Forex Forum Archive for 01/21/2004

San Roque CK 23:56 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
I've been watching to much x-files LOL

London AL 23:56 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja 21:38 DJI for the record Jan 14th 2000 high was 11750.28. The settlement was 11722.98 on that day the front month futures contract will have traded at a 31 point premium. (if my memory serves me right). Interesting to note that the downtrendline was crossed this passed month !

Livingston nh 23:52 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
San Roque - Saudia Arabia currency is pegged to the USD

Wylie,Tx JH 23:48 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
only 11% of US oil comes from middle east

San Roque CK 23:41 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
After watching the state of the union address last nite and listening to dubba's words of wisdom of a democratic and middle east, im starting to think that the OPEC producing countries which are autocratic monarhies have announced that oil production will not increase after there meeting in Feb, thus firing a shot across the bows of the US administration. That the shouldnt bite the hand that feeds them or in this case, the petrol pump that makes there cars go.

Plus OPEC countries do not favour getting paid in $ when there expenses are in local currencies including euro's.

Now if oil is the life blood of an american economic recovery and low priced oil is the vacine to any inflation, why arent more people concerned with the spiralling cost of oil.

US reserves are at 15 yr lows.

IS there more politics than economics at play here? Or am i confused?

Brisbane L 23:22 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Rate rises spook property investors
LINKHOUSING investors may have acted on the Reserve Bank's grim warnings about their unsustainable pursuit of real estate, with a halt in the relentless rise in lending following the first interest rate increase last year

Mtl JP 23:09 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Ge11Ja 22:45 / beware of DJIA, some duds (that went close to zero in practical terms), are no longer part of the index. For wider scope on market pulse consider the SnP500, currently frolicking the 50% retracement in this ""wealth-effect"ed" sucker's rally in a bear market. In answer to your Q, the usd would be even lower had it not been for foreign CB's filling the hole that private investment flows into US paper are leaving.

Ldnl 23:01 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Hearing talk that the FX scandal to hit NAB Bonds.

Sydney Ge11Ja 22:53 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Its going to be quiet in Asia today as most people away for Chinese New Year

Brisbane L 22:48 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Australian Labor Headed For Easy Win In Queensland
At the last state election Labor scored a landslide victory, grabbing 66 seats compared with the coalition's 15

Prime Minister John Howard will be closely watching the outcome of the Queensland vote as he works out his own campaign platform ahead of a federal election expected sometime after June this year.

Moscow Hawk 22:47 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
USD managed to hold pivotal zones I mentioned earlier today (EUR/USD - 1.2675-00, USD/JPY -106.30-60). Currently dollar does not look bad and I find EUR/USD shorts here 1.2640-70 and 1.2740-75 if seen reasonable for return back to 1.2450-00 initially.

Good luck

Sydney Ge11Ja 22:45 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Mtl JP

Seesm not that far away, and begs the question at what point the lure of US assets becomes irresistible.

Volatility of the like we have seen over past 5 days is indicative of topping market

Brisbane L 22:42 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Reuters
Bundesbank gold sales bid pressures COMEX gold
COMEX gold fell Wednesday after Germany said it wanted to unload 600 tonnes of bullion if a Central Bank gold sales agreement was renewed .The market is more interested to see who else will be requesting a quota -- France or Italy perhaps?," wrote Societe Generale analysts in New York on Wednesday. reuters

This story should be watched when dollar does recover, it will be used as an excuse to sell gold down.

Mtl JP 22:39 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Ge11Ja 21:38 / look here, click the Historical Prices sidebar and probably look around dec '99-Jan '00 period.

Ldn 22:31 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Dollar bulls bide time, chew prospects on sideline
Recent efforts by European officials to talk the euro down off its peaks could be the preamble to an eventual dollar recovery, sooner than most traders expect
LINK

Melbourne Qindex 22:28 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Brisbane L 22:23 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Jay dow +95

GVI john 22:19 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
STRATEGY SESSION �Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2645�. $/yen 106.85
DJIA 10,624, -95 pts�NASDAQ 2,142, -6 pts
10-yr 4.02%, -3 bp�s
MARKET OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI�s �Market Snapshot�:
CLICK HERE
See GVI for more. For more info contact: [email protected]

Brisbane L 22:07 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
New Zealand Nov Retail Sales Fall 0.4% lower than expected.

Brisbane L 22:03 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
The December jobs report may have understated the strength of the labor market, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said in a radio talk-show interview Wednesday
"There is a big error factor in those numbers. They are estimates, and there is a big error factor and I think they may well have understated and we will see a restatement in the future .There's some question about the accuracy of these statistics," Snow said.
Interview at the White House with North Dakota-based WDAY AM 970.

Sydney Ge11Ja 21:38 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone please tell me the all time high of the Dow Jones?

Sydney Ge11Ja 21:37 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
C

Brisbane L 21:17 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Alan Governor Alan Bollard will make an on the record speech in Christchurch the day after the central bank's Jan. 29 interest rate review.
A clear majority of economists polled think Bollard will wait until March before raising the Official Cash Rate
NZP.

NYC NYC 20:56 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
This is from a RTRS (public via the web) report on Cheney's attendance at the Davos World economic Summit.

The vice president will have no new message on the steady weakening of the U.S. dollar against the euro, the senior official said. "There's no change in policy. ... We feel very good about where the economy is," he said.

The dollar's slide has sparked concern in Europe that it could stifle a European economic recovery by making exports to the United States too expensive.

LAX-LGB SNP 20:00 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
gotta agree with Biscuit Boy re: using minimal leverage and building up trades
the only plus of higher leverage is rollover payouts but they can hurt when they have to paid ... esp on a Wednesday :-)

beijing road 19:48 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Jack: I think forex trading is getting popular since 2001 in China due to usd falling down.

chicago jack 19:42 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
road, I am an american, but i've been to beijing quite a few times, stayed mostly in the chaoyang and haidian districts. I was't aware the forex was being traded much in mainland china lol.

beijing road 19:36 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
jack: thks. I am a native Chinese. How abt u?

USA Biscuit Boy 19:34 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Jack I have no stops. I don't play the hi leverage game. I enter small and build up when the trend goes my way.

chicago jack 19:31 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
biscuit, where are your stops at, may i ask?

chicago jack 19:31 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
road, are you chinese or expat? enjoy the festivities ringing in the monkey year!

USA Biscuit Boy 19:17 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Hi Jack. It is entirely possible, even 1.14 before up again. I do like buying at 1.1750 tho. With these whipsaws a lot of people are in the hole and there are a lot of euro bulls still trapped from higher up playing the averaging game no doubt. Good luck.

beijing road 18:44 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
It is a coldest day of this winter so far.

LAX-LGB SNP 18:42 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
looks like there's been a lotta confusion today ... don't know if i'm (un)lucky for having to stay out - 2nd day in succession now :-(

chicago jack 18:40 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Hi road, how's the weather in BJ?

Chambery FR JFB 18:35 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
To BA 17:40 GMT January 21, 2004
Try censored.com 10000 historical data max :-) GL GT Am always interested in doing xl tests if you need help do not hesitate (thru jay of course :-)

chicago jack 18:33 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
biscuit boy are you seeing what I'm seeing, that we will see 1.1550 printed in the euro at end of febuary early march time frame?

beijing road 18:19 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Correct: EUR/usd not EUR/JPY.

beijing road 18:17 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
I expect to see double top at 1.29 line for EUR/JPY., and will square out there. If new high is seen, i will buy into dips for another potential 1000pips again. GL all.

Kamensk Andy 17:17 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Happy new lunar year to those who celebrate it!
BC, nt, ab, revdax, Kevin,Qindex - take my best wishes and many good trades for all of us this year!
Here in Russia some people who have good friends in China-are celebrating it too!

Euroland Chuppa Chup's 17:16 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Euro sellers should stop the fees....

London Paul_ex trader 17:14 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
went long eur/gbp twice today, managed to stopped out at the low thank you very much market! You can be sure that 0.6880 is the LOW now!

sarasota jf 17:08 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
also long eurusd if that interests u

Buenos Aires Argenfx 17:07 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
To TO Ba: Dear Sir, I�m usually trading during the morning (starting 4 am EST). Can I access to your trading ideas ? If yes, let me know if you use ICQ or how can I chat with you. Thanks & GT.

sarasota jf 17:07 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ict-ml one of these well known model funds just initiated some long gbpyen for yr info - i have no view on it myself

London Paul_ex trader 17:06 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
market will do maxamim damage to most people's positions before making the move they expected in the first place! (Famous saying of grey haried (no haired) trader!!)

GA TJ 17:02 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Hey ML

Some days you are the windshield and some days you are the bug. Today I am, well was, King of the Bugs. Splattered!!

Just watch that SOB EURUSD. For the 3rd time It came back to my stop , this time @ 1.2610, and then resumed course.

That justed totally PO'ed me.

Ya'll have a good day.

st. pete islander 17:01 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ML, you've got mail!

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:55 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
to mr. Jay..
I will reply your message tomorrow. thanks for that post.

Barcelona Tony 16:52 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
HI, does anyone know what has happened to the great oil man?? no longer seeing him active in msn??

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:52 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
okay.. gbp/usdhave given sell signal to get 1.8230, stp 1.8340 bid.
sell now at 1.8294

GA TJ 16:51 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ML Been shopping for a new backside. Not much left on this one. Traded very little in Dec. Was writing a lot of code testing new ideas. Had one that produced incredible results but I think there is a coding error. I couldn't reproduce it in Excell.

Stopped on my last Euro. 0 for 3 plus 2 B/E today. Calling it a day I think.

FWIW My Stuff:
EURUSD
15 min bouncing back and forth on signals
30 Min Hit 2nd sup @ 1.2580 and bounced
60 min Hit 1st sup @ 1.2575 and bounced

Livingston nh 16:46 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
fwiw- USD/JPY may be setting up for a lower trading band into March yr end - 104 to 106 - the band might be wider (103 to 107) if intervention is slowed now and concentrated in a volatile March

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:46 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
be carefull gbp/usd now try to build sell signal. still try.

hk ab 0.88 16:44 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
closedlrcad breakeven side line

Quebec YQB 16:44 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Going long USD/CAD @ 1.3025 present levels. any comments on this pair?

ICT ML 16:41 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
TJ....where you been hiding, haven't heard from you in awhile.....hope all is well

USA Biscuit Boy 16:40 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys. Managed to buy usd against euro, cable and aussie at very nice fills overnight. I'll be back in a couple weeks to cash in. GL and GT all :)

GA TJ 16:38 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
To BA

Sure. I usually start teh day between 5:30 and 6:00 est. Ask Jay for my Email Address.

I have 1 more open Euro trade on that is about 6 PIPs from getting stopped. If it goes I am done for the day.

TJ

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:36 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
if eur/usd and usd/chf be met at the same number..that's interested and monumental of historical....just a joke.

To BA 16:34 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ - are you only trading in the morning? (That's how I trade, starting @ 7:30).
Last 2 months my system returned about 700 pips (touched 800 pips profit, then went down) on just EURO/USD, wich I consider quite good, considering that everyone else selling signals makes 200 to 500 pips on 3 or 4 currency pairs per month. So thats an average of, lets say, 150 a month, per currency pair. Mine gave me at least 250 to 350 a month, per pair (Euro).
If you want we can exchange strategy ideas.

Euroland Chuppa Chup's 16:33 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Ok, Waterloo, I explain you my view:
Euro is surfing on an uptrend right? and broke an hourly down trend.Moreover, there are no fundamental changes, so, I suggest to buy with a stop in the last down trend zone: 1.2610.
Let's see.....

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:31 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
just a joke.
I hope eur/usd and usd/chf be met at the same number 1.2520

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:30 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
World JTRJ 16:24 GMT January 21, 2004
yes..too bad.
but not often...LOL
"brave"..but give me better level entry, thanks.(just a joke)

waterloo newbie 16:27 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
OMG, u guys made me confused.. buy or sell Eur on earth?

Euroland Chuppa Chup's 16:25 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Euro smell good to buy , stop under 1.2610

World JTRJ 16:24 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo .......... that's what everyone sees, so it is the most UNLIKELY to happen ... have your stopsr eady to be triggered

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:19 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Hope get recovery from this.
eur/usd sell at 1.2634 stp at 1.2647 target 1.2520
usd/chf buy at 1.2414 stp at 1.2385 target 1.2520
usd/jpy buy at 106.78 stp at 107.50 target 107.45

To BA 16:19 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
So I'm not the only one...This was a bad day - got stoped on 3 trades. I guess this is one of those days when you shouldn't trade...

GA TJ 16:11 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Is anyone else getting whipped around as bad as I am? Backside is getting a weee bit tender. 4 Trades this am, 2 avg loss 30, and 2 B/E. Not my usual day.

Miami OMIL 16:10 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Athens 16:01 GMT January 21, 2004
Thanks for the tip appreciated. (/;-> GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:07 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
will be added more when my signal get confirmation again.
now still not change view to buy usd.

beijing road 16:05 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ML: sorry sir. It is not 1h but 30m chart.

beijing road 16:01 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ML; Take a look at cable 1h chart, it seems to take 18380 out quite soon.

hk ab 0.88 16:01 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
stop at 1.3078 but will add at 1.3065.

Euroland Chuppa Chup\ 16:01 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Bought euro....

Athens 16:01 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Long USD/CAD preferred from today in my tech. Buying on dips is the favoured tactic.

ICT ML 15:58 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Road......looks to be to me

hk ab 0.88 15:56 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, reverse cad short 1.3028.

HK Kevin 15:55 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, 1.3065 may be the top of today if you are very lucky.

hk ab 0.88 15:55 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
thanks Kevin.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:55 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Iget stp.
ok. still good for buy usd. I will try again here.

beijing road 15:55 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ML: Do you think 18250 is quite solid support for cable pls? Thks.

hk ab 0.88 15:53 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ask price.

HK Kevin 15:53 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, USD/CAD 1.3030/40 is a pofit taking level. I have covered at 1.2985 ealier and change to short EUR.

hk ab 0.88 15:53 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
someone big guarding 1.3050.
trail all cad longs at 1.3033

beijing road 15:52 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML : maybe she is just getting tired.

Stockholm za 15:51 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
NYPD 15:46 GMT January 21, 2004 ..... Street cop ---
YOU can always go back to foot patrol.....

hk ab 0.88 15:51 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
sold more eur 1.2625.

Dublin Flip 15:50 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
PD I think you'll find that if you don't abuse or diss the FF contribuitors than the posts are there for years to see. As for the signal givers I think you'll find more than a few who know their stuff and plenty who are high on enthusiasm feeling their way like you obviously are.
Come on in. The water's fine!!!!

hk ab 0.88 15:49 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
see how mysterious this cad!

longed 1.2960, 1.2880.....

Euroland Chuppa Chup's 15:47 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Ok, I think you should try to buy euro on a weakness if any...
After all, it's an uptrend...

Stockholm za 15:43 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   

fwiw... Its all good....

In the abundance of water,
The fool is thirsty.......

beijing road 15:42 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Eur/usd seems to take more time to consolidating btw 12550-12650 level before another explosive movement again.

ICT ML 15:41 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Anyone have a magic # reason for cable to stop @ 1.8370 earlier?

HK Kevin 15:39 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Hi Indonesia Solo, same view on EUR/USD. It is a sell in the 4 hr chart. Sell at 1.2614, your stop loss and profit-taking look great to me.

Euroland Chuppa Chup's 15:38 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
I suggest to buy euro at 1.2640; or,effectively, SELL NOW!!!!

Stockholm za 15:37 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
CHF/JPY .. R & S Z... at the moment.....
8674-8653
8632-8626
8598
8571-8564
8543-8522
True RA ~8692-:-8472
happy trades...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:31 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ok. eur/usd have get test high at 1.2613
that is the chance for sell (IMO)

beijing road 15:30 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Band timing on eur/JPY. It went back to 13470 level immediately hit the low, 134.50 my stop.

Johannesburg cd 15:30 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Hey Raden are you standing by that 1.2613 prediction, seems pretty close to being overtaken.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:28 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Argentina FX,
I am sorry..maybe make you confuse.
I try to help you with my prediction based on 15 minutes chart for my day trade view.
ussually for get 30-50 pips.

Buc Sys 15:28 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Jay are you dumb or what - you don't make any sense - what email?!...

Atlanta 15:26 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
could anyone share me with his/her opinion on eurusd for today?
thnks

Miami OMIL 15:26 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Looks like 1.2670 will hold for eur/usd and the dollar is getting some strength back in this session. Fib retracement looks like this 1.2541, 1.2501 and 1.2461 with support at the moment at 1.2540-45 and 1.2490-95 IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

To 15:26 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
To Indonesia

Where do you get all these signals from? Are you using any software?
Thanks

GVI Jay 15:23 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Buc. Check your email

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:21 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
buy usd/jpy withstp at 106.74

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:20 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ok. usd/jpy now have given buy signal to get 107.45

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:17 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
maximal test high eur/usd is at 1.2613.
gbp/usd still no sell signal (wait position)
aud/usd still no signal sell and usd/jpy still signal buy.
usd/chf have given buy signal to get 1.2520
buy here 1.2458 to get 1.2520 with stp at 1.2414(bid)

London R J 15:15 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
waterloo nuwibe
any decisions w.r.t your earlier question / sell gbp / eur??
I am in the same predicament, general consencus from the 'experts' seems to be cable headed to 1.8030 nr. term
your thoughts please.....guys

beijing road 15:11 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
God, eur/jpy !

Buenos Aires Argenfx 15:06 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
To Indonesia Solo raden_masandi: What do you think about EUR ? Do you still believe up for today ? Tks. & GT.

Helsinki iw 15:04 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ EUR/NOK reacting strongly to Fin Min statement that
easing cucle may be at an end. Think first reaction is wrong,
as this will probably mean that we will see switching od NOK
debt into SEK debt. IMHO.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:04 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ok. eur/usd give me information sell signal .
sell here at 1.2584 to get 1.2525 with stp 1.2634

beijing road 15:03 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
My eur/jpy was stopped out.

Gen dk 15:00 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LDN SAM 14:56 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ANY CHANCE OF EUR/USD HEADING TO 1.2500 TODAY?

Bangkok EB 14:56 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:49

What is a "trueway" ?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:54 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
still risky to act. better wait for eur/usd in 7 minutes.

slv sam 14:53 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
any reason why canadian is heavily sold!GT

Bangkok EB 14:51 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
WTF is this person talking about on seenbeecee?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:51 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
in arround 8 minutes..is the key situation of eur/usd.

HK Kevin 14:50 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Closed my long USD/CAD from 1.2880 last night at 1.2987.
Kung Hiu Fat Choi to all Chi traders.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:49 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ok.
eur/usd buyer now have a little time to make decision (only 15 minutes to get trueway). if price will move up..ussually in 15 minutes price move up fast, but if not maybe will get selling pressure.

waterloo newibe 14:49 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
hi..guys.. ready to sell Eur and GBP now? or not/

SA M 14:47 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Johannesburg cd 13:57 GMT January 21, 2004

What is your email?

Gen dk 14:27 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Tallinn viies 14:22 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Dutch PM says euro level not yet serious FWIW

Nairobi, Kenya Jk 14:17 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
London R J 14:01
Sure the mushikaki is not to be forgotten. U have also been around lately? Sure missing alot!

Cable i have a sell at 1.8300 for 1.8250. SL 1.8330
EUR$i have a sell at 1.2620 for 1.2570. SL 1.2650

All IMHO. GL to all

GER ad 14:16 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Vil Serge 14:08
First the member need to confirm in the forum that [email protected] can give you the address, than ask Jay per Email.

dc fxq 14:15 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Manchester MK 14:06 GMT

Thanks much, it was odd how MMS simply disappeared over the weekend with no announcement.

Manchester Daniel 14:11 GMT

I'm orginally from the one in NH

beijing road 14:12 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Just opened a new position long EUR/JPY at 134.69 with stoploss at 134.50.

Manchester Daniel 14:11 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
MK - just curious - r u from Manchester,UK or New Hampshire?? Perhaps we are neighbours

beijing road 14:10 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Just raised stop from 1.8195 to 1.8250 to lock in 300pips profit within 24h. It is really a unbelievable beast, and I got to love it.LOL

London Paul_ex trader 14:09 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
manchester: spot on - from one who knows!

Vil Serge 14:08 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
How to ask Jay for e-mail addresses of forex members? TIA

Manchester MK 14:06 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
To dc - "fxq" - The story I hear is that MMS was bought late last year by their largest competitor (MCM) which subsequently went through MMS and slashed staff (80-90% of them) - especially the more expensive ones. What was billed as a "merger" was in fact the wholesale destruction of MMS. I guess they couldn't find any other way to beat the competition. Can't beat 'em, kill 'em off.

beijing road 14:06 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
newbie : hope you have a great Spring Festival with your family!

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:05 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
my finger error now for typing.
just need go arround. LOL
now fresh money come to you. :-)

waterloo newbie 14:04 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
there r lots of Places called waterloo.. however, my city is in Canada Ontario... but now.. i am in wuhan in china.. for celebration with my family ... i have long time didn't come to this forums.. i still remembered u for a long time ago

Gen dk 14:01 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London R J 14:01 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Nairobi pippirate!!
dont forget a quick chicken mushkaki in a bun with the dava sold near the open fire at the back of the carnivore-- maisha murefu!! ps. sell � for $ now?? comments please

beijing road 14:01 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
newbie : happy new year to you too. By the way, where is waterloo plz?

Nairobi, Kenya Jk 14:00 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate 13:51
U welcome anytime mate! Do say hi when u come by.
Am off for the day. Happy trading to all!

Cairo MDR 14:00 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi
what's ur target?
is it 1.2710??

waterloo newbie 13:58 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi//
thank you very much Indon. we love u so much..
Happy Chinese New Year....
Best wish to all chinese here.. Happy New Year..

beijing road 13:57 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Excellent timing for your call.

Johannesburg cd 13:57 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Looks like your countdown worked Raden. What's your target on Eur?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:57 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
seen... my count down was finished. LOL

LDN SAM 13:54 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Anything behind this almost 1 pt retracement on eur/usd

Rivonia PipPirate 13:51 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Nairobi, Kenya Jk 13:36 Ah, a Dawa, with extra honey vodka and lemon. :-) If lucky enough to get there I'll contact you.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:50 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
my system give me count down.. LOL
just a joke. :-)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:46 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
I think now is the time.
buy eur/usd
buy gbp/usd
buy gold
sell usd/chf
buy aud/usd
sell usd/jpy.

don't forget with stp follow your trade style.

saloniko 2004 nk..1.40 13:46 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Gong Xi Fa Cai...





nk

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:45 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
I think now is time for buy gold at 410 to get 417.
stp at 407.25

Gen dk 13:41 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Nairobi, Kenya Jk 13:36 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate 13:27
E Africa is superb plenty of sunshine. wildlife and the beaches all waiting for guys who make enough pips. Not to forget your favorite dawa. when are you coming over?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:34 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
I suggest to exit sell of gbp/usd now. (to risky). better safty profit at 1.8267

Global-View 13:34 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
GVI 13:31 GMT January 21, 2004 Edit Delete
Housing starts 2,.070 mln, permits +3.3%, both stronger than forecasts

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:33 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Argentina FX.
I agree , but don't forgetwithstp follow your style trade.

my message :
now price is on the key situation...maybe eur/usd and gbp/usd able to move up suddenly soon.

Buenos Aires Argenfx 13:29 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
To Indonesia Solo raden_masandi: I�m thinking to open buy positions on EUR at this level. Are you agree with this idea ? Tks & GT.

Rivonia PipPirate 13:27 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Nairobi, Kenya Jk 13:17 Hi again, it has been a while. Lots of journeys, so been in 'n out. Must get to the Carnivoure for a meal soon:-0 Hows life in East Africa? GL

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:26 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Argentina FX.
I think now have get support.1.2602-1.2590 (max)

Nairobi,Kenya Jk 13:24 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:14 .
Thanks Sir.
I have been around once in a while but I have not been posting my views. Thanks for you good posting. GL and GT to all.

Gen dk 13:22 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Buenos Aires Argenfx 13:22 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
To INDONESIA SOLO raden_mas: Hello, friend...the EUR went through your support level at 1.2602 What do you think...next support at 1.2550 ? Thanks & GT.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:22 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
I think gbp/usd only get 1.8240 (not good if hope until 1.8225). please exit your sell there.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:20 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
if gbp/usd now at 1.8225 is nice to move up eur/usd...but still the opposite signal. cross rate play?
I think eur/usd still flat..wait gbp/usd get the support and will move up together.

Nairobi, Kenya Jk 13:17 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate
Hi there! its been sometime, where did you disappear to?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:14 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Nairoby Kenya...
hello..long time no meet here.
welcome.
I am sorry for my late answer.
I think you can compare my view of gbp/usd just now.
really...sorry..

Gen dk 13:10 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Cairo MDR 13:08 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:05 GMT January 21, 2004

what about euro?
what do u think..I got mixed signals
TIA

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:05 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
seen aud/usd will move up from 0.7705 in this situation to get 0.7762. now is at 0.7717.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:00 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
yes.. gbp/usd have given sell signal at 1.8287, you can sell now to get 1.8230 with stp at 1.8338 (bid)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:55 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
maximal test high at 1.2465 (top)
still on the sell signal

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:54 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
I suggest you for sel usd/chf for target 1.2350 with stp at 1.2476. sell here at 1.2441

GVI john 12:53 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Other items worth looking at in the market snapshot are the 12mo changes in Brent crude vs gold. And the surges in the NASDAQ and DAX in that same period.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:48 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
be carefull for eur/usd , now is on the support area..and so .. can will up from here (1.2602)

Nairobi, Kenya JK 12:46 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:30
Hi Raden Mas. My system is given me a cable sell signal at 1.8310 for short term trade. Is this what you refered to.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:44 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
step-5 nice done usd/chf at 1.2448

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:40 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
nice done. gbp/usd at 1.8287-83
ICT ML
step-4 nice be passed.

Rivonia PipPirate 12:40 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 12:27 Willdo and likewize Vik, looking back I think you must have been my first mate on this forum:-]

GVI john 12:38 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
New format:
Judging from our site statistics, we have been getting a lot of interest in our "Market Snapshot". Of interest today note how in the top box how three month deposit rates on the euro have been drifting lower. They still do not point to a rate cut.

CLICK HERE

Melbourne Qindex 12:34 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 10:53 GMT - Kung Hei Fat Choi!

Melbourne Qindex 12:32 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 11:54 GMT - Kung Hei Fat Choi!

GVI john 12:32 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2620�$/yen 106.90
DJIA +21 pts� 10-yr 4.03%, +1 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI�s �Market Snapshot�:
CLICK HERE
More on GVI. Contact [email protected] for more info....

melbourne farmacia 12:32 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 12:23 GMT January 21, 2004
If the last week or so is anything to go by, this monkey year will be very interesting. gt

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:30 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
be carefull gbp/usd will give information to built sell signal and confirmation at arround 40 minutes from now. if yes..will get 1.8230 (IMO)

Rivonia PipPirate 12:30 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
CT DB 12:22 Hi DB, hope to see the sun in a few days time. Missed your reply post the other morning so good luck with your fund.

Calcutta Vikram 12:27 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Yes, Cap'n Rivonia.....been a little preoccupied with somethng or the other these last several months. Lemme know if there are any good pickings in sight. Don't want to lose too many men though.

hk revdax 12:23 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 11:54 //the financial mkt is going to be quite volatile in the year of the monkey, for the reason that a monkey is by nature a very volatile animal.

CT DB 12:22 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate,
good day mate, hope all is well in the "vaal".

dc fxq 12:18 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
London Paul_ex trader 10:34 GMT January 21, 2004

Are they still "publishing" anything? My old link to the MMS "bullets" has been static since late December.

Rivonia PipPirate 12:17 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 12:07 Ahoy Vikram, good one yesterday, but missed the boat today. Hope your doing well, seems you dissapeared for a year or so. GL

Calcutta Vikram 12:07 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Hi PipPirate......any good strikes lately, Me Hearty?

beijing road 11:59 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
haha, Gong Xi Fa Cai !

Rivonia PipPirate 11:59 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
May as well join the celebrations with a plate of mee bing and a glass of porto geo.

Belgrade Knez 11:59 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 11:54 GMT January 21, 2004

What does Xin Nian Kuai Le stands for?
Thanks

Calcutta Vikram 11:59 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Best wishes to you, Shanghai bc.

shanghai bc 11:54 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   

Happy Spring Festival or happy year of the Golden Monkey to those who celebrate it..Gong Xi Fa Cai and Xin Nian Kuai Le..

Cairo MDR 11:39 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Today 1.2625 is proving i is a stong level whether as a resistance or support

Cairo MDR 11:36 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:20 GMT January 21, 2004
agree with u on that...

Calcutta Vikram 11:35 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Euro-Yen
---------
Look at the May '03 peak on the Weekly Candles or Weekly Close chart. If using the Weekly Close chart, superimpose your favourite Moving Average upon it. Compare the picture with what you see just now.

The Cross has stopped short of 135.50 so far today, which is the 61.8% retracement of the fall from 137.89 to 131.63

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:29 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf can move up from this number at 1.2417 for 1.2448. you can buy with stp at 1.2410

Bangkok EB 11:27 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
First ! Gong Xi Fa Cai !

Bangkok EB 11:26 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Allison Morris on seeandbeesee is pretty censored hot

Belgrade Knez 11:25 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
HK AB

How would you say Happy Chinese New Year in Chinese?

hk ab 0.88 11:20 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
my last last post before union dinner.

Those European officials really have some problems.
Now we have 2 Mr. W one was trying talking down and the other one is fanning the fire.

Mysterious.....

Can't they compromise a better resolution and a more coherent resolution before they talk their book?

But that's good for one thing: generating more volatility for us.

GL.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:20 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Cairo MDR 11:10 GMT January 21, 2004
I think scenario like this:
now price down to get 1.2603 or 1.2585 and then go higher at 1.2687 and then down so far..(IMO)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:15 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
yes.. I think from thsi level 0.7733 now aud/usd will up to get 0.7762

Bangkok EB 11:14 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:08

A fool?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:13 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
hey..who want to sell gbp/usd at 1.8317 to get 1.8285 with stp 1.8339 (bid)?

Texas(Jkns.) PNB 11:12 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
I am also looking at a close below 1.2544 on the charts.
hope this helps anyone
TIA:-)

kuwait RH 11:11 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Cairo MDR 11:06 GMT January 21, 2004
thks. as i am already long, i have moved down the stop to 1.2615. hope i will survive!!

Cairo MDR 11:10 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi
where do u see euro in the coming few hours??
TIA

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 11:10 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Though I would like to see eur/usd go down,i think it shall make a move towards 1.2702.Don't have any idea where it's going after that!
Hope the "Money Year" doesn't make me a monkey in trades,LOL.

TIA:-)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:08 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
hey..who want sell eur/usd at 1.2628 to get 1.2605 ? with stp at 1.2650(bid)

Cairo MDR 11:06 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
my scenario @ 2625
1. if euro breaks 2625-15 which is a tough level as we all have seen this morning, it will attempt 2588 and possibly 2550, it is most likely that 2550 will hold, but if it breaks there might be a deeper correct
2. if 2625/15 holds this means that it will try on the session highs 2673 and the possible level after that would be 2683+
i prefer scenario number 2 because i believe that the bullish sentiment is stronger
GL>

hk ab 0.88 11:00 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
eurchf still worth a short for day trade.

should take it above 1.57.

Chambery FR JFB 11:00 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Singapore Vincent 10:52 GMT January 21, 2004
IMVHO :-) CHF may go up to next resistance ard 1.2460, if broken, target 1.2575 (am long CHF @1.2409) fwiw :-) GL GT

sg Fxsignal618 10:59 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
sell euro market 1.2630 s/l 1.27 tp 1.24

dubai RH 10:59 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
can u guys educate me of a 'routine' news that can move eur-usd drastically before the close of NY time today? let us worry about off the cuff remarks by the euro bank as a separate issue - for which we would be helpless. glgt

hk ab 0.88 10:57 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
although helly tempted by the dlr/chf shorts but.... better not to involve too many pairs before holidays.

hk ab 0.88 10:57 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
put all the limits in place before leaving.

dlr/cad s/l a bit wider to 1.2843.
aud short at breakeven of all lots around .7780.
short nzd previous high for bigger objectives.
aud/nzd longs stay tune and will add anything near 1.1480.
Still want to see what the clown can play.

The most ridiculous move is dlr/cad.

dlr/jpy will take profit for anything under 106.50

eur shorts stay open and prepare to average higher.

GL.

hk ab 0.88 10:53 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Chinese players will take a break for tomorrow and the day after tomorrow.

I wish every Chinese folks, "Kung Hei Fat Choi" Kevin, nt, Qindex, Noody, Revdax and of course our master BC.

Singapore Vincent 10:52 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Anybody has any comment on DollarSwiss?

dubai RH 10:49 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
looks to me fairly good support around 1.2615 for eur-usd? hope u guys comment pls?

Nottingham 10:48 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Think we now have intraday line in sand for euro...anything below 2620/25 and I see 2560/80 poss...otherwise we probe upside...currently no position but looking to long at 2695/2700 on a pullback following a break higher if seen (hopefully tomorrow) gl gt

waterloo newbie 10:44 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
u guys think i should take a rest to have a drink first? ..hehe.. where to sell eur.. ?1.2650 around?

London R J 10:39 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Morning guys,
crunchtime now, cable hit 1.8371 earlier, seemingly going down to 1.8331, buy usd now or wait for n.y to open later. any thoughts/ views on this?? indonesia solo are you there??
--- regards
gujuboy

dubai RH 10:37 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
KUWAIT F.A. 09:59
what do u think of eur-usd now at 1.2625. buy?

London Paul_ex trader 10:34 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Mumbai VK : Many of them were fired after the company was sold to MCM (Informa). The good ones I hoope have gone to banks!

SA Bok 10:32 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
and Now who is selling EUR and GBP please ? TIA

Moscow Hawk 10:23 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Market it is currently testing 106.30-60 in USD/JPY. I think the zone is pivotal for the pair now.

Moscow Hawk 18:23 GMT January 20, 2004
There are very interesting developments in USD/JPY front. Eventually USD has sunk below 107.15 and I expect acceleration of downside in this pair soon. Inability of USD to hold 106.30-60 zone will confirm the USD weakness and open again 105.75-00 for the test. Moreover if USD will fall to the last indicated zone I would not be surprised to see the test of 105 by the end of the week or early next week.

Good luck

Mumbai VK 10:22 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Anybody know where those ex-MMS analysts have gone to? I'm missing their Technical input. Hope they re-surface soon - to save me from my own stupid trades (Still sitting on AUD longs)

slv sam 10:20 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 11:35 GMT January 20, 2004
just in case, will sell euro at 1.2515 and more at 1.2550 s/l 1.2640.GT

took the loss and reversed. Now bullish euro.
It looks 2004 will not be as nice as 2003 for me!!GT

London SW 10:16 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Rumours of Asian Central Banks on top of the Eur at 70-80 lvl.
Also negative divergence on the houly charts.
Good risk reward sell here with a stop through 1.2680

Manchester Daniel 10:16 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning - its been a while since my last post - been a bit lazy I suppose contributing to the forum - so will try and post a bit more often.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8209-971258,00.html

Hopefully the above link works - article from todays UK Times "Japan loses �40 BILLION in currency fight". A very interesting read.

Miami OMIL 10:14 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Raden and ML are a tag team today good call guys. Nice to see Jon�s comments I see the yen master is in tiptop form good call on the gbp/jpy. There was another person from Miami on the forum earlier that is rare here. The dollar correction may be on a lifeline but is not dead yet IMO. The eur/usd top 1.2680-1.2700 has not been taken out. With overbought indicators screaming for relief we might see some dollar strength in the NY session IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Brisbane L 10:12 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
BOE Minutes: Dollar Fall Could Hurt Euro-Zone Recovery

Gen dk 10:11 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HKT PS 10:10 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
beirut jb 10:07 GMT January 21, 2004

forex talking.

Belgrade Knez 10:08 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   

beirut jb 10:07 GMT January 21, 2004
About forex.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 10:07 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
KUWAIT F.A.

I feel long-term eur/usd is still poised for a good move,but i can only see till 1.3140.I had a SELL on eur/usd for medium-term,so i am expecting a move down & then up to 1.31X areas.From there,I shall see where to think after that...For now,1.35 I don't have an eye for.

Your comments would be appreciated and what makes you quite so sureon the 1.35-1.4 areas??


TIA:-)

beirut jb 10:07 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
HKT PS 09:59 GMT

hi mate, live conf about what??

melbourne farmacia 10:04 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 09:53 GMT January 21, 2004
Might see swissy bounce from 1.2380/90 zone ab.

ICT ML 10:01 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Is BUBBA still squashing 1.2660?

HKT PS 09:59 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   

Anybody wants to join live conference on yahoo messenger, ask [email protected] to invite you in.

beijing road 09:59 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Offline for lunch. Will ba back soon. Happy new year to every chinese here!

KUWAIT F.A. 09:59 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD WILL JUMP THE TRESHOLD OF 1.30 BEFORE THE G7 MEETING IN FEB AND GO TO 1.35/45 AFTER THAT UNTIL JOINT COORDINATED INTERVENTION BY G7 MORE THAN ONCE WE WILL SEE STABILITY A LITTLE WHILE AFTER THIS. CABLE MEANWHILE WILL RISE TO NEARLY 2.00.

IF ANY ONE AGREES WITH ME PLEASE COMMENT.

SA Bok 09:55 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Now Durch CB guys .. another idiot says minor rate cut will not help ... These guys are clueless everythime they opeen thier mouths ... No Volatilty they want from Meeting well what say you they got ? Like Beijing Road says crazy markets ...

hk ab 0.88 09:53 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
chf is drawing a lot of my attention.....

1.24 seems good enough bargain.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:45 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
my suggest is like this :
it's time for exit your buy eur/usd , because gbp/usd have get 1.8340.
ICT ML..
step-3. nice done for gbp/usd at 1.8340

beijing road 09:45 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Raise stop again from 1.8140 to 1.8194,locking in 250pips profit. I got to love the crazy market like this.

Sofia BV 09:43 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
waterloo newbie, lot's of political influence over eur/usd these days,probably hk is right,stop and watch for a while.

hk ab 0.88 09:40 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
waterloo newbie 09:34 GMT January 21, 2004


you should drink a glass of ice water and stop trading for a week.

Mkt is still there.

London Paul_ex trader 09:37 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
waterloo newbie: Perhaps flip a coin to decide (joking)

waterloo newbie 09:34 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
hi..everyone.. these day drive me crazy.. wanna some help.. who can tell me should buy eur and GBP or sell them.. cuz u guys know in 3 days they down 500 pips more..and back 300 pips in one day ... i don't know what to do now..still should buy ? target eur 1.2800 above?

thx

ICT ML 09:24 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Jon, missed it, wasn't paying attention either.......but will take it on the pullback

Tokyo Jon 09:21 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML, Did you get in on the GBPJPY, I missed entry due to internet failure, 16M connection and they still cant get it right.

GBPJPY, should give us entry, 195.60

Brisbane L 09:21 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
The Deutsche Bundesbank is calling for an option to sell 600 metric tons of gold over the next five years under a new central bank gold agreement, a spokesman said Wednesday.

Under the Central Bank Gold Agreement of September 1999, which includes the Eurosystem, U.K., Sweden and Switzerland, central banks have agreed to limit gold sales to a total of 400 tons a year over five years. rts.

chicago jack 09:21 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
I see euro at the top of a down channel, similar to the set up at 1.2899. anyone else see this?

Tallinn viies 09:17 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
as you heard probably: BUBA on the offer at 1,2670 fwiw

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:16 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML.
step-2. nice done on usd/chf.

beijing road 09:14 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
My stupid trade is best only when the market becomes crazy.

melbourne farmacia 09:08 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Just booked profits at 0.7740 from 0.7535 Aud/Usd as things look over done fwiw.

beijing road 09:07 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Raise stop from1.2480 to 1.2530 locking in 60pips profit.

ICT ML 09:05 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
cable trend line @ 1.8300.......could pause it a bit, already did once.......need to get through though.....

beijing road 09:03 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
haha, I got new year present!

TASSIE JUDDA 09:03 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
I SENSE THIS IS JUST A TECHNICAL REBOUND TO FAIL AND BELEIVE MAJORS WILL GO MUCH LOWER THAN THERE PREVIOUS RETRACEMENTS, BEFORE THE MEGA-BLAST TOWARDS NEW HIGHS, LONG FOR NOW , SHORT IN DUE COURSE, GOOD LUCK.......

hk ab 0.88 09:03 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Revdax, looks like the Macau effect take a bit longer time to prevail.

Tallinn viies 08:59 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
MMS: Buba"s Meister sees no need for euro sales or ECB to cut...
fwiw

TASSIE JUDDA 08:58 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
GOOD EVENING BRISBANE, HOPE ALL IS WELL AND YR MAKING A SQUILLION

Mumbai jay 08:58 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Looking at the viciousness of the upmove from the lows seen after Trichet's verbal intervention, one feels that perhaps even actual intervention selling will be seen as opportunities to load up on the currencies(a la Japan). May be, we need more than verbal intervention, like say, concerted intervention or interest rate moves. BC, your thoughts will be highly appreciated.

SA Bok 08:56 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Are these guys grom the ECB and Euro Fin Ministers Idiots ....

Answer - Yes

Ina* mr.co'z 08:53 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
strong bullish wave now for eur/usd & gbp/usd...

Brisbane L 08:53 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
TASSIE JUDDA good evening

Tallinn viies 08:53 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
hi
there were talks yesterday that move on cable was influenced by India, who moves some of their reserves from dollars to sterling

Brisbane L 08:52 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR NOW! ECB's Liebscher: intervention remains tool but cannot say beforehand why or when

TASSIE JUDDA 08:52 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
LOWER TOPS ARE EXPECTED, DON'T GET FOOLED BY THE RALLY IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED ...........

Cairo MDR 08:51 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
my scenario for today was almost right...
but i closed my long and waiting for a new entry at amlower level during european session
TIA

Moscow Hawk 08:49 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
1.2675-00(10)

Moscow Hawk 08:48 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
MDR, it is important will 1.2675 -7000(10) limit the upside or not. Higher the move 1.2775-00 is possible.

Good luck

Moscow Hawk 17:51 GMT January 20, 2004
I do not like the current picture in EUR/USD. Lack of retracement after such a considerable move and trading in the upper part of daily range are definitely are the moments to note. From the current perspective move above 1.2600 and test of 1.2675-00 does not look so unlikely. Although last Friday I planned entry for fresh shorts in EUR/USD in the 1.2540-640 area I will hold over an idea to short the pair till next week or better levels (around 1.28).

chicago cal 08:47 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
most likely we're going to 1.2750

Cairo MDR 08:41 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
any ideas about where is ur targeting now...?????
TIA

chicago cal 08:39 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
now that euro's broke north as just predicted, the only thing we have to worry about is if the "heinekens are in the fridge, and that their cold"

ICT ML 08:37 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Nice one Raden...you and I are thinking the same today

Vilnius george 08:36 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Warsaw MZ 08:26
as you mentioned, ECB is saying about intervencion. We have tested 1.29 eur/usd, that's not enought for ecb. soo we have even more too go to see them. when did boj started his intervencion ? after hudge 1000 pips rally over couple days. . soo sell usd and relax. gl

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:35 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
nice done for gbp/usd.
ICT ML.. step one have nice passed in day trade.

tassie judda 08:31 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
JUST GOT A WHISPER THAT RESERVE WILL NOT BE RAISING RATES IN FEBRUARY, HOPE THIS HELPS

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:30 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
for gold players.
when at 412.35.(buy signal)
buy now to get 417.00 with stp at 407.00

chicago cal 08:28 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
no nonsense here; buy cable above 1.8300 for 1.8500 I believe I posted this 2 weeks ago, it happened then and it will happen again

Warsaw MZ 08:26 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ECB"S LIEBSCHER quoted in an interview with Italian daily Sole 24 Ore saying that F/X INTERVENTION remains an option for CBs to use, but officials will not flag such action and provide any details on when or how such a move would take place. His comments follow others from ECB members recently, which have increasingly hinted at growing signs of distress over recent Euro appreciation, though up until now the ECB has relied on verbal massaging to take the steam out of the Eur/dlr rally. It is worth putting such a comment into the context of CBrs never ruling anything out as an option.
Source: www.informagm.com

Helsinki iw 08:25 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ EUR/NOK finally broke 8,65 and should now be on it�s
way toward 8,73 and 8,80 after some zigging and zagging
around here. NOK/SEK has broken lower after some consoli-
dation and is looking good as a medium term short towards
parity. EUR/SEK will see pension fund outflows next week
which could give a good shorting opportunity both on that
cross and NOK/SEK.

Still like the dollar stronger as part of a consolidation pre- G7,
but ran three stops myself yesterday, so don�t take my word
for it. IMHO

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:24 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf when at 1.2460
still on the sell signal (ready to move down).
sell here to get 1.2390 with stp at 1.2518

ICT ML 08:24 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
got another one of those cute hourly H&S possibilities on cable and euro .........I'd say it is about half way through the head now. So failure to break to new highs brings the right shoulder and arm into possibility later on....just fwiw, an observation

kuwait RH 08:22 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:01 GMT
thks. since 3 days my stop level decisions have been going against me. For instance, today I touched my stoploss in USD-CHF short at 1.2500. glgt

kuwait RH 08:22 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:01 GMT
thks. since 3 days my stop level decisions have been going against me. For instance, today I touched my stoploss in USD-CHF short at 1.2500. glgt

kuwait RH 08:22 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:01 GMT
thks. since 3 days my stop level decisions have been going against me. For instance, today I touched my stoploss in USD-CHF short at 1.2500. glgt

kuwait RH 08:22 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:01 GMT
thks. since 3 days my stop level decisions have been going against me. For instance, today I touched my stoploss in USD-CHF short at 1.2500. glgt

kuwait RH 08:22 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:01 GMT
thks. since 3 days my stop level decisions have been going against me. For instance, today I touched my stoploss in USD-CHF short at 1.2500. glgt

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:22 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd when at 0.7728
buy to get 0.7759 with stp at 0.7665
buy again at 0.7685 (if posible and not yet get 0.7759) with stp at 0.7665 too.

Brisbane L 08:17 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
The Confederation of Danish Industries said the weakened dollar and other negative currency developments will result in the loss of 74,000 jobs between 2003 through 2006,
The manufacturing group estimates that 450,000 Danish jobs are tied to the dollar and other currencies pegged to the dollar.
business daily Borsen
http://www.borsen.dk

chicago cal 08:16 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
cairo mdr 8:10;

agree 100%: buying euro's on an upwards break (above 1.2630) is a very easy, low-risk trade today

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:15 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
In my analysis usd/jpy when at 107.03 have given sell signal.
sell at 107.03 with stp at 107.40 for tgt 106.38.

Tokyo Jon 08:12 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
beijing road, sorry mate but havent looked at it yet I will give you some ideas in a lttle while but the jpy is going to range for a moment, giving me an ideal time to work out its new moves. It took my weekly forecast and completed it yesterday, still looking for 198 and then giving us a go above 199 in long term

Cairo MDR 08:10 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
euro was rejected twice by 2625 this monring
looking for a small downmove max. towards 2550 before it tries any further upmove...
if 2625 is broken in third attempt this will open the gate towards further gains
I am waiting for a buy signal.
TIA

Brussels shrimp 08:09 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Good morning after yesterday no event and some pips lost in favour of another speculator ,i repeat same move after consolidation at 1.2620/30 shorted the e for a move to the 1.25 area with a s/l at 1.2670 .

beijing road 08:08 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Jon: welcome back. How abt eur/jpy plz?

ICT ML 08:06 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
THANKS jon. You are the Yen Master.....might join you

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:04 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd at when at 1.2610..it's time for up.
if be carried to 1.2591 is no problem (posible move up from there).

Tokyo Jon 08:02 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
hi all,
looking to buy gbpjpy around 195.10/20 for target 197.60 over the next few days. Stop is under 194.70 where reverse to 193.10
this is my approach for the coming session

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:01 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Kuwait RH,
day trade.
buy eur/usd at 1.2616 to get 1.2687 with stp at 1.2544
if get sell signal for day trade, I will inform you to caut reverse.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:58 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML.
okay...day trade.
buy gbp/usd at 1.8248 to get 1.8285 with stp 1.8221
buy gbp/usd at 1.8248 to get 1.8330 with stp at 1.8169

I will inform you when get sell signal for day trade.

MONACO OGA 07:54 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 21/01
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (Currently 1.2590), 200 pips higher than on yesterday opening. The pair retraced sharply up in yesterday session as we expected. For today, we get two supportive zones at 1,2560 and 1,2500 . 1,2625 appears as a crucial resistance, and if broken expect 1,2760. We are pretty neutral today after yesterday's sharp moves, nevertheless we still believe in the uptrend with a long term target around 1,3500.

Data out today:
UK BOE minutes released 09.30 GMT
EZ HICP Dec M/M expected 0.4% 11.00 GMT
EZ labour cost Y/Y Q3 expected 3.0% 11.00 GMT
US housing starts Dec expected 1950K 13.30 GMT
US building permits Dec expected 1875K 13.30 GMT

Gold around 412,50 , with WTI February at 36,18.

***JPY***
Usd/Jpy (currently 107,05), hedging slightly lower on USD general weakness . Traders look concerned about any BOJ action, support currently stands at 106,50 while resistance should emerge at 107,80 where exporters offers are related.EUR/JPY (135,00) following EUR/USD price action. We see some resistance around 135,50 for today while support now lies at 134,50.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1.8240) experienced a very impressive rally yesterday (almost 400 pips). We expect the pair to rebound today on 1.8210 and 1.8150 to test 1,8300 resistance.
EUR/GBP (0.6915), we are looking for a 0,6900-0,6930 range today. For the medium term we still favour the downside.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

lDN 07:51 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
RBos says the charts hint of a period of range- trading ahead of Feb 6-7 G7 meeting. In the case of EUR/USD, channel top and threat of intervention makes test above 1.29-1.30 unlikely, decent support at 1.23-1.2275 should cover the dnside. Bank favors selling rallies toward 1.2650, says until Feb 7, risk is toward 1.2050 rather than 1.3300. REUTERS NEWSS

Ina-Tasik mr.co'z 07:50 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
hello all..! hello Panca ..! in this time my analysis

eur/usd resistance at 1.2650 if break will get 1.2690(minor), 1.2780(mayor).
or sell if a break 1.2550/30 t/p 1.2470

gbp/usd resistance 1.8275 if a break will get 1.8335-1.8355
or sell if a break 1.8120 target 1.8050(minor), 1.7950(mayor)

usd/chf (om Ikay) break 1.2600 will going to target 1.2734-1.2820. or sell if a break 1.2420 to target 1.2350(minor), 1.2285-1.2250(mayor).

a lot of support and resistance in this time. become we better enter at major level resistance and support.
Use the support and resistance above to Stop Loss or Cut Switch your posisition if contrary instruct . imo ... gl / gt...thx all...

hk ab 0.88 07:42 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
filled.

add one more short to the original 3 lots.

hk ab 0.88 07:40 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
2 more pips to go!!

kuwait RH 07:38 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi
Hi, Am long in eur, needing 1.2620 minimum to square. Do you think 1.2540 a good stop pls? GLGT

Brisbane L 07:37 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
But being serious think the market has to watch major intervention because thats what the Specs that are driving this Euro higher are going to get even though the FED say they wont they will do it on behalf of the ECB like they do the BOJ and the BOE will stick in their penny worth

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 07:37 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Now I know why I love Aussies.........right on mate

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 07:36 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
if we begin to monetize our debt (sp)

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 07:35 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
PAR..........you are one hundred percent correct.....although it appears that ole greenpants and our CB have now decided to just take over.......god help us is we beging to menetize our debt...........good point PAR

Brisbane L 07:32 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
MIAMI EasyMoneyFX you mean rent-a-mouth I suppose she could come in useful for a few thngs with a bit of imagination AHAHAH

PAR 07:31 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Problem is not that European interest are too high but that American interests are TOO LOW. With a US economy growing above 8%, unemployment down to 5.7%, a booming US stock market, a US productivity miracle, and non-core inflation (which is what people actually pay) rising. Why are US interest rates at 1%. Every central banker would raise rates. Not Greenspan since he is not an independent central banker but a cheerleader for the Bush reelection campaign.

ICT ML 07:31 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Road.....don't worry bout me right now, I am flat...biased to the upside at the moment, but market looks like it needs NY guys to make the decision for them..

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 07:29 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Maybe I can find "Maria" and go with her....hahahh

Liverpool CE 07:28 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Orlando
I cannot log on to censored at the moment. You should have the latest update by now.

Brisbane L 07:28 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
MIAMI EasyMoneyFX no reason you cant get in , you dont have to be a Celebrity or Royalty - Just say your with CNBC and your in. AHAHA

beijing road 07:27 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ML" Hope you not to hit my stoploss, lol.

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 07:26 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Thank you.......and thank you all.....your all a great group to speak with and Good Trading tonight in Europe....lets see if we get our usual 50PIP Europe Rip followed by the us 100

beijing road 07:24 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
EasyMoneyFX: 30-50 vs 60-80pips. It all depends on chart reading.

ICT ML 07:21 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Hellooooo...Raden Mas!.....
lets make some $$$$$$$ this sesssion.

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 07:20 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane.....your right on point.......now we have the super Moron.........Greenpants......like I said in my earlier post....I will try and sneak into the G7 here in Florida.....I do know a Managing Dir. at Goldman Sachs.....maybe I can get invited and will report back men...hahaha

Orlando 07:20 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Buenos Aires: can't seem to login, now getting 'server temporarily unavailable.'

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:16 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
hello..Europe session..!!

Dubai UAE 07:16 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Yahoo! Shaiful is now dealing!!! its about time! victor pogi

Brisbane L 07:15 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
MIAMI EasyMoneyFX typical of CBs they over kill on hikes dont think old PM Jonny wont be too pleased with an election coming up in about August ,thats one thing electorate hates and dont forget in a hurry, could really scotch his chances at the polls , which would be a shame for a miserable 25bpts. pathetic really. thats how old man Bush lost his election isnt it .

Buenos Aires Argenfx 07:14 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
To Orlando: What kind of problems ?

Calcutta Vikram 07:14 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Beijing Raod.....I do that a bit too. Congratulations on your Cable Long!

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 07:12 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Beijing.........how small is your tight first stop and then your slightly larger stop..........

Orlando 07:11 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
anyone having trouble w/ C.M.S. ?

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 07:08 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane.........maybe, just maybe a rate cut????

beijing road 07:08 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram :
Agree with you on opening with tight stoploss. At the begining of a new position, I always do like this. After that, if i find i got in the right boat, "sometimes" I adjust stoploss to a little bit wider than the previous for big profits.

Brisbane L 07:06 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   

Well this lot of numbers out today doesnt say the economy is over heating infact the opposite , perhaps a rate cut is in the offering !!
Australia Nov leading index +2.6%, +3.1% trend, coincident index 5%, Q3 growth below trend, slowing seen in mid-'04.
Australia Nov lending finance down, dwelling purchases -2.8% m/m.
Australia Dec motor vehicle sales -4.8% m/m.

hk ab 0.88 07:05 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
come on, give me 7718.....

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 07:05 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram.......what do you personally try and trade for, in PIPS that is and time in trade...........

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 07:02 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram.....agreed

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 07:01 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
one at a time of course

Calcutta Vikram 07:01 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
EasymoneyFX.....my post was not in response to your earlier posts, Friend. In fact I saw your posts AFTER I put in mine. I've done both - worked with no stops and then with too tight Stops. I'd rather go with the latter than with the former. BUT........To each his own. Cheers

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 07:01 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram....what I meant was not a 10% loss but only trade 10% of available funds, i.e.,$5,000,000, trade 5/100 lots or $500,000

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 06:58 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Wow

hk revdax 06:56 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 06:52 //10% loss where i am means you no longer have a job.

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 06:56 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram.....also Risk Managers at most Hedge Funds are very conservative and will not take the risks that I do as a private trader.

hk revdax 06:55 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 06:49 //The tension on the traders to perform is intense. Unfortunately there is no mechanical system around by which one could perform mechanically to make the system work out in the long run. And their jobs are on the line.

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 06:52 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram...your point is well taken;however,most stops are placed to tight for beginning traders and they are taken out although they were right.....a good rule is to never trade more that 10% of your capital and be able to stand whatever drawdown your own personal psychological makeup can stand.Remember,the trading houses will go "Gunning for Stops" and trade against their own clients......I guess trading is really an art, combined of course with all the Tech&Fund BS.......the trick is to be able to stand the drawdown depending if you are a Scalper, Swing, or Position Trader.....look at that spike on the GBP just now.....at the top of the channel on Daily, top of Bollingers......so would you use this op to add more shorts......again, thats why wer are traders......I personally do not use stops, because I'm rarely in a position more than a few min....sometimes 30

Calcutta Vikram 06:49 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Bagkok EB.....yes. And since I have no interest in meeting their bills, I am staying out of the market today :-)

Calcutta Vikram 06:47 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Hi Revdax. Good to see you and Happy Year of the Monkey to you (and all our Chinese friends here).

Since EVERYONE has to go through this learning process, paying Tution Fees to the market, I thought I might post what I did. Cheers

beijing road 06:47 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
hAHA, CABLE is going crazy again, now raise stop to 1.8145 locking 200pips.

Ldn 06:46 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
December 3-month Eurodollar futures contract has close inverse correlation with USD moves vs EUR, other major European units. Daily technicals including MACD, RSI show Eurodollars likely to move lower toward 97.43 lower edge of uptrend channel on daily chart; ended in Chicago at 98.085. If history any guide, such implied rise in short-term yields - consistent with large Fed tightening late in 2004 - should be associated with major USD rise.
dj

Bangkok EB 06:46 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 06:38

And besides those good points, those dealers in early London have bills to pay also...

hk revdax 06:43 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 06:38 //Good post. Anyone who could do 12-20% per year with small stops could lend himself a good job as a fund manager anywhere. Your friend trader is NO trader. Anyone who does not know the value of a stop is no trader but a trading player...lol

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 06:39 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Bangkok......the msg at 0615 said, "shouting only makes you look like more of an idiot"........what was that all about...I thought maybe it was because I was using Capital ltrs....sorry...did not mean to offend anyone

Calcutta Vikram 06:38 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Please excuse the long post, Friends, but I thought I would share this with the Forum

No Stop Loss = Suicide
----------------------
Its a lesson learnt the hard way but every Trader HAS to learn to use Stop Losses, because there are no guarantees in the market. No Trader has any control over where the market will go. He has control over ONLY one thing - his own actions - where he enters the market, where he places his Stop Loss, where he takes profit.

Religiously placing Stop Losses enables him to prevent losses and emotions from running out of hand. Scientifically and systematically placed Stop Losses are part of the normal cost of business. They can be handled. But when a Stop Loss is not placed at the very outset, there can be severe financial and psychological damage, which can force the Trader out of the market.

A True Story
-------------
A Trader had been making good money through November/ early December, selling the Dollar against the Euro, Yen and Australian Dollar, going with the Trend. In the second hald of December, he decided that the Euro was close to peaking and bucked the trend. At 1.21 he sold TWICE the amount of Euros he had been earlier buying. He placed no Stops because he was sure of his view and he reckoned there was enough time for the market to prove him right before end-Feb, which is when his Contract matures.

At 1.23 he was advised to cut the position since there were chances of the Euro rising to 1.25-1.26. At 1.25 he was told of the chances of 1.28-1.29-1.30. It was suggested that he could sell afresh at 1.28, which might be a peak for the Euro.

The position was kept intact all the way to the peak of 1.2898, and finally cut at 1.26 today morning, when there are at least 50% chances of the Euro correcting downwards by end-Feb.

Risk Management/ Money Management
---------------------------------
Trading is not about forecasts, indicators, "Systems". It is about 2 things. Firstly, are you willing to cut losses or not? If not, you are in for trouble. If Yes, the only question then is where and how. This is Risk Management.

The Second important thing is - how much do you buy or sell? Trading huge sizes (in comparison to your loss absorbing capacity) is a recipe for disaster, even if you use Stops. Trades have to be optimally sized such that losses can be kept in control and profits can be maximised, to the extent possible. This is Money Management.

Bangkok EB 06:36 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
SHOUTING? WHAT SHOUTING?

hk ab 0.88 06:35 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
maybe buy some eur/gbp here.....

pending.

hk ab 0.88 06:34 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo will not close, 'cos it's a Chinese, not Japanese New Year

Perth 06:29 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Figures point to economic slowdown
By Finance reporter Adrian Thirsk

There are predictions of a mid-year economic slowdown in Australia following the latest research from Westpac and the Melbourne Institute.

The Leading Index of Economic Activity has dropped to an annualised growth rate of 2.6 per cent in November, well below the long-term trend.

The previous month's result has been revised down substantially as well.

Westpac global head of economics Bill Evans says there is evidence the November interest rate increase has had an impact.

"This measure today shows that the growth rate fell below the trend growth rate back in September... which is pointing to a slowing in the economy from around about the middle of this year, rather than the second half," Mr Evans said.

"So it is bringing forward the timing ... at which the economy will start to slow."

Belgrade Knez 06:29 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   

Thanks HK AB.
Which day(s) Tokyo will be closed?

hk ab 0.88 06:28 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
I like the number 7716/7718.......

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 06:27 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Bangkok........what do you mean by shouting?....if that comment was directed at me..........

hk ab 0.88 06:25 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
22/1 is the first day of Chinese Lunar New Year of Monkey!

Belgrade Knez 06:23 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   

Can someone tell me what date is Chinese New Year?
Thanks.

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 06:23 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Bangkok.....I'm not shouting....sorry

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 06:21 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Bangkok........that is the reason I do not use stops......I will take the drawdown and play the game......like Texas Holdem....I'm all in on a trade and I know when to pull the trigger...............

Safes eml 06:20 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
I would like to inquire if anyone has information or thoughts on the Eur/PLN.

hk ab 0.88 06:20 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ML, ask jf.

Bangkok EB 06:19 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Shouting only makes you look like more of an idiot.

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 06:18 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
i AGREE ict ml

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 06:18 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
SYDNEY....AUD USUALLY MOVES A LITTLE SLOWER....NOW A SLIGHT BOUNCE.9/18 sma CROSS STILL ON 5 MIN....CAN COVER HERE OR JUST WAIT....I WILL USUALLY LAYER SHORTS 10-15 pips APART....i'M ALREADY SHORT.....SO LETS SEE WHO FOLLOWS WHO.........

Sydney Ge11Ja 06:17 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
this should be norm for next couple of days as most of Asia will be off for Chinese New Year

ICT ML 06:14 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Dealers just jerking everyone around right now IMHO...

Bangkok EB 06:12 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Nice stop hunt...

Sydney Ge11Ja 06:12 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Miami

disappointed we didnt see more from aud... thinking double top up here for 0.7630-40

Brisbane L 06:10 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
BC thanks puts that makes it clearer

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 06:08 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
LAS-LGB.........I hope everyone followed my lead on the shorts a few minutes ago........EUR,GBP, AND AUD...WE NAILED IT

hk ab 0.88 06:07 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
maybe due to the gun from bc :)

Sydney Ge11Ja 06:06 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR what happened there?

LAX-LGB SNP 06:05 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
THAT's gotta be the understatement of this week ;-)

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 06:03 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai...........good plan and analysis

hk ab 0.88 06:02 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
bc//wonderful and right on time help as always.

Wishing you a "watery" monkey year.

GT*!*

Bangkok EB 06:00 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
High bid in EUR/USD pls

shanghai bc 05:58 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   

AB -- Good afternoon..As far as medium-term traders are concenred,Dollar bounce is not over yet..Eur/Usd,Gold and Aud are still in the process of correcting its overstretch which may last for a few more weeks or longer..It is always the market bias at a given time that matters,not the absolute level ..Not the right time to buy and sit on long Eur/Usd,Gold and Aud/Usd yet..The time will come a bit later..And in the meantime,selling the bounce of those pairs may be a preferred strategy for a bit higher Dollar bounce..Good trades..

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:55 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Hello........has everyone gone to bed......

Brisbane L 05:52 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
National Australia Bank Ltd. (NAB) Wednesday said the full extent of further losses in relation to unauthorized foreign exchange options trading are still unknown. In a letter to shareholders, chairman Charles Allen said fictitious trades incurred by foreign currency traders totaling A$185 million have been fully identified but a revaluation of the remaining foreign currency portfolio is now being undertaken. We have identified that some additional losses will arise but the full extent of such additional losses will not be known for several days,saying it was too early in the investigation by Australia's largest bank.

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:51 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
LDN........thanks for the news

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:49 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Oh No, Mr. Bill, up 15 PIPS on EUR

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:47 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Good night Hialeah.......

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:47 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Traders......time for a good laugh....the G7 is here next month in Boca Raton, Florida......agent Maxwell Smart here will attempt to infiltrate vis-a-vis a friendly Cocktail party and will report back to the Group.....us, I mean.......if I can get in that is.........I can just see Security now, you are a what, PRO FX TRADER.....WILL PROBABLY INVOKE "HOMELAND SECURITY AND YOU WILL NEVER HERE FROM ME AGAIN...HAHAH

Hialeah Fxdomi 05:42 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Miami, thanks for the advise, i am going to bed now, put a short EUR/USD at 1.2645, stop at 1.2670, target 100 pips.
see you later, Long EUR/USD at 1.2500 if this points are hit.

Ldn 05:41 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL EUROPE
Otmar Issing, the influential chief economist of the European Central Bank, said warnings to financial markets that the bank started to express nearly two weeks ago were being heeded. But in another attempt to talk down the euro, Mr. Issing cautioned that driving the currency too high, too fast was "risky." Verbal interventions, Mr. Issing said Tuesday in testimony before a committee of European Parliament, had "contributed to make market participants think that this might not be a one-way street . . . This might be risky and so new reflections I think in exchange markets have started."
Mr. Issing's warning comes after a new policy on the currency was hammered out Monday by finance ministers from the 12-nation euro zone and the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet. Almost since its inception in 1999, European officials have stressed their desire for a "strong and stable" euro, a strategy developed to support the currency as it fell during its early years. The euro -- the world's No. 2 currency after the dollar -- is now more than 50% higher than its low against the dollar, and some fear this ascent threatens the region's nascent recovery.
If the euro continues to rise, the ECB -- which has the final say on the euro -- would have several options. One option would be intervention directly in the currency markets by selling euros or buying dollars, a measure the ECB isn't ruling out. Signs are emerging that the strong euro could have negative economic consequences. Optimism among German investors and analysts slipped in January, a move that economists attributed to the strengthening euro. ZEW research institute's confidence indicator measured 72.9 in January from 73.4 in December, below expectations of 73.2. The statement late Monday was designed to outline the euro zone's position to financial markets and U.S. policy makers. The officials came up with the position in preparation for next month's meeting with counterparts from the Group of Seven industrialized nations. Euro-zone officials hope at that time to secure a unified stance by G-7 nations in support of their position.

"It is decisive that in advance of the Group of Seven meeting . . . that there is a common European position," German Finance Minister Hans Eichel told journalists in Brussels Tuesday.

ICT ML 05:40 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
another thing I see on cable....trying to break back into the 4 hr channel it fell out of here. So channel plays say sell a failure to break back above......

So Pick Your Poison today I guess

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:37 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Hialeah......just don't trade at 1 or 2% Margins....that is suicide for someone like you or for anyone for that matter....most Pros use no more than 25:1 or 4% most FX Desks only 10:1

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:35 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Ah yes....shorted EUR at 1.2621....plus GBP and AUD...soooo....lets see what Interbank MM are up to

Hialeah Fxdomi 05:35 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:30 GMT January 21, 2004

3 years now with FOREX, and previously stock trading 1.5 years. not much, but a lot of learning experience.

Hialeah Fxdomi 05:33 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:28 GMT January 21, 2004

Ok, I understand now, by the way it is nice to have a drink overlooking at that scenery, specially on weekends when we are not trading.

Ldn 05:32 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Terrorism No Longer Tops Agenda At Davos

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:30 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Hialeah........how long have you been trading?

ICT ML 05:29 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
QF...Intellichart desktop version..subscription only

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:29 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Nassau.....Intellichart and my own Prop.Shop stuff

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:28 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Hialeah......no.....I live in Miami.....who would want to live in NYC..hahah....I just like having a drink at the new Mandarin Oriental overlooking Columbus Circle and Central Park....

Nassau QF 05:25 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ML and Easymoney, what charts do you use?
Intellichart?
Broker provided charts?

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:25 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
04:47 GBP/USD Holding Steady Near 1.8200, RBI Flows Seen Over For Now] Tokyo,
Jan 21. A switch in reserves from USD into GBP by India was a major factor in
cable's surge higher overnight. These flows are seen to be over for now but the
aftereffects are still being felt with GBP/USD up as high as 1.8215/20 in Asia
earlier, just shy of the 1.8219 seen in New York. The pair is currently holding
just under these highs around 1.8200, with dealers still looking to take
advantage of any further pushes higher in the pair. GBP is reaping the rewards
of expectations of another base rate hike. The pendulum seems to be swinging in
favor currently, following the CPI release yesterday and also comments from
influential U.K. parliamentarians hinting that an interest rate hike may be in
the offing. Resistance above 1.8210-20 is seen at 1.8265, the high Friday.
1.8300 above is 61.8% Fibo retracement of 1.8580-1.7825. Support below is seen
firm at 1.8140-50. Cable currently trades 1.8210/15. --Haruya Ida



Copyright �2004 IFR Americas. All rights reserved.

Hialeah Fxdomi 05:23 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Miami, Easymoney, yes there is another pal from Miami that i do not remember his nickname or initials, Thanks for replying, I was just curious since I live in Miami Lakes was hoping to find a friend to meet locally and have some conversation, learn from each others and bring out some good plans in this area. but I guess you are living in NY, at the moment, right?

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:20 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Hialeah.....also new to Forum.....some really good traders here

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:18 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Hialeah....thanks for asking......is somelse from Miami? This is
my NYC Trading Name........live in the Grove...commute to NYC

Hialeah Fxdomi 05:14 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:10 GMT January 21, 2004
Hello! How far are you from Hialeah, FL, are you new to this forum or just the same Miami but different initials. just curious

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:10 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Traders........remember....LDN LIKES TO RIP 50 PIPS AND THEN USA ANOTHER 100.....SOOOOO......EVERYONE WATCH OUT

Brisbane L 05:07 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
The New Zealand dollar closed sharply higher Wednesday, riding on the euro's overnight gains, but dealers said it was too soon to say if the local currency has reclaimed its uptrend after dropping three U.S. cents last week,I am still cautious until we see the euro breach key technical levels of 1.2630 (versus the dollar)," said Richard Yetsenga, currency strategist at Deutsche Bank. "I think the Kiwi is still vulnerable, but at this stage I'd wait another 24 hours and see if the euro can prove itself," he said. Initial support for the Kiwi is likely at US$0.6640, then US$0.6610, but "it's hard to be very firm on these levels given recent breaches," Payn added. Deutsche Bank's Yetsenga said a pullback toward mid-US$0.6500 levels would provide good Kiwi buying opportunity for those with medium-term views.
NZPNz

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:06 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
hk...I agree put out some shorts........

hk revdax 05:05 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 04:45 GMT //imo...people should not go long on european ccy any more today.

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:04 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Nassau....lazyMktMakers creating some excitement........

Ldn 05:04 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
OECD urges slower UK public spending

chicago jack 05:02 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
the 62 fib retracement has just completed, now what for the euro?

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 05:01 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Nassau.....either a half/yard or yard of short covering.

Nassau QF 05:00 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Why did US dollar fall so much just then?

beijing road 04:59 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Haha, always like crazy market!

Orlando 04:53 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Anyone doing +27/-23 w/ USD/CHF?

beijing road 04:51 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
My stupid "endless trend" seems to go well now.LOL.

Ldn 04:51 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Ministers signal rise of euro must endEuropean finance ministers on Monday expressed their fears about the euro's sharp long-term rise against the dollar, in a signal that they feel the single currency has climbed far enough.

ICT ML 04:45 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
revdax.......haven't decided yet. And don't know it is even valid yet...your opinion?

hk revdax 04:42 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 04:40 GMT //please include the stops in your plan...tia

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 04:42 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish...well I have P&F equity charts on Digital Equipment from 1971....haha...actively in FX Spot for the last
Five years after being an Equity trader for tiny's, eighths, and quarters, i.e.,say, 2000 shs x 0.25 (L or S) is US$500,twenty thirty trades everyday....then decimals....I left and here I am...the only place to be is Spot FX.......

ICT ML 04:40 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Think todays plan goes something like this......buy cable on a bounce off 1.8105 area for 1.8280 area, sell euro as a hedge if 1.8100 doesn't support, and SAR cable to short....
But 1.8150 really needs to hold for an upmove to be legit I think...HUMMMMM

but it all depends on where my 30 min stochastic pair is at LDN open.

Chicago Irish 04:35 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
How long have you been trading FX Miami?

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 04:35 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Toronto Dr.Unken Kat....sorry I was sending an e-mail....off the 5 min for quick 3-10 Pips

)toronto Dr Unken Kat 04:24 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
what timeframe? miami

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 04:05 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
So do I

hk ab 0.88 04:05 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
thanks and I use 4, 9 and 18 sma

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 04:03 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
hk ab....try using a SMA of 9/18 within Bollingers, when lower crosses higher good signal for quick short term scalp when looking at your MACD and Slow Stochs....good for AUD

sarasota jf 04:01 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
thats why they update manually outside of where the mkt actually is - but every persons job is to make money so you need to be smarter than them
euryen movement today will be important as orders not as aggressive and led to sideways movement

hk ab 0.88 03:59 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
bc, maybe a lot of friends here have asked. Howver, I would like to ask you which one is a more comfortable strategy towards aud? buy here seems buying top while selling takes a great deal of interest. Thanks for your opinion.

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 03:58 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Traders.......Economic numbers and MacroEcon are very important......always have your weekly calandar, know when the "numbers" come out......then react...try and stay out of a
trade just before "numbers"......Wednesday is "triple rollover"..do you all know the GBP trade?????........stay tuned...lets see who knows the answer..

Cairns OS 03:54 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Jan 21 forecasts/10 pairs at http://www.fxguide.net/

tokyo fxtrader 03:53 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
An explosive come back after few days retracement. Interestingly, both EURUSD and GBPUSD bounced right ahead of the 38.2% retracement that is likely the end of wave 4 for a final push to another high. Don't read too much into waves though.

However, things are not usually this simple. Expect a very complex consolidation between 1.21-1.23 to 1.27-1.29 for EURUSD. Buy in the lower bracket and sell in the upper bracket. For today and you already longed yesterday (or Friday), stop should be set below 1.2510 and take profit before 1.2680.

And GBPUSD, stop below 1.8100 and target 1.8300.
Stay aside for a day or two afterwards. Picture will become clearer if the bull trend has resumed or it's just a bull trap.

good luck.

beirut jb 03:51 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 03:31 GMT

hi mate

interesting indeed,

thank u, thanks God we have tech. analysis fundamental is very complex and long term also

GL GT

MIAMI EasyMoneyFX 03:48 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF
I can assure you that dealing desks "trade" against their clients and look for people who use "tight" stops, as a Professional Trader I DO NOT USE STOPS, JUST TRADE THE TRADE..........THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE FUTURES MKT WHERE THE "LOCALS" GO "Gunning for Stops"......enough said...just watch your trade...know your exit point BEFORE YOU GET IN NASSAU....JUST STAY WITH THE SPOT FX MKTS AND YOU WILL BE FINE...........GOOD ADVICE FROM ML....GOOD CALL AND GOOD TRADING EVERYONE........

SA Bok 03:34 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Gd Day all .. Asia sleeps .. think we may get some more USD selling as the market later in Ldn , NY look at State of Union Speech as expanding the GDP Deficit through more spending ..
Also lack of ECB , Fin Ministers to String EUR will prevail ..
Use Dips to add to longs and see you all at 1.3000.

Hope we see a good dip to bail a ugly USDCHF position .. LOL

GL to all

Brisbane L 03:31 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Interesting article...sorry about the sze
Buying Australian dollars against U.S. dollars has been a surefire way of making money over the past year, but signs are emerging that it might not be one-way traffic in 2004.
The Australian dollar, in line with other global currencies, suffered a pullback over the past few sessions as the U.S. dollar staged a comeback.
That comeback proved short-lived, but it did get market analysts thinking about how long the U.S. dollar will be out of favor.
The consensus view of the market is that the U.S. dollar has further to decline, a view premised on the weight of the twin deficits of large current account and fiscal shortfalls.
Last year, the U.S. dollar was also weighed down by a weak U.S. economy and share market and by geopolitical concerns.
However, the U.S. economy is powering back to life and market watchers are now reduced to talking about a jobless recovery, which is probably disingenuous as it is well known that employment is among the last things to turn around.
The U.S. share market is also robust and the outlook for corporate earnings is also brightening.
This begs the question: How long before serious portfolio flows start heading back to the U.S.?
The answer is that this has already started, but currency markets are slow to respond.
Looking back at the collapse of the high-tech bubble, it took a year for the U.S. dollar to finally start falling.
In fact, the Australian dollar's trough against the U.S. dollar was almost exactly a year after the Nasdaq Composite index started crumbling.
The twin deficits remain a weight on the U.S. dollar, but these issues have been ignored in the past and when reasons to buy U.S. assets become too compelling, the deficits will probably be ignored again.
Markets tend to ignore deficits when it suits them. Look at Australia, where a current account deficit higher than that of the U.S. as a percentage of gross domestic product did nothing to stop investors snapping up Australian dollars in 2003.
The other event that is likely, certainly by the second half of 2004, and which would signal the end of the U.S. dollar's demise, is a raising of interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
This would increase the attractiveness of the U.S. currency relative to others.
At the same time, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to have finished raising rates and may well be starting to face some pressure to cut them as the domestic economy slows from its recent strong growth.
This doesn't mean the Australian dollar is likely to fall sharply against the U.S. dollar in 2004.
There are still several factors that will support the Australian currency. These include a recovery in exports in line with global growth and a rebound in rural production after the drought, increasing commodity prices, and a still strong interest rate advantage, even if that advantage is slightly eroded over the year.
But what is becoming increasingly clear is that as more reasons emerge to buy U.S. dollars, this means reasons emerge to sell Australian dollars.
It is still quite possible that the Australian dollar will make a fresh high above the US$0.7813 reached recently, possibly even above US$0.8000.
But expecting it to hold these levels will probably be too optimistic.
It may also be the case that the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed at the end of last year for the Australian dollar to end 2004 at US$0.7300 may also be high.
Once the juggernaut that is the U.S. dollar finally reverses course, it will be difficult to stop.
Reuters/aDow

Bristol Stag 02:51 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Hello tonight. Cable - tight BB on my 30min chart. Anyone plz on whether up or down. Tks

ICT ML 02:48 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Road...thanks mate...every DOG has his day.....LOL

Brisbane L 02:32 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
National Australia Bank Hedging debt rises more as overseas investors react to Fitch negative watch, NAB 5-yr CDS hits 19.5 bps in Europe vs 17 bps yesterday.Europeans likely more concerned as NAB has more bonds there.

beijing road 02:30 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ML: YOU made the greatest call on cable's BB yesterday!

ICT ML 02:28 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
belden mb....1.2000 -1.1800

Liverpool CE 02:22 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML

Your 30 min 50 EMA worked out very nicely. I am sure the recipient of your "freebie" should be very grateful if he paid attention to it!

Bandung icha 02:19 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
morning raden... what is yr prediction for eur/yen today..mr co'z in tasikmalaya now, he said hello to you..GL/GP

belden mb 02:18 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML : is your non straight face low t/p around 1.2030 ?

Dublin CK 02:12 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Dllr/Yn:

I think a break above 110.60 is required to buck this current downward trend, however, I dont see that happening with what looks like to be a double bottom reversal by the Eur/$.

My thoughts are that 107.70 will be the high for the day, with the downward trend towards 105.00 continuing on later on the week.

GL/GT

hk ab 0.88 02:10 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
The cad move quite dependent on cad/jpy at the moment.

ICT ML 02:05 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Irish....... they spiked below a support line to get it, and my comstock feed says it never went there......

Soon we plan to deal directly with banks......can't wait.

Good luck tonight friends. I have hourly signals to buy $$$, 4 hour signals to "maybe" buy $$$...if the 4 hr signal turns out to be buy $$$, the targets are too low to post with a straight face right now.

So I will wait for London opening and play the herd direcction is the plan for now

Brisbane L 02:05 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Housing Industry Association argues 5.2% drop in investment lending for Australia housing in November completes "compelling case" for RBA to hold off on rate hike next month. Says result significant: "The outcome adds weight to an already large body of evidence that the leading indicators for the housing sector were coming off the boil towards the end of 2003."
SMH

Nassau QF 02:03 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
True.
Dumb me hah :)
Even read excerpts of it here.

Chicago Irish 02:02 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
QF:The text of the speech was released hours ago..........

Mtl Ash 02:02 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
hk ab: Thanks for trying to help on where CAD's going. appd :)

Nassau QF 02:00 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
State of Union Address now.
Lets see how market reacts, if at all.

Chicago Irish 01:53 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ML:I know a few places like that and they suck.......happily their days are numbered as the market will become more and more efficient and eventually those places will be out of business.

Brisbane L 01:52 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
U.K. MPs - Recent USD Fall Could Derail Global Recovery The statement is coming from a parliamentary committee overseeing the U.K. treasury. The committee is also reported to eyeing the need for interest rate hikes as the economy recovers
Reuters Newswire just reporting.

Nassau QF 01:47 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Sorry to hear about your stop loss getting hit by a small dip ML.

I think some dealers trade against their clients and bust their stops on purpose if they have a large position.

I have no concrete evidence but it seems a little suspicious sometimes when it does a straight vertical line to one PIP above or below your stop loss and then jumps right back to where it was before.

hk ab 0.88 01:47 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
cad move is still mysterious......

Brisbane L 01:43 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
ECB Issing's remarks verbal FX intervention has had substantial impact "suggesting that policy makers expect that such actions will suffice in curbing further EUR gains"

This mentioned overnight , I have a feeling this is what they are planning and why they are so laid back about the moves we see , one round of intervention could put the Euro donw to 115 with no problem and wipe out many positions , enough to scare of specs for quite a time - I dont thnk many in the market nowadays have been caught up in the real thing (intervention) its been a few years since the FED participated with the rest of the world.

indonesia opic 01:40 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
somebody please help me, what your opini about moved usd/jpy. Can it go up?

Al emm. 01:37 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Australian investor lending for construction of new dwellings rises 0.6% November,and falls 27.8% on-year, lending for owner-occupiers down 4.9% on month, numbers being affected by RBA rate hikes.

hk ab 0.88 01:26 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
sorry for all the post related to jpy....

slept late last night.


I think a big move is coming today again.

BOJ is mighty before our holidays.

Mtl Ash 01:24 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Somebody please tell what is seen as first resistance in USDCAD. Thanks

Melbourne Qindex 01:17 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative selling will increase if the market is trading below 1.2535.

Melbourne Qindex 23:00 GMT January 20, 2004
EUR/USD : the critical point of my daily cycle is located at 1.2597. The upper barrier is positioning at 1.2691 // 1.2722 and the lower barrier is expected at 1.2379 // 1.2410.


.. 1.2379 // 1.2410, 1.2441 ... 1.2472, 1.2504 ... 1.2566, 1.2597* ... 1.2660, 1.2691 // 1.2722 ...

Gen dk 01:09 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London Paul_ex trader 01:06 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Mark

Morning to you, clueless in Singapore! Wonderful. Timing is everything, what a wonderful game we play!

ICT ML 00:57 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
QF......hope you took note of my 30 min EMA50 and 200 activities last night.....and that Bolinger band sign result was beyond my wildest expectation.

Also my tip that cable was sitting on top of the daily channel it broke out of, and 4 hr EMA200 support..should have been clue enough of direction.

But when the dust settled, ML blew all the gains by shorting into the trendline, than waiting too long to SAR after it broke, than getting the SAR long position stop taken out by ONE stinkin' PIP on a shallow dip by my arch enemy dealer @ censored.

So we can be "right" all day long...but actualy timing our trades based on it sometimes is a whole different animal.......and today, well I have no clue yet.

Ldn 00:55 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Aussie new car sales fell 4.8% m/m, seasonally-adjusted against our expectations for small rise,, revised back data, December was third straight negative month. Sales have fallen 10.0% since the high in September. Combined with the earlier weakness,trend sales have now fallen for four months in a row, suggesting some consumer fatigue. ABC.

London Paul_ex trader 00:53 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
infact below 0.6905 gets sickly and 0.6894 is s/l.

London Paul_ex trader 00:52 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
it's sooo easy (and fatel) to talk your own book!

Chicago Irish 00:51 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Cheers Paul.Good hunting.

London Paul_ex trader 00:50 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP - the cross has been to .6950, which is 38.2% of the weekly high low (.7080-.6880 ish). Finding good support at 0.6900-05 level. looking like wants to go bid again, initial target 0.6970-0.70 Stops @0.6894 level.

Chicago Irish 00:44 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Paul:Whats your suggested s/l for the cross? Like the idea.

Chicago Irish 00:35 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Nassau:Having stop orders in place is discipline....not luck!

Nassau QF 00:32 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
I lost a little on thse EUR/USD and GBP/USD shorts yesterday but made a some of that back trading gold futures.

Luckily I had stop loss orders in place.

Brisbane L 00:32 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Australian new motor vehicle sales fell 4.8% to a seasonally adjusted

London Paul_ex trader 00:31 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
anyone else long eur/gbp for a rally to 0.6970-.7000??

Nassau QF 00:28 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
That's OK Raden.
A lot of people were initially expecting EUR and GBP to go down yesterday.

If you got all calls right, they'd have you in court like Martha Stewart :)

Brisbane L 00:26 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Mass panic grips Zimbabwe banks

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/3400369.stm

Hundreds of Zimbabweans have besieged several new banks to withdraw their money amid rumours they are going bust

saloniko 2004 nk...1.40 00:23 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
For those who dont like this post is better not read..

In my free last opinion Euro will Kiss 1.40

nk Saloniko...nk Thess/nk...nk Thessaloniki!

Then we can discuss it....always after the fact..

nk

LAX-LGB SNP 00:19 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
just a posted a question for any and all Metaquotes/DealSmart charting software users on the Help Forum ... thanks in advance, everyone :-)

hk revdax 00:18 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
FWIIW...The Macau indicator makes an interesting observation today. The observation is that the European ccy, headed by GBP, are topping out. Mind you, topping out does not necessarily reversal right away or it might mean just that...on the same day.

LAX-LGB SNP 00:17 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon 23:16 GMT January 20, 2004
gbpjpy, is still following plans to reach 194.30 or even after re-evaluating from last session, 193.99, where the upward daily candle should begin to form and reach a high around 195.80 to 196.40. The downside is however if it falls below 193.80 then should keep going to about 192.80

... welcome back & thanks for the view - very helpful right now

saloniko 2004 nk...1.40 00:14 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
In case same Big Brother"s have Wrong View 1.40 is not out of the view..


Welcome 1.40

nk.8!8.......@!@......@!*

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 00:11 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Nassau.
I was s_tupid yesterday. :-(
Hope not often.:-)

Melbourne Qindex 00:02 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:46 GMT January 20, 2004
EUR/USD : The upper barrier of 3-day cycle is located at 1.2539 // 1.2633 and my weekly cycle charts indicate that the market is now vibrating around the critical point at 1.2530 with an expected magnituse of +/- 104 pips, i.e. 1.2426 - 1.2634 for the time being.

Melbourne Qindex 23:35 GMT January 20, 2004
EUR/USD : My 5-day cycle charts indicate that the market is not stable and a barrier is expected at 1.2595 // 1.2690.

... 1.2405, 1.2500, 1.2595 // 1.2690*, 1.2785, 1.2880 ...

Melbourne Qindex 23:00 GMT January 20, 2004
EUR/USD : the critical point of my daily cycle is located at 1.2597. The upper barrier is positioning at 1.2691 // 1.2722 and the lower barrier is expected at 1.2379 // 1.2410.


.. 1.2379 // 1.2410, 1.2441 ... 1.2472, 1.2504 ... 1.2566, 1.2597* ... 1.2660, 1.2691 // 1.2722 ...

Buenos Aires Argenfx 00:02 GMT January 21, 2004 Reply   
To Athens: Thank you Sir, and good trading.