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Forex Forum Archive for 10/09/2004

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Ltn th 23:33 GMT October 9, 2004 Reply   
C'mon Albert! Stop teasing us.

Melbourne Qindex 23:08 GMT October 9, 2004 Reply   
Application of my System

When the downward trending momentum of the market is strong enough to penetrate through the lower barrier of my daily cycle, weekly cycle and 44-day cycle are used as a reference.

Melbourne Qindex 05:16 GMT October 8, 2004
Melbourne Qindex 09:00 GMT October 2, 2004
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle ) : The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is located at 110.36 and the market is negative if it is trading below this point.

Melbourne Qindex 05:14 GMT October 8, 2004
USD/JPY : After 110.31, the next target is 109.53.

Melbourne Qindex 04:33 GMT October 8, 2004
Melbourne Qindex 22:44 GMT October 7, 2004
USD/JPY : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 110.79 - 111.44. The lower barrier is expected at 110.70 // 110.95 and the upper barrier is positioning at 111.69 // 111.94.

... 110.70 // 110.95 - 111.19 - 111.44 - 111.69 // 111.94 ...

Congested barriers of my 44-day cycle are located at 109.53, 110.31 and 112.10.

Melbourne Qindex 22:55 GMT October 9, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is basically vibrating around the reference point at 1.2332 with an expected magnitude of +/- 100 pips, i.e. 1.2232 - 1.2432 for the time being. Next week keep an eye on the market movement of USD/JPY and EUR/JPY.

Melbourne Qindex 03:09 GMT October 8, 2004
EUR/USD : The market rhythm of this operator is determined by my system and the value is 641 pips (k=0.0641433) and its reference is located at 1.2332 (1.23322778).

1.2332 - constant k = 1.1691

1.2332 - 2 x constant k = 1.1049

Melbourne Qindex 22:40 GMT October 9, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 20:51 GMT October 9, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

QQ TEST 20:48 GMT October 9, 2004 Reply   

Global-View 19:39 GMT October 9, 2004 Reply   

Dollar faces crucial test (INVESTICA Ltd)
The disappointing US employment report will raise fresh doubts over the US economy's strength, with concerns over a fourth-quarter slowdown. The high level of oil prices will also tend to subdue growth. Interest rates will remain an important focus and there are likely to be growing doubts over a December rate increase. The dollar damage will be contained for now if a November rate increase is sanctioned, but failure to increase in November would certainly damage the US currency.... See full update in our Reseacrh Section CLICK HERE

Athens 16:04 GMT October 9, 2004 Reply   
Some comments on EUR/USD (linear analysis section) from Trendways weekly analysis this weekend. To keep it in logical sequence here, I need to re-post part of my comment posted on the forum last week

Athens 21:20 GMT October 2, 2004
So then, do we have a major EUR/$ break out on the upside. Let's have a look at it from different angles. No doubt, this pair has clearly broken the dropping medium term resistance line connecting February's year high and July's summer high. Actually the break was seen two weeks ago but now we also have weekly closings above that line. In terms of linear analysis one must expect to see further gains. On a static (or fractal as often called) resistance level basis, the market has yet to clear 1.2460-65 i.e. the summer high before more people share the uptrend view....clearance will set the market on a EUR/$ uptrend, failure will remind everyone of the long lasting consolidation of the last six months.

Now following that up below:

The market failed last Monday to follow though and challenge 1.2460-65, then fell back to the mid 1.22'a as we all know, a level which at the time I called a buying opportunity based on two reasons. First, my model still remained supportive of the EUR down there. Second, the old broken wedge line described in last week's comment was coming in around 1.2235 when the market dropped to 1.2245, therefore on linear analysis basis the price decline would be constructive for the Euro provided the pair wouldn't again fall and stay under the previously broken medium term line. The rest is well known, EUR/$ surged again on Friday and closed above 1.23 for a second straight week. So the old question as posed last week, namely whether EUR/$ can finally clear July's high comes again on the table in the coming week. It isn't a dynamic resistance level but it surely is a strong static one and we can reasonably expect some stops if broken. Should it be cleared then, if looking for monthly highs, 1.2540 was the high last March. Any new upside failure will keep the market within the long lasting established range, which is something I can't preclude given the US elections in three week's time. In case of a new pullback, the risk for the bullish scenario would be a price decline under 1.2220. Till then, buying on dip remains my favorite strategy. Selling in the mid 1.24's to bet on a new upside failure is something which might work again but I am not enthusiastic about since the pair is not in (my) O/B territory.

Note: intermediate technical correction levels are not included in this comment.

Ltn th 15:49 GMT October 9, 2004 Reply   
Depends how far CB's and majors are prepared to let it run before profit taking. I cant pull up charts just now as dratted windows machines are being serviced but volatility has been marked of late. When market fundamental factors are involved fib retrace levels seem to get reset. This is just a guess but 7478 and 7322 figures in Qindex's world may be important. Ask the real experts.

ny amc 15:38 GMT October 9, 2004 Reply   
Ltn...........understood but .75 by mondays close ? that would be 250 points from the low of friday.

Ltn th 15:35 GMT October 9, 2004 Reply   
nj amc// Until friday nite caution had prevailed for probably double or triple the official campaigning period of 6 weeks with the peospect of an opposition victory being taken seriously. On friday the big money started to plunge with the bookmakers on the coallition victory and to a lesser extent in the fx market. Economic models for the beginning of this year were geared to average levels in the coming year of 73 and 77 for different major commodities with differing trading patterns. A 73 average for last march to next suggests that HK mom may be conservative.
I am not making any prediction but 81 to 83 would not come as to much of a surprise around year end.

ny amc 15:11 GMT October 9, 2004 Reply   
HK...Mom.......Dont you think with the run up in audusd from September 9 low of .6851 that alot of this election was priced in already and is due for a pullback. I am new at this so was just curious. Thanks for your time.

hk mom 14:24 GMT October 9, 2004 Reply   
aud will be at 0.7500 by Monday close.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 12:14 GMT October 9, 2004 Reply   
See my post about an almost universal exodus from USD and USD paper by CBs & private citizens worldwide on the Political Forum, posted NOW.

london 11:10 GMT October 9, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin...

you said your election pronouncement with such authority it was almost fact far from the balance of power moving away from the major parties, Howard has increased his majority and walked the election.

gd luck with you 7250 call for monday close....more chance seeing 7450.

Melbourne Qindex 05:34 GMT October 9, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Ldn 04:53 GMT October 9, 2004 Reply   
CNBC survey of 20 of the 22 primary dealers, conducted after the release of the jobs report, found all respondents agree the Fed remains on track for a boost in the federal funds target rate to 2.00%, from 1.75%, when central bankers next meet Nov. 10. Primary dealers do business directly with the Fed, and underwrite Treasury auctions.

Ldn 04:32 GMT October 9, 2004 Reply   
IMM speculators grow record net euro longs - CFTC
Fri Oct 8, 2004 04:07 PM ET
NEW YORK, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Speculators in IMM futures grew a record net long euro position in the week ended Oct. 5, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.
"Long" positions are de facto bets that a currency will rise. "Short" positions are effectively bets that a specific currency will fall.

The data from the CFTC's Commitments of Traders report on speculative positioning are used by analysts as an indicator of future market direction.

For example, extreme net long speculative positions often signal a decline in a currency going forward, especially if that position conflicts with the positioning of the more influential commercial players.

Speculators generally are trend followers seeking to pick a precise top or bottom in the market.

Futures traders extended the net long euro position to 44,811 contracts, a record, from a net long position of 32,334 contracts reported in the previous week.

That could indicate the euro is reaching a short term peak against the dollar, and that an imminent downward correction is likely, some said.

"Can a market that is this overweight continue to trend stronger? Yes, but we are not in a strongly trending market so the suggestion is for a very limited upside for the euro," said T.J. Marta, senior currency strategist with RBC Capital Markets in New York.

Futures traders slashed a net long sterling position to 26 contracts from 7,816 contracts the prior week.

JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)

10/05/04 week 9/28/04 week

Long 11,572 10,277

Short 26,068 32,480

Net -14,496 -22,203

EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)

10/05/04 week 9/28/04 week

Long 50,305 36,015

Short 5,494 3,681

Net 44,811 32,334

POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,000 pounds sterling)

10/05/04 week 9/28/04 week

Long 14,877 16,311

Short 14,851 8,495

Net 26 7,816

SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)

10/05/04 week 9/28/04 week

Long 5,092 5,092

Short 9,852 10,638

Net -4,760 -5,546

CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)

10/05/04 week 9/28/04 week

Long 53,036 52,716

Short 7,868 5,960

Net 45,168 46,756

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)

10/05/04 week 9/28/04 week

Long 19,510 10,783

Short 2,610 3,698

Net 16,900 7,085

MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)

10/05/04 week 9/28/04 week

Long 53,702 31,668

Short 8,389 7,415

Net 45,313 24,253

Melbourne Qindex 01:46 GMT October 9, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


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