Forex Forum Archive for 01/28/2004

Buenos Aires Argenfx 23:44 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
To PECS Andras: Thank you friend...I will consider your advice. Good trading !!!

Pecs Andras 23:40 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Buenos Aires Argenfx 23:27 GMT January 28, 2004
Pullbacks are quite shallow now, so it is a dangerous position.
I would cut this trade if there is a minor uptick.
Of course you can always risk those 50 some pips loss, that is not much, but what do you expect?
50/50 r/r ration is quite bad, especially now.
But this is only my view, it is your trade and your money
GL

nyc tony 23:35 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
I don't understand sometimes. Traders- shorting the $ right now is like juggling scorpions. But whatever. I'll wait for any upticks to 1.25xx to sell the euro.

Buenos Aires Argenfx 23:27 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
To DALLAS Gep: Are you there ? If yes, which�s your expectations for the GBP ? I�m long on at 1.8140 awaiting for 50 or more pips of profit, and s/l under 1.8100
Tks. & GT.

Brisbane 23:24 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Dr Curtis Analyst on CNBC asia squawkbox talking about the USD.

Brisbane L 23:09 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
NZ Fin Min Won't Rule Out Intervention

Cairo Amgad 22:55 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
I think eur/usd down move has been done now, I will exit now and sell again at 1.2406 or less, s/l 1.2448 t/p 1.2356, a break of 1.2333 may lead to 1.2297 and then 1.2170.

If break 1.2448 then we may find a moving up trend starting. Correction is possible at this level,

Your comments is appritiated, GL,GT

Melbourne Qindex 22:53 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:53 GMT January 28, 2004
Spot Gold : the supporing strength of 402.5 / 403 is likely to be tested.

USA Biscuit Boy 22:52 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Pecs I will hold my dollar longs till every weak dollar short is cleared out. Quindex has the targets. GL and GT.

london cam 22:44 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ML - Thanks for the reassurance. Trailing stop now at 1.2578 although if this baby moves up further before I hit the sack in an hour, I might adjust upwards. Its looking unlikely though
GL GT

Ldn 22:44 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Aussie 7675 been taken out as longs getting out repeated fails above 7800 also possibility interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Australian wont keep widening
weighing on AUD/USD

ICT ML 22:38 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
london cam 22:30: nothing wrong with your original idea mate. knee jerk reactions don't last long, and you can always buy a break higher. It has reached 15 nd 30 min sell levels, and hourly is approaching, so it might pull back around here.

Eilat Dolphin 22:37 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
After 230 pips on the euro, the sharks need do digest the blood.

Melbourne Qindex 22:34 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : the following is still valid :-

Melbourne Qindex 00:03 GMT January 14, 2004
AUD/USD : My 44-day cycle reference suggest that the market is going to vibrate around the quantised level at 0.7665 with a magnitude of +/- 154 pips, i.e. 0.7511* - 0.7665* - 0.7818*. The trading reference is as follow after expansion of the expected trading ranges :-

... // 0.7511* - 0.7588 - 0.7665 * - 0.7742 - 0.7818* // ...

Ldn 22:33 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
MMS US Tsy Undersecy Taylor sees dramatic improvement in the global economy since the last Dubai G7 meeting in Sep and expects Tsy Snow to stress that point at the next meeting on Feb 6-7. Taylor also says US budget gap is smaller than in previous recessions and unrelated to trade gap.

Melbourne Qindex 22:32 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:58 GMT January 27, 2004
EUR/GBP : My 3-month projection profile indicates that the market is pulling towards 0.6826. As shown in my 5-day cycle charts the lower barrier is expected at 0.6833 // 0.6865 and the upper barrier is located at 0.6958 // 0.6989.


... 0.6833 // 0.6865, 0.6896, 0.6927, 0.6958 // 0.6989 ...

Ldn 22:30 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
think Athens needs a trophy.

london cam 22:30 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ML - I'm long swissy 1.2430 and can't believe whats going on. Was considering closing @1.2600 but think I'll leave it open overnight once I've calculated a reasonable stop. Any ideas?

Brisbane L 22:29 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
NoodysG any view on the Ausse you could share today cheers

Pecs Andras 22:29 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy
What is your strategy now?
And levels?

Melbourne Qindex 22:29 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:24 GMT January 28, 2004
EUR/USD : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market is moving against the odds and it is now challenging the lower barrier at 1.2443 // 1.2547. The next target is 1.2338. The projected profile of my weekly cycle frequency chart suggests that the market can easily move between 1.2129 - 1.2443.

EUR/USD : Weekly Cycle Charts

EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The critical level of my weekly cycle is positioning at 1.2756. The lower barrier is expected at 1.2443 // 1.2547 and the mid-point reference is 1.2495. If the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 1.2443, EUR/USD has a potential to tackle the extreme range at 1.1816 - 1.2338. The upper barrier is located at 1.2860 // 1.2964. The market rhythm is represented by 104 pips (k=0.01044) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.2547 - 1.2860.  (Suggestion : The odds are in favour of maintaining a short position if the market is trading below the critical level at 1.2756.).

Ldn 22:28 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Some shift in U.S. rate expectations among market players after FOMC statement with Fed fund futures now pricing in 80% chance of 25bp hike in June, vs previous expectations for hike in September; statement was "a wake up call for the market. reuters

ICT ML 22:26 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
lots of euro ans swiss changing hands at 1.2400 and 1.2600.....quite a show going on

Melbourne Qindex 22:26 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   

Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.2129 ... 1.2338, 1.2443 // 1.2547, 1.2652, 1.2756, 1.2860 // 1.2964 ... 

GVI john 22:26 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION �Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2485�. $/yen 106.05
DJIA 10,468, -142 pts�NASDAQ 2,077, -39 pts
10-yr 4.19%, +11 bp�s
MARKET OPINIONS:
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USA Biscuit Boy 22:24 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Just a cat nap. A lot more money still on the table for the patient players.

Pecs Andras 22:23 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
As I was writing, the levels fell, Great!

Pecs Andras 22:22 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Big battlre raging at these levels on the majors.
I think if 2450 fall, pond and swissy will follow
I am short cable from 8228
Hope it will medium term

london cam 22:22 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Algarve Box 21:38 GMT January 28, 2004
Hello,
Do you 'see' an inverted Head&Shoulders in this year EURUSD graph of 3hours?
How much is the target of such figure?

Thsi would suggest a price of 1.2225. Whether it will print soon remains to be seen

Ldn 22:20 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
This guy should be listened to a little more....his call was correct well amost.
Ldn 06:18 GMT January 28, 2004
John Riding Bear Stearns Chief Market Analyst on Kudlow and Cramer CNBC NY. says see the Fed changing stance and leaning towards a hike sooner than most think..

Melbourne Qindex 22:16 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 22:15 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : My 3-month projection profile suggests that the market is ready to move one step forward after a pullback from around 1.2462. The market rhythm of my 3-month projection profile is represented by 313 pips. the next target is 1.2149.


Melbourne Qindex 22:11 GMT January 26, 2004
EUR/USD : The market has anchored itself around 1.2460 after the move from 1.2775. It is going to tackle the barrier at 1.2305 - 1.2335. The short term target is 1.2149.

Ldn 22:11 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Group of Seven finance officials meeting next month may attempt to change the market's overwhelmingly bearish view of the dollar by altering its assessment of foreign exchange, a former top Japanese Finance Ministry official said Wednesday.

"I don't think the U.S. really and truly wants the dollar to weaken further," and more declines would be unsustainable, said Kosuke Nakahira, a former Japanese Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs,

Interview with DJN

Melbourne Qindex 22:10 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:28 GMT January 27, 2004
EUR/USD : A projected resistant level has been established at 1.2510 - 1.2516. The following references are still vALID :-


Melbourne Qindex 06:53 GMT January 13, 2004
EUR/USD The current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle is 1.2389 - 1.2897 and the mid-point reference is 1.2643. Projected supporting and resistant point is expected at 1.1882 and 1.3151 respectively.
Melbourne Qindex 04:40 GMT January 16, 2004
EUR/USD : the trading reference of my 44-day cycle is as follow :-

... 1.1882* // 1.2009, 1.2136*, 1.2263, 1.2389*, 1.2516, 1.2643*, 1.2770 // 1.2897* ...

Melbourne Qindex 00:56 GMT January 25, 2004
EUR/USD : 22-Day Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.2332* // 1.2421, 1.2510*, 1.2599, 1.2688*, 1.2777 // 1.2866 ...

Melbourne Qindex 22:09 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:07 GMT January 27, 2004
EUR/USD : Speculative selling will increase if the market can penetrate through 1.2443 - 1.2462.

Brisbane L 22:05 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
New Zealand's December goods trade deficit blew out to more than NZ$500 million, over NZ$200 million higher than expected,
The higher-than-expected December figure widened the 12-month deficit to NZ$3.4 billion, just over NZ$200 million higher than the deficit expected
The December goods trade deficit was NZ$506 million, well above economists' median expectation of a NZ$297 million deficit, Statistics New Zealand said Thursday.
At 22% of exports, December's goods trade deficit was four times the average December deficit recorded for the past 10 years, Statistics NZ said.

NZP.

Melbourne Qindex 22:02 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:02 GMT January 28, 2004
EUR/USD : After Expansion :-

... // 1.2149* - 1.2225 - 1.2301* - 1.2381 - 1.2461* - 1.2539 - 1.2617 // ...


Melbourne Qindex 19:46 GMT January 28, 2004
EUR/USD : the current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle is 1.2149 - 1.2301 - 1.2461 - 1.2617.

Melbourne Qindex 22:00 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 19:46 GMT January 28, 2004
EUR/USD : the current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle is 1.2149 - 1.2301 - 1.2461 - 1.2617.

Ldn 21:59 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
If Athens is around would like his take on the low we may see the Euro and if the triangle he talked about could take the downward direction instead of the upward most were looking for

Ldn 21:55 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
According to IFR it took 15 minutes to take the Euro crashing
from 1.2650 to 1.2465 against the Dollar
With the ending of the accommodative policy by the Fed and the beginning of the tightening cycle will be the signal that the USD is nearing the bottom. subtle change in the Fed's
language could be the trigger for a major USD fightback - we will have to see.

RIGA RIA 21:51 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Expect decline AUDNZD to 1.1320 after RBNZ

Brisbane L 21:47 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Some in the market are also upset cos they didnt get the WSJ guy Berry giving them the nod , think the Fed had a more of an agenda than most realize JIMHO

NYC 21:39 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Question on the fund move in the aud/usd - what just happened?

Algarve Box 21:38 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Hello,
Do you 'see' an inverted Head&Shoulders in this year EURUSD graph of 3hours?
How much is the target of such figure?

sf cc 21:36 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Livingston NH - Your schoolmate is adept at super mumbo jumbo double-speak as ever. If stocks don't bounce tomorrow, will we see him coming out with yet another 'clarification'? He's done that before... to makes sure that folks understand there's really going to be no rate hike... but just in case.....

LAX-LGB SNP 21:36 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
as NYC draws to a close

AUDUSD will need to dig deeper before London's open or risk a pullback ... same goes for GBPJPY, EURCHF, EURGBP

gotta go and eat lunch now

LAX-LGB SNP 21:31 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
02:14 GMT January 28, 2004
AUDUSD's making a triple-top below 0.7800 - any ideas what comes next ?
... a cent :-)

09:00 GMT January 28, 2004
USDCAD bouncing off rising TL @ 1.3046 from Jan13th through Jan22nd
if price can break past 1.32-1.3215 zone then its byebye Kansas till 1.34xx
... another cent

09:59 GMT January 28, 2004
sell signals apparent on EURJPY - if levels can confirm for another hour then i'll join in the dive
... dime short of a cent

USA Biscuit Boy 21:30 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Well im off to bedski. Guess the japs have the pleasure of gunning for the next big stops.

LAX-LGB SNP 21:30 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
02:19 GMT January 28, 2004
GBPCHF has spent the last 3 weeks fighting to stay above 2.2790 - seems easy enough to pull out at least 6 cents between 2.28 and 2.26
... now WTF was i thinking ??? reversing over 2.28 would have been apt

02:22 GMT January 28 / 2004 09:43 GMT January 28, 2004
after yesterday's shooting star on GBPJPY - expect price to break out big time either side of 192.90-193.05
on GBPJPY there's a falling TL @ 194.35 which needs to go before GBPUSD can mount an assault for 196
... up and down twice so far - lets see if third time proves lucky

ICT ML 21:26 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
well looks like I get a better than expected price to pick up that cable today........but will give it awhile to settle down before action..........

Glad I was flat today though.

beirut jb 21:26 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
$/cad UPDATE

well from last post no big change,

$/cad should test 133 before any drop

major resistance 13408 and 13420 the latest doble top

so short should stomack untill 134 and stop should be for position trader above 13420,

swing trader should put stop above 133

GL GT

Brisbane L 21:25 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Actually the Alan Mitchell opinion piece in today's AFR, couldnt have been timed better with the Fed now looking to start hiking after a long pause , its taken the pressure off the CBs around the world to intervene.

Alicante RTN 21:23 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Long eurchf at 1.5668

Down 50 pips from todays high even though the FOMC statement does not in any way alter the relative worth of the euro and the swiss franc.

This pullbacks while market is making large moves is normal and caused by euro running into more res or support than usdchf.

The cross normally recovers from these gyrations within a day or two.

USA Biscuit Boy 21:18 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
If euro cannot break 1.2450 im covering and staying sidelined. If it breaks then will see how 1.2300 goes.

Stockholm za 21:15 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Eur/usd With ema 55. If ema 89, then panicky for up to create the devils fork.
However all the down trend formation factors and T-line are still in tact, inside the major up trend��
Time decay = x...... fwiw

Ldn 21:02 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD Vulnerable After FOMC Anz Bank.

Gothenburg XON 21:01 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Cairo, A,

I can agree with Dallas GEP, there is a obvious channel between 1,3270-1,3090.
Also price at the moment on top of upper bollinger band,
stochastics and MACD also inicate good short position at the moment. This is only my view...

USA Biscuit Boy 20:45 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Nh republicans and democrats? Didn't know there was a difference nowdays lol. Its Cramer I prefer.

Dublin CK 20:41 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Dover,

My friend is a broker in London, who once dealt with iraqui debt and dinar.Not sure if he still does now, but i can always contact him.

He worked in one of the smaller brokerages.Ill email him and ask him about it, send me on your email if you are interested.

Rgds,

CK

Cairo A 20:36 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
thank you Dallas GEP,

Dover RMD 20:35 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone make a market in Iraqui Dinars for USD?
Does any exchange convert I Dianrs for USD paper for paper?

B.A. BOCA 20:34 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
would be looking to sell usd going into next week.....and g7. if the dollar strengthens signifacntly before meeting, would make currency discussions a mute point..

Livingston nh 20:33 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy - Cramer is the bald Democrat lawyer - Kudlow is the Republican cheerleader with the Rose colored glasses (Dr. Pangloss)

Ldn 20:33 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
A rate hike will be done before the end of July well before upsetting the election, also many pensioners must be upset due to the low rate of return , so it works both ways for Bush. rates are so low 25bps is nothing

nyc Joel 20:33 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Kramer is the whacko, Kudlow is very very intelligent

Dallas GEP 20:32 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
A, 1.3260 to 1.3180 is the general range for now BUT usd/cad had the potential to short a couple hundred points over the next week or so. I would ply at the extreme ranges with the BIAS notwithstanding standing today of course DOWN.

Livingston nh 20:31 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Ldn - there is real confusion at the Fed right now - most people wouldn't see a rate CUT based on this statement today but the statement says they don't know which way to go -- all the Fed Heads were out talking "considerable period" yak yak since Christmas (The St. Louis Fed even has a February issue that leads with the meaning of "considerable period") - now that goes away -- why?? -- this is not a tightening statement

london cam 20:29 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 20:11 GMT January 28, 2004
Grateful if you could explain the triangle hypothesis. thks GL GT

Dover RMD 20:28 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Where / how can Iraqui Dinars be purchased with USD?

USA Biscuit Boy 20:25 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Nh is Kudlow the bald guy with the crazy looking eyes or is that Kramer? I like him :)

Ldn 20:25 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Florida Leads World In 2003 Shark Attacks

They should take a look at the FX world

Cairo A 20:25 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, Gothenburg XON:

What are your views about USD/CAD include Sell/Buy, Entry level, S/L and T/P.

Thank you for your time and GT.

Ldn 20:24 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh
lets put it this way its easier than intervention and more subtle

Ldn 20:23 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Gold Fell $4 on the Fed news.

Brisbane L 20:22 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Australian press today (AFR) that the RBA
may be on hold for months, AUD/USD has fallen sharply
from IFR this morning.

Livingston nh 20:20 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Larry Kudlow hasn't a clue - the USD is not a big factor in the Fed thinking -- ECB may be talking to Fed but no help absent a crisis

Dallas GEP 20:18 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ArgenFX, Before G7 meeting next week, I can't see the MOF letting 105.00 get penetrated, There was TREMENDOUS pressure on 105.50 and it held due to BOJ bids and I would think that tonight that level or perhaps 105.30 area would be defended pretty heavily. Out for now guys, USD.CAD is on auto-pilot SHORT

Ldn 20:17 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Former Wall Street economist Larry Kudlow sees
the dollar's slide as the catalyst for the shift in verbiage by the Fed today.
CNBC.

Gothenburg XON 20:14 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Had to short usd/cad @ 1,3260...

GA TJ 20:11 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Don't forget about the Traingles in Euro and Swissy. So far this move has touched both sides. When will it exit the Triangle.....

Buenos Aires Argenfx 20:11 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
To DALLAS Gep: I�m trying to recover me from my excesive cautious closed on my GBP short positions. Also, my longs on JPY are running back to 105.20/50 again. Do you think tonight BOJ will boost the dollar again ? Tks. & GT.

USA Biscuit Boy 20:11 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
BOK I also think it must be margincall-arama on all the retail platforms at the moment. According to my platform most were short dollars.

SA Bok 20:09 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Boys nobody saw this .. call was good on Tech basis ... FED made it happen sooner ...

SA Bok 20:08 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
This is perfect for BOJ to Smack USDJPY but then thier Treasury Bonds positions must have taken a whack on this ...hence quiet ... very interesting from now .. GL all

Gaza Ibiza 20:07 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Hats off to Athens....Only person I know that was calling for this move!!! of coarse I can say this in "Hind sight";)!!!

SA Bok 20:02 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Got to love brokers .. news out , they freeze prices , say call dealing desk , call put on hold .. still cannot access a price ..
Customer Rep eventaully answers say do you know whats going on like ... well yes thats why I would like a EURUSD quote ... well I cannot give you that ...

I understand its busy due Fed but censored at least take an order let me input it if you dont want to quote ...

Bottom line brokers ALWAYS correct and its the Traders fault for trying to Trade ..

Sorry who's the client ... Got to love it ... LOL

Enjoy

Toronto Silverfox 20:02 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Nzd 25 bps hike

Spotforex NY 20:00 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
The FOMC minutes from the previous meeting is to be released tomorrow...so insight to what the Fed is thinking as 'strong' data began to filter out into the US economy....

Athens 19:59 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
sings=swings

Athens 19:58 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
One last point now. More often than not, following a FOMC the market changes direction 2-3 times before settling in the final direction. That hasn't happened today thus far but the lack of sings looks tricky to me. Later perhaps or not at all>? I don't know.

SPB Mike 19:55 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Alicante RTN

10x! agree with you.
flat now but looking 2 short/shoot again

Dallas GEP 19:55 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Short CAD 1.3236 tight stop

Athens 19:54 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
For those trading the CAD, 1.3230-60 was my first O/B area today and it has already given a retracement so I am not sure if it can give a new one. However, it is not recommended to buy USD/CAD near or inside this area today.

Melbourne Qindex 19:52 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Athens 19:51 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Thanks friends. Dublin CK 19:37. Very short term it is a matter if it can break this evening 1.2450-40. If above 1.2500 again we might see more time spent on consolidation. However my interest still is in finding upticks to sell again. Re. $/JPY, as I said here earlier today, as long as 105.20 stayed intact, my bias would be mildly up. 106.40 and 106.75 are kind of hurdles.

Colo Chief1Oar 19:50 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
My m*e*t*a platform just suffered a convenient overload..... in the midst of all this activity.....s t r a n g e things happen at the strangest times....;)

Tallinn viies 19:48 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
at the moment before day is not over yet I can feel that euro may test 1,23 soon

Ldn 19:47 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Bird flu could be bad for other flyersQantas is playing down the potential effects of a new flu virus, saying there has been no World Health Organisation advice not to travel to Asia.

(But it has ceased serving chicken on its flights.)

LINK

Melbourne Qindex 19:47 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dallas GEP 19:45 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Closed USD/JPY short @ 105.95 from 106.10. Earlier I closed all usd/jpy longs @ 105.90

Tallinn viies 19:45 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
next target within next 2 hours is 1,2440/45 fwiw

USA Biscuit Boy 19:44 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Expect a lot more dollar buying for the short term.

sarasota jf 19:44 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
pacman ready to feed on euryen stops sub 132

Alicante RTN 19:43 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
SPB Mike:

One of my trading rules are Easy come- easy gone. I.e. take quick profits quickly as they have a tendency to evaporate after s/l action is finished.

So close and enjoy the trade.

bdg dewan 19:43 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ziffalon
1939 GMT [Dow Jones] Element of surprise after FOMC drops "considerable
period" wording is giving USD a boost in market short USD. EUR/USD now at 1.2485
vs 1.2638 pre-FOMC. USD/JPY at 105.90 from 105.53, while GBP/USD down to 1.8230
from 1.8355. (RF)

Alicante RTN 19:41 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Short usdjpy from 106.12 - cad and yen indicate the the s/t bottom is abt here.

Dallas GEP 19:40 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Sold usd/jpy @ 106.10

SPB Mike 19:39 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Need some kind advice :)
Shorted cable @8288, now have stop there. Should i leave it for long term (say to the next week) or close it today (is it only short term emotional movement or real change)? TIA

GA TJ 19:37 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Whats that I here coming across the Pacific. A Big Thank You from the FinMin. The absence of 2 words in 1 press release is doing what the BOJ did spending billions.

GEP if you have not closed that USDJPY I would leave it open and follow with a tight Stop. I am still Flat.

Dublin CK 19:37 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Good work Athens,

Any guess's for Eur/Dollar and USD/JPY by the end of the week?

beijing road 19:37 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
crazy mkt!

B.A. BOCA 19:36 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
sorry, would NOT be so quick

Livingston nh 19:36 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
This Fed statement is more important than it seems - the considerable period language did not say interest rates would stay low merely that policy would remain accomodative (which could be permit a rate hike but still remain) - this change is more in line with the tighter money policy it has followed and indicates some confusion

Alicante RTN 19:36 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Overreaction is a word that comes to mind. Appreciate the pips, but with patience, the return trip will be equally interesting.

Gothenburg XON 19:36 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
usd/cad short again ?

B.A. BOCA 19:35 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
would be so quick to come to the conclusion that the FED wants to raise rates....simply getting themselves out of that corner they got into by using the 'considerable time'. they no doubt still have the same philosphy..

Dallas GEP 19:32 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Closed usd/jpy LONGS @ 105.90

USA Biscuit Boy 19:32 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
In less than a year yield will favor dollar longs against euro. Expect eur/usd longs to be liquidated on any upticks now.

Leva ak 19:31 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Congrats Athens!!!

Gaza Ibiza 19:30 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Athens a pleasure to walk tonight !

GA TJ 19:29 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
And now Stops are getting killed. Deer in the headlights for those holding Long Positions. Thats > 150 PIPS on Euro for a "No Rate Change" but "Maybe one in the Future". This has just toasted all my indicators. It may take a few hours to wash out.

Athens 19:28 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Re my 13:01 ("I stick to the short EUR/$ side"), thank you market.

Helsinki iw 19:26 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Dollar to stay bid ahead of G7 on this.

GA TJ 19:25 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
For anyone interested here is the statement....

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent. The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that output is expanding briskly. Although new
The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. The probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation. With inflation quite low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that it can be patient in removing its policy accommodation.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman;
Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W.
Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Cathy E.
Minehan; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; and William Poole.

Tallinn viies 19:25 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
quite a shock

Gen dk 19:25 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Biscuit Boy 19:23 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Well I think the general consensus is a rate hike in the next 9 months. Dollars will be bought up months in advance.

GA TJ 19:21 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
FOMC has removed the "considerable period" from the outlook. I suppose that means sometime in the next 2 yeaers they might rise rates. I am going to let this crap settle down then make decisions

USA Biscuit Boy 19:21 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Guess they changed wording re: interest rates Portland.

Portland, OR Forex5x 19:20 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
What the heck just happened in the EUR/USD?

Dropped like a rock in seconds.

Livingston nh 19:19 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
so now the Fed is Patient and looking at capacity utilization as well as inflation

GA TJ 19:18 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Hmmmm... I thought that "No Change" was already priced in. will be interesting to see what the wording is.

Belgrade Knez 19:15 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Rates:
unchanged

B.A. BOCA 19:14 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
hello..my suggestion for those wanting to play this statement is to not play it at all...shark fenzy..

wait for the market to decide on decision...GL

Dallas GEP 19:09 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Out now on USD.CAD short.

Buenos Aires Argenfx 19:08 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Closed out my GBP position opened 17:30 GMT at 1.8350 (25 pips profit) I think it will be no significant news from FOMC.
By the way, I�m still long on JPY at 105.59
Good trades to all !!!

Dallas GEP 19:05 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Trail Stop on USD/CAD short now @ 1.3200

Dallas GEP 19:02 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
15 Minutes FOMC

Dallas GEP 18:35 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
NIC, thanks regarding the caddy possie, Actually I had to hold that pig thru a 36 pip turn when it went long on me quite against the technicals I might add.

NYC NYC 18:32 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
O% chance of a rate hike. Language in the statement is the focus.

USA Biscuit Boy 18:31 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Well Nic I still think it is a long shot for a rate hike but who knows. Change in wording may be just as effective.

Warwick snp 18:28 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Ldn............ 19:15 GMT ...

Genoa nic 18:28 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit, FWIW i covered some of my long bunds just by close half an hour ago. Maybe i will regret but i didn't want to risk a GAP on FOMC wording tomorrow!

Tor Pumpkin 18:28 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
19:15 is FOMC annoucnement

Ldn 18:25 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 17:43 GMT January 28, 2004
what time GMT will the decision come out please tks.

Dallas GEP 18:24 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
I think the timing as usual is key. If a political decsion is made that a rate DECREASE might help out the political efforts of the incumbant President just PRIOR to the election than an INCREASE now in rates could set that DECREASE in rates scenario up. Basically we would be right back where we started but all people generally remember is what have you done for me lately????

USA Biscuit Boy 18:22 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Nic I think now would be the perfect time to hike. The Dow could easily stand to come off a couple hundred points and still look very healthy. There is plenty of time until the election. And don't forget those big tax refunds are coming up and should keep most of us happy and spending. Plus as Dallas noted the dollar could also stand to strengthen a tad lol.

Genoa nic 18:16 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Bisquit, good point. First step a clear change in bias then a hike. IMO the former should be enough for a dollar relief.

GEP, anyway good top picking on CAD!

saloniko 2004 nk 18:15 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening..


Gecko are u around?..


nk*!*

Ldn 18:10 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
The head of Germany"s BDI he asks ECB to cut interest rates because the strong Euro is hurting industry. Note Rogowski has previously stated 1.1000 as his preferred Eur/Usd exchange rate
Rts

USA Biscuit Boy 18:07 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Nic I agree that a change in bias before the actual hike is the logical next step. However I think if the Fed has any plans whatsoever to hike before the election they better do it now rather than have it become a political issue closse to the elections.

Dallas GEP 18:06 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
NIC, I think THEY think they could get by with it without it being that detrimental. PLUS politically it would address some issues with regards to stabilzing the exchange rates at somewhat lower levels albeit perhaps only temporarily.

I could be dead wrong about this of course. It does happen at times!! LOL

Genoa nic 18:05 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
The point IMO is a clear change in bias, not in rates, FWIW

Pecs Andras 18:01 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
OK GEP, so it is a 2 way game for you.
If there is a hike, you break even on cad and make on fortune on yen. If no hike, you win the cad position and you may be saved by BOJ with your yen posi
smart:-) gl

Brisbane L 17:59 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Tor Pumpkin (MMS)

Dallas GEP 17:56 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
YES it is Andras, that is why I have Stop at BE on USD/CAD short

Tor Pumpkin 17:54 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane, you should quote your source when posting.

Pecs Andras 17:54 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
GEP
A rate increase would be dollar pozitive, would it not?
If that is what you expect, why are you still short USD/CAD?

Genoa nic 17:53 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
GEP,
why that feeling? A total unexpected rate hike without a change in bias before would hammer both bond and stock market�

Dallas GEP 17:49 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Longed USD/JPY @ 105.56. Still have USD/CAD short from 1.3210 with stop at BE

I think the probability of a rate INCREASE is greater than any of the other options at this time.

Brisbane L 17:47 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
CAD"S SLUMP has been attributed to an US inv house recommendation to its clients to reduce their exposure to Cad bonds. Usd/Cad started the NA session bid and has not turned back as it has subsequently roared to above the 1.3250 area. Obviously, the Loonie has registered strong losses on all the crosses with Cad/Jpy providing the greatest loss

Genoa nic 17:45 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Good evening everyone

A quick minder on FOMC wording in the previous statements

Besides the great attention paid to the sentence � Policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period�, which is equal in the previous statements, these are the slight changes between the two concerning labor market and inflation/deflation:


OCT 28 : �The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that spending is firming, and the labor market appears to be stabilizing. Business pricing power and increases in core consumer prices remain muted�

DEC 9 : �The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that output is expanding briskly, and the labor market appears to be improving modestly. Increases in core consumer prices are muted and expected to remain low.�

OCT 28 : �The probability, though minor, of an unwelcome fall in inflation exceeds that of a rise in inflation from its already low level. The Committee judges that, on balance, the risk of inflation becoming undesirably low remains the predominant concern for the foreseeable future.�

DEC 9: �The probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation�


BOCA, people is buying no change at all?

Buenos Aires Argenfx 17:44 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
To VA Raven: Excuse me for the delayed answer...my stop loss is 1.8405 (30 pips) as usual for me. Tks. & GT.

Ldn 17:43 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
what time GMT will the decision come out please tks.

Ldn 17:39 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
RBA watcher Alan Mitchell has an opinion piece in today's AFR, saying that rate may be on hold for the next few months with low inflation and some slowing in the housing and employment sectors. US bank called
for the RBA to stand pat for all of 2004 about 2 weeks ago

london holst 17:38 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
sell cad here for test of channel bottom circa 1.3055 gl +gts

Va Raven 17:34 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
WHich rumor is the market buying now, BOCA?

B.A. BOCA 17:32 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
watch out for the sell the fact players out there...GL

Va Raven 17:31 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Where is your stop, Argenfx, roughly?

mex sjs 17:31 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
buenos aires argenfx, mejor compra...don't stand in front of that train....wild, by the way...i am long gbp from 1.8309 & 1.8333, looking for above 1.8450...gl & gt

Buenos Aires Argenfx 17:30 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Sold Cable at @1.8375

USA Biscuit Boy 17:27 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Well that's asuming they haven't spent all the funds allocated to them for intervention. otherwise its hold on for dear life and enter late late Friday when the market is ultra thin again.

USA Biscuit Boy 17:25 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
If I was BOJ I would pull bids here and fire at 20 for a nice run to 108 :)

Buenos Aires Argenfx 17:24 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
To DALLAS Gep: Which�s your view on GBP ? Are you still looking for south ? I�m thinking to re-enter (selling) at 1.8375 Thanks & GT.

slv sam 17:22 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Gothenburg XON /
if i were you..i would short it again here! but of course..it is your money!GT

USA Biscuit Boy 17:19 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Sold aussie at 97

Gothenburg XON 17:19 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
slv, sam

Think I should have listened to you after all...

I got to greedy and sold @ 1,3220, earning me 25pips.
Had i kept it I would have been 50pips in the green now...

I wish you good trades in the future!

Hong Kong nt 17:12 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- seems dlr may fall 0.5-1.0% further...

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:12 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
anyone here know how to apply the square of nine to currencies?


TIA.

slv sam 17:11 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
only small push needed..and we will get 1.3040 on CAD tonight!GT

Houston WAS 17:07 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
My XXXforex is'nt working, is yours??

USA Biscuit Boy 17:06 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
I don't think the Fed has anyroom whatsoever to cut rates. They need to start raising rates so they have room for a rate cut in 2 years or so IMO.

Livingston nh 17:04 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
tony - to Infinity or 1.43 on Cad - whichever comes first// note that the big ticket items in canadian sales report were weak - these are interest sensitive - rates look to come down // Dodge has said Canada growth has lagged but will pick up w/US economy - well maybe Friday's GDP figs for US will not be so good (some inventory growth but sales and orders were not gangbusters in Nov and dec)

nyc tony 17:02 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Gentlemen there is possibly 100-150 pips to be had shorting $/Cad but that's it. 1.34xx will be seen within 2-3 weeks. Holding my position. Good luck

nyc jk 17:02 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
PAR - durable good series is very volatile and subject to substantial revisions. The bottom line is that 2003 showed a marked improvement in this series so the overall "trend" is up. No way Fed will think about cutting rates because of this one month's number.

Helsinki iw 17:01 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
If Easy Al would get even easier, then that big bundle of
dough in money market funds would start earning negative
interest(after fees), so it would make sense for people to
hold cash instead of deposits. Perhaps not what they wish to
happen?

slv sam 17:01 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
$/CAD should follow soon...once again!GT

Toronto Silverfox 16:59 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Par , durable goods number is such a waste of
time. It could be up one month and down the next.
Very erratic Looking at Eur, looks to me like inverse
head and shoulders on the hourly. If 1.2640-50 breaks
could head towards 1.2700 and then some.
It appears the bottom of the shoulder at 1.2540-50
has held nicely... for now. Long with stop at around 1.2530-40.
Good Luck , cause in these markets we can all use some.

Va Raven 16:58 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Be patient, sam....

nyc tony 16:56 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Hello forum// I am just curious why the sudden sentiment the $/CAD will make new lows?? What are you basing this on? I am still substantially long and quite happy with the results. I have no plans to get out currently. Just trying to see both sides of the fence here.

slv sam 16:53 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
$/CAD should follow soon...GT

Dallas GEP 16:52 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
MOF may be bidding time until rate decision. If Rate is increased that will quite naturally be GOOD for USD and thus LONG USD/JPY but GBP longing along with Eur longing and usd/chf shorting now is putting additional pressure on USD/JPY

PAR 16:52 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
With very bad durable goods Greenspan could start thinking about lowering US interest rates.

slv sam 16:46 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Gothenburg XON/
sure not mars!
500pips down on $/CAD over few days is very possible.
i am talking in case correction is over and resumption of US$ down trend as from today..this will take us to 1.29 for e/$ and i believe new low for $/CAD..all could happen even before G7!GT

usa monster 16:41 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
when is rate decision?

Gothenburg XON 16:36 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
slv, sam...

500pips, well that would be nice, but on what planet are we talking about? :-)

PAR 16:31 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Looks like FED statement could sent the dollar crashing to new lows.

Gothenburg XON 16:31 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
C'om on USD/CAD break downwards!
Seems to be a bit of support @ 1,3230...
anyone else in short position of USD/CAD ?

slv sam 16:25 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
looks like e/$ will move higher without revisiting 1.23 level..this might take $/CAD 500pips lower AIMHO.GT

Nassau QF (newb) 16:20 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ML, sorry, I had to step away from my PC.

Just wanted to thank you for your help.

Have to go again.
Will leave USD/CAD short open.

Dubai Reshma 16:20 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Don't know who is protecting 105.5 yen. If the protection is removed one can expect 200 pips fall in dollar/yen and 400 pips fall in Pound/yen

Dallas GEP 16:18 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
PAR, I can take an aluminum baseball bat and hit it further than any golf club.. GO FIGURE!!!!!

GA TJ 16:18 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Been Flat for the last 3 hours. IMO not much is going to happen since this tight range developed waiting for the Fed announcement at 2:15 NY time. Going sit on the side until then. Possibly think of a way to bracket some entries after Fed.

Stockholm za 16:10 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
fwiw ... CHF/JPY .. is ( - ) under ~8475
with ~8517/24 for clip.....
Weekly Piv..~8438
Happy trades.....

Dallas GEP 16:09 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
If BOJ Pulls those bids here suddenly, we could have a 30-40 PIP dip, CAREFUL!!!!

Hong Kong nt 16:08 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 16:06 GMT -- not guided by satellite but can fly and powered by solar energy...

USA Biscuit Boy 16:07 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys. Short eurusd at 1.2653 and 1.2596 and short cable 1.8270 and 1.8320 at the moment.

Va Raven 16:06 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Are these balls satellite guided?

PAR 16:02 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
My US golf clubs are getting more expensive,because of new technology, but the ball flies further.

Hong Kong nt 15:58 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
PAR 15:55 GMT -- commercial goods are getting cheaper in US these days...

Alicante RTN 15:58 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Reversed eurchf longs at 1.5710 fwiw.

PAR 15:55 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
How can FED keep talking about deflation with most commodity prices at multi-year highs and services prices rising very quickly. Greenspan does not have to pay for his gasoline and core inflation is a theoretical concept not affecting real consumer spending.

Dallas GEP 15:52 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
They ran out of people longing @ 105.59. They will let it dip to pick up more longers IMO

phils VL 15:49 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
correction
eur/usd short at 1.2592

Hong Kong nt 15:48 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- fail to buy USD/CAD at 1.3030!!!

phils VL 15:47 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy - long 105.59(ask), s/l 105.49
eur/usd - short 1.2582, s/l av 1.2620

Miami OMIL 15:46 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
GEP don�t feel bad I lost about 45 pips with the news this morning we will get it back I am sure. (/;-> GL GT

Liverpool CE 15:43 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Hialeah Fxdomi

Trading stocks, futures, options, FX (least of all, but like the most) about 25 years. Full time now and on and off over the years.

slv sam 15:42 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
it is good level to short $/CAD imo.GT

Hong Kong nt 15:41 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 15:32 GMT -- guess BOJ may protect 100 line in the loose sense of "not allowing double digit to be traded for significant period of time", we may see breach of 100 in the tail portion on a weekly candle chart...

Dallas GEP 15:39 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Lost 30 pips on USD/CHF SHORT , I am not sure WTF I was thinking!!!! LOL

Hialeah Fxdomi 15:38 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Liverpool CE

How long you've been trading? full time? or else

Caribbean! Rafe... 15:37 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD UPPER BANDS 1.2653 1.2668 1.2687 1.2702 1.2717 1.2735 1.2765
LOWER BANDS 1.2624 1.2609 1.2590 1.2575 1.2560 1.2542 1.2512

beijing road 15:37 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
18270-80 level seems very tough. maybe can try small long here. ML: how is your view plz?

hk ab 0.88 15:35 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
some positions use nzd to hedge now?

hk ab 0.88 15:34 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
aud/cad can go to 1.09 fairly fast.

beijing road 15:33 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
hi, all, we have not seen "fairfax" more than half year, how is he? Really miss him, if anyone knows him, plz let me know.

hk ab 0.88 15:32 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
nt, but bc said, it's not easy for those BOJ folks to take away 100.


And I would beware of those big guns return to shoot back to the upside after March.

Hialeah Fxdomi 15:30 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Liverpool CE 15:20 GMT January 28, 2004

Thank you, very much for taking the time and advise me, I realize that the entry/exit some times might be a problem because of all the different platform. I did the trial period and next should be to paper trade it for some time, or just trade mini for several weeks to make sure it works. My biggest concern was if the dream of trading for living could be realized using this specific strategy.

beirut jb 15:30 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
$/cad update

133 next resistance and 134 area major one

today 133 could be tested but need euro and gbp to drop

$/cad is up 200 pip from lod so far

FWIW

GL GT

Hong Kong nt 15:30 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- in a longer time frame, going with the trend (fund flow and weekly head and shoulder top) and sell usd/jpy after some bounce may be more profitable, no surprise to see 96-97...

phils VL 15:29 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
euro - that's more like it....

Dallas GEP 15:29 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
105.55 being pressed hard, VERY hard

ICT ML 15:29 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
QF......$CAD channel top 1.3265-75 area coming fast.....if you are going to short it...that is the place to do it from.......

hk ab 0.88 15:28 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
too bad if eur can't hold 1.2560 before FOMC....

London MarkM 15:28 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
London MJM: Sorry have the same initials and am new to this board...

Helsinki iw 15:27 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ USD/CAD is looking good for 1,3430/40 now that it
broke 1,3200, but very o/b short term. EUR/USD could well
follow, looking a bit offered on hourlies. Think market a touch
vary of Sir Alans comment on monetary policy.

EUR/NOK has continued upwards, and as the CB signals con-
tinued easing bias, short NOK/SEK for parity during 1Q is still
on. IMHO

Nottingham 15:26 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Looking to sell usd cad just ahead of 1.33 (1/2 pos) and again if goes above fig to avaerage 1.3305 or higher...no stop...gl gt

Nassau QF (newb) 15:25 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD soaring up.
Wonder how high it'll go.

London MJM 15:25 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
jay// There has been three postings today (13:38 / 13:43 & 14:20) under " London / MJM" which are not mine. Kindly investigate who is actually using my name. Thks in advance.

Liverpool CE 15:20 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Hialeah Fxdomi

I would suggest that you get the free trial if you haven't already and study the performance results very hard. You can email Gen DK and he will give you answers to any questions. You cannot get a system provider to give you a much better or fairer look at his work than that.
I find with most systems that you buy or find somehow that they will never meet your expectations unless you do some real homework. Every platform is different and you will not get the entry and exits that someone else gets.

Dallas GEP 15:15 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Have buy order on USD/JPY @ 105.30 with stops below 105.00

hk ab 0.88 15:14 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
short order eur/chf 1.5694, sell stops.

hk ab 0.88 15:12 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
nt, if dlr/jpy 105.05 fight is vigorous, I may enter separately.

Think spect will only try max 5 attacks before they retreat. Let's decide upon the moment.

Hong Kong nt 15:09 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- place buy oda at 105.05, stop 104.50...

LondonJoe 15:08 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
http://www.federalreserve.gov/sitemap.htm

NYC 15:06 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
HK statestreet 15:05

Then ask Kevin in Boston, he has it.

london p 15:05 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 15:00 GMT January 28, 2004
Excuse me guys :-) Does the ticker have a problem with you too? Mine is dead :-( TIA

dead here as well

HK statestreet 15:05 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Yes : >

Hialeah Fxdomi 15:05 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys, I would like some advise since I am considering trading forex fulltime in the near future. I am planning to follow the Gen DK trading advises and follow it to the teeth.
please I would appreciate any feedback from you experienced traders

NYC 15:05 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
HK statestreet 15:03 ,

Do you work for State Street?

HK statestreet 15:03 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Anyone knows where to read FOMC annonc if there is any thx in advance

Ina- mr.co'z 15:00 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
hi !!

slv sam 15:00 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
anyway it is unlikely to see $/CAD much higher before visiting and breaking new low!GT

Chambery FR JFB 15:00 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Excuse me guys :-) Does the ticker have a problem with you too? Mine is dead :-( TIA

Nottingham 14:57 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
yup cad capable of going another 50-100 pips up imo gl gt

hk ab 0.88 14:53 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
sam, you must be in the position on dlr/cad.

but this short could be more painful than you expect if the direction is wrong.

what's more is, it's brought by crosses.


censored tempted to short eur/chf but trend is strong in charts.

slv sam 14:50 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Those who are strongly bullish e/$ better to short $/CAD IMHO.GT

hk ab 0.88 14:45 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
the monthly end will be very interesting.

bandung edwin 14:43 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
nt , i want to put buy on gbp/usd, how do you think??

hk ab 14:37 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
I think a break of their promise within a week on the 105 line is not something funny for them and they must revenge much harder than before.

Nottingham 14:33 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 14:31

Think we'll be lucky to get much under 105.40/50 gl gt

hk ab 14:31 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
nt, I may take a try on dlr/jpy long on that 105 line

now only hold short 1 lot from 105.80 this morning.

pocket in 50 pips from the 6 lots earlier from the buy positions.

hk ab 14:30 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
nt, I may take a try on dlr/jpy long on that 105 line

now only hold short 1 lot from 105.80 this morning.

pocket in 50 pips from the 6 lots earlier from the buy positions.

hk ab 14:28 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 13:03 GMT January 28, 2004
dlr/cad is fearing the break of cad/jpy 80 handle.

This should open the new era, shouldn't it?

Happen sooner than I expected.

If RBA do something interesting next week, same fate.

Ldn 14:24 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Noted RBA watcher Alan Mitchell has an opinion piece in today's AFR, saying that rate may be on hold for the next few months with low inflation and some slowing in the housing and
employment sectors.One US bank called for the RBA to stand pat for all of 2004 about 2 weeks ago, in what was then a
bold cal

singapore emperor 14:22 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
usdcad broke thru 50, 100 ma. bullish to test daily 200 ma. at
1.3490

London MJM 14:20 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML: That would be great, many thanks, em is [email protected]

Dallas GEP 14:19 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
There was a option at 1.3200 on caddy and that was drive for the up tick apprently.

Nottingham 14:19 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 14:17 GMT

fwiw think there's a good chance you'll get it mate...5min cable indicating text book shs formation which should be good for your levels...gl gt

ICT ML 14:17 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
would still like to pick up some cable around 1.8230 -50 today for another run at 1.8600 by weeks end........unless it just plows through the support when it gets there.......

ICT ML 14:12 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
London MJM 13:38 ...sure, need to know where to send it. You can contact me through GV

Dallas GEP 14:09 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Well It certainly isn't boring!!!! Riding the SWISSY pony, SHORT I might add. CAddy short from 1.3210

Ldn Mvs 14:06 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Sorry Alicante....stereo!! Grt minds think alike haha

Ldn Mvs 14:04 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD thru 100-day m.a. = key level - likely to pressure Euro & Gbp for momo

Alicante RTN 14:04 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Usdcad breaking through res. Be careful - indicative of more downside in cable and eurusd.

beijing road 14:02 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ML: life is getting hard this week, my g/j stopped out with +1pip.

sarasota jf 14:02 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
euryen n gbp sellers from shorter term funds punching thru

Warwick Sat 14:01 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
See you later Raden.....

beirut jb 13:58 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
hi traders

another YOYO day ,


euro should drop and test 12540 again

My $/cad long is doing well today and retrace all yesterday drop , could test 132 today also,

if euro 12540 and 12525 hold it may ranfge up again ahead FOMC

FWIW

GL GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:52 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
good night money hunters !!

Nassau QF (newb) 13:46 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
From Forex News:

1/28/2004 8:37:00 AM
US Dec Durable Goods Orders 0% (exp 2.0%, prev -2.50%) US Dec Durables Excl Trans -0.7% (exp 2.2%, prev -3.7%); Ex Defense 0.2% vs -2.2%

Buenos Aires Argenfx 13:44 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
To London MJM: Ok, friend...no problem.

Ldn 13:44 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
A number of Aussie option expirations
tipped for today including:
0.7700, 0.7670 and 0.7640 strikes, so a downward pull may persist

London MJM 13:43 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
To Buenos Aires Argenfx: Sorry, not Mario , perhaps I'll use different initials in future!

phils VL 13:42 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd - today's range so far is 120pips. I reckon its capable of moving beyond this range if recent moves are indicative. Extension today is biased towards down. We'l see.

Buenos Aires Argenfx 13:41 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
To London MJM: Hello, Mario !!! Do you remember me ? I want to contact you again because I lost your email address. Tks. & GT.

singapore emperor 13:40 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
will take note of the ss in the eurgbp.. tks

London MJM 13:38 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML ... Ta from me as well, I used the EMA cross also to make 50pip,s could you also possibly forward me the mail on guidence you sent earlier as I am fairly new too, wld be very usefull. Thnks a lot for your infomative posts...

Nottingham 13:36 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
singapore emperor 13:31

I would watch eurgbp...it held key support of 6853 to the dot and was decently higher even pre US durable number...if that support were to go I think it would be very bearish (target 6810/6800) and would obviously filter through to eurusd pair...gl gt

Global-View 13:33 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
GVI 13:33 GMT January 28, 2004
Dec durable goods orders 0.0%, market expected 2+%

Buenos Aires Argenfx 13:32 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Hmmmm. bad US indicators ?

singapore emperor 13:31 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
any ideas on the eur higher....so nervous mkt >???

Tallinn viies 13:30 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
covered my short euro from yesterday @1,2554.
because move up extended too far for my analyses. wait n see now

Buenos Aires Argenfx 13:29 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
To Athens: Thank you, friend !!!

singapore emperor 13:28 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
eur crosses bearish, put eurusd on selling pressure..
esp the eurgbp.. sell rally nvr wrong

Hong Kong nt 13:26 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
phils VL 13:22 GMT -- if believe bear bias, guess anything at 1.2600/50 or above is a good sell despite of possible noise...

singapore emperor 13:26 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Yes, agree with u VL.... if close below 1.2550 ny close, sell the crab. This friday close below 1.2580, even more bearish.

Hong Kong nt 13:23 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- hope cable goes back to 1.79 this week...

phils VL 13:22 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd - 1.2555 is around the daily 20ema. Has to close below today, to confirm the "sell the crab out of it' idea, otherwise it may be a false break.

Athens 13:22 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Buenos Aires Argenfx, as long as it holds 105.20 today the downside is prtected. Ok I am out now.

Gen dk 13:17 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 13:08 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

london p 13:08 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
mmm i do like clean triangles lol

london p 13:07 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
doesnt the euro need to go up to 2740 which is where the large triangle top is which could be a potetinal break out point .
at the moment we are in the middle of the triangle surely

Buenos Aires Argenfx 13:06 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
To Athens: Hello, friend...please, share with me your expectations on JPY for today. Tks. & GT.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 13:03 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
dlr/cad is fearing the break of cad/jpy 80 handle.

This should open the new era, shouldn't it?

Athens 13:01 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, my triangle scenario worked nicely but this is the third downleg inside it, so it could break now. Anyway, I still stick to my preferred short EUR/$ side. Good luck.

melbourne farmacia 12:58 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 12:48 GMT January 28, 2004
I 2nd that GEP.

Dallas GEP 12:58 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP on good support at .6860. Assuming 1.2560 doesn't break on Eur/USD

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 12:56 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
lower triangle

1.2450 +120 = 1.2570!!!

Right here.

So, range for the whoel NY should be 1.2570-1.2650.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 12:54 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
dlr/cad.....


tells the fate.

Dallas GEP 12:48 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Possible bounce UP on Eur/USD from here @ 1,2560 We will see

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 12:47 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 20:01 GMT January 27, 2004
omg... Athens, I can't sleep due to your last post.....

1.2775 -120 = 1.2650!!!

someone is trying to break thru RBA orders under thin condition.



Gd evening nt. Hope the gbp works out.

Hong Kong nt 12:44 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Happy birthday to all Chinese here...

phils VL 12:43 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd - take profit at 1.2573(ask) from 1.2641. Will short again later if there's a chance

Nottingham 12:40 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
imo eurgbp key support at 6953...gl gt

GA TJ 12:36 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Gone Flat Going for a morning jog. Later

GVI john 12:32 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2590�$/yen 105.75
DJIA +30 pts� 10-yr 4.09%, +1 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI�s �Market Snapshot�:
CLICK HERE

Hong Kong nt 12:32 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
HK CD -- what a co-incidence!

HK cd 12:29 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
my cousin and i short cable at 1.8350

mex sjs 12:26 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
shorting usdchf here at 1.2455 sl 1.2530 tgt below today's low gt & gl

Hong Kong nt 12:21 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- Re: USD/CAD, my wife and I guess the rise of USD/CAD may develop in wave a-b-c, wave a- 1.27-1.32, wave b- 1.32-1.30, wave c- 1.30-1.35/8. good trades...

Hong Kong nt 12:10 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- my wife and i re-enter short at 1.835...

phils VL 12:05 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
cable - 1.8370 is exactly the 50% fib projection off the 19Jan low and 23 Jan high fwiw.

Dublin Flip 12:03 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
It must be time for another empty rhetoric speech from Bush about freeing up world markets - in one direction of course
US farmers vow to use election to halt free trade deal

Nassau QF (newb) 11:58 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
THX farmacia

ICT ML 11:57 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
well here we are knocking on 1.8370 again...seems to me this has been the one consistant support/ resistance line for the last month or so....I should have a good idea when this hourly candle closes what to do...

Aden PK 11:57 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML Freinds favour me also with your technical guidance that how you use MACD RSI EMA or MA pl mail me too what indicators to follow. I must say I am really need to know. Mail ne pl at [email protected] Thankyou.

DAK TK 11:53 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ML
Will do. Much appreciate it! Thanks

melbourne farmacia 11:53 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
QF - Levels of interest on gbp/usd - 1.8379 and 1.8465 again.

ICT ML 11:50 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
also...if we stay in a side ways market those emas will become useless....just be aware of that....

ICT ML 11:49 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
DAK...check your mail later today.You are welcome

DAK TK 11:45 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML ... in one of your posts (which are excellent by the way!) yesterday you mentioned on 30 min GBP chart EMA 50 and EMA 200 crossover signals buy/sell. I followed it w/ EUR and made 41 pips on Eur today. First of all, Thank you very much!!! Secondly would like to take some of your time to learn a bit more. Are there other indicators to look for confirmation such as stochs, rsi etc? Which numbers to use in Stochs and RSI? further, how do I know when to t/p, s/l or sar? Grateful if you could find the time to help out a newbe. My email is [email protected]. Many many thanks!!

beijing road 11:41 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ML: If i am lucky, i will hold it for med-term. As you suggested, i will cover one lot btw 195-19550 level and leave another half for more gains.

melbourne farmacia 11:40 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
QF - my level based on projection target and not chart points etc.. Gbp doesn't have sell signal as yet. That said, 1.8350 comes around short term channel top.... so pull back is possible from here. Just booked some profits at 8335 level anyway. GT

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 11:40 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
I want to wait till the dlr/cad tells us something.

This early bird behaves quite welll in this January.

Nassau QF (newb) 11:38 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
What's holding EURO back?

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 11:36 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
nt, I entered one short at 1.831 one at 1.835 and the earlier one at 1.8265.

ICT ML 11:34 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
well road, glad I could help....no guts no glory....LOL ...just watch out for its nasty reversals if it chooses...but I think it has broke through a pivot line now and should be good for another 100 pips maybe...

nice trade

beijing road 11:30 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ML: i took you buy signal of g/j, and it looks very promising to me. Thanks, sir.

phils VL 11:26 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
cable Jan 23 hgh v. 27 Jan low - 61.8%R at 1.8330, 76.4%R at 1.8410. Will it try 76.4 or its had enough for today?

Nassau QF (newb) 11:24 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, would 1.8350 change that view?
If not, is there a number that would?

melbourne farmacia 11:22 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF (newb) 11:03 GMT January 28, 2004

melbourne farmacia 02:38 GMT January 28, 2004
This current Gbp/Usd swing from 1.8017 should complete at 1.8335 fwiw.
Target done, so gbp might take a break before moving some more. GT

phils VL 11:21 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Seems like sterling is carrying euro last several hours. 10min cable chart showing weakness from divergenceon stochs and macd. Suspect cable may be taking abreather soon.

SA getFX 11:19 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
TA mumble:
Euro has formed cup and is forming handle (30 min). Potential high 1.27-1.28?
38.2 Fib = daily pivot at ~1.2580
Jitter at 1.2600 - "Feel" - down....
:) ? GL!

Brisbane L 11:16 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
On the wires, Economy Minister admits that the strong euro is a risk to the
German recovery, and the ECB is 'watching the situation closely'

Gen dk 11:13 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

ICT ML 11:12 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
QF...it is in a sideways channel, that is forming the shoulders of the H&S I referred to earlier....it has stopped so far at the top of the channel with a possible 15 min sell signal trying to complete, and the bottom of that channel is at 1.8225 right now....

Alicante RTN 11:12 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Usdcad may have found a s/t top at 61 fibo retracement at 1.3115.

Cable is trying to break out to the upside but eurusd is holding it back as it seems glued to 1.2600/05 level.

GA TJ 11:10 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Just moved Stop on Cable to 1.8270. Locked in 100 PIPs profit. Get that Swissy thing going south and I will be happy. Also watch the Aussie. It is about to complete a Sell Signal on my system but it is weak. Am not going to follow the Sell but might follow the Buy if it comes back up to 7780

Nassau QF (newb) 11:03 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
I thought cable was going to shoot up but something is holding it back.

ICT ML 11:01 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
TJ...I still would like to buy some at 1.8250 today sometime.....don't know that we get the chance....but....

PAR 11:00 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Grennspan will change FED statement- will keep interest rates on hold - "for a considerable period" in " till after the US elections". Sell the dollar.

GA TJ 10:58 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
I have got to find an extra 2 minutes of patience.

Dallas GEP 10:58 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
BCN, It's possible that a stop loss og 106.60 MIGHT not have taken him out depending upon how the platform provider works stops. If they are worked MANUALLY then it's possible that he could have been kept in but the VAST majority of us would have been stopped out.

Nassau QF (newb) 10:58 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
8330 brokem on cable

GA TJ 10:57 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ML
Are you beginning to think that Cable may not be able to break the 1.8330 level without a pullback first. Ausie has broken support for now and Euro is barely holding support. Thinking of exiting everything and reevaluate in a couple hours.

Nassau QF (newb) 10:55 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
BCN, I've heard good things about GenDK and also Team Forex.
Those two are given higher reviews than other signal providers. (most are bad or overpriced)

I haven't used either myself.

Don't know why it's that stop loss though.

Dallas GEP 10:53 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
TJ technicals support the short. IF price action will just follow technicals we will be fine!!!! LOL

PAR 10:51 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
GBP will benefit from Tony Blairs succesfull week. He proved that contrary to Chirac, Schroeder and other European leader he is capable of reforming the economic and social structure. This is why the UK economy is doing so well while Europ starts to ressemble the former soviet union.

BCN 10:49 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
How can GenDK be USDJPY short with a stoploss at 106.60 ?..... when the spike has reached 106.61 / 106.65 ???!! is he scamming like many other signal providers??

GA TJ 10:48 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP. Now I know there is hope for my Short USDCHF:)

Dallas GEP 10:45 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Shorted USD/CHF @ 1.2448

Nassau QF (newb) 10:43 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Thanks ML.

I'll keep watching and learning.

ICT ML 10:41 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
QF...I would say that is trying to break out of a flag pole and an ascending triangle right now.....signals are not very strong right now for me though

Nassau QF (newb) 10:37 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ML, did cable look like a break out of a flag on 30 min to you?

Still learning charts so I can't tell for sure.

SPB Mike 10:36 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
10x Cashman!
Let your cashflow run forever! :)

Ldn Cashman 10:30 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Mike, it's on the following:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3435861.stm

Gen dk 10:28 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

SPB Mike 10:28 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
london cam

10x!

london cam 10:27 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
by "released" I mean "LEAKED"

london cam 10:24 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
SPB Mike - Hutton report due to be released 12:30 gmt, however understand information clearing blair already released so i would say that the market has discounted it

SPB Mike 10:21 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Hello guys!
Does anybody know when Hutton's report will be released?
Is it already discounted by the market?

GL> 4all

ICT ML 10:04 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
GEP...yep...warning shot fird off right at europe opening....

Melbourne Qindex 10:03 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:22 GMT January 28, 2004
EUR/USD : A projected resistant level has been established at 1.2652 - 1.2661

Dallas GEP 10:03 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Guys I assume this 106.61 was a legitimate feed on USD/JPY and not just a feed spike???? Just got up, a little groggy!!!! LOL

Melbourne Qindex 10:01 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 21:15 GMT January 27, 2004
EUR/USD : ................................ The critical point of my daily cycle is located at 1.2638. The upper barrier is positioning at 1.2730 // 1.2761 and the lower barrier is expected at 1.2516 // 1.2547.


... 1.2454 ... 1.2516 // 1.2547, 1.2577, 1.2608, 1.2638*, 1.2669, 1.2699, 1.2730 // 1.2761 ...

LAX-LGB SNP 09:59 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
sell signals apparent on EURJPY - if levels can confirm for another hour then i'll join in the dive

TTYL TC everyone :-)

GA TJ 09:59 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
FWIW

My stuff just flashed an early signal to Short USDJPY. It has a couple of more criteria to go before I would trade it. I hate shorting that pair becuase of the "I" word.

Also re-entered Short USDHF @ 1.2434 Stop @1.2465. Trying to correct that stupid move from last night.

Dallas GEP 09:58 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Well QF, I was glad to see you got out at least with USD/JPY being a SELL on Rallies type of situation. I seee the MOF spiked things up to 106.60

Nassau QF (newb) 09:55 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Got scared and exited at Break Even.
That was before the really big move.

Got a little on the way down from the move though.

Dallas GEP 09:54 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
QF. did you take profits on your USD/JPY longs?????

LAX-LGB SNP 09:43 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
however
going by the trough-breakout theory on GBPJPY there's a falling TL @ 194.35 which needs to go before GBPUSD can mount an assault for 196

LAX-LGB SNP 09:40 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 09:26 GMT January 28, 2004
was confused about $majors but thanks for the idea
gbpusd reverse h&s = trough on the 240 min and price is clearly free of Asia's 1.82x lows so as long as those lows hold a test of 1.8480-1.85 seems iminent

Brissy JM 09:20 GMT January 28, 2004
always makes sense to reverse if and when proven levels are broken :-)

Nassau QF (newb) 09:39 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
This is from Robert Balan Earlier:

GBP/USD - the rally peaked at 1.8291 and has corrected since then to 1.8236. An initial upmove has since then emanated from that trough, but we may see another test of the low prior to a more sustained rise later in the day. But the rally should go on thereafter. take out the 1.8320 swing point, and launch the currency pair towards the 1.8578 top. But expect detours and possible sidetracking as the market will likely be buffeted by news pertaining to the G7 meeting next week

nyc 09:38 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
if "considerable period" words comes......1,86 on gbp and 1,28+ on euro,imo.

GA TJ 09:36 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ML

Don't see the H&S on Cable. But I do see the 1.2580-90 area as critical for the EURUSD. Break that level and my plans are totally screwed. Made stupid mistake last night when I added to USDCHF short. Brought my stop down to low and it got hit for a B/E Trade. Still up 135 PIPs on Cable though. Missed the GBPJPY entry. After I get the coffee made will take a closer look.

nyc 09:35 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
8360/70 i mean

nyc 09:35 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
after overcome 1,8260/70 neck area, very problably that to happen.....

Nassau QF (newb) 09:33 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
That would be sweet ML.
I'm long cable since 1.8253

1.8330 is supposed to be a hurdle according to one of the FX sites.

ICT ML 09:26 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
anyone else seeing a potential reverse H&S on hourly cable chart? With a target of 1.8600????

Brissy JM 09:20 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP
I tend to agree with you, though if it breaks .7820 I will turn bullish and target .8000 plus.

Alicante RTN 09:19 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Usdcad in ideal reversal territory between 50 and 61 fibo level of latest down move.

If it tops out between 1.3100 and 1.3115, expect to see a fresh leg upwards in eurusd and cable.

AUS 09:15 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
on way to new high .7900

LAX-LGB SNP 09:14 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
JM
3 touches @ 0.78 since the start of the Chinese new year
so i am selling upticks

Brissy JM 09:06 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Hello All - Does anyone have a view on AUD?

LAX-LGB SNP 09:00 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
USDCAD bouncing off rising TL @ 1.3046 from Jan13th through Jan22nd
if price can break past 1.32-1.3215 zone then its byebye Kansas till 1.34xx

phils VL 08:47 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Saloniko

agree with the big picture theory if you generalise. In the specific case of usd/jpy hwever, look at your charts. Over the last 22 days/bars, it has dropped only 156 pips and trader holds and profits 156 pips(short, and paying interest).

The daily range over the same period is low of 30ips and high of 210 pips, mainly over 85 pips per day.

Inthis case it is more real to scalp and follow the swings than look at the "big" picture!

nyc 08:46 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
possible H&S on 60 min chart eur/chf ?

uk mm 08:44 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
shalom raden, we look forward for your update for several days, yet until now we found nothing.... wats up!

Alicante RTN 08:34 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
HK ab: would appreciate your views on eurchf.

krgds

hk ab 0.88 08:23 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
nt, is your wife in yet?

planning planning.

saloniko 2004 nk..1.43 08:22 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..

$/J below 105.50 last days and too much noise about bids etc..

Best strategy is close @!@ and try focus on Big charts if the truth is there but still Boys of judo spend their times in bla bla bla..

Thats a personal opinion ...

Have a nice day

nk

hk ab 0.88 08:22 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Gd afternoon Noody and Kung Hay Fat Choi!

The start of the Monkey year gave us tonnes of volatility.

Are you in aussie yourself?

MONACO OGA 08:17 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 28/01
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2620). The pair drifted higher yesterday due to a better German IFO and weaker US consumer confidence index. 1,2450 now appears as a strong support for the next sessions supports while resistance lies at 1,2660-80 today.
Technically, the EUR/USD seems to be experiencing a consolidation inside 1,23-1,29 with a equilibrium point around 1,2500.
For today we will still be looking to play the range 1,2580-1,2680. As long as 1,2300 is not taken, we still believe in the medium term uptrend, our target remains at 1,3500.

Data out today:
US durable good orders Dec expected 2,0% 13.30 GMT
US new home sales Dec expected 1100K 15.00 GMT
US FOMC rate decision expected unchanged at 1% 19.15 GMT

Gold around 410,50 , with WTI February at 33,96.

***JPY***
USD/JPY (currently 106,00) hedging lower as days go by and settling down below 106 now. Traders are less concerned of BOJ action since finance minister Mr TANIGAKI stated that BOJ JPY selling was not aimed at keeping a specified rate, but rather avoid sharp moves. Aslow move towards 100 looks therefore possible again later this year.
EUR/JPY (currently 133,60) rebounded on 132,00-50 big support. We are now looking for a test of 135 again.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8300) printed 1,8020 before rebounding sharply on stronger than expected CBI manufacturer confidence survey (high 1,8280). For today we'll be looking to play 1,8220-1,8380.
EURGBP (0,6895) experiencing some range trading inside 0,6870-0,6930 since mid January. We still favour the downside for the medium term but we need to clear 0,6870 first.

Have a nice day,

Olivier

Spr NoodyG 08:10 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
L:dn 05:46 GMT January 28, 2004
Aggressive spec name cited selling good size Eur/Usd and Aud/Usd. UK interest also noted helping trigger the stops below 1.2600 and 1.2590 in Eur/Usd. Initial support seen at 1.2565 the 23 Jan low.

Having a good laugh over this one...must be another creative piece from MMS/MCM

all buy orders on the Oz below and stops on top!

Melbourne Qindex 08:10 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:06 GMT January 28, 2004
EUR/USD (adjusted) : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels


... 1.2585 // 1.2600, 1.2615, 1.2631, 1.2646 // 1.2661 ...

Singapore Pilot 08:09 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
yep ... what an anti-climax..... time to sell eur/gbp

phils VL 07:59 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd small short at 1.2641 s/l abv 1.2685

Ldn 07:47 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Now what , were getting back to the 10550 again ?

phils VL 07:38 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
I guess the intervention serves only as a caution to the European session that BOJ is around, to reduce the volatility somewhat?

Sydney2 07:31 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
no BOJ anymore, it may just want to scare the market only.

singapore emperor 07:30 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
50-60 pips in the money is good

Tallinn viies 07:29 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
good morning

fwiw, German Economy Minister Clement delivers the German govt"s annual economic report at 10:30 GMT. The draft seen last week indirectly urges the ECB to cut rates if the Eur appreciates further.

Singapore Pilot 07:27 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
yeah..gone are the days where everyone makes money....
nowadays if you try to turn your possy ..probably end up hitting the highs or lows ....have to be happy with the small money

sarasota jf 07:26 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
dont put much faith in intervention usdyen will go down - the tide has turned

phils VL 07:24 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Intervention just before Zurich came in as a caution to the EZ players. Market now seems undecided, and the Swiss are waiting for the Germans to see what to do.

I guess eur has probably seen today's high and will ease further later below day low, and of course usd/jpy up to 107+

Ldn Mvs 07:22 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
well exactly - we can only live in hope! Reckon too many orders on top from exporters, coupled with US fund int to buy yen in anticiaption of Chinese ongoing story......just gotta be real quick to take profit on these moves n not be too greedy!

Melbourne Qindex 07:21 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 07:17 GMT - The market is now trading outside my daily cycle normal trading range and the odds are in favour of buy on dips when the market is approaching 106.03 - 106.19.

Singapore Pilot 07:20 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
welcome Mvs....bit disappointing though...what happened to those 3 to 5 big figure days?

singapore emperor 07:19 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
regional cb all in intervention mood.
verbal intervention was the hint yesterday by MOF

Melbourne Qindex 07:18 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market will look quite positive if it can overcome the projected resistance at 107.08 // 107.70.

singapore emperor 07:18 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
tks pilot.... u r the best...

QC WC 07:17 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Qindex: Would it be correct to conclude maximum Usd can rise versus yen is only 107.27 for today? Or only 106.65? TIA

Ldn Mvs 07:16 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
domo arigato pilot

Singapore Pilot 07:16 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
hope that answers your question mate...guess coupled with stops being taken out as well...

Singapore Pilot 07:14 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   

14:51 28Jan2004 RTRS-DOLLAR RISES SUDDENLY, UP ONE YEN ON DAY -- TOKYO DEALERS
14:52 28Jan2004 RTRS-BOJ INTERVENTION SUSPECTED IN FX MARKET FROM ABOUT 105.80 YEN -- TOKYO DEALERS
15:03 28Jan2004 RTRS-BOJ seen buying dollars from Y105.80 - traders

TOKYO, Jan 28 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan was seen buying dollars against the yen from about 105.80 yen on Wednesday, Tokyo traders said.
The dollar suddenly jumped to a high of 106.65 yen shortly after the suspected BOJ action before falling back to 106.07/10 as of 0703 GMT, traders said.
A senior currency trader in Tokyo said the central bank appeared to be intervening through several Japanese banks.
((Reporting by Chikafumi Hodo; Reuters messaging: [email protected]; +81-3-3432-8785))
For Related News, Double Click on one of these codes:
[M] [T] [E] [D] [J] [NAT] [U] [UKI] [EMK] [US] [JP] [FRX] [EUR] [ASIA] [NEWS] [LEN] [RTRS]
Wednesday, 28 January 2004 14:51:10
RTRS [nTAV000584] {EN}
ENDS

Melbourne Qindex 07:13 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is doing alright after it has overcome the projected resistance at 105.85.

Ldn Mvs 07:11 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
so can anybody confirm whether that was just a stop run or were the BoJ actually in???

Melbourne Qindex 07:05 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : 5-Day Cycle Quantised Levels

... // 105.42 - 106.03 - 106.65 // ...


After Expansion :-

... // 105.42* - 105.73 - 106.03* - 106.34 - 106.65 * // 106.96 - 107.27*

Singapore Pilot 07:03 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
hahah yep thanks mate....waiting for next wave.... had good amount to buy just now above 106.40 was afraid i wudn't be able to get em back when it was 106.60 bid and we were still short ...whew!!

Melbourne Qindex 07:02 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : 5-Day Cycle Quantised Levels

... // 105.42 - 106.03 - 106.65 // ...

singapore emperor 07:00 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
pilot well dun in the usyen ...
so stops all triggered..

Sydney2 06:58 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
keep going, BOJ!!!!!!!!!!

beijing road 06:58 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
but just stopped out at breakeven for my u/j.

Melbourne Qindex 06:56 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:55 GMT January 28, 2004
USD/JPY : Use my weekly cycle charts for reference today.

hk ab 0.88 06:54 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
think they have a 2nd gun.

Daxx should not hint the timing and they CHANGED!

anyway, just forget it and be serious now.

singapore emperor 06:54 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
DREAMS COME TRUE..... BOJ

Ldn MVS 06:54 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
for the train ride - no shinkansen!

beijing road 06:52 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ML: my G/J looks great now.haha

Rivonia PipPirate 06:52 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Ahh So

beijing road 06:50 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
haha, get on the boj train.

Stockholm za 06:50 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
CHF/JPY >>> .... today.....
8637-8596
8554-8541
8487
8432-8419
8378-8336
True Range on ~[8661-:-8225]
Happy trades.

Singapore Pilot 06:49 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
BOJ in

Singapore Pilot 06:46 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Old news...came out awhile ago...
Tanigaki : To Carefully Mull If To Up Gold In FX Reserves


DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

TOKYO -- Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said Wednesday his ministry will carefully consider whether to change the composition of its $673.53 billion in foreign reserves, including the weighting of gold in that total.

"As it might affect the gold market, we will consider various things carefully," he told the Lower House's Fiscal, Monetary and Financial Policy Committee, when asked whether Tokyo would bring its gold reserves more in line with other nations.

According to December foreign reserve data, Japan has $10.24 billion worth of gold, or 24.6 million troy ounces, a very low amount compared with other nations including the U.S.

hk ab 0.88 06:29 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
note the divergence in cad.

Brisbane 06:26 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
(MMS) NKS"s "Position" column reports a view prevailing in the mkt that recent BoJ monetary easing was a herald of Japan- Europe cooperation against the US"s "weak Dlr" stance. The story highlights the "close relationship" b/w BoJ Fukui & ECB Trichet (it also cites a few cases in the past when Japan used "French channel" to grope for int"l cooperation on fx), and says BOJ easing can help Trichet to fend off a group that is reluctant to cooperate with Japan, by arguing that Japan is also acting on the monetary front. Meanwhile, JIJI"s speculative item says that contrary to their official stance that ECB will not cut rates for fx reason, European senior officials are sending monetary sources in Washington a "strong signal" that they are ready to ease rates

Ldn 06:18 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
John Riding Bear Stearns Chief Market Analyst on Kudlow and Cramer CNBC NY. says see the Fed changing stance and leaning towards a hike sooner than most think..

timbuktoo 06:16 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Theres never been a meaning to their intervention since day one

Brisbane L 06:14 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
MOF intervention getting meaningless

hk ab 0.88 06:12 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
take profit and short 105.80

singapore emperor 06:09 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
staying in trend for eur upside for 1.2730 when ny comes in

Ldn 06:08 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
(Bloomberg) Australia's inflation slowed in the fourth quarter, pushing the annual increase to the lowest in four years

Ldn 05:48 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
(AP)Despite easing monetary policy last week, Bank of Japan board members will likely start quietly discussing how the central bank will exit its ultra-easy policy once deflation is defeated. Wary of sparking a premature rise in interest rates and undoing the BOJ's efforts to assure investors its zero-rate policy will stay for the foreseeable future, the board will initially keep the discussion under wraps, people close to the BOJ say.

L:dn 05:46 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Aggressive spec name cited selling good size Eur/Usd and Aud/Usd. UK interest also noted helping trigger the stops below 1.2600 and 1.2590 in Eur/Usd. Initial support seen at 1.2565 the 23 Jan low.

NYC YIPPEE 05:40 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
27 January - National Australia Bank (NAB) has revised its pre-tax losses arising from unauthorised foreign exchange options trading to A$360 million ($277.4 million), double last week�s initial estimate.

The revised figure follows a revaluation of the bank�s entire forex options portfolio, which revealed a further A$175 million loss on top of the A$185 million announced last week. This means NAB will post after tax losses of A$252 million. The bank had initially estimated the pre-tax loss to be A$180 million.
�We have worked as quickly as possible to identify all of the losses arising from the foreign currency options trading accurately,� said NAB chief executive Frank Cicutto, adding that an external auditor had confirmed the revaluation of the trading portfolio. �We will ensure that our ongoing position will be managed in a prudent and conservative manner.�

Last week, Cicutto admitted that four forex options traders had exploited �weaknesses� in the bank�s internal procedures, adding that these flaws had now been eliminated. The bank is currently conducting a full investigation into the unauthorised trades, which centred on Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar options, while the country�s regulator, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, is conducting a separate review of NAB�s risk management controls. The results from NAB�s internal inquiry should be completed by the end of February, the bank said.

Nonetheless, dealers continue to express surprise that NAB�s internal controls hadn�t flagged the unauthorised trades earlier. The rogue trading spanned three months, starting last October. �It�s incredibly difficult to hide A$360 million in options losses,� said one dealer, asking not to be named. �It�s difficult to see how this was missed.�

bdg zilfallon 05:25 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
cable support at 1.8205 with resistance at 1.8420/1.8480/1.8532 , so i suggest buy at 1.8205 with s/l at 1.8180 to get 1.8420/1.8480/1.8532 as t/p

GL/GT

Ldn 05:12 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
An avian influenza outbreak sweeping Asia could hurt Australia through its potential impact on tourism, Treasurer Peter Costello said Wednesday
Costello described the bird flu as a serious disease outbreak
The last thing the Australian industry needs is any impediment to overseas travel given what he said are already low levels of consumer confidence in travel
ABC

hk ab 0.88 05:10 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
No, gun....
trail dlr/jpy pair at 80 for all lots.

spore pink 05:09 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
any ideas on how the london markets will behve today friends?

Caribbean! Rafe... 05:00 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
whoo! i am in a JAP SLAPPING mood with GBP/JPY!

socal mar 05:00 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
hopefully better than the seller

socal mar 05:00 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
hopefully better than the seller

timbuktoo 04:57 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
how does one define good name?

singapore emperor 04:47 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
gd name buying eurusd in the mkt........
technical ss at 1.2580-85. buy w stops below 1.2560

hk ab 0.88 04:45 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
back from lunch, 16 mins left.

Al emm 04:24 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Hi
Australian government bonds likely to head higher short-term with benign 4Q CPI helping, but also FOMC statement which likely dovish, say CSFB strategists; market coming round to view RBA may be on hold for some time. 3-year government bond yield now 5.41%, down from 5.47% at yesterday's close.

Ldn 04:16 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Symmetrical triangle building in EUR/USD since mid-January implies market will consolidate sideways next few days, but triangle must be triggered by end of next week, which should provide direction. Lower edge of triangle now 1.2465 and rising about 0.0020/day, upper edge 1.2750 and falling about 0.0015/day; expect move of about 0.0450 in direction of breakout. EUR/USD's long-term trend remains bullish, so odds favor breakout on upside reuters.

Miami OMIL 04:15 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 (Yummy or Mummy) good one I will remember that one lol. (/;-> GT

Miami OMIL 04:11 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Looks like eur/usd will hold at 1.2660-70 and indicators are turning down south again. Fib retracement give or take a few pips is 1.2615-10, (1.2580), (1.2550) (1.2525) and 1.2500-1.2490. The support for now is around 1.2560-50 IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Nassau QF (newb) 04:07 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
What about GBP/USD?
That's moving in the opposite direction.
Do you think that maybe GBP/JPY is rising just because of a temporary intervention on the dollar/yen?

I don't know myself.

Ldn 04:05 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Asia airline stocks generally weaker fretting over widening bird flu outbreak in region and possible impact on tourism: Qantas off 0.9%, Singapore Airlines 1.7%, Cathay down 1.7%, Thai, . signs of fall in forward bookings with hope that the tourism industry say analysts wont take major hit;

Singapore Pilot 04:05 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
triggering some stoppies now at 105.95.. i have more at 106.35

beijing road 04:03 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML : I also see it is worth trying to long on 1h, 4h and 8h chart.

beijing road 04:00 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML : if it moves high, it might be huge. I enter at this level, have to use widen stop at 19250 level.

Brisbane 04:00 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Australian Treasurer Costello tells reporters in Melbourne bird flu epidemic affecting parts of Asia "very serious", has potential to hurt local and Asian tourist trade and economies, highlighting SARS virus's impact; urges authorities to do all they can to contain outbreak; this one of strongest expressions of concern by a regional official so far on spread of bird flu. Australia airline shares weaker in soft overall market; Qantas down 0.6%, Virgin Blue 3.2% lower

beijing road 03:58 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
BUy 2 lots at 193.36.

ICT ML 03:58 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Road...I think so, but it is moving slower than I thought it would...so I am not in .

beijing road 03:54 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ML: GBP/JPY looks good to buy?

Hong Kong nt 03:42 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- if i have to trade usd/jpy, my entry level would be 105.0, aim 107.0, stop 104.5...

hk ab 0.88 03:31 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
nice lunch time, see ya all later.

hk ab 0.88 03:31 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
time will tell.

hk ab 0.88 03:28 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
delayed trains.

SF Augustus 03:27 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88:

what are you talking about? BOJ intervention? where are you hearing this? USD/JPY has slowly slithered up 15 pips in the last hr. on my platform, hardly looks like the bank.

hk ab 0.88 03:24 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
jf, themove of eur/chf looks strange isn't it?

Ldn 03:19 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Bird Flu In Chickens Spreads To 12 More Thai Provinces

singapore emperor 03:14 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
RESIS.... USDJPY 106.00-10.
HEARD STOPS ABV 106.20-30 REGION......
EURYEN SELLERS ARE AT 133.80-85

hk ab 0.88 03:12 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
a 2nd destination is possible too.


and we meet the James bond again .77777

hk ab 0.88 03:11 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
thick cushion.

hk ab 0.88 03:10 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
but timing of the BOJ gun is strange if it fires now.

hk ab 0.88 03:08 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
sitting tight at 80 handle.... hmm....

yummy or mummy.

hk ab 0.88 03:07 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Here we go plz.
interesting.

hk ab 0.88 03:06 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
make a guess, where will be the lamp post?

I think 107.20 this run.

Brisbane L 03:05 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
I recall an analyst who lives out in Japan, Curtis cant remember his full name possible BNP ,saying about 3 yrs ago that the Yen would reach 1.60 against the dollar due to the dire situation , this is similar to we are getting now with calls of the Euro/Dlr over 1.40 with no top insight. not sure what will turn the Dollars fortunes around but dont see this as the one way street some analyst are calling - nothing is open ended.

hk ab 0.88 03:04 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
and ready to snap it back even harder.

hk ab 0.88 03:03 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
whoosh....

Let's go. don't stand in front of the train.

singapore emperor 03:01 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
push higher baby........ verbal intervention started again jpy

hk ab 0.88 03:00 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
long 5 lots 105.78

hk ab 0.88 03:00 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
buy buy buy buy ....

just press it.

hk ab 0.88 02:59 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
nt, don't miss the BOJ gun!!!

Singapore Pilot 02:59 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
BOJ buying usd yen ? 105.80 bid..stops seen from 105.85 to 106.35 ..reckon mkt short plenty

Hong Kong nt 02:57 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- we took profit at 1.805 and now she wants to sell again at 1.830...

USA Biscuit Boy 02:57 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Sold cable at 70.

hk ab 0.88 02:54 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
nt, I am not a veyr good beast player, so just SAR of my original long @1.8265. and I think playing small with this is better for me.

What does your wife say? Maybe that gives us a clue.

Hong Kong nt 02:51 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- re-enter all GBP shorts at 1.83, any idea?

singapore emperor 02:46 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
jap sold o/n usd put at 105.50
decent bids at 105.45-50 region
verbal interveniton yesterday, sell rally is the best strategy

melbourne farmacia 02:38 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
This current Gbp/Usd swing from 1.8017 should complete at 1.8335 fwiw.

LAX-LGB SNP 02:37 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
GEP - right on ! :-)

$$$ majors look all mixed up to me ... oh well no news is always good news

TTYL everyone GL :-)

Dallas GEP 02:31 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
OK SNP, I normally do the same thing MIDNIGHT CST myself.

LAX-LGB SNP 02:27 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
GEP ... ML - wazzupp guyz
there's more than 18 hours between now and NYC close so i think i'll jump in after midnite my time

LAX-LGB SNP 02:25 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
current GBPJPY monthly ranges need to hold till this weekend if price is to aim lower next week

Dallas GEP 02:25 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
OK I see so this GBP/JPY is either going to kick our assss or we are going to be happier than a puppy with two tails??? DO I get to choice which one??? LOL

hk ab 0.88 02:23 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
finally we have a close under 106 in dlr/jpy.

close two lots long for few pips and only keep one from 105.59.

See what could happen in today sessions, my view is if BOJ doesn't come in, we probably see the attack on 105 during NY.

LAX-LGB SNP 02:22 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
after yesterday's shooting star on GBPJPY - expect price to break out big time either side of 192.90-193.05

ICT ML 02:21 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
GEP, my read is that it is pushing up against 193.15, which was previous major support on the twice before on this trip up.... and has been resistance twice before on this way up...so 3rd time is a charm right?......and my 30 min stuff formed a stochastic slingshot aiming North........so I may try to buy a strong break to the upside.

my hourly stuff says that it is half way to its destination which ever way it goes...more or less

of course if it fails here.......trpile failure sends it back towards 191.0

Dallas GEP 02:20 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
SO TJ you average stop is around 20 PIPS from entry????

LAX-LGB SNP 02:19 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
GBPCHF has spent the last 3 weeks fighting to stay above 2.2790 - seems easy enough to pull out at least 6 cents between 2.28 and 2.26

GA TJ 02:18 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
This tired dog is calling it a night. Left a "Pick-em" order in for GBPJPY to Buy @ 192.60 w/ Stop @ 192.45. Might get lucky. All other Stops are at B/E. Worst case scenario is I lose 15 PIPs while snoozing. See you folks in the morning.

GEP my GBPJPY puts the odds in favor of up. But then again I only win 39%, Lose 38%, B/E 23%. But the Avg Win / Avg Loss is 5.46. Good luck to all.

LAX-LGB SNP 02:14 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
very interesting formation on monthly USDCAD - expect price to shoot higher if this month's ranges can hold price till the weekend

AUDUSD's making a triple-top below 0.7800 - any ideas what comes next ?

Dallas GEP 02:14 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ON second thought ML, MACD D is bouncing from 80 to 50 to 80 50 and the price action remained level so YEA, it does look long.

ICT ML 02:12 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
I'll look closer now.....might want to get in on this myself...

Ldn 02:12 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
RBA measures of Australian 4Q CPI also benign, with both weighted median CPI, trimmed mean CPI rising 0.4% on quarter, 2.5% and 2.3% on-year respectively. RBA measures focus on underlying inflation, suggest it's currently well contained toward lower end of RBA's 2-3% target band. RBA measures also likely to add to market view RBA will keep rates steady after next week's board meeting
ap

Dallas GEP 02:10 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ML Stochs and MACD both on GBP/JPY are showing SHORT or am I FOS????

hk ab 0.88 02:04 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Yoyo is back.....

Monkey is jumping!

A good sign in the new year.

GA TJ 02:04 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML

What can I say. Got a plan and I stick with it for better or worse. Oh my Gosh....sounds like a wife!!!

Perth SA 01:59 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   

Agricultural production drops 17 per cent
The gross value of agricultural production dropped 17 per cent to $33 billion in 2002-03, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said today.
The value of crop production fell 26 per cent to $15.9 billion, with the worst hit wheat, which dropped 59 per cent to $2.6 billion.
smh.

GA TJ 01:58 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
What the censored. Added to Short

Current First Second Third Forth Average PIPs Total
Position Price Entry Entry Entry Entry Entry Per PIPS
USDCHF Short 12431 12492 12416 12454 23 46

ICT ML 01:57 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
TJ...holy crap...gbp/jpy is about to EXPLODE. 30 min BB's are about to touch each other....LOL...I would have a buy stop above the resistance a good ways, which is at 193.15 38.2 fib...because while I "think" it is going up, I am not 100% on it...good luck

GA TJ 01:52 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Just got back from dinner. Looks like my targets to add to short Swissy @1.2455-75 might have been a little high as well as target to add Long GBPUSD @1.8220-40 a liitle low Debating adding here. Target to enter Long GBPJPY @192.45-65 missed by 4 stink'in PIPs. Wondering if I should "chase
" the market?

ldn 01:45 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Despite ZAR strength over past two years there's increasing nervousness in market, raising sensitivity of USD/ZAR to events, disappointing data releases, says StanChart's Razia Khan

Ldn 01:45 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Australian Treasurer Costello welcomes 4Q CPI outcome as evidence inflation pressures remain subdued in robust economy; while RBA has voiced concerns about medium-term risks tilting upwards, Costello argues no threat of outbreak in inflationary factors; "we certainly don't see inflation moving outside the (RBA target) band of 2 to 3 per cent," he tells reporters. With election expected in 2H04, government keen to distance itself from likelihood of at least 1 more rate hike
ABC

singapore fei mao 01:41 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
uk sun leaking report that says blair totally exonerated in suicide of dr.kelly

Ldn 01:33 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Boy On Bali May Have Bird Flu - Report

Singapore Pilot 01:23 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
quick question guys...we all know who has been buying Usd/Jpy....but apart from the Japanese exporters, who else been selling? the Specs? if so then the mkt must be really really short rite? In theory the BOJ can buy an unlimited amount of Dlrs rite? Just print more yen?

sg 8887 01:17 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
tks melbourne. i still hold my euro s @ 1.2535

melbourne farmacia 01:06 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Picked up worm called MyDoom, gone for good i hope.

Melbourne Qindex 01:06 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:10 GMT January 28, 2004
EUR/USD : the market rhythm of 0.00153 is used in the daily cycle projection. See details in my page if the market is trading outside the range of 1.2585 - 1.2661.

Melbourne Qindex 00:05 GMT January 28, 2004
EUR/USD (adjusted) : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels


... 1.2585 // 1.2600, 1.2615, 1.2631, 1.2646 // 1.2661 ...

Melbourne Qindex 01:05 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:22 GMT January 28, 2004
EUR/USD : A projected resistant level has been established at 1.2652 - 1.2661.

Melbourne Qindex 01:04 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 21:15 GMT January 27, 2004
EUR/USD : My weekly cycle charts indicate that the market is able to pull out from the lower barrier at 1.2443 // 1.2547. It is likely that the market will consolidate between 1.2547 - 1.2652 in Asia time...................

Ldn 01:00 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Australian 4Q CPI gives RBA luxury of time to wait for more data on how November, December rate hikes have affected economy, says RBC Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong; adds RBA probably on hold next week-TD Securities chief strategist Stephen Koukoulas. Suggests Australia well on track for 1.5%-1.75% annual inflation rate in 1H04, below RBA 2.0%-3.0% target band. "If there was ever reinforcement needed for the Reserve Bank to take a chill pill, I think this low inflation number locks in a rates on hold decision for next week," he says

Melbourne Qindex 01:00 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Ldn 00:57 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Talk that bids below up to the 105.00 is slowly pulling out might see more downside bias in the USD/JPY

Seattle SUN 00:57 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
I am using AVG 6.0 behind a firewall and have never had a problem with a virus. Knock on wood!

SS

Eilat Dolphin 00:56 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ Each pip the Japanese bankers are "losing" on the falling $ and I hear shouting coming from there, everywhere; it's not earthquakes they are talking about, but yenquakes. Even the Emperor...ok, may be not the Emperor.

So they'll defend their Cross to the last Samoura�.
Till the next crusade.
The next day.

Happy evening GEP San.

brisbane sunstate 00:49 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 23:45 GMT
If anyone is interested in a good free anti-virus program AVG has made it available for single home users worldwide http://www.grisoft.com/us/us_dwnl_free.php

Melbourne Qindex 00:49 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : A projected barrier is positioning at 0.7794 - 0.7798.

Melbourne Qindex 00:48 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:46 GMT January 28, 2004
AUD/USD : The critical point of my daily cycle is positioning at 0.7829. The lower barrier is expected at 0.7737 // 0.7768 and the upper barrier is located at 0.7860 // 0.7891.

... 0.7737 // 0.7768, 0.7798, 0.7829*, 0.7860 // 0.7891 ...

Melbourne Qindex 00:46 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dallas GEP 00:45 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Yes sir Deano you know what I mean. Don't listen to what I say Listen to what I am thinking!!! LOL

OZ deanobravo 00:43 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
GEP, guessing you mean 0.7810.........target topside is 0.7825/30 area where there are supposedly fairly good size s/l orders....so would be worth a try I think with a tight stop or indeed a stop/rev around 0.7830...gl gt

Dallas GEP 00:41 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin, I hope you are right about that as well rE: 105.20 but it DOES look heavy.

Dallas GEP 00:40 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
DEANO, I was thinking of shorting Aussie fron .8810. What are you thoughts on that idea????

Gen dk 00:39 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Ldn 00:37 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Explosion At Australia Port Kembla

Brisbane L 00:34 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY selling out of Tokyo from around the 133.60 level this morning .

OZ deanobravo 00:33 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
AUST CPI dec qtr...came out bang on expectations at 0.5% q/q and 2.4% yr/yr

a muted response can be expectated from the aussie....bias still to the topside imho

Melbourne Qindex 00:31 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment  . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dallas GEP 00:29 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
qf, the MOF will come in but tactics on his part include bailing out at times on a previous level of defense and THEN rentering at a lower level. The purpose is create a FALSE break encouraging additional shorters to enter possies and then in effect gobbling up those shorter's stops with their bids so that the volume of shorters are reduced and thus the shorting trend is at least temprarily stymied. Once a line of supposed defense is established, you usually can depend on non-BOJ bids as well. If USD makes a rebound, that as well of course will long USD/JPY. Eur/JPY and GBP/JPY have to be factored in as well.

Eilat Dolphin 00:22 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ I know a few Hungarian ladies around whose MAIN mind color is blondNcute, and the $/Y will not hit the twenties, to night at least.

Brisbane L 00:22 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP so is my grandfather from Budapest.

Pecs Andras 00:19 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 00:09 GMT January 28, 2004
Really?
Samll world. We Hungarians are all around this planet :-)

Nassau QF (newb) 00:15 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
I really hope we don't see 105.20 GEP

Ldn 00:10 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Australian index of job vacancies for skilled workers in Australia fell 0.8% in January from December

Melbourne Qindex 00:10 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : the market rhythm of 0.00153 is used in the daily cycle projection. See details in my page if the market is trading outside the range of 1.2585 - 1.2661.

Dallas GEP 00:09 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
Andra, my mother is full blooded Hungarian. They are two colors in her mind. Black and White. They are no grays. You are also either right or you are wrong LOL

ON the currency side, I think we will see at least 105.20 print tonight on usd/JPY.

Melbourne Qindex 00:05 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD (adjusted) : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels


... 1.2585 // 1.2600, 1.2615, 1.2631, 1.2646 // 1.2661 ...

Los Angeles erik 00:01 GMT January 28, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 23:52
fosusing more now on using macd and some general programming of systems. but going good.

good trades