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Forex Forum Archive for 10/04/2004

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Prague JV 23:58 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
you wellcom AG , thanks.

CAIRO AG 23:29 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
JV// Interesting article... thanks

Prague JV 23:14 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Oil price key to all mythologies
By Alan Kohler
October 5, 2004


The bond market thinks interest rates are coming down and a few economists agree (more disagree, however, but they are starting to get edgy). At the very least, rate rises are off the agenda for a while.

But hang on a minute - the Australian property market has not crashed, despite all the warnings. If anything, it's bouncing. Buyers are back; lending data is strong; some suburbs are quite hot again. At worst, the overall market has plateaued after a correction of 5 to 10 per cent in the first half of this year.

One major bank told me yesterday that, according to loan applications coming through, values in many areas have returned to where they were before the correction began last November.

CBA's chief financial officer, Michael Cameron, told the Merrill Lynch conference in New York last week that his bank had seen a 1.6 per cent decline in Australian property values the past six months, which hardly deserves the name "correction" at all.

How ironic if the bond market bears are right and that, having wrung its hands for two years about the property bubble, putting up rates four times during that time mainly to cool it down, the Reserve Bank has to turn around and cut rates just as real estate values rise again.

But property investors who are salivating over this prospect should dry their mouths: if the next move for Australian interest rates were actually down, the property market would be in far more trouble than if rates kept rising.

That's because property values and loan defaults are a lot more vulnerable to unemployment and falling small business incomes than to interest rates.

At this stage the RBA still believes the next move in rates is up: if not in December, then next year.

It would be a very big call to change its mind and cut, especially with US rates rising, and it would only do so if business conditions collapsed and unemployment suddenly began to rise, which would be very bad news indeed for property - and for lenders for that matter.

Right now it is hard to see why that would happen. The only possibility - aside from prime minister Mark Latham doing something very stupid with wages policy, like handing control of it to the left wing of the construction union - is for a major reversal of the US economy.

Bears like Steve Roach of Morgan Stanley have been calling that for a while now because of the US's worrying external and internal imbalances (high current account deficit, high household debt, high budget deficit), but the most immediate threat is oil.

Already $US50 a barrel oil has produced an apparent flat spot in the US economy, which is the primary cause of the yield curve inversion in Australia (long bond yields lower than cash rates) and the downtrend in US bond yields (aside from the reversal from 3.9 to 4.2 per cent in the past two weeks).

But note that the Group of Seven meeting in Washington over the weekend was reduced to the rather pathetic role of lobby group for oil-dependant western nations calling on oil producers to increase output - like Oliver Twist asking for more. The only other thing they did - even more pathetic in some ways - was to harrumph about China's exchange rate peg, as if that is the main cause of America's external deficit. They invited China to dinner on Friday, which was all very jolly, but there is no prospect of the value of yuan being raised in the near term.

Anyway, it's all about oil. If you think there is a fundamental demand/supply imbalance and the price is heading towards $US100 a barrel, sell your investment properties. Sell your shares, too, while you're at it, and any bonds yielding less than cash.

If you think the oil shortage is temporary and the hedge funds are going to quit the oil futures markets so that the price returns to $US30, then you're probably right to think that property represents at least as good buying as a sharemarket at record high levels.

So, paradoxically, if interest rates rise once or twice more (and that's all) and more importantly are not cut, then the 5 or 10 per cent correction in property values we have seen so far this year might be the full extent of Australia's much-predicted property crash. That would be amazing.

Bubbles burst; so, if it doesn't burst, it wasn't a bubble

usa 23:05 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
everyone else have the spike in the EUR/USD and EUR/AUD???

usa 22:46 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
congratulations! too bad your on the wrong side of the dollar now... just kidding... in my opinion thats a good entry...I'm long Aussie

San Francisco gth 22:44 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Hello, i just placed my first forex order ever...I'm so happy that I just had to tell someone...i'm short the USD and long the CHF.

CAIRO AG 22:31 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
BEST TRADE NOW, in terms of risk ratio is to LONG NZD$ HERE at 0.6677 BID with 15 pips stop and i even say if the stop is touched than reverse target 0.6562.....

GL & GT

hk mom 22:14 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
buy MORE euros.. the 1.2280 and 1.2265 entries are in profit now.

San Francisco 22:06 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Trade in your neighborhood.....................

Global-View 22:03 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   

We will be conducting our bi-weekly forex survey tomorrow and are looking for new participants If you are a 'rerasonably" experienced trader and would like to participate, send us an EMAIL

Dallas MD 21:48 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Any Views on Cable? TIA Mauricio

Syd 21:30 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Sydney ge11ja I think your corrrect.

Sydney ge11ja 21:25 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Syd 21:12 GMT October 4, 2004

I think they meet today but decision not announced until tomorrow at 23:30 gmt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 21:24 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
I hope everyone had a good day today. The eur/usd pair has bounced short of the key support leaving the main support untested. T/L’s are as follow 2190-2200, 2040-50 and 2000-10. Retracement for now is 2300-2305, 2325-30, 2350-55 and 2370-75. Resistance is around 2300-10, 2330-40 and 2370-80 for now. We are still in the bullish channel until the main support and T/Ls are taken out for this pair. Intraday signals are in O/S area and mid term signals are turning bearish. Long-term signals are bullish at this time. I we were in a normal trend I would say buy on dips but we are in range trading and must be treated accordingly IMHO. GL GT

Syd 21:23 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
RBA 23:30 GMT

Pecs Andras 21:16 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Syd 21:12 GMT October 4, 2004
What is the GMT time for that?

Syd 21:12 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
RBA rate decision 9.30 AEST.Tuesday.

london 20:59 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
NEW YORK, Oct 4 (Reuters) - The dollar rallied broadly on Monday after a statement by the Group of Seven richest nations late Friday brought no surprises, allowing some optimism about U.S. economic prospects to bolster the currency.Attention was shifting to the big U.S. data event of the week, Friday's release of September's non-farm payrolls report, for a signal on the state of the labor market, one key indicator of the strength of the U.S. economy.With a chorus of Federal Reserve officials speaking this week, traders were also looking to Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan -- who is slated to speak on Tuesday and Thursday -- for his latest views on the economy and any clues on monetary policy.

Spotforex NY 20:55 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
www.kitco.com is a gold web site.

BRISBANE 20:38 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Any advice on where I can observe the price movements of GOLD relevant to the NY market?

london 20:35 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
There was a large 1.0500 option bought 2 weeks ago in euro and now that we have not gotten above 1.2450, some think it is possible for this 1.0500 to be in play.

This is on GV
http://www.global-view.com/beta/research/index.html?nid=1025

anyone have more information on the option

Roumeli anka 20:19 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Gold... series of 0.618 retracements

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=27006&u=contrarian&a=contrarian%5C%27s&id=497

van revdax 19:46 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Sydney EM 19:27 //It was all writen in stars.

Eilat Dolphin 19:35 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
KL/ 2 pips above your head and for a quarter of a second...

KL KL 19:29 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd from 1.7856 at 17834 +22 pips and eurusd at 1.2287 for a measley 2 pips gain.....next time don't sleep cos auto pilot did not trigger at 1.2255....anyone know what was the low for eurusd....anyway....looking to short again later

Sydney EM 19:27 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
A jump in the U.S. dollar Monday caused a long liquidation by fund and speculative players in the gold and silver markets, sent metals prices lower

Eilat Dolphin 19:24 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
usa/ MA I follow are 42, 52, 62 on 4H, 8 H, and Day only, but not on the $/Y. They usually give good support/resist/bouncing.
However I couple them with Trendies, each couple taylored for his "bad" habits.

Global-View 19:16 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   

If you are located in the NYC area and want to take a free basic forex course, let us know. One of our sponsors is hosting a free course in NYC on October 7. Contact [email protected]

ATL MA 19:16 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
usa -- I use moving averages, but not singly. They provide a good way of revealing bias sometimes...and you can trade them to but they'll eat you alive in a range. I like using 20/50 MA, i find them most consistent on yen pairs..pick a time frame...you can never be sure which time frame will do best on a certain day with a certain pair. I would suggest using MA's in concert with other indicators...at least that's what I do. Good luck.

ATL MA 19:13 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit -- You may be right...In my way of looking at the chart, this trendline is very important to the continuation of the uptrend in the near term...below that, I'm seeing 1.2210-20 being tough as well. The small bounce off of this t/l looks to me more like shorts squaring up rather than strong buying. In this type of situation, I like to watch and see where the big money is...I'm not seeing big buying interest here just yet...maybe it will emerge. Maybe closer to the 1.2200 level as you said will bring out some big guns. As a very general rule, when a channel is broken, the pair heads at least as low as the channel was high...in this case that would be about 200 pips, give or take...by that rule, a break of the channel line would point to a minimum downside target of about 1.2060 or so. I should say that your scenario vs. my scenario are both fairly valid, and right now it is difficult to determine either way. But I would say that a break of this strong line would probably mean that it would in turn become very strong resistance on the topside if broken...so a bounce out of the 10-20 area may be limited to current levels. That's why I see this channel line as being so significant. Good luck with your strategy...but you better watch out at 1.2500 because me and you will be in a fight:-) Lol.....good trades my friend

Ldn 19:11 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
GOLD: Drops $5.60 On US Dollar Surge

usa 18:54 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
does anyone use any moving average crosses to trade? If so, what is most consistent?

Athens 18:54 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Re my 15:43 and 15:54, no change of view, still favoring the USD downside vs. the three european majors. More encouraging if we get closings above 1.7850 on cable and below 1.2635 on $/CHF. No real problem with EUR/$ closing as long as it can finish above 1.2250 today. I am out, good trades.

USA Biscuit Boy 18:52 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
MA I think value will be found in buying eur/$ with a 1.22 handle and selling it near 1.26. Well that is my view at least. A daily close below 1.22 will tell me my view and the market view are not the same. This could occur if NFP comes in much better than expected (I am expecting a tad below consensus).

Rivonia PipPirate 18:51 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
jihad bombs ? ..........could only be Mosque_Quito

Eilat Dolphin 18:48 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Martin. I don't expect yet another full volta to the 1.20 level. At least before Friday if the figures show an above 222.222 jobs added. Till then, 1.2222 is a good floor, and tomorrow's steak should be taken out of the fire at 1.2320... (for a while) or be overdone.

ATL MA 18:45 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Final thought for the day on EURUSD......There are a few things that I usually bet on. I bet on some certain divergences, I bet on ranges, and I bet on strong trendlines. Toward the end of last week, you heard me betting on the range voicing my skepticism that EURUSD would break out of the range up top (especially without a clear reason to buy euro at those levels), and you may have seen me mention divergences suggesting just the type of move we saw today. Alas, the pair (with a quickness) is found flirting with a strong trendline coming in around 1.2255. As stated earlier, I'd square up if short and re-sell a bounce...or sell a good break of that line. I'm still slightly $ bullish, so I'm not buying the pair here. I'm just saying I wouldn't sell into that trendline at the curent price....one would have to risk too much putting a stop above 1.2350. So, I am respecting that trendline while also inclined to believe that the sharp correction is serving to validate the broad range after the rejection up top. There is good reason to believe that the range is still seen as being in great shape, and I would not doubt a test of the 1.2000-to 1.2100 area in the next couple of weeks. It depends on the trendline holding up. But looking at this range, I see no reason just yet why we would not see 1.2000 again....It's happened over and over again in recent months...no reason to think it won't happen again. Also of note, the dollar index rebounded today back above that 88 level. Aggressive short term traders may want to buy EURUSD around the 60-65 level for a run up to 1.2330-40. I've not been impressed with the bounce (if you can call it that) so far, so for me, it is a wait-and-see situation, and I'm waiting for rallies to sell the pair. GL and GT

BDQ 18:43 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
the dollar seems to have setteled. do you expect EUR/USD to slide below 12250

dc CB 18:30 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Revdax 18:03

seeing the meal for the evening made me glad I sold my JY calls that afternoon. keep those specials coming.

cheers

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 18:29 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
The €/$ chart:
We've had no earth shattering news, there's been no geopolitical rattleings, human jihad bombs (messy)etc., therefore I'm standing on the possibility that this whole $bull move (as I expected last week) is simply some juicy range trading on which to profit...likely a $-bull pen for $-bears on which to dine in the near future. My knife & fork are ready & I love $-bull beef: med.cut prime rib au jus.

gold coast martin 18:29 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 18:23 GMT October 4, 2004
Great antidote that 12270...good to see you feel better...more doses of that antidote are prescribed for the rest of the week....g/t

romania cristi 18:27 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
now it works.thanks,ma.

Livingston nh 18:26 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Gep, Flip - thanx

ATL MA 18:24 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
romania -- mine's working fine...may be your connection or your computer

Eilat Dolphin 18:23 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
West Nile fever down, headaches gone and, less important, pips-up!

romania cristi 18:22 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
could anyone tell me if f*x*c*m platform works,because i am not able to access it ?

Dublin Flip 18:21 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 17:14

Nobody whatsover expects a rate hike from the RBA on wednesday or are more likely if the election provided a surprise winner. Both side of politics have provided strong and weak currencies in their history and thankfully the one consistents across the broad spectrum of Australian politics is that markets set currency levels and an independent central bank is preffered. Labor in Australia has been much more au fait with market forces and centrist policies for twenty years now ( long before Tony Blair's New Labour revolution in the UK). The minor concern is that too much pork barrelling (primarily from the incumbents) may provide too much fiscal stimulus and may therefore need to be trimed with a monetary snug. That however is not an immediate concern. The biggest driver may well be the "relief factor" (that will be echoed in the US in a month) that the election has passed without a terrorist event.

NY Raider19 18:14 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
USDJPY //// That's right, on the morning of Oct 1st in Japan, which would be at 2350 GMT on Sep 30th...

NYC 18:10 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Raider. Tankan came out last week.

NY Raider19 18:06 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
USDJPY //// I would definitely have max size possie in USDJPY before the Tankan Report release...

van revdax 18:03 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
The following was posted on the special menu at the Global-view forex restaurant near the close on Sept 30
======================================
van revdax 18:53 GMT September 30, 2004
Today's Special(Sept 30)//Buy $/JY

Dallas GEP 17:48 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
As far as Aussie goes it 7220 doesn't hold to the upside which it COULD. I would think a 7237 short would be near ideal level

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 17:48 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
RIVER FALLS_USA// I refined my answer to you a bit: why some of us placed long possies @ 1.2280ish instead of waiting for the 1.2260-70 consolidation or below..I posted something you may find useful on Help Forum just now. Suggest all beginners take a look when you've time...maximizing profits, minimizing losses/risks with a "chart" I finaggled in html.

gold coast martin 17:44 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
LIVINGSTON...any entry over 7225 is good....target 7080...by end of week...g/t

Dallas GEP 17:44 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Chippie I still think 6860 will print today sometime today, We would have to see probably a euro in the 1.2240/50 area for that to happen which I expecy as well

Livingston nh 17:39 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin - thanx // looking for a short level - chart not ripe yet but aussie doesn't always wait

London Chippie 17:30 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP -euro/gbp..... looking at the hourly chart...the 60ema has crossed over the 60mva (my prefered tool for the job)....my sell signal ......however i feel theres room topside to .6950... i know you play this ccy ..... do you have any bias or view? TIA

gold coast martin 17:26 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 17:14 GMT October 4, 2004
recent economic data does not justify rate hike...RBA to stay put....not that it will make any difference to FX but liberals to win...Downside bias of aud to derive from mainly the end of the peak of commodity cycle{same fate awaits the kiwi}....g/t

Haifa ac 17:19 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
tel aviv ms 16:43 GMT October 4, 2004
GBP/USD -- Is it good to get in to long position ? //

Supine is better.

Dallas MD 17:15 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Lost Power in UP GEP. Back up & running. Still Short EUR/JPY @ 136.85, TGT 135.50 Stp BE.

Livingston nh 17:14 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Any thots about RBA or Aussie unemployment into Saturday's election? AUD bounced off 200 da mva last week but is a rate hike likely or a Labor victory

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:02 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Got to go play Drums...See You guys in 12 hours

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:58 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Not keeping more then NY close

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:53 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
as far as what I did this weekend..
Got this for cable
Mon Oct/04 5:00 PM 1.8276 1.7814
Tue Oct/05 5:00 PM 1.8273 1.7857
Wed Oct/06 5:00 PM 1.8300 1.7754
Thu Oct/07 5:00 PM 1.8368 1.7942
I just bought some cause I think there will be some bounce

RIVER FALLS_USA_ PB 16:51 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
I like the dynamic channel for both USD/CHF and EUR/USD in place since end of August on all timeframes - says short the USD with 20-30 pip reverse stops in case momentum continues in $ favor. I did it long in EURO at 65 and 70, short CHF at 75, 70.

tel aviv ms 16:43 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD -- Is it good to get in to long position ?
thanks

Sydney Alimin 16:40 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 16:31 GMT October 4, 2004

i am afraid they have to update it again tomorrow, it has been hard for them lately coz price movement is everywhere, what's bullish today can be easily turned around the next day, need to be very flexible in these situation

Antwerp Tom 16:36 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
will go long @ 1.2265 €/$ GL GT

Dallas GEP 16:34 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
OK, is it raining there now???

USA Biscuit Boy 16:34 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
AB I am waiting patiently to enter a short usd/jpy position at hi 111's for mid to hi 109's this week. What do you think on this pair? TIA

Plovdiv Gotin 16:33 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Yes, 2nd biggest town.

Dallas GEP 16:31 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
BTW Plovdiv is in Bulgaria, YES???

hk ab 16:31 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
It took less than 24 hrs to break the myths of J.P Chorek, Ellis, et al....
all the eur long levels broken cleanly. What's next?
Trade the timeframe rather than levels.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 16:31 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
about usd/chf I suggest to entry now, because seem the train (buy usd parade) will be begun now..

Plovdiv Gotin 16:26 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
And 1.2644 too.

Dallas GEP 16:21 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF long levels would be 1.2635 and 1,2610

Dallas GEP 16:19 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
K I thought you were talking about a downside NT which is OBVIOUSLY at risk now IMO. For those wishing to SHORT eruo....these are the levels to do it from 1.2280, 1.2300 and 1,2340

ATL MA 16:16 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Dallas...at about 1.2500...precisely, they are just a hair over at 1.2510. I got them cheap during the mad rally last week.

USA Biscuit Boy 16:16 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Hi SZ :)

Sorry Dallas meant MA's own eur/$ no touches not anything major in the market unless MA has some serious cash to defend them lol.

Dallas GEP 16:13 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
MA, exactly where are they???

ATL MA 16:12 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Biscut -- they are single no-touches...but yes they are looking mighty fine at the moment....impatiently waiting for Friday on those. GT

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 16:08 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Loss Angeles ss,
I think buying reaction of gbp/usd after touched 1.7815 have finished now (only get 1.7835). I think now is ready to entry the new stage at 1.7740-50..

OK SZ 16:07 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Good day all, Hi BB, Gep, and Atl (MA) good to read some nice professional posts here. appreciate it very much..GT, Gl all

Dallas GEP 16:04 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
What DNT's BB, they are not at these levels that I am aware of on EITHER euro of GBP

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 16:04 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
nyc nyc 15:53 GMT October 4, 2004
LOL..like Oil Man's cat.
my monkey said that he want to buy so many bananas after get profit when gbp/usd touch 1.7740-50..
I prefer follow that monkey..
Oil Man have a cat and I have a monkey..who else?

USA Biscuit Boy 16:01 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Cheers for the analysis Athens and ATL MA :) Those DNT's are looking good MA nice job!!

Sydney Alimin 15:58 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
ATL MA 15:55 GMT October 4, 2004

good analysis there, i second that

ATL MA 15:55 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD -- I've got the lower channel line coming in right now at about 1.2253 and rising, of course. I don't see this level going quietly into the night. It is possible, in fact likely, we will get a bounce from this channel line where I see 1.2330-45 offering good resistance on the topside. Would suggest squaring shorts on another approach of the 60 level and looking for a rally to re-establish fresh shorts above 1.23. One can always sell a good break of 1.2250 if a bounce doesn't happen. My opinion for what it's worth....GT

Athens 15:54 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Making a note of my weekly analysis re 21:20 GMT October 2), I maintain a bias on the USD downside and think that today's strong price moves offer better levels to sell the Dollar against the three european currencies. Good luck all.

nyc nyc 15:53 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
lol Raden, now that's some monkey, sounds like he has taken some lessons from Oil Man's cat. give him 3 bananas, you want to keep him happy.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:50 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 14:01 GMT October 4, 2004
LOL.. but my monkey said like my post to Loss Angeles ss.
he(my monkey) said that gbp/usd must exit when touch 1.7815.. and then I give him(my monkey) 2 bananas..

Los Angeles ss 15:47 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Raden Mas.

ATL MA 15:45 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
BDQ -- It's almost 12 EST...getting about time for the market to settle in for the day. I'm impressed the dollar is holding its gains to this point....I'll be more impressed if we're still at these levels at the close at 3 EST. At the moment it's looking likely. GT

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:45 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 15:30 GMT October 4, 2004
let it buying reaction of gbp/usd after touched 7815 be finished and then we can action selling again.
about eur/usd please hold your sell until meet 1.2240, 1.2219 if 1.2240 be broken and hold until 1.2182 if 1.2219 be broken too..

Athens 15:43 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
I had as key (but not critical) levels today for EUR/$ and cable 1.2250 and 1.7810-15 respectively. To be honest, I didn't expect much to see them given the opening levels on Sunday evening but they have come into play so I am posting them fwiw. Valid only for today.

BDQ 15:42 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Is USD losing steam or what?

Los Angeles ss 15:30 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas -- EurovsDollar?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:28 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
1.7815 have done.

RIVER FALLS_USA_ PB 15:26 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 15:20 GMT October 4, 2004
///thanks for the reply...understand filling the basket with ripening fruit - more interested in why those might have OPENED positions along that steep wall. Something triggered that decision - I would like to know what. Let's examine: out of channel, OB, stochstics off the meter - what? TIA again!

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 15:20 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
River Falls// in answer to your question: I for one only put in a portion of my planned -overall- long possie, as many of us do/did, safe bet here actually..waiting like everyone else to place other bets at likely end resistance(s) for the rest of the total overall long bet to later mature. I "layer" as many do..following the line down at likely resistances (dips) like pearls on a string, then plop the biggie down when it's done travelling and shown to me sufficiently it's REALLY moving up. That way I'm safe no matter what, making $$ no matter what.

hk mom 15:13 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
jk, good evening.
You can get a better picture if you can check the ARCHIVE carefully before you bark.

GOES B747 15:11 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Alimin,

the winning JOKER of US elections is ready to board C-130 somewhere in Afghpakistan; Curry (John Kerry) Ketchup barks too much with terror, so junior will bring him OBL.

gt

RIVER FALLS_USA_ PB 15:06 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
In hindsight, why did so many of you guys try to fade the USD strength before the London fix when all momentum indicators pushed the envelope and the VIX was so high? TIA

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 15:04 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Not now Tallin vies...let it settle first. Keep thinking short, wouldn't be surprized to see 1.21XX by Friday's NY open. That 1 year chart support line from 11/7/03 speaks. I will layer all the way down to hit 1.2100, then 99.9% sure THEN it's time to put in rest of long bet.

Sydney Alimin 15:00 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 14:45 GMT October 4, 2004

ya, i agree with you that euro has fallen a lot by its standard today...but i am not really surprised by this move coz after that big drop on cable last friday, euro will follow in a big way too if it happens as i mentioned on friday..that's just based purely on my observation

hope you will make more money, you have been doing well with yen pairs

GOES B747 14:58 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Alimin, you are a market maker !!!


gt

BDQ 14:56 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF 1.2672

Tallinn viies 14:54 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
this is the area to buy euros intraday.1,2260/65 looks really cheap at this point....
thnks all

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 14:53 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
London Chippie 14:38 GMT October 4, 2004
If the €/$ fall persists as it hints, has relation to 1day 1 year chart: Draw support line frm 11/7/03 to 8/27/04 to edge of chart. It -could- dip to 1.2100 & soon, & be perfectly within range. Then I buy more € reinforcing long opened minutes ago @ 1.2280. Also Chip, draw resistance line: 1/9/04 to recent high around 9/30/04. The triangle points to Christmas/New Year's Day indicating a "trend change" then. Some say sooner depending on where they draw the lines.

Dallas GEP 14:52 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
BDQ, if you can hold a potential 40 pips stop loss YES it is OK OPPS!!! USD bulls breaking now

nyc jk 14:50 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
hk mom 10:26 GMT October 4, 2004
By the way it is time to exit all aud longs now. Exited at 0.7222 for all positions.

you ran a 350 pip loss on your .7220 long to make a 2 pip gain. now there is risk/reward at its finest.

SanFrancisco TG 14:49 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
BDQ - re:usdchf .. i'm not buying here right now, maybe later, not right now.

BDQ 14:46 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
is it ok to but USD/CHF at 1.2650 level

GOES B747 14:45 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Alimin,

your call about EUR/USD @ 1.2240 is OK, but I think the move will happen only after US session close as it will represent fall of 170pips from Friday's close.

fwiw EUR/USD,
/// 1.1980 ... 1.2020 ... 1.2060 ... 1.2100... 1.2140 ... 1.2180 ... 1.2220 ... 1.2260 ... 1.2300 ... 1.2340 .... 1.2380 ... 1.2420 ... 1.2460 ... 1.2500 ... 1.2540 ///

current move is down so it means; 4 frames down and 2 max. up... for very short term (2-3 days) it means range of 1.2180-1.2340...good luck Alimin.

gt all

USA Biscuit Boy 14:42 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Chippie I would find it hard to believe eur/$ can make it thru 1.2215/40 area without any hard economic data backing up the move. However if it does and we close below 1.22 on a daily basis all my bets are off on my long eur/$ position.

Dallas GEP 14:42 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF great long from 1.2635 IMO IF SEEN 30 pip stop 1.2750 traget

Dallas GEP 14:41 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
FWIW, euro seems much heavier than GBP at this time.

BDQ 14:41 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF opinion

gold coast martin 14:41 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
...urrencies in this downward momento....g/t

gold coast martin 14:40 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Good evening...pay paricular attention to the kiwi....will shed a lot more than other commodity cu

Haifa ac 14:39 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
hk mom 14:07 GMT October 4, 2004
BUY more euros! No more chance left, buy more at 1.2286.// Where is your stop, if you have any?!

London Chippie 14:38 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Dealers note heavy UK clearer selling of EUR/USD taking the pair through the
1.2280 level but much of the selling was absorbed by Asian and supra-national
central banks. More stops are rumored below the 1.2260 level which would likely
put the 1.2235/40 area back in play....IFR...just to add to prev statement.......will the downward pressure be sustainable???

GOES B747 14:37 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 14:29 GMT October 4, 2004

took profits and gave already 66% of the profit with some bad trades today; re-established USD/JPY short @ 111.15 and will play for 25/30pips only.

do not feel the market at the moment; it is small money making big moves sceneraio.

gt

lahore eur/usd 14:35 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 14:25 GMT October 4, 2004 ///////thanks u looking right.

mission Viejo fxtrader4u 14:33 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
stop 1.2310

MIssion Viejo Fxtrader4u 14:32 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Stop on eur/usd from 1.2345 lower to 1.2710 for 1.2240 target

see original post in asia session

Sydney Alimin 14:29 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 14:27 GMT October 4, 2004

i stay away from yen pairs at the moment, are you still holding your short?

GOES B747 14:27 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 14:25 GMT October 4, 2004

what is your biew about USD/JPY?

gt

Sydney Alimin 14:25 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
euro still looks heavy, but if there is any followthru selling action, it has to happen now targetting 1.2240, or else i fancy a bounce to 1.2310/20-1.2340/50 level

ATL MA 14:22 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Lahore....looks to me like 1.2250 may get tested

lahore eur/usd 14:19 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
hi any one .can eur/usd hold 1'2275

hk ab 14:14 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
It looks like yen crosses start unwinding today....at least till Fri.

houston st 14:10 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   

you're not up on yahoo....

ny amc 14:09 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Houston..ST. Hit me up on yahoo

Los Angeles ss 14:07 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas -- Your thoughts on EurovsDollar at these levels?

London chris 14:07 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
The euro/usd is trickling down. I am making mega bucks thanks to my broker who has provided me with the best solution plus I get excellent trade signals for a month just to get me started. Big it up to mike, lee, nic, jones, etc.

you can contact this person on username: frbroker at yahoo dot com

hk mom 14:07 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
BUY more euros! No more chance left, buy more at 1.2286.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 14:03 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Checking 1 day 1 yr €/$ candle chart, if you draw a support line connecting supports at dialy NY closes of 8/27, 9/3, & 9/15, your line will hit exactly where USD is now, indicating I should (chartist's view) close my €/$ short @ 1.2420 WHICH I AM doing as I write & longing the pair immediately. FWIW. If I jumped the gun & the pair shorts yet more I'll be patient & simply catch the chart on the rebound back up to 1.24 and beyond, realizing we're still range trading & hence the risk. But likely realizing a nice €/$ long (position trade) from here.

GOES B747 14:02 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
time for EUR bulls to smile 50-60ride is knocking on the door.

gt

nyc jk 14:01 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
UK JB - great trade on the CAD mate!

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:56 GMT October 4, 2004

why don't you give him your seat at the keyboard, see how he fares at currency trading.

USA Biscuit Boy 13:59 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Hi amc....my website hasn't been updated testing a few new bells and whistles first. My pre-G7 histeria valuation of eur/$ was 1.2280 which I was expecting on Friday.......so I am buying some here looking for a good test of 1.2450 later in the week.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:56 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
moon land afraid of america 06:43 GMT October 4, 2004
hey..I have get monkey.what should I do now with this object? LOL

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:55 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 13:33 GMT October 4, 2004
It is the world that has been pulled in front of our eyes to fool us (The Matrix).

USA Biscuit Boy 13:46 GMT October 4, 2004
Don’t be a stranger hope you are doing well. GT

ATL MA 13:43 GMT October 4, 2004
De nada

ny amc 13:52 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit...............what is your website address and have you been updating it

USA Biscuit Boy 13:46 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Taking profit on eur/$ short position from 1.2433 and entering long position at 1.2291.

London Joe 13:44 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B.

Can i ask Jay for your e-mail please ??

ATL MA 13:43 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Miami -- Gracias

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 13:42 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Outstanding post GEP, thanks buddy. I too think the shock wave is over for the moment...still holding short tho..don't wanna get caught on the wrong side. What think?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:42 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
hong bong 08:02 GMT October 4, 2004
sorry.. can not explain more about that, just follow or not.
please matching with your own indicator.you will get so many idea.
btw..I am happy if you have sold gbp from 1.7950..
remember about so many post blamed melast week..make me lazy to explain,but today we got the answer about that.
btw..I feel happy about you..

Global-View 13:42 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Chippee, from GVI earlier:

Tor Pumpkin 13:11 GMT October 4, 2004
BIS on bid at 80 in eurusd, i'm told.

Glasgow Geo 13:08 GMT October 4, 2004
talk bis at 80 eur$

London Chippie 13:37 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Boston, October 4: One of the
central banks that was a sizeable seller on rallies last week in the 1.2330 area
is now on the bid buying back EUR/USD in the 1.2280/85 area, dealers report.....IFR

Dallas GEP 13:35 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Price action is NOT giving us any hard BOUNCES. Dollar bears have been selling enough dollars to slow down dollar bull run but their volume (dollar bear) is not sufficient at THIS time to turn back rally. That USUALLY means a continuation of the usd bull run IF NEW possies are intiated to the usd side. If NOT then possible we may have a short period of consolidation. THEN EXISITING usd bulls may decide either to hold for further gains or square out.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 13:33 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Trying to quell my exhuberance/elation, I can see on the 1 year chart (drawing support lines) where my €/$short @ 1.2420 COULD super short to 1.2220. I'm holding on to it carefully. 1.2220 if hit IMHO would signify the breakout.

wisconsin tim 05:34 GMT October 4, 2004// RIGHT ON!. As I said, the only way to crush the oil strangle is to simply develop electric everything..ultimately charging up with solar, wind, ocean swell or hydroelectric and the gov could subsidise/aid these techs with grants until they get off the ground instead of sinking trillions into the war machine.
Omil// You scored a bullseye...big oil historically purchased patents for 100mpg carbs, water injectors, super-super chargers which use other gases & water mist & other gizmos which would make the automotive industry practically run on fumes alone let alone affordable kick butt electric cars with the new electrolytic capacitor storage tech (look Ma, no batteries). You are correct in believing oil quells existing technological advances...buying the patents from poverty stricken inventors after a quick buck. Bustards.

News events left to go:
USD Factory Orders (AUG) 14:00 es:0.10% prev:1.30%
USD US Fed Poole speak: Lincoln University 14:30
USD US Fed Bies speak: international fin risks 15:00
USD US Fed Bies speak: risk management 15:00
USD US Fed Gramlich speak: predatory lending 16:00
USD US economist Klein speak: NABE meeting 16:30

ny amc 13:33 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
UK.... nice call on the usdcad. i was thinking the same and joined you but sold out entire position at 1.2725. oh well. gt.

U.K. J.B. 13:29 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 07:43 GMT October 4, 2004
U.K. J.B. 21:15 GMT October 3, 2004
Medium term trade

Bought funds at 1.2630 tar. 1.3050 s/l 1.2550 Looking at monthly,weekly etc charts, show we are deeply oversold at current level not reached these levels for some time, recent IMM report showing record long positions, just feel the positive factor all priced in . Good r/r trade for me. Good night

Sold out 50 % at 1.2742 bring stop up to entry level run balance.

Calabash TarHeel 13:27 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 13:20 GMT October 4, 2004
Fwiw: I am looking for 1.2280 eur/usd and .7180 aud/usd to give way soon. Just My 2 Pennies Worth & Imvho.
Happy Trades

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:26 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
ATL MA 13:22 GMT October 4, 2004
Good call on Friday for the eur/usd and very well explained. GL GT

ATL MA 13:22 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Sydney...very good point...I'm watching that too...not convinced yet, but watching it. GT

Sydney Alimin 13:20 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
dollar index just regain 88.50 levl again (88.60 now) i would wait to the close of it today, this could be some serious dollar rally

Dallas GEP 13:20 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
It is quite possible that any bad US data will be used as an opportunity to BUY more dollars so contra trades IMO have a higher degree of risk than normal.

QC WC 13:18 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, are you still bearish Usd/Yen?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:13 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 11:58 GMT October 4, 2004
I am sorry I see why you were confused I put in the wrong numbers I meant to say 1.7880 and 1.7840. Now both objectives reached on eur/usd and gbp/usd. As stated before intraday indicators are in O/S area for both pairs and a bounce from here is imminent I will be back later with resistance and retracement numbers for the next day. GL GT
Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:35 GMT October 4, 2004
FWIW 1hr chart indicators for eur/usd and gbp/usd have reached the O/S area and bouncing off the support with 4hr chart indicators still drilling a bit deeper in the correction for both of these pairs. Objective done for cable at (1.7980=7880) now looking for (1.7940=7840) to conclude the journey for now and for eur/usd 1.2300 was printed and now awaiting 1.2280 to conclude that journey as well. GL GT

ATL MA 13:12 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD......Just a "heads-up" here for eurusd traders....keep a close eye on eurjpy nearing 136.25...very significant level short term...a break below there could drag eurusd further...we're at important short term levels here on both pair. I was thinking we would probably get a bounce off of these levels, but both pairs look awful heavy to me right now. GT

Dallas GEP 13:08 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
NOPE I posted earlier that I stopped out on usd/cad shorts @ -20 pips. That was the only dollar bullish possie I took and if it broke out of 1.2660/65 area I thought it might long which it certainly did.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:02 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Aus/Yen shorted at MKT..
covering around 1.76

Dallas GEP 13:01 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
closed AUSSIE shorts from 7237 here @ 7205. Very possible tho that AUSSIE could break down further to 7170 but wanted to bank the pips. Closed SOME more eur/gbp shorts and still have some open, 6860 target

KL KL 13:00 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
sold gbpusd 1.7856...sl 20 above....don't like the way it looks....trend is down is fact...gl gt

KL KL 12:57 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
sold eurusd 1.2289..sl 15 above looking for below 122.5....c'mon eur bull prove me wrong this time

ATL MA 12:53 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
woah...ugly, ugly, ugly pullback...Anyone out there still wanting to talk about the dollar "crisis"? Looking at eurusd, my pair, I think this current 80 level is key for short term, I break back below here would tell me that the range is still holding. A break of 12250 on the downside would make me positive that the range is holding near term. GL and GT everbody...hope everybody took those profits on Friday.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:30 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Mon Oct/04 5:00 PM 202.2324 194.0691
Tue Oct/05 5:00 PM 202.9668 196.4482
Wed Oct/06 5:00 PM 206.0040 196.2541
Thu Oct/07 5:00 PM 207.2399 198.5274
Fri Oct/08 5:00 PM 205.5266 196.0551
In general buying at Next day's Low...generally means U get some pips

GOES B747 12:29 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q,

are you suggesting EUR/USD will have daily range of 200pips today?


gt

Melbourne Qindex 12:18 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The chance is less than 30% for the market to trade above 1.2390 at 22.00GMT.

Melbourne Qindex 05:14 GMT October 3, 2004
EUR/USD : On Monday my daily cycle indicates that the market is likely to trade between 1.2390 - 1.2439 initially. The pattern of my daily cycle charts indicate that it is unstable and it has a good potential to break through either the lower or upper barrier. The odds are bias on the lower end to tackle 1.2316.


... 1.2316 ... ... 1.2365 // 1.2390 - 1.2415 - 1.2439 // 1.2464 ... 1.2538 ...

Congested barriers of my 44-day cycle are located at 1.2337 and 1.2491.

Melbourne Qindex 01:57 GMT October 4, 2004
EUR/USD : The market is now trying to penetrate through the daily cycle lower barrier.

Melbourne Qindex 01:56 GMT October 4, 2004
EUR/USD : Speculative selling will increase when the market is trading below 1.2357


Good night and good trades to all of you.

lisbon bb 12:18 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Any body have an idea why USD strength agains EUR..IS IT due to weak E-12 retail sales data realeses earlier?

Geneva Hedge 12:14 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
U.K.J.B.

If you are around you are quality- just finished reading your posts, again you don't seem to get any credit for your input, but it certainly does not go unnoticed here...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:12 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Mon Oct/04 12:00 AM 10,256.4454 9,749.9730
Tue Oct/05 12:00 AM 10,268.3398 9,772.0967
Wed Oct/06 12:00 AM 10,240.6667 9,783.0889
Thu Oct/07 12:00 AM 10,303.1334 9,931.4320
Fri Oct/08 12:00 AM 10,348.6256 10,050.7382

Dow amigos

GOES B747 12:09 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
fwiw,
Santomero talking is important as he does not votes regarding FED rates this year, muoth has weaker brakes.

he is talking for the last 10mins.

gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:08 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Let me if want another insrumnet
even stocks (anywhere)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:05 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
for our aussie mini friends
Mon Oct/04 5:00 PM 0.7443 0.7166
Tue Oct/05 5:00 PM 0.7448 0.7075
Wed Oct/06 5:00 PM 0.7323 0.7032
Thu Oct/07 5:00 PM 0.7372 0.7005
Fri Oct/08 5:00 PM 0.7318 0.6929

dc CB 12:05 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
(sorry please read last) Some sharks will have political stripes.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:04 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
chf for mini dudes
Mon Oct/04 5:00 PM 1.2583 1.2266
Tue Oct/05 5:00 PM 1.2660 1.2261
Wed Oct/06 5:00 PM 1.2687 1.2483
Thu Oct/07 5:00 PM 1.2682 1.2457
Fri Oct/08 5:00 PM 1.2782 1.2393

GOES B747 12:02 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
lnd 11:46 GMT October 4, 2004

range is too tight at the moment, breaks out daily 40/50 pips ranges not seen for the moment.

gt

Haifa ac 12:02 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 11:32 GMT October 4, 2004
..."I am so tried of playing breakouts and getting a black eye...."

Lots of Turtles are selling that fabulous secret for peanuts because the market started to give them such black eyes. This is the nature of the beast. Once too many people follow a given rule--the sobs change the lock.
Things are only going to get worse as far as commone indicators go. Look at the VIX--close to 10!!!! and market is flying.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:02 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
for those that have mini accounts
Use these for euro
Mon Oct/04 5:00 PM 1.2626 1.2292
Tue Oct/05 5:00 PM 1.2630 1.2245
Wed Oct/06 5:00 PM 1.2432 1.2228
Thu Oct/07 5:00 PM 1.2437 1.2223
Fri Oct/08 5:00 PM 1.2506 1.2131

dc CB 12:02 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
With a Vice Pres debate in the US tues evening and a Pres debate - on the economy - this friday, consider the political implications on US stocks, dollar and interest rate trading this week. Plus there is a 3 day weekend coming up here - Columbus day. Could be a wipsaw week -- but I don't see the dollar crashing thru 87 on the USD index this week. The sharks will political stripes. IMHO

SanFrancisco TG 12:02 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
BDQ - We projected 2280 as a potential bounce area. If it does not hold then 2240 begins to run into turbulence as well. If we get the bounce look for an approach toward 2350 and decide to hold or cut there. Watch the AUD level I posted below for added perception. This is an area here where you could salvage something, but be prepared that it may not provide what I hope for you.

You could also consider taking euro longs from here in another pair to offset if it looks clear this area will hold. GL

Melbourne Qindex 12:01 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 12:07 GMT September 30, 2004
EUR/USD : My current 44-day cycle indicates that projected barriers are located at 1.2415, 1.2425 and 1.2444.

lisbon bb 12:01 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
BDQ you dont hear me ...1 hour ago I post several posts especially to you but no attention from u??

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:00 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
if You generally want to be around 80% sure for cable use these
Mon Oct/04 5:00 PM 1.8241 1.7767
Tue Oct/05 5:00 PM 1.8251 1.7816
Wed Oct/06 5:00 PM 1.8296 1.7798
Thu Oct/07 5:00 PM 1.8322 1.7906
Fri Oct/08 5:00 PM 1.8272 1.7822

KL KL 11:58 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL, the gold scenerio is bothering me big time...have a look at how much it has fallen...

GOES B747 11:56 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
adding EUR/USD longs and USD/CHF shorts.

gt

BDQ 11:51 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
i just started trading recently and was never at a loss, but this EUR/USD thing has made everything negative for me.

should i hold on to it or just sell and minimize my loss

Livingston nh 11:51 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/Chf bidding to break thru the MA congestion level where it was rejected last week (the Eur/chf lvl of 1.5520 break will see EUR follow) - EUR is following the pattern from the first two Fed hikes - 1.2225 (the low following the hike) is the target // the US bond rally of Q3 is over and the pattern should look like Q2 - as in Q2 the USD should rally for a bit on the bond reversal

Sydney Alimin 11:51 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP: good call on eur/gbp mate, many profit returns to you! :)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:49 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 11:41 GMT October 4, 2004
This is range trading so for the time being it is sell from the top of the range and buy from bottom of the range. Range for eur/usd is 1.2000-2450 and 1.7707-1.8080 for gbp/usd IMHO.

Eur/usd is still in a bullish channel and the key support (1.2240) and main support (1.2200) will have to be taken out to kill the bullish rally that started in the beginning of September in the meantime like I said before we are still in the dreaded range and positions will have to be played in that style IMHO. GL GT

lnd 11:46 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 11:41 GMT. why not simply buy euro/chf and make life simple?

Sydney Alimin 11:44 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
phew, only few hours ago i was asking about reasons why euro shouldn't go up any further and it has gone down 100+ pips since then....this is all confusing now....below 1.2280 we are back to the big notorious summer range

GOES B747 11:43 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
buy EUR/JPY @ 136.55 /// s/l @ 136.40
for 20/25 pips, to cover the previous taken losing trades

gt

GOES B747 11:41 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
buy EUR/USD @ 1.2295 /// s/l @ 1.2280
sell USD/CHF @ 1.2620 /// s/l @ 1.2635

larger trades to cover previous breaks.

gt

KL KL 11:41 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL , are you selling rally or buy dips?? tia both gbpusd and eurusd...tia. I am getting confuse now!!

Gen dk 11:39 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:38 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
SPOT you are not the only one being burned by these false breakouts and no follow thru summer we have and it seems like it does not want to go away. Hope you have a good week. GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:35 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
FWIW 1hr chart indicators for eur/usd and gbp/usd have reached the O/S area and bouncing off the support with 4hr chart indicators still drilling a bit deeper in the correction for both of these pairs. Objective done for cable at 1.7980 now looking for 1.7940 to conclude the journey for now and for eur/usd 1.2300 was printed and now awaiting 1.2280 to conclude that journey as well. GL GT

SanFrancisco TG 11:34 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
AUD 7180 is more important to me right now than 7200 as a potential stall for the bears. So I my feeling is to be careful of taking little dips under the figure if you're not already short from at least 7220. Let 7180 resolve if you're late to the party.

Newport SP 11:33 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Mission Viejo, you are not far from me. Are you active in the FX trading market?

Spotforex NY 11:32 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
my euro breakout at 1.2360 last week is now joining that BBQ fest.

I am so tried of playing breakouts and getting a black eye....


spot

KL KL 11:17 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
BDQ if it makes you feel better I have covered my eurusd at 1.2310 for +30 pips and gbpusd at 1.7890 for +10 pips....not meant to make you feel bad but to tell you I think they may be going up in the hour...I play hit & run. However If I were you I would look to put a stop loss next time...now it seems to be going up but I think eur max is 1.2345 and gbpusd 1.7940...so try to cover half near there and fight another day. US session could be a bull run for USD due to potential good data and gold!!gl gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:14 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Aussie/Yen Might be a good sell here...if Hold for two days

mission Viejo fxtrader4u 11:14 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
closed original euro short from 1.2380 at 1,2360 and resold at 1.2345, stop at break-even for a target of 1.2240

original trade recommendations where posted in asia session today
all trades were profitable

EU ZORRO 11:13 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Morning all...

....IMO...1,2180/1,2200 will be a Zorro Zone....

Dallas GEP 11:12 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Euro might long back up to 2330 to allow chance for longers to get out but IMO euro might see 1.2240. eur/gbp is shorting fairly hard at this time. My usd/cad short stopped out at =20.

BDQ 11:07 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD 1.2304

BDQ 11:05 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
what should be the strategy for EUR/USD?

i bought at 1.2356 & 1.2334

GOES B747 11:04 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
sell USD/CHF @ 1.2590 with s/l @ 1.2610 & t/p @ 1.2540
buy EUR/USD @ 1.2318 with s/l @ 1.2305 & t/p @ 1.2365

gt

Syd 11:01 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Any view on the low expected to be achieved on Aud today 7140? or lower - Martin any view on it

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:00 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
It's a sell? Maybe for the longer wave...
I am Buying Cable only around US Open

OPO MW 10:56 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Any idea why cable keeps coming down?

Melbourne Qindex 10:55 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Use the weekly cycle charts for reference.

BDQ 10:55 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD going 1.23 way

BDQ 10:54 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
BDQ into BBQ hope not

BDQ 10:53 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
thought EUR/USD was would be around 1.24

London 10:51 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
BDQ will soon become BBQ

KL KL 10:51 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
sOLD GBPUSD 1.790...sl 20 above...not sure why...just general weakness also sold eur at 1.2340...maybe have room to go down more than gbpusd

BDQ 10:48 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
did stupid mistake sold USD/CHF & bought EUR/USD

BDQ 10:47 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Usd 1.2323!

BDQ 10:46 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
i bought EUR/UDS at 1.2356 & 1.2334

BDQ 10:43 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD 1.2335

u were spot on baharin. when do you expect the Eur to rise

hk mom 10:42 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
I have bought euro at 1.2345 and 1.2340 respectively.

BDQ 10:36 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
so u think that USD will continue to rise

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:34 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Maybe at 1.2330

BDQ 10:33 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
EURO/USD 1.2555

will it go to 1.2565 level

Syd 10:33 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Sex toy causes air security scare
Authorities in a regional Australian airport shut down services for an hour on Monday after a vibrating sex toy was mistaken for a bomb. "It was rather disconcerting when the rubbish bin started humming furiously," she said, Australian media reported

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:30 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Mama..
the local high for that trade I think is...sometimes there
Mon Oct/04 8:20 AM 1.2389 1.2371 1.2379 1.2361
Mon Oct/04 8:25 AM 1.2392 1.2374 1.2383 1.2365
Mon Oct/04 8:30 AM 1.2391 1.2373 1.2376 1.2358

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:28 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Mama..
I like the way U trade

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:27 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Mon Oct/04 6:30 AM 1.2378 1.2360 1.2346 1.2328
Mon Oct/04 6:35 AM 1.2385 1.2367 1.2343 1.2325

That's right there is a local low there for euro

hk mom 10:26 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
By the way it is time to exit all aud longs now. Exited at 0.7222 for all positions.

hk mom 10:21 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
I will long euro again at 1.2345.

BDQ 10:21 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
do u mean i should buy EUR/USD at 1.2357/8 range

lisbon bb 10:19 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
BDQ just listen to me if you dont want your money lost..It is a simple advice.OK

cebu mgs 10:17 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
good day traders.... usd rising...

Melbourne Qindex 10:17 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Makati Obelix 10:12 GMT - No change in my view. The daily cycle will cover the next Asian session.

BDQ 10:15 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
should buy EUR/USD at 1.2357/8

london 10:14 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: Half A Yard Expiry Weighs, 1.2380 Offers Sizable

lisbon bb 10:14 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD short term downtrend is it result from good E-12 Retail sale???

BDQ 10:12 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD opinion

Makati Obelix 10:12 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q, your view on AUD to go towards the lower barrier still hold?

lisbon bb 10:11 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
newbies always folllow their trade tick by tick..Good trading plan with right stop loss and profit target reduce tensions..and dont forget money management .Always consider that trade will loss and if loss what aill account be..Risk/Reward ratio also is important

Dallas MD 10:11 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Good Day Traders.

BDQ 10:10 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD 1.2363

BDQ 10:05 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
USD rising

BDQ 10:04 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF now 1.2550

mission Viejo fxtrader4u 10:02 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Do Not Sell USD at the moment or you will loose,

QC WC 09:57 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 02:26 GMT October 4, 2004

Are you still short Usd/Cad?

BDQ 09:56 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
sold USD/CHF 1.2544

Gen dk 09:55 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GOES B747 09:49 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
'sweepers' will be day off on Thursday; their bosses demand extra work on Friday when extra bonus is on cards.
i.e.: super extra bonus in on cards...FAT COOL :-)

take care not to get caught with heavy positions on Friday !!

gt

lisbon bb 09:49 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
BDQ......I think technically it is better to stand a side on USD/CHF.

BDQ 09:46 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF
bought 1.2544
current 1.2533
High 1.2555
Low 1.2494

what are the chances of it getting back to1.2545

london 09:46 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD Large 1.2350 Expiry NY Today

mission viejo fxtrader4u 09:45 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
look to reset eur/usd shorts around 1.2398 as confirmed with mulitiple indicators and trend line, do not trade against a bullish candle, sell eur/gbp 6900, stop above 6920, look for 30 min stch overbought and sell on the following canlde after 6900 test if offered

GOES B747 09:45 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
good morning all,

USD/CHF: current range is between 1.2330/60-1.2715/45

gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:43 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
euro local High
Mon Oct/04 6:45 AM 1.2406 1.2386 1.2370 1.2350
and Local low
Mon Oct/04 1:45 PM 1.2400 1.2380 1.2352 1.2332

HK MOM...I Think U're good

lisbon bb 09:43 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
BDQ...LAST TIME i ask for opinion from this forum result me in a huge loss ..so if you have no strong reason technicalyy or fundamentally dont trade...even recommendation from big financial firm may lead you to loss so becareful.

BDQ 09:43 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF got @ 1.2544

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:38 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
chf...short it

BDQ 09:37 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF opinion

BDQ 09:37 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF opinion

BDQ 09:37 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF opinion

JHB AHG 09:36 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
london 08:16 GMT October 4, 2004

When the Commercials are net short, they are primarily sellers of the currency in the futures market (and buyers in the FX market).

mission viejo fxtrader4u 09:34 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
these trades were posted in Asia session earlier today

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:33 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Mon Oct/04 7:30 AM 199.2491 198.8106 198.4292 197.9906
Small Local High there

to this Local Low
Mon Oct/04 12:45 PM 199.0278 198.5892 198.2184 197.7798

mission Viejo fxtrader4u 09:32 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
close euro short from 1.2380
close swiss long from 1.2525
close cable short from 1.7940
wait to reset positions when technical studies favor

london 09:23 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Euro-zone retail sales slumped in Aug, -1.3% m-m and -0.4% y-y, well below expectations of +0.2% m-m and +1.7% y-y

lisbon bb 09:20 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
hi all....One quick question to firends and member of this forum.How the results of E-12 retail sales?
Where could I receive the ecommonic data related to forex immediately online?(web sites) it is faq but help is appreciated.

SF MRZ 09:13 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
volume pickup??? Eur/$

Syd 09:08 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Large European Offer Being Worked At 0.7230

Gen dk 09:00 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK [email protected] 08:50 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
GOLD.
Good people like Alf Field (http://www.kitco.com/ind/Field/sept232004.html )
made for us a nice Elliot wave count. Ok! So if I follow that count([email protected] charts) The length of wave-one is 374.40-318.75=55.65$. adding it to the end of the 4th count at 371.43 we get…A target of 427.08! for the 5th wave.
Why add? Because we learned once that : Wave 5 normally is equal to wave 1. Normally but not always!!!
From my point of view, the important number to crack is no less than the [422-423] range.
This range always appeared in my Calcu. as essential to further higher gains (above 427$).
Indeed 427$ will bring a serious attempt by the big bad bears to send back prices down from that level, so the chart will have a bearish truncated 5th wave to discourage all traders.
But we know that 5th waves can have several sizes, computed according to sizes of waves 1&,or 3.
As I mentioned above above, as of my personal opinion the Rubicon(http://www.fact-index.com/r/ru/rubicon.html) is 422-423 range.
Bear’s nightmare will be if 427 will be breached and prices will go significantly above 431, or may close above that number.
431? looks exhaustive on short term charts, but is more of Psycho. value.
Have a profitable trading week.

SF MRZ 08:33 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Closed eur/$ longs @ 1.2374 from 1.2367

hk mom 08:30 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
close all the euro longs from 1.2358 and 1.2365 at 1.2375.

SF MRZ 08:21 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Eur/$ @ 1.2380 looks like a pause, 1.2400 and above looks likely for now.

Torino AT 08:20 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
GBPUSD, thinking about shorting on a breakdown from 17940 or so. Any better advice?

london 08:16 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Ccy futures data from the CME show net short dollar positions against other major currencies were up 66,200 contracts from 62,300 during the week before G7. consensus for better non-farm payrolls Friday is to show a rise of 150,000 could possibly give the dollar boost towards the weekend

U.K. J.B. 08:08 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
London sam

Thank you for your vote of confidence, but you should not be following anyone here, just use the Forum for observation. It is important you do your own analysis. I do not spend a great deal of time in front of my screens like most. I have a idea , i put a trade on then i walk away. It is not a competition, my only objective is purely capital preservation.

All the best

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:06 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
9:30 AM Monday
Jay Gonna Get upset with U guys

bong hong 08:04 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
mission veijo fxtrader4u 05:31 GMT October 4, 2004
fxtrader4u: SELL eur/usd 1.2380/1.2410/1.2240
fxtrader4u: SELL gbp/usd 1.7940/ 1.7970/ 1.7830
fxtrader4u: BUY usd/chf 1.2525/1.2495/1.2640
fxtrader4u: SELL eur/gbp .6900/6920/6850
fxtrader4u: SELLl aud/usd .7227/7257/7140

This make an idea for traders

hong bong 08:02 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 06:16 GMT October 4, 2004
gbp/usd
Level Sell :
1.7950
1.7994
1.8010
1.8022
1.8035
1.8044
1.8059
1.8130
Level Buy :
1.7897
1.7875
1.7815
1.7752..


THIS makes no idea for traders

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:02 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Tue Oct/05 12:45 AM 1.2507 1.2495 1.2463 1.2451
Tue Oct/05 1:00 AM 1.2509 1.2497 1.2469 1.2457
Tue Oct/05 1:15 AM 1.2517 1.2505 1.2447 1.2435

Chf Peak Low Time

London sam 08:01 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 07:47 GMT October 4, 2004 thanks
from now on I will follow you instead of Indonesia

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:59 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
cad Low Peak Time
Tue Oct/05 4:45 AM 1.2651 1.2629 1.26 1.2591
Tue Oct/05 5:00 AM 1.2659 1.2637 1.26 1.2591

U.K. J.B. 07:55 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Friday afternoon will be the key for doll/cad. Until then i can't see a great deal going on but favour the upside. Of course if we receive a very week NFP then it is back to the drawing board. Stops in place so i can switch off my screens. GL

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:54 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 07:01 GMT October 4, 2004
Hope you are well. Is it a coincidence or are we looking at the same book most of the time LOL. I am also looking for 1.2285 to print. Hope you have a good week. GL GT

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 07:53 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
short on usd/chf well engaged now. Target 1.2490

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 07:52 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
prague jv 07:47 GMT October 4, 2004
Raden Mass / . Take the same aproach as >fxtradr4u< , or get &%*9
sorry..I dont know. pls explain !! thanks..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 07:50 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
warsaw TMS 07:26 GMT October 4, 2004
you are right.
yes. thanks..
BTW..gbp/usd after touched 1.7957.then down to 1.7920 (chance = 37 pips - spread).I hope you got that.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:49 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
an hour for cad..
I Think changing it's mind about going up

U.K. J.B. 07:47 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Thought i would post again just in case it was missed. If it wasn't i apologise in advance have a good week

prague jv 07:47 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mass / make it simple for us , so we can follow . Take the same aproach as >fxtradr4u< , or get &%*9

U.K. J.B. 07:46 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 20:05 GMT October 3, 2004
nyc jk

Well i am afraid to say ngh special coming out of the G7. So again back to playing the ranges. I think you may see a slightly firmer dollar. Re the lastest imm report where we see a record build up of long Cad $ contracts a long in dolls/cad looks favourable long stg/cad or even short cad/yen have a good week, my friend

nyc jk 20:00 GMT October 3, 2004
J.B. - any early thoughts/bias this week?

U.K. J.B. 07:43 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 21:15 GMT October 3, 2004
Medium term trade

Bought funds at 1.2630 tar. 1.3050 s/l 1.2550 Looking at monthly,weekly etc charts, show we are deeply oversold at current level not reached these levels for some time, recent IMM report showing record long positions, just feel the positive factor all priced in . Good r/r trade for me. Good night

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:29 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
hk mom 07:13 GMT October 4, 2004//
Maybe at 1.7135 around 2:00 PM NY Monday

warsaw TMS 07:26 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Solo raden, u have forgotten 1,1500 1,1000 and 1,0500 on the dowside and 1,2500 1,3000, 1,3500 on the upside for eurusd.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 07:18 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
moon land afraid of america 06:43 GMT October 4, 2004
thank you.
I think you are in Indonesian forest now and I get difficult to catch you. LOL

hk mom 07:13 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
It is hard to long aud at 0.7205. May be I should try higher now.

wellington am 07:09 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
EURGBP - Was short, but stopped out. Daily technicals indicated a reversal, but was not confirmed.
Currently, overbought, but daily studies now indicate upward trend in tact. Suggest buying dips from .6800/50 for continuation of uptrend.

Tallinn viies 07:01 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!

my precious broke previous day low. short term top could be in place for at least next 48 hours. selling on ticks higher prefered startegy today.
important to keep stop over 1,2450. downside target 1,2285/90 first.
good day

houston ken 06:58 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
moon land you need to tune it down the guy is good is right made some pips

moon land afraid of america 06:43 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 06
i think you r mostly wrong
i think u should stop forecasting
and try to catch monkeys in indonesian forests

moon land afraid of america 06:40 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
i will not sell

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 06:27 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
who want to sell gbp/usd after touched 1.7957?..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 06:18 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Gold
Level sell :
419.00
422.30
428.20
Level buy :
412.60
410.10..

Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:18 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Sorry ML I meant to say that those retracement numbers are for this bearish move from Friday and only if 7905-10 holds the bears at bay.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 06:18 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf
Level Sell :
1.2587
1.2600
1.2646
1.2766
1.2787
1.2839
1.2895
Level buy :
1.2521
1.2512
1.2492
1.2434

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 06:17 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy
Level Sell :
111.45
111.95
112.24
113.12
113.41
Level buy :
110.56
110.37
110.21
110.09..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 06:16 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd
Level sell :
0.7251
0.7243
0.7239
0.7305
0.7367
Level buy :
0.7160
0.7119
0.7061
0.7006
0.6973..

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:16 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
chf...short
Mon Oct/04 3:40 AM 1.2559 1.2549 1.2550 1.2540
Mon Oct/04 3:45 AM 1.2561 1.2551 1.2548 1.2538
Mon Oct/04 3:50 AM 1.2555 1.2545 1.2547 1.2537

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 06:16 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd
Level Sell :
1.7950
1.7994
1.8010
1.8022
1.8035
1.8044
1.8059
1.8130
Level Buy :
1.7897
1.7875
1.7815
1.7752..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 06:15 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
still in usd bull !!
eur/usd
Level Sell :
1.2390
1.2405
1.2414
1.2471
1.2534
Level buy :
1.2310
1.2300
1.2285
1.2241
1.2221
1.2183
1.2103
1.1957
1.1939
1.1839..

Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:15 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Yes ML Cable threw a curve on a lot of traders last week. Cable is also bouncing off the retracement area (1.7900-05) I commented Wednesday of last week. I have retracement numbers at 7950-55, 7990-7995, 8020-25 and 8045-50 from the last bullish move on the 1hr chart. Immediate resistance is found around 7950-60 and 7990-8000 big stops are rumored to be just above 8000 for now. 1hr chart indicators show a pullback on the way for now and 4hr chart still has room for a bigger correction at this time IMHO.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 06:14 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
hello all !!

LAX-LGB SNP 06:08 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
expecting to see 2.26+ as long as 2.2469 holds £/CHF

£/¥ is barely above 198.55 but a failure below 199.76 might send her crashing to the low 196s - same goes for £/$ which is above 1.7929 but needs to clear 1.7981

also waiting to see how €/$ and AUD/$ perform @ 1.2410 and 0.7259

ICT ML 06:07 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Well OMIL truth be told cable and her evil Jap twin put a hurt on me last week with all that chaos. At least here I have a channel line to consider to exit if broken.......

Heres to a much better week for all!

Juneau CAR 06:04 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Will they hold they euro to 1.24 until after the election?

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 06:02 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf: now short at 1.2538.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:57 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 05:46 GMT October 4, 2004
I hope you are doing well buddy. I was thrown off with the pullback on Thursday for cable but still looking for the 1.7900-7880 area to print and 7840-50 for now ML. With daily indicators turning bearish now I believe a bigger pullback is in the cards IMHO. GL GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:50 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 05:34 GMT October 4, 2004
Interesting piece of info but I believe the oil companies will fight this kind of technology till the end like the tobacco company kept the blinders on the publics eyes about the deadly nicotine many years ago. This kind of technology could probably be more advanced at this stage but I believe the big boys (oil companies) that hold the cards will not let this happen to soon unless the oil market becomes to expensive for the world to consume IMHO. Thanks for the post TIM hope you have a good week. GL GT

ICT ML 05:46 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
From a general observation cable stopped in Asia at the bottom up-channel line on the 4 hr charts. Could see cable rebound while euro sells off which is consistant with their strange relationship the past week.

Also $Jpy stopped on its daily up-channel bottom as well @109.80 area and has rebounded nicely. Monthly $Jpy charts still say its a med term buy right now tgt 115 > 120 over the next months. We shall have to see.

Mission Veijo fxtrader4u 05:34 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
fxtrader4u: SELL eur/usd 1.2380/stop @1.2410/Target @1.2240

hk mom 05:34 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
buy one more euro 1.2358.

wisconsin tim 05:34 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
interesting piece from platform:

An interesting program aired by the Tky NHK TV on Sat night. It introduced Prof Shimizu and his team at the Keio Univ developing an electric automobile with more than 600hp and max speed of 380km or more. It also introduced the leading technology of Japanese small companies that are asked by the prof to cooperate with the development. The car also showed unbelievable performance, beat Porsche (specific model not identified but) in the 0-160km acceleration test by about a large 2.16 sec. The problem is the price of lithium ion battery that cost around Y20mln for one car, but the program flew to China to show the similar type of low performance car was already being used as taxi. Indication here is success of this kind of electric car will wipe out all the old industries and change industrial structure itself at once.

mission veijo fxtrader4u 05:31 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
fxtrader4u: SELL eur/usd 1.2380/1.2410/1.2240
fxtrader4u: SELL gbp/usd 1.7940/ 1.7970/ 1.7830
fxtrader4u: BUY usd/chf 1.2525/1.2495/1.2640
fxtrader4u: SELL eur/gbp .6900/6920/6850
fxtrader4u: SELLl aud/usd .7227/7257/7140

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:23 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Hope everyone had a good weekend eur/usd still remains in the range with intraday indicators in a bearish mode right now. Mid term signals are reaching O/B area and running out of time but still bullish since the beginning of the month. Long-term signals are turning bullish but confirmation will be a break out of the 2390-2400 and 2460-80 resistance. For now I have first set of retracement numbers at 2395-2400, 2365-70, 2340-45 and 2310-15 area. Second set of numbers at 2365-70, 2320-25, 2280-85 and 2240-45. Support is found at 2350-60, 2300-10, 2275-85, 2240-50 and 2200-20 for now. Key supports are (1.2300-10, 1.2240-50) important for the bulls but main support is still 2200-20 IMHO. GL GT

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 05:22 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf: support at 1.2540 confirmed so far....

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 04:23 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
hi,
long usd/chf at 1.2549 for 1.2565 then short for 1.2490 if 1.2540 is taken

Kamensk Andy 04:06 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Good morning guys...Anyone expect explosive move up of cable this week? TIA

london 03:43 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
hk mom careful

hk mom 03:42 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
ok, let's buy aud at 0.7205 and 0.7175 then.

Syd 03:41 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
ANZ strategists said that as long as the $US0.7175 level continued to provide support for the Australian dollar, it should be able to reach a new high of between 0.7300 and 0.7345.smh

london 03:36 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
hk mom was waiting for lower 7170 possible would wait till europe see whats doing.

hk mom 03:35 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
london, do you buy aud now?

Rye, NY et 03:21 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Tijuana, go here:
Black Wednesday

Melbourne Qindex 03:20 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

)toronto( Dr Unken Katt 03:20 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
indeed Aus bounced off the fibo 37% on the dayly chart

good short ,

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 03:18 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Oct4 Monday
Times=GMT es=estimate prev=previous

AUD Reserve Bank Policy-Setting Meeting
JPY Labor Cash Earnings YoY (AUG) 1:30 prev:-0.4%
JPY Overtime Earnings YoY (AUG) 1:30 prev:4.50%
AUD ANZ JOB Advertisements (SEP) 1:30 prev:4.00%
AUD AIG Sept Perform'nce of Services Index 1:30
-----------------------------------------------
GBP CIPS Construction Industry PMI 8:30 55.8
GBP M0 Money Sply(MoM)(SEP P) 8:30 es:0.63% prev:0.10%
GBP M0 Money Sply(YoY)(SEP P) 8:30 es:5.50% prev:5.10%
EUR EZ PPI (MoM AUG) 9:00 es:0.40% prev:0.40%
EUR EZ PPI (YoY AUG) 9:00 es:3.00% prev:2.80%
EUR EZ Ret'l Trade(MoM) (AUG) 9:00 es:0.10% prev:0.40%
EUR EZ Ret'l Trade(YOY) (AUG) 9:00 es:1.80% prev:1.10%
EUR ECB Vari.Rate Refin Auct(OCT5) es:9:20 prev:2.03%

USD US Fed Santomero speak: Monetary Policy 12:00
USD US Fed Bernanke speak:cross-border banking 12:30
USD Factory Orders (AUG) 14:00 es:0.10% prev:1.30%
USD US Fed Poole speak: Lincoln University 14:30
USD US Fed Bies speak: international fin risks 15:00
USD US Fed Bies speak: risk management 15:00
USD US Fed Gramlich speak: predatory lending 16:00
USD US economist Klein speak: NABE meeting 16:30

Dallas GEP 03:17 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Sorry Dr KAT, we were but I was also looking at AUSSIE potential for continuing shorts.

)toronto( Dr Unken Katt 03:10 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
i thought we talked cad , anyway t/p for cad 2770

Dallas GEP 03:03 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Dr. KAT, the AUSSIE price drop below 7220 is a short term bearish signal.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 02:59 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Baring surprizes, have urges to revise my €/$ tgt to 1.2345-40 by NY open, that's nice! History last 3 weeks says after bottom hit, chart meanders slightly up for a few days. Possible hover pattern before US news Friday. Whatever, be prepared for the frequent NY opening mini-spike on this pair grabbing 5-15 "coffee pips" (mini-long followed by instantaneous mini short) right at NY opening (0700-0845 EST).

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 02:57 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
i trade the 1hr chart , and the macd have crossed and raising

heheh look at the 4hr chart same thing

cross on 4hr = minimum 150pipoz

Dallas GEP 02:53 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Good point TIM. A bullish possie on CAD would indeed be a SHORT usd/cad possie.

Tijuana 02:51 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
What happened in 1992 with the Pound?

wisconsin tim 02:44 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP:Took CAD short @ 1.2640 target 1.2610.

you're both in agreement =) assuming by CAD short you meant $/CAD

Dallas GEP 02:42 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
KATT, I don't do medium or long term trades so ypu may be corrrect there my friend. AT least NOT on purpose.

hk mom 02:42 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
I will put another aud/usd long limit at 0.7205 today. Adding to all the longs I have.

)toronto( Dr Unken Katt 02:40 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP CAD MEDIUM TERM IS LONG ,
check this news

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a24al13AmgXE&refer=home

hk mom 02:38 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Buy euro 1.2365.

prague jv 02:36 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips

U seems to be doing time analysis . Can you tell me , at what times is the market moving moust in Asia , Eu and NY times in GMT ??
TIA

Dallas GEP 02:26 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Took CAD short @ 1.2640 target 1.2610. possie assumes we will be in same range as Friday but it may be too early to determine that. Eur/gbp shorts still in play and so are AUSSIE shorts from 7237.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 02:21 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Summing up:
GV's FREE research section is gold..recommend it on "Analysis & News" then click "Research" on right side bar. First link says about €/$: "Bias: Possibly continuing the correction to 1.2345-65 but the main risk is still higher"
I checked the 1hr 30 day chart, (my fav for position trading) & drew resistance line (a little difficult..dips are choppy), came up w/same view. Last Thursday I posted my tgt=1.2350, still is. Once that resistance is hit (1.2345-65) & is stable then I'll close my short and will long it immediately. I don't much care what Friday's jobless claims are...euro;/$chart will probably see 1.2460 or higher.

Like most I feel we'll hover pattern til job claims come out Friday, then I feel all hades will break lose and we'll get our adrenalin rush.

Melbourne Qindex 01:57 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 01:56 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Small chunk of Monday forecasts of trading bands
time is not for all day...Jay might be upset..so
The right 2 bands is the long and PT
the left...I think U know..
Mon Oct/04 12:00 AM 1.8011 1.7953 1.7993 1.7935
Mon Oct/04 12:30 AM 1.8014 1.7956 1.7996 1.7938
Mon Oct/04 1:00 AM 1.8013 1.7955 1.7991 1.7933
Mon Oct/04 1:30 AM 1.8014 1.7956 1.7992 1.7934
Mon Oct/04 2:00 AM 1.8027 1.7969 1.7985 1.7927
Mon Oct/04 5:00 AM 1.8016 1.7958 1.7983 1.7925
Mon Oct/04 5:30 AM 1.8009 1.7951 1.7975 1.7917
Mon Oct/04 6:00 AM 1.8018 1.7960 1.7995 1.7937
Mon Oct/04 6:30 AM 1.8022 1.7964 1.7997 1.7939
Mon Oct/04 7:00 AM 1.8035 1.7977 1.7972 1.7914
Mon Oct/04 7:30 AM 1.8032 1.7974 1.7959 1.7901
Mon Oct/04 10:30 AM 1.8001 1.7943 1.7950 1.7892
Mon Oct/04 11:00 AM 1.8026 1.7968 1.7966 1.7908
Mon Oct/04 11:30 AM 1.8024 1.7966 1.7945 1.7887
Mon Oct/04 12:00 PM 1.8010 1.7952 1.7943 1.7885
Mon Oct/04 12:30 PM 1.8019 1.7961 1.7938 1.7880

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 01:38 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Trade platform offer to buy / Sell at specific time..would be good

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 01:36 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Mon Oct/04 5:00 AM 200.53 195.05
Mon Oct/04 6:00 AM 200.40 195.22


Thu Oct/07 6:00 AM 204.12 200.48
Thu Oct/07 7:00 AM 204.30 200.59

High Low Peaks for U know who

Melbourne censored 01:31 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
the low in aud was .7202

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 01:29 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Aussie peaks 1 AM
Mon Oct/04 12:00 AM 0.7300 0.7193
Mon Oct/04 1:00 AM 0.7296 0.7214
Mon Oct/04 2:00 AM 0.7287 0.7211

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 01:26 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
anyways I just use this to tell me when to do a trade...
So if Cable is going down...
The model says that I should buy around 10:00 AM NY

Syd 01:25 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Can someone tell me the low in Asia trade onthe Aud plese

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 01:09 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Might do 40 pips in the next few hours

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 01:06 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
OK Just offseted the levels with 1.44 stdev
check cable at around 10 am NY
Sun Oct/03 8:00 PM 1.7991 1.7908
Sun Oct/03 9:00 PM 1.7999 1.7946
Sun Oct/03 10:00 PM 1.7999 1.7936
Sun Oct/03 11:00 PM 1.8003 1.7939
Mon Oct/04 12:00 AM 1.7989 1.7938
Mon Oct/04 1:00 AM 1.8008 1.7942
Mon Oct/04 2:00 AM 1.7995 1.7905
Mon Oct/04 3:00 AM 1.8008 1.7921
Mon Oct/04 4:00 AM 1.8011 1.7915
Mon Oct/04 5:00 AM 1.8019 1.7941
Mon Oct/04 6:00 AM 1.8004 1.7903
Mon Oct/04 7:00 AM 1.8007 1.7890
Mon Oct/04 8:00 AM 1.8056 1.7809
Mon Oct/04 9:00 AM 1.8090 1.7766
Mon Oct/04 10:00 AM 1.8097 1.7744
Mon Oct/04 11:00 AM 1.8048 1.7743
Mon Oct/04 12:00 PM 1.8084 1.7810
Mon Oct/04 1:00 PM 1.8104 1.7955
Mon Oct/04 2:00 PM 1.8124 1.8037
Mon Oct/04 3:00 PM 1.8142 1.8074

Prague JV 00:53 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
There is a trick to help you detect bias. If you want to buy, turn your chart upside down and see whether it looks like a sell. If it still looks like a buy after you flip it, then you have to work on getting a bullish bias out of your system. If both charts look like a sell, then you have to work on purging a bearish bias.


Dr Alexander Elder “Trading for a Living”

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 00:52 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
ok
here
10/3/2004 20:00 1.7984 1.7925
10/3/2004 21:00 1.7992 1.7963
10/3/2004 22:00 1.7992 1.7953
10/3/2004 23:00 1.7996 1.7956
10/4/2004 0:00 1.7982 1.7955
10/4/2004 1:00 1.8001 1.7959
10/4/2004 2:00 1.7988 1.7922
10/4/2004 3:00 1.8001 1.7938
10/4/2004 4:00 1.8004 1.7932
10/4/2004 5:00 1.8012 1.7958
10/4/2004 6:00 1.7997 1.7920
10/4/2004 7:00 1.8000 1.7907
10/4/2004 8:00 1.8049 1.7826

tk jf 00:50 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
10 pips - flip yr gbp chart the other way

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 00:45 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
I guess this suggests that chf is going down from here for a few hours

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 00:42 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
shorter time for chf
10/3/2004 20:00 1.2516 1.2500
10/3/2004 21:00 1.2521 1.2490
10/3/2004 22:00 1.2524 1.2490
10/3/2004 23:00 1.2524 1.2488
10/4/2004 0:00 1.2519 1.2496
10/4/2004 1:00 1.2525 1.2485
10/4/2004 2:00 1.2517 1.2477
10/4/2004 3:00 1.2532 1.2482
10/4/2004 4:00 1.2524 1.2478
10/4/2004 5:00 1.2520 1.2470

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 00:33 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Back Dated
This is actual
9/21/2004 17:00 109.63 110.75 109.59 110.58
9/22/2004 17:00 110.58 110.93 110.25 110.77
9/25/2004 17:00 110.61 110.74 110.49 110.5
9/26/2004 17:00 110.5 111.4 110.43 111.27
9/27/2004 17:00 111.27 111.71 111.12 111.36
9/28/2004 17:00 111.36 111.38 110.65 110.86
9/29/2004 17:00 110.86 111.24 109.8 110.03
9/30/2004 17:00 110.03 110.58 109.78 110.42
10/2/2004 17:00 110.42 110.76 110.42 110.71

and this is the forecast
9/21/2004 17:00 110.54 109.23
9/22/2004 17:00 110.61 109.28
9/23/2004 17:00 110.21 109.51
9/24/2004 17:00 110.93 109.11
9/25/2004 17:00 110.74 109.25
9/26/2004 17:00 111.05 108.99
9/27/2004 17:00 110.77 109.00
9/28/2004 17:00 110.99 108.80
9/29/2004 17:00 110.21 108.54
9/30/2004 17:00 111.11 107.87

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 00:29 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
sound relistic?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 00:27 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
SD tht 00:26 GMT October 4, 2004 ///
4 years really...
if the date thing..yes...over the weekend

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 00:26 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
some yen
10/3/2004 17:00 111.9006 109.0970
10/4/2004 17:00 111.5515 108.4590
10/5/2004 17:00 112.2144 108.4957
10/6/2004 17:00 112.3527 109.7808
10/7/2004 17:00 113.2553 110.2091
10/8/2004 17:00 112.6758 109.5119
10/9/2004 17:00 111.7662 109.8071

SD tht 00:26 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
10 pips is this the thing you've been testing for a week?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 00:23 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
It would take a long time to explain...Lot's of Math
I might do some document as to the math I am using and post it!!...Just takes lots of work to explain!!

ny amc 00:18 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain...........Just curious , How do you come up with numbers like that ????

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 00:17 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
what do U TAs think?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 00:16 GMT October 4, 2004 Reply   
tk jf 23:51 GMT October 3, 2004 //
Yep..
anyways...if any would comment pls...this the euro
10/3/2004 17:00 1.2542 1.2285
10/4/2004 17:00 1.2600 1.2318
10/5/2004 17:00 1.2604 1.2271
10/6/2004 17:00 1.2406 1.2254
10/7/2004 17:00 1.2412 1.2248
10/8/2004 17:00 1.2481 1.2157
10/9/2004 17:00 1.2448 1.2125

 




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