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Forex Forum Archive for 01/07/2004

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melbourne farmacia 23:58 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 23:47 GMT January 7, 2004
Email sent but came back to me - think it my end playing up, will try again.

Tasmania 23:58 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
reuters

Tasmania 23:58 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
European industry: German BDI industry federation says EUR well and truly broken through their pain barrier.

Tasmania 23:55 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
EUR sentiment hurt by comments from Belgium's PM, who called on ECB to consider rate cut if EUR rises further, says Westpac. Buba's Stark also saying further EUR gains will threaten Germany.

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:47 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
I am trying out a new method and it is still under testing unlike the bands which were just pre-tested and blindly accurate.

194.50
193.85
193.63
193.14
192.98
192.32
191.67

I'll watch the market with a long possie with a tight stop.

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:34 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Dr.Q that comes as a surprise to me saying you don't have the right tool to make that forecast, I thought your analysis was the best available esp. on yen pairs.

hk ab 23:34 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
BB, the best case is eur 1.28 can resemble the parity situation 2 years ago....

Melbourne Qindex 23:33 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:32 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
194.96 has to be reached this month then 196.13 but it's proving tough so far.

hk ab 23:27 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
buy back the dlr/jpy shorts...... no progress at all almost.

hk ab 23:27 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
boj boj boj......

Melbourne Qindex 23:26 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 23:21 GMT - I do not have the right tool to make that forecast.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 23:24 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
if gbp/jpy closes above 193.44 in nmext couple of minutes,i think it shall go up some good points,IMHO.
any suggestions anyone?
TIA:-)

Villers/Mer Max 23:22 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
SouthUK DHE 23:18 GMT January 7, 2004

1.2640 is an exellent entry point.Target 1.2870.

hk ab 23:21 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
and the eur/gbp still telling sth, BB.

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:21 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Dr.Q, which currency do you think will make some good action today and what do your daily analysis say about it?

TIA.

hk ab 23:20 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 23:11 GMT January 7, 2004
It seems the dollar bulls are slowly surfacing. What has me worried is although the dollar has made nice inroads against euro look at cable and aussie. They have barely budged. And dollaryen isnt doing much of anything. Oh well at least its more interesting than dollar down day after day against everything :)



I see the case is right opposite in this pond of fishes as I pointed in the afternoon.

SouthUK DHE 23:18 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
EUR$ seems to be lounging near to 4hr trend support/40 ma. I am long at 1.2640 and hope that it may consider getting up a touch in the next couple of days

Melbourne Qindex 23:16 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 23:10 GMT - Good morning! We are not planning to run any promotion on GBP/JPY unless there is a good move in USD/JPY.

USA Biscuit Boy 23:11 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
It seems the dollar bulls are slowly surfacing. What has me worried is although the dollar has made nice inroads against euro look at cable and aussie. They have barely budged. And dollaryen isnt doing much of anything. Oh well at least its more interesting than dollar down day after day against everything :)

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:10 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Dr.Q, Happy New Year! What does your analysis say about GBP/JPY? would you kindly give analysis on that pair for upcoming 24 hrs?

TIA

Tasmaina 23:08 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Approvals fall as home boom flags
Approvals to build new flats and townhouses plunged 18per cent before the two latest interest hikes, as the mere talk of higher rates deterred property investors and heralded the likely end of the three-year housing boom.
Master Builders Association chief economist Wilhelm Harnisch said yesterday. "The rise in interest rates can only accelerate the decline that was happening naturally."

Melbourne Qindex 23:05 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

lahore FM 22:59 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Tony,
nice call on CAD.

nyc tony 22:50 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
thx for the link tas. interesting article, which I tend to disagree with. I think it has touched its high (depending on which side of the border) FWIW

Tasmania 22:42 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Reuters
Economists see tough year ahead for Canada economy
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040107/economy_canada_1.html

nyc tony 22:40 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
BUY $/CAD!!!

CHEAP CHEAP CHEAP CHEAP

AVAILABLE FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY

nyc tony 22:39 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
THE SAFEST BUY AND HOLD TRADE AVAILABLE!!!

nyc tony 22:38 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Doing a little bit of public relations here....TRADERS WANT EZ PIPS???

sararatoga sam 22:26 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
35 US troops wounded in mortar attack. Coming across wires now.

Melbourne Qindex 22:24 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Texas(Jksn.) PNB 22:23 GMT - Good morning!

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 22:23 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Hi Q

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 22:22 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
eurusd if closes below 1.2631 in next 3 hours and 30 minutes,it's good till 1.2580 IMHO
Hi everyone on this forum!

TIA:-)

Melbourne Qindex 22:22 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 12:04 GMT January 7, 2004
EUR/GBP : The current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle reference is 0.6933 - 0.6995 and the mid-point reference is 0.6964. The next projected supporting point and resistant point is positioning at 0.6871 and 0.7057 respectively. The market rhythm of the 44-day cycle is represented by 62 pips


Maribor 21:03 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Marko: bought EURCHF call 1,57 sept.04. Expecting 1,63 from fundamental point of view at maturity. Holding some longs from 1,5020 and 1,5400. Nice, slow pair.

Spotforex NY 20:51 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
I have been calling for a central bank new year 'surprise' in the first week on Jan. Tomorrow is the ECB meeting....lets see if the ECB wants to have the focus for the upcoming G-7 to be on the Yen (and not the euro).

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 20:51 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd when at 1.8178 is ideal to move up to get 1.8234 again.

Spotforex NY 20:49 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
a 'decisive break of 1.2600 at this time will begin the consolidation phase of the Euro.....

I suspect that the next three months will become range trading - but I do know know the extent of the downside at this time....The 1.2360 level was a pivotal day in the euro's "drive to new high's" campaign....this trend is not over until 1.26 is broken IMHO.....

note: The long euro bull Zorro "hedged" 75% of his longs in his posting yesterday when the Euro was a tad below the 1.2800 channel highs.....He may be looking for 5% more in the euro picture - but he has hedged.....

Athens noted in the GVI room that the upper channel high in the Euro was being tested as the 1.28 level approach and paused there.....

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 20:44 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Cairo A 20:41 GMT January 7, 2004
Merry X'mass for you too.
hope nice long holiday for you just now.
abot euro you can see my archieve today in this forum.

saloniko 2004 imho 20:43 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening..

While im not trading but spending some free time around, i think that if someone want to Sell Euro around will be safe only with a stop above 1.3088

imho
Good Night and Cheers!

nk

Cairo A 20:42 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
I am with you Mr. Radan, Eur/ Usd will up. Good trade for you all

Cairo A 20:41 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Mr Radan
welcome back to forum, we miss your valuable comments in Xms holiday, Wish you merry Xms.

What are your view for eur/usd?

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 20:39 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
friends..
I think eur/usd move down again near low 1/2630 only confirmation type to get emotion buyers before move up higher than 1.2665.

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 20:37 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT ,
I wait you to chat now.

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 20:30 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Villers/Mer Max 20:00 GMT January 7, 2004
if you use moving, must consistent.
moving simple 100 and 200 usual be used too.

Barcelona Tony 20:15 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
let's buy $ and ZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZZ ... get the pips mates!

Chambery FR JFB 20:11 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 20:08 GMT January 7, 2004

Still time to wish you all the best for 2004 then :-)

ICT ML 20:08 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
JFB.....had a rough couple months last quarter myself. Made some lost it back, etc.........but all due to my own fault and being greedy.

Was holding my own in December until I got trapped and smashed over the head by my buddies in TKYO on a GBP/JPY intervention....so I called it a year, and just came back yestreday and today.

Still flat, got a few ideas though. Been watching weekly patterns on a few pairs that are holding for now.

got to run now, see all you later.

Villers/Mer Max 20:00 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Raden,
I use since a few days, exponential moving averages bands (50 days) on shares and Fx. That gives exellent results. If euro fall further down, I think it will stop around 1.2600 maximum. I'll make a square from there if reached.

Chambery FR JFB 20:00 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 19:56 GMT January 7, 2004
Hey, nice to see U too :-)
After I read Max post about EW (and reading the e-book he recommended) am looking at just one pair, and am beginning to see interesting patterns... It seems to me that to be accurate, such a system should be adapted (backtested) for each single pair... Am thinking of some calculation :-)

Thanks for the advice, I'll keep it in mind for sure :-)

Still doing good with the beast?? :-)

Slovenia Marko 19:59 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Long EURCHF @ 1,5670 for mid-term trade. SL bellow 1,56...at 1,5585.

Any opinions?

GL!

ICT ML 19:56 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 19:44 ......hi, long time no see JFB!

Hope all is well...........re EW.......be careful when counting wave 5 is all I will say. That is where the big losses usually come, being off on that 5th wave count and too stubborn to admit it.

enjoy though, some guys do extremely well with it.

Porto PJT 19:51 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Raden, sure.

Eilat Dolphin 19:51 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
PAR/ Could you elaborate on the Trichet bit ? And Is that the reason the GBP holds ? (just got in...sorry.) TIA.

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 19:48 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Villers/Mer Max 19:41 GMT January 7, 2004
that is the fact there is regularity behind random face numbers. I never hear fundamental/news but only look chart, but I believe Newton rule III : fundamental is action and chart is reaction. Chart need fundamental/news, but chart is emotion most of players map after they try get conclusion from thousand of news or data economic. Because I don't have knowledge about news and then I choose technical.
I believe with regularity behind random face numbers, but still learn and look for and still difficult to find. still mistery for me. I realize not always right or not often right.

Chambery FR JFB 19:44 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 19:39 GMT January 7, 2004
Thanks Raden... Impressed by your forecasts most of the time, and as I am starting to learn about EW, I thought I might be on the right way :-)

GT GL

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 19:42 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT 19:24 GMT January 7, 2004
you can ask to Mr.jay about my e-mail now and send me your e-mail now. I wait.

Villers/Mer Max 19:41 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Hello Raden,
Always the same accuracy I see!

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 19:39 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 19:30 GMT January 7, 2004
I have used Elliot long time ago, but I get the confuse because I don't know detail about Elliot wave caused by my bad English reading.
I use my own tool forcast and be name by my self is Andi Prasojo Methode (APM)

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 19:34 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT 19:24 GMT January 7, 2004
I have sent to Mr. Jay about me.

Chambery FR JFB 19:30 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Raden_Masandi,

Just curious : do you use elliott waves for your forecasts? TIA

Antwerp JS 19:30 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Rumor: Another Rumor Bin Laden"s Bin Captured

What should happen with EUR/USD and GBP/USD?

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 19:28 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
euro and gbp...let's go !!
Porto..
I have only e-mail and I only use yahoo
ok I will send to Jay.

Porto PJT 19:24 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi, do you have msn?if yes send your to Jay.

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 19:23 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
it's time to go up for eur/usd from 1.2630 area and gbp/usd too from 1.8170 area.

PAR 19:13 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Looks like Trichet could lower EURO interest rates because of political pressures.

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 19:11 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT 19:04 GMT January 7, 2004
thanks.
do you believe there is regularity behind random number face?
let's look for that, and if bank know about that and believe with that will be rich bank soon.
really I want to joint with bonafid bank if posible. any bonafid bank chairman here?

PAR 19:05 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
A lot of carrying trades going on trying to benefit from high real UK interest rates.

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 19:04 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
seen America market players still "lazy" now . are you there ..?

Porto PJT 19:04 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi , good calls as usual.

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 18:57 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
I copied here my view in December 2003 to answer why eur/usd move down when at 1.2815 area until now and why usd/jpy still heavy to down when eur/usd up strong and why today usd/jpy get selling pressure. This is my brain thinking and hope will help you.
this is my copy and see the chart eur/jpy !
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:15 GMT December 18, 2003
eur/jpy when at 133.32
price will get top 134.67 (minor) and 135.97(major)




London 18:57 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
FM Research fixes holiday prices for the period of 12/25/03 - 01/25/04.
Look at new low fares on link which nowadays is one of the trustworthiest & effective forex quotes history for intraday trading.

PAR 18:48 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Rumors Nissan to close UK facrories due to too high value of sterling.

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 18:44 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
because gbp/chf, gbp/usd will get difficult to down when eur/usd down to get 1.2630 and then move up together when eur/usd have get that number.

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 18:43 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
be carefull gbp/chf will up to get 2.2586 (top minor) and then from here look for support to get 2.2689 as extreme high.

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 18:25 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
I think harmonic emotion map is like this :
eur/usd will get 1.2861 and then down sharply
gbp/usd will get 1.8380 and then down sharply
gold still consolidation below 430.70 never break high than 432 (wait gbp/usd and eur/usd finish their emotion) and aud/usd too have get 0.7710 is ideal extreme top, small chance aud/usd will get higher than 0.7720 and will get big selling attack emotion after eur/usd and gbp/usd finish their extreme top.
usd/jpy still valid to get 104.27, but better exit your sell position when eur/usd or gbp/usd get their exterem target.

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 18:20 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
very potential after get 1.2630 price will move up to get 1.2861 (extreme top).
I hope not plan buy now, better wait at 1.2630 or sell here to get that number and cut reverse more there(1.2630).

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 18:13 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd when at 1.2666
my strategy :
sell here with stp at 1.2699 (bid) for target 1.2635
buy at 1.2630 for target 1.2670 with stp at 1.2625
buy at 1.2611 for target 1.2670 with stp at 1.2595

I think price will get 1.2630 before go up.

LAX-LGB SNP 18:04 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
with reference to
14:03 GMT January 7, 2004
unable to buy u$dcad above 1.291x since 1.289x cracked
unable to sell gbpchf @ 2.25x since price shot way past

selling eurjpy below 134.8x = a quarter
selling eurgbp ahead of 0.6999/0.7008 = another quarter again
buying aud$ ahead of 0.768x is barely breaking even
buying $chf over 1.233x = 2 quarters
selling gbp$ below 1.821x = couple of dimes
also selling eur$ below 1.27xx (missed upper entry @ 1.272x) = a quarter

slim pickings but no complaints :-)

Los Angeles RW 17:52 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Anyone has an opinion on Canadian vs. Dollar rates in the next 5 months?

Porto PJT 17:45 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Nok, nok/jpy worth a look.

Porto PJT 17:39 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Snow should be on diplomacy.

Global-View 17:26 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
For those in the NYC area, Doug Schaff at Fx-Strategy is holding an excellent trading seminar on January 19. If interested, click on this LINK

Wiarton H 17:09 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
$ Dow all back to where they opened.
Must still be holiday trading,OK with me!!

Vilnius george 17:05 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
If Snow don't care about dollar , soo why we should

NYC NYC 16:59 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Snow just repeated his standard lines and am surprised the market has moved.

Wash DC Tempus 16:55 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Snow says that he supporst strong US$.. strong Us$ in US interest... should be set by marketplace....

Interesting to note nothing about an orderly USD decline

Mkt now focuses on Trichet tom.

Think we can test support at 1.2650 sooner rather tahn later

NYC fxdh 16:53 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
repeats favors strong $

NYC fxdh 16:53 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Snow says fx values set in open competitive mkt
per mns

GVI john 16:52 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Snow says dollar value shouild be set by markets and that the U.S. supports a strong dollar. Post speech comments to reporters. Implies no worry about dollar weakness.

SA Bok 16:51 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Snowman was boring .. nothing really said , even host got all got all confused .. Later Gl and GT

Rye, NY et 16:42 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Snow's done: talked about taxes; avoided talking about Dollar
FWIW

Dublin Flip 16:41 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Not really Sydney but I think Snow has put the market to sleep with his riverting presence-LOL

PRAGUE bossi 16:40 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
hello :) any suggestions about EUR$???

Sydney2 16:38 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Is market waiting for Snow's words?

Sydney2 16:32 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
euro/$ was frozen

USA Biscuit Boy 16:32 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
I dont know Sydney2. Looks like some nice short term resistance at 1.2750 for now. I would like to see a nice climb up to here and a consolidation above 1.27 and then back to the 1.28's in the coming days. The faster it goes up the faster it can fall back down.I like slow and steady :)

slv sam 16:30 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
snow never will never wants US$ up. bought another lot of euro t/p 1.28 and s/l 1.2640.GT

Hong Kong nt 16:30 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 15:39 GMT -- place a sell oda at 1.2790, hope to see a double top on hourly chart...

Sydney2 16:26 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit,
If Snow still say $ is overvalued, do you think the market will jump up 100pips?

Memphis Charles 16:25 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Avalanche... my fingers won't work today.

Memphis Charles 16:25 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
GVI - John ... in other words Snow could be responsible for an avalanche...

USA Biscuit Boy 16:20 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 I think we still move up from here. Not all at once but as long as 1.2640 holds it will make a nice base for a sustained move back up thru 1.27/28/29 and on to 30. If 1.2640 gives way however it will be another story. I definately favor playing the long side with stops below 1.2640. Very nice risk reward IMO.

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 16:15 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
as I said before when gold still at 404 usd/troy that price will get top extreme at 430.70. NICE !! have a nice for gold players.

xiangsu sue 16:10 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Hi Raden,
your opinion please.tia

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 16:03 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
hello...

Sydney2 16:03 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy , you mean euro goes up?

GenevaTwo Oli 16:02 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
This is a good time for Snow to say something - just to confuse everyone.

USA Biscuit Boy 16:01 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
RTN the Snowman likely to start an avalanche. Should be good for a few HUNDRED pips lol.

Alicante RTN 15:59 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Snow should be good for a few pips in eurusd and cable?

GVI john 15:44 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
From today's GVI NY Open Strategy Session....
"Two key events over the next two days will be a speech today by Secretary Snow at 16:00 GMT and the ECB decision Thursday, Whether he realizes it or not, Snow will be commenting on the dollar 16:00 GMT. If he does not mention at least the pace of the dollar’s decline, he will be sending a signal to the markets that it is ok to knock it down again..."

San Roque CK 15:43 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
U.S. stocks extend initial losses on NY explosion rumor By Ciara Linnane
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks extended their losses Wednesday morning as an unsubstantiated rumor of an explosion in the New York area swept through trading rooms, a trader said. "There's been some bogus rumors that there has been some kind of explosion in New York City," said Keith Keenan, vice president of institutional trading at Wall Street Access. "It's absolutely false. A major news network is going to pick up this story before a trading desk will, if there is any kind of truth to it. The markets sold off on that rumor. People are looking for an excuse to take profits." The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) was last down 55 points at 10,483, while the Nasdaq ($COMP) was off 6 points at 2,051

slv sam 15:40 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 12:54 GMT January 7, 2004
Longed e/$ here at 1.2670. will take profit at 1.2740. GT

will liquidate at 1.27 if seen again!

hk ab 15:39 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
sold some eur 1.2692

Quebec YQB 15:30 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:23 GMT

Thanks for your input. I was basing my long on it breaking S/R levels. It's been trending quite similar to Eur/Usd. I just see them moving in the same direction.

Porto PJT 15:24 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 15:13, many thanks.good trades.

HK Kevin 15:23 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Quebec YQB 15:13 GMT, I sold EUR/JPY yesterday simply based on my chart readings. EUR/JPY and USD/JPY is sell and EUR/USD is a buy, but need to clearly watch for entry level. yesterday's sell at 135.96 was near the upper boundary of the uptrend channel and proved to be right. Today, I look to sell at 134.85 (near 20sma of the 4-hr charts and 20/50sam at the hourly chart). For EUR/USD, I still don't have a sell. USD/JPY is still a sell but looks freezing with BOJ behind.

hk ab 15:14 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Hm.... eur/gbp needs to be watched closely.

same move like .60 to .65 can happen on the reversed direction. ........

dc fxq 15:13 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT 14:54 GMT

EURGBP Projected Daily Support and Resistance Levels
S1 0.6992 S2 0.6984 S3 0.6977 S4 0.6969 S5 0.6955 S6 0.6920
R1 0.7010 R2 0.7019 R3 0.7029 R4 0.7039 R5 0.7052 R6 0.7087
Prj Daily Low 0.6974 Prj Daily High 0.7019
5 Day EMA + 0.7018 20 Day EMA + 0.7018
5 Day RSI 14 14 Day RSI 39

Quebec YQB 15:13 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:53 GMT

You think Eur/Jpy is going to drop further? I came in long yesterday thinking it'd move past 136. what's your take on this cross?

Geneva 15:06 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
I dought, cable look in is way to 1.8290!!! If 1.8220 break I will close and sell again at 1.8290/3

Gen dk 15:04 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sydney2 15:03 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
will euro crash after BOJ retreat?

Porto PJT 15:01 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
GER ad 14:57 , thank you.

GenevaTwo Oli 15:00 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Geneva - correction 1.8220

GenevaTwo Oli 14:59 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Hi Geneva - What do you think of GBPUSD? Will it hold below 1.8120? I sold GBP.

van Gecko 14:57 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy must had caught the new year flu from it's cousin.. now tagging close behind the sickly looking eur/gbp..

GER ad 14:57 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
PTJ,
EUR/GBP next support (maybe) 0.6950

Porto PJT 14:54 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Having some tech/data problems today, can somebody tell me the eur gbp problable support on chart?sorry the inconvenience.

HK Kevin 14:53 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
HI hk ab, coverng my short EUR/JPY from 135.96 at 134.40 with limit order this afternoon. Will resell at 134.85 if seen tonight.

Gen dk 14:52 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GER ad 14:51 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
This is the third time in few days that because some "EBS error" the bid under 106 is not honoured. I don't think that is an error, IMHO BOJ only "punish" the seller. Every buy under 106 was until today like money in the bank but the question is: For how long can stay this way (one day the buyer will be punished...)?

Porto PJT 14:47 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 14:42 , thanks, YIPPEE, congrats for your persistent aud jpy call.

Tallinn viies 14:45 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
fwiw
Reuters:
European Union finance ministers acted illegally when they suspended EU budget
rules to spare France and Germany disciplinary action over their excessive
deficits, a legal opinion presented to the European Commission on Wednesday
said. EU sources said Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Pedro Solbes
wanted the EU executive to challenge the November decision before the European
Court of Justice on the basis of the Commission legal service's opinion. But
the 20-member Commission appeared split over whether to ask the court to annul
the decision.

hk ab 14:43 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
YIPPEE, did you add long dlr/jpy to help BOJ? ;)

Porto PJT 14:42 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE 14:40 , thanks.

Spotforex NY 14:42 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT 14:39 105.90 low according to the fine boys in GVI.....

NYC YIPPEE 14:40 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
EBS LOW 90

Porto PJT 14:39 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Can somebody tell me the low on usd jpy, please?

Dublin Flip 14:39 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
We won't mention his foray into the South african rand.
Being such a small currency he thought he could conrol it but got abosulutely murdered along with anyone else who used those currency as a gold hedge idea-ooops

Spotforex NY 14:36 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Gaza Ibiza - so, so true...Soros lost as much (or more) in being long Dollar Yen above the 100 level in the early part of 1990's (1993/94)....then he made being short the Pound in Sept '92...

It all about public relations...

Dublin Flip 14:35 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Spot those were the days before Greesnpanomics (and highspeed lazer printers-LOL). Wayback in the ninties the idea of printing cash unlimitedly was something frowned upon by major countries as it was the work of a bananna republic. Now it's called stimulus.

Gaza Ibiza 14:34 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex he also lost his pants on $/Y, but i do love the myth that he was on his own!

Chicago Irish 14:34 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Cheers Geneva.

Kaunas DP 14:32 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 14:28 GMT
sounds reasonable ...:)
GL all

Spotforex NY 14:32 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Gaza Ibiza 14:31

How did Soros beat the BOE in Sept '92??????

Geneva 14:32 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Chicago- I will be long dollar / jpy with stop at 101.

Gaza Ibiza 14:31 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Geneva ... there is no spec that can trade like a CB end of story!

Chicago Irish 14:30 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Geneva 14.25 True.....but where's your s/l?

Spotforex NY 14:30 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
re: Margin calls
That is a good thing - not for Japan's sake (not the beverage)...but for the US.

A margin call would unwind the US tsy market and would make the LTCM debacle seem like a hiccup....

Geneva 14:28 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
gAZA- Thay change paper with paper

hk ab 14:28 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
My proposal is a fast dive to 105 area... (105.30)? like 115.30?

Then, all the stops are run and new trend restarts.

Let's see. but it's harder in front of Repatriation rather than Chirstmas......

Gaza Ibiza 14:26 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
CB dont have margin call !

Geneva 14:25 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
The boj lost many battles the last few months.
Central banks are long term players thay never lost
the WAR!!!!. Buy DOLLARS¨!!!!!!

Kaunas DP 14:20 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 14:18 GMT
what next
meaning during NY

Gaza Ibiza 14:19 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
tokyo bids are still there frds!

Alicante RTN 14:19 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
BOJ having to fight to keep usdjpy above 106.15

hk ab 14:18 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
106 gone...

hk ab 14:07 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
ONE WAY bull.

hk ab 14:04 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Can't resist to say that small fishes in the forum turn to eur bulls now. JIMVHO.

LAX-LGB SNP 14:03 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
u$dcad ... look to buy above 1.2914 as long as 1.2893 supports
gbpchf ... sell ahead of 2.2507-2.2426 zone
eurjpy ... sell if 134.87 can cap price
eurgbp ... sell ahead 0.6983/0.6999 zone caps
audu$d ... buy ahead of 0.7683
u$dchf ... buy ahead of 1.2330
gbpu$d ... sell if 1.8214 can contain flow
euru$d ... sell if 1.2723 holds

TTYL TC y'all l8erz

NYC CY 14:02 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Market seems to be treating usd bounce as a minor correction.

SA Bok 13:40 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 13:35 GMT January 7, 2004
SA Bok 13:21 /
or e/$ 118 level and $/y at 110!.

Mate I like those levels better ... LOL ...
GL and GT


slv sam 13:35 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
SA Bok 13:21 /
or e/$ 118 level and $/y at 110!.

beijing road 13:30 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Quebec YQB : I see 13420 level as a good bottom.

NYC fxdh 13:24 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
4 hour chart

NYC fxdh 13:23 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Aussie seems to be putting in a head and shoulder top. Any ideas ??

slv sam 13:22 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Quebec YQB 13:16 /
has been strong yes, but IMO 130 level will be seen before 140+.GT

SA Bok 13:21 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 13:13 - Is that EURJPY 130.00 the magic number

EURUSD 1.3000 x USDJPY 100.00 = EURJPY 130.00 ??

Quebec YQB 13:16 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 13:13 GMT

Don't you think Eur/Jpy will rise rather than fall. its been trending up and has been strong. I went long 135.10

slv sam 13:13 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 12:03 GMT January 2, 2004
SELL e/y now at 1.3480 for nice dip till 1.30 level IMHO.GT

i still keep this position!

Quebec YQB 13:05 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Looks like a nice double bottom has formed on Eur/Jpy. any comments on this pair?

Moscow Hawk 12:58 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Vikram, thanks. Good trades.

nyc beyonding_destiny 12:56 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
The ECB will keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 2 percent tomorrow, according to all but one of the 27 economists polled by Bloomberg News in a separate survey. The ECB's rate is double the U.S. Federal Reserve's target rate of 1 percent.

``The ECB may cut rates if there is a significant negative reaction of business confidence and/or the dollar goes into a freefall and depreciates beyond $1.35,'' said Bac Van Luu, an economist at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg.

The rate decision is scheduled for 1:45 p.m. in Frankfurt and the press conference takes place 45 minutes later.

Last Updated: January 7, 2004 07:44 EST

nyc beyonding_destiny 12:56 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Fourteen of the 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News said Trichet will alter his stance on the euro at tomorrow's press conference after the ECB's monthly interest rate decision. The euro, which has surged 15 percent since September, bought $1.2672 at 1:40 p.m. in Frankfurt.

Bloomberg news

Global-View 12:54 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
IMM Swaps updated

slv sam 12:54 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Longed e/$ here at 1.2670. will take profit at 1.2740. GT

Calcutta Vikram 12:48 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Hawk.....great post.
V-shaped turnarounds are more the habit of the Pound than the other currencies.

Calcutta Vikram 12:40 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
farmacia - I was looking for a level to Short the Cable, but wasn't able to get a decent R/R. Selling near 1.8180 would be nice, if possible.

Yes, Sourav's Boys did a good job down under.

Tasmania 12:34 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
US Bans Gatherings At Toilets During Flights



melbourne farmacia 12:34 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 12:24 GMT January 7, 2004
The beach for me during sun light hours. Cheers

Jay - email sent.

GVI john 12:31 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
This report serves as the basis for discussions twice daily on GVI. These comments are the personal opinions of the author and may not be suitable for trading purposes. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2670…$/yen 106.20
DJIA -29 pts… 10-yr 4.29%, +1 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
We have warned here repeatedly that January can be the most difficult trading month of the year for forex because the traders often tend to the same side of the market after having squared up before the Christmas break. It looks as though this scenario has played out again this year. If everybody is short dollars, who is left to sell? This does not change the broad outlook for the unit, but can lead to unstable conditions until traders are able to sort out their positions. Volatile trade can last a week or so or even as long as the entire first quarter, depending on the size of positions to be washed out and fundamental market developments.

Two key events over the next two days will be a speech today by Secretary Snow at 16:00 GMT and the ECB decision Thursday, Whether he realizes it or not, Snow will be commenting on the dollar 16:00 GMT. If he does not mention at least the pace of the dollar’s decline, he will be sending a signal to the markets that it is ok to knock it down again. The same goes for the ECB decision Thursday. European money markets are stating VERY CLEARLY that no rate cut is contemplated. The REFI rate is 2.00% and one month deposits are 2.08%. If the markets are correct, then the key item to watch will be the comments by ECB President Trichet afterwards, As opposed to Snow, I am confident that he will comment on the currency situation

Today sees the weekly API and DOE energy inventory surveys at 15:30 GMT. Any heavy draw downs could boost energy prices. The key December Employment report is due on Friday. The Canadian Ivey December PMI will be watched today..
CALENDAR:
14:30 GMT- US- API/DOE Weekly Energy Inventories
15:00 GMT- CDA- December Ivey PMI

THURSDAY JANUARY 8, 2004
23:30 GMT-JPN- 10-Year JGB Auction
23:50 GMT-JPN- Weekly Portfolio Flows
08:55 GMT- GER- Dec Unemployment: vs. 18K (SA), +33 (NSA) in Nov
11:00 GMT- EUR- Nov Producer Prices: vs. +0.1% in Oct
11:00 GMT- EUR- Nov Unemployment Rate
12:00 GMT- UK BOE MPC decision
12:45 GMT-ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision
13:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
15:00 GMT- US- Nov Wholesale Inventories
20:00 GMT- US- Nov Consumer Credit

FRIDAY, JANUARY 9, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN- November Leading Indicators
00:30 GMT- AUS- Trade vs. –A$1.648 mln
07:00 GMT- GER- Trade: vs. +EUR10.8 bln in Oct
07:00 GMT- GER- Current Account: vs. +EUR6.3 bln in Oct
09:30 GMT- UK- Nov Trade: vs. –GBP4.4 bln in Oct
11:00 GMT- GER- Nov preliminary Industrial Orders: vs. +2.3% in Oct
12:00 GMT- CDA- December Employment:
Rate vs. 7.5%
Jobs vs. +54,100
13:30 GMT- US- Dec Employment:
Non-Farm Payrolls: vs. +57,000 in Nov, see +150,000
Unemployment Rate: vs. 5.9% in Nov, see 5.9%

Miami OMIL 12:31 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I feel a bounce on the eur/usd coming up if 1.2640 holds. Fib retracement is 1.2708, 1.2727 and 1.2750-45 with top resistance at 1.2800-10. Bottom for this pair right now is at 1.2585-80 and 1.2560-55. Stochs are pulling up on 1hr and 30min ready for a bounce. The trend is still intact so the dollar bashing party is not over yet but getting close to a retracement IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Moscow Hawk 12:31 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
We have minor correction from intraday overbought intraday levels in EUR/USD. But I think it is premature to talk about major correction is in place. And currently euro is still trading in the upper part of Monday range. While EUR/USD manages to hold 1.2600-30 pressure is still upside and only move (better closing) below will change the picture to neutral with downside bias. But how it can happen that the major correction takes place in environment when almost everybody expect euro acts such way. I think market needs more time with intraday swings and routine range trading to make market participants disoriented and overall picture not so clear before the major move and probably major reversal.

melbourne farmacia 12:27 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 12:10 GMT January 7, 2004
Happy new year vikram - Congrats to india they played well.

Re cable, i'm seeing 1.8050 on the cards at some stage with the risk of another knock just under 1.8180/8200 max. All depends on profit taking etc.. and fwiw i still have no buy signal yet.

LAX-LGB SNP 12:25 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Vikram sir ... haha ... anyway i was referring to your last email

i do get around but these funny sounding locations ... PSRC or mexifornia or calimerica or LAX-LGB (airport codes) are the one and same place

Dublin Flip 12:24 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia I know that one mate.
I had to fight it for a very long time (working in Sydney).
Ozzie summer means no real market till 7pm. Makes things tough socialwise mate. You have my sympathy and hope you make the most of it and make it into the "green room" or the gold course during the day.

Calcutta Vikram 12:22 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Hi SNP....no reason to forget your name. Trust you're doing well. Your location tags suggest you must be one of the most travelled guys here. Or, the first and original FX Gypsy?

Global-View 12:16 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia. Could you send us an email, the address on file was bounced back to us.

melbourne farmacia 12:13 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 12:06 GMT January 7, 2004
Market never sleeps so why should we down here... lol , it's only just gone 11pm. ( daylight savings sucks with our sleep patterns )

LAX-LGB SNP 12:13 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
sarasota JF ... thanks for the eurusd views
Kolkata Vikram ... thanks for the EURGBP views (btw when did you forget my name ? haha j/k)

Alicante RTN 12:13 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Cable is up against 23.6% fibo retracement of latest correction down. If broken (1.8151'ish), 1,8190 level is likely seen.

Sydney2 12:11 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip, very valuable comment, hope you post more in the future. Thanks again.

Calcutta Vikram 12:10 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
To all the Ozzies here - it was a great series and Steve Waugh deserves every bit of the glory that is his

Farmacia, my thoughts exactly on the Cable 1.8050 possibility. But, do you think that maybe 1.8050 may still be seen even if we 1.8175-85 in this bounce?

Bne Cad 12:07 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Aud: slow stoch has a neat cross. Looking at the euro again, it seems below 1.26 is unlikely, so I'm going to go for a stab in the dark and call the low somewhere between 1.2610-20 area within 24 hours. GL

Dublin Flip 12:06 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
shouldn't you guys be getting some sleep!!!!
I'm starting to think everyone on this forum is an Ozzie-LOL
---
Watching Steve Waugh's exit from the SCG yesterday was certainly a big moment to witness from over here. I hope the guys can dig as deep as he has over the past twenty years.
It will be quite a test for them

Melbourne Qindex 12:04 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 12:04 GMT January 7, 2004
EUR/GBP : The current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle reference is 0.6933 - 0.6995 and the mid-point reference is 0.6964. The next projected supporting point and resistant point is positioning at 0.6871 and 0.7057 respectively. The market rhythm of the 44-day cycle is represented by 62 pips


Dublin Flip 12:01 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
the frightening thing about the USD move is that if at any stage Dean and the democrats even looked to have small chance of winning the China bashing could be seen to have some chance of evolving into something and the dollar and US assets would going into real ugly stage we haven't seen. Don't get the idea I'm a right wing nut (nothing could be further from the truth) but I'd have to say the cure could be worse than the disease on this one if the Democrats got a tailwind.

Bne Cad 11:58 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
I've shorted Aud for .7600 before next up move but don't quote me on it. I'd also like to get some euro under 1.26 if possible (if funds permit).

Sydney2 11:57 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
HI all friends here, please give me your suggestions.
I bought Euro at 1.2660, what is the reasonable s/l level? Please help!

melbourne farmacia 11:56 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Was just about to say Gbp/Usd needs to bounce from 1.8120 or else 1.8050 will be printed.

Dublin Flip 11:55 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
well sydney the main reason asian's are supporting the USD agst their Currencies is because they are defending their patch agst ongoing RMB competitiveness (USD weakness). Now the by product of a RMB basket or revaluation deal by Washington will be that the only recent buyers of US assets will have reasons to back off from this practise. That will puke treasuries (amid the enormous incoming supply Junior and co have in the pipeline) which would drive up rates, pr.ick the real estate market and choke off the economy. I'm pretty sure no politician or central banker wants that to happen so I'd say the CHina bashing is more for local US consumption than any real brokering of a deal.

Tokyo WALL 11:52 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
FWIW, If GBP/USD doesn't go down to 1.8050 today, EUR/USD still has a go to 1.28/1.29 backed by EUR/GBP 250 day SMA support.

Sydney2 11:46 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip and dc,
Especially if Chinese RMB goes floating or widening exchange rate range and it will surely rise. And this will relieve appreciation of other majors, but JPY will be stronger further.

new york ys 11:43 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies

Looking for a break of 2650/2640 for 2560/2570. Will go long after. Need sleep, NYC is no fun for London trading.

LAX-LGB SNP 11:43 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
with reference to 14:47 GMT on January 6, 2004

selling gbp$ below 1.8200 is worth 1/2 a cent plus
buying $chf above 1.2282 has yielded a full cent
selling aud$ below 0.7691 is worth 25/30 bps
sell eurgbp below 0.7008 has grossed 20 odd bps
selling eurchf still far from 1.58 ... will wait for 1.57 to cap convincingly before we short ... if @ all
unable to sell gbpchf since 2.2370 failed to cap
pretty much flat for now :-)

Mmby. Tapash Basu. 11:43 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
DONT WORRY. ENJOY, EURO LOVER.

EUR/USD - the classic +triangle+ formation delivered more than our modest 1.2735 target and has been to 1.2810, but a sharp fall in Asia suggests that we may indeed get a corrective decline in the very short-term. The sell-off has reached 1.2655 so far and should make it to 1.2675/80 in early European session. Support may be seen at those levels, and a little rebound comes thereafter. However, we still see good chances of a 1.2550 pullback in the next few days. That should provide a much needed consolidation of previous gains, a pause which should be larger than anything seen since the late November bottom at 1.1756. Nonetheless, the major uptrend remains king further out -- the next rally targets 1.3000.

tks/tapash

Gen dk 11:39 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Tallinn viies 11:35 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
new york ys 11:21 - me, I got stoped out at 1,2654. now want to sell near 1,2710/40 area. fwiw

Dublin Flip 11:32 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
No worries mate
be lucky

dc fxq 11:28 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 11:22 GMT

You summed it up perfectly I think! Well done.

Melbourne Qindex 11:27 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:27 GMT January 7, 2004
EUR/GBP : The current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle reference is 0.6966 - 0.7026 and the mid-point reference is 0.6996. The next supporting point is positioning at 0.6902.

ikabod_25 11:22 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
i believe strongly that usdjpy is going to go for the nov 1999 low so just check in short at 106.15 placing my chute at 106.61.

Dublin Flip 11:22 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Well I agree with you on that one DC.
I was just pointing out that plenty have believed the BOJ is there to draw a line in the sand. Their strategy is to buy time and it has worked very well. They have managed to keep USD weakness to be 9.5% the past two years. The $jpy is of less crucial significance than in the nineties and with eur/jpy having rallied 10% per year the Jap exporters have had some healthy compensation from one market to another anyway.
Interesting to note that while euro has come off 160 pips $jpy remained on it's lows. I guess it implies Yen crosses appear to be in play now.

new york ys 11:21 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
anyone else looking for further declines in EUR/$

dc fxq 11:16 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 11:12 GMT

a major difference between standing back and/or adjusting its linbe in the sand and retreating. that was a strategic withdrawl in my mind. perhaps I misunderstood sydney2 but I interpreted his comment to mean a wholsale abandonment of intervention.

Athens 11:15 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Flip, ditto.

IKABOD_25 11:14 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
long cable just now at 1.8158 stp 1.8091 t/p 1.87.

Dublin Flip 11:12 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
dc, actually the BOJ has retreated repeatedlymost recently last monday from 106.90. They held in on monday while the worst of the eur$ rally was in progress with their eventual tactical retreat and liquidty re-emerged here. The main reason for the Eur$ strength is because USD weakness hasn't been fully excercised against the real problem - Asia.
When $jpy does eventually come considerably lower it will signal the Eur$ move will largely be over.

Athens 11:11 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
$/JPY remained in very narrow ranges in late 2003 and actually for most of last year thus making trading this pair rather academic. There is a local saying here, "the good day shows from morning". Judging by what we have seen durin the first week of 2004 I am not optimistic about better trading conditions in $/JPY this year either. The MOF has deterred trading. Otherwise Snow called for more flexible FX rates last September... I am curious, does the treas Sec really enjoy MOF policy and action? Oh, I forgot, all three European currencies have moved fantastically... I wonder, who's pulling whose leg?

Sydney2 11:05 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
dc and rb, agree with you

dc fxq 10:56 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 10:33 GM

precisely why should the BoJ "retreat" at this point in time? When have they "retreated" in past episodes of USD weakness? It ius wishful thinking on your part to think they (BoJ) will suddenly do an about face.

Sydney2 10:54 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Euro looks very weak at moment, just put at s/l at 1.2632.

london rb 10:54 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
see clement comment, said he expects ecb to closely watch euro exchange rate, and to monitor euro moves..........

LONDON rb 10:52 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
re sydney2...not sure how and when or if boj will retreat, 105 is a very big lvel for japanese exporters, and also heard a large 105.50 option barrier expires next week, till then at leat think boj may stay around....

nyc beyonding_destiny 10:45 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
GER ad 10:41 GMT January 7, 2004

imho, it could pull back as far as 133-133.5 area

GER ad 10:41 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
If EUR/JPY can't regain 134.60/70 the correction is not over IMHO.

Tbilisi GT 10:34 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
what indicators you find works best for eur/usd to enter market? any thoughts?

Sydney2 10:33 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
I also think BOJ may retreat, and this will make euro more difficult to run upwards, Does it sound reasonable?

Sydney2 10:27 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong nt, in this case, if euro goes back up my entry point I should take profit, and it is risk to hold it, right?

Tbilisi GT 10:15 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
rb thanks.

london rb 10:11 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
re sydney2...agree with you, think we will stay around here for a few days before resumed move higher...re tbilisi, think ur right to long eurusd again but not sure the right entry level, think it may go below 50 level..

Hong Kong nt 10:11 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 09:58 GMT -- though major funds are dollar bearish and expect to see 1.35-1.40 euro, given the relative small chance of the happening of a crashing dollar, they don't think price will reach said level in one go and thus they do not increase dollar short and instead start to liquidate ahead of 1.30. Later, at a better level, they may reload dollar shorts and ride the dollar downtrend again...

v.c..jr 10:10 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
waiting for euro 1.2550

Sydney2 10:07 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
I think e/$ will vibrate at current price for a few days.

Barcelona Tony 10:05 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
$ is back ...

Tbilisi GT 10:04 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
go long eurusd @ 1.2650?

Sydney2 10:02 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
london rb, thanks for your comment.

london rb 10:00 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
re sydney2..i think its profit taking, i don't see anything has changed re the dollar, heard good sellers seen today in eur and gbp against the dollar but think only p/t as i say...

Sydney2 09:58 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
euro retreats sharply these two days, it is just profit taken or any fundamental behind it? Comments welcome?

melbourne farmacia 09:54 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Good to see Red Candles again.

Stockholm za 09:52 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
CHF/JPY >> R & S zoan today
8725-8699
8674-8666
¤¤8633¤¤
8600-8593
8567-8542
Gate way at ~8532
Todays S3 ~8519
ema [ 34 & 55 ] in focus
Happy trades to all.....


Barcelona Tony 09:51 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
bye bye euro..gbp ... see you soon $chf 1.30 we'll see :-) GT GL

Sydney2 09:38 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies , my chart shows the low was at 1.2655, hope you were not stopped out. Good luck.

slv sam 09:37 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
AS long as $/y remains supressed i have no intention to short e/$.GT

nyc beyonding_destiny 09:37 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
some $yen short stop are building around 106.5-6...long here T/P 106.46 with a potential break to 106.8-107 area...stop??? anywhere if BoJ gave up...

nyc beyonding_destiny 09:35 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
beijing road 09:28 GMT January 7, 2004

imho, it may retreat to 2.23 area before any significant upside movement , T/P 2.27 , then double top Nov4/03 high 2.3..I feel this one of best pair for carry trade in 2004

beijing road 09:28 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Buy GBP/CHF, stop below 2,22 for medium-term player.

Gorizia IWA 09:25 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
gbpusd waiting 1.95 as from last years long term side channel has broken upwards

Gorizia IWA 09:24 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Have yet to finish but looks like
currency flows will lead markets this year reversing
forex-stock flows we have seen during the bubble

this might well lead the dollar down with us stock markets
while eurostoxx50 and nikkei225 will lead

guess the game will be clearer after during springtime

Geneva Oli 09:20 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Any comments on GBPUSD? - I am short with stop 1.8189 - Close call!!

beijing road 09:19 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Still buy EUR/JPY around 134.50

Gorizia IWA 09:14 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
s and p has a significant resistance 1,125
if It holds for some weeks could well call the year
of the bear instead of the monkey

hk ab 0.88 09:13 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
jf, maybe that commercial name read bc post here so he decided to liquidate at 1.28....... :)

Melbourne Qindex 09:11 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
prague mark 09:06 GMT - Basically the market is moving around my weekly cycle upper barrier at 1.8109 // 1.8202 and the mid-point reference is 1.8156.

Gorizia IWA 09:10 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
also this year there might be more defense spending by Bush, this will widend the gdp but the deficits too.

us 10 year yield if above 5.7 will force the FED to hike
but could be late 2004 or 2005

hk ab 0.88 09:07 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
jf, concur and thanks very much.

Gorizia IWA 09:07 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
good monkey year so

presently closely watching usd/jpy towards 104
most probably with some strenghtening on the
crosses side which could cap other majors upside
potential for some

gold and silver still in an complete upward trend
no need to short It yet

440 has not to be excluded and this will show if moneky
will bring us up to 550

sarasota jf 09:06 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
ab - thats one rumor - noone i speak to saw them - there were 2 other people who sold tho - an options name and a name u see quoted in the press- its fx as we know anything is possible and too discount anything is a mistake - gt

HK EL 09:06 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
I brought gbp at 1.8145 hope i will be alright

prague mark 09:06 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 09:00 GMT

why not 1.8211

Tasmania 09:04 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
ECB members may use Thursday's meeting to express concern over the threat to European exporters if the euro climbs over $1.30. There also remains some doubt over whether G7 finance ministers meeting Feb. 6 and 7 are prepared to endorse their Dubai sentiments given the extent of the dollar's decline since then, there is still capital flowing into the U.S.," he said, pointing out that as long as this covers the deficits, downward pressures on the U.S. currency shouldn't be as intense as initially feared
reuters

GER ad 09:02 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
ab,
Is doesn't look like we will see again 1.28 tonight or tomorrow...

Melbourne Qindex 09:00 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : the market is pulling back to the weekly cycle quantised level at 1.8109.

van Gecko 08:59 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
good morning islander.. sleepless in Antigua?
with the year of the Goats fleeting fast & Monkeys taking over, the majors are now within a critical price/time dynamics cluster.. the euro may be on the verge of being doubled crossed.. if not, some bulls/bears/pigs/& goats could turn into a bunch of mad donkeys..


Melbourne Qindex 08:59 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The mid-point reference between the weekly cycle quantised levels 1.2614 and 1.2716 is 1.2665.

hk ab 0.88 08:57 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
jf, could you confirm last night ECB has softly sold eur from 1.28?

I am thinking whether they will do the same thing again tonight.

Sydney2 08:53 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
HK EL, thanks

sarasota jf 08:50 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
ab - eurusd met downside but euryen lower i see - im thinking via a usdyen move - dont want to bore u with all the shorter term things - gt

HK EL 08:48 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
reward/risk ratio

Sydney2 08:48 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Hi, what does R/R mean?

hk ab 0.88 08:47 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
yen game.....

HK EL 08:46 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Good R/R?

Sydney2 08:45 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Just long euro at 1.2660, hope it will turn back

sf mike 08:44 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Anybody know why usdjpy is not participating?

hk ab 0.88 08:42 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
2nd aud/cad short .9900

melbourne pizza 08:41 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
ah finally we see the short term correction the long is sustained on USD/CAD.. yippee

Cairo MDR 08:39 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
my first traget 2670 for my short from 2720 is achieved and waiting for the next target...2650

hk ab 0.88 08:39 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
jf, is your limit placed?

st. pete islander 08:36 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 08:30 GMT

Good morning/day, Gecko. Glad you're here. Year of the Monkey will not make us cow-er. Mad or not. gt

hk ab 0.88 08:35 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
nt, Kevin made a perfect job on eur/jpy last night short at 135.96!!!! Dann crazy! ;)

van Gecko 08:30 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Mad Cows notwithstanding, the high flying Kangaroo hopping past .7640 could induce some Mad Bulls to howl (or moo moos) all the way down to the .7550's & beyond..
this is the 1st time a slight case of 'cold_feet_titist' is evident within the ranks of longkies & 'I wanna buy @ every 50 pip dippers'.. it may be too late to join the bull_wagon party..
cheerios

Melbourne Qindex 08:28 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : The market is currently trading below 421.

Melbourne Qindex 08:27 GMT January 7, 2004
Spot Gold : Monthly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 407.7 // 412.3, 417, 421.6, 426.3, 430.9 // 435.6 ...


Riga Nick 08:27 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Hello.
I suppose that the situation on EUR market now rather tend to be bearish. From my point of view it's time to look for opportinity to sell EURUSD.

Melbourne Qindex 08:25 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 08:24 GMT January 7, 2004
GBP/USD : The current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle is 1.8020 - 1.8268 and the mid-point reference is 1.8144.



Melbourne Qindex 07:58 GMT January 7, 2004
GBP/USD : The current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle is 1.8109 - 1.8202 - 1.8295.

Melbourne Qindex 07:40 GMT January 7, 2004
GBP/USD : The lower barrier of my daily cycle is expected at 1.8174 // 1.8211 and the upper barrier is located at 1.8362 // 1.8399.


... 1.8174 // 1.8211, 1.8249, 1.8287 ... 1.8362 // 1.8399 ...

Kaunas DP 08:22 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD long 1.8183

Tallinn viies 08:19 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
@1,2695 went long, stop at 1,2654

London AL 08:16 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Chicago 21:39 GMT SNOW: to speak gmt 16:00 at us chamber of commerce lunch "Political & Economic Priorities for 2004"

SA Bok 08:15 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Somebody set up GBP for Dump ?? Any views Sarasota maybe somebody with an inside view interbank ? TIA

Juneau CAR 08:13 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Gold and US dollar are in a perfect inverse correlation. So if one wants to know about gold they need to learn about currencies.

So here I am a goldbug learning a new language. You guys are sort of like goldbugs on speed-lol.

Cairo MDR 08:13 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Euro is heading towards 2670-50 region before any further new records....

Tbilisi GT 08:13 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
hi everyone.
I am relatively new to the forex market.
Any suggestions for going long eurusd this time?

thanks

sf mike 08:13 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
I miss the opening move. Do you think that's the last straw for EUR and GBP?

Tallinn viies 08:12 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
sarasota jf 07:54 - thnks

Nassau QF 08:10 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Isn't USD/CHF on a downtrend?

Monterrey Niman10-1 08:09 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, ab: according to some good traders, the EUR lead is eur/gbp, which has also shown some weakness, watch out. GL & GT.

Hong Kong nt 08:03 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- bought USD/CHF at 1.2250 and will take a rest for a while until price hits 1.3050...

beijing road 07:56 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
ab: NO, I just hold my long position.

sarasota jf 07:54 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 07:47 GMT January 7, 2004
with the good orders in eurgbp - eur struggle to move higher immediately - im with oga a drop into 1.2665 and then long for 1.2830 - euryen i like correction to 133.50 area - but this maybe usdyen driven when gets thru 106 eventually - i wouldnt short gbp - with asians still demand gbp and eurgbp orders prefer the eur trading - gl

hk ab 0.88 07:52 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
road, you heavily bought eur?

beijing road 07:51 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
keep going with the trend!

Tallinn viies 07:47 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
sarasota jf 07:43 GMT - hi, what do you see on the euro/dollar front?

Melbourne Qindex 07:44 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

MONACO OGA 07:44 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 07/01
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (Currently 1.2740). Another day , another new high (1,2813). The US currency continues to be soft agains the EUR. 1,2650-80 is now appearing as the nearest support zone while we see next logical target around 1.2850. With euro politicians issuing positive comments about the EUR appreciation, the market now fully realizes the extense of the deal between the US and their partners to devaluate the US currency de facto. We believe we have not seen the end of this move yet, and a long term target now appears around 1,3500. For the short term trading, the 130 pips retracement overnight looks a good opportunity to build long positions.

Data out today:
EMU industrial confidence Dec expected -6.0 11.00 GMT
EMU economic confidence Dec expected 96.2 11.00 GMT
EMU consumer confidence Dec expected -15.0 11.00 GMT

Gold around 422 back from 429, a 15 years high , with WTI February at 33,51.

***JPY***
Usd/Jpy (currently 106,25), the BOJ/MOF is back at 106 with a related 6 Bio USD purchased for yesterday only. This 106 level appears the last support zone before 100. The USD is still under pressure, and we believe the japanese authorities are gearing up for more intervention tools and are getting ready to defend the highly psychological 100 level later this year (not seen since Nov 1995). For today, short positions around 106,40 appear the most logical strategy.EUR/JPY (135,20) is currently consolidating inside 134,40 / 135,60.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1.8240) now pulling EUR along and printing another 12 years high at 1,8270 (our target yesterday). The pair retraced to 1,8180 overnight before resuming its uptrend. Yesterday's house prices for Dec show real estates prices are still up and suggest the possibility of further UK rate hikes. Most likely 2004 will see some trading around 1,85-1,90. Supports for the day at 1,8180 and 1,8060 with temporary resistance at 1,8270 before 1,8400.
EUR/GBP (0.6980), broke 0,7000 support pivotal point and is looking to test 0,6940. Overnight PM Blair stated UK would join Euro zone by 2007, but we very much doubt so and most probablelyl will he be gone by that time.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

sarasota jf 07:43 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
gbpusd - mid asia demand again seen from 1.8220 to here thru uk bank - bought roughly same time yesterday

Melbourne Qindex 07:40 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dhahran maz 07:39 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex many thanx

Melbourne Qindex 07:30 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Dhahran maz 07:09 GMT - The following is still valid :-

Melbourne Qindex 00:04 GMT January 4, 2004
EUR/USD : The critical level of my 3-month projection profile is positioning at 1.2690 - 1.2775. Speculative short positions will increase if the market is trading below 1.2505 and the short term target is 1.2258.

Tallinn viies 07:29 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
good morning world
euro have corrected 135 pips from the top and previous day low held - this talks for new push higher.

suggesting to buy the euro near figure. stop to 1,2654/59 area. target 1,2810/20

hk ab 0.88 07:25 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
gbp/chf is breaking monthly chart downtrend.

When the upmove unfold, I think it will be unfolded in the way like eur/chf.

SA Bok 07:21 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Looks to me someone took out EURGBP Stops ..

hk ab 0.88 07:18 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
flat eur

hk ab 0.88 07:16 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
place order to sell aud/nzd 1.1490.

hk ab 0.88 07:14 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
trail at 33.

hk ab 0.88 07:13 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
taken 1/2 eur long at 1.2740
keep the other 1/2 trail.

Alicante RTN 07:12 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Robert P. Balan at the online danish forex bank just called for the correction to extend to 1.2670/50 level with a bounce to 1.2730 and further correction to 1.2570/50 level later this week.

As his calls are good contrarian inidicators, this eurusd mini-correction is probably done and the eurusd is heading towards 1.28 level.

Dhahran maz 07:09 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex Thank you very much

Melbourne Qindex 07:09 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 07:01 GMT - EUR/USD : It is under pressure, so use the weekly cycle analysis for reference at this moment.

Melbourne Qindex 07:06 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Dhahran maz 07:00 GMT - EUR/USD : The market is trying to overcome the lower barrier of my daily at 1.2736 // 1.2754. the current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 1.2614 - 1.2716 - 1.2818.

hk ab 0.88 07:02 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
eurchf looks like a big parabolic upmove.....

retreat the short plan.

hk ab 0.88 07:01 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Vikram, thanks.
I am waiting to see the reaction at 50 and 00 later today.

QC WC 07:01 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, gud pm! Re your post on Euro, Euro currently trading below your lower barrier 1.2736 and high for the day bid is only at your lower barrier? So does it mean it would go down more? TIA

Dhahran maz 07:00 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex hello
I'm in a long in EUR/USD at 1.2725;is it ok?
Thank u

Melbourne Qindex 06:52 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:51 GMT January 7, 2004
EUR/USD : The upper barrier of my daily cycle is positioning at 1.2842 // 1.2859 and the lower barrier is expected at 1.2736 // 1.2754.


... 1.2736 // 1.2754, 1.2771, 1.2790 ... 1.2824, 1.2842 // 1.2859 ...

Calcutta Vikram 06:49 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
hk ab....my reply to your post regarding the EURGBP is below. Pls forgive me if I miss out on someone's post.....I tend to drop in much less into GV these days. There's something or the other always taking up time. Cheers. (Need to move out of the office again now).

My best wishes to all Forum participants.

guangzhou lolo 06:45 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
thanks very much, bc, gt..

hk ab 0.88 06:44 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
friends I am waiting the next big move on aud/nzd... coming soon.....

I have some downside bias at the moment but not very sure yet.

melbourne pizza 06:37 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
milwaukee kb ,just refreshed the charts, it appears your on the right side of the coin and appears the 194.5 will be tested and break through shortly

Melbourne Qindex 06:35 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Sydney KF 00:28 GMT - Currently I don't need to run the daily cycle on HSI.

Milwaukee KB 06:27 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
does anybody have an opinion on the GBP/JPY? im in it long at the moment hoping it livens up a bit to reach around near 194.5 or so

shanghai bc 06:16 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   

LOLO 04:46 -- Good afternoon..SNB's main aim must be trying to make sure CHF does not rise too much against main European trading partners because most of the trade is with them..And like last year,they are very busy on CHF crosses thus making Usd/Chf front relatively stable too..But given the flow size,BOJ is not as lucky as SNB in their attempt..BOJ may even buy that small country with their intervention money..Good trades..

Tasmania 05:43 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
FW CS would you be able to explain to Sydney2 the relevance of Options and how the affect spot trades ( you will probably do a better job the I)

Tasmania 05:41 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
kuwait RH IFR

kuwait RH 05:35 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Tasmania 05:08 GMT January 7, 2004
No doubt those options (if they exist and if get done) can have an immediate effect on the spot market. But pls clarify how u got such info! GLGT

Calcutta Vikram 05:32 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
hk ab.....Yes, I'm watching EURGBP and do intend to take a Long as near 0.6950 as possible. This is a trade with a 3-5 month time frame, with a potential loss of 4.3% and gain of 7.9%. Cheers

Sydney2 05:22 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
hi, Tasmania , where did you get these data and how will they possibly influence spot forex market movement? Thanks.

FW CS 05:22 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Euro fractal which it must hold and close above today is 1.2707 to keep the pressure on the upside. A close below there leaves 1.2640 open on downside.

Tasmania 05:08 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Hefty [EUR/USD] stops below 1.2680.
Options today.
AUD option barrier still at 0.7750. Downside barriers not
seen till 0.7100.

Large [USD/JPY] stops still tipped below 106.00, 105.80,
105.50 and 105.00.

Large [EUR/USD] 1.2500 and smaller 1.2600 option expiries at
the NY cut tonight.

Large [USD/JPY] 105.50, 106.00, 106.80, 108.50 and a small
107.15 option expiries at the New York cut tonight

guangzhou lolo 04:46 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
bc, nice to see you again. do you think swiss banker also will take any action at these level. tia..

hk ab 0.88 04:31 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
buy some euros to sell later. 1.2725.

hk ab 0.88 04:29 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
YQB, how much do you long?

hk ab 0.88 04:25 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, I think jpy is the dictator..... imvho.

Quebec YQB 04:21 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Anyone Long Eur/Jpy?

melbourne farmacia 04:17 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
If Usd/Cad still acts as a Dollar leader - watch her carefully - Cad broke out of my directional indicator which suggests a bottem has formed. FWIW

Saihat 03:54 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
if they rise the interst for $, i guess eur will rise thes year

and market will ignore interst

Ldn 03:36 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
US basks in dollar decline

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3371679.stm

The flip side of the coin is higher prices in Europe.

A well-heeled - and fearless-of-flying - American might have spent $1,500 on a weekend at the fanciest hotels in London a year ago. Now, the luxury will cost an extra $175.

Ldn 03:33 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Warning over dollar


Export New Zealand says exporters will not be the only ones to suffer if the dollar continues to rise
http://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/default.asp?id=38659&cat=976&c=w

nyc beyonding_destiny 03:25 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
nice, 1.2345 of swissie T/Ped...reload at 1.227 T/P 1.24

Saihat 03:03 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Hialeah PF 12:19 GMT January 6, 2004

if you see 1000 pips gain (monthly).... it is for 2 lot not 1 lot

so i asume only 500 pips gian for 1 lot (for him)

at end , i asume only 250 pips gain (for me )

Qubec YQB 03:02 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Any comments on Eur/Jpy? I know you guys don't really talk about it much. I would imagine that this cross depends on how much Eur/Usd corrects itself.

shanghai bc 02:35 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   

AB -- Good morning..I am no good at day trading and BOJ is just trying to keep its neck above the water despite its heavy buying..Cycle is still not in their favour..

KC -- Good morning..

Tasmania 02:27 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Waitress Isolated At Hospital In Guangzhou
CNBC asianews. just out

Tasmania 02:23 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Australia's Housing Industry Association warns 6.7% fall in November building approvals November, when RBA began tightening cycle raises concerns RBA could overshoot with rate hikes. the say the impact of November, December increases need to be absorbed. Industry has clearly peaked they say.

ABC/

Houston KC 02:15 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 02:05 GMT January 7, 2004

Hi BC always nice to see you around. So would you think this last little run up from 106.20-106.40 is BOJ activity? If so then that looks like a quick 2 billion to add to the barrel of money they are dumping...as you say must be nice.

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:13 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY looks like it will touch 194.17-48-77

Probably 195.08-11 today if it keeps up the action of yesterday it can even hit 195.41.

Let's trade this pair tonight.

NYC YIPPEE 02:13 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE 02:55 GMT January 6, 2004
FWIW Buying USDJPY @ 18.. Tight S/l 90..

Figure what the heck.. It's gonna see 107.50 b4 105.90 IMO

hk ab 0.88 02:11 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
bc, do you think it's reliable to join them ;)..

Good day!

Penn Jw 02:09 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Canberra. Just finished downloading it now.

shanghai bc 02:05 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   

This week alone,BOJ folks are spending several billions each day just to make sure the market understands what they are up to..It seems these folks spend one billion dollar per ten pips in Usd/Jpy at present..Nice to be BOJ..Fwiw..

canberra jsh 02:03 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Anyone using Gee eef tee as their broker tried the new deal book 2 now that it is offered as the full version rather than the beta testing demo? tia

hk ab 0.88 01:54 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Vikram, your eur/gbp target is coming, will you long as planned?

Livingston nh 01:44 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Tasmania - if you have an economic model plug in a balanced US current account and US budget surplus - Mr Keegan's Pound used to be worth ~5 USD // hard to convince all those "buy and Hold" stock market Bubblers that maybe a budget surplus shrunk their equity // If the US doesn't buy what happens to aggregate demand?

Tasmania 01:40 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy I dont see the writer being negative the US administration moreover saying that the rest of the world will have to tolerate it whilst the US economy recovers , and that Bush and Co know exactly what they are doing

USA Biscuit Boy 01:36 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Tasmania sounds like that commentator is not a fan of Mr Bush and Greenspan. I find it moronic to bash Bush for the current budget deficit. What do you expect? We are in recovery mode and rebuilding a few nations. That takes government spending. If this huge budget deficit is still not shrinking in 5 years when the economy is self sustaining then the analysts and commentators can rightfully complain then. But to do so now? Absolutely clueless!

Gen dk 01:33 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Tasmania 01:25 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
'The best recovery money can buy'

The US economy is roaring, but its success is ill-founded and potentially bad news for everyone else, writes William Keegan

L I N K

hk ab 0.88 01:19 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
the aud/cad and aud/jpy shorts finally work out.

Perth AS 01:00 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
World Cup did make quite a difference to the end of the year sales in Australia - can see the next few months data in negative territory.

Hospitality and services rose 2.2%, getting a
further rise from the Rugby World Cup, which helped boost that sector's sales
by 3.6% in October.

Tasmania 00:52 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Australian building approvals slid 6.7% over the month, with October revised down from a 1.6% rise to just 0.3%. which is a negative for a rate rise .

Chicago 00:51 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
(near)parabolic moves usually end in a steep sell off as trailing stops get triggered, then there is a sharp rally, followed by the sustained selloff. Let's see how this one plays out...Thats IF we are indeed near a top!

hk ab 0.88 00:49 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
will take the 10 pips off from the long this morning on aussie.

Tasmania 00:42 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Building approval fell 6.7% against forecasts of a
5% fall and private sector housing fell 1.2%.
Retail Trade Up 1.4% however, Rugby world cup accounted for elevated sales in November.
AP

mtl gg 00:41 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Mad Cow parents Aussie eh? and it was born in Canada..

But is not the point where the feed came from??? After all thats how the infection starts (or so I presumed).. ??

Maybe the feed was from NZ?? Or any other beef producing nation

London Paul_ex trader 00:40 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Marc: How you doing? Resisting the temptations? Picking the tops is a dangerous game. Having said that it's always hard to buy at certain levels, until it's 75 pips higher then it looked a bargin!

Sydney KF 00:28 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
So Qindex, so will you run an analysis on HK Hang Seng sometime today?

ICT ML 00:25 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
If you look @ weekly euro charts.......3 seperate upper channel lines converge @ 1.2800+/- some pips....Looking to buy 1.2700 area later on maybe, for another run at it.. but if it sells off a bunch, the big buy area would be 1.2425-50 area, AFTER it tests and holds.....fibo stuff and daily ema20 there.

$swiss weekly looks like it "could" turn up this week, but would rather see it hit the weekly channel bottom first, then turn up late next week or week after maybe myself....takes the doubt out of it...LOL...but I did have a "buy" urge I surpressed
earlier today on some divergence stuff I see on hourly charts....

Cable....who the helll knows......broke out vertical out of an over bought near vertical channel........BUT...it stopped on a weekly channel top.....a very steep channel...so it might pull back some this week. But now we are forging into the "pride reclamation" area of Big Georges 92-93 conquest..... I see 1.8500 before any real down move starts right now....but heck....that could be in the morning...LOL

New Years resolution is to trade with the trends at least 80% of time this year, and only fade the moves on clear daily signals and channel lines....so trying real hard to control my "sell it all" instincts......LOL

You guys have fun. I will be in from time to time.

Spotforex NY 00:17 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
More market talk - Tasmania 00:11 GMT January 7, 2004
MARKET TALK: Tests Show US BSE Cow Born In Canada

WITH with Australian parents......

The rumors grow and circulate...

Tasmania 00:17 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
(AP) -Genetic testing confirms cow diagnosed with first U.S. case of mad cow disease was born in Canada, U.S. and Canadian agriculture officials said Tuesday, They now intensify search for source of infection in Alberta, where the Holstein cow was born in 1997. Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman announced mad cow diagnosis on Dec. 23, first time the disease has been found in the U.S. since its discovery in Britain in the mid-1980s.

LondonJoe 00:13 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Van please see http://www.tomdemark.com/
indicator index , then sequential for a good summary , basically it is a technical analysis idicator which gives very good buy and sell signals well before many traditional technical studies do...

Tasmania 00:11 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Tests Show US BSE Cow Born In Canada

Sydney2 00:11 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Buy Euro now? Comments please?

Melbourne Qindex 00:09 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
I am going to have an early lunch with Dublin id1, see you guys later.

Melbourne Qindex 00:07 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 00:01 GMT - Thank you for your information. The Chinese commodities fever is a big story in Australia.

Tasmania 00:07 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD technical measures, such as RSI, stochastics, at most extreme since AUD floated, says ANZ senior currency strategist Craig Ferguson; reuts.

Melbourne Qindex 00:05 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Sydney KF 00:01 GMT - This can be arranged. I run Nikkei-225 for Mr. Nebuyuki Nakahara. I wish I can run the forex analysis for him.

Sydney KF 00:01 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, what do u think of the hk market? any analysis on that?

shanghai bc 00:01 GMT January 7, 2004 Reply   

QINDEX -- Thanks..Dollar seems to be under attack more from commodity side than from forex side at present..I was told that some 60% of the ships passing through Malacca Strait were Chinese ships while another 20% is foreign ships going and coming out of Chinese ports..And incredibly,a half of them were laiden with commodities of all kinds..Similar story from our boys in Panama Canal too..But CB here is still trying very hard to cool down this commodity bull in China a bit in Q1..

 




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