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Forex Forum Archive for 10/15/2004

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Boston mpd004 23:24 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
This was a remarkable day but I managed +64 even though the opinions ranged greatly. I think the key to the forex is to grab a pip here and a pip there. All to often, we want to go for the big bang and we end up turning a winner into a loser. The newbies should take note! To repeat what we all learned when entering either securities or the forex is, 'take what the market will give you'. Just my usual two pennies.

Boston mpd004 23:09 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS/gep//but you're still in good shape +12 so far. I think you'll make out just fine. GL GT

Dallas GEP 22:50 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Well as I had thought, USD/CAD longed prior to closing. It closed at 1.2538 from 1.2507 LOW. Not sure where it might be Sunday night when it opens (US time) but as I said, these longs were left open from possie on Firday.

london 20:15 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
The dollar was minding its own business following upbeat US retail sales data when it was viscously mugged by a predatory US hedge Fund. Big banks insist there is money to be made providing nearly unlimited liquidity to these funds but price action in recent weeks (there have been 4 or five of these events) would call that strategy into serious question

think Dollar bears need to be cautious of who is doing the selling !!

sydney 20:12 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Long CAD huge risk of a Sell off next Week major long position being held ..along with oil day to watch is Wednesday.

YVR MAXXIM 20:07 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
CAD at par with USD by the end of 2005.!

have a great weekend!

MAXX Z.

london 20:02 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
CAD/USD - Net Long 49,386 From Net Long 45,168 From the Week of Oct. 12th

CAD longs extended gains to fresh highs for over two years with net longs at
over 49K. However, this week's inability to breach the double bottom at 1.2496
could spark some heavy profit-taking in coming sessions, risking a major CAD
sell-off.

london 20:01 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD - Net Long 38,095 From Net Long 44,811
AS expected, the failure last week to rise above 1.2450 coupled with the poor
Eurozone economic data forced some of the longs to cut their positions,
particularly with EUR longs at the highest ever. Today's rally above 1.2450
should encourage longs again however, with high net longs seen next week
AUD/USD - Net Long 24,203 From Net Long 16,900 the Week of Oct. 12th

Net longs were rewarded with last Friday's AUD rise above 0.7360. Longs are now
at the highest levels since February last year but the failure of the AUD to
close above last week's high of 0.7360, despite a higher EUR, could attract
profit-taking on AUD longs next week.

YVR MAXXIM 19:59 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/106580/content.asp?menu=knowledge

A bear chased two hikers.
One hiker, while being chased,
stopped to put on running shoes.

As he was changing out of his hiking boots, his companion looked at him in horror and exclaimed, “What in the world are you doing? You’ll never outrun the bear if you stop now!”

Calmly, the other hiker said, “I don’t have to outrun the bear. I just have to outrun you.”

The forex market offers more opportunity for fast financial success – and financial ruin – than almost any other market. The get-rich crowd has always been attracted to it. This crowd includes speculators, trading novices, retirees, and professionals looking for a way to get out of debt, increase the excitement in their lives, or simply get rich really fast.

These are the people who you will be taking money away from. These are the people who will be eaten by the bear. You don’t have to outrun the bear (the entire market). In fact, that’s impossible. You can’t beat the entire market. Those of you who try will learn fast that the market has no mercy, can outrun anyone, and shows no mercy.

GT MAXX Z.

Dallas GEP 19:31 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Will be leaving soon. Only thing OPEN right now are usd/cad longs and I will leave them open over the weekend. I have an order to SELL eur/gbp at .6920.

Boston rookie/mpd004 19:07 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Well, the 'rookie' has gotta sign off. And Karl...contrary to what you may think, these guys and gals here are really a great bunch. As someone here said earlier, opinions are just that, opinions to consider. I even considered yours! GL GT

Gen dk 19:05 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Santo Domingo tht 18:58 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Don't worry iw, no one's going to Helsinki to beat you up the next six months, to cold.

dc fxq 18:58 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
"Is it so amusing why so many real professionals don't contribute on this part of the forum? For why is it that you fear a challenge with a third party, especially when taking the subjective analysis into question ??"

The reason most professional do not contribute here any longer is very simple: there are too many "here today, gone tomorrow" smart
a$$e$ like Bonn Karl who pop in to snipe and then leave a hostile mess behind.

"Perhaps I am in the wrong place? Good day."

To that I think you already have gotten an answer.

Helsinki iw 18:48 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
As a disclaimer to the previous, I´ll say that in case someone archives me 6 mths from now and we are considerably lower by that time, I will lose my opinion before I lose my capital.
Have a good weekend everynbody.

ny 18:47 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
sry typo 1.2290

ny 18:47 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
knock out in usd/chf at 1.290 should be protected easily for remainder of the day putting a temporary cap on eur/usd

GVI john 18:45 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Karl- I am trying to be polite with you. Please give it up.

Helsinki iw 18:44 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ EUR/USD has broken the critical resistance and looks like it will close near the daily range top, which bodes well for further advances next week. As always it won´t be in a stright line, so there´ll be plenty of good dips to buy into. IMHO.

SanFrancisco TG 18:44 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
I posted this in GVI regarding the weekly forecast I put in there from Sunday...

"SanFrancisco TG 18:04 GMT October 15, 2004
As we projected for the week, the Euro sold from 2420, stalled at 2310 for a couple of sessions, accellerated down from there and pierced our low end projection of 2230 by a few pips. Finally pulling up to settle near our upside projection of 2480. AudUsd 7400 likely remains the topside for next week, and Euro likely remains similar to this week. Will post projection Sunday eve or monday a.m.

Think it remains with limited upside potential."

Now, with that said, I think it is clear I am anything but a "rookie". My question is what is your preoccupation with coming in here with a swollen head, bashing everyone you can find?

Why don't you cut the ego and bad attitude and just post your trading comments.

Martin is one heck of a professional. You are way off base.

Dallas GEP 18:37 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Great Post Tony. BB, CAD has EXTREMELY strong support @ 1.2475 as mentioned already by ML. I do agree the trend is OVERALL short tho.

Bonn Karl 18:33 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Boston mpd004 18:22 GMT
SanFrancisco TG 18:13 GMT
Barcelona Tony 18:21 GMT ... all rookies.

Is it so amusing why so many real professionals don't contribute on this part of the forum? For why is it that you fear a challenge with a third party, especially when taking the subjective analysis into question ??

Perhaps I am in the wrong place? Good day.

Santo Domingo tht 18:33 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Watch the Euro boys.

Van jv 18:29 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Bonn Karl ///You do not need any opponent---Just go for it--show your skills and you will be honored........

Barcelona Tony 18:28 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin ... Yep, you're right!! LOL GL GT mate

Eilat Dolphin 18:27 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Tony/ Look what it takes to get you out of the woods! ;^)

Eilat Dolphin 18:25 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Karl/ On GVI it is not enough to be right on half of the time +1. You also need time to know, understand - chart even the characters of each posters, his experience; and furthermore, time to get accepted, win respect, trades and... and loose bravely too.

And I thought I understood that your agenda was already quite tight...

Boston mpd004 18:22 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Bonn/Karl.....How about knocking off the kid stuff....It's getting kinda old and boring.

Barcelona Tony 18:21 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Just my 2 cents ... a bad apple SHOULD NEVER be eaten, and a bad poster-or just someone looking for some kind of trouble in any kind of forum- SHOULD NEVER even get replied. So, knowing the fact this forum is handled the way it is (very poor IMO since anybody can be whoever at anytime .. for example I could say this post is from Dallas GEP or ICT ML or ...), we should just IGNORE this troublemakers and FOCUS IN TRADING ... isn't this what we are here for????? Martin, just leave them alone ... they will get tired and get outta here (don't spoil your great curriculum by arguing with this kinda people ;-)) ...

Bonn Karl 18:19 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 18:10 ... I am 100% sure my agend is much busier than yours. Now the crunch question ... are you up for the challenge? Choose your time frame and we'll proceed. Accumulative pips to decide the outcome as size is of no importance here.

USA Biscuit Boy 18:18 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 18:12 GMT October 15, 2004

Dallas I am guessing the canadian and aussie dollars were hurt by that pullback in copper and commodities in general and still have not recovered. Cable also affected somewhat. What do you think?

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 18:14 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
martin// I read you on the right side BTW, but don't let someone like this new poster decide the fate of hundreds on the left side who value your posts. You do have your fan club, Valdez being one of them.
OK, la wifey and I are going to stroll down the avenue a bit and sit in our favorite sidewalk cafe, have a few very very cold beers with our week's profits and enjoy the sunshine. GL to all, hope Monday brings cheering and not leering to the FF. I wish GV would install a chat room where a lot of this useless chatter could run downhill in and puddle there. Hasta la Monday.

VALDEZ signs off

SanFrancisco TG 18:13 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Every time some arrogant jerk shows up in here it loses the input of solid professionals like Martin.

Bonn Karl 18:13 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 18:06 GMT .... on the one hand you're correct, on the other - what is more important, the wonders of life or giving proper trading advice? I think a combination of both, however, the latter is really more important.

Dallas GEP 18:12 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
You may remember the other day when usd/cad and usd/chf were the SAME price. Now USD/CHF is 200 pips LOWER than USD/CAD

gold coast martin 18:10 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
HOW THE f....do you know how busy my agenda is? you dont know who i am or what my position is ....just dont waste my time....
if i post you are welcome to comment .....lets leave it at that....

Bonn Karl 18:07 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 18:02 GMT .... if your convictions are so strong, why not go for it? It's a toss of the coin - perhaps you could come out as the victor? So lets go for it, starting from next week until year end. I'm absolutely sure your agenda is not half as busy as mine, but, I willing to do this ... just for the fun of it.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 18:07 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Manchester Daniel 18:00 GMT October 15, 2004
I could not agree more. Frankly, you can laugh at me, but I look at New Year's Day roughly (from my chartist instincts) for a mega trend change on the E/$ chart to start pointing down and yes, a 2.5 - 3 year time frame in agreement with you. Many feel this way but most don't see it delving to parity. I do. And lower. That being true, in 2006-8 imported raw materials will be cheap buys for US factories and we'll likely see more western competition return.

GVI john 18:06 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Karl- as you know forex dealers are always sifting through reams of information to find what they find useful. What I finfd useful may be of no value to others. I suggest you do the same thing here. If you don't like someone's posts ignore them. Each forum participant can decide for his/herself what they find of interest.

gold coast martin 18:06 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 18:00 GMT October 15, 2004
QUITO..Sometimes it is an amalgamation of funds who in principal agree on the same move...more market moving power..just like the move of crude by 300 odd pips down recently...

gold coast martin 18:02 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Bonn Karl 17:58 GMT October 15, 2004
I rather occupy myself with my own portfolio and own clients...i save you the trouble ..i just stick to the right hand side of the forum....las t post for me on this side. g/t

Dallas GEP 18:01 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Word about USD/CAD. I have noticed late in trading day on Friday's , while MOST ccy pairs are slwoing down or stagnant, occassionnaly USD/CAD will be MORE active then the other pairs. Something to watch for like NOW!!!

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 18:00 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 17:54 GMT October 15, 2004
This confirms what I always suspected that FX is basically a rigged horse race as BB put it. I thought it was more the banks and CBs but you're pointing at the private sector. Do you suspect funds connect up on news days so that more than one fund has in the sell off/ buy out in mutual concert, or do you feel it's a single big gnarley fund doing the majority of this? I realize that old fashioned mkt hype happens as well.

Manchester Daniel 18:00 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Lots of things get forgotten about the euro.

The criteria for a fundamentally strong euro (as dictated by treaty) was that no country who participates in the euro should have a spending deficit greater than 3% of GDP.

Well several countries (most notably Germany) have violated this so-called strict criteria.

Has the market punished the euro for this? NO!!!!!!

This is because the market is obsessed at the moment only with whats happening in the good ol USA. If (big IF) USA can prove that things are not so so bad, I believe, fundamentally the EURO will be hammered down. Mind you, this process can take 2-3 years as well.

Bonn Karl 17:58 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 17:45 GMT ... I only instigated the subject matter, without making personal insults. Thank you for being fair and correct.

gold coast martin is full of himself and a bad bluffer too. I would like to challenge his recommendations (whether day,intermediate, short or long-term) with entry and exit points. I very much doubt he will be take me up the challenge? Wouldn't that be fun? I call his bluff.

dc fxq 17:57 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Van jv 17:50 GMT

A key difference between equities and futures/forex, there are no rules on insider trading. In point of fact both of these markets exist primarily for "insiders" not small "investor"/speculators.

USA Biscuit Boy 17:56 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 17:31 GMT October 15, 2004

I also agree with your assessment of the economy. It is doing just fine and alot stronger than most EU countries. However the fx market has 50-55 bln each month to absorb from our CAD. Wall St is going nowhere and is overvalued so not attracting any flows. Interest rates here are still much lower than other industrialised nations so flows into the bond market are also on the lower end of the scale. Euro makes gains by default. I think eur/$ is probably rightfully valued at around 1.2250 given these factors. Allow the market 1.1750-1.2750 room to move around this level IMO.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 17:55 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Martin// Hey, me too, volitility is my friend, especially this predictable E/$ volitility..blocky chart, fast up..consolidate, fast down. I've done well with that recent topography and prefer it actually.

gold coast martin 17:54 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 17:50 GMT October 15, 2004
NEWS DAYS are a great cover ,unlike the BOJ who dont normally act during newsdays as it may be politically sensitive...Funds acting on news days are just like traders seemingly taking a position before news day but they know the direction prior and we dont.....

Dallas GEP 17:53 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Took CAD long @ 1.2526

dc fxq 17:53 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 17:50 GMT

Answer to that is pretty basic: markets get thinner ahead or major (and now some not so major) reports. Why? Because "smart" money is betting the ranch, they pull back until the dust settles. Also consider that if you are looking at IBS or a similar feed you will note thast spreads widen and bids and offers are pulled ahead of key data.

Dallas GEP 17:53 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Good ONE Pippirate!!! Guess I need ti keep them shorts closed!!! LOL

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 17:50 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Martin// I forgot to ask you, if the funds are pre-determined to sell the buck then you're inferring they pick newsdays for such selling. Why news days, why not gradually so as to not muddy their own pond? That to me is a good question.

Van jv 17:50 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
I can understand funds hedging market positions; but wonder why are they allowed to manipulate futures and commodity markets, if not in their business, in general--to some extent many are insighters---??

gold coast martin 17:48 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
QUITO...whatever causes dollar volatility is great for traders as it provides range and movement...manipulated volatility however causes technicals to be thrown out of the window leaving market guessing to pick tops and bottoms and trade on the pullbacks and retracememts for some pips....

Bonn Karl 17:47 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
sell usd .... euro at 1.2700 by year end.
a clean break below 1.2175 to turn bearish.

GVI john 17:45 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Karl- those posts have been edited/deleted. Dublin Flip made a great comment here the other day. To paraphrase, he said that it is us against the markets, and should not be us against each other. Lets all try to be contructive and supportive of one another. One thing that differentiates the Gobal-VIew forums from most others is the absence by and large of unnecessary fighting.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 17:43 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Martin// I'm in your camp 100%. I didn't know that funds were so weighty until now, good 4 U to point that fact out to us..and the post earlier about a carniverous fund causing the dip the 13th. Funds used to be only some 6%-8% of FX mkt, now I read 32% & wonder even if that figure is shy. And I agree with you, all this hype and crap about the worry with the yankee buck (which is basically solid & stable) can't compare to the wobbly fundamentals in those countries which adopted the €, especially the newer members. I think the buck just gets traded a lot making it more volitile that it would be if it were traded with equal volume to other c'ncys.

gold coast martin 17:31 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 17:12 GMT October 15, 2004
Quito..we need to remind ourselves that for the last 2 -3 weeks whether the data was good or bad it was ignored by the market...the funds were pre-determined to sell the buck and nothing has mattered...they are in the business of increasing their sagging yields before fiscal years end..that is why they are in crude,base metals,fx...etc..
Had the 12485 level was breached purely on bad yankee fundamentals i would think going to the 128 level is a no-brainer...instead the level was breached by fund action...that is why i am sceptical about the euros ability to kick on from here,..and you know if it doesnt, there is only another way to go....the economy is not great but it is improving and with further rate hikes the currency will strengthen against the euro which has flawed fundamentals that need improvement and will take time...i find hard to argue against such fundamentals although the manipulated market does not agree right now for its own obvious reasons..but eventually funds either cash in or liquidate their possies leaving the market purely dependant on fundamentals....g/t

Manchester Daniel 17:30 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
By the way - where is River Falls?? Sounds like a beautiful place to live

Manchester Daniel 17:29 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Please note the following EURO channel (for those who get the Commerzbank daily report, this channel is shown on their chart - the GREEN line)

Lower line: 23 April and 13 May low

Upper line: 29 Jan LOW and 16 Jul high

The upper line today comes in at 1.2530. I believe this line will hold on 1st attempt for a pullback to 1.2350 area.

As a side note - those who do read the Commerzbank recommends would have done extremely well this week - long from 12230 with targets of 1.2460/1.2500/1.2530.

SanFrancisco TG 17:28 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
I fully agree with Gspan. The impact of current oil prices on the US economy has been more a hype factor than an issue of much weight.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 17:25 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
River Falls_USA_ PB 17:09 GMT October 15, 2004// Right on. Let's hope yer right. Nothing like +150 pips to brighten next week! I figure it like this..this spike is news day hype (as usual) stage 2, fuel spent; yesterday was stage 1. Payload heavy because US econ news wasn't bad, what goes up must come down.

Hey Karl, can you give it a rest please...

BDQ 17:24 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Did Greenspan deliver his another speech

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:19 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
I see the usual Friday molestations are in order today well different strokes for different folks. Retracement numbers have changed a bit for eur/usd to 2430-40, 2390-2400, 2370-60, 2320-30 and 2290-2300. I am waiting to see 2370-60 print but a good support is waiting around 2390-2400 area. Key support is around 2320-30 and 2230-40 area with main support still around 2200-30 area IMHO. Closing shop now and I hope everyone has a good and safe weekend. See you on the other side. GL GT

River Falls_USA_ PB 17:13 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
..that was 1.2300-1.2320 in EUR/USD

Bonn Karl 17:12 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 17:06 GMT October ... if you're going to remove my postings .... then in all fairness, I kindly ask you remove these posts ....

Bielefeld SJ 16:19 GMT
gold coast martin 16:00 GMT
gold coast martin 12:57 GMT

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 17:12 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 16:28 GMT October 15, 2004// tks for that info...you're always so informed! If I'd 1/10 the grasp you have for the Asian mkt I'd be happy.
I think my sustained resistance of E/$ at 1.2460ish at least for the moment looks viable but it's 40 pips above my 1 year triangle upper line, tells me this chart does have strength. I still don't see sho'nuff "breakout" signs as yet although a breakout would please my burro. If we're going to toast the first day of "breakout" as being today I'd suggest to go with a plastic glass of $3 champaine.

River Falls_USA_ PB 17:09 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
in hindsight, so fwiw, after $ running stops at 12:30 it appeared again that technical was again supported by fundamentals ($bearish news, momentum funds squaring off mid-month, the "drive by", etc.) when looking at the strong moves in EUR/$ and $/CHF. The upside to the EUR/$ channel and downside to the $/CHF channel seems to further on even moderate neg. $ news. I look for some consolidation early next week and a return to 1.2300-1.2320 later.

Dublin Flip 17:08 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 16:28 GMT October 15, 2004
.....and also{FLIP brought it up} is the r De-listing of NEWCORP from the ASX to the NYSE in the next few months....g/t

What I meant was this has been in the mix and weighed on the Ozz for the past few months. It's being approved soon but would only be new news to an Aussie trader who has been living under a rock. (it was one of the reasons touted during the 6850 plunge). There are obviously have been and going to be some LHS action that have been dampening down the ozz. I personally think we would currently be without the Newscorp uncertainty priced in considerably higher e.g. circa >75c. That doesn't mean I don't think it can rally just that it has some head winds to navigate. Alternately one could suggest that punters less likely to be positioning themselves long (and possibly short) in expectation of incoming flows. i.e. Could be a set up for a squeeze somewhere down the track.

I just wanted to clarify my views given I was brought up.
Have a groovy weekend.

GVI john 17:06 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
From GVI forum guidelines (Please Observe):
6 - Personal attacks on individual participants are not permitted. Readers are encouraged to respect the ideas of those who have been kind enough to contribute to the forum and treat one another with civility and respect.

Rivonia PipPirate 17:00 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:40 If you forget do that everytime you exit the restroom you will be accused of indecent exposure. (financial of course)

sgp sp 16:58 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
no problem ab....when r u free....btw...can u send thru YIM ur e/j short levels?

goodnight and nice w/e 2 u

knoxville dan-k 16:55 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
i have been trading since the early 90 even passed my series 7 exam at one point and one thing i learned even before then was to listen to learn, ask questions decent people will help others if they are willing to learn -------- and i am new to trading the forex thank you

hk ab 16:52 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
sp, not at my home at the moment. Surely, it will be interesting when we meet in hk with Dr. Q :P.
Nice trades and good night.

sgp sp 16:49 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Hi ab....

Yes, still around...u wanna come in?

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 16:49 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
OPO MW 16:39 GMT October 15, 2004//
Agreed, and especially remarks frm new posters. HELLO! My burro said that he thinks you'll find the ones who are here to molest instead of invest are the margn call maids & other forms of losers who have less nut than butt in a real face to face. Getting one's cookies by insulting others on the keyboard is the chat room juvenile's passtime.

NewYork frankie 16:48 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
shorted chfjpy 88.55 tp 88.40 all om this one.

GVI john 16:44 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
PLease lets keep to the markets

hk ab 16:44 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
There's nothing more interesting if euro close under 1.2380 today even the chance is very glimpse.

sp, are you around?

Athens 16:41 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Last brief comment for the week. Keep the CAD on separate watch from the contis as they are at different time cycle points. Have a good w/e everyone.

Dallas GEP 16:40 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Closed euro SHORTS

OPO MW 16:39 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Hello all, just a few coments...been reading the posts...and although there´s interesting comments...there´s a lot of people more interested in attacking each other than adding something valueable to the forum; shouldn´t this be a palce to talk about market?...I, for my self, read the comments because is a way of getting input for my tradings; we are talking here about money...not about spelling words or other kind of things....sorry...just really a comment
Good weekend all and GT

gold coast martin 16:28 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
houston ken 16:20 GMT October 15, 2004
Reasons why there is no move correlation of ossie with euro is the commodity markets levelling off,loss of appetite by japanese funds who were attracted by its interest differential,as the fear of not been able to exit in the their timeframe of choice....and also{FLIP brought it up} is the r De-listing of NEWCORP from the ASX to the NYSE in the next few months....g/t

gold coast martin 16:21 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 15:11 GMT October 12, 2004
nyc jk...it is working.....shame your fund was not on the list...g/t

BLUFF?...WRONG AGAIN

euro at 12485 and above does not ensure a 126+....MY VIEW ON EURO was formed at start of 2004 and will remain intact until that timeframe thus reflecting my position trade in that pair...

No more posts that are irrelevant to other FF participants,,,,

houston ken 16:20 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
can someone tell me whats the deal with aussie??

NewYork Frankie 16:20 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Right you are. My stop hit at 1.2460. Sorry all. Greenspan has the power to make a fool of you.

london iain 16:14 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
NewYork frankie 16:01 GMT October 15, 2004

I'd be a bit surprised, almost all have left this side of the pond. Maybe a few your side, but to take us higher today might be asking a bit much..

Bonn Karl 16:12 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 16:00 GMT .... careful, your bluffs are going to get the better of you. Since eur has traded over 1.2485 are you going to be bearish usd? Oh and by the way it's, zeig heil! and you should chant Zeig Bush.

nyc jk 15:54 GMT ;)
GOES B747 16:01 GMT ;)

NewYork frankie 16:01 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Ok, Euro next leg up is coming thanks to Greenspan. 1.2510 first.

GOES B747 16:01 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Karl, it is a joke for you and some USD for me:

Sold EURUSD 3,000,000 1.2505 0.00 1.2485 0.00 6,000 6,000 4,805 19-Oct-04 15-Oct-04 02:14:36 PM

no jokes about money with me...

gt and great weekend

Roumeli anka 16:00 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
cheking BC's statement with a commodity currency

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=27403&u=contrarian&a=contrarian%5C%27s&id=497

gold coast martin 16:00 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 21:26 GMT October 6, 2004
NYC JK...LOL...no martingale principle here....reason i ask is that i have info{actually internal memo} reffering to names and numbers of a large amalgamation of funders who have placed money in crude and the maturity date is a week away...i just need to tie all the loose ends before i act on it,,,as i dont trade it hence the question.....maybe your are on the list JK....LOL.....G/T

good trades to all

sgp sp 15:56 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Ahe,

Hong Kong Ahe 15:46 GMT October 15, 2004

Unfortunately I cannot, in good conscience claimed credit....I took an excerpt from bc's post....

gt 2 u.

HK Kevin 15:55 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai bc, good evening. In admist of the pressure from US govt on RMB appreciation, do you think the PRC govt would raise interest rate to buy time for developing a favorable environment before RMB float?

nyc jk 15:54 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
hey Karl, he bought GBP below the low the other day, I'm just surprised he didn't get them out at 1.2520 or thereabouts LOL.

Hong Kong Ahe 15:46 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
sp 15:23 GMT - What a good committee name!! wow, LOLRTHF.

Bonn Karl 15:46 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
joke of the day ....

GOES B747 15:22 GMT October 15, 2004
FYI: short EUR/USD @ 1.2505 filled

billy the kid reborn.

Van jv 15:42 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc - Good evening
EUR--before going for 1.29 still expecting to touch at least 1.21 support TL, dreaming?

Athens 15:39 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Finally the "double bluff" case mentioned last weekend has worked fine.

ICT ML 15:36 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
If you are a pure technical trader buy $CAD if closes above 1.2500 and fails to print a new low today for 1.3950 tgt over time possible, stop below 1.2475. Offset some of the risk by buying Eur$ with stop below 1.2450 if it closes above that today.

This goes gainst market sentiment but the R/R on a long $CAD from here is incredible whille current IMM positions ciould make staying short a risky proposition in the near term.

This trade would definitely not be for the risk adverse amongst us.

VloridA VV 15:36 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 15:29 GMT October 15, 2004
you're always on a different way :)

I have to be different from 95% of all traders to fit 5% successfull ones. ;))

houston st 15:35 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   

BC -- thanks for replying...nothing really negative to crater oil just yet, but there's no doubt that its overbought...needs a healthy pullback but may not see it until funds begin rolling their front month contracts into near months, unless Greenie or Snow do a hatchet job on it...#2 oil has the funds all bulled-up for now and it will keep the basket well bid for now, buying any dips...I'll put cheap usd/jpy on my shopping list to buy...good trades and a good weekend to you.

River Falls_USA_ PB 15:34 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
thoughtful post from IFR:
New York, October 15: With EUR/USD hovering near 1.2500, A fresh sector of the market may soon get involved in the trend to create a lower Dollar. There will be a fresh push from European corporates to hedge the growing coffers of overseas profits, denominated mainly in Dollars. In one example, German carmakers have been enjoying the stable
Dollar and were only willing to sell Dollar in the event of a slide in EUR/USD toward 1.1700/1.1800. Additionally, the downside breakout for the sideways Dollar range, will give a spark to the options market, always a favorite tool of the corporate sector. The final push for them could be a suggestion from Fed Chairman Greenspan that the rising oil prices will force the Fed to limit future interest rate hikes until the global commodity sector simmers down. It would all bode very ill for the Dollar and bring a long dormant area of forex customers
(corporates) back into a market run mainly by momentum traders and central banks over the last few months. [email protected]

Calcutta Vikram 15:29 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Sofia QIP 13:51 GMT October 15, 2004.....
Hello.
CHFJPY is up at 88.40 as compared to 87.80 about 4 hours ago, so Swissy has been the leader since the US came in today. HOWEVER, there's a big Resistance in CHF-JPY at 88.55, so maybe the Yen will take the lead from here. You may be right, and I thank for alerting me.

Budapest Daniel 15:29 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
you're always on a different way :)

shanghai bc 15:27 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   

ST -- Good evening..Still expecting the Crude Oil to have a good correction soon and the Dollar may get some support from it again short-term..All the numbers from US economy suggest things are really slowding down rather than picking up..Very disappointed at the speed of the move on Eur/Usd front since last week..Still buying Usd/Jpy for anything under 110..Good trades.

VloridA VV 15:26 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 15:23 GMT October 15, 2004
So do I ... now

Gen dk 15:25 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

sgp sp 15:23 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
bc,

LOL, HK, Shanghai and Singapore, same time zone...Maybe mom is chairperson of the "Forex market looks like a garden-party for retired folks these days" committee.

gt 2 u

Budapest Daniel 15:23 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
the funny thing about this that i nearly always follow somebody(s) on this forum, but i tend to think a little bit independently.

GOES B747 15:22 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
FYI: short EUR/USD @ 1.2505 filled; I closed the position @ 1.2485....going flat into the weekend; relaxing life is what I am after; so, I will see if I feel to trade during next week.

now, when I have something to lose; I will go easy, very easy further with short time positions...will work on taking greed away and will stick on JPY getting much stronger for the next months to come.

kind of back to basics !!!

gt all and have a great weekend !!!

VloridA VV 15:20 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 15:12 GMT October 15, 2004
Funny but I expect the same (1.25xx)

What so funny abt?
1.2450 is taken , 1,25 is just a lot of zumm zumm, next serious resistance is 1.2530-1.2570, and I think it may spike to 1.2670 before any serious correction next week

Eilat Dolphin 15:18 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
bc/ Sure Hong Kong works and Shangai gambles. Nothing new!

Livingston nh 15:17 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
US fixed income selling off a bit despite the weaker than expected data (retail sales and core PPI?) - this ahead of G'span who probably has more bad news for bonds - this speech is going to be late on a Friday trading day which is unusual and the Forex adjustments may get a little wild

houston st 15:13 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   

BC -- it only took 1 week after NFP but eur/usd finally got to 1.25 as you suggested...any thoughts on todays move, and also do you still like usd/jpy buys under 110.00? tia and have a great weekend.

Budapest Daniel 15:12 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Funny but I expect the same (1.25xx)

shanghai bc 15:11 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   

Mom,please go to bed now..It is very late in HK..Money is not as important as a good sleep..

Eilat Dolphin 15:10 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Mos-quito/ By visiting I meant being $ long, helping out of the Falluja war effort, the Hurricane post traumatic effect, the Debates fatigue...

Have a great time among them real peaks.

VloridA VV 15:09 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
VloridA VV 15:07 GMT October 15, 2004
Looks like you are in a hurry guys. 1.2450 has to be printed today

That should be read as 1.2550, Too much caviar this morning sorry.

VloridA VV 15:07 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Looks like you are in a hurry guys. 1.2450 has to be printed today

NewYork frankie 15:05 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
The modus operandi of this market recently has been to finish the day near the extreme reached ealier in the session. Furthermore, what reasons are there for buying dollars? Bad data today coming on the heels of the announcement of that huge budget and trade deficits yesterday. I think Bush must be dreaming if he thinks he can halve the budget deficit without a major dollar deprecication. I think Warren Buffet must be sitting pretty right now in anticipation of a further 5-10% depreciation of the dollar in the next few months

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 15:01 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
OK BB, me too, am out, I closed 1.2320 long @ 1.2480 for 160 pips minus bank's 5 pips = net 155 pips. Reason I closed in the face of a rising chart was: I hear there's a LOT of resistance by big money for 1.25 to sustain and level off to stability, hunch 50-50..dunno. Also, like yesterday, US news was not all that bad..about even actually..some goodies some baddies. US econ is actually same-same. So as the X2 news days hype "wears off", could short next week 100 pips. Have shorted €/usd now @ 1.2475 for the grind down. GEP's shorts should start to pay out soon. :^)

As far as a trend change in progress, could be the first day of it, (stretching things here!) the 3 yr chart doesn't have the pattern of a trend change yet unless we're talking UP trend (long) for this €/$ chart. To that I can agree as it has certainly broken out of the 1 yr triangle (albeit a littler sooner than my estimated pivot of Nov15ish) if indeed it has "broken out". Next 2 wks interesting. My gut says this move in 2 days is more US news event hype than actual US econ. My "booster" 2nd stage did fire tho, didn't it. Were it not for paranoid kneejerkers who don't understand US econ, I would never be able to long the pair!

GL, CUnextwk (rides off in the Andes morning mist to town-Dolphin, U can visit anytime amigo..have at it! My handle is my yahoo.)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:00 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:53 GMT October 15, 2004
GM..U agree with more on euro side? TIA

hk mom 14:56 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
jk, buy euros, simple enough?
But I take all the profits now. Another surprise is coming.
Just make it as flat as it can, no?

Livingston nh 14:53 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Anybody hearing or seeing USD/CHF selling by EU or swiss insurers on account of Spitzer?

SLC tg 14:53 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan at 12:00 EST

Dallas GEP 14:53 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Doesn't really matter what we think really, market is always right.

Ldn pm 14:49 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
PC Beach, FL Chris 14:34 GMT
From what I can ascertain it was not a report that prompted the move but the sheer weight of Usd selling into that brief Usd rally - talk 'real money', speculative players and momentum name players all piled in and look for a Usd breakdown perhaps towards 1.2650 during next week. Stops placed on a break back below 1.2380.

NewYork frankie 14:48 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Hi GEP, beg to differ. I think the Euro is just consolidating at this level before another leg up to primary target, then more consolidation at 1.25 as that becomes the accepted price. Then a final push to 1.2550. Then next week back down to 1.2?

VloridA VV 14:48 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Market is very rational though. If $ did not make a good bull run on a good data - That means any bad data will hammer the buck

Tokyo IM 14:47 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
And wrong was I ...

Tokyo IM 14:46 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
I think he speacks 14:30 GMT

cannes 14:46 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
look at the weeekly chart going back to 2001 ans then give me some reasons that the euro is cheap at that level
tkas

Budapest Daniel 14:44 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
can anyone pls. tell me when Greenie will speak?

VloridA VV 14:44 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
PC Beach, FL Chris 14:34 GMT October 15, 2004

Time (NYT) Description Forecast Previous
2004.10.15 10:00 US Aug Business Inventories 0.6% 0.9%
2004.10.15 09:45 US Oct Univ of Michigan Sentiment 94.5 94.2
2004.10.15 09:15 US Sep Industrial Production 0.4% 0.1%
2004.10.15 09:15 US Sep Capacity Utilization 77.5 77.3
2004.10.15 08:30 US Sep PPI 0.1% -0.1%
2004.10.15 08:30 US Sep Retail Sales ex autos 0.3% 0.2%
2004.10.15 08:30 US Oct NY Fed Manufacturing -- -- 28.3
2004.10.15 08:30 US Sep PPI core 0.1% -0.1%

Retail sales were better than expected
The rest worst or as expected
Michigan Sentiment was really bad.

Dallas GEP 14:43 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Ok my impression is euro and GBP both are struggling to maintain these levels. If NEW buyers don't come in these levels will fail.

USA Biscuit Boy 14:42 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Could do Frankie in which case I would expect it to be a slow grind with eur/chf having to fall.

ny amc 14:42 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
HOUSTON.....ST............calling HOUSTON ST. Yahoo me

hk mom 14:40 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Or it is: Follow gecko, wear diamonds.

NewYork frankie 14:40 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy, excuse the pun, but I don't think the big boys will leave any crumbs on the table today. 1.2510 for sure possibly 1.2550 IMHO

Bonn Karl 14:39 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
can't push this all the way, alone .... the cavalry will soon arrive .... la swissa residing at 1.2570 and 95

Tokyo IM 14:38 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Can somebody give an opinion about level of volatality next week ? It would be nice to hear ...

hk mom 14:38 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Why no people understand the principle: Simple is the beauty?

sofia mile 14:37 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
valdez-yesterday i asked you a question on the help forum.may i get an answer,please?

PC Beach, FL Chris 14:34 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
What report caused the EUR/USD to run up after the PPI numbers were released which sent the EUR/USD downwards initially?

USA Biscuit Boy 14:31 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Cheers Daimyo. Usd/chf met my 1.2320 boundary and reduced the probability of a sustained move above 1.25 for eur/$ according to my system.

Oakland daimyo 14:26 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 14:15 GMT October 15, 2004

Well done my friend. Floating profits mean nothing until their booked. I have found that trying to adjust limit orders (profit taking) is not a good choice (greed will get you hurt)

VloridA VV 14:26 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Kurt before joining somebody on this forum you have to do a lot of research. Pull out your long term charts and apply anybodie's comments on this forum to those charts. And if you follow Me and we lost - dont blame me cuz you dont pay anything and if you followed fullish advise that makes you a full 2 times.
Dont get dissapointed do your own game. This forum is for exchange of point of views and hooking up new traders - victims like you. Stay in the game and you will learn something.

Trading: - still long Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd. Will wait to 1.2590/1.2650 and 1.82/1.83 to cover/take profit

Eilat Dolphin 14:26 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Mos-quito/ I don't master enough of those complexities and unknowns to feel confident on a trend beyond short term. So my reasoning is built on territorials lines, and DEW Lines named Columbus, Cortez, Magellan, Armstrong.

Like when you reach the North Pole, no matter where you go, you are heading south. Right ?

1.25OX was a North pole for an hour or so... And after Greenspeak finishes his span, and if we do see 1.2538 or so - my hope, I'd love to spend the week end on your side of the Ridge.

NewYork frankie 14:25 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
I just can't see the euro going down from here, but in any case I have a stop at 1.2460

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:24 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
this a major turn around...
anyhow...if not I will be hurting...real bad

Plovdiv Gotin 14:23 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Euro next..1.2545/65.

Dallas GEP 14:23 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Pivot point on Euro is 1,2480 abd on GBP 1.8050

melb MA 14:22 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
I think we can all see it's a difficult market today ( well for me at least! ) by all the difference of opinions.

Holding my short EURGBP ( seems to be holding under 30 atm and safer way of going short EUR, which I think will come off further than GBP )

Dallas GEP 14:21 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
OK guys....stop running could be at play here. Euro and pound BOTH could pull back dramatically Be VERY VERY careful

NewYork Frankie 14:18 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
In fact, I think Euro will hit 1.2550 before any sizeable retracement. Shoot for the stars

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 14:18 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
BB//calling bank now..taking your example and Martin's advice will post my results in 10 min..

kl codain 14:18 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Oakland daimyo 14:04 GMT October 15, 2004

Thank you for the comment. Well, just expressing that from what i have... they will at the most touch the 2510 and retreat back to 2350 as a closing region for the week. Later next week, they will come up again testing strongly the 2510 res...

Not necessary what I said is true....

USA Biscuit Boy 14:15 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Target met Valdez I am out. GL and GT.

Budapest Daniel 14:14 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
so here is the eur sell :)

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 14:14 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Kurt, you didn't blow yourself up by following Biscuit and me and others who longed this puppy from the get go under 1.2350. Sorry however to hear.

I might add about the Fedspan speach in progress, I'll bet my shorts that no matter what he says it will be interpreted in opposite ways by a lot of people..this is where a man's words can be taken to mean both of two things. This could whip saw the chart again..Paranoids vs Intellect - Round II.

River Falls_USA_ PB 14:14 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Kurt Cobain 14:08 GMT October 15, 2004 ///don't understand post - who ordered you to "follow us guys"

NewYork frankie 14:13 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
bought Euro here at 1.2484 for 1.2510

Tokyo IM 14:13 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Kurt, that is normal, you have to deside for yourself and think before doing ...

nyc jk 14:09 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
cheers Gecko, nice calls.

Kurt Cobain 14:08 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
I blew myself up following you guys.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 14:07 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
The thing is Dolphin, Greenspan is viewed by US experts as not having a grip on the relation between oil and USD. This of course bleeds over onto the rate decisions. If Greenie dosn't get the relationship between oil and economy/inflation/USD buying power then what he will say in this half hour will serve as knee jerk indicator(s) for those who think Greenspan will either the Fed raise or not raise. Remember, Greenspan is NOT the dictator of the Fed, it is a panel, not a dictatorship. He is given the job as mouthpiece for the results of meetings albeit throws his weight around no doubt as well. Still holding my €/$ long,

Eilat Dolphin 14:07 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
MA/ Isn't it two hours?

van Gecko 14:05 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
"03:29 GMT October 15, 2004
Kiwi City, NZ Air Press Oct 15 7:11 AM -- New Zealand Dollar flight to .7100 update:
after lifting off from the .6450 intermediate attractor flight pad last month, the recent blast above .6700 had kicked in additional turtle power to fuel the high flying Kiwi. The next intermediate attractor along the geometric trajectory to .7100 is .6880
Looks like the New Zealand Dollar may be the 2nd major pair to take out the Dollar's year low after the front running Canadian Dollar. Nzd/Usd last quoted at .6828"


next minor attractor above .6880 is up at .6938..

jk.. don't know where mom came from, but mama bull & her C9 friends seems to be pulling off some good trades lately..

Chicago Goofy 14:05 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
I feel the show is not over yet. Watch the rest of the day.

Oakland daimyo 14:04 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
kl codain 13:55 GMT October 15, 2004

Too soon to make this comment. Don't allow your stops to be fuel for the 1.25 test. Be patient. If 1.2471 holds, we could easily see 1.25 test. This upmove has some weight behind it so positioning in front of current momentum/volume is not advised. Don't be greedy, wait for failure. As Linda Rascke advises, It's not enough to hit resistance, we must see failure before going the other way. The trend is your friend and I would not bet against it today. Not trying to talk you out, just be careful.

Eilat Dolphin 14:04 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ You Texan shooter!

melb MA 14:04 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
greenspan speach, is it 3 hours from now?

Dallas GEP 14:03 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Shorted EURo 1.2481

Eilat Dolphin 14:01 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
With Greenspan still to speak, we should see a 1.25OX in the coming couple of hours, and possible more afterwards, as he'll scare the oil out of us.

But the numbers start to be upper range already... That's the only thing I am waiting for, to go short after the big scare hits, possibly even at 1.2540...

USA Biscuit Boy 14:00 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Then sell it Bahrain hehe :)

Budapest Daniel 13:59 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, why?

GOES B747 13:59 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
13:58 GMT is here; the next 132 HRS of trading will not bring EUR/USD above 1.2510; just short, shrt and short again this pair.

gt all

Bonn Karl 13:59 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
have to sell more usd .... buying Cable here and that should help eur trade 1.2510 .... soon

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:57 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Traders...euro is a sell!!!

kl codain 13:55 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Selling....EURO......the signal is very clear..........2500 resistance unbeatable....

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 13:54 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
If you have not read GV's treasury forum quip about Greenspan's oil speach in Wash DC in a few minuites, go to Treasury Forum: GVI Jay 19:18 GMT October 13, 2004
Greenspan Drills For Oil (FXA)

"With Fed Chairman Greenspan set to discuss oil on Friday, and the price of crude posting record highs, some cursory review of the Chairman's views on oil from early this summer are overdue."

This was the first sentence, suggest you all read this prior to his oration from the rock. If he mentions rate policy at all consensus is that no rate hike in proximal future. Finally the man realizes hopefully his "soft spot" was a mud hole.

KL KL 13:53 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
out eurusd 1.2373 about+ 16 pips....wait now to knock it down

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:53 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
BB:
with all respect for your trading capabliites Tcehnically I don't see any...
other then a great short here...
Staying in a long position is just out..bb..this is imposibile..

Quebec Swap 13:52 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
melb MA 13:50 GMT

Mich Sent. 87.5

GENEVA FHR 13:51 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
UOM 87.5

Sofia QIP 13:51 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Vikram// Imho the yen pairs hold the conties fortunes against the USD today. Its the 3rd Friday that EUR and CHF are pushed up in a row since EoM. Still I am suspicious of a widening triangle on EUR daily and cautious - beware the Jubbsware ) Good Trades.

VloridA VV 13:51 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Consumer confidence 87.5
Too bad

GOES B747 13:51 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
it is 105/110pips daily range; VERY NORMAL !!!
range in tact is 1.2000-1.2500 and next week will make EUR/USD shorts to generate profits to all the way to 1.2220/50.

does not matter what data will come out today; 1.2510 will not break...I hope my language is clear enough to help all of you to make loads of money during next week (strting from 13:58 GMT today) !!!

gt

melb MA 13:50 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
anyone have uni of mich conf figures?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:50 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
I am getting ahead of the situation but if the bulls fail to take out the rumored barriers for the eur/usd pair there will be disappointment all around to the tune of a retracement to 2420-30, 2380-2390, 2350-60 and key support at 2320-30. The resistance and recent high of 6930 have capped the pair war for eur/gbp. That is why cable has not followed eur/usd with as much enthusiasm. Eur/jpy has not been able to break 136.15 resistance and looks a bit exhausted for now as a sharp pullback from the 136-136.15 levels have the bulls a bit tired for now. So what does all this mean? It means the bulls are running out of time to break new barriers and stick with it before an imminent pullback. No follow through has been the theme for most of the year so we will see if this carries through. One thing for sure the eur/usd pair has been in a bullish channel with in the range for almost two months and the play is still buy on dips for long term players IMHO. GL GT

Boston mdp004 13:47 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
short @ 2466, no SL yet..

USA Biscuit Boy 13:45 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
According to the platform stats it is not augering well for the dollar. No buy orders for eur/$ really until 200 pips away and most well short eur/$ with plenty averaging losses now and very very long usd/chf. It would seem most got caught short in the 1.22's and that is their break even point with all the orders lined up in that region. If this is the beginning of a new trend most missed it and confirms Athen's scenario at the beginning of the week.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:45 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Long for save your accounts.
Yes...The head lines today will just say that

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:43 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
More Maslow

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:42 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
if euro is buy...from this point I quit this

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:41 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
come on dudes Long....???
West bound of cursors now Ha?

Quebec Swap 13:40 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
We should see a break of 1.2490, I'll wait and see on economic #'s and and the close

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:38 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
euro...today 1.2340

nyc jk 13:37 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Freudian slip Gecko? appears to be the same person anyway.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:36 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
not only that short...it's a H of shorting time

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 13:36 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
BB// tks for the heads up on your platform data..post that when you have it pls. Burro's getting anxious. GC martin..check help forum a few days back, it was my turn to get a whuppin'. They take turns between all of us regulars...something to do while whining about margin calls. :^}

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:35 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
I urge long Euro "Good" Traders...to go 1.26...over the weekend...
we'll see the account next wed

River Falls_USA_ PB 13:35 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
fwiw - today's whipsaw: USD/CHF fells sharply after what traders are referring to as a "drive by" from a US fund. That is where a fund (or funds) call multiple banks with the same order and execute it simultaneously, causing a severe liquidity shortage in the market.

van Gecko 13:33 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
oops sorry.. should be mom..:))

van Gecko 13:33 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Gold making a beeline for $430.. Dollar @ 87.30 going sub 87.. the little Dollar Chf on verge of saying Good bye to uncle Sammy..
glad to of help ab.. cheerios..

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 13:32 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Martin, gottcha, tks on behalf of all of us (& el burro). I see my conservative 1.246x resistance is now under (rising) water..yer right. GT amigo, tks.

prague viktor 13:32 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito:Amigo..good data sell the usd bad data sell the usd..G/T mate this long from 1,232..

gold coast martin 13:30 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
1285=12485

sgp cc 13:30 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
saratoga sam - in Karl's defence, I saw another poster pointing out the incongruity of GC martin's posts.. and his reply was to imply the poster doesn't understand english and then start throwing other choice insults. I do give GC Martin extremely high points for consistency in his views. Whether that actually jibes with reality is another question....

USA Biscuit Boy 13:30 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain in 2 mins I will know if the majority of traders on my platform were stopped out on their USD longs or they are still averaging....will be a good clue as to how we move for the rest of the day I think.

gold coast martin 13:29 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 13:19 GMT October 15, 2004
If you had a limit of 12460 on your long possie....settle the burro and collect your profit ..market is too volatile ..changes from hour to hour....fund movement rather than data related fundamentals....not convince yet 125+ will be printed due to weak US fundamentals ..if it did it would stay over 125 and get to 128..but it is fund related it cancome back by 200-300 pips....cash in your cheque at the bank ..and monday is another day.....resistance of 1285 needs to be taken convincingly and to stay over that figure for 1 hour before tackling 12520 major resistance....g/t

Calcutta Vikram 13:28 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
And where would you project the Closing to be today for USDCH, Biscuit Boy? TIA

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:27 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
U Guys really sure will see 1.25?
Hmmm

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 13:27 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
mumbai Goldman 13:18 GMT October 15, 2004// USD pos data Good point for newer traders..almost always USD + data moves chart against USD. Sounds stupid..that's FX. Go with the flow, don't try to figure it out.. not all data was good.."industrial production" was slightly less than consensus. But if $ data is bad, chart moves against $, if good, chart still moves against $. In either case chart peaks, stabilizes a bit (5-10 hrs to 3-4 days then shorts. So, short it when it's peaked...don't fight FX.

Oakland daimyo 13:26 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
TA 101---Price action must be supported by tick volume or OBV, your time frame is a personal choice. I like hourly and daily. Price move up w/ volume moving up confirms uptrend. Price move up w/ volume below avg shows big dogs have left the building using specs to unload supply (profit taking) Its important to understand that big dogs must make a mkt before they can unload. They can't do it unless specs are buying. If specs are buying, who's selling? Who's got the bigger guns? Something to think about. Those who are sitting on profits from quick run up, good trades to you. Please note:I'm flat/ not talking my book.

Bonn Karl 13:26 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
me thinks eur will soon reach 1.2510

USA Biscuit Boy 13:25 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
My lower bound for usd/chf this week is 1.2320. Going to be harder to go lower than this today.

Calcutta Vikram 13:23 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Just an idea.....since EUR-CHF is looking quite bearish, selling $-Swiss might be more remunerative than buying Euro-$. Cheers

Sydney Alimin 13:23 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 13:20 GMT October 15, 2004

good on you mate, quick reaction there..but are you sure you are still trading in 1.23 handle? :)

GOES B747 13:22 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
mumbai Goldman 13:18 GMT October 15, 2004

my personal feeling is that bankers use FX markets to make their balance sheets to look better; there is no other field those days that they can play so dirty (they really played dirty today, but legal).
they used money of the mid-high income people (sick of the low returns but beleving that they are smart) to generate around 2B-3B profit during the last hour.

gt

USA Biscuit Boy 13:21 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Dow getting hammered, gold up, oil up, tough day for the dollar all around.

KL KL 13:20 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
wow that was quick drop now...move sl to 1.2383....6 pip gain for some kentucky tonight...never let a winning trade lose...I will let this run till next figure....many will be eating burnt chicken tonight...:) LOL

dc fxq 13:20 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
There you have it Mumbai

paris jb 13:06 GMT October 15, 2004
source IFR

Boston, October 15: One
of the more predatory hedge funds is being blamed for the raid on the greenback
which took EUR/USD more than a cent higher from its lows. EUR/USD reached 1.2485
before being capped by protection of 1.2500/10 barriers. Dealers marvel at the
ability of one or two accounts to turn the tide in the market.
1.2420 is now support on dips with little firm conviction among interbank
players at these levels. Most would like to fade rallies now, but are
understandably gun-shy. [email protected]/rs

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 13:19 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 13:11 GMT October 15, 2004
Yea, back to tradin'. I've got the "rogue pair" level off resistance pegged at 1.246x, what's your op amigo? TIA, GT.

mumbai Goldman 13:18 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
frnds can anybody update as to why the euro moved so much, despite good us data.....pls thnx

GOES B747 13:18 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
valdez,

I think that shorting UER/USD with s/l @ 1.2510 will pay great, what you think about that?

gt

KL KL 13:18 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
sold eurusd 1.2389..sl 15 above...what a day!!eat dust eur...

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 13:16 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Holy makeral BB, good job!

Never fails, when the chart moves people get nasty. Bonn Karl, this is the first time I've seen a Deutch poster since I've been here since last Spring. Welkom, be cool, maximize this forum resource for yourself and everyone else. :^] Alfv.

Bonn Karl 13:15 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
saratoga sam 13:11 GMT .... ask and you shall receive, what is it that you want to know ... tip sell USD

prague jv 13:15 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
We just have seen levels for next week range . gl

Gen dk 13:13 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

clonakilty glenn 13:13 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   

Karl I don't listen to anyone - I make my own judgments

Good call Flip

Oakland daimyo 13:12 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Flip--specs will never learn---however, blowing up their account will teach them. Let mkt decide for you. If we get range b/o, it will be obvious @ the close. We will get a chance to buy on dips. Be patient. Who will win. Option players or momentum guys? Time will tell. This business is not for the emotional or the faint of heart.

gold coast martin 13:11 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Joburg tl 13:08 GMT October 15, 2004
YES i do ...he just selectively cuts and pastes...besides cant be f...d dealing with imbeciles....call me arrogant but it is the best medicine with people like that......thats the end ..back to trading....

saratoga sam 13:11 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Bonn, Karl you should not be so quick to attack when you have contributed nothing with your 5 posts...Good weekend everyone.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:10 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Oakland daimyo 12:56 GMT October 15, 2004
Good observation there is also a rumored barrier around the 2500 area for eur/usd. A break of 2460-80 main resistance has not happened yet although we have been in a bullish channel since the beginning of September this might be a good time to bust the resistance and get this bullish train going again. Intraday indicators are bullish but in O/B area. Mid term indicators are bullish and long term indicators are also bullish IMHO. GL GT

Helsinki iw 13:10 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: 1,2480/90 is still holding and short term charts are quite o/b, but a daily close above this would target the 1,29++ highs again. So be careful of reversals, it being a Friday as well. IMHO

USA Biscuit Boy 13:10 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Good morning guys. Hi Valdez yes still short USD. Take profit target above 1.25 this week mate. My weekly range 1.2240-1.2580.

Bonn Karl 13:10 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 13:06 GMT October .... BOJ not going to intervene .... usd/jpy next 108.35/20.

Dublin Flip 13:08 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Relax guys. It not a competition between each other (like 5year olds peeing up a wall) but with yourself.
If you have opinions you'll be right and wrong at some stage. If you don't have opinions you are in the wrong business.

hk mom 13:08 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
buy some usd/jpy 109.03

Joburg tl 13:08 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 12:57 GMT October 15, 2004

Why don't you drop the silly remarks and rather give a proper answer? Seems to me, him digging up a past remark of yours which on the face of it speaks of poor judgement is perfectly valid. But then you may also have a perfectly valid explanation.

hk mom 13:07 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
now, no more 1.2415 cheap euros.
added 1.2448 instead.

KL KL 13:06 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
ok in long usdjpy 1.0889 sl 10 below B O J magic hands triggered!!

Bonn Karl 13:06 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
clonakilty glenn 12:59 GMT .... no offense .... but if you listen to that eternal US dollar bull .... you'll go broke.

paris jb 13:06 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
source IFR

Boston, October 15: One
of the more predatory hedge funds is being blamed for the raid on the greenback
which took EUR/USD more than a cent higher from its lows. EUR/USD reached 1.2485
before being capped by protection of 1.2500/10 barriers. Dealers marvel at the
ability of one or two accounts to turn the tide in the market.
1.2420 is now support on dips with little firm conviction among interbank
players at these levels. Most would like to fade rallies now, but are
understandably gun-shy. [email protected]/rs


gold coast martin 13:05 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Bonn Karl 13:01 GMT October 15, 2004
cannot close my demo yet...it still has enough profit to run luxemburg...dont assume what you dont know.....

Bonn Karl 13:01 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 12:57 GMT .... sorry to have hit you where it hurts .... LOL

Time to close your demo account.

clonakilty glenn 12:59 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   

Dream on Karl - my eur/jpy short means I'm even - come back after 12 months and show us you're still in the game mate - and don't make assumptions about the size of my account

GOES B747 12:58 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Alimin,

some how the 1.2510 had more power than most of us taught.
did you read me mentioning the t/p that heavy European players placed ???

the way just openned for 1.2250/80, imo !!!

gt

Oakland daimyo 12:56 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
traders must think like mkt makers as they are the true competition. This looks like a classic bull trap in EUR/USD. I for one would love to see this bloody range taken out but what's more likely, range or b/o. I would say range (far more profitable for mkt makers)

KL KL 12:56 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
out eurjpy + 28 pips at 135.87...looking now for another bait!!

HK [email protected] 12:56 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Gold bears are trying hard to beat down prices...Likely gold will touch 421.

Bonn Karl 12:55 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
One of Martin's famous predictions.
Gold Coast martin 10:54 GMT May 6, 2004
Does any one in their right mind expect oil to breach the 40 range and stay there in the short term?

Yes clonakilty glenn 12:46 GMT .... be patient .... and your account will soon be wiped out.

LOL LOL LOL

Sydney Alimin 12:54 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
well, euro can't do it alone, aussie didnt really help, gbp didnt' really help...

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 12:53 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
I could not agree more..real move hasn't matured yet. These boys must have a real zest for making pips today.
Just remember to let this mature before shorting. Using 30 day chart looks like to me 1.260-80 is going to be called new resistance.

Oakland daimyo 12:52 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
watchout for left hand---when everyone is on the right, dealers have no choice, there not in the business of losing money----function of imbalanced order books---they will not allow everyone to win against them.

Auckland 12:52 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Big sharks in shallow water...
Good longs but 50/60 pips missing ....

hk ab 12:52 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
nt, did you take any eur/jpy short?

KL KL 12:51 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Down it comes again to collect more stops ...this train making 2 trips today....use momentum to collect!! sold eurjpy136.15 sl 10 above for quick a loss...hehe..staying out of usd crosses for the moment

hk mom 12:48 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Hey, take it easy.
eur extremely bargaining price is now at 1.2415.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 12:48 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
..A 115 PIP hungry whipsaw stop eater.and it is still lurking, still taking out long stops just placed. The bulls are rabid (and I hid all the vaccine).

Sydney Alimin 12:47 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
stops clearing both sides before the real move, i am watching now, no more possie

gold coast martin 12:47 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   


clonakilty glenn 12:46 GMT October 15, 2004

Be patient....

dc fxq 12:47 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Maybe I'll try an "honest" game, like street corner 3 card Monte.

Eilat Dolphin 12:47 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Anyone feels like a sardine fallin from the Empire State?
A parachute seems to be provided half way down...
But will it open ?

clonakilty glenn 12:46 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   

martin - don't get me wrong mate I hope you're right - I'm short!

london 12:46 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
we are but pawns in their game.

Gen dk 12:44 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Oakland daimyo 12:44 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
careful people--do not get emotional--- C.O. is very active---lots of data today---wait for mkt to settle down

hk mom 12:44 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
euro bulls, don't take profit too early.
With gecko's help, fx made easy.

gold coast martin 12:44 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
clonakilty glenn 12:42 GMT October 15, 2004
Same bugger that is pulling it back ....

dc lurker 12:44 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
What a total crap shoot this market has become.

HK [email protected] 12:43 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Dollar ist Scheiße gegangen!!!

clonakilty glenn 12:42 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   

martin - some bugger wants it there !

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 12:42 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
all that dip was just to take out stops and for paranoids without a brain to trade down. poking around at the belly of 1.25...I'm home. Biting buttons off my executive chair that we'll stay in orbit til 14:30. (Valdez saddles up the burro for a quick trip to the village) Damit BB I hope you still have those longs. TALK TO ME.

hk mom 12:42 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Remember, Buy euros wear diamonds.

Sydney Alimin 12:42 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
stops hit, well done to euro bulls

London HC 12:41 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Any news?

slv sam 12:41 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Now I am a believer of the conspiracy theory! have a nice weekend!GT

HK BD 12:40 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
EBS USDJPY low today please?

Budapest Daniel 12:40 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
WWWOOOOOOOOOOOWWWW Lots of money :D

hk mom 12:40 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
COOL!

GOES B747 12:39 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
waiting for 1.2397....got it.../// 1.2407 also touch...off trading for today with EUR/USD...enough profit for me.

gt all

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 12:39 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 12:36 GMT October 15, 2004
LOL. Idiots will "buy" that info, peole with a brain won't. That's why the chart is at 1.24+ amigo. I'm beginning to think Pravda is a better news source than US gov.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:39 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Eur PT should be around 1.2340

Pecs Andras 12:38 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Empire State Survey Falls to 17.4 from 27.3]

hk mom 12:38 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Buy more euros 1.2380.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:37 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
wow

gold coast martin 12:37 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Rather than EURO WEAKENING data this data is DOLLAR DEFENSIVE that has again confirmed that no one wants the euro at 125+.......g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 12:37 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Sept PPI +0.1%
Sept retail Sales +1.5%
October Empire17.4 vs. 27.3 in September
0.6% autos
NOT BAD NEWS

Pecs Andras 12:36 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
PPI Up 0.1% in Sept, Stronger +0.3% on the Core]

Rio CV 12:36 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Retail Sales in U.S. Jump 1.5 Percent; Excluding Autos Climb 0.6 Percent
Sales at U.S. retailers rose 1.5 percent in September, the most in six months, led by spending on automobiles and general merchandise.

Producer Prices in U.S. Rise 0.1 Percent; Core Rate Increases 0.3 Percent

Livingston nh 12:36 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
these morons in the gov have energy prices dropping 0.9% last month - PPI +0.1% (core =0.3%)

Pecs Andras 12:36 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Retail sales up 1.5%, much better than exp.0.6%

GOES B747 12:35 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
blocked with s/l 25pips @ 1.2390 (BID), placed short @ 1.2397 with s/l @ 1.2407.

the good news for me are that it will noy be losing day :-)

gt all

jkt-aye 12:35 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
retail sales +1.5 % ... stronger than expected

dc fxq 12:34 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Retail Sale +1.5%
PPI +0.1, core +0.3
Empire State 17.45

Eilat Dolphin 12:34 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
cv/ Generali USD bullish some.

Bahrainw Within 10 Pips 12:34 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/Yen_Past_perfomace.gif
Yen short Term performance of model VS. Actual

At least don't mess with it

Sydney Alimin 12:33 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
bringing stop to B/E, i won't say anything, let the trade proves it

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 12:33 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
taking out stops on long possies..whip saw city.

Rio CV 12:31 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
data????

Gen dk 12:30 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 12:29 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
looks like "rogue pair" is chomping at the bit on anticipation of = or bad news last 3 hrs...even if news is good, historically USD suffers 1-3 days then the chart shorts fast. I look for a very nice short after peak. Too bad this 2nd day of US data is on a friday.

hk mom 12:29 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
heehee, buy euros wear diamonds today.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:27 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/Yen_Past_perfomace.gif
Yen short Term performance of model VS. Actual

GOES B747 12:27 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 12:24 GMT October 15, 2004

Thank you sir, I see that insider like yourself suggests 1.2540/45 as the price @ 12:31 GMT...we will see !!!

gt

Sydney Alimin 12:26 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
everyone has stated their opinions, now let's just focus to the numbers and market's reaction

Pecs Andras 12:25 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Guys
USD/CAD is grinding north all day. Does it not suggest that EUR and other majors should start going south soon?

HK [email protected] 12:24 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 12:20 GMT October 15

Good if you can have your s/l executed !!!

Wish you the best.

london iain 12:22 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 12:10 GMT October 15, 200

meant previous comment for you mate.

london iain 12:21 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
couldn't agree more.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 12:20 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
GEP// Shorts?
Biscuit..are all/part of those 1.22xx €/$ longs still in place or did you close yesterday?

GOES B747 12:20 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 12:17 GMT October 15, 2004

TRUE !!! /// EDX and DEX expiry today made my guts (and money) to short EUR as mention in previous post.
imo, USD is today's joker until NY session will close; as long my s/l @ 1.2518 (BID) will not hit I am very sure that the shorts will pay me good before NY close.


gt all

JHB CDB 12:19 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 12:16 GMT October 15, 2004

Thank you once again for the confirmation.

gold coast martin 12:19 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Since we have 3 time spans between all data releases{including greenspans speech} any upward momentum will be negated by the time span and it may not be enough to break 12485 range or take out big stops at 12450 and 65...g/t

HK [email protected] 12:17 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 12:14 GMT October 15,

This market can eat all the jockers one by one and all at once.

Tallinn viies 12:16 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
london iain 11:09 GMT - turned bullish because all my indicators pointed to downside but euro didnt even give us hourly corrections. something is cooking here (maybe).

about elections: read an analyses one day where study said that election years first quaters are below average volatility and last Q after elections gives higher volatility than average volatilty per year.
we have 2-3weeks to the elections, and days are counting down. sonmething got to happen soon

slv sam 12:16 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
look at us$/cad and we can read what is going to happen to euro soon!GT

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 12:16 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
JHB CDB 12:00 GMT October 15, 2004// Why don't I take my profit now?
1. I have since 1996 traded strictly in spot cash. no leverage. Bank FX office opens at 1400-14:30, I can't trade 'til then.
2. My confidence level for 1.2450 is higher than yesterday for some reason (hunch likely) since technicals and fundamentals are just about worthless right now. That's why I didn't take profit of 80 pips yesterday.
3. When I "sell Euros" I automatically buy USD. I wanted to wait for this AM to optimize my new position.
4. In retrospect, tactically I should have sold 1/2 my Euros yesterday, saving other 1/2 for later. Usually I do this. I make a trading plan with 1-3 positions...this time it was with only one. My burro figured this method out and winks his eye when it's time to trade.

Dallas GEP 12:14 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
I have had sell order in for eur/gbp @ 6897 for quite some time No fill yet. I also have a small number of eur/usd shorts working

GOES B747 12:14 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 12:10 GMT October 15, 2004

those holding the joker NEVER let you feel that !!!

gt

Sydney Alimin 12:12 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
london iain 12:09 GMT October 15, 2004

anything can happen on fridays mate, good luck

GOES B747 12:11 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
short EUR/USD @ 1.2415 activated.

placed short orders @ 1.2433/51/69/87/05 full s/l @ 1.2518 (BID).

gt all

slv sam 12:11 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 12:05 GMT /
in fact I have no position my self! I was stating my strong opinion. I have already tied all my resources and sold $/y! but I can wait till year end for my target in $/y!GT

HK [email protected] 12:10 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
COMMON SENSE. Not too much Res. is left (on daily basis) to 1.2926 once 1.2460 will be breached. Look the chart. Is it so or not?

london iain 12:09 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 12:01 GMT October 15, 2004

Eur move smacks of an attempt to break to the upside. Positioning pure and simple. If eurusd was at 1.2360/70, say, it would take a dreadfull set of numbers to get enough momentum to challenge the stops. Up here, though, and there should be far more interested parties on any dissapointing news.

hk mom 12:08 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Go euro.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 12:08 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
The event coming up in 2 hours is what I term a biggie. Greenspan's last go-round with oil vs this go-round may yield important information re USD. See the Treasury Forum to get the analysis...good read.

747//we're getting into political forum material here so let's not debate it on the FF..US data about to release. I agree, gifts from social systems are debatable, have never impressed me (i.e. USA's "perpetual vacation" 3rd generation welfare system) yet some form of temp help is needed. You're correct...expensive; offers little incentive to work at competitive wages. USA simply "lets" Latinos cross the border to work for $3/hour while paying $7.75/hr for lazies to go fishing or drug sprees on their welfare checks & sell food stamps to by booze. In Ecuador, if you don't work, you don't eat. Everyone works. I like that.

Antwerp Tom 12:07 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Entered € long 1.2413 SL 1.2345 GL to all (contradictio in terminis)

LA fxnew 12:07 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
auckland:
yes .. still trapped with cable short

WASH DC SRQ 12:06 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Where's cable heading guys?

Sydney Alimin 12:05 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
slv sam: good luck to both of us! everyone seems to be very bullish on euro

GOES B747 12:04 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
hi alimin,

too many European players targetted 1.2485/90 as t/p for today; I think that 1.2510/25 is safer.
imo, the position will pay great within 7days and if it will go crazy today than re-short above 1.2470 (say upto 1.2485/95).

gl & gt

HK [email protected] 12:03 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Indeed the 200-daily s.m.a for Euro is slopping down 1.2460 looks like an ideal Res.

If that Res. breaks, one may throw the charts out of the window.

Sydney Alimin 12:01 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
entered euro short 1.2412 stop loss 1.2470, target open or by the close of NY today, i dont see any reason why euro should be up here yet, i would humbly take my loss if numbers later prove me wrong!

JHB CDB 12:00 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito"

Why do you not take your profit now before the Econ news ?

Ldn 11:58 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Crude oil futures were down in early Friday trading, but still hover around the $50 a barrel mark,

Auckland 11:58 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 11:53 GMT October 15, 2004
Did you go short "cabel" couple days ago??

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 11:57 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Holding €/$ long @ 1.2320. Will call bank likely @ 14:00 GMT once dust cleared per econ news, intention: buy USD. Must see what erupts.

Today's cheat sheet es=estimate pr=previous

USD Prod.Price Indx (MoM SEP) 12:30 es=0.1% pr=-0.1%
USD Prod.Price Indx (YoY SEP) 12:30 es=3.3% pr=3.4%
USD PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM SEP) 12:30 es=0.2% pr=-0.1%
USD PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY SEP) 12:30 es=1.8% pr=1.5%
USD Advance Retail Sales(SEP) 12:30 es=0.7% pr=-0.3%
USD Retail Sales Less Autos(SEP) 12:30 es=0.3% pr=0.2%
USD Empire Manufacturing(OCT) 12:30 es=25.00 pr=28.34

CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM AUG) 12:30 es=1.0% pr=0.5%
CAD New Orders (MoM) (AUG) 12:30 es=-0.2% pr=1.4%

USD Fed Kohn Speak: on ECB Mon. Panel in Germany 12:30
USD Industrial Production (SEP) 13:15 es=0.4% pr=0.1%
USD Capacity Utilization (SEP) 13:15 es=77.5% pr=77.3%
USD U. of Michigan Confidence (OCT P) 13:50 es=94.5 pr=94.2
USD Business Inventories (AUG) 14:00 es=0.7% pr=0.9%
USD Fed. Greenspan Speaks on Oil in Washington 16:00

GOES B747 11:55 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
hi valdez, the European social system is backing the unemployed with guaranteed income of (EUR 1’800 /// USD 2’500 @ 1.4) to pay his mortgage and feed himself and the family.
Sorry, but there is no enough business to pay for this; sorry that I am so simple and I cannot say that on a fancier manner; but letting to be a student upto the age of 40 and paying for that makes no good to the economy.
EU needs more money to pay for it’s social system while the people work (earn) less; I cannot imagine a lie that can cover this reality from blowing up.

gt


LA fxnew 11:53 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
cable is making a new high ..
target 7850 still valid?

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 11:48 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Hi 727, Respectfully, world economy does not work in unison if countries or regions are "brought to their knees". You'll find in studying economy on world level that it all works together. If one region is having difficulties normally the other regions which are prospering take measures to put equalizing forces to work. So if Europe drops to it's knees, who would buy the rest of the world's products and services? So you see, if one side goes down, the other side MUST support it or the entire world econ will collapse. Ponder that if you will amigo.

GOES B747 11:41 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
no one paid attention to wave of strikes around Europe; looks it will become 'breaking news' while EUR will go down.
also, no attention about official German protection (backed by laws!) against possible forigen takeover of VW.
the list is long, very very long; but,this have to pay good for US and Asia to bring Europe down on knees by pushing the EUR so high; European economy (the original 15 except Spain and Portugal) stopped, it is halted....it will be painful, very painful.


gt

Gen dk 11:35 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GOES B747 11:34 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:29 GMT October 15, 2004

it is very good idea if market will not touch 1.2490/95; I beleive that playing for short upto 1.2490/1.2495 with s/l @ 1.2510/15 will pay better (at least the same).

will play the same for EUR/JPY upto 136.35/40 and shorts USD/JPY upto 109.65/70

gt all

HK [email protected] 11:32 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Do not worry for Euro. After the (-)54B Trade balance+ oil prices, much depends on the stock market. A continued drop in the Dow, will undermine the chances of Bush to be reelected(what is the worst nightmare for an american, if not a drop in his savings) so the chances for the Americans is likely to get a French-like
president by the name Monsieur John Kerry, which will really add to the dollar drop.

Manchester Daniel 11:31 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Thanks London iain and Glasgow Geo - I had 16:00gmt too, but just wanted to confirm. GL today - trade safely

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:29 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
I suggest u make orders (10 lots to short euro)...
each with 5 pips diff..
from 1.2410 to 1.2460

paris jb 11:28 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
hi traders

hk mom 11:25 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
But today special is buy eur/chf in now 1.5419

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:23 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/Eur_Friday.gif

hk mom 11:23 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Hurray, euro just broke 1.24 firm now.

london iain 11:18 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Manchester Daniel 11:10 GMT October 15, 2004

feeling like a talking clock today. Greenspan is talking on oil at:
17.00 BST
16.00 GMT
12.00 EST (NY time)

boomtown ON 11:16 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
at the moment, according the triangle in the euro we've got a buy entry at 1.2430 and a sell entry at 1.2345 each for a potential of 50 pips.
The cable patern, which is in an acsending channel, should follow the euro with entry levels of 1.8010 and 1.7940.
Both positions could be used with a 20 pips S/L.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 11:13 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 10:54 GMT October 15, 2004
You may probably get a better risk:reward of you took your posn. around 19th opening price. Next week my view also bullish eurusd, but the target all depends on what opening price on monday is. As I said yesterday, if eurusd closes 1.2370-1.2390 or above, then a better possibility of 1.2500 next week to 2 weeks is pssible.

of course, all IMVHO.

TIA:-)

HK [email protected] 11:12 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Once Euro breaks above 1.2406...1.2455/60 is almost certain.
Gold may add 2 more $$$ tonight, so Euro may reach that target.

london nh 11:12 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
long from just under 1.23..i will cut myself out if we see eurusd below 1.2345 again not here...no reason. wait if we see a test of yesterdays high this afternoon if not it will continue in this range??????? a double hit

slv sam 11:11 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Texas(Jksn.) PNB 11:08 GMT /
observation! we shall see!GT

Manchester Daniel 11:10 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Please confirm (NY time) what time is Greenspan speaking today about oil - I am getting conflicting times. Thanks

london iain 11:09 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 10:54 GMT October 15, 2004

why turn bullish ahead of massive resistance, whilst also taking a decent hit? I'm bullish, but we are essentially at the top of the range and I'm gambling on a range breakout. I think there's every chance we turn around and head back down into the abyss that is this godforsaken range - then you'll be twice out of pocket?? Risky business!

Sofia rocco 11:08 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Gecko - thank u. GL>

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 11:08 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 10:54 GMT October 15, 2004
...And your presuming that on what basis may I ask? Fridays are known to have spikes I agree, but I just wanted to know if your view was based on some analysis.


TIA:-)

Antwerp Tom 11:05 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Hi Viies, what makes you think the € will long that you took such a loss? GL GT

Budapest Daniel 10:56 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
This eur/usd always climbs 10-20 pips during ~7:30 till ~8:15 EST. Mosquito was right...

Tallinn viies 10:54 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
covered my short position with 70 pips loss and turned long on euro now.
stop at 1,2320. fwiw target 1,2455/60 first and then my primary target at 1,2490/1,2500.
good luck

slv sam 10:54 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
I still believe euro will close under 1.23 tonight!!GT

NYC usdOUTLAW 10:48 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
martin --- i guess i am the mike malfy of Harlem ... censored needs me

NYC usdOUTLAW 10:47 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Juan --- why the censored am I listening to your wedge bulldunk the USD/CHef was in a wedge and it just broke down while on the flip side the EUR/USD broke out from its wedge ... man never listening to dirty mexs again got me all psyched up in this short for nothing

gold coast martin 10:45 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
NYC usdOUTLAW 10:40 GMT October 15, 2004
...this is refreshing....we have an anal...ist from Harlem....

NYC usdOUTLAW 10:44 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
BAM the EUR/USD is coming in ... the wedge will not be defeated ... looking at ADX indicators is like looking at god himself and all his glory ... scary stuff

NYC usdOUTLAW 10:41 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
hush juan... I guess you do have a day job but I still have a better chance at renting an apartment

NYC usdOUTLAW 10:40 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
ss- yes indeed the wedge is my biotch ... however enuf of that silliness, I see a sell off back to the 80s b4 the number just for profit taking purposes, and then BAM US #s and BAM usd falls off the face of the earth

big apple juanhernandez 10:38 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
this guy think he is emeril or something? he needs to get a day job. I bet he listens to madonna all night while he trades. Dissing the ADX is not wise.

NYC usdOUTLAW 10:38 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
its like a prayer , i'll take you there cuz im illin

Los Angeles ss 10:37 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
usdoutlaw -- since you own the wedge, where are you going to head eurusd for the next hour??

NYC usdOUTLAW 10:37 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
bam the wedge , bam ur mom, bam i own the EUR/USD, bam ... bam.... bam

NYC usdOUTLAW 10:35 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD wont break it because of the wedge...dont mess with the wedge ... ADX is god

BDQ 10:33 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD is showing signs of breaking 1.2400

Los Angeles ss 10:29 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
BDQ -- 15 pips away from break even, hoping it will come down in the next two hours then I'll bail, or it will hit my stop and I'll be out. Prefer the break even scenario.

BDQ 10:28 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
6.29 in NYC

NYC usdOUTLAW 10:28 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
he is probably doing that right now BDP

BDQ 10:26 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   

"Los Angeles ss 09:39 GMT October 15, 2004
Thanks Gep, I'm still holding my eurusd from earlier today, thinking it would get into the 1.2350's, but this thing just won't budge from the currenct range. Driving me nuts watching it go nowhere. Been hovering around 1.2390 for the last hour, so hopefully it's getting ready to break for the downside."

why don't u close ur position at breakeven and wait for the market to move. Currently the USD is going down.

NYC usdOUTLAW 10:24 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
it is now 6:25 in new york

BDQ 10:22 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
right now its 6.23 in NYC

NYC usdOUTLAW 10:22 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
yeah Juan in your face ... the wedge was defeated!!! ADX indicators are good for nothing buttafukka

NYC usdOUTLAW 10:20 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
oopps the CHeF broke support not resistance and just like that it came right back ... do it do it do it

Dallas GEP 10:20 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Closed AUSSIE shorts @ .7287

Eilat Dolphin 10:19 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
BDK/ 6 hours, almost.

Anyone would have the guts to go long on oil around the actuals ?

NYC usdOUTLAW 10:19 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
new high EUR/USD yeah!!!! party party!!! party party!!!! the wedge was defeated!!!! The USD/CHeF broke resistance!!!!!

i made some pips!!!

van Gecko 10:19 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
rocco.. 1.82/84 s/t, 1.88/92 m/t
theres market lagging underlying shortie KITA kinetics building beneath her Majesty's 'obvious weakness'.. cheers

BDQ 10:18 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
so greenspan speaks in approx 3 hrs [2 hrs 45 min to be exact]

hk mom 10:17 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
See euro is bullish Now.

gold coast martin 10:15 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 10:10 GMT October 15, 2004
unlikely today ab as the upward movement of the yen wil be coming from JAP FUNDS...let the yen move with someone elses money....g/t

NYC usdOUTLAW 10:15 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF broke short term intraday support @ 1.2438 looking for it to break overall intraday support @ 1.2330 ... & then we are going down baby ... taking the CHeF downtown to chinatown

big apple juanhernandez 10:13 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
those censored childs sold it to Moisha Goldberg...I think they shut the door on my because I am Mexican..its messed up. I am going to stay with Gram Wellington while I settle the law suit.

Auckland 10:13 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
BDQ 10:08 GMT October 15, 2004
can anyone post time in GMT for non-us members?

Check my last mail all time in "GMT"

london iain 10:12 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
BDQ 10:07 GMT October 15, 2004

BST = british summer time. GMT is one hour behind.

Eilat Dolphin 10:12 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
BDQ/ Have a look at the 10:04, Aukland... if that ain't Greenwhichspan...?

Los Angeles ss 10:12 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
BDQ -- Greenspan speech is at 9 am New York time, 1600 GMT.

london iain 10:11 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
gmt = 1600hrs

Haifa ac 10:10 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Retail sales and PPI-if bonds are NOT bluffing--they expect weak numbers!

hk ab 10:10 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Martin, do you think BOJ will come to visit us again at 109 today?

NYC usdOUTLAW 10:09 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
juan---they are not showing your commercial on cnbc anymore!!

did you finally get that apartment??

BDQ 10:08 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
can anyone post time in GMT for non-us members?

Mtl JP 10:07 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan is scheduled to speak on "oil" at a luncheon

BDQ 10:07 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
if greenspan would speak at 16.00 EST then the US market would have closed!

london iain 10:06 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan speaks on "oil" @ 17.00hrs bst.

big apple juanhernandez 10:06 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
usd weakness backup..if last months data is any indication..we had negative prints in both PPI, PPI ex, and retail sales headline...expectations for positive numbers across the board, esp .7 retail from -.3 (mom) seems lofty. Consumer confidence also expected to be flat mom..a negative suprise from pressure at the pump seems like a real possibility here.

NYC usdOUTLAW 10:05 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
greenspan? who is greenspan...i never heard of this greenspan...are they some thin like greenpeace? wait oh yeah he is the guy who lost all of his fund's money and now makes decisions for US economic policy

Auckland 10:04 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
15-Oct-2004 12:30 Producer Price Index MoMUS Sep 0.1% -0.1%
15-Oct-2004 12:30 PPI Ex Food & Energy MoMUS Sep 0.2% -0.1%
15-Oct-2004 12:30 Advance Retail SalesUS Sep 0.6% -0.3%
15-Oct-2004 12:30 Retail Sales Less AutosUS Sep 0.3% 0.2%
15-Oct-2004 12:30 Empire Manufacturing US Oct 25.00 28.34
15-Oct-2004 13:15 Industrial ProductionUS Sep 0.4% 0.1%
15-Oct-2004 13:15 Capacity UtilizationUS Sep 77.5% 77.3%
15-Oct-2004 13:50 Univ. of Michigan ConfidenceUS Oct P 95.0 94.2
15-Oct-2004 14:00 Business InventoriesUS Aug 0.7% 0.9%
15-Oct-2004 16:00 Fed Chairman Greenspan speaks

Plovdiv Gotin 10:02 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Will Greenspan speak today and wat time?Thanx

Gaza Ibiza 10:02 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Martin? What Jewish Palestinian problem?

Gen dk 10:01 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

gold coast martin 10:00 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Gaza Ibiza 09:54 GMT October 15, 2004
Please take the Jewish/Palestinian problem to the political forum....otherwise we may see both nationalities in Mecca on ramadan when the oil runs out and we have a new US president....hope you like mushroom clouds.....lol..
Seriously its hard enough to trade FX than to trade insults...g/t

JHB CDB 10:00 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
NYC usdOUTLAW

I see, thank you for your response.

hk ab 09:59 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
nt, if I missed this h-e-l-l eur/jpy selling opportunity, I will buy it at the other end rather.

NYC usdOUTLAW 09:58 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
JHB CDB -- i dunno mebbe oil inflation? or bad michigan sentiment? or bad PPI? all linked too a recent poor jobs report and increase in oil prices plus the real possibilty of no rate hikes from now till the end of the year ... I mean no one has hired me in a year ... thus I trade forex =)

Budapest Daniel 09:55 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
chill down guys

Budapest Daniel 09:51 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
I hope eur/usd will go down before the data since I'm holding a short position since yesterday...

hk mom 09:49 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Don't wait, buy all the nzd and eur/jpy and eur/gbp as well.

JHB CDB 09:48 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
NYC usdOUTLAW 09:42 GMT October 15, 2004
no one expects usd weakness going into the numbers in 2 hours??

Why do you have this perception?

Dallas GEP 09:48 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
OK like I said, eur/jpy shorts putting some DOWNWARD pressure on EUR/USD at the same time that EUR/GBP longs are putting some UPWARD pressure on Eur/usd causing a stalemate of course BUT eur/gbp is topping presently

cebu praetorian 09:46 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
good day traders!

Dallas GEP 09:45 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
MArtin, I do AGREE with your assessment RE: usd/jpy That PAIR could be the exception

KL KL 09:45 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
ok can't wait anymore short 1.2392 sl 10 above...figured this is the weakest of the currency at this short moment....take 20 pips ...hit and run

Dallas GEP 09:44 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
I would not enter any new USD based possies NOW before data IF the intent is to be square before data. More than likely prices will be stagnant until then with possibly some quick movements just PRIOR to release.

gold coast martin 09:43 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:35 GMT October 15, 2004
In any case, don't expect ALOT of movement prior to data

If current fund action is correct on the USD/JPY pair expect a strong dollar rally today irrespective of the data...should anyone contemplating a day trade pre-data an entry of 10939 on the yen with a target of 10987....with a 10919 stop is a good trade....g/t

NYC usdOUTLAW 09:42 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
no one expects usd weakness going into the numbers in 2 hours??

Los Angeles ss 09:39 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Gep, I'm still holding my eurusd from earlier today, thinking it would get into the 1.2350's, but this thing just won't budge from the currenct range. Driving me nuts watching it go nowhere. Been hovering around 1.2390 for the last hour, so hopefully it's getting ready to break for the downside.

Sofia rocco 09:39 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Gecko - what's your target for cable? TIA

Dallas GEP 09:35 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
In any case, don't expect ALOT of movement prior to data

NYC usdOUTLAW 09:35 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
looks like the USD/CHF has found a new short term support level ... doh!!
ss-- the wedge says EUR/USD is a short, outlaw says its a long ... hopes

Dallas GEP 09:35 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
OK eur/gbp longs are what is keeping eur/usd up at these levels. Once we hit 6897 on Eur/gbp we should see some eur/gbp shorts and THEN eur/usd should start to short because eur/jpy is below 135.60 also

Syd 09:34 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin I just hope we get another Hat Trick
Howard Blair & Bush

Dallas GEP 09:27 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
CLOSED eur/jpy shorts at 135.68. Aussie shorts still working as well as Euro shorts

Los Angeles ss 09:27 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Anyone want to venture a guess what eurusd will do between now and data releases?

Auckland 09:24 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Hellllllllllllooooooooo Guys
wacup...........

sofia anmart 09:18 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY -109.44. We sell at the market for 108.72

gold coast martin 09:15 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
...but lets wait until their oil runs out.,......

van Gecko 09:14 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Good day viktor.. don't know if we are looking to the break today.. but some food for thought in addition to my 08:13 'Fractal/elephant' takes as we head into New York;
- the Dollar is teetering on the 87.50 precipice of a multi month compression formation for weeks now..
- complacent top picking specs are short (& bleeding) in Euro & its twin guide dogs (eur/gbp & eur/jpy)..
- stocks are exhibiting "Cold_Feet_titist" as the market approaches the 17th anniversary of Black Monday..
cheerios..
ok sam.. you are only looking for a few pips.. thanks

gold coast martin 09:13 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 09:07 GMT October 15, 2004
You dont need to worry...Haifa is a long way from Mecca....

NYC usdOUTLAW 09:12 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
SS-- a few pips is like 5 pips tonight which is the spread i am playing .. hah

Los Angeles ss 09:06 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
usdOUTLAW -- don't I know it's slow! Waiting for Eurusd to do something, to see if I should keep my sell or not. Don't want to hold it over the announcements and would like to make a few pips on it before then.

NYC usdOUTLAW 08:58 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
thx ss 4 the input
just a really slow night, have to convince myself of something b4 the US #s

Los Angeles ss 08:53 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
usdoutlaw-- no thoughts on the why of it really, just that it appears to be support.

Ldn 08:49 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Calling Top For CAD And AUD ?
AUD and CAD both seen at risk from further correction in metals prices with high yields unlikely to protect either. But some see AUD more vulnerable as oil price rally might prompt more rate rises in CAD. Others see CAD more likely to suffer because of large spec positions

NYC usdOUTLAW 08:48 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
SS -- surely thats a signal for a break down in the usd, betting heavy on upside in EUR/USD and GBP/USD, good idea? channelling stocks.com doesnt think so =P

slv sam 08:48 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Gecko/
watching price action not only euro but other majors against US$ tell me today probability is us$ going to be strong...that is for today! but I still belive we are going to visit 129 again before year end!!GT

Tallinn viies 08:47 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
about Nymex margin hike:
fwiw
0844 GMT (Dow Jones)--Tom James, Senior Partner at commodity trading and risk management advisor Global Risk Partners, says of $500 margin hike on Nymex Dec'04 March '05 crude, calendar swaps contracts due Mon: "At a stretch, it could be bullish. I think you would need to see a couple of thousand dollars added to margins in one go to shake any smaller traders out of the market." Adds $500
increase isn't "going to do much for the longs...a few shorts that may also have unrealized losses in their positions might get shaken out."

prague viktor 08:45 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 08:13 GMT October 15, 2004: G.daay mate(this is the end) are looking to the break today mate..G/L G/T

Gen dk 08:42 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

van Gecko 08:42 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
hello sam.. hope all is well.. why is e/$ a BIG sell today? thanks

Los Angeles ss 08:41 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
usdoutlaw -- looks like it Three bounces from it in the last 8 hours.

NYC usdOUTLAW 08:41 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
possible stop out drop in USD/CHF???

NYC usdOUTLAW 08:39 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
support in the USD/CHF @ 1.2430??

hong kong nt 08:35 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
AB -- sell oda at 1.2500...

gold coast martin 08:31 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
fwiw...i would have thought that yesterdays data had more of a chance of a sustained upward bias than todays...todays data may be a mixed bag of +ve usd and -ve usd thereby nullifying both the upside and downside and the market remaining static for another day.....g/t

slv sam 08:24 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 08:13 GMT /
but for today e/$ is big SELL.GT

Jakarta Cakradara 08:18 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
How with the influence from the development by fundamental from the indicator of US economics

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:14 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Still accumalting Yen from wed

van Gecko 08:13 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Yesterday's up thrust Daily Buy Fractal from a spike low was the 3rd consecutive week that Euro had tested the 1.24 multi month 'barrier'.. daily & weekly charts suggests m/t elephant bulls had took up camp above the 1.22 line since the middle of September, happily buying all the dips near the 21ma's..
will the market be humming the Doors lyric "The End" soon?
"This is the end, Beautiful friend
This is the end, My only friend, the end
Of our elaborate plans, the end.."



Chicago Goofy 08:09 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
To comfirm my prediction.
yesteray`s rally bottom should be taken out first.
Cable: 1.7960, 1.7940
Euro: 1.2377, 1.2359
Aud: 0.7290(out), 0.7280

gold coast martin 07:58 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 07:20 GMT October 15, 2004
Do it quietly ab,,,,,,shshshshhshshshhs!.....until the 31st of december.......

Melbourne Qindex 07:57 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
AUD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Chicago Goofy 07:57 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Dollar Bulls today takes 80% odd.
If I am right. then interesting things are that the Cable peak at 6:35, Aud peak at 6:40, Euro comes fom the last at 7:45. These threes pairs failed three times at 15:05, 15:55, 1:40 to come over the second high of yesterday. I bet there is a rebound today for these pairs after gud news. So be cautious and take profit when targets achieve.

hk ab 07:50 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
nt, you want to do the same thing?

Norwich MC 07:46 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
morning, any idea where cable will go today plz? gt

hong kong nt 07:45 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 07:20 -- 136.2 ?

hk ab 07:42 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy short limit 136

wellington am 07:20 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
FWIW going long December copper (HGZ4) at 1.27 stop 1.25.

Los Angeles ss 07:20 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Ok, found out - NYMEX closes at 2130 GMT.

hk ab 07:20 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Planning some sale for eur/jpy today.

wellington am 07:12 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Not sure what time NYMEX day session closes. As to the effect on USD, it is probably nuetral to bullish - esp. as the rather sick DOW might get a boost.

as a rule, norway is correlated positively to oil, and japan inversely. cable is supposed to do ok on higher oil as its economy is not that as reliant as some others (apparently).

Syd 07:07 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
wellington am if thats the case , traders will probably close out like you say so could see a drop.. would be very useful

Ken yes it got up to 7320 around 7gmt.

mex sjs 07:05 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
la fxnew, my tgt for gbp is between 1.7750-1.7800, before w/e....

Los Angeles ss 07:04 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
AM-- what time would that be GMT (close tonight). Also what effect do you think that will have on the dollar -- strengthen it?

slv sam 07:04 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
e/$ at 1.2385 is attractive sell for 100pips profit later today imho.GT

houston ken 07:03 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
did anyone notice the spike on aussie and nzd what happened?

wellington am 07:02 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Syd 06:57 GMT October 15, 2004
Change in NYMEX margin requirements not coming into effect until after close tonight.

Anyone trade copper futures here? I'm thinking about going long.

LA fxnew 07:01 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
anyone good with cable?
can you advice a target pls
thanks

Syd 06:57 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
wellington am
thanks for that , thought as much , just needed it confirming IFR are spreading the news and just posted this
( NYMEX Announcement Ignored Still )
they must be expecting some reaction later in the day .

Syd 06:54 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Aussie came off quite quickly could be a good short any higher until NY

wellington am 06:54 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 06:42 GMT October 15, 2004
Oil margins per contract were put up recently when Oil first hit around $48. It was a requirement from NYMEX due to the volatility of the contract. Anyone holding open positions were liable for larger margin requirements, and those fully invested, were forced to liquidate some contracts. The move sparked a sell off back to $48. In terms of meeting margin requirements, most traders would have a few days to stump up or liquidate - however, given the market knows this is going to happy, Oil may correct tonight. I'm staying out for now, but this is a valid reason to sell.

Syd 06:53 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies actually just getting my head around that , was listening to cnbc squawkbox analyst says done to try and squeeze specs with higher margin price . I suppose making it more costly to trade oil for some

mex sjs 06:47 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
i think it is a good time to short euro here at 1.2395 sl: 1.2450 tgt 1.2250....will add some more if trades above 1.2420 same stoploss same tgt...good trades...

hk mom 06:46 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Confirm to buy more nzd with gecko's flight.

Tallinn viies 06:42 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Syd 05:08 GMT October 15 - why oil should fall if margins go higher? dont undersatnd it. please explain

Sydney EM. 06:38 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
ANZ Bank AUD sentiment survey finds significant decline in bullish reading. Puts bulls at 37% of market, vs 51% last week, bears at 33% vs 23%, neutrals 30% vs 26%. ANZ strategist Craig Ferguson says no doubt failure of market to push through topside, sharp decline in AUD/USD Wednesday night toward 0.7210 is reason for subsiding bullish sentiment.
Anz wkly report

Prague Orion602 06:38 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
also:
15-Oct-2004 16:00 Fed Chairman Greenspan speaks on Oil

Los Angeles ss 06:26 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Or. . . ?

Los Angeles ss 06:21 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Raden -- your last comment, aud/usd -- did you mean eurusd?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 06:19 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
good.
aud/usd have get top today at 1.2310..

Syd 06:17 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
12:30 – US PPI (Sep) – expected at 0.1% and 0.2% ex Food and Energy
12:30 – US Retail Sales (Sep) – expected at 0.7% & 0.3% Less Autos
12:30 – US Empire Manufacturing (Oct) – expected at 25.00
13:15 – US Industrial Production (Sep) and Capacity Utilization (Sep)
13:50 – US University of Michigan Confidence (Oct P) – expected at 94.0

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 05:39 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Eur/usd
Level Buy : 1.2350 – 1.2338 – 1.2324 – 1.2300 – 1.2283 – 1.2208
Level Sell : 1.2397 – 1.2415 -1.2456 – 1.2525

GBP/usd
Level Buy : 1.7922 – 1.7907 – 1.7873
Level Sell : 1.7990/80 – 1.8027 – 1.8058 - 1.8125

Aud/usd
Level Buy : 0.7188 – 0.7155 – 0.7141
Level Sell : 0.7306 – 0.7318

Usd/jpy
Level Buy : 108.99 – 108.45
Level Sell : 109.88 – 110.00 – 110.30 – 110.51 – 110.75

Usd/Chf
Level Buy : 1.2546 – 1.2561 – 1.2602
Level Sell : 1.2423 – 1.2401

gold
Level Buy : 416.60 – 414.80 - 404.70
Level Sell : 418.00 – 420.00 – 420.70

raden mas jawa

Togliatti Ant 05:19 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
tks ss, i had a sell oda at 2340 , not done.., that kind of moves are not happen often

Los Angeles ss 05:18 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Raden, how do you see eurusd at this time?

Los Angeles ss 05:12 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Ant -- it spiked down on my chart also then, but my dealer rates didn't budge. Chart provider told me it was a glitch in their system.

Los Angeles ss 05:10 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Raden -- keep that train going. Will be good for my eur/usd sell position!

Syd 05:08 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Decision by NYMEX to up margins on crude oil and related
contracts could result in significant JPY buy-backs, especially on the crosses, and AUD and CAD sales if oil prices plunge

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 05:07 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 04:10 GMT October 15, 2004
I am on the bull usd train today.
I love usd bull railway today !! :-)

Togliatti Ant 05:05 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
frds would any one pls explain, what were the 3 moves down on eurusd cart 7 hours ago? moves to 1.2345-35 than back to 1.2380 lvl in 5-10 min? anybody knows what its relaited to?

cebu praetorian 04:45 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
good day!

Ldn 04:37 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
General Motors announces it will cut one-fifth of its European work force to reduce costs. Meanwhile, Volkswagen, Europe's largest car maker, is struggling with falling sales and rising costs.

Sydney Alimin 04:34 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
i wonder if dollar index can hold 87 level, a strong bounce from here will make a good rally for the dollar, but if 87 fails it would not be good

Syd 04:33 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Strong Earthquake Rocks Taiwan's Capital
Northern Taiwan Rocked By Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake

syd 04:26 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
But we must not forget 9/11 was being plotted whilst Clinton was in power and happened just six months into Bush's Presidency , not to mention the Stock Market Crash worst since 1929, was also ready to fall apart pre Bush
Oh but we conveniently ,dont mention this do we

syd 04:11 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 03:13 GMT October 15, 2004
Ditto your comment....

ps : Republicans: try Spin these facts...
In 2001 when the Bush administration was sworn in, the United States enjoyed a US$127.3 billion surplus. The large-scale tax cuts, economic cool-down, invasion of Iraq and anti-terrorism endeavours have abruptly turned the surplus into a US$459 billion deficit, which accounts for 3.8 per cent of the US gross domestic product (GDP).

By the 2004 fiscal year, the US Government's outstanding debt stood at US$7.586 trillion, accounting for 67.3 per cent of its GDP, which exceeds the internationally accepted warning limit.




Los Angeles ss 04:10 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning Raden! Still working on that Euro short at 1.2385! May fortune smile on your trades today.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 04:07 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
GOOD MORNING !!

prague jv 04:07 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
shorted eur/jpy 135.66 st 135.91

wisconsin tim 03:48 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Projections for 10/15/2004
Date Currency Close R1 Close S1 R1 High S1 Low
10/14/2004 AUDUSD 0.7339 0.7260 0.7370 0.7198
10/14/2004 EURGBP 0.6920 0.6883 0.6922 0.6842
10/14/2004 EURUSD 1.2439 1.2345 1.2471 1.2280
10/14/2004 EURYEN 136.23 135.29 136.29 134.77
10/14/2004 GBPUSD 1.8017 1.7888 1.8091 1.7873
10/14/2004 GBPYEN 197.37 195.98 197.81 195.72
10/14/2004 NDZUSD 0.6866 0.6789 0.6877 0.6722
10/14/2004 USDCAD 1.2581 1.2486 1.2630 1.2444
10/14/2004 USDCHF 1.2486 1.2380 1.2592 1.2370
10/14/2004 USDYEN 109.91 109.19 110.15 108.76
=)

prague jv 03:31 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
leo /
forecasters are all scams , non traders . Simpli and trueli , it is not possible forecast from RSI or some other tipe of tech hipe .

Price is moving with open futures contracts , and you want to wach net possitions as thay increase or decreas over time.

At the moment I am running a demo acc , with one of world renovated forecaster and it is in red . gl lern how to trade on your own .

van Gecko 03:29 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Kiwi City, NZ Air Press Oct 15 7:11 AM -- New Zealand Dollar flight to .7100 update:
after lifting off from the .6450 intermediate attractor flight pad last month, the recent blast above .6700 had kicked in additional turtle power to fuel the high flying Kiwi. The next intermediate attractor along the geometric trajectory to .7100 is .6880
Looks like the New Zealand Dollar may be the 2nd major pair to take out the Dollar's year low after the front running Canadian Dollar. Nzd/Usd last quoted at .6828

houston st 03:22 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   

OKIE -- I'm thinking about Adrian Peterson for Prez...hope you are doing well in the market...gl/gt.

OK SZ 03:13 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
oh here we go again with the democrats are the liars and the world will come to an end if they are elected. Oh that's right the republicans are the perfect people who have been appointed the moral majority..give me a freaking break..see you perfect republicans later

macau leo 03:11 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
receive a cold call asking to subscribe technical forecast service from Trendsetter Financial Service on Reuters (TREN01) or their Acetrader internet version. They mention the service has been widely used by many banks and financial institutions for 20 years. Can anyone comment on their service?

Ldn 02:42 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - U.S. Marines launched air and ground attacks Thursday on the insurgent bastion Fallujah after city representatives suspended peace talks with the government over Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's demand to hand over terror mastermind

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

never mind bin laden this is the Guy they need to catch
would give Bush a leg up

Los Angeles ss 02:19 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Goofy -- from IFR concerning EUR/$, guess it best sums up tomorrow's outlook: October 15: There is a lot of economic data out of the U.S. later today and
there is a real possibility that at least some of it will be USD supportive. As
the Fed keep reiterating, the U.S. economy is showing signs of solid growth even
though it has been a jobless recovery. The weaker than expected payroll data
last week has dampened the market"s enthusiasm towards U.S. growth prospects,
but the data later today might support the Fed"s claims that the economy is
traveling well. Empire State MFG Index, Retail Sales, IP, PPI, Capex and Univ
Michigan are released later today with PPI and Retail Sales receiving the most
attention by the markets.
Greenspan speaks later today specifically on the subject of oil prices. If his
words are soothing and the move by MYMEX to increase margins on some of the oil
future contracts actually results in oil prices falling, the EUR/USD could ease
back as a result.
To sum it up, the worst case scenario for EUR/USD longs is for the U.S. data
later today to back up Fed claims that the economy is growing in a sustainable
fashion and the oil price falls back from current levels. Best case is for more
disappointing U.S. data and for the oil price to continue to make new all-time
highs. [email protected]

Chicago Goofy 02:13 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
anyone agree me on the dollar bearish today? It will digest the $56 deficit if the Friday data comes in line with expectation.

Ldn 02:12 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
BEIJING -- China's demand for imports eased unexpectedly last month, giving one of the firmest indications yet that its torrid economy is cooling.
A marked slowdown in purchases of machinery, steel, oil and other raw materials helped reduce growth in imports to 22% in September from a year earlier and moved the trade balance into surplus for the first nine months of 2004. The trade data, along with continuing moderate growth in the money supply, bolstered what the Chinese government has said for months: that its piecemeal measures to restrict investment in overheated sectors, ease demand and gently decelerate the economy are taking hold. At the same time, economists said the appetite for Chinese-made goods in the U.S. and elsewhere should help cushion the economy from a precipitous downturn. "It signals a slowing economy but not too rapidly," said Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong. Commodities traders also skittishly are watching the Chinese economy for signs the heavy demand of the past year is flagging. Uncertainty over China, which consumes about a fifth of the world supply of copper, a crucial material for electrical-generating plants, helped drive copper-futures prices down 11% Wednesday. It was the biggest plunge in 14 years.
AP

Los Angeles ss 01:55 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
FXnew -- I'd probably wait and see how it behaves around 1.7950, bounces or breaks, or see if it has a run towards 1.8000 tonight before making any decisions to sell. Although the 15 minute chart stochs do appear oversold at this time. Still stuck in the 1.7950-1.7975 range since late our morning. So I guess I am saying wait for a range break all things considered.

Melbourne Qindex 01:52 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

LA fxnew 01:50 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
anyone sell cable at this time?
thanks :)

Gen dk 01:25 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 01:23 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
OK this is your standard warning about it being MUCH safer to be square before all the data annoucements. I would also say that you MIGHT not want to enter into any possies any later than perhaps 2 hours into London if you have hopes of exiting them prior to data. The reason for this is that the pricing action typically will be VERY slow and will become SLOWER the closer we get to data annoucements. Sometimes JUST prior to annoucements action will become at that time VERY quick and may even break the opposite way of the direction that data will take it. Forget about trying to edit stops and limits at annoucement time because you probably won't be able to do it, I would suggest that you take new possies no sooner than 15-30 minutes after data is annoucnced.

Livingston nh 01:22 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
HK - Fed talkers have been vocal about the current account deficit -- there are a lot of cross-currents and a weaker dollar is not going to change the trade balance by very much // petroleum imports are a major part of the trade deficit but that's a wash because every country has to deal with that - would watch in the next four years for tariffs and trade protectionist measures (comments are popping up that the negative aspects of such measures are much less in a service based economy) -- inflation is the likely cure in a lot of economies

HK [email protected] 01:12 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Sydney EM. 00:37 GMT October 15, 2004

Whatever Greeny says matters to my AAASSSS.
The current account deficit shows that the US is borrowing and/or printing money at a fantastic pace.
The US continue to issue I$O$U which are practically worthless, and any speech to talk up the dollar will only cause more harm to the trade balance.
It is not the cost of oil or the trade with China, which is the culprit.
The culprit are all those market-makers and GREENY on top of them, which are trying to keep the USD at unrealistic high levels from which it will eventually come down(hope not through a harmful collapse ).

The US stock market gave last day it's opinion on the current situation, and now the government policy-makers and market-makers are farting bolt and nuts.
Any attempt to prop up the USD should be considered as a crime against the American people, by economic sabotage.

Livingston nh 01:10 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
fwiw G'span has to rein in the exuberance in the bond market - he can't defend the transitory nature of Oil prices (that was gone from the last Fed statement) - fixed income has been buying the myth of slower economy from high energy so G'span has to address that // I don't know how currency reacts but I suspect the bond market will have indigestion after his speech

Ldn 01:02 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   

Traders are Wary of reversal on Euro ahead of a pile of US data and Greenspan

Ldn 01:01 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Traders are Wary of reversal ahead of a pile of US data and Greenspan.

Melbourne Qindex 00:58 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Weekly Cycle Charts




Melbourne Qindex 00:51 GMT October 11, 2004
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The critical point of my weekly cycle is located at 1.2436. The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is positioning at 1.2618. The pattern of my weekly cycle frequency chart indicates that 1.2497, 1.2558 and 1.2618 have the same frequency numbers. This would indicate that the market has a potential to move back and forth easily between these levels. The super magnet at 1.2618 will exert its effect on the market initially and this would be the primary target when the market is trading above 1.2497. The lower barrier is located at 1.2253 // 1.2314. The upper barrier is expected at 1.2618 // 1.2680. The market rhythm is represented by 61 pips and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.2253 - 1.2680 (Suggestion : Maintain a long position when the market is trading above 1.2436).


Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 1.2253 // 1.2314 - 1.2375 - 1.2436* - 1.2497 - 1.2558 - (1.2618) // 1.2680 ...


USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD & GBP/USD  Weekly Cycle Analyses. Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.



dc fxq 00:54 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 00:31 GM

Hear! Hear!

Ldn 00:52 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
NYMEX Decision To Increase Margin On Crude Has Market Talking ifr

Sydney EM. 00:37 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Currency market traders will scrutinize a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Friday for clues to the impact on the U.S. economy of high oil prices, which have moved into record territory this week.

Analysts say the Fed chief's pronouncements could give hints as to whether the U.S. central bank still views high oil prices as fleeting, if it is concerned that resulting inflation might curb economic growth and what effects that might have on the interest rate cycle.

A key question is how the Fed chief interprets the rise in oil futures traded in New York to peaks above $54 a barrel this week from around $43 when Greenspan recently delivered economic testimony on Sept. 8.

"The markets are looking to see if Greenspan puts greater importance on the recent run-up in oil prices. In his most recent testimony he seemed to downplay... (high) oil prices as being transitory," said Paresh Upadhyaya, portfolio manager at Putnam Investments in Boston.

If Greenspan were to reinforce that previous outlook, arguing the U.S. economy is resilient despite rising energy prices, "markets could interpret that as higher rates to come," which could lift the dollar, Upadhyaya said.

reuters finance

Los Angeles ss 00:31 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Any thoughts on Euro for this evening?

Ldn K 00:20 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
Just a pennies worth, just on the principal of the thing , Kerry should not have mentioned Cheney's daughter.

SanFrancisco TG 00:03 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
GEP - Ordinarilly I would agree, but this is indeed a relative issue to currency valuations and global economics.

This is a critical point in history, where the West either stands up again to the ideals of the 1900's or falls prey to them again.

Ironically, a weak US dollar at present has meant a rebalancing of global economic conditions in favor of free markets.

Melbourne Qindex 00:00 GMT October 15, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

 




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