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Forex Forum Archive for 01/19/2004

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Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 23:50 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
good morning !!

Ldn 23:42 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Market yearns for moment of truth in fictitious trades affair
LINK
Comments in the market that the current leadership team is responsible for the $4 billion HomeSide loss are also only partially correct.

Cicutto and his colleagues did not appreciate that the HomeSide mortgage-writing business was turning into a loss-making time bomb as US interest rates fell, and home owners refinanced at lower rates

Melbourne Qindex 23:36 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:25 GMT January 19, 2004
AUD/USD : The current expected trading range from my monthly cycle is 0.7420 - 0.7631 and the mid-point reference is 0.7525.

Brisbane L 23:35 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
SYDNEY (AP)--Australia's conservative government and opposition Labor Party are neck and neck going into a federal election year, according to a poll published Tuesday.

Melbourne Qindex 23:35 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 08:17 GMT January 19, 2004
AUD/USD : As sown in my 3-day cycle charts the market is negative after it has hit 0.7567 and fails to overcome the barrier at 0.7604 // 0.7641.


... 0.7493, 0.7530, (0.7567), 0.7604 // 0.7641, 0.7677 // 0.7714 ...

Brisbane 23:33 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Latest Poll Shows Australia Govt,Labor Party In Dead Heat

Brisbane L 23:32 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
AUD talk of selling orders around the 0.7560 level short-term support around 0.7510 in focus. This level is the 61.8% fibo of the 0.7325/0.7815 move, and a break below bearish

sarasota jf 23:26 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
ab - gd morning
aud/nzd drop - i hope you were trading with real money and not just a demo

as for usdyen the boj is committed to holding it above 105 and they place some bids at higher levels so alot depends on yen cross as to how high is possible for usdyen topside - perosnally gbp and eur are much more interesting
gt

Brisbane 23:24 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Home lending hit by interest rate rises

http://afr.com/articles/2004/01/19/1074360697989.html
Home buyers have started to lose their appetite for new borrowing in a sign that interest rate rises are now restraining the country's long-running housing boom.

Housing finance commitments fell 3.9 per cent in November, the same month that the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates for the first time in 16 months.

This followed a revised 1.3 per cent decline in lending commitments in October, providing some relief for Reserve Bank governor Ian Macfarlane, who warned in November that credit growth of more than 20 per cent a year was inconsistent with long-term economic stability.

Sydney Ge11Ja 23:16 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
sarasota

my point is that I think it is interesting that usd/yen managed to rally yesterday without intervention (i havent heard any mention of BOJ buying usd/yen yesterday) maybe mkt finally got short?

maybe potential to rally further to 108.50

Brisbane 23:14 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
E.U. finance ministers may have expressed dissatisfaction with USD weakness but this doesn't mean they're hugely worried about where EUR/USD is now: "The debate is really overestimated," said Austrian Finance Minister Grasser before meeting; over past decade, and even before EUR introduced, "if you look at the history of the euro-dollar exchange rate, it's been around $1.20 over the last 30 years." Added Belgian counterpart Reynders: "we don't have anything to worry about unless the euro goes over 1.30." Other ministers didn't comment on EUR at all; some talked up Eurozone economy reuters

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 23:11 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy vulunerable.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 23:10 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
btw, exit all the aud/cad short here at .9825

from 1.0000 and .99.

sarasota jf 23:10 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja 21:57 GMT January 19, 2004
????

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 23:10 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
where are all the eur bulls?

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 23:09 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
take 1 short at 107.30

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 23:08 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
dlr/jpy is still weak and struggling to the north direction

Melbourne Qindex 22:54 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : the next targeting trading range is 0.7420 - 0.7493.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 22:52 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
add new shorts to eur/gbp .6925

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 22:49 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
aud and nzd DROP 14:45 GMT January 15, 2004
aud shorts.
0.7765 x 20 lots
0.7745 x 10 lots
0.7722 x 10 lots

nzd shorts
0.6753 x 10 lots.

All are open.

aud and nzd DROP 14:38 GMT January 15, 2004
The sweating guy sweats more!



Hm... looks like horrible.

Brisbane L 22:48 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Hamas Leader Says Era Of Female Bombers Has Begun

very sad that

Melbourne Qindex 22:42 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Ldn 22:05 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Just out in FT:

US holds best cards in dealing with dollar
Alan Beattie Jan 19 2004 20:48
It is always the quietest poker player who holds the best hand. And in the early rounds of bidding in the currency game, ahead of the meeting of the Group of Seven finance ministers in Florida next month, the impassive face of the Americans reveals what a powerful position they are in.
A rising babble of complaint has come from the European and Japanese sides of the table about the pressure the rapidly falling dollar has put on their economies. The talk seemed to have some effect last week, at least in Europe, reversing some of the euro's sharp rise against the dollar.
But it has come with no help from the US, which has stuck imperturbably to its familiar rhetoric. Last week John Snow, the Treasury secretary, reiterated that he was in favour of a strong dollar and that currency values were best set by the markets. European officials say they have also encountered stiff US resistance in private to using the G7 communiqué to imply that the dollar had gone too far, too fast.
And given what happened at the last G7 meeting in Dubai, the US can make a strong argument that there is no reason to embark on an experiment in managing exchange rates.
Unlike the 1985 Plaza Accord, an explicit agreement to bring down the dollar against a range of currencies, the innovation in Dubai was a seemingly innocuous sentence calling in vague terms for currency flexibility. Rather than a general statement about the dollar, the statement was widely interpreted as a thinly veiled attempt to put pressure on China and other Asian countries to stop holding down their currencies.
Given that the British Treasury and the Japanese finance ministry immediately disputed that the statement marked a policy change, the subsequent market reaction surprised even seasoned veterans of the international economics circuit. One senior IMF official the next day paused by the flat-screen wall-mounted TVs in the Dubai conference centre and watched with raised eyebrows as charts flared across the screens showing the dollar shooting lower against the euro and the yen. Both at Dubai and afterwards, the US argued strongly that the "agenda for growth", a laundry-list of pledges for structural reform, was the most important part of the G7 communiqué.
Although the US has made little headway with its own promise - tort reform to prevent businesses being burdened by frivolous lawsuits - it can argue that it is the failure of European economies to deregulate faster as promised, not the strong euro, that is the real threat to the eurozone economy.
Medley Global Advisors, the well-connected political and economic consultancy, recently sent a note to clients saying that the US would use the Dubai commitments to argue that it was Europe and Japan, not the US, that had to act.
"Rather than retreat from Dubai, the US will press to hold each of the G7 member countries to the commitments made," said the note, the contents of which were reported to the FT.
Medley declined to comment.
Central banks outside the US, particularly the European Central Bank, may also feel the pressure. "Interest rate cuts from the other central banks will likely be touted as the best way to achieve domestic stimulus in the short run," the Medley note said.
Disingenuous though it appears to those who think the US is secretly massaging the dollar rate down, the fact that the Dubai communiqué contained no explicit currency management gives the Americans a perfect argument against changing it. John Lipsky, chief economist at JP Morgan in New York, says there is no justification for the G7 to start managing currencies, especially since the trade-weighted dollar is nowhere near the extreme valuations it got to before the Plaza Accord.
"For the G7 to take responsibility for halting a movement they never endorsed would seem odd," he says. Nor, he argues, has currency adjustment obviously disturbed domestic economies or financial markets.
This latter claim echoes the few US officials who have been talking in depth about the dollar - not the Treasury, which holds responsibility for currency policy, but the Federal Reserve, which confines its observations to the dollar's effect on the economy.
Alan Greenspan, Fed chairman, speaking in Berlin last week, chose to reiterate almost word for word an address he gave late last year saying there were few signs of market or economic distress as a result of the dollar's fall.
The best the Europeans and Japanese can hope for out of the G7 seems to be some bland words about the need for stability in markets, which may help at least to slow down any further fall in the dollar. Those would be meagre winnings to show for a long trip to Florida.
But for the moment, the US holds by far the best cards.

Porto Azarento 22:02 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
buy gbp/usd 1.7829 /stop profit at 1.7880

Sydney Ge11Ja 21:57 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Has there been any mention of intervention in usd/yen last 24 hours??? if no intervention then usd/yen looks quite bullish for 108.50..... if it is able to rally on its own then we might get a period of usd buying

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 21:57 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
the selling pressure of the majors are definitely consistent from a group of players. And you can see the daily candle is showing a "one way" direction now. Interested to find that many longs were accrued during this down spike.Let's see what kind of avalanche it will eventually develop.

SF Augustus 21:39 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Come to think of it, Dollar/Yen really hasn't benefited much from this recent correction, and with Florida on the horizon perhaps being Long dollar is more prudent at this time? Comments?

LAX-LGB SNP 21:38 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
with ref to 09:46 GMT January 19, 2004

buying EURCHF ahead of 1.566x topped out 30 bps in early NYC
shorting GBPCHF in the 2.272x yielded 3 quarters

unable to enter GBPJPY since price is still within neutral zone
also unable to long $CAD ahead of 1.296x since price missed entry levels

P.S. Thanks Chief - though GV's FXTrek charts are still tickin

Colo Chief1Oar 21:37 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 21:23 GMT January 19, 2004
anyone having any problems with DealSmart/Metaquotes cha
rts ?

Admiral Inv is closed for the day, my charts are working but no input/trading is allowed until 00:00 GMT.

Chief

LAX-LGB SNP 21:23 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
anyone having any problems with DealSmart/Metaquotes charts ?

SF Augustus 21:19 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
anyone thinking of shorting this USD/JPY for a few pips- playin calulated chicken with BOJ? R/R there with decent stop?
GT

Rivonia PipPirate 19:19 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
London RX 18:26 Dallas in wonderland

London RX 18:26 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas is in Texas ha ha ha

Atlanta 18:25 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
could anyone tell me where is Dallas?
10x

San Juan Lil 16:41 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Mtl, thanks a lot...

Mtl Ash 16:39 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
San Juan Lil: This is from Forexnews.com.

1/20/2004 9:00:00 AM CA Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision 2.50% 2.75%

Va Raven 16:38 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
That is a new discovery.......(?)

Nassau QF 16:38 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Sheesh.
Cable is so low now but I still don't want to take a chance yet.

Anyone have plans as to what price you will buy at?

Brisbane 16:35 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
US Federal Reserve's overnight interest rate target is at a 45-year low of 1 per cent, 4.25 percentage points less than the cash rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Analysts said the interest rate differential may slow the decline of the Australian dollar.

"The domestic and interest rate story still remains positive for the currency so I don't think sentiment will turn against the Australian dollar," said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in Sydney.

He said investors should buy when the dollar fell toward US75c.

Bill Mooney, chief dealer of spot foreign exchange at SG Australia, said the bank's customers from outside Australia had been the main sellers of the currency.

"We are now seeing a little bit of consolidation in the Australian dollar rather than the one-way bet which it's effectively been since December," Mr Mooney said. "But even a fall of two or three cents is not going to change the fundamental picture."

Mr Mooney said he expected the RBA to raise interest rates early next month and the currency to strengthen.

Australian government bonds were lower after US consumer sentiment rose to its highest since November 2000 - a sign exports, which comprise a fifth of the Australian economy, may pick up.

Bloomberg


San Juan Lil 16:34 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone!

Could someone please post at what time is the Canadian interest rate decision coming out tomorrow??

TIA and happy trades to all!!

Gen dk 16:22 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Nassau QF 16:21 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Hopefully, I'll catch the rebound on the Euro and GBP :)

Nassau QF 16:20 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
It's the year of the Monkey.
I need some luck and prosperity :)

Eilat Dolphin 15:50 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
I totally ignore the length and strength of the actual $ correction, but in the last years, it is obvious that none lasted less than two weeks, some did ten; and adding to that the big picture:Trichet, the OB, the rate of climb etc, I definitely wouldn't short it nowadays agaist no one.

usa monster 15:41 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
hi all
its for my friend from indonesia

Eilat Dolphin 15:36 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
LM/ When it'll get to a stop and reverse, It shouldn't take another day to see the same level, and close the week even lower, imo.

usa tt 15:30 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta 15:19 GMT January 19,
i am raden secertary
first take appointment from mee
then ask

Tel Aviv LM 15:25 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Guys
please your opinion for the SUD/NZD

beijing road 15:22 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven : wo, wise man, right! Thanks.

Va Raven 15:21 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Why do you think it's not a safe trade and trade it anyway, beijing road?

Atlanta 15:19 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Hi friends, I have not seen you for a long time

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi

whats ur view on beast & eurusd?
10x

Brisbane 15:19 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Market focus very much on risk Ecofin criticizes EUR strength

beijing road 15:15 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Just opened EUR/JPY long position this afternoon. I think it is not safe trade and placed very tight stoploss (33pips at 132.20). Any view on this pair pls? thanks.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:11 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
CU...
today is nice..
all of pairs give me floating profit.espesially thanks for 1.2411 for eur/usd high and usd./jpy too (100 pips)

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 15:04 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
how something shoots up, how sth snaps down........

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 14:53 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
be careful of the roll off of the option at .7550 and .75.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:52 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
sorry.. i mean like this ( sleepy here..LOL)
now.. focuse on exit for BEP for sell at 1.2367 area and sell at 1.2411 will be hold (hope get sell at top and will be hold).

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 14:51 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
look at that aud/nzd...
eyeing 1.18 now.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:51 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
now.. focuse on exit for BEP for sell at 1.2367 area and sell at 1.4011 will be hold (hope get sell at top and will be hold).

Dublin Flip 14:50 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
sorry viies I've been out for a while (thanks to the muted markets with the MLK holiday in US).
Mate I'm sure there are plenty of nervous euro buyers around. After the last two years I'd say they have all been prescribed tranquilizers. I'd say they feel a bit better than they did last monday though -LOL. As I said I'm not sure if that was a major top or whether we are just stepping up the volatilty for an even bigger move higher but it's safe to assume we have a much more evenly risked market than most were banking on.

What I've been noticing though is the lack of Plan B for any of the on-screen punters/analysts/techheads. When techies start basing their counts and chart reads on what they have read in economics 101 in the sunday papers I get a little worrried. FX doesn't always make sense it's just flows. Simplistic economics don't always drive this market and so when we have strange incongourous correlations like +8.2 GDP, enormous debt and a yet bond market rally you know it doesn't always package neatly together. Just keeping the options open.
Two week wise I'm very bearish the anti-dollars and look for Euro to test 1.21 and ozz .7250
cheers

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:49 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
I mean to SA Bok.
yes.. I think we are get missunderstanding.
first view sell at 1.2367 and at 1.4011 still sell again (+/- 40 pips?). I say that because I feel must update and guide until get floating profit. always..give info follow my signal.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:47 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF 14:06 GMT January 19, 2004
yes.. I think we are get missunderstanding.
first view sell at 1.2367 and at 1.4011 still sell again (+/- 40 pips?). I say that because I feel must update and guide until get floating profit. always..give info follow my signal.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 14:47 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
all the crosses are moving with the expected direction except aud/gbp.

Gen dk 14:41 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Miami OMIL 14:41 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Mark approximate numbers for gbp/usd on fib retracement from 1hr chart is 1.7975-70, 1.8010-15 and 1.8050-55. There is a small resistance at 1.7935-40 area. Resistance is now at 1.8095-1.8100 and 1.8160-65. This retracement for the dollar will take cable down to 1.7820-15, 1.7580-75 and 1.7340-35. Mid term players are buying dollars anytime they see a chance IMHO. (/;-> GT

SA Bok 14:41 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi - My friend I do not understand 1.4011 is the high end (16 big fig from market) and you suggest sell for 40 pips .. PLEASE excuse me but please explain ?

14:10 GMT January 19, 2004
still no info change of signal.
1.4011 is the end of high in my signal. still on the sell signal.
hope will be right. I still no suggest buy, but suggest for sell although by averaging in 40 pips.

Kaunas DP 14:28 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
who thw censored is placing 1.79 sell for beast

Nottingham 14:27 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF 14:06 GMT

Agree with Indonesian frnd...pair now trading inside 2% band and while can argue it can go all the way to test band, it does not have to be the case, as opposed to the fact that it will trade outside the 2% band for only a handful of days a year and if you can pick it up outside this range then almost classed as free money...gl gt

Nassau QF 14:25 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone see a bottom on Euro yet then?
1.22?
Lower?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:23 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF 14:06 GMT January 19, 2004
yes.. they are brave. but they have passed. LOL

prague mark 14:19 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
OMIL
what numbers u have on cable
TIA

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:17 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
SA Bok.
for all.
I talk especially eur/usd.
be carefull in this situation price can move down suddenly.

Miami OMIL 14:16 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
FWIW the dollar is still in a correction period so sell eur/usd on failures to break fib retracement or resistance levels. Fib retracement from last dip is 1.2414, 1.2434 and 1.2454. Resistance at the moment is 1.2490-95 and 1.2545-50 IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Bucharest Razvan 14:16 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Hello my friends!

I'm back from a way overextended holiday :)

Happy trades to all!

SA Bok 14:13 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:10 - Sorry which currency pair is that ? TIA

Helsinki iw 14:12 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Got to leave early as it is getting dark here, but also running
short NOK/SEK for medium term. Looking a bit better than
last week, as there seems to be a cluster of sellers at 9,18++
now in EUR/SEK. EUR/NOk needs to break 8,65 to gain mom-
entum. IMHO

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:10 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
still no info change of signal.
1.4011 is the end of high in my signal. still on the sell signal.
hope will be right. I still no suggest buy, but suggest for sell although by averaging in 40 pips.

Tallinn viies 14:07 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Im not saying that my clients will buy the euro up. Im just saying that if our client base acting like that then it must be the same everywhere because the info customers are using is mostly the same.
it is kind of idea behind it like IMM is mini world of FX. imo

Nassau QF 14:06 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Anyone else brave/crazy enough to go long Euro?

Helsinki iw 13:53 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Yes viies, good job of cross-border selling you have done,
as I checked up the Tallinn stock exchange I noted there are
just 7 listed companies there. Would be interesting to know
what base those huge buyers have, but I guess that is privi-
ledged info.

Anyway my two cents ride pretty much with Athens, I too
see 1,2310/20 as a strong level and the market oversold so
I expect it to hold for now. If it were to break we could see
1,2080/90 or even 1,1970/80, but I think that is unlikely.

Fully expect that the top for this trend is yet to be seen, but
we might take some time to form an intermediate bottom
above 1,20. IMHO

Tol Ant 13:31 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Bull trand last yet 2 years, mb it not the end, but seems
eur got too much overvalued

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:20 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
ramat 13:03 GMT January 19, 2004
about stp depend on the trade style. each people maybe different.
I only focuse on the signal and will do for cut loss if have given change signal. Focuse on the get floating profit.
position will be hold until get change info.

Tallinn viies 13:19 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Tol Ant 13:08 GMT - it doesnt end in a month. to end the trend it takes at least a year

Tallinn viies 13:11 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw 12:37 - in Europe

Tol Ant 13:08 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 10:27 GMT January 19, 2004
slv sam 09:58 - ahhhahaha. you got to be drunk :)
1,14 is more 10% down from the open of the year.
never happens on bullmarket imho

Bullmarket, has to end sometime, this is the begining
of the bearmarket or a consolidation

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:06 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
still no have change info.
againts..this movement.

ramat 13:03 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
hello raden
what are your sl on euro cable and aud
tia

Brisbane L 12:50 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
A upside break of 1.2395 calls for test of 1.2440,even 1.2562 before the downside is revisited on the Euro SocGen

Gen dk 12:43 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Helsinki iw 12:37 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
What country are those companies based in viies?

Tallinn viies 12:31 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 12:27 - and we talking about selling dollars cashflow for the year. huge amountssss

Melbourne Qindex 12:28 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Tallinn viies 12:27 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 11:59 -yep. but let me just say that I have hunderds of clients who would be happy to buy the euro uder 1,2000. they are very nervous you know.

Dublin Flip 12:26 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
No jack8 certainly not at the moment. I just never say never. I'm just keeping the plans a bit flexible at the moment. I have been very USD bearish for a long time but I think we have more two-way risk for the forseeable future. Europe have plenty of problems to work through and have already taken a disproportinate amount of the USD weakness. I think 1.10/1.35 was the big defining range and all we have done it reverse the BS of the strong dollar period. I think we should have some more erratic noise for a while as the conditions for a wholesale USD selloff into hyperspace just aren't there. US assets have been well supported and Alan and Ben have put another rocket under the USD bond market to keep both of them firing. Somewhere down the track things will change but for the moment the FX market is all on it's own and therefore currently unsustainable.
here I see euro as neutral but loooking horrid on the charts. No one will want to short it now so I expect more downside probing and selling on rallies for a few weeks if not months to come.

Brisbane L 12:24 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Austria's Finance Minister Grasser 'does not see why anyone should be
worried about the strength of the euro'
Reuters

Stockholm za 12:18 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
CHF/JPY >> at the moment...
Hourly P ~ 8426/34
Hourly Ra ~ 8521-:-8347
ema [ 89+144 ]- 5 = ??

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:17 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
hey.. until now.. I still not yet get different information from my system.

TLN jack8 12:10 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Flip, you don't see eur going down that low?

Perth AS 12:07 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD, NZD/USD testing key supports at 0.7570 and 0.6580 ANZ's Craig Ferguson says momentum oversold favors a bounce from current levels.

Dublin Flip 11:59 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
re Tallinn viies 10:27 GMT January 19, 2004
slv sam 09:58 - ahhhahaha. you got to be drunk :)
1,14 is more 10% down from the open of the year.
never happens on bullmarket imho

In the middle of the Bob Rubin's "strong dollar policy" years the USD still managed an against trend sell off in 1998-ironically due to the misplaced impending euro-phoria launch which had Asian CBs diversifying out of USD. It closed down only 7.8% (1.0870 to 1.1720) but it was down 13.5% (1.2315) at one point in Oct 98. Point being, an assumption of perrenial trend advancement without a pause or even a painful "crisis of faith" is not impossible but an unlikely eventuality.

Melbourne Qindex 11:59 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/CHF : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:55 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
IMO.. aud/usd at 0.7567 is the edn of chance for sell. seen start..from here.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:46 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
seen I must forget about 1.7937 as opportunity floating profit from there. seen..now is nice for start.(1.7867)

Bratislava MB 11:43 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
concerning euro

Melbourne Qindex 11:42 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 11:42 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:41 GMT January 19, 2004
GBP/JPY : the current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle reference is 188.81* - 192.52*.

Melbourne Qindex 11:52 GMT January 16, 2004
GBP/JPY : The trading reference of my 44-day is as follow :-

... // 188.81* - 190.67 - 192.52* - 194.37 - 196.22* // ...

Bratislava MB 11:41 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Commenting before the meeting and Tuesday's full Ecofin meeting, Austrian Finance Minister Karl-Heinz Grasser said he did not expect EU finance ministers to express concern.

Ldn 11:36 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD Rate Won't Hamper Recovery - Stark

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:35 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Cairo MDR 11:28 GMT January 19, 2004
I will inform here if get change of pressure (buy signal).
now my base analysis is 5 minutes chart and offcourse for daily trade. step..by step.. ya..

Ina- mr.co'z 11:35 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
resistance eur/usd 1.2385 - support 1.2305..imo ..gl/gt..

Ina- mr.co'z 11:35 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
resistance eur/usd 1.2385 - support 1.2305..imo ..gl/gt..

Isle of Wight DHE 11:34 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:27 GMT January 19, 2004
thx. I am in @132.58 - I think the target though is maybe enthusiatic - 131.70 -80 looks like a significant short term support.

Cairo MDR 11:28 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi
what is ur target and stop on the eur sell
tia

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:27 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
if you still no selling eur/usd..this is end of chance at 1.2361.
good.. (IMO)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:21 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Isle of Wight DHE 11:04 GMT January 19, 2004
it's time for sell eur/jpy at 132.55 (top area) before go to 131.20. don't be late. :-)

Melbourne Qindex 11:20 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:11 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
nyc beyonding_destiny 11:03 GMT January 19, 2004

1.7798

Now I am focuse on timing and wait until market give me change pressure information.

Ina- mr.co'z 11:09 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
support cable at 1.7740 ! imo.. gl/gt..

Melbourne Qindex 11:09 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Isle of Wight DHE 11:04 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
anyone have any strong views on selling EUR/YEN @132.70 t/l resistance looks strong. TIA

nyc beyonding_destiny 11:03 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:56 GMT January 19, 2004


what's ur T/P of cable sell? S/L ...thanx...

melbourne farmacia 11:02 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 09:48 GMT January 19, 2004
This Gbp/Usd is one sick dog with 1.7711 calling.

Gen dk 10:59 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:56 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
my syetem say.. there are many opportunity of floating profit.
eur/usd when at 1.2367...sell
gbp/usd when at 1.7878....sell
usd/jpy when at 106.19 ... buy
aud/usd when at 0.7577 ..sell

start..

Melbourne Qindex 10:55 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP : The current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle reference is 0.6871 - 0.6933.


Melbourne Qindex 21:59 GMT January 12, 2004
EUR/GBP : Once the market can penetrate through the barrier at 0.6826 - 0.6871, the long term target at 0.6723 - 0.6746 will be challenged.

slv sam 10:49 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
buying $/y here at 107.08 can be rewarding IMHO.GT

Port Louis YH 10:44 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi 09:51 GMT

LOL . But it's no joke! Hope you are making lot of money and LOL ? Yes I can agree for that at least...

slv sam 10:44 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 10:40 GMT /
i would say May! same month when 10 countries with 10 different economies are integrating..let us see! GT

Lahore Rk 10:43 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Typo .. cause i and o key is near----any way LOL

:) ;)

Thanks for correcting me

GL/GT

Brisbane. L 10:43 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Will the FX markets also be closed in NY today .

van Gecko 10:41 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham.. '2 pint screamers' are found in all professions.. its in our nature to go with the path of least resistance.. the market need more king bees to act like little bees for liquidity..
good trades..

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:40 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
LAHRE RK 10:33 GMT January 19, 2004
I mean to you. LOL ..LOL..

hk revdax 10:40 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi //Euro bottom has been seen for today...imo. Look at the obvious RSI div between today and that of last Friday. Even Athens was talking about the o/b state of $.

Tallinn viies 10:40 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 10:37 GMT - soon? what do you mean by that?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:39 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Port Louis YH 09:38 GMT January 19, 2004
g-7 monsters ???? mean gozzila?. ???? :-))
LOL..LOL...LOL..

slv sam 10:37 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 10:27 /
why not! euro appreciation in the last two years was not because the euro was strong..many factors contributed..US$ depreciation was absorbed mainly by the newly born WEAK euro..this IMHO is going to change this year..1.14 is very possible and soon!GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:36 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
kaunas and port louis
top of gbp/usd today is at 1.8022
bottom area eur/usd seen first bottom at 1.2300
or 1.2215

GoldCost th 10:35 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
W.A wayne ... Been on this forum for a few years now ..It amuses me to watch wankers like you come and go ...Obviously you have torn up your rent money .you poor sad censored...

Dublin Flip 10:35 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Yeah I think he's finished with Mrs (or is is mister) Wayne
Thanks for the heads up buddy.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:33 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
opportunity sell gbp/usd at 1.7930
and usd/chf buy at 1.2675

LAHRE RK 10:33 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
The time for the Statement from G-7 finance monsters

Tia

GL/Gt

Melbourne Qindex 10:33 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:20 GMT January 19, 2004
EUR/AUD : My daily cycle charts indicate that the market is strong and it is now trading above the upper barrier of my daily cycle.

... 1.6087 // 1.6117, 1.6147, 1.6178, (1.6208), 1.6238 // 1.6269, (1.6299), 1.6329, 1.6360 ... 1.6420, 1.6451 ...


EUR/AUD : The trading reference of 44-day cycle indicates that the market has a good potential to tackle the upper barrier at 1.6563 // 1.6739.


... 1.6035 // 1.6211, 1.6387, 1.6563 // 1.6739 ...


Melbourne Qindex 08:14 GMT January 15, 2004
EUR/AUD : My 44-day cycle reference indicates that the market is bascially vibrating around the quantised level at 1.6411 with a magnitude of 152 pips, i.e. 1.6260 - 1.6563. A projected resistant level is positioning at 1.6687 - 1.6739 and a projected supporting level is expected at 1.5943 - 1.6035.

Port Louis YH 10:31 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi

Eur/Usd move down to what region, please?

Kaunas DP 10:30 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi
where would be your top mirror for cable as of today
TIA

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:29 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd at 1.2367
it's time for move down. there is opportunity from here.

Lahore Rk 10:28 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Anyone knows the G-7 meeting and statement


Tia

GL/GT

Port Louis YH 10:28 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Would be interested to know if anyone on this forum is making a decent living trading Forex ? Or are not the majority still working their jobs and are testing the ground(like me)?
I have subscribe to get trading alerts, but it does not get enough good alerts to get off the ground?
Anyone has a way to make decent money in this field could tell if any source has proved(eaten a good pudding) to be very consistant and more than 60% of good trades??
After all aren't we here to help each other?
Thanks

Tallinn viies 10:27 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 09:58 - ahhhahaha. you got to be drunk :)
1,14 is more 10% down from the open of the year.
never happens on bullmarket imho

Nottingham 10:14 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 10:09 GMT:

With so much negative comment about I wouldn't be surprised to see 1.2560/80 tested this week...but at that point everyone would probably start talking about 1.30 again...like bees jumping from flower to flower gl gt

Port Louis YH 10:13 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi 09:51 GMT

thanks I am staying put on my buy to get 1.2475 today. I hope because US economy and political situation not so good, and Euro seems to have upper hand....

Tallinn viies 10:11 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
good day all.

what a move?
got rid of 40 pips on friday. now will start to look at buying opportunities again.
1,2300/1,2340 huge support area.

van Gecko 10:09 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
vely close to a euro blip when everyone is letting it all hang out.. however, any substantial bounces should still be greeted with a 'thank you vely much' by Sons of Beatrice & anxious BOOB'pers..
cheerios

Belgrade Knez 10:03 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   

Go to this yahoo messenger chat room: [email protected]
guy is excellent.

Brisbane 09:58 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
ln you rude slob, and dont even have the guts to post your name shame on you

slv sam 09:58 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
euro could sink to 1.14 level if bad news started to come out of europe.just a feeling!GT

Helsinki iw 09:56 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
That guy must be the best sales person for the professional
side I´ve come across.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:54 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
SA Bok,
post is received by "Ras Maden". LOL
still be looked.

Athens 09:52 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Thanks guys. London, glad to hear you made a profit. Anyway, I am out of here now. Good luck all.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:51 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Port Louis YH 09:38 GMT January 19, 2004
to get 1.2500 still not yet buy signal here.
I think 1.2215 still valid for bottom ( maybe for today) but if usd/chf get 1.2784 and eur/usd still not yet get 1.2215 maybe Eur/usd will move up again from there, but only pullback only.
all time frame still for sell signal now.

LAX-LGB SNP 09:49 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Athens Adam - thanks for your weekend view
P.S. the PF offers better R/R ratio than the FF ;-)

saratoga sam 09:48 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Wayne go back to "waynes world" clearly thats where you belong...

london 09:48 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Adam, Cheers for your input last week, I made a bundle

ICT ML 09:48 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
another possible cable bear flag pole in making like Fridays, this time target is 1.7720

Ldn Cashman 09:48 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Wayne. Bit touchy eh... Fair sign you've had a good run lately

hk revdax 09:47 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Athens//$/CHF has just hit its 50 day ma...fwiiw.

london 09:47 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Adam, Ignore all the idiots, they don't sound like happy bunnies, keep up the great work, how many good calls have they made?

LAX-LGB SNP 09:46 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
decent R/R scenarios are also represented by

longing $CAD ahead of 1.296x
shorting GBPJPY once it closes below 189.3x - price is trading ahead of neutral zone (yet)
however GBPCHF has jumped the gun by staying below 2.275x
also, expecting EURCHF to stay bid as long 1.566x can hold

Edi Geo 09:45 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
wayne...you're surname kerr by any chance?

ln 09:42 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Cashman. WAKE UP!!! Smell that Starbucks.

Athens 09:41 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Revdax, long USD until last week, playing short term short now at these heavily O/B levels.

nyc beyonding_destiny 09:39 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Load Cable...1.785 is max of downside...

cb jc 09:38 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
kaunas... its buy the facts not the news..good trades to you.

Port Louis YH 09:38 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi, Could you please throw some light in the contradictatory opinions I have seen since market opening today about Eur??
do you think eur/usd will reverse to the 1.2500 level in this day trading... and if not what is expected bottom level it will reach today?

Gen dk 09:37 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LAX-LGB SNP 09:37 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
still long on $ since Wed and watching $ chf trying to close higher and gbp $ dipping early
eurjpy trying to break out of the trough ... will consider adding if price can close below 132.50

hk revdax 09:37 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Athens//So you are basically short $, if i could understand you correctly.

Kaunas DP 09:35 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
arent we playing cable - sell the rumors buy the news - looking into tomorrows data and day after tomorror BOE minutes

Nottingham 09:33 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Athens 09:30 GMT:

agree...major retracement level...hope to long at 1.232x

re aussie...think it has a lot going for it fundamental so people shy away from shorting/lots of willing buyers about

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:32 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd
0.7494
still on the sell signal

Athens 09:30 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/$ 1.2310-20 is quite a hard level fot many tech reasons.

Melbourne Qindex 09:29 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:55 GMT January 19, 2004
EUR/USD : 3-Days Cycle Quantised Levels


... 1.2068 // 1.2162, 1.2256, 1.2350, 1.2445, 1.2539 // 1.2633 ...

Melbourne Qindex 07:47 GMT January 19, 2004
EUR/USD : It is negative when the market is rejected from the barrier at 1.2404 // 1.2465.

Melbourne Qindex 07:39 GMT January 19, 2004
EUR/USD : The current expected trading range from my 3-day cycle is 1.2350 - 1.2445. The trading reference after expansion is as follow :-

... 1.2256* ... // 1.2350* - 1.2374 - 1.2398 - (1.2422) - 1.2445* // ... 1.2539 ...

ICT ML 09:29 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
SAM...that was my thought too...hence this slow moving Aussie possie I am hacked off aout..LOL..her majesty left it in the dust again

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:28 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd
1.2215-10

Melbourne Qindex 09:28 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 08:17 GMT January 19, 2004
AUD/USD : As sown in my 3-day cycle charts the market is negative after it has hit 0.7567 and fails to overcome the barrier at 0.7604 // 0.7641.


... 0.7493, 0.7530, (0.7567), 0.7604 // 0.7641, 0.7677 // 0.7714 ...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:27 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd
also 1.7633

slv sam 09:27 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
good morning all! hope most of us are making money in this predictable market.

slv sam 10:01 GMT January 15, 2004
AUD/$ yet to drop to .7450 IMHO then i am ready to long!GT

Melbourne Qindex 09:27 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:04 GMT January 19, 2004
Spot Gold : My 5-day cycle charts indicate that the market is going to trade between 402.6 - 410. Projected supporting and resistant point is expected at 395.2 and 413.7 respectively.

Spot Gold : The upper barrier of my daily cycle is positioning at 410.8 // 412.6 and the lower barrier is expected at 403.6 // 405.4.


... 403.6 // 405.4, 407.2, 409, 410.8 // 412.6 ...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:26 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd
1.7798

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:24 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf 1.2845

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:24 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy.
107.84

ICT ML 09:23 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
this stupid slow asss Aussie short has good margin $$$ tied up that could be put into better use aka...more cable shorts.....irritating choice I made

Melbourne Qindex 09:23 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : the following reference is still good :-

Melbourne Qindex 04:40 GMT January 16, 2004
EUR/USD : the trading reference of my 44-day cycle is as follow :-

... 1.1882* // 1.2009, 1.2136*, 1.2263, (1.2389*, 1.2516, 1.2643*, 1.2770 // 1.2897*) ...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:22 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy and gbp/usd get floating profit ya !
still not yet get buy signal for gbp/usd.
still not yet get sell signal for usd/jpy

Cairo MDR 09:18 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
good morning
is thier any thing new with European finance ministers meeting today in Brussels ?
any comments please
TIA

Melbourne Qindex 09:17 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:21 GMT January 18, 2004
GBP/USD : My monthly cycle charts indicates that the market is heading towards 1.7758. A projected resistant point is positioning at 1.8105.

Athens 09:17 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
The $/CHF contra (short) at the high 1.26's is a typical case of those I call "a profit or money back". Even if it overshoots more, the entry level should be soon seen again and again. According to my estimations, this should be good for at least another 48 hours. Good luck.

Kollam Treasurer 09:14 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Euro and Cable likely to find little difficulty in the current downmoves. Cable likely to test 1.7845 and euro to test 1.2285 in another 3 hours' time.

Stockholm za 09:04 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
CHF/JPY>>> Today...
8632-8580
8528-8512
8443
8375-8358
8306-8254
Key on ~8322
~8295 Klip
True-- 8739-:-8191
Happy Trades to all....
ps..Sorry for the inconvenience cause over the WE...... lol

Brisbane L 09:02 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: Belgian PM Sees No Real Problem In Current FX Rate

shanghai bc 08:57 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   

AB -- If you are a short-term player,a preferred strategy is still selling Eur/usd and Aud/usd on bounce till the short-term bias is up again in a few weeks' time..

SA Bok 08:32 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 08:21 - .. I am not at all the best techic here by far .. so comments appreciated .. lets see .GL to all

Melbourne Qindex 08:31 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment  . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hk ab 0.88 08:31 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 06:33 GMT January 19, 2004


Thanks bc.
So, we should still buy on dips on this round of aud and eur weakness.

Nottingham 08:21 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
SA Bok 08:12:

Your comments re sellers in control look accurate but euro is trading is more than 2% below 10 day sma which currently comes in at 1.2692...historically the pair has on occasion overshot below/above this band (last Novemeber by nearly 100 pips following the break above 1.1860) but has always returned to the normal within a few days

MONACO OGA 08:17 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Please disregard the "data out today" information, something went wrong with my files...
Today we only get EZ trade balance for November at 11.00 gmt
Regards,
Olivier

Melbourne Qindex 08:17 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

SA Bok 08:12 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD - Quick blip to 1.2420 , then sellers , same AUD above .7600 , GBP 1.8000 and CHF 1.2635 ... seems dead cat bounce and short term positions takers are the sellers ...

Interesting is the USDJPY seems to me for first time in long time real buyers of USD besides the BOJ ...

Any thoughts or comments appreciated .. Thank you appreciate

GL all

ldn 08:11 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
LME Copper Surges To New High

SA Bok 08:04 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
London trader - Received GBP 30 000 000 bonus - see story

www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/66882/1/.html

Well Done this man .. maybe you could post some trade ideas on this forum so us rug rats can earn some pennies ... LOL

Melbourne Qindex 08:04 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:25 GMT January 19, 2004
AUD/USD : The current expected trading range from my monthly cycle is 0.7420 - 0.7631 and the mid-point reference is 0.7525.

MONACO OGA 08:02 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 19/01
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (Currently 1.2410), 150 pips lower than on Friday opening. The pair accelerated on the downside once 1,2550 support broke. Some much better US data sent the pair to next supportive zone around 1,2350 (low 1,2350). Overnight the pair consolidated above this level. For today, with the US closed, 1,2350 should provide enough support for a rebound to 1,2490 and maybe 1,2570. Crucial support zone stands at 1,2310-30, penetration of latter level implies a new medium term target at 1,1970. However, we still believe in the uptrend yet, the pullback so far has been technical and does not endanger the move. Long term target still is around 1,3500.

Data out today:
Ger GDP Dec expected -0,1% 08.00 GMT
Euro zone GDP Q3 expected 0.4% 11.00 GMT
US Consumer Price Index Dec expected 0.2% 13.30 GMT
US CPI ex food/energy Dec expected 0.1% 13.30 GMT
US advanced retail sales Dec expected 0.4% 13.30 GMT
US initial jobless claims expected 350K 13.30 GMT

Gold around 408,50 , with WTI February at 35,16.

***JPY***
Usd/Jpy (currently 106,75), benefitted from USD recovery on friday and stopped a few pips away from 107,00 before closing around 106,75, the market is currently trapped inbetween selling pressure and fear of another round of BOJ intervention at 106,00-10. New support currently stands at 106,30 while resistance should emerge at 107,00.EUR/JPY (132,40) followed EUR/USD price action and rebounded on important 131,70 support. Trading range for today : 131,70-133,50.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1.8000) printed 1,7935 on panic selling friday. We expect the pair to rebound today and to test 1,8120 resistance.
EUR/GBP (0.6890), is currently trapped inside 0,6875-0,6930 range. We still favour the downside for the coming trading sessions.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Bandung Icha 07:59 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Hi all !! i got support for gbp/usd at 1.7900....with my intraday resistance at 1.8045 if a break 1.8020..but i was shorted at 1.8018.., any comment please?...

SA Bok 07:44 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Ras Maden you have mail ...

Melbourne Qindex 07:40 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

HK [email protected] 07:16 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
If big institutions will keep on buying American debt instruments is it in the direction of the fundamentals???
Fundamentals are affecting on long term, so for few weeks we can get a contrary wave to get a push up later.

Sydney2 07:11 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Based on the large correction of euro during last few days, I feel that this minor correction may stop here since the fundamental still works.

HK [email protected] 07:07 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
I like to estimate that this downtrend of the Euro may last about 1 to 1&1/2 month. The euro bulls-in-doubt will increase with time so for the long term, Terra-Firma will have to be checked B4 any upmove.
I spent sometime on the chart E/$, and there is a nice support concentration near 1.14 area for the time being.

1) 200Monthly-Ma.= 1.1439

2) 250Daily-Ma. = 1.1457

3) A minima On the present trend at=== 1.1374

The Ma. are changing and may come nearer to 1.1375 to form an interesting support zone. Well we are still 1000Pips afar, so it is only for long term reference. GL/GT

Melbourne Qindex 07:05 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

SA Bok 07:02 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
If 21 ma and 5 ma cross on Hourlies , possible to see 1.2470 area ... IMVHO ... GL all

Brisbane L 06:54 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc yes got to watch that later, and the election thanks BC again

shanghai bc 06:51 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   

L -- Aud/usd is likely to dance to Eur/Usd tune in terms of cycle,short-term or medium-term..But Aud is likely to lose some support this year when China's demand for commodities slows considerably in coming months making Aud less bouncy one than last year..

melbourne farmacia 06:40 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
And Rafe - u have mail.

Brisbane L 06:40 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia thanks just saw you post - was looking for that level but needed it confirmed by a pro.

Brisbane L 06:38 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc hi bc sorry to sound like a broken record but AUD ?
just spoke to my broker who says "I have no idea"
thats great isnt it !!

melbourne farmacia 06:37 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 03:30 GMT January 19, 2004

Haven't put money on Gbp/Jpy since late December.
Big picture to compare readings:

From base level 179.38 to 189.64 with projection calculation gave 192.16 / 196.24 and 197.79 ( all levels printed )
So within this current correction, the levels of interest seem to be 192.16 ( acting as resistance ), 190.59 , 189.63 and 188.85. I'm thinking gbp/yen will bounce off one these levels and continue her merry way.

Brisbane L 04:36 GMT January 19, 2004
I had 0.7550 as a hourly support, but at this stage i feel Aud/Usd will target 0.7530 ( important Daily support )
before a decent pip rebound. In regards to upside today, looks possible for 0.7610 /50.. GT

shanghai bc 06:33 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   

AB 05:40 -- Eur/Usd,Aud/Usd and Gold medium-term trend is still up as of today..When Eur/Usd breaks 250 dma line sometime in the future,we can talk of medium-term change of direction of the above three with some confidence..The present Dollar bounce is at best a process of getting rid of weak hands who joined the move above 1.20..A decent support will be around Eur/Usd 100 dma in coming weeks and if it fails around 250 dma before the upside trend resumes..Again,this overshooting of medium-term trend is unlikely to stop/reverse unless ECB hands are forced to intervene at some stage..Let me shout loud when the time comes for change of bias for medium-term players from time to time..Good trades..

Belgrade Knez 06:27 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   

Check this prediction:
http://www.vip-gold.com/daily.html
Guy is cool.

canada QJ 06:25 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
rayden_masandi
thank-you

Brisbane L 06:24 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Analysts said factors such as interest rate differentials, commodity prices, capital flows and the potential for China to revalue its currency suggest the Australian dollar's rally could eventually resume.

Commonwealth Bank's Schuman said the Australian dollar is likely to test US$0.8000 around midyear.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:22 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
canada QJ (406.50)
corection ideal is at 402.60 or 398.60.
thats number as ideal bottom.
you can sell now and cut reverse there.

nyc beyonding_destiny 06:18 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 05:40 GMT January 19, 2004

Any comment on trading US$/HK$? thanx

canada QJ 05:54 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi
would you kindly share your thoughts on gold this week?
tia

Brisbane L 05:51 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
HK ab thanks for that ,

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 05:49 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd at 1.7976 for intraday trade still no get buy signal. all still sell signal.
sell now to get FP. I think from here price will move down.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 05:45 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
hi...
eur/usd now for intraday trade still no get buy signal.
top area for today only at 1.2381-1.2400.
sel now to get floating profit. I think start down from here.

hk ab 0.88 05:43 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
if both of these pairs continue this dropping rate, I think a precipitious move is in play and take care.

hk ab 0.88 05:40 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Sydney 2,
short aud 30 lots and nzd 10 lots.

but I forgot the exact level he mentioned.

hk ab 0.88 05:40 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
bc, do you think a m/t trend reversal for aud is necessary? if yes, do you think the level mentioned by CB is appropriate,i.e. 0.68?

Sydney2 05:39 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
ab, what are these 40 lots ?

hk ab 0.88 05:36 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
DROP wants me to tell all of ya that his 40 lots trade are still open. Amazing.

nyc sa 05:16 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
I wish ATHENS was around to give us his opinion .

nyc sa 05:14 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
I have 2 questions to our economists on this forum : 1-anyone believes the euro upmove was just an upleg within an overall bearish trend ? 2- is the dollar downtrend just a downleg within an overall bullish trend ? in other words , what we have seen until the beginning of last week was merely retracement levels within the respective trends ? Aren't the trends of these two currencies correlated ? I guess if anyone can answer these questions we should be able to determine the dollar direction .

nyc sa 05:01 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
The dollar is in a short-term uptrend as there are a few events coming up in the US that will have to honor the US currency and dictate the next move : we have the state of the Union address on tuesday , the Fed meeting on the 27-28 january - unlikely to raise rates - and the G7 meeting 6-7 february , so the dollar scenario must give due respect to these events , any forecasts from some of our seasoned traders ?

Port Louis YH 04:37 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
thanks Ina & RKG, mb,Irish for yr humble opinions, this adds to the unfavorable opinions and I guess it's a signal to get out before Eur starts it's next dive!
In case it doesn't break 1.2350 down, I moved my s/l to 1.2345 hoping for a shot to 1.2485/2500 level...

Brisbane L 04:36 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Farmacia if your out there, have you a view on the Aud next move, finding support n/t around 7550 are could we see a move to the upper end before NY back in Tuesday. cheers

Chicago Irish 04:32 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Port Louis:To survive in this game money management is more important than whether your opinion is right or wrong,with poor money management some of the best ideas can lead to some of the worst outcomes.Good luck.

belden mb 04:26 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Port Louis: long as 1.2350 holds might have a shot at 1.2485/2500 level. breaks 1.2350 will fall 1.2200 level
looks like sell the rallies for now.

Kollam Treasurer 04:18 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Market and its participants are indeed too opinionated. While everyone was looking 1.87/1.90 in cable, i had the good luck of seeing cable breaking 1.80 and next target is 1.7760.

Bangalore RKG 04:16 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Port louis YH 04:00 GMT
IMHO, trend is down and break of 1.2365 signals drift down to 1.2305. view changes only if 1.2395 taken out from here, in which case 1.2455 will be seen. GL

Ina- mr.co'z 04:13 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Port Louis
To in this time level you which must see at 1.2260. if that level break possible you better have to take one action. and if I see from movement correction possible today its top only 1.2480 (but i'm not sure). imo .. gl / gt.

Doniphan 04:11 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
I have a seller wanting to sell me OBHD's and need to know what currency this is?

hk ab 0.88 04:09 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
if more options are fooled this week, the aud can generate a veyr impressive down spike in weekly chart.

Port louis YH 04:00 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
I am long Eur/Usd since friday at 1.2471.
I kept my position for weekend as I had signal it will jump up today, but it seems to be continuing a down trend, it is now near 1,2373.
Anyone has a forecast for the day trading. I am using my margin available to the max and wouldn't like to hit a loss.
The fundamentals for Eur are good for picking up more strength. Isn't it?

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:48 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
I'm off hope to see you guys at 189.61.. hope i am not the only one riding the train down.

Brisbane L 03:46 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
the world is such a depressing place , everyone blowing each other up

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:45 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
[email protected]

It's under the contact us link for this website, he is the forum leader. no one else but jay for his unbiased opinion... just be honest with him and he'll help you make a decision or guide you in the right direction.

GL

Brisbane L 03:44 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
On Sunday evening, at least 13 people were injured in a bomb attack in the Shia holy city of Karbala. The blast happened in a busy street 2km away from the Shrine of Abbas, an important place of pilgrimage. It was the latest in a series of attacks on Iraq's majority Shia community, but it is not clear who was responsible.

BBC latest

Anchorage DB 03:41 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Is that [email protected]?

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:41 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
emerson// for the forex made easy system you can post in the help forum and probably search it as well and you might pick up some help from the guys there.

you can easily just visit the turtle website and build a model that gives you entries exits stop levels and direction etc. it's there somewhere in the downloadable file that highlights what a good model is supposed to be composed of.

GL.

HK 03:37 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Sydney,
January 19: Medium to long-term Sentiment towards the EUR/USD remains bullish
despite the hefty 5 big figure move lower seen last week. Analysts warn though
that trying to pick a bottom on the current correction lower is very risky. The
technical signals are decidedly bearish in the short-term after the outside week
reversal lower and the crossing lower on the daily MACD. They point out that all
long EUR/USD positions established since the start of the year are under water
and the resulting stress could lead to more position liquidation.
A break below fibo support around 1.2315 (38.2 of the 1.1380/1.2895 move) would
suggest that a move towards 1.2140 is possible in the short-term. EUR/USD bulls
should wait for the technical signals to turn bullish again even if it risks
missing the lower stretches of the current correction. The EUR/USD trades
1.2372/77. IFR

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:37 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
for mc financial group. ask [email protected]

for that forex trading system, don't waste your time or money.

Anchorage DB 03:36 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Censored:

First word Rymes with "Honey"
Second word Rymes with "Pardon"

emerson 03:35 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
anyone have a comment on the 4x made easy trading system????

Anchorage DB 03:34 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Hello,

I am looking for info regarding an FX broker "censored Financial Group".

I have been demo trading for a while and need further info before I get too serious.

If anyone knows any info regarding this firm please let me know.

Thanks,

DB

Melbourne Qindex 03:33 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 03:32 GMT January 19, 2004
AUD/JPY : The critical point of my daily cycle is positioning at 0.8141*. The market is under pressure and it is now trading below the lower barrier of daily cycle.

... 0.7984, 0.8002, 0.8019, 0.8036, 0.8054, 0.8071, 0.8088, 0.8106 // 0.8123, 0.8141*, 0.8158, 0.8175, 0.8193 // 0.8210...

AUD/JPY : My 44-day cycle reference indicates that the market has a potential to tackle 78.58.

... // 78.58* - 79.85 - 81.11* - 82.38 - 83.65* // ...

Melbourne Qindex 10:20 GMT January 15, 2004
AUD/JPY : The current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle reference is 81.11 - 83.65 and the mid-point reference is 82.38. Projected supporting and resistant point is located at 78.58 and 86.19 respectively.

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:30 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia// u around to compare books on GBP/JPY mate?

melbourne pizza 03:18 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
ASTERIX: currencies is not for the faint hearted, good luck on your positions.....

MELBA ASTERIX 03:14 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
melbourne pizza: thanks for the info, it just gets gut wrenching at times...

melbourne pizza 03:04 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
ASTERIX: sentiment has not changed, any rise will be short lived, the equations are still pointing down for time being....

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:03 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
ML// you could have asked me to e-mail you the projections for the day week month year etc and you'd have seen for yourself, my model actually picked it up but i was afraid of pulling the trigger. there will be more trades with this pair so missed 1 no big deal at least my capital is intact for the time being. =)

further comments appreciated. =)

MELBA ASTERIX 02:57 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
melbourne pizza: i am still short from your strategy, do you still hold the same view

ICT ML 02:56 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Rafe, don't know yet, I thought 194.5 was support, and it didn't at all......so I have to look farther into the big picture for the answer.....still looking

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:53 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
ML// What do you think on this pair(GBP/JPY) for this week or even about the probabilities???

Brisbane L 02:52 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 i agree with you there

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:49 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
hello all haven't been spending much time in this forum must apologise atm.. too busy to post some messages, busy finishing my model + i have CMOS computer problems, should have a new motherboard and my problems fixed by mid-week.

as to make another lame call on GBP/JPY.

My model projected 189.61 as the monthly critical point to which the market would normally gravitate towards unless there is some bidding up on this pair if it touches 191.18 190.73.

For today I would hold a short with a tight stop above 192.15 targeting this lower level of 191.18 190.73 and probably 189.61 if not reached today then probably in a few days.

If the pair goes in the opposing direction then most likely the upper targets coming into sight would be 193.04, 194.11-34. and most likely higher.

if 189.61 is seen first then we could easily stop and reverse from that point towards higher ground towards the end of the week.

GL.

Ina- mr.co'z 02:47 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF 02:43 GMT January 19, 2004
Hi...Morning here !!...so there?..:)

Nassau QF 02:43 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Hi C'oz. Good morning/evening.

Ina- mr.co'z 02:40 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
HI ALL !.....

hk ab 0.88 02:39 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 02:11 GMT January 19, 2004

But I think aud/jpy may suffer a bit longer in m/t.

GL.

eur/aud is fine though.

LAX-LGB SNP 02:15 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
just in to watch my roo$ter$ do their job - no point initiating new orders in thin mkts :-)
close to hatching time on my gbpusd, usdchf and eurjpy eggs since double tops/bottoms need to break for further progre$$
remember to watch London's open levels on Friday esp. any sharp reversals

Brisbane L 02:11 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
$A weaker as greenback surges
http://afr.com/articles/2004/01/19/1074360661975.html

In the context of the last four- to six- weeks the drop in the Aussie isn't that large," said Macquarie Bank currency strategist Jo Masters.

"There's possibly a bit more downside, though dips should be seen as an opportunity to get long, particularly on the crosses

SA Bok 02:09 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Just on Bloombergs - AUD info - Lending has slowed since last increase and is still slowing - still think Rate hike only with lower AUD ...

RBA and NZ CB'S have to start to think about exporters and help then ?

IMVHO

SA Bok 02:04 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 01:48 - imho AUD lagging the EUR fall purely on Interest Rate differentials

AUD 5.75%
EUR 2%

I think RBA will only hike if AUDUSD is trading around .7000 cents ...

Market as we know is long

What a difference a week in FX Makees , last Monday we were staring .8000 and 1.3000 in the face and now we look for lower ...

GL all

Gen dk 02:04 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

ICT ML 01:48 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
I'm thinking 1.7450 is a target and should support for a bit on Aussie. Surprised it didn't hit it Friday.
Since I am not an Aussie expert, if anyone has a better idea let me know

Brisbane L 01:39 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
SA Bok not sure other data strong 50/50 rate hike possible

SA Bok 01:37 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane 01:17 GMT - ANZ , talking book ... caught long AUD IMHO ...

lahore FM 01:26 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
ML,
Yes not only Aussie But Also Yen.

Melbourne Qindex 01:25 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Brisbane L 01:23 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML was looking at myself, what level are you looking for possible back to 76 first?

ICT ML 01:20 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Anyone else starting tho think Aussie is about to catch up with euro and gbp soon?.....thinking about selling some soon if strength doesn't show up.

Melbourne Qindex 01:20 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:20 GMT January 19, 2004
EUR/AUD : My daily cycle charts indicate that the market is strong and it is now trading above the upper barrier of my daily cycle.

... 1.6087 // 1.6117, 1.6147, 1.6178, (1.6208), 1.6238 // 1.6269 ... 1.6329, 1.6360 ... 1.6420, 1.6451 ...


EUR/AUD : The trading reference of 44-day cycle indicates that the market has a good potential to tackle the upper barrier at 1.6563 // 1.6739.


... 1.6035 // 1.6211, 1.6387, 1.6563 // 1.6739 ...


Melbourne Qindex 08:14 GMT January 15, 2004
EUR/AUD : My 44-day cycle reference indicates that the market is bascially vibrating around the quantised level at 1.6411 with a magnitude of 152 pips, i.e. 1.6260 - 1.6563. A projected resistant level is positioning at 1.6687 - 1.6739 and a projected supporting level is expected at 1.5943 - 1.6035.

Brisbane 01:17 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
ANZ Still Expects RBA Hike In Feb

Melbourne Qindex 01:06 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : the following is still valid :-

Melbourne Qindex 00:03 GMT January 14, 2004
AUD/USD : My 44-day cycle reference suggest that the market is going to vibrate around the quantised level at 0.7665 with a magnitude of +/- 154 pips, i.e. 0.7511* - 0.7665* - 0.7818*. The trading reference is as follow after expansion of the expected trading ranges :-

... // 0.7511* - 0.7588 - (0.7665 * - 0.7742 - 0.7818*) // ...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 01:05 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
buy usd/jpy at 106.51
you will get the floating profit.

Nassau QF 00:57 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Beyonding_destiny I was just looking for a few PIPs on the upside.
I was getting bored here.
I might make some mistakes waiting for things to start moving.
Everything is standing still right now.

NYC Beyonding_destiny 00:47 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
the weakness of euro caused by the veral intervention by several ECB officials has dragged down the cable. A break of 0.68 in mid-term could lead cable T/P 1.88...otherwise, we could see rangy in both euro and cable for quite a while...

Nassau QF 00:36 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
I'm taking a risk of going long on cable.
Bought at 1.7993
Using a stop of 1.7960
I might lose but that's a chance you take.

Brisbane L 00:07 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Long AUD/EUR attractive as AUD unlikely to suffer as much as EUR in current bout of USD strength given positive AUD factors such as commodity prices, world growth and coupon advantage, say Macquarie Bank strategists.
reuters

Cairo A 00:03 GMT January 19, 2004 Reply   
Eur/USD if break 1.2370 then it will continue to 1.2357. A break of 1.2357 will resume down trend. I only consider buying if price breaks 1.2537

Sell at 1.2370 S/L 1.2405 Target 1.2125
Buy at 1.2537 S/L 1.2505 Target 1.2905

GT

 




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