Forex Forum Archive for 01/08/2004

nyc tony 23:52 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Lahore///
Hey buddy, why such tight stops? Seems to be pretty tough to call with the euro dancing like a chicken on a hot stove.

melbourne farmacia 23:51 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Gbp/Usd should complete this current run at 1.8380 from my reading. If momentum resumes on break expect 1.8551 to take profits.

Gen dk 23:49 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

CT DB 23:44 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate,
thks, gr8 moves over the last 2 days! the market was due a corrective move and it fell to 1.2580 area. i went long from 1.2590 :-) ! so im hoping that we see 1.30++++. I dont post much simply because it clouds my thoughts. read it 3-4 times a day and thats it. that way i can just keep upwith the comments which are value add. Fund is off the ground now too, which keeps me busy.

Tasmania. 23:41 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Talk around EBS having a lot of technical problems; with the market hugely positioned one way short USD they say that conditions donot create the orderly market that is being mentioned by the FED etc. with huge amount of dollars being purchased by Japan commercial banks talk is some counterparties unable to execute orders as have reached credit limits with Japan banks.
Reuters

v.c..jr 23:37 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
euro...sell-12814

lahore FM 23:24 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Tony,
An even better price to sell the Euro.Stop 1.2792

Rivonia PipPirate 23:23 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
CT DB 23:13 Hi DB, yep you too I see, and best of British luck to you for 2004. After a monster move like yesterday the brain is buzzing. Have not seen you posting for a while, why so quiet?

hk ab 23:14 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
undeniable that eur/chf doesn't look v. nice.
exited the long at breakeven sideline.

CT DB 23:13 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate,
hello..all the best 4 the new year..burning the nite oil again hey?
gl & gt

Rivonia PipPirate 23:07 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Tasmania 22:53 or..... the $ is going where they want it to go

Bandung Dewan 23:06 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
good morning australia!
does anyone has an opinion with all datas for today?

Tasmania 23:01 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Yen must be super glued into the ground

Tasmania 22:53 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
The Fed must be fairly confident they will be able to correct the Dollar when they decide enough is enough or they are they over confident they can control the markets.

hk ab 22:50 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
syd, no trend is everlasting though :)

How are you going? just long aud only?

Deauville Izaak 22:48 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
The rally we saw today on euro (almost 150 pips in 2 hours) tells a lot about what operators think about this currency. Even in overbought levels, euro keeps going up.We find the euro where we left it before the ECB meeting. No change of policy? so, back the reality.

syd 22:47 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
so all the analysts predicitng a sharp AUD fall over xmas and new year have gone fairly quiet havent they.

last we heard it had apparently hit a long term high around 74/75.

Just wonder if these guys actually trade.

long AUD has been simple, straight forward , money maker, and you get paid to hold the position.

hk ab 22:46 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
The eur might still have some length to go. But mkt eventually corrects. Look at Nasdaq.........few years ago.
What is more important is a famous statement:
"Don't run in front of the herd." If the herd is still pushing it higher everyday. Let it go and avalanche can easily be detected by mkt later. GT and GL.

nk demonstrates a good model to us, trade the right time, take a break at the right time.

Deauville Izaak 22:42 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 22:30 GMT January 8, 2004

As long as central banks camp on their position, there is no reason why euro shoud heading south. The situation is the same now than before. In this configuration, euro will rise rise rise till the FED or the ECB find the situation unconfortable. So , 1.30 will be soon a concrete cold fact....

Tasmania 22:42 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
hk ab I feel a bit like that with the Euro - infact cant really understand the thinking of the Bush Admin crazy to let the dollar freefall madness - if the BOJ tell them to get stuffed they really will be in the censored

hk ab 22:39 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Nope, I gave it up yesterday. Only did an aud/nzd short which is also closed this morning.

Tasmania 22:34 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
hk ab are you touching the Aus/Dr pair

hk ab 22:31 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
exited the aud/nzd shorts at 1.1440, not bad.
This range has a longer term to run now.

Tallinn viies 22:30 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
one thing is clear to me now. euro close on friday will be higher than right now.
how to use this view?
complicates because previous day low too far away. anyway, I will try to be long. until 1,2550/55 remains untouched Im buying euros....
fwiw

Tasmania 22:28 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Australian trade deficit expected still wide by historic standards with strong AUD encouraging importsdue 0030 GMT today

Philadelphia 22:24 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
If Possible could someone Post a list

New York Europe
--------- -------
22:00 16:00 would this be right???

Warwick Sat 22:20 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Philadalphia. Its 10:20 GMT right now , Europe I believe starts around 07:00 GMT and New York at 13:00 GMT... Sorry I have to go now, good night..

Philadelphia 22:14 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Warwick, Also I understand the GMT time zones is what is most commoly used. when Europe Seesions starts at 06H00 what time is this and when NY sessions are in swing the time is 12H00 I believe that is is 12noon est. Please keep in mind Iam Eastern Standard Time Zone. Any help I would appreciate it

Villers/Mer Max 22:14 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Euro is good to sell below 1.2755 to reach 1.2710

Warwick Sat 22:09 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Philadelphia, use the Archive facilty at the top of this page.. In the comments box just put GBP or CHF for example and the date ( maybe todays ).. good luck.. its a great facility..

Mtl JP 21:57 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
G7 Finance Ministers meeting on February 6

Philadelphia 21:56 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
If,anybody can help I'm unable to scroll the screen down to see the previous messages,

Miami OMIL 21:51 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
A lot of good people contribute to this information pool we call forum. They give without asking anything in return I thank them very much for their time and effort. EUR/USD continued to climb and seems to have settled at 1.2760 area with a 1.2780 high for the day. Resistance is still the high so far 1.2810, 1.2825-30 and 1.2850 which is top of the channel in my chart. The trend continues until the fat lady sings and there is no music yet. Fib retracement numbers are 1.2700, 1.2670 and 1.2640. Support right now is at 1.2680 1.2660-55 and 1.2610-00 with bottom at 1.2560-55 IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Tasmania 21:27 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
option expiries on Friday.
JPY 106.20
JPY 105.15
JPY 107.00
EUR 1.2300
EUR 1.2500
AUD 0.7640
AUD 0.7650
(both lge)

LA saint3 21:26 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
hi ..
i am not updated with the news.
When is the g7 meeting again?

TIA

NC TS 21:26 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Thanks lahore..I just try to be concise and exact with my ideas...right or wrong..anyone can say buy or sell etc..try to give measurable targets and ideas....this way if Im right or wrong everyone can see it and determine if Im useful at all.

lahore FM 21:21 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
TS,
U are a fine position strategist,nonrtheless.

lahore FM 21:19 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Friday makes for a fine day for vindication of analysis.Let us see.

NC TS 21:17 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
#'s out of US tomorrow, but todays volatility signals, at least in my opinion a temp top in EUR. Lots of people talking about selling EUR/USD, but many not in it. Sell 1/2 position here and sell 1/2 position at 1.2790. S/L at 1.2855 and t/p at 1.2405. If 1.2675 trades, lower stop to b/even and enjoy the free ride. Above 1.2855 opens 1.3350 in a hurry and there we hear from ECB/FED in form of intervention. Good luck

lahore FM 21:17 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Do it now.stop 1.2786.U won't regret it.

nyc tony 21:15 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
And if the euro goes 1.30 I will sell the censored out of it. That's a promise

LAX-LGB SNP 21:15 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Melb mpfx 19:22 GMT January 8, 2004 thanks for the reminder

LA ARTOFYEN 20:53 GMT January 8, 2004 haha lol - not to forget those censored dirty nailz

not to be forgotten
... Sarasota JF and Singapore SFX :-) who da man - ya da EUR$ man !

Villers/Mer Max 21:14 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
EURO GOOD TO BUY .STOP AT ONE TWENTY SEVEN FIFTY FIVE

nyc tony 21:14 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
lahore///
The euro is "in play" right now. The same principles apply to everything right now because almost all moves currently are based on the $. Strong $ all retrace vs, Weak $ all advance on. However, this euro is somewhat irrational currently and could advance easily to 1.3000++ while the Cad advances to approx 1.2750.

lahore FM 21:08 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Tony,
Ur Yesterday's call for long USD/CAD still good and if u look at the same indicators u were using to to long Dollar against the goose u wud be selling the censored out of Euro right now.What do u say??

LAX-LGB SNP 21:06 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
u$dcad represents a buy @ mkt right now
eurjpy showing sell signs below 136.00 if new highs are not made
eurchf trading within neutral zone - look to trade on bid side on an hourly breakout

hats off to Kolkata Vikram for the EURGBP call yesterday :-)


with reference to pre-EZ views 07:24 GMT January 8, 2004
1.2596 held for EURUSD and price failed below 1.28 ... well 150 bps are better than nothing
GBPUSD closed above 1.8205 and price is 130 bps higher
1.2406/1.2443 zone gave way for USDCHF and price is an awesome 200+ bps lower
AUDUSD cleared the 0.7670/0.7690 zone surpassing the old high of 0.7728 and we are richer by 50 cents :-)

for a change the majors are superseding their country cousins and adding to our equity

nyc tony 21:01 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
this euro is making me think and I don't like that. lol. Usually there is some squaring/profit taking after a strong rally but not so today. I wanna short this sucka but i'll wait and see. $/CAD is still a great play at these levels I added more to my long

Livingston nh 21:01 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
ARTY - is the whole greater than the sum of the parts?- I'm thinking of doin' a souveneir parts type sale on e-bay - I think I can depreciate the remainder over life expectancy

lahore FM 20:59 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Sold 10x EUR/USD.Stop 1.2786

LA ARTOFYEN 20:53 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Livingston, based on your political affiliation, cut that corpse loose before Nov or slightly thereafter. Remember, that beard will still grow!

Tasmania 20:51 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
By the way whats the reward for Bin Laden now?

Warwick Sat 20:49 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Glad to be of assistance, Gamber, but beyond this I am not really "qualified" to comment on movements, sorry !

Saudi Arabia Gamber 20:45 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Warwick, I did and found his calls very usful if i was online that time. what am concerning now is the view of the e$ for the coming hours. he is stating that it is going to touch 1.2830
I hope he is right.

Warwick Sat 20:41 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Gamber, I would strongly recommend you use the Archive facility at the top of this page to serch for some very informative comments made by "raden_masandi" not too long ago today... You must type the name exactly as above and do a serch from 01/08/2004 to 01/08/2004.. Good Luck.

Memphis Charles 20:28 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Yipppeeeee.....

Saudi Arabia Gamber 20:27 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Warwick Sat, thank u for the reply.

I missed the upmove of the eur today and very disapponted.
what is the view of this pair please. it is holding now in 1.2760. IMHO the pair is going to resume up, but after some time of holding 1.2735. any ideas?

Warwick Sat 20:21 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Gamber, I think Raden will be finished for the night now..

Livingston nh 20:21 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
ARTIE - I got bin's corpse in my cellar - have to hold for the favorable cap gains b4 I turn it into cash

LA ARTOFYEN 20:17 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
A joke to the rest of ya trigger happy types........

LA ARTOFYEN 20:17 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Yippie, I think we found Bin Laden!!

Saudi Arabia Gamber 20:12 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
hi all
is raden around? please reply to me

Livingston nh 20:05 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
A substantial revision to US Oct Consumer Credit and a 10% increase in Nov (but plastic declined) - plastic (revolving credit) probably got paid down as a result of re-fi

NYC YIPPEE 20:05 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
" detinguesh " ????

slv sam 19:41 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
it is impossible to detinguesh between e/$ and e/y graphs!!

Global-View 19:35 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
For those in the NYC area, Doug Schaff at Fx-Strategy is holding an excellent trading seminar on January 19. If interested, click on this LINK

Livingston nh 19:33 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
QF - US consumer credit (nov) comes out soon - usually not a market mover - gamble buy before - wait and buy after - GAMBLE - I would buy 1/2 now and add at 1.2790 (your money not mine)

slv sam 19:28 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Melb mpfx 19:22 /
I like the 14% figure matethe!.GT

Nassau QF 19:23 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh, Thanks for your input.
You think it's too high to take a buy position or is it just too soon to tell?

Melb mpfx 19:22 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw//
BC wrote not that long ago that currencies often overshoot their fair value by some 10 to 15%.
He stated that 1.1500 to him was fair value for euro.
Below is a table that shows .5% added to 1.1500
Just some interesting numbers and maybe 1.3225 = 15% overshoot is not out of the question........
GT

Fair Value ~ 1.1500
1.0% ~ 1.1615
1.5% ~ 1.1673
2.0% ~ 1.1730
2.5% ~ 1.1788
3.0% ~ 1.1845
3.5% ~ 1.1903
4.0% ~ 1.1960
4.5% ~ 1.2018
5.0% ~ 1.2075
5.5% ~ 1.2133
6.0% ~ 1.2190
6.5% ~ 1.2248
7.0% ~ 1.2305
7.5% ~ 1.2363
8.0% ~ 1.2420
8.5% ~ 1.2478
9.0% ~ 1.2535
9.5% ~ 1.2593
10.0% ~ 1.2650
10.5% ~ 1.2708
11.0% ~ 1.2765
11.5% ~ 1.2823
12.0% ~ 1.2880
12.5% ~ 1.2938
13.0% ~ 1.2995
13.5% ~ 1.3053
14.0% ~ 1.3110
14.5% ~ 1.3168
15.0% ~ 1.3225

Livingston nh 19:18 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
QF - it may never happen - BUT I would (but I am NoT) trade for a move to 1.28 before london opens

Global-View 19:15 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
New York, welcome but please post in lower case letters.

Nassau QF 19:14 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Do you think it may happen at New York close or Tokyo open or earlier/later?

NEW YORK IN DEBT 19:14 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
WHEN WILL DLRYEN BREAK LOWER ?

NEW YORK 19:11 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
HELLO ALL, JUST MY FIRST POST, WANTED TO MAKE SURE I AM POSTING CORRECTLY,

Livingston nh 19:11 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
QF - fwiw - the EUR at 1,2750 is still an outside day to the upside - a break above 128 still looks good

Nassau QF 19:05 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD purchase is busted my stop loss.
Not a problem though Raden, you've been very good with your other calls.

You only need to be right half the time to make a profit and you seem to be right much more than half the time.

Livingston nh 18:41 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Detroit tm - thanx but I have been consistently wrong on CAD (most recently when it broke above the 21 da mva and couldn't get thru last failure at 1.34 nov hi) - I've been in GBP/CAD but the sterling side has saved my butt // IMVVHO- the chinese are having an effect on CAD - if the CNY is going to revalue the tip will be US short rates and CAD will be sold (my crazy opinion is that China should combine w/HKD at about 9.02 to 9.13 DEVAL to avoid inflation)// energy and pharma is helping CAD re: trade but aggregate demand in Canada looks soft - Dodge position is US recovery makes all well but...

RE: NT - yeah LU, CSCO, CIEN are running nu-hi despite JDSU hurting a bit - still no profits for these guys but hope springs eternal (I only trade Index options)

Toronto BA 18:41 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Guys, is anyone trading with Capital Market Services? Their server is down again! And again! And AGAAAIIIINNN !!! What the censored is going on, this brokerage is a censored joke !%$#@!!!

Munich Ron 18:32 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
$yen, where will you go ?

chicago jack 18:11 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Raden, what is your opinion once gbp reaches 1.838? i heard on bloomberg today that boe is expected to raise rates at next month's meeting, how would you pick a entry and target for a correction on the gbp if a rate hike is expected in just one month time?

chicago cal 18:06 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
i personally think that if 1.8300 support holds (former resistance) on the cable we will see 1.8500;
this is for those of you that can handle holding on to a trade for 24 hrs.
i mentioned this around 5:00 a.m. this morning by the way

nyc jk 18:05 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
thanks Raden, gl

Bandung Dewan 18:04 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi
sorry, i'm still a beginner..... should learn much more....

Dublin Flip 17:57 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
cheers mate.
be lucky

Det tm 17:56 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 16:00 GMT January 8, 2004
Also looking for intermediate position entry to short CD (futures), tho I'm starting to think that its being priced in for the most part (?) Have'nt seen a primary dealers poll but bias has been for a cut on the wires & Dodge definately looses some of the credibility (transparency) he's built if he does'nt. Perhaps a quarter cut would only slow down CD appreciation. Would be glad to be corrected for my edification.

BTW, have you taken a look at Nortel (big chunk of TSE) lately? To see a real correction we need some US$ bullishness, or perhaps a little less of the bovine melody, IMO. Enjoy your posts. GL & GT.

xiangsu sue 17:55 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Raden,what is the figure of gbp medium term top?tia

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:52 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Bandung Dewan 17:48 GMT January 8, 2004
now you see that 1.8350 is not as top? I said you before since price still at 1.7700 that price will get 1.8380

Bandung Dewan 17:48 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi
gbp/usd, 1.8350 is break, going to 80?

beirut jb 17:48 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:55,

well my call on euro was first :

beirut jb 11:16 GMT January 8, 2004
Athens 10:25 GMT January 8, 2004

Hi mate,

Certainely u r not ignorant !!

IMHO eur/$ made already ~300 pip down, to go further south we need a daily close under 12545 , Although a sell signal trigered when yesterday lo was tooken asia session so
for me 2 options here:

1- sell here with a stop 12660

2- buy here with a stop 12540

I still prefere second option coz I think that we may test 129-130 level before The Correction,
But I will certainly change my vue and go short if we closed under 12545 today

GL GT

also I called short $/cad very early :

beirut jb 12:49 GMT January 8, 2004
$/cad is short again, sell any strengh but tight stop is recommended as many data and Trichet at 13:30 GMT

may be just good luck :)

anyway hope all traders r lucky like me today !!!!!

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:46 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd
now test low maximal only 1.8342 before get 1.8380

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:43 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
nyc.
nearest target at 1.2794 and final at 1.2844

nyc jk 17:36 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Raden - you are the EUR king today, good work. How high is this thing going to go?

beirut jb 17:34 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP , hi mate and happy new year:

:)

hope u r fine,

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:34 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
HK EL 17:16 GMT January 8, 2004
hope not to short gbp/usd because price will move up again from 1.8328 to get 1.8380-1.8404

nyc jk 17:27 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
thanks Flip, yeah seem to recall they weren't too impressed to say the least! cheers Bok.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:26 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
good eur/usd for buy now at 1.2767 because have given buy signal again toget higher

SA Bok 17:23 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip and NY jk - Great insights on trading interesting reads ...

Still cannot sell USD , must be the only one out there LOL ...

Maybe change view if 1.2830 breaks .. AIMVHO

Dallas GEP 17:19 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
EL I would wait a while to see if it goes to 1.8380

HK EL 17:16 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
should short GBP now?

HK EL 17:14 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
me too

Dallas GEP 17:13 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Closed GBP/USD long @ 1.8341

Bandung Dewan 17:12 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Ina- mr.co'z 14:34 GMT January 8, 2004
cable top at 1.8350 !!

slv sam 17:10 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
I shall close all my long euros which were accumulated until this morning at 1.28 and then start to accumulate again.GT

beijing road 17:09 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
we have to trade with "belief" only.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:09 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
for eur/usd. it's time to wake up again strong.

Dublin Flip 17:07 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
jk I think it had plenty to do with just plain exhaustion.
There were so many ozzie funds (like euro and asia)going to america it was just an avalanche domestic of money - though people like to blame punters. When the stock market topped the only selling was the banks exiting the busted companies hedge books. The RBA was actually buying at 65 (I think may have been lower like 62).Merrils sydney was pretty much a nostro and the very junior guy (not normally a dealer) gave the RBA through the bookies. The Broker came back and thoughtfully said "it's the rabbit how much do you want to do" so that the guy would say "10 bucks off ther offer" (as usual).
Instead the guy said "I need to sell a billion if that's ok".
The RBA went ballastic. It wasn't the done thing in those days. Merrils were politely told they wouldn't be allowed to deal out of Sydney office _LOL

beijing road 17:03 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
For medium term player, just raise stop to 1.2550 and 1.81 for eur and cable.DO not try to pick the top!

nyc jk 17:01 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
he was definitley involved, as were the other trend followers, but the big big seller was Tudor.

beijing road 17:00 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Actually prediction is usefulness at all.

Perth AS 16:59 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk wasnt it that turtle guy Richard.

Perth AS 16:58 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Notice many here calling the aus lower lately - due to excessive Longs does anyone see a retracement soon bearing that in mind RBA may not raise rates due to the pain of the farmers. Notice LondonJoe and another earlier today saying the rally was over - Current account data out tomorrow so will see if that has widened .

nyc jk 16:58 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
actually ab the RBA did a study on the Asian crisis induced part of the AUD selloff that they used to have posted on their website. If it's still there was a good read talked about how spec funds (one hedge fund in particular, the guy who Flip was talking about selling through Merrill mainly (not Soros)) destabilized the market by shorting about 10 yards of AUD. Of course the RBA takes credit for eventually breaking the fall but in reality profit taking and a shift in Fed policy with the LTCM debacle etc probably are the better reasons.

Dallas GEP 16:55 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Nice call Raden on Euro.

Dublin Flip 16:55 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
jk - yes and yes haha

anyway better hop as I'm getting a fisting by eur$-ouchskis

Manila Evan 16:54 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
1.2780 has to break first.

Dallas GEP 16:54 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Went long gbp/usd @ 1.8321

beirut jb 16:53 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
hi traders

here the test of 128 level,will close my long ahead it ,

still think that 129~130 level is the next target but not today likely

GL GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:53 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
beijing road.
you are right. I agree.

Houston AC 16:52 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
What can I say? Raden you're right again with Euro/USD!

London Paul_ex trader 16:52 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
The old bankers trust used to mess about with aussi and eventually the RBA asked them to 'leave the ausi' alone, they were making mkts too volatile!

Bandung Dewan 16:52 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi
c u 2morrow

beijing road 16:51 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
AtUALLY noboday will know what the market is going to do next. What you can do is waiting , trail the stop and keep going with the trend! I see the 1.28 will be taken out soon.LOL

sarasota jf 16:51 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
ab - gbp stops cleared time to go home - gt

Nassau QF 16:51 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Raden, thanks for all of your halp on this forum.
You have made very good calls.
Unfortunateley, I missed out on a few because I didn't think EUR/USD was going to go that high.

After Cable goes up to 1.8380 - 1.8405, do you see it dropping below 1.8250?

nyc jk 16:49 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Good timing Flip! I guess you worked for an Aussie bank back then as well by the sounds of it? And yes, the dealer at Merrills at the time, a man of dubious ethical standards to say the least.....

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:49 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
please wait at 1.8404 for sell to get big corection with stp only 1.8410

Manila Evan 16:48 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
1.8335 has to break first.

Dublin Flip 16:47 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
yes jk and jf there were certainly alot of factors that piled up one after another. I have to admit that taking a holiday that xmas eve was probably my best career move -LOL

beijing road 16:47 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
I really do not know why some people do not like strong trending market!LOL

Los Angeles 16:47 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Thats is what they say Mitchell

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:46 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd now get stp at 1.8325 that's eman go to 1.8380-1.8405 as a top area.

Tasmania 16:44 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Was the Current account deficit also to blame for the fall in the aud

Dublin Flip 16:44 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
There was an enormous amount of 68 down to 6Oc puts sold by Aussie exporters to pay for worthless +73c calls. One friday the ozz went 250 pips due to merrills NY giving every ozzie night desk 100 and went 50pips lower offered in the broker 10 secs later. As you can imagine the worm burnt a few bridges that night - but I'm sure he got a great bonus which has probably dissapeared up his nose long ago-LOL

sarasota jf 16:43 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 16:39 GMT January 8, 2004
pasminco - email the list is long and endless - options sold to exporters put them into cover they never could deliver - an ugly story agreed

nyc jk 16:41 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
ab - re AUD , I was working at an Aussie bank at the time and remember it fairly well (for the wrong reasons unfortunately lol). There were a lot of factors involved and it conincided with a turn in the $ overall, but there had been a big accumulation of AUD/JPY by Japanese from Samuri bond issues and also of AUD by spec accounts. AUD dropped about 2 cents one day from near the highs of around 0.82 and that was led by Soros' funds selling agressively to book profits on longs. Other speculators followed suit as the trend changed. Much later came the Asian crisis and AUD being used as a "proxy" for the speculators which drove it to the all time lows.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:40 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Bandung Dewan.
still not go home. only 15 minutes again I will off.
you rae welcome

Dublin Flip 16:39 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Ab the ozz was sold off from .8215 highs in dec 96.
As it turned out she "turned on a dime" as the yanks would say. The interbank market had been booking parity parties for 1997 but the opposite was the result.
The RBA was a very heavy seller of ozz though quite covert as they these days. After the first stages of an overly long ozz market, The initial driver was the annoucement that central banks (RBA including) would be selling off a major chink of their gold portfolios. That theme carried through and as it waned the asian currency crisis really kicked into gear.
Also what was going on was the Dotcom investment mirage.
At this stage upwards of a billion a week was going out of the country to be parlayed on the NASDAQ. What was also a major contrinuitor to the ultimate push towards 4775 were options exposure and the vast amount of USD debt issued by aussie exporters in the seventies (expecting it to be a bargain).
It fairly complicated but a perfect storm wiped out plenty of exporters and eventually most opted for a "no hedging policy" around 50c. as you can imagine that was a big signal that the worst was behind us-LOL

Tasmania 16:38 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
According to ANZ Bank chief economist Saul Eslake, a high Australian dollar makes big losers out of nearly all farmers and most miners.

"They depend on exports to the US or countries in Asia whose currencies are pegged to the US dollar," Mr Eslake said.

He estimated that for every US1 increase in the exchange rate, our rural sector loses $160 million
aus press

Bandung Dewan 16:37 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi,
r u still wake up mr?
gbp/usd is still hold to rise. makasih yang tadi....

Gen dk 16:37 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 16:37 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Raden, took yours, sell at 1.8310

Dallas GEP 16:36 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Raden, you generally are correct my friend but I have a tendancy to think previous high of 1.2751 will hold. But WTH do I know????

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:36 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd
try sell at 1.8317 stp 1.8325 for more 100 pips and sell again at 1.8380 with stp at 1.8405 for get more 200 pips

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:33 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd
be carefull at 1.8317 because can down sharply but if break until 1.8325 that's mean will go to 1.8380 to get bigger selling attack

Dallas GEP 16:32 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
I Repeat NOT NOW on swissy possies just posted.

hk ab 16:29 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
ok give up these aud and nzd.
just keep the sell aud/nzd as this pair runs pretty well withing the horizontal channel.

Dallas GEP 16:27 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
AB, I don't recall exactly the reason given for the Aussie and NZD selloff against the dollar. It seemed tho the Aussie sold off because there was a very heavy defense of an option at the time and it seemed there were 4 or 5 attempts to breach the level and all were failing immediately.

Dallas GEP 16:21 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
SWISSY Suggestions Menu:

within next 10-20 hours (NOT NOW):

NOTE: new highs/lows will suspend the below trade recommendations

buy usd/chf. 1.2305 / stop 1.2275
buy eur/chf 1.5660 / stop 1.5630
buy gbp/chf 1.2510 / stop 1.2470
sell chf/jpy 85.25 / stop 85.60
buy aud/chf .9510 / stop .9475
buy cad/chf .9595 / stop .9470

swiss weakness will confirm with 10-20 hours and coinside with US Terror Alert Warning Reduction

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:19 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
euro will go to 1.2773
please buy

SA Bok 16:16 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
4 Hour Candle closes and next one points higher may/chance to see 1.2800 tested ... Still stay out here ME ...IMVHO

Stockholm za 16:12 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
CHF/JPY >> update at the moment
8768-8718
8668-8652
8587/96
8521-8506
8456-8406
H/P ~ 8629 ~ Drag
Happy trades.......

hk ab 16:09 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
during 1997?

hk ab 16:08 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP, do you remember the reasons/excuses of the last long term aud, nzd sell off against USD?

Dallas GEP 16:03 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
SWISSY across the board appears to be offered, EUR/CHF USD/CHF longs could be VERY profitable in next 24-36 Hours.

Livingston nh 16:00 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Tomorrow's most important unemployment figure may be Canada's - if the new jobs figure is under 15,000 or the unemployment rate bounces back towards 7.7% the BoC may be inclined to cut rates on the 20th// GDP growth hasn't been too strong and earlier BoC tightening has not been unwound

rakesh hyderabad 15:58 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
well i agree with sunil

india sunil 15:56 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
any one with comeents on iraqi dinar
its almost double in its price of launch on 15 oct

hk ab 15:54 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, don't you find this eur/jpy familiar?

hk ab 15:46 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
don't forget bc recommendation on eur 1.29....

Miami OMIL 15:45 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
CB has the advantage GEP and Athens has the right idea that is why I am not in a hurry to top pick at all. (/;->

hk ab 15:44 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
nt. I think that's too heavy on aud/jpy.

As I pointed out earlier, japs are earning 33% in fx on aussie bonds and an unknown xx% on the yields......

Let's see what the big boys want to do tomorrow, many data out on aud.

Hong Kong nt 15:42 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- AUD sell oda at .7777, don't know if it may be filled tonight....

hk ab 15:41 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
thanks very much jf.

This scenario makes gb/jp funny.

hk ab 15:40 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
nt, I see that pair is making the double top in 4 hrs.
are you trading with it? I have two shorts on that.

Dallas GEP 15:38 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
OMIL Athens and Dolphin, good comments all!!! I too feel that SPECS for the most part are thinking BUY EURO on DIPS EVEN though that the daileys for some time now have been OVERBOUGHT. I DO think however that the bIG BOYS will be selling should the dailies continue to be over bought. Question is however can one TOP Pick this and time a short to coincide with the CB potential shorts???. SO as always it is an issue of timimg and at this point in time I don't have a clue!!! LOL I beleive MOST were thinking the EU would say soemthing that would make EURO short, OBVIOUSLY just the opposite happened JUST prior to the meeting (CB timimg is better than ours!!! LOL)

sarasota jf 15:37 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
ab - hi - some middle east selling in eur - european corps buying - euryen ended retracement 133.50 area - usdcad seen shorts est now with stops over 60 - gbp strong again more stops higher so cant short this censored thing - nthg else - ready to leave soon - gt

SA Bok 15:36 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Be it at my peril , I cannot sell USD up here anymore , each up leg needs more work (in Tallin's words) I think ...

Athens thanks for the heads up ... and everyone then was calling 1.2100 and higher ...

A correction to 1.2200 would be nice ...

GL all

Hong Kong nt 15:35 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
AUDCAD heading 1.0000/50...

hk ab 15:35 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
can't resist the tempt.

sell aud/nzd 1.1470 x 3

india sunil 15:34 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
india sunil 14:55 GMT January 8, 2004
hi all
i know most of u like raden opinions
but no one is ready to help him
why dont most of us become his subscribe members
this way we can help him and he can give us better service

hk ab 15:29 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
jpy now pegs with USD, so, take a holiday before real action seen next month.....

hk ab 15:27 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
buy eur/chf 1.5650

USA Biscuit Boy 15:25 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Buying some usd here for the long long term against euro. GL and GT all.

hk ab 15:20 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
mkt is just dissipating the money BOJ left on the line everyday.

It means whether the exporters want to sell more or the BOJ has more to buy.

Athens 15:19 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
FWIW some thoughts I wrote on my page after US closing last night and again this morning during the USD advance. Helpful or not I don't know but they try to approach market psychology.

"I can't preclude a strong EUR decline all the way given the extend of the uptrend, however I would like to repeat my comment of caution. Unless the market gets really scared, my guess is that for some time they will consider any lower levels as a EUR bargain buying opportunity. No big trend has ever turned in a sharp angle unless concerted CB action was seen.


Re my comment last night about strong trends and market taking time to digest a probable turn let me remind what happened last year when we first saw 1.1930. This top gave a correction to 1.1690 in the next couple of days, then on the third day the market climbed again to 1.1915 before falling back to 1.1630. It took more time to climb yet again to 1.1930 for a double top before the final decline began which finally led to 1.0760. I remember during the first two days I shorted around 1.18 after the first top and on the rebound from 1.1690, then I got under pressure seeing 1.1815 and finally cut at cost when 1.18 was seen again. Next you know what happened."

Good luck all, "see" you sometime again.

SA Bok 15:19 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:15 - Spot on MATE

Miami OMIL 15:15 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP good to see your comments on line again Happy New Year. Looks like eur/usd seems to have stopped the up flow again at around 1.2750 but 1.2725 fib retracement was broken so this means that the bearish movement has been stopped for the moment. Fib retracement from this move if 1.2750 holds should be 1.2677, 1.2654 and 1.2630. Now the support is at 1.2680 and new bottom at 1.2560 IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

HK Kevin 15:15 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
SA Bok 15:00 GMT, it's called "the dead cat bounce".

Gruppo11 Lugano (Switzerland) 15:14 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
eur chf already broker for 1.5640 at least
gbp chf signal below 2.2500

Eilat Dolphin 15:14 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ The FX world was worried Trichet would be Eurominus because of the levels and speed. He was not. The Fxes are reassured and trhe E should not correct abruptly - if at all - below the 1.27 level before US numbers tomorrow.

Nassau QF 15:14 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
India Sunil... subscribe where?
I would like Raden to benefit from his work.
He has been very accurate and deserves to be paid for it but I've never noticed advertisements from him to subscribe.

Is he involved with the GenDK signals?

hk ab 15:14 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Time to tell the truth.

jf, any feeding for today? TIA!

Gruppo11 Lugano (Switzerland) 15:12 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Possible correction now in eur chf and gbp chf

hk ab 15:11 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
place order buy eur/chf 1.5650 and then 1.5635.

hk ab 15:09 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
wow, what a move,

grabbed the eur profit on trail.

BOJ messed up the pic. again.

sold nz .6730, big hoax.

SA Bok 15:09 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
india sunil 14:55 - Good point, but fact of life everybody loves FREE advise .... Its upto Raden to speak to GV and be like Qindex and have a home page with info and get people here to pay .. His Call ...

manchester alf 15:09 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Point taken India.
How do we contact him...Through Jay?

Bris RR 15:03 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
A point of interest Trichet did not use his usual mantra of preferring ...strong and stable eur..

SA Bok 15:00 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Just what could be a heads up , look at 4 hour charts on EURUSD , this sharp move up does not seems to alter bearish MACD , if that can break below the line then maybe this is the last bash up ... AIMVHO .... GL all

india sunil 14:55 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
hi all
i know most of u like raden opinions
but no one is ready to help him
why dont most of us become his subscribe members
this way we can help him and he can give us better service

Dallas GEP 14:48 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Hello Friends. If one were to watch USD/CAD and assume it is still a leading indicator then quite possible that Eur/USD will SHORT back dowm PRIOR to seeing it's most recent high of 1.2751. HOWEVER this is dangerous, VERY dangeorus/

jkt-aye 14:42 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
gbp --- riding it from 1.8139 to 1.8214 ... then turn my position at 1.8239 but being kicked out at 1.8318.
... what a wonderful life, isn't it ?

Villers/Mer Max 14:39 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL 14:24 GMT January 8, 2004

Cool thought Omil !

HK EL 14:39 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Thanks you raden you make me win a lot!

cork g 14:35 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Anybody has any opion on Eur/Gbp, it broke the down trendline on 1hour chart.

Ina- mr.co'z 14:34 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
cable top at 1.8350 !!

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:25 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
brb

Miami OMIL 14:24 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
I had a thought on my mind about forex so please excuse me for taking up space. Congratulations to those who did well and for those who did not do well this comes to mind. I look at my charts with the ups and downs of prices it reminds me of life, sometimes good, sometimes bad. Remember the idea is to survive another day to be there for the good times IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Moscow Hawk 14:17 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Well AUD/USD has just tested 0.7750-70 and EUR/USD is trading inside first zone 1.2700-50 I indicated this morning and 50 gave first small rebound.

I want to remind my yesterday post
�...I think market needs more time with intraday swings and routine range trading to make market participants disoriented and overall picture not so clear before the major move and probably major reversal��

So do not be fouled by wild swings and overemotional about fast movements.

HK Kevin 14:16 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
So far 1.2740 has capped the upside of EUR. 1.2680 has to hold for assualt of 1.2780. I am short from 1.2738 with tight stop.

London Paul_ex trader 14:16 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
never apologise for taking profit, but still kicking myself when it's a big figure higher 3 minutes later! (still better than a big figure lower i guess)!

Hang on tight everyone!

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:14 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Bandung Dewan 14:09 GMT January 8, 2004
LOL. you must know my style view. if like that I invite you thinking only buy and only wait good level.

van Gecko 14:13 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
short knee jerk bursts are never sustainable.. imo it's better to cash your 'unexpected' pips before they are all h'issed into the wind..
cheerios

Saihat 14:12 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
i asume news let $ down

nyc tony 14:11 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
trailed a stop at 1.2920 for $/cad last nite (which seems like a month ago! lol) now reloaded on long $/cad at 1.2795.

Livingston nh 14:10 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
The Fed has been slowing money supply growth from near double digit growth to flat to negative in the current quarter - this is significant in light of the rise in the Energy import costs this year - at current trends (10 months) the total energy imports should exceed 2002 by nearly 40 bio (+36%) but the total M1 growth this year will be only about 75 bio (the import cost increase of 40 bio exceeds the entire currency component increase of M1) - for Q4 this disparity is even greater because a total expenditure of 36 bio for energy imports is not being funded by the Fed (M1 is flat and M2 is shrinking by 2.5% in Q4)// This is unlike earlier Fed responses to energy price rises and may be the reason Fed speakers have emphasized low inflation and no rate moves

IMHO -Tomorrow's job growth should be lower than consensus unless the manufacturing and insurance/finance sectors are strong (my expectation is +72k) - If you follow US weekly claims figs keep in mind the Continuing Claims number should begin to shrink quickly in the next few weeks because the Extended benefits program was not extended by Congress - if this continuing claims continues to rise despite this then the new jobs growth figs for next month should be bad

Bandung Dewan 14:09 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:58 GMT January 8, 2004
gbp/usd now give me information will finish number 1.8380,
who long will it take?

SA Bok 14:09 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Well Got to love those CB's etc .. We Want orderly markets .. opps my long position is in trouble .. okay easy .. make statement .. Yes Yes back in the Black ... LOL

GL al

ICT ML 14:08 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
this has look to me of BOJ intervening crosses maybe?.....chf, gbp, euro all sky rocket intervention style against the yen.....?

beijing road 14:07 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
In a major usd bear market, better trade with usd sell signal and forget usd buy signal. Keep going with the major trend!!!!!!!!!!!!

dc fxq 14:07 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
London Paul_ex trader 14:02 GMT

More like insanity!

Tallinn viies 14:06 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
what a day ;)
thnks god I was able to be on the right side of the road :)

beirut jb 14:05 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
rising my stop again on long eur/$ , likely 12818 to be tested again, 129~130 level next target,
eur has to break 12756 first

closed my short $/cad ahead 127.5 wich is a weekly support

sorry Athen but still with u that The Correction didnt happen yet

GL GT

Tallinn viies 14:04 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Isle of Wight DHE 14:02 - soon.
latest in february

Isle of Wight DHE 14:02 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
does anyone have any strong conviction of when $yen may start to move again?

London Paul_ex trader 14:02 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
unbeleivable! I bought eur/yen at 133.49 and thought I was being clever selling at 134.08. This is just amazing!

Geneva 14:01 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
I belive we will see a election year with a stocks market crash. the next...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:00 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
euro will finish at 1.2844

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:58 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd now give me information will finish number 1.8380,

beijing road 13:58 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
1.28 will be seen quite soon, within 24hours?

Eilat Dolphin 13:57 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Trichet was clear enough. The problem is volatility, not the flow. Stop rowing, enjoy the landscape and keep on the lookout for a waterfall here and there.

prague mark 13:55 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:53 GMT
what about beast

Bandung Dewan 13:54 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi
gbp/usd, what next?
u're good......

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:53 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd will give pullback reaction(sharply) from 1.2713?
you can sell there with stp at 1.2720 only. tight stp

beijing road 13:52 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
If you are holding usd short position, just raise stop to today' high or low and keep going with the trend!GL

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:39 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
now is rest time for gbp buyers emotion. exactly 1.8265. top

Vilnius george 13:38 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
The initial headlines from the ECB shows that Market News hit the nail on the head. No shift in bias from the ECB as Trichet calls rates appropriate. HE does acknowledge the strong EUR will weigh on the recovery but that recovery remain on track.

GVI john 13:37 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Also on CNBC World

beirut jb 13:35 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
rising my stop on long eur/$ and lowering my stop on short$/cad

127 to watch here and 12836 to watch also

GVI john 13:33 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
ECB Press conference underway Access via bloomberg.com Television. UK feed.

HK Kevin 13:33 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR resistance at 1.2680, if clearly broken will test 1.2730 and max 1.2780.

GVI john 13:32 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Weekly Jobless +14K to 353K about as expected.

Mtl JP 13:27 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
US #s release:
13:30GMT Initial Claims concesus expt'n: 345K vs last: 339K

Vilnius george 13:27 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Market News International, quoting unnamed senior ECB sources, says
that the CB is unwilling to take any action on the EUR at present. Jawboning
without a policy response is ineffective, the source said. Intervention would be
ineffective as well, without US participation, and there is no evidence that the
US is ready to intervene, according to the report.
We should know the fate of EUR/USD by the end of this week. If the market does
not make a new high in the wake of Snow staying essentially mum on dollar
weakness and if the ECB does nothing but try and downplay the significance of
the EUR rise, than the rally may be coming to a medium-term end.

beijing road 13:25 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Guys, It is time to sell usd again!

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:25 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi: now gbp/usd give me information to get 1.8265

Tallinn viies 13:24 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
left position @1,2656
cu,

Bandung Dewan 13:24 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi
Thx,
I can cross my position

beijing road 13:23 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
USD downside movement resumes.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:19 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
hk lacer 13:17 GMT January 8, 2004
of course.

hk lacer 13:17 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
hi raden....just your crystal view.... in your own opinion... can euro still break new hi's today...

Adelaide albbar 13:16 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mass
where do you see short term target for cad short, 1.2820 or below 2800? Thanks

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:15 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
resting time gbp/usd at 1.8185 was gone. it's time to wake up again

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:11 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd will up to get 1.8209 , you can buy now at 1.8185

Moscow Hawk 13:07 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
While AUD/USD manages to hold above 0.7650 the new highs is in sight. Move below will open 0.7580-10 for a test. But currently it looks that aussie could test 0.7750-75.

Good luck

GVI john 12:50 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
ECB unchanged

FFT 12:50 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
ECB unchanged as expected

beirut jb 12:49 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
$/cad is short again, sell any strengh but tight stop is recommended as many data and Trichet at 13:30 GMT

Vilnius george 12:45 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Thess/nk 2004 nk 12:07
It was supouse to be best wishes for this year. anyway i hope you will have a nice year , mate
Lithuania

bdg zilfallon 12:37 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
yupe... agree with that...

Tallinn viies 12:34 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
yebediyeeeee...
was able to shop euros at 1,2568. tnks. planning to sell those at 1,2655. within next 15 minutes hopefully.

bascially what is going on right now, is understanding that 38,2% retracement level held and as Trichet will definatelly not ruin the euro party YET, everyone buying big time.
imo

Gen dk 12:33 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Miami OMIL 12:32 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Raden Happy New Year may it bring your dreams to reality. Patience is the key here good calls. (/;->

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:27 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd rest at 1.8185 for a while.

Adelaide albbar 12:27 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi
That was excellent, much appreciated!

GVI john 12:26 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
This report serves as the basis for discussions twice daily on GVI. These comments are the personal opinions of the author and may not be suitable for trading purposes. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2635�$/yen 106.15
DJIA -3 pts� 10-yr 4.28%, +4 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI�s �Market Snapshot�:
CLICK HERE
It�s scary when a market becomes predictable because it never remains that way for very long. Today�s ECB decision at 12:45 GMT is almost universally seen to be no change in rates, but caution ahead of the decision has triggered position squaring in the heavily oversold dollar. Of greater interest will be the 13:30 GMT press conference by new ECB President Trichet. He certainly will comment extensively on the euro. This press conference is usually available via the Bloomberg website under Bloomberg Television. Use the U.K. feed. The ECB recently has been less concerned about the euro than European politicians and it is the ECB that calls the shots on forex policy. In the U.S. that is the domain of the Treasury Secretary, not the Fed.

No policy changes by the Bank of England were as expected today. Extensive meeting minutes will be released in two weeks time.

Another key focus today is the U.S. Weekly Jobless Figures at 13:30 GMT. Street estimates are for a level of about 350,000 in the week, up from 339,000 in the week prior. Any level below or at 350K would be constructive for the current employment picture. On Friday, the December employment report is due. Jobs are seen rising about 150,000 in the month after only +57,000 in November. Be sure to watch the previous data as they are often subject to substantial revisions.

CALENDAR:
THURSDAY JANUARY 8, 2004
12:45 GMT- ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision
13:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
15:00 GMT- US- Nov Wholesale Inventories
20:00 GMT- US- Nov Consumer Credit

FRIDAY, JANUARY 9, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN- November Leading Indicators
00:30 GMT- AUS- Trade vs. �A$1.648 mln
07:00 GMT- GER- Trade: vs. +EUR10.8 bln in Oct
07:00 GMT- GER- Current Account: vs. +EUR6.3 bln in Oct
09:30 GMT- UK- Nov Trade: vs. �GBP4.4 bln in Oct
11:00 GMT- GER- Nov preliminary Industrial Orders: vs. +2.3% in Oct
12:00 GMT- CDA- December Employment:
Rate vs. 7.5%
Jobs vs. +54,100
13:30 GMT- US- Dec Employment:
Non-Farm Payrolls: vs. +57,000 in Nov, see +150,000
Unemployment Rate: vs. 5.9% in Nov, see 5.9%

chicago cal 12:26 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
plan to cover cable longs around 1.8220 then plan to re-buy above 1.8300 for 1.8500

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:23 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Bandung Dewan
you have get nice profit gbp/usd at 1.8185. LOL

Miami OMIL 12:23 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Now eur/usd is making a move with fib retracement on 1hr charts at 1.2625, 1.2641 and 1.2655 with resistance at the moment at 1.2680 IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:21 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd will up to 1.2676
corection was finished.

Thess/nk 2004 nk 12:07 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Vilnius george 11:08 GMT January 8


Patient...Market is always here..

Where u come frome u said?


nk

Cairo MDR 12:06 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
I longed eur @ 2580 targeting 2615 hopefully before ECB press conference as it may have some implicatios that euro rally is not goood for the eurpean recovery

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:05 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Bandung Dewan 12:02 GMT January 8, 2004
I was old members "LAGA" since 1992 when still study at ganesha. mad beattle is ok. LOL

bdg zilfallon 12:03 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
unchanged on BOE rates... no comments at all... but will prepare for rate hike on feb

GL/GT

GVI john 12:02 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
BOE unchanged. No statement as expected

Slovenia janez 12:02 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
unchanged

Bandung Dewan 12:02 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
zilfallon bdg
haha, thx......
barcode/laga is calling......

bdg zilfallon 12:00 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
danny ye ?

kekeke... GL/GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:00 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Bandung Dewan 11:57 GMT January 8, 2004
LOL.
not only 1.8155 but 1.8185.

Bandung Dewan 11:57 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi
I'm not him... I just thought that he must be popular.... and maybe he is "gelo"..... ha ha. He is a good one.
will gbp/usd touch 1.8155 in 1-2 hours? thx

GVI john 11:50 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
BOE @ 12:00 GMT-- No change expected.

Slovenia janez 11:50 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
hello usd chf very interesting if they brake big support line 1.25 they can go much higher

Gen dk 11:50 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

zilfallon bdg 11:49 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
wakakka... welcome dewan... GL/GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:49 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd give me information will up higher than 1.8155 but at 1.8185-99

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:43 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Bandung Dewan.
LOL...
"gelo"

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:42 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd only make confirmation to make higher.
will go up so far?

Bandung Dewan 11:41 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi
I'm from Panca, and u should have known mr_co_z

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:37 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Bandung Dewan.
where are you from?. halim, ibiz or golden or panca or VIP ? others ?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:35 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Bandung Dewan 11:26 GMT January 8, 2004
about usd/jpy I still believe to move down.
still no energy for up except by intervention

tasmania 11:30 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
German Economy Minister Clement has continued to voice his concern over euro
strength. Today, he says that it is a problem for European economic development,
Reuters

Cairo MDR 11:30 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
If ECB doesn't say anything on currencies today, we will see a dollar dive towards 2800

Bandung Dewan 11:26 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi
I'm new here, what happen with usd/yen? will it going up this night?

beirut jb 11:19 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Athen: could u share ur vue on Gold if any please????

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:19 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
three numbers of gbp/usd
1.8155 ; 1.8185 ; 1.8199
safety exit is at 1.8155.
now price move higher than 1.8135

beirut jb 11:16 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Athens 10:25 GMT January 8, 2004

Hi mate,

Certainely u r not ignorant !!

IMHO eur/$ made already ~300 pip down, to go further south we need a daily close under 12545 , Although a sell signal trigered when yesterday lo was tooken asia session so
for me 2 options here:

1- sell here with a stop 12660

2- buy here with a stop 12540

I still prefere second option coz I think that we may test 129-130 level before The Correction,
But I will certainly change my vue and go short if we closed under 12545 today

GL GT

Athens 11:15 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
GER ad 11:11 you surely saved your $/jpy broker's day.

Moscow Hawk 11:12 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
I think watching was the best tactics during this EUR/USD run if had no long position. There were only few chances to make money shorting the euro during the corrections from 1.23 to 1.2100-30 and from 1.2440 to 1.2340 not considering the last days. But corrections were short lived and many players failed to pick the top from 1.24.

Now we have got more clear picture and touching the opportunities I think the opportunities always exist but need to follow the right bias to use them. And of course not in a hurry.

GER ad 11:11 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY,
Took profit on long (106.16) at 106.17 this day is save. LOL!

Vilnius george 11:08 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Thess/nk 2003 nk
Have a hudge profit for this year!
gl

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:07 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
to gbp/usd players
be careful ya at 1.8105..
it's time to wake up (IMO). too risky if we hope down lower again. finish..

Athens 11:06 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
NK, thanks for confirming that this forum has two ignorants, me and you...

Melbourne Qindex 11:05 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:05 GMT January 8, 2004
EUR/CHF : The normal trading range of my daily cycle is 1.5668 - 1.5722.

... // 1.5668 - 1.5686 - 1.5704 - 1.5722 // ...

Thess/nk 2003 nk 10:47 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Athens 10:36 GMT January 8

Many times said to myself the same....lol

This time i agree with u to do something to slow down Euro..
But still expecting 1.2888 to print B4 further Sell off..

100% im idiot still watching..lol

nk

chicago cal 10:47 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
this is a reasonable time to buy small amounts of cable with a tight s/l below 1.8100

Sydney 10:39 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 14:53 GMT January 6, 2004
usd/chf rarely moves 50 figures over the l/m/t without some sort of substantial retracement in between.. on each of the last two occasions when it touched the 1.23/1.22's in the early 90's the little dollar rallied 30+ figures up to the 1.50's before another m/t multiple figure dump..
perhaps a 'double crossed slam dung act' for the raging conti are not that far away?

Thank you Gecko! you gave me the confidence to buy down at 1.2280

Gen dk 10:37 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Athens 10:36 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
NK, yes, and happy new year to you.

Melbourne Qindex 10:34 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:59 GMT January 4, 2004
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The critical point of my weekly cycle is located at 1.7924. The lower barrier is expected at 1.7739 // 1.7831 and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.8109 // 1.8202. If the market retreats and hits 1.7461, a negative note will be triggered in my system. The market rhythm is represented by 93 pips (k=0.00927) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.7831 - 1.8202. (Suggestion : Stop and reverse the long position if the market is trading below the lower barrier at 1.7739 // 1.7831).


Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.7461 ... 1.7739 // 1.7831, 1.7924, 1.8017, 1.8109 // 1.8202, 1.8295 ...


GBP/USD : Weekly Cycle Charts

Thess/nk 2004 nk 10:33 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..

Athens 10:25 GMT January 8

ingnorant=asxetos?...


nk

Alaska AK 10:27 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Thank you:)

Bratislava MB 10:26 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
it's 8:30 EST

Bratislava MB 10:26 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Alaska AK
I think is 13:30 GMT

Athens 10:25 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Maybe I am not such a big ignorant after all (perhaps only a small one):

"Athens 16:11 GMT January 6, 2004
I hear people calling this a USD correction and a bargain buying new USD selling opportunity. If a 50-60 pip dip today is a correction of an already huge trend then I am an FX ignorant."

At the time the market was coming off 1.28 and stalled for a while.

Moscow Hawk 10:22 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD gave up and I think the preferable tactic in EUR/USD for now is selling upticks. 1.2700-50 and 1.2790-40 are good selling areas if seen. Current picture points that upside in EUR/USD is almost exhausted and the bias changed. Mid term targets are 1.2300-50 and 1.20-21. But I hope they are not being reached in a straight line.

Good luck

Melbourne Qindex 10:18 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Use the weekly cycle analsis for reference today!

USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD & GBP/USD  Weekly Cycle Analyses . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 10:17 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : The market is still working on the upper barrier of my daily cycle at 1.2919 // 1.2949.

Melbourne Qindex 10:16 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 1.2512 - 1.2614 and the mid-point reference is 1.2563.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:15 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
HK EL 09:50 GMT January 8, 2004
aud/usd still no see down trend, still only test at 0.7638

Alaska AK 10:14 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
What time (EST)ECB is going to comment?

Melbourne Qindex 10:13 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP : Further analysis will be run if 0.6933 fails to hold. The next supporting point is 62 pips away at 0.6871 9the next quantised level).

Melbourne Qindex 10:11 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 10:10 GMT January 8, 2004
GBP/JPY : the current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle reference is 190.67 - 192.52.

Melbourne Qindex 10:08 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : the odds are good that the maket can overcome the upper barrier at 1.2457 // 1.2494.

Tasmaina 10:07 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
EU's Lamy is warning today that EU competitiveness could decline if EUR/USD continues to rise

Reuters

Melbourne Qindex 10:05 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : the maket is challenging supporting strength of 0.7646 // 0.7671.

HK EL 10:04 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Thanks both of you

Melbourne Qindex 10:03 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : It is trading below my daily cycle normal trading range.

Tasmania 10:02 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
HK EL could say the same about the Aud

Edi Geo 10:01 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
coz their economist/economic team expect it...not the whole market

Melbourne Qindex 10:01 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is going to test the supporting strength of 1.8075 // 1.8106.

HK EL 10:00 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
If it's the case why cable is still falling LOL

Melbourne Qindex 10:00 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : the current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle reference is 132.43 - 133.97.

Tasmania 09:57 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
JP Morgan expects the BoE to raise rates by 25bp to 4% at 1200 GMT

HK EL 09:50 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Raden wht about your view on AUD?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:45 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
HK EL 09:40 GMT January 8, 2004
raden_masandi: gbp/usd buy more at 1.8103 with stop loss at 1.8095 and stop loss at 1.8107 be changed at 1.8090, price will up so far.

raden_masandi: but that if posible to get 1.8103, but iam pesimis because 1.8113 is buyers emotion level.

Chambery FR JFB 09:42 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF 09:12 GMT January 8, 2004
Hi, am long too since 1.2447, tgt: 1.2600 imvho :-)
GL GT

HK EL 09:40 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Raden
when the extreme bottom blow, what is the next bottom for GBP?

sarasota jf 09:40 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
i think if the mof/boj were not so stubborn eurusd wud not have corrected so deeply - euryen touched 133.50 target so some consolidation expected - if usdyen would trade more freely that would help eurusd stablise and drift higher - again more eurgbp selling around so expecting it to keep creeping lower - gt

Miami OMIL 09:26 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Stops were taken out that is why the 1.2570 bottom is out now. The support lies on the channel line (1.2550-45) as ML suggested earlier. (/;->

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:24 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi: now about gbp, 1.8113 is ideal bottom, buy now 1.8116 with stp at 1.8107 and eur/usd there is possibility bottom at 1.2550-45 you can buy there with stp at 1.2530 bid

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:22 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Jakarta Onk,
my forcast system price have be finished at extreme bottom at 1.8113. good for buy again with stp at 1.8107 bid

Jakarta Onk 09:18 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Raden, any other views for now?
thanks

Nassau QF 09:12 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF?

They have the following posted on Forex News:
--------------
USDCHF

The pair climbed higher, rising to a one-week high at 1.2470. Resistance is seen at 1.2560, followed by 1.26 and 1.2650. Additional gains will find subsequent ceilings at 1.2740, followed by 1.28 and 1.2870. Meanwhile, losses will find support starting at 1.24, backed by 1.2340 and 1.23. Subsequent floors are eyed at 1.2240, backed by 1.22 and 1.2130.
---------------
I put in a buy order at 1.2456
Any comments from others about where it will go?

beijing road 09:11 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
From 8h chat, i saw lower high and lower low for EUR/USD.

brisbane sunstate 09:09 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Vilnius george 09:07
ECB press conference 13.30 GMT

ICT ML 09:08 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
some daily studies on cable...........fib projections of this move targets were 1.7465, 1.7685, 1.7860, 1.8035, 1.8250, and then ultimate MM tgt is 1.8610. We stopped @ the 176.4% tgt, and would be believable to see 1.8035 again, or better 1.7860, which would put it on the channel that it broke out of to test support of it.....just a thought....could also just take off like a bat out of helll again straight up too.......

Vilnius george 09:07 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
When Jean-Claude Trichet, will have the press
conference after the policy board meeting today. I was searching , but without any results. thanks

SA Bok 09:03 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
No Guys the BOJ has really effectlively Fixed the USDJPY for now 106.10 to 106.30 the band ... LOL hahahahaha

We all know the market (specs) are short wanting real flows from repatriation to book them the profits ... maybe a squeeze on shorts ...

GL and GT

slv sam 08:55 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
nyc beyonding_destiny 08:49 /
what you mean by profit taking? $/y will be up?GT

nyc beyonding_destiny 08:49 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
$yen has been stuck in narrow range of 106.2-106.3. Profit taking will be seen in US session. Any comments it, any news from BoJ? thanx

Tasmania 08:42 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD daily Stochastics are highly overbought, negative and falling and daily momentum is calling for a move lower. Now trading at 1.2593, a corrective selloff toward 1.2530 is favored. Close below here has potential for a test of 1.2400. HSBC.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:41 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Jakarta Onk,
now gbp/usd will get high at 1.8199 from 1.8130 area

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:37 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
to get 1.2637 with stop loss at 1.2584 bid. (objectie stp)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:34 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
HK EL 08:27 GMT January 8, 2004
and jakarta Onk

about GBP/usd when at 1.8141
1.8130 is ideal bottom

HK EL 08:31 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
I thought frodo cannot destroy the one ring without Golum

slv sam 08:31 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
i said i am returning to my old strategy..this means just BOD every 50 pips or so and accumulating for big profits later on..NO STOP LOSS!GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:29 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd,
now at 1.2603 is ideal for bottom.
hope not wrong way.

ICT ML 08:29 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Also have eyes on GBP/JPY...in hourly decending triangle, base 192.40...........just got a iffy sell sig that says it breaks the base and heads to 191.75 then maybe 191.00 support........fwiw only.....MOF/BOJ spoiled our last party...:-<

Jakarta Onk 08:28 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Raden,
What about GBP bottom?
when to buy?
thanks

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:28 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Jakarta Onk,
after 1.2625 price move down idealy to 1.2609 and then move up to get 1.2637

HK EL 08:27 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
what about your view on gbp raden?

ICT ML 08:24 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
sam.......what level would you stop the BOD strategy? I plan to buy into 1.2470 area heavy if seen...below that I don't know.....You?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:23 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd when at 1.2605
in my system give me information price will up to 1.2637
buy now at bottom 1.2605 to get 1.2637 with stp at 1.2595 bid.

slv sam 08:21 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
I am buying here at 1.2605 . Now accumulating, already bought at 1.2670 yesterday..I am returning to my old strategy to accumulate euro on dips at about 50 pips or so...GT.

Jakarta Onk 08:20 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Raden,
what next after 1.2625?
Thx

beirut jb 08:19 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning trader,

eur/$ should close under 12545 daily basis to go south further,

to resume the uptrend first step should be to reverse actual hourly bearish behavior wich need a close above 12630 on hourly chart, 127 should be taken in next step to test recent hi

Intraday trade today should be only SCALPING since there r so many events and data starting 11 am GMT


GL GT to all

HK RF@ 08:18 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
A break for Gold below 418 has a good chance(no promises) to produce a weekly reversal (down).

HK RF@ 08:07 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
From all collection of opinions+ calcu., one may also expect 1.2520 to be on the menu today.

hk ab 0.88 08:06 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
will exit if it can't penetrate the 3rd time of Q lower barrier. Trail it.

hk lacer 08:02 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
thanks.... god bless and good luck... happy trades all the year round...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:00 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd when at 1.2595
price will up to 1.2625
buy here now with stp at 1.2584

hk lacer 07:59 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
hi raden..... greetings.... just wanted to know your insights on euro?

Indonesia Solo Raden_Masandi 07:57 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
hello !!

MONACO OGA 07:57 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 08/01
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (Currently 1.2600), 140 pips lower than yesterday's opening. The US currency is experiencing its first technical retracement against the EUR (200 pips) for the first time since November 2003. Today the market will focus on the ECB rate decision, with the EUR appreciation fueling some 0.25 bp cut expectations. Also important will be ECB's Trichet speech concerning his opinion of the european currency and the 1,30 level of pain already mentionned by many european bankers. US treasury secretary Snow's comment yesterday was a nonevent, with his reaffirmation of a strong USD policy. European economic confidence in December was down yesterday and maybe the market is refocusing on economic data.We believe we have not seen the end of the uptrend yet, and a long term target now appears around 1,3500. For the short term trading, we are now expecting a test of 1,2450 to build long positions.

Data out today:
GER unemployment rate Dec expected 9.3% 08.55 GMT
EMU unemployment ratee Dec expected 8.8% 11.00 GMT
UK BOE rate decision expected unchanged at 3.75% 12.00 GMT
EMU ECB rate decision expected unchanged at 2% 13.00 GMT
ECB press conference 13.30 GMT
US initial jobless claims expected 345K 13.30 GMT

Gold around 420 , with WTI February at 33,54.

***JPY***
Usd/Jpy (currently 106,15), the BOJ/MOF is still there with once again yesterday some technical problems in EBS trading system causing a gap to 105,90 before official bids send it back above 106,15. This 106 level appears the last support zone before 100. The USD is still under pressure, and we believe the japanese authorities are gearing up for more intervention tools and are getting ready to defend the highly psychological 100 level later this year (not seen since Nov 1995). For today, short positions around 106,40 appear the most logical strategy.EUR/JPY (133,70) is looking to break its trading range on the downside. Big support appearing now at 132,50 while resistance around 134,50.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1.8160) consolidating and forming a base above 1,8120. The pair seems resilient to go lower despite EUR/USD retracement. Most likely 2004 will see some trading around 1,85-1,90. Support for the day at 1,8120, next one at 1,8060 with temporary resistance at 1,8270 before 1,8400.
EUR/GBP (0.6930), reached our target at 0,6940. A break of this support and an extension to 0,6810 is possible for the coming trading sessions.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Miami OMIL 07:57 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Good to hear that you are all right ML. It is good to compare notes with you looks like we are on the same page. (/;-> GL GT

ICT ML 07:50 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Hi Omil...yes, doing fine now....

I have a hourly down channel too...top is 1.2640 bottom is 1.2550 right now....1.2550 is a 50% fib projection target if it fails to retrace above 1.2640 ....and also, I hae big asss hourly up channel support that was broken @ 1.2640 now, should be resistance ...looking @ my stoch tricks, hourly has maybe one more small turn down before the cycle is over, but that could get us to 1.2470 area.......so don't know yet.

will get interesting though if 1.2425-75 fails to hold a real retracement..........

take care.

nyc sa 07:49 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Banque Paris-Bas : "Euro is consolidating its upmove" ,not a correction just yet .

nyc sa 07:47 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Forbes: "twin deficit increases risk of disorderly drop of the dollar which could hit US and global economy"

Riga Nick 07:46 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Good mng.
It seems to me EUR is basing some ground for up-movement. May be better will be to say, EUR loosing down pressure. Some ideas about it?

hk ab 0.88 07:43 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
hahaha, talking down USD..... Good then "sell the news"...

gl, I am holding only eur short from 1.2692 from last night.

nyc sa 07:41 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Forbes news : dollar might come under pressure following IMF comments .

hk ab 0.88 07:40 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
seems japs are busy in repatriating the crosses.

Think about the profit they made on aussie bonds.....

buying aussie bonds when aud/jpy at around 60 and now it's 80....

Discounting the yields profit, the fx profits is already 33%!

Miami OMIL 07:40 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
How are you ML hope you are feeling better from the flu. On the 1hr chart a channel has begun on the eur/usd right now toping out at 1.2610-30. The daily chart is also showing some hints of a correction coming up. If the trend on the 1hr chart continues then we can see the long awaited correction of the dollar. I am getting ahead of the situation but I thought I come up with some projected figures for a correction if this was the beginning (which I have no signal to confirm it). Last phase move from November has fib retracement 1.2270,1.2103 and 1.1936. The fib retracement move from September would be 1.2022, 1.1782 and 1.1542. Mid-term channel has this move topped at 1.2825-50 before a correction IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

HK RF@ 07:33 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Nothing new, but can always read one more time.

I.M.F. Says Rise in U.S. Debts Is Threat to World's Economy

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/08/business/08FUND.html?hp

"Is the U.S. fiscal position unique? Probably not," said Kermit L. Schoenholtz, chief economist at Citigroup Global Markets. Japan's budget deficit is much higher than that of the United States, Mr. Schoenholtz said, and those of Germany and France are climbing rapidly.

ICT ML 07:31 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
I have 1.2470 euro/Usd as the next buying opp...thinking is this, 1.2640 was break out and should have supported. That support gone, than the trend lines 1.2580 area or so need to hold...so far so good. But I see a test of 1.2640 again, than it heads down to 1.2470 area, previous breaout and fib area and daily ema20...


so lets see what London thinks

Stockholm za 07:25 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
CHF/JPY >> today
8733-8683
8633-8617
8552
8486-8471
8421-8371
happy trades....

LAX-LGB SNP 07:24 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
pre-EZ views
as long as 1.2596 holds, EURUSD will re-arm and aim past 1.28 + kagi is bullish :-)
GBPUSD needs to close above 1.8205 before bids can send price higher
1.2406/1.2443 zone needs to give way before USDCHF can go lower
if AUDUSD clears the 0.7670/0.7690 zone in a few hours then old high of 0.7728 is just another line in the sand

minors look mixed so prefer to avoid for now ... TTYL TC

Miami OMIL 07:05 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
One more thing on eur/usd I forgot to mention the last phase movement fib retracement is 1.2607, 1.2616 and 1.2625. (/;->

hk ab 0.88 07:00 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
need to say hello to BOJ again....


think some fishes will expect a bounce at 105.90 and place order at 105.95 to buy......

I would like to be sidelined....

hk ab 0.88 06:49 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
still can try a buy of eurchf a bit lower.

hk ab 0.88 06:46 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
bc, from your view on eur over 1.15 is a gift..........

I think this more than 1000 pips is a very good Lunar new year gift for you ;)

GT.

Miami OMIL 06:45 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone looks like the market decided to test the bottoms I stated earlier on eur/usd. The first bottom was tested while the second 1.2570-65 still holds. With stochs in over sold territory and turning the chances are for a bounce again. Fib retracements are 1.2670, 1.2700 and 1.2725. Resistance is located now at 1.2645 and 1.2700-1.2690. FWIW on the hour charts show that price movement has broken the 55-ma line at 1.2700 and acting as a resistance. It is to early to call this the very anticipated dollar correction but it is a good start IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

hk ab 0.88 06:39 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
For eur to correct properly, dlr/jpy cannot break the 106 otherwise, v. likely to see 1.3 before end of Q1.

hk ab 0.88 06:27 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
and no doubt that nzd move was erratic now.

And mkt like to respond this with a very fast counter move when no one is ready. Of course, the next m/t trend is another issue.

hk ab 0.88 06:25 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Sfx, No, they use nzd as vehicle.

And you can see the range of nzd was kept so nice.

The wonder is when eur dived hard this morning in Asian, nzd was bouncing up high...... same during the whole US session.

Singapore Sfx 06:20 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 06:17

How's that diff from selling nzdusd pls ?

hk ab 0.88 06:18 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
when eur shows a bounce, liquidate the eur/nzd sell first. and then reload later when eur being attack.

hk ab 0.88 06:17 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Strategy used: sell eur/nzd and buy eur/usd. until this correctin ends.

hk ab 0.88 06:10 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
nzd was hedged with the majors. All the majors show a move down vs usd except this.

Think most people are still selling USD hard but with a different approach.

Ldn 05:46 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Busy day on the option market later today.
courtsey of IFR.

AUD Large 0.7500 and 0.7530 option expiries at the NY
cut. Smaller 0.7250 expiries also.

EURO Very large 1.2500 and 1.2650 option expiries at
the NY cut. Smaller 1.2300, 1.2450, 1.2475 and 1.2700 expiries

DLR/YEN Large 104.75, 104.90, 105.00, 107.00 and 108.00-
strike option expiries at the NY cut. Smaller 106.00 and 107.15 expiries.

Tasmanai 05:38 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD overvalued when trade flows with China considered, says TD Securities chief strategist Stephen Koukoulas; notes Australian exports to China have shown no growth since start of 2002 despite strong China economic growth, showing Australian exporters suffering from strong AUD.Reuters news.

Melbourne Qindex 05:25 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is likely to find support around 1.2461. The mid-point reference of my weekly cycle quantised levels between 1.2409 - 1.2512.


Melbourne Qindex 06:19 GMT January 4, 2004
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of my weekly cycle frequency chart indicates that a strong pull-back is imminence. The lower barrier is expected at 1.2512 // 1.2614 and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.2818 // 1.2920. The market rhythm is represented by 102 pips (k=0.01021) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.2512 - 1.2920. (Suggestion : The odds are in favour of maintaining a short position if the market is trading below the lower barrier at 1.2512 // 1.2614).


Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.2205 ... 1.2409, 1.2512 // 1.2614, 1.2716, 1.2818 // 1.2920 ...


EUR/USD : Weekly Cycle Charts

pr 04:49 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Wednesday following the second Friday of the expiry month that day often produces a sharp price movement, usually against the trend ( front month )

Hong Kong nt 04:37 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 03:33 GMT January 8, 2004
Dead quiet Friday.

guess you're still in holiday mood...

LAX-LGB SNP 04:28 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
with reference to 18:04 GMT January 7, 2004

selling eurjpy below 134.8x = a cent now
selling eurgbp ahead of 0.6999/0.7008 = 2 quarters now
buying aud$ ahead of 0.768x closed @ breakeven
buying $chf over 1.233x = 1.5 cents now
selling gbp$ below 1.821x = couple of dimes so far
also selling eur$ below 1.27xx (missed upper entry @ 1.272x) = a cent

almo$$$t done for now ... will rethink when Eurozone wake$$$ up :-)

Hong Kong nt 02:34 GMT January 8, 2004
BoJ = Bank of Japan / Bunch of Jokers !!good one, haha :-)

chicago jack 04:08 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Raden masendi, do you still feel the euro will goto 1.2862 like you said before? What stops are you utilizing? TIA.

hk ab 0.88 03:41 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
bc, what do you think about a possible deflation in EZ and GB after Japs, HK, US(nearly if not weak USD policy)? in the coming two years?

ICT ML 03:36 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Man....new year resolution to trade in the trend direction has caused me to miss me 200 pips on $swiss alone already....LOL...

had good buy divergence signals @ 1.2250 to fade it and didn't take it, now look at it! Think it has broken out of daily falling wedge on up side now......guess I'll buy a test of the break out support if it comes.

hk ab 0.88 03:36 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Friends, think about why eur/jpy worth 13x.xx if the two economies varied so much. with the EZ one much sucker than the Japs.

hk ab 0.88 03:33 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Dead quiet Friday.

Noody, how's your side?

hk ab 0.88 03:13 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
nt, could you feel the avalanche game?

but I prefer to buy the reversal, safer.

hk ab 0.88 02:38 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
nt, jokes.

Hong Kong nt 02:34 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 23:27 GMT January 7, 2004
boj boj boj......

what does boj mean? best of jokes? :)

Gen dk 02:26 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

beijing road 02:11 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
GUYs, buy GBF/CHF at 2.26 is still a good play.

beijing road 02:11 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
GUYs, buy GBF/CHF at 2.26 is still a good play.

hk ab 0.88 01:58 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
river river river.......

hk ab 0.88 01:50 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy in collapse mode...repeating dlr/jpy in 2001 March....

Guys, play safe.

sf mike 01:30 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
This is the first time I've seen usdjpy on a flat line. Are they duking it out at this level or everybody stepped aside?

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:29 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
sorry for typo 105.68 should be 105.78

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:27 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
resistance for USD/JPY seen at 106.39-65-97 & 107.51

support at 105.68

i don't trade this pair directly because i am weary of it.

Melbourne Qindex 01:22 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : 106.22 is the critical point of my daily cycle.

Melbourne Qindex 01:22 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Once the market can overcome the resistance of my weekly cycle at 106.39, the upper barrier of my daily cycle at 106.53 // 106.83 will be challenged.

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:18 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
farmacia// i think the 192.32 level will hold well i have an order waiting to be placed at that level.

Melbourne Qindex 01:18 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Onc the market can overcome the resistance at 106.39 of my weekly cycle, the upper barrier of my dailycycle at 106.53 // 106.83 will be challenged.

Melbourne Qindex 01:13 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The mid-point reference of 1.2512 - 1.2614 is 1.2563.

Melbourne Qindex 01:11 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD & GBP/USD  Weekly Cycle Analyses . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 01:10 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Use my weekly cycle analysis for reference if the lower barrier fails to hold.

EUR/USD : Weekly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 00:55 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : the market is going to test the barrier at 1.2596 // 1.2620.

melbourne farmacia 00:48 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Rafe - Gbp/Jpy needs to bounce from this 192.59 level. The up direction will be mantained today if so with 194.93 being your target at some stage. If this level breaks for 192.13 i will run new numbers for you.

Melbourne Qindex 00:47 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Tasmania 00:46 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... It seems to flare up in the colder months - and you dont have a large chinese population , this is why Canada suffered. ( however Australia does somewhat)

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:44 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
thank god no sars cases came to caribbean region. and hope they don't either, bad blow to tourist based economies if that happens.

Tasmania 00:42 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... they are trying very hard problem is with flights travel now its tricky

Melbourne Qindex 00:37 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:34 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
sars virus rears it's ugly head again. they should try to contain it to china only hopefully they will succeed.

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:34 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
sars virus rears it's ugly head again. they should not try their best to contain it to china only.

Tasmania 00:32 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   

Three-man television team that went to Guangzhou to cover the mainland's first Sars case in seven months has been admitted to hospital after coming down with fevers,

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/thestandard/news_detail_frame.cfm?articleid=44511&intcatid=1

Melbourne Qindex 00:27 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment  . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

melbourne farmacia 00:26 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
Rafe - i'm looking for you.
But Gbp/Usd is heading for 1.8100 / 1.8085.

Tbilisi GT 00:22 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
do you think eurusd will fall below 2620?

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:20 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
farmacia// what do think GBP/JPy is gonna do tonite?

what do your fib projections tell you?

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:17 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
thank god for basic instincts! i waited for a few minutes more!

order @ 192.32 may long if price trades there.

ie.. if i am correct =-)

Melbourne Qindex 00:16 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:07 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
farmacia// you can check in about 5 minutes i sent you e-mail

my mailbox size is max 2mb

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:06 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
you can check in about 5 minutes i sent you e-mail

my mailbox size is max 2mb

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:03 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
farmacia// check the spelling of the way you type it out. let me e-mail you now and then you reply with the message.

GL

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:01 GMT January 8, 2004 Reply   
i haven't put in possie yet just as ready to put it in market shorts for a bit,.