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Forex Forum Archive for 11/07/2004

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Syd 23:56 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
Australia's Costello Media Conference Topic Unknown 01.00gmt

Ldn 23:49 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
Chicago JMI obviously going to overshoot , but many unwilling to get onboard a train in fear of sharp reversal from this high level only if you have money to burn , at these levels Las Vegas style

Chicago JMI 23:43 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 23:37 GMT November 7, 2004
Sounds like some stops need to be taken out before it goes any higher.

Ldn 23:37 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
USD Shorts Extend With USD Losses 05-Nov-04 19:02 EST PDF Aud are at their second most extreme levels ever.

Hong Kong Qindex 23:29 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

KL KL 22:59 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
ok out gbpusd short 1.8558 with inflationary +3 pip gain ..will reshort higer...not sure how high but 1.86 area would be very tempting ....but I doubt will reach there. The KO option is very well defended there...big boys option!! so sdetting a few traps from 8583 88 98

perrie como 22:43 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd might set back to 1.2920 before to show up if there's still strenght for higher on an intraday basis.


perrie como 22:20 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
not sure but still thinking the yen much stronger this week

last week had 104.5 as a target but shd be even lower....103/102.5

strange market this one...

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 22:16 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
should be interesting this week. gl everyone and play safe.

my long eurusd on 12th - shall post for what target later in the week. For now, am neutral.


Ldn 22:16 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
Just when you thought it was safe to own the dollar's gotten even more dangerous.
It didn't take long Friday for the currency market to completely downplay reports of October's stunning jump in U.S. payrolls - the largest in seven months - and turn its attention back to beating the buck back down with every bit of strength it could muster.
That helped the euro to its highest level ever seen in its brief lifetime, the yen to a fresh six-month high, the Canadian dollar to a 12-year high and the Swiss franc to an 8-year high. With few exceptions, there is no love for the dollar these days among investors. The biggest reason is the current account deficit: the U.S. is simply buying so much from overseas, and depending so heavily on foreigners to send the money back in the form of investments, that the dollar has to adjust lower. But there are other factors at play. The election of President George W. Bush suggests another four years of what's largely seen as tolerance for a weaker dollar, since it favors U.S. manufacturers. European officials too haven't put up much of a verbal fight against the euro's rise. Though Japan's officials have started to talk the yen down, a revaluation of China's currency, the yuan, seems to be growing more imminent. That's seen as something that would convince other Asian governments to allow their currencies to appreciate versus the dollar. At the same time, though the Federal Reserve is broadly expected to raise interest rates when it meets next Wednesday, whether it continues in December is in more doubt. Higher interest rates theoretically should help the dollar. Facing such grim odds, the euro jumped above $1.2925 Friday, pushing to a new all-time high of $1.2967 before backing down slightly to it's late-day level near $1.2965. That's a powerful signal, since being at that level at the end of active North American trading suggests there is momentum in the market that is sending dollar-bearish signals to investors. "Massive buyers of the euro seem to keep coming out of the woodwork," said John McCarthy, director of foreign exchange at ING Barings Capital Markets in New York. "People are basically seeing that there is little case to be made for buying dollars at this point." That's not to say the situation isn't susceptible to change. Indeed, some of the most blatant signs that a trend in financial markets has gotten stale is when everybody is following it. At some point, the dollar's decline could hit the point of exhaustion or even turn around, particularly if the economic data continues to improve. The October nonfarm payrolls growth, which at 337,000 was the best in seven months, could have been the first step in such a move. "The market still seems to be a little obsessed with the current account and what will probably be more benign neglect of the dollar by a second Bush Administration," said Jeremy Fand, director of foreign exchange at WestLB in New York.

But it's not completely improbable that a shift toward "stronger employment growth, renewed expectation for more rate hikes from the Fed, and falling oil prices could turn out to be a potent elixir for dollar strength," said Fand.
On that front, some new information may emerge following the Fed's meeting Wednesday. Though the Fed is largely expected to raise its short-term benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 2%. But the Fed's statement after the hike is likely to be parsed by investors who hope to find any hidden messages about whether or not the Fed might raise rates in December. A survey of major bond dealers Friday found that ten out of 20 surveyed belief the Fed will raise rates in December, after HSBC and Deutsche Bank shifted their views Friday. Reuters.

Philadelphia Caba 21:34 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
on Friday 1.5350 hold, waiting for 1.5250 & 1.5235 break.

GER ad 21:03 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 20:59,
If not masochist, than brave.

Philadelphia Caba 20:59 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
GER ad 20:57 GMT November 7, 2004
Philadelphia Caba 20:44 ,



GER ad 20:57 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 20:44 ,


Odessa GM 20:48 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
Good evening! EUR - 1.2975, high - 1.2995, low 1.2961

Syd 20:47 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
NEW YORK (AP)--Palestinian Foreign Minister Nabil Shaath said in a television interview Sunday that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat was in a coma

Philadelphia Caba 20:44 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
Sold EUR/CHF @1.5262 and USD/CHF @1.1762

Rivonia PipPirate 20:05 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
quit_ecuador_valdez 14:29 GMT:
Well since GBP has the handle "cable" from being the ccy traded via undersea cable, hows about calling the Euro "microwave", as it is how todays trading is beamed thru the skies, unt off coarse 'lil guys like you are forever waveing tiny flags at the Euro bull(/bear). JAT

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:45 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
bought USD/CHF

MEDAN FATGUY 19:28 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
U bought usd/chf or sold usd/chf?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:21 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
Just Bought Chf

houston st 19:16 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   

fyi, $yen @ 105.37/43...good trades this week.

Philadelphia Caba 19:15 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
Good afternoon everyone!
Just left sell order EUR/CHF @ 1.5280, s/l 1.5340, first tp 1.5210

Philadelphia Caba 19:05 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
empoli (italy) ab 18:10 GMT November 7, 2004
any info abt eurusd opening levels pls? i saw on tv 1,2997 eurusd cud be it true or is it just a not updated rate ? thks in advance

on my platform high 1.2973

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:27 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
Hello all...
Tokyo what do U think the short level for for the nikkie?

empoli (italy) ab 18:10 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
any info abt eurusd opening levels pls? i saw on tv 1,2997 eurusd cud be it true or is it just a not updated rate ? thks in advance

monaco perry 18:09 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   

Stockholm AGuy 17:31 GMT November 7, 2004
hOW about "tyranasaurus rex?".....because it will be extinct in 5 years.....

Scarborough TG 17:53 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
Don't see Canadian Government raising rates until the new year, with the height of its currency. Do see U.S. Fed tightening this week and in December, this would cool off the Canadian Dollar and would allow for Canada to raise rates. Bond markets speaking to me.

Stockholm AGuy 17:31 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:29 GMT:

How about "velociraptor"? :-)

Tokyo IM 15:05 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:37 GMT November 7, 2004 // I would be glad if you would visit here(Japan). Country is getting modernized and you might like it. Trains suck as they always did (crouded). Food is one of th ebest in the world and having fun here is safe and high probability of getting home with no surprises. I am sure you will like it after 30 years of not visiting here. GT

Hong Kong Qindex 14:58 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:37 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
IM// I remeber in 1967, Yokuska (spelling?)..evac hospital. serveng Vietnam's wounded..recovered to enjoy 2 1/2 weeks of free tours in Japan...we went all over the first hot saki & sushi..been addicted ever since. Was invited to come back after the war by an university there..made a big mistake and didn't. In those two weeks I was "adopted" by a wonderful Japanese family, I learned the train system (incredible!), part of the customs and heritige..incredible culture and country. Hats off to you who have made something great. I miss it. I would love to visit now to see all the changes in 30 years but what I saw was a paradise beyond description. GT amigo.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:29 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
IM, just got back from breakfast, thank you for your valued opinions.

GEP//could we call the E/$ "the carnivore" for the time being? Certain people got irritated I was calling it "rogue" so I won't. LOL

Dallas GEP 14:23 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
Guys my opinion is play the less rangey pairs like usd/jpy, eur/gbp, eur/chf etc. The market will absolutely EAT up those 30-50 pip stops on MOST of the USD based majors this week.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:08 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Tokyo IM 14:07 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
MY 2 cents worth the opinion and local rumors:

As far as avereg Japanese thinking they welcome cheaper dollar and due to a more stable jobs for now it may invite more people buying more US$ and also go to US to spend more money which in turn can help US economy and more things that we can easily predict. Also online shopping sites from US can see more Japanese spending their cache on more products due to a stronger Yen right now and in reverse provide more strength to US$.

As far as I think about intervention of BOJ - MOF I think they are already in play but just trying to stabilize downtrend for the $/Yen pair. As far as I am aware of BOJ have more problems inside of the country and that they can not organize too much funds for intervention. Spending of Japanese goverment gets lots of critisism from general public but does not seem to affect much so far.

I am sure that Yen is in a wrong position right now and need a good retracement (300 - 500 pips) which may happen as soon as next week and I will welcome it.

China can be one of the factors that puts some FUD into many traders and they may not be as optimistic as they could.

I think Cable is way behind some major pairs in the area of progress to the higher position and that could explain some desent range of 250 pips on Friday.

My 2 cents

San Diego DC 14:02 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez :
It is based on technical indicator called donchian channel. I am personally not a forecaster but a trader. I have noticed this market behavior in the past with the donchian channels. I use multiple donchian channels with varying time periods from 3, 9 , 19, 45, 90 and 180.
Even though every moment in the market is unique, since we trade based on high probability moves, this could be one if and when there is a short set up for the retracement.

Sydney Alimin 14:00 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
hmm is this true? my platform gives a price of 1.2995 bid and 1.2998 ask for euro and eur/gbp shows 0.7003 bid and 0.7006 ask

it is closed at the moment though, does that mean we are gonna see gap when it opens?

Halifax CB 13:58 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
For those others who are interested in the mathematics of finance, this link contains a significant number of Benoit Mandlebrot's work in finance, as well as other writings. I personally wasn't aware of his long term interest in this until I read his recent book Misbehavior of Markets" ; my knowlege of fractals was limited to fluid dynamics and art. The book itself is a good intro (no math) to the ideas, especially w/r to managing risk; the first link contains most of the relevan papers, although the organization is somewhat haphazard (even chaotic perhaps... :). But worth working at.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:42 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
San Diego//your 2 cents worth could be worth 2 million if you're right. Is this your hunch or do you have some data to add sir.

Halifax CB 13:38 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
hi sgp - agreed, but in this case i think it's an issue of not valuing what you haven't worked for :)

San Diego DC 13:35 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
EUR direction for Sunday-Monday (11/08):
It appears from the chart that even though the uptrend is very much in tact a pull back to 1.2757 area is likely before resuming the uptrend. Just my 2 cents.

sgp cc 13:33 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 12:48 - I was just teasing JP. However more often than not, you get what you pay for....

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:30 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
Tks IM. What sir is your take on Japan's feelings about China and their RMB?

Also, what is the local buzz about what BOJ's threshold for USD devaluation? Is it 1.32 similar to ECB?

What is your gut feeling about intervention with USD? Can we see E/$ 1.35 or above?

Does the average Japanese trader feel intervention is even necessary or do you guys feel things will just handle itself, US will export well, pay trade deficit and part of spending deficit and then be healthy enough to revaluage the USD?

A lot of us would appreciate your thoughts my friend.

Haifa ac 13:28 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:05 // LOL Tell it to the bonds and Eurodollar traders-- major devastation in the latter.
Some markets WANT to pay attention to news and some don't. Market does what it WANTS TO DO! to PUNISH MOST WRONG PLAYERS!

Tokyo IM 13:20 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:05 GMT November 7, 2004 // Well said and good points metiond.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:19 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 01:15 GMT November 7, 2004
I agree the Chinese will slowly unpeg the RMB (Yuan) to the USD. Why? 2nd Q of 2005 will see a trend change in USD..revaluation starts from all time lows. If the USD gets more expensive obviously the Chinese would WANT to unpeg to it and peg to a "basket" of currencies which plain and simple spell out stability. When the USD revaluates to say 1.15 or 1.10 to prove it's worth, China will have begun the unpegging process but not before. China knows well what is good for China.

Eventually the Chinese will float their RMB but that would be a long long process as a soaring Chinese economy with all the gold backing their CB has and other currencies as well as a base, the RMB will be an "in demand" currency in years to come..exactly what the Chinese don't want lest it become the new CHF and ruin their export advantage. China will for many years be a manufacturer and exporter, count on it.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:12 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:05 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
Just working research a bit before the family wakes up and we go for a romp out at the farm.

Last Friday's E/$ "dipsey doodle" typifies US econ releases lately..non event, other than an hour's worth of fun..then the chart simply resumes what it was doing before the event. Proof: draw a stright horizontal line from the last candle on the 5 min-12 hour E/$ chart before Friday's NFP dip to the other side of the dip where it recouped an hour or so later, it lands squarely on what the chart would have done without the dip. This proves essentially US data was a not event other than the 150 pip unpredictable dipsey doodle. What's that tell you? It should say that:
1. money people still don't have faith the US can balance their deficits in the face of good econ news. Look at the post below...record longs for Euro are in place.
2. Reactionary knee jerk forces in a still thinnish mkt to positive US data did control the mkt a bit by dipping the chart some 150 pips but had no support from big the chart resumed it's exact previous flightpath upward.

Why? Good solid US econ data has to be seen for months, not weeks, to convince the world the USA is really truly recovering & USD is again a good hedge or safehouse. Right now it's simply not and the world prefers Euros, Au or CHF. that will change next year about 2nd Q but for now, USD is a short.

The majority of emails I've gotten since Friday have read the same ways, here they are in the order in which I rate them:
1. I shorted Friday, lost. I should have longed at 1.29 like you did and I'd be 60+ pips to the better.
2. I lost a large amount of my account due to the short I placed and the fact "XYZ platform" didn't honor my order.
3. I played the economic news release and lost.

OK y'all, what's all that boil down to?
1. Don't play newsevents..they are turbulent, you KNOW the platfroms will gap, they will screw you, your intended plan even tho it's a good one can't play out for those two reasons. So why mess with trading a news event?
2. Lately US data hasn't affected the USD...non events...USD is heading on a path that won't be interrupted 'til 1.32 which is the admitted pain threshold of the ECB. BOJ isn't messing with things either until 1.32 or higher will be seen. Some say 1.35..but that's more speculative than predcition.
3. Long E/$. Just long it & hold. If it retraces it can't retrace more than 1.250-1.260 which is the mother support line drawn from high in early 02. And the mother support line is going higher each day. Pretty soon the mother support will be at 1.27. Then 1.28. Don't sucker with this junk you hear about retracing to 1.22 or 1.23..that speculation was weeks ago & did it ever happen? Of couse not.

The more a chart approaches a major trend change the more turbulent and unpredictable things get and the thinner the market gets..feeding the turbulant fire. We're not talking predictable nice wave like profit making turbulance, we're talking erratic account eating stop stripping turbulance. What mega trend change? Eventually the USD will HAVE to revaluate..retrace all the way back to 2002. That happening it will likely start the up path relative to its crosses either end of 1st Q 05 or in 2nd Q 05. That being the case look for a lot of chop between now and then. You can peg fundamentals to this if you like, or technicals..either way it will happen to complete the last cycle and start the new cycle.

Halifax CB 12:48 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
sgp cc; I don't post on the other side>>> but the victoria class submarines (formerly upholder class) are - or at least were - excellent machines (quiet, fast, & relatively long range for d/e's); the current problems are the result of Cdn political mismanagement more than anything else. They were also, in real terms, free. if you want I can take this over to the political forum, where it's more appropriate.

Hong Kong Qindex 12:21 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 12:19 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
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Ldn 11:16 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
IMM speculators push net euro longs to record high
Fri Nov 5, 2004 04:36 PM ET
NEW YORK, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Currency speculators on the Chicago futures market increased their net long euro positions in the week ended Nov. 2 to a record high, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.
'Long' positions are de facto bets a specific currency will strengthen, while 'short' positions are effectively bets it will weaken.
According to the Reuters data, euro futures speculators increased their net long position to 53,465 contracts, the highest on record, from 45,531 contracts the previous week.

"I guess this shows that the specs are putting their money where their mouth is," said Sean Callow, currency strategist at IDEAglobal in New York.

"They were very loaded up for further dollar weakness. By the time the (jobs) numbers came out, they were sitting on some very fat profits, which will come in handy after two quarters of range trading."

On Friday, the euro surged to a record high against the dollar at $1.2968 (EUR=: Quote, Profile, Research) , according to Reuters data, driven by technical buying, despite a surprisingly robust U.S. employment report for October.

While net long euro positions looked extremely stretched, Callow said a currency investor would have to very brave to fight the euro's rising trend versus the dollar, especially after Friday's price action.

"If a strong payrolls doesn't help the dollar, I don't think anything would. I think a lot of people would be just throwing in the towel," he added.

Yen futures speculators built net long positions to 36,814 contracts from net longs of 27,636 contracts. This was the highest net long position since February 2004.

YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)

11/02/04 week 10/26/04 week

Long 46,779 41,391

Short 9,965 13,755

Net 36,814 27,636

EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)

11/02/04 week 10/26/04 week

Long 60,468 50,767

Short 7,003 5,236

Net 53,465 45,531

STERLING (Contracts of 62,000 pounds sterling)

11/02/04 week 10/26/04 week

Long 29,594 24,758

Short 16,252 15,233

Net 13,342 9,525

SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)

11/02/04 week 10/26/04 week

Long 39,924 35,403

Short 8,132 8,072

Net 31,792 27,331

CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)

11/02/04 week 10/26/04 week

Long 45,896 42,987

Short 6,204 6,764

Net 39,692 36,223

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)

11/02/04 week 10/26/04 week

Long 30,737 30,579

Short 1,747 2,049

Net 28,990 28,530

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 09:52 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   


0.7608 0.7648

small range

HK [email protected] 01:58 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
Looking on the Dow chart, one can see the simple fact that the 200d.m.a coincides well with the upper part of a flag formation on the daily. This was clearly pierced, so one can expect further gains. Immediate possible short term target at 10445 and expected Fibo. Res. Level at 10570 coinciding with the top of 4/6/04.

In my rough long term estimation there is a possibility that the DOW is going to something between….. 13000 to 13500. ALL TIMES HIGH !!!

How the U.S will make it with such a trade deficit and falling $$$ remains to see.

HK [email protected] 01:15 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
For today!

What is a complex move to revalue the Yuan means(article)?

I think that the first move by the C.B, will result to a a huge influx of forex to China.
If one looks around for bargains seems like the Yuan(and HKD) is the last bargain to get.

China hints at ‘safe’ approach to make yuan-dollar peg flexible
Web posted at: 11/7/2004 2:5:8
Source ::: Agencies

BEIJING: China’s central bank said it would take a “gradual and safe” approach to loosening the yuan-dollar peg, following International Monetary Fund (IMF) calls to let the currency float in a wider margin.

A spokesman for the People’s Bank of China quoted by the Jinrong Shibao financial daily yesterday said China would phase in moves to make the currency exchange rate more flexible.

The yuan is currently pegged in a narrow margin around 8.28 to the dollar under a regime enforced by the People’s Bank of China.

The spokesman said any moves to loosen the peg would be complex and would need to take many factors into consideration.

The bank would “adopt various measures to promote this reform gradually and safely,” he said. The bank’s comments followed publication of an IMF report in Washington on Friday following meetings held with Chinese authorities in May.

The report said China was concerned that moves to relax the yuan-dollar peg could spark a speculative wave forcing the yuan higher.

“While acknowledging the need eventually for increased exchange rate flexibility, the (Chinese) authorities have strong reservations about making an initial move in present circumstances,” the IMF staff said.

“In particular, they were concerned that a small initial move could exacerbate capital inflows.” The statement appeared to reflect a concern that many investors believe the yuan is undervalued.

However IMF staff said they were not convinced that the yuan was “substantially undervalued” and suggested that “a larger initial move would be necessary” if sizeable speculative capital inflows were to continue.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:00 GMT November 7, 2004 Reply   
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Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

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The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



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