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Forex Forum Archive for 01/18/2004

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Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 23:34 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
I mean like this :
good morning !!
pips opportunity..eur/usd
sell here at 1.2381 for target profit 1.2350 only.
my new system say that.

Brisbane L 23:33 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
Aust firm shares in $1b Iraq contract
Australian engineering firm Worley is sharing in a $1 billion contract to help rebuild Iraqi oil infrastructure.

Worley Group provides consulting and support services in the mining, energy and chemical industries.
ABC news

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 23:33 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
good morning !!
pips oportinity..eur/usd
sell here at 1.2381 for target profit 1.2750 only.
my new syetem say that.

Brisbane L 23:28 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
Australian consumer sentiment, surges 5.6 points in January to 126.0 points, a level 16.4 points higher than January average. Strong rise attributed to New Year sales by major retailers. Indicator in line with more watched Westpac consumer sentiment index, which also rose in January, as consumers reflected robust domestic economy
AP

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 23:17 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
nt, still holding aud short from .7777?

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 23:14 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
though my aud/gbp is still losing, I am tempted to add to the shorts at here.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 23:10 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
my focus this week will be on the crosses, after big moves in majors, crosses come the next week very often.

short eur/gbp .6925, long eur/chf 1.5625 and aud/nzd longs from 1.1465 are still open.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 23:09 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
US soldiers suffered so much on Sunday and chf has no reaction at all, it tells you all needed.

Btw, I felt full sympathy to those who are still working in IRAQ. Wish them leave the hxxx soon.

Brisbane L 23:05 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
hk ab thanks , problem when someone does that forum doent take him seriously, was a pity he initially went on without a name . oh well.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 22:57 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
aud got a flu from aud/jpy.

Japs are smacking the aud down daily this month.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 22:56 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
but, yeah, felt his call is dxxn right!!! F him that he didn't tell me earlier.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 22:55 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
L, it's his choice, I don't know.

he is not a hk guy btw. He works in one of the Canadian banks. I was a bit surprised of his act last week.

anyhow, thoguht he just got crazy.

Melbourne Qindex 22:48 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Brisbane L 22:45 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
hk ab just curious, why doesnt your friend Drop register on here him/herself seems ashame as made some good calls last week.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 22:25 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 19:38 GMT January 18, 2004
For the next few weeks I think it is going to be whipsaws-r-us with a lower bias gradually falling to the 1.1970/00 support. I see some euro bulls buying here but the market moving lower still. At around 1.1750 dollar bulls will be calling for a trend reversal and then we go for 1.35-1.40 with these dollar bulls caught short euros.

At 1.35-1.40 I think the big players will get that rate cut they have been wanting by the ECB and make those nice capital gains on the eurobonds they bought up. Then time for dollar buying to start yet again except this time the trend is indeed reversing and US rates well higher than euroland for many years to come. Well that's my analysis for 2004.



BB, the 2nd part may come up sooner rather than later. However, think 1.40 is too remote if the bounce come from 1.2.

1.3 is more promising target.

Miami OMIL 22:23 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
ML I hope you had a good weekend. You are right there should be a correction on the way with stochs oversold this move could slow down for a breather with the holiday coming up on Monday too. This might be a good bounce but we have to be careful it can also be a dead cat bounce. Right now the strategy is to sell on resistance failures or fib retracement failures. For mid term traders it is time to unload some positions and reload on better position IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Bristol Stag 22:22 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:1 - message sent. Tks

Melbourne Qindex 22:21 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 22:16 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
Bristol Stag 22:12 GMT - Can you send him another e-mail again. Usually he can arrange it right away. Send me an e-mail if you want to see any particular pair of currency in a hurry.

ICT ML 22:14 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
well, since euro didn't bounce hard off 1.2350 area Friday and climb in NY afternoon, it looks like it hsa farther to fall. I thought it would biunce pretty good myself...but was wrong. We'll just have to see how 1.2350 holds this session and in London to see if it has any life left right now. But most euro bulls have to be thinking this level is a huge bargain to reload longs I would think......

Bristol Stag 22:12 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
Dr C - Qindex, I messaged Jay GVI for registration to your service on Friday. Yet to receive a reply.

Melbourne Qindex 22:07 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD & GBP/USD  Weekly Cycle Analyses . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Nassau QF 22:04 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
Is the US market open tomorrow or are they closed for MLK day?

Mtl JP 21:24 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy 18:51 / Of course not: "On Wall Street, bonuses will be up 20 to 30 percent from last year, according to industry experts. Alan G. Hevesi, the New York state comptroller, recently said he expects Wall Street bonuses to total $10.7 billion for 2003, an average of $66,800 per employee.

But for hourly workers elsewhere, average wages last year rose by 26 cents, or 1.7 percent, the Labor Department said last week." ... "The Dow Jones industrial average rose 25 percent in 2003, a boon to those with investments. At the same time, consumer debt such as credit cards and auto loans hit a record $1.98 trillion in October, $18,700 per household, the Federal Reserve reported this month. The number of past-due credit card accounts rose to an all-time high of 4.09 percent from July through September, according to the American Bankers Association."... msnbc Link

Warsaw bass4 20:52 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
The EUR decline on friday was too strong ....I think eur/usd will go up on monday....and next we'll see

Gaza Ibiza 20:36 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
Wow thats ultra cool! So anyone can get a new car! thats great!

Bangkok EB 20:21 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
Yes Gaza the car thing is true.

Gaza Ibiza 20:07 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 18:51 GMT January 18, 2004
What gave you the impression the US wants a strong dollar? Why should the Fed intervene?
What makes you think FX rates is the primary thing in the mind of the Fed?
How do you come to the conclusion that wall street is doing well because of weaker dollar? Are they really doing well?
Why would the ECB want to turn this trend around? Here? After all they spent so much time trying to create a strong currency?
Just curious ...would appreciate your insight?

JHB SA 20:04 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
Yebo,all, long time not on the forum.Anybody know of a web where I can get info on Dubai? Maps etc.Gotta go there 4 bus.in a few day/s time? Thanx.GL.GT.

LA saint3 19:51 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
HI all ..
the market starts moving again now!

USA Biscuit Boy 19:38 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
For the next few weeks I think it is going to be whipsaws-r-us with a lower bias gradually falling to the 1.1970/00 support. I see some euro bulls buying here but the market moving lower still. At around 1.1750 dollar bulls will be calling for a trend reversal and then we go for 1.35-1.40 with these dollar bulls caught short euros.

At 1.35-1.40 I think the big players will get that rate cut they have been wanting by the ECB and make those nice capital gains on the eurobonds they bought up. Then time for dollar buying to start yet again except this time the trend is indeed reversing and US rates well higher than euroland for many years to come. Well that's my analysis for 2004.

Longmeadow JSB 18:57 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
Surely market makers meet early in the morning at the beginning of the week to determine what their prices are going to be. I would be surprised if they gauged their decisions on headlines alone. They can't make a decision on price with a blank 48 hour period. Regardless of volume they must have a way measure the weekend market.

USA Biscuit Boy 18:51 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
Athens I think it is also helpful to compare this situation to that of when the BOE wanted a strong pound but refused to raise rates. The US claims they want a strong dollar but still won't raise rates. Even if they truly meant it by keeping interest rates so low they would not get their wishes. Plus unlike the BOE they are not intervening at all and this is the biggest tell in the world they are in fact happy with the dollars decline regardless of what they say.

Wall St is also enjoying the increased earnings because of the low dollar and your average voter is not going to be displeased with that either eh?

There may even be a little enjoyment by the Bush administration over the fretting european authorities. They didn't want to help in Iraq and now the Fed and Treasury aren't going to help out with this situation.

I think it is too late for the ECB to turrn this trend by themselves. They do need a hand but the US doesn't seem willing just yet.

Athens 17:58 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
A couple of paragraphs from Trendways analysis this week on the big picture. A much lengthier and detailed analysis and technical levels are discussed on Trendways Weekend Analysis:

"As I said earlier, the underlying long term Dollar downtrend is still in place. Could last week's action be the beginning of a major trend reversal? Looking at past history one could argue that this is possible. Long term trends don't usually extend beyond a 2-2 1/2 year period although extra long term ones can extend to 5 and even 7 years, but in the latter case there are very long interim periods of long term consolidation. Therefore, even if we are in such a case of an extra long term trend, there is a high probability that a trend which has already led to a Dollar depreciation (if you prefer call it a EUR appreciation) by 55% (since 0.82-0.83) and lasting 2 1/2 years (second major EUR/$ bottom in July 2001) may enter a very broad consolidation period now. With this in mind let us however also look at certain parameters which I personally am expecting to play a major role as well and these I am going to discuss in the next paragraph.

First, we must keep in mind that this is an election year in the US and, no doubt, over and above all Bush will have only one target, namely his re-election. To have a better chance to be re-elected, he mst make sure that the employment picture improves. Unemployed voters are never friendly... Obviously, if employment doesn't pick up substantially the Fed will stick to its extremely low interest rate policy much longer and this will indirectly keep the pressure on the Dollar. In addition, direct pressure on the currency will continue through "benign neglect" by the US Administration in an effort to get even higher exports and lower imports (the latest trade figures showed some progress there). These elements certainly show that US Dollar policy is to change dramatically any time soon. The second worrisome point has to do with typical market long term psychology. As I have repeatedly said, long term strong trends rarely turn without some form of concerted CB action. The ECB people may have felt relief following last week's big correction but the oldest and more experienced among them surely know that sooner or later the market will most likely test their resolve to limit the EUR appreciation beyond certain levels. Until they put the money on the table and also get some help from other CB's and especially the Fed, they stand no chance in the future."

USA Biscuit Boy 16:58 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
You are right jf there isn't enough liquidity around for that size order. Well maybe at 50 pip spread lol! The max I think they do is 10 million but that is still way beyond my size. If did trade that big then I would setup to trade straight thru to EBS. One day soon I am hoping.....

dc fxq 16:52 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 16:18 GMT

I noticed the add's when I log in earlier today.

Oh and uh, I think there may be others coming. Would like EURCAD for personal taste.

sarasota jf 16:48 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
biscuitboy go and ask your broker for a price in 100 mio eur - then he will say sorry we just in here early checking orders - no mkt till nz open

Ina- mr.co'z 16:38 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
hahaha...believe it or not, we just see wait. I use the TELE RATE BRIDGE to see price in Global of Money Market. And in this time I see there is offer for the price of Euro in 1.2335,1.2155.....huh !
what this real correct there is offering bank?
But forget it maybe just wrong quotes !

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 16:37 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
I have lowest of 1.215X levels on eur/usd thru this week-end,big drop frm close at 1.239X levels at week close...whoops!
TIA:-)

USA Biscuit Boy 16:36 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
I wish interbank was the market for most of us Spotforex. Unfortunately we do not get to trade in that market (yet).

For those that know what broker I go thru they just added HUF, THB, SAR and HKD to the platform. Very nice indeedy!

Spotforex NY 16:18 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
EBS and the interbank IS the market!!!! The Middle Eastern banks may be open as their 'weekend' is on Thursday and Friday according my old frinds at a Saudi Bank....My understanding is that quote widen out a great deal and trading is limited.....

But I guess FX is always opened. I just sent some funds to Brazil on Saturday at the retail rate of 2.80 (interbank bid is 2.8200ish)..so trades can be done.....

but from my insitutional days when I left big orders with the MAJOR G-7 banks...there were 'at risk' until the New Zealand open ( early NY Sunday afternoon)....

USA Biscuit Boy 16:03 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
FWIW Euro has dropped 12 pips so far over the weekend at my broker. Obviously price does not move on EBS or Reuters as no bank trading desks are open on the weekend. But as there is no central exchange for forex I fail to see why people think there are distinct opening and closing times for this market. EBS and Reuters certainly account for the vast majority of volume and liquidity but they are not the be all and end all for this market. GL and GT all :)

Stockholm za 14:00 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
fwiw.......
My :- " Stockholm za 20:48 GMT January 16, 2004 "post was meant to be a JOKE......even so that the leveles may have been realistic at that time….
THE MARKET IS CLOSE ON WEEK END….

Attention should be paid to ATHENS :-

"Athens 21:57 GMT January 17, 2004
There is NO price change during weekeds. The market can sometimes open with a gap n a Sunday evening due to an extraordinary financial, political or other event BUT prices DON'T move during weekends. Clear, full stop."
AND STOP...

Have a nice day......


HK [email protected] 08:38 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
I want to relate to a simple calcu. which served as a reasonable warning.

HK [email protected] 14:14 GMT January 2, 2004
EUR

"Since 1990 looking for extreme price differences(B4 reversals) from the 250WKLY/Sma One may find (in pips) values as;

2586
2415
2835

The last deviation 2774 pips of the max 1.2648 to the present 250WkMa compared to the prev. ones as Ref. should be taken no less seriously than the current fundamentals. "

Today With a hindsight to last week.
Taking this simple criteria there were two weeks-time for bail.

From the 250Wkly Ma to the last maxima ([email protected])1.2896-0.9892=== 3000PIPS. Quite a bit of stretch.

For all the above strong deviations from that average there was a Ret. back to the average...Today near parity.
Is there anyone though hard to ignore the fundamentals, who thinks that at most we may get another close maxima before moving to near parity???

Athens 07:45 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
Det tm 06:55, it isn't a matter of having banks in at least two different countries since we often see banks in the same country moving the market during weekdays. I can also bring as an example banking in the Middle East where baks are open on Saturday and trade the local currency. They also offering prices to their customers but volumes (when it comes to international currency pairs) are so small (quotes are good only for small commercial transactions) that they can't move the global market. Having said that, I can't be sure what the effect will be when China floats its currency, however my best guess is that the current status won't change.

Det tm 06:55 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
Athens 21:57 GMT January 17, 2004

Since Chinese banks are open 365 days a year, do you think that when the remnimbi finally does float, that this will produce some volitile gaps on Sun. evening?

As a follow up (rookie) question, do you see that changing? Even though it takes open banks in two countries to search for percieved value on a pair would this be thought to be an inordinant advantage?

London MJM 06:55 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi// I agree with a previous poster (Athens) that the move above 1.2840 was an 'aberration' and the fast move close to 1.2350 was too an 'aberrration'. (Expect this 'pendulum' move to continue with decreasing intervals [narrowing ranges] until we resume the trend). GL!

indonesia solo raden_masandi 06:51 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
HK B.
[email protected]

HK B 06:46 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
indonesia solo raden_masandi , do you have personal e-mail that i can contact you? :)

London MJM 06:34 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi// Thks.. and have a nice Sunday! GL for this coming week..

indonesia solo raden_masandi 05:16 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
Ldn MJM,
below messages for you.

indonesia solo raden_masandi 05:15 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
especially eur/usd
in maximal for 3 weeks price will be under selling pressure to get weekly candle corection.my scenario like this :
if on Monday price not make lower again that's mean price will get 1.2210, better wait at 1.2640 for sell (maximal thursday), but for Friday if 1.2640 not yet be get and 1.2210 not yet be get too, better change your waiting level at 1.2690 for sell.

If on Monday price make lower again..better wait at 1.2210 for buy to get 1.2500 area with stp at 1.2200 (bid). Price seen very potential to get 1.1837 again as bottom.

there is 3 alternatives bottom to get 1.3170 :
1.2210 (buy here with stp at 1.2200)
1.1837 (buy here with stp at 1.1820)
buy at 1.1393 with stp at 1.18380
buy at 1.1194 with stp at 1.1180 (bid).

that's about long term map (if posible price get that numbers you can do that map).
for daily trade for get that.. better look hourly chart only and I will running with my new system model (I think better than before ), but I only talk about entry level to get high probability of floating profit only (not about target )

London MJM 04:39 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi// Good morning here.. EUR/USD closed on Friday at 1.2390.. You had a scenario where it wld bounce at about 1.2445 towards a target of 1.3170, but we went much lower.. What scenario do you see for this week, if I may ask?

indonesia solo raden_masandi 04:23 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
good afternoon !!

saihat 03:27 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
i see these last

eurusd 1.2226
eurgbp 0.6802
eurchf 1.5464

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 03:24 GMT January 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:37 GMT January 17, 2004

Dr. Q,
As soon as my current subscription expires,i am going for that 12 month subscription.I have somehow forgotten when my current subscription expires,LOL!
Thanks for your help and great going friend.Keep up the ood work.

TIA:-)

 




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