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Forex Forum Archive for 01/14/2004

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melbourne pizza 23:52 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
batfink, wait for the blast......all will be revealed at the right time.. take note, a far is not long.....

melbourne pizza 23:50 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
batfink, just quickly the best is yet to come , forget the whipsaws hang in there

moonee ponds batfink 23:45 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
melbourne pizza, you got it right i held on tight,you said to give it a go , and now that is three in a row, thanks for the strat it worked so well, i will tell my advisers to go to censored, look forward to your next call.... many thanks batfink..

melbourne pizza 23:33 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
to LOL , hey lol you should flip that coin more often if you were bored towards overnight session, i was estatic on my stradegy to go short on majors, but i cant reveal my secrets, but if the coin is not working , try consulting the stars, they work better than doji's. hey if you get stuck or unsure send me a line, happy to help........ happy trading p. muzzarela..

Brisbane L 23:23 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Dollar a drag on exports: Costello
TREASURER Peter Costello has conceded the rising value of the Australian dollar is making it tougher for Australian exporters.Speaking to The Australian today. Mr Costello said the challenge for the nation was to press ahead with economic reform. "That is making it harder for our exporters to remain as competitive as they were on world markets. "It's an additional difficulty which is bearing on our trade position.
"And what it means is we have to continue to focus on keeping business conditions competitive in this country." The Treasurer's comments follow a survey by the Australian Industry Group suggesting one in five manufacturers are considering moving part of their operations offshore. The latest analysis from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows the number of exporters fell between 2001-02 and 2002-03, while the value of exports dropped $5.4 billion in the same period. The data comes on top of a Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade analysis that showed in 2002 exports fell 4 per cent, with manufactured exports down 6 per cent.

Australian.

Melbourne Qindex 23:20 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

nz DROP 23:14 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Can you feel the FEAR? a fear factor.

nz DROP 23:12 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
finish finish finisih.

San Jose Jeep 22:51 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
O.K. SNP; I guess if its free, it's worth a shot eh?

LAX-LGB SNP 22:48 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Jeep
ask [email protected] for a free trial

USA Biscuit Boy 22:48 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
I think Oilman's advice to sell euro 1.25-1.30 is turning out to be very very nice indeed. Below 1.2560 euro bulls will be in all sorts of bother for the short term IMO.

San Jose Jeep 22:47 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Any one have any info. on this "Gen dk" that keeps appearing ? Good, Bad, ugly??

Brisbane L 22:45 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Newswires talk that the fall of GBP,CAD and ZAR falls preclude further AUD weakness. with some warning that the Asian session being volatile
Still awaiting the results of the SARS cases in Sydney also if positive can be a little negative for aud.

London cam 22:26 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Agree with all comments on waiting for a while before opening any EUR/USD position. I opened my small short possie on the slight possibility that it may test 1.2575 support seen last week, as part of the current consolidation phase which I feel has not yet been concluded.

Gen dk 22:24 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Longmeadow JSB 22:16 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
I might think about a long, but the old 1.2690 resistance would be tough to break. Maybe you could get to 1.2680. Probably a little risky right now for the effort. What do you think?

brisbane sunstate 22:16 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Quebec YQB 22:08
It is better to stay side lined for now wait till asia start trading and maybe get a better picture on direction
jmo

Brisbane L 22:15 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Have to be careful they dont do a surprise rate cut similar to the BOC (Canada)are looking at.

New Zealand business confidence deteriorated in the fourth quarter last year and is worse than usual for that time of year due to the high New Zealand dollar, according to a survey released Thursday.
NZ's Adj Net Business Confidence -11% In 4Q
A net 11% of exporting businesses in the building and manufacturing sectors expect general business conditions to deteriorate over the next six months
NZP

Quebec YQB 22:08 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Then how about going long Eur/Usd? Personally I don't think anything will change until tmr's # of CPI. any comments?

Longmeadow JSB 22:01 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
I'm going short at sustained 1.2645 to 1.2610 per Mizuho.

London cam 22:00 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Quebec YQB 21:38 GMT January 14, 2004

I'm short EUR/USD from 1.2647 purely based on a hunch and out of total boredom. Not a trade I would recommend!

brisbane sunstate 21:59 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Quebec YQB 21:38 GMT
fwiw I would wait and see if 1.2650-40 support hold
gl

Quebec YQB 21:38 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Anyone short Eur/Usd from here? 1.2650

USA Biscuit Boy 21:25 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Im with that as well. Sold me some kiwis earlier today.

USA Biscuit Boy 21:23 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Cheers FM and good trades to you. I would like to see 111 in next few months :)

nz DROP 21:23 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
40 lots shorts nzd waiting.

aussie bomblets were also fired last night so that you can see them.

lahore FM 21:17 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
"%"read as 5.

lahore FM 21:16 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
% minute and 4 hourlies have a lot going in favour of Dollar Yen long,GTGL.

NYC YIPPEE 21:13 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
FWIW Hearing JP Morgan Chase may be buying Banc One.

USA Biscuit Boy 21:13 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
FM I haven't a clue :) I have a small dollaryen long going and that's all im prepared to wager at this point.

Gen dk 21:00 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

lahore FM 20:49 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Yes when it used to be 350 or 250 yens to the dollar.Any ideas on the intervention possibilities.?

USA Biscuit Boy 20:46 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
FM the dollar has also remained the strongest currency against the Yen lol.

Good to finally see the aussie take a breather. Does anyone know how much the NAB had to buy at market the past few sessions?

lahore FM 20:31 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Interestingly Yen remains the strongest currency against the USD.

LAX-LGB SNP 19:25 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
sat - you're welcome ... gl gt
l8erz

LAX-LGB SNP 19:25 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD indicates price spikes till 1.2765 should be sold into

GBPUSD breaking below 1.8340 & 1.8269 target 1.8240

USDCHF seldom warns before it reverses, today's close says that dips from the 1.2270-1.23

region should be bought ... the 1.2340-75 zone holds the key for more gains, if any

AUDUSD looks mixed but buy as long as price closes ahead of 0.7722-45
EURGBP looks enroute to sub-0.68 (thanks to Manchester Daniel - you da man !)

1.5631 caps EURCHF but closing below 1.5560-70 will unload longs till 1.5490 pulls the

plug on these tres exoticas ;-)

EURJPY still within 134.50-134.80 but little stands in the way of price except 132.50 now

GBPCHF's Queen rode her Swissy slaves so hard that she's out of breath now ;-) sell below

2.2628 expecting to cover ahead of 2.2540 and the 2.2485-65 zone

rather late in the week to sell GBPJPY so expect 194.20 to resist before 192.20 supports

Warwick Sat 19:17 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
SNP
Thats great thanks, took me a bit of time but finally got the one about the broken clock... You'er modest Dude.. GL & GT's

LAX-LGB SNP 19:13 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Sat
in your Internet Explorer window ... click on Tools - select Internet Options then Content then AutoComplete under Personal Information and disable whatever is necessary

Warwick Sat 19:10 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
SNP, at least you know how to do it ! Cheers Big Buddy, no offence...

LAX-LGB SNP 19:07 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Sat
hey dude - no biggie ... MicroShaft's Autocomplete feature used to complicate my life too so i finally disabled it altogether

GVI 19:05 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Beige Book modestly upbeat LINK

Gen dk 19:00 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Warwick Sat 18:57 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
SNP, Re: Same name...Sir, sincerest appolgies the automatic completion facility "added" SNP when I was trying to use my own user name (Sat) ! I will be more carefull next time... Regards and please keep your name "SNP".

LAX-LGB SNP 18:37 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Warwick snp 12:51 GMT January 14, 2004
appear i have a namesake
please change so we don't get mixed up - TIA

Washington DC 18:30 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
January 14 Beige Book
2:00 p.m.

Gen dk 18:22 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

NYC NYC 17:51 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
1.2734 is 38.2% of 1.2899-1.2632

Toronto 17:43 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
TORONTO, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Canada's finance minister on Wednesday ruled out the idea of higher taxes even though the government's budget surplus has been shrinking and could be as narrow as C$300 million ($230 million) this year.

GVI 17:32 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
pd cumino 17:30 GMT January 14, 2004 Edit Delete
MNI:FED'S BERNANKE SPEECH IN GENEVA REPEATS JAN. 3 AEA PAPER

Global-View 17:12 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
GVI 17:03 GMT January 14, 2004 Edit Delete
January 14 Speech - Governor Ben S. Bernanke
Conducting Monetary Policy at Very Low Short-Term Interest Rates
International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies Lecture, Geneva, Switzerland
12:30 p.m.

Brisbane L 17:12 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
NZ Treasury's view that the RBNZ has scope to hold
rates or even cut rates if the NZD rally shows further signs of undermining the economy. Dominion Post NZ

Oakland Daimyo 16:45 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
01/14/04 Update:EUR/USD: This march might be slow but distribution can take time when operators are loaded up on one side. Must adjust prices to reflect deal flow (supply/demand) Shakeout of weak handed longs appears to be over for now as institutions hold the line. However, stop hunt I warned everyone about is on the way if market cannot regain and hold @ least 1.2700 level. Looks like USD/CAD and USD/CHF leading the way. Too much going on currently to update properly. Rough day as I woke up late. Strats are working fine though. Missed USD/CHF buy entry, still trying. Looking for gap on 4hr chart to fill quickly (1.2269) also, (38.2% fibo retrace of 1.2491 to 1.2132 recent downmove) Could be same operators on this one, looking to sell higher perhaps 1.24 figure, so I’m gonna wait on this one. Being careful, as I don’t normally trade it. USD looks overstretched on all currencies however, so be alert for resumption of primary trend. Will continue to ride intermediate term trend as it appears to be picking up strength. TA 101: There is no such thing as O/S or O/B only areas of extreme. Extreme can become really extreme no what I mean? Watch USD/CAD as I have heard a lot of dealer chatter about this one last week. Just closed long from 1.2780 buy-stop order this morning. I was not watching it as I was working on Europeans. Cutting and running on this one. Mkts moving too fast for me to type. GL & GT to all

cork g 16:40 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
any news?

eur up, gbp down?

Oakland Daimyo 16:39 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Good day everyone.
FW CS 14:39 I agree w/ you about 1.2898- 1.2557. Just wanted to add something to consider for stop/reverses (in case dealers must adjust lower).
(1.2685)We appear ready to test 1.2720 from below. If bulls gain a foothold at this level we can see resumption of uptrend.
However, if move fails, this would shift scenario back to short strats and open up 1.2590/ 1.2580/ 1.2557……1.2390/ 1.2380
Please ref: Oakland Daimyo 17:23 GMT January 13, 2004
EUR/USD: Watch 1.2720 for behavior/energy clues--
Institutional support expected around 1.2700. If they do not show, mark down phase will accelerate and shorts will become favored strategy until big guns show again. Target 1.2560 or much lower

ref: Oakland Daimyo
13:37 GMT Jan 12, 2004
12:28 GMT Jan 13, 2004

London HC 16:33 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Any enws out?

Lahore FM 16:25 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
An intervention from BOJ is likely at this stage and if it came it will change not only the dollar picture dramatically but the dollar yen picture for the medium term,IMO.

Gen dk 16:09 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

chicago cal 16:06 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
if euro closes below 1.2660 today, bears will come out ahead tomorrow; vice versa

Caribbean! Rafe... 15:59 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
canberra jsh 04:46 GMT January 14, 2004

I am using a different method to identify something that the bands were not able to identify so clearly. I have been busy testing my other method and it seems to be working well.

About posting the bands I will continue and if the other method proves better then i will post results of it everyday instead of the bands.

When I get some time now will resume posting the older bands until then, I will be in and out in GV.

GL GT.

chicago cal 15:54 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
HK statestreet 15:33 ;

the answer to your question is both:

I do not know what everyone did, but most european players are leaving their desks right about now and have already taken profits on euro shorts from earlier now whoever wants to buy on dips is or has done so

Livingston nh 15:52 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Now that the ECB has reneged on all those free passes to 1.30 and beyond, a weak Beige Book confirming last week's weak US employment report might move the deck chairs around again squeezing short bondholders // BoJ might let nature takes its course for a few weeks and save some ammo for March

Caribbean! Rafe... 15:49 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
YES! GBP/JPY played out like i thought it would i was just doubtful initially about it's direction it reached my target exactly down to the pip 194.51 and has room to go further down towards the next level in next 24 hours. Applying a trailing stop from this point and will reenter the market tonight towards lower targets if market conditions permit.

193.73-12 if market conditions permit over next 24 hours but lower target and market direction may change when I run my daily projections tonight.. will justwait and see.

ML// thanks for your input last night.

slv sam 15:42 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Gaza Ibiza 15:39 /
what is going to happen soon!GT

Porto PJT 15:40 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
ECB'S Welteke : should closely watch euro and its impact on exports, but should not exaggerate FX impact on Eurozone economy; global dynamics are more important

Porto PJT 15:39 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
euro surge on Welteke comments, should watch euro but not exageratte.

Gaza Ibiza 15:39 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
HI 106.33 LOW 106 WHATS SO SCARY?

slv sam 15:33 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
$/y scary IMO.

HK statestreet 15:33 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
i heard that euro players sell euros and asian players buy them on dips. take a guess who will win

hk lacer 15:24 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
ooohhh.... where is euro heading.... northbound or southbound.... any planned trip? lol! im caught in a traffic,...

nyc tony 15:20 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
shoo be doo be dooh, sha doo be doo dah. My day in the sun has arrived. Cut half my position here. Will reestablish again around 1.2750ish. Holding the other half for infinity and beyond. good luck all

GER ad 15:11 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD out at 1.2876

Brisbane L 15:03 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
warnings from the RBA on currency strength
at tomorrow's bulleting or a sharp increase in the net A$ selling (A$1 bln per month) for most of last year

jkt-aye 15:00 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Got signal on EUR, it will down to 1.2595 on daily basis. Also 1.2500 as target of break the neckline on H&S pattern (hourly chart). Happy Hunting.

GER ad 14:57 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Short USD/CAD at 1.2897 tight S/L

Isle of Wight DHE 14:43 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
looking to go short at 1.2680ish. 15min trend resistance really building strength after the drop at 1.2700. Poss target 1.2615?

FW CS 14:39 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
If this is indeed a Euro top that we are seeing (and the probability is high that it is) then we may see a retest of the 1.2895 high to make this a double top similar to the one we saw around 1.1840. Also trendline broke on daily first time in awhile. Next support now around 20 period Bollinger Average around 1.2562 where I think it will bounce. Also on daily a wave 4 down to be followed by some type of wave 5 up...

Bratislava MB 14:06 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD made 123 pips on this news.

HK statestreet 14:02 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
AUD can dive to 0.7720

Brisbane L 14:02 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
It was an extact from a IFR article section

HK statestreet 14:02 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Thanks

HK statestreet 14:01 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
good info more selling to aud

Bratislava MB 13:57 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
brisban where did you read that pls?

cork g 13:51 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
us trading deficit narrowed, isn't that the contribution of weak dollar? is it reasonable for usd rally only because of this number?

slv sam 13:50 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
a new wave of US$ buying is coming soon IMO!GT

Brisbane L 13:50 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Two Australian flight attendants are in isolation at St Vincent's Hospital in Darlinghurst after arriving from China with symptoms of the deadly SARS virus

Brisbane 13:47 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Gold has fallen sharply from $424 in London to current levels of $418. This bodes poorly for the USD bloc. Also, the sell-off in the ZAR continues; with USD/ZAR again sharply higher at 7.1800 currently up from 6.2600 only a week ago

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:44 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd and gbp/usd have get matching at 1.2631 and 1.8327 as a bottom (IMO)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:42 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd is get the bottom at 1.2631.
you can buy here.

van Gecko 13:40 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
the Downunder twins about to fall off a cliff.. a little push from SOB'ers (Sons of Beatrice) could do it..

Porto PJT 13:40 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, thank you.

Calcutta Vikram 13:40 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Slv sam.......no sweat, just added to positions. Cheers

HK EL 13:40 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
gbp can go as low as 1.8250

HK EL 13:39 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
technically much needed retracement

Pecs Andras 13:39 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
First time after a long long time that we see good US numbers and dollar rally. It has been almost always good numbers and EUR rally.
New order in the FOREX market? :-)

Gen dk 13:35 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Pecs Andras 13:33 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
13:30 US ECON: PPI Rises 0.3% but Core Falls 0.1%, Bond Bullish] Boston,
January 14 -- Headline inflation came in ahead of xpectations but the core ratefell again, leaving the inflation picture rather benign

HK EL 13:33 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
the figure is below 44bln (expectation ) for sure so buying dolar is a wise choice

Global-View 13:32 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
GVI 13:32 GMT January 14, 2004 Edit Delete
Nov trade gap $38.01 bln vs. $41.58 bln in Nov, exports +2.0%, iimports -0.8%

Dec PPI +0.3%, ex-food & energy -0.1%

Nairobi, Kenya jk 13:32 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Usa Trade Deficit narrowed to 38.01

Brisbane L 13:32 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
US Posts $38.01B Nov Trade Deficit; Consensus $42.0B

Thanks BC.

Pecs Andras 13:32 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
13:31 US ECON: US Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Falls to $38.01B in Nov

Eilat Dolphin 13:32 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
-38 B

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 13:32 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
-38.1 bln.

HK EL 13:31 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
time for dollar hero to win again hehe

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 13:30 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
nt, add to the aud short at .7786

No name ½ smart 13:28 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   

"BY REGISTERING YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE READ AND ACCEPT THESE GUIDELINES."

Livingston nh 13:28 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
FWIW - Nov US trade figures, may be below the 40 bio mark - a weaker USD should boost exports but the important figure is Total Trade (it must show an increase to confirm an expanding world economy) --- China, Germany and UK deficit should shrink, energy and auto are the wild cards, especially for Japan and Canada//
ECB jawboning has probably run its course and Fed Beige Book should tip whether last Friday's Unemployment report was for real

13:22 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
boom another 10 lots nzd .6816

chicago cal 13:21 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
can someone please post those #'s when they come out

tia

Bratislava MB 13:15 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
thanks Cairo

slv sam 13:10 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
sold e/chf at 1.5610 target 1.5320.GT

slv sam 13:09 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 12:19 /
somebody else already bought it! you are lucky that it was not you!GT

Ina- mr.co'z 13:03 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Ina- mr.co'z 11:25 GMT January 14, 2004
Longed cable 1.8344 to minor top 1.8385 , mayor 1.8420
gl/gt

# closed minor target 1.8385

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:59 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
warwick snp.
yes I realize wrong typo at "buy at 1.8441 tgt 1.8450 stp 1.8315" but I mean 1.8441 tgt 1.8550 stp 1.8315.
ok np if that can not help you too beacuse miss understanding.I am sorry..just show my trade strategy and hope can help you.
have one position at low 1.8327 (fact in low is 1.8329) deviation 2-3 pips. hope get 1.8545 from bottom 1.832.

Miami OMIL 12:58 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the comments BC

Cairo MDR 12:58 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   

Any surprises in US data today would be the major determine whether there is further correction or that's enough correctio and we go back to the original plan of 1.3
But if the data is close to the expected we will have to wait for a break on any of the sides, a break of 1.2660 will trigger further correction ..
GL & GT

shanghai bc 12:56 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   


L 11:08 -- Good evening..From medium-term position trader's point of view,Euro is just correcting from its overstretched position..It may further down to Eur/Usd 1.2600-1.2650 region and then,retry 1.2850-1.2900 region again later and then, we shall see who really has an upperhand for the next few months..The odds are we may be in for some good Dollar bounce of some 5-10% against EZ currencies taking a few months or more while Yen and its crosses will play the crucial role in this round..Then,Dollar's decline may continue after this round of technical bounce till ECB folks are forced to bring out their canons ..Imho..Good trades..

melbourne farmacia 12:56 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 02:19 GMT January 14, 2004
The risk today is aussie at 0.7724 before the next bounce.

Sorry should be 0.7734 not 24.

Warwick snp 12:51 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Raden, your numbers dont make sense, please check.. TIA

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:48 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
seen gbp/usd will up again from here 1.8458 for get 1.8419 for first top

chicago cal 12:47 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
conversely, if this support holds then we all know what to do

chicago cal 12:42 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
euro was at a key support level earlier today at the 1.2660 area and a sustained break of this support area should be considered bearish and will easily plummit another 100 pips in the next 24 hrs.

Bratislava MB 12:40 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
any opinions on if and how inflation and trade deficit numbers today at 14:30 CET may influence EUR/USD:

trade balance for november survey shows: -42.0b from -41.8b
PPI MoM survey: 0.2% from -0.3%
PPI ex food&energy survey 0.1 from -0.1%

thx

melbourne farmacia 12:34 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT - I gave u the wrong levels today in the gbp/usd chart. Should be 1.7786 - 1.8577. GT

GVI john 12:28 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2685…$/yen 106.15
DJIA +19 pts… 10-yr 4.03%, +2 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
See GVI for more. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]


Miami OMIL 12:27 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
ML I also have a sell signal on the daily once the 1.2560 barrier is taken out on the eur/usd. Here is the fib retracement from the last move if this barrier is taken out 1.2319, 1.2137 and 1.1955. Fib retracement from the September move is 1.2090, 1.1838 and 1.1586 IMHO. (/;-> GT

Gruppo11 Lugano (Switzerland) 12:26 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Don't know realy seems out of Germany i have been told

melbourne farmacia 12:24 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
beijing road 12:15 GMT January 14, 2004
06 feb confirmed.

Gruppo11 Lugano (Switzerland) 12:23 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
You are welcome

Calcutta Vikram 12:23 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Lugano....my "Can I buy from you" was for Slv Sam, who is selling EURJPY

Calcutta Vikram 12:21 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Lugano.....thanks, much obliged.

Gruppo11 Lugano (Switzerland) 12:20 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
no sry we just do spot trading

cork g 12:20 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
UK data not bad, but cable still fell down, is that meant that now market will ignore any good news from UK or Euro, but will care about bad news to accelerate down. Just like couple of week ago, every bad news from US will be a good chance to push euro and pound higher

Calcutta Vikram 12:19 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
slv sam.....can I buy from you?

Gruppo11 Lugano (Switzerland) 12:18 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
info price with my calculator

Gruppo11 Lugano (Switzerland) 12:17 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta-Vikram
About puit option gbpusd 1 m atmf
price doll pips 0.0195-0.0205

beijing road 12:15 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
famacia: have you posted turning-period study plz?

sarasota jf 12:14 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
uk jb - your best chance to get usdyen to go down is to tell people you are long with a stop at 105.00 - publishing your short gives the boj more incentive to keep buying it !!

Calcutta Vikram 12:12 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Hi Friends. Can someone please give me an indicative price for a 1-month At the Money Forward GBPUSD Put Option. Would be obliged. Cheers

slv sam 12:12 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
sold more e/y at 134.62 target 130 level

ICT ML 12:08 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Well, I have a weekly sell signal on euro that looks like it will complete this week, and should see 1.2360, where it will either bounce up hard, or begin slide back to 1.2000-1.1500 area over time.......just real "loose" target areas for now....fwiw only

beirut jb 12:07 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
hi traders

U.K. J.B. 12:00 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Short dolls/yen 106.20 if 105.85 breaks good night stop 106.60 bid worth a try

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:00 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
yes..cow was released from cowshed to kill bears in Britain forest. LOL. just a joke here. :-)

U.K. J.B. 11:57 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
ldn Cashman

I just have this feeling that with a g7 coming up, repat. the amount the BOJ is spending on intervention and not getting very far just providing exporters with better levels to sell the dollar. The BOJ may let the yen strengthen to prove a point they can't do it by themselves, they need assistance ahead of the G7 Good luck

Calcutta Vikram 11:54 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Thanks. Just something from the School of Hard Knocks. Wish somebody had told me this 3 years ago. Risk and Money Management is where its all at. Indicators can take a.......

Miami OMIL 11:51 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 11:39 GMT January 14, 2004
Good article even better for the people that are starting forex. (/;->

Dhahran maz 11:50 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram & Cairo MDR
THANK YOU VERY VERY MUCH

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:48 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
"matador playing in Britain be started now."LOL

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:43 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
change target not at 1.8450 but at 1.8445

Ldn Cashman 11:40 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
J.B.- re your feeling on Usd/Jpy. Last week there was talk that the MOF was holding Usd/Jpy up to protect Life companies 105 KO options. They were supposedly rolling off this Thursday. Maybe we do start to dump...

Melbourne Qindex 11:40 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:40 GMT January 14, 2004
GBP/USD : The current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle reference is 1.7978* - 1.8284* - 1.8590*. After expansion of expected trading ranges the trading reference is as follow :-

... // 1.7978* - 1.8131 - 1.8284* - 1.8437 - 1.8590* // ...



Melbourne Qindex 00:51 GMT January 14, 2004
GBP/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.8439 - 1.8502 - 1.8565. The lower barrier of my daily cycle is expected at 1.8380 // 1.8411 and the upper barrier is located at 1.85202 // 1.8533.


... 1.8259 ... 1.8320 ... 1.8380 // 1.8411, 1.8441, 1.8472*, 1.8502* // 1.8533 ...

The mid-point reference of 1.8472* - 1.8502* is 1.8487.

Calcutta Vikram 11:39 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, my mistake about the link. Here goes again: Evolution of a Trader
Hope it works now

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 11:36 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
fwiw before my dinner,

the success equation need to be modified.

long aud/jpy + sell dlr/jpy

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 11:35 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
viies, remember what we talked about last night?

putting the nail on the eur/jpy coffin.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 11:35 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
viies, remember what we talked about last night?

putting the nail on the eur/jpy coffin.

Cairo MDR 11:35 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
opened a long euro for few pips till 2700..but i am still bearish..for the time beaing untill we see what is the effect of us trade balance today

Brisbane 11:31 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   

The row between the European Commission, and France and Germany over budgetary rules is about who holds what power - just as most political rows are.

But in its nature and in its potential significance, this is unprecedented.


LINK

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:29 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
ok. after get several loss with tight stp.
now gbp/usd buy position at 1.8431 and 1.8327 was activated.
buy 1.8341 for target 1.8450 with stp at 1.8315
buy 1.8327 for target 1.8450 with stp at 1.8315.
hope will get profit target for recovery today.

Tallinn viies 11:28 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
rumoured China bids at 1,2650 fwiw

Cairo MDR 11:27 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
closed my short from 2700 @ 2650 and waiting to short again...

Ina- mr.co'z 11:25 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Longed cable 1.8344 to minor top 1.8385 , mayor 1.8420
gl/gt

U.K. J.B. 11:25 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
stopped out on cable. a little confused at moment, but it's nice to have some volatility. Chf held my earlier res. level but cable didn't bounce. One feeling i do get is that dollar/yen could possibly dump. No reaction atall as a result of dollar strength. Some nice levels again to have a look at after lunch of-course.

Vilnius george 11:22 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
I am trying to find software to analyze strategy based on historical data for free. Which will include historical Forex data to enable create and test Forex trading strategies.I was searching for some time allready, but without any reasult. Any links , comments are strongly welcome. Thanks.

Dublin CK 11:18 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta:

Thanks for the link to that website. Very insightful!

Cairo MDR 11:15 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
it is on the right side bar of the global view webpage

Dhahran maz 11:12 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Cairo MDR & Calcutta Vikram
Thank you for answering me.

MDR how may I reach help Forum;Pls.?

Vikram: The page cannot be found.(http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/traderevol

Brisbane L 11:08 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai BC Hi there, your view on the current situation would be very welcome today ,thats if you around thanks

Barcelona Tony 11:08 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
well, some day should be the day .... hope everyone to be long $ for the time ahead.... enjoy profits GT GL

Calcutta Vikram 11:07 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Dhahran maz......Most importantly, look at the Trend and at your Risk/ Reward. Take a look at Evolution of a Trader if it helps.

Cairo MDR 11:05 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Dhahran maz
check the help forum, there is a goood post today that includes alot of links to very useful technical websites.
gl

Brisbane L 11:05 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Talk that US funds, long-time holders of AUD longs, have been paring their positions around 7800 level over the last few sessions

11:04 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
no use no use

the more you buy the more you scare on your nzd.

Calcutta Vikram 11:03 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
H Friends. Can someone please give me an indicative price for a 1-month At the Money Forward GBPUSD Put Option. Would be obliged. Cheers

Dhahran maz 11:01 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Hello ppl
I'm a beginner and got confused about the tools for Forex.
May any one advice me to what r the imprtant tools I should look at for a day trade?Is it enough to look at MACD and EMA only?
Thank you in advance

Brisbane L 10:58 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Little Miss No-Name - whats your target for Kiwi ?

10:54 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
nzd's. Last chance you short above 0.68 today.
You will see my bomblets soon.
add add add

Gen dk 10:49 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Moscow Hawk 10:33 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
We are currently not far from the zone 1.2600-30 I pointed on Sunday. How fast we could see my mid term targets will depends on how euro will act around this zone next few days. The moment to note is how fast the sentiments are changing. There were almost no doubts on Monday morning about higher euro (1.2950-30-1.3050 -32 were targeted levels by many players here). Now seems all are on the other side. And it is little bit worrying and I would prefer not to see such unanimous sentiments. Frankly speaking for more mid term downside it would be nice if euro manages to hold above 1.25 in January.

Good luck

Moscow Hawk 16:31 GMT January 11, 2004
Last week I pointed that mid term preferable tactics in EUR/USD changed to selling upticks and indicated zone 1.2790-40 as good for selling. Euro closed the week inside this zone above 1.28 not far from all time highs and 130 (less than 1.5 % from this level).

What is about the possible upside? I risk suggesting that we will not see EUR/USD above 1.30 soon at least not in this month if at all. I can see that there is a good probability that 1.28-30 will cap the upside and 1.30 will even not be printed.

Short term I think good chances the zone 1.2600-30 will be tested again and inability of euro to hold 1.2775-00 zone will be the first sign of the move.

Bratislava JT 10:31 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Now this is the reason of recent Euro's drop, isn't it?
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/dowjones/20040114/bs_dowjones/200401140200000468

what's your opinion?

bdg dewan 10:17 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Bdg Dewan 18:02 GMT January 13, 2004
la saint3 17:24 GMT January 13, 2004
any expert .. can give a comment on gbp pls
thanks

I'm not an expert, but i got this number from my master:
buy dollar. target to 1.8350 and then 1.8335

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:17 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
brisbane sunstate 08:42 GMT January 14, 2004
yes I realize that. thanks.
but my propose today view not yet done all. hope get recovery after several losses, but still in control losses. only still corection on equity chart. hope break high again because forex chart may be bearish but your equity chart must be bullish.LOL

Bdg dewan 10:13 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd: 1.2640 and then 1.2620, and........ 1.2520
gbp/usd: 1.8350 and then 1.8335......

ikabod_25 10:11 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
break of 1.2350 will be the signal to long swissy for a 100 pip t/p , place ur stop tightly after entry .

Stockholm za 10:01 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
1,2536 = The 0,236 F on pullback
ema ( 21-34 ) ....
Upper channel still intact EUR/USD.......fwiw

slv sam 09:58 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 12:03 GMT January 2, 2004
SELL e/y now at 1.3480 for nice dip till 1.30 level IMHO.GT

still keeping!

Kaunas DP 09:58 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD will for sure test >1.27 during NY
so better look how we will cloce today

Cairo MDR 09:54 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
does anybody else agree with me that the bearish sentiment is strong today??
correct me please if i am wrong

Cairo MDR 09:53 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
i think eur is heading towards 2635 soon imho

slv sam 09:50 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
watching 1.2560 if e/$ breaks it then i am off until i see 1.2150.GT

Helsinki iw 09:47 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Old news but Noyer raising spectre of intervention on
Bloomberg website.

hk ab 0.88 09:46 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
nt, I added short aud .7810 as well, so now short .7797 and .7810.

Cairo MDR 09:43 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
thanx Bratislava MB

Bratislava MB 09:38 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Cairo

UK unem. rate unchanged 3.0%

jobless claims fell by 8.3 K analysts expected -5.0k

LJ Anko 09:36 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
UK unemployment falls again (29.000) to 2-1/2 yr low

hk ab 0.88 09:33 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
nt, I guess someone has a very big magnet at .77 and now protecting it at .7760 first.

Look at the dlr/cad fall from 1.57 to 1.33 and you will know the meaning of the term "precipitious".

Cairo MDR 09:31 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
any news about the uk data coming out

Melbourne Qindex 09:28 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.2161 // 1.2198*, 1.2235, 1.2272 // 1.2309, 1.2346, 1.2383 ...


Melbourne Qindex 00:59 GMT January 14, 2004
USD/CHF : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.2203 - 1.2268. The lower barrier of my daily cycle is positioning at 1.2161 // 1.2198 and the upper barrier is expected at 1.2272 // 1.2309.


... 1.2161 // 1.2198*, 1.2235, 1.2272 // 1.2309 ...

hk ab 0.88 09:27 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong nt 08:52 GMT January 14, 2004
...really takes quite a while to turn the boat south...



nt, the longer it takes the larger the magnitude as usual. Unbiased mathematical theory.

ICT ML 09:26 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
$swiss needs to stay above 1.2300 IMHO for this to go any farther, today anyway.... but I have the formation of a new up channel on hourly, which matches the divergence RSI and MACD lines.....so we'll see

Melbourne Qindex 09:24 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:53 GMT January 13, 2004
EUR/USD The current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle is 1.2389 - 1.2897 and the mid-point reference is 1.2643. Projected supporting and resistant point is expected at 1.1882 and 1.3151 respectively.

Brisbane L 09:21 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
ifr say that the Dailies are back in highly
overbought territory

Thess/nk 2004 nk 09:19 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Kamensk Andy

Will do my best on both.....

have a nice day..

nk

Ldn Cashman 09:17 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
For those that believe in Head and Shoulders formations there is a classic example on the hourly EUR/USD chart. Neckline at or around the 1.2710/20 area. Having seen the downside break we could possibly return to somewhere around the neckline, but personally would be a seller again up there. The textbooks say the projected target is somewhere around 1.2520'ish.

Helsinki iw 09:11 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Out of my bum trade for -25 pips. Not happy with the non-
existent buyers at these levels. Hourlies obviously very o/s
but no evidence of bottoming here. Will stand aside for awhile
but get the feeling that the world wants to see 1,2700 to sell,
so probably another leg down first. IMHO

Kamensk Andy 09:10 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
NK ;-)
my stop is 1.2180
actually i like hong kong nt's target near 1.30 - do you think it is real?

Good trades to you and keep make us smiling :)

Thess/nk 2004 nk 09:05 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Kamensk Andy


I will phone him to ask..lol

But why u dont place a stop at break even and go have some funn?
U want to eat all the pips of world ?
Place a stop and try an open target..Sometimes work well ...

nk

Hong Kong nt 09:05 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- AUD overshoots 0.7777 by 40 pips, just 13 pips shy of stop loss order at .7850...

chicago jack 08:59 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
nk, what does "cold_feet_titist" mean? TIA

chicago jack 08:58 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
viies, my guess was pretty close, i think we'll get there. gt

Kamensk Andy 08:57 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Thess/nk 2004 nk... 08:54 GMT January 14, 2004

>>USD/CHF..i have a frd who is running it frome 1.2188..<<

How far he is targeting?
Have 1.22 long too...

Thess/nk 2004 nk 08:56 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
'Cold_Feet_titist' seems to be spreading across the board..


LOL!!!

U have mail teacher..

nk

Geneva 08:54 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 08:5
Thanks, note that 1.29 is 61.8% of wave 3 from 0.86 to 1.19

Tallinn viies 08:54 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
chicago jack 08:40 - first want to see how it acts near old bottoms 1,2710/20 area.
right now would leave an order to sell at 1,2773 fwiw

Thess/nk 2004 nk... 08:54 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning ...

Euro is SOB i suppose..

USD/CHF..i have a frd who is running it frome 1.2188..

Lets see..
nk*!*

nyc beyonding_destiny 08:52 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
still like the # 1.2345 of swissie...T/P and reverse here...

Hong Kong nt 08:52 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
...really takes quite a while to turn the boat south...

Tallinn viies 08:50 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Geneva 08:29 - you are brave man. I coulnt say it out :)

brisbane sunstate 08:42 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:33
Raden. no problem you can't win every day but you are right most days

U.K. J.B. 08:41 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
looking for dolls/chf to top out as i have str. res. at 1.23 35 which hopefully will cause the euro to base and stg to bounce will see

chicago jack 08:40 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
viies, about what level will you resell the euro? May I venture to guess, 1.278?

Melbourne Qindex 08:39 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:37 GMT January 14, 2004
EUR/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.2680 - 1.2812. The lower barrier of my daily cycle is expected at 1.2679 // 1.2697 and the upper barrier is located at 1.2839 // 1.2857.

... 1.2643 ... 1.2679 // 1.2697, 1.2715, 1.2732, 1.2750, 1.2768, 1.2786* ... 1.2821, 1.2839 // 1.2857 ...

U.K. J.B. 08:38 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Wild does not look to good for euro at moment. bought some more cable here at 1.8388 s/l 1.8360 need to keep it tight same tar..

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:37 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
IMO.
I choose beter wait at 1.2631 for buy with stp at 1.2620 (bid)
target is for 1.2725

Tallinn viies 08:37 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
closed my short euro position at 1,2665 fwiw
planning to resell

Brussels shrimp 08:36 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Seems that when the 12712 gave the way instead of calling "correction done" and expecting again a break of the 12800,decline continues and went under the magic 12700 if we break the 12620 imo we could print the 12550 .

Cairo MDR 08:34 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
After 2710 has been broken, it is most likely that we see the completation of the head and shoulder formation seen on 1h chart which imply a move towards 2630 then 2557
that's imvho

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:33 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
I am sorry..
I am flat now.
not good in mental ( any something).

van Gecko 08:31 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
'Cold_Feet_titist' seems to be spreading across the board..

Geneva 08:29 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
The one way party is over. The is some chanceS that 1.29
was the year high on the pair and that we allready started a multimonths correction. GOODLUCK!!!

LDN SAM 08:28 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
What's going on EUR???

Miami OMIL 08:28 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Very important for the eur/usd to break 1.2670 to continue the downtrend to test the bottom (1.2560) and it has to stay below 1.2770 to continue the correction IHMO. (/;-> GL GT

Brisbane L. 08:27 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
European Union Commission is pushing ahead with legal action on the euro zone's Stability and Growth Pact could well have some of the desired effect to lower the Euro


Helsinki iw 08:18 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ Bought EUR/USD at 1,2689 sl 1,2650 tp 1,2770

PAR 08:14 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Bougth GBP at 1.8410. Looking for 1.8510. As usual I expect much better than expected UK unemployment claims. Could drop by as much as 20.000 with UK unemployment hitting a new alltime low.

U.K. J.B. 08:13 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Just bought some cable 1.8405 tar. 1.8515 s/l 1.8360

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:09 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
la saint3,
Ihope do the plan.
eur/usd now have get ideal target as bottom at 1.2690
also gbp/usd seen have get ideal bottom at 1.8394 area.
I think from this number will get buying pressure again. so my view still valid.

nyc beyonding_destiny 08:07 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
anyone knows what cause this rapid SFranc selling?

MONACO OGA 08:07 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 14/01
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (Currently 1.2700), 50 pips lower than on yesterday opening. The pair is consolidating as expected around 1,2720 and could not make it through 1,2800 despite 3 attempts yesterday (rumour of an asian player offering good amounts there). Once again we need to closely monitor 1,2700 zone which should provide strong support. In case this support breaks, a shart retracement to 1,2550 seems logical. However, we still believe we have not seen the end of the uptrend yet, some technical pullback is much wellcome for consolidation purposes. The logic behind this strategy is that any intervention without the FED joining in is shortlived, and for the time beeing the US are quite happy with a soft USD, so we consider the current european jawboning as non efficient. And mr Greespan's comments yesterday in Germany was very neutral. Medium target today around 1,2800-50 while long term target still is around 1,3500.

Data out today:
Ger CPI Dec expected 0,8% 07.00 GMT
UK avg earning Nov expected 3.70% 09.30 GMT
US int trade Nov expected -42Bio 13.30 GMT
US PPI Dec expected 0.2% 13.30 GMT
CA building permits 13.30 GMT

Gold around 424,50 , with WTI February at 34,23.

***JPY***
Usd/Jpy (currently 106,20), same situation as yesterday, the market is currently trapped inbetween selling pressure and fear of another round of BOJ intervention at 106,15 (where it all started last week). Because of this new situation, we have now turned neutral on the JPY market and wait for further developments to determine our next strategy.EUR/JPY (134,90) following EUR/USD price action. Support now stands here around 135 with resistance at 136,50..

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1.8420) Today we see a possibility of retracement to 1,8330.
EUR/GBP (0.6895), on its way to 0,6810 for the coming trading sessions.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

hk lacer 08:06 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
hi there everyone... any bad news that brought eur and gbp down?

Helsinki iw 07:58 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ Market pressuring obvious support at 1,2705/15 now,
but technicals don´t really favour a sustained break, at least
not yet. Rangy still until NY hours most likely. IMHO.

la saint3 07:55 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
seems like the selling power is stronger in gbp..

raden .. your view is still valid?

nyc beyonding_destiny 07:28 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
watch $/yen now...50 pips either way soon

Cairo MDR 07:25 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
good morning forum

Indonesia RV 06:26 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
euro (1.2732)-->1.285---->1.25

Calcutta Vikram 06:22 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
The 10-Yr US T-Bond Cash Yiled fell to 4.08% last night. At the very least, this delays substantially any interest rate hikes that might have been expected. The US Yield Curve is more likely to steepen rather than flatten as the Short end of the Curve is likely to soften more than the Middle to Far ends of the Curve.

Looking at the Yield Differential between the EUR and USD it is seen that the rise in the Euro since November has, in fact, been accompanied by a DECLINE in the Yield Differential between the 10-Yr German Bund and the US-10YT. To the extent that there is a positive correlation between this Differential and the Euro, the recent rise of the Euro is suspect.

FWIW, of course

5t cal 06:22 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
http://elitegirls.nu/girl.htm?idgirl=1430&n=18

NYC YIPPEE 05:54 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
FWIW Buying USDJPY @ 25.. Stop 105.90 Looking for 107.50 again.

Stockholm za 05:20 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
CHF/JPY >> R & S Zoans at the moment
8762-8740
8717-8710
8681
8651-8644
8622-8599
True ra.. ~ [ 8801 -:- 8565 ]
Happy trades...

Indonesia RV 05:14 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
elliottwaves- you either hate it or love it.

SA Bok 05:00 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Elliot 04:43 - Appreciate .. but you guys always find a wave somewhere to explain any move .. no worries .. GL all

Ina- mr.co'z 04:48 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 04:25 GMT January 14, 2004
Thanks a lot...appreciated for your view...

canberra jsh 04:46 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Rafe, do you have any bands today for eur/$? hope break had been good...tia

Elliot 04:43 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
SA Bok 04:35 , carefull, after all is a elliot wave stuff.

SA Bok 04:35 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Elliot 04:10 GMT - at 10 or even 80 - Japan will be the 52nd state of the US... LOL

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 04:33 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
about Aussie/usd when at 0.7758
trade strategic plan.
all numbers here are bid numbers.
buy at 0.7758 for target 0.7860 with stp at 0.7750
buy at 0.7733 for target 0.7775 with stp at 0.7725
buy at 0.7707 for target 0.7760 with stp at 0.7700
buy at 0.7680 for target 0.7860 with stp at 0.7665
buy at 0.7639 for target 0.7860 with stp at 0.7625

sell at 0.7868 for target 0.7800 with stp at 0.7880

if you use with limit order for entry or exit please use 10 pips spread rule form my numbers. but if you use wit market order, please do when my numbers shown in your monitors.
because different of platform broker quotes, please give deviation of different quote with 2-3 pips.

I hope this can help your decision of trade.

ICT ML 04:25 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Ina- mr.co'zwas 04:15....thanks much, I appreciate that. I have my good calls and more than my fair share of dumb asss calls/moves too....LOL

Cable tonight?.......well I'm still wondering what it is up to. My plan was to buy at 1.8450 support, but since that has not been rock solid like I thought it would, I am flat on it right now. But I think maybe we will have a 1.8400 to 1.8585 trading range for several days to unwind the overbought daily and weekly indicators.

Last decent signal I have was a buy on hourly @ 1.8400, so I think it heads up initially towards 1.8550 in London time........but not sure at all.

Ina- mr.co'z 04:15 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML...hello friend...! what is your opinion for cable today ?
I always pay attention to each every your analysis in this forum. thanks..gl / gt.

Elliot 04:10 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
That is from elliot wave analysis i received in my e-mail, from gmx, dont ask me why because i never wanted.
"In the next months USDJPY can easy reach 80, in the next years even target 10 is possible
Every manipulation at currecies against the trend failed and this will be no exception.
Best regards GL GT"

Caribbean! Rafe... 04:07 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
ML// if you can trade this guy tonite just risk 1% of your total capital on 1 trade and fall asleep. =)

i do this most times and get some easy pips.. like that i don't sweat trading this pair.

melbourne pizza 04:06 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
p-muzzarela ,firstly if that it is your strategy and it works stick to it, if you find something better switch to it, good luck , the facts will come out of the wash eventually, happy trading

Caribbean! Rafe... 04:04 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Raden mas// what do you think about GBP/JPY for this coming session???

TIA.

all opinions and views count with this pair

ICT ML 04:04 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Rafe....not fear, just respect....and it is a BOD pair in my book right now, so I might grab some @ 194.50-60 if it hits and holds.

P muzzarela 03:58 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
melbourne pizza 03:35 GMT , wait, i need to flip my coin first, yes you are right.After intensive coin research i found that 51 % of the time the coin analisys is right with good r/r you can make a fortune.For purchase the Coin TA contact me.lol.bored.

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:57 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
my internet connection went down and now back up.

GBP/JPY. i am biased to the downside currently with 195.94 being the deciding factor.

197.76
196.98
196.52(already touched)
195.94 (market [email protected] & this lvl is critical in my model)
195.13
194.51

Ina- mr.co'z 03:55 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
LOL....SORRY Raden do not know where he is, possible our friends in this forum know where !....
ya..I will waiting you here ... because them a lot will recognize nearer with you. Please continued your struggle my friend...!! "MAESTRO"
and I hope yours anilisa exact will be more ...THX.

*ada darwis disini loh !

Brisbane 03:54 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Simple: Ellioticians have never been welcomed on this forum.

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:53 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 01:29 GMT January 14, 2004

good luck with it......with BOJ around, I refuse to short that stuff anymore.......


ML// why do i sense a little bit of fear with you and this pair LOL.


Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 03:38 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
ina mr-co-z (peuyeum)
thanks., but I don't know where is expert Elliotician Magim now. maybe bussy now.
ok, about your RO, I am happy if they know me before when I go to your office..maybe in March 2004 I want to know your winning team traders.
"HIDUP PANCA !!"

melbourne pizza 03:35 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
hey gang sentiment is certainly changing here, we need to need see retracements on EUR,GBP,AUD BEFORE new highs can be tested, correction on the down slide is certainly emerging, look at bigger picture as we start to head down,a nice rubber band effect is taking place as we speak. good luck on your positions......

Ina- mr.co'z 03:29 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Thx..ya.. you are a good RADEN....!!
Yours analysis in this forum is very assistive for the planing of our trading. A lot of RO here see yours analysis and compare with my analysis. Ya...remember the MAGIM SURABAYA very the expert in its ELLIOT WAVE. But lately I have never seen he is. What you know where he now ?..thx..

Brisbane L 03:27 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
nyc beyonding_destiny they must be sitting on the edge of their seats now praying it stays over 106 without them - the markets like a pack of hungry lions or jackals

nyc beyonding_destiny 03:23 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 02:45 GMT January 14, 2004

i agree, should be seen half yen lower within 3 sessions

Brisbane L 03:18 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Australia's leading indicator of employment dips to 0.189 in January vs 0.232 in December

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 03:15 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
INA. mr_c0_z
hey.. you r sms gbp/usd 1.8535 have done. great call.
thanks. yeah.. I know you are elliotician maybe you must look for "Surabaya Magim". where is he? never posting about Elliot again.

Ina- mr.co'z 03:10 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
MORNING ALL !! ..MORNING RADEN...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 02:52 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
I inform you.
eur/usd have get ideal for bottom and gbp/usd seen will meet 1.8577 soon.
stp bid at 1.8449 still not yet done (lowest bid only at 1.8550 in my chart).. so still ON position.

Brisbane L 02:45 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
BOJ will be in a mess when the option holders aree no longer around - with specs gunning for lower levels.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 02:35 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
I think before I late posting of eur/usd.
first plan.
buy at 1.2740 -30 with stp at 1.2725 for target 1.2765 for short trem trade.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 02:26 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
buy at 1.8441 for target 1.8450 with stp 1.8315
LOL. wrong typo. I mean target is 1.8550 (not at 1.8450).
brisbane.. LOL. wrong spelling about"monitor radiation". LOL

la saint3 02:20 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
gbp is moving down step by step!

Brisbane L 02:20 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi sorry wrong spelling

melbourne farmacia 02:19 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
The risk today is aussie at 0.7724 before the next bounce.

Brisbane L 02:18 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Bird Flu A Rising Concern In Asia

Thanks Radam will wait ;-)

02:18 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
bursting aussie bubbles NEXT.

02:17 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
30 lots short nzd.
Nice.
.68 opens soon.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 02:14 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 02:06 GMT January 14, 2004
LOL.
okay.. maybe I was bussy to monitors gbp/usd and eur/usd. :-). sorry...
okay about Aussie...please wait about trade strategic today, I will thinking about that.
but my message..seen... 0.8269 as a top

Brisbane L 02:06 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi
good morning notice you havent done the aussie lately ? I was looking to buy some but not sure if we will see 77 lows ?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 02:03 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Update trade strategic view gbp/usd when at 1.8462
all are bid numbers
plan position :
buy at 1.8327 for target 1.8460 with stp 1.8315
buy at 1.8441 for target 1.8450 with stp 1.8315
buy at 1.8439 for target 1.8470 with stp 1.8430
buy at 1.8462 for target 1.8515 with stp 1.8449 (status ON)
buy at 1.8462 for target 1.8610 with stp 1.8425 (status ON)

sell at 1.8515 for target 1.8475 with atp 1.8525
sell at 1.8610 for target 1.8515 with stp 1.8625

be noted how is the total result today

Melbourne Qindex 02:02 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
EUR/CHF EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY  Current
Comments
. Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Brisbane L 01:53 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Talk of large options expiring later today in NY Dlr/Yen
just under the figure and all the way down to 105.50

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 01:38 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
brisbane sunstate 00:48 GMT January 14, 2004
good morning too.
I think corection was finished for cable.
seen 1.9313 as the top before big corection (have be guven signal to go there). for day trade only.. hope not thinking serious about 1.9313.

ICT ML 01:30 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
194.50 I meant......

ICT ML 01:29 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Rafe, my Gbp/Jpy scenario I posted yesterday still holds I think...it tested the fib target @ 197.70 as expected, and retrace to breakout support 194.50 area before heading to 123.50 extreme target in a few weeks.......but since it retraced to 195.66 fib, it could launch from there as well, but my other stuff leans to a test of major support 184.50.

good luck with it......with BOJ around, I refuse to short that stuff anymore.......

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:22 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
i'm referring to GBP/JPY sorry for the omission.

Melbourne Qindex 01:21 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:20 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Just comparing books with you guys.

Do you all think the odds are in favor to short this pair towards 195.13-194.51? or are we better of longing it to higher levels.

would love to have comments on this.

can't make up my mind ATM.

TIA

Brisbane L 01:15 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone know when the Japanese start repatriating funds for close book closing year end - its going to be tuff then for them

Gen dk 01:15 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

brisbane sunstate 01:13 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   


Australian Job vacancies up 7.9 per cent
Sydney - Wednesday - January 14: (RWE/AAP) - Australian total job
vacancies in the three months to November, were up 7.9 per cent,
seasonally adjusted, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Job vacancies have risen 10.2 per cent over the year to November.
Seasonally adjusted job vacancies totalled 108,300 in the three
months to November compared to 99,900 in the previous quarter.
2004 RWE Australian Business News.

Melbourne Qindex 01:11 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment  . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Brisbane L 01:05 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
BNP Pariba talk of significant gap that exists down to 1.2565 on the Euro need filling

Melbourne Qindex 01:03 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo 12:28 GMT - Happy New Year!

Melbourne Qindex 01:00 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 00:52 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

brisbane sunstate 00:48 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning Raden. Great calls yesterday don't you think cable and euro has a bit more downside left before going up?

Melbourne Qindex 00:37 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 00:22 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

belden mb 00:14 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
euro/usd seems to be stuck in consolidation between 1.2800 and 1.2700. went short @ 1.2775.

Melbourne Qindex 00:13 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : the followings are still relevant in Asia Session :-

Melbourne Qindex 23:02 GMT January 12, 2004
AUD/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 0.7771 - 0.7865.

Melbourne Qindex 23:00 GMT January 12, 2004
AUD/USD : The lower barrier of my daily cycle is expected at 0.7736 // 0.7753 and the upper barrier is located at 0.7841 // 0.7858.


... 0.7736 // 0.7753, 0.7771, 0.7788, 0.7806 ... 0.7841 // 0.7858 ...

Brisbane L 00:11 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
byron problem with Australia most people see it as a far away place and dont get much info on it in Europe unless they are online, when I was over there in the Summer I contact a friend on CNBC and asked him to put the Aussie dollar on the CCy updates for me. which he did , but he said the boss wont leave it on for long, so any scandal is blown out of all proportion.

byron 00:05 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 23:24 GMT January 13, 2004

$180 mil is peanuts compared to what the Aussie banks exposure is to the property markets. And compared to some of the bigger hedge funds its is a bad overnight reval.
But Australian Banks are still some of the best run banks in the world.

Over the years every major big move in currencies, commodities, (and down moves) stocks has always seen someone blow up or go close to blowing up. When you have not had moves like this in the currencies for 10 or 15 years people style is to try to fade their perception of an extreme move.

Melbourne Qindex 00:03 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:03 GMT January 14, 2004
AUD/USD : My 44-day cycle reference suggest that the market is going to vibrate around the quantised level at 0.7665 with a magnitude of +/- 154 pips, i.e. 0.7511* - 0.7665* - 0.7818*. The trading reference is as follow after expansion of the expected trading ranges :-

... // 0.7511* - 0.7588 - 0.7665 * - 0.7742 - 0.7818* // ...


Melbourne Qindex 00:00 GMT January 14, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:00 GMT January 14, 2004
AUD/USD : My 44-day cycle reference suggest that the market is going to vibrate around the quantised level at 0.7665 with a magnitude of 154 pips, i.e. 0.7511* - 0.7665* - 0.7818*. The trading reference is as follow after expansion of the expected trading ranges :-

... // 0.7511* - 0.7588 - 0.7665 * - 0.7742 - 0.7818* // ...

 




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