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Forex Forum Archive for 10/05/2004

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KL KL 23:59 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
OUT AUDUSD SHORT from .7242 at .7237...+5 measley pips will reshort higher

nyc jk 23:51 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
thanks within 10 pips. so GBP/JPY will be where tom then according to your crystal ball?

Eilat Dolphin 23:44 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ While waiting for the Oral Gladiators, can you please order a couple of clouds from around your pond to come around my desert?
It'll do wonders to my usdcad organ and I haven't seen a cloud in the last six months, not even one worth a cup of tea...

Philadelphia caba 23:38 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 23:35 GMT October 5, 2004
How about 6682!!!! LOL

Thanks.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 23:36 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
usa 23:22 GMT October 5, 2004// On what do you base this? My E/$ chart is anesthecised.

dc CB 23:36 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
from the reaction to the RBA, methinks the AUD will swing to the price of Gold.

Eilat Dolphin 23:35 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
NO move and no reaction!

Dallas GEP 23:35 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
How about 6682!!!! LOL

Singapore Sfx 23:33 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
unchanged

Toronto YV 23:33 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
RBA?TIA

Dallas GEP 23:32 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
YEP 60 pips 6882

Philadelphia caba 23:28 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 19:25 GMT October 5, 2004
Shorted NZD/USD @ 6742

Good evening GEP, may I ask you on your TP? Thank you.

usa 23:22 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
usd getting weak again

wisconsin tim 23:21 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
I am thinking more along the lines of gbp/usd long (stop below 1.7800 would like to try and get in a little lower though)

vs a Eur/Gbp short although sell e/g now you "should" be able to place a small stop mid 20's

wisconsin tim 23:18 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
yeah GEP totally agree was gonna follow with this last chart ... everything seems to revolve around the e/g cross + oil or whatever is driving e/y higher ... at least for the moment

GBP/USD: possible lower breakout really wish i had listened to myself last week and jumped on that short =P

GBP/USD

Babuyan Isl MGW 23:13 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
is there anyone else having problems with G**C**I** ? cant access their website and trading platform.

Babuyan Isl MGW 23:12 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
is there anyone else having problems with G*C*censored? cant access their website and trading platform.

Dallas GEP 23:12 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
WEll Tim, I see that we could have GBP test 1.7880 again IMO and I do not think EURO will long as far so that means I belive we might see 6880 on Eur/GBP in Asia.

wisconsin tim 23:06 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd see resist ~2340's support ~2260's
eur/usd chart

euryen had bearish engulfing yesterday and today looks like a bullish piercing candle pattern. Coin toss.
Eur/Yen chart

wisconsin tim 23:01 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp: found support in the 60's and now is threatening an upside breakout. If the stick stays like this or goes higher we have a bullish engulfing patter. eurgbp chart

Syd 23:00 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Australia's Costello Calls 0000 GMT Briefing

Global-View Survey 22:59 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   

Last Call for This Week's Survey:

We are conducting our bi-weekly forex survey today and are looking for new participants. If you are a "reasonably" experienced trader and would like to participate, send us an
EMAIL

NY Raider19 22:56 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
NYMEX Crude Oil //// thx! I will try the select! I think it looks good.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 22:50 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Ny Raider// into google put:

commodit oil real time

exactly like I wrote it and see what you get.

KL KL 22:49 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
in small short auduad .7242....will add till .728 - sl 10 above

NY Raider19 22:47 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
NYMEX Crude Oil //// Looking for a free real-time quote source on the internet for NYMEX Crude Oil. Interest in UK, other market and overnight session quotes as well. I think nymex.com is poor, and multiple newswires and financial tv are not cutting it. TIA

Melbourne Qindex 22:44 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

boston mpd004 22:39 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
short eur/jpy 136.89....no sl right now, will look for awhile

Melbourne Qindex 22:27 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Pecs Andras 22:26 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
USA
I DO have a stop, it is now above yesterdays high

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 22:25 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 22:17 GMT October 5, 2004 ///
Well for the system to generate that chart (BackDated One)
had to have some historical data...I removed the from Tue Sep/28 3:00 PM
onwards....Just to show that system can forecast any date after... (Which is what happened from last week)

usa 22:19 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
where is your stop on the AUD? just curious.... it doesnt sound like you have one

nyc jk 22:17 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
thanks guys. no way ML, like I said will leave that one to the GBP/JPY experts lol, just pop in once in a while on it.

within 10 pips - what are you trying to show with that GBP/JPY chart post, not sure I get it?

Pecs Andras 22:15 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi everybody and good trading
I am short Aussie from yesterday at 7224. Shall I bail out before the RBA announcement? What is to be expected? No rate hike, I guess, but will it afffect aussie righ away?
TIA

Dallas GEP 22:10 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Excellent trade JK, about 24 hours ago I was thinking about SHORTING gbp/jpy at 198.40 but with gbp/usd shorts due in part to eur/gbp longs and with JPY being affected by HIGH oil prices...LONG seem to be the preferred direction. I was then looking for 197.20 was of course was NOT seen.

ICT ML 22:10 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
JK...well you are certainly showing your manhood now by strapping on that monster! Baptism by fire it appears...LOL.....you'll get addicted to it now and later you'll be combing the carpet for pips!
Just kidding....well done

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 22:08 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
correction:
The "last" data point was
so for the system...it did not have the data after that point.

NewYork frankie 22:08 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
all my money's on usdcad. tight stop at 1.2590 going for 50pips guarenteed by tomorrow! ..

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 22:06 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/GBPYenBacDate.gif
This Chart
The data point was 9/28/2004 Tue Sep/28 3:00 PM
check the actual after that.. :)

nyc jk 22:05 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
thanks vm jf. gl !

nyc jk 22:04 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
I hear yah GEP , crazy pair that one. in case anyone is wondering what jf is referring to, it is a trade I posted on gvi earlier today
nyc jk 15:11 GMT October 5, 2004
nyc jk 11:57 GMT October 5, 2004
long GBP/JPY 197.70 stop 197.00 tp open but ideally somewhere near 200.

stop now moved to b/e.




tk jf 22:04 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
jk - no square at moment played ard alot in buying 65-78 - but i got stopped at 62 the first time - gbpusd is the one to play today i think - let the tight range play for a little while then go with the next movement - other than that not thrilled with the rest

KL KL 22:00 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh, 9.30 am today RBA...you're right but also election this Sat. So unlikely for them to rock the boat now. As for cable I too looking to short but I think Aud is better option now....cable have dropped quite hard while aud not as much. As I said before I don't like shorting when gold is on the march again....possible for aud to be supported by gold. Gold have been moving big time up and down lately...so I may refocus on gold as well. Yesterday/today range almost $7 big biggies...better than pip raiding ...lol

Dallas GEP 21:59 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
I love riding roller coasters. The faster the better, even to the point of thinking you will fly off with the car itself when it leaves the track. GBP/JPY is EXACTLY the same way...I readily admit there are a few times I have FLOWN off the track so to speak with a gbp/jpy possie but at the same time the exhilration of the other times that the gbp/jpy was successfully ridden far outweighed the occassional blowout. People with Heart Conditions are advised NOT to ride this roller coaster. The train is much safer because it will get you there generally , just not as soon.

nyc jk 21:59 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
lol jf. nah, not normally my pair so will leave it to the experts like you, but have seen a couple things in it that seemed worth taking a punt on lately. I actually sold out half of the long position posted earlier just a little higher than here as I am not super impressed with the GBP leg (although it is still holding 1.78) and moved the rest of the stop to entry on it so worst case scenario have a few pips in the account. expect $/jpy to have some resistance 111.45/50 according to Japanese man so will take a look there. you have any position/view on it at the mom?

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 21:59 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 21:45 GMT October 5, 2004// The platforms nick you pretty hard for aussie..you HAVE to have that topography! ;^[]

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 21:57 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
if You place an order for the lowest and / or the highest point on the chart...no way U will loss money with the time fram

Austin rb 21:55 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP
could you explain why usd/jpy staying above 111 would keep the eur/usd from up movement

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 21:54 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/GBPYen.gif

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 21:51 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Someone put a nice short on €/$ to get this thing moving UP, OK? LOL

tk jf 21:46 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
jk u trying to take me on in gbpyen these days lol - gd stuff - makes life more interesting thats for sure

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 21:45 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
by the way ...U guys see the the jerks in chart...(aussie)
these do happen in real life data most of the time

nyc jk 21:44 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 18:58 GMT October 5, 2004
revdax// Tks amigo. My inferred point is that we should NOT criticize trading methods of others who obviously make a lot of money (for themselves/clients) doing it their way.

valdez - I suspect nothing I say will change your mind, but let me warn you to be very wary because what sometimes may appear to be "obviously " true with regard to certain individuals results may in fact be far from it. believe what you want but don't say I didn't tell you so some day.

Syd 21:43 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
yes 23.30GMT.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 21:41 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
tk jf 21:33 GMT October 5, 2004 //
some time...the error on small scale is offseted by the biger wave..
Last night I made new parameters for 5 min 15 min...etc up one month data
what I now use for the daily data...is about 88% confindence
to the 5 min data I use it in such a way that it would give me the same levels as in daily...

Cape Town 21:40 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
AudUsd - could we be in a 5th wave from the move from beginning Sep? Possibly equality with wave 1 gives target of around 0.74 which would also be close to 50% retracement of the yearly move. Just an idea from a contact of mine.

Livingston nh 21:40 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
KL - if it doesnt work out -- I thot RBA was announcing at 23:50GMT -

Dallas GEP 21:38 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
The advantage of working all three sessions is that you can typical see a little better what the flow of the market may be in a gerneral sense during an entire trading day. I would say that the majority here may be of the opinion that USD would short some more against the other ccy's and quite frankly the indicators were supporting that during the US session. One telltale sign tho IMO that USD would perhaps not short as much as anticipated was usd/jpy. USD/JPY had quietly stayed above 111.00 most of the day and of course that would keep the eur/usd from making any significant longs even tho eur/gbp longs did help keep eur/usd bid above the 1.2290 area and also of course keep gbp/usd at this relatively low level BUT gbp/usd did find support at 1.7800 and usd/chf found support at 1.2600 area. The 51.00 barrel oil has kept the JPY pairs bid for the most part. So with this in mind I think ccy's will still remain in their relatively tight ranges with both the tops and the bottoms being relatively stable. This condition probably will exist for the next few sessions IMO.

Livingston nh 21:37 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
KL - 200 da mva at .73 has held last two attempts - have been short cable awhile and don't want to start paying to hold this one - so out quick and maybe try again on Friday

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 21:36 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/nz.gif
small time fram for NZ
if U like the levels then
Aussie might do the same (Larger time scale)

tk jf 21:33 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 21:30 GMT October 5, 2004
hows yr system gbp long posn going from yesterday (1.7960)?
personally was looking for a bounce but there just really wasnt one so had to revert back to short

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 21:30 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
I chart it before it happens
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/aussie.gif

KL KL 21:30 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh, u MAY be right this time but like you say rate could have been factored in already...no rate rise....I am waiting for it to pop above .725 maybe .727. In 2 minds now to short a little now .....wait and add later as it goes up... till .727 sl 10 above...hmmm

JHB JW 21:29 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Livingstone. Thanks

Livingston nh 21:26 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
JHB JW - RSI would be one for a range market (short period 5 or 8)

usa 21:26 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
what is your reason Bahrain? just curious

Dallas GEP 21:26 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Both aussie and kiwi making some moves here short. Whether they will be sustained here or not is the question.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 21:25 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Well, so much for the €/$ "going up for the rest of the day" theory.

Here's the eye peelers for maŮana:

Oct 6 Wednesday
Times=GMT es=estimate pr=previous

GBP Bnk of Eng. Mon. Policy Committee Meets (times?)
Wed AUD Cashcard Sept. Ret. Activity Indx 0:00
EUR GermanyBloomberg Germ.Ret. PMI(SA SEP) 8:00 pr:50.8
EUR Italian Bloomberg Italy Ret. PMI(SA SEP) 8:00 pr:48.1
EUR Bloomberg Eurozone Ret. PMI (SA SEP) 8:00 pr:49.7
EUR French Bloomberg Fr. Ret. PMI(SA SEP) 8:00 pr:49.6
GBP Indus.Prod (MoM AUG)8:30 es:0.30% pr:-0.3%
GBP Indus.Prod (YoY AUG)8:30 es:1.20% pr:0.10%
GBP Mfg Production(MoM AUG)8:30 es:0.30% pr:-0.20%
GBP Maf Production(YoY AUG)8:30 es:1.60% pr:0.90%
EUR Germ.Fac.Ordrs(BBK)(YoY AUG P) 10:00 es:7.40% pr:7.20%
EUR Germ.Fac.Ordrs(BBK MoM AUG P)10:00 es:-0.3% pr:2.80%
USD MBA Mortgage Apps(OCT 1) 11:00 pr:4.90%
GBP NIESR GDP Est. (SEP) 12:30 pr:0.70%
CAD Bldg Permits MoM (AUG) 12:30 es:2.00% pr:-11.4%
EUR ECB Wkly Fin.Stm't - Bal. (OCT 1) 13:00 pr:885.81B
EUR ECB Wkly Cn'cy Reserves (OCT 1) 13:00 pr:171.3B
CAD Ivey Purchasng Mgrs Indx (SEP) 14:00 es:62 pr:64.6
USD Fed Ferguson speak: pers. savings rate 16:00
USD Fed Poole speak: executives in Missouri 17:00
JPY Official Reserve Assets (SEP) 23:50 pr:$828.0B

Syd 21:22 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Austin rb 11.30GMT

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 21:20 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
aussie will crash on friday late (Best time to short)
Next week Aussie will see 7050

Austin rb 21:20 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
what time gmt is australia 9:30 interest rate release thanks

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 21:15 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
aussie is south bound
with euro then
Buy Point is
Thu Oct/07 6:15 PM 0.7266 0.7144

JHB JW 21:15 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
I don't post much, but would like sone advise. Which indicators are more reliable in a ranging market,
Thnks

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 21:11 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
maybe up to this
Fri Oct/08 6:45 PM 1.2485 1.2398

Syd 21:08 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh tempted to follow you on that , its getting close to a sell but this is not a normal market

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 21:08 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Maybe to here
Wed Oct/06 9:15 PM 1.2325 1.2222
then up again

Syd 21:06 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
AUS Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision 9.30AEST
Today.

Livingston nh 21:05 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
short the AUD/USD at .7241 - last time I was in this one had my head handed to me - afraid of a rate hike by RBA (and a rally if they don't hike)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 21:03 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Looks Like the drop in euro is really soon
Might be there
Tue Oct/05 11:35 PM 1.2384 1.2247

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:55 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP I hope you are doing well my friend. It pleases me that the comments are useful. There are many great comments here in the FF. I try to give my idea of were the pair is going and let the participants make their plans. I believe that is the only way to learn in any business. Not much of a bounce yet from cable and euro but still waiting for it. I will be back later with more details. GL GT

Gen dk 20:02 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 19:55 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
I am sure you guys have noticed but USD is twitching to the long side now

Dallas GEP 19:54 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, you keep the s*it up and we are going to have to send you to the United NAtions LOL good posts

NYC YIPPEE 19:53 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
" I love FX. Every mother's son can be out of work and half the nation coughing up blood, bombs can go off whereever, economies can crumble and I still have an income "

???

Syd 19:46 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito"
I would like to agree with your views also and enjoy your posts. thank you

ny amc 19:43 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 19:13 GMT October 5, 2004
Great Post Valdez. Truer words could not be spoken.

USA Biscuit Boy 19:41 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
I am out of my long eur/$ position at 1.2318 from 1.2291. Planning to buy euros again in the 1.22's and looking to sell usd/jpy in the mid to hi 111's in the next few sessions. Mainly just want to get a good value trade setup anytime prior to Friday's NFP data.

Dallas GEP 19:25 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Shorted NZD/USD @ 6742, buy usd/chf @ 1.2575 if seen later

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 19:13 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
This is why I've never taken stock in copy cat trading..mimiking trades of others and with no reason basis at all. If the trade botches then where is the analization to educate oneself if there is no base in the first place? This is important for new traders to concept..work on, experiment with, refine a trading methodology/philosophy/discipline/plan. When you goof, then you have something to look at to prevent the same error next time. Trading=constant learning. I've traded since I was a teen ager one thing or the other and darned if I don't learn something literally every day. There's no harm in knowing what others are doing/thinking but incorporate that into your own base trading only on YOUR OWN base.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 18:58 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
revdax// Tks amigo. My inferred point is that we should NOT criticize trading methods of others who obviously make a lot of money (for themselves/clients) doing it their way. As one poster mentioned, if one doesn't like a method, fine, go on to something else or in a courteous way discuss it, rather than to abuse posters. You are 100% correct IMO.

Nuff said...E/$ charts wants to ascend slowly..wonder what 24 hours will see?

Fed's McTeer speach claims inflation is done, (Bull Feathers!) econ climbing out of Greenie's "softpatch". The man has rose colored sunglasses IMO. I love FX. Every mother's son can be out of work and half the nation coughing up blood, bombs can go off whereever, economies can crumble and I still have an income.

van revdax 18:28 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 17:19 GMT //i think what you wrote here makes a lot of sense. Each strategy has to match with the mental profile of a trader. The same strategy that works for one may not work for others.

Dallas MD 17:47 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Cable needs to base over 1.7850 in order to breakout. I am still holding a small position from 1.7815. Mauricio

Dallas MD 17:46 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
One of the guys on ESPN picked UGA to win the National Championship. My other Alma Mater is the University of Miami and your head coach was a pretty good Hurricane quarterback in the great Hurricane quarterback tradition.

ATL MA 17:40 GMT October 5, 2004
Dallas -- LOL yeah history is on your side on that one, no doubt. But I will say this...if UGA plays the rest of the season like they did last week (and they're very capable) then nobody, not even those pesky gators, will beat them. Also, keep in my mind that FLA won't have a week off before the cocktail party this year as they normally do! I'm hopeful...going long UGA here LOL...take profit at the SEC championship

ATL MA 17:40 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas -- LOL yeah history is on your side on that one, no doubt. But I will say this...if UGA plays the rest of the season like they did last week (and they're very capable) then nobody, not even those pesky gators, will beat them. Also, keep in my mind that FLA won't have a week off before the cocktail party this year as they normally do! I'm hopeful...going long UGA here LOL...take profit at the SEC championship

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 17:38 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Well Athens...what should I say abt ur humble words? LMAO

Indeed, I ve known better abt ur capabilities and hv a loong...journey in its global market. Oldman means no oldies song which just to hear for someone, but to take lessons for me.

I m personally looking around that lot of things happen today in reflected Oil prices. But who knows that we d see a gulf war part III (which I dont want to be happen!!, headache), the speculation over the high tension between Whitehouse and some of arabian countries -oil producer- just around nuclear manners or global -devil- terrorism in place nowdays.

Ivan in mexico gulf, Yukos, The Japanese AOC in arabian ect is another factor behind the highest speculation over the supply in NYMEX player.

And I personally think that this market which I ve seen for EURO Bull in Grand Cycle.

Thanks for all. I ll off first...GBU!

Dallas MD 17:35 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GO GATORS!! We'll see what happens after the World's Largest Cocktail Party!

ATL MA 17:30 GMT October 5, 2004
quito -- It was written today, not long before I posted it. As for UGA...the dogs chewed up LSU and spit them out this past weekend...great game for Dawg fans.

Gen dk 17:32 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 17:30 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
well I currently have an order to buy usd/cad at 1.2580.

ATL MA 17:30 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
quito -- It was written today, not long before I posted it. As for UGA...the dogs chewed up LSU and spit them out this past weekend...great game for Dawg fans.

Yippee -- I take the paragraph on its face...exactly what it says. It suggests more downside for eurusd spot. Of course I wouldn't take one piece of info and trade on it. I just think it is helpful for spot traders sometimes to know what is going on with options. Probably the most interesting to me was the lack of interest for calls on eurusd on the rally last week.

Spotforex NY 17:30 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
as Gartman writes about trading styles/systems...

'simplicity breeds elegance'......

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 17:19 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP// I hang out on GVI somewhat.Why? I like to peek in on experienced traders. Even tho thye're totally successful & experienced, when I mix their methods with mine I come up garbled & dissatisfied with myself. It isn't because they're wrong, it's because of me - my mixing one thing midstream with another. I think your methods of course work just fine for you (obviously) risk taking or not..you bring home the cheeze, but when others try to get into your stuff mid stream then that's when they regret mixing methods...yet theirs and yours separately are perfectly OK all the way to the bank. Do I make sence here?

Regards to E/$, seems that post was correct below..wants to ease up all day.

Oakland daimyo 17:18 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
It appears that some of my friends are back so I will speak up. First, hello to everyone. My comment is in reference to risk mgmt. GEP you are a wise man. Nyc jk: busting chops is the only way, either that or let the desk blowup w/ your job included. To newbie traders understand this, GEP has very high accuracy and high number of signals which allows him to use tighter stops more effectively. This style is however, difficult for many newbies due to the psychological stress (quick burnout) involved. GEP's energy and confidence makes his system work for him. GEP, you will be surprised how much more money you will make eventhough you take more losses, adjust position sizes to compensate. There is no escaping the probability to ruin, especially when using martingale betting strategies. Stick to layers which incorporate anti-martingale (when making money, add to positions as you are trading in harmony w/ the market). Oct is good month to start looking for position trades. C.O. has been quite active, I will post later. For all traders, no matter size or experience, sometimes the best risk mgmt strategy is not to trade at all. You must trade in line w/ your overall methodology (some environments favor ,some do not). We get ourselves into trouble when we force trades and trade out of harmony with first self second mkts.

NYC YIPPEE 17:16 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
ATL MA 16:25 GMT October 5, 2004

And what do you make of that paragraph ?

gold coast martin 17:15 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 17:10 GMT October 5, 2004
have not heard that for a long time...to derive confidence from your strict s/ls...instead of a defensive weapon they become an offensive one as well....good post...g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 17:11 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
ATL MA 16:25 GMT October 5, 2004// Hi homeboy! What date was that news written please..within the last couple days or so? GL GT ya ole Uga dawg you! LOL

U.K. J.B. 17:10 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Geneva hedge

I am always very confident because the market can't hurt me with my strict s/l policy. Oil has obviously been the major contributing factor for the Cad strenght today, looks very offered at mom and they will probably test below 1.2600 gunning for stops but i still feel decent r/r trade GL- dont forget we are at over 10 year lows

Geneva Hedge 17:06 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi U.K.J.B.

How confident are you this time around, great trade before appreciate your view

U.K. J.B. 16:57 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Stop for my balance in Dolls/cad executed.
Going back in at 1.2617 s/l 1.2550 GL

Dallas GEP 16:45 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
well usd/CAD technically looks short so while this is a decent level for a long, I will not do it for the time being because the technicals do not support it

Dallas MD 16:40 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Great Posting GEP. You forgot to mention FDIC Insurance.

Dallas GEP 16:37 GMT October 5, 2004
Just as an aside and I will get off of it, I have modified my thinking to try to use much tighter stops than what I used to NOT because I was getting killed on bad possies because I wasn't, i did it because my realization is much of the users of this forum IMO think in terms of 30-40 pip stops IMO. So it is very hard to be helpful to someone else if you can't walk in their shoes so with THAT in mind, I have taken FEWER possies because I have been more particular with the regards to the entries. You also see when I post gbp/jpy entries that I always try to say a disclaimer in regards to gbp/jpy being a dangerous pair to trade because it is. OTHERS have taken GREAT exception to what they see is a lack of risk management on my part but the bottom line is losses are uncommon. So I would say my style is aggressive and is riskier than most IMO because of that NO DOUBT. Perhaps the best thing for me to do is to put my money in CD's and earn 3% a year, NO RISK there at all.


Dallas GEP 16:37 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Just as an aside and I will get off of it, I have modified my thinking to try to use much tighter stops than what I used to NOT because I was getting killed on bad possies because I wasn't, i did it because my realization is much of the users of this forum IMO think in terms of 30-40 pip stops IMO. So it is very hard to be helpful to someone else if you can't walk in their shoes so with THAT in mind, I have taken FEWER possies because I have been more particular with the regards to the entries. You also see when I post gbp/jpy entries that I always try to say a disclaimer in regards to gbp/jpy being a dangerous pair to trade because it is. OTHERS have taken GREAT exception to what they see is a lack of risk management on my part but the bottom line is losses are uncommon. So I would say my style is aggressive and is riskier than most IMO because of that NO DOUBT. Perhaps the best thing for me to do is to put my money in CD's and earn 3% a year, NO RISK there at all.

Dallas MD 16:35 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Lowered Cable Stp to 1.7822 for a 7 pip profit on remaining position. Tgt 1.7862.

nyc jk 16:29 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
cheers valdez, stepping off to a meeting soon, will look/respond later today .

hong kong nt 16:26 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 15:20 -- 1.7800 maybe the low for this week..

ATL MA 16:25 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
found this interesting, thought I'd post it in case anyone is interested........

"1-month EUR/USD vols fell 0.4% to 8.4% and threaten to take out the yearly lows.
The Risk Reversal fell 0.1% to 0.25% and many dealers comment on the lack of
call buying when spot rallied above 1.2400 last week. That means the market is
already long upside strikes, or went to the cash market to put on additional
long EUR positions. Either one is bad news for spot longs and prices have
drifted off in both spot and vols all this week. There were some 1.2165, 1.2180
and 1.2200 strikes that expired today. Option barriers at 1.2450 rolled off
today, but more are seen between 1.2200/50." ---IFR

Gen dk 16:24 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 16:20 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
NYC jk// Your posts are obviously quite valuable amigo, plz don't get me wrong , I'm not sticking up for anyone particularly nor negating your observations. See what you think of my post in the Help forum about layering and add to that in the Help forum so people get your valued point of view as well. This forum is a rich resource for the different angles of view, & above I'm not being sarcastic. True words. :^]

nyc jk 16:19 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 16:14 GMT October 5, 2004

now that makes much more sense than "chasing the monkey down the hole"

Dallas MD 16:19 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Second Cable Long Tgt hit (1.7842) Final Tgt is 1.7862 with flexibility to raise it to 1.7882 if seen. Raising Stp to BE +17 pips (1.7815+17) 1.7832. Mauricio

Athens 16:18 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Curious to see if my minor support 1.2605 will hold again in $/CAD or we will go for those lower levels. In any case, it looks like this pair will finish very soft and vulnerable today unless it can rally above 1.27 before closing which is very unlikely.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 16:14 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
I don't want to turn this into a Help forum but since the chart is prime for such moves now, putting in positions along a winning chart in "layering" is another use of the word layering...not just trying to find the pivot point. Say your possie looks real good, the chart's cooperating, your target is 35 pips away and lookin' good. You place another bet. Then another. Then another..gradually using your total PLANNED allocation for the overall move. That's layering too..in a positive sence...not chasing the monkey down a hole.

Dallas GEP 16:14 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Ok OMIL will do.

Livingston nh 16:14 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Maybe some USD weakness as bond yields take a rest today and a debate tonight that may touch on protectionism, tariffs and "strong dollar" policy

nyc jk 16:13 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
valdez - that is EXACTLY what I am talking about my friend, risk managment. won't waste any space here talking about details as there is plenty in the archives from many posters to chew on but let me ask you a couple questions. as GEP alludes to in his own post, why do you think many of the experienced traders here (some with 15-20+ years of experience) have busted GEP's chops over risk management (or lack thereof) repeatedly?? sure there are different styles and people have to do what best suits them, but that doesn't mean there aren't good techniques and bad techniques. I know some people come off as harsh in their criticism, but don't you ever think , just for a second that that they might actually be on to something??

Athens 16:08 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Wibawa_Id, me a guru? I am only a lifetime student of the markets, my friend. Re a possible plot to drive oil prices so high, I think I said the same in my earlier comment but I don't wish to be lynched on promoting a conspiracy theory and, besides, who am I to know who might be behind? :-) With regard to preparing for major price changes (as you see I don't like the word "predicting"), from my peronal experience back in the 80's when I was working for a major local oil firm, yes, I had used some techniques which had worked fairly well at the time. However, getting older and all the more tired, I haven't kept in close touch with the energy market for many years, so I will avoid saying things which could be practically useless today.

moneymaker 16:05 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
long AUD/USD .7235 tp .7285

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 16:04 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
NYC// Yes, I sure do. Like any facet of tactics one must excercise caution and is always at risk. I think what GEP and I mean here is to put emphasis on risk management. There are a lot of risk management tactics, layering is only one of them. Since we don't have crystal balls on our trading desks the layering system if used properly keeps one out of trouble. And I'm not saying start layering at the drop of a hat...put that first small possie in where you really do think the chart will reverse. Making it too soon doesn't therefore cost you a lot and if one is convinced that the move will mature PAST that initial entry to make it profitable or even flat, fine...chase the monkey. Like all tactics, of course one can still lose...we know that.

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 16:01 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf has clearly opened below 1.2630. Ready to add on short at this price. Target 1.2530

Dallas MD 16:00 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
First tgt on cable long hit (1.7828). Next 2 tgts 1.7842 & 1.7862.

nyc jk 15:58 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 15:53 GMT October 5, 2004
nyc jk// yea, well, I do that unfortunately sometimes too

judging by your own use of the word "unfortunately", I gather you do recognize the inherent problems in such a strategy at least on some level.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 15:57 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Moscow// Looking for free advertising space to make a few sheckles, hummm?

Gen dk 15:56 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:54 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Jakarta Wibawa_Id 15:49 GMT October 5, 2004
good posting..
I like that . :-)

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 15:53 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk// yea, well, I do that unfortunately sometimes too, chasing the rascal down it's burrow. Judge not ye not be judged. I try to place 5% of my capital on the whole play itself, allocating half to the chase then half to two big possies when the chase is over and it's time to whup butt. To each their/its own.

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 15:49 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Athens and GV Friends...

My question is not abt in pratical manner in Yukos or something marginally manner (sorry if I m wrong), but I m suspecting there are a Big Player's want something with Hiking oil Price, even higher than 2 times of the gulf war! Think abt that? Is there any connetion abt renmimbi revaluation or pressure of US and his gangs to Japan or any Industrial countries which would have such a big problem in their econo-monetary in long run if oil sky-rocketing like nowdays? Just couriouse...

One more, if we can catch a big answer of that. Second qst is how we can predict/ or what's the tools we can use to predict that such oil sky-rocketing would be revers.

If I make an angle of technical analysis side. Is there any commodity or currencies that in a grand cycles of the trend will be over just in a days counting?? I dont think so....

Well...this such question must be addressed for my great guru Athens for answer...

TIA

Halifax CB 15:49 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Houston Ken;
I'm long on USDCAD - but there's a huge variance on this one so you better have deep pockets or a willingness to bail really quickly (I think I'm in the second group :). Set both time and price targets, and revaluate if either isn't met.I won't risk averaging down on this one either, but will (perhaps) if the price moves up. Also remember we are coming up on NY lunch hour; always the time for being the victim of a little lunch time fun.

Haifa ac 15:49 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Why market goes up:
"Contributing Analyst Steve Todd summed up the situation nicely in his nightly Todd Market Forecast, available to subscribers on our web site: "Let's see now -- most observers figured that Kerry won the debate last night. Oil closed for the first time over $50. The ISM Manufacturing Index was lower than expected. The University of Michigan Sentiment figure was lower than anticipated and so what did the market do? Why it went up of course."

The only constant in the market is its ability to confound."


quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 15:48 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac// NO. Greenspan deserves not the Nobel Prize but the Pull-it-surprize award.

nyc jk 15:47 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP - ok I can't dissapoint you then lol. that sounds like a very reasonable strategy, people don't bust your chops about that. it's when you start off with that, then pull you stop at 1.2560 just before it hits, buy more at 1.2520, ride your tripled up position down to 1.2480, then take profit for 15 pips on your average, 50 pips below where you first thought it was a good buy that people bust your chops.

Haifa ac 15:46 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GVI. Now I am all clear:

"Nonetheless, as time passes, more and more bank managers will not have the first-hand memories of times of banking stress. That is why we must endeavor to build into bank and regulatory systems the product of the earlier experiences in order not only to retain and consolidate the gains made, but also to rapidly incorporate more widely the future advances that best-practice banks will continue to make. "
Greenspan shoul get a NOBEL PRIZE in the field of obfuscation!

ATL MA 15:45 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD.....For bulls, the hold above the channel line is a good sign, and from a standpoint of risk, it looks good to buy ahead of 1.2255-65. For bears, the "bounce" from that level has not been impressive, bad news this morning didn't hurt the dollar very much, this consolidation after the big drop yesterday is "healthy" as oversold levels work out of the market, and 1.2340-50 up top should offer strong resistance. I'm selling here at 1.2311 with a stop over 1.2350, looking for 1.2215. GT

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 15:44 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:39 GMT October 5, 2004// I put a rather detailed post on the Help forum yesterday afternoon about just that thing..strategy of possies and how that manages risk rather than blowing one's wad on one play then regret it shortly after. I'd like you to read it over and "edit it" posting said edit here or on the Help forum since you're quite a good resource for such tactical plays.TIA amigo.

Global-View GVI 15:41 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Haifa:

GVI 14:37 GMT October 5, 2004
Greenspan's speech (non-market related) LINK

Haifa ac 15:40 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
is Greenspan speech (1430 gmt at Am Bankeers Assoc) over yet?

Rye, NY et 15:39 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
SUV mom 15:37 GMT October 5, 2004
Yes, you!

Dallas GEP 15:39 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
OK Everything time I mention this someone likes to bust my chops about it but I don't give a dammm to tell you the truth. IF you are going to trade this market I would suggest you layer in your position to allow you to stay in with more limited exposure. So for instnace, you could take say 1/2 your normal lot size on USD/CAD long at 1.2615 and then add at 1.2590 if seen with stop at say 1.2560 on all.

SUV mom 15:37 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Are there anyother reasons????

Haifa ac 15:36 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
nj dude 15:30 GMT //LOL. I bet you that ALL TANKS ARE FULL TO THE BRIM and THEIR BIGGEST POBLEM IS STROAGE.
Wait a few weeks and you see a sharp drop in oil and you will only hear of OVERSUPPLY!

nj dude 15:30 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
the oil price rise is due to many factors....china demand.....opec at full capacity..yukos, nigeria rebel uprising, speculation...bottom line there is not enough of it coming to market

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:29 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
IMO
better exit buy usd/jpy when entry band 111.46-111.57. maybe usd sellers are there..

Haifa ac 15:27 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Jakarta Wibawa_Id 15:03 //good q. not sure if this is true and how much of it is relevant--but may be a factor behind some moves:
"The CME has had a rise of 30% in contract trading, most trading as high as 70% on the NYSE has been 'program trading'.

This is now the longest period where program trading on the NYSE has been over 50% of all total NYSE volume."
We may be seeing some moves that are pure herd.

london cam 15:26 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Jakarta Wibawa_Id 15:03 GMT October 5, 2004

I'm led to believe its due to yukos supply issues. Maybe others in the know can expand on this or dispel it.
gl gl

hk mom 15:23 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
anyone still on the long side of the jumbo wagon crude?

Jakarta r4v3n 15:21 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
I also had been wondering with the oil price, the price had been going up 50%...yet the stocks market still up (asian and european is at their high). just dunno why?

hk ab 15:20 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
No people wonder why gbp not rocketing with the oil... strange... people can't find any more news to explain it?

Athens 15:11 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi Wibawa. Good question. I among many others have been wondering about that. Since physical demand doesn't justify a doubling price since some time ago, someone(s) playing games through the futures market, financial, political or both (jard to distinguish between the two in our times).

Sydney Alimin 15:11 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
yen suffers the most from high oil price, usd/yen is rising high again

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 15:03 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi Athens and GVI Friends

Anyone have known better what's kinda behind the sky-rocketing in Oil Price nowdays?
TIA

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 15:02 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
euro has opened above the psycho level of 1.23; Pound has rebounded on 1.78, usd/chf has opened right on 1.2630 : I'm still short on usd/chf but dollar's trend still shows uncertainty.

ICT ML 15:01 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Athens thanks much. would not be surprised now to see it close around that line today or tomorrow. Selling $CAD has become the Blood Sport of Forex now I think.... If large commercials keep selling it that is.

Global-View Survey 15:00 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   

We are conducting our bi-weekly forex survey today and are looking for new participants If you are a "reasonably" experienced trader and would like to participate, send us an EMAIL

If you received a survey email, please fill it out and submit,.

CAIRO AG 14:56 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
ML// Just saw it now... i wasnt here for the last 5 hours.. will answer straight away my friend.

GL

Athens 14:55 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
should be "the recent low" etc.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:54 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
I think good for sell gbp/usd now 1.7822 stp 1.7850 for tgt minimum 1.7788
..

Athens 14:54 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML, minor support 1.2605, then the revet low and, if lower, the line (re my 13:54).

houston ken 14:51 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
pick usa cad at this level , what do you guys think?

GOES B747 14:48 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY s/l hit...I am off trading for today.
hot shots trying to push EUR/USD towards 1.2345/55 before US session close...pay attention to that !!!


gt all

ICT ML 14:48 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
AG...you get my message earlier?

Dallas MD 14:48 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Long Cable @ 1.7815, Stp 1.7999, Tgts 1.7828, 1.7842 & 1.7862. Bounce off 1.7815 Support.

Mauricio

GOES B747 14:41 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
closed USD/JPY for +25pips
took short there with s/l @ 110.09 (BID)...very risky !!!

as EUR/USD does very strange, it will go below/above current today's low/high.
take care, it is small money making big moves market...when volumes considered then ranges are very wide today !!!!


gt all

Bruxville Jim 14:39 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Could anyone tell USD/CHF qoute from that of USD/CAD?
Getting confused lately... gl

CAIRO AG 14:39 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
ML// GOOD JOB ... wish u all the best my friend.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 14:37 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Evidently CBs & funds loved my post so much they moved the mkt opposite! LOL
"quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 13:43 GMT October 5, 2004"
I see rest of day a ho-hummer..outahere. (posting this so as to be a contra indicator!)

lnd ron 14:35 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
ISM non manufacturing =Institute for Supply Management;

ICT ML 14:34 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
CAIRO AG 14:26 GMT October 5, 2004

Yes its possible. Shall see what the next 4 hr candle close looks like. Could be a bounce spot in there soon but market seems to want to keep drilling $CAD for now. Not my idea of an ideal set-up here though......

USA Biscuit Boy 14:33 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
I would expect eur/$ to trade 1.2250/2360 going into Friday's NFP. I guess we tackle 1.2320 later on.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:32 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd will make new low at first minor step at 1.7788..

GER ad 14:32 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Long GBP/CAD at 2.2538

London 14:29 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Aud gains are expected to prove short-lived , with selling interest 7260-85 . A break of 71.70/89 is still looked for with deeper reaction to the low 7126 (29 Sept) Steadying should then develop prior to deeper reaction.. 4.cast.

Illinois DB 14:27 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
ISM report is
here.
The report has a table summary.
Production up 2.1
New orders down 3.1
Employment up 2.4
Supplier deliveries down 3.6
more in the table

SanFrancisco TG 14:27 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
German unemployment at 10.7%.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 14:27 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Goldcoast martin// true...we/I keep forgetting the mkt IS the big banks & funds. Whatever they cut off the roast, it's theirs, we only get the scraps thrown under the table.

CAIRO AG 14:26 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
ML// I wish i was here earlier to tell u this, however, just watch cause IMO $CAD low was just printed few mn ago....GL

wisconsin tim 14:23 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
interesting link about Challenger Report while searching for WTH it was =)

Challenger Link

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 14:23 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Tks John, that's good...no Fedspan surprizes.

gold coast martin 14:23 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
While funds and central banks control the upward and downward bias in thin liquidity, the data will be ineffective in terms of providing market direction...and it will seem that the market is ignoring the data...good or bad....g/t

GVI john 14:21 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Re: Greenspan I understand there will be no Q&A

jkt-aye 14:20 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GBP ... found low atm at TL from 9/7 to 9/15 on H1 chart + divergence H1 + my dynamic support at 1.778x, me think it's a good R/R long cable here for 1.7890 - 1.7940 (risking today's lo as sl).

Plovdiv Gotin 14:19 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
TG/ What are all details? TIA.

ICT ML 14:19 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Sold $CAD again after fell thru 50. Thought we'd see a much better bounce than that to at least 1.2850 area but market seems to say otherwise. Looking for another test of the new YTD low sub 1.2600 soon.

NFP should get whacked this month because of the Hurricanes i would think. Florida is a mess still. So have that in back of my head as well.

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 14:17 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
as long as usd/chf keeps opening below 1.2630, the downtrend is safe. Right now, there is a lot of uncertainty. Wait 45 minutes and short at 1.2630 if prices are below of course.

SanFrancisco TG 14:16 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Employment in the data improved to 54.6 vs 52.5 prior.

London 14:16 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Oil Prices Threaten Global Growth
ADB Chief Economist

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 14:15 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
yes, Greenspan's 1430 is still on..check event calender I posted below rather than constant questions about what's already been posted. G'span speaks on banking regs in NY...not a biggie..unless Q/A period renders something.

Dallas//sheesh pal, hope you're right.

RIVER FALLS_USA_ PB 14:12 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 14:07 GMT October 5, 2004
///no more than 20 pips in major crosses exept GBP - less. I am waiting for follow thru - after 14:25 forget it.

praga jan 14:12 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
is greenspan speaking at 14.30 gmt,please?thanx.

Dallas MD 14:11 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
IMHO, this is a delayed reaction. $ will be sold for the rest of the day.

Mauricio

hk mom 14:11 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Hey, USD should be plunging like he-ll.

Livingston nh 14:10 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
FWIW - both Manuf and Non Manuf ISM have reported slower import growth and Non Manuf shows stronger exports -- fuel costs are becoming a concern and some ISM respondents have seen a 30% decline in Florida and S.E. US due to hurricanes

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 14:10 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
goes to show you, get important econ data..no move, someone sneezes, get 50 pips.

Dallas GEP 14:08 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
THNAKS

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 14:07 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Are my Intelicharts slow? Charting a slight USD reaction even tho different from ISM estimate. Challenger layoffs up 46% in Aug (8 mo hi)

Dallas MD 14:05 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
YES!!!

Los Angeles ss 14:03 GMT October 5, 2004
Gep -- dropped to 56.7 in Sept

Antwerp Tom 14:04 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP, 56 something (worse than expected) GL GT

jkt-aye 14:04 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
56.7

Toronto YV 14:03 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
56.7

Los Angeles ss 14:03 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Gep -- dropped to 56.7 in Sept

Dallas GEP 14:02 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
ISM data Numbers PLEASE

hk mom 14:00 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
It works!

RIVER FALLS_USA_ PB 14:00 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GOES - So, we left with the Sheiks; they wakeup at the morning and take a step to sell USD 5B-10B today for some reason; those sheiks see life as a Monte carlo casino (run in EUR).
/// so...was this also your $/yen pair getting hit - hence your buy in the 70s? I have been watching Middle East names keep the USD channel in EURO and CHF (mentioned yesterday)pretty intact since end of August.

Saint-Peterburg fxmachine 13:56 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Happy Trading!

RIVER FALLS_USA_ PB 13:55 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Alimin, GOES///yeah, I guess. only my 5 minute chart showed that possible being the rubber mat. Was that it GOES? - or simply 10 minute timing before ISM?

hk mom 13:54 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
buy some euro at 1.2307 to average down my losing buy positions yesterday

Athens 13:54 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
$/CAD-- still negative on my techs. Late last week it came very close to hitting the lower parallel line of the two major 2004 tops, the line was coming in around 1.2560 when this pair fell under 1.26. The (expected) bounce off failed to clear this week resistance 1.2765-70 (a stonger one was 1.2810-15 but never came under threat) and now the unit has fallen back under 1.27. That line is now found around 1.2550, while a move above 1.2850 now would change the underlying direction. Firm oil prices support the CAD s well for the time being. Technically speaking, the pair is medium term mildly O/S but there is no O/S condition short term.

lnd ron 13:53 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
please what ISM = I , index or industrial then etc. etc.

Sydney Alimin 13:53 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
RIVER FALLS_USA_ PB 13:49 GMT October 5, 2004

B747 is the master of yen pairs :)

RIVER FALLS_USA_ PB 13:49 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 13:21 GMT October 5, 2004 ///excellent $/yen bounce call! how did you come to that support level?

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 13:48 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Goes//"So, we left with the Sheiks; they wakeup at the morning and take a step to sell USD 5B-10B today for some reason;"

Please clarify that statement..they sold USD today? I didn't see anything happen...are you sure about that?

hk mom 13:43 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
bought aud from 0.7205 just closed at 0.7330. Good bye all.

GOES B747 13:43 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 13:34 GMT October 5, 2004

Russia: I do not see Russians paying the USD 10/- as entry fee to discos in other ccy.

EU: I feel sorry for myself and the rest of the psople here that the people who make financial decisions for us are those to fly first with the commercial space flights. (these guys are not connectted to earth!!!).

So, we left with the Sheiks; they wakeup at the morning and take a step to sell USD 5B-10B today for some reason; those sheiks see life as a Monte carlo casino (run in EUR).

gt

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 13:43 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Historically, good US news is USD neg. Street expects somewhat improved data. If disappointed $ could fall a bit to seek 1.2350. Whatever, this ISM data may be small pivot point for $ bears to continue their push. Rest of events today seen as non events. Can anyone post recent data on housing start reports regionally for US? To me, housing is excellent indicator...better than most others.

slv sam 13:41 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 13:34 /
may be 20-30% lower US$ from here can correct world economy!.GT

Sydney Alimin 13:40 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
looks like market is prepared to dump usd upon data release, not convinced yet but it could happen

USA Biscuit Boy 13:39 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Good morning guys. I take it no big news to change any views overnight?

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 13:34 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Goes// Evidently VERY TRUE. Then who's buying Euros for stockpile? Europe? I hear USD is being sold in certain European sectors and Japan wimped out on last Treas auction..sign of end of USD appitites? Russia ditching USD for AU now too...all points to weaker demand for the buck.

London 13:32 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Complacency about the Australian election, has the market prepared for the government to be returned for a fourth term. So if Labor does the unanticipated and wins, it could see added shock value on Monday The coalition holds a slender lead suggests a knife-edge result with the Liberal-National coalition government slightly in front of the opposition Labor Party a change in government with Labor could see the Aussie slide next week.
State Street.

GOES B747 13:30 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 13:27 GMT October 5, 2004

amigo, there are no any good news from Europe's better established economies...EUR rise is not because the economy.

gt

tk jf 13:30 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:26 GMT October 5, 2004
how did the gbp long at 1.7965 go yesterday ? today it may have a better chance with mkt playing from short side

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 13:27 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Interesting how $euro;/$ went up at NY opening even tho Germany's econ news this morning was weak. Germany is a big chunk of EZ econ (32%+-). Aug EZ unemployment was about flat w/ prev. (+.1Mln). Heads up on US data at GMT 1400..if a disappointment $bears will salivate. "El Fedspan" speaks in NY 1430 GMT...Q/A period may hold surprizes..keep in touch w/ news.

GOES B747 13:21 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
long USD/JPY from 110.77 running with s/l @ 110.66 (bid)

gt

Athens 13:17 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Re my comments on Monday afternoon, EUR/$ has held nicely its support 1.2250-60 and rallied. thus offering a good opportnity to those who boufgri in front of that first support zone as suggested yesterfay. Nearest minor resistance now 1.8330-35, next 1.8380-90. On the big picture now, EUR/$ held a first short term support line that was coming in at 1.2250on Monday. In addition, and more important perhaps, the old medium term resistance line (going back to 1.2925) that was broken about two weeks ago now comes in around 1.2240. Therefore the pair has abouts testeg is as a support and this (thus far) is not weakness for the Euro.

GOES B747 13:13 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
placed orders:
buy USD/CHF @ 1.2599
buy USD/JPY @ 110.77

s/l 10pips below entry

gt

Sydney gvm 13:10 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:57 GMT October 5, 2004
Oil will drop for two weeks
from 51 area to maybe 43.20
Wow

WHY?

NoVa oddball 13:05 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
It's ISM not SMI and it is due at 10:00 ET

Pta Lud 13:05 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Sorry ISM.

Dallas MD 13:04 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Institute of Supply Management (ISM) @ 10 AM NYC time.

PAR 13:04 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Trichet inflation target = 2 %. Parisian real estate up more than 20 % year to date, but Trichet lives in Frankfurt where they think that all of europ is in recession.

SF MRZ 13:03 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Is the volumee picking up on dollar my computer is going nuts.

Pta Lud 13:03 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
SMI figure??? Somebody.

Dallas MD 13:02 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
prevailing view

Dallas MD 13:02 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Is the prevailing is that the $ is going to tank upon release of the ISM report?

NYC YIPPEE 13:01 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
London ADK 12:24 GMT October 5, 2004

I think he/she was.
Pretty scary stuff. I rem having splippage of over 20 pips putting on positions !!!!

LA Fxnew 12:59 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
$/yen over 112 or below 109

sam: funny statement..
right now yen is at 110xx ... of course your statement is valid

Dallas MD 12:59 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Good Day Traders & GL to all.

Mauricio

slv sam 12:56 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
$/yen over 112 or below 109 within days imho!GT

Le Havre Alphonse Brown15 12:55 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi,
a smoky trade is on the menu. 1.2600 is the hourly and the daily 50 ema on usd/chf. Many players will take their chance at this point. Personnaly , I went short at 1.2630 for 1.2530. Stop at b/e if prices do react strongly at 1.26. Long above 1.2630

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 12:52 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Don't know if we could call this a typical NY opening spike, but it's there. Whether it is nor not it bettered me 23 pips.

Oct 5 Tuesday
Times=GMT es=estimate pr=previous

EUR Ital New Car Registrations (YoY)(SEP)pr:-4.9%
EUR Ital PMI Services(survey)(SEP) 7:45 es:56 pr:56.5
EUR Fr PMIServices(survey)(SEP)7:50 es:54.3 pr:54.0
EUR German UnempRate(s.a.)(SEP)7:55 es:10.60% pr:10.60%
EUR Germ EmpChange(000s)(JUL)7:55 es:-7.5k pr:-1.0k
EUR Germ PMIServices(survey)(SEP)7:55 es:53.2 pr:53.5
EUR Germ UnempChange (000s)(SEP)7:55 es:10.0k pr:24.0k
EUR Germ UnempRate EU-Def.BBK(SEP)7:55 es:9.90% pr:9.90%
EUR PMI Services (survey)(SEP) 8:00 es:54.4 pr:54.5
GBP Ofc'l Reserves(Changes)(SEP) 8:30 prev;$416.0M
GBP PMI Services(survey)(SEP) 8:30 es:56.5 pr:56.9
EUR EZ Unemp Rate (AUG) 9:00 es:9.00% pr:9.00%
GBP BRC Shop Price Index (MoM)(SEP) 10:00 pr:0.07%
GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY)(SEP) 10:00 pr:0.63%
USD ISM Non-Mfg (SEP) 14:00 es:59 pr:58.2
USD Greenspan speak; banking in NY 14:30
USD US Fed McTeer speak: US econ in Austin 17:00
NZD Trade Balance (Revised) (AUF F) 21:45
USD ABC Consumer Confidence (OCT 3) 22:30 prev-9
AUD RBA Cash Target (OCT) 23:30 5.25% 5.25%

Dallas GEP 12:52 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
This may very well be a squeeze to get some USD longs out of the market` Be CAUTIOUS taking USD short at these levels because normally they would be decent USD long posiotn entries refeering specifically to AUD/USD @ .7237, USD/CAD at 1.2670 etc.

Aus sukarnoputri 12:51 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Raden,
who all lost/got the margin call now? following you.LMAO,LOL
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:31 GMT October 5, 2004
be carefull with usd/jpy when at 110.96 can move up fast from here to get 111.46..

KL KL 12:40 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
London, don't get me wrong....I am well geared....only 250 pips will hurt me....I was just testing until ISM....just that I hate to lose....make it an effort of not losing everyday...zero pip is better than 1 pip loss!! No technical indicator is fail safe...range bound is best to test all indicators!!learning everyday. Today I use fast stos to catch the wave

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:38 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
just my opinion..
in my TA system give me information that eur/usd have high prob down move fast from 1.2304 area..

GOES B747 12:35 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
pay attention to the fact that today's pips range per EUR/USD is wider than USD/JPY

gt

Tallinn viies 12:34 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
isnt it perfect level to sell euros?
stop over 1,2385/90
target still 1,2155/60 at my radar screen
fwiw

London HC 12:27 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
The market sneezes and you could lose 20 pips.

London ADK 12:27 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Seriously, if cable's volatility (20 pip movement) hurts you, then reconsider your gearing.

Sydney Alimin 12:27 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
what's aussie doing up there with election this coming saturday...it has gone to the bushland again

London ADK 12:24 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
What a day.....Are you serious?

KL KL 12:20 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
What a day lost about 20 pips and made it back in gbpusd from 1.7820 to 1.7840....I am out now licking wounds..healed wounds. Today like blizzard not sure where to go....big boys must be playing stop hunt...not sure why the sudden usd weakness but I am sure many will get sucked in with other currency long...care ful ...very dangerous make sl very very tight.....ism data out tonight

Gen dk 12:13 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GOES B747 12:10 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
there is no chance for attack on German targets as the reaction will cause Middle-Eastern player (i.e. Iran) to get rid from it's dream/wish to have nukes.

gt

GOES B747 12:07 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
come on guys, Larnaka (Cyprus) is 25-30mins flight from Israel; is there was a bomb the plane never made it to Larnaka.

gt

Brisbane 12:07 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Oil up EURUSD up coincidence??

Global-View 11:59 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   

We will be conducting our bi-weekly forex survey today and are looking for new participants If you are a 'reasonably" experienced trader and would like to participate, send us an EMAIL

Livingston nh 11:58 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD has held above 200 da mva since the last Fed hike but following the EUR spikes after the previous Fed hikes when the EUR breaks it has been a three day decline - SO today is the third day and even a modest 30 pip decline puts it under the 200 da - a cable break below 1.78 might be the weight on the EUR today

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:57 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Oil will drop for two weeks
from 51 area to maybe 43.20
Wow

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:55 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 11:42 GMT October 5, 2004
you are welcome.
about jumping...LOL.. :-)
dont call me with Sir..but enough with raden.

QC WC 11:48 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Now 50.58/50.62

GOES B747 11:42 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:40 GMT October 5, 2004

thank you Sir !!!
btw, do you still do that while jumping off the roof ???

gt

london 11:41 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
brisbane...just dealt at new high of 50.48

QC WC 11:40 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
50.55/50.59

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:40 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 11:36 GMT October 5, 2004
I think to show below 110.87 is difficult..

Brisbane 11:39 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Anybody know the price of oil at the moment??

GOES B747 11:36 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:31 GMT October 5, 2004

and what the down side possibilities (if there are?) ???

gt

Lndn Frnd 11:33 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 11:17 GMT October 5, 2004
thnks for info

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:31 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
be carefull with usd/jpy when at 110.96 can move up fast from here to get 111.46..

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:26 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
This is Local Min for this fat boy
Wed Oct/06 3:00 AM 199.11 196.28

to this Local High

Mon Oct/11 10:00 AM 202.3144 199.0336
Nice 8 biggies---> if have gutties

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:21 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Maybe from 7720 are to 8230 by the following week's thur

Dude City Dude 11:18 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Thks

ICT ML 11:17 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Lndn Frnd 11:08 GMT October 5, 2004
RSI 14 on any time frame is what we like.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:16 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Dudes the real long entry for Cable
is wed around 3 am NY

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:12 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Aus sukarnoputri and ES BE YE
btw..I hope you are not bussy about me than the train go from you..

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:09 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
for the yen
111.4397 110.3347

Halifax CB 11:09 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
The next few days could be interesting for $CAD - today is the speech from the throne for the new gov't and over the next few days it will be debated. The gov't is a minority one with a tendency to overspend; the balance of power is held by separtists and the opposition is a strange union of left & right. My leanings are that whatever happens it'll probably weaken the loonie for awhile against the USD, which to now has been suffering a bit partly because of the greater poiltical instability in the States versus safe-old-Canada.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:09 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Aus sukarnopoultri 10:17 GMT October 5, 2004
I hope dont call me nuts before knowing well better ask me until clear than talking that..
I will explain with free..

Lndn Frnd 11:08 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
pls which time period as better indication on RSI is it 14, 21, or 50 days ??? also i hour or daily chart

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:06 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Aus sukarnoputri 10:02 GMT October 5, 2004
that caused by different entry must use different stop loss rule. I mean stp 1.7860 is for entry 1.7846, but I still not yet give you stp for entry 1.7862 (stp 1.7905)

simple conclusion :
1.7846 with stp 1.7862..intraday for target 1.7752
1.7862 with stp 1.7905..middle term for target 1.7720 or 1.7630.
may I ask you how is your trade plan?(entry, TP, target loss).

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:06 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Interaday for euro might be around these levels
1.2336 1.2211

Moskow 11:05 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Looking for reliable data for precise technical analysis?The best forex historical data is here
Intraday data are presented since 1997.
Reasonable prices and best data quality.

GOES B747 10:57 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 10:53 GMT October 5, 2004

collecting pips with higher than normal volumes per trade; I wish markets will stay like that forever :-) /// it is good market to make money but pips point of view not so good, but what we are after ?!
USD/JPY: position is short but I will play through the week (until NFP) on both directions.

bt

Sydney Alimin 10:53 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 10:47 GMT October 5, 2004

haha shhshhh...oh well u mentioned it already with caps too..i am afraid something bad is gonna happen :)

pips have been very very slow, only several from eur/gbp short which i closed earlier this morning...apart from that, it is all waiting game here, btw how's ur usd/yen going?

GOES B747 10:47 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 10:20 GMT October 5, 2004

it looks that you are fearful to use the word BORING...:-)
btw, how many pips you collectted until now today?

gt

TLN to KL 10:31 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Friend, you'll be lucky to get 3 pips settle for 1...not too late

KL KL 10:26 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
sold eurusd 1.2280 sl 10 above c'mon give me 3 pips

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 10:24 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
yes.. I am nuts
wait.. I must give briefing..

Sydney Alimin 10:20 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
very slow today, euro is still under 1.23, that's not good but i won't enter yet, only after a clear break of 1.2250

Aus sukarnopoultri 10:17 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Raden,
Are you nuts?
you suggest sell again at 1.7862, and in another post a few mins later suggest stop at 1.7860.
Dont do this , if you have regards for my father.Come and join my ( sukarno)poultry farm for a change.
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 10:09 GMT October 5, 2004
I will give stop loss for each entry level.
stp gbp/usd is 1.7860 (ask).

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 09:51 GMT October 5, 2004
I suggest you to plan sell gbp/usd if touch 1.7862, but sell at 1.7843 be hold until meet 1.7752..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 10:14 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
not good to posting here today..too many...
see u..
I will back when all are finished..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 10:12 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia EsBeYe 10:09 GMT October 5, 2004
I hope my number will be accurate and I am happy if you get profit from that..than NATO

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 10:10 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
stop loss eur/usd is 1.2328 (ask)..

Indonesia EsBeYe 10:09 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
He does not use stop instead average in his DEMO

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 10:09 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Aus sukarnoputri 10:02 GMT October 5, 2004
wow.. my best regards to your father.
okay..about stop loss actually depend on trade strategy, but I will give stop loss for each entry level.
stp gbp/usd is 1.7860 (ask).

Aus sukarnoputri 10:02 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 09:51 GMT

For Gods sake, give a stop number when ever u must post your view here, Raden!
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 09:51 GMT October 5, 2004
I suggest you to plan sell gbp/usd if touch 1.7862, but sell at 1.7843 be hold until meet 1.7752..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 10:01 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd
you can sell now when at 1.2287 or add sell possie if touch 1.2301. focuse target is 1.2182. first station is 1.2233 (minor station).

PAR 09:57 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Big GBP option at 1.7800 being protected. Bids at 1.7825,1.7815, and 1.7805. Stops below 1.7790.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 09:51 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
I suggest you to plan sell gbp/usd if touch 1.7862, but sell at 1.7843 be hold until meet 1.7752..

KL KL 09:47 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
out eurusd 1.2287 +2pips gain now working on getting back 3 pips....he he..a boring rangy day!

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 09:46 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
In my opinion gbp/usd will down after touch 1.7846..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 09:45 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
hello everybody !!

London ADK 09:36 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
london - As much as I like to,..I am not going to say a thing on this one.

Sofia anmart forex 09:34 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD 1.7830. We sell at the market for 1.7740
EUR/GBP 0.6885. We buy at the market for 0.6935
EUR/USD 1.2285. We buy at the market for 1.2335

london 09:31 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
As strange as it gets
An elderly Romanian man reportedly mistook his penis for a chicken's neck, cut it off and his dog rushed up and ate it.
The nation's state Rompres news agency says 67-year-old Constantin Mocanu, from a village near the southeastern town of Galati, rushed out into his yard in his underwear to kill a noisy chicken keeping him awake at night."I confused it with the chicken's neck," Mocanu, who was admitted to the emergency hospital in Galati, was quoted as saying."I cut it ... and the dog rushed and ate it."
Reuters

Short and to the point , well its quiet.

prague jv 09:27 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
jpy the weekest , cad the strongest at the moment gl take care

Gen dk 09:20 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 09:07 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

U.K. J.B. 09:07 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
I am going back to bed, its been a long night and i have now just spilt my black coffee all over my desk. Need to start again.

KL KL 09:06 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
sold eurusd 1.2289 sl 11 above....lets see how you fight against the trend....hope to get my 5 pips back...should be easy 95% confident

Melb mpfx 09:05 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo, Japan // Agree with Flip, its always interesting to see how others veiw the markets and I look forward to your next 2 installments.. gt to u

lnd 09:05 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 08:53 GMT. same thing COT and CFTC.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:58 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo, Japan 07:20 GMT October 5, 2004
Good comments Michael. Glad to have you with us hope your stay in the Forum will be long and prosperous. GL GT

U.K. J.B. 08:53 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
misprint i have just woken up i am of course referring to C.O.T.
Not CFTC

Dublin Flip 08:53 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Welcome Mike (tokyo).
I'm happy devoting some of my time to reading someone's analysis/thought processes in conherent english. I have no problem with the length of your posts whatsover.
be lucky....

London Misha 08:49 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Has there been any comments regarding CFTC vs Zelener (sorry if I missed any) result of appeal court?
Synopsis is that CFTC has no jursidiction in spot FX (so I am led to believe).

U.K. J.B. 08:44 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo, John

The reason for posting is that i mentioned the CFTC positions. Am i correct in assuming you would of been bearish for funds which is obviously the complete opposite to me ??

gold coast martin 08:42 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo, Japan 07:20 GMT October 5, 2004
Welcome to the Forum michael...refreshing to see posts from Japan as they are rare in this forum...g/t

Indonesia -Solo Raden mas 08:34 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo, Japan 07:20
Hi mike,
can you write in shorthand brief, as your post takes longest space.
I always .

London Chippie 08:33 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Sep Service Sector PMI 54.7, Much Worse-Than-Expected ...stop on entry now..freetrade

U.K. J.B. 08:33 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo, Japan
Thank you for your post, just in case you missed mine from Sunday evening GL
U.K. J.B. 13:29 GMT October 4, 2004
U.K. J.B. 07:43 GMT October 4, 2004
U.K. J.B. 21:15 GMT October 3, 2004
Medium term trade

Bought funds at 1.2630 tar. 1.3050 s/l 1.2550 Looking at monthly,weekly etc charts, show we are deeply oversold at current level not reached these levels for some time, recent IMM report showing record long positions, just feel the positive factor all priced in . Good r/r trade for me. Good night

Sold out 50 % at 1.2742 bring stop up to entry level run balance.

London Chippie 08:20 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
sold some gbp/usd here at .7870 for .7740

KL KL 08:13 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
That was a slow 5 pip loss on eurusd...he he. Oh Well looks like it is sell the rally now!!

Kamensk Andy 08:13 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai bc - if you around...Your view on cable would be highly appreciated.

KL KL 07:51 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
LONG EURUSD 1.2278 SL 5 BELOW JUST FOR 20 PIPS...LETS SEE TILL NY TIME. GL GT...

Plovdiv Gotin 07:41 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ Whats your opinion about $/SF?TIA.

Dallas GEP 07:39 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Needs a little more confirmation BUT usd/cad short from 1.2740 might work very nicely with 20 pip stop

Tokyo, Japan 07:20 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Commitment of Traderís

Every Friday I will post a review of what the current COT report is for the following currencies;
AUD
GBP
CAD
EUR
CHF
JPY
(The following report is the report that should have been released last Friday, on the first of October 2004.)

Overview:
The Canadian Dollar has displayed strong sell strength, and is looking to continue on its major trend down.



AUD (Increasing Long)
The commercial traders short positions have decreased from 4,605 to 4,490 while the long positions increased by 374%, from 4,910 to 18,396. The overall participation increased by 241%, from 9,515 to 22,945. This is a sure sign that the strength is showing an overwhelming momentum upward. This is shown on your daily charts by the 103 pip movement upwards on last Thursday (1Oct 04) when the report was released. I know I was late posting this first analysis on last weeks COT, but here is what I see coming up this week.
Friday and Monday both showed losses for the AUD, but a retrace had to be expected. The past two reversals downward on the daily chart had their big movements on Mondays and Tuesdays. Mondays drop didnít have much strength, and actually recovered almost 50% of its overall move down. Direction remains shaky, and is still slightly favoring an upward movement.Watch this weeks movement to either verify or discredit last weeks increase in long positions. On Thursday we can view the reports released and tell for sure. Remember even though we see the reports on Thursday, they are based on the positions that were reported on the previous Tuesday (which is today)


GBP (No Strong Information either way)
The commercial traders short positions increased by over 8000, while the long positions increased as well by a little over 2,500. They are still favoring a downward movement but there is no solid info to make a move on. With price nearing the bottom trend line on the daily chart, the only sure thing to do is wait for more evidence to support a move either short or on a reversal going long.

CAD (Strong bearish signals showing, 1 Oct 04)
Commercial Traders going short are outnumbering long positions by almost 60,000. Showing that the current stretch downward is still strong. The COT Index hit zero for the first time after coming close the past 4 weeks showing that the strength overwhelmingly bearish, but entering shaky ground of being oversold. It is time to watch for a reversal, but not time to place a trade.
Yesterday there was a strong move up, but it is still early to start trading a reversal. Bearish is still the best bet, especially after the huge move yesterday. (Interesting fact: 6 of the past 10 Mondays were bullish, while only 1 of the last 10 was. Out of the 6 bullish Mondays, 5 out of 6 of them were followed by bearish Tuesdays.)


EUR (Bearish it is)
Commercial Traders increased their positions short and now out number long positions by close to 50,000. This is a huge number, and shows that the reversal was prepared to go. I know, I am releasing this report late so it easy to say that but I wanted everyone to be able to see how the COT works. The COT Index also decreased from 36 to 19, which is even more so shows the strength in a downward move. This week I am expecting the COT Index to even drop further, which should solidify its move down. The safest bet right now is down with the EUR, and it is looking pretty good.

CHF (Absolutely Nothing)
As for the COT report, there is really nothing to utilize. Participation dropped almost 50% hitting a current year low. Long and short positions equally dropped their share. Longs still outnumber the shorts, with 14,846 to the shorts 8,230. CHF is an unstable trading currency right now, and that makes it hard to read with COT especially with minimal participation.


JPY (Dead-Locked)
The commercial traders are dead lock with short and long positions possessing over 60,000. The only real news is that the short positions are slightly less than the long positions for the first time since the March 23rd report where they had greater numbers the entire month of March (this is the time that the Yen dove all the way to 104). It is still too early to say whether or not JPY is in for another dive, or whether commercial traders are uncertain. Next weeks report should give us a lot more answers.


Well thatís last weeks reportÖ

I know that this entry was extremely late, but there is a lot of good stuff happening right now with the currencies from a analytical point of view when you look at the COT reports. I hope this entry helped those that do not understand about the COT report, know a little more, and helped those that do know what I am seeing so you can share your opinions with all of as well.

Sincerely Yours,
Michael8

Tokyo, Japan 07:19 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning, Afternoon, and Evening to traderís everywhere,

This is my first post in this forum. First I would like to introduce myself and tell everyone a little bit about who I am, what I do, and what I am hoping to do in this forum. My name is Michael, and I work full time as a forex consultant and account manager for a Forex company in Tokyo, Japan. The opinions that are placed in this forum are of my opinion only and have no connection with my company nor the traderís or ownerís of the company of which I am employed. I have been trading the forex market for approximately 2 years and American stocks for over 4 years. For the past six months I have been conducting independent studies on technical and fundamental indicators of the forex market. I have narrowed my studies to three main areas that have proven to be successful for me, and I would like to share them with everyone else as well as hear otherís ideas so that I could learn more as well.

Most of the studies that I have done could actually be considered more reviews, or studies of studies. What I have done is checked out otherís opinions and strategies, and tweaked them in a way that they work best for me. The three main indicators I use are as follows;
1) Commitment of Traderís
2) Central Pivot Point
3) Past Fundamental Releases vs. Past Movements

As you can tell I am a Technician, and evening though I do use fundamental analysis I have even tweaked them into a technical way of thinking. Below I will explain the COT (Commitment of Traderís) report.

1) Commitment of Traderís Ė This is a great indicator, but only shows strong signals a few times a year. The good thing though is when it shows a strong signal it is almost always right for at least a 100 or more pip gain (depending on the currencies). The trade that is placed on this indicator needs capital to back it up, because it does not always immediately take off in the right direction. These trades are easy though to follow your stops with in order to let your profits run. For those that do not know how to read, where to find, or what the commitment of traderís report is, let me explain.
It is actually a report that is based on the positions (short or long) that futures traderís are currently holding. Because currencies are also traded in the futureís market we can evaluate the position that are being held by different types of traderís which will either support the current main (daily and weekly) trends, or give us a strong reversal sign. The COT is no holy grail (like some like to call it) but it is a great indicator that is pretty close to deserving a name like such.

Later this week I will post separate threads on this forum about the remaining two indicators that I use, the central pivot point as well as the fundamental news reports compared to past movements. Following this entry, I have also placed my first opinion on the COT report. Normally I will post this on Thursday directly after the report is released. There were several strong signals last week , so take a look.

I am sure that many of you have more information that you can share on any of these three indicators. Please do, and if anyone has questions, opinions, or anything else to add on them, then please do so as well.

Sincerely Yours,
-Michael8

Melbourne Qindex 07:12 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

KW FXSTU 07:03 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Have Long Eur/$ @ 1.2285. Anybody comment please.

slv sam 06:52 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
bought euro @1.2280 target 1.2330 s/l 1.2250.GT

lahore eur/usd 06:49 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
hi,is eur/usd sit today 1.2250to 2330,40,50or 1.2205 to 1.2305,10,15 and where closing looks any one can told please

london jd 06:18 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
most accurate U.S. political predictions........http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com has an interesting political odds board with real money on the line....taking all polls into account...its moving this morning...check it out.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:12 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Euro next 6 weeks expected Lows and High
Sat Oct/09 5:00 PM 1.2433 1.2121
Sat Oct/16 5:00 PM 1.2313 1.2029
Sat Oct/23 5:00 PM 1.2404 1.1993
Sat Oct/30 5:00 PM 1.2349 1.1977
Sat Nov/06 5:00 PM 1.2396 1.1749
Sat Nov/13 5:00 PM 1.2408 1.2188

LA Fxnew 06:10 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
hk mom:
u closed too soonnn

hk mom 05:49 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Close all EURO longs from 1.2260 and 1.2270 at 1.2275.

Sydney Ge11Ja 05:48 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 05:39 GMT October 5, 2004

Thanks mate, for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction

melbourne farmacia 05:39 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja 04:35 GMT October 5, 2004
Just posted another Saddam story on Pol forum fwiw... good for Kerry...

Sydney Ge11Ja 05:00 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 04:54 GMT October 5, 2004

thought that might be the case thanks for the follow-up.

Syd 04:56 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Traders edgy ahead of potential hung parliament in Australia with latest polls pointing to Liberal-National coalition only having very small margin ahead, selling ahead of 7240 seems to be the way to go

Ltn th 04:54 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja 04:35 GMT. Credibility very low. That is why it is posted here rather than appropriate forum where it would be shot down.` Do a google on author! ( "scott wheeler" GOP ) without the() to get the perspective and where he is coming from.

Ldn 04:49 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Actually when you think about it , next thing we will hear as Mrs Kerry said Bin Laden the man will be caught next

Ldn 04:48 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja I dont know will check around think some large newswires are also running the story.

Tallinn viies 04:41 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
good early morning !
whats up?
lets continue where we left yesterday. target to ride back to the lower boundary.
as we live in dynamic world, levels where euro looked cheap yesterday (at 1,2260/65), does look correctly valued today.
target for next 48 hours 1,2155/60.
so, sell the euro and take the chips from the table.
first resistance I can see on my charts shows up at 1,2290/95.
good luck n have a nice day

dc CB 04:40 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
I find it interesting that this stuff appears less than 24 hours before Cheney goes on national TV in a debate where he will be challenged about his many assertions that there were WMD and that Sadam did have terrorist ties.

Sydney Ge11Ja 04:35 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 04:25 GMT October 5, 2004

Just saw that myself, does anyone know the reliability of that website?

Ldn 04:25 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Exclusive: Saddam Possessed WMD, Had Extensive Terror Ties
Saddam's government possessed mustard gas and anthrax, both considered weapons of mass destruction, in the summer of 2000, during the period in which United Nations weapons inspectors were not present in Iraq. And the papers show that Iraq trained dozens of terrorists inside its borders

)toronto( Dr Unken Katt 04:10 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
it doesnt need to test it , draw horizontal line on 4hr chart on the level of todays minimum, you ll see something mucho interesante

melbourne farmacia 03:56 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Another view at this early stage, odds suggest Gbp/Usd needs to test this 1.7780 area before any lasting upside probing... ( That's assuming one has any confidence in T/L configurations etc.. ) buying into the Classic London opening blip might nett some pips.... but would rather play the move at the time than leaving limit orders vulnerable to unstable Fund types with lagging MA indicators..... GT

hk mom 03:55 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
buy some euro here as well. LONG 1.2270

van revdax 03:49 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone know a good site or service for price analysis?

Sydney Alimin 03:48 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
euro is still under pressure, there was no bounce to 1.23 handle...i think eur/yen will show later where it is heading
definitely a nervous time for existing euro bulls that don't stop out yet
gl everyone

Rye, NY et 03:44 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   

I posted this the other day:

Rye, NY et 22:15 GMT September 29, 2004
...My view, at least, on the Euro is this: According to the method I use, the breakout needs to move to the upside. I'm looking for 1.2620-50 over the next two weeks. The correction low is "confirmed" (according to the language of my system); the recent high is not. After that, (not a very popular view, I'm sure) a sharp deepening of the correction--by about ten cents.........

From the current level, the market could drop to channel support (my channels) at 1.2190 or 1.2135 before breaking out to a high of around 1.2650. However, I'm starting to accumulate here. So...

Long EUR/USD 1.2270; take 1.2650; SAR 1.2110


ICT ML 03:24 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 01:11 GMT October 5, 2004
"Marc, I am planning on shorting gbp/usd around the 1.7875 area. What is you strategy for Asia/London on her Majesty's money???"

Sounds good, sell approaches to 70-90 area stop above figure. Only thing to watch for is 4 hr studies bottomed out today so a bounce is not out of the question. Tgt on downside would be around 1.7720 maybe over few days.

I have not hit a good GBP trade YET the past week and this week though. I bot it for bounce Yday and stopped out -15 on it but didn't SAR like I should have.

$CAD should probably head higher yet to 1.2800-50 area before thinking of selling again.

Ina co'z 03:19 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Hello All...

IMO...resistance for eur/usd 1.2315, support 1.2226 ( intraday)..
...reristance gbp/usd 1.7872, support 1.7740 (intraday)................GL/GT !!!

hk mom 03:14 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
aud longed nice now at 0.7205. But I could not buy it at 0.7175.

wisconsin tim 03:13 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Projections for 10/5/2004
Date Currency Close R1 Close S1 R1 High S1 Low
10/4/2004 AUDUSD 0.7245 0.7170 0.7283 0.7158
10/4/2004 EURGBP 0.6913 0.6866 0.6935 0.6859
10/4/2004 EURUSD 1.2318 1.2222 1.2332 1.2223
10/4/2004 EURYEN 136.78 135.75 137.95 135.67
10/4/2004 GBPUSD 1.7907 1.7737 1.7999 1.7748
10/4/2004 GBPYEN 198.59 196.79 199.68 196.65
10/4/2004 NDZUSD 0.6720 0.6653 0.6755 0.6652
10/4/2004 USDCAD 1.2755 1.2656 1.2791 1.2562
10/4/2004 USDCHF 1.2703 1.2600 1.2727 1.2461
10/4/2004 USDYEN 111.36 110.52 111.56 110.25

Melbourne Qindex 03:05 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Singapore Sfx 02:53 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Ok. Thanks Ldn. Have a nice day ahead.

LA Fxnew 02:53 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP:

what is your view on cable?

Thanks

Ldn 02:52 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Singapore Sfx I dont ask

Mtl JP 02:48 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
ldn 02:22 / Likely a case of career-wise men learning .. from Lawrence Lindsey's example.

Singapore Sfx 02:42 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Thank you, Ldn. So over a 12 month period ending about 6 months ago, then ? Did your friend cite a source though ?

Ldn 02:38 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Amigo of mine found it interesting and emailed it over.

White House hoping payrolls help Bush's record on economy creating jobs; will be last payrolls before polls though politicians likely to pay more attention to revised data for March 2003-March 2004. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers estimates payrolls for that period may be revised up by 288,000.

Singapore Sfx 02:28 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 02.22 - payrolls for _ ? and may I ask where you got that piece of "news" pls ? Thanks.

Dallas MD 02:28 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Funny how the numbers get revised as we get closer to the election.

Ldn 02:22 GMT October 5, 2004
Bush's Council of Economic Advisers estimates payrolls for may be revised up by 288,000

Ldn 02:22 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Bush's Council of Economic Advisers estimates payrolls for may be revised up by 288,000

Dallas GEP 02:02 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
No Dr. KAT, you were absolutely right in your assessment yesterday and I was wrong. I stopped out that usd/cad short at -20 pips because I knew if it broke it would break significantly so GREAT call on your part

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 01:59 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
My target for 8th october is to go for a 'Short' order on eur/usd at closing price on 8th october,2004. this week however eurusd already did a good bear move,though 1.2250 seems to be holding for now but i would rather buy around 1.2214 or 1.2161 around, fibo levels from 1.1985 lows. There is something really wrong with how eur/usd has been working this past 2-3 weeks-rather weird movements or no movement when all other majors are moving - have no idea what's wrong or not...still researching on it but just my pence of thought that maybe some new major cycle on eur/usd is to start in near future.

Anyway...gl everyone.
TIA:-)

)toronto( Dr Unken Katt 01:58 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
hey gep ,howz your cad doing? did u reverse yday?

Dallas GEP 01:53 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD is like a car with two front ends, you can't tell whether it is coming or going. VERY diificult pair to gauge in my view. Look to EUR/CAD for clues. Back later.

Sydney EM 01:48 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja someone looks keen to buy, but yes thats what i am looking for also

Dallas GEP 01:48 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
OK guys the way the ranges are now. I would be HAPPY to get 30 pips and get the helll out. Ranges are NARROW.

Melbourne Qindex 01:47 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dallas MD 01:44 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
I'm long cable @ 1.7836. STP 1.7789, Tgt Open for now.

Sydney Ge11Ja 01:42 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney EM 01:39 GMT October 5, 2004

Thanks EM they were sellers last week as well, should be stops now below 0.7170

Dallas GEP 01:39 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
SORRY JB was the one who had mentioned eur/chf first

Sydney EM 01:39 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Talk japanese selling AUD/JPY now causing further fall in Aud/Usd

Dallas GEP 01:38 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Looking at all these pairs I beleive one the of the SAFEST trades is EUR/CHF @ 1.5545 short with no more than 25 pips stop and 50-60 pip target. This trade WILL NOT be quick normally and may take 1-2 days. JS already mentioned it and technically I think it has the best setup of all the pairs right now.

Sydney EM 01:36 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja I was hoping it would have happened overnight but not to be , think it will hold first attempt 7140/50 so looking to get some in around that level market not overly long aud so can see more upside .

Sydney Ge11Ja 01:30 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney EM 01:20 GMT October 5, 2004
Thanks EM, what you thinking here with AUD? Its holding in there quite well given moves in other currencies but have a sneaky feeling there is going to be an attack on the downside next 12 hours

Calabash TarHeel 01:21 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Nikkei opens in the red, yen gaining across the board.
Hmmm!
Happy Trades

Sydney EM 01:20 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Funds selling aud early Asia session

Dallas GEP 01:17 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
TIM, I concurr with that on EUR/GBP I plan to close out the rest of my eur/gbp shorts at 6860.

Dallas GEP 01:15 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
JS, to answer you question, almost 6 years at average of 80 hours a week. I got beat up with regularity in the beginning tho and still take my hits occassionally like everybody else. LOL

wisconsin tim 01:13 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd right on uptrend channel currently short but thinking about reversing if channel bottom holds 1.2260's

eur/gbp coming on possible support near the .6850-60's

eur/jpy bearish engulfing on the daily might be good short on a minor reaction

houston st 01:12 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 01:08 GMT -- leave a light on for me...gl/gt.

Dallas GEP 01:11 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Marc, I am planning on shorting gbp/usd around the 1.7875 area. What is you strategy for Asia/London on her Majesty's money???

Dallas MD 01:09 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
JS, Dallas GEP is one of the best traders on this board. It would behoove you to learn from him as I have.

worcester js 01:03 GMT October 5, 2004
how long have you been trading?

nyc grumpt 01:09 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
worcester js 00:37 GMT

Mine work just fine, daily and intraday basis. Pretty fair insight into to where to look for support or resistance to develop and to gauge how the market reacts at those levels. 'Course I fudged a bit with the classic formula of computing them.

Dallas GEP 01:08 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin, yep my fellow GULF COAST Texans may have a problem. We are so far inland in the Dallas area that we get heavy rains MAYBE from these storms but that is it.

Dallas MD 01:08 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
I'm in Dallas also & it has been raining all day with more expected through rest of the week. We are under a flood watch & I lost power twice today.

Eilat Dolphin 01:05 GMT October 5, 2004
GEP, I don't know if you still have your feet wet from Ivanovitch, but on the SSEC:UW MADISON site (that give you the whole planet's clouds formation + sea temperatures etc, all on one map), there is a serious multi CB formation south of Texas, already off the Yucatan peninsula, that looks scary should it come your way.
It did start moving up, in the last couple of days...
But nothing on it on the NHC.
So...

U.K. J.B. 01:06 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML

I wud love too. Just seems the market at the moment suits my style of trading. It certainly does not get any easier, i think we all know where we wud rather be.

All the best and hope you are surviving that's the main issue

Eilat Dolphin 01:05 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP, I don't know if you still have your feet wet from Ivanovitch, but on the SSEC:UW MADISON site (that give you the whole planet's clouds formation + sea temperatures etc, all on one map), there is a serious multi CB formation south of Texas, already off the Yucatan peninsula, that looks scary should it come your way.
It did start moving up, in the last couple of days...
But nothing on it on the NHC.
So...

worcester js 01:03 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
how long have you been trading?

Dallas GEP 01:01 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
JS, I use many diffrerent strategies. the KEY is to know when to use the right strategy with the market coonditions that are existing at the present time.

Dallas MD 01:00 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Support, Resistance & Voodoo.

worcester js 00:56 GMT October 5, 2004
so dallas what strategy do you use?

Dallas GEP 00:59 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
I think the MOST important thing with pivot points is that THAT price will be hit with higher frequency than other price points and some traders will enter trades at pivot points when they are unsure of direction because more than likely that price will be seen again EVEN if you take the position the wrong way. QINDEX has an excellent explanation of this on his website BTW. For example: I would consider 1.2280 to be a pivot point on EURO for now. I believe you could make money going EITHER short or long from there. The BAD thing about entering a possie at a pivot point is stops have to be wider than normal.

ICT ML 00:57 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 00:41 GMT October 5, 2004
J.B. very nice calls lately mate. pass some of that mojo my way will ya!

worcester js 00:56 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
so dallas what strategy do you use?

U.K. J.B. 00:56 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Dont worry about it Dallas MD mine was not any better good night

May the Pivot points become profitable- moving averages become memorable- stocastics become successful- RSI become ???? i think i will stop there. GL

Dallas MD 00:50 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
My spelling is terrible.

Dallas MD 00:49 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Theoritcally, pivot points are calculated using the closing price of a market. Forex is a continual ongoing market with no closing prices per se. I know that there are tecnical analysts who calculate Forex pivot points, but I do not know what they are using fot the closing figure. They do work well for stocks & Emimis. My 2 cents. Mauricio

worcester js 00:37 GMT October 5, 2004
anyone have succes using pivot points

U.K. J.B. 00:49 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Thank you for your kind expailnation/education

Dallas GEP 00:47 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Range on EUR/CHF TOTAL is generally around 60-65 pips VERY slow moving generally relatively safe pair because of this not a great pair for day trading because of it's sluggishness. Sometimes may take entire day to cover it's range once. At times keeps usd/chf from longing if it eur/chf shorts

Dallas GEP 00:44 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
ON on that eur/chf, that 1.5545/50 is VERY strong resistance so THAT is the reason for the short. PLUS eur/usd will short as well helping to push eur/chf down in theory

Chicago Mickey 00:43 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Thank you GEP sir. Gud trade to you and all////

U.K. J.B. 00:41 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Short euro/chf 1.5535 tar. 1.5425 s/l 1.5570 to late in the day to explain my reasoning lets say good r/r

Dallas GEP 00:37 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Stop loss on LONG AUD should be at LEAST at 7179 IMO. OK eur/gbp shorts are starting to work. intial target is still 6860 ASK.

worcester js 00:37 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
anyone have succes using pivot points

Chicago Mickey 00:32 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Is this a gud trade? enter at 0.7007 long Aussie, wat s/l should i put?
Is fundamental in Aus a bubble or burst?

Thanks for your folks from Aus.

Syd 00:25 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin taking the aussie as bait

Eilat Dolphin 00:23 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi mom! Looks like the Japanese are getting ready to go do some deep Euro fishin'.
Are you going out with them ?

Melbourne Qindex 00:13 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Gen dk 00:02 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

van WWW 00:01 GMT October 5, 2004 Reply   
RBA rate decision out ?

 




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Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

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