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Forex Forum Archive for 01/25/2004

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Dallas GEP 23:59 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
This may not be MOF but it does look like systematic buying.

Dallas GEP 23:58 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
BTW I am long USD/JPY from 106.63 on Friday and I picked up a long here earlier tonight @ 106.48. Targey is 107.20 but I will trail stop soon

Dallas GEP 23:50 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY is a bit of a crapshoot right now but a LONG with a stop @ 106.25 could pay well

Perth AS 23:47 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
This could also cause the USD strength and with Australia and New Zealand having these as their main holiday destinations especially for the young whist on holiday from Uni we could be looking for problems when they all return at the end of the Summer

Thailand brings in troops to fight bird flu; Concern over 'unprecedented' spread of virus ...

Thailand, the world's fourth-largest poultry exporter, has invited senior Asian health and agricultural officials and representatives from international agencies to discuss how to stop the spread of the epidemic now affecting Thailand, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Cambodia, Vietnam and Indonesia health experts fear that the virus could mutate into a form that could be transmitted through human contact, potentially creating a deadly pandemic that could kill millions of people.

Melbourne Qindex 23:47 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : In a quiet session I use 0.001744 to represent the market rhythm of the daily cycle. It should be good before the market opened in Hong Kong.

Melbourne Qindex 23:40 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
I don't know how long it would last.

EUR/USD : My current expected trading ranges.

... // 1.2555 - 1.2573 - 1.2590 - 1.2608 // ...

B.A. BOCA 23:40 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
good night (day) all...

Feb could turn into the big $ rally month if all the upcoming events, most notably the G7 and revised employment numbers come in $ positive. fed rate decision is a non-factor, while ECB could put some panic in the market if they begin to show any dovish signs. some things to keep in mind m/t.
still hold on to my long sterling positions, though..for months..


Melbourne Qindex 23:40 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : My current expected trading ranges.

... // 1.2555 - 1.2573 - 1.2590 - 1.2608 // ...

Miami OMIL 23:32 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 22:24 GMT January 25, 2004
Looks like a cat bounce on the eur/usd but until the 1.2500 area is taken I don’t feel confident about going all out on the eur/usd short. Indicators show that there is still room for a lower move for the eur but the key number is still 1.2500 to return to the dollar correction move IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Porto PJT 23:30 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
Home > Politics
Will George Soros Panic the Market?
Posted Jan. 23, 2004
By Kenneth R. Timmerman
Published: Tuesday, February 3, 2004

The idea was floated first by former Treasury secretary Robert Rubin, now the chairman of Citigroup. Unless Congress scales back the Bush tax cuts, he argues in a new study, U.S. government budget deficits could lead to a crisis of confidence in the dollar and the stock market and potentially staggering losses for investors.

To conservative economist Bruce Bartlett, Rubin was "laying the groundwork for a political assault on President George W. Bush over his budget policies, hope[ing] to give the Democratic presidential candidate an issue to run on that could propel him into the White House."

But Wall Street sources say Rubin may have had other designs as well. A consummate insider who talked the market up when he was working for Bill Clinton, Rubin today could be trying to talk the market down. "This market is thin enough that if you made a big move all of a sudden you could move it," Bartlett tells Insight. "At some point, something could happen on its own, and then someone like George Soros could turn a minor blip into something else."

The Hungarian-born Soros is one of the world's richest men, with a fortune estimated at $7 billion earned in part from brazen assaults on world currency markets. He has gained political notoriety for providing $18 million to support a change in the U.S. campaign-finance laws and then using that change in recent months to offer more than $15 million to radical organizations dedicated to defeating Bush this November [see "Soros Resolves to Bring Bush Down," Dec. 9-22, 2003]. Asked recently by the Washington Post whether he would trade his $7 billion fortune to unseat Bush, Soros thought hard. "If someone guaranteed it," he said finally.

Investment adviser and author Don Luskin ( thinks investors should watch Soros carefully but calmly. "At least two of three conditions must be met for a speculative attack on the market to succeed," he tells Insight. "First and foremost, the speculators have to be right." When Soros sought to break the British pound by massive currency trades, he played into a market that knew the existing exchange rates were unsustainable. "So he speculated against the Bank of England, not against the whole censored world," Luskin says. "You can influence the market by the very act of betting."

Ideally, Luskin says, there should be technical market conditions that force other players "to take action triggered by what you did, independent of wanting to help you." Such was the case during the Oct. 19, 1987, stock-market crash, when computer-driven selling accelerated as the market went down, driving prices down even further. By the end of the day, prices had plunged by 20 percent. Since then, the New York Stock Exchange has installed "circuit breakers" that cut off trading to prevent panic selling.

"Soros believes that if he can force the market down, he will have an effect in the real world," Luskin says. "If it happens on Oct. 31, people might go into the voting booth with fear in their hearts."

Insight put two questions to Luskin and to private investment adviser Jim Klima of Klima and Associates in Ellicott City, Md. Should Soros decide to make a power play on the eve of the November 2004 elections, how would he do it? And what is the likelihood he would do so?

Luskin believes Soros could choose to sell stock index-future contracts massively. If Soros succeeded in driving the market down and keeping it down for several days or more, then his early trades would make a profit. "With this strategy you only lose at the bottom," Luskin says. But when the market turns, Soros could lose big, just as he did during the October 1987 crash.

Klima thinks Soros would be more inclined to stick with what he knows best, which is the currency market. "By playing the futures market, he could win whether the dollar slides further or whether it recovers," Klima explains. But Soros could have the most devastating impact on the U.S. economy by betting the dollar higher, not lower. "A dramatic rise in the price of the dollar would dramatically hurt U.S. exports," Klima says.

These advisers say concerned investors should be watching for increased market volatility, starting in the futures pits, and for futures trading at a discount.

But for all his Bush-bashing bluster, Soros will be thinking long and hard before throwing real money at this market. "George Soros has gotten his tail burned badly in the U.S. market when he's been a big seller," Luskin says. "If he's wrong, it could cost him several billion dollars."

But if he's right, and Howard Dean gets elected president in a panic, his doomsday trading could become a self-fulfilling prophecy as U.S. financial markets collapse. And that would leave Soros even richer than he is today. "In the end, it could be a pure financial play, not a political play," Luskin says.Place your bets.

Kenneth R. Timmerman is a senior writer for Insight magazine.
email the author

Perth AS 23:17 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
Aussie seems to be holding above 77 for now , some talk of the hight 7795 forming a double top as it fell quite sharply support lies at 0.7695 being 38.2% of 0.7530-0.7795 with next 50% at 0.7665 tricky week ahead.

Miami OMIL 23:17 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona Tony 23:06 GMT January 25, 2004
Looks like your time is coming if only for a short time buddy. (/:-> GT

Barcelona Tony 23:06 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
sell euro and gbp now buy $!!!! last train here

Perth AS 23:04 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
Economy Canada-The fellowship for lower rates

you have to ask at what point are the RBA going to follow
cant see a hike anytime soon over here any view on this from you guys

Brisbane L 22:29 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
Stronger US labour market tipped
US Treasury Secretary John Snow said the US labour market will strengthen and private forecasts of 1.85 million new jobs by the end of September seem reasonable.

"I fully expect to see the job situation improve a lot," he told financial news wire CBS Marketwatch.

Snow was asked whether the economy could meet earlier private forecasts by churning out 1.85 million jobs by September 30, after creating only 144,000 jobs in the last quarter of 2003.

The treasury secretary said he kept in close touch with the forecasters.

"They are confident, and those number seem reasonable to me because after all arecovery always translates into jobs, with a lag," Snow said.

Private economists were forecasting growth of 150,000 to 300,000 jobs a month, Snow said.

The US economy generated just 1,000 jobs in December, the governmentreported this month, shocking economists, who had projected average job growthof 148,000 in the month.

Greenspan told a conference in Berlin this month that a jobs recovery had been delayed by sharp improvements in business productivity, which could not be sustained for long.

"It's just a matter of time before we begin to see employment start to pick up quite significantly as it always has in the past," the powerful central bank boss said.


Brisbane L 22:26 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
London Hosts Official Extravaganza Monday

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, Treasury Secretary John Snow and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet are among the speakers at a seminar organized by the U.K. Treasury in London. Greenspan will speak by satellite from Washington and isn't expected to answers questions from the audience or the press, but Trichet might.

A host of other euro-zone officials speaking at the event - including the finance ministers of Germany, Holland, Spain and Ireland - may also have the potential to move the euro while sterling traders will watch closely for remarks from U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King

ICT ML 22:24 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
Hi Guys,

Just my personal observation about Friday in general.....while my cable failed to make a new high before selling off like I was shooting for, I did expect it to sell off.

Tricky thing is this.......she bounced hard off the 50% fib before closing, meaning the big shorters squared up going in to the weekend. So now we need to see if the 50% fib level holds or not before opening new short positions, or long for that matter. Just my personal view / plan.

Now the euro has not bounced off its 50% fib much and is back looking to test it I am tempted to short it pretty heavy with a tight stop going into Asia and London..

Any comments welcome

Melbourne Qindex 22:09 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 22:03 GMT - EUR/USD : That is something we would like our viewers to take a look in my page. Send an e-mail to Jay and he would arrange it as soon as possible.

Madrid GLR 22:05 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
Perth, of all potential corrections, we see this pair, USD/CAD as most promising. We'll keep an eye out for your figure. GLR

Pecs Andras 22:03 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
Dr, Q
What is the lower barrier of the EUR/USD weekly cycle?

Melbourne Qindex 22:01 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : A projected barrier is expected at 1.2599 - 1.2617.

Perth AS 22:01 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
Madrid GDR actually some are looking for 135

Madrid GLR 21:57 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
Perth, we see USD/CAD $133.20 then 133.80. Maybe this week. What sayeth you? GLR

Melbourne Qindex 21:51 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is slightly to be challenged.

Perth AS 21:48 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
Canadian Dollar Has Biggest Drop Since 1987 Crash as More Rate Cuts Seen
Canada Dollar Falls for Second Week as Central Bank Cuts Rate
Canada's dollar fell 1.1 percent against the U.S. dollar this week, closing Friday at its lowest since Dec. 23, after the central bank cut its target interest rate and suggested more cuts may be coming. Bonds rose.

Madrid GLR 21:43 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
Leicester UK,

Dear Sir, you may be right about data on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, previous retracements show in this pair that we have at least 2-3 weeks of $ strenght ahead of us. $/CAD recieved mid term buy signal on Friday. One week ago $/CHF received same supportive signal by breaking 124.50 on its big day. $ is the sickest man in the hospital, but you can likely make money going long $ against the world this week except Yen and Sing $.

Melb mpfx 21:00 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw// Australia Day here in oz, have a great day all who reside in the land downunder. Beer, BBQ's and India v Aust one day cricket match live on telly are the order of the day, doesnt get much better. :))

Moscow Hawk 16:07 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
Selling EUR/USD 1.2740-75 as suggested proved to be very accurate money-maker. But I think market still needs more time to form the reversal pattern.

From mid term picture updated through weekend on my site:

«…The crucial for the EUR/USD mid term will be 1.2300-50 zone. Clear break of the zone will be very negative for the euro and open 1.20-21 for a test. However while above 1.23 the range trading 1.2300(50)-1.2700(50) is preferable. Move above will ease pressure downside and indicate strong probability that 1.2850-00 will be tested again...»

Good luck

UK Leicester 15:12 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
Euro bashers beware the upward trend is far from over and the dollar still has a long way to go. Only so much verbal intervention will show any effect on the dollar. watch the dollar fall as tuesday and wednesdays US figures fail to impress the markets. Dont forget the gold influence !!!

Melbourne Qindex 11:03 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY :  Trading strategy on Monday . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 07:58 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD :  Trading strategy on Monday . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 07:57 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
Ina-'z 04:02 GMT - Thank you for your kind words.

HK [email protected] 05:05 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
The next coming days story for Euro is the interaction of price with the low of 1.2333. If that breaks we can expect an additional significant drop.

Ina-'z 04:02 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
Sir "Q"...
You is one of professional analyst in this forum. And range which you give very assistive us all. hoping our one moment and our friends here can join. continue... Sir "Q" and give us the guide to get the big profit. Thank a Lot...GBU !! GL..

Melbourne Qindex 03:57 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD :  Trading strategy on Monday . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 01:45 GMT January 25, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:59 GMT January 24, 2004
By george,you shall get work hard and provide a pretty good wishes with you.



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