silverfox 15:33 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Gold seems to be losing its lustre for the mom'
may help usd a bit

Ldn Cashman 15:27 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Silverfox, remember a couple of months ago both Soros and Buffet were talking how they'd shorted the Dollar. Diodn't they do well.......

HK Kevin 15:26 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
HI hk ab. When did you change your ID to hk ab 0.88?

USA Biscuit Boy 15:25 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Good morning guys. More profits for those dollar shorts overnight. I think we are in for a lot more with all these top pickers still about. Word on the street is BOJ will not be defending a certain number but rather just trying to slow the slide. 105.00 should be defended for a while IMO tho. GL and GT.

Tallinn viies 15:24 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
yes, I remember executed one customer stoploss at 1,3419...

slv sam 15:18 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 14:00 GMT January 6, 2004
took small short e/$ position s/l 1.2860 for short term thou!GT

slv sam 14:04 GMT January 6, 2004
will take profit at 1.2760 soon!GT

profits taken!

hk ab 0.88 15:16 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 10:34 GMT December 30, 2003

LONDON 10:08 -- Good evening..Since it is so quiet today,from medium-term trader's point of view,Eur/Usd has been trading roughly in a band of 1500-1000 pips from 250 dma lines for well over a decade..Once it trends away from 250 dma into 1000-1500 pips range,it tends to come back to 300-500 pips range towards the same line on profit takings..So,given 250 dma being around 1.14 at present,it is already well into the pull back range from medium-term trader's point of view..The maxium range could be up to 1.29 level with possible pull back to 1.20-115 range later..That is how some medium-term players see the market odds at present but given thin market at present,it is neither easy to unload nor easy to load..BTW,we have bounced off from 250 dma in Sep and still riding that bounce..But once 250 dma is breached on the down side one day,that may be the end of Euro's happy ride and time to start selling every bouces for medium-term players..Imho..Good trades..



Food worth some thoughts..... Stick it on my forehead.

Toronto Silverfox 15:16 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Rumour Old-Man Soros selling Euros in Chicago

SA Bok 15:15 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR then would/could go to 1.4550 odd ??

Spotforex NY 15:14 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Thanks you for the info !!!!!

London Paul_ex trader 15:14 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
hey spot i remember $/DM 3.4785!!

SA Bok 15:14 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Athens , NY Spot FX - Thanks - puts my 1.3500 theory out LOL .. was also in interbank markets then .. my memory going LOL ... GL and GT

Athens 15:11 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex, 1.3440.

GOT PK 15:03 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
spot - 1.3430

Tallinn viies 15:00 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
at 66 covered other half fwiw

Spotforex NY 14:58 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
SA Bok - I was in the bank market when the Dollar was making post WWII lows....I remember the 1.34 level in Dollar Mark being the low end in April 1995 (exact level escapes me....)

SA Bok 14:53 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 14:30 - Thanks , the low I have for old USDDEM is 1.4500 odd and that equals the much (lately) talked about
1.3500 ECB level ... may I ask where you get your low ...
TIA

van Gecko 14:53 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf rarely moves 50 figures over the l/m/t without some sort of substantial retracement in between.. on each of the last two occasions when it touched the 1.23/1.22's in the early 90's the little dollar rallied 30+ figures up to the 1.50's before another m/t multiple figure dump..
perhaps a 'double crossed slam dung act' for the raging conti are not that far away?

HK Kevin 14:52 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Athens, it's glad to see you visiting this forum more frequently.
USD/CAD is already trading above the daily open rate. Idf it's an early bird, then hope we may also seen an reverse day in EUR.

LAX-LGB SNP 14:47 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
going to wait another 90-120 minutes and IF formations persist then

sell gbp$ below 1.8200
buy $chf above 1.2282
sell aud$ below 0.7691
sell eurgbp below 0.7008 or buy above 0.7021
eurchf still far from ideal short @ 1.58 but if 1.57 caps price then sell below 1.5661
also sell gbpchf below 2.2368

Athens 14:45 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/$ didn't sustain any marginal gains above the line and bounced off modestly.

Gaza Ibiza 14:45 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
there is a myrid of offers over the fig ...fund and bank related...also some now on gbp!

Tallinn viies 14:44 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
at 77 covered half of my short fwiw

london rb 14:42 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
re sf mike...think u r right my frd, i think gbp and eur now look heavy for today so maybe for v v short term gain worth a small sell

london rb 14:41 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
re gaza...cud be re ecb, but had heard v v large stop loss order over the fig level talk is eur 1/2 yards..

Porto PJT 14:41 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
tks Ibiza

SF Mike 14:40 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
I think the run is over for now. Seel a little GBP here @1.8233 for 1.8158

Gaza Ibiza 14:38 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
talk of covert offers from ecb over the fig..rumored!

Livingston nh 14:33 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq - yeah if Snow believes in the J -curve he may be smiling -- his risk in the RR equation is what happens next in an unbalanced market - I thought Parmalat might have been a trigger but no reaction// if the market is overstretched evn some insignificant event could be enough to make Sec Snow a little uncomfortable

HK Kevin 14:31 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Anyone know why USD/JPY looks freezing? In my chart readings, this pair is the best sell.

Spotforex NY 14:30 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
very insightful post, thanks!!!!!!!!
Thus the old Dollar Mark is more than 18 big figures away from its "post WWII" lows.....Maybe that is why the FED members are saying that the Dollar is still 'strong' on a trade weighted average....

SA Bok 14:24 GMT January 6, 2004
Old GBPDEM now 2.7923 at the Soros 93 level at which he broke the BOE ... 2.7900 bid 2.8100 offered , yours at 2.7900
GBP 1.5 Billion open the next morning at 2.4100 odd offered
Even then interest rates of 15% in the O/N did not help

USDDEM now 1.5292

Ulaanbaatar Tulga 14:30 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi all? Falling dollar is not good for Asia.

London MJM 14:28 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
viies// Good day.. I sold cable today at 1.8210, with value one week. Since then we have seen new highs.. Impressive this panic of selling USD, especially against this GBP.. GL!

dc fxq 14:26 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 14:05 GMT

"CBs are talking to each other no doubt"

And perhaps muttering to tthemselves as well. This scenario is playing into Snow's hand perfectly!

Spotforex NY 14:26 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
scream!!!!!

Spotforex NY 14:25 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
EU ZORRO 14:24

Any idea when that Frenchman will kick and screen?????

EU ZORRO 14:24 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   

....Hello all...!!!!

...OLÉ 1.3000.....!!!!

SA Bok 14:24 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Old GBPDEM now 2.7923 at the Soros 93 level at which he broke the BOE ... 2.7900 bid 2.8100 offered , yours at 2.7900
GBP 1.5 Billion open the next morning at 2.4100 odd offered
Even then interest rates of 15% in the O/N did not help

USDDEM now 1.5292

No end in sight , maybe once 10 am EST options roll off we see some sort of downward movement



HK Kevin 14:22 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Sold Eur/JPY at 135.96.

Quebec Yqb 14:18 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Looks like much of the moves in the currency markets have already been played out for the week. Besides any whipsaws we may see during economic news that comes out later in the week.

Mexifornia, Calimerica SNP 14:16 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Dhahran maz 08:50 GMT January 6, 2004
hey maz - welcome to GV

Mexifornia, Calimerica SNP 14:13 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
with reference to 08:39 GMT January 6, 2004

never managed to enter eurusd, gbpusd or usdchf
shorted eurgbp but flat now

eurchf still far from shorting levels @ 1.58

buying eurjpy & gbpjpy ahead of finally worked out :-) more than a coupla cent's worth now

selling usdcad still open (sorry for typo re: levels earlier) and usdjpy also open but fail to see much progress

gonna go eat the unlimited pancake breakfast @ IHOP now :-)

Athens 14:09 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Long term (since 2002) EUR/USD chart. The upper parallel line (of a possible channel) is currently coming in around 1.2800.

Livingston nh 14:05 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
If this last month is the acceleration phase of USD valuation then there should be a "crisis" soon - private (LTCM 1998) or public (Mexico 1995) or international consensus (Plaza 1985) - the fundies out of whack with technicals and one way trading // a lot of fuel just needs a spark - the Rumor Effect should give a hint as to the vulnerable currencies

CBs are talking to each other no doubt

Tallinn viies 14:04 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
BTW on the eursud we are over 55% higher from the lows seen less than 40 months ago

slv sam 14:04 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
will take profit at 1.2760 soon!GT

Stockholm za 14:02 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
fwiw.....
1,2534 = 1,2718 = 1,2952 = fibo
1,2835 = VALUE
EUR/USD


Tallinn viies 14:01 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
sodl euros m,ore at 1,2801

slv sam 14:00 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
took small short e/$ position s/l 1.2860 for short term thou!GT

LA ARTOFYEN 13:59 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
CK, the Roman Legions stuck around for centuries....Hannibal may come to slaughter the gbp bull but it seems that all profitable roads of late lead to Rome!!

SA Bok 13:58 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD from early September lows - 1.0762 to 1.2782 today
0.202 (or 20 cent move) in 4 months

GBPUSD - From 1.5800 odd to 1.8260 in basically same period
0.246 (24.6 cents ) move ..

Thats big devaluations in a short period but does not seem to want to abate ...

Officials will continue to mouth of and create what they dont want to create a "disorderly market" ...

Maybe they have already created this for thier own exporters ...

San Roque CK 13:50 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
The run up in €/$ cannot continue, i feel like its the calm before the storm. Like when Hannibal came over the Alps unexpectedly with his elephants before he slaughtered the Roman Armies.

SA Bok 13:45 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Absolutley amazed .. the FM'S and CB must be really short the USD so they just keep fueling the fire .. USD weakness , yet US is growing amazing how market does not believe the US numbers and totally ignores EU data ...
Blind buying out there .. the selling will see blood ...
Nasdaq crash in the making in currencies
GL and GT to all

Tallinn viies 13:40 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, Euro of $1.25 to $1.30 is worrying - German wiseman (Reuters)

Tallinn viies 13:37 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Im not sure where will be the top today but one thing clear to me - every tick higher needs more and more works...

currently we are trading 40 tick over my daily higher bollinger band. 50 ticks higher rarely seen.
also we are trading 25 ticks over monthly higher bollinger band
FWIW

Bonn db 13:37 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Any ideas about GBPUSD within next couple of hours.

slv sam 13:36 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
good correction soon for e/$?GT

Quebec YQb 13:30 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
beijing road 13:04 GMT

It will be Usd/Chf next for what?

Gen dk 13:16 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hialeah PF 13:16 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Liverpool CE 12:45 GMT January 6, 2004
Thank you I am just doing that to check for myself, since no trader are equal

beijing road 13:04 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
it will be usd/chf show soon?

Liverpool CE 12:45 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Hialeah PF
Why don't you take the free trial for a couple of weeks and have a look for yourself. You can also wade through the monthly results and form an opinion from that.

GVI john 12:35 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
This report serves as the basis for discussions between professional traders twice daily on GVI. These comments are the personal opinions of the author and may not be suitable for trading purposes. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]

STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2755…$/yen 106.25
DJIA -30 pts… 10-yr 4.34%, -5 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
One thing that I have been consistently wrong about for the past quarter is that Europe would sit still and allow Asian currencies to steadily lose ground against the euro as the dollar weakens. I heard a report today that BOJ intervention today alone was $6bln in the $/yen. Now I wonder if the absolute dollar levels here are not a concern then the pace of the dollar’s decline could be. I have been guessing that Snow’ closed door agreement with key Asian central banks is to allow them to intervene as long as they invest the proceeds in U.S. government securities, and thereby keep global long term interest rates low by keeping down U.S. rates. I guess we worry about this accumulation of overseas debt holdings tomorrow?

I hear that German auto makers are complaining about the impact of the weak dollar on sales. My question is where have they been? Eur/$ forwards out to one year and beyond have been virtually flat during the entire dollar slide. In fact, the forward dollar can be sold at a PREMIUM to spot. Even against the yen the forward dollar discount is relatively small. I realize that it is chancy to do long term hedging in the forward markets for a number of reasons, but it is only prudent to protect one’s exposures out 12 to 18 months. In fact the forward dollar PREMIUM against the euro could be fueling the dollar’s slide. In all cases that I can recall, a weak currency has sold at a forward discount. It will move to a discount when officials begin to worry.

The ECB meets on Thursday. Its refi rate is 2.0%, but one month money is still 2.07% and 3mo 2.11%. Deposit rates have eased but still remain above the current Refi rate. When they move to a discount, we should take notice.

Gold remains a safety valve for the weak dollar and oil prices are firmer as a cold front hits the eastern portion of North America. So far this has been a mild winter on balance, so I see no need for panic in the energy markets.

Tuesday is an active day on the U.S. data front, with Weekly Chain store sales, the ISM Services PMI, December Factory Orders and the Challenger Layoff Survey due.

CALENDAR:
TUESDAY, JANUARY 6, 2004
11:00 GMT- US- UK- Dec CBI Distributive Trades survey
15:00 GMT- US- Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: vs. 60.4 in Nov, see 62.0
15:00 GMT- US- Nov Factory orders: vs. +2.2% in Oct, see -1.4%

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 7, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN- January Money Market Forecast
00:30 GMT- AUS- November Retail Trade, vs. +1.2%
00:30 GMT- AUS- November Building Approvals
11:00 GMT- EUR- Dec Business Sentiment: vs. -7 in Nov
11:00 GMT- EUR- Dec Consumer Sentiment: vs. -16 in Nov
UK- Two-day Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting begins
12:00 GMT- US- MBA Refinancing Index
14:30 GMT- US- API/DOE Weekly Energy Inventories
15:00 GMT- CDA- December Ivey PMI

THURSDAY JANUARY 8, 2004
23:30 GMT-JPN- 10-Year JGB Auction
23:50 GMT-JPN- Weekly Portfolio Flows
08:55 GMT- GER- Dec Unemployment: vs. 18K (SA), +33 (NSA) in Nov
11:00 GMT- EUR- Nov Producer Prices: vs. +0.1% in Oct
11:00 GMT- EUR- Nov Unemployment Rate
12:00 GMT- UK BOE MPC decision
12:45 GMT-ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision
13:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
15:00 GMT- US- Nov Wholesale Inventories
20:00 GMT- US- Nov Consumer Credit

FRIDAY, JANUARY 9, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN- November Leading Indicators
00:30 GMT- AUS- Trade vs. –A$1.648 mln
07:00 GMT- GER- Trade: vs. +EUR10.8 bln in Oct
07:00 GMT- GER- Current Account: vs. +EUR6.3 bln in Oct
09:30 GMT- UK- Nov Trade: vs. –GBP4.4 bln in Oct
11:00 GMT- GER- Nov preliminary Industrial Orders: vs. +2.3% in Oct
12:00 GMT- CDA- December Employment:
Rate vs. 7.5%
Jobs vs. +54,100
13:30 GMT- US- Dec Employment:
Non-Farm Payrolls: vs. +57,000 in Nov, see +150,000
Unemployment Rate: vs. 5.9% in Nov, see 5.9%

Madrid GLR 12:31 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn- that is good information. Thx. GLR

Tallinn viies 12:28 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
FWIW
MMS: [EUR/USD] firmed in late Asian trade, taking out 1.2700 and related stops as it soared higher on the back of US name buying. While industry groups continue to cite 1.3000 as a pain barrier, while politicians have offered concerns about the speed of gains, rather than the current rate. Dealers report buying linked to talk of hefty stops above 1.2800, with this rumoured to be worth Eur 1.5bln and linked to in the money Euro calls with a KO at 1.2800. This rolls off Wed and thus stops are set to grow as the expiry nears. Eurozone PMI reports were largely ignored, with growth registered, though at a slightly weaker pace than Nov. Overall US data (ISM, Challenger) should not impact too much on sentiment, with the market dominated by fund based flows.

Hialeah PF 12:19 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
If anyone trading or following the Gen dk signals from from this Forum please could you tell me your feelings or trading experience with it?
I am planning to follow it but need some advise
Thanks

Miami OMIL 11:54 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
FWIW never show your hand to the dealers they have the advantage anyway. If you keep your stop loss in your head they can never stop hunt your position IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

kuwait RH 11:52 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
ln 11:44 GMT January 6, 2004
CHART FROM MY DEALER SHOWED 134.30/33, ONLY ONCE. GOOD LUCK

ln 11:44 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Pretoria PG 11:10 GMT. I have a low of 134.24 on Reuters min chart and it was around here a couple of times.

Johannesburg cd 11:42 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Pretoria - have you contacted your dealer and told him about it? Depending on the dealer, some have a sympathetic ear, similar thing has happened to me while trading CFD's and they reversed the deal. Is your dealer local?

Tallinn viies 11:39 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Pretoria PG 11:29 - you can mention NFA.

Melbourne Qindex 11:29 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:04 GMT January 4, 2004
EUR/USD : The critical level of my 3-month projection profile is positioning at 1.2690 - 1.2775.


Melbourne Qindex 01:44 GMT January 6, 2004
EUR/USD : The lower barrier of my daily cycle is expected at 1.2635 // 1.2650 and the upper barrier is located at 1.2744 // 1.2759.


... 1.2635 // 1.2650, 1.2666 ... 1.2697 ... 1.2728, 1.2744 // 1.2759 ...

Edi Geo 11:29 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
134.38 is low I've been told from EBS FWIW

Pretoria PG 11:29 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies - Thank you, is there anything that I can do about it?

Tallinn viies 11:25 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Pretoria PG 11:10 - I dont have euryen EBS data but according to my data it hasnt been tarding down there

melbourne farmacia 11:21 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
It may be premature but i've just covered all Euro longs from pre xmas as 1.2757 printed.
melbourne farmacia 02:58 GMT January 5, 2004
Euro's current cycle ( short term ) completed at 1.2672 from 1.2423 base. Break of 1.2672 puts 1.2757 in sight. fwiw

Pretoria PG 11:10 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies - I went long EURJPY at 22:54 est. Buy at 134.52 Stop at 134.28 According to my charts the lo traded after that was 134.48. My dealer took my stop! Is their any way to confirm that the price actually came down to 134.24 or must i use another dealer? I've been trading forex for 3 years and I have seen differences in bids on different charts, but its usually less than 3 pips. In this case its 24 pips. Please advise

Tallinn viies 11:10 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
MMS
Comments from [REYNDERS] suggest current levels of EUR/USD] are not
too much of a problem for the Belgium Finmin, though too rapid a gain
would cause concern. These are pretty sensible words to offer the market
as while it represents an acknowledgement of current levels being pretty
much the long term average, it also expresses concerns about the speed of
gains - an area Finmins can tackle without looking interventionist, as
most Govts have previously expressed concerns about moves happening in a
disorderly manner. Separately the [DIW] has hit the newswire again,
warning that while 1.2500 is not a big problem for exporters, 1.30 would
be difficult.

Hong Kong nt 11:02 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 10:45 GMT -- Perhaps, BOE doesn't want to see 1.90 flashing on the screen...

Athens 10:54 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
My 1.8230 capped cable rally at least on a first challenge. I am out of here for now, good luck.

Cairo MDR 10:52 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
We have 2 probabilities:
1. if 2750 holds, euro will correct to 2725 and then it might target 2780 again in late US session
2. if doesn't hold, we will seee 2780 very soon/
That's IMVHO

Tallinn viies 10:45 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
btw, shorted the euro here at 1,2750 for a quick contra trade

Dhahran maz 10:45 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Dolphin ; good luck

Tallinn viies 10:45 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong nt 10:35 - dont understand u.
why BOE should lower rates if they just hiked?

Ga Lee 10:44 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
guangzhou lolo 10:27 GMT January 6, 2004
could very well be lolo, swiss bankers I believe are regarded as among the very best..thank you for taking the time to respond..

nyc beyonding_destiny 10:42 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
guangzhou lolo 10:27 GMT January 6, 2004
i think gbp/chf geting strong because someone prevent usd/chf further fall, last time 1.2780, this time 1.2280, quite interesting

I agree, I have long gbp/chf many times during range bounding last couple of weeks, this move is non-sense at all from the perspect of this single pair. my T/P ever was 2.232 and 2.248, but I don't think this rally will live any longer when either Chf break 1.226 or Gbp in correction.

Hong Kong nt 10:35 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 10:33 GMT -- Perhaps, BOE may join ECB and give a surprise to the market...

Athens 10:35 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Oops in 10:33 1.7230 should read 1.8230.

Tallinn viies 10:33 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong nt 10:30 - I believe they are not considering it before 1,40 seen

Athens 10:33 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Cable now trading just in front of my next resistance 1.7230 mentioned earlier.

Athens 10:31 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Lee, a pleasure. Actually long $/CHF here under 1.23 is the best pair I would recommend to anyone who looks for a significant Dollar correction soon and is prepared to afford the short term pressure as this can be only a medium term position. Good luck.

Hong Kong nt 10:30 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Hope ECB may slash rate by 25bp this Thur...

guangzhou lolo 10:27 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
i think gbp/chf geting strong because someone prevent usd/chf further fall, last time 1.2780, this time 1.2280, quite interesting

Ga Lee 10:24 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Thank you very much for your time Athens, certainly better than any explanation I've got at the moment, will have another look..thanx again :-)

Hong Kong nt 10:24 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
HK AB--see if "big figure" effect, i.e. euro 1.30, swiss 1.20, eurjpy 135, usdjpy 105, gbpjpy 195, gbp 1.85, aud 0.80, cad 1.25 may help dollar to establish a decent bounce this time...

Perth AS 10:23 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
German think-tank
DIW. DIW says the euro rise has cancelled out the positive impact of the June
ECB rate cut. Last week, a G7 'source' suggested that it is 'not in Europe's
interest' for EUR/USD to trade clearly above 1.20. Reuters newswire

Athens 10:18 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Sorry for typo, should be GBP/CHF.

Athens 10:17 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Lee, as far as I am concerned my model favours GBP/CJG upside and by technical standards I don't have this pair O/B at current levels. But, of vourse, this is my personal technical explanation.

Perth AS 10:17 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Just been watching Bloomberg Barclays Capital say they are expecting a 10% correction in the Dollar from here soon, FWIW

Ga Lee 10:15 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
any ideas why this gbp/chf is so strong today, usually gbp/chf and eur/$ workin opposite directions, not so this week so far..

melbourne farmacia 10:14 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
From my long term reading of Gbp/usd, anything over 1.8103/53 is an overshoot in my book. The last time gbp overshot my technical indicator, ( June 03 ) a new high made at 1.6904, followed by mid year correction. Some might say gbp has been overdone since mid 1.7500's, but based on my fib tools from 1.5608 base, 1.8103/53 should end this 5 month cycle. GT

slv sam 10:13 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
squared all short US$ positions. will wait to reload when 3% correction from this level.GT

Hong Kong nt 10:13 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
HK AB--guess EUR/GBP shall be kept below .7050 for rest of this week and EUR/JPY 136 is a sell...fwiw

Athens 10:10 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
My nearest EUR/$ resistance 1.2745 and 1.2765, nearest support 1.2695 and 1.2655-60.

Hong Kong nt 10:10 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
HK AB--Re: AUD/CAD, I'm thinking of re-test of 1.006 (0.795 x 1.265)...

Tallinn viies 10:08 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
good day!
my first upside target was today 1,2710/15.
second one where indraday is wise to short the euro is 1,2755/75 level.
this is just for quick contras as Athens loves to say. for calling a top here Im still not brave enough.

for medium SELL my sell order today stands at 1,2574. fwiw

Gen dk 10:04 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

nyc beyonding_destiny 10:03 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
anyone thinks GBP may touch 1.9 within a month?

Hong Kong nt 09:57 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Is GOLD heading $440 this week?

jkt-aye 09:54 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Wish u ALL the best in a Happy profitable New Year.

van Gecko 09:51 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
re 9:34 what are balls good for when one becomes an fx eunuch ?
ab 08:52 thanks.. good trades

Ldn Cashman 09:46 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Athens, I think watching is the best way at the mom. I agree a big turn is on the way, but waiting for a pullback before selling.

melbourne farmacia 09:45 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
canberra jsh 09:38 GMT January 6, 2004
I have 1.8218 based on projections from 1.7831 and 1.7979 that i posted yesterday.

sarasota jf 09:42 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
usdyen - 3 month 100.00 strike bought (usd put) in good size selling going through in spot running into sumi and mizuho buying - gbpusd swiss corp buying gbp/nok

Athens 09:40 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
FWIW my next cable resistance is 1.8230. I remain a watcher on this pair anyway for it really amazed me as it never looked back again since breaking on the upside my model at 1.7030 in November. I mist admit I had not expected such a strong rally.

Tasmania 09:38 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
The UK CIPS services index dipped to 58.5 in Dec vs 59.6 in Nov and forecasts of 60.0. This was the lowest reading since Aug 03

canberra jsh 09:38 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia...what's you next lvl for res on gbp at 1.8200? tia

Vilnius george 09:37 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Kaunas DP 09:22

with a "naujais metais" , have a nice year.
GL , GT

melbourne farmacia 09:34 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Did say you need balls on this one - gbp -

sarasota jf 09:28 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
ab - u gotta look at bonlac/parmalat for some recent moves in audusd and audyen n the hedging that was in place - size wise maynot have been overwhelmingly large but sentiment maybe was enough in markets looking for excuses

Kaunas DP 09:22 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
cable should go down after data

hk ab 0.88 09:19 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
also start to short eur/chf soon.

hk ab 0.88 09:18 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
I think an hr later, 105.xx will be printed again.

The money left by BOJ before holidays are not enough.

hk ab 0.88 09:17 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
short aud/cad .9871 first lot.

hk ab 0.88 09:17 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
jf, do you know who's sitting on that 82 line on aud/jpy?

Malaysia Aced 09:13 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
It really seems like will be repelled ~!! Its going down now ~!! 1.2294 for the price on my chart now ... :(

hk ab 0.88 09:12 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
new range for aud/nzd 1.14 to 1.15 and break of the channels open new leg.

Kaunas DP 09:10 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
done with 2 days DNT @1.819

melbourne farmacia 09:10 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Re last post, This is the first time in months that i've considered shorting gbp fwiw.

hk ab 0.88 09:09 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
nt, look at the aud/cad long term chart.

Malaysia Aced 09:09 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
The USD/Swiss Franc isn't going on that healthy , any comment for it ?? :p It doesn't seems like will be to be repelled :(

melbourne farmacia 09:07 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
If one has balls today, open a short Gbp/Usd @ 1.8140 - 60.

Athens 09:04 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Re 09:00, so do I.

hk ab 0.88 09:03 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
exciting.

Eilat Dolphin 09:02 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Maz/ Welcome to the moving sand dunes!

tasmania 09:00 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
ANZ's Craig Ferguson says the USD is close to a change in short-term trend and a correction,

Hong Kong Ahe 08:59 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
bc 08:47 GMT - Many thanks bc. I think I've got a pair of Eagle eyes. ;)

hk ab 0.88 08:56 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
bc, when aud is trading correction, what's the best play on it? play the option only or short it with option protection?

hk ab 0.88 08:52 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
welcom Gecko,

Happy new year and hope that you can catch many pips in this "yoyo" year!

Dhahran maz 08:51 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
I'm new to Forex

Dhahran maz 08:50 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi all. hello Mexifornia

van Gecko 08:48 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp don't look too healthy starting 2004..

shanghai bc 08:47 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   

AHE --Due credit must be given to Roth and his comrades in SNB ..They seem to be somehow much more successful than BOJ folks without much fanfair for the whole of last year..And they are likely to continue with their hat tricks this year again although Roth has been heard saying "we cannot do it alone"..Maybe they can do much better with Trichet..Fwiw..

Mexifornia, Calimerica SNP 08:39 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
usdjpy - sell below 106.29 and add @ 106.12

eurusd - buy as long as 1.2666/1.2670 holds

gbpusd - buy as long as 1.8051/1.8070 holds

usdchf - sell below 1.2367/1.2332 ... important level higher @ 1.2389

eurgbp is still within the neutral 0.7015/0.7053 zone
sell below 0.7015/20 - SAR above till price starts failing ahead of 0.7090

eurchf has seen 3 weeks of selling after price failed @ 1.58 so shorting price there will be favourable

eurjpy - buy ahead of 134.76
gbpjpy - buy ahead of 192.27/191.95
usdcad - sell below 1.2999/1.2983

appears i'm running a little late and only a few of these scenarios may develop ... TTYL laterz

Hong Kong Ahe 08:39 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
ab, many years ago, the bridge was publishing IMM with volatility index per major currencies daily. After it has been bought by new boss, these data was no more broadcasting. Not certain what was the reason. They were very helpful for short and medium term spot forex traders.

St. Louis SAJ 08:38 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Beyonding_Destiny -- OK with me, as long as it waits (generally) until Friday when the IMM options expire.

Even a day or two is fine -- the oppies can always be rolled.

Good trades!

Tasmania 08:33 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab IFR have published them

hk ab 0.88 08:30 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
v. strange, why f-ore-xnews has no IMM position fig. lately?
Does anyone have one on all majors?

ldn2004 08:28 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
higher the euro!

Athens 08:25 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
The USD "dead cat bounce" lately reminds me of the EUR when trading in the low -.80's three years ago. I was thinking of this (opposite) similarity. Back then it was the Euro's total failure to rebound by itself that brought the CB's in. Perhaps now may be the case of the Dollar's total failure to do the same which might prompt CB action soon. Just a thought.

nyc beyonding_destiny 08:22 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
St. Louis SAJ 08:06 GMT January 6, 2004

'The war as I knew it'

US$ will rebound now

beijing road 08:15 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Keep going with the trend!!!!

Stockholm za 08:11 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Happy trades to every one -for 2004
May the profit be with you all .... GL...

Tasmania 08:09 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
CNBC Commercial Commerce Asia on live now says that come the US election the Euro will Crash along with the Aud

St. Louis SAJ 08:06 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
As General Patton once famously said: ''Hold 'em by the nose, and kick 'em in the pants''.

Or, at least, let's both of us give it a good try, right?

Best wishes, and good trading to you!

Jarkata Happy bull 08:01 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
you are right St. Louis thanks, right now my pile of european bull manure sure smells good. may you catch more tiger shrimps by the tail

Hong Kong Ahe 07:57 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Anyone has the idea or not - is the SNB using GBPCHF to protect USDCHF from falling below 1.2300? The price action of this two pairs are moved strangely for two consecutive days in this pattern.

Melbourne Qindex 07:56 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
St. Louis SAJ 07:54 GMT - Happy New Year and Good Trades!

hk ab 0.88 eurgbp! 07:55 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
nt, note the above.

St. Louis SAJ 07:54 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
And, may I wish a VERY happy New Year to our good friend, the inestimable QIndex!

Hong Kong nt 07:54 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
HK AB--0.88 = 0.88 A$ x 100 Yen? i'm awaiting 700 pips correction to buy some AUD/JPY...

hk ab 0.88 07:52 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
nt, I can see that those "very sharp" dive are caused by HUGE order in secs.

Doesn't it look like eary repatriation?

Melbourne Qindex 07:51 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Basically the market is vibrating around 1.2697 with a magnitude of +/- 30 pips, i.e. 1.2666 - 1.2728.

Melbourne Qindex 01:44 GMT January 6, 2004
EUR/USD : The lower barrier of my daily cycle is expected at 1.2635 // 1.2650 and the upper barrier is located at 1.2744 // 1.2759.


... 1.2635 // 1.2650, 1.2666 ... 1.2697 ... 1.2728, 1.2744 // 1.2759 ...

St. Louis SAJ 07:51 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Happy Bull -- Three years ago, I coined (at least I believe I was first -- doesn't really matter, who cares in the long run, eh?) the term ''fishwrapper'' for Euro. Not because of its current value on any given day, but because the notion of a common currency among 10, 15, 25 different nations, with different cultures and different cultural values (excluding, of course, socialism) absolutely stinks, both actually and historically.

Well, trading is about making a profit -- and that's all it's about -- and, just as I assume you would -- I'll buy manure if the price of manure is going higher.

Heck, I'd trade tiger shrimp (there is a futures market in these, btw), tiger lilies, Bengal tigers, or Kellogg's Frosted Flakes (mascot: Tony the Tiger), if I thought I understood the mkt well enough to make a profit by trading any of them.

Wouldn't you? -- Good trading to you!

U.K. J.B. 07:46 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
re yest.posting @ 17:31 long euro/yen @134.45 bring s/l up to cost free trade.

hk ab 0.88 07:46 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Tasmania 07:38 GMT January 6, 2004
French Minister Says Brutal Forex Moves Bad For Everyone
Reuters.



They need to ACT not just TALK.
Otherwise, Sorro's and the Barclay will just break FED like they broke BOE.


Ahe// It's eurgbp.

MONACO OGA 07:42 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 06/01
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (Currently 1.2710). Another day , another new high (1,2724). The US currency continues to be soft agains the EUR. 1,2650 is now appearing as the nearest support zone while we see next logical target around 1.2850. The trend is your friend, and the market decided once again to ignore poor german statistics (retail sales Nov -1,8%) and good US data (construction spending Nov +1,2%). We are in the process of a wide USD depreciation move, smoothly orchestrated but without any significant retracement so far since Nov 2003 (200 pips). It feels as if the market is not long yet, but rather behaves as a short squeezed market. Only once the market massively turns bullish and is effectively carrying long positions will it be time to consider contra trades and sharp retracements to 1,20-1,24 .

Data out today:
EMU PMI Dec expected 58,5 09.00 GMT
UK CIPS services Dec expected 60,2 09.30 GMT
US ISM non manufacturing Dec expected 61,0 15.00 GMT
US factory orders Nov expected -1.5% 15.00 GMT

Gold around 424 , with WTI February at 33,68.

***JPY***
Usd/Jpy (currently 106,25), the BOJ/MOF abandonned their 106,90 protection yesterday and as expected the market cracked down to current levels, printing a new 3 years low at 106,00. The USD is still under pressure, and we believe the japanese authorities are gearing up for more intervention tools and are getting ready to defend the highly psychological 100 level (not seen since Nov 1995). EUR/JPY (135,10) is currently consolidating inside 134,40 / 135,60.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1.8130) following EUR and printing another 12 years high at 1,8140. The pair is speeding forward since it broke the psychological barrier at 1,80 yesterday morning. Most likely 2004 will see some trading around 1,85. Support for the day at 1,8060 and resistance at 1,8270.
EUR/GBP (0.7015), hovering around 0,7030 pivotal point. No particular target, although Euro GBP integration looks less and less likely and therefore we will be looking to sell the rallies.

Have a nice day,

Olivier

MONACO OGA 07:41 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 06/01
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (Currently 1.2710). Another day , another new high (1,2724). The US currency continues to be soft agains the EUR. 1,2650 is now appearing as the nearest support zone while we see next logical target around 1.2850. The trend is your friend, and the market decided once again to ignore poor german statistics (retail sales Nov -1,8%) and good US data (construction spending Nov +1,2%). We are in the process of a wide USD depreciation move, smoothly orchestrated but without any significant retracement so far since Nov 2003 (200 pips). It feels as if the market is not long yet, but rather behaves as a short squeezed market. Only once the market massively turns bullish and is effectively carrying long positions will it be time to consider contra trades and sharp retracements to 1,20-1,24 .

Data out today:
EMU PMI Dec expected 58,5 09.00 GMT
UK CIPS services Dec expected 60,2 09.30 GMT
US ISM non manufacturing Dec expected 61,0 15.00 GMT
US factory orders Nov expected -1.5% 15.00 GMT

Gold around 424 , with WTI February at 33,68.

***JPY***
Usd/Jpy (currently 106,25), the BOJ/MOF abandonned their 106,90 protection yesterday and as expected the market cracked down to current levels, printing a new 3 years low at 106,00. The USD is still under pressure, and we believe the japanese authorities are gearing up for more intervention tools and are getting ready to defend the highly psychological 100 level (not seen since Nov 1995). EUR/JPY (135,10) is currently consolidating inside 134,40 / 135,60.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1.8130) following EUR and printing another 12 years high at 1,8140. The pair is speeding forward since it broke the psychological barrier at 1,80 yesterday morning. Most likely 2004 will see some trading around 1,85. Support for the day at 1,8060 and resistance at 1,8270.
EUR/GBP (0.7015), hovering around 0,7030 pivotal point. No particular target, although Euro GBP integration looks less and less likely and therefore we will be looking to sell the rallies.

Have a nice day,

Olivier

Jarkata Happy bull 07:41 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
hey St. Louis SAJ why call it the fishwrapper when the mighty euro is wrapping you with pips? btw I am fully hedged to the downside with some cheap KI's all the way from 1.20

Hong Kong Ahe 07:41 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
0.88 is the EURGBP or USDCHF target???

St. Louis SAJ 07:39 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Anonymous forex trader says ''French Ministers'' bad for everyone.

Tasmania 07:38 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
French Minister Says Brutal Forex Moves Bad For Everyone
Reuters.

hk ab 0.88 07:37 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
oilman, can you share something with us?

saloniko 2004 imho 07:36 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Happy New Year first 4all!

Couldnt share my view in 2004..

so i think to check out b4 do anything USD/CHF 1.20 line..
Right now USD/CHF will do a bounch around 1.21-1.25 BUT ,
If will see a next move frome 1.25 to 1.18 and 1.1838 not hold i will be the First one who GUN for USD/CHF 0.88 in 2004

0.88 sound crazy and may be many will lough now but thats my honest opinion..

nk,2004..

hk ab 0.88 07:36 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Ahe, to remember my friend, nk, target on eur/gbp .88 in the future.

hk ab 0.88 07:35 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
sell dlr/jpy 106.25.

hk ab 0.88 07:35 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
nt, I think eur/gbp is the uncertainty on gbp.

a break .6950 will be somewhat pushing the gbp towards 2.0000

Hong Kong Ahe 07:34 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
ab, why is there an extra 0.88 after ab? ;)

hk ab 0.88 07:33 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
maybe a sell fo gb/chf.

Hong Kong nt 07:30 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
HK AB--My wife and I derived important chart res for AUD and NZD, which is 0.7777 and 0.6777 resp...

hk ab 0.88 07:26 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
in the past, gbp/jpy was the foretune teller of dlr/jpy and the unpeg tells everything needed.

hk ab 0.88 07:26 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
nt, this usd selling may resemble dlr/jpy pushing from 79 to 141.......

Let's wait for the CB's

hk ab 0.88 07:24 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
nt, at one point the BOJ might not notice,

speculation on dlr/jpy is made by vast speculative positions on jpy crosses long + broad USD sale.


So, if they just tackle the usd/jpy selling, it's totally a waste of effort.

gbp/jpy and aud/jpy still have a lots (loads of hedge) on this.

Everytime they intervene, they just push the other majors higher. With unlimited sky in aud and gbp, I wonder if they are smart enough to slow dlr/jpy fall.

Hong Kong nt 07:24 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
HK AB--Do you have any views on GBP/USD? I have placed a sell oda at 1.8137...

Hong Kong nt 07:21 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- with the active participation of BOJ/MOF, i guess the fall of USD/JPY from 110 to 97-100 may develop in form of a falling wedge...

FOREX ADD`S 07:21 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   

ab SO /Trader USQA /

Adelaide albbar 07:21 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 07:13 GMT January 6, 2004
can someone confirm that 105.7 was a valid quote on dlr/jpy?

My platform shows that 105.65 was touched.

Hong Kong nt 07:17 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney KF 06:32 GMT -- this year, i guess Hang Seng Index may have a go to 16000 or even 18000, in short term, HSI maybe confined within 12000-13300 for a while...

Ina mr.co'z 07:17 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Jarkata Happy bull ...are ope ?...sorry...thx all...GBP/USD will get top at 1.8180...gooood..luck....

hk ab 0.88 07:16 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
bc, it looks like that 100 is a definite target eyed now. What do you think if History is repeating?

when many people long dlr/jpy with boj together at 100 line and then a poke induced a fast avalanche?


btw, was your post a typo saying that anything under "100" instead of "110" being the gift?

Thanks very much.

melbourne pizza 07:14 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
ST.LOUIS SAJ , GOOD LUCK ON YOUR SHORT YOUR UP FOR A FORTUNE , THANKS FORUM I HAVE WORKED OUT THE POSITION FOR USD/CAD........

Trader USQA 07:13 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
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Forex : USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/ CAD, USD/CHF

Stock Indices : Dow, Nasdaq, German DAX

US Stocks : Microsoft, Sun Micro., Oracle, Intel

Check the following website

http://saturn.tradeodds.com/GB/BOM/MLT14165
http://mercury2.tradeodds.com/GO/OTCONLINE/CR5015

hk ab 0.88 07:13 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
can someone confirm that 105.7 was a valid quote on dlr/jpy?

when my computer was downed for that minute?

hk ab 0.88 07:11 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
many automatic orders....

St. Louis SAJ 07:08 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Hey, enjoy it while it lasts. The next downswing in EUR/USD will make the original one look like amateur night. (And, btw, notwitstanding at this moment, I'm very long the fishwrapper, with calls written against)

Each trader to his own, and devil take the hindmost. Good trading to you!

Jarkata Happy bull 06:58 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
long live the euro!!

Melbourne Qindex 06:43 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney KF 06:32 GMT - HSI is affected by Nikkei-225, unwilling to move further ahead at this moment.

Sydney KF 06:32 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Anyone specialise in HK Hang Seng index?

Sydney KF 06:31 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Hang Seng is jumping like a yoyo

melbourne pizza 06:25 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
ANY OPIONION ON WHETHER THERE IS MORE DOWNSIDE TOWARDS USD/CAD, OR ARE WE SEEING SHORT TERM BOTTOM/TURNAROUND

nyc beyonding_destiny 06:19 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
although i need to respect fundermantles in short term, personally i believe US$ is always what it is...a strong currency dominates the world...boz guys here gotta make things attractive and happen to get investment from outside. Just one way or another, sooner than later

Hialeah PF 06:18 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone in this Forum follows the GEN DK signals strategies offered very often in this chat? I would like to hear your impression or experience with it

melbourne pizza 06:05 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
the tops for the AUD,EUR are getting close, i like it when a currency looks ugly like USD AGAINST EUR AUD GBP, REMEMBER THE EUR WHEN IT LOOKED UGLY AND DOOMED, AMAZING TURNAROUND, LONG USD NOT FAR AWAY..

Miami OMIL 06:00 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
sarasota jf 05:51 GMT January 6, 2004

I knew somebody was sitting on that 1.2700 area. (;>
Hope you had a great holiday JF thanks for the information. (/;-> GL GT

sarasota jf 06:00 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
uk bank saying gbpusd buying all from mid asia buyers at the moment

nyc beyonding_destiny 06:00 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
market trends to test the Fib23.6 retr first in all majors except aussie

Adelaide albbar 06:00 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
sarasota jf 05:51 GMT
Any comment on cable possibly as it just touched 1.81?
Tks, GT

sarasota jf 05:51 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
eurusd - eastern european buyer so far at 70-75 - ba seller at 90ish protecting digital option at 1.2700 - s/l building above 1.27 all the way up to 1.2750 - downside bids under 70-75 at 30-35
usdyen boj at 106.00 lots of stops under there for 30-40 points - offers coming in 106.50 upwards

hk ab 0.88 05:35 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
nt, seems all major indices got wild now.

"Booming"?

Melbourne Qindex 02:36 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hk ab 0.88 02:27 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 23:27 GMT January 5, 2004
hk ab 0.88 23:17 GMT January 5, 2004
Morning ab - can i send you my Usd/CAD chart regarding your long last night ?



Farmcia, that's a very big welcome.
But unfortunately, s/l got kicked ;(

Melbourne Qindex 02:17 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 01:44 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Jap Toy 01:35 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
eurusd__stoploss orders at 1,2630

austin ferris 01:33 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
I am going short $/chf here. The eur/chf cross favors a small retreat and how can any rational man look at these charts and buy the dollar?? Fairly tight stop if the painful correction should fall like a thunderbolt. gl and gt

Melbourne Qindex 01:28 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

belden mb 01:28 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
closed euro/usd short @ 1.2674-plus 10 pips x 10 contracts = decent pay. thats whats so great about forex

Melbourne Qindex 01:22 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : The odds are in favour of maintaining a short position if the market retreats and penetrates through the lower barrier of my daily cycle.

Melbourne Qindex 01:13 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment  . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 00:55 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:49 GMT January 6, 2004
AUD/USD : My 44-day cycle indicates that a projected resistant level is positioning at 0.7694 - 0.7700. ...........................

belden mb 00:52 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
sold euro/usd @1.2684. looking for quick pip raid

Melbourne Qindex 00:50 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

usa ez 00:46 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
phlatt @191.90 gbp/yen

Gen dk 00:05 GMT January 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

 




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