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Forex Forum Archive for 10/25/2004

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Melbourne Qindex 23:53 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 23:39 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate 23:14 GMT - Thank you for your compliment. There is a lot of uncertainty this week.

Syd 23:32 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Senior trader at Japan securities firm says Japan investors' buying of shares in Italian power company Enel has run course, The Italy-related euro-buying - which seems to have involved more than one trillion yen - has finished. EUR/JPY topside now heavy, sales by Japan exporters near month-end offers may be large enough to push it as lower

Rivonia PipPirate 23:14 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:59 GMT Hi Dr Q. Well done. I think you must have been the only person who did not throw his charts out the window.:-)

Syd 23:10 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
NY close
Crude Oil 54.54 -0.65

Gold 428.4 +0.1

SAIHAT 23:08 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
MAY ASIA RANGE

1.2761 1.2838
1.1931 1.2019

106.43 107.09
0.7438 0.7494

1.8359 1.8465
1.2163 1.2253

Melbourne Qindex 22:59 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : The following is still a good reference in the Asian session. The updated analysis will be ready in my page within an hour. Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.



Melbourne Qindex 21:15 GMT October 24, 2004
USD/JPY : The neutral position of my daily cycle charts is located at 106.80 - 107.28. A projected supporting point is expected at 106.32 and a projected resistant level is positioning at 107.74 - 107.78.


Curve A : ... 106.06* // 106.22 - 106.37* - 106.52 - 106.67* - 106.83 - 106.98* - 107.13 - (107.28)* - 107.44 - 107.59* - 107.74 // 107.89* ...


Curve B : ... 105.83* // 106.32 - (106.80)* - 107.28 - 107.77* // 108.26 - 108.74* ...


Curve C : ... 106.12* // 106.32 - 106.51* - 106.70 - 106.89* - 107.09 (107.28)* - 107.48 - 107.67* - 107.86 // 108.05*...

Curve D : ... 105.99* // 106.32 - 106.64* - 106.96 - (107.28)* - 107.60 // 107.92* ...


-----------------------------------

The market hit the low and the high at 106.22 and 107.38 respectively.



Syd 22:59 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Strong option-related resistance for AUD/USD sits at 0.7500, gap that opened yesterday may need to be filled before AUD overcomes this important psychological level.
NAB strategy report

Halifax CB 22:53 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
whoops, that channel is on USDJPY

Melbourne Qindex 22:53 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


Halifax CB 22:47 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Ldn th - thx for your commnents. It's going to be interesting over the next week with the different players - CB's, funds, and little fish all in the tank together. FWIW I thought Watanabe's comments - coming as they did right as the USDJPY was hitting a peak around 106.88 - curiously amusing (and in my case, fortuitous).

And speaking of linearity - there seems to be a rather nice channel formed from about 0700 GMT 18 Oct to today at 1600 GMT (I may have the hours slightly wrong as the charts are in EDT, my zone is an hour ahead, & then I'm translating to GMT). It's about 45 pips wide...

Philadelphia caba 22:47 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
hk dad 22:39 GMT October 25, 2004
Philadelphia caba 22:30 GMT October 25, 2004
you Sold EUR/CHF @ the bottom. imho Eur/chf diamonds will come very soon for hk ab.

So far +36, time will tell. I'll cover at the bounce up..

hk ab 22:46 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
my choice to offscreen for most of the trading hrs is right.
First there's a hk dad, then hk mom, and then hk son.
hk grandma next?

hk ab 22:45 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
dad, have you got enough sleeping last night?
maybe the eur mkt isn't exciting enough for your little brain....
Thanks for your many c9 thoughts.

hk dad 22:39 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Philadelphia caba 22:30 GMT October 25, 2004
you Sold EUR/CHF @ the bottom. imho Eur/chf diamonds will come very soon for hk ab.

wellington am 22:30 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
kiwi/ozzy cross coming off hard. market's probably factored in doveish forthcoming rates announcement. fair value for this pair's more like .86. (1.163)


Philadelphia caba 22:30 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Sold EUR/CHF @ 1.5330 & (@1.5340 early last night) for break 1.5310. Any comments?

hk ab 22:24 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
london//No. One of my exp. trader friend did mention to me his view on Rubin 2 months ago. Indeed, Democrat will shut off the tap likely by him.

hk ab 22:22 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
The eur game is that everything is setup for a slow push to 1.2930 by this Fri (but it is possible to see it any time between now and then).
Having been usd bull for quite a while but when I see the 1.25 easily taken + the ascending 5 and 10 dma, every dips will be protected by these two lines.
At the crossroad, it will tell us how many of the spect. will be willing to unwind their position. Maybe not.

london 22:19 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab
I think its more a matter of trying to forget him

hk ab 22:18 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 18:59 GMT October 25, 2004
finally, someone remembers Rubin :)

hk ab 22:18 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 18:59 GMT October 25, 2004
finally, someone remembers Rubin :)

Melbourne Qindex 22:06 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Ltn th 21:52 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
....linear daily limit....

Ltn th 21:51 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 20:53//
The market dynamics have changed since yesterdays european session compared to recent weeks. I suspect that a different group are "making" or limiting the market. I base this on altered correlations between rates and things like dow and gold.
I have a slight suspicin that if there is some sort of concerted CB action then on past history they will impose a linear limit on usdx or major pairs on a monthly basis to stop significant breach of their target figure. So different set of chart tools. I have some thoughts on numbers but far too early to say. Published forecasts by CB's may give some guide.

Syd 21:48 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
The dollar is headed into dangerous territory against the Japanese yen as we get closer to the psychologically important 105 level. It is believed that 105 is the pain threshold of the Ministry of Finance. Over the past year, the last time that the Bank of Japan intervened to sell the yen was on March 16, 2004. At the beginning of their fiscal year in April, the MoF had let USDJPY slip to a low of 103.40 without intervening. However, besides the sharp dip surrounding the beginning of the fiscal year, the MoF has not let USDJPY slip below 105 over the past 12 months. So there is a high likelihood of physical intervention around that level. At this point, there continues to be rumors of price checking by the MoF, though actual intervention has yet to be seen. So far there has not been any notable spikes in the price action, which could be indicative of official buying. Japanese data released thus far this week have been negative for the Japanese yen. Nationwide department store sales fell –4.4% yoy in September, which is the seventh consecutive monthly decline. Japan is releasing their small business confidence survey tomorrow. Sentiment is also expected to decline modestly in September.
dailyfx.com


Melbourne Qindex 21:12 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

london 21:05 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Gold ..Large fund-type accounts extended their massive net long Gold position in New York gold futures in the latest week. Analysts were concerned that the glut of longs was getting burdensome to the market and could lead to a sell-off.
Commitments of Traders data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued on Friday showed the net speculative long exposure rose 5,777 lots to 120,914 lots as of Oct. 19.The net long position is the fifth highest ever, said Tim Evans, senior commodity analyst at IFR Markets.

"There is potential for further buying up to the 144,253 contract extreme from April 6, or for an even larger position, depending on the market's ability to either attract new players or for existing players to pyramid to an even larger position size," he said.

"However, the flow in does not look all that robust here, and there is also risk of long liquidation, especially if crude oil and the dollar reverse course."

Reuters.

Halifax CB 20:53 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Watanabe comments on the USD decline. Note that he didn't say anything about it being too low; just making sure it didn't happen too fast.

london 20:47 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Bonn Karl come on thought this forum was over that petty bickering - everyone is right at some point in time

london 20:46 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
There is a lot of excitement - a wicked amount of potential energy is getting released in this market after going nowhere for so long, and it's putting some real momentum behind the moves . But, ever cognizant of the fact that markets do not move one way forever, many traders are trying to pinpoint the the factor that will eventually spur a dollar correction. The dollar has fallen and appears to be picking up momentum, but that doesn't mean that the move is not vulnerable in the short term to some profit taking on short dollar positions, the trigger for corrective move in the dollar this week would be a backup in oil prices or an unexpected uptick in the inflation component of Friday's report on third quarter gross domestic product. In addition, a move in the euro toward all-time highs above $1.2925, or a move in the dollar below Y105.00, could spur some rhetoric from the Bank of Japan or European Central Bank aimed at stemming their currencies' gains versus the dollar. The potential for direct intervention in currency markets by Japanese monetary officials also remains a risk, though such action is generally not expected to be seen until after the U.S. election is over.
JPMorgan Private Bank in New York

Bonn Karl 20:40 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 20:23 GMT October 25, 2004 / " ... Most often (tho not always) when I disagree with a post I simply don't say anything."

I see, in other words ... whenever it suits you, or in which direction the wind blows.

london 20:27 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
GENEVA FHR thanks for clearing that up

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 20:23 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Bonn Karl 20:02 GMT October 25, 2004// Easy amigo. I supported your view of maintaining your position didn't I? Most often (tho not always) when I disagree with a post I simply don't say anything. When I agree I express it. Funny quirk about me. I'm one to (usually) avoid comment which incites rath or discontent on FF.

One thing I really shun are the soothsayers who constantly try to tie US economic data to the charts. The US is about in t he same shape as it was a quarter ago yet the charts are completely different for USD crosses. Copping out on actual broad scope analysis, pasting USD price to faux economic static noise or "technical abandon" (as I call overuse of math, models and other gee whiz magic) is not FX.

GENEVA FHR 20:15 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Roll over have usually no influence on prices.

london 20:11 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Goofy I would like to find out about it myself, heard tomorrow roll over date for gold contracts , wonder if anyone here knows what affect it will have on the price as it is exceptionally large.

NYC YIPPEE 20:11 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Delete that link. Bucket shop.

Richardson wr 20:07 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
anybody been on forextradeoracle.com and taken a look at their system?

Bonn Karl 20:02 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 19:56 GMT October 25, 2004 .... ?????
Ah .... you and gold coast martin are one and the same??? And I thought you were just his sidekick ... explains it perfectly. LOL LOL

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 19:59 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 19:31 GMT October 25, 2004// I didn't get what you interpreted from martin's posts. Whew, whata day. Again. Let's read carefully each other's posts so confusion doesn't result. Darned if when I post something or if someone else does who's thought things out well, if someone comes up with some weird tilt to what was said. I think we have language barriers at work here, not intellects.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 19:56 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Bonn Karl 19:46 GMT October 25, 2004// I agree. Form your plan wisely, stick to it. My views on the rogue at the start of this year have not deviated at all from what I see unfolding. When I deviate from my plan I cost myself pips. If you are a wise analyst and steady as an oak, you need not bend to the winds. It's breezy in here.

Chicago Goofy 19:55 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Sir, I mean the rather large Gold future rollover tomorrow...

Syd 19:52 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Oil gave back some of its big morning gains as fears of a Norwegian oil strike allayed by theNorwegian government.

london 19:47 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Goofy ?

Bonn Karl 19:46 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
One gaffe too many ....

gold coast martin 16:21 GMT October 15, 2004
gold coast martin 15:11 GMT October 12, 2004
nyc jk...it is working.....shame your fund was not on the list...g/t

BLUFF?...WRONG AGAIN

euro at 12485 and above does not ensure a 126+....MY VIEW ON EURO was formed at start of 2004 and will remain intact until that timeframe thus reflecting my position trade in that pair...

ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!

Chicago Goofy 19:35 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
london 17:41 GMT October 25, 2004
Sir, Please explain the market effect..

Stockholm AGuy 19:31 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 19:08 GMT: "thINK"

Indeed, think. So, what exactly did you think I meant by "in order to keep their own exporters in business"? (Stockholm AGuy 18:56 GMT).

You are the one claiming that "the USA was always forcing the asians to buy their debt and the JAPS to politely keep the dollar up" (gold coast martin 18:47 GMT)!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:28 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
1.8560 will shrot cable there

Eilat Dolphin 19:24 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Mos-quito/ your "Bush is an FX trader in ambush" is the darkest idea ever on GVI. The Conspiracy Price is yours!

Dublin Flip 19:20 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Bob Rubin's often eulogised "Strong dollar policy" owes more to the worries over the re-unification of germany, the dotcom bubble the Asian currency crisis and finally the launch and reluctance to accept the Euro than any tangible policy. There was a dearth of safe areas for global capital and the US fortutitously through the US stock market bon-fire (fanned by the gullible including Greenspan) saw the dollar and dollar assets boom. It was a one-off perfect storm that lasted less than five years. As an example the $jpy was 125 when Bill took over and 115 when he dropped the keys off. The strong dollar policy is the policy you have when you look to take credit for something completely out of your control. USD was the symbiotic benefit that came from disproportional Global malinvestment. Maybe there is a chance of hyping again those bubble conditions but I'd say more a case of "once bitten, twice shy"-LOL

Syd 19:11 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Ramifications on [AUD/USD] of News Corp move to U.S.
mulled. Herald Suns say move could still be blocked after vote tomorrow. A$3-5 bln max effect eyed

gold coast martin 19:08 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 18:56 GMT October 25, 2004
thINK,,,,a weak yen means a strong dollar....asians want entry for their products into the biggest consumer market in the world..competition amongst each other means that they have to have a competative currency to gain bigger market share for their goods by pricing.... HENCE the americans always in the drivers seat and dictating terms....buy yankee debt which finances deficit and in return receive entry into the biggest consumer market in the world....

Livingston nh 18:59 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
The dollar usually strengthens after a Presidential election (post election rally took a little longer to get its feet bcause of the delay in results) - 1992 was especially sharp (incumbent lost)// since the demise of Bretton Woods republicans tend to be less friendly to the value of the dollar and more prone to big action (trade protection, gold window close, Plaza ) - democrats may be able to find the strong dollar recipe that Rubin allegedly hid in the White House basement when he resigned // the Fed is now chiming in on everything from the trade decifit, the currency and budget deficit - would be careful thinking the Fed is going on hold anytime soon (Q3 GDP friday) // democrat victory might not be well received by the bond market so higher LT rates would also be USD supportive - at these dollar levels foreigners have traditionally found US real estate and companies (maybe some big oil producer) attractive

Stockholm AGuy 18:56 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 18:47 GMT: "Right now you have to ask one Question:why are asian banks dumping dollars like never before this year?"

They haven't. In fact, they are just about the only one who have kept buying. Not because the US has been "forcing" them to, mind you, but in order to keep their own exporters in business:

http://forexnews.com/AI/defaultnew.asp?f=A20041018A.mgn

london 18:48 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB"
Feel it has a lot to do with the speed of the decline more than the move, as the BOJ say ,rapid decline in no ones interest, and with oversold levels many are nervous. USD has a habit of doing a Houdini

gold coast martin 18:47 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Right now you have to ask one Question:why are asian banks dumping dollars like never before this year?answer:Up to now the USA was always forcing the asians to buy their debt and the JAPS to politely keep the dollar up...that has always happened during the course of any president....the approach of an election gives the US kind of vulnarability that the asians feel gives them a limited window of opportunity to balance their dollar-bloated treasuries by selling it...without much fear of the noose getting tight due to election time and USAs pre-occupation with the election....
As this is a temporary phenomenon the status quo is restored after the election and the market is left to the whim of fundamentals... G/T

Halifax CB 18:45 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Mosquito - I've changed my tune re shorting the USD partly because the dollar decline looks managed, it's hardly in free fall. By who - the CB's, God, or the Illuminati? Or maybe just perception? It doesn't matter, the important thing is that as the USD moves moderately quickly to a more sensible level re. other currencies, American expectations will become more acheivable and (one hopes) avoid the bust part of the cycle. Of course when Google has a market cap something like 10 times what the Chinese are offering for Noranda, I think we have a ways to go :)

Dallas GEP 18:41 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Thnaks Bahrain...

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 18:39 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
London// That's true but remember ECB in recent statement said a cheap USD would help them recover i.e. the US trade deficit. Tritchet speaks out of both sides of his blankety-blanking mouth and I wouldn't trust a word of anything the "man" says.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 18:36 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin//Thank you! You're a gold mine on the Gold Coast. I accept your gracious gift, will email Jay now. I've got an idea for your thesis.

london 18:34 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
The dollar may recover in the next few days before resuming its decline, said Alex Patelis, a senior currency strategist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in London. The 14-day relative strength index for the dollar versus the euro rose to 77.4 on Oct. 22 from 63.6 a week earlier. A level above 70 suggests the euro is poised to drop, and one below 30 indicates it may rise.

`Completely Oversold'

Futures traders reduced their bets in the week ended Oct. 19 that the euro would advance versus the dollar.

The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on an advance in the euro compared with those on a drop -- so-called net longs -- was 36,512 on Oct. 19, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Oct. 22. A week earlier, net longs were 38,095.

``The dollar is completely oversold,'' said Jan Amrit Poser, head of currency research at Bank Sarasin & Cie. in Zurich, which manages about $44 billion. ``Though since the trend is your friend, you shouldn't try to buy dollars in the face of it.''

The last time the euro headed toward $1.30, European finance ministers, central bankers and prime ministers united to warn that an appreciating currency would short-circuit the economy's recovery from the weakest growth in a decade.
At the time, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet denounced ``brutal'' moves in foreign-exchange markets. The currency retreated without the ECB having to sell euros.
``The ducks are all lined up against the dollar,'' said ABN's McMahon.

Bloomberg.

gold coast martin 18:30 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 17:40 GMT October 25, 2004
Quito ..to put it in a nutshell, the interest rate hikes and other data will be a hedge against the deficit thereby preventing the dollar from exceeding current levels...A GWB victory will be less volatile and short term supportive for the forex market as Kerry is an uknown quantity as a president...the real fate of the yankee dollar will be decided outside USA, namely in ASIA,..and it will be a commodities and central banks story ..i started work on this 2 months ago ....should you want further details get my email address from Jay and i will be happy to forward you my thesis when finished...g/t

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:29 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas...I think this chart is accurate
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/EurUSD1025.gif

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 18:28 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
ny amc 18:11 GMT October 25, 2004
quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 17:15 GMT October 25, 2004 -----What do you mean by this ??
I mean nothing..just noting the pattern. Patterns lead to predictions. Predict it, join the GV crystal ball(s) club! LOL ;^{)

Dallas GEP 18:27 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
OK well GBP shorts while certainly not convincing are starting to come into market now.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:26 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/EurUSD1025.gif

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 18:26 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
london 18:09 GMT October 25, 2004
I HAVE TO fight the compulsion to long rogue because of this stupid shorting risk...seems too "set up" to me somehow.. I hate being a greedy idiot & hate being flat. If there's a bona fide reason for this move, it sure isn't known to the public. Everyone tryies to make el chart-o fit their forcast so they don't lose face..doing a fancy two-step yet the US econ hasn't changed for better or worse in the last 9 days of this "breakout". There is something lurking that scares me into being flat. I would wonder if Bush's henchmen havn't started some insider rumor making a lot of big money sell USD in favor of CHF/Au. You just never know. Worst nightmare: Bush is an FX trader lurking on GV shorting el rogue!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:20 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
dow thurs min 10,000

ny amc 18:11 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 17:15 GMT October 25, 2004 -----What do you mean by this ??

london 18:09 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" thats what happened when Dlr/Yen turned from around 128 to do a rapid reversal in a few hours. down to 112

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 18:03 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Check €/$ candle chart in time increments of 1 day. Note the repetive pattern of candle lengths of the last 9 days including today: short short long, short short long, short short long. The last 3 trading days' open/close ranges including today thus far increased respectively by over double the open/close prices each of the last 3 days. This chart is not showing any signs of shorting (now) when a peak hasn't even formed (as of now). If the chart follows the past 9 trading days' pattern it will long tomorrow but in a lesser open/close range than today's. If big money decides to make the rogue look SO GOOD (like it does now) that a lot of us long it (as I am toying with) contributing to less resistance, what a wunnerful time to make rogue short, screwing all longers, making a killing on say an almost instaneous short (dive) as all the longers are squashed at the same time. Scares me silly.

Alicante RTN 17:48 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
The pressure on eurusd may be easing a bit. CHF has been leading this breakout from the very start and eurchf is retreating a few pips.

london 17:41 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Anyone know about the Gold rollover contracts for tomorrow , said to be rather large

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 17:40 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
GoldCoast martin// I've heard so many opposing views..hilarious and each thinks they're 100% correct. Almost like a convention of holy men. OK amigo, what's you take...Kerry wins, que pasa...USD devalues more or evaluates? Bush...elected...USD devalues more or evaluates? Lots of campain promises never materialize so negating the whistle stop hype, what's your real take say in 1st Q 2005?

MACAU MADAME 17:40 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
...tomorrow C9s will buy yankee dollars.....

houston ken 17:38 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
hey i cashed out on that spike , do u guys think that the euro run over ? i am not shorting i am on the side line

ny 17:38 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
in black jack you statistically have a better chance of winnning by betting all your money on one hand and thennever play agaon.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 17:21 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
PERTH// large funds, CBs & banks ARE forex. Private traders mean almost nothing in the movements who have less than $1/3 bln in capital to bet (not counting leverage). Some biggies hang out (lurk) here, but won't post their trades (obviously!), but don't count on you and me & traders like us small fries making one iota of diff.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 17:15 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Swissy still indicator of rogue.

Chicago JMI 17:00 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Perth WTR 16:40 GMT October 25, 2004
You do know Warren Buffett is actually hedged with T-Bonds? His short USD position means nothing.

Perth WTR 16:50 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
actually if you all cooperate, you can send euro lower, but so far the effort has been sporadic and it is just traumatic for some to hold anymore usd, so there you go :)

Perth WTR 16:45 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
watch now, euro above 1.28 again, nervous time for shorters

Alicante RTN 16:42 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
short usdjpy from 106.69. JPY is lagging other majors against the USD so there is more room on the downside.

Perth WTR 16:40 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 16:36 GMT October 25, 2004

in case of hk mom and hk son, it should read like son like mom :)
anyway, Warren Buffett's reputation is once again held true

gold coast martin 16:36 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   


Perth WTR 16:33 GMT October 25, 2004
lol..true,,..but they are actually dollar bulls long term.....g/t

Perth WTR 16:33 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 16:30 GMT October 25, 2004

like son like father, you will never know

gold coast martin 16:30 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Perth WTR 16:24 GMT October 25, 2004
Just for your info,,Soros recently has handed control of his major funds to his 2 sons..kind of semi-retired....He is just just trying to spook market into voting for KERRY...well informed traders are aware of this...so this is not likely to have an impact on forex prior to election...g/t

Perth WTR 16:24 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
if that rumour about Soros becomes a reality, well he's got a very good chance here to send euro to new high, as soon as those stops triggered for those entering short around 1.2830, 1.29 is easily in sight and one more push we have 1.30++

CBs will surely be teased to intervene, but i doubt if they will seriously do it at the moment, so Soros would surely love to do this

Bruxville Jim 16:23 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
censored stands for *a*s*s* (sorry, it's not anything offending in Latvian)...

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 16:22 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
WTR// Believe me I would LOVE to see retracement to 1.25 for a juicy long to 1.2950-1.30 pre election.. but like you I'm real dubious that'll happen. And why exactly would it? By 1 mo chart, it could. Butby 1 yr chart, since rogue broke clean thru the 1 year triangle over a week ago it spells rogue's range change to me..i.e. up & past 1.30. Being no CB wants to intervene it could seek it's own level with no restraint 'til the trade def is clearing up & US econ percieved recovering well (which it's not percieved now).

Bruxville Jim 16:21 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Highly relevant to FX this week:
http://www.censored.lv/vision/Voting_Machine.wmv
Have fun!

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 16:17 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
to usd/cad players..
to go 1.2274 I think enough corection now at 1.2223.
maybe from here chart wake up strong..
only have little time to stay here now (1.2220)..

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:07 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Maybe PT mama at 1.2810?

Perth WTR 16:07 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 16:01 GMT October 25, 2004

you will get that target level by election time
hype is all that hoping euro to be 1.25 again, usd/cad above 1.2450, usd/jpy above 109 and aud below 0.7350

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:03 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Mama
Are U buying euro soon
U have this level 1.2745?

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 16:01 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
NewYork frankie 15:46 GMT October 25, 2004 //Reason for posting: many traders in my position...waiting for rogue €$. I promised myself I'd not play the rogue 'til it peaks but I think there's merit in what you say, add on Soros etc. (rumor maybe but enough to move a few paranoids). Worth a partial position with tgt date day before election. 1.2750 and I enter (all things remaining as they are) but watching USD/CHF...to me it's an indicator for rogue.

BB, what's your take on that? Am I being hyped and should remain flat or do I make sence all the way to 1.2950-1.2930??

Halifax CB 15:58 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
FWIW, my ST CAD targets are currently back to 1.217 by tomorrow am; and aiming for 1.21 by tomorrow evening. If they don't make that then it's rethink time. & Perhaps it's more a prayer than anything else; I have some options that expire at the end of the week and they'll be ITM in the mid 1.21's (I took them on a lark when someone back in Sept mentionned here how cheap they were...)

NewYork frankie 15:57 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Perth WTR , agreed. 1.27 isn't a major correction. Nonetheless, compared to recent "corrections" that would be significant! LOL

Perth WTR 15:54 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
NewYork frankie 15:46 GMT October 25, 2004

friend, 1.27 is not a significant correction, it is not even beating friday's high.....if this is all usd bulls can do, that's pretty disappointing with all the calls saying significant retracement/correction

all in all, i share your view though that if there is any so-called retracement, it will be very shallow

Tokyo IM 15:50 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
washington DC Win, is that news. He have been talking about it on bloomberg and it is all over his website ...

NewYork frankie 15:46 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
The Euro could be in for some significant correction if it doesn't break over 1.2790 quite soon. The dailies are massively O/B. I would look to buy at 1.27. However, the with the US elections looming, increased violence in the middle east and strategical realignment of currencies, I wouldn't be surprised to see shallow profit taking and consolidation then back up and beyond the previous high. In which case, look to buy at 1.2740/50

gold coast martin 15:46 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
hk son 15:42 GMT October 25, 2004
While everyone has an opinion and a position the market will continue to function ...should euro not be at 110 by end of december..i will be wrong and the other side will be right...thats the way it works....After that date another yearly cycle begins....g/t

hourpower 15:44 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
may go long EUR/USD. waiting for green hour candle over support

washington DC Win 15:44 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Urgent buy eur/usd tomorrow.
George Soros is temporatily against bush y the greenback.
Buy now or stand aside.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 15:43 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
martin// Tks..I see now that you explained it. CHUCK€Y ;^) BTW it's margin call and stop loss time irritating noisemakers on the FF to attack you. Sorry, keep postin'. Hey, if you weren't good no one would be jealous! LOL

hk son 15:42 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 15:25 GMT October 25, 2004

thank you, i noticed Qindex once said euro aiming 1.1049 in this last quarter too, wonder if there is a revision too from him

Perth WTR 15:40 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
london 15:37 GMT October 25, 2004

when you say uncomfortable, what do you see in there? 500 pips?

gold coast martin 15:38 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   


quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 15:35 GMT October 25, 2004
CHUCKY,check the help forum......

london 15:37 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Perth WTR for now its overbought a retracement due (overdue) , all is needed is a excellent bit of data and the USD could pick up steam, not permanent but can be very unconfortable for those still holding the opposite direction - I prefer the view of BC and Gecko

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 15:35 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
I always keep 5 min - 2 hr USD/CHF and EUR/CHF charts up to see how USD & EUR are trading compared to the CHF "safehouse". For the past 4.5 hours USD/CHF has slightly reversed & been stable, for the past 2 hours E/$ has been stable. Appears as CHF is leading EUR/USD "rogue" by the nose.

hk mom 15:31 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Me think 1.2930 if not 1.32 is a offline day for the year.
son, why do you like to use others' initials?
I am as flat as a piece of paper right now. However, I will buy aud or gbp for the next couple of months run.

Perth WTR 15:29 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
london 15:22 GMT October 25, 2004

the usd bear rally might be halted temporarily but whether there is significant retracement is still in question and what size....consolidation of 100-150 pips from today's most extreme price is all i can see, it is gonna be frustrating for those trapped earlier as by the time they almost get out of trouble, the rally has started again, that's gonna be the scenario
prior to us election there should be tight range forming too so again consolidation area of 150 pips max is all i can think of

london 15:29 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Hope we see 1.30 euro printed feel authorities will start jawboning from Europe that they are taking all the burden.

gold coast mental 15:27 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
buy more usd & if it falls to 1.3100 buy more, all the way to 1.3350. i like oil at this price, sell oil. sell aussie dollar 0.7600, sell more 0.7700 and more 0.8000. am i ever going to get it right?

gold coast martin 15:25 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
hk son 15:21 GMT October 25, 2004
With due respect,in view of the sharp upward bias of the euro i am more comfortable with my 59 aud view than i was when we were in the summer range for 4 months....if it is .61..i will take it.....

london xyz 15:25 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin

dont be so petulant....you gave it out on here big time as if you were some kind of gospel authority on things....59c for the kiwi, 64c for the aud and all that...and some apparently authoritative statements thrown in.

maybe you just want to admit you were wrong and all these chickens that gorged themselves lower down can now shed the baggage at these elevated levels.

taken profit on the remainder of all nzd positions, small aud left for interest ahead of the election

gd luck

london 15:22 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Cairo MDR 15:05 GMT there you go from earlier today

van Gecko 01:04 GMT October 25, 2004
Perth.. its time to take some dollar profits off the table..
the Dollar is going down.. but break away gaps don't usually take place after the Dollar had already tanked 200 points from the 87 neckline.. Dollar longkies are being squeezed in the left nutz by Asian sharkies..

"09:09 GMT October 22, 2004
the Europeans curriencies had now level shifted vs the Dollar..
bulls & bears can expect some near term 'blip & tease consolidation' by the Dollar prior to pushing down to the next zzz'iesta leg......"
cheerios..

shanghai bc 00:16 GMT October 25, 2004

Dollar is highly likely to see the new lows for the year in coming weeks. But for short-term,it is now in oversold territory around Usd/Chf 1.20 line. Expecting some return dances around that line for a few times before Dollar resumes its fall of another leg till it is oversold medium-term. Fwiw.

Halifax CB 15:21 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Maybe a little good news for the USD - noticed that while all the major indices are down today, the US indices are much better off than most of the other majors. Of course that may be because it looks like the whole world is dumping their cash into google...

hk son 15:21 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 15:16 GMT October 25, 2004

with all respect, do you still see aud 0.59 target by december a realistic target? it looks like it is running out of time, i hope you are right but perhaps the view needs revision before it's too late?

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 15:19 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
london xyz 15:13 GMT October 25, 2004
I follow John Hardy over at S a x o daily..he's right on usually. Hardy sees 1.30 very possible prior to US election. I think there's still room to buy Euros in short term prior to election day. I'd close day before election, stay flat for election day then enter trades the day after. Election day with returns coming from here and there will be a rat orgy.

gold coast martin 15:16 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
london xyz 15:13 GMT October 25, 2004
My post was not dollar related...just passing on info that has been confirmed by CNBC...
btw...go and read my post of today about feeding the chickens extra wheat and they all come out crowing....dont bother replying....

london io 15:15 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com has an interesting political odds board with real money on the line....taking all polls into account....its moving today....check it out!

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 15:14 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 15:05 GMT October 25, 2004//not wanting to debate on the FF but if US activates heating oil reserves, bumping curde down a few percent, doesn't that seem like a piddly trade off for sacking the heating oil reserve? Would they do that? If ans is too long for here, hit Help Forum w/ it as I value your analysis.

london xyz 15:13 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
i see the needle is stil, stuck in the record, gold coast.


even if oil sells off 5 bucks it will still be at 50, hardly puts a dent in the rally.


the dollar will be under the cosh until the election is out the way, at the earliest.

Helsinki iw 15:11 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Better vote Bush then if the commies are out again. Strangely enough they are the only ones who have lately funded Bush´s
efforts to free the world. Pretty ironic, huh? No more politics from me.

Cairo MDR 15:05 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
london 15:02 GMT October 25, 2004
nope but can u refresh my memory

gold coast martin 15:05 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Cairo MDR 15:01 GMT October 25, 2004
There is talk that the HEATING OIL RESERVE will be activated with the current price of crude at these levels...as you know heating oil shortage fears is what has driven crude to these prices...should this occur expect a correction of 5-6 cent correction in crude price....g/t

SanFrancisco TG 15:04 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Thats pretty smart Dan. Just leave the nazis, the terrorists, and the communists alone to do what they want. Bin Laden thanks you for your logic.

The elections will have a tangible effect on markets going forward. The EU people who hate Bush do so because he stands in the way of the second try of socialism to overtake the US. Since EU markets are not actually mature yet (still constrained by socialist inflexibility) they will suffer if he is re-elected, as they have been with the USD devaluation/re-balancing from the previous overheated state which was conversely hurting the US economy.

What really needs to happen for everyone to prosper is the EU needs to get its collective socialist mind-set out of the sand and move forward without constraining peoples futures or the markets.

Cairo MDR 15:03 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
london 15:00 GMT October 25, 2004
i wish that would happen so we can buy it cheaper

london 15:02 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Cairo MDR rarely do you see Van Gecko talking about a retracement for the USD and BC confirmed this

Cairo MDR 15:01 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
54.20

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 15:00 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
HK son, raden mas..you guys are a trip! LOL Tks amigos

london 15:00 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Cairo MDR If it does break , you will see the Correction Shanghai BC and Gecko were talking about today

knoxville dan-k 14:58 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
not withstanding the world trade towers, being over board with terrorism is a joke, it has been with us scince the beginning of time and always will all u have to do is read your local paper and its their, saddam insane or bonny and clyde -- trying to put a end to it is not possible but bush thinks it is oh well guess well pay for it in the long run - imho

gold coast martin 14:57 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 14:53 GMT October 25, 2004
Sorry...disagree ...this view on Bush is shared by mainly euro lovers......i dont wish to argue and take valuable trading spACE.....G/T

Cairo MDR 14:57 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
oil 54.30, are we gonna see the breakof 54 today?

Helsinki iw 14:56 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
AGuy, you might be right to a degree. While I haven´t seen any numbers on the effect of consumers "boycotting" US goods, I have the feeling the effect neglible. Or have you better info?

Stockholm AGuy 14:53 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw 14:48 GMT: Disagree. Domestically, the candidates have different economic policy agendas. Internationally, the election will be viewed as a referendum on Bush. WIth much of the world disliking him profoundly, an endorsement by US voters will contribute to further animosity towards US companies and products.

hk son 14:52 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 14:33 GMT October 25, 2004

mom says she is topless, totally naked...keep buying euros! :)

Helsinki iw 14:48 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ In my opinion the Presidential election has meaning if you are a gay in the military, a anti-abortionist or something other with a vested interest. As far as the markets are concerned it won´t play a big part, bar a few short term swings perhaps. Other factors driving the markets.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:48 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
hk son 14:45 GMT October 25, 2004
bah !! :-)..LOL..LOL..LOL..

hk son 14:45 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:41 GMT October 25, 2004

that's good, we can both make the market...i'll take 1.2960 and you take 1.2690...you are the 6 and i am the 9, 69 possie deal? LOL

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:43 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Yen
And others with Low Z values are good for day trading

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:42 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
the z values these days
Higher Values Mean expect some strange Variation
EURUSD 2.71
USDJPY 2.40
GBPUSD 0.60
USDCHF 2.33
EURCHF 0.54
AUDUSD 1.90
USDCAD 2.15
NZDUSD 2.37
EURGBP 1.66
EURJPY 0.53
GBPJPY 1.04
CHFJPY 0.82
GBPCHF 2.05
EURAUD 0.43
EURCAD 0.87
AUDCAD 0.56
AUDJPY 0.61

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:41 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
hk son 14:38 GMT October 25, 2004
LOL :-). I like joke too.
btw eur/jpy will go to 135.00 as the bottom target, because of this I talk about 1.2690 not 2960 also 69 possie.LOL

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 14:39 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
S a x o says: "USD coming apart at the seams. 1.2900 and beyond a question of time... We may be over-extended for the very short term on the USD weakness. Anticipation of the Presidential Election is the key market mover and Friday's US Q3 GDP is the event risk of the week." FULL ARTICLE

Cairo MDR 14:39 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
oil at 54.60

San Diego DC 14:38 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP,
30 min chart for GBP/$ looks quite bullish to me, I use envelopes and Bollinger bands. My 2 cents is even the 5 min chart is long at 1.8390

hk son 14:38 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:36 GMT October 25, 2004

u like 69 position, dont u? LOL just joking mate

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:36 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
sell eur at 1.2960 is good but buy eur at 1.2690 is good too ( same numbers). prefer meet 1.2690 early than 2960..

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:33 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Any stats dudes here?

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 14:33 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
hk mom: You've been right for days, where do you see the top? As in top-top?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:32 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
if u day trade...and want to make money most of time
You should consider this..
Take an ma that u operat with...
Say 20 days
take the z=abs(average-clos(Now))/stdeviation(of 20 Days))
use that value to offset the day trade levels
should range 0 to 6
the higher the number...Means expect some mistakes from your normal tatics...as the number increases..increase your entry ranges.(as a day Trades)

Syd 14:28 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
S&P ruled in June that RUPERT Murdoch's The News Corporation Ltd cannot remain in Australia's S&P200 if it also wants to be in the American S&P500.
S&P said it would provide three weeks' notice before the start of the nine-month transition of News's shares out of Australia and into the US ,vote tuesday 26th Oct.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:25 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Another obervation over many years
When the intrument want to change direction...also changes the variation...
Say eur goes up with high volitity...when it wants to go down...it changes the volitilty in a significant way..(Chi Sqaured Test for sigma)...so in general I guess
when one has a level to enter..has to wait for the level + Major change in Volilty--from high to low or visa versa
(Day trading at those times are a faliure)

hk son 14:23 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
hk mom, let's buy euro shall we ?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:01 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
i.e.

if You are a day Trader..enter at t+2 level...not today's
PT that entry at lowest u think as for today...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:58 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Take it or leave it.. "Trading Currencies"
Guys overall this thing pops out all the time...it's true

Plan Worse Scenario in 2*Times Time Frame
PT Best Scenario in 1*Times Time Frame
SL at Worse Scenario in 4 times Time Frame
Trail SL in on average scenario in 2 times the time frame

I am sure in the long term this will be your conclution.
GT

pr jv 13:56 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Thank you DB 13:35 gmt

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 13:47 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM// Thanks VERY MUCH for your insight. Please encourage other traders from your beautiful country to post here. Our hearts go out to all those affected by the typhoon and quakes...Japan is such that any act of nature affects many.

OK SZ 13:45 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
on the cable there are still pretty good bids at 18390/18380 and offers at 18450..stops are located at 18340-45..sitting on my hands at this time..gl, gt

Tokyo IM 13:42 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB", personaly I do not trade $/Jpy cause I really do not understand this guys in BOJ-MOJ they alwayes slow it down or intervine in the most inconvinient moments for me. I only work in the direction of the main trend and do not look into making money on retracements. I would say that they will probably stay out today as I mentioned before. They already burned lots of money last month on keeping Yen up to the level. If you look at the performance of the Yen for the pust $ bear trend you will see that Yen could be much more expencive. Also Japan is shaked and typhooned all the time and it is still not known when other wave of earthquakes will come. We expirienced couple more shakes today so it is little by little shaky. That can effect some speculators since news known to make elephant from the fly.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:41 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
top steps of usd/cad : 1.2286 - 1.2324 - 1.2407
..

Melbourne Qindex 13:38 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The following reference is still valid until the next Asian session :-

EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels

Curve B : ... 1.2529* ... 1.2602 // 1.2614 - 1.2626* - 1.2639 - 1.2651* - 1.2663 - (1.2675)* - 1.2687 - 1.2699* - 1.2712 // 1.2724* ... 1.2748* ... 1.2773* - 1.2797* ... 1.2822* ... 1.2846* ... 1.2870* ... 1.2895* ...

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 13:38 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
koishi & IM// Tks for your views, we all appreciate this. Any other views from Tokyo or Japan on BOJ's intervention of USD? PLEASE?

Illinois DB 13:35 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
prague jv 12:57 I have been reseiving positiv interest on my long possie eur/usd . Now I do pay interest on long eur/usd .
jv it sounds like the swap rate. I had to pay on a long audusd posn in the past when the aussie had a fast runup, the broker said the overnight swap interest rate changes in a fast market. It should go back to normal whenever the market settles down.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 13:29 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo/IM: What is your take on BOJ propping up USD? Any word out on your side of the pond amigo?

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 13:26 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
This USD move is no surprise. Remember, I said Middle Europe was selling off USD some 2-3 weeks ago. Russa too, we know that. Middle East too we know that too. All that USD sell off HAD to have some effect, it was slower than I thought but it has begun to collect momentum. BOJ bought way less than their usual USD paper last auction. Mid East, Far East presently stockpiling Au...exiting USD. Lower USD means lower demand for US stocks. Sure enough NY opened low...DJIA DOWN 1.09% NASD DOWN 1.97%, S&P DOWN .97%. This is a self feeding fire..USD down, US paper down..US paper down, USD down. I see 4-6 cents less at or in 1st Q 2005 then mega reversal lasting 2-3 years (E/$ will short trend) to or past parity with Euro in 2007-8. Laugh? Watch it. Too many factors/indicators/fundamentals to list here all pointing at this scenario.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:25 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy have get low today. next step is 107.66-108.02-108.66.. TOPs

Dallas GEP 13:22 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
On both a 1 hour and 30 minute chart, GBP had a confirmed short, Entered short @ 1.8392

Tokyo IM 13:16 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
What is people's take on $ bear rally today. When are we going to continue or are we all done with bears ? It would be good to hear all kind of opinions on that topic.

pr jv 13:14 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
will do DC , thx. gl

Tokyo IM 13:11 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
My take on Jappie is like that. Even hearing rumors that BOJ will intervine make currency move in the opposite direction. So my guess would be that the move purely speculative with some big name buying yen as Sapporo mentiond. I do not think BOJ will touch Yen for now but I do not work there so it would be hard to guess.

San Diego DC 13:05 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Prague jv,
Check with your broker.

Sapporo Koishi 13:04 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
tokyo dealers saying little action from MOF until at least 105 levels, earthquake in rural areas so don't expect any influence on rates, clearing house bank in UK with very large buying round 106.33/37 for japanese names. could be covert operations?

Calabash TarHeel 13:01 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
BDQ 12:43 GMT October 25, 2004
anyone seling eur$

Already short from 1.2822. Going to try for a 3/1 r/r. Selling again at 1.2779 20pip s/l, 60 pip t/p. May backfire.
gl,gt

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 12:59 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Perth WTR 12:29 GMT October 25, 2004// Finally SOMEONE has looked at the 3 year chart. 9th straight day of UP candles on any 1 day chart one wants to check. Congrats Perth..you're winning. I think this move has gone about 1/2-3/4 of the way. Japan has an earthquake to manage i.e. less funds for proping up USD (besides their actions of late indicate less Japanese demand for USDs). China eating this up since Yuan is pegged to USD. ECB already said a weaker USD is good for USA's trade def. So all in all, this ain't over.

Hey Tokyo, what's your take on BOJ proping up (or not) the USD? We need Japanese commentary here amigos!!! Outahere...Valdez's Rule #1: "Never short a longing chart. Never long a shorting chart." Chuck B.

prague jv 12:57 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
anybody who knows please .

I have been reseiving positiv interest on my long possie eur/usd . Now I do pay interest on long eur/usd . do I miss something here???

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:47 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
sorry.. I mean 1.2470 (not 2430)..

BDQ 12:43 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
anyone seling eur$

KL KL 12:42 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Bush talking to Koizumi....."wait ah" don't intervene yet....wait a few more days for me to show some Merlin magic.... let Soros win half of this week then we see how much money he can hedge........+ all those hedge fund...otherwise Japan cannot recover....As for oil ...don't worry...wait another few days before I establish a better short possie at close to $61.8....I will release oil stock pile to teach lesson like metals, tin, soy...etc etc.....I make $$$ for govt, you make $$$ for your govt....all in 2 hours work....3 trillion....click ...

Spr Noods 12:39 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
me 2 Pak...Selamat Sore
me looking for correction 1.2690 ish

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:35 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd chart is making manuver to invite eur sellers. please thinking about 1.2430 !.. step by step in minor step will be passed..
also gbp/usd

Perth WTR 12:34 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 12:31 GMT October 25, 2004

yes, exactly and it is based on what the chart is telling me, unless you have something else to show me from your analysis that is good enough to change my view of course i will stick to this view, it is just fair and valid

KL KL 12:34 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
ok long again eurusd 1.2785 sl 10 below....hopefully for last hurrah until not sure when....price action supporting push higher imho

nyc jk 12:31 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Perth WTR 12:21 GMT October 25, 2004

that is your opinion mate.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:30 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
TLN jack8 12:25 GMT October 25, 2004
today I didnt take position. still bussy in other activity..

Perth WTR 12:29 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Chicago JMI 12:22 GMT October 25, 2004

i dont see it that way unfortunately, chart is telling me that whenever we have nonstop rally on weekly basis, it is when we make new high then we can start looking for retracement for several weeks, just look at last 3 years chart...the same pattern appears again and again...so if the same principle holds, this rally should extend beyond high in feb possibly to 1.35 before we have what you wanted i.e 800 pips retracement or so for several weeks

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:28 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
got 1.2778

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:26 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd .please focuse on 1.8315..but first step is at 1.8369 (minor bottom)..

TLN jack8 12:25 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Raden, when do u want to start selling eur?

Chicago JMI 12:22 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Perth WTR 11:58 GMT October 25, 2004
That's highly unlikely. The last time euro went up this far in such a short period of time without a retracement, it later fell about 800 pips over the next several weeks. Gaps like this fill. This isn't the soybean market or some illiquid commodity. It's best to just sit on your hands at this point.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:21 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd short term
still will touch 1.2778 (little eur buyers are here) and if show us 1.2775 thats mean will go to 1.2761 (eur buyers maybe here too) if break and show us 1.2758..welcome to get 1.2743.
step by step I think will follow that minor stations..
please focuse number 1.2643 !!

Perth WTR 12:21 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
if that is the case, how stretched are we now do you think? back to 1.26 and rise up higher than ever again? actually if you look at weekly chart we are not stretched at all

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:17 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
finnaly gbp/us got 1.8452 and then go down also eur got 1.2832 and then go down.. I hope you didnt losse that train..

nyc jk 12:16 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Perth WTR 12:06 GMT October 25, 2004

Medium term, I agree that EUR looks very bullish. Shorter term we are starting to get a bit stretched I think.

BDQ 12:11 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
what's stopping eur$ to break 1.2800 now

tk jf 12:09 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Perth WTR 12:06 GMT October 25, 2004
yes but be patient - its not how you start its how you finish

BDQ 12:09 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
the crude is down to 55.20 from 55.70

Perth WTR 12:06 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 12:00 GMT October 25, 2004

well you know what? fact is fact and the fact now is euro is bullish doesnt matter who is talking about it be it newly joined member or oldie member like u for example, if only you could accept the fact/reality

HK [email protected] 12:02 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Humorous reasons for Euro bullishness:

1) 60% American trade deficit.

2) 10% Oil prices.

3) 20% Europe have to pay it's share in the Iraqi war.

4) 10% J.Kerry as a possible next president of the U.S.

Cairo MDR 12:02 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Perth WTR 11:54 GMT October 25, 2004
totally agree with you but sooner or later big player will want to book thier profits annd this can happen with any +ve us data this week, this week could be full of surprizes
GL

nyc jk 12:00 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Perth WTR 11:54 GMT October 25, 2004

perhaps a better indicator of market psychology is when folks come out of the woodwork and on their first day joining the forex forum start posting bullish EUR posts after we have just had the biggest runup of the year. funny how these sort of folks don't come out before the move actually happens.

Perth WTR 11:58 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
now we have this traumatic euro sellers that they just want to get out as soon as price gets close to their entry price low low from the price we have now that will itself prevent euro from going back to the price prior to this strong rally...damage has been done

Perth WTR 11:54 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Cairo MDR 11:47 GMT October 25, 2004

well, in fact that has been one of the reason of this bullishness in euro, everyone keeps expecting and saying about retracement, reversal whatever when in fact there is no real reason too for significant dollar rally, so when it comes together, you have this market psychology at work at its best

Cairo MDR 11:47 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Guys in forum, try not get cought in that bullish sentiment, the euro has been going long from 2231 and so far the high is 2833, this means it has been longing for 6 figures without a correction, it needs a correction so it can gain more momentum, and like they always say what goes up fast comes down faster.
I feel also some people are trying to find some fundamental reasons for that, the fact that most of these reasons are true things, but none of these reasons has changed since we were in the range bound area 1700-2400, I see that the Oil is the reason for this.
SO be ware this sentiment can change in one or two hours during this week.
I think my opinon is opposite to many of the trader here in the forum, but everybody is entitled to his own opinon.
GL and Gt

BDq 11:44 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
that was for 5 mins timescale

BDQ 11:43 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
time scale = mins

shows a downward trend with MAE20 below MA40 & MA20

BDQ 11:39 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
MA20 & MAE20 for eur/$ r almost near each other

considering MA40 & MAE20, it is still an upward trend

timescale = 15 min

Paris Tush 11:39 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Thanks everybody. And I thought this would be an easy day...

HK [email protected] 11:34 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
For the weak hearts, if you bought at about 1.2790 you may close at 1.2825. for 30 pips .
Suggested S/L 1.2770

As I mentioned B4, again...wanta short not B4 1.2890/00.

BDQ 11:34 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
considering my past misfortunes, it would be advisable to open a position opp to mine's. currently i hv no positions open.

Eilat Dolphin 11:32 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
BDQ/ It will within minutes...

BDQ 11:31 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
had a buy order for eur/$ at 2793 but was not executed

BDQ 11:29 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
eur/$ hanging at 1.2800, which ever way it goes it would be by 50 pips

any predictions on the direction

Paris Tush 11:28 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Thanks LDN. Got it. Do you believe that there's still a good chance for a move much higher 1.2800 given this retracement. Sorry if asking an obvious Q - I am new to the game.

LDN LDN 11:25 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Paris Tush 11:17 GMT October 25, 2004 - when a currency rises 150 pips iand then falls back 40 pips, it is not a steep fall but a retracement.

Paris Tush 11:22 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Thanks!

HK [email protected] 11:20 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Well this is just a careful opinion... if the market will reach 1.2890/00,
a big fight will ensue between the bulls and the bears(If the bears will give way...another big Euro upmove).
So if one wants to risk his money against the trend, better try at that level(1.2890).
But this is not a normal trading day, so the small money should think twice. GL/GT to all.

Paris Tush 11:17 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Any idea why the sharp fall of EUR/USD? Thanks

Melbourne Qindex 11:16 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

BDQ 11:13 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
it keeps on fluctuating 10 pips. you may take a position when the direction but when you open the position it might go back 10 pips. so in the other position it would be +10 pips and when it shows a trend you can close the opp position.

is the above method recommendable?

Chicago JMI 11:09 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
BDQ 11:07 GMT October 25, 2004
How about when the market moves in that particular direction just enter a position? Why waste money paying the spread twice for two opposing positions?

BDQ 11:07 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
is it advisable to take two opp positions on the same pair & then when the market moves in a particular direction then immediately close down the position in the opp direction

SanFrancisco TG 11:03 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Most pairs now in the process of discovering whether or not they will flip the bias, this is the critical time period now I think.

HK [email protected] 11:02 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
How about a trade.... Buy euro at 1.2790 for 1.2890/00 your own S/L
Any ideas???

Chicago JMI 11:00 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Weekly trendline going back to 1995 was just touched on euro. Should see some resistance.

ICT ML 10:52 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Eur-Usd in hourly chart up channel has touched the top at session highs and the bottom is at 1.2650 where it broke from. Possible chance to retest 1.2650 if NY decides to come out selling instead of buying.
We bot break of 1.2800 in London but don't like the lack of follow through so far. Won't fall in love with it if it heads south as can alway sbuy lower in that case.

HK [email protected] 10:50 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
For longer point of View, I want to remind about the saucer unfolding before our eyes so fast on the daily chart.
For the time being 1.3050 target is still possible.
Daily RSI(14), is well extended, and higher prices may be accompanied with DIV. on the PRICE/RSI.

There is no such thing like oversold dollar by this time, because there are still lot of $$$ and dollar nominated instruments to be sold.

HK [email protected] 09:39 GMT October 16, 2004
My view about Euro...Keep it simple.
Macd(26,12,9)- not yet O.B.
Find another indicator hmmmmmm....
last close divided by S.m.a(250)=1.0198 pffff. too near the s.m.a
I suspect that the daily chart begins to form a new saucer with a beginning at Feb. high.
And why a saucer???...As i mentioned Y.day not too much Res. Is left to the high of Feb.
Rough estimate for long term, a target for this saucer is around
= 1.4---. add roughly depth to Feb.. high.

Dallas Mauricio 10:47 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
I am done for the day. Going to take the advice of some members of the board and shut down my computer after a 48 pip gain on Cable. GL to all.

london 10:41 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Hawk cheers Hawk

HK Kevin 10:41 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 10:23 GMT, I already closed the chart windows and take a break after CAD & EUR break 1.2400 and 1.2650. A very poor trading month for me in Oct.

Dallas Mauricio 10:40 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Cable's 5 & 15 MA's kissing again on 3 minute chart.

Moscow Hawk 10:34 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Hi, London. I hope you are getting well. 0.75-76 likely will limit aussie upside in this run and good chance we will see test of 0.7340-75 zone. Again as it had been in first four months of the year 0.7220-50 is the pivotal zone for upside. Good trades.

Melbourne Qindex 10:32 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:12 GMT October 24, 2004


USD/CHF : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


Curve C : ... 1.1920* - 1.1975 // 1.2030* - 1.2085 - (1.2140)* - 1.2195 // 1.2250* ...

BDQ 10:27 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
KL,

u r again spot on. if u follow a pattern u lose pips. u got to hv a new stretagy everyday & act according to the market: a thing i realized in my short time as a fx trader

Melbourne Qindex 10:27 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

HK [email protected] 10:23 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Few days ago at...HK [email protected] 12:03 GMT October 15, 2004
I suggested that if 1.2460 will be breached one may throw his charts out of the window.
In another post I called the attention that not too much Res. is left on daily high of 18Feb. 2004 on the Euro.
So things are looking that way now.
Of course it was a medium term projection.
AND crude oil did not even begin it's move.
Hmmmmm...See you at 59$/barrel

KL KL 10:21 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
BDQ one more thing sometimes it is also good to stay out of a market too or use smaller possie and very tight SL...the moment it is in profit take it and don't worry if it goes up 100 pips...be happy you did not lose. Like right right now Eur is like middle dancing...on a trend line....wait for it to go much higher and short or nearer to long!!Last week I lost lots of pips makng tight stops and then I started incresing my sl levels...more losses....different days have different requirement

Dallas Mauricio 10:20 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Cable's 5 & 15 MA's kissing on 3 minute chart. Something is going to happen soon.

Dallas Mauricio 10:18 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
You are doing the right thing. Sometimes it doesn't even help to paper trade.

i m studying the market right now to get some confidence back. m following the trends & taking up positions mentally.

don't care much about missing out on profits right now as i need to get my confidence back.

london 10:11 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Hawk hi long time no see, like your aud view as I remember your accuracy was good

BDQ 10:05 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Thanx guys,

i m studying the market right now to get some confidence back. m following the trends & taking up positions mentally.

don't care much about missing out on profits right now as i need to get my confidence back.

Mumbai Jay 10:04 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Athens: Where do you see the next level of resistance on the EUR? TIA

Halifax CB 10:02 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac = Well, I actually hope you're right - I much prefer trading in a positive market. Declining stocks around the world should be good for the US (I still prefer trading in the US vs here in Canada because it is a much more liquid & open market - Canada is a bit like trading on the pink sheets...) and a weaker USD - once it stabilizes - certainly makes the US look attractive in that sense. But I also have the feeling that a large part of the US market is being fueled by credit - just like the rest of the economy - and if that snaps it's going to be tough times. GL/GT in the meantime!

Tokyo IM 09:59 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
BDQ, one more advice. Follow the trend. (Trend is your friend.). Take a look at the daily, weekly monthly graphs and see where the major trend directed at. If you want to play lucky you might also work on a corrections. But as a rule I avoid that kind of things.

zhongshan boc 09:58 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
103

Haifa ac 09:56 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
kgli hmk 09:53 GMT //Feb low should be tested now.

Sapporo Koishi 09:56 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
haifa ac// Everytime there has been a big divergence btwn the transports and the industrials over the last 5 years both have crashed we have had 4 you want to bet it won't happen a 5th time?

kgli hmk 09:53 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
how far down do u think USDJPY can go before the japs intervene coz am holding ma entry order in EURJPY BUT its just continueing down and down!! any one know what levels we should watch?

Tokyo IM 09:53 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
I would wait for NY session open before desiding on Fiber. They can bring new direction or extended rally to the move.

KL KL 09:53 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
BDQ, I don't...this is a TRUE trading day for very short term trade so like I said use the shortest time frame when at bottom buy , when at top sell...everybody is MEGA nervous at this levels...no market can keep up with this extraordinary run. use MA to entry. Like writing this note I missed the 1.2818 TP so I move SL up to 1.2808 at least +6 pips gain. set your mind everyday to not lose and let it be 1 pip gain, it is good enough...be happy with 1 pip, do it 20 times and see it grow slowly!!!hope that helps...gl gt

BDQ 09:52 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
what level is eur/$ likely to test

Moscow Hawk 09:51 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
No new year high for EUR/USD – no resumption of uptrend. On the contrary so far it could be good selling opportunity. At least selling euro here 1.2800-20 with stop at 1.2940 could be well rewarded. Take profits on half below 1.27 and keep the other part for good without risk. IMHO.

BDQ 09:43 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
KL,

how do you get things right most of the time?

KL KL 09:40 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Long 1.2802 eurusd sl 10 below breakout from triangle 10 mins.....1.2825 coming up

Haifa ac 09:39 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 09:21 GMT //Actually, the more I look at the monthly and weekly charts--it seems that Nasdaq is holding EXTREMELY WELL and right after the election it is going to go straight up. So it feels. Dow Transport is at 4 year high in the face of soaring fuel costs-- that AIN'T BEARISH!

BDQ 09:38 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
a book written by me to how to avoid those mistakes is certainly worth $899.00.

coz m currently -$800, since i began trading on Ist Oct

LOL

BDQ 09:37 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
i m a newbie too with mini ac. made good profits initially but am -ve now after a couple of mistakes

watch out!

BDQ 09:35 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
i hv another very exciting books, it's about how to avoid mistakes in fx markets. price $ 899.00.

uk hh 09:34 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
am newbie but I have made today +89 pips on aussie....on friday I have made +35 pips on EUR/USD by now I am able to buy that book which equal the total of profits in two days 100 pips

ICT ML 09:33 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Just an Aud tech observation if .7500 is taken cleanly a flag pole target of 1.7775 would be a possible TP area and rebuy dip for .8000 from there... have to see how it plays out.

8 hr chart techs are in extreme oversold dollar conditions at these levels so don't know if it can happen without a pullback first to suck in new buyers.

Tokyo IM 09:32 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
uk hh - why bother sleeping at all. You can sleep 1.5 days while market is closed. :)

BDQ 09:32 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
i hv not traded yet

m just watching the market

uk hh 09:31 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Thanks
I can say that it was misjudgment I thought that EUR/USD will hit 1.28 during the week after coming data.BTW I am nt position trader.
AUD/USD + 89 pip profits not bad for today just closed it few minutes ago lol

sgp cc 09:31 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
uk hh - I think I have the same book - willing to part for $999.95.

london xyz 09:29 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
great weekend move for all dollar bears

looks very ugly for the buck.


my 70c NZD med term target has been hit, 75c AUD target just about.


cant see any meaningful dollar rally pre election.

Halifax CB 09:29 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
uk hh - sleep on the weekends, and take naps during the quiet time from NY close to Asia open

Dallas GEP 09:26 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Supposedly HUGE stops @ 1.2810 now No doubt that is being challenged

Rivonia PipPirate 09:25 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
uk hh 09:19 GMT October 25, 2004
Sure hh - tip #1 never sleep, or sleep with one eye open at least. Now coffee and other products from Columbia help here.

Tip #2 I have the very best book on FX, VERY rare copy, in fact, only one copy ever printed, which I am prepared to part with for $1000. Make me an offer I cant refuse.
Anxiously awaiting your response.


Halifax CB 09:21 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Just to change the topic a littlke (what a night) this week is the 75th anniversary of the Wall St. Crash of 1929; looking at the international stock incices it looks like there's some celebration (?) of that right round the world. BTW, BoJ is making noises...

Haifa ac 09:21 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Nodoz?!

Chicago Goofy 09:21 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
uk hh 09:19 GMT October 25, 2004

Buy euro/dollar and go on sleep.

Tokyo IM 09:20 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
uk hh, use automated orderes or wake up in the middle of the night.

uk hh 09:19 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
anybody tell me how to seize opportunities in fx markets?
I were sleep while EUR/USD SURGE UP and USD/JPY went down ..I wish that I were awake to profit from these PIPS

Tokyo IM 09:18 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
The [DOLLAR INDEX] has broken decisively through the 85.00 level, with this led by the break of the 1.2800 KO in Eur/Usd as the Euro is the largest weighting by some degree in the index at 57.6%. The break allows the index to test lower towards the 2004 base into 84.50-60. This area will provide a clear magnet for Dollar sellers, with the Weber and Blattner comments being shaken off currently as the verbal assault against Dollar losses remains relatively weak and lightweight. Looking ahead the US announces the details of the upcoming 2 yr auction today, with the auction due Wednesday for settlement Nov 1st. With US inflow data under the microscope in the wake of the August TICs data last week, the level of bidding and indirect interest will be monitored closely.

KL KL 09:17 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Actually GEP IMO..both team that lost to Boston and St Louis made the mistake of introducing the new pitcher too late in the innings...right now St Louis is doing the same thing...it is a coaching mistake...oh well it is good if Boston can win....80+ years is a long time to wait....imagine the person who catches the last ball in that game!!!2 million??LOL

hk ab 09:16 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
The first lot of people who would take eur long profit will do it when Eu officials voice out again. However, I don't hear any at the moment.
possibly, the first noise might be done at 1.2930.

Melbourne RIJ 09:14 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Should see some short term profit taking

KL KL 09:13 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
out eurusd short 1.2789 +19 pips is enough...

Dallas GEP 09:12 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Well Boston may be team of destiny this year. On paper IMO St Louis is BETTER but they don't play games on paper.

Sydney bl 09:10 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP and KL KL good luck to all of us who shorting EUR/USD now

Gen dk 09:10 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Chicago Goofy 09:08 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
This show is challenging my imagine. 1.2850 is my limit today...

KL KL 09:07 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
short eurusd 1.2808 sl 10 above......Join you GEP for a few pips gain....no risk no glory....btw Looks like Boston Red Sock eh!!

uk hh 09:06 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
anybody tell me how to seize opportunities in fx markets?
I were sleep while EUR/USD SURGE UP and USD/JPY went down ..I wish that I were awake to profit from these PIPS...

GENEVA FHR 09:05 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Do you experienced widening spreads on your platform.

Dallas GEP 09:04 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
ZORRO, YES it is risky, I postted that. Betting on a 1.2800 that was not there

prague viktor 09:03 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
EU ZORRO:I wish u a lot of those perfect trades mate ...but shorting the EURO @1,29 level it will not be a bad idea...G/L

Dallas GEP 09:02 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Euro closed at 95 , then spurted up -10

Sapporo Koishi 09:01 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Uk bank buying USD/YEN in large amounts around 106.33/37 no follow thru buying though!

EU ZORRO 09:00 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 08:54...

...IMO trying to short EURO today is very risky and a mistake, especialy with 10 pips s/l...

...Keep buying EUROS in all dips...

EU ZORRO 08:55 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   

hk ab 08:52...No...Only EURO CROSSES friend...

Perth WTR 08:54 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
off now, will be back during NY session later...just watch as soon as it opens, equity markets tumble and followed by more dollar sell off...extreme pain today for dollar fans

Dallas GEP 08:54 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
In Euro short, 1.2797, 10 pip stop...see if barrier is there...RISKY

hk ab 08:54 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Are you seeing 2.0 by year end?

hk ab 08:52 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Zorro//Do you trade gbp as well?

Dallas Mauricio 08:52 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Congratulatons!

NewYork frankie 08:51 GMT October 25, 2004
closed my cable longs +110 Target of 1.8440 a few posint off being reached as per earlier post

KL KL 08:52 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
out short gbpusd at 1.8425 +10 ....enough....my eyes seeing stars....have to go to toilet...what a trading day...no time to even record all my trades in the last 2 hours.....neck also aching..LOL

NewYork frankie 08:51 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
closed my cable longs +110 Target of 1.8440 a few posint off being reached as per earlier post

hk mom 08:48 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Zorro, I have the same view here.

EU ZORRO 08:46 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   

prague viktor 08:40....New High for the year...

...I will try to sell half of my "stamps collections" @ 1,2930...!!!!

Sofia Anmart 08:45 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/CAD-1.5595. We sell at the market for 1.5465.

Melbourne Qindex 08:45 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : 106.03 is going to be challenged.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 08:44 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
maybe caused by cross rate gbp/jpy, gbp/usd will get energy to get top 1.8454.
I remind you..please be carefull when gbp/usd touch 1.8454 , maybe gbp/usd sellers (big sharks) act there with greedy ..
please exit there if you have buy position and still be hold until now.. please!!

Perth WTR 08:43 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 08:37 GMT October 25, 2004

it is not thinking mate, it is there every now and then...been saying this since morning but people just won't believe it....the problem is every time we got new low people immediately jump and buy dollar... and look at poor usd/cad now

KL KL 08:43 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd long 1.8435 from 1.84 & SAR short here sl 10 below....looks like long and short are jittery!!

Dallas Mauricio 08:42 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone please recommend a good, reliable & affordable charting service? TIA

BDQ 08:40 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
sofia anmart,

for gld to reach 432, eur/$ would have to beak 1.2850 level or so

prague viktor 08:40 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
EU ZORRO:G.day mate! what the new high ur looking for?tia

Perth WTR 08:39 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
ding ding ding dollar index 85 level is gonna be tested soon, 105 usd/jpy might come sooner than expected, the sooner it comes the better, bring in BOJ...haven't seen them for long time

EU ZORRO 08:38 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Good morning all....!!!!

...as I said...

...The Run Up could be preaty quickly...DO NOT short euro...

...IMO, new High will be printing before USA elections...

Rivonia PipPirate 08:38 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Lol today reminds me of the tipsy sailor (Hero Harvy Ballacre) on shore leave, who finds the most beautiful girl ( Randy Dollah) standing on the side of the street who is willing to do any and everything for five bucks.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 08:37 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
anyone thinking usd/chf will go to 1.2125 with the first station at 1.2046 ?
maybe too early if I write about that number when most of people here thinking about usd will make new low again..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 08:32 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
sorry.. I mean big buying usd orders.not selling usd. LOL
hurry in typing..LOL

KL KL 08:31 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd short of 1.8422 at 1.84 & SAR long here sl 10 below

Melbourne censored 08:31 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Talk of 1.2800 NY cut barrier in mkt

Perth WTR 08:30 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
and please dont you ever think that this is over, NY session hasn't started yet, we might get a little bit of rest here after the short squeeze by european session guys and full attack later

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 08:29 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 08:23 GMT October 25, 2004
Sydney gvm 08:22 GMT October 25, 2004
crash is usd big selling orders come suddenly (from taking profit and able invite fresh selling).
my reason is usd/chf have get psichology limit today at 1.1969 although eur/usd still not yet get 1.2832 and gbp/usd still not yet get 1.8454.
maybe usd/chf chart drive the market today.
I still agree for usd bullish start from today..

nyc sa 08:23 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia , what is it that will crash today as u said ?

Sydney gvm 08:22 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Raden - crash which way ? I tend to agree with Perth - $ continues down

Cairo MDR 08:21 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 08:03 GMT October 25, 2004
I a like the rest of the crowd agree that there is a very strong bullish sentiment in the market right now.
But i disagree in one thing, i believe that the euro wont be at able to break the all time high without a considerible correction at least 38.2% of the latest moves.
I believ so becasue sooner or later people with take profit on thier winning trades and this can happen at a strong resistance levels or at any unexpected +ve data for the dollar
GL and GT

Perth WTR 08:19 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Goofy 08:13 GMT October 25, 2004

yeah it always happens after long range trading period, people are still thinking of picking tops and bottoms and it will take long for them to realize that the range is over and by the time they realise this, it is too late for them...this is actually the best trading condition you will see...

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 08:17 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
today will get crash. be carefull !! too many big sharks in today battle !!..

KL KL 08:17 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Goofy, you too...just out gbpusd 1.8423 + 40... I don't have the heart to see loss...I am not sure what I am doing actually...just using the shortest of time frame for my exuberance actions... now looking to turn so I short gbpusd 1.8422 sl 10 above....I may get heart attack soon...LOL

Chicago Goofy 08:13 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
KL Gud trade to you, When I took profit from Euro/dollar right now, I suddenly believe...I can trade without news, without indicator, without the history low/high. Gud trade to you.

Dollar is just like a ATM from newtrend start.

I learnt a lesson which summary didnt happen. Thanks.

Perth WTR 08:08 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
market psychology is back, yeah keep buying those usd as soon as we reach new low, next 10 minutes stops triggered boom lower and lower we go :) with this in mind, might as well call it 1.30 for euro soon, ouch!

KL KL 08:06 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Goofy, you may be right but I just longed gbpusd at 1.8383.. sl 10 below.this pair still under performing.... In my hit and run attack I think two eyes can only focus on 1 pair at a time ...Thanks for the info anyway...wow move sl to 1.8398 ...at worst +15 pips....your majesty show us the way up!!...reset sl to 1.8408 +25....need to stop typing and pay attention to my hit & run

sofia anmart 08:05 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
09:16 GMT October 20, 2004
Gold-421.80. We buy at the market for 432.

Dallas Mauricio 08:04 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Cable Boom! 1.8445 next resistance level.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 08:04 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
sorry.. I mean 1.1969(not 2169).LOL

Ldn 08:03 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Cairo MDR what your view, seems a bit far away at present with this price action ?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 08:03 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
friends..!!
be carefull with usd/chf when touch 1.2169. maybe usd buyers are there..

Perth WTR 08:00 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 07:58 GMT October 25, 2004

well, we are talking of rising oil prices, in short term to offset that higher aud means cheaper petrol for me

Cairo MDR 07:59 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 07:49 GMT October 25, 2004
somebody posted a link to a chart that has the same weekly view but more clearer
here is the link:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=612424

KL KL 07:58 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Higher currency...more outsourcing > less job > redundancy >no money to buy petrol?? or vice versa ... a funny world we live in ...

Chicago Goofy 07:57 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
KL, why dont u long eur here for easy 20 pips?

Dallas Mauricio 07:54 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Long Cable @1.8387, Tgt 1.8421, Stp 1.8352

Ldn 07:49 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Interesting forecastEUR/USD WEEKLY FORECAST

Perth WTR 07:47 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
go aussie, cheaper petrol for me :)
lalala...someone call BOJ please to wake them up? LOL

KL KL 07:47 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
BDQ standard...out eurusd 1.2779 -7 pips...1.28 here we come

BDQ 07:40 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
standard = $10 a pip

mini = $1 a pip

KL KL 07:39 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
short eurusd 1.2772 sl 10 above

Perth WTR 07:35 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
poor little usd/cad, even to get 1.24 will be an extremely exhaustive move, those who longed it on thursday above 1.2430 can kiss goodbye to their possies, 1.2380 is the most it can do

KL KL 07:35 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
BDQ what do you mean standard and mini? Let me know the leverage you are refering...out eurusd 1.2762 +9 pips forgot IFO out later could be USD +ve

BDQ 07:27 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
KL,

do u have a standard ac or a mini ac?

KL KL 07:27 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
ok long eurusd 1.2753 sl 10 below....

Dallas Mauricio 07:22 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Shorted Cable @1.8368, Stp 1.8394, Tgt 1.8334

GL Today everyone.

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 07:15 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Perth OK,OK... Let big boyz tell us what is true )) lol

Perth WTR 07:13 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
cable is heading for 1.88 at least, we have got double bottom on daily and indicators are still rising, in fact weekly bull chart is still in its embryonic stage

Perth WTR 07:07 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 06:07 GMT October 25, 2004

no mate, it is just the beginning, 100-150 pips retracement is all you got if any before the next sustained downtrend resume

KL KL 06:38 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
hmmm strange out 1.2760...+3pips never let a +ve trade lose....looks like big boys playing as usual...looking to long lower if seen

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 06:29 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
hello..
Eur/usd : chart tend to get top target at1.2834
Suggest : keep buying

GBP/usdq : chart tend to get top target at1.8454 or 1.8492
Suggest : keep buying

Aud/usd : chart tend to get top target at 0.7540
Suggest : keep buying

Usd/jpy : chart tend to get bottom target at 105.93 or 105.40 or 105.28
Suggest : keep selling

Usd/Chf : chart tend to get bottom target at 1.1969 atau 1.1857
Suggest : keep selling

Gold : chart tend to get top target at 434.00
Suggest : keep buying
..

Melbourne Qindex 06:28 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
JAKARTA BORNEO 05:18 GMT - USD/JPY : It has a great potential this week. See details in my page.

KL KL 06:15 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
ok long eurusd 1.2757...looks like last hurrah coming sl 10 below. lets see if it breaks 1.2820 decisively..risk now is on the long imho...so shorts are the call in the next few days...as for the Jakarta case as recently as 36 hours ago...just rumours...so I need those like Raden to confirm

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 06:07 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
IMHO Today's "Big fall" may show end of USD downtrend.

Syd 06:03 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
KL KL when was this

KL KL 05:57 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Those from Jakarta..is it true there was RIOT and burning of Chinese shops again??

Tokyo IM 05:53 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Anybody have any opinions on shorting Swissie from current level?

Perth WTR 05:52 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
nice, still above 1.2700, nervous time for euro bears still holding the pain from 1.25 ....NY time 1.28++ ouch! off for now

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:20 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
As if I had not put enough numbers up for the eur/usd pair I forgot to mention the immediate support for eur/usd, which is around the 2740-50 and 2680-90 area IMHO. GL GT

JAKARTA BORNEO 05:18 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
HI All,

I hope hv great day for all.Mr Q hv u view on usd/jpy still move down get 105... today?

Thank's

Perth WTR 04:59 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
ok ready for more euro bulls attack starting european session

Melbourne Qindex 04:49 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


london 04:49 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc much appreciated

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:36 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Sorry I meant to say I would always be one. I hope my errors are confined to spelling and grammar only LOL.

shanghai bc 04:35 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   

LONDON 04;31 -- Good morning.. Correction towards 0.7400--0.7350 is a good possibility before moving towards 0.77-0.78..Good trades.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:31 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 04:24 GMT October 25, 2004
Thank you BC especially coming from you. I am a student and I will always will be one IMO. You are one of my teacher believe it or not. I thank you as always for sharing with the rest of us your wisdom. Have a great week sir and Good Trades.

shanghai bc 04:24 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   

OMIL -- Good morning..You have made a great call on that break out of the range move..Good trades.

Chicago JMI 04:20 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 04:11 GMT October 25, 2004
After we see 1.85 maybe and only after a couple of down days.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:18 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Well I was not to far off when I thought that September would finally break the range for the summer and kick started the trend again for eur/usd. It was exactly the beginning of September that started this bullish run that looks unstoppable and ready to test the highs of the year. Like everything that goes up it must come down but how far of a retracement can we see? So far the retracement has not been very big and the eager bulls wait for any dip to quickly buy some more but this cannot continue forever, as consolidation and retracement is always part of the trend and must happen sooner or later. I have retracement numbers around this area 2660-50, 2580-70, 2510-00, 2440-30 and 2360-50. Support is also found around 2660-50, 2635-25, 2580-70, 2520-10, 2480-70 and 2440-30 for now. Resistance is found now at 2800-10, 2850-60 and 2920-30 IMHO. GL GT

london 04:15 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 04: now that was funny , could imagine a cartoon character yosemite sam jumping through the screen

london 04:13 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc sorry to be a pain,,but what kind of correction can we expect on the Aud if any ? thanks

Dallas GEP 04:12 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Mom, I see so Martin jumped threw your computer screen and forced you at gunpoint to take a possie???? LOL YOU are the one responsible for your possies NO ONE else.

LA fxnew 04:11 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
guys ..

is shorting cable a good idea ???

TIA

KL KL 04:11 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
OUT eurusd long from 1.2760 at 1.2784 +24, gbpusd 1.8375 1.8391 +16 nzdusd BE = +40 pips. Getting tired..eur good buy at 1.2740 for last hurrah to 1.2860 later also gbpusd at 1.8340.....Euro data will knock some reality to those eur longers later today...I just trade the extreme...everybody is scared at these level for both shorts & longers...Need to have some food / rest now for action later tonight...this is good trading day!!

shanghai bc 04:07 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   

Mom,Following Dad's advice was more profitable?

gold coast martin 04:06 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
lol..i love it...feed the chickens a little extra wheat and they all come out crowing...we still have a lot of ground to cover people....onw swallow does not make a summer....back to trading.........g/t to everyone......

london 03:59 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
hk mom problem is Martin sounded more believable than you did , on the Aud direction just shows doesnt it.

hk ab 03:59 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
strangely, oil man hasn't posted anything since the up run from 1.22.

Melbourne Qindex 03:47 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hk mom 03:47 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
thanks martin...... I am half dead following your advice to short aud at .7280 wee wee........

Chicago Goofy 03:46 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Finally got a meat from this dollar bear.
tp taken at 1.2230 from 1.2260 usd/loonie

hk ab 03:45 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
th//maybe this is the big move of every 10-20 years?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 03:44 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Shorted NZ

Ltn th 03:42 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 03:01// I had a horrible thought. If we get simultaneous parity on cad, usd, aud, etc Then everyone may decide to scrap fx??

hk ab 03:42 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
london//ok, thanks
martin//it's the hard point here.
I am not doubtful to see 1.2930 by Friday.

gold coast martin 03:41 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
hk mom 03:38 GMT October 25, 2004
lol..more alive than ever mom.....

london 03:40 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
flummoxed sorry my spelling is not what it was

london 03:38 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab afraid not , not today flumoxed

hk mom 03:38 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
martin you still alive???

gold coast martin 03:32 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   


hk ab 03:29 GMT October 25, 2004
LOL.....

hk ab 03:29 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
london, any new suggestion?

hk ab 03:28 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
give up the long dlr/chf.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 03:14 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
oh OK...

Halifax CB 03:01 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Re CAD & EUR - we've closed positions from early in the session (see targets yesterday around 22:30) to get off to bed. But I'm still aiming for a weaker USD on both, & will check out the final retracements before taking on new trades. FWIW, there's lots of talk these days (here) about whether loonie will hit par with the greenback, which might be ther forst real sign of the slowing down of the loony's strengthening. On the CAD histograms, the next significant modal point is 1.188, not far off the levels called for from the stnadard charts. On the EUR histograms, there was a significant modal point around 1.268; from there it looks looks like decreasing resistance until 1.3 (with repeated lows at 1.3020 & 1.3070, with a stronger resistance forming up at 1.3240...

We also have a 104.8 target on USDJPY, from H&S structure that peaked in early May (if it closes below 106.94). But this one is even more dubious than my other prognostications; JPY seems to have different growth factors (rather than the simple Fib structure often seen). That's something worth looking into. But in any case we do have modal peak at 106.16 which should provide some resistance, and a similar one on the upside at 108.25 (and a minor one at 106.95).

Just some thoughts I thought to scribble down before heading off....

Dallas GEP 02:58 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
BAhrain. on eur/chf because we should get bounce here for maybe 20-30 pips

Melbourne Qindex 02:58 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 02:52 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
EURGBP Daily minutes 0.6949 0.6851
This OK to short

KL KL 02:51 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Auckland , hk ab.... maybe US not as corrupted as Asian countries.......I think fugures will be getting better from tomorrow onwards and all currency, oil, will start waterfall retreat until 2 weeks after election. All govt. including cronies and corrupted have mastered the art of short term impact marketing to voters....we will suffer eventually, due to their folly!!!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 02:51 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
EURCHF Daily minutes 1.5423 1.5287
why Long Dallas?

Auckland 02:50 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 02:24 GMT October 25, 2004
One view from a friend, fwiw, if Kerry wins, Rubin will come back to the office to deal with the deficit.
Acording to news Bush won allready (just paper work- voting has to be done)everything has set for Bush win...
check currency over past period just before elections in US (same president going to stay currency weakening)

Ltn th 02:50 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
It seems like USD has bottomed for the moment and may recover a little for the europeans to have their bite at 100 to 200 pips shorting it. Same in NY?

Dallas GEP 02:47 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Gotcha BAHRAIN..like the 20-30 pip deal

RE: Eur/CHF 1.5330 looks like it will be a short term LOW for now. You could try LONGS from there with 23 pip stop

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 02:47 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Just Has to be to your Favour and Close to level

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 02:44 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas...
If went in with some...made profits (~30 pips)
Order near Day's High or Low

KL KL 02:43 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Long nzdusd .6984 sl 10 below gbpusd 1.8375 sl 15 below..not sure why maybe cos it is just stalling after a retrace

Auckland 02:42 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 02:27 GMT October 25, 2004
One thing which Bush should do but which he didn't is to make up the figures better 2 weeks prior to the election.
Now, the result is an uncertainty. What a miss.

He is making better figures can't you see. That is BEST from US

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 02:41 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
yes...try to get with some 20 to 30 pips...then reorder

Dallas GEP 02:40 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
And ALSO long on USD/CHF, correct???

Dallas GEP 02:38 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Well BAHRAIN based on your chart we should already be in SHORT on Eur/usd CORRECT???

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 02:34 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Just do as many as you can Long / Short...
being more cautions on the exits
not more then a day in

Philadelphia caba 02:33 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Good evening GEP, may I ask you on your view on EUR/CHF? Thanks.

Dallas GEP 02:31 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain my friend what does that mean??? "I am doing these orders with diversity" Give me an example please

SAIHAT 02:30 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
for this week will hit:

eur 1.2635

chf 1.2134

aud .7325

cad 1.2432

reuslt end of current week

hk ab 02:27 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
One thing which Bush should do but which he didn't is to make up the figures better 2 weeks prior to the election.
Now, the result is an uncertainty. What a miss.

SAIHAT 02:27 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
SAIHAT 09:48 GMT October 18, 2004
For this week..an indicator till me that these no. will be hit

eur 1.2316(FALSE)
chf 1.2458(FALSE)
aud .7241(OK Hitted)
cad 1.2679(high was 1.2621)

posted last week at week open





hk ab 02:24 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
One view from a friend, fwiw, if Kerry wins, Rubin will come back to the office to deal with the deficit.

dc CB 02:24 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
spc-cc 1:56
arg----rotfl

Dallas GEP 02:21 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD is being supported by Eur/cad LONGS so it is a deceiving pair. Generally what happens is that when AUD/USD longs USD/CAD shorts but not always/ It has it's MOST movement generally in US session. There are some fundamentals at play with CAD so TECHNICALLY it doesn't always follow the charts. I do not think I would take a possie now on it BUT I think it will long to 1.2302 and THEN short

toronto drunken kat 02:16 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
cad may fall more , cable's destiny is 8500
on dayly the major res line plus the both H&S neckline is there

Melbourne Qindex 02:15 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The mid-point reference of 1.2748 - 1.2797 is 1.2773.

Chicago Goofy 02:11 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Gep, May I have your view on USD/CAD? It seems 1.2200 looks like a steal bottom.
Wat do you think of its movement on assian seesion? Is it a pure stop hunting movement? I remember you compare the USD/CHF and USD/CAD at 1.2550 level. Whats relationship it just keep in history?
Thanks for your comments, gt gl in later session.

Melbourne Qindex 02:06 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels

Curve B : ... 1.2529* ... 1.2602 // 1.2614 - 1.2626* - 1.2639 - 1.2651* - 1.2663 - (1.2675)* - 1.2687 - 1.2699* - 1.2712 // 1.2724* ... 1.2748* ... 1.2797* ...

Dallas GEP 02:04 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
OK short term SHORT on usd/chf could be tried with 20 pip stop at 1.2020 OR a short term LONG on eur/usd from 1.2065. 25 pips on each then OUT

KL KL 02:03 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
This is a weak dollar day ( does not mean it cannot retrace and go down aggresively)...so long eur here again at1.2760... sl 10 below keep playing the range from 1.2819 to 1.275 till NY e timshould be the theme for today. Use very short term time frame to tp ...good... up 5 pips on this trade

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 02:02 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
I am doing these orders with diversity
EURUSD Daily minutes 1.2750 1.2474
USDJPY Daily minutes 108.6186 106.2814
GBPUSD Daily minutes 1.8464 1.8080
USDCHF Daily minutes 1.2326 1.2022
EURCHF Daily minutes 1.5423 1.5287
AUDUSD Daily minutes 0.7477 0.7265
USDCAD Daily minutes 1.2558 1.2302
NZDUSD Daily minutes 0.7030 0.6824
EURGBP Daily minutes 0.6949 0.6851
EURJPY Daily minutes 137.1078 133.9722
GBPJPY Daily minutes 198.6018 194.0982
CHFJPY Daily minutes 89.2972 87.1228
GBPCHF Daily minutes 2.2439 2.2059
EURAUD Daily minutes 1.7281 1.6917
EURCAD Daily minutes 1.5835 1.5519
AUDCAD Daily minutes 0.9278 0.9046
AUDJPY Daily minutes 80.1566 78.2634

hk ab 02:02 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
bc// Thanks for your kind assistance.

Melbourne Qindex 01:59 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

shanghai bc 01:58 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   

AB 01:43 --Good morning..Usd/Jpy is another animal..It may still move down towards January low..But it may not stay below 110 that long as long as RMB is pegged to USD..Good trades.

sgp cc 01:56 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
dc CB - tg is currently listening to his Karl Rove feed from the transmitter in his suit bulge... will be getting back to you shortly...

Rye, NY et 01:54 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Cairo MDR 01:28 GMT October 25, 2004
...
does anybody agrees that it is impossible to break the 2900-30 without a major correction...

I agree with you Cairo. I called for a major down move in the EUR/USD at 1.2650. The upper limit of that band ( in my system) was 1.2675. With that level having been taken out on Friday and this clear break in early Asia, the next critical point on the chart is 1.3000--but not until early December. The market will continue to range, albeit at a higher level--until that point. I'll be a buyer of dips up to 1.3000. All, of course, IMVHO...GL/GT

Dallas GEP 01:53 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
My view is that AFTER the election USD COULD make a strong short term bull run no matter who wins the elections. It is being called a DEAD heat here in the US on the election. My feeling is NOW tho that BUSH may win by the slimest of margins

Udine Cael 01:51 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
It's all about Oil and commodities.
EU officials have said that they would like to see a higher Euro. Since most commodities are priced in US Dollar and commodity prices are increasing, global inflation too is increasing. Then it would make sense for Europeans to want a stroner Euro. The USD has to lose value, it's the only way to fund the twin defecits.

Forget about the BOJ intervening, with the US Dollar being dumped at the moment, little impact would they make. The clue to when the BOJ might make a move is related to EUR/USD - after a weaking in the exchange rate. EUR/USD buy on dips.

Got to go.

Sapporo Koishi 01:50 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Off the Newswire: 128 Euro option barrier being defended slowing the pair's rise, but expect this to be broken soon, expecting 129.29 in coming sessions

Dallas GEP 01:48 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
OK pattern lately guys has been strong USD selling, then shallow USD buying JUST like we just saW ON eur/usd AND usd/chf. So with that in mind DON't try for more than 20-30 pips on contra trend trades because they WILL back up.

CA Clouy 01:46 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Thx GEP. Your call is always nice.
Closed the eur short. I should have not voilated the risk control and set the s/l too big at the beginning. Oh well. learnt the lesson.
GL

KL KL 01:44 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
out 1.2792 short to 1.2768 lock in +24-7 = +17 pips gain for this new day....phew. What a ride...may pop up again to the high of the day later and that should be a good level to short again if seen....Right now the rocket need to re-fuel somewhere...I hope not at 1.1950....he he . I will be pip raiding via shorts so will only post some trades busy busy day...keep an eye on gbpusd as well...gl gt

Dallas GEP 01:44 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Clouy, BC I think meant MEDIUM term momentum.

hk ab 01:43 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
bc//now that dlr/jpy 400-500 pips potential downside materializes. If we want to join the dlr/jpy long team, what's the better strategy? or simply long eur/jpy? TIA.

dc CB 01:42 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
my question is Where are the Republicans....maybe that "tg" guy for San Fran can enlighten us? save the $$$$ please!

Dallas GEP 01:41 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Closed USD/CHF longs @ +20 pips. This is good place to LONG euro if you are so inclined

CA Clouy 01:41 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
ok. If I didn't get wrong with bc's words, we might see much stronger Bull movement later on eur/usd? chilling....

Auckland 01:41 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Syd 00:58 GMT October 25, 2004
Gold hasnt moved on this Dollar Fall ?

Check GOLD???????????????????????????????????????????????????????
429.18

Algarve am 01:39 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Thank you, BC for your wise words. How about the so called January effect on EUR/USD ?

Is it possible that it can fail this year since there is a new medium term move on the pair ?

Thank you all for an excellent FF !!

shanghai bc 01:34 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   

Large corporate hedgers in Asia are not as sensitive as CBs or hedge funds or bank forex folks..But they have a large ammunition.. They have been believeing in range for the year with Eur/usd 1.25 as their ceiling..Now the trend is moving and they are now forced to go along with the move and they are heavyweights..Many more will join later making it a decent medium-term move..But as usual they are mostly late comers..Fwiw.

Chicago Goofy 01:32 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
I am totally messed up in this trend. On BOJ, it only helps the dollar bears go further after a retracement.

Perth WTR 01:29 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
BOJ, where are you? :) no chance at this level friend, forget about BOJ, 105 could be, but how much are they willing to put? unless they can do it from 105 to 112 in a day, it wont have much impact

CA Clouy 01:29 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 01:23 GMT October 25

Thanks Farmacia. I didn't enter any trade till this morning to wait the usd bear to finish. Guess I still got caught.

I'll clench a bit longer to see whether this trend will stop at 1.2800ish.

GL

Cairo MDR 01:28 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
sooner or later the big players will start booking profits especially we have a very busy week, i would say 2820 is a good level to start shorting euro for a 38% correction of the move that started from the 2230, will add more at 2900

does anybody agrees that it is impossible to break the 2900-30 without a major correction

Ltn th 01:28 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Looks like siaxo chart does not have a feed from sydney or HK on gold. Use kitco until europe wakes up.

Santo Domingo tht 01:27 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Allright Valdez I just sent GV a mail and described the problem. Don't know how you managed but your post

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 20:22 GMT October 20, 2004
poof.

changed the text colour to the forum background colour. Don't blame my Mozilla browser.

ny amc 01:26 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai..............If you dont mind could you explain your last post a little more . Thanks

shanghai bc 01:25 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   

Many large corporate folks in Asia have joined morning raid this morning..In historical perspective,the largest one day Euro move was made in Asia too.. Asian corporate hedgers are catching up as late comers as usual..And that means this momentum still has some miles to go medium-term..Fwiw.

Ltn th 01:24 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
On the main S iaxo has xauusd, xagusd as last wo on the bottom of list. You may need the right options or profile set

Syd 01:23 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Sydney traders now tipping near term test of $430. Stop loss plus speculative buying coming from across region But cautions that some players, notably in Japan, already starting to take profits

thanks again Ltn

melbourne farmacia 01:23 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 01:11 GMT October 25, 2004
From long term picture.. @ 1.2880... but euro might pivot around current level ( 1.2780 ).. GL

Perth WTR 01:20 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Vancouver BC WLV 01:16 GMT October 25, 2004

cheers mate, too many people want to become heros, let them do that

KL KL 01:20 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
short eurusd again at 1.2792.....sl 10 above. Each higher high short it could net you at least 5 pips...he he....

quito_ecuador_valdez "mosquito ChuckB" 01:19 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
WTR amigo, Like GEP I'm also flat. I wouldn't personally trade in this environment if it were free money to spend. My level of risk tolerance is much lower than what the rogue displays at this time. It's highly possible I'ill just stop trading FX altogether for a time, focusing on my other businesses until the rogue shows me it's going to behave in a way I can predict & trade with acceptable risk. I never feel compelled to trade no matter the hype or circumstance. Signing off, see you all mid week. I do have an equal USD/Euro account capital ratio suffice it to say to break even until things calm down to tradable topography once again.

US-USD news: Week's Synopsis:
Oct 25 Mon:
Existing Home Sales SEP 14:00 es=6.54M pr=6.54M

Oct 27 Wed: BIG NEWS DAY
Durable Goods Orders (SEP) 12:30 es=0.5% pr=-0.3%
Less Transportation (SEP) 12:30 es=0.4% pr=2.3%
New Home Sales (SEP) 14:00 es=1150k pr=1184k
Fed's Beige Book 18:00

Oct 28Thu: BIG NEWS DAY
Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 23) 12:30 es=335k pr=329k
Continuing Claims (OCT 16) 12:30 pr=2798k

Oct 29 Fri:BIG NEWS DAY
GDP Annualized (3Q A) 12:30 4.3% 3.3%
Personal Consumption (3Q A) 12:30 4.7% 1.6%
GDP Price Deflator (3Q A) 12:30 1.6% 3.2%
Employment Cost Index (3Q) 12:30 1.0% 0.9%
Gross Domestic Product MoM (AUG) 12:30 0.3% 0.1%
U. of Mich Confidence (OCT F) 13:45 88.0 87.5
Chicago Purchasing Manager (OCT) 14:00 59.0 61.3
US Fed Ferguson speak: Neutral Interest Rate at UCONN 18:00



Vancouver BC WLV 01:18 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD about to break above 1.2800.

Syd 01:18 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th thanks for that mine were not moving today

tt rt 01:17 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   


FOREX FORUM
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toronto dr.unken kat 01:15 GMT October 25, 2004
i use siaxio charts , no gold feed there

Vancouver BC WLV 01:16 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
USD getting crushed... get away from the oncoming train! Momentum could pushed it lower than most traders expect.

Perth WTR 01:16 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
perfect....1.28 for euro soon, gbp 1.84 handle now, and look at that usd/chf, 1.20 was easy
man, i just love mondays! there is no extreme today

toronto dr.unken kat 01:15 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
i use censored charts , no gold feed there

Dallas GEP 01:14 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
1.1993 long on usd/chf, 30 pip stop....1/2 normal size possie, 1.2025 TP

Tokyo IM 01:13 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
What is going on now, whu such a big bear rally. USD/JPY shows some effect of earthquake but that is nothing compare to a bear move.

Ltn th 01:12 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
syd // i used
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

the s a x o charts have a better chart although they may or may not have feeds from some centres

hk ab 01:11 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
halved position entered at 1.2000.
The squeeze got bigger than expected.

CA Clouy 01:11 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 01:05 GMT October 25
eur just breached 1.2786. what would be next? TIA. I'd seldom seen such aggressive movements happend in asia morning.

...still holding my eur short. Guess it's a wrong line.

Eilat Dolphin 01:10 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Van Gecko/ Tell wus when you see the Euro panzerdivisionnen camping on up there on the Great Bear lake...

Syd 01:09 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th can you post your chart, mine seem to be stuck thanks

KL KL 01:08 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
out eurusd +3 pips at 1.2772...he he never let a winning trade lose....looking to reshort again loss today now -7 pips

LA fxnew 01:08 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
what happen to euro and gbp right now?
at this time moving this much .. any clue why ????

Thanks

Perth WTR 01:07 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 01:04 GMT October 25, 2004

thanks mate, will take 50% now, stops trailing

melbourne farmacia 01:05 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
1.2780 euro & 0.7450 Aud... big Resistance levels in my book fwiw.. GT

KL KL 01:04 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
mosquito, Gep....shhhhh....I need the market...gl gt

van Gecko 01:04 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Perth.. its time to take some dollar profits off the table..
the Dollar is going down.. but break away gaps don't usually take place after the Dollar had already tanked 200 points from the 87 neckline.. Dollar longkies are being squeezed in the left nutz by Asian sharkies..

"09:09 GMT October 22, 2004
the Europeans curriencies had now level shifted vs the Dollar..
bulls & bears can expect some near term 'blip & tease consolidation' by the Dollar prior to pushing down to the next zzz'iesta leg......
"
cheerios..


Ltn th 01:03 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
SYD// Only if yo rekon going from 424 to 429 not moving.

london 01:01 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" very true and wise thinking

Syd 00:58 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Gold hasnt moved on this Dollar Fall ?

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 00:57 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
WTR//I personally hope you've longed the rogue and are making lots of money. But you'll get into trouble eventually trying to predict the future. Go with "% of chance of happening", never reaching 100%..always give your self a retreat route or two (infantry tactic that saved my ____). It this move patterns after 5 other moves since 2002 then yes we'll see 1.34 soon. But remember, when the other 5 moves happend, nothing crashed, nothing imploded...life went on just fine. As GEP said, this is a bear run..call it breakout or whatever nomenclature. All charts eventually retrace. It may be months, even years but they eventually almost always retrace.

Dallas GEP 00:55 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
WTR, I have no problem with admitting it and NEVER have. I am flat and have been. Could care less whether it longs or shorts, all I care about is going the right way.

Eilat Dolphin 00:54 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ Don't you think that the market is maxed out on the one sided players and still hits some stops ?

What will happen when the Europe big boys wake up and see the mess? The CFH for grab etc...

It's my opinion on this Asian openning night. Interesting night.
"Nuits de Chine, nuits calines, nuits d'amour".

KL KL 00:53 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Perth WTR, you are most welcome hope you are buying....otherwise there will not be any market...I keep piling my shorts as it goes 10 pips lower you keep piling the longs on is drop by 10...otherwise I have no opportunity to trade this exciting market...get ready to buy more .....please!!!

Perth WTR 00:52 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
gold approaching 430...anyway, done for today....good luck all

Syd 00:50 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
RBNZ likely to hike 25 bps at Thursday's OCR review, but this may be last hike of current tightening cycle

chicago joe 00:50 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
euro 1.3 by end of new york trading, boy am i gonna be rich!

saratoga sam 00:50 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Dollar index low 85.10

Perth WTR 00:49 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 00:46 GMT October 25, 2004

it is friend, u just won't admit it, let's see at the end of this week

quito_ecuador_valdez "ChuckB" 00:49 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Perth WTR 00:41 GMT October 25, 2004
It's no crash amigo..no more than 6 other times since 2002..again, view the 3 year fxtrek chart for rogue...this move is perfectly normal and a bit overdue actually. Every so many months the rogue behaves like this. LOL Yes, the stock mkt will vomit in 12 hours but it won't crash just because the buck slacked off a cent. A wise man would short the unholy dogwater out of the index of his choice to capitalize on panicea. (TKS Santa Domingo for my new nick suggestion! Cool!)

nyc sa 00:48 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
does anyone have the dollar index low so far ? thnx.

Dallas GEP 00:46 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
WTR, this is NOT a crash. What it is is a very strong BEAR run on USD. Watch usd/chf, usd/jpy

Perth WTR 00:46 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
perfect KL, that's just what i need, keep on doing that...market psychology at its best :)
30 more pips to 1.28, need more people doing that

Eilat Dolphin 00:45 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
This isn't FX its SF (science fiction). Unless some big US city just got wiped off, while Gspan just hit a tree while skying down some Colorado black slope like the Kennedy kid did, or his plane nosed dives because of haze, like the other Kennedy kid.

Thus USCAD at that price was a steal. And while I typed, it showed there were many hunters around...

KL KL 00:42 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
short eurusd 1.2775 sl 10 above....lets see how strong this bull is. Just feeling it is right now and the price action...looking to get bak my 10 pips...grrrrgh...

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 00:41 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Riviona & Santo Domingo//reply awaits on Help. GT amigos. Are you using a MAC, AOL or other non standard browser or OS BTW? I see the posts fine in MIE Windows. Chuck

Perth WTR 00:41 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
forget about extremes, there is no extreme now....it is a crash...NY session later we will see more of this...as soon as equity market opens Dow, Nasdaq, they all crash

Melbourne Qindex 00:41 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

tk jf 00:39 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
i hope eurusd goes 1.2810-1.2665-1.2999 - today - just to test us out

KL KL 00:37 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Arrgh...sl got hit so quick...never mind wait and reshort higher later....right now everything is getting hit up or down equeties, oil, dollar....forgot to hold my smoking gun till I hear more news on collateral damage in the financial markets....sidelined now waiting to pounce maybe later in the day when the euphoria dies down...wait a minute...high local dollar low equeties in europe/Japan/Asia. Seems like this week will be THE week...I prefer to either be buyer or seller at these extreme...depending on what you are buying/selling.....

Gen dk 00:34 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Perth WTR 00:33 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
i think everyone would expect usd/chf to bottom out now but i say no it wont happen yet....1.19 and lower can be easily seen due to all the rush to buy, forget about doing contra trades at least for today

Syd 00:31 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD rises to fresh 8-month high, now at 1.2758, as non-Japan speculators continue to test USD's downside vs EUR, CHF, says Tokyo-based European bank trader; but adds EUR/USD likely capped at 1.2760 in Asia as growing number of players starting to sell pair to take profit. "Speculators have driven up euro/dollar by force, overcoming profit-taking pressure, but that's unlikely to last long." Pegs initial support at 1.2650.

EU ZORRO 00:31 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   

...Trying to short EURO is a mistake....!!!!

...Keep buying EUROS in all dips...!!!!

Good Trading Week All....!!!!

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:30 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 00:16 GMT October 25, 2004
Good to hear from you BC I hope you are doing and feeling well. Eur/usd pair has broken first key resistance but yet to break the second at 2760-70 area. Still waiting on the retracement as the bulls push past the first key resistance 2710-20 area. The asymmetrical triangle was broken around the 2350 area giving a long-term target at around the 3500-20 area for now. Intraday indicators are in O/B area with daily indicators also in the same predicament. Weekly indicators are reaching O/B area but still have room to go to test the top of the year IMHO. I agree the % favor a retracement at this point but I have also been saying that since last week. GL GT

Dallas GEP 00:28 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Great point BC. Looking at the stochaistics on USD/CHF....it is been bottomed out on all the timeframes now, so that longing from 1.2000 looks VERY GOOD

Perth WTR 00:27 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
this is all psychology play now, for those who went short on euro they just want to get out quickly so euro won't go down big by itself....if they want to average down, their stops keep getting triggerred and price goes even higher..so there is no chance at all...this will just keep on going until big players decide to dump euro big time which won't happen soon....

let's welcome euro 1.28 today

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 00:26 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Santo Domingo// NO prob, all I can do is site the chart history. I don't want to debate a breakout. I'll be on Help in a minute..will address your question. Tks! Hope you are long E/$ at any rate..breakout or no breakout. It isn't important if we are in breakout, it IS important that you and the rest of the folks here make money. Right? GT amigo.

Santo Domingo tht 00:21 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Valdez.. perhaps I'm blind but I can't see any EUR/USD breakout happening now, I do remember a b/o at 1.2460.

And BTW there's a question for you on the help forum.

london 00:19 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 00:16 GMT thanks, sanity prevails

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 00:19 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP// Your suggestion for grabbing 30-40 when the chance arrises, closing on flat chart timess, then reopen later on signs of movement again is something I hope the crowd listens to. Sure, I feel we're on a breakout but one can still make all those pips by doing what GEP said...get some, when it goes flat, get out. Reenter when it looks like a rise, again, get some more, get out. You won't necessarily get all you COULD HAVE GOT but don't worry about that. You'll get quite enough by excercising caution.

The other way to look at it is to go ahead and put in a position and don't touch it but don't fund it heavily, let it long and long and long (if that's what will happen) yet use discretion and pip raid/day trade this thing too. That way you have the best of both worlds..a possie and a raider's creel full of trout and maybe the biggie as well.

Remember, the higher this goes, the more propensity it has of reversing...that's just simple fact. So keep those stops reigned in tight and don't get greedy. GEP said it..an emotional trader pays for it.

Perth WTR 00:18 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
nice trending up for euro, yeah new high soon every 2 hours
come on guys, keep shorting it on new highs :) free money for me on ur stops

Dallas GEP 00:17 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
All yen pairs are starting to long now including USD/JPY, so that of course is a YEN play (selling YEN that is)

shanghai bc 00:16 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   

Dollar is highly likely to see the new lows for the year in coming weeks. But for short-term,it is now in oversold territory around Usd/Chf 1.20 line. Expecting some return dances around that line for a few times before Dollar resumes its fall of another leg till it is oversold medium-term. Fwiw.

london 00:14 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab all I can say is "Life is a box of chocolates , you never know what your gonna get" ;-)

TLV B747 00:14 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
FWIW:

BOJ may divert the funds we all need for easy trading into paying the damages to Japan from mother nature...just a taught.

good night to me and gt to all of you !!!

TLV B747 00:11 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
good evening all,

just arrived to TLV with A319, not with B747 :-)

USD/JPY (long) - EUR/USD (short) - USD/CHF (long): all kicked me out by hitting my s/l.
EUR/JPY - GBP/JPY shorts: smiling to me.

looking forward to cash out with full cover of the losing three with the running two; I must admit that highs/lows went out of my initial forecast...it will not be boring this week !!!

gt all

KL KL 00:10 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Cannot believe I made my first ever 100 pips gain for the rouge...in fact 135 pips...cannot sleep all night . Cannot take the pain of not profiting anymore so close eurusd at 1.2742..>SAR (short)here SL 10 above ...for 1.27...BOJ waiting waiting for your Christmas cheer. As bullish as I can be I think Aud, Nzd and gbp is better long on dip.... Euro economy will sink soon due to high dollar....

Sydney Ge11Ja 00:09 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
I dont know if I agree with chasing the market up here, nikkei down 2% alerady and with earthquake, oil etc hardly great reasons to go selling usd/yen here aggressively. I think chance for a 24 hr retracement but dont go expecting anything wild , just chance for some very s/t contrarian profiting

Perth WTR 00:09 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 00:00 GMT October 25, 2004

agree there, if they want to intervene, they might as well do it now and do it big 5-10 big figures for example, what's the point of intervening for 100-200 pips only to give the dollar better level to be sold again...if they want to intervene before us election, they better go to casino and put their monies on the table...then again if they dont intervene before us election, well i am afraid by the time election is over dollar is dead already, they cant do anything anymore but let the dollar face its fate

people have been calling for reversal and retracement, and where is it? 1.24, 1.25, 1.26 and now 1.27....keep waiting and 1.30 will be there and still no retracement, i am just enjoying myself now watching euro tick by tick higher minutes by minutes
and everytime someone mentions sell for retracement, the next 10 minutes boom we reach higher level....so for those who keep shorting euro, keep doing it, thank you very much

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 00:07 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Perth WTR 23:53 GMT October 24, 2004
You can talk yourself blue in the face and some will never believe it until it shorts at 1.30+. Of course in any radical move you must excercise caution as it CAN whip around and bite you on the afterburner. As in any trading, keep an eye peeled for surprises, keep moving your stops, ride the wave but diligently manage your trade tightly and you'll be fine. Just because we're most likely in breakout doesn't mean didly squat IF it reverses and makes fools out of a lot of us. FX tends to humble those who insist they are right yet the future has not yet played out. Those who play this chart in the obvious direction it is going will win, but as inferred by a poster below...caution is always the better part of valor.

Dallas GEP 00:07 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Ok guys an emotional trader makes poor decisions so as hard as it is not to becomes wrapped up in all this USD selling, remember that the bigger players have a much different agenda than ours. Don't be too impatient to do a POSSIE just because you think now you may be losing your opportunity for an entry. I think it is BETTER to enter, grab 30-40 pips and then renter again then to enter and simply hold you position thinking you are going to get a ONE WAY run on your possie...it doesn't work that way. Pay attention to moving averages, proce action will normally gravitate back to them.

Medford, OR sm 00:04 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Questions on Stops/Limits

I have learned in my practices that bad stop/limits can hurt you as often as help you. I am trading in mini single lots on paper still. I have seen that if I set my stop to -30 and my limit to +20/30 depending on strength those work well.

It works great when I am hitting in the high percentages. Is this a good range or should I be doing them more individual?

I think after this week I will be confident in going live on minis.

Another question are certain days of the week better than others? Since I am new I have yet to see any kind of trend for days, but today has done awesome for me with almost a $200 gain.

Thanks again in advance for helping a beginner.

hk ab 00:03 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
london have you changed your mind yet?

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 00:00 GMT October 25, 2004 Reply   
Although in the past CBs have intervened, it's a false prop. Eventually the USD will just do what it wants and that is to devalue against the majors for the time being, then recoup by itself once the trade deficit is down (thanks to lots of exports because of cheap USDs). If CBs intervene I give them a LESS chance of doing so right now than before. Yes, they intervened before, we know that. But don't start counting your chickens before they hatch. This time, I wouldn't look for intervention. I would not doubt one bit the USD will complete its natural course, left alone, to hit 1.35 or even more and eventually 1Q next year it will self correct and without interventions. That's the way I see it and I would not quit longing the XXX/USD pairs.

 




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