Forex Forum Archive for 01/16/2004

Athens 22:44 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Follow-up on my 22:36-- Admittedly the market outperformed by far my expectation of an imminent Dollar comeback. The medium/long term aberration has been corrected by another, short term, aberration and the USD finished the week deep inside O/B (for the USD) territory. Thus, ironically it needs a...correction to its short term strength...

Athens 22:36 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
From last Sunday on this forum:

"Athens 07:23 GMT January 11, 2004
Just for the record, this was the 9th straight week which marked a higher weekly high for EUR/$ and, more strikingly, the 8th straight week marking a new historic weekly high. Never during the 1999-1001 downtrend had the market managed to even come any close to this record on the downside.

Athens 07:37 GMT January 11, 2004
Adding to my 07:23-- In addition, the unit climbed during those nine weeks by 15 big figures i.e. over 29 big figures in old $/DEM terms which is one of the biggest straight moves seen during a subtrend (considering the basis and thus the percenage change). This certainly shows both the price and time aberration."

Have a good weekend all.

Melbourne Qindex 21:37 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 07:10 GMT - USD/CHF : The expected trading range looks okay.

nyc 21:26 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
good bye usd jpy

Gen dk 21:01 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Ltn th 20:49 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo // I like your thinking. My idea was that the rubber band has half as much still to stretch. The timing has me thrown a bit what with the G7 still a bit off. Maaybe those real money folks want to have done before then in both directions?

Stockholm za 20:48 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
fwiw........
To all those who will be trading this weekend, here is some levels..... lol
And any body who did not make any money this week, should find a new line of work..... lol............ EUR/USD >>>
R3 = 12846
R2 = 12721
R1 = 12604
p = 12479
S1 = 12362
S2 = 12237
S3 = 12120
Happy & safe trades this WE........ oooppppssssss......

nyc 20:30 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
sell tons of usd jpy on spikes, repatriation at door

USA Biscuit Boy 19:32 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Sounds good to me Daimyo have a great weekend.

Oakland Daimyo 19:29 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 19:05 GMT Dumped 1/2 my load like a dummy, but left the other 1/2 open in case we went into the full markdown phase. Looking to ride this one as it appears Elvis has left the building.Buy orders scarce. Sellers clearly hold the upper hand. Must rework for next tgts. Still waiting on 1.7900 on GBP/USD (min tgt met 1.8160, 1.8020) Did not want to post these levels as they were min tgts and I did not expect operator support only early exit like me. I believe real money flows might be behind this one opening up the doors for major adjustment. Following the flow. Looking to add on the way until accumulation begins. Friday FX! Gotta love it!

USA Biscuit Boy 19:05 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo thought you gave up the good fight yesterday mate? Lol. Good trades to you :)

Oakland Daimyo 18:59 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Stretch the rubberband as far as you can to one side, then let it go, SNAP!!!! 2nd tgt met 1.2390--- Looking for more sorry can't tell u how much ,at this time, as I haven't had time to work charts. Not suppose to be working today.

Nassau QF 18:53 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Good call on USD/JPY HK AB
How low are you going on it?

USA Biscuit Boy 18:52 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Euroyen continues to be caned. Anyone have any ideas how low this pair is going to go?

cork g 18:40 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
london cam 18:39 GMT January 16, 2004

thanks, I will cut it around 1.8 today.

london cam 18:39 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
cork g 18:28 GMT January 16, 2004

very surprised if cable bounces back to 1.8060 today. I wouldn't feel comfortable holding a cable long over the weekend. IMVHO

hk ab 0.88 18:35 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
long one more aud/nzd 1.1460.

hk ab 0.88 18:33 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
switch aud/nzd short @ 1.1463 for 34 pips, now long 1 lot.

cork g 18:28 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
hello,guys,
do you have any idea about where GBP will go, I longed at 1.8060, no stoploss. should I close it now, or wait a little longer(it seems it's climbing back).
thanks!

hk ab 0.88 18:23 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp starts moving eventually.

FW CS 18:21 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Outside week on Euro took out last 2 bars lows sniffing for that 3rd week low around 1.2340...

Sydney2 18:21 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh, Thank you very much.

LA saint3 18:20 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   

Hmm Bandung. nice...
Thought you were from JKT

Gen dk 18:20 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

bdg zilfallon 18:16 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
LA saint3 18:12 GMT January 16, 2004

we are in bandung, west java, indonesia... and we are from one company with co_z and raden... Long life PANCA... :)

GL/GT

hk ab 0.88 18:16 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
short dlr/jpy 106.85

USA Biscuit Boy 18:16 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
SF I respectfully disagree based on the price action. Maybe those within the interbank can tell us if the usual suspects have been bidding dollaryen well above 106?

LA saint3 18:12 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
zilfallon and dewan ...
where are you guys located now?

Livingston nh 18:12 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 - Nikkei - I know nothing about // on the DOW its trading like 1999 - MACD has turned down so maybe a 300 point drop but I don't see a top yet - wait for the Fed

Porto PJT 18:08 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp usd, 335 pips today range, amazing.good weekend all.

bdg zilfallon 18:08 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Bandung Dewan 17:57 GMT January 16, 2004

Too bad... it's not yours then... i think the selling pressure is still high... but i'm not suggest to open position now since it's a little bit too late... ahh.. let's forget bout forex for a while... why dont you go to 11th floor and catch some chick ??? hahhahaha....

ICT ML 18:04 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
QF...yes. but subject to change.

SF Augustus 18:04 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 17:29 GMT January 16, 2004

On my 30min it looks like classic BOJ intervention, I could be wrong, but think it is worth the R/R to short USD at these levels and t/p above 106 line. Who knows. GT

Brisbane L 18:02 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Agree with Buiscut Boy must not lose sight of the bigger picutre the Dollar is in a Down Trend and this is just a correction within it Monday will be clearer but we will kick ourselves not taking advantage of the better levels to sell the Dollar .going to bed now

Nassau QF 18:01 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
ML, congrats on your calls today.
You said earlier that GBP would be a good buy at 1.7800
Are you still waiting for it to go to that level?

Sydney2 18:01 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh, Thank you very much for your help. What is your opinion about DJI and Nikkei? They are near the top?

Sydney2 17:57 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy, thanks so much.

Bandung Dewan 17:57 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
zifallon,
fwuuuih.......... get nothing at all today......

Livingston nh 17:57 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 - yen has been in a range of 106 - 108 for over a month while other majors have run up hard against the USD // a correction maybe but I don't see a reversal of the last three months back towards 115 yet // no position - no book here -- seems some sellers will be up there at 108 and above

USA Biscuit Boy 17:54 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 I don't think this is a major reversal of the trend for the dollar, just a correction. Take a look at the daily charts for euro and you see this pattern has been going on for 2 years now.

Who knows where dollaryen will head? Just stick to your own trading plan is my best advice.

Sydney2 17:51 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh
Do you think a trend reversal of $/JPY could occur today just like euro/$? please give me your opinion.

hk ab 0.88 17:50 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Hate it, the exporters and hedge funds don't give yen crosses a break..... can't place eur long in that risky manner.

Sydney2 17:46 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy
Is it possible that a major reversal occurs here for $/JPY just like euro/$?

chicago jack 17:46 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
what's a good level to long euro anyone? TIA.

bdg zilfallon 17:44 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 17:39 GMT January 16, 2004

Thx... whuih... >200 pips for one day... sure it's a gift from forex world...

GL/GT

Livingston nh 17:43 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
QF - tough to have insights in this kind of market - saw your CAD request earlier but you can see things change fast // re: Yen - IMO didn't overextend below 106 after last Fri run and so less to give up than Cable - with a little help mite get up 107.50

Sydney2 17:41 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy
I placed an order to sell $/JPY at 108, is it possible for $ up to above 111? If so I am in very dangrous situation. Your opinion please?

hk ab 0.88 17:40 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
the first try eur long at 1.2350 wasn't hit.

ICT ML 17:39 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
bdg zilfallon 17:37....4 hr ema200 is next...1.7828

hk ab 0.88 17:38 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
aussie maynot be able to do that. but eur has a lot lot more potential.

Geneva 17:37 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Dollar is the KING,

hk ab 0.88 17:37 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
IF rand tells everything, then, aussie has a long way to go.....


20% of .78 is......1560 pips.

bdg zilfallon 17:37 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
i'm running out of target in gbp now... any suggestion where it's gonna headed ? it break all the bullish trend line and now it's break opening of 5 jan'04...

GL/GT

LAX-LGB SNP 17:34 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
AUD$ is slower than its conti-cousins obviously ... in hindsight, i should have sold when 0.7720 broke ... boohoo LoL

Nassau QF 17:33 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
OK, thank you for your insights everyone.

hk ab 0.88 17:32 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
audssie avalanche.

hk ab 0.88 17:30 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
QF, check how thick the exporters have to sell first....
also other yen crosses especially aud/jpy.


nt// Do you think this eur 1.29 similar to dlr/jpy 146?

LAX-LGB SNP 17:30 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
QF
in the last 2 years,
gbp$ gained from 1.40 to 1.80+ in a free market obviously
while BOJ slowed the $jpy fall from 135 to 105

neither was in a straight line obviously
but bear in mind the difference in bp values and do the math yourself - personally i avoid $jpy since all techs, TLs and TA are not worth the paper they are printed on when it comes to dealing with the BoJ & PRC

USA Biscuit Boy 17:29 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 IMO this rally in dollaryen is not intervention. I think it is plain to see they were on the bid at 106 tho. When they intervene you will see a spike in dollaryen and all the crosses.

hk ab 0.88 17:28 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
but I think eur will lead this cousin to go furhter....

hk ab 0.88 17:27 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
I would like to see when aud/jpy stops this round.
but think MAX for aud/jpy would only be 72 area.
so, .70 is the max (10% retracement according to bc).

hk ab 0.88 17:26 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
hello jf.

no doubt on that and thanks for your SOLID input to the forum many good trades to you.

I have a new plan on aud/nzd.

short more at 1.1526, tight s/l 1.1558

Hong Kong nt 17:25 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- what's yr profit target(s) for aussie?

Nassau QF 17:23 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Need opinions on USD/JPY long.
If we had a drop of 500 pips on GBP/USD in one week, is a similar jump on USD/JPY out of the question?

I'd like feedback from others before taking a position.

sarasota jf 17:22 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
boj back their commitment with cash ab

hk ab 0.88 17:21 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
gt to her too :)
please send my regards.

hk ab 0.88 17:20 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
nt, dlr/cad hid a very nice fly now.

Next week BOC meeting.
My friend bet for a cut, maybe a strong cut.

hk ab 0.88 17:18 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
nt cheers,
I hold 3 lots this run, .7810, .7797, and 7785.

Hong Kong nt 17:17 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- my wife sold cable at 1.8423, profit target 1.75...

hk ab 0.88 17:17 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
another yen crosss selling sets in.

Nassau QF 17:17 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Glad I picked the right side on the markets today.
Just wish I hadn't taken my profits on GBP when I did.

ICT ML 17:16 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
flat on the cable short now.........might get some more, but I'm full for now

Hong Kong nt 17:15 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- 0.7777 works magic, hope to take profit at 0.7320 later...

LA saint3 17:14 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
ck ck ..
when will this gbp stop?

hk ab 0.88 17:11 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
purely yen trading style, no need to watch level, just need to watch timeframe. Once a number prints, then it goes for it.

hk ab 0.88 17:09 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
down the elevator.....

Sydney2 17:07 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
BOJ is intervening? Or major reversal for stronger $ against JPY occurs? Some people said it is the latter. Any comments please.

USA Biscuit Boy 17:06 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Thankyou to Spotforex for highlighting Zorro had hedged his euro position 75% the other week!!!!!

ICT ML 17:05 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Got to LOVE her Majesties Bloody Fridays.........been a long time, but worth the wait........right GA Lee!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nassau QF 17:05 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
$107 soon on USD/JPY?

HK RF@ 17:01 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 16:39 GMT January 16, 2004
more interesting thing is: Can eur make a key monthly reversal after the key weekly reversal......

If you study well the requirements of key Rev. at any time frame . The first precondion is the open of the later(last) month must be higher than the prev. month close. This is not the case for the present month. In fact monthly key Rev. is very rare even going into the period of the DM.
So for now possibly we have to be satisfied with a Weekly one.
GL/gt

Sydney2 17:01 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
BOJ is intervening? Or major reversal for stronger $ against JPY occurs? Some people said it is the latter. Any comments please.

Nassau QF 16:55 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
JPY jumped up again!

USA Biscuit Boy 16:55 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Aint that the truth Tony. I believe this move may even have potential to go all the way down to 1.14 in the coming weeks. But that will depend on a few factors lining up at the right time.

hk ab 0.88 16:55 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
BOJ sans want to turn the signal....


too bad, the more they go, the stronger the reaction will be.

Nassau QF 16:54 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
That's what I though Romania.
I was only looking for it to go down to $106.35 but my tight stop of $106.8 got busted.

ICT ML 16:53 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Have a $swiss target of 1.2780 that might see today yet.....but a stretch for sure

romania daniel 16:50 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
a good change to make money. buy yen to $ for 105.7

Barcelona Tony 16:49 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 16:45 GMT ..that's correct and will go there, but sharks have made people doubt of euro falling so they can make more money .. just as life

hk ab 0.88 16:49 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
BOJ is eating Dim Sum......

Nassau QF 16:46 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
My stop loss on USD/JPY short just got busted.
Any one know what it's doing?

USA Biscuit Boy 16:45 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Good morning guys. IMO there is no STRONG support for euro below 1.2560 until 1.2130. Just give it time. GL and GT all :)

hk ab 0.88 16:44 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
the only thing makes me feel good is the eur/gbp short and eur/chf long.

Barcelona Tony 16:44 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab , that's what sharks wanted .. panic to sell euro ... well, we'll see but you know what I'm trading..

Nassau QF 16:40 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
I wasn't watching it too much today.
I was concentrating on my trades on GBP, EUR, CHF crosses.
All of which were profitable for me today.

I don't like to be in too many trades at once.

hk ab 0.88 16:39 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
more interesting thing is: Can eur make a key monthly reversal after the key weekly reversal......

hk ab 0.88 16:37 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Tony, I have some interest to open new eur long if eur/jpy can give me a break.
Let's see.

Quebec YQB 16:35 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF 16:31

Didn't you find 405-406 good support level? I decided to go long on it from here.

Barcelona Tony 16:34 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
1.235 now

Nassau QF 16:31 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Not very often.
Only if a good buy or sell signal comes along.
Not trading it today.

Barcelona Tony 16:31 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 16:22 GMT ... now I'm in green thanks to you mate ;-)

Quebec YQB 16:29 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF

Do you trade Gold futures?

Sydney2 16:29 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona Tony
You are really a hero if euro is going to drop again.

HK RF@ 16:29 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
If euro can't make it above 1.2416 next is 1.2348.

And Gold is still in a downtrend with the last jump. One has to wait and see.

sf mike 16:28 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
QF, keeps your eyes on the instrument your trading. Looking at other things now will just confuse you.

Nassau QF 16:28 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Quebec.

Quebec YQB 16:26 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF 16:23 GMT

Well it shows the good support that it has hit. Some would say that it was connected to what the Treasury secretary said, or that we are entering into a long weekend. Regardless, there shouldn't be any significant moves until time passes next week to get a better pespective of price at current levels.

Nassau QF 16:24 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Gold above $409 now.

Barcelona Tony 16:24 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 16:22 GMT : done 16

Nassau QF 16:23 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Gold jumped from below $406 to above $408
Is that bad news for USD bulls or is that insignificant?

Sydney2 16:22 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
who dares to short euro again at 1.2415?

hk ab 0.88 16:18 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
seems we have got systematic eur selling now.
once a big fig. broken, the x.xx30 level will contain all the bounce.

hk ab 0.88 16:16 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
the nzd returned to the evil number .6666 again.

hk ab 0.88 16:15 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
He got almost 5000 pips in 1 day! What the.

Gen dk 16:12 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 0.88 16:10 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, my crazy friend exit his shorts at .7650 and .6650 respectively earlier.

Nottingham 16:10 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Took profit on euro long at 17

B.A. BOCA 16:07 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
posted yesterday that eur would close near the 1.28 level....well, plus or minus 400pips i guess.

friday ends with a beer. GL

Nassau QF 16:03 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Shorting USD/JPY
Hope it pays off.

slv sam 16:02 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
ab/
no..

Miami OMIL 16:00 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
A typical bloody Friday, it is a dollar bull�s frenzy. As I said before we are in the dollar retracement period. My recommendation for the inexperienced trader after the market reacts to news is to stay out until the smoke clears. The chances to make (and loose) money will always be there IMHO. Since the 1.2465 did not hold, my previous numbers are out the window. Next week will be interesting as usual. I hope everyone has a good and safe weekend. See you on the other side. (/;-> GL GT

Sydney2 15:58 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
BOJ is stepping in right now?

ICT ML 15:56 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
So much for "nice orderly markets".:-).......ROFLMAO

hk ab 0.88 15:56 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Sam, didn't you boded a lot yesterday?

Barcelona Tony 15:55 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
lol nk you came :-) just joking hope no offense ;-)

Thess/nk 2004 nk..1.40 15:54 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona Tony 15:46 GMT January 16


Toni,Toni,Toni....




nk

slv sam 15:53 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
i like e/$ at 1.1960!GT

hk ab 0.88 15:49 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
something for sure is eur/jpy still hasn't finished.

Sydney2 15:48 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Just squared short euro positions at 1.2395. 107pips in a few hours, unbelievable!

Stockholm za 15:48 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
fwiw.......
There is > 200 more to go ...
Happy Trades & have a nice WE to all........

hk ab 0.88 15:47 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Revdax, lucky that my gut feeling didn't win this afternoon.

Now we have eur key week reversal, and a strong one.

Bratislava JT 15:47 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Bratislava MB: yeah, I should have left my 105.87 buy position open :-) By the way ask Jay from global view for my email address, we have a slovak forex channel on IRC so you might want to join us for a discussion...

Barcelona Tony 15:46 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
lol mmmmmmm xcan't hear euro bulls crying .. what a pity .. well, at 1.21 there will be more ... :-D enjoy $

sf mike 15:43 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
There's still a lot of usdjpy sellers. By that down draft. I hope the buyers are stronger this time.

Bratislava MB 15:42 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
this is looks definetely like intervention from BOJ

Vaduz Tom 15:42 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
sell the rebound from the usd/chf????

Nottingham 15:40 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Bought euro at 1.2379...if don't make at least 30 pips today will add below monday -2% from 10 sma level (expected to be around 1.23380/1.2400 so anything under there) gl gt

slv sam 15:40 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
mike/
IMO it is not.
slv sam 14:14 GMT January 16, 2004
$/y at 107 level soon?

ICT ML 15:40 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
fwiw been short since hourly channel top touch in ASIA/EUROPE, 1.8245

nyc jk 15:39 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
both mike, BOJ been intervening heavily every day.

Livingston nh 15:39 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Cable thru its 21 da mva - this has been good support so at least a slight bounce to 1.8030 (talk of a rate hike in UK is now on the FAR horizon)

sf mike 15:38 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Anyboyd know whether usdjpy is intervention or short covering?

Nassau QF 15:38 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Put my stop loss on EUR/USD short to 1.2405
Prefer to move stop loss rather than close position.

ICT ML 15:35 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
there goes that target of my 4 hr cable flag pole I mentioned hours ago...1.8010 a blurrr wooooosh.....LOL

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:35 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
be carefull
eur/usd at 1.2379 and gbp/usd at 1.8007
maybe pullback from there better exit your sell or try buy.

Nassau QF 15:35 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
$1.24 broken on Eur/USD.

Nassau QF 15:34 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Wow!
Gold plunged like crazy.
Around $406

Moscow Hawk 15:34 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2, take partial profits (half) here at market 1.2400-10. Place stop to entry for the remaining possie and keep it till next week. If you see levels below 1.2360 today close the remaining possie. Good trades.

Pecs Andras 15:31 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
game not over yet!

LAX-LGB SNP 15:30 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
08:28 GMT January 16, 2004
14:39 GMT January 15, 2004
& 19:25 GMT January 14, 2004

winners still gaining
short gbp$ < 1.834x
short eurjpy < 134.7x
long $chf < 1.23x

need to get out soon coz anything that moves 2 cents is going to need 3 quarters of breathing space before it moves again
any targets before we close ?

gotta go coz the Big Boss is calling !

Sydney2 15:24 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
hi, Moscow
I shorted euro at 1.2500, where is the profit taking point you would kindly suggest?

EU ZORRO 15:22 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
To all EURO bulls:

...WAIT FOR 1,2222.....to long again....

GL

nyc jk 15:21 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
I agree Andras, we have come a long way fast but I wouldn't rush in to buy now either. I have 1.2340/60 area as the next key one, below there and will start to get more trend follower stops kicking in.

Pecs Andras 15:21 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Just checked it out on some charts and analyses.
I do not see any solid support until 2325ű
Can EUR shed 300 pips in one day?

Adelaide albbar 15:20 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 14:38 GMT January 16, 2004
Short order kicked in at 1.8100 for 1.8032 .

You got there, well done!

ICT ML 15:19 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Andras...1.2330-50-60 is the next area of key former support, and where I expected it to stop today....fwiw

slv sam 15:19 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
i would not be surprised if e/$ closed today below 1.23! and next week we see 120 level in this way...the market would have adjusted the brutal swings!GT

HK RF@ 15:19 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
I am trying to enter the mind of those fund managers and bank exec. who hold large long positions in those declining currencies. Except the fact that some are urinating in their pants or suffering from strong heart palpitations fainting in their chairs etc. etc. What will happen if at reasonable time B4 the close they will realize that Euro and others are definitely bound south south....

Pecs Andras 15:18 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
jk
2425 seems to be going on EUR, what is the next important level?
Buying on dips does not look good to me now, the first time after several months

Moscow Hawk 15:16 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY has finally given up 132.20-50 and it leaded fast sell-off in the pair.

EUR/USD is not far from first mid term target 1.2300-50. I think 1.2350-2450 zone is good to take profits at least partial from the shorts from higher ground (1.27-29). As for the fresh EUR short positions (if have no position at all) I would not recommend them at current levels. On my mind r/r is not favorable.

And the pure winner of the week so far was the JPY. It was strong across the board despite the recent intervention and overall dollar strength. But the new highs for the day will be not good sign for the JPY.

Have a good weekend.

Vilnius george 15:16 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
HK RF@ 15:11
agry. and one more thing , for deep analysis trader should be flat for now.

nyc jk 15:14 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
I am not sure on that one Andras, I would rather be long than short, but it marches to it's own tune...I am standing aside on it for now and concentrating on other pairs.

GVI 15:13 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
ML. Numerous times

ICT ML 15:11 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
GV..when?

HK RF@ 15:11 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
I think that for the conservative trader, the best time for in-depth analysis is the coming Sat. and Sun. Friday is not the best day to trade and one will know a lot more within few hours.

Barcelona Tony 15:09 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
euro is dancing! lol!!! welcome south flights to ... mmmmmmmmmmmm well, where nk has stops :-D LOL

Global-View 15:08 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
ML. Did you receive my email?

Vilnius george 15:08 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
I think another maximum 200 pips rally to 1.22 area is for monday. after that there is nomore were to go for eur/usd. we don't have any data soon from US, only 22Jan USD Initial Claims is. gl

Pecs Andras 15:07 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
jkű
Thanks mate
Still wondering whether to enter long dollar/yen...

Nassau QF 15:06 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
That's OK ML, I'm not taking a short based on the figures you gave me. I'm just staying out for now.

ICT ML 15:04 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
QF....that doesn't mean I think we see it today, but I see it may head there if BIG TIME buyers don't show up real soon like......

HK RF@ 15:01 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Gold!!! Daily Osc. hit a TREND DOWN. So if anyone wants to long currencies, just bring it into account. So simple!!!!

Nassau QF 15:00 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
A fall that far?
Yikes!
I'll stay away for now.
Thanks ML

ICT ML 14:59 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
QF..pound is a good buy @ 1.7800 IMHO right now

nyc jk 14:58 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
andras - been large selling of JPY x's, limiting $/JPY upside, but it looks like BOJ on the bids with Mizuho and the regular crew seen buying thus we have the usual $/JPY stalemate.

Nassau QF 14:56 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Is pound good buy at 1.8055?

Pecs Andras 14:56 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, I meant: guys... anybody

Pecs Andras 14:56 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Guy
EUR And GBP shed more the 200 pips but YEN would not move an inch for many hours now.
Any reason why?

Gaza Ibiza 14:55 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Geneva ....guess so !

slv sam 14:54 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
..nk i hope you are ok! GT

Geneva 14:53 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Gaza- so buy euro quickly.

Gaza Ibiza 14:51 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
rumor that george soros today is the main seller of euro fwiw!

Global-View 14:50 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
GVI 14:50 GMT January 16, 2004
U of M 103.2 vs. 92.6 in Dec

canberra jsh 14:50 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
thats a pretty big # for mich sentiment...

slv sam 14:50 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
500pips e/$ is almost 500pips down in 5 days! this is A BRUTAL!

Bratislava MB 14:50 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
U of Michigan 103.2 very strong number

Pecs Andras 14:49 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
14:46 US ECON: U of Mich Rises to 103.2 Versus Expectations of 94.0]
January 16 -- Expectations called for 94.0 while IFR"s point estimate was 91.0.

WOW

GENEVA FHR 14:47 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
UN MICH 103.2

Plovdiv Gotin 14:41 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Cable next:1.8050/1.7940.

melbourne farmacia 14:38 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
usa tt 13:05 GMT January 16, 2004
Sorry bit late for your Q - target was 50 pips, covered and new Short order kicked in at 1.8100 for 1.8032 .

slv sam 14:36 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
e/$ around 1.20 is more realistic rate IMHO..remember 1.20 was unthinkable one year ago..but now market is ready to accept it!!GT

Nassau QF 14:35 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Looks like USD/CAD hitting 1.30 after all LOL.
Just because I didn't stick with my position.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:34 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF 14:23 GMT January 16, 2004
I still not yet get that number. better wait today close for weekly candle. that's the key for reversal or not.

Deauville Izaak 14:33 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
hELLO?
WHAT's next target on gbp/usd please??

Nottingham 14:32 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
should say 1.2425 marks today's -2% level

Wiarton H 14:32 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
The 50 50 swissy system completed at 1.2609 for today.

Nassau QF 14:32 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Kollam Treasurer said GBP/USD would dip to 1.8050
Looks like he was right.

Nottingham 14:29 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
$ bulls don't get carried away...we may see sub 1.23 levels but not this week...we are close to being 2% below the 10 day sma (1.2and the pair doesn't trade below it for long>>>bare in mind -2% level on Monday will still be around 1.24 gl gt

ln 14:25 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
european cb have sold some $3bn this week.

Nassau QF 14:23 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
You think GBP/USD will get 1.85 Raden?
Not sure I understood you?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:23 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
I am sorry again.
I mean 1.8100..
LOL

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:22 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
I mean stp at 1.8200 . LOL

Barcelona Tony 14:18 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Sofia 14:15 GMT ..yes, if you want to loose money

Sofia 14:15 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Good time to sell $

slv sam 14:14 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
$/y at 107 level soon?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:14 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd when at 1.8223
buy here to get 1.8206 (top) with stp 1.8500 (bid)

Barcelona Tony 14:08 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
$chf 1.32 is next,s o keep buying euro :-D

London R J 14:08 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
any thoughts as to where cable is headed today/ monday. good time to buy $ ??

Tallinn viies 14:06 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
extremely good numbers for net inflow to the US

Brisbane. L 14:04 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Foreigners recorded net purchases of U.S. securities totaling $87.6 billion in November, up from a revised $27.8 billion in October, according to data released Friday by the Treasury Department.

Barcelona Tony 14:01 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
come on people thi is a joke euro 1.25 keep selling ... get gbp also here...come on

mid_town the_crusher 13:56 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone know what is expected for the tic data due to be released at 1400 gmt?

slv sam 13:50 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
sorry meant down not UP!

slv sam 13:49 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
any new statement from us officials stressing strong dollar policy could push the euro another 400pips up against the us$ IMHO!GT

slv sam 13:39 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
e/$ rate is irrelevant! it can be at 1.14-1.15 and many economists will be still arguing that it is still overvalued!GT

ln 13:34 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Let's get rid of Tony. His nose is so big he makes Shipman look good.

ln 13:33 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
higher the dollar!!!

Geneva 13:21 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Lower the Euro!!!!.

Nassau QF 13:12 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
I closed my open trades.
3 out of 4 made a profit.

I'm wondering if I should call it quits until Tuesday?

Does anyone predict any big moves for today?

ln 13:06 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
think that the euro can go down further. ecb is talking too much for my liking and am cutting longs. think aus is prob a better way to play this move on $. although keeping my aus/zar long on the books.

beirut jb 13:06 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
hi traders,

Tallinn viies 12:40 GMT

Hi mate, I agree on ur viewIntraday ,hourly oversold but euro has to clear 12515,12560 before hiting 126

I will wait data on 8:30 before any position coz it may altered

above view

GL GT

usa tt 13:05 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 12:14 GMT January 16, 2004
Picked some gbp/usd at 1.8110 fwiw

for what short term target?

Nassau QF 12:58 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Nevermind on that USD/CAD :(

Nassau QF 12:43 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD anyone?
Will it go up to 1.30?

Tallinn viies 12:40 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
bought euros at 1,2484 fwiw
target 1,2600/10

GVI john 12:37 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2485�$/yen 106.05
DJIA +16 pts� 10-yr 3.95%, -2 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI�s �Market Snapshot�:
CLICK HERE
for more see GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]

Ldn 12:37 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Danish Bonds higher on ECB Rate-Cut Hopes Krone Stable

Miami OMIL 12:36 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Sorry for the typing error 1.25765-70 = 1.2565-70. Any input from the masters on my calcultions are very welcomed. (/;->

Miami OMIL 12:32 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Looks like eur/usd needs a breather at the moment. Stochs are in oversold area and are turning up on my charts. If 1.2470-65 holds at this point I am looking at fib retracement estimates as follows 1.2520-25, 1.2535-40 and 1.2555-60. First set 1.25765-70, 1.2600-05 and 1.2630-35. The complete move fib retracement is 1.2635-40, 1.2685-90 and 1.2730-40. The resistance at the moment is 1.2625-30, 1.2670-75 and 1.2690-1.2700. Top on this move is 1.2730-40 area. If this top is broken then the bulls have control of the show again IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Nassau QF 12:31 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
What's up with that big spike up on USD/JPY?
BOJ restless?

SA Bok 12:29 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Got to love this FX .. A week ago everyone and thier Mother said 1.3000 + and now its 1.2000 and maybe lower ...
Go on boys and girls talk your book ..

GL All

Mtl JP 12:29 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
MB 11:47 / the risk runs on the topside of concesus. Ahead of the number comes out IP (expt'd 0.5% vs 0.9%). Keep an eye out on Tresuries' yealds in reaction to what is lining up to be yet another in a string of improving numbers.

Kollam Treasurer 12:26 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD should dip to 1.8050 before any bounce, which is only corrective in nature. Euro's target lies at 1.2450, which will only act as minor support. This decline is worth another 340 pip fall to 1.2140.

Brisbane L 12:25 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD's plunge below last week's 1.2562 low has triggered forced liquidation pressures, says Merrill. After 9 consecutive weeks of higher weekly closes, this setback represents a intermediate term bearish reversal, capping EUR upside potential in 2Q. Minimum pullback area seen 1.2315, full correction of 4-mo EUR rise targets 1.2080 by 2Q. Reuters

milan 12:21 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
please anyone can tell me what was eurusd low traded today TIA

Nassau QF 12:20 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
I'd love to short some USD/CHF
Any comments?
Haven't taken the trade yet.

Nassau QF 12:18 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Hace some Cable with a stop loss of 1.81

Nassau QF 12:16 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
I picked up Euro at .72
Don't know for sure about it though.

melbourne farmacia 12:14 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Picked some gbp/usd at 1.8110 fwiw

Melbourne Qindex 12:08 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:40 GMT January 16, 2004
EUR/USD : the trading reference of my 44-day cycle is as follow :-

... 1.1882* // 1.2009, 1.2136*, 1.2263, 1.2389*, 1.2516, 1.2643*, 1.2770 // 1.2897* ...

Melbourne Qindex 12:05 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:40 GMT January 14, 2004
GBP/USD : The current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle reference is 1.7978* - 1.8284* - 1.8590*. After expansion of expected trading ranges the trading reference is as follow :-

... // 1.7978* - 1.8131 - 1.8284* - 1.8437 - 1.8590* // ...

HK RF@ 12:05 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
In the long term view the bullish view for the euro should not be discarded all the time euro is above parity.

Melbourne Qindex 12:02 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
india sunil chopra 11:43 - What is your problem? I know your are Pakistan xxx

ICT ML 12:02 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
have an interesting bear flagpole in cable on 4 hr, if it plays out, and stays under 1.8150, its target is 1.8010.....just keep it in mind if this 1.8110 support faills in NY time

beijing road 11:59 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
It is not a safe trade , but more risk more profit. Tight stoploss always!

beijing road 11:57 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
TRY SMALL long position at 1.8125, which is cable daily upside channel. Stop at 1.8090.

Melbourne Qindex 11:52 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:52 GMT January 16, 2004
GBP/JPY : The trading reference of my 44-day is as follow :-

... // 188.81* - 190.67 - 192.52* - 194.37 - 196.22* // ...


GBP/JPY : The lower barrier of my daily cycle is expected at 191.47 // 192.10 and the upper barrier is positioning at 194.00 // 194.63.


... 191.47 // 192.10 - (193.37) - 194.00 // 194.63 ... 195.89 ...

Cairns Troppo 11:52 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
testing one two...one two...yep it works.

Brisbane L 11:52 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Belgian central bank warned that a new rise may present a 'risk to Europe's recovery', while Issing has told markets that Trichet is not ignoring euro strength, and is 'worried'.players are talking up the chances of an imminent ECB rate cut this morning, perhaps an emergency one. The March Bund future has rallied sharply since open to fresh six-month highs of 114.93 over such concerns. Italian Industry Minister Marzano said Wednesday that a rate cut from 2.00% is required o dampen the rise, while Belgian Finance Minister Reynders believes that a rate cut would be necessary if EUR/USD moves above 1.30. rts.

Spotforex NY 11:47 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
india sunil chopra 11:43

totally uncalled for. Dr. Q is a respected market technician. If you can post in a 'clearer' manner with astute market observation - then please feel free. It is easy to criticize....

Bratislava MB 11:47 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Is there a possiblity that michigan index number influence eur/usd so it changes direction or even greater drop ofcourse given that it comes out different from expectations?

Michigan index 9:45 EST

market expects 94-95 and prior was 92.6

thx

Ldn 11:46 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
The sharp drop in gold price offers confirmation that USD has bottomed out, and with two consecutive NY closes through key trend lines, a further upward correction in USD could be sharp Ldn dealer

Melbourne Qindex 11:34 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 10:01 GMT - Use the daily and 44-day cycle for reference at the same time. The market rhythm of my weekly cycle is represente by 94 pips, therefore the next weekly cyclequantised level is 1.2511 - 94 pips = 1.2417.

Melbourne Qindex 11:32 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:37 GMT January 16, 2004
EUR/USD : The lower barrier of my daily cycle is expected at 1.2454 // 1.2478 and the upper barrier is located at 1.2672 // 1.2696.


... 1.2454 // 1.2478, 1.2503, 1.2527 ... 1.2575, 1.2600 ... 1.2648, 1.2672 // 1.2696 ...

... 1.2454 // 1.2478, 1.2503, 1.2527, (1.2551), 1.2575, 1.2600, (1.2624), 1.2648, 1.2672 // 1.2696 ...


EUR/USD : the trading reference of my 44-day cycle is as follow :-

... 1.1882* // 1.2009, 1.2136*, 1.2263, 1.2389*, 1.2516, 1.2643, 1.2770 // 1.2897 ...

Thess/nk 2004 nk 11:31 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Leva ak 11:20 GMT January 16,

First u are a Killer of Greek language..


Second Yes Euro is a Buy frome here ...imo but there are 2ways to do it..

Small Risk= wait and wait and wait
Big Risk= Just do it ..(at least u will do what u wanted if u are wrong)

Have a nice Flyday soon..!

nk

HK RF@ 11:30 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Common sense requires to be a little cautios today about an attempt of a pull up of Euro price above prev. week close (1.2559). We have to remember that today is Friday and a lot of trapped in longs can't get out because of their large positions. Seems like volatility for tonite guaranteed.

Leva ak 11:20 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
ok:)) thimamai pws to perimenes 100 tikakia pio katw

Brisbane L. 11:18 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
HK RF if they are correct possible

Thess/nk 2004 nk.. 11:14 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Leva ak 10:47 GMT January 16


It depend who is ur Broker...
If is a Bank its a thief...LOL!!!

Yes i like this level..and learn to search archives cos its discount season and i do 2 works together..

Teacher..no? ;)


nk

HK RF@ 11:06 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   


Brisbane L 10:58 GMT January 16, 2004

In other words one may hold HKD cash for a while and make some money. More safe than other currencies.

Brisbane L 10:58 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank have joined the growing list of investment banks predicting China will begin the process of revaluing the yuan this year. Chinese authorities currently allow the dollar to trade against the yuan within a 0.3% band either side of the central point of CNY8.2770.JP Morgan's forecast calls for a one-time modest revaluation of the yuan peg followed by a widening of its trading band that would result in roughly a 6% appreciation of the Chinese currency by year-end
APP/reuters

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:51 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles bernie 08:36 GMT January 16, 2004
welcome...

Leva ak 10:47 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
thess geia, nomizeis kalo shmeio gia agora eur?

nyc beyonding_destiny 10:10 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
load euro and gbp...T/P 1.305 and 1.888(within two months)...will double around 1.235 and 1.8

Thess/nk 2004 nk.. 10:09 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 10:07 GMT



100% agree!



nk

Thess/nk 2004 nk 10:08 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
The Mind Trick in FX..


Buy when Bulls are sad and Bears are smiling..

For Sure its a risk..lol

nk

ICT ML 10:07 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
jsh......looked again, and the steepened $swiss channel did stop its rise on the nose, 1.2560 top now...fwiw..bottom 1.2460, than 1.2410, then 1.2260...hope it helps

van Gecko 10:06 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
euro at/near it's max weekly ATR.. however, if eur/yen decides to go crazy & set a new max weekly ATR.. a 5 figure corrective week is possible for bear shrimp'ing down in the 1.23.. so there's still light shedding from the european sky for potential BOOB'pers..
cheerios

Moscow Hawk 10:04 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
AB, to avoid this just place stop above day�s high (therefore I pointed limited risk).

Thess/nk 2004 nk 10:04 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..


I think will try to Buy some Euros around...



nk

Nottingham 10:02 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Brussels shrimp 09:56 GMT

Lack of memory...I like this...also panic I would say...people seem to lose patience and discipline at the time they need it most

QC WC 10:01 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, Euro now trading below your weekly cycle lower barrier of 1.2511, any infos re lower targets appreciated. TIA

Brisbane L 10:00 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Brussels shrimp and you still have a sense of humour - again really good to see you back

Brisbane L 09:58 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Talk emerges that a Washington-based think tank has told clients that having spoken to the ECB, it believes the bank is more concerned about euro strength than it would initially appear, report traders. Briefing is said to have been via a conference call but it's not clear how much of an impact it had on EUR/USD. reuters

Miami OMIL 09:56 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
ML I believe that people are a bit nervous now that the correction has begun. A lot of people were expecting (are expecting) one more push to the 1.2900 area. Remember what I said in the email I sent you. Correction has begun IMO and fib retracement as I stated before is from November�s move 1.2319, 1.2137 and 1.1955. Fib retracement from Septembers move is 1.2090, 1.1838 and 1.1586 IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Brussels shrimp 09:56 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Hello Brisbane ,I hope it will work this year like in the past,however we don't have to forget that forex is a Markov process characterized by having a lack of memory,i'm sure that our friend on the top of Grouse Mountain can confirm it.

hk ab 0.88 09:55 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 13:32 GMT January 15, 2004
mkt wants to see some blood.. terrible.




Hawk, one reason why I don't want to short dlr/jpy here is I can easily become the dim sum of BOJ, take care.
GT and GL.

Ga Lee 09:53 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 09:40 GMT January 16, 2004
It is a 3 day weekend coming,U.S. closed on Monday..

Sydney2 09:53 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Any view on the DJI, Nasdag and Nikkei indices?

Barcelona Tony 09:50 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
be careful with your longs against the $ , your account is going to be burnt fast ... this is a one way down train

Moscow Hawk 09:49 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Ab, I do not count on low but rather point that EUR/JPY could find support in this area at least short term and think this zone is good to take partial profits on shorts. Mid term euro does not look good and more downside is in sight.

Also why do not you short USD/JPY instead of buying now? You pointed good targets and I think 105.40-70 will be tested again later. Think it is easier today to make money with limited risk to short the pair.

Good luck

melbourne pizza 09:45 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
good luck on your shorts for majors, stat has worked well, no reversals just yet........

Brisbane L 09:43 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Brussels shrimp yes its been a long time since you have posted I used to follow you back in the early days

Nottingham 09:42 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
EU ZORRO 09:30

Still sleep I guess :) Another 50 pips and euro will be 2% below 10 day sma...I will be a buyer for every day it trades below it

ICT ML 09:40 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Starting to think everyone and their "cat" ;-) wants to be flat going into the weekend for some reason.....if NY comes out dumping euro, 1.2350 or lower it is IMHO

van Gecko 09:38 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
sounds like Sayonara magim

hk ab 0.88 09:36 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Hawk, if it's not due to intervention, not due to holiday, why don't you count the low?

It is very important to be counted indeed.

Bandung Dewan 09:33 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Bdg Dewan 16:47 GMT January 15, 2004
short eur/usd: 1.2560...... 1.2543............. 1.2520

DONE ALL by ELLIOT WAVE!!!!!!
DONE ALL by ELLIOT WAVE!!!!!!
DONE ALL by ELLIOT WAVE!!!!!!

Moscow Hawk 09:31 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Now we have got new January low in EUR/USD but frankly speaking I do not count on much downside for today. EUR/JPY is testing my daily target 132.20-50 and this zone also could contain the downside short term.

EU ZORRO 09:30 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi all....!!!!

....Nottingham 09:17....today is friday.....

...IMO...possible Zorro Zone 1,2222...

GL all

hk ab 0.88 09:21 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
new orders for dlr/jpy on 105.55 and 105.05.

hk ab 0.88 09:18 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 09:17 GMT January 16, 2004
fwiw I will be buying euro 1.2430 today if seen and also arouind 1.24 tomorrow if seen...agree with Brussels that 1.2320 (61.8% +/-) is possible from this current slide but I believe that it is the maximum low that can be achieved before having a minimum of a one day rally...also tomorrow is a Friday and if we close at the week's low it is worth remebering that we will need to trade in this week's range next week, even if it is only 50 pips...gl gt




There is not necessary "maximum" or "minimum" for japanese players.

van Gecko 09:18 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
tough times ahead for bulls now that shrimp is selling.. nice to you back from retirement

hk ab 0.88 09:17 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
a stop is needed for this run in aud/nzd shorts.

Nottingham 09:17 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
fwiw I will be buying euro 1.2430 today if seen and also arouind 1.24 tomorrow if seen...agree with Brussels that 1.2320 (61.8% +/-) is possible from this current slide but I believe that it is the maximum low that can be achieved before having a minimum of a one day rally...also tomorrow is a Friday and if we close at the week's low it is worth remebering that we will need to trade in this week's range next week, even if it is only 50 pips...gl gt

Brisbane L 09:16 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
SA getFX many thanks

hk ab 0.88 09:16 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
if we don't count the jap intervention yesterday, the aud/jpy and eur/jpy also make weekly reversal soon.

hk ab 0.88 09:14 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
long dlr/cad when cadjpy knock the 80 door,, you will receive a big gift.

SA getFX 09:14 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 8:43 > This ref may be of interest:
http://www.netassets.co.za/Debt/Debt.asp?websitecontentitemID=22254

ICT ML 09:07 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
now I have to think....was going to reverse cable shorts @ 1.8100 in a big way....but if we hit it before NY, which we are , what if NY wants to sell too...1.7800 is next.....HUMMM

hk ab 0.88 09:06 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
new shorts aud/nzd 1.1485 x 2 lots.

Brussels shrimp 09:05 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
now that we are under the 1.25 i don't see why � should rally back to 1.27 ,it seems to me that the actual corrective decline could go to 1.2410 and if broken 1.2320 imho.

hk ab 0.88 09:05 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Revdax, my gut feeling want to follow your call a lot but the eur/jpy is really not painting something good to short USD.

Brisbane L 09:00 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
ECB Issing has begun his speech in Mannheim. Regarding euro strength, Reuters reports that he is 'worried', while the negative German growth of 2003 (minus0.1%) is not due to the rise. said to have caused Euro fall below 125

ICT ML 09:00 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
jsh...it broke the top of my channels again 1.2525 was it

van Gecko 08:59 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
if 1.27 is not seen soon.. euro BULLS carrying heavy cargos could turn into euro BOOBS (Bail Out On Blips)..

canberra jsh 08:58 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
ML...if you're around, do you have a channel top for $/chf as of right now?...looking at 1.2559 as a fib lvl, wondering if you have anything corresponding...tia

hk ab 0.88 08:57 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 16:40 GMT January 13, 2004
viies, this is my sudden thought...

W's comment is putting the nail on eur/jpy top....

When jap can't see any further move, they shift.............
Seem some of them have shifted to gbp already.
And I wonder if all CBs do the same kind of call, what will happen on USD......




It makes me to remember that it just took a week to drop dlr/jpy from 135 to 106 in 2 weeks.

Ina- mr.co'z 08:57 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
HK EL 08:50 GMT January 16, 2004

ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPAL (Key To Market Behavior)
by FORST and PRECHTER.

good luck for you my friend !..

ICT ML 08:55 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
HK EL 08:46 GMT January 16, 2004
well, even without Ewave theory, 1.2330-60 is the next buy area on euro IMHO.......previous support

Moscow Hawk 08:54 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD finally passed through 1.2600-30 and now we are not far from 1.25. As I pointed before I would prefer not to see euro below 1.25 very fast despite my first mid term target 1.2300-50. But currently euro does not look good and to ease pressure downside it needs to mark new daily highs.

I think aussie is poised to test 0.7630-60.

Good luck

Moscow Hawk 08:51 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Monaco Oga, unfortunately I do not remember your November comments. But your fresh posts looks like bottom picking to me in current market phase. Every time you point new area when you expect EUR/USD will bottom out. I think it could be costly but at least now your risk tolerance is clear. Good luck.

HK EL 08:50 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks a lot ina. Can you suggest a book to me...?

HK JR 08:50 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Euro = Swissy

nyc beyonding_destiny 08:49 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 08:43 GMT January 16, 2004

ZAR 8.75(bid) 10(ask) Sat Dec 20 09:56:46 2003 on O-A-NDA

HK EL 08:46 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
then according to that wave thoery i should only buy euro when i tcome back to 1.2330......

Brisbane L 08:43 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Could someone say what are the interest rates in South Africa thanks curious.

hk revdax 08:43 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab//sorry for the late reply. was off. i have no idea but quindex's range for today of $/CHF is worth taking a look at.

Los Angeles bernie 08:36 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden:

thanks for your many terrific signals. may i ask mr. jay for your e-mail?

Ina- mr.co'z 08:36 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
HK EL 07:55 GMT January 16, 2004

I also learn the science of elliot wave and I think this enough assist the me in trading. Is such as those which conversed by Ldn 08:00 GMT January 16, 2004 .... you better buy its book and learn the elliot wave better. and try the you detail from movement from small , try to reckon from the graph 5 minute of up to last 4 hour in supporting with the graph of daily and weekly. possible from there you will get the conclusion that elliot wave very can assist the you for the prediksi of. thx ! ...g/l..g/t..

hello raden ..i was placed my order long cable at 1.8145...good luck for you !...

MONACO OGA 08:35 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Hawk, there was a nice trading zone last December around 1,2320-1,2410. To answer your question, I think 1,2300 offered will open door to deeper retracement to critical chart point 1,1950 (where it all started if u recall my comments end November).
so far 380 pips retracement in 1 week more or less is the deepest we have seen since last october (1.1870-1.1370=500 pips in 2 weeks).
So far, I still believe anything below 1,2470 is a good entry point for longs.
good luck++

LAX-LGB SNP 08:28 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
i thought this Martin Luther King day would make ppl relax for a change but should've known better - tired after fighting traffic

anyway with reference to
14:39 GMT January 15, 2004
& 19:25 GMT January 14, 2004
the winners are gaining

shorting GBPUSD breaking below 1.8340 & 1.8269 yields gross of 6 quarters
selling EURJPY within 134.50-134.80 almost near target of 132.50
buying USDCHF S/T reversal from 1.23 to 1.2340-75 zone yields a gross of 2 cents

time to power-nap if possible - laterz

ICT ML - you've got mail

nyc beyonding_destiny 08:27 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 08:22 GMT January 16, 2004

thanx, this one is golden pair of gold, also get a better look and range than aussie...very high interest , i trade very small amount for testing..:)

Brisbane L 08:26 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Japan is showing signs of making early preparations for the meeting of the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations by allowing the dollar to slide back under Y106.00 Friday.
newswires are saying

Moscow Hawk 08:25 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Monaco Oga, what level euro should fall to make you belevie you have seen the end of the uptrend or at least shift in mid term bias or it could only happen when you will see your long term target ? TIA

Brisbane L 08:22 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
nyc beyonding_destiny I dont, but watch it in relation to the Aussie and gold commodities etc

Just a little concerned over the drop though.

nyc beyonding_destiny 08:18 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 07:40 GMT January 16, 2004

do u trade ZAR? any comment on it?

hk ab 0.88 08:13 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Revdax, do you agree with the weekly reversal on eur?

hk ab 0.88 08:12 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
although my friend did some bad tricks on my account. But I think his call on the aggressive shorts were horribly right.

hk ab 0.88 08:11 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
and again, one more nice call from bc.

ICT ML 08:11 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
should be a stop avalanche down here on cable......lets get with it.

hk ab 0.88 08:09 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
pity that I have no guts to sell the hag.

now more nails on the coffin.

but I bet a nice bounce could be seen if the selling is severe today.

hk ab 0.88 08:07 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Revdax, I think those Japs people are repeating their "selling dlrjpy history in 2002 on eur/jpy", your opinions very welcome.

Just wonder why aud/jpy didn't follow......

postponed?


The ZAR is really horrible though.

Bangalore RKG 08:06 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
NYC, hope you could get in touch with Dr Vikrant. For WIW, pls see his today's views:
<< GBPUSD >>

Currency : GBPUSD


ENTRY: Sell below 1.8239 and expect 1.8196 ( � .0007 )-Support BPP.

HIGH RISK ENTRY: Sell below 1.8196 and expect 1.8151, 1.8102. BPP here / Watch carefully.
Maintain Shorts below 1.8095 and expect 1.8054,1.7969, 1.7887
***************** STOP LOSS ************************
STOPLOSS ENTRY: StopLoss / Stop and Reverse above 1.8253 BID and expect ( 1.8262 - 1.8296 Resistance ) BPP/Watch.
If the market still continues to rise hold for next higher up targets of 1.8341, 1.839, 1.8438, 1.8523 and higher
during rest of trading hours.

Ldn 08:00 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
HK el - it's the elliott wave theory - best you go out and buy books on it as explaining it here would take up the entire site! But along with the traditional indicators, elliott is a widely used technique, and has proved very successful.

MONACO OGA 07:59 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 16/01
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (Currently 1.2530), 130 pips lower than on yesterday opening. Just like yesterday, the pair broke through 1,2620 support in early europe on a related US sell order. Some better US CPI and retail sales sent the pair to 1,2560 in NY session. Overnight, the pair hovered above support at 1,2550 before breaking lower to current levels, where stops are supposed to have been triggered.For today, we an extension to 1,2470 before a sharp rebound to 1,2700. We still believe we have not seen the end of the uptrend yet, some technical pullback is much wellcome for consolidation purposes. Yesterday's european verbal interventions are finetuning, they no longer voice their concern of a high EURO but rather of the pace of the european unit appreciation. Long term target still is around 1,3500.

Data out today:
US bus inventories Nov expected 0,2% 13.30 GMT
US Capacity use Dec expected 75.9% 14.15 GMT
US ind prod M/M expected 0.4% 14.15 GMT
US Univ Michigan preliminary Jan expected 94 14.45 GMT

Gold around 407,00 , with WTI February at 33,58.

***JPY***
Usd/Jpy (currently 106,00), was rejected overnight at 106,50 before dipping earlier today to 105,70, the market testing again the BOJ resolve below 106,00. We are still neutral on the JPY market since we believe in a slow appreciation of the japanese unit, tempered from time to time by agressive selling of the BOJ, so the risk/reward ratio is not interesting enough.EUR/JPY (132,90) following EUR/USD price action. Important support zone around 132,40 with resistance at 134,70.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1.8190) Today we see a possible extention to 1,8100 before a retracement up to 1,8300.
EUR/GBP (0.68,95), as expected was rejected yesterday at 0.6930. We are looking to sell rallies and expect 0,6810 for the coming trading sessions.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

HK EL 07:55 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
hmmm I am sorry but can i ask what about that idiot wave thoery? how can that predict the move?

Brisbane 07:51 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
EURO wave 3 rally ended at 1.2899 and wave 4 decline now has a targets 1.2330.
Elliot Wave

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:50 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
look eur/usd candle for weekly.
if until new york close price still stay here and then make engulfing bearish...see down trend will come for eur/usd for several week, but now only wait to get confirmation weekly candle for the answer.

Kollam Treasurer 07:49 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
I said a few days aga that we have seen the near term high in cable - reiterating that, break now of 1.8180 should take us to 1.8075/1.8040 today itself. stop for short trades will be break of 1.8230

Melbourne Qindex 07:44 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:44 GMT January 16, 2004
EUR/AUD : The lower barrier of my daily cycle is expected at 1.6173 // 1.6220 and the upper barrier is located at 1.6314 // 1.6361.


... 1.6125, 1.6173 // 1.6220, 1.6267, 1.6314 // 1.6361 ...


Melbourne Qindex 08:14 GMT January 15, 2004
EUR/AUD : My 44-day cycle reference indicates that the market is bascially vibrating around the quantised level at 1.6411 with a magnitude of 152 pips, i.e. 1.6260 - 1.6563. A projected resistant level is positioning at 1.6687 - 1.6739 and a projected supporting level is expected at 1.5943 - 1.6035.

nyc 07:43 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
gold was telling that

ICT ML 07:41 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
if her majesty would just get past yestardays low....I'd be estatic:)

Brisbane L 07:40 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
S African Rand at ZAR7.41 slumping 25c since Wed afternoon weakest level since mid Sep. Foreign selling and the stronger dollar against the euro has pushed the rand through two important levels within 24 hours says a currency dealers

London MJM 07:39 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD new low 1.2520....

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:39 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
wow..seen price confidence to get 1.2507.

Vilnius george 07:38 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
i quess , boj is selling eur/usd to prevent usd/jpy from falling

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:37 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
ach.. get stp 1.2540.:-(
try buy again for recovery when touch 1.2530 (bid) for target 1.2580
with stp when touch 1.2526 (bid)

London MJM 07:36 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
As I said earlier 1.2500 USD/CHF touched now...

SA Bok 07:35 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
CT DB 07:28 - Buddy some thing is up here .. same story difficult to bottom pick , just as it was to top pick recently ..
GL mate

London MJM 07:34 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
We are trying 1.2540...........

mex sjs 07:33 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
shorted gbp at 1.8210 sl 1.8240 tgt 1.8115

ICT ML 07:32 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
YEEE HAAAA...next stop 1.2360!

mex sjs 07:29 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
shorting eur here at 1.2570 sl 1.2600, tgt1 1.2520 tgt 2 1.2480 GT

CT DB 07:28 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
mornin forum,

long euro at 1.2568 stops under 50. (fwiw)

GL & GT

Melbourne Qindex 07:28 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment  . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

London MJM 07:26 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
revdax// The high was 1.2470 and we are underway to try perhaps 1.2500.. looks toppish there..GL

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:26 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Revdax.
I am with you. top is at 1.2479 area.
sell here to get 1.2365 minimum with stp when touch 1.2490 bid.

hk revdax 07:22 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
FWIIW...we might have seen the top of $/CHF for today.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:21 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
LA saint3 when gbp/usd at 1.8221
this is my map forcasting.
I agree with INA co_z that have informed you support at 1.8180 and others expert forcaster here have informed too when I was flat yesterday about that level.
my map is like this :
price will up to get 1.8332 (top) and then go down again at 1.8265 before up again but where level that will get I still wait ..

London MJM 07:16 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD last low 1.2556....

ICT ML 07:16 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
candles are certainly hopping around right now.....you'd think there was a fire somewhere....LOL

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:12 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
be carefull for eur/usd when at 1.2560. this level is support area and price can go up to get 1.2700 for minimum target.
stp when touch bid 1.2540

Ina* mr.co'z 07:11 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:17 GMT January 16, 2004
Thanks Q...appreciated for your views...! gl...

Melbourne Qindex 07:11 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:11 GMT January 16, 2004
USD/CHF : The lower barrier of my daily cycle is positioning at 1.2368 // 1.2399 and the upper barrier is expected at 1.2554 // 1.2585.


... 1.2368 // 1.2399, 1.2430 - (1.2461) - 1.2492, 1.2523, 1.2554 // 1.2585 ...

hk revdax 07:10 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex//your 05:03 GMT January 16, 2004
USD/CHF : the current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 1.2341 - 1.2653.
=============================
Is that the range forecast for today?

London MJM 07:08 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi// Good morning here.. EUR/USD= Last weekend you stated 1.2746 -> 1.2540 -> 1.2445 -> 1.3170. Now seems that 1.2445 presently unlikely and possibly 1.2540 might be the trigger for higher levels (1.2900?). Where do you see now the trigger (low), if anything has changed? GL!

LA saint3 07:04 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
raden .. how about your view on gbp

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:02 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
LA saint 3.
I am here.
I have bought position at arround 412 and 408 now. I think 407.00 is bottom. Difficult to get 403 area.
I choose average strategy in this situation.
407.00 for long term above 430 and 408 for target 419
If touch 406 i will cut loss all.

Melbourne Qindex 06:57 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:57 GMT January 16, 2004
EUR/JPY : The trading reference of my 44-daycycle is as follow :-

... // 130.23* - 132.10 - 133.96* - 135.87 - 137.77* // ...



EUR/JPY : The lower barrier of my daily cycle is expected at 132.77 // 133.15 and the upper barrier is positioning at 133.92 // 134.29.

... 132.77 // 133.15 - (133.54) - 133.92 // 134.29 ...

hk revdax 06:53 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Lndn Frnd and sa//Yes, you can sell here and now. Only thy Lord knows where the top and bottom are of today.

nyc sa 06:50 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Revdax , why are u saying sell usd/chf st any price today ? do u have a target ? thnx .

nyc 06:45 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
gold is falling considerably since yesterday and start today selling too, so........gold down, euro down

Sydney2 06:42 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
nyc, which story? euro is going to fall?

Lndn Frnd 06:41 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 06:12 GMT
shall i sell here even at 1,2435 where is target pls

nyc 06:38 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
redvax, gold is telling me another story...........

London MJM 06:25 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
revdax// Good morning here.. Long time we did not get 'specials' from you.. I feel we must touch EUR/USD 1.2540/50 before we go higher.. Selling USD against CHF & EUR might be the right thing to do, if we see anything below 1.2540.. GL!

Melbourne Qindex 06:17 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Ina* mr.co'z 06:12 GMT - GBP/USD : If you are a day trader, a few pips above 1.8285 is okay to protect your short position.

Melbourne Qindex 06:15 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Ina* mr.co'z 06:12 GMT - I have posted my daily, weekly and 44-day cycle analyses on GBP/USD today.

hk revdax 06:12 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Today's Special(Jan 16)//Sell $/CHF at any price within today.

Ina* mr.co'z 06:12 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:32 GMT January 16, 2004
I'm sorry too...Q...! how bout cable ? tia !

Tasmania 05:43 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L WOW what a good trade that was ,problem was didnt see it coming Doh
wonder if anyone caught the move?

SF MB 05:40 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:32 GMT Thank you very much. I got it and follow your clearly recommendation.

Brisbane L 05:37 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Interesting thing happening around the ZAR its down 18% against the Dollar in past seven sessions as hedge funds unwind long South African bond positions profitable in terms of forex, capital appreciation in the past two years. Currencies of other major gold producers like the CAD & AUD likely to suffering as fund managers lock in profits in the next two weeks according to vary souces.

hk ab 0.88 05:36 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
bc, from your message, that means eur has to rise from here to 1.29 again.....

Melbourne Qindex 05:34 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : The market is trading above the upper barrier of my weekly cycle and a positive signal has been hoisted in my system.

USD/CAD : Weekly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 05:32 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
SF MB 05:16 GMT - The odds are in favour of taking short position. The best entry level is around 1.2700. the upper barrier of my daily cycle is positioning at 1.2672 // 1.2696. However we have seen some selling pressure around the weekly cycle quantised level at 1.2606. Therefore it is reasonable to guess that we may see the daily high in Asia time. If you are a position trader one can open a short position at the current level and place a few pips above the projected resistant level at 1.2643 - 1.2648. If you are a day trader, a few pips above the daily high is good enough to protect your short position.

SF MB 05:16 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Qindex 04:55 GMT Sorry for my stupid qestion. When you writeour range for EUR/USD 1.2511 - 1.2700 what does it meanfrom here? Short to 1.2511 or long to 1.2700? TIA

Perth AS 05:15 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Charts suggest pair in pullback stage of correction, may try lower levels ,below 0.7725-30, danger is test of downside Citigroup say in Asia.

FW CS 05:15 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Euro
Still think we will see 1.2850 - 1.29 first then an attack of 1.2557 fractal low if that doesnt hold then 1.19-1.20. Tonight is atacking that 1/8 fractal low. Looking to sell at slightly higher levels. A break above 1.29 then could get interesting on upside but looks unlikely at this point for much upside past 1.2850. $/Yen still looks SLOWLY on its way to 104-105.

Perth AS 05:12 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo broker say USD/JPY may lose support later today as 105.50 option barrier expires in New York time, leaving Japan MOF as sole big bidder in spot pair

Melbourne Qindex 05:11 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : The market is trying to penetrate through the lower barrier at 0.7685 // 0.7730.

AUD/USD : Weekly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 05:03 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : the current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 1.2341 - 1.2653.

USD/CHF : Weekly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 04:55 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 1.2511 - 1.2700.


EUR/USD : Weekly Cycle Charts

LA saint3 04:53 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
today is super quiet ..
where is raden and all ??

Melbourne Qindex 04:48 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:40 GMT January 14, 2004
GBP/USD : The current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle reference is 1.7978* - 1.8284* - 1.8590*. After expansion of expected trading ranges the trading reference is as follow :-

... // 1.7978* - 1.8131 - 1.8284* - 1.8437 - 1.8590* // ...

Melbourne Qindex 04:47 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is trying to penetrate through the lower barrier of my weekly cycle. Use the 44-day cycle for reference today.

GBP/USD : Weekly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 04:40 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : the trading reference of my 44-day cycle is as follow :-

... 1.1882* // 1.2009, 1.2136*, 1.2263, 1.2389*, 1.2516, 1.2643*, 1.2770 // 1.2897* ...

Melbourne Qindex 04:37 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:37 GMT January 16, 2004
EUR/USD : The lower barrier of my daily cycle is expected at 1.2454 // 1.2478 and the upper barrier is located at 1.2672 // 1.2696.


... 1.2454 // 1.2478, 1.2503, 1.2527 ... 1.2575, 1.2600 ... 1.2648, 1.2672 // 1.2696 ...

... 1.2454 // 1.2478, 1.2503, 1.2527, (1.2551), 1.2575, 1.2600, (1.2624), 1.2648, 1.2672 // 1.2696 ...


EUR/USD : the trading reference of my 44-day cycle is as follow :-

... 1.1882* // 1.2009, 1.2136*, 1.2263, 1.2389*, 1.2516, 1.2643, 1.2770 // 1.2897 ...


Melbourne Qindex 06:53 GMT January 13, 2004
EUR/USD The current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle is 1.2389 - 1.2897 and the mid-point reference is 1.2643. Projected supporting and resistant point is expected at 1.1882 and 1.3151 respectively.

dallas jej 04:37 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD- What a trend.In simple terms,I can easily see 81 or 82 this month. It will be interesting to see what happens here but tomorrow 78. I'm obviously long. So I see a different point of view.

Brisbane L 04:34 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Citigroup Smith Barney banking analyst Craig Williams shows NAB the biggest local player in options market in 2003. NAB last year held "outstanding currency derivative exposures with a notional value of A$253 billion, compared with A$177.8 billion for Westpac, A$26.86 billion for ANZ, A$35.3 billion for CBA
The Age newspaper

Lhe Rrb 04:34 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Qindex... I hope you are doing fine....

Please all are requested for any update on new iraqi dinar... tia

Brisbane L 04:22 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

BOND-MARKET GURU Bill Gross Mr. Gross, one of the world's most influential money managers, is spending a lot of time these days discussing how best to prepare. "We're inching toward that point," says Mr. Gross, who oversees $350 billion in bonds and similar assets at Pacific Investment Management Co., better known as Pimco. What is clear is that interest rates are likely to go up soon. While a weak jobs report recently pushed the yield on the 10-year Treasury note down to about 4%, many people believe a strong economy will push rates up by the end of the year. When rates start rising, it won't be pretty for millions of investors who poured their savings into bonds after the stock-market bubble burst.
When the Fed last cut rates, in late June, Mr. Gross viewed the move as a sign that bond-friendly rate cuts were ending. It was the 13th time the Fed had lowered its target short-term rate since 2001, but the size of the cut was smaller than expected. "This was as close to ringing a bell as it gets," Mr. Gross says. He immediately sold "several billions" of dollars in bonds. The biggest concern for Pimco is U.S. monetary policy. The Fed, traditionally most sensitive to inflation, has lately been too preoccupied with the possibility of deflation to fight inflation aggressively, Mr. McCulley tells the group over lunch in November. Fed officials "are fixated" on preventing the kind of deflation that hobbled Japan's economy over the last 10 years, Mr. Gross says. "They're `reflationists.' "
"Bingo," responds Mr. McCulley.
Mr. Gross asks if anyone disagrees. The room is silent

Sydney Ge11Ja 04:22 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
el thats too hard for me to answer, i dont know your risk apetite etc...... I have a stight stop at 0.7733 as i see this as a short term trade.

Melbourne Qindex 04:20 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Lhe Rrb 04:18 GMT - I only follow the the market price movement.

Lhe Rrb 04:18 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi Qinex...
Any comments on new iraqi dinar... gl n gt

Lhe Rrb 04:17 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi Qinex...
Any comments on new iraqi dinar... gl n gt

Melbourne Qindex 04:10 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Ga Lee 02:29 GMT - We need to do promotion from time to time.

Brisbane L 04:03 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Aussie has been a hard one to pick its up mainly cos its giving better rates than most , the thing to watch is when other Central Banks start to hike and the RBA may have to reduce given slow down in economy further out , talk today the Aussie gov bonds the way to go with other countries having to catch up with rate hikes while Aussie is cutting or holding ,but again ( who knows )

HK EL 03:58 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
i just sold 2 lots of aud at 0.7708 wht stops should i place then?

Sydney Ge11Ja 03:52 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
el

in my opinion because there has been a lot of real selling this last week, euro lower, gold and commodities lower, better figures from US, Govt acknowledging currency a problem, RBA selling 1.6 billion AUD last month, AUD/YEN toppish,mkt long and mainly because I am short......

HK EL 03:50 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Forget to say thanks ge11J

LAX-LGB SNP 03:49 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
many thanks for your time, Shanghai BC

HK EL 03:49 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
I know now. But the question remain is why it should be lower not upper....

Sydney Ge11Ja 03:47 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
In a nutshell if you see someone post a strike ie AUD 0.7700 it means that the market will trade around that level until expiry this is (very) basically because the buyers of the 0.7700 calls will be selling above 0.7700 and the sellers of the calls will be buying below 0.7700, after expiry this will stop and the market will be free to move to where it wants which for I believe is lower

make any sense?

HK EL 03:42 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Again....what is the option story..Can anyone help briefly explain this?

Sydney Ge11Ja 03:34 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
HK el

If you think the option story is real and it is a Tokyo cut, then the AUD should trade lower after 3:00 PM Tokyo time. I am looking for a test towards 0.7650 myself.

HK EL 03:26 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Anyone think AUD worth a sell now?

HK EL 03:24 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks both of you.

NYC YIPPEE 03:18 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
HK EL 02:54 GMT January 16, 2004

There is no simple answer to that question I am affraid. The one quality of an option book (Which is hard for the average day trader to swallow) is that you are able to profit by being long gamma (You are positioned for a move regardless of the direction of the move up or down).

Brisbane L 03:06 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
HK EL
would appreciate a more qualified option trader to answer your question as my answer would probably be too basic.
I dont want to misguide you.

HK EL 02:54 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Bristane L I am new. Can you help explaining how option affect the forex market. Thanks in advance.

Brisbane L 02:52 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Friday options >JPY105.00,50-JPY 106.00 -105.8-109.8 DNT -
EUR 1.2325 -EUR 1.2570 -EUR1.2650-CHF 1.2650 ,55-AUD 0.7700-AUD 0.7550
TODAY.

dallas jej 02:49 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
I think gbp/jpy looks weak.Is there a reason to be long?

Ina* mr.co'z 02:41 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Morning Friends !!....

Brisbane L 02:34 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Hearing caution after big dip overnight on Gold with some fear long liquidation from speculative players will continue short term testing of $400 also traders say physical customers are staying out of market altogether Friday, anticipating lower prices in coming days. FWIW.

Ga Lee 02:29 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, you give away alot here, a real charitable soul to be sure..

Brisbane L 02:15 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc - ummm yes , understand no one ringing the bell when to get on board (Pity) problem is with ths type of market we dont get a break because nobody knows where it going next (smile) I suppose only the privileged few with the most bucks to throw at it.

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:08 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
196.58 is possible today as well if i am correct.

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:58 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
I'm taking up a small GBP/JPY long @ 193.59 and adding at 193.06 towards 194.04.

hope it works out.

any comments are well appreciated.

TIA.

shanghai bc 01:50 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   


QINDEX -- Good morning..Good forecasts and trades..

L -- Good morning..Gold and Aud are likely to dance to the tune of Eur/Usd as well,three of them being the main hedger against Dollar for the last two years..Gold moves a bit earlier among the three musketeers though..It is likely to correct towards somewhere between 100 day sma and 250 day sma in this round before bulls regroup again for another high later..For exact levels of those three musketeers,it is the market bias or trend at a given time that matters,not the levels..Imho..Good trades..

brisbane 01:50 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
GUANGZHOU, China (AP)--World Health Organization investigators found "good evidence" to suggest that animals play a role in SARS, uncovering traces of the virus in the restaurant where a patient worked and civet cats were served, the team's leader said Friday.

But Dr. Robert Breiman also said SARS should not be considered an immediate public health threat in China - a reassurance pivotal in its timing, days before hundreds of millions of people begin traveling around the country for the Chinese New Year.

Sydney Ge11Ja 01:49 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
AUD looks heavy again, notwithstanding the option expiry at 0.7700.... break of 0.7690-95 targets 0.7650 where we should reassess.

lot of selling this past week with not a huge amount of fresh buying suggests it might have further to go to clean out weak longs

Eilat Dolphin 01:36 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Some big Japenese financial shot was just quoted on sexo saying that the US guys are rather happy with a weak $. FWIW.

Brisbane L 01:28 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc hi BC and thanks for he other day, just would like to know how you see the AUD also for the next move . many thanks.

Melbourne Qindex 01:26 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : the market is under pressure if it is trading below 1.8267 - 1.8283.

Melbourne Qindex 01:25 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : the market is underpressure if it is trading below 1.8267 - 1.8283.

Melbourne Qindex 01:25 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 01:21 GMT - Good morning and good trades!

shanghai bc 01:21 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   

Eur/Usd correction is just beginning..If one has to fine tune it,it is likely to rise towards 1.29 one more time from around 20 day sma,then sold hard towards 1.20 again..A preferred short-term strategy is still sell on bounce for several weeks at least for sub-1.20 target before Euro bulls regroup again for another move towards 1.30 and above..Imho..

hk ab 0.88 01:16 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
nk, fwiw, I set back that eur long plan.

hk ab 0.88 01:14 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
It's all thanks to Mr. W to put the nail on the eur/jpy.
Jap Investors know what they should do.

hk ab 0.88 01:12 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
it would be the fight between eur bulls defenders and the exporters from japan today.

hk ab 0.88 01:09 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
mike, I prepared to add but not at here.

I see someone is pressing the crosses hard, don't want to fight with them.

Melbourne Qindex 01:09 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 00:52 GMT - EUR/USD : The key is this week when the market hit 1.2899 on Monday.

Melbourne Qindex 06:53 GMT January 13, 2004
EUR/USD The current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle is 1.2389 - 1.2897 and the mid-point reference is 1.2643. Projected supporting and resistant point is expected at 1.1882 and 1.3151 respectively.

Gen dk 01:08 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
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sf mike 01:07 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
ab, why did you exit. I thought the trade ws for siz months. You're breaking my confidence, I was preparing to add.

Mtl Ash 01:06 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Well, to my question about $CAD, here's what forexnews's Ashraf Laidi said at 4PM EST (I guess):

USDCAD peaked to our second resistance level of 1.2990. A breach above it is seen contained within the 1.3035 resistance. Key pressure remains imposed at 1.3055-60. Support starts at 1.2865-70 backed by 1.2820 and 1.2770

hk ab 0.88 01:00 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
exit the dlr/jpy longs (missed this morning) at here for 32 pips altogether, reload later

hk ab 0.88 00:57 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, are you still holding eur/jpy short from 136.98?

Melbourne Qindex 00:55 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:54 GMT January 16, 2004
GBP/USD (ajusted) : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.8129 // 1.8175 ... 1.8267* ... 1.8359 // 1.8406 ...


... 1.8129 // 1.8175, (1.8221), 1.8267*, (1.8313), 1.8359 // 1.8406 ...

hk ab 0.88 00:55 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
all depends on the coffin.....

hk ab 0.88 00:52 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, what do you think about the possiblity of a key week reversal on eur?

Mtl Ash 00:47 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone tell where'll the pair $CAD go given the resistance at 1.2970 did hold? Thanks.

brisbane sunstate 00:38 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 00:20
Yes thanks raden I am well for now, long cable and euro this morning so time will tell but moved stops to break even so can't loose
gt gl

Melbourne Qindex 00:34 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:34 GMT January 16, 2004
GBP/USD : The critical point of my daily cycle is located at 1.8283. The lower barrier is expected at 1.8126 // 1.8157 and the upper barrier is located at 1.8377 // 1.8409.


... 1.8126 // 1.8157, 1.8189, 1.8221 ... 1.8283 ... 1.8346, 1.8377 // 1.8409 ...


...1.8126 // 1.8157, 1.8189, 1.8221, (1.8252), 1.8283, (1.8315), 1.8346, 1.8377 // 1.8409 ...


Melbourne Qindex 11:40 GMT January 14, 2004
GBP/USD : The current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle reference is 1.7978* - 1.8284* - 1.8590*. After expansion of expected trading ranges the trading reference is as follow :-

... // 1.7978* - 1.8131 - 1.8284* - 1.8437 - 1.8590* // ...

hk ab 0.88 00:23 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 23:24 GMT January 15, 2004
Good evening gents,

hk ab 0.88 23:12 GMT what caused the "100" barrier to be fully broken?

I cant remember off hand.

Thks


To tell you the truth, I was jsut a high school student then.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 00:20 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
sunsite brisbane,
i am fine. thanks.
I hope you are too.

Melbourne Qindex 00:16 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:15 GMT January 16, 2004
AUD/USD : As shown in my daily cycle charts the market is going to trade between 0.7700 - 0.7724 initially in Asia time. The critical point of my daily cycle is located at 0.7700. The upper barrier is positioning at 0.7749 // 0.774 and the lower barrier is expected at 0.7650 // 0.7675.


... 0.7650 // 0.7675, 0.7700*, 0.7724, 0.7749 // 0.7774 ...


Melbourne Qindex 00:03 GMT January 14, 2004
AUD/USD : My 44-day cycle reference suggest that the market is going to vibrate around the quantised level at 0.7665 with a magnitude of +/- 154 pips, i.e. 0.7511* - 0.7665* - 0.7818*. The trading reference is as follow after expansion of the expected trading ranges :-

... // 0.7511* - 0.7588 - 0.7665 * - 0.7742 - 0.7818* // ...

brisbane sunstate 00:14 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
good morning Raden how are you today

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 00:03 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
good morning !!

Brisbane L 00:00 GMT January 16, 2004 Reply   
aussie profits being booked ,market now getting ready for the G7 meeting, which could end with call for more concerted currency intervention.