Forex Forum Archive for 01/11/2004

Alicante RTN 23:56 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
I am not one to suggest to put oneself in front of a moving freight train, but there is significant t/l support for the usdchf today at 1.2150 level.

If this holds and generates a significant bounce, there might be at least a small'ish correction coming. If this level does not hold - or usdchf starts to erode said support - change teams and ride the usdchf lower for another easy 150 or 200 pips.

Nassau QF 23:41 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Well, I hope GBP/USD takes a dive to 1.83 before heading back up.

I took a short on it on Friday at 1.8430 and I've held it over the weekend.

syd 23:40 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
tasmania...

that analyst is dreaming.

whilst US asset markets remian well supported and calm, US authorities will do nothing to stop the dollar fall.

only if asset markets become dislocated will they step in.

a weakening dollar, without unpleasant side effects in other financial markets, is being actively sought by Snow, with acquiesence from the FED.

Tasmania 23:38 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF USD is reaching quite critical levels on the USD index.

Nassau QF 23:34 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Tasmanina, do you mean AUS or USD?

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:34 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Bs.As// the turtle is available for free by the original turtles. there is some guy that claims to be one of the original turtles selling the alleged system.


originalturtles.org

Tasmanai 23:33 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Authorities may be leading the market into Dollar Bear trap , letting it get over its head in shorts across the board only to let fly with some form of intervention. High-probability bet now is to go long the dollar on this 200dma divergence.

Nassau QF 23:30 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Turtle system?

Just go here to get the guide for free.
http://www.originalturtles.org/system.htm
The turtles put this out themselves.

They have some very bad things to say about the guy who's selling the course.

Bs. As. 23:28 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Has anyone in this forum taken the turtle trader course, or knows sombody who did it?
Cause it's quite expensive I want to know if it is worth the money the ask for.

Melbourne Qindex 23:13 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Perth AS 23:05 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Institute.Australian monthly inflation gauge shows consumer prices flat in December from November year-on-year inflation now 2.1%, underlining trend to lower inflation
AP

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 23:02 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
short some eur 1.2845

Perth AS 23:00 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Dollar's surge cost industry $7b: studyLINK

RBA will be watching this , also job data in the US - dont see a hike next month , infact if more deterioration may hold off indefinitly in line with other CBs

Melbourne Qindex 22:54 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD & GBP/USD  Weekly Cycle Analyses . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Perth AS 22:53 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
The surging Australian dollar slashed as much as A$7.3 billion from industry sales in 2003, prompting almost one in five local manufacturing firms to contemplate moving at least some of their production offshore, according to a report issued Monday.

The Australian Industry Group report also revealed that more than half, or 57%, of the 800 manufacturing companies surveyed reported a loss of competitiveness due to the strong Australian dollar, up from 36% in May.

The estimated loss per exporter averaged 4.6% of total export revenue, amounting to an annual loss of more than A$3.2 billion for the sector overall.

The survey also found 53% of all manufacturers experienced increased import competition due to the Australian dollar's rise, reducing domestic sales by around A$4.1 billion, or 2.1% of turnover.

The survey was conducted in late November and December. During 2003, the Australian dollar rose 34% against the U.S. dollar and has forged fresh 6.5-year highs in the first few weeks of January
AFR.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 22:41 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
for eur/gbp, seems playing a DNT .68-.72 is very interesting.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 22:39 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Have a nice week everyone.

Next week, it's the Chinese Lunar New Year of MONKEY.

think aud/nzd may still has some scope to downside but I will divide my buy orders lower.
It's the golden moment for the path to 1.18.

Now it "could" extend its bottoming to 1.11-1.10 area.

nyc 22:32 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Sydney 21:49 GMT , try turtle trader.

Tsmania 22:27 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
G-10 Central Bankers May Discuss Dollar Weakness LLINK The Group of 10 forum of central bank governors, meeting in Basel, Switzerland, may signal concern that the U.S. dollar's decline against the euro and the yen threatens recoveries in the dozen euro nations and Japan.

ICT ML 22:08 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
things to look out for this week....start with GBP/JPY, see it testing 198 again, then pulling back to support that should be around 194.50. From there, up to 198 area, eventually breaking through and heading to 206.50 area is my preliminary target.

Be carefull with USD/JPY, MOF been intervening at every touch of this little hourly trend line, right now @ 106.30-40 area, would be around 106.50 when London comes in I think.........not guaranteed by any means......

Other pairs in a bit.

Tasmania 21:32 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
One in five Australian manufacturing firms is considering shifting its production offshore after the surging Australian dollar sliced an estimated A$7.3 billion from industry sales last year. An Australian Industry Group survey, to be released later Monday, found a sharp increase in the number of manufacturers claiming the dollar's 30% rise in 2003 has eroded their ability to compete in export markets or exposes them to cheaper imports.The sectors hit hardest in export markets are textiles, clothing and footwear, food and beverages, and basic metal products.
Australian Financial Review

Tasmania 21:21 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Australian government bonds /futures
Market now convinced U.S. Fed on hold for extended period doubts as to whether RBA will tighten in February.

London Paul_ex trader 20:58 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB: i am tempted, perhaps for 22%. Actually, yrs ago when i was at a leading Merchant Bank in London, our head of corp finance called down to check Nigerian Niarra rate, as he had a client (ex finance minister of Nigeria) who had (stolen) $6bln worth from centrla bank and deposited them in a swiss vault when he fled Nigeria, and wanted to convert them to US$! (Only way was back through central bank), so he didn't get very far, should have taken US$ in first place!

LAX-LGB SNP 18:05 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Athens Adam ... many thanks for your generousity

LAX-LGB SNP 18:04 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
guyz - check this new version of the Nigerian scam out

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USA Biscuit Boy 18:03 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Hawk I think you may be right mate. Last week the top pickers came out and the born again dollar bulls were sent home with their horns cut off by the end of the week. Now it seems all the analysts are all on the euro bandwagon to 1.35 again. Time to confound everyone yet again and see the euro head towards the 1.1970 support and then back up again to 1.40 IMO.

Moscow Hawk 16:31 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Last week I pointed that mid term preferable tactics in EUR/USD changed to selling upticks and indicated zone 1.2790-40 as good for selling. Euro closed the week inside this zone above 1.28 not far from all time highs and 130 (less than 1.5 % from this level).

What is about the possible upside? I risk suggesting that we will not see EUR/USD above 1.30 soon at least not in this month if at all. I can see that there is a good probability that 1.28-30 will cap the upside and 1.30 will even not be printed.

Short term I think good chances the zone 1.2600-30 will be tested again and inability of euro to hold 1.2775-00 zone will be the first sign of the move.

Good luck.

Washington DC 15:21 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush is facing growing criticism that his economic policies, including a planned push to make his tax cuts permanent, amount to land mines in the U.S. economy's path
Bush Economic Policies Come Under Fire

t 13:53 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
UPDATE - France hopes G7 can steady currency instability

PARIS, Jan 9 (Reuters) - France said on Friday that it was worried about the speed of the dollar's slide against the euro and that it hoped the G7 economic powers could do something to stabilise things when they meet in Florida next month.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040109/france_chirac_4.html

hong kong nadia 13:51 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Anyone offer any perspective?

I live in Hong Kong, earning HKD (tied to the USD) and have a loan for a property in Australia (my home country), and the loan is in Australian dollars. At the moment the exchange rate is about 6:1 HKD : AUD. The more the HKD rises, the more the loan is costing me each month.

I have the option to switch my loan to HKD, and could potentially save thousands off my loan if the HKD continues to rise. But I could also stand to lose thousands if we are at the bottom of the US dollar slump.

Do you think we are at the bottom of the US slump? If you think not, how much further would you anticipate that it will drop? Could you provide me with some simple indicators that I can look for in the media to determine when the bottom of this slump may be?

I would really appreciate any information you could provide, however brief.

Kuwait City MRW 12:30 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
I am a DoD contractor in Kuwait and Iraq. The exchanges here are selling the new iraq currency before it gets out to the world banks. Does anyone know or can tell me if buying this new currency at this time would be a good investment for potential gains in the future. I have never invested in any currency before but would like to try it now.

Melbourne Qindex 11:56 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dhahran maz 11:26 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Hello people ...
I would like to know what the enter day trader should know? I mean what are the charts he should study?....etc.
Thank you

Melbourne Qindex 11:15 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment  . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Saihat 11:04 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 10:17

"A swiss analyst was saying last week on bloomberg TV that euro will climb gradually to 180+ and $/sfr will see near parity"


it could be and more

Athens 10:37 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
I am out, too. nyc sa, a real pleasure exchanging views with you.

nyc sa 10:31 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
gotta go get some sleep ..glad it's sunday ,hope to see u more often around here Athens , always a pleasure reading u . Bye now.

nyc sa 10:17 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
thnx Athens , true ,I just read other Asian countries are buying the US 10 year bond as well to slow the dollar devaluation . After the unemployment report last friday , it seems unlikely the Fed will hike rates any time soon , some see them on hold maybe till August . Short term the dollar might appreciate a bit ,however, due to the Fed meeting 27-28 January , and ahead of the G-7 meeting in february for fear of a change of policy and we could see dollar short covering maybe a week before .They were talking sofar about a jobless recovery ,but reality is starting to set in , the question is are those facts already factored in the dollar rate? A swiss analyst was saying last week on bloomberg TV that euro will climb gradually to 180+ and $/sfr will see near parity , the question is when , always hard to time the market .

Athens 09:50 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa, thanks. The Yen could move in the same direction with the Dollar against the other majors as the 1999-2001 experience shows but I am not saying that it will necessarily do. At present my little conspiracy theory is that all the MOF action is in advance known to and approved (better say, tolerated) by the Treasury, while in return Japan buys all the unwanted by the rest of the world (but badly needed to sell by the US) US bonds thus financing the deficits. Figures show that private investors' demand for US debt is very low and surely someone has to buy them. And this someone is the MOF (and China trying to earn as much time as possible before they let their Yuan float). As usual, Europe is between the hammer and the rock. In Septembet G-7 talk was about more flexible FX rates with the obvious weight on the Yen. Well, since then EUR/JPY rose from 129.50 to 137.50... Considering that Japan and EU are competitor exporting economies we may easily see that what Japan lost in terms of a lower $/JPY has made it back through the higher EUR/JPY in terms of competitiveness while the Eurozone is the big net loser.

nyc sa 09:12 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Athens, I read a story on the yen and japaneese economy , japan does not wish a further appreciation to the yen equivalent to the euro or sfr for reasons ,that is their economy is not as bright as it looks , they live on borrowed time like the US , there are also reasons pertaining to the floating or de facto devaluation of the chineese currency soon to happen ,but ultimately yen will go lower though I doubt it breaks parity with the dollar . From ur experience do u see the yen following a different path from euro and Sfr ? in other words, could the dollar go up against the yen and down against both euro and SFR?

Athens 08:55 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 08:38, I couldn't have put it better. Only adding to all you said the additional big mess created by MOF/BOJ through the most stubborn intervention I have ever seen since the mid 70's. I must admit heir extremely persistent action took me by surprise (especially after the last G-7). Not that Japan woul;dn't be happy with it but I had thought the rest of the G partners would have objected strongly. Well, politics deceive sometimes... The big problem is that such CB ction affects not only the specific pair but all major pairs and this messes up technical analysis to a large extent. Agan, best of luck.

nyc sa 08:38 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Agree with u Athens , and I am never in a position to make a call based on calculations as I am not a Forex technician ,I only see trends sometimes too early to my disadvantage . This is a market of "mad cows"or "mad bulls ",if u will ,driven by momentum taking whatever is bullish such as stocks or currencies to stratospheric levels undeservedly ,a market driven by political rather than economic considerations .Europe needs the euro to assert itself as a strong and credible currency ,US needs a low dollar to boost its exports and hence the stock market for domestic considerations in this election year ,so the current situation seems to suit the purpose of everybody ,but of course nothing goes in a straight line up or down .Many Us analysts are making a call for nasdaq to hit 2800 and Dow 11700 this year ,so where should euro, yen, SFR and dollar be to allow these stock market levels sometime this year .

Melbourne Qindex 08:31 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:26 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
i am off.
cu tomorrow. hope my numbers will be met.
thanks

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:24 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa.
eur/usd will down to get 3 numbers step by step like this : 1.2746 (pullback) and then down again to get 1.2540 (pullback) and then 1.2445 (extreme bottom) and then from here will go to 1.3170 as extreme top.

usd/chf like this : 1.2296 (pullback) to make swing and then up again to get 1.2431 and make swing again and then go up to get 1.2469 (top) . don't forget about eur/usd after get 1.2445 and see usd/chf in where, from this level usd/chf will down again to get 1.2005.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:10 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa,
please wait. I will answer you about euro and chf

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:06 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
syney2,
nasdaq will down to get 1481

London MJM 08:02 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Athens// Thks.. It seems to me, again I'm talking about my 'perceptions', that there are good and logic arguments for this EUR move and that, at present lvls., the EUR may try some further gains, possibly with less impulse. But cable is here in 'thin air' like an 'un-invited' guest..

Athens 08:00 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
my hit = may hit

Athens 07:58 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa, with all respect, market calls of big round figures way out like e.g. 1.35-1.40 remind me of those calls like 0.70-0.65 when the Euro was trading the low 0.80's. Anyhow, good luck to you and everyone here. P.S. Needless to say that sometime it isn't the next 500 but only the next marginal extra 10 pips that my hit one's liquidity and/or nerve tolerance level...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:51 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
sydney2
Dow jones will down from op friday to get 10.322 and final at 10167 for pullback again. Nasdaq will down to from 1545.0 because that number is top. so Nikkei will drop too but usd/jpy uap will block that and then Nikkei difficult to down.

nyc sa 07:49 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
thnx Athens , I have a feeling the whole world would be establishing short positions on the euro once it hits 28.75 which could lead to a contrary reaction as it has been the case so far , one step back two steps forward which is very bullish and likely to take the euro to 1.35-1.40 before any meaningful correction sets in . I am still long the euro short $/sfr , would only consider putting a stop-loss .

Athens 07:43 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
MJM, as we all know (I guess)m there is no such thing as an aberration to an aberration (by definition). Therefore, an extension can always be seen BUT long term survival demands that one goes for the normal and not for the aberration. When the "odd case" appears the rule is to keep a low profile or stay aside for a while even if this might finally mean a possible profit foregone.

London MJM 07:39 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi// It's ok.. No need to look into it further.. The main point is, that we agree on a substantial move down, possibly soon.. Thks v much

Athens 07:37 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Adding to my 07:23-- In addition, the unit climbed during those nine weeks by 15 big figures i.e. over 29 big figures in old $/DEM terms which is one of the biggest straight moves seen during a subtrend (considering the basis and thus the percenage change). This certainly shows both the price and time aberration.

nyc sa, hello. I am still trying to write my analysis and I haven't yet drawn my conclusions. Hard to suggest staying in front of a train, harder to try tio jump on it now...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:36 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
London MJM.
I see step by step. If we talking about 1.77xx I must get information what's emotion most of players when at 1.8176.

London MJM 07:35 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Athens// Good morning.. I noticed this too, but does this imply (since this is 'unusual') that it is a sustainable bullish move or an unsustainable 'panic' reaction ? My feeling is that we are in scenario (2) and that we may return to around 1.20 before we test any new highs, if at all..

nyc sa 07:28 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Hello Athens ,nice to see u around ,what
's ur view on the dollar against euro and CHF next week after this incredible run ?

London MJM 07:27 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi// Thks for yr quick reply.. If I understood well, yr possible scenario is a move to 1.8176 and then 1.8062. From 1.8062 you expect people to buy again (back to 1.81XX) and fm there possible low to 1.7709? Is this right? Appreciate yr comments.

nyc sa 07:25 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Hi indonesia ,do u see a deep correction or just a pullback coming in euro? $/CHF ? thnx .

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:24 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 07:12 GMT January 11, 2004
please tell me. where I can get Nikkei chart and Hang semng chart with free? I can not answer your question because I don't have the chart of Nikkei and Hang seng

Athens 07:23 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Just for the record, this was the 9th straight week which marked a higher weekly high for EUR/$ and, more strikingly, the 8th straight week marking a new historic weekly high. Never during the 1999-1001 downtrend had the market managed to even come any close to this record on the downside.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:19 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
London MJM.
gbp/usd will drop step by step with 3 numbers of probability.
first at 1.8176 (ideal first corection) and then 1.8062 and will give pullback again) and and please wait for pullback high from 1.8062 to get 1.7709. I will inform you about ideal for sell again when have get high ideal of pullback from 1.8062.
I will happy if you don't againts that number and will be sad if in fact that numbers will be meet and you againts before. LOL

Sydney2 07:12 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Hi, raden, do you have any ideal how Nikkei index will go, I bought it last friday at 10905 and I am sure it will fall on Monday because Nasdaq's drop on Friday. I am just wonder if the current uptread of DJI, Nikkei and Nasdaq will continue or start a reversal. Any comments please?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:06 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
London MJM]
wait.. I will ask to my "chasper" about gbp/usd drop

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:04 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
London.
good evening here.
now only you and me here. we can chat free here. LOL

London MJM 06:58 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi// Good morning here.. If the selling starts on GBP/USD, what are the possible targets at the low end? 1.8100 or lower? Thanks in advance..

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:52 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy (when at 106.41) will up to get 108.93 before drop to 104.27 again ?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:36 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
My message : gbp/usd ideally will drop so far from this area . you can sell that . I think 1.8493 is the top extreme. to go top 1.8525 I am not sure. in my system gbp/usd will get big selling attack be begun on Monday.I hope you don't think gbp/usd will up again. too risky if have buy here. better exit your buy or sart for selling.
For euro too after get 1.2873 . this number is top exreme and so will give big corection from that number. will give big corection soon. I look most of players emotion started for selling now. too risky if you hope to get 1.3170 from now, but that number seen "must be get" after give corection from 1.2873. better exit your buy position and started for sell for this big corection and after finish for corection let's hope to get 1.3170 again.
for usd/jpy seen started to move up for corection before down again to get 104.27. you can start to buy usd/jpy now to get this big corection.
remember this.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:05 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
hello... anybody here?

Ina- mr.co'z 05:08 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
Thess/nk 2004 nk 17:07 GMT January 10, 2004

my support number usd/chf at 1.1100 in this year (2004).

Melbourne Qindex 02:13 GMT January 11, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.