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Forex Forum Archive for 11/05/2004

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Stockholm AGuy 23:44 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 21:58 GMT:
Sorry, I actually meant "maximum", not "minimum" - symptom of overcooked brain! Signing off, good weekend everybody.

hk mom 23:19 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
We certainly will not see Gold coast martin again.
My son is still having his reflection on his attitude.
Euro sell is being held.

Philadelphia Caba 22:20 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 22:03 GMT November 5, 2004
S**O bank quote: EUR/USD high bid was 1.2971

Philadelphia Caba 22:09 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 22:03 GMT November 5, 2004
Philadelphia Caba, you need to let me know your "kind" platform

just playing with F**M mini account & checked out 5 min chart at S**O bank...1.2961

KL KL 22:03 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba, you need to let me know your "kind" platform.

ICT ML 22:01 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY et 21:16 GMT November 5, 2004
Hey , I am doing fine. Today got suckered into selling cable after the NFP that ate my lunch but have sold $CAD again and leaving it for 1.1610. Stupid brokers wouldn't let me deal for quite awhile and I should have seen that as a sign of things to come perhaps.
Will buy euro on any dip on Sunday for a calculated 1.3275 target off last move up. That NFP chaos has probably knocked out many of my clients long euro trades, as I told them if it stayed above 1.2820 area it was good for 1.3275. I didn't see that reaction coming myself.

But to be honest had bad October over all, and have not been very active lately up to the election. Now that risk is over so I'm game again.

Hope you are doing well.

Halifax CB 21:58 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy - you're into math? I'm familiar with maximum entropy techniques; got a reference on minimum entropy? TIA...

Philadelphia Caba 21:44 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 20:56 GMT November 5, 2004
short eurusd 1.2967, sl 7 above
on my platform, I'm still alive ...

KL KL 21:32 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
looks like my short eur got taken...oh well maybe abit of fuel left, gbpusd short still alive...maybe looking for ko options at 1.3 and 1.86 respectively

Ltn th 21:32 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
CAR// It is possible you may have a problem with your proxy setup or hosts file. If you access G-V from another site they may be providing the proxies and have blocked G-V's. In any case the links that were supplied should have got you to a login screen or G-V error page.

KL KL 21:22 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
MEDAN FATGUY, good day....LAH?? btw what is the local going rate for ringgit/sing, ringgit/gbp and ringgit /aussie. Ringgit becoming smaller? How you hedge against peg currency? Always curious....there must be some loop hole there in cash economy? care to share?? tia

Mtl JP 21:16 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Car / Political Forum here

Rye, NY et 21:16 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 21:14 GMT November 5, 2004
How have you been?

Rye, NY et 21:15 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Juneau CAR 21:11 GMT November 5, 2004
Hey, CAR...
It may have to do with the way (URL) you are accessing the Forum...........

ICT ML 21:14 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
CAR, are you coming in the forum through another site? If so I'll do this for you: cut & paste it. It does change from time to time though.
http://www.global-view.com/beta/forums/forum.html?f=5&s=1
This is the pol forum that I get to from the GV home page.

Juneau CAR 21:11 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Halifax, but I have been asked that before. No, nothingi shows up on my screen.

Boy, do I feel dense-lol. I have searced and searched, all to no avail.

perrie como 21:04 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
exactly WAIT ...there will be plenty of talks during the w/e better staying off

charts are messy too...as data...as microsoft too has a daily turnover of 1/4 of the whole company balance sheet...

irrational markets with greenspan where one thing, with bush might be more

Chicago JMI 20:59 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 20:42 GMT November 5, 2004
I am also getting today/Monday as a major reversal day. Last time I had one like this was May 13 when euro was around 1.18. Probably a good idea to wait for a down day first before shorting though.

Chicago Goofy 20:57 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Anyon who access to big bank, big fund, big transaction can tell me something about real insight happened today?

KL KL 20:56 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
short eurusd 1.2967, sl 7 above gbpusd 1.8558 sl 10 above,
risk/reward is better being short than long

MEDAN FATGUY 20:50 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
saint louis 20:25 GMT November 5, 2004
Just closed my long euro 1.2966.
Still hold long cable.

Euro gap up not sure But the cable i think yes.

Just long usd/chf to hedge my long cable position.

Rye, NY et 20:48 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Chicago cme 20:36 GMT November 5, 2004
I agree, but I think it will take until after Thanksgiving. We might even see another double top...GL/GT

Stockholm AGuy 20:42 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Somebody may still remember from last year that I'm a fan of linear prediction (extrapolation of time series by minimum entropy method). It sometimes works... and is now indicating Monday (Nov 8) as the turning point for the USD (based on daily data, ending yesterday). Far from certain, of course, but it's interesting to note that the Dow dailies are also at the same overbought levels where they've turned in previous rallies. Multinationals with plenty of overseas revenue turning down as the dollar turns up would make sense, at least.

LA fxnew 20:40 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
cable and euro are going up strong ... there is no sign of going down next week?

perrie como 20:37 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
There might or might not be another strong round of huge US dollar sell-off next week....

But Bush has said It....so what

Chicago cme 20:36 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Technicals suggest that any gap up on Sunday night should be sold. Cycles due for a turn within the next couple of weeks -given the runup we've just had i think we turn sooner rather than later. okay....let the flaming begin.

saint louis 20:25 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
you think it will gap up medan?

MEDAN FATGUY 20:17 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
yes, I am still holding long euro n cable.

Cable had broken the daily pennant . Can be up at least 200 pips fr current price. IMHO

saint louis 20:14 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
anyone holding EUR/USD or GBP/USD for gap up

London e 20:11 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
London e 19:34 GMT November 5, 2004
I have bought USD/CHF here seeing we have our 10 pips new low.

perrie como 20:05 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Also next weeks seems more desks will stay off trading

perrie como 20:03 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
It seems the Dollar will wipe out all who try to buy It....maybe is really worth 1.8 against euro

Rye, NY et 19:55 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Short EUR/USD 1.2944; cut 1.3027;take 1.2585

saint louis 19:53 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
ok.. today has taught me to always place a stop.. :(

London e 19:34 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
IMO. USD/CHF will rally next week. We may see a new low today but that would only be about 10 pips past the last. USD/CHF is a buy today for next week. Initial target of 1.2, then a retrace and then higher than 1.2. Im buying USD/CHF here. Also notice SP500 is negatively correlating with USD.

Halifax CB 19:30 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi Juneau - Do you have a blue bar with some ads over to the right of your page? If so, mouse over "Login Forums", and you'll see a link to "Political" It's the same on the home page.

knoxville dan-k 19:29 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
dan looses mind after loosing his money and runs to window and jumps out, but its only a 1 story building he breaks left leg,
hobbles to basement gets ladder and 12foot rope ties it on limb climbs ladder and jumps off trying to hang himself -- ladder only 10foot high breaks other leg, uses arms to crawel back to trading desk since he cannot walk anywhere else to try, so now stuck trading

Juneau CAR 19:25 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Thanks by the way.

Juneau CAR 19:25 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Why doesn't the political forum have a link on the home page??

Halifax CB 19:24 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
try this link Juneau.

Toronto Waverider 19:18 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Not sure where TGs comments should go, in the loony bin or the round file...

perrie como 19:18 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
c'mon...we have enough mediatic fantasies from the recent elections...political forum or any other thing shd be found on the menu's or else write a letter

Juneau CAR 19:16 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Global view, I found the political forum a few montsh ago, but cannot remember how to find it now. Can you provide directions?

TIA

knoxville dan-k 19:14 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
apoligize for comments if anything is worth trading speak out ill take a few pips

Global-View 19:11 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
To repeat:

Global-View 19:01 GMT November 5, 2004
We give more leeway on a Friday but suggest using the Political Forum unless the political comments have relevance to the market.

knoxville dan-k 19:09 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
and if i were president i would mark these countries up like the indians, we fight them we win we get the spoiles of war we own them they become a new state, or terrotory

perrie como 19:08 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Guess America will get more divided from North and South next year dear Knoxville

knoxville dan-k 19:06 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
true, however if we would take a simple and pretty much a universal stance that exists in both countries and in business one almost alwayse wants to take over the other, however we in the US goes in and takes it over then gives it back and rebuilds them only to have to do it again--lol we are fighting wars in places that support terrorist activities these countries are the ones we need to take over or eliminate if the terrorist moves to another country then we mark them up for next on list, pretty soon countries will not let them in or support their cause

Stockholm AGuy 19:01 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
knoxville dan-k 18:54 GMT:
Japan is a country. As such, it has a people and a territory on which military pressure could be brought to bear. al Qaeda, in case you hadn't noticed, is not a country.

Global-View 19:01 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
We give more leeway on a Friday but suggest using the Political Forum unless the political comments have relevance to the market.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:59 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for your comments TG

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:59 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 18:52 GMT November 5, 2004
I tend to agree with you on this one. Terror will be difficult to fight the way we have always been taught to fight. It is time to change the old ways and strategy of war to new one ones of course it is easier said then done. The US does not live alone in this planet IMHO.

SanFrancisco TG 18:58 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
You all have a good weekend. I find I am once again trying to help the mind of a nut case.

knoxville dan-k 18:57 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
i would suspect that if one were set off in america and a major city of millions were killed, it would be katie barr the door for any suspected anywhere

SanFrancisco TG 18:57 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm, thats what I'm saying as well, plus a little. Terror strike on the US ... imminent. Enough to warrant nuclear response ... unlikely. US nuclear strike prior to terror strike ... never going to happen. US neclear strike in response to terror nuclear strike ... bet on it and they already have specific targets.

Its all very logical. Frankly, I have trouble understanding the sentiment of a pre-emptive US nuclear strike as anything but of the mind of a lunatic.

However, risk aversion is clearly in vogue in months to come.

NY NY 18:56 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I thot the POL stuff was going over to the POL forum? I don't contribute much so I can't complain but I sure hate wading through all this crap to get worthwhile market updates.

knoxville dan-k 18:56 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
we killed entire cities just to get a few leaders, and their attention

knoxville dan-k 18:54 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
agreed aguy, just like japan

Stockholm AGuy 18:52 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
knoxville dan-k 18:41 GMT:
Guys, before you (TG et al) get your knickers all twisted phantasizing about nuclear retaliation, you'd better think it through. If somebody manages to smuggle a nuclear device into the US by way of a ship container - the kind which apparently enters the country uninspected in 90% of cases - and then to detonate it in a city, perhaps after further transport by rail, who do you nuke? Even assuming that US intelligence (sic) manages to trace the container to an individual or group of individuals, presumably spread all over the world, what do you do? Bomb their current place(s) of residence? Kill millions to get a handful of crazed killers? I don't think so.

SanFrancisco TG 18:48 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Dan - Logic, intelligence, and a rational mind dictate such a response by the US would only be retaliatory. Unless you are smoking too much grass and reading UFO conspiracy comic books, this is the only reality. If the conspiracy theories were correct, the entire middle east would be more dust than it is now last year.

I do have a sense terrorists will strike again shortly but not at such a scale to warrant such a devestating/end it response. Later, that could be another story.

I am seriously placing positions in Chf which interestingly are already speaking to me of similar market sentiment as a safeguard. They are offsett by real time flows in other currencies.

knoxville dan-k 18:41 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
TG - i agree, the U.S. is the only country on the planet that has a nuclear first strike policy, give that thought, the terrorist better

ny amc 18:36 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Bonn...............what do you base that on ??

Bonn Karl 18:33 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
in 2005 eur/$ will reach 1.3450 and then further out 1.4100/1.4200. below 1.1800 is need to alter the trend.

bye, have a g/w.

SanFrancisco TG 18:32 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Zappy - Well it would help if the EU agenda would pull its head out of the domination agenda and join the cooperative economic world. Barring that, I would estimate the US begins to increase rates in 2005 which should set it all in motion. As I've noted before, tax receipts are robust for 2 years running and the dollar is weak, the GDP is extremely strong, expenditure is massively declining except for mop up in the war on terror.

However, the wild card is terror. One more severe attack on the US and all bets are off. The US has enormous financial reserves and ability, the deficit is just a component. Depending on severity, the US would spare no expense at blasting the source(s) of the next attack. If the next attack is of the kind I fear is coming, there would hardly be any expense, just a few flights.

HK REVDAX 18:29 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
WILL (2) BELOW MATERIALIZE NEXT MONDAY AS IT WAS WRITEN?
----------------------------------------------------------
HK REVDAX 03:35 GMT November 5, 2004
CYCLE ANALYSIS

Tomorrow's Special (Nov 5)
====================
Tomorrow (nov 5)... exactly...sell Euro/$. This sell
Euro/$ signal will take either one of the following
forms:
(1)Euro/$ will go up into the time window of Nov 5 and
reverse down on the same day....OR
(2)Euro/$ will go up into Nov 5 and stay high at
close...then gap down next Monday morning in Asia
session.

Either (1) or (2) will mark 'a' cycle top of Euro/$.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:24 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Well the bulls were let loose out of the corral today for the eur/usd pair. Indicators are useless on these kinds of conditions were the trend is very strong. I know it is not easy whey the summer put most of us to sleep or in the nut house but that is the way of the market and the trader has to be nimble as well. What a strange day for the bears they had the ammo with the good US data but yet they could not pull the trigger maybe next week will be their week LOL. I have retracement numbers for next week at 2875-85, 2830-40, 2790-2800, 2750-60 and 2700-10 if 2950-60 holds ground and a closing over 2930 would mean the bulls are looking to take out the 3000’s mark before any retracement IMHO. I hope every one has a good and safe weekend. See you on the other side. GL GT

knoxville dan-k 18:08 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
just gotta soak them in beer first

knoxville dan-k 18:08 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
well houston u r right but i have had some mighty tasty catfish!!

London Zappy 18:06 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
//SanFrancisco TG 17:57 GMT
You make a good point, but not sure about the destiny bit... Do you have a rough date in mind?

houston ken 18:03 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
if you go bottom fishing you come out with a smelly hand . so let this bottom then trade the trend

Wien GD 17:57 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 17:20 ... thx GEP, already thought of something like that ... we saw it about a year ago ... and the 105.50 level looks is an example ... thx for your explanation ... useful "strategy"!

SanFrancisco TG 17:57 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I have a question. Would you prefer no economy but a government surplus (as in the EU) or a vibrant economy and a deficit (which is absolutely destined to recede) ?

Halifax CB 17:52 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Yeah, it's funny jk - I lose alot less money reading that book than I do investing :)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:51 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Dubai Salem 17:35 GMT November 5, 2004 //
I might be..."of the Money laundering as well"
Then again U might be right...that's far away excuse

Hong Kong Ahe 17:50 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
For those dollar bears, remember Nov is the last month for big funds in windows decorating. Beware of stop traps. Good lucks and good trades.

GENEVA FHR 17:49 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
My opinion is that structural weeakness of the dollar is there to stay for some time.I you look at a long term chart the obvious low of $/Chf has to be tested which is 1.11 ard.That will make Euro at around 1.35/ 36 the level zorro talked about.
in any event if we were to brake this level in $/Chf then we will be in unchartered territory and anything could happened.
Also i think that asian countries have been for some time now
buying Aussie euro cable in order to diversify their holding.

GER ad 17:48 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Look like that only CHF left some power, but alone will be not enough to change substantially the numbers today. There are IMHO two scenarios possible:
1. By close we will retrace a litle1.2910/20 105.80/90 ... and Sunday night we may see some stop hunting before correction begins.
2. We are closing at record and Sunday night begin some correction (1.2840 ... before FED)
Have a nice weekend!

LA Fxnew 17:47 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
hi guys .. whats the high for cable today?

houston ken 17:45 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
if euro closes above 922 watchout all bets are off there is no limit to where it will go

nyc jk 17:45 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 17:36 GMT November 5, 2004

agreed CB, excellent book.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:43 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Dubai Salem 17:35 GMT November 5, 2004 ///
I might be angry cause the sex industry in the area....
I don't think u are though..:)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:39 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Dubai Salem 17:35 GMT November 5, 2004 ///
I don't think so
I never shorted it!!!

FloridA vv 17:38 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 17:28 GMT November 5, 2004

Yes, I replied there.

Ppl dont expect Eur will give up very easy. Looks like we may find ourselves in a very long term channel with the borders 1.18 - 1.32.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:37 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I had to deal with people that did not mind if the Bank would down the tubes...just to prove me wrong...
That is insaine....if that guy had a rigrous test to lead...he would not be there...that way...about 8 families in this country + 20 More in india would be healthy happy...and fine...but he slips through the system..his swiss account is now 4 million + 28 Families are suffering (Just to prove me wrong)
wow...I think the test is economically not feasible for 10 bucks

Halifax CB 17:36 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
During the lulls today I've been rereading Soros' Alchemy of Finance; coincidentally I'm on the section called Reagan's Imperial Circle, which talks about the risks of speculative capital, particularly when it, as it always eventually does, takes a powder. Funny how applicable his theory from 20 years ago is to today's USD...

Dallas GEP 17:35 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Closed usd/jpy longs @ 105.67

Dubai Salem 17:35 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:31 GMT November 5, 2004
SanFrancisco TG 17:28 GMT November 5, 2004 //
Euro next week 1.2650
Just short it

now i understand why you was angry and agressive last 10 posts ?

Gen dk 17:32 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:31 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 17:28 GMT November 5, 2004 //
Euro next week 1.2650
Just short it

SanFrancisco TG 17:28 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
vv - I'm i've registered and am in the other place you mention.

Side note, oil weakening slightly, gold flattening, stocks pulling up some (yields not in line) ...... Euro is capped for the day.

Gen dk 17:28 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

nyc jk 17:26 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
been doing this 14 years WTR, so not really worried about any money evaporating. keep up the comedy routine though, provides some relief on a busy day.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:25 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I Think Lie detectors and Genetic Tests...should even be done for CEO and Managemnt levels in companies

Chicago Irish 17:24 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
vv:Agree today,but think Euro has a 1.33 visit lined up in the not too distant future.

new york george 17:24 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Ok, guys,
my position are: few days ago: buy gbpusd at 1,8452
1,8480 with hedge

and today I closed all my position with 140+ pips.

Have a nice day and good luck.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:22 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
From Corrupt people Like...one leaves a space for people to come with theroies Like The Comminst party...
Cause of stravation...
People get angry...they come up with stuff that cause another problem.

Prevention or the cure...Your choice

Dallas GEP 17:20 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
OK....These remind of the days when BOJ was very active...there are still IMO but to a much less visible extent. Pretty apparent they are bidding up from 105.50 at this time. So typically they will defend a level and THEN may pull the bids at those levels to defense at a lower level. In this way they can have their ORDERLY decline. So if the level of defense can be identified, you may have 4-5 chances of for IE going long with a stop just below defended level. this assumes in this example that the market is selling dollars which of course it has been. This also makes the BOJ's job easier because they can THEN get OTHERS to BID up at the level they want to defend and they can then use LESS of their own resources. If the market is PRESSING very hard on their level and their appears to be no retracements in sight. They will then sometimes STOP their own bids let market slid thru their level, wait for others to SELL usd/jpy on the supposed break and then they come back in with usd/jpy longs in an almost punishing factor. The reason for this is simple...without the fear of BOJ intervention they will lose their effectiveness in managing the yen's exchange rate. They are the VERY best at this.

Perth WTR 17:19 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 17:13 GMT November 5, 2004

you are just one sore loser LOL, what do you contribute here? nothing! and you are just feeling lost here watching your money evaporating real fast, now eat that! a fool never learns from his mistakes, amazing! and you are complaining 170 pips with 150 pips? censored off

FloridA vv 17:18 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
No probs mate,
Business is business. Btw I added some $ longs here. dont think that 1.30 can be reached.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:17 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Presidents have no control over the stock MKT...
This Just coencidece..(Sp)

GER ad 17:17 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
GBP/CHF,
Out at 2.1910
Holding only EUR/CHF long from 1.5272

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:16 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Crazy Marcos and Estrada....the phillipes...waht kind of "FU" Up people are these...
Estrada...had a life time drinking + Gambling + Women...
he became president to stay with the habbits...
10 Years latter...The philipens is going hay wire...
The UN Membership for the phillipens should have been withdrawn right when crazy people like that Join poltics

SanFrancisco TG 17:15 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
On that note, Gold futures may be turning down around these levels so this could cap euro. I am a little late for stock pull back vv so I'll go there right now.

SanFrancisco TG 17:15 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
vv - actually if you don't mind give me just about a half hour, stocks possibly changing direction to the upside and need to hit them. :)

Halifax CB 17:14 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain - Roosevelt's idea of stability mired the US in almost a decade of economic drought that only ended with WWII. Check out the lack of progress re. employment and personal wealth, as well as the stock market, under his leadership

SanFrancisco TG 17:13 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
vv - ok. Give me a minute to register (not a member yet) :)

nyc jk 17:13 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
WTR - you come through telling everyone about market psychology at 1.28 EUR, it goes down 170 pips from where you start blabbing and you just vanish. now its 130 pips higher and you here gloating on the forum. there is market psychology at its finest.

Perth WTR 17:09 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 17:01 GMT November 5, 2004

well if you remember well enough i said last time i won't post too much anymore, let the trades speak for themselves, and now you should be asking yourself is your trading account wiped out now by following that retracement stuff? LOL....1.2630 was still within striking distance of my 150 pips plan, what were you laughing about? laugh your money gone? :)

anyway, keep dreaming on your retracement plan, enough for me now, no need to answer you anymore

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:08 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
since 1920's..there was no stability anywhere...Maybe the last best president was Roseivelt for any country

South America...for the last 30 years..more and more problems...More corrupt...more power strugle
Swiss accounts should be stoped...to stop people like that have any ideas

SanFrancisco TG 17:06 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Fxnew - If you would like, please ask GVI for my email. I wont mind explaining some things to you that will shed a much stronger understanding of how and why currencies are working the way they are. Some of it is just passing on education that was given to me.

nyc jk 17:01 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
WTR - ROFL . now you show up after vanishing at 1.2630. we thought you wiped out your demo account.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:01 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Citzens of any place should be insured these days from so called leaders...People like that are born over and over again...we have the know how now....noooooooooo
we don't use..
A simple genetic test for each nominie will stop half the worlds problems...( 10 Bucks each)
People live 10 years with peace of that counrty with a clear head

SanFrancisco TG 17:00 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Fxnew - a weak USD is in no way a reflection of strength in current times (economic or in terms of purchase power). I suggest you study why the USD is being intentionally weakened for the benefit of the US (and ultimately the global) economy. You arent listening to ENN tv are you?

Perth WTR 16:59 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
now we know who said the right thing about a week ago...where is the pathetic retracement theory people were talking about?it is all about market psychology baby, now they are all silent...well done quito valdez, cheers and have a nice weekend


Perth WTR 15:29 GMT October 25, 2004
london 15:22 GMT October 25, 2004

the usd bear rally might be halted temporarily but whether there is significant retracement is still in question and what size....consolidation of 100-150 pips from today's most extreme price is all i can see, it is gonna be frustrating for those trapped earlier as by the time they almost get out of trouble, the rally has started again, that's gonna be the scenario
prior to us election there should be tight range forming too so again consolidation area of 150 pips max is all i can think of

perrie como 16:58 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Seems all done

have a restful w/e

Dallas GEP 16:58 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
In long usd/jpy again @ 105.60...stop 105.43

LA Fxnew 16:56 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
dollar is this weak????

Bush sux

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 16:56 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Camp Delta

who are you

i just find 2 post for you in archives

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:55 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Saudi takes runaways like eiddy...puts him in casle...and looks at people simming in hotels with some wild ideas...
" Not accepatble in any terms"

Camp Delta No-one-will-escape 16:52 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
After Dubya is finished it'll become Ramada month

Singapore NewKid 16:51 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
party over for dollar bear

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:50 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Preventive action lead by us...
To Join the UN
1) The President of any country should not do more 5 years (I think that's more then enough)
2) 2 generations from any presdent can a nominee
3) 20 Years Plan to impliment this
4) The world will be trouble free

==========These should good times ==========
U get a guy from africa (ie Eiddy ammen)
1) Canibale
2) kills 200,000 people
=== What is this people...we can stop people like him saddam Hitler and "ShhhhIt" like that...by Tests to qulify

We do this to hire people...why can't we do this to let nominate them selves
Otherwise...No UN...for that county...
it's finsihed...Peace and good times for 1,000 Years

Van jv 16:50 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 16:30 ///Glad to to see you objective--on
Shroeder's bid for EU reform , GD

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 16:48 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips

leave him alone

we are in Ramadhan month

Kamensk Andy 16:47 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne farmacia - what a nervous day...Thanks for your levels - was nice to add @1.8320. Next week hope to close part near 1.87... Good trades to you..

SanFrancisco TG 16:47 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Gold Futures been up since 9am NY time and still up, no real sign of abatement yet.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:46 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 16:21 GMT November 5, 2004// You and GEP are among the posters today who've made any sence. I'm up 40 pips already on position trade long @1.2900. Will add Mon or Tues if move proceeds to 1.3 levels..tired of phantom retracement theories with absolutely no backing. Grrrr. Yea chart, boo BS.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:42 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
In Clinton years...it got so close
he messed it up!!...why...so he can stay...More money

Dallas GEP 16:42 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
CLOSED usd/jpy longs @ 105.67

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:39 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
===Arafat never was sick===
Stratigy to get more money...this always done around here!!
30 Years...all he did was mess around with good people with lies...they guy is very very rich

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:38 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Elvis, Grey Aliens, Arafat seen having tea with ex pres Ronald Regan and GWB on White House lawn, naked!

Chicago Irish 16:35 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Raton............Too funny !!!!!!!!

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:35 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Tks Tokyo for your posts.

I've been working on a totally free "way" or "method" using two accounts, of trading news day specials like today..it's worked for several months..today was the last straw hearing woes from unhappy traders. I thought I'd share it on Help Forum..nothing to buy...use exactly what you've got plus one more trading acct.. No programming of systems, no fees nor subscriptions, no technicals, no fundamentals, no BS & no mathy guru stuff...incredibly simple, gained me over $20k today on a $100k acct with almost no risk doing 7 trades. This is the usual gain. See Help Forum for latest post.

Boca Raton 16:34 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
===ARAFAT ALIVE===

Seen walking out of the back door of a large French bank, while holding Chirac's hand. More to follow.

perrie como 16:34 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Well GEP if you do rember that G7 last year that sparked the question about asean undervalued currencies. BOJ and MOF asked to triple their credit lines to sustain their politics. Guess they are near fully used margins again..

However recently they do not publish anymore some datas and this to me mean they can not afford It anymore (I mean to hold their currency undervalued)

We will see

g/l anyway

hk ab 16:33 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
note eur/gbp didn't take out 0.7......

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:33 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
so far 1 aus/yen short
2 cad long
1 Cable short
2 aussie short

holly...

tokyo Boj 16:33 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
"I'm 61 choice. I can probably do more on the top" -LOL

boston mpd004 16:32 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
added another short 2929

Chicago Goofy 16:32 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Dearl Traders, please stop trading at this significant point. Let the big sharks play with big sharks.

Sydney Alimin 16:32 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
now even 106-106.20 is a good resistance for usd/jpy, whoah interesting week ahead...looking forward to it very much
have a good w/e everyone...see you all next week

prague viktor 16:32 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
EU ZORRO ..G/L mate

KL KL 16:31 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8540 and eurusd 1.2936 sl 10 above...ny boys going home soon....I will just let it run...gt all time to rest!!

Dallas GEP 16:30 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
If the BOJ wants to, comparatively speaking these volumes are THINNER than normal.

melbourne farmacia 16:30 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Cable reference fwiw

1.8582 / 1.8554 / 1.8520 - ( 1.8440 )
1.8397 / 1.8322 / 1.8287

Kamensk Andy - nice call above 1.8500 today. GT

SanFrancisco TG 16:30 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Shroeder's bid for EU reform (flexibility) is meeting crushing resistance. It is clear there will be no progress for many years. As much as I used to bash Schroeder, he has snapped out of it in this respect and I must now give him all of my respect for doing so. Future EU economy should continue to be rigid, frigid, and underperforming.

LondonJoe 16:29 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I think BOJ will allow 100-102 lvl if it is an ordered decline

Dallas GEP 16:28 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Added some more LONGS on USD/JPY @ 105.57,,,stops still at 105.37 on all

perrie como 16:27 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Is there any YEN Zorro around :)))

100 $/Y now looks more possible than yesterday...at the end BOJ will give way, volumes are so huge even for them

Tokyo IM 16:26 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I am off for a Weekends. Have a good weekends all. GL

EU ZORRO 16:25 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
prague viktor 16:15...

...I will sell the order half @ 1,35....!!!!

hk ab 16:25 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Schroeder VS Chirac... interesting.

London Zappy 16:25 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
//slv sam 16:21 GMT
So you think ECB will just sit on its hands? Perhaps you have a point.

SanFrancisco TG 16:22 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
TJ - Not to worry my friend, only skipping by the channel of ENN.

Gen dk 16:21 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

slv sam 16:21 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
e/$ up move is not going to finish any time soon...as just said..story will be in the headlines all next week and till then...e/$ target 1.33xx would have been met...so basically no relief untill 1.33xx! all in my humble opinion of course!GT

Sydney Alimin 16:21 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Chicago goofy 16:17 GMT November 5, 2004

i am afraid the damage has been done, this is starting spiralling out of control, no idea when this will end

Chicago CME 16:20 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
c.a.p.i.t.u.l.a.t.i.o.n !

houston ken 16:20 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
7 trillion dollar in debt , this is no chicken change in fx. at a point in time it will reflect i think that dollar is way overvalue

Boston mpd004 16:20 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Trying short e/$ 2929 20 pip SL

Dallas GEP 16:17 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
WEll BOJ is really being pressed on this USD/JPY by market

Chicago goofy 16:17 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Who should we blame on? Save dollar!! weak dollar can do little on trade balance. This is speculation.....or we all may change our mindset.

EU ZORRO 16:17 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:13 //

...of course...in all DIPS...!!!

Halifax CB 16:17 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
BTW -looks like stocks are lining up for a bit of a hit too....

EU ZORRO 16:15 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   

...place some orders to unload half of long positons....

...have a nice weekend all.....and enjoy the newspapers headlines....!!!!

prague viktor 16:15 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
EU ZORRO:G.day mate ! what is ur next tgt 1,305-1,31G/L G/T

Budapest Daniel 16:15 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
what the H.E.L.L. is just happening?

Halifax CB 16:15 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Well there goes Cad....

Dallas GEP 16:13 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Let me guess ZORRO, BUY MORE EURO?????

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:13 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
cable short

EU ZORRO 16:12 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   


-----NEW HIGH EURO-----!!!!!

nyc Joel 16:11 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Gang
Take a look at the dollars fall this time last year
Looks like same scenario

Rivonia PipPirate 16:11 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Cable 18546 wouldbe nice

Gen dk 16:09 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sydney Alimin 16:09 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
so we do have new high for euro, dont we? what a way to end the week

Halifax CB: LOL btw it is now called WWE

slv sam 16:08 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
only verbal intervention can stabilize the US$ now..otherwise Monday early morning is another 100pips down!GT

GA TJ 16:08 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 16:03 GMT November 5, 2004
CNN FN (or is it CLIB?) busily running a propoganda documentary on

What would you expect from a soon to be out of business broadcast? But more importantly why would you watch that stuff? LOL. CNN FN has "LEFT" the building!

Toronto YV 16:07 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
cable , upper border weekly triangle gone.

London Zappy 16:06 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
//NYC 15:56 GMT
True, but my point is that there is and probably never has been a "Strong Dollar" policy, just look at the charts...

hk mom 16:06 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
1.2930 sell is taken. Good night.

Dallas GEP 16:06 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
WEll KL I am flat besides USD/JPY longs so I wish you the best. This markets provides the opportunity I suppose for larger movements so you could VERY well be right. LOOK AT CABLE MY GOD

KL KL 16:05 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
ok eurusd nicely following my advise....+33 now move short sl to 1.2933...max loss will be 3 pip...is this the drop coming...maybe

Bonn Karl 16:05 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
eur/$ ... 1.2936/40 done... possibility of 1.2965/70 very probable by today.

Helsinki iw 16:04 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/

Cut all dollar shorts ag EUR JPY CAD GBP and CHF just now.

Looks exhaustive to me and too obvious.

Good w/e all

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:04 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
another aussie here

Halifax CB 16:03 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Quite the battle on CAD right now at 1.20, this is more fun than WWF....

prague viktor 16:03 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez:Amigo her we are 1,29++G/L G/T

Helsinki CeCom 16:03 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD 1,2933 on censored

Boca Raton 16:03 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
40 The EUR/USD high.

Toronto YV 16:03 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
oil 48.95

SanFrancisco TG 16:03 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
CNN FN (or is it CLIB?) busily running a propoganda documentary on the 1930 stock market crash just in time to counter the huge jobs number. Gee, I better listen and sell stocks.

10 Year Note Yield is not going to significantly cross 4200 today so the dollar upside is set, there will be no more upside unless something inconsistent sets in.

KL KL 16:01 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP, I differ...setting my SAR at 1.2931 and move sl to 1.2906 locking in my +10 pips on eur long.

When it is so close less than 15 pips ...someone is going to make a lot of money and someone lose a lot. Another KO also at 1.2950 which will be defended well. Those options guys defending must be sweating now big time... just look at the flashes...not around 11-14 like a retreating army regrouping for the another onslaugth...LOL

Sydney Alimin 16:00 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
what's oil price now? well, with aud this high i think it is a good idea to fill up the petrol tank this weekend

Bonn Karl 16:00 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
USD down, down ... yes. haven't seen gold coast martin in a long time - hope he's well.

Halifax CB 15:59 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Just closed USDCAD shorts, desn't look like it has enough steam right now to break 1.20 .If we miss it, oh well, ....

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:59 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
dow is bye bye

perrie como 15:58 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Personally wd take a lot of care if Eur/usd touches 1.2930/40
Heavy loaded people will start the flight out of the Euro.

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:57 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
The USD charts to me refelct the following:
1. Mkt is still thinish so anything at all moves the chart.
2. The E/$ chart moved down, stayed less than an hour, recouped it all, went higher. That tells me a thin mkt coupled with non interest to change overall pattern (as a catalyst) by the largest mkt makers.
3. Today proved to me a stymie to the idea of any meaningful retrace before advance to 1.30s.

I bought Euros at exactly 1.2900..will add later still if/when move to 1.32+ proceeds. Wanted to buy 1/3 hour earlier for 40 pip better price..bank FX office was 1/3 hour late opening..blasted lazy Ecuadorian bankers. This adds to my Euros from 1.2420...stupid me, waited for the famed and touted retrace that never freeking happened. #%*!+^! Am on a healthy positive, no complaints at mkt..frustrated at myself for listening to floods of BS.

NYC 15:56 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Zappy. Not crazy but a ridiculous idea. Zero chance of that.

London Zappy 15:55 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I have a craaaazy theory to explain today's E/$ move: The Fed sold dollars to to stop NFP number from boosting the dollar too much !Ģ$Ģ^$&*@

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:55 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
aussie/yen going downtown..yeeehaaaaa

hk mom 15:55 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
gecko, we have cleaned 84.50. Should we chase?
I am still fat.....

Sydney Alimin 15:55 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
this euro is teasing us, come on, i got high of 1.2922, is it really hard to take out 1.2930?

Dallas GEP 15:54 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
That 1.2930 option has been mentioned. Market IMO has LITTLE chance of taking that out today

london 15:53 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish its all in there
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3984647.stm

KL KL 15:52 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Just look at eurusd....I long it and still tap dancing around 1.29 +/- 5 pips....if bear are so strong it would have fallen..if bull are so strong it would have gone up so something up there is being defended tonight big time...Don't tell me someone from China again...LOL

whoo up it goes spoke tooo soon

perrie como 15:51 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
now some daily banks squering, but guess on monday they will regret their moves

Syd 15:51 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish he went to see Arafat his mate

Tokyo IM 15:50 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
One question: what is so special about 1.2888 beside looking funny. I sow Euro bouncing from it for 4 - 6 hours and even on the way up it had some delay there.

Halifax CB 15:50 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin - No, I just trade it moment by moment. But there is an interesting article on Reuters via Yahoo that points out that a good US economy is also good for Canada, since we depend strongly on them and make up a huge part of US imports..Eventually what I see as the fundamental problems in the Canadian economy will come to the fore, but that takes a long time...So I'll probably spend more time going short USDCAD, than going long...

Dallas GEP 15:50 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
OK Boston I understand , My mistake, Generally tho alot of people think in terms of pip gain based on just 1 lot because we all trade different sizes. So if a long 105.62 gets closed @ 105.92 that's +30 pips even tho I might have 50 lots which is really a 1500 pip gain.

slv sam 15:50 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
must say this e/$ over 1.30 today is not unlikely possibility.GT

Helsinki CeCom 15:49 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Profit taking should come ine soon, as well as some technical downtrend should also start soon. Unless we make a new high tonight. Boy what a day its been sofar.

perrie como 15:49 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
ref Usd/Jpy once 105.45 gives way It's Rumba time

guess I deserve a good glace of wine as 4 me was enough stressful, but good

KL KL 15:49 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia, TQ...looking forward to it

Chicago Irish 15:49 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
London 15.15....Is Chirac there? :-)

Stockholm AGuy 15:46 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Mtl JP 15:41 GMT:
Yes, foreign (mainly Asian) central banks are the only ones still buying USD in quantity. I've posted on that before.

london 15:45 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
This actually should be good for the dollar and US in the long run

Iraqi Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi has joined EU leaders at a summit in Brussels marked by efforts to bury differences over the Iraq war
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3984647.stm

boston mpd004 15:45 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:24 GMT November 5, 2004
Boston , HIGH so far has been 1.2906

Maybe I wasn't precise in my posts, I went short at 2899 and got out at 2888 w/2 lots.

Sydney Alimin 15:44 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 15:38 GMT November 5, 2004

do you have any plan for usd/cad for next week mate? i think it might worth a try long next week after some stabilizing move

SanFrancisco TG 15:43 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
USD weakness has flattened. Rest of day move should be forthcoming.

Chicago Goofy 15:43 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I want to know the exact point of reversal in the morning. Did that happen in 13:30 for most of pairs? 13:30 is wats shown on my platform and why I ask is because I found the time in my platform is set the same as pc. SO I am afraid I my pc time lag behind the real news out time. Thanks.

Halifax CB 15:42 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Best of luck GEP....

Dallas GEP 15:42 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
OK took usd/jpy long @ 105.62 stop @ 105.37

Mtl JP 15:41 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 15:30 / The Fed said its overall holdings of Treasury and agency debt kept for overseas central banks rose $6.335 billion to $1.304 trillion in the week ending Oct. 27. (Reuters – link)

SanFrancisco TG 15:41 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
London - Deficit is a rock solid issue. Surplus was a product of reckless stimulation and malfeasance, hence its total collapse along with the wealth of most of the population from the recession and enron type scandals.

Weak dollar is repairing the damage of the fake surplus. Hence continued USD weakness has been ordered by the real chef. Can it pull back some? Sure, but above par it remains weak. DEM breaking 5500 set a new level for Euro.

1.2% drop in German production marketed as unexpected, but should be no surprise.

US will weaken the USD until the damage is corrected. Only when the US decides to stop the weakness will the EU economy begin to repair, then global trade. Weak USD is cushioning the deficit in the meantime, tax receipts up straight for last 2 years in US, unemployment rate below average of last 30 years.

The golden chalace will be if the EU listens to Shroeder and reforms its platform to be more flexible, and less constricting on everyone.

KL KL 15:40 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM, after analysing price action at that level 7 pips is ok for potential 30 or more. Also gold is supporting this break out...maybe another false break in gold today!!

Sydney Alimin 15:38 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 15:33 GMT November 5, 2004

LOL, dont tell me they are still trying now, punching the buttons like crazy :) and get the password finally after market closes today and suddenly monday morning we see gap? haha that's scary

Halifax CB 15:38 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin - I don't think BoJ are going to do much as long as whatever happens, happens slowly enough to allow their economy to adjust to the outcome.

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:35 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
BEIRUT MK 15:30 GMT November 5, 2004
Could you offer a reason why please..just posting a statement is like giiving us your shoe size.

Dallas GEP 15:34 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Ok trying to positon for usd/jpy long for short term trade, Will probably LONG when euro/usd prints 1.2905 (if it does again)

Tokyo IM 15:34 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
KL I would not long Fiber as of yet , too spooky. I see it revisiting 1.287(0-9) area before going higher.

Helsinki iw 15:34 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Zappy, more a question of who wants to buy that debt and at what price.

opo mw 15:34 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Tks raton, alimin
my platform shows 1.2926 as high...but ..never know...
GL/ GT all

melbourne farmacia 15:33 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
KL - Email details monday.

KL KL 15:33 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin, for your sake I will mention it LOL....BOJ again lost password to trigger buy USD...been so long they last used it that they are trying all those old ones and still error..

anmart sofia 15:32 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
07:01 GMT October 29, 2004
EUR/USD-1.2770.We bought for 1.2900
USD/JPY. We sell at 106.20 for 105.00.
Gold- 425.80. We buy for 431.20.

London Zappy 15:31 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
//SanFrancisco TG 15:23 GMT
I am seeking only to understand the balance of pressures. Never the less, An (almost) 8tln. debt is surely means something, and at the moment, there is no sign of a Clintonesque surplus on the cards to repay any of it. I wonder at what value the debt might peak at.

Atlanta-South 15:31 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Thanks to all who give their thoughts, comments & trading advice on this forum. I follow it everyday & find it very helpful to read other traders points of view. I just closed a long 2 lot EUR/USD for a 55 pt gain. This trade was entered just minutes after non farm announcement move settled down & reversed. Again thanks to all. I'm out for today.

Sydney Alimin 15:30 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Boca Raton 15:28 GMT November 5, 2004

my platform was 1.2908 though

Stockholm AGuy 15:30 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 15:23 GMT:
Try http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

BEIRUT MK 15:30 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
eurusd will close below 1.2860 today

Sydney Alimin 15:28 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
strange that no one mentions BOJ anymore in fact we are now lower than we were last week, will they allow 105 gone next week if eur really breaks to new high of this year and accelerates further?

Boca Raton 15:28 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
The high EUR/USD on Earth today is 1.2915.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:27 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
yhoo is finished...taking a 10 $ dive dudes

KL KL 15:27 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM, Katanas eh...looks like it is everthing heading higher to hurt more people...so monday maybe good day for me. I am frustrated so looking waiting ....sleeping...zzzz

I don't think eur will go down until the high is taken out decisively...not when it is so close....GBP / AUD also just riding the wave

So long eurusd 1.2896 some thing irrational sl 7 below

Farmacia - when is the next DOW turn then next week?

hk ab 15:25 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, every pips under 106 is a precious gift?
long with some strategy is still ok.

opo mw 15:25 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Hello, the highest of euro was 1.2926 beggining of this year?...so market will make a new year high...am i confused?!?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:25 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
9477 for next dow

Dallas GEP 15:24 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Boston , HIGH so far has been 1.2906

Boca Raton 15:24 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 15:21 GMT November 5, 2004

You mean the losers (I mean Democrats) army of lawyers?

melbourne farmacia 15:23 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Boca Raton - aljazeera

SanFrancisco TG 15:23 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
London - Can you explain to me when exactly the US became bankrupt? I haven't seen any true indication. I also haven't seen any true indication the US economy is doing any less than soaring.

Seriously, perhaps some of this should be factored as risk issue related to more pummeling in Iraq (Falushia and OBL tape).

PAR 15:21 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
If you buy US stocks you have to hedge your currency exposure and thats puting pressure on the dollar.

Gen dk 15:21 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bruxville Jim 15:21 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
(-RUMOUR-)

A possible explanation to this mess: Those 337K were students hired for campaigning:))

boston mpd004 15:20 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Out e/$ short 2899 +22

Dallas GEP 15:20 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
MA, I would guess actually that most people are not making money with these moves because the average stop tolerance on MOST specs is around 30-40 pips. So longs and shorts have both been stopped based on this criteria. Big players in my opinion have sold USD driving out weaaker shorts (mainly US!!!).

Dublin Flip 15:20 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Good point farmacia

It has long been mooted that Junior would clean house in Iraq once the election was out of the way.

Bonn Karl 15:20 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
going into next week Cable will reach 1.8645 and eur/$ 1.3010

London Zappy 15:18 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
One thing I would like to understand is this: It would appear that Bush is trashing the dollar by borrowing to spend on the "war", but I wonder if most of that money goes back to USA economy anyhow. Think of GIs sending their wages home, think of all the military equipment and where it is manufactured, USA mostly???

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:17 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
dow from 10400 will take nice beating

Boca Raton 15:17 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 15:12

What does it sound like? What do you mean by that? Can you clarify?

Tokyo IM 15:12 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
KL KL, they did not throw knifes they threw katanas so I guess it cut lots of people into halfs. I just cought first one for a 71 pip ride and out. then few scalps here and there. No I am flat for a safety purposes.

melbourne farmacia 15:12 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
KL - Last week mate.

Sounds like Fallujah going down tonight ( Baghdad time )

knoxville dan-k 15:11 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
usd/eur ---hummm, down down down in the burning ring of fire it goes down down down as the euro goes higher --huuummmmm lol

Helsinki iw 15:11 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Previous top still unbroken, last line of defence. Likewise 105.50/60 on USD/JPY.

ATL MA 15:10 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Hello forum! I haven't posted in several weeks. I hope everyone is making some money on these moves. I had been holding onto the summer ranges but let go when eurusd broke out, and i've been selling dollars since then, especially against AUD. I've been trading options more than spot lately. Days like today make me glad of it...phewww....but then again, for those trading spot, the market gave you some great entry levels to sell dollars earlier on the NFP....usdchf popped up all the way to the 10 day MA on the Daily and allowed me to get some one-touches fairly cheap for a move to the downside. But taking a look at the charts, everybody should be making money recently and in coming weeks....this is what you all wanted so enjoy it while it lasts! GT and GL

Dallas GEP 15:10 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Interesting action on EURO. With the time expiration of the 1.29 option, the BUYERS were allowed to take 1.29 BUT there has been no follow thru yet. Shorters could probably try 1.2912 stop longers could try 1.2887 stop

HK Kevin 15:10 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, take care. EUR bulls have finished their jobs, while JPY bulls not yet.

KL KL 15:08 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
ldn SAM - the second it is touched!!expires worthless

KL KL 15:06 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM, I could not even see the knives today...so when cannot see sinseh said just stay low....listen. Look at how high they are going...nice set up for bungee plunge without ropes. Those who shorted ..pity pity Looks like eur gunning for KO at 1.2930...cable heading for 1.85...an outside day developing in all....People beginning to discount NFP as one off??

Farmacia you have turn date for Dow is it today!!tia

Dallas GEP 15:05 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
1.2908 stop taken on EUR/USD possie. Will see if we have continuations on longs. SEEMS to be real battle of course. I think from HERE it is STILL more liokely to short but RUN a tight stop!!!!

Sydney Alimin 15:03 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
LOL look at usd/cad, it is just hopeless and helpless

hk mom 15:03 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
These moves are too obvious to take out 1.29 option.
It passes after 10:00 NY.
exited euro buy now waiting to sell.
Hope 1.2930 can be reached.

Stockholm AGuy 15:02 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
ldn SAM 14:59 GMT:
Yes. It just was, BTW...

Sydney Alimin 15:02 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
watch eur/gbp for 0.7

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:00 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
anmart sofia 14:59 GMT November 5, 2004
DJIA - next target 10 600.

No way

ldn SAM 14:59 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
What is the rule with knockout options...Let's say I have a 1.2900 k/o....Is it automatically knocked out if we print 1.2900 or above before expiry?

Santo Domingo tht 14:59 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
....a repetition of last years sell off......

anmart sofia 14:59 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
DJIA - next target 10 600.

Bris TW 14:58 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
jcr
There is only 1 bank that you can retail trade spot with. suxo isnt cause it really isnt a bank. Commerce c-b-f-x is the one and you can choose what size you want. Not stuck in a mini or full lot size and never have wierd price action, stop hunts like ALL brokers do.

Santo Domingo tht 14:57 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Looking forward to last years dollar pre xmas sell off. A trend is a trend.

sunny place noobi 14:56 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
i'm using an -a.c.m- demo account now. just getting the grips before jumping onborad. seems to respond well. the prices are consistent with other sources, but then again, for now it's just "monopoly" money, so i can't complain about the platform.

GER ad 14:56 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki CeCom 14:50,
The sharp sell off of the currencies after the NFP hat given to dollar bears extra ammunition.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:55 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
2 nd levels
EURUSD 1.2989 1.2486
USDJPY 108.2690 104.5845
GBPUSD 1.8562 1.8028
USDCHF 1.2284 1.1746
EURCHF 1.5409 1.5185
AUDUSD 0.7610 0.7295
USDCAD 1.2474 1.2038
NZDUSD 0.7153 0.6772
EURGBP 0.7028 0.6878
EURJPY 137.8848 133.4384
GBPJPY 196.7073 192.0349
CHFJPY 90.2217 87.0774
GBPCHF 2.2289 2.1682
EURAUD 1.7316 1.6783
EURCAD 1.5834 1.5375
AUDCAD 0.9269 0.9020
AUDJPY 80.7939 77.9075

melbourne farmacia 14:55 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
KL - This 1.8440 level could swing back down, but only holding this intraday number.... cable's on speed tonight..

Tokyo IM 14:55 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
KL KL, did you start catching knifes ?

LDN SAM 14:54 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
What is the rule with knockout options...Let's say I have a 1.2900 k/o....Is it automatically knocked out if we print 1.2900 or above before expiry?

Bonn Karl 14:53 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
eur/$ .... 1.2936/40 is going to trade today

hk ab 14:53 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Could this be news from China.....

london xyz 14:53 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
as i posted the other day, the election is old news, now payrolls have proved the data story is old news.....the dollar is dancing to structural tunes, the sooner everyone gets to grips with this, the better.

London Zappy 14:51 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I am up over 20 pips just from closing the call half of the E/$ straddle, the put if worthless at the moment, bit it cost me nothing to hold it 'till 9pmGMT. If E/$ can close below 1.2810, I will be very happy. However, I am amased at this market. Who can make a prediction these days? Me, I just look for gambling oppertunities.

Helsinki CeCom 14:50 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
imagine where we would have gone today if the NFP would have been bad...

hk ab 14:50 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
nt//still collecting dlr/jpy long stamps?

KL KL 14:49 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia , base on price action you planning to short soon??

Tokyo IM 14:49 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
anyone likes/used A#C#M?

KL KL 14:48 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
could eurusd be gunning for ko option at 1.2930.?..I am waiting

melbourne farmacia 14:48 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
KL - In from bounce : see 04:38 GMT
Scale out 1.8440.. trail rest.

Dallas GEP 14:48 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
STOP on eur/usd shorts is 1.2908

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:47 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
another cad long 2nd level

GER ad 14:47 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Sorry GBP/CHF,
long at 2.1870

Dallas GEP 14:46 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
This move we just saw against dollar was a fundamental one. Saw a BUNCH of EURO orders come in (no details) 1.2900 option expires in 15 minutes

orlando jcr 14:46 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
TW,

Recommendations on where to go for actual "bank"....
I'm not a big fish, but GT* makes some nice money on my 3-10 trades/day whether I make money or not.

GER ad 14:46 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Long GBP/CHF at 2.1970 (could be a longer term position)

Helsinki CeCom 14:44 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:41 GMT November 5, 2004 ,

thatīs exactly what I did, listend to myself.....:/, well 1 day you loose one day you win...:/

orlando jcr 14:43 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Quito,

I was planning on much more than 30PIP today...
I'm just talking about that one scalp.

Maybe I should be thankful that my platform has had problems because $/Y doesn't make sense.
Strong $ news and it pops up just 30-45 pips. Now it has given it all back plub more. I'm sure i would have been wrong on that and losing more money.

Boca Raton 14:43 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas you mean 1.2990 right?

Dallas GEP 14:42 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
GBP longs probably driven right now by EUR/GBP shorting DOWN

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:41 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki CeCom 14:34 GMT November 5, 2004
I am sure sorry you "got burned". I would have had I listened to others. I was flat..so my losses were potential wins I could have made. I made a model at the first of the year and thus far it wasn't off course. Stupid me I deviated from that model in practice and I COULD HAVE scooped up from 1.2320. Today I did the opposite of the soothsayers reccommendations on a demo and won exactly $21.1k on 50:1 leverage using less than 20% of my account...just to see. I think Helsinki that it's best to believe in one's self and forget any advice you see here.

Gen dk 14:41 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 14:41 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
In God and the EURO we trust .

Dallas GEP 14:41 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Shorted EURO @ 1.2890

KL KL 14:40 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia how are you trading cable are you in yet??Tia

Dallas GEP 14:40 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
This is NOT a technical move against DOLLAR, big boys driving stops IMO timeframes indicate DOLLAR will long

Tokyo IM 14:40 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Staying flat since 20 min ago. waiting for the dust to setle down

GER ad 14:39 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
AUD/JPY,
out at 80.52

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:38 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
cad long 1st level

Boulder DAT 14:38 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
The next real important peice of data that the market will be closely looking at is the all-too important Trade balance coming out on the 10th. I can't remember a time when this number came out dollar positive. I'm starting to position myself for this number and an increasing dollar decline.

hk ab 14:38 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
The next thing might be the talk from ECB....
This group of eur bulls are mighty to take out the options before too late... The NFP didn't help them, now they help themselves.
Is Arafat still ok? They might want his help too.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:38 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
aussie short 1 st level

LDN SAM 14:38 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
What'sgoing on EURO??

Sydney Alimin 14:38 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
this is significant, dollar once again unable to maintain its gain after such a good condition had been created....should say byebye to dollar

slv sam 14:37 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
shorting euro was a bad idea and was abvious to me at least! anyway survivors can try again Monday...i think they have better chance then..have a nice weekend.GT

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 14:37 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Is InterbankFX or FXDirectDealer on the positive list or the negative list? comment on these two guys?

TIA:-)

SP 14:37 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi, newbie here.
What is happening now? the markets are crazy since an hour ago...

London Zappy 14:36 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
closed the call part of my straddle at 1.2876

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:35 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
well, back to normal fellas...that's what I get for listening to 1.27 retrace stories...another 50 pips gone to the wind. Enough of this..buying Euros no matter if God says not to. Tired of losing out all the way to 1.32. GT everyone. Sticking to my model now 100%.

melbourne farmacia 14:35 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Taking out 1.2900 option by fix

Boston mpd004 14:35 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Out e/$ +34, -30, +20..flat now

GA TJ 14:34 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Just curious as to anyone consider taking EURUSD Long. Market behavior is somewhat strange. Starting to read stuff about how these numbers are not that good. Hmmmmm. Big boys protecting?

SanFrancisco TG 14:34 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Some age old futures firms provide spot forex. They are regulated. After using some of these "dealers" I've gone to the real companies and have had flawless performance, and I mean flawless. I'll stop here.

Helsinki CeCom 14:34 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
boy did I get burned today...

Dallas Mauricio 14:33 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Cable filled the Gap.

Boulder DAT 14:33 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
The rather muted reaction from some very positive data suggests that the markets focus is somewhere esle, and can't be distracted. I have been waiting for a good bounce in the dollar to take on some new positions at better prices. It doesn't look as if the market will give me that opportunity. I'm reminded of last year when the dollar was in a slow steady decline all throughout November and December. IT looks like history is going to repeat itself. Time to get aggressive with dollar selling.

Bris TW 14:33 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I was with the same broker for over a year JCR. Actually ive been with most criminal brokers. I got out when they changed their stop policy and when they upgraded their software to the current version. They used to be very good and easy to scalp at any time. Not anymore.

My current broker filled an AT market short on euro seconds after data and allowed a 80 pip scalp with no problems.
PS I deal with a BANK not a Broker ;)

Tokyo IM 14:33 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Wow, look at a Fiber .

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:30 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I am keeping this short to 78.13
Shorting more at Your level

KL KL 14:29 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
still waiting....big boys having a nice meal imho...we need to just gather the crumbs later...

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:29 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
VERY RESPECTFULLY, 15 pips in action like that is understandable actually..gap in there too somewhere likely..if you only make 30 pips in a day with this kind of volitility you ought to review your trading methods. Out of a possible 225 pips in the last half hour you should have grabbed 75 at least. Only a suggestion.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:29 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
These are My orders for today
already one went through

EURUSD 1.2963 1.2511
USDJPY 108.0837 104.7655
GBPUSD 1.8536 1.8053
USDCHF 1.2260 1.1769
EURCHF 1.5394 1.5199
AUDUSD 0.7592 0.7313
USDCAD 1.2458 1.2053
NZDUSD 0.7136 0.6788
EURGBP 0.7015 0.6890
EURJPY 137.5315 133.7861
GBPJPY 196.3056 192.4323
CHFJPY 90.0044 87.2904
GBPCHF 2.2249 2.1721
EURAUD 1.7274 1.6824
EURCAD 1.5797 1.5410
AUDCAD 0.9249 0.9040
AUDJPY 80.5625 78.1350

GER ad 14:28 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:23 GMT,
Short AUD/JPY at 80.60 earlier and reversed now at 80.31 (20 pips S/L)

Tokyo IM 14:28 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
orlando jcr 14:25 GMT November 5, 2004 // strange. same people did not have problems like that ever.

JHB jw 14:28 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
The Worst thing about this G*F*censored* bullsh, is that they do not take your stop loss with the entry, the least I would expect

Dallas Mauricio 14:27 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Fiber=Euro right? TIA

mumbai Goldman 14:27 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
hi vikram u still there...

orlando jcr 14:25 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Just more GRRRRR at GF***T...

I placed my buy order at 8:30EST when $/Y was about 106.25 and they didn't fill it until 106.40...

...I understand that there is some slippage in volatile markets but 15 PIPS seems like a lot. That's half my profit for the day.... GRRRRR

Gen dk 14:25 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 14:25 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Fed funds futures pricing in over an 80% chance of additional 25 bp rate hike at the December FOMC meeting if a 25 bp hike also occurs in November, compares with 54% chance of a second rate hike in December prior to the jobs release

knoxville dan-k 14:24 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
i agree

Tallinn viies 14:24 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
from IFR : EUR/USD: Asians Buying Back Option Protection

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 14:24 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 14:02 GMT November 5, 2004

I agree with your comment to JCR. platforms such as these who target your stops, log off platform when news come in etc. Such short time platforms, brokers and market makers(by using suspicious means) who wont care for their clients or traders who would like to pursue their dreams thru hard work and trading the forex market will soon be down and out. Insuarance companies have been target by legal authorities and slowly all these dirts who play with the common man's money will be be dealt with and if there is any sense in any platform or broker or market maker to stay long-term in the business world, they should make amends now. No matter how big you are, if you are NOT pure in your motives and dont care for your client's you shall be broken down into pieces.

Anyway, just wanted to throw a pice of mind out. gl with your trades everyone. Outta here now.

TIA:-)

Calcutta Vikram 14:23 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Knoxwille.......
Currently the probability is 50-50. And I am square as I do not know where the Euro will close tonight. My HUNCH is it will close below 1.2800, but that is neither here nor there. I have to wait and see what the market actually does - for THAT will change the probability one way or the other. And then I will know what to DO. At least at this moment the 50-50 probability tells me I should just relax.

A forecast which does not come with a sense of a probability is a forecast which can try harder. And a forecast which always comes with a 30-70 or even a 40-60 probability is not worth trusting, because it is not based on reality where many times you just don't know what's going to happen. You have to wait for a signal for the 50-50 to change.

Finally, a forecast is not what matters. Its meaningless. Its what you DO that counts. That's why TRADING is infinitely more difficult than FORECASTING

As regards my hunch that the Euro might close below 1.28, am I doing anything about it? I am Short on EUR-JPY where I think the probabilities are better.

Take care, my Friend

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:23 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
any think aus/yen is a sell to 78.13?

Tallinn viies 14:22 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
dont like this move.
cover my short at1,2827
fwiw
later again

orlando jcr 14:21 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Somehwat disappointing market...
today's numbers were much better than last months numbers were bad, and yet last month we had a HUGE drop in USD.

Is the market just already factored in for USD+ and only reacts on poor news? Was hoping for more profits today.

knoxville dan-k 14:19 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
think about this: if here in the U.S. we have only 1,000 students graduate on average per day that means that we need about 365,000 new jobs per year now if we only get 200,000 in 4 years then a lot of people are out of work, not to mention the regular workers that are out of work, now in a 4 year period how many jobs in America needs to be created to keep people in jobs/money--lol figures do not add up. guess mackeydees and a few orange pickers may give up jobs to some grad students fyi

Cairo MDR 14:19 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Nov 5 9:17AM U.S. labor market not as strong as reported: economist WASHINGTON (AFX) -- "The true state of the labor market is nothing like as strong as this report" from the Labor Department that employment grew by 337,000 in October, said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics. "These numbers make it very tempting to call the end of the soft patch but we are reluctant to do so." He said Fed rate hikes in December and February are still uncertain. "The real test for payrolls will come over the next couple of months, as the hurricane effect fades."

orlando jcr 14:19 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
finally back in....!!!
Though, now I don't know what to do because I haven't been able to see anything for 50 minutes.

Looks like $/Y is in reversal.
Do people think this is the real trend or is the market hunting?
Maybe wait 30 more minutes?

London Zappy 14:17 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I decided not to wait for 1.3 E/$ so I bought a E/$ straddle at about 1.2810 as volatility seems good at the moment.

GA TJ 14:15 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
There are times in life when doing the right thing really sucks. As posted 30 minutes before data release I got sell signals on EURUSD. Also noted that pre-release price actions were pointing down. Smart thing to do is not trade that clsoe to a report. However the coulda, woulda, shoulda thing can really censored you off. LOL

will wait another 30 minutes and then make some decisions. Still flat.

boston mpd004 14:14 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
short e/$ 2805

Halifax CB 14:13 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
boston - the NFP is up, but unemployment has not declined (it's up marginally). White collar jobs were up, but a large component was temporary. (Maybe they were lawyers for the Bush & Kerry :). Another big contributor was clean up & construction related to the hurricanes. There is a substantial number of people returning to the job force apparently, which isn't necessarily good, as it lowers wages and may indicate increased financial demands on consumers from credit,etc. Just some thoughts....

Cairo MDR 14:11 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
*ECONOMIST: OCT. JOBS HINT AT STRONG CONSUMER SPENDING

Dallas Mauricio 14:10 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I also use Tried... & my Stop entry was filled 6 pips below my entry which is a censored of a lot better than my last dealer would have done. At least they did it in the right sequence!

Sydney Alimin 14:10 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
just keep it simple guys, short euro , numbers are good, this is friday, and we have had very long IMM commitment on euro, just leave it till NY lunch time

knoxville dan-k 14:09 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
lol--i like that 50% probablity up and 50% probability it will go down, safe prediction imho--lol

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:09 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Just shorted aus/yen target 78.13 for now

KL KL 14:07 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
should have could have would have ...wait....

houston st 14:06 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   

JCR -- other then a few hours of downtime earlier in the week I've had no problems...I had to relogon around 10:30 gmt today but I assumed that was my wireless connection...since then no problems, and I did do some deals during the data release and afterward with no issues...I do recall that sometimes if you log off and the server has problems you can't log back on until its resolved...hope it clears up for you...good trades.

Calcutta Vikram 14:06 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi All. Butting in with my two-paise bit.....
Possibly the market will just slowly go to sleep now. Its been an exciting week. Next week could see the Euro come off to about 1.2650 (placing a 50% probability on this at the moment), which might be a good time to go Long again. IN CASE the market closes above 1.2850 today, we can go Long on Monday. Cheers and G'night

NewYork frankie 14:06 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
their going to hit stops both ways. We'll be going down again, take a gulp of air!

Cairo MDR 14:05 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
WASHINGTON (AFX) -- U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by a surprisingly large 337,000 in October, about double what economists had expected, the Labor Department reported Friday. It was the largest gain in nonfarm payrolls since March. In addition, payroll gains in August and September were revised higher by a cumulative 115,000, according to the government survey of 400,000 workplaces. Bonds sold off drastically, pushing the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to 4.22 percent. The dollar and U.S. stock futures surged on the news. Meanwhile, a separate survey of 60,000 households showed both employment and unemployment rose during the month. The unemployment rate climbed a tenth to 5.5 percent. The labor participation rate was steady at 65.9 percent. Economists had been expecting payrolls to grow by about 175,000 in October and for the unemployment rate to remain at 5.4 percent, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. A part of October's hiring surge was due to rebuilding and cleanup activities in the Southeast following four hurricanes in August and September, said Kathleen Utgoff, commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. She didn't quantify the extent of hurricane-related hiring. Job growth has averaged 225,000 in f an hour, and total hours worked in manufacturing fell 0.3 percent. Construction industries added 71,000 jobs, with rebuilding and cleanup a major factor. Services industries added 272,000 jobs, the most since April. Retail jobs increased by 21,000. Professional and business services increased by 97,000, including 48,000 temporary help jobs. The number of industries adding workers over the past three months dipped to 58.1 percent in October from 61 percent in September. Within manufacturing industries, 42.3 percent have added workers in the past three months, the lowest rate since December

orlando jcr 14:05 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
TG,

I went with them because I really like the visual of their paltform versus others...

... But I have to say that I have had many stability problems with them. When it is real active the system sometimes doesn't accept your order and you have to exit/enter to restablish connection...

...that's what got me to where I am now - first time the market has had some volitility in some time and I can't make any money on it - GRRRRR...!!

slv sam 14:05 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
sell $/y is the best opprtunity I can see at the moment inho.GT

knoxville dan-k 14:04 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
thats a good example if anyone ever trades stocks and have seen street smart pro or cyber pro they have spent a ton of money on these platforms, and so has the forex mm's that are worth trading with,

Tokyo IM 14:04 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I learned one thing about anauncements from a hard expirience. Never trade Cable during US$ effecting annauncements. This thing is reactive and will knock you off in 1 ms.

sg 14:04 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
well, although I use Tried,Tested, Trusted seems I'm much better of not using SL order. Profitable position turned into a loosing one.

Cairo MDR 14:04 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
OCT JOB GROWTH EX-HURRICANE ABOVE 250,000

Cairo MDR 14:03 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Odds for December Fed hike increase after jobs data

orlando jcr 14:03 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
houston / st,

have you been on all along or have you been in/out.
I haven't been able to get back in.
I sure was hoping to get more than +15, but I won't trade over the phone without seeing some live charts.

SanFrancisco TG 14:02 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
jcr - thats another one that i see comments about constantly. Go with a real trading firm thats been around since before they set up shop. These imitation trading co's wont start spending money on real servers/platforms and give real dealing rates until they lose enough customers that they are forced to.

boston mpd004 14:00 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
If numbers are good, why the big reverse here?

houston st 13:58 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   

JCR -- no problems here...working properly (and profitably) so far...good luck.

knoxville dan-k 13:58 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
something else u might want to consider is to use mental stop losses and execute them at your target with a limit order or better, rather than a market order, also have your brokers number on speed dial just in case!!

Tokyo IM 13:58 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Where do we short Fiber / Cable?

Tallinn viies 13:58 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
numbers were really good but price behaviour is not exactly what I expected

Helsinki CeCom 13:58 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I must say I am a bit surprised by the muted reaction so far

orlando jcr 13:57 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
anybody having problems with GF-,T Deal Book....
My platform kicked me out right at after the news came out.
Now I can't log in and actually make money when the market is actually moving.

man, I'm ticked off....!!!
Luckily I got one small position in and was able to cash out at +15 through the call in - who are not very helpful either.

Dallas Mauricio 13:57 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I highly agree!

Dallas GEP 13:54 GMT November 5, 2004
On big data annoucements, it is somestimes BETTER to wait 30-45 minutes AFTER data toi see what short term trend is developing.

knoxville dan-k 13:56 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
dont know who you use as a broker but my s/l's have alwayse hit where i set them

KL KL 13:56 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM, believe me or not I am not in yet as I wait for the stop hunt to work now...see up it comes again...just to frightening...just chewing all up ...get ready to short!!

Dallas GEP 13:56 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
OUT at +17 on Eur/gbp shorts FLAT now

slv sam 13:55 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
back to business?!

Dallas GEP 13:54 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
On big data annoucements, it is somestimes BETTER to wait 30-45 minutes AFTER data toi see what short term trend is developing.

Illinois DB 13:53 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Wow!
The Birth/Death Model of US job creation has been adding "jobs" to US employment reports for years now, in many cases almost all the jobs "created" were due to this mathematical model.
BUT in the report for this month, the model added only 42K jobs instead of 100-200K as was common earlier this year (except January, where 300K were actually subtracted due to post-Xmas layoffs).
So this months report is excellent, a good solid 300K real, reported hirings.

Halifax CB 13:53 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
SG - in a fast moving market, yes. A s/l just becomes a market order once the s/l point is reached, then you get basically whatever is available. If you were trading against what turned ut to be a big gap up in the USD, you get stuck with it. (BTW - it's a good reason not to trade around big releases w/o deep pockets, since there can be large jumps either way as the market (in)digests information before settling on a move....

Tokyo IM 13:53 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Close Fiber +71 +3 +3 -12 pips. KL KL, how many knifes did you catch ?

HK [email protected] 13:53 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
One has to keep now eyes on oil prices for additional guidance.
Another $$$ bull may emerge from there!

Surabaya Medallion 13:53 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
What a surprise. I still can't believe the 300,000+ figures. I guess I had better shut up cause I'm wrong in Oil, Yen and NFP.

boston mpd004 13:50 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Closed e/$ +34

Tokyo IM 13:50 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
sg 13:47 GMT November 5, 2004, some times price moves there and it is just no ploted on the graph. So I suppose if you look into the pips graph you will see that it did hit there.

Syd 13:49 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
perrie como think your right , they probaby had the nod earlier and why nobody was worried.

HK [email protected] 13:48 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Early this morning I came up with some supporting arguments for not keeping gold(sideline).
So this time it worked!!!

HK [email protected] 02:11 GMT November 5, 2004
HK [email protected] 02:53 GMT November 5, 2004

My suggestion...Buy on bargain in all domains of life.

About Chirac...Since the meeting with Arafat it is better to watch this guy LOL.

Dallas Mauricio 13:48 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Unfortunately yes. Still waiting on my executions.

sg 13:47 GMT November 5, 2004
My broker just executed my SL 40 pips below my price. Is it common?

SanFrancisco TG 13:48 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
The NFP gains have moved right in line with a consistent straight line uphill in US tax receipts going back to FEB 2002, which works to reduce the deficit.

sg 13:47 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
My broker just executed my SL 40 pips below my price. Is it common?

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 13:47 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
good luck everyone. play safe
TIA:-)

Gen dk 13:44 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

perrie como 13:43 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Think the best forum trader today is:

Chirac


:)

Halifax CB 13:43 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Any news on the other numbers expected this morning?

Syd 13:43 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Got to let it sink in and the Fed meeting next week will now consider more hikes

Dallas GEP 13:41 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
OK still in EUR/GBP short, tried to sell @ 1.8400 on CABLE....platform dead I suppose...no response

Sydney Alimin 13:40 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
let's see where we end up 1-2 hours from now, give some time for participants to decide

Gen dk 13:39 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Tallinn viies 13:38 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
sold at 1,2830.
stop at 1,2906.
cu near 1,2650

perrie como 13:37 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Think the markets will take little longer to digest such a surprise data.

It seems It changes the whole picture of whatever was written in analysis recently.

let'see

SanFrancisco TG 13:36 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
WOW. Glad I don't trade on my fundamental analysis haha. Tech is intact though. Huge positive US data.

Tallinn viies 13:35 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
why euro doesnt fall?
numbers extemly good

slv sam 13:35 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
the trend is your friend! buy the euro!!GT

Gen dk 13:35 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Helsinki CeCom 13:34 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I am also short on EUR/USD

Halifax CB 13:34 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Interesting number, very close to 10x the Cdn number, which means the two are quite parallel as the US pop. is 10x the canadian one...

pakistan sajid 13:34 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
337000

Pecs Andras 13:33 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Number is 337K

melbourne farmacia 13:32 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
+ 337K

Pecs Andras 13:32 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Great
I am in with short aussie at 7576

Sydney Alimin 13:30 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
woohoooooooooooooooooooooo

bombay a 13:30 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
what was the data

Sydney Alimin 13:27 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
i am betting on eur/usd going down, thank you very much, let's go!

HK [email protected] 13:27 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
HONG KONG (AFX) - Hong Kong dollar one-year forward discounts have widened near
record levels on a rise in the Hong Kong interbank liquidity and on heightened
speculation about the appreciation of the yuan, money dealers said.

The spot rate was quoted at 7.750-7.755, with forward discounts at 1300-1280
pips, widening from the 1180-1160 range yesterday.

The discounts approached their highs of 1335-1300, indicating a further
strengthening of the Hong Kong currency against the US dollar, dealers said.

"The widening was due to speculation that China is moving toward a more flexible
exchange rate regime," Tommy Ong, DBS Bank managing director for Treasury Sales,
said.

Speculators are betting that a currency revaluation could happen soon following
a fresh spike in Chinese interest rates, the mainland's first in nine years.

Speculators were also encouraged by comments from Guo Shuqing, the director of
the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), that the mainland will
continue to implement a market-driven managed exchange rate.

Guo was quoted by China Daily as saying that China "will continue to implement a
market-driven managed floating exchange rate system." The comments came
following calls from the US and other Western countries to revalue the yuan.

"The market continues to speculate that China is moving toward changing its yuan
policy. Expectations are that the yuan could be revalued by as much 5 pct," a
trader from a local bank said.

He noted that the Hong Kong dollar has strengthened as a result.

"The Hong Kong dollar has moved in sympathy with other regional currencies and
amid speculation on the yuan as traders regard the Hong Kong dollar as a trading
currency substitute for the China unit," he said.

DBS' Ong also attributed the widening of forward discounts to Hong Kong's
growing interbank liquidity.

"The large Hong Kong interbank liquidity also put pressure on the forwards. This
was a result of the widening of the interest rate differential between the usd
and the hkd. Such are reflected automatically on forward discounts," he said

London Zappy 13:26 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
//Dallas Mauricio 11:34 GMT
I don't know about Cable straddle, but E/$ straddle looks interesting, but not until we get nearer to $1.3 At that level (if reached), I am expecting the market to get a bit twitchy.
All IMHO.

Melbourne Qindex 13:25 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Halifax CB 13:22 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
re the stocks; as the clearing takes several days, bad NFP numbers could just generate big sales on the market from foreign accounts...

slv sam 13:18 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
e/$ at less than 100 pips from all time high just before the important US data implies new all time high on bad data!GT

Halifax CB 13:12 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I agree nh, that's why I'm sitting on the sidelines. OTOH, our base unemployment is still pretty bad, and we (at least out here in NS) are too lazy to work on Sundays so that we don't have to rely on forced charity from harder working Ontarians, Albertans, and even the BC stoners... :)

Tokyo IM 13:11 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
KL KL, which direction are you preparing for the ride on?

GA TJ 13:10 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I am gettting signal to Short EURUSD. Not going to take it this close to a major report. I did a breif study on price action (not very deep study) before a major report. About 2/3 of the time price went in the same direction post-report as pre-report. My guess is that EURUSD will drop.

This study needs a lot more detailed work so I will not trade off of it. But I did find it interesting.

Camp Delta No-one-will-escape 13:08 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Enough sadsack

Livingston nh 13:07 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB - the EVIL canadians seem to be producing nearly as many jobs (34k +) as we are down here -- it is hard to resist those parity calls

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 13:05 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
AS TIME RUNNING


MY LIFE RUNING SO FAST


SO LET TIME WALK

Ldn 13:04 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Associated Press
Chirac Worried About Weakness of Dollar
11.05.2004, 07:05 AM
French President Jacques Chirac said Friday he was concerned about the weakness of the U.S. dollar and hinted that the European Union should react to the situation.
"I am a little bit worried about the weakness of the dollar," Chirac said. Chirac added that Europe should consider the consequences the weak dollar could have on economic development and EU exports. He called on the European Central Bank to closely examine the situation.
"This should provoke certain reactions on our part," Chirac added. He declined to elaborate. Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Zapatero sounded more cautious in attempting to halt the rise of the euro.

"We can't speak of a ceiling," he said during a summit here of European leaders.

The ECB has kept euro-zone interest rates unchanged for 16 consecutive months at 2 percent. Most analysts still bet the bank will not raise interest rates for several quarters.

After the ECB held rates steady at its meeting Thursday, bank president Jean-Claude Trichet declined to comment on the euro exchange rate, other than to warn that the bank didn't like sudden moves. "Excessive volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates are undesirable for economic growth," he said.

The strong euro hurts growth by making Europe's exports more expensive in export markets.

The 12-country currency rose Thursday to an eight-month high against the dollar of US$1.2896, not far from its all-time high of US$1.2927 set in February. The dollar was up slightly against the euro in morning trading Friday.

Halifax CB 13:02 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
We're looking for a bit of a run up in the CADUSD on the assumptions that a) the NFP numbers should be good, since
1)a disgruntled electorate tends to vote against the party in power (and the GOP did quite well in the elections,) and
2)It takes 3 days for cash to get withdrawn from my CAD account to cover buys in the US market; I assume people with more money than I get even more favourable deals, but those bills are due now...

If I was a betting man I'd even put money on it, but I'm not & will wait & see which way the wind blows..

slv sam 12:59 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
e/$ may ease for the next 30 minutes to start up from lower level imho!GT

Helsinki CeCom 12:57 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
the most extreme analysis of NDP Iīve read was +375,000. Would be great.....but not gonna happen.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 12:57 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
so how's everyone doing? EURUSD being capped still. exciting match aus-india.

TIA:-)

Sydney Alimin 12:53 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
if that is the case, i think watch usd/jpy, eur/usd and usd/cad

KL KL 12:52 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies, I hope so too...if that is the case which pair do you think will fall hardest??

hk ab 12:48 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Can the dlr/chf made 3 key day reversals in a week?... Amazing.

Tallinn viies 12:47 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
after so many dissapointments, NFP numbers finally should suprise to upside inho

perrie como 12:44 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
there are several forecast ranging 150 to 205

do not know what will come out printed ...

PS
look at 10 year yields those will move as first

KL KL 12:35 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I get ready, excited with bullets filled gun & I still have to wait 1 more hour....sheeze. This time switch a pain in neck!!#@$^#

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 12:23 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
1.2723 1.3000

large range

Plovdiv Gotin 12:23 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I have 175K.

San Diego DC 12:21 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Re: Improving the range of accuracy for Support/Resistance (S/R) lines:
This 10 pip range I mentioned is for EUR/$

perrie como 12:20 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Non-farm payrolls for October are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST

192,000 is the consensus estimate according to a survey by the Journal.

A lower than expected number should drive 10yrs yields back below 4.0%.

Higher will be US DOLLAR BULLISH!!

g/l

Lndn Frnd 12:19 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
from IFR calendar
05Nov 12:30 USD Nonfarm Pyrls ,000 Oct 125 96 160 115 325
05Nov 12:30 USD Unemployment Rt % Oct 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.5
05Nov 12:30 USD Avg Hrly Erngs %m/m Oct 0.3

San Diego DC 12:19 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Improving the range of accuracy for Support/Resistance (S/R) lines:

Most traders are familiar with the floor trader pivots (most software packages have them) for a given day and/or a week..... and also use the mid points between those lines as S/R lines. This is all well known. This is with charts with candles or bars.

When u use point and figure charts , you will get different S/R lines than candles for the same time frame chart. For the purpose of S/R lines, I have used a box size of 1 pip and a reversal factor also of 1 pip on E-signal charts.

I noticed that when you compare the S/R lines of candles to that of the Point&Figure charts, the lines that are within 10 pips of each other between the 2 charts turn out to be the significant points of S/R for any given day.

Sydney Alimin 12:16 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
how's data from canada?

Singapore Sfx 12:14 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Cheers mate - - and all the best this evening.

NY Coolman 12:13 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
NFP is due at 1330 GMT

Ltn th 12:11 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Sfx// Excellent. India has had some atrocious luck in the series. the y sure deserved the win.

Lndn Frnd 12:11 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
NFP due 12.30 GMT ?

hk mom 12:08 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Another 200 pip/sec night is coming.
trail euro 1.2850. If it rockets, let it fly.

slv sam 12:06 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
anyone have idea why chf is weak today?GT

slv sam 12:05 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 12:03 GMT /
the rest are gamblers!!

Singapore Sfx 12:04 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th - Not a bad win, eh mate ?

Sydney 12:03 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
another hour and a half right

Tallinn viies 12:03 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
hard to believe people dont want to take profits before NFP numbers.
1,29 should cap, at least before numbers are out'
imho

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:59 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
it will be dead for six hour from now
Take a break Guys

Ltn th 11:59 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
TG possibly AMP takeover and others related 9 yds. Look at Euraud. But funds coming from USD as well.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:57 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Cable 1.8491 and 1.8378

slv sam 11:55 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
but watching cad aud and nzd tell me it is going to be NEGATIVE!GT

Surabaya Medallion 11:54 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
You mean 300,000 NFP while Oil is above $50? Lately it doesn't pay to be USD Bull.

slv sam 11:53 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
and...we could see e/$ 1.2980 today and 1.3050 Monday if US data is too negative!

Plovdiv Gotin 11:52 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Or at least 1.2995 if us data--.

Plovdiv Gotin 11:48 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
We cud see 1.2630 still today(E/$) if us data ++.

SanFrancisco TG 11:47 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
AUD has been leading (not always the case so don't use it as a regular indicator) and has eclipsed the upside barrier. This suggests the Euro upside barrier will be eclipsed on NFP. Am I planning to trade on this logic? NO. But it is worth considering.

SanFrancisco TG 11:43 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Near term market is once again long Euros and short $Yen. Hard to imagine a serious run for 2900 prior to data, and 105.90 a real issue for considering BOJ small interaction. Eur breaks uphill on NFP likely $yen some up with it against the grain.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:39 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
i Think if U short euro
keeping over weekend is good idea
I think we'll see 1.2630 next week

Dallas Mauricio 11:34 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Anybody have any Cable Straddle thoughts?

Lndn Frnd 11:33 GMT November 5, 2004
Dallas Mauricio 11:24 GMT November 5,
suggesting to play NFP like that
order to sell at 12920 stop buy at 12945
order to buy at 12810 stop sell at 12765
donot think they erase all positions up and down
any other idea

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:33 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
1.2960 - 1.2832
Eur today for us session

Lndn Frnd 11:33 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Mauricio 11:24 GMT November 5,
suggesting to play NFP like that
order to sell at 12920 stop buy at 12945
order to buy at 12810 stop sell at 12765
donot think they erase all positions up and down
any other idea

KL KL 11:25 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd 1.8441 +8

Dallas Mauricio 11:25 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Good Call KL.

KL KL 11:19 GMT November 5, 2004
short gbpusd at 1.8449

Dallas Mauricio 11:24 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I guess it's time to start discussing how we are going to play the NFP report. Stay out or straddle trade? I am leaning torward staying out myself.

SanFrancisco TG 11:20 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
"SanFrancisco TG 19:04 GMT November 4, 2004
Tomorrow's key levels are very clear. 1.2800, 2850, 2900. My plan is to compare 10yr yield with Euro upon data release. If I see a disconnect prior to/upon release I will treat it as rogue bias."

This has played out nicely. 2850 is a hot spot as noted earlier. As I felt yesterday, I'm having trouble with the idea of 200k NFP. The number needs to be very good or Usd won't have merit to capitalize.

KL KL 11:19 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd at 1.8449

Surabaya Medallion 11:11 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
At 1.2873 It seems people don't care with the NFP anymore. :)

Surabaya Medallion 11:11 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
At 1.2873 It seems people don't with the NFP anymore. :)

Cairo MDR 11:03 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Nov 5 6:00AM German Sept industrial output down adj 1.2 pct from Aug

Gen dk 10:59 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

chicao goofy 10:56 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
NZD might be the indicator for the dollar weakness/strength.

HK [email protected] 10:50 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Short term

One may sight a possibility Eur first to 1.2870 B4 down to1.2830

SanFrancisco TG 10:47 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Valdez - Nothing is in jeapardy until 2780 is seriously threatened. And there is congestion all the way to 2700 as well. Absent that, dips are sweet fruit for longs.

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 10:33 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
new

1.2799 1.2923

1.1811 1.1959


watch

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 10:31 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 22:30 GMT November 4, 2004
may asia range

1.2833 1.2889

1.1854 1.1917

0.7547 0.7593

some work some not....


Cape Town Timmy 10:29 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
cdb

sure

Helsinki CeCom 10:27 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD went briefly through 1,2850 likely to give it another go down to 1,2840 IMHO

slv sam 10:20 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
triple top? ummm...let us see!GT

Dallas GEP 10:18 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
CAD is looking BULLISH here

quito_ecuador_valdez 10:16 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 10:01 GMT November 5, 2004// I've been flat since before the elections thinking "aw, the dollar will retrace pretty soon...think I'll wait til then and long Euro/USD". And it has never retraced. Now it looks again like it will retrace...to maybe 1.27 tops...but I've been wrong some 5 times in 3 weeks...it just keeps longing wanting that 1.30 some kinda bad. What's your take on this..should a position trader like me just say THWI and long the rascal or wait around (again) for a retrace? Everyone else practically is thinking retrace and it has never happened. Vous ja de.

hk ab 10:14 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
10 pips// eur/chf, not eur/usd.
flat on eur.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:14 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
eur..might be building a base here till NY Open

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:13 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
ab
u buying eur/usd here?

hk ab 10:12 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
como//markets is acting nervously as long term-med term took profits on positions takens since this summer/spring on to high yielders

most are done already.

HK [email protected] 10:07 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   

Chirac Says He Is Worried By Dollar Weakness

I can understand Greeny, but the French mind I will never!!!

Because whatever will be the outcome, they will place it on their side, to appear wise and correct.

perrie como 10:06 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
ref eur/chf...this smaller upper correction was due a higher than expected swiss inflation. But the pair is still unresolved as has broken several times the 1.53 levels, which was marking a wider side from past weeks.

guess crosses will follow majors later on, while volatility starts to increse.

markets is acting nervously as long term-med term took profits on positions takens since this summer/spring on to high yielders

SanFrancisco TG 10:01 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Logic dictates the idea of allowing this Euro 2850 +/- area to resolve, pick up Usd headed into the figure, close em, re-enter according to what transpires. Euro is still under pressure so expecting 2850 to give way a little.

Plovdiv Gotin 10:00 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
All smells euro triple top.

hk ab 10:00 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
nt// also, I think eur/chf has made a needed bottom.

perrie como 09:58 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
All smells for a correcton of the US$ (vs. high yielding ccys)
and commodities

PS
think Bush, to develop It's economic plans sefaly, is needing the yuan convertible, which sustains the yen.

hk ab 09:58 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
nt//full meeting today.
almost no breath. Yes, long dlr/jpy easy.

Dallas Mauricio 09:58 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Thank you quito_ecuador_valdez.

quito_ecuador_valdez 09:54 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Flip//love your sence of humor amigo..LOL ...and we're supposed to shake when Chirac speaks, right? hehehehe He's young, he'll get over it.

perrie como 09:52 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Ldn
tks
think more comments to come over the week end of that sort..

reason is simple: no one wants the markets to crash brutally

if the US$ looses more might pose risk of huge sell offs in the bond and stock markets, globally.

KL KL 09:51 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
eurjpy short got taken.-10..maybe stick to my favorite out gbpusd long from 1.8383 1.8412 ...29 -10, +19....still ok flat now

Dublin Flip 09:51 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
So doesn't that also mean Chirac sees future dollar weakness -LOL

quito_ecuador_valdez 09:49 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Yeah GEP, way to go big fella! You are the artist, that's fo sho. :^] You should run a class on this stuff. Seriously!

Dallas GEP 09:49 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Careful KL GBP starting to look short again possibly gtom 8415/20

Ldn 09:47 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Chirac Says He Is Worried By Dollar Weakness

Dallas GEP 09:47 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY has been on the bid

quito_ecuador_valdez 09:46 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Mauricio//I use dailyfx.com for calendars plus a few others, but dailyfx is as far as I've found the best. Here's the link. I try to post the next day's calendar each evening & early each morning (for that day).


5-Nov Friday All times GMT es=estimate pr=previous
Today's worry sheet:

GBP Compny Insolvencies YoY Q3 9:30 pr=-17.4%
GBP Indus Prod MoM SEP 9:30 es=0.2% pr=-0.8
GBP Indu Prod YoY SEP 9:30 es=-0.1% pr=-0.1%
GBP Mfg Prod MoM SEP 9:30 es=0.3% pr=-0.8%
GBP Mfg Prod YoY SEP 9:30 es=0.4% pr=0.4%

EUR ECB's Fazio Speaks 9:30
EUR EZ Retl Trade MoM SEP 10:00 es=0.2% pr=-1.3%
EUR EZ Retl Trade YoY SEP 10:00 es=0.1% pr=-0.4%
EUR EZ OECD Ldng Ind. SEP 11:00 pr=105.9
EUR Germ IndusProd MoM SEP P 11:00 es=0.5% pr=-1.2%
EUR Germ IndusProd YoY SEP P 11:00 es=4.2% pr=3.5%

CAD Unemp Rate OCT 12:00 es=7.1% pr=7.1%
CAD Net Change Emp OCT 12:00 es=29.0k pr=43.2k

GBP NIESR GDP Est OCT 13:30 pr=0.4%

USD Unemp Rate OCT 13:30 es=5.4% pr=5.4%
USD Av Hrly Earnings MoM OCT 13:30 es=0.3% pr=0.2%
USD Av Hrly Earnings YoY OCT 13:30 pr=2.4%
USD Change Nonfarm Pyrols OCT 13:30 es=175k pr=96k
USD Change Manufact Pyrols OCT 13:30 es=5k pr=-18k

USD Av Wkly Hrs OCT 13:30 es=33.8 pr=33.8
USD Fed Bies Speak: Financial Supervision 16:45
USD Consumr Credit SEP 20:00 es=$7.5Bln pr=-$1.4Bln


JHB CDB 09:44 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Timmy

Do you mind if we trade personal notes via e-mail, as I am also a newbie?

Dallas GEP 09:43 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
THX Como. Have order to shor AUSSIE now @ 7590

perrie como 09:42 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Usd if at 1.2820/30 will be still in It's normal trading range.

Dallas Mauricio 09:42 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
WTG GEP!

Cape Town Timmy 09:41 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
intraday

perrie como 09:40 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Gep
compliments
superb timing

think swaps needing liquidity placed abroad to compensate interest rate diffs.

same might happen later on to cad, eur
maybe they will let some more time for aud (better premia, but not sure)

Dallas GEP 09:37 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
CLOSED gbp @ 1.8390 +40 IN on eur/gbp shorts at 6987

Dallas Mauricio 09:37 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Please let me know of a site where I can get a good UK economic calender. TIA

KL KL 09:36 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
ha ha caught some gbpusd rain drops....short 1.8222 out 1.8383 SAR & long here not sure why the sudden drop. Take now think later +39-20 = +19...hope you are out GEP

Cairo MDR 09:36 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Nov 5 4:30AM *UK SEPT MANUFACTURING OUTPUT UP 0.1 PCT FROM AUG; UP 0.3 PCT YR-ON-YR

Nov 5 4:30AM *UK SEPT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DOWN 0.4 PCT FROM AUG; 0.9 PCT LOWER YR-ON-YR

Nov 5 4:30AM *UK Q3 GDP MAY BE 0.05 PCT BELOW INITIAL ESTIMATE AFTER SEPT INDUSTRIAL DATA

thats why cable is due south for a short while

Chicago Goofy 09:35 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Short Eur/GBP here

JHB CDB 09:34 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Good trades & good luck

Are going Intra-day trading or position trading?

Dallas Mauricio 09:34 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
What just happened with Cable?

Cape Town Timmy 09:27 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
JHB CDB

I trade mostly indices and commodities, just starting currencies. i wanna see if i can apply the same strategies here, wish me luck!

perrie como 09:21 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Yuan Surges Against Dollar on Speculation China May Be Preparing to Loosen Currency Controls

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041105/china_currency_2.html

----

KL KL 09:21 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
hai ya aussie got me too ... licking -20 pip wounds

Dallas Mauricio 09:20 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Good Day Everyone & Good Luck.

JHB CDB 09:16 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Cape Town Timmy

Hi Timmy, nice to see someone local, what sort of a trader are you?

Cairo MDR 09:04 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Cape Town Timmy 08:44 GMT November 5, 2004
heared they have a good tradin system, but i never tried it, so if u decide to try it can u please keep me updated because i never trust any of those systems...and i would like if they change that idea for me

TIA

KL KL 09:04 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
short eurjpy 136.54...seems like euro weakening at my desired pace

Dallas GEP 09:04 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Jim, I never sleep!!! LOL

KL KL 09:01 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
short audusd .7566...this one for longer term play in my time frame....30 mins...LOL

Bruxville Jim 09:01 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP, are you STILL awake or ALREADY awake?:)
Got waken up by DB alarms?

PAR 08:58 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Again looks like UK industrial and manufacturing data will beat all expectations . That should prevent GBP from going below 1.8400 and EURGBP above 7000. Dta due in 30 min.

KL KL 08:55 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Well that short gbpusd sl of mine got taken....sheeeze!!

Dallas GEP 08:52 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I had order waiting but YES I am very quick LOL

hong kong nt 08:51 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
AB -- guess we're in the same boat now, hold long usd/jpy at 105.8..

KL KL 08:49 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP,,,you quick draw mcgraw?...LOL...it flash less than 1 sec...GT

Dallas GEP 08:46 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
SHort now 8430 on GBP

Cape Town Timmy 08:44 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
hello there, does anyone out here use taps(trade alert system)? if so, is it any good?

Cape Town Timmy 08:44 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
hello there, does anyone out here use taps(trade alert system)? if so, is it any good?

KL KL 08:43 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP...I cannot wait not crossing THE line....for some time...time for quick scalp

KL KL 08:42 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8424

Dallas GEP 08:41 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
KL getting short ter, signal to SELL gbp @ 8430

perrie como 08:41 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Fot the coming period to year end, I do have some forecated
flows from Aseans:

In order of interest related to indexing of yuan swaps (1mth delivery):

To buy from the previously held higher yielding currencies that are near to top volatility: (main holding in order of vola Aud, Gbp, Cad, Eur)

1. US$
2. Swiss Franc
3. S. African Rand
4. Japanese Yen


g/l

KL KL 08:35 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd 1.8725 +16.... ye har

Dallas GEP 08:34 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Majke that 6987

Dallas GEP 08:26 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
OK guys, EUR/GBP 7000 level still said to be VERY heavily defended will short as cloae to there as market will allow Order is waiting @ 6989

Cairo MDR 08:24 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
According to s*a*x*o*b*a*n*k:

Today's payrolls data are the obvious event risk of the moment. One of the leading indicators we use to make a guess (never better than a guess!) at how the payrolls data will turn out is the monthly Monster Employment Index the - which showed no change from the previous month. If this number has any correlation with the payrolls data (and we feel it often does), then we would seem to have high odds of a worse number than the 175K expected. The 4-week moving average for the weekly initial jobless claims has ticked down since the hurricane induced problems in September, but is still higher than it was for much of the summer.

The payrolls data will certainly be the day's main focus - here are a few ways this may play out...

Negative data (< +150K). On negative data, one would expected EUR/USD to immediately rush higher to new levels - even if the market gets choppy on profit-taking before the weekend.
As expected data (between 150k and 190K) - EUR/USD might sell off initially, but then could regain its feet and close essentially unchanged
Better than expected (over +190K) - EUR/USD drops to 1.2750 immediately and drops a bit further next week, but gains support above 1.2600

perrie como 08:20 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
http://www.worldscibooks.com/economics/5594.html

CHINESE YUAN (RENMINBI) DERIVATIVE PRODUCTS

by Peter G Zhang (Chief Financial Engineering Advisor and Senior Director of Research & Development Center, Shanghai Futures Exchange, China)

With the CNY revaluation perspectives, hundreds of billions of US dollars have been invested in various types of CNY-related derivative products. As a derivatives specialist with more than ten years' experience in the international financial market and with a working experience in China in the past few years, the author offers a volume on trading and other practical issues of CNY- related derivative products in the offshore marketplace.

chicago goofy 08:19 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the reply, Helsinki.
get a feeling euro bull train is almost there. At least we are hard to see it traded above 1.30 imho..

PAR 08:13 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Amazing Euro holding so well while only Europ does is missing targets. Majority of countries miss budget deficit stability target. ECB misses both inflation and monetary growth target. European commission misses Lisabon target. Why bother to have targets if nobody cares. What also surprises me is that majority of banks are predicting very high non farm figures and that on those forecasts the dollar goes down. Strange ?

KL KL 08:10 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
ok eurusd short earier at 1.2882 locking in +2 pips sl 1.2880....oh why bother out 1.8265 +17. Long gbpusd 1.8409 ...my favorite pair now

Helsinki iw 08:05 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Goofy, it has traded from the lower bollinger to the upper one, and is climbing along it - often a sign of continuation. Also it has broken itīs pre-election range.

perrie como 07:59 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
USDJPY

The dollar continues to test the downside of its recent range against the Japanese yen. China reported overnight that they are on course to move towards a more flexible currency regime. This is no surprise as they have previously acknowledged this intention. The real wild card is timing though - whether they plan on increasing flexibility over the next year or next 5 years. One year NDF forwards have widened significantly over the news, as the markets hope for any sort of revaluation by the Chinese government. A revaluation of the Yuan would be positive for the Japanese yen, since Japan vigorously competes with China on exports. We continue to warn of the increased risk of intervention efforts by the Japanese government at current levels. With the election results a concern of the past, the Ministry of Finance may step in to curb yen gains.
fm yahoofxcm

Chicago Goofy 07:57 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw 07:52 GMT November 5, 2004
May I know where you find out the 4hr chart is constructive for euro?? MACD?Stochastic? TIA

Helsinki iw 07:52 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
The dollar looks very offered to me in light of what other markets are doing. Also the 4h chart looks very constructive for further euro gains. USD/JPY also softish. Wouldnīt be surprised now to see a test of the top. IMHO

Bruxville Jim 07:48 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
JMI// I mean, it's certainly not down YET...

Chicago JMI 07:33 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 07:27 GMT November 5, 2004
People said the same thing about euro on Feb 18.

Bruxville Jim 07:27 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 07:01 GMT//
EUR hanging all night within 50 pips of its all time high - you call it "EUR down"??? LOL

SF MRZ 07:04 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
will sell Eur/$ after a nap and then some more if spikes. Expect volume to pick up in about 3 hours.

Ldn 07:01 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD down as speculators pare some of their massive long positions ahead of U.S. payrolls data, defense of options barriers at 1.2900 kick in says Japan brokerage trader

Juneau CAR 06:48 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I am betting on hk mom's theory-lol.

Melbourne Qindex 06:45 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Helsinki CeCom 06:30 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
I think todays number has to be very weak to encourage another EUR rally, I agree that in the slightly longer term the USD has to go down. But many "players" did miss the EUR/USD bulltrain after/during the election and wont buy at theses levels. So a downward trip should be very healthy.

Melbourne Qindex 06:01 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hk mom 05:31 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
bc// oil down euro up. your view appreciated.

Ldn 05:29 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
The dollar is likely to rebound against the yen, after having fallen on U.S. election jitters, because the U.S. economy is stronger than those of Japan and Europe longer term, Haruhiko Kuroda, a former top Japanese Finance Ministry official, said Friday.

Syd 05:13 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Australian housing-finance approvals likely fell in September, median expectation is for 1% on-month fall in owner-occupied finance, after 0.4% rise in August. clear evidence that housing is slowing down - of which housing finance is a part - together with more moderate growth elsewhere, will mean the RBA remains on hold
censored. Data due Wednesday

KL KL 05:09 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
if jobs data is good then everyone will turn eyes to euro and say..."so what is happening with YOUR economy?? Is your euro strong dollar policy good?? My pediction 157,000K but September revision up 58K...now that will sure suit my trading. I feel euro have gone up too far too fast...imho

Kamensk Andy 04:59 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne farmacia - good afternoon... Imho cable has a potential to overcome 1.85 today...but eur/gbp only stopper..

Syd 04:56 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD subdued as trading slows up for week all eyes are on U.S. payrolls; is risk of strong number which could see USD shorts unwound. Metal prices no longer strong support for AUD - if reversal comes it may be sharp
Craig Ferguson
Senior currency strategist ANZ

orlando jcr 04:54 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
ab,

I had done the same.
Got out at 106.09 as I don't see much moment.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd rather be out right now than upside down.

Melbourne Qindex 04:52 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Syd 04:45 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
FX market short USD so good October U.S. jobs number could hit NZD, other currencies hard, says NZ trader; NZD/USD now 0.6907, middle of day's 0.6902-0.6915 range.

melbourne farmacia 04:38 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
LA Fxnew - Possible spread post NFP

1.8582 / 1.8554 / 1.8520 - ( 1.8440 )
1.8397 / 1.8322 / 1.8287

hk ab 04:34 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
the t/p is quiet at the moment.

orlando jcr 04:31 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
ab,

where is your tp for your "quiet buy"...??

hk ab 04:20 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
long dlr/jpy 106......quietly.

hk ab 04:12 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Where're the voices from euro bull?....

LA Fxnew 04:01 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
anyone predict what will the outcome of cable after NPF?

?

Melbourne Qindex 03:59 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hk ab 03:51 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Revdax// any interest in gbp?

HK REVDAX 03:35 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
CYCLE ANALYSIS

Tomorrow's Special (Nov 5)
====================
Tomorrow (nov 5)... exactly...sell Euro/$. This sell
Euro/$ signal will take either one of the following
forms:
(1)Euro/$ will go up into the time window of Nov 5 and
reverse down on the same day....OR
(2)Euro/$ will go up into Nov 5 and stay high at
close...then gap down next Monday morning in Asia
session.

Either (1) or (2) will mark 'a' cycle top of Euro/$.

hk mom 03:30 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
My son is very thrilled now.

hk mom 03:29 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Let's welcome 1.2930.
A spike could be seen and if no one is blocking at 1.2930, expect a lot of stop limits hit and send the euro to 1.3xxx region.

hk ab 03:25 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
[email protected]//That's why I have the " ".....

HK [email protected] 03:05 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Syd 02:58 GMT November 5, 2004

The censored is c,m,s with no commas.
If this will not work I will post the whole article on help foeum

HK [email protected] 03:00 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 02:54 GMT November 5

The definition of fiat money is money that can't be exch. with things you think they are of value.
Meanwhile $$$ can even buy gold, so it is not yet a fiat.

See webster Dictio.
Main Entry: fiat money
Function: noun
: money (as paper currency) not convertible into coin or specie of equivalent value

Syd 02:58 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] what is the censored in the link

hk ab 02:54 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
If US keeps printing the "fiat money" and hiking the rates, what could be the resulted outcome?

HK [email protected] 02:53 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
In short; If there are no gold_takers in the physical market, expect producers and bullion banks, to be out there to lock in some unrealistic dream profits.

Syd 02:39 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab hi , talk some are looking for the top around 133 Euro so would imagine its more the level , and who will pull the trigger first - due to it not being such a great year I wouldnt think they would like to miss the juicy profits they are holding cos as we all know until cashed can disappear in a flash

HK [email protected] 02:29 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Syd 02:14 GMT November 5, 2004

http://news.ft.com/censored/s/63add62c-2e51-11d9-a86b-00000e2511c8.html

"Traders said most of the interest in gold was through the futures market rather than through the physical buying of the metal. The December Comex gold contract peaked at $434 a troy ounce in New York."

I prefer to add that to a possible personal tech. outlook.

In total I am out now waiting to buy on good Tech outlook.
As one says.."The market is always around".



KL KL 02:26 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Right back again lets see some house keeping:

Ltn th 21:55 GMT November 4, 2004
KL. Can you comment on current feeling to Malaysias peg?

Ringgit will continue to be PEG to make people suffer while the corrupted racist Malay & cronies enjoy the fruits of your hard labour. No difference to China..the problem in M'sia is that the majority are LAZY (sorry to those hard working minority) and not competitive. Just watch China for moves in Ringgit....little choice but continue devaluation even though many are cronies are harping and crowing that it is under value now. I would be reducing my ringgit holding given the opportunity and putting it in carry trade currency...aud, gbp, cad. It could be peg to 4.8 or more if Malaysia not competitive to China....also I think severe recession is coming due to oil...time will tell. Protect yourself now

JHB JW
Which trading platform do you use, GL,GT
...all 4 on the left of this screen by year end!!

ny amc 21:39 GMT November 4, 2004
KL.....you always seem to start the day off profitable. Good for you.

This is a game of psychology...1 pip gain to start the day is good...like breathing fresh air. if -1 pip losss like breathing 2nd hand smoke!! LOL

Ok now for latest trade short 1.8452 out 1.8436 +12.
Looks like oil drop is helping USD...imho Payroll can really put spanner in the works and to all dollar bull or bear. Trading very short term time frame now. Cannot wait for tonight data ... have been like this for the whole year...one day the music will stop surely!!!

Right now eur seems nice level to knock it down!! short eurusd 1.2882

hk ab 02:15 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Syd when will the Xmas bell rings then? your though appreciated.

Syd 02:14 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] think a lot of the big funds squeezing the last drop of blood before they close out their positions for XMAS .

HK [email protected] 02:11 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Syd 00:30 GMT November 5, 2004

If I combine the news that most of the interest in gold comes from the futures, but not in the physical+another possible drop in oil price+heavily dollar shorted market...That means the gold cartel is just waiting Yumy_Yum, as they can print lot of fiat_gold on request.

Halifax CB 02:05 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi; - well, we're back into it after only suffering 2nd degree burns from the recent USDCAD sell-off :). looks like a pretty weak post-trauma oscillation between 1.2035 and 1.21. More interesting is that USDCAD usually put up a stiffer fight after such a pillaging, but right now it seems rather meek & subdued. Shades of a further drop to 1.17? I think the last target called for after 1.217 was in the 1.19 range, and then 1.17, I'll have to check back. Anyway, looking for shorts in the 1.209 region, but taking it easy. We're still limping.....

wisconsin tim 01:54 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Projections for 11/5/2004
Date Currency Close R1 Close S1
11/4/2004 AUDUSD 0.7631 0.7542
11/4/2004 EURGBP 0.7004 0.6964
11/4/2004 EURUSD 1.2963 1.2834
11/4/2004 EURYEN 137.20 136.12
11/4/2004 GBPUSD 1.8525 1.8385
11/4/2004 GBPYEN 196.21 194.98
11/4/2004 NDZUSD 0.6948 0.6880
11/4/2004 USDCAD 1.2102 1.1956
11/4/2004 USDCHF 1.1919 1.1766
11/4/2004 USDYEN 106.36 105.57

Syd 01:34 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF Historical Lows Being Tested

Illinois DB 01:31 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Raton & farmacia, those both made my day.

Illinois DB 01:29 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
7! :)

NewYork frankie 01:20 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
yo. I gave Dubya 2 brains, still couldn't make 2nd grade!

hk ab 01:18 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, I concur that we should not touch the eur bull train.

Sydney 01:15 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Boca Raton thanks I needed that, really funny especially when you get him moving the moves to the music

melbourne farmacia 01:15 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Try this:
http://www.imgag.com/product/full/ap/3067907/graphic1.swf

NewYork frankie 01:09 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Haven't laughed so much all day.

Boca Raton 01:02 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
http://www.dancingbush.com

GO BUSH!

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:41 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   

5-Nov Friday All times GMT es=estimate pr=previous
Today's worry sheet:
JPY Hsehld Spndng YoY SEP 5:00 es=0.7% pr=0.6%
JPY Overall Hsehld Spndng MoMSEP 5:00 es=0.1% pr=2.8%
JPY Ldng Econ Indx SEP P 5:00 es=30.0% pr=65.0%
JPY Coincidnt Indx SEP P 5:00 es=33.3% pr=35.0%

EUR Fr C.B.Govt.Blnce €s SEP 7:45 pr=-58.0B

GBP Compny Insolvencies YoY Q3 9:30 pr=-17.4%
GBP Indus Prod MoM SEP 9:30 es=0.2% pr=-0.8
GBP Indus Prod YoY SEP 9:30 es=-0.1% pr=-0.1%
GBP Mfg Prod MoM SEP 9:30 es=0.3% pr=-0.8%
GBP Mfg Prod YoY SEP 9:30 es=0.4% pr=0.4%

EUR ECB's Fazio Speaks 9:30
EUR EZ Retl Trade MoM SEP 10:00 es=0.2% pr=-1.3%
EUR EZ Retl Trade YoY SEP 10:00 es=0.1% pr=-0.4%
EUR EZ OECD Ldng Ind. SEP 11:00 pr=105.9
EUR Germ IndusProd MoM SEP P 11:00 es=0.5% pr=-1.2%
EUR Germ IndusProd YoY SEP P 11:00 es=4.2% pr=3.5%

CAD Unemp Rate OCT 12:00 es=7.1% pr=7.1%
CAD Net Change Emp OCT 12:00 es=29.0k pr=43.2k

GBP NIESR GDP Est OCT 13:30 pr=0.4%

USD Unemp Rate OCT 13:30 es=5.4% pr=5.4%
USD Av Hrly Earnings MoM OCT 13:30 es=0.3% pr=0.2%
USD Av Hrly Earnings YoY OCT 13:30 pr=2.4%
USD Nonfarm Pyrols OCT 13:30 es=175k pr=96k
USD Manufact Pyrols OCT 13:30 es=5k pr=-18k
USD Av Wkly Hrs OCT 13:30 es=33.8 pr=33.8

USD Fed Bies Speak: Financial Supervision 16:45
USD Consumr Credit SEP 20:00 es=$7.5Bln pr=-$1.4Bln


houston st 00:30 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   

GEP -- I've switched timeframes as well...primarily watching the flow....are you using any particular indicators? tia & good trades.

Syd 00:30 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
The metal needs to close convincingly above $430.50 in the immediate future, otherwise many existing longs will look to liquidate, suggesting a re-test of somewhere between $420 and $417.50 ScotiaMocatta says in technical commentary

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:23 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP, you are the forum's wizzard on pip raiding. Hats off! I've tried all day and lost as much as I won yesterday. You are something else..impressive.

Dallas GEP 00:19 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
Well I posted yesterday that a change in trading strategy was neccessary at least in my own case because longer term charts were NOT working well. So I have started using 5 and 15 minute timeframes with quick INS and OUTS and so far today that has produced +77 pips.

I have always been a critic of using that short a timeframe but it is worth I try guys I think.

See you LONDON

hk mom 00:02 GMT November 5, 2004 Reply   
move euro close to 1.2925 now.
almost hit my 1.29 order.

 




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Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

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