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Forex Forum Archive for 11/04/2004

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Melbourne Qindex 23:47 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:19 GMT October 30, 2004
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is positioning at 1.2789 and the neutral zone is at 1.2789 - 1.2937. ......................


Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

Curve A : ... 1.2581* - 1.2633 // 1.2685* - 1.2737 - (1.2789)* - 1.2841 - (1.2895)* - 1.2944 - 1.2996 // 1.3048 - 1.3100 ...

Sydney 23:46 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
September's NZ$1 billion goods trade deficit, revealed today, along with "dovish undertones" from RBNZ last week "has given the currency market and those betting on unfettered rises in the New Zealand dollar food for thought," says ANZ; NZ's current account deficit heading toward 5.5% of GDP. With monetary policy shifting to neutral, current account deficit widening, "the apex must be close to being reached for the New Zealand dollar."

will be music to your ears Martin

TLV B747 23:40 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 17:03 GMT November 4, 2004

those wanted/needed to know all about the guy...I am sure that I said enough as I do not want the same guys to access me if I mentiom their names.

gt all

GVI john 23:36 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Analysis by PD Cumino

SURVEY:

First of all compliments to all the forum regard to EUR USD short term. The previous survey was the most bullish reading and proved correct. Albeit the INDEX is young I would note that since beginning the short term EUR USD reading had a 89.33% positive correlation regard to EUR USD direction. Anyway it is too early for a judgement and a single wrong forecast can worsen much the correlation.

COMMENT:
EUR USD:
1) Short term: relative and absolute bearish sentiment. Some previous neutrals became strong bearish (circa 20%, now increased to 34% from 14%). Strong bulls are roughly unchanged (20%). Volatility perceived is growing.


2) 3 months: slightly bullish sentiment with strong bullish and the bullish component of neutrals slightly increased. A probable reading, because of the change in spot, is that the majority is rather comfortable with a EUR high view, as you see by the absolute value which is the highest ever seen notwithstanding spot jumped.



USD JPY:
1) Short term: roughly unchanged, people donít expect a future increase in volume. The strong bearish diminished to 13% but also strong bullish fell. In absolute terms people are slightly USD bullish. The main reading is that traders maintain a range trading view notwithstanding a lower spot rate.

2) 3 months: while in short term people are slightly bullish / unchanged the 3M reading is bearish, albeit not too much.




Interest rates: unchanged. People are very comfortable with the November hike and the next pause. A 2.25% at year end for the forum would be a real great surprise.

OIL 3M: in relative terms the most bullish reading, but in absolute terms a neutral view. Anyway it is the first time that the average forecast is near spot, since some in the bearish camp moved over to the bullish camp. People are very uncomfortable with a of oil prices, and because they donít see current prices as equilibrium.

Sydney 23:34 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
U.S. election over Fed Funds futures looking at data, oil - and payrolls , large banks are holding sizable shorts in futures, tipping solid data and indicating view Fed to remain on tightening course. If data are weak, banks who were short, waiting for a Bush victory, will start to take profits, if jobs data show gain of 200,000+ it might be enough to make people think the economy will do better going into 2005 and could also solidify Fed hike talk for December.
Mitsubishi Futures

Damascus Susan 23:30 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
if NFP 200 is it dollar positivew or versa versa?

GVI john 23:29 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
The BiWeekly Survey of professional forex traders by Global-View.com, the original forex forum saw the mean forecast for the eur/$ for November 17, 2004 of 1.2729. The mean $/yen forecast for that same date was 106.28.

The mean three month forecast for the eur/$ for February 3, 2005 was 1.2894. The mean $/yen forecast for the same date was 104.01.

69% saw Fed Funds at 2.0% at yearend vs. 70% two weeks ago.

The mean Crude Oil price forecast for February 3, 2005 was $49.96.

For complete survey results go to:
Click Here

Italy Bastiano 23:18 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
florida vv 21.22
for medium and long term trader ONLY I am completely agreed with u. SOLD eur/usd here, sell again 1.30 if seen sl 1.3250 - BOUGHT usd/chf here, buy again at 1.1750 - sl 1.1500.
Eur 1.11 and us/chf 1.40 within 6/8 months ob.

perrie como 23:15 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
mah all those electoral rethorics seems now enough.

if the debt grows and baby boomers want some from the social security the government, whatever the coulour, will increase taxes in some manner.

bottom line
most thinking americans have choosed for a new Viet Nam more than lower taxes,

but time will tell

g/l anyway

Syd :-( 23:00 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP)--Two days after the Democrats took a drubbing at the polls across the U.S., California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger referred to leaders of the state's majority party as "losers." At a Thursday news conference, the Republican governor who branded Democrats "girlie men" during a budget fight last year, was asked whether he would listen to tax-increase proposals from Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata or other Democratic leaders. "Why would I listen to losers?" Schwarzenegger asked. "Let's be honest." As soon as he made that remark, however, he tried to suggest he was referring not to Democrats themselves, but to their tax increase proposals. Schwarzenegger said that Democrats had "lost every single ballot in the Bay Area" and that "the big spenders wanted to go with increased taxes, many different taxes and fees and all kinds of things and lost all of that." "And in Los Angeles it lost. People don't want to be taxed," he said. He added: "Why would we go and follow a losing formula? It doesn't make any sense."



perrie como 22:59 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/11/02/bloomberg/sxasia.html

The article calls for US dollar and Euro selling from Asia
by multinationals

g/t

perrie como 22:48 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
IM San
domo domo

Tokyo IM 22:42 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Goodmorning all.

London e 22:42 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
NY Coolman 22:37 GMT November 4, 2004
1.2050 tomorrow. But note 15 pips is all Im willing to risk. If I was sure I wouldn't have a stop. (My bigger trade is to sell S&P500 at 1160.) Im off to bed now. Good trades.

NY Coolman 22:37 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
London e 22:34 GMT November 4, 2004
What do u expect in the near-term?

London e 22:34 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
NY Coolman 22:30 GMT November 4, 2004
I will follow it as far as it goes. We could see 1.25 but Im not a long term trader.

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 22:30 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
may asia range

1.2833 1.2889

1.1854 1.1917

0.7547 0.7593

NY Coolman 22:30 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
London, what is your target on usd/chf??

London e 22:24 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
I think USD is a strong buy on all majors.

perrie como 22:21 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax
interesting
I do suspect (but wd not expose myself to It)
that the Eur/Usd top has been printed today already

we will see

as do they say: when in doubt stay out

hk revdax 22:07 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
CYCLE ANALYSIS

Tomorrow's Special (Nov 5)
====================
Tomorrow (nov 5)... exactly...sell Euro/$. This sell Euro/$ signal will take either one of the following forms:
(1)Euro/$ will go up into the time window of Nov 5 and reverse down on the same day....OR
(2)Euro/$ will go up into Nov 5 and stay high at close...then gap down next Monday morning in Asia session.

Either (1) or (2) will mark 'a' cycle top of Euro/$.

London e 22:06 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Im buying USD/CHF here at 1.1879. Stop at 1.1864.

perrie como 22:06 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Usd range into tomorrow might
stay between 1.30 and 1.25 if there will be surprises on tom's data.

But charts are unclear maybe a closing at 1.27 tom NYC would be the best fit.

else if the interest rates explodes, (not plausible yet but always possible) just try to get any price as It could squeeze at least as in the 1998 with the LTCM $/Y crash. (20 pct in 2 days)

g/l

perrie como 22:02 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Well put It this way:

Talking contis

American stornger currency: CAD
European stronger currency: SF (gaining on both Gbp and Eur)
Asean stronger currency: Doubt BOJ or MOF could avoid a gloabl asean growth that is showing up with the YEN

SF MRZ 22:00 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Just a quess. Eur/$ range trade for the next 20 hours.

Ltn th 21:55 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
KL. Can you comment on current feeling to Malaysias peg?

perrie como 21:51 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
mah nothing to say except suspect there will be one or two leading currencies into year end, but doubt the euro and the pound, as they seem more consumer indexed currencies with highly indebted consumers not worth to pump in more.

g/l anyway...charts saying nothing for tomorrow

JHB JW 21:46 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
KL KL where is KL?

JHB JW 21:43 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
KL KL, good day to you and nice trade, which trading platform do you use, GL,GT

ny amc 21:39 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
KL.....you always seem to start the day off profitable. Good for you.

KL KL 21:34 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
locking in my gbpusd long at from 1.8419 at 1.8442 +23 nice..nice start to a new day...hope Asian session more volitile!!

Sydney 21:30 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th , no problem, It looks like Citigroup have really pushed the boat out this time with their predictions..

Citigroup expects 325,000; "if our top-of-the-market forecast proves correct, it will prove positive for the USD and equities and see bond yields rise" they say

Ltn th 21:25 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Sydney. Thanks for the link and much obliged for your trouble. It sounds a little like a Menzies approach. Carrots and a stick that some banks may object to.

FloridA vv 21:22 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Hi world.
Poped in to inform that I'm starting to build up $ longs: Usd/Chf open now and add to 1.18. s/l 1.1750, Eur/Usd open now and add to 1.30 s/l 1.3050, Usd/Cad - very risky but rewardindg, open now add at 1.18 s/l1.1750, and finally my lovely Usd/Jpy - open now and add at 104.50 s/l 102.50
All Targets: 1.33, 1.08, 1.32 and 126. GT
Time - 6 months starting from Jan 21
GT

Sydney 21:19 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
The major currencies are beginning to bump up against levels where G7 friends might disagree
warns CBA in Report

JHB JW 21:17 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Sydney and Ltn-th, I will have a look, GL >

Sydney 21:16 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 20:48 GMT for you

Sydney 21:15 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
US Treasury's Taylor:Flexible forex good for China
Taylor also defended Bush administration policies to cut the massive U.S. budget deficit and to encourage private savings - moves he said will work to bring down the U.S. current account deficit, the gap in international trade and investment flows with U.S. trading partners abroad.

Ltn th 21:11 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
JW. Cant remember exactly. But I thing either or both G-V and/or fxxxxcm provide links pointing to a common chart supplier where you can select alternative feeds. Havent used it for a while so cant remember exactly.

Sydney 21:08 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
JW http://www.netdania.com/QuoteList.asp

JHB JW 20:59 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Good day to all, I like posting in the graveyard session. Can any one direct me to a site where I can get forex Quotes other than provided by Trading platforms, and not delayed, there are pleanty of them. I will be much oblidged.
GL>

Ltn th 20:53 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Any whispers about how Bush will react to MOF insistance on weak yen? Will he allow Jpy latitude until China's revaluation or rate hikes or will he insist on pro-active measures by MOF?

Ltn th 20:48 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Sydney 20:05 GMT November 4, 2004
Good Morning to you and all.

You quoted:-
"... Bush Policies Can Reduce Current Acct Deficit"
Would you be so kind as to point me to a link, preferably on the mechanisms?

Sydney 20:41 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   

A few NY closing numbers

Symbol Last Change
CRB 282.67 +0.13
USD$ 84.52 -0.17
Bonds 113 19/32 +5/32
Crude Oil 48.75 -2.13
Nat. Gas 8.220 -0.532
Gold 429.7 +2.5
Dow Indu 10308.64 +171.59
S&P500 1158.51 +15.31
Nasdaq 2019.32 +14.99

Ldn 20:34 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Eurodollar futures contracts end near session lows following big declines in crude oil contracts giving greater expectations of Fed money tightening. Traders factored in a 95% chance the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 bp for a 2% rate next Wednesday with second 25 bp hike in Dec is now at about 55% according to floor traders

Sydney 20:19 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
JHB JW thanks, and you

Chicago 20:17 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
I wonder if the rest of the year is going to be dominated by an attraction to round numbers: AUD 0.75, CAD 1.2000, GBP 1.8500, EUR 1.3000, CHF 1.2000, JPY 105.00. 10yr yield 4.0%, Oil $50

JHB JW 20:17 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Sydney, Good morning to you, have a good day trading

Sydney 20:05 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning everyone seem someone is doing some talking

Tsy Taylor: China Rate Hike Major Step To FX Flexibility
Bush Policies Can Reduce Current Acct Deficit

Syd 19:55 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
BoE holds rates,chances grow next move may be down

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh63247_2004-11-04_13-01-38_l04652132_newsml

Ldn 19:36 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Arafat Gravely Ill As Doctors Deny Death

Syd :-( 19:20 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
CNBC Survey:US Oct Payrolls Seen Up 192K, Jobless 5.4%

KL KL 19:15 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
yawn...why gbpusd so low?? long 1.8419...taking it witnout thinking...not really looking at charts, to be short term basing

NY 19:09 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
USD near 3 more years?

http://www.specforum.com/e107_plugins/coppermine_menu/displayimage.php?album=lastup&cat=&pos=0

Ekb avk 19:05 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Hello frnds, think usd is ripe to correct a bit hier frm here. think it wud be wise to close out usd shorts. wait and c.
also think there cud be some spiky action towards 1.2920-40 in eur/$ watch out i think its not ready to go thru those levels at present. Good luck all.

SanFrancisco TG 19:04 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Tomorrow's key levels are very clear. 1.2800, 2850, 2900. My plan is to compare 10yr yield with Euro upon data release. If I see a disconnect prior to/upon release I will treat it as rogue bias.

GVI john 18:46 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
The BiWeekly Survey of professional forex traders by Global-View.com, the original forex forum saw the mean forecast for the eur/$ for November 17, 2004 of 1.2729. The mean $/yen forecast for that same date was 106.28.

The mean three month forecast for the eur/$ for February 3, 2005 was 1.2894. The mean $/yen forecast for the same date was 104.01.

69% saw Fed Funds at 2.0% at yearend vs. 70% two weeks ago.

The mean Crude Oil price forecast for February 3, 2005 was $49.96.

For complete survey results go to:
Click Here

SF MRZ 18:33 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Close short Eur/$ @ 1.2863, reverse long now

OK SZ 18:33 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
they are not confirmed as yet

Helsinki iw 18:29 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Just back from some old-timer hockey. Are these reports on Arafat having died confirmed. tia.

manila stubbs 18:20 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 18:03 GMT November 4, 2004

would you mind explaining how this works? with regards to fx market? i never got around to understanding it. 4025 will contain further $ gains and 4075 will contain $ declines?

SF MRZ 18:15 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Shorting Eur/$ @ 1.2880

Wien GD 18:08 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Any ideas on tomorrows empl numbers?

Bruxville Jim 18:04 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Off topic...
This is fun:
http://uk.download.yahoo.com/ne/fu/attachments/buildabetterbush.htm
;))

SanFrancisco TG 18:03 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
As I suggested yesterday the following levels have served as solid reference points for extremities..(4025 and 4075 in particular) .....

"I suggest considering the 10YR yield marks of 4025, 4075, and/or 4160 for additional insight into the performance of the USD tomorrow. The first and last are the extremities and contain further gains or declines as long as the yield is performing in line with the USD."

Same applies for tomorrow.

saint louis 17:25 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
any currencies that trade fast and furious like the EUR/JPY? I like trading that, but it is in a range right now

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:20 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 17:03 GMT November 4, 2004
....well. he did kiss other guys a lot...not saying...

Dublin Flip 17:07 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Mossad has a tunnel under Arafat's toilet???
Wow those guys leave nothing to chance. I guess you can only get so much medical information from someone's nail clippings -LOL

SanFrancisco TG 17:06 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
short sterling from 30 but not expecting anything more than small change and locked in the pennies. Do not see a real challenge of the figure after a good enough sell bias from Europe.

Stockholm AGuy 17:03 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
TLV B747 16:59 GMT: "the people who had access to his feces"...? Who would have that kind of... errr... "access"?

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:02 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
TLV 747//Visit Political Forum in 1/2 hour to continue..I will post some eye openers about Mr. Arafat. I welcome your input.

TLV B747 16:59 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
The story behind Arafat is stinky business, the people who had access to his feces knew for very long time about this story/illness.

Do not dare to imagine that Israel knew nothing, Mr. Sharon would never let him leave if he could comeback !!!

gt all

HK [email protected] 16:59 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Bush must help his king makers in the exchanges!!!

Sydney Alimin 16:54 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
bush mentions 'spending discipline' to reduce deficit

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:51 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Arafat dead or not dead is not a major FX event. What would be important to FX is who's replacing him. It could be a $ neg if he's a known bad guy or it could be $+ if he's a reasonable person. Israel should jump at the chance to work with whomever it is..if the new guy is OK and they don't want to work with him then Israel is dragging us all down, a $ neg in the long run. Martin, LOL too.. (16:49 ---->)

Sydney Alimin 16:51 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
i am in coma condition now too, need some sleep...see you in the morning guys

PARIS DR. TIBI 16:51 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
President Chirac (France) visited Arafat today (for the first time) in the hospital. many people ask, why only today?
simple, he did not want to kiss with him!
this is the best prove that Arafat is dead.

Arafat's death have to do with FX exactly as ELVIS have to do with FX


anmart sofia 16:49 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/CAD-1.5525. We sell at the market for 1.5135.

NewYork frankie 16:49 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Arafat has just passed away. Bush was so sincere in his condolencies. Heaven help those Palestinians now.

Sydney Alimin 16:48 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
arafat is in coma condition, but i think they are preparing for the worst now

perrie como 16:48 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Also based on some works from coupla months ago

1.29 was profit taking for med-long termers, so take care here.

bi now

perrie como 16:47 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Overall think the Yen will strenghten much sooner than later, but might be tomorrow more than today...we will see..

for now am enough happy with the $/Y....

as presently do not like europeans too much :))

Eilat Dolphin 16:45 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
mw/ Official :French doctors say not yet.

Helsinki 16:39 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Just put put Order to buy USD at 1,29 (EUR/USD), think it will go down a bit from there..

HK Kevin 16:36 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
saint louis 16:24 GMT, too afraid to stand in front of the EUR bull train. Focus only on the less voliate cross recently. Short EUR/JPY some 2 hrs ago at 136.62 and also EUR/GBP at 6991, 30 pips s/l looking 135.80 and 6950.
Re USD/JPY: read an editorial in today's newspaper saying investment money will flow into Asian countries after US election. If it's true, 100 for USD/JPY may not be an unrealistic target. May be BC could share his insights with us .

Helsinki Rick 16:30 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Nothing new in Bushs speech so far, USD maybe only "artificial" push?

perrie como 16:30 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy seems overbought, but It's more related to complex flows that have been placed trough elections recently.

If you look at the chart there is a wider side starting since the end of September with tops around 137 138

While lower there are some significant lows printed 134 133

Think most will depend on the also overbouth eur/usd.

Might have a correction, but eur/usd and usd/jpy have to move clearly.

Think tommorrow weekly closing will start to show some clearance.

Stockholm AGuy 16:29 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
SkyTV says he's braindead. News...?

Sydney Alimin 16:27 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
well, looks like usd is taking a beating again, market doesnt like what bush says

opo mw 16:27 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Just heard Arafat died

Lndn Frnd 16:26 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
ARAFAT DIED

Bruxville Jim 16:25 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
"I meant it when I said it and I mean it when I say it now"
Hmm, sounds like it's common for the guy to not mean what he says...

perrie como 16:25 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
While reading data about large numbers of nations agreeing to Kyoto, and other science based protocols and agreements, one wonders when they will begin to use trade prohibition against counties that refuse to comply.

saint louis 16:24 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
dos anyone trade EUR/JPY here? thoughts??

Bruxville Jim 16:21 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Well, he just mentioned "spending discipline"...
btw, I heard recently that he has promised to cut the budget deficit 2 times in FIVE yrs time:)

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:17 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Agreed..Bush won't blab about FX. He'll say death to terrorists..1 trillion more for Iraq-nam, how well the war's going, "in it to the finish" "watchout bad guys (in other places)" etc. All USD neg.

perrie como 16:17 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Agreen on Bush and $. Think he will let the dirty job to Greenspan.

While he will be extemely busy working on post Arafat.
Also plenty of talkis on Iran recently.

Van jv 16:16 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
perrie como///Thanks and GL,GD

Bruxville Jim 16:13 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
FYI - CNN to bring Bush statement live any minute.

NYC 16:12 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Forex would be on the bottom of Bush's agenda today.

perrie como 16:10 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
SORRY almost forgot

reson is extemely good fundamentals compered +
ending an almost 20 years of recession cycle+
NIKKEI as the only cheap equity index where to invest
interesting also the ETF quoted in London FYI (china)

g/l in secular changes

Lndn Frnd 16:09 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
do you expect BUSH refer to strong dollar policy

perrie como 16:07 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Van Jv - I do respect Mr. Bc

but personally am waiting near to 100-102, maybe this month, maybe december, but a lower november close FOR SURE.

Pecs Andras 16:06 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Just hearing in the news:
Arafat is in coma. French physicians are saying there is no hope for recovery

Van jv 16:04 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY----not good to mix with JPY/$ for clarity//////
bc indicated fair value 110,

Bruxville Jim 15:55 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
That's in 10 minutes

Budapest Daniel 15:55 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
around 1100 EST

Bruxville Jim 15:54 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
MDR//
-----------------------------------------
Chi-Town 14:37 GMT November 4, 2004
BUSH TO HOLD NEWS CONF AT 11:05 EST
-----------------------------------------

Tokyo IM 15:53 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 15:51 GMT November 4, 2004// Thanks, I will.

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:53 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM// thanks much for your most interesting posts..I encourage other Japanese traders to post too.

Cairo MDR 15:52 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
when is bush talking today?
TIA

perrie como 15:52 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Funny indeed! It seems the climate has changed latetly as all calling for their own currencies lower.

Guess a big protectionism war is spreading trough the net :))

g/l

Dublin Flip 15:51 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Sleep tight IM.

Tokyo IM 15:46 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
IMHO, last thing before I go to sleep. Japanese economy did not get any stronger and it is bindwed to US$ very tight so it is very unreasinable for Yen to be stronger against US$. Before the US elections it is OK and acceptable but after then thigs are desided and no more confusion it suppose to go back to where it was and suppose to be = 115 - 130. So only time will show if I am right. But I have very strong believe I am.

Cairo MDR 15:45 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
I would advise everybody at these levels to watch out and stand aside, bec euro is like a big ballon right now, few more blows before it is explodes,
and if ur gonna trade use very tight stops for your long positions and wide stops for ur shorts.

Bruxville Jim 15:41 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
BTW, Where is Oil man?
Not seen here after this last post:

-------------------------------------------
UAE Oil man 11:50 GMT September 21, 2004
UAE Oil man 13:56 GMT September 16, 2004
£/$ good downside potential for long marcher's to SOB close to 1.8150 during the next few sessions with a risk reversal over 1.8250(where things might be changing direction yet again ,or just ranging , but eyes always open for an adversary move against existing positions , as analysis are fine as long as they are not too costy) for potential targets 1.7500 and once 1.7460 breaks 1.6899..

Ä$, still locked in a trading range with next confirmations located at 1.2020 and upside at 1.2360, I am still Ä bearish for the long term and in SOB's on each adverse move of the $ against the euro.

$/Yen Offers good potential of a sustained up move as long as 108.50 figures holds from here with a target of 1001 pip above current level entries, resistance located at 110.60 area which has to break to see a sustained and trendy upward move.

Ä£ Great potential here at 68+ for the next downmove towards 64 and 60 in the next few months..enjoy adverse moves and SOB at this entry levels with 6920 as risk tolerance.

AUD$, the wondrous pip rainer, as usual behaving in orderly fashion towards monthly targets at .6000 , sell points 7080/7120 , with a 'small risk' tolerance.

GL .



Still valid, and we are slowly approaching the sell points..
GL , may the force be with us
-----------------------------------------------

Fun to read this now. No offence though. I'm interested in his current view (as the mentioned ranges are not valid any more).

Cairo MDR 15:38 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 15:28 GMT November 4, 2004
You re right GA, but thing is, after the election out of the way and the recent slid in the oil prices, probabiliy of a corrective move is more than last week, especially at this record high levels.
Also as every week passes by the chances of a sudden corrective move is increasing.
Tom.s employment report will decide if we will see this correction this week or we will rally to 3000.

Tokyo IM 15:38 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 15:36 GMT November 4, 2004// All my life.

Tokyo IM 15:38 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 15:34 GMT November 4, 2004 // That is even better. China is probably the only hope to put Yen back into the place. Where did you get the info about China being the biggest importer of Japanese goods. I think it is too expencive for China to do that in lklarge quantities.

Dublin Flip 15:36 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
IM how long have you been in Tokyo???

Tokyo IM 15:34 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 15:27 GMT November 4, 2004, you are very correct but what I am trying to say is that not the US$ but Yen is way too strong to be true . Fundamentals just does not support it. As you know Japan is preaty much bound to US economy one way or the other. You can even think about it as State of Japan. Basic thing is thanks to US dollar we have to spend our tax money to keep Yen on the correct value or at least as close as MOF can. If yen were at 115 - 130 then we have no problem but currently it is way too crazy. Look at Apple.co.jp store for example. And compare it with apple.com. Prices are way off so it will be good for US economy but will hurt Japan witch in reverse will hurt US in a long term. I welcome Yen back to the real price.

perrie como 15:34 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
ref Tokyo IM 15:24 GMT November 4, 2004
IMHO Yen is at most 115 Yen/ 1 US$. As you know Japan economy is based on export and US is the main importer of Japanese goods. So to keep everything in balance as before Yen have to get cheaper before it will start damaging Japanese economy badly. My verdict is 115 - 130.

WRONG San IM

from this year the TOP importer of Japanese goods is China

GA TJ 15:28 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Cairo MDR 15:09 GMT November 4, 2004

I have been expecting a EURUSD correction for the past week or more. And have been wrong for the past week or more. It will happen at some point but when is anyones guess. I think the best bet is stay with short term trades.

Cairo MDR 15:28 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:25 GMT November 4, 2004
when is bush speaking ?
TIA

Dublin Flip 15:27 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
IM I think that trade imbalance is one of the things they are wanting to address. That's why a lower USD/JPY is one contrbuitor for fixing that 600bio yearly black hole. A strong dollar at this point would be economic Hari Kari for the global economy.

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:25 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
I think I'd prepare for a USD bull coming out of Bush's podium in that he'll give a hyped up gee whiz speach prepared by his speach writers to drive the public to "heightened sensations" to put it coothly. Not unlike Patton's famous gusto speach to his troops before boarding the ships for Europe. This will see a slight USD bump I think from traders, not mkt makers, who have been seducted by the massage (message). Technically also this E/$ peaklet from 0400 today looks like it wants to come down to 1.2790ish so Bush's speach shortly should help grease the rails. Should a bear instead emerge from Bush's podium..surprise for campers in "Parque Nacional de Bush". Can't wait.

Tokyo IM 15:24 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
IMHO Yen is at most 115 Yen/ 1 US$. As you know Japan economy is based on export and US is the main importer of Japanese goods. So to keep everything in balance as before Yen have to get cheaper before it will start damaging Japanese economy badly. My verdict is 115 - 130.

Sydney Alimin 15:21 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
what do you think is the real price of yen?

Tokyo IM 15:18 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
What I am trying to say is that the current price of Yen is way over the board and it need to get to the real price. I know that this is purely speculative but the truth still hold. I do not say that Yen will start going north now but that it will have to get back to the real price. It hurts export in Japan and they can not continue it for too long.

Sydney Alimin 15:17 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM 15:10 GMT November 4, 2004

if BOJ is really angry, they better start doing something :)

Dublin Flip 15:17 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
IM It must be time to change to green tea.
YOu'll be much better for the change and I don't think anyone will notice the worsening in US trade position-LOL

Dublin Flip 15:15 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
IM a can of coke would cost 200 yen over here.
Currency strength is in the eye of the beholder I guess_LOL

Bruxville Jim 15:14 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM 15:10 GMT - Do you think the can of coke will be cheaper when yen drops to 200???

Tokyo IM 15:10 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
IMHO Yen is way overvalued. I am living here and I see prices around here. 1 can of Coca Cola costs 120 yen and you can do the math. So I think BOJ MOF is very angree. Some one have to give Yen a break. It hurts Japan from left and right we need cheaper Yen to make our living. IMHO

Cairo MDR 15:09 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
There is a great chance that the euro has just topped temporery at 2900, so the next step most probably is a deep correction to the 50% fibo line of the move from 2230-2900, then 3000 is the next target.

Toms employment data is the key factor that will determine wether we will see that correction or not, also anythor factor can be bush speaking about a new eco. policy for the upcoming 4 years.

manila stubbs 15:08 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Mauricio 15:05 GMT November 4, 2004

bearish divergence on the oscillators. actually, for gbp, yesterday's high, the divergence was already forming. for the others, it just started on today's highs.

Dallas Mauricio 15:05 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Which way for gbp/$? Up or Down? TIA

manila stubbs 15:00 GMT November 4, 2004
possible divergences on the daily charts of eur$, gbp$, aud$, and $chf. even in gold. possible turn around for large correction?

manila stubbs 15:00 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
possible divergences on the daily charts of eur$, gbp$, aud$, and $chf. even in gold. possible turn around for large correction?

PAR 14:53 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Big EURGBP .7000 option being protected.

California Trader 14:39 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
thanks guys the problem has now been fixed, appreciate your assistance.

Chi-Town 14:37 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
BUSH TO HOLD NEWS CONF AT 11:05 EST

Helsinki 14:36 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Anyone expecting a technical dip at EUR/USD?

melbourne farmacia 14:32 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
or re-install plug ins etc..

Bruxville Jim 14:29 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
IFR: Earthquake in Northern Japan

SLC tg 14:27 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
California Trader 14:20 - even just rebooting the machine might fix it. gl

California Trader 14:27 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia - that is the strange part i did re-install the platform and the same thing is still there. this all started about 16 hours ago when the platform went down and i could not even log on and then when they finally got the platform back up i was missing the two buttons

melbourne farmacia 14:23 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
California Trader - call their desk or re-install platform.

California Trader 14:20 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia - I have been having this problem for the last 12 hours or so. the news button is gone and so is the chart button

Livingston nh 14:19 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
thanx Flip

Sydney Alimin 14:19 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
well it is clear that prospect of dollar is really bad, new lows for dollar and new high for gold says it all

melbourne farmacia 14:18 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
California Trader - working my end..

houston st 14:18 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   

Medallion -- looks like 105.50/30/00 are the levels to watch...good trades.

Dublin Flip 14:16 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Dunno mate. We are very US dependent (and Pollies are thankful of course) so there is always some risk but I'd have to say currently everything is still solidly working away dispite the dotcom bubble popping sending out some cautionary signals. At the moment we have full employment here. It's not always going to be that way but the Irish have a habit of changing horses if one starts slowing down-LOL

California Trader 14:16 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
is anyone having a problem accessing the news service with the ffxxccmm platform? my news button disappeared.

Surabaya Medallion 14:15 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
What is the chance for USD/JPY to go to 105.2 as I'm Long JPY right now with S/L 106.5. Thanks.

Dallas GEP 14:11 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
YEP you are right 15GNT, well I guess we can't count on that!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 14:10 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Thnaks JIM, you are probably right I was thinking it was tom.

Bruxville Jim 14:09 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Rather it should be 15 gmt as it's winter time...

Bruxville Jim 14:07 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP - 1.29 options were rumoured to expire today. Was it 14 GMT already (NY cut)?

Livingston nh 14:04 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Flip - some of the phone and back office jobs that US companies sent to Ireland (the start of outsourcing), are they moving out or slowing down? // VW settlement may be good for Germany but GM is still laying off and closing plants - Ford may make some major changes -- Jaguar, Volvo like BMW and Mercedes made in USA // EU expansion may have come at the wrong time

Dallas GEP 14:04 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
If you are long on USD/JPY 105.75/80 is support. If that breals I would close. Said to be option defense of 1.2900 Will see I guess

Chicago Goofy 14:02 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Thats it today. Close long eur/usd, nzd/usd.

Short it within 20 mins

perrie como 13:59 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Usd/Jpy between 100 and 102 might be a decent target for the current month.

Dallas GEP 13:59 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Mnaually took USD/JPY long @ 105.95

Dublin Flip 13:59 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
tg they don't have to do anything.
The mass media was giving out about the ECB that they weren't cutting rates six months ago and now they are giving out about them not raising rates. If it's a choice between a deflationary and moderately stronger euro or rate hikes to get the same effect I think even the opportunistic European politicians would prefer the former. The ECB has done whatevr it can to balance inflation and growth risks. The fault for European mire is squarely at the politicians fault.
You can't blame the mid-wife when you don't like the look of the baby-LOL

SanFrancisco TG 13:54 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Flip - considering your comments, everyone elses, and mine, think I'd want to be a drunk as opposed to a nerd if I was an ECB official, have enough to consider just trading this stuff let alone manage it. Perhaps thats why they continue to flabbergast everyone, they aren't stupid just three sheets to the wind.

Bruxville Jim 13:54 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 13:48 GMT // He just said it once more:) - not answering the question again...

Pecs Andras 13:49 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
One possible interpretation is that this is green light to EUR up to 1.40 or more in an "orderly fashion" !??

Pecs Andras 13:48 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Thsi guys is a true politician. Evading all questions about EUR, repeatign like a parrot that "excess volatility and disorderly movements are undesirable."

Pecs Andras 13:44 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Trichet talking now ... it is Q and A at the moment

new york george 13:43 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
buy gbp usd 1,8452

Dublin Flip 13:42 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
exactly tg. The strength of the Euro is very little problem and fixes more things than it harms. You want a stronger European consumer ??? You need deflationatry effects to mute higher import (including commodity and energy) prices??? Then you want a stronger currency.
I think euro will need to be alot higher before we have a need for ECB displeasure. In Jan of this year we were 15% above trend (using 200 MA) as the speed of the move could have been a something of a transposition problem. We have spent 12months in a ten big fig band 1.19/1.29. No one can complain about volatility.

Pecs Andras 13:42 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Now it is back

new york new york 13:41 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
we remove hedge sell gbp at 1,8455 + 0 pips

Dallas GEP 13:39 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
FFFXXXCCCMMM down again

Pecs Andras 13:39 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Guys
Is f*x*c*m down again?
TIA

Dallas GEP 13:38 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
What a surprize ZORRO. OLE' to the EURO bull

SanFrancisco TG 13:38 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Sterling 8420 and 8510 are key points in me eyes, as well as NZD 6900 and $yen 106. 10yr Note should hold above 4025 so USD downside prospects should be limited today.

PAR 13:37 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Amazing EURO stays so strong with all the non sense and inconsistent comments Trichet is making in his press conference.

EU ZORRO 13:34 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
correction...not Sorros but ZORRO...

...and I keep buying EUROS in all dips...

SanFrancisco TG 13:32 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
como - yes agree, thats what i'm saying, that EU cant get much worse than now so we should see better trade and deficit reduction over time especially as the EU reforms/is more flexible, and that all benefits the US defict as well. So the idea of a weak USD thrusting the EU into an (almost) depression doesnt hold water with me, although it has hurt the EU since the USD was too high and the EUR was too low among other things.

EU SORRO 13:32 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Hi all...!!!!

...I'm waiting for the new year high in EURO....!!!!

SanFrancisco TG 13:26 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
good stuff valdez

perrie como 13:25 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
ref: SanFrancisco TG
interesting comments however expect Western Economies

(europeans included due to a whole political-economical deregulation process that has yet to be accomplished)

to strive for couple of years (at It's best), while the other part of the World will grow (at least them, hopefully).

Consider also the most of Europe is commodities dependent.

new york george 13:24 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
now we make
hedge sell order gbpusd at 1,8455

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:21 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
...and if you think about it, raising €'s interset rates making €s yet more attractive would increase the rift between € & USD, something they DON'T want to do. The ECB can raise interest rates only if the Fed does (in the same proportion) and vice versa lest things really go nuts. Already € "packing" has occurred in many CBs in preference for the USD out of shear investment savy & will continue until the mother trend begins to change after the mid to high 1.30s...some say 1.40s and higher..but those levels are very speculative.

Sydney Alimin 13:20 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
censored, missed gbp/usd short by 2 pips, placed short at 1.85 and platform's price went as high as 1.8498

SanFrancisco TG 13:14 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
NYC - Thanks I'm aware of that. I've seen some correlations believe it or not that overlap in terms of time. Hit and miss though.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:13 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
perrie como, TG// I think between the 3 of us we covered it...especially como's point that the Fed acts in advance for softer effects than the ECB which puts out the fire after the house has burned down. dahhh

perrie como 13:11 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
ref ECB It's much more simple their acting is still classic school.
They need 3 times series of rising inflations to move interest rates higher.

Different is with the FED, which act in both ways: pre-emptive and post-emptive (as ECB the secon)

The reason the US dollar might stop loosing ground, particurlarly against Eur and Gbp (due to their economic problems) is that the FED hikes in advance, so to reduce
interest rate spreads while cooling down inflation more smoothly.

g/l

Dallas GEP 13:09 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
well adjusted BUY order on USD/JPY to be 106.07 (ASK)

NYC 13:09 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
tg. Last week's claims have no impact on October payrolls.

SanFrancisco TG 13:07 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
If we see a 10k drop in claims as expected thats good but I wonder if its enough to substantiate a 200k NFP gain tomorrow. I'm considering this in my expectations. Might provide a nice "lower than expected" figure for tomorrow. Big picture of course is Overall Unem Rate stays roughly at the 5.4% level, which is only rivaled by GBritain and Japan seriously, and crushingly better than the EU.

I cant see how the EU could get too much worse than present even as the USD depreciates, so the idea that at some point the EU improves, that should help buffer against the idea of a global depression killing trade and thus keeping the US deficit from declining.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:06 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
ECB didn't increase rates for these reasons:
1. There are not sufficient inflation red lights going off to spawn a rate increase.
2. Bank loans & bank profits increase with lower rates
3. If bank loans cost more, that's inflationary & not a help.
4. Cheaper loans spur the economies of the EZ nations.
5. The Euro/USD relationship & Chinese RMB will meld closer (the goal) rather than to diverge as has been...helps EZ exports to USA & theoretically partially buffers for at least that pair a propensity to diverge radically, whilst a cheap USD helps USA recouperate all the while in order to consume later.

There ya go.

BTW I've posted on Help Forum a quip on why we are not going to see retrace of €/$ to 1.22-1.23 levels this year & why some are not calling this large move a "breakout". It isn't a breakout as such. Any retrace will be to 1.2550 or higher. You will need to pull up a 3 year chart on that pair to view my example.

Dallas GEP 13:00 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Well someone it seems has been holding up usd/jpy . Will try a long from 106.05 if seen with 15 pip stop

Bruxville Jim 13:00 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
"KL KL 12:52 GMT November 4, 2004
I am so shock ECB left rate unchanged....does trichet have any clue what he is doing?"

Watch Trichet on Bloomberg @13.30 gmt for comments (maybe about high eur/usd as well). gl.

KL KL 12:52 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
I am so shock ECB left rate unchanged....does trichet have any clue what he is doing or does anyone understand his vision??? I am just waiting to short Europe index in this rally....

Dallas GEP 12:47 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Closed USD/JPY short for +35 pips

PAR 12:47 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
ECB as always UNCHANGED. Why hold all those meetings ?

KL KL 12:32 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd at 64 +10 is good, using 10 minutes & 3min charts...buy the dips is the game now

new york george 12:31 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
buy gbpusd at 1,8480

PAR 12:29 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
ECB will only change interest rates if told to do so by Greenspan or his succesor. Like last time.

perrie como 12:28 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Ive seen a better than expecte EZ unemplyment from 9 to 8.9, but those data are similar to those we have for inlation (extemely underestimated).
So higher interest rates and more strike to come trough Europe. The only thing to keep in mind is that the explosion of interest rates might come, high likely, from the US.

Also this dollar sell-off was one of the easier things to forecast. As the market is going back to basics or as a big surprise move near to come.

Personaly am for the second one, at least this week.

g/l now

Plovdiv Gotin 12:25 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Como/Agreed but I think if we see 1.15 ($/SF) that will mean E/$ =1.3350.IMHO

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:22 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Cape Town 11:56 GMT November 4, 2004
eur/gbp ... looking at the weeklies going back to July 2003, cross seems to bumping, at current levels, against a linear extension of the last 3 tops.
// ♣We can look at this two ways. #1, the € bulls can't punch through the fence so we could see hopefully a very nice retrace short. #2 the € bulls are persistant & will punch through. Forcasts of retracements are very stale albeit moldy from the 1.22 days. Everyone including me would love to see a retrace to 1.22-1.23 but me thinks that ain't a gonna happen this year.
So this could go both ways, my bias is in favor of the € bulls to a clear path to 1.30s.


4-Nov Thursday All times GMT es=estimate pr=previous
Left on today's skeet shoot:
EUR Germ Fact Ordrs BBK MoM SEP P 11:00 es=1.0% pr=-1.7%
EUR Germ Fact Ordrs BBK YoY SEP P 11:00 es=4.8% pr=5.8%
GBP BRC Shop Price Index 11:00
GBP BOE Rates NOV 4 12:00 es=4.75% pr=4.75%

EUR ECB Int Rates NOV 12:45 es=2.00% pr=2.00%

CAD BoC Depty Gov'r Kennedy Speak 13:30

USD Nonfarm Prodtvty 3Q P 13:30 es=1.8% pr=2.5%
USD Unit Labr Costs 3Q P 13:30 es=2.5% pr=1.8%
USD Initial Jobless OCT 30 13:30 es=340k pr=350k
USD Continuing Clms OCT 23 13:30 pr=2,823k


CAD Bldg Permits MoM SEP 13:30 es=2.0% pr=-4.6%
CAD Ivey Purchasng Mgrs Indx OC) 15:00 63.0 66.0
NZD Trade Balnce Revised SEP F 21:45





PAR 12:16 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
To stop inflation and avoid stagflation ECB should start raising interest rates sooner rather than later. Vigilant and well paid Trichet looks more and more as a very expensive barking dog which will never bite and is always wrong by attacking the postman instead of the buglar.

KL KL 12:14 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
ok back again after filling my tummy...should have waited eh on my long...never mind have shorted gbpusd at 1.8474 lets see how this work!!

perrie como 12:07 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Yes Gotin 1.15 a $/Sf might be on the cards, but suspect might take some many weeks, exept the case the market is behaving as in search of new safe havens.

If such the case eur/chf might drop somewhere 1.45 from present 1.53.

Also asean might strenghten.

But would also mean sharp rise in interest rates and oil to come soon.

Dublin Flip 12:05 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
como it's complicated that's all I was meaning. The other thing to remember is that Sharon and Arafat have a personal history that is insurpassable. On a more positive note, in the bigger picture I guess a break with their deeply entertwined baggage should be a good thing. I just don't know what will be the immediate climate with a power vacumn as a few jostle for position. Way out of my level of expertise I'm afraid.

Melbourne Qindex 12:03 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP : the followings are still valid :-

Melbourne Qindex 06:50 GMT November 3, 2004
EUR/GBP : Projected barriers from my Quarterly Cycle are as follow :-


... // 0.6828 - 0.6874 - 0.6893 - 0.6910 - 0.6921 - 0.6958 - 0.6968 // ...

Melbourne Qindex 06:46 GMT November 3, 2004
EUR/GBP : The current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle is 0.6835 - 0.6971 and the mid-point reference is 0.6903.


... // 0.6835 - 0.6869 - 0.6903 - 0.6937 - (0.6971) // ...


Other barriers from my 44-day cycle charts are as follow :-

... // 0.6829 - 0.6852 - 0.6876 - 0.6891 - 0.6924 // ... 0.6931 // ...

Plovdiv Gotin 11:56 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
$/SF new low around 1.1690....1.15.

Cape Town 11:56 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp ... looking at the weeklies going back to July 2003, cross seems to bumping, at current levels, against a linear extension of the last 3 tops.

perrie como 11:54 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Interesting iw and flip...considering what you are saying I might suspect the US market opening might start with a general US$ selling and then to recover during the week or if sharp enought at tonite's closing.

Seems interesting trading op, but seems to easy here jumping forth and back, still preferring a strong yen accross the board to come next weeks.

saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088 11:52 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning ..

There is possibility for those who will risk to Sell Usd/chf here not to see 1.2088 next 2 years..

its very optimistic that but why people play forex or casino if they dont risk ?

Thats my opinion and not suggestion..

Have a nice day..
nk

Dublin Flip 11:50 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Exactly iw. Before any new leader gets on the peace train he'll have to win over his own constituancy. It is quite the juggling act to still appear strong with the followers and moderate in negotiations. Without the former he won't be allowed to even begin on the later.

perrie como 11:40 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
IMHO Since the yen hasn't done much in during the recent elections, there is where we have to look at.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:37 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
better short euro like Hellll

Tallinn viies 11:34 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
MNI: One trader mentions that $1.2900 exotic and plain options to run off at the NY cut

next target for the sharks IMHO

Helsinki iw 11:34 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/
In general, political commentators seem to think ME post-Arafat could be even more unstable.

Having said that the 1,29+ top could be enough to force at least a better sized correction. Would be surprised to see the market just zoom past it.

IMHO

Tallinn viies 11:32 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 11:28 GMT - I think you are not alone here who is waiting this dip.

this dip may never come if all wait for it

perrie como 11:31 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Also most of Europe will have a lot to do withing the next 2 years (2006 elections), with the new consitution signed just a week ago.

Do not believe those politicians will be capable to reach those agreements needed to settle a common financial and foreign policy, so easily.

Maybe was temporary eur/usd top and will go down into end of year.

slv sam 11:28 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
sudden drop of 150pips in euro could wash out speculators and prepare better solid ground for eventual 1.33xx! imho.GT

hk ab 11:26 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
mkt is a bit disappointed of no BIG s/l under dlrchf 1.19.
Possibly, there're no more spect buying dlr/chf with stop now.

perrie como 11:21 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Ldn ..I do agree dollar needs some good news, whatever the sort is.

Guess Bush deserves a temporarily stronger dollar, so to have some weeks at least to set the things anew.

We will see...If such the case Eur/usd might drop 1.25 easily at once.

Ldn 11:17 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
As Arafat slips into a coma, markets could start speculating on the impact on USD of his passing. Traders note he is likely to be replaced by a more moderate Palestinian leader and reduce Middle East tensions. This would encourage crude prices to ease, and provide good news for USD

perrie como 11:16 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Also Eur/Usd good sell here at market, but you need stops to stay above 1.29...so I will not touch It presently...still some fog here due elections and oil.

TLN jack8 11:13 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
KL KL, shorteur/usd +1 pip!

Dallas Mauricio 11:13 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Greed Kills!

hk mom 11:07 GMT November 4, 2004
Market rule 101, don't get greedy

perrie como 11:10 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Usd/Jpy am sold small 106.30 for some 104.50 within the week.

slv sam 11:08 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 19:31 GMT November 3, 2004
slv sam 13:55 GMT November 3, 2004
all ready this week for e/$ 1.29xx, $/chf 1.18 and $/y 105.20!GT

I think we see above targets tomorrow Thursday!GT
Target within today Thursday!GT

hk mom 11:07 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Market rule 101, don't get greedy. 1.29 will be my own goal.

Ldn 11:05 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: Option Barrier Goes As Rumours Of Arafat Death Abound rumour mongers at it again

Dallas Mauricio 11:05 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Good call!

new york george 10:03 GMT November 4, 2004
Good morning,
I buy gbpusd at 1,8450

new york george 11:05 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
I closed my gbp usd at 1,8473

pips + 23

perrie como 11:04 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
It's seems the market is in search of 1.29 eur/usd..
maybe lotsa short term stops around here and up.
we will see what US Market has in store, now that things
are getting back normal.

hk mom 11:03 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
But I am on the late train of euro. So, GO euro 1.2930.
I remember Sorro will also unload some of his euros long too.

hk mom 11:01 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
tks london, got it.

Melbourne Qindex 10:59 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Colombo Marcus 10:11 GMT - qindex dot com

london 10:42 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
hk mom , you had a reply from :-
van Gecko 01:41 GMT November 4, 2004
hk mom 22:35..

perrie como 10:40 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Regarding the new Bush plans, will concentrente on economic developments in Asia and the problematic Middle to Far East zone, while letting the old Europe to continue with It's deregulation plans.

london 10:40 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc thank you for that explanation market seems to be getting a little ahead of itself with USD bear mentality at present , good employment number will bring larger rate hikes back into the equation.

hk mom 10:38 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
1.2930 is in sight.

shanghai bc 10:32 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   

LONDON -- Good evening..PBOC is likely to raise rates again gradually keeping space with FED but any revaluation is still a remote possibility at least for another 12 months..That means Dollar is unlikely to go down very much or very fast in that time frame..

hk ab 10:31 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Revdax// Do you have an updated view on Bush victory and fx? THANKS.

perrie como 10:31 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Eur/usd might soon move either ways 1.29 or 1.25.
Take care

Gen dk 10:29 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Ldn 10:22 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
JERUSALEM (AP)--Palestinian officials said Thursday that Yasser Arafat lost consciousness repeatedly in recent hours.
The officials said they couldn't immediately confirm reports that the 75-year-old Palestinian leader had lapsed into a coma.

london 10:20 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai BC not sure if your around , but just posted article l(london 10:07 GMT ) any view you could add to it would be good thanks

perrie como 10:17 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
do not think gbp and eur vs. usd might go much higher so soon.

more complex situation might require many more weeks to come.

so in between markets would favour asian economies, as the only economies having a decent and long term prospectus for growth.

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 10:11 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
eur low 1.2788 may high today 1.2888

or

eur high 1.2849 may low today 1.2749

Colombo Marcus 10:11 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex : do u have a web site?

perrie como 10:08 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Another low-test for Usd/Jpy seemingly on cards today.

london 10:07 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
China will be quick to put monetary policy to use while continuing to attach close importance to economic development, People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Li Ruogu was cited by state media as saying Thursday.
Li said China would also steadily promote reforms to liberalize the interest rate market while perfecting the exchange rate mechanism, the central bank-backed Financial News reported.
His comments follow last week's announcement by the PBOC of the first interest rate hike in almost a decade and the abolition of a 70% ceiling imposed on adjusting lending rates to suit credit risk. China hiked rates more than a year after introducing several policy measures aimed at slowing money supply growth so as to curb excessive lending and investment. In an edition of the newspaper distributed late possibly due to the long wait for a result in the U.S. presidential election, Li repeated the Chinese leadership's official line on exchange rate reform as well as the rationale for adopting a tighter economic policy since late 2003.
Li said while reforming the foreign exchange mechanism is both the "direction and target" of monetary policy, China will maintain a basically stable yuan exchange rate at a rational and balanced level. China's currency is only fully convertible on the current account and even then is kept in a tight trading range relative to the dollar. The 27 basis-point interest rate hike effective since Friday has prompted some analysts to predict further rate increases in the near future.


financialnews.com.cn/

Dallas Mauricio 10:05 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Good Day everyone. GL/GT

Melbourne Qindex 10:04 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Colombo Marcus 09:51 GMT - Send an e-mail to Jay at [email protected] and he will arrange you to see my page.

new york george 10:03 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Good morning,
I buy gbpusd at 1,8450

Colombo Marcus 09:51 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex :GREAT what do u think about usdchf ?

london 09:43 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
175,000 jobs gain in US Oct non-farm payrolls on Fri should be enough to start speculation that the Fed will hike again in Dec to 2.25%, says HVB. Sees payrolls bolstered by post-hurricane clean up, election jobs , with economists poll has figure rising 200,000.

Melbourne Qindex 09:40 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Colombo Marcus 09:36 GMT - I provide service for all major currencies.

Colombo Marcus 09:36 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex Thanks I am sorry , do u trade on this pair

KL KL 09:34 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
KL CODAIN, making pips in a dull market...in your term white peanuts...LOL. How are you??

btw out long +1pip....nah nah

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:31 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
1.29 for chf...is 1000 Points away...
I am a short term trader...
I can not say...Sorry!!

Melbourne Qindex 09:31 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Colombo Marcus 09:26 GMT - USD/CHF is trading at 1.1940.

Colombo Marcus 09:26 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips: what do u think can we expect another down level in the usdchf below 1.2916 ?

KL KL 09:26 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
ok decision made out with -3 at 46....long here

Dallas GEP 09:25 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
USD.CAD long entry @ 1.2068 would be a very good one

KL CODAIN 09:23 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
KL KL ..... What are you doing ???? : )

KL KL 09:21 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
one more at 51 and i am shot this time....very tempting to quit it at 46 ..47....take the loss ....ponder ponder someone put me out of this misery...LOL....USA...USA

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:18 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
shorted eur/yen here
Just added eur/yen and couple more
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/today.htm

KL KL 09:15 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8443..sl8 above (otherwise assume 10)...exited too early...lets see if this have legs

KL KL 09:12 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
out long gbpusd 1.8332 +13...luck number...this game like quick draw

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:06 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q...
This is the output...the extrem lines are 99.2% confidence...
so by bare minium...it should reach 1.2190
Still OK I think

KL KL 09:05 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
long gbpusd 1.8319

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:03 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Yes Dallas..I am still short from last night

Dallas GEP 09:02 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
106.44 short on USD/JPY

KL KL 09:01 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd long at 1.8444..+5...look like price action favour sell the rally in this pair

Dallas GEP 09:01 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
BAHRAIN Aussie short right????

Dallas GEP 09:00 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
OUT at +10 on eur/usd short

Melbourne Qindex 09:00 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:54 GMT - USD/CAD : USD is in a good shape if the market can overcome the projected resistance at 1.2320.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:00 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Just added Aussie for U

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:54 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Cad Might hit 1.23 today
wow

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:51 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
col
I don't what You're saying

KL KL 08:49 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
yep it dance me out into a hole alright ...GRRRRHH, long again 1.8439

Colombo Marcus 08:47 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
in USDCHF it has not reach down the expected low levels 1.2900 or 1.2850 it happen today or tomarrow

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:46 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
I never mentioned 1.28 for chf

KL KL 08:45 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
in long gbpusd 1.8348...must be some fibo number here...lets see it dance around here

KL KL 08:44 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
ok focusing now on gbp pip raiding short gbpusd 1.8364 out at 48 +16 pip. Not sure why this currency moving so fast ...is BOE saying no rate hike today?? Noce trading on short term indicators

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:43 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Cad is not playing the usual song

Dallas GEP 08:41 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
In @ 1.2811 short on EUR/USD

Colombo Marcus 08:37 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips ; in chf how did u get the 1.2800 levels?

Dallas GEP 08:34 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
OUT at +12 on USD/JPY short

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:24 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
eur
Fisrt has to hit 1.2720..By US Open...
Then Up if any

KL KL 08:20 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
out again gbpusd at 1.8464 +9 eur at 1.2811 +2.....phew

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:18 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/today.htm
see the charts for today's levels

KL KL 08:15 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
long gbpusd 1.8455 eurusd 1.2809...for a quick pip raiding

Dallas GEP 08:12 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
In @ 106.40 short on USD/JPY , 25 pips stop, 105.80 target

KL KL 08:10 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
out like nearly being stung by cobra gbpusd +10 pips eurusd +6 pip...tp first ask why later.

KL KL 08:07 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
finally some action short gbpusd 1.8466 eurusd 1.2822. time to retrace Imho

london 07:44 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko many thanks for explaining it helps considerably

van Gecko 07:39 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
london 06:09.. m/t money players are willing to push the USD at anytime under right market bias, risk & liquidity.. the S/M/L term bias is for a lower Dollar, but the risk of selling the Dollar here at or near a potential S/M/L term double bottom & the lack of liquidity may not be acceptable for prudent players at these near term extreme levels..

Juneau CAR 07:38 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
I agree HK.

Melbourne Qindex 07:31 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:28 GMT November 4, 2004
EUR/USD : The current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle is 1.2683 - 1.2872 and the mid-point reference is 1.2778.


... // 1.2683* - 1.2731 - 1.2778 - 1.2825 - 1.2872* // ...


The above equation can be expanded further into the following manner :-

... // (1.2683)* - 1.2707 - 1.2731 - 1.2755 - 1.2778 - 1.2802 - 1.2825 - 1.2848 - 1.2872* // ...


Once the market is trading below the mid-point reference at 1.2778, the odds are good that we can see 1.2683 which is the key quantized level of this cycle today.

Melbourne Qindex 07:28 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:28 GMT November 4, 2004
EUR/USD : The current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle is 1.2683 - 1.2872 and the mid-point reference is 1.2778.


... // 1.2683* - 1.2731 - 1.2778 - 1.2825 - 1.2872* // ...


The above equation can be expanded further into the following manner :-

... // (1.2683)* - 1.2707 - 1.2731 - 1.2755 - 1.2778 - 1.2802 - 1.2825 - 1.2848 - 1.2872* // ...

HK [email protected] 07:15 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Juneau CAR 06:29 GMT November 4

“palistains trying to get a peace deal.”

Can guarantee you, no one wants peace in the middle east on conditions accepted simultaneously by both sides.

If you want peace you get it, if no you will not.

How many attempts failed up to now?(Some even got nobel prize for temporarily stopping the killings)

A war in the middle east is not of American interest as the recent facts can prove it.

Only American pressure with American money can so it.

sofia anmart 07:12 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD should make a top at 1.2845 for 1.2700 and 1.2600.

Syd 07:11 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
ANZ's Craig Ferguson's says he's wary off selling USD's at these high levels given risk EUR/USD could peak and reverse between 1.2840-1.2930 with Fri's non-farm payrolls providing the trigger

Toronto Razor 06:59 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Q: Do other major US newspapers use terms like "raghead" on their internet sites? Seems the washington post does... err did since they took the page down.

LAX-LGB SNP 06:51 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
$/• looking bouncy ahead of 106.10
contis dont look too steady @ high levels either

gotta be the palestinian v/s pakistani effect ;-)

Toronto Razor 06:43 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
I'm sending this to the editor of the Washington Times,

http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:KVan7u0s0rcJ:washingtontimes.com/national/pruden.h tm+washington+times+raghead&hl=en&start=1

Washington Time is a "rag" anyway

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:39 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Longed Chf for 70 Pips
Some short euro here for 50

Toronto Razor 06:38 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
http://cnn.netscape.cnn.com/news/election2004.jsp?feature=ne_election5

Right click on the image of Bush, select properties, what's the name of the .jpg file ? Lol

Chicago Goofy 06:34 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Long Eur/USD, NZD/USD here.

Syd 06:31 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Actually come to think of it trading on the financial markets lately is equivelant to trying to deal with a schizophrenic patient just let out of a mental Hospital.

Juneau CAR 06:29 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
HK that will not happen. Bush idolizes sharon! He will do pretty much anything Sharon wants. Sharon will tell bush, bush will not tell Sharon.

Florida was lost to Kerry because the jews knew bush would follow anything Sharon (super hawk) wants.

They worried kerry might give in to the palistains trying to get a peace deal.

Syd 06:12 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] I agree, it may be heaven sent - you never know this could be all meant to be Bush retain power , Arafat popping his cloggs etc etc.

Pecs Andras 06:11 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Guys
The site I mentioned below is back, up and running

london 06:09 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the reply, are you saying m/t money players..are unwilling to push the USD any lower at this time.
van Gecko 01:41 GMT November 4, 2004
london 14:35/hk mom 22:35.. it usually take anywhere from 4 to 8 weeks for the Dollar to resolve its next short/medium term direction from a major level, the Dollar is into week 2 of resolving the crucial 85 neckline after taking out the 87/88 6 month support..
with the Dollar starting the month at the low after losing over 400 basis points in October, any near term gains by predator bears are not sustainable due to lack of particaption from m/t money players..

HK [email protected] 06:03 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   

Syd 04:33 GMT November 4, 2004

When Arafat will go; the middle east will be standing at the gate of a new era.
Bush at his last term, may seize the opportunity to bend back the hands of Sharon, and coerce him into an agreement with the Palestinians.
So nothing to worry about, be optimistic all.

Wien GD 06:01 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras ... yes since several hours ... anybody knows the reason?

Van don 06:00 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 05:52 GMT.
Similar problem. I've talked to their reps. for some hours but they never mentioned that they might be having a problem, only that my computer might have a fault (which may also be true, since it's acting very slowly.)

Pecs Andras 05:59 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
JP
Thanks a lot mate

Mtl JP 05:57 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Andras 05:52 / indeed. supposedly something to do with server maintenance at around 6pm earlier this evening.. now apparently some network hub died on them.. fwiw

Pecs Andras 05:52 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Anybody trqding with F*X*C*M?
Their trading platform has been down for many hours now, their website and chart too.
TIA

Colombo Marcus 05:32 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Syd ; do have anything to tell about USDCHF

prague jv 05:17 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
it seems like asia is already on christmas holidays

Syd 05:16 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD is delicately positioned at critical levels. Now the U.S. elections are out of the way medium and long term direction is set to become clear over the next few days. The currency sits at 1.2820 as I write, just below the 1.2840
high made on Oct 26 and a big figure off the all time high of 1.2925 made on 18th Feb this year. Yesterday EUR/USD had an outside trading day (1.2660-1.2829) and closed the session near the highs at 1.2821. It managed a new high this
morning, albeit marginally, at 1.2833. A close today above the 1.2840 high from Oct 26th would open up a test of the all time high at 1.2925. Should that level be breached and prices sustain above the old high a move to 1.3510-60 may be
targeted over the coming weeks/months. A close above 1.2840 therefore represents a buying signal that a medium term uptrend is about to commence, and the risk/reward merit of having a stop entry order at 1.2850 and adding to the
position through 1.2930 is strong. The quandary is this, whilst EUR/USD remains below 1.2925 it is susceptible to a major reversal that could eventually target sub 1.1760. The pullback from the historical high at 1.2925 on Feb 18 to 1.1760
on April 26 was either the first leg of a larger correction or a complete correction. Remembering that EUR/USD had sustained a rally from 0.8230 in Oct 2000 to 1.2925 on Feb 18 this year one can argue that more consolidation is
likely. In addition to that the subsequent move from the bottom of the pullback at 1.1760 on April 26 to current levels looks corrective in structure. The EUR/USD traded July to October in a 1.2000- 1.2450 range. The nature of therally back up does not look at all like a trending market and a resumption of the overall uptrend. Market sentiment is very bearish USD, with the IMM declaring record levels of USD short positions. All appears set, Medium term direction will possibly emerge over the coming trading sessions, with key U.S.Non-Farm payrolls data out tomorrow the possible catalyst
IFR

Kamensk Andy 04:48 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
farmacia - same view here, mate. Thanks and good trades

melbourne farmacia 04:40 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Kamensk Andy - Only thinking @ 1.8436/00 ish.. but u know what cable's like sometimes !! NFP will dictate weekly closing.

Miami fleon 04:38 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Deridder
I trade with Forex Solutions for one year now and they are ok for me. You can open a $10,000 demo account and give a try.

Melbourne Qindex 04:36 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Colombo Marcus 04:33 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Any one trading USDCHF?

Syd 04:33 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Arafat in intensive care after suffering setback in Paris hospital, though still no word on what's wrong with him; he's undergoing new round of tests, officials say, with his condition seriously deteriorating over past day. But some Arafat aides deny his condition has worsened, adding level of complication to matter; some have refused to acknowledge how sick he is for fear he'll appear weak - though fact he was flown to Paris in first place suggests things are bad. One source has said Arafat's ailment is fatal

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 04:29 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Is anyone in here trading using Interbankfx platform? How do you like their platform. Any feedback well appreciated.

TIA:-)

Kamensk Andy 04:29 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 04:08 GMT November 4, 2004
Good morning. Thanks for your input. Do you expect large pullback from here or not? From my point of view - we need to close this week above 1.8505 - to confirm 1.87xx - so personally dont want to see any pullbacks...

Deridder DPM 04:24 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
I am new to fx trading and I want to start by opening a mini-account. Can anybody tell me who they feel is a good broker?

KL KL 04:12 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin , thanks...so only one fibo figure between 1.83 - 1.8505. i.e 1.8324. Nothing on 1.84xx?? is that possible?? Like 1.8445-55 area?? I am no guru in fibo.

melbourne farmacia 04:08 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Kamensk Andy 06:40 GMT November 3, 2004
Just a quick follow up from my 07:00 GMT November 3, 2004
I still hold my MT view assuming 1.8125 holds… I’m cautious around 1.8480’s as my first projected target from 1.7922 stands at 1.8508 ( pullback could be on the cards + momentum seems flat ) Second target stands at 1.8703.. We might need a catalyst ( NFP ? ) in the short term to achieve this barrier etc … & Fwiw Gbp/Usd flow info suggests Asian CB selling into 1.8500. GT

Sydney Alimin 04:01 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
KL, i have roughly 1.8324, 1.8213, 1.8124 and 1.8034

KL KL 03:57 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Can someone publish the fibo figure after this recent run on cable to 1.8505. Very much appreciated

Dallas GEP 03:32 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Took a +12 on EUR/USD shorts and OUT Flat now

Melbourne Qindex 03:20 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 03:09 GMT - I would not sell at this moment. I guess Medford, OR sm 03:00 GMT would like to sell only.

Melbourne Qindex 03:20 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 03:09 GMT - I would not sell at this moment. I guess Medford, OR sm 03:00 GMT would like to see only.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 03:09 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q Why sell Cad ?

Melbourne Qindex 03:07 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Medford, OR sm 03:00 GMT - USD/CAD : If you want to sell wait for one more day and see.

Syd 03:06 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
China needs to raise interest rates which are still negative in real terms, further to cool its economy, the China Securities Journal reports Xie Fuzhan, deputy director of the State Council's Development and Research Center, as saying.
Xie said the government needs to move away from using administrative measures to control the economy and use other tools such as interest rates and taxes.
Last week's rate hike should accustom the market to rate changes so that they won't be regarded as an unusual event, the report quoted him as saying. China raised rates for the first time in nearly a decade by 27 basis points last week.
Xie said that China must continue to prevent fixed-asset investments from rebounding and prevent raw material prices from rising to help build a strong base for the economy next year.
CHINA PRESS Think Tank Official: More Rate Hikes Needed

Ltn th 03:03 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Qindex. Thanks re USDJPY. Looks like when it goes it could eally go.

Medford, OR sm 03:03 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Another newbie question.

What major news releases spur the most activity in forex?

GDP? Jobs data?? Are there any regular ones I should have on my calendar?

Thanks in advance

Medford, OR sm 03:00 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Any predictions on USD/CAD selling long term. It looks like it is on a great run, but wondering when people think the bubble might burst?

Also NZD/USD buying long term.

I am still new but am looking to do well in those two over the next couple of days or longer if all goes well.

Syd 02:58 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
The technical outlook for the New Zealand dollar remains bullish against its U.S. counterpart, but there are risks of a corrective pullback in coming weeks due to "overbought" momentum reading on the weekly chart and signs of bearish divergence, say Standard Chartered analysts.

NY Shawn 02:54 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Alimin/ I think cad shall find support between 2000-2020.

HK [email protected] 02:52 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Euro WEEKLY (Stoch. in overbought area) +
+(WEEKLY Macd_sighting potential for Div.) +
+ (Third yearly Top_attempt_breach).

That worth taking care of.

Melbourne Qindex 02:50 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Crude Oil (Dec) : The current expected trading range is 48.28 - 55.91 and the mid-point reference is 52.09. If the market retreats and penetrates through the key quantized level at 48.28, it has a potential to go all the way to 40.65. A projected resistant barrier is located at 62.97 - 63.53.


... // 40.65* - 44.46 - (48.28)* - 52.09 - 55.91* - 59.72 - 63.53* // ...

Sydney Alimin 02:50 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
poor usd/cad, how low can it go? is it heading towards 1.19?

Ldn 02:48 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
BRUSSELS (AP)--European Union leaders launch a two-day summit Thursday with hopes that they'll be able to forge a joint role for the 25-nation bloc in Iraq -and by doing so bring a fresh start to strained relations with the re-elected U.S. President George W. Bush.

EU leaders are likely to push the second-term Bush administration to find a way out of the violence in Iraq and adopt a more multilateral approach that would involve Europe in consultations over the Iraq crisis.

But in seeking to heal ties with Washington, the EU could also deepen its role in Iraq's reconstruction efforts despite reluctance - particularly from France and Germany - to get involved on the ground.

Iraq's interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi attends the summit on Friday, and EU leaders are expected to offer him a trade deal as part of efforts to help rebuild the country. The EU has already committed $371 million in humanitarian and reconstruction aid for Iraq this year.

Dutch Foreign Minister Ben Bot signaled the EU might be prepared to go further by helping bolster the country's law enforcement system and supporting efforts to hold elections in January.

The summit, chaired by Dutch Prime Minister Jan-Peter Balkenende, whose country holds the EU presidency, is also expected to focus on boosting the EU's weak economic growth, tackling much needed reforms and getting the EU's 455 million citizens excited about the newly signed EU constitution.

Many Europeans will get a chance to judge the proposed constitution -designed to accelerate decision-making and give Europe a sharper profile on the world stage -in national referendums.

Leaders are also expected to sign off on a new drive to set up a common immigration and asylum policy by 2010, and to discuss recent events in the Middle East and Iran's nuclear program.

Finding ways to reconcile with Washington over Iraq, however, is sure to dominate corridor discussions.

On the eve of the summit, the EU head office was already sending conciliatory tones with pledges to work with whoever won the presidential election. And later Wednesday, the EU congratulated Bush after word that his challenger, Sen. John Kerry, had conceded the contest.

But Washington's envoy to the EU on Wednesday said Europe should not expect great changes in relations with the White House.

Ambassador Rockwell A. Schnabel said policies on fighting terrorism and rebuilding Iraq would remain key undertakings of the United States.

"People talking about a change of direction ... you really cannot expect that," Schnabel said. But he said healing the trans-Atlantic rift was a priority.

"Regardless of who gets into the White House, you are going to see a renewed commitment ... to listening to your concerns," Schnabel said. "We recognize the importance of Europe, absolutely."

Analysts, however, said Europeans might hold-off on reconciliation efforts if no new overtures are made by Bush to a continent still polarized over Iraq.

"It would probably delay involvement of EU countries in Iraq, certainly on the ground," said Giovanni Grevi from the European Policy Centre, a Brussels-based think tank.

He said European leaders have little choice but to seek better ties because Europe needs American cooperation on issues like fighting terrorism and pushing ahead the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

wisconsin tim 02:48 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Projections for 11/4/2004
Date Currency Close R1 Close S1
11/3/2004 AUDUSD 0.7627 0.7533
11/3/2004 EURGBP 0.6957 0.6923
11/3/2004 EURUSD 1.2908 1.2783
11/3/2004 EURYEN 136.61 135.54
11/3/2004 GBPUSD 1.8576 1.8424
11/3/2004 GBPYEN 196.63 195.37
11/3/2004 NDZUSD 0.6944 0.6872
11/3/2004 USDCAD 1.2104 1.1946
11/3/2004 USDCHF 1.1984 1.1838
11/3/2004 USDYEN 106.35 105.50

Ina co'z 02:46 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
hello all !...

Ina co'z 13:25 GMT November 2, 2004

I losing time of cable when make a top 1.8505 yesterday.less -25pips, coz i placed my short order at 1.8525...but dunno for now ?? GL/GT !.....

Ldn 02:38 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
December Nymex crude off 33 cents on Access at $50.55/bbl, erasing some of overnight spike as Bush election win has short-lived impact; are some problems at refinery in U.S. Virgin Islands but is a negative for prices in larger-than-expected build in U.S. weekly crude stocks. Many analysts have turned bearish, say growing inventories point to lower prices; "the market is vulnerable to an upside correction but it would take a rally of 3 to 4 dollars to change the trend," Chris McCormack
ABN Amro reoirt

FW CS 02:36 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
What I don't see yet is the Euro gains in the news. Still climbing a wall of worry for now. Maybe when Euro break above 1.30 will we see it public then its time to sell.

Syd 02:33 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Plug loopholes on foreign exchange
LINKThe warning the State Administration of Foreign Exchange made against currency speculation should not be interpreted as a late objection against the country's first interest rate hike in nearly a decade, which was made last week

NY Shawn 02:29 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
I think cable may break out 8500

HK [email protected] 02:28 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
A simple view for a possible medium term Euro Ret.

It is for the third time this year that Euro tries to break above the [1.2850,1.2930] range.

A third failure means, a repeated test of the 200Dma(currently at 1.257).
Some mentioned here, that a weaker dollar will not necessarily
bring an immediate improvement in the trade deficit.

We should not forget too, that commercials have invested much money in proping up the $$$ B4 the elections, and they want their money back++++(profits).

A fast devaluation, will not only result in the inability to sell more debts, but generally will harm any investment capital inflow, and cause capital flight too.

So where can one expect the $$$ to go in case of a Ret.

If I try to look at the Euro chart, and assume a third top_breach failue, with the present 200dma and estimated Fibo. Ret.
It can be assumed Ret. to the range of [1.23xx,1.24xx]. If I assume 38.2% Ret. from April_04 low, more or less the USDX equivalent will be 87.

A Euro break above 1.2850_1.2930 range forget all the above estimations.

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:16 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   

4-Nov Thursday All times GMT es=estimate pr=previous
Today's skeet shoot: No JPY data that I know of.

EUR ItalNew Car Regis YoY OCT(GMT unk)es=-0.7% pr=-0.7%

CHF SECO Consumr Climate OCT 6:45 es=-13 pr=-12
CHF CPI MoM OCT 6:45 es=0.7% pr=0.0%
CHF CPI YoY OCT 6:45 es=1.1% pr=0.9%

GBP Tot.New Constr Ordrs SEP es=9:30 pr=2,338.0

EUR EZ P'dcr PriceIdx MoM SEP 10:00 es=0.2% pr=0.4%
EUR EZ P'dcr PriceIdx YoY SEP 10:00 es=3.3% pr=3.1%
EUR EZ Unemp Rate SEP 10:00 es=9.0% pr=9.0%

GBP NTC,Deloitte& REC Rept onJobs 10:30
EUR Germ Fact Ordrs BBK MoM SEP P 11:00 es=1.0% pr=-1.7%
EUR Germ Fact Ordrs BBK YoY SEP P 11:00 es=4.8% pr=5.8%
GBP BRC Shop Price Index 11:00
GBP BOE Rates NOV 4 12:00 es=4.75% pr=4.75%

EUR ECB Int Rates NOV 12:45 es=2.00% pr=2.00%

CAD BoC Depty Gov'r Kennedy Speak 13:30

USD Nonfarm Prodtvty 3Q P 13:30 es=1.8% pr=2.5%
USD Unit Labr Costs 3Q P 13:30 es=2.5% pr=1.8%
USD Initial Jobless OCT 30 13:30 es=340k pr=350k
USD Continuing Clms OCT 23 13:30 pr=2,823k


CAD Bldg Permits MoM SEP 13:30 es=2.0% pr=-4.6%
CAD Ivey Purchasng Mgrs Indx OC) 15:00 63.0 66.0
NZD Trade Balnce Revised SEP F 21:45

Melbourne Qindex 02:11 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 01:50 GMT - Bias on the downside.

Ltn th 01:50 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Qindex// May I enquire if you have any bias on USDJPY for next two sessions?

van Gecko 01:41 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
london 14:35/hk mom 22:35.. it usually take anywhere from 4 to 8 weeks for the Dollar to resolve its next short/medium term direction from a major level, the Dollar is into week 2 of resolving the crucial 85 neckline after taking out the 87/88 6 month support..
with the Dollar starting the month at the low after losing over 400 basis points in October, any near term gains by predator bears are not sustainable due to lack of particaption from m/t money players..


quito_ecuador_valdez 01:36 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 01:22 GMT November 4, 2004
Let USD calm down 'til next Wednesday..give it some space to play in 'til then..pip raid only 'til you can see where USD is going.

cebu praetorian 01:34 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
good day traders!!!

KL KL 01:29 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
out short eurusd at 1.2727 +7 gbpusd at 1.8490 +11 - start the day with 18 is good

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:26 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Ldn & nh, tks for your posts regarding Fed & co. Anyone interested, I posted something about the Fed/int rates a minute ago on the Political Forum trying to do my part in cleaning up the FF.

hk ab 01:22 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Some wise pal here mentioned that the day after election is usually quiet followed by wild waves.

LA Fxnew 01:19 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
anybody short cable right now????

Livingston nh 01:13 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
th - Ferguson deals with the definitional problem in the speech - it is on the Fed website

Livingston nh 01:11 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Ldn - it was Ferguson speaking not G'span

Ltn th 01:09 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
nh// In economist jargon does'nt the term neutral rate have a precice meaning given by a formula based on some inflation measure and GDP? Can anyone enlighten us?

Ldn 01:03 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh I dont think anyone can read Greenspans - too shrewd he definitly doesnt let his left hand know what his rights doing

Livingston nh 00:52 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
LDN- vice chairman of the Fed gave a speech last week about the "neutral" rate - says it might not need to be based on historical average but rather on forward looking considerations (translation - maybe not 3%)

Ldn 00:51 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez Now election out of the way Greenspan will not be accused of ruining Georges chances at a second run , as he was blamed for with Bush senior

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:42 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Ldn//Tks greatly for the info. Must clear the brush away from my cave..first time I've seen positive info on Fed hikes..I read the counter opinions plenty.

Dallas GEP 00:39 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
1.2805 TP on euro short

Dallas GEP 00:36 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Well OK short on EUR/USD @ 1.2830 now 15 and 30 MACD's have turned down so technically the trade is supported short term. 30 pip stop

Melbourne Qindex 00:32 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
All Ords (ASX) : The market is trying to tackle the upper barrier of my Quarterly Cycle. Projected barriers are located at 3851.9, 3890.8, 3955.6 and 4007.5. It is possible but very unlikely that the market can reach 4007.5 in the year 2004. The market is negative if it decides to retreat from the upper barrier.

Syd 00:28 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
HK Mom Macquarie Bank

Juneau CAR 00:25 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
Re: George Soros.

He is only reflecting the thoughts of every liberal I know. And I know a lot of them having been involved in politics for 35 years. He is a mainstream liberal.

Melbourne Qindex 00:22 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
CRB Index : In the last few trading sessions the market has penetrated through a barrier of 282.4 - 285.6. It closed at 281.06 on Wednesday. The downside target is 269.3 and the time frame is the remaining period of this year.

hk mom 00:11 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
NAB becomes a clown again.

Syd :-( 00:09 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
With AUD/USD in fresh upside territory, latest risk is for "a nasty, messy reversal in favor of the USD," warns Macquarie currency strategy report; a solid U.S. payrolls report Friday of over 200,000 and then a Fed rate hike next week could do it.

Ldn 00:06 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   

All 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect another quarter point increase next week.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/economy/fedwatch.html

Ldn 00:01 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez majority of analyst have said that the Fed has to get the rate back to a realistic level above 2% instead of the emergency rate talk of rates 3 - 4% reasonable.

Wien GD 00:00 GMT November 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP, Caba ... thx

 




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