2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 January February March April May June July August September October November December 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Forex Forum Archive for 10/17/2004
Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.
Syd 23:59 GMT October 17, 2004
IMM commitment report shows net JPY short non-commercial positions down at 6,387 contracts in week to Oct. 12 vs 14,496 net JPY short contracts a week earlier, investors unwinding shorts and market likely poised for more JPY /USD strength in near term
Los Angeles ss 23:51 GMT October 17, 2004
Gep, I think it may retrace downward some as it has a tendency to do. Looking to short it when the time comes for a few pips. Seems to be somewhat overbought on my intervals, 10/29 MAs starting to turn down. Thanks.
Dallas GEP 23:47 GMT October 17, 2004
SS, well I thought on Friday was that euro and GBP might LONG after dips but I am not really sure at this time. In fact present opinion is that USD will make at least a small comeback during Asia/London.
Los Angeles ss 23:44 GMT October 17, 2004
Gep -- any thoughts on GBPUSD?
Dallas GEP 23:42 GMT October 17, 2004
Well CAD is very slowly pipping up from my platform close of 1.2522 on friday. looking to add to my CAD longs IF if pips down and gives me oportunity to.
BTW the Astros BEAT Cardinals...series now tied 2-2
london 23:12 GMT October 17, 2004
Analyst see failure of the Canadian Dollar to break below 1.2500 support last week, as most other currencies surged against the dollar it was significant , plus positive 10-day momentum divergence at this month's low, suggests USD/CAD may have formed shorter-term bottom and could rebound ,resistance at 1.2550 and 1.2650 and any rise above last week's high of 1.2690 would trigger double bottom targeting 1.2880.
london 23:03 GMT October 17, 2004
Juneau CAR whilst agree it will affect the US economy however, Europe are not running great guns at present , infact in a worse state than the US in some areas , there is no reason for the Euro to appreciate considerably
Syd 23:01 GMT October 17, 2004
speculative positions in Aud have built up to high levels, while weak metal prices are also providing some drag. This has produced a significant deterioration in demand for AUD
Livingston nh 22:56 GMT October 17, 2004
In general - Growth would be affected if the supply was curtailed in some way but increased demand is not a reason to expect a slowdown - demand driven price leads to inflation usually (supply constraints lead to slowdowns)
And once China and others reach a "critical mass" of infrastructure there is a bias towards increasing commodity consumption and manufacturing demand even if new infrastructure is postponed as the economy grows into the previously built infrastructure
Juneau CAR 22:54 GMT October 17, 2004
Maybe London. Asia represents a second industrial revolution. New paradigm. So that is a pretty big new variable. High oil prices will also give asia that much more of an advantiage given the lower labor costs. Pretty complex set of variables.
But if you are right and it does, then how does the US grow itself out of the huge deficits? So tyhey could really mushroom; and if that happens what will that do to the US dollar? It could collapse.
Gold and oil have always had a positive correlation.
I do not think any of us know how this new set of varaibles will manifest themselves.
london 22:34 GMT October 17, 2004
Juneau CAR If oil price is sustained it will drag down world growth a lot further that currently forecast , not good for commodity ccys. well known fact.
Juneau CAR 22:26 GMT October 17, 2004
Commodites: see London Metal Exchange warehouse stats below and present prices:
Look at copper for instance: there were 470,000 tons in the LME last year at this time. Today there is 89,000 tons and some of the largest companies are on strike e.g Mexico and Argintina?. They are rationing uranium, cobalt, tin and nickel.
Feds have increased money supply, so with yuan pegged to the dollar China can continue to modernize selling to the US. China's GDP and general commodity needs will increase as it gains additional foreign exchange, so demand for base metals should increase not decrease.
It looks like Bush wil be reelected, so no change in policy i.e. he will continue to cut tax's and give more and more benefits to business so commodites demand wil continue there as well.
Last the dollar should continue to fall and infaltion increase as asia repatriates US dollars by buying western companies like Noranda as all of asia is worried about losing more value in dollar. Dollar down 30% against euro this year. Foreign deck hands on cruise ships are aware of dollar vulnerability i.e the guy in the street is now worried about losing value.
All of asia is worried about the dollar and believe persistant downward pressure on dollar will continue; and bush administration knows they need a lower dollar.
China used 40% more oil in the first 5 months of 03 compared to last year and also more metals. I expect asian demand for metals to increase exponentially and the wrarehouses are almost depleted now.
I see no slow down in metal demand in asia. Quite the contrary. China, for instance, is planning the building of several huge hydroelectis dams. Copper and zinc.
Eilat Dolphin 22:11 GMT October 17, 2004
LDN/ Not exactly, it could happen, but I can't tell in advance. My charts indicate an oversold $ for the next 24-48 hours, especially against the CHF and CAD; and politically, the Iraki, just as the US election gambits are easing off a bit toward a better $.
Add to it last week commodities normal cool off, I feel some confidence being long $ on the two above.
However my horizon has never gone, at best, beyond a 4 H slow stochs (14/4/4); while other on this forum, for sure do have betters optics on their periscope: Athens for exemple, among other long time posters.
Texas(Jksn.) PNB 22:10 GMT October 17, 2004
Philadelphia CE 22:07 GMT October 17, 2004
wow. i cant believe someone got to post such stuff here in a forex forum. it is so halarious.
totally out of context,but gutsy that you even tried posting here something like this. jay, come on in LOL
london 21:56 GMT October 17, 2004
Forex Focus: Aus, Canadian Dlrs Kept Off Their Highs This week's sharp correction in commodity currencies may not be over - knocking both the Australian and Canadian dollars off their recent high perches. Much, of course, will depend on whether actual commodity prices resume their slide. But, as market analysts point out, recent events have shown two things: that commodity prices have now reached the stage where they are vulnerable to sharp reversals, and that the commodity currencies can no longer rely on high interest rates to protect them. "The movements provide a wake-up call to markets that high yield is only part of the story for these currencies," said Daragh Maher, a senior currency strategist with Calyon Corporate and Investment Bank in London. He noted that the correlation between the Canadian dollar and its commodity basket is now as high as 86%. The shock decline in raw material prices this week came as higher than expected copper inventories pushed prices in the base metal as much as 15% lower over the last two days, with prices across the London Metals Exchange following suit. The downturn reflected not only concern about the general state of the global recovery, but fears that demand from China may be starting to wane. Even those who feel that demand from both the U.S. and China will remain strong enough to prevent any serious backtracking in metals prices admit the risk of further losses. "It is questionable how far the correction in metals prices will go or how long lasting it may prove," Maher said. "But," he added, "with speculation at play in metals prices as much as oil, the risk that the current sell off has more momentum remains." Also, warned Trevor Dinmore, a currency strategist at Deutsche Bank in London, this metals selloff appears more "severe" than the one that took place in April this year. He said the impact on currencies shouldn't be as great given that there is less leverage in the markets this time round. "We do not believe positioning in dollar-bloc currencies reached the extremes of earlier this year," he said, suggesting that the rangebound trading has discouraged players from taking on too much directional risk over the course of this year. All the same, the whole episode puts the commodity currencies at risk in a way that was absent at the start of the week. Then, they appeared relatively secure. The Canadian dollar was climbing steadily as the country's impressive economic recovery and higher interest rates made it an attractive alternative to its U.S. counterpart. The Australian dollar's performance may not have been as spectacular, but it was firm, if rangebound, for most of the summer, supported by foreign flows into its high-yielding debt. While the Canadian dollar offers rates up at 2.50%, the Australian dollar has a cash rate of as much as 5.25%. According to the latest sentiment survey from Craig Ferguson, ANZ Bank's Melbourne-based technical analyst, there has been a significant decline in bullish customers to 37% from 51% over the last week. Bears have risen to 33% from 23% while neutrals have also gone up to 30% from 26%. However, this doesn't mean that it is going to do any worse than its Canadian counterpart, which is seen more vulnerable to high crude oil prices. So while Calyon's Maher argues that it would be best to continue selling the Aussie against the Canadian dollar, given that the latter might spring more rate surprises on the upside, economists at BNP Paribas recommend the opposite. They argue that while the Aussie's higher yield would "prove a feeble competitor against a wider decline in commodity prices," the large speculative long positions in the Canadian currency leave it more vulnerable to a selloff. "We would suggest that those looking to stay long Australian dollar switch to Canadian dollar shorts amid a wider correction." Early Friday, both currencies remained under light selling pressure. .
ldn 21:54 GMT October 17, 2004
Eilat Dolphin your expecting short term dollar strength ?
Eilat Dolphin 21:50 GMT October 17, 2004
Stavanger/ The perfect correlation between "commercial" = "big boys" + "small boys".
But then the story does not tell who intiates the moves. However, it seems obvious on FX and gold at least, that after a certain price, the commercial buyers get out of the market waiting for better days.
For oil it's not the same, out of buying necessity, probably.
Also worth seeing is the divergence at the beginning and during the Iraki war, and the change afterwards.
Right now, on certains FX crosses, there seems to be a gap as wide as a white sharks open mouth. It could mean a small retreat, or rather a repositioning up of the $, which I am eyeing-expecting.
GVI john 21:47 GMT October 17, 2004
Andras- Yes sorry for the typo
stavanger risktaker 21:42 GMT October 17, 2004
Tanks again Londres.
Eilat,gudd charts from an aviator, as expected, will study how to use'm. Especially get into the trading of lean hogs, he,he....
Any timesaving tips?
Pecs Andras 21:39 GMT October 17, 2004
What is "allergiance"?
Meant to be "allegiance"?
GVI john 21:32 GMT October 17, 2004
GVI john 21:30 GMT October 17, 2004
Much earlier headline on DJ- Zarqawi Iraq Group vows allergiance to Bin Laden.
Sydney 21:25 GMT October 17, 2004
Rising oil price to cut economic growth by 1.7 pc
Oil prices, which have climbed steeply in 2004, are likely to drag down the world economy. An Australian report says the oil price rise will cut 1.7 percentage points from the country's economic growth. Warwick McKibbin, a director of the Reserve Bank of Australia, and Andy Stoeckel of the Centre for International Economics have conducted a study. It says the damage to the world economy would be 50 per cent greater than the forecasts made by the International Energy Agency. The Australian Treasury has forecast economic growth for the next four years would average 3.5 per cent each year.
The Australian press.
Sydney 21:22 GMT October 17, 2004
Residents Report Strong Explosion In Baghdad District
Close to the Australian Embassy. Sky news
Eilat Dolphin 21:16 GMT October 17, 2004
Stavanger/ Especially the three lines: "commercial", "big guys" and "small guys" lines... on all fx majors and commodities.
Eilat Dolphin 21:14 GMT October 17, 2004
Stabangers/ FreeCOTcharts.com is excellent!
I used to have long wings, not only fins...
stavanger risktaker 21:10 GMT October 17, 2004
Thanks London ,can U supply the net address where U find the net long/short positions?
Eilat, didn't think dolphins tracked Loran, but used sonar. But thanks to GPS and other guddies we can now consentrate on market action TIC/TACK.
Anyway, we might be in for a dollarbear trap ahead. But what jawboning surprice is gonna hit. The guy below has been tracking gudd lately. Any comment on this?
by Karoll Inc
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast:
There is no change. The fall from 1.2926 (18 February) is the second wave (B) of a double corrective combination started from 0.8563 (February 2002) upon my mid-term analysis. With an eye on the fact that the previous wave (A) is corrective in nature (started from 1.0558 – 7 April 2003), current wave (B) has as a minimum requirement 1.1410 (61.8 % retracement of wave (A)). The fall from 1.2926 (18 February) to 1.1771 (13 May) is wave A of (B) and wave B of (B) is developing now. It should go at least to 1.2470 (61.8 % retracement) before beginning of the wave C of (B) to 1.1410
WASH DC SRQ 20:41 GMT October 17, 2004
breaking news...open cnbc...jackson ishaving *ex with a dog -live video.
it's showing now. go go go. fast everyone
london 20:34 GMT October 17, 2004
COMEX gold ends up, seen edging lower in range
Fri Oct 15, 2004 03:06 PM ET
NEW YORK, Oct 15 (Reuters) - COMEX gold futures ended higher but off from the session peak on Friday after prices ran into resistance at the $420-an-ounce, despite a supportive decline in the U.S. dollar, dealers said. A weak dollar and soaring oil prices have attracted investors to the hard asset as a hedge against inflation, but consistent profit-taking at the highs has capped gains. "I'm not convinced that we're still not in a trading range, and we're not breaking out of that," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management. "I found it interesting that we saw highs in the currencies not seen for a very long time and gold is still $10 off its high. "I think gold is headed lower," said Kaplan, who pegged the market in a range from $390 to $425.
Eilat Dolphin 20:31 GMT October 17, 2004
Risktaker/ No more clue on TICs that when I was trying to decifer Loran PINGS beamed out of Stavanger...
london 20:30 GMT October 17, 2004
NEW YORK, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Currency speculators on the Chicago futures market trimmed their net long euro position in the week ended Oct. 12, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.
"Long" positions are de facto bets a specific currency will strengthen, while "short" positions are effectively bets it will weaken.
The data are only for the week to Tuesday. But with the euro bursting above $1.25 (EUR=: Quote, Profile, Research) earlier on Friday for the first time in almost eight months, the market has probably increased its net long position since Tuesday.
"I would think there's a risk we're now back in record territory," said Robert Sinche, global strategist at Bank of America in New York. This could well weigh on the euro and limit its gains in the days ahead, he said.
The International Monetary Market data from the CFTC's Commitments of Traders report on speculative positioning are used by analysts as an indicator of future market direction.
For example, extreme net long positions often signal a decline in a currency going forward. That is because the buildup of positions reflects what has already happened, not the growing risk of a reversal when the market is heavily positioned one way.
Speculators generally are trend followers seeking to pick a precise top or bottom in the market.
Futures traders trimmed their net long euro position to 38,095 contracts from a record 44,811 the week before.
Other notable developments were new record net long positions in Canadian dollar and Mexican peso futures.
"They're the currencies most at risk from a positioning perspective," Sinche said.
IMM traders went net short of sterling for the first time in over a year, while they continued to trim their net short yen positions.
EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
10/12/04 week 10/05/04 week
Long 44,461 50,305
Short 6,366 5,494
Net 38,095 44,811
JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
10/12/04 week 10/05/04 week
Long 12,753 11,572
Short 19,140 26,068
Net -6,387 -14,496
POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,000 pounds sterling)
10/12/04 week 10/05/04 week
Long 12,458 14,877
Short 16,631 14,851
Net -4,173 26
SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
10/12/04 week 10/05/04 week
Long 8,167 5,092
Short 12,805 9,852
Net -4,638 -4,760
CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
10/12/04 week 10/05/04 week
Long 56,875 53,036
Short 7,489 7,868
Net 49,386 45,168
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
10/12/04 week 10/05/04 week
Long 26,060 19,510
Short 1,857 2,610
Net 24,203 16,900
stavanger risktaker 20:17 GMT October 17, 2004
Gudd evening to U all! Anybloody have a clue of US capital inflows report due tomorrow??
Philadelphia caba 20:11 GMT October 17, 2004
Sell EUR/CHF @ 1.5385, s/l 1.5423, t/p open
LA fxnew 19:00 GMT October 17, 2004
what is your view for cable?
is it going down or continue the upward movement?
Philadelphia caba 18:07 GMT October 17, 2004
Re-entering short on EUR/CHF. Waiting sell order @ 1.5400, s/l 1.5423, t/p open now.
Toronto Aviator 18:05 GMT October 17, 2004
What a fun time for the Colonel!!
Almost as much fun as Forex.
Have a great week GL & GT
Dallas GEP 18:05 GMT October 17, 2004
1.2487 I mean
Dallas GEP 18:04 GMT October 17, 2004
Stops on usd/cad longs now 1.2587
Dallas GEP 18:00 GMT October 17, 2004
Thnaks Aviator, Knew a colonel who flew SR71BB.
Philadelphia caba 18:00 GMT October 17, 2004
Toronto Aviator 17:56 GMT October 17, 2004
Your 17:53 GMT
The latest I have is 1.2522
Dallas GEP 17:53 GMT October 17, 2004
Anyone got a live quote on CAD now???
hk mom 15:50 GMT October 17, 2004
bc, I had a very nice Friday sleeping.
You see a retracement on commodity currencies?
Shall I sell some aud then? for short term?
Spotforex NY 13:25 GMT October 17, 2004
Nicely stated Athens...
I had a great relationship with the major banks and one of the corporate sales people told me that they were about to 'dump' the DM vs the Dollar.....I took his advice and went with the trade as well....the first sign of the position going bad was that I got that same banks same in the brokers market ...the position never saw daylight and i dumped it for a loss...
I spoke with the salesman about how I got his banks name doing the opposite of what he just told me....
His reply was "our prop' desk did a bigger trade in the opposite direction when this custy came in....the props won this battle....
seems that even the info is not the complete picture within one bank...LOL
Roumeli anka 11:59 GMT October 17, 2004
Same for GBPUSD
Roumeli anka 11:58 GMT October 17, 2004
Good morning. This is a monthly chart of EURUSD. We can see a clear uptrend channel is forming. The 1.28-1.32 level is the median line of this channel and the highs of 1978-79. This is for me the real resistance and the long term target around 2.00. There are many other technical points one can discuss by studing this chart, but any chartist here could draw his one conclusion.
Ltn th 10:14 GMT October 17, 2004
Athens. Thanks. Only too true, as I have learnt the hard way over and over again.
Athens 10:12 GMT October 17, 2004
One last point before I go. No matter what size and quality of info about "smart" money and real flows one can get, there is no way to have a complete and full picture of a trillion dollar market. More often than not, partial informatin is worse than no information at all for it can give a very wrong picture. All right, I am out now.
Athens 10:09 GMT October 17, 2004
TH, as I said earlier, never say never in the market which translates into "nothing is impossible, the word "impossible" simply doesn't exist in the market vocabulary. My point was that I suspected a small "conspiracy case" last w/e, fine, it proved to be the case, but at some point I have to return to more solid analysis. As you perhaps know, my basic tool is not traditional TA but my own Trendways model and even better if this and TA point to the same direction. Bottom line, thinking about possible surprises is always a challenging exercise for the mind, however if made the focal point then one can't make trading decisions. The best I can suggest for practical reasons is to always be prepared for surprises and have readily available escape exits and alternative plans. Good luck. I am off now.
Ltn th 10:02 GMT October 17, 2004
Can anyone please explain?
From outside the US economy I keep seeing and hearing about how things are booming and the economy is stronger than ever. But from any objective criteria in terms of tangible benefits to US citizens the opposite seems the case. Many businesses that are recording good results give the impression of a fire or pre evacuation sale and asset stripping?
Ltn th 09:57 GMT October 17, 2004
Athens. The ref to intell was simply `one example of how what may be a surprise tom the market as a whole can percolate via TA.
Athens 09:25 GMT October 17, 2004
In my 8:27 comment please read "I said" instead of the typo "U said" which may lead to a misinterpretation.
Athens 08:27 GMT October 17, 2004
TH, I don't have access to such intel info, hence I can't say anything on that. Regarding the probability of some smart people making the market put up some more money on the table last Friday, it may still be the case. However, as far as I am concerned, I won't go on betting on that scenario for just one reason. If you go back to my "double bluff" comment I posted last weekend, U said that the high EUR/$ close above 1.24 on previous Friday (Oct 8) would very likely be a bluff to those expecting an upside breakout on Monday Oct 11, the second bluff to be seen on a strong downmove that would make traders EUR negative and that should be followed by a EUR surge to collect the double bluff money. Well, since all these things, theoretical when first discussed but a fact in the process, have now materialised, I don't really feel like betting on more bluffs, hence I will rather stick to my tech which isn't based on just traditional TA.
Ltn th 08:10 GMT October 17, 2004
Athens. Coming to less hypothetical driving functions. Namely some big money hedging on the US elections. Is it possible that they nobbled the market place a bit, later friday? Does anyone have the odds quoted by the bookies and was there a shift there?
TA can incorporate many events but there are some things that I regard as driving functions that introduce steps or spikes that are conjugated with the normal response. Things get a bit difficult because most events are not totally unexpected and get incorporated into TA. There is usualy intelligence information or smart money with accurate polling.
Athens 07:51 GMT October 17, 2004
Fine, TH. I can't argue against personal feeling. Thanks.
Ltn th 07:49 GMT October 17, 2004
On the technical side, I am inclined to your view as almost no pairs or indices moved far enough on friday in the appropriate direction.
Ltn th 07:46 GMT October 17, 2004
Athens. Purely my expectation to a hypothetical fundamental driving function. Nought technical at all in usual sense.
Athens 07:39 GMT October 17, 2004
TH, with all respect, on what good reason should a significant technical take place? I am not saying that it can't happen (never say never in the market) and perhaps with only a couple of weeks to the US elections the market might decide to stay rangebound, however on pure technical ground why should one expect a EUR/$ retracement? This pair is far from being O/B and there are several good technical reasons for a continuation while I fail to see any good technical factor pointing to the opposite direction apart from probable minor corrective downticks. As far as I can tell, 1.2500 is only a round psychological level with no important "specific weight" in terms of tech.
Ltn th 07:24 GMT October 17, 2004
RF: Not a large effect but fwiw USD +ve and dow -xe after an hour or so. USD may jump a bit extra to begin with then retrace.
HK [email protected] 02:58 GMT October 17, 2004
I have a theoretical question.
If North korea will make soon a nuclear test, what will be the effect on the currency market?
Will it be USD positive or negative?
HK [email protected] 02:32 GMT October 17, 2004
Hemel UK AlanFX 20:18 GMT October 16, 2004
The way sentiments are swinging in the market may change few times during Sundays.
All are now wise contrarians who want to buy Euro on dips(and who knows how the views may change again up to the opening).
The best contrarian (me not included), is the one who thinks nothing on weekends.
Calabash TarHeel 00:18 GMT October 17, 2004
boston mpd004 23:24 GMT October 16, 2004
Yes, I spent three really great years there in the late 60's, lived in Danvers, worked on Brookline Ave. Loved it up there, I was young then. My wife found it a little too cold for her tho.
Enjoyed, Wonderland, Tauton, one horse track in NH, Rockingham I think.
Boston was really a great city, always something to do.Had some great bars, clubs, resturants, deli's, after hour bars and lovely ladies. What more could a little souhtern boy ask for.
The Cape was nice too, P'town especially.
I would like to come back someday, but really doubt it, both my children have children, so I stay fairly close to home now.
As for pips, I'm always happy to average 30+ a day over a week's time. More than that is a bonus to me. If you like get my email from Jay, we might have someting in common.
Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 27 May 2019
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube