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Forex Forum Archive for 11/08/2004

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Hong Kong Qindex 23:56 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

KL KL 23:54 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd +4 pips....sell the rally .. data will either knock or propel eur, aud,gbp, jpy soon

Boston mpd004 23:47 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Toronto/aviator// Hows your trading been doing? As I recall, you were doing quite well a week or so ago. I hope it continued. gl gt anyway.

Hong Kong Qindex 23:33 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 23:09 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

SF MRZ 23:08 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
when the news talk about weak dollar, maybe its time to get strong?

Gen dk 22:59 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Qindex 22:48 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Wien GD 22:47 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP .. consider to take some usd long positions ahead of fomc meeting. Which one would you prefer?

audusd, nzdusd, usdchf, usdcad, gbpusd or eurusd?

Tokyo IM 22:44 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
G'morning all.

Syd 22:37 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
A couple of nasties today for the Aud.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is no longer as concerned about Australia's housing "bubble" as it was. In its Statement on Monetary Policy, released on 8 November 2004, the central bank says there is no need at present for a rise in interest rates. At the same time it has maintained its bias towards tightening. Currency traders turned away from the Australian dollar on the news. The yield on the 10-year bond also fell. Futures traders believe a rate raise is an even-money chance in the 2005 first quarter
AFR.

Australia's Macquarie Bank is expected to announce on 9 November 2004 the purchase of 70% of Brussels airport. The investment bank will take a 20% share of Brussels International Airport Company, with offshoot Macquarie Airports (MAp) buying 50%, leaving the remaining 30% stake with the Belgian Government. MAp will fund its holding with the sale of equity and hybrid debt securities, totalling $A880 million. The airport currently has debts of about $A850 million. MAp is the majority owner of Sydney Airport, acquired in mid-2002 for $A5.59 billion
AFR.

Hong Kong Qindex 22:22 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 13:36 GMT November 8, 2004
EUR/USD : The market is going to challenge the supporting strength of the lower barrier of Curve C.


... 1.2878* // 1.2909 - 1.2939* - 1.2970 - 1.3000* // ...

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 21:25 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Texas(Jksn.) PNB 21:11 GMT November 8, 2004
But I would rather say Sell on Rallies, with target, sl and entries fixed by each individual.

All I can say is this:
I enter a trade until opposite tunrs true:
"Sell On rallies" means Sell and when it turns to "Buy On Dips", it means close position and buy and vice-versa. I shall post when it becomes "Buy on dips". I cant help with the entries and exits but can tell you what sentiment prevails in the market currently.

hope it helps
TIA:-)

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 21:11 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
HK REVDAX 20:35 GMT November 8, 2004

Not for my one-touch contracts but for the reading i posted: around 1.2773.

my posts are only for guidances. hope it helps.

TIA:-)

Syd 21:10 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
M&A news announcing a buy of Brussels airport from an
Aussie name and statements from the RBA that there was 'no pressing need' for further rate cuts at present, softened Aussie. US names sold as prices slipped to support near 0.7575/80. The rebound in the Dollar kept the negative pressure on Aussie and selling on the crosses also weighed. AUD/USD slipped back below 7575 and opened a drop to 0.7557. A rebound to 0.7585 was managed on EUR strength, but even that faded late in the day. Dip buyers remain abundant, and only a slide below 0.7510 will indicate a failed rally. Fade strength, as offers between 0.7600/10 are formidable. AUD crosses were soft today. EUR/AUD saw buying as models engineered a rally to 1.7100. AUD/NZD saw selling from model accounts as well as some closing of
long Kiwi positions. ifr

YVR MAXXIM 21:04 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
OIL
There are several things that can be done to adjust to the decline, notably liquefying coal which the South Africans have been doing for decades at $20 per barrel.

KL KL 20:48 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8558....yawn testing the dollar bears again

HK REVDAX 20:35 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Texas(Jksn.) PNB 20:32 //Any target in the next 1-2 days? TIA

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 20:32 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD: As per my readings(apart from my regular one-touch contracts), my charts says "sell on rallies" on eurusd for next 2-3 days. gl to everyone for today and hope my reading helps some way. My one-touch long on 12th nov shall be posted when I take it.

TIA:-)

Philadelphia Caba 20:31 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Good afternoon everyone & GT to all!
Yesterday I was wrong with short entry USD/CHF, closed @ 1.1785 (-23 pips); still have short EUR/CHF @ 1.5280 (short @ 1.5262 from yesterday closed at b/e early) waiting for 1.5250 break.

NYC ET 20:20 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Afte fireworks on Friday, equities are seeing a low volume day. Forex market seems to be operating the same way.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:42 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
dallas...sorry about that...

orlando jcr 19:25 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
10pip,

I'm not the strongest technician on this baord.

In fact, I'm usually happier to follow the trend - miss a few pip - and make money on the middle 60-80% of a swing.

That said, I also thought there was a short term opportunity with $Y, althought I would have probably been happy with 105.65/70 rather than what you were noting - but that's more what I'm looking for.

Seeing your post, and my thoughts I bought one position at 105.56 to see what it did. No great risk with a few hundred in possible profit as the market winds down for its usual dinner pause (on east coast).

Boulder DAT 19:18 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Trichet's comments on the recent weakness of the dollar vs. the euro have given the greenback a bit of respite. I imagine that the Japanese officials will begin their rhetoric against the stronger yen as well in the coming sessions. I doubt that this will stop the overall wekaness in the dollar. I'm viewing these comments as pauses in the market, and opportunities to sell again. After all their attempts to slow the rising yen at the beginning of the year, it was ultimately ill-fated. They spent billions. Yet, were unable to really stop the progress of the yen's appreciation. In the end, all they could do was reclassify what they were doing to "smoothing" the market moves. Although, the yen seems to be a bit stuck in this recent range. I would expect that if the rhetoric isn't too strong, then the yen could break higher vs the dollar. Likewise, without shooting a shot accross the bow, I expect the European currencies to strengthen vs the dollar in the coming sessions. The item we should be eying up next is the trade balance out of the U.S. on Wednesday. I think the Fed meeting is a given. So, eyse will be more gleened on the trade numbers.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:15 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas...I think U can see that the pairs are in line with bounds...
I don't know for sure...
I guess I have to trust my work....works fine....fine
I f doesn't I gave it my best
Just added assuie

Syd 19:12 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Macquarie Air consortium buys Brussels airport
consortium led by Macquarie Airports was last night finalising the acquisition of a controlling interest in Brussels's international airport, Zaventem - its largest deal since buying into Rome Airport two years ago.

The purchase price has not been clarified, although it is expected to be more than €600 million ($1 billion).

Could be a $A negative

mexico ferrer 19:10 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
be carefull with usd/jpy may be an intervention, players will start to push jpy towards 105.00 looking for the famous intervention 106.50 and again for 105.50

Dallas GEP 19:08 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Well BAHRAIN I would say long usd/jpy from 105.30 with say @ stop @ 105.14. Trying to find the where our firends may be since last week when they were at 105.50

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:08 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
I think both...
and Yours?

orlando jcr 19:05 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
10pip,

Interested in your prediction of USD/JPY during the 17:00 hour (est).
Do you feel your timing was off, or were your indicators wrong?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:04 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Longing aussie 1.7565 60 55

SF MRZ 19:01 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
not a bad day for trading Eur/$ today. thursday might be another good one for good size movement.

Quebec Swap 18:53 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Got a limit order to buy EUR/USD @1.2885

mexico ferrer 18:35 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
look for 1.2970 tonight sell eur/usd for 1.2860 and start buying longs
im buying longs from 1.2692 ,1.2750,1.2800 looking for 1.3300 end of the year 10 lots every position

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:29 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Just added eur/gbp
I am buying this dude

NewYork frankie 18:21 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
closed all positions euro +20 aussie +11 I've got an uneasy feeling

mexico ferrer 18:16 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
or what do u think
????

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:13 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
I Guess something is suppose to happen in a few...
if not...Oh well I have to back to the drawing board

mexico ferrer 18:11 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
sell eur for 1.2860 and start buying for 1.3150 after focm meeting

Gen dk 18:07 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:00 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
http://kalzayani.freewebsites.com/today.htm
Just added Cable Yen

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:52 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
I have these time as for the highest
11/8/2004 13:15 105.7477461
11/8/2004 13:20 105.7481928
11/8/2004 13:25 105.7480782
11/8/2004 13:30 105.7478234

in 30 minutes

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:46 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas
What do U say for Posi for the yen?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:39 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
shorting yen 70 75 and 80

Syd 17:37 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
thanks

Belgrade Knez 17:35 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Oil 48.85 -0.76

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:35 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas I Know...
That's why I say to put the stop after it goes into your favour

http://kalzayani.freewebsites.com/today.htm
Just added Yen

YVR MAXXIM 17:34 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
MUST BE THE 2 HEADED HEARING AID! LOL

Toronto YV 17:30 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
oil 49.15.

YVR MAXXIM 17:25 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/mining_finance/389047.htm

Dallas GEP 17:23 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
BAHRAIN, Well the KEY is tho can you hold possie if you are off on your accuracy until it goes BACK your direction. After 30 pips most specs are OUT.

Syd 17:22 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Anyone got oil price tia

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:17 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas sometimes the accuracy is not that good...but direction is

NewYork frankie 17:15 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Euro stop at 1.2960 Aussie stop at .76. Btw, don't get so emotional over money!

Dallas GEP 17:14 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
MAYBE!!!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:12 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
cable going up again to 1.8595

Ldn 17:11 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
COT Charts Euro

Dallas GEP 17:10 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
l closed SHORT eur/usd a tad early but a pip up to 1.2958 and I will be seller again

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:08 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Frankie Get out man!!!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:04 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
NewYork frankie 17:02 GMT November 8, 2004
Sold Aussie and Euro for big reward later today. Stops 20 above both.

What r the stops Frankie?

NewYork frankie 17:02 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Sold Aussie and Euro for big reward later today. Stops 20 above both.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:01 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
I wish FXXX would let the user have a trail of less then 30 pips
Say Spread+ 1 pip

berlin otto 17:00 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Ok, today is very queit day!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:59 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
More long euro at 33 and 30

Dude City Dude 16:53 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Thks.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:52 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
http://kalzayani.freewebsites.com/today.htm
I am just using this

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:51 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Euro Taget 1.30 with caution

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:48 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Dudes

Ldn 16:47 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
The latest IMM data recorded a further sharp increase in long Euro positions of around 8,000 in the latest week, pushing the net long positions to over 53,000. This will make it more difficult for the Euro to extend short-term gains and raises the possibility of a sharp correction
inves

Dallas GEP 16:46 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
GOT out at +20 pips on EURO short. Good advice BAHRAIN!!!!

gold coast martin 16:46 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   


Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:45 GMT November 8, 2004
You may want to close at 12944......g/t

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:45 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas I Just longed euro

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:42 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Japan's Central Bank Uses Fib to plan for it's currency

LDN LDN 16:41 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
The USD getting stretched enough for them to make a difference even on a small hit

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:41 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Longing cable at 1.8540 before close (NY)
Target 1.8565

LDN LDN 16:39 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. dollar clawed its way up from record lows against the euro Monday, finding some footing after the chief of the European Central Bank spoke out against the swiftness of the euro's recent advance.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, speaking after a meeting with central bankers in Basel, Switzerland, said that the euro's latest gains on the dollar were "brutal" and "not welcome."

Dallas GEP 16:33 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
YEP, BAHRAIN to tell you the truth I wanted to short from 1.2980 area but I had my doubts it would print that at this time

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:31 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas..Might wanna close at 1.2940 area

Gen dk 16:31 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:29 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
after closing (NY)
don't know...but things look like gonna be nasty
if need a pair in my page...let me know

Dallas GEP 16:27 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Ok shorted eur/usd @ 1.2958 with 1.2970 stop and 1.2908 TP

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:27 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Dow should hit 9850 area in next 2 weeks

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:21 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
cable target 1.8550

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:17 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
cable will drop now

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:14 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
gonna short cable soon till us close 1.86

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:07 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
http://kalzayani.freewebsites.com/
I think u have to go to the index page 1st

Ldn 16:05 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
The German ZEW econ expectations index seen falling for 4th straight mo to 29.1 in Nov from 31.3 in Oct. surging euro causes headache for exporters as domestic demand stays weak, oil prices hurt cos' profit expectations 1000 GMT Tue.

Colorado Chief1Oar 16:04 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain ... tried your link, all I get is a blank screen, when I right click to go back I get a message saying I must click "YES" to continue...

Hope this helps...

Chief

hk ab 16:04 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
TaiPei Earthquake 5.7

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:01 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Just say No for the plug-in

Illinois DB 15:59 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain it's visible but it requires a plugin.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:55 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
http://kalzayani.freewebsites.com/today.htm
U guys can see this..right?

Illinois DB 15:51 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Perrie isn't that data a little old?

perrie como 15:46 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
ELECTION WEEK
The trading week has opened on a quiet note with all markets anxiously awaiting the outcome of the long awaited US presidential election. Current polls show President Bush slightly ahead but both sides are rumored to have their legal teams queued up awaiting a dispute. Any sort of a long drawn out dispute is likely to weigh further on the USD. EUR/USD is finding good resistance at 1.2850 where rumored option barriers are keeping a cap on the market. Latest IMM data released on Friday shows speculative USD shorts increased across the board (with the exception of USD/CAD). A new video released by Osama Bin Laden on Friday once again threatening the US brought some market jitters but the Department of Homeland Security opted not to raise the terror threat level.

Economic data out of the US on Friday showed 3Q GDP up by 3.7%, lower than the market expectations of 4.3%. Despite higher oil costs, consumption still seems to be fueling this market. Economic data out this week includes Manufacturing ISM (Monday), Non- manufacturing ISM (Wednesday) and the much anticipated Non-farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate (Friday). China raised their benchmark one-year lending rate by 27 basis points bringing the rate to 5.58%. The rate hike is viewed as a preemptive measure by the People's Bank of China in reaction to high inflationary data out of the area.

perrie como 15:45 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
http://biz.yahoo.com/censored/041105/1099663716_60567_1.html

This was Weekly Option Strategy for last week if interested

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:38 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
http://kalzayani.freewebsites.com/today.htm
watch after closing

perrie como 15:37 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Dubai
pls not listen to that absurdity, know the broker need to sell you more than to advise you properly..

Volatily is too expensive at present Tell him he shd have tell you that coupla weeks ago

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:35 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
short 1.8603 cable and get it real fast

Dubai PA 15:35 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
A broker is telling me to buy Calls on $/euro & telling me about huge proffits on the $ going down. What sort of leverage should I expect from this & if euro went up say 3 cents how much should I expect to make on a 1000 euro contract ?

Global-View Research 15:32 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Trichet Protests Dollar Slide, China Defends Peg, US Jobs Hum (FXA)



You would have to search very hard to find anyone more bearish on the outlook for the dollar than myself. But it would be foolhardy to believe that the structural theme of towering twin deficits can alone drive the dollar lower, indefinitely. The stars need to be better aligned to keep this trend going and right now the night time sky is only partially visible... See full update in our research section CLICK HERE

perrie como 15:27 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
If Eur/Usd consilidate above 1.2950 no one stops NEW $ LOWS

bi now

OK SZ 15:27 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
If bush sticks to his plan and does the social security personal accounts and if he stops the insanity of the farm subsidies things will go pretty well for him. My take on the stock market is that the dow will do pretty good for the first 3qtrs of 2005 but believe a recession is likely late 2005/2006. However if he can get social security reform and stop the farm subsidies the recession will not be as prolonged. I could go further into this but feel these 2 issues are vitaly important. off so gt, gl to all

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:23 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Euro Might go up again from 1.2912

JHB CDB 15:22 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
I got a tip, to be long in the market, EUR/USD from now, and put a Stop loss at 1.2902, Then a new entry for a Sell at 1.2900. Do you think this is suicide? As my systems can't verify this setup?

NY NY 15:19 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
fiber nickname doesn't work IMHO.....

Dallas Mauricio 15:17 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
That makes sense! Thanks.

Vereeniging Wil 15:14 GMT November 8, 2004
In another forum they decided to give nicnames to certain currencies. Cable was in the old times, nowadays fiber optics carry most data, hence fiber for the euro

Vereeniging Wil 15:14 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
In another forum they decided to give nicnames to certain currencies. Cable was in the old times, nowadays fiber optics carry most data, hence fiber for the euro

Dallas Mauricio 15:06 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Good question! Why?

Santo Domingo tht 15:03 GMT November 8, 2004
What's the reason behind calling Euro Fiber?


Sydney Alimin 15:04 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
LOL, look at usd/cad, it keeps making new low

perrie como 15:04 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
TG am not following the political forum...btw am not so biased, but Bush might be well impeached as well due abuse of informations. Personally think that always old story...Reps going in trouble for money while Demos for women :)

Santo Domingo tht 15:03 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
What's the reason behind calling Euro Fiber?

Tokyo IM 15:02 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
I am off for a sleep, GT all.
Prediction: Fiber closes close to 1.2970 +/- 15 pips.

SanFrancisco TG 15:01 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 14:40 - I thought this kind of negativity from Euros toward Bush from people who want to see the impeached Clinton re-elected belonged in the Political Forum.

Dallas Mauricio 14:55 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Hi GEP!

perrie como 14:50 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
think we might be ready for another $ sell off

Tokyo IM 14:43 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Mauricio 14:40 GMT November 8, 2004// Hello

Dallas GEP 14:41 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Hi Dallas M!!!

Dallas Mauricio 14:40 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Hi everybody! GL/GT

perrie como 14:40 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
http://slate.msn.com/id/2109203/

exerpt:
A Republican Congress working with a Republican president created the massive new Medicare prescription-drug entitlement, passed a new, subsidy-crammed farm bill, committed hundreds of billions of dollars to war efforts, and loaded up on pork-barrel spending. Meanwhile, taxes were reduced—on wage earners, investors, and companies. The end result: We collected about the same amount of taxes in fiscal 2004 as we did in fiscal 1999. But we spent 34 percent more. The total national debt has risen 30 percent in the past four years. The fiscally conservative Clinton administration had committed government to restraining spending. But now a massive structural gap has opened up between the country's financial inflows and outflows. It's only the willingness of the Chinese and Japanese central banks to buy our debt that keeps us afloat.

perrie como 14:36 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/


Debt held by the public: $4,330,094,230,746.89

Intragovernmental holdings: $3,099,838,774,071.40

SanFrancisco TG 14:35 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Looking to pick up AUD in the 7550 - 7560 region in likelyhood.

Gen dk 14:34 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

SanFrancisco TG 14:26 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
PERSONAL SAVINGS

Since peaking at 10% in 1992, the savings rate of Americans has steadily dropped without exception throughout the 1990’s, finally bottoming out at 2%. A sharp increase was seen in early 2001 up to 5%, but it was followed by a sharp drop immediately following the 911 terror attack to under 1%. Since the attack, the rate has fluctuated between the low and just under 4%.

U.S. households saw their total net worth rise in Q4 2003 to a record $44.41 trillion.

perrie como 14:19 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
TG there are couple of things little strange as a comparison...
particuralry debt held by the public...vs debt...and missing completly foreign debt, and debt vs IMF and other global institutions ...

we will see ...I do not believe It too much, as in history debt problems usually require decades....

plus the big problem is that the US consumer is ill and over indebted....this makes a big difference to me, as doubt It will be as it was during the roaring 90's

Dallas GEP 14:17 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Well it is likley that EURO will bounce at least temporarily LONG from 1.2890 area

SanFrancisco TG 14:11 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that under current policies, the federal deficit will total $477 billion in fiscal year 2004 and then decline to $362 billion in 2005.

Although that 2004 deficit would be a record in nominal dollars, it would represent a smaller share of the economy--4.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)--than the deficits recorded in the mid-1980s and early 1990s.

For the 10 years from 2005 through 2014, CBO projects that current policies would produce a cumulative deficit of $1.9 trillion, or 1.3 percent of total GDP over that period.

The total deficit as a percent of GDP is projected to be reduced to 2.0% by year end 2007, from the current 4.2% of 2004. Eurozone deficit as a percent of GDP was 2.2% in 2002 for purposes of comparison.

Based on the CBO's baseline which provides a neutral benchmark for proposed changes to taxes and spending, discretionary spending is projected to increase by only 2.5 percent per year (about half the projected growth rate of the economy) through 2014. Total outlays are projected to grow at an average rate of 4.7 percent a year and remain near 20 percent of GDP through 2014

Federal debt held by the public will equal 38%of GDP at the end of this fiscal year, CBO projects. In the baseline, such debt stabilizes at about 40 percent of GDP through 2011, at which point the government's diminished need for borrowing causes debt held by the public to shrink as a share of GDP. Eurozone debt was 69% of GDP in 2003.

Assuming the $87 billion supplemental appropriation law of 2003 (mostly for military and reconstruction activities in Iraq) or a like supplemental would not continue each year throughout the projection period, the projected 10-year deficit would shrink from $1.9 trillion to $785 billion. Debt held by the public at the end of 2014 would drop from 35 percent of GDP to 29 percent.

This is irrespective of the value of the US Dollar.

Stockholm AGuy 14:08 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 14:05 GMT:

OK, here's a hint to resolve your conundrum: measured in what currency?

perrie como 14:07 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Whatever the mornings calls for a stronger US$ from ECB and Bank of China, It looks still unresolved and risk of further US$ sell-offs remains yet high into the IMM early session.

Livingston nh 14:05 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
I'll drop this but after Plaza accord in 85 imports increased by nearly 10% in 86, 11% in 87 and 10% in 88 (after a less than 2% increas in 85 the peak USD strength)

Stockholm AGuy 14:04 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 14:00 GMT: With all due respect, if a US customer proposes to pay me with worthless scrip, I will not sell to him, no matter how much worthless scrip he offers... If you really believe that devaluing a country's currency won't affect its foreign trade, you don't have a problem with a "myth", you have a problem with elementary logic.

Livingston nh 14:00 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
AGuy - actually a weaker USD has virtually no effect on import growth (recession slows it a bit) - this whole J-curve theory is a myth

Stockholm AGuy 13:55 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 13:50 GMT: "a declining USD is not going to increase exports"

It helps, but is no guarantee of course (US companies must make something worth buying, too). On the other hand, a sufficiently low dollar will definitely limit US imports. Remember the old saying, it's not what you make, it's what you spend...

knoxville dan-k 13:52 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
maby america needs to make something to export

Livingston nh 13:50 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
The idea of a "weak vs strong" USD and its effect on the current account (indeed the whole idea of a current account problem) is not supported by data but merely by headlines and the "chicken little" economists who use obsolete economic theory // Take a look at US exports since 2000 and the value of the dollar - a declining USD is not going to increase exports

Tokyo IM 13:39 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
OK pulled back from fiber at 28. +11 pips reload later.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:37 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:33 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 13:20 GMT November 8, 2004
Tks 4 Ur post amigo. I've seen it when 80% were incorrect however in this case and tho 60% say I'm right, I'm still sticking to my USD bear attitude for 4-6 months. If a cheap temporary USD doesn't happen, the US can't and won't recouperate with the rapidity everyone wants and everyone does want the USA, consumier city, to recouperate ASAP. Or should. If USA can't, then goodby world econ. The econ of USA is in the balance..it could go either way. Problem is, it could collapse a lot faster than it can escallate. Mess with the balance and you've killed the goose that lays golden eggs. Is Tritchet really that stupid? Probably not. Remember Tritchet is not the dictator of the Euro..a panel is. Tritchet is the mouthpiece just as Greenspan is for the Fed. Find the ECB panel's complaint box, if they have one.

Dallas GEP 13:29 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
CLOSED eur/gbp short @ 6970 for +25, feel eur/usd will probably long back up some taking eur/gbp long with it.

Tokyo IM 13:26 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
KL KL, sorry was in a bathroom could not answer before. I am ok, glad you had a good weekend and ready for plenty more knifes to catch. I am currently longing fiber from 17.

perrie como 13:25 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Yes Gecko waiting Usd/Jpy between 104.50 to 102 this week...Chicago is historically record short of dollars against all....This smellllllllls

bi now

GA TJ 13:22 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 13:14 GMT November 8, 2004

My stuff is indicating that somewhere between 1.2862 and 1.2889 would be a good spot to enter Long. It may take a few hours to get there. But WTH do I know I was expecting a correction over a week ago.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:21 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
May I reiterate:
quito_ecuador_valdez 00:41 GMT November 8, 2004
BTW I don't see anything wrong with assuming a stop hunt all the way to 1.2900.

We all know any upward path involves stair steps. Compare this action to the chart period 11-4 to 11-5. Today is stairstep day.

You can also compare this action to period 10-25 to 10-27.

1.30 is a psychological barrier, expect some battles like this if it is to be punctured.

HK rf// well put below...

van Gecko 13:20 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
"Sixty percent of the traders, strategists and investors questioned on Nov. 5 from Tokyo to New York advised selling the dollar against the euro. Participants also said the U.S. currency will likely drop versus the yen, British pound, Swiss franc and Australian dollar.

bloomberg"


sweet music for Dollar bulls & bears..
QDN @ prime time ..



Miami fleon 13:19 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
from Germany

Miami fleon 13:18 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
The Industry Association Head said Euro at $1.35 -.40 is almost intolerable.
Euro at 1.00 - $1.10 is acceptable

perrie como 13:18 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Also if Usd/Jpy touches 106 will add more shorts to my possies

perrie como 13:14 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Think Eur/Usd might print out later on prices between 1.2870/40

Rockford BDR 13:14 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
GREAT post valdez!

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:06 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Illinois DB 12:45 GMT November 8, 2004
and perrie como//
Both of you made excellent points. I side with the USD bears at this point as I think there was some election perfume in the air about the true real US recovery, i.e. statistics are statistics, they can be "bent" to mean just about anything. I think the US needs frankly all the breaks it can get and it WILL recover just fine..things cycle up and down. One of those breaks is a low USD for just a while, say less than a year..not asking too much from the largest consumer in the world to cure the problem which could fester if not recovered into a world wide depression! Let's get USA back on it's feet first before worrying about the USD value. A healthy USA will automatically install a healthy USD. End of statement.

I also have to give ear to GVI John's comment about Tritchet. When Tritchet talks out of both sides of his mouth, then that's what we have to accept...like him or not. The ECB can indeed purchase USD paper or USDs for some time to bolster the USD, artificially, but it is a temporary patch as the resources of the ECB are in fact limited, albeit to a huge pile of power...but never-the-less limited. If the USD is supported prematurely then it ruins the effect of a cheaper USD to spawn exports to reduce the US trade deficit, which is one big issue everyone's crying about. It's like surgery...you don't want to do it but you KNOW it will cure the problem. In this case a lower USD is the surgery.

HK [email protected] 13:06 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Temporary Gold weakness.

While breaking above 15Ys. Res. there was no wild price surge as many gold bugs suspected.
A complete unexpected loss of momentum!!!

Have to think now twice, if price will continue to 445, or as some analysts expect back below 370.

We know that gold at the current price, is not much in demand in the physical market, so a correction is possible.
Other analysts forcast 445 followed by a decline back to 360.
The risk is too high to long. So for today better keep away.


SG what happening today on Eur/Dsd 13:01 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Eur/$$ taking a break from high of 12986 and low of 12913.... anyone can explan it??

Dallas GEP 12:55 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp short trailing stop now at 6975 to lock in 20 pips

perrie como 12:54 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
hk ref.... you can work harder even for free for good people is better maybe....but seems religious hands behind economies to me

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:54 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
GVI John// Thanks for the heads up on Tritchet's comments. It's interesting however Tritchet says one thing, such as a relaxing of attitude towards USD temporary devaluation about a month ago, then he turns around and says exactly the opposite and issues a warning.

Earlier this year when Tritchet was worried about the USD devaluating substantially, the ECB pegged the "pain threshold" at 1.32. A month ago we were told that the ECB was not worried about a USD devaluation because in their words the USA needed a recouperation period to export etc. with a cheap dollar. Now Tritchet is excited again, saying the exact opposite in effect. This back and forth is nuts on Tritchet's part. Just a reminder, Mr. Tritchet is not president of the United States.

I would take Tritchet's words as warning as John advised (again, tks for heads up on this John) but from a Euro man who talks out both sides of his French mouth.

perrie como 12:53 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
sorry dollar was sold during the last w/e due roumors of changes in the Chines peg.

external] UPDATE - China vows to keep tight grip on yuan, monetary policy - at Reuters - 46 minutes ago
China will maintain a stable monetary and yuan policy as it keeps a racing economy in check, a senior central banker was quoted as saying, amid speculation Beijing could move any time to revalue the currency.

HK [email protected] 12:52 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 12:47 GMT November 8, 2004

Distress??? Yes. How to solve it?

Work harder and harder to relieve it.

perrie como 12:51 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Btw the Dollar was buoyed as during the w/e there were some roumors China will not use so much dollars as reserves, but there's an official just before said It would not happen and the peg stays as is that sparked a buying round of Us$ vs mostly all.

g/l

KL KL 12:50 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
outgbpusd short +3 inflation pips

KL KL 12:47 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
long gbpusd 1.8564 sl 7 below

perrie como 12:47 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
No US data today so feel free to check some records of such policies we are imposed to accept:

• NEW HIGH (all-time high) … in the “Number of Unemployed, Men, Aged 55 and over”
• NEW HIGH (all-time high) … in the “Total Number Aged 55 and over, Not in Labor Force”
• NEW HIGH (new all-time high) … in the “Number of Unemployed that did not search for a new job
in the last 12 months”
• NEW HIGH … in the “Number of Part-time for Economic Reasons”.
• NEW HIGH (all-time high) … in the “Number of People Not in Labor Force”
• NEW HIGH … in the “Number of Part-time Because of Slack Work”.
• NEW HIGH (all-time high) … in the “Percent of Total Employed, Who are Multiple-Job Holders”
• NEW HIGH … in the “Number of Multiple-Job Holders, Both Jobs Full-time
MAN … there is a LOT OF DISTRESS to be found, beneath the surface.

Illinois DB 12:45 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Valdez you said earlier

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:07
US just said it had X new jobs, yet at the same time they said they had Y out of work. Doesn't add up to me nor to big money...something's amiss or someone's lieing.


The lie was mostly in earlier reports, not so much in this one. The unemployment rate doesn't count discouraged workers who have given up looking for a job, i.e. aren't showing up at the unemployment office, so when the rate drops you don't see an increase in the working population. That means that there are a lot of unemployed people out there who aren't being counted. Now the opposite happened, they finally got more hopeful and went back to the unemployment office, so NOW they get counted as unemployed.

KL KL 12:42 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
out eurusd 1.2937 +10 -7 =+3...still nursing other losses

GVI john 12:41 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 12:32 GMT November 8, 2004
Trichet: Recent eur/$ moves butal, not welcome

GVI john 12:39 GMT November 8, 2004
I would not dismiss the Trichet comments. They are a clear warning.

KL KL 12:39 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Rats..... gbpusd long got hit -7 long eur 1.2927...sl 7 below hope to recover loss on this

perrie como 12:31 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
12.30 Trichet says euro overvalued against all mostly, while in Chicago has set historic record of open long contracts.

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:30 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 12:01 GMT November 8, 2004
EXTREMELY GOOD POINT, Sam, I hope all take note of it. I believe the €/$ chart will see 1.32 quick enough but it could correct first, the amount of correction is speculative. I see a double top formed overnight but 2nd peak is higher than 1st indicating (from chartist point of view) a further climb before a major (over 100 pips) correction. No US econ news due today..but tomorrow yes, yet not super important:

Tuesday Tomorrow's US data:
USD Wholesale Inventories SEP 15:00 es=0.7% pr=0.9%
USD bulls want to see a lower figure, means businesses being responsible with management.
USD Wholesale Sales SEP 15:00 es=0.7% pr=1.2%
We want to see a larger figure so this is a bit disappointing to USD bulls.


8-Nov Monday TODAY All times GMT es=estimate pr=previous

CAD Housing Starts OCT 13:15 es=225k pr=231k
CAD BOC Longworth Speaks 16:50
JPY Money Supply M2+CD YoY OCT 23:50 es=2.2% pr=2.1%
JPY Broad Liquidity YoY OCT 23:50 es=3.3% pr=3.3%
JPY Bank Lending YoY OCT 23:50 es=3.3% pr=3.3%

Excellent E/$ trading volitility today thus far..bias is in shorts...likely calming down by mid morning after some correction is attained.

Philadelphia Caba 12:20 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Sold EUR/CHF @1.5280

Lagos BA 12:18 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Anybody hazarding a gues as to whats gonna happen at 1230gmt

KL KL 12:14 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
long gbpusd 1.8572 sl 7 below...very short play

slv sam 12:01 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
careful! most players imho are waiting for euro to show any sign of fatigue! if so i expect e/$ to loose 150-250 quickly!GT

KL KL 11:53 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM , Good day to you...I just caught one just now....small bleeding of -9 pips only. I was away in the weekend and much needed rest/sleep. I just tried another knife catching exercise again on gbpusd at 1.8592....this one has a divergence short term and needs correction to head higher. Also shorted eurusd at 1.2956 ....sl 7 above....I want to buy the dip but this is too high to buy now...the closer to 1.29 better. I feel things are hard today....maybe I am still in rest mode...kind of hard to get those timing right. What about you, any possie yet.

ok out gbpusd 1.8590..+2 pips eurusd 1.2951 +5, I dare not short usdjpy cos I feel Shogun and BOJ just hiding in the bushes....waiting to strike hard....Just longing this pair nearer to 105

Spore 11:53 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Monday November 8, 2004 - 10:40:24 GMT
censored - www.censored.com
Euro Rally Takes a Pause

Last Friday neither the pathetically weak German Industrial Production (-1.2% vs. 04% expected) numbers nor the incredibly strong US Non-Farm payroll report could stop the euro from marching upward as the unit hit an all time of 1.2973 by the end of the New York close. Buoyed by rumors that Asian central banks were liquidating their dollar positions as well as Gerhard Shroeder’s muted remarks regarding the rise of the euro, traders forgot about jobs and focused on the US deficit problems instead. Tonight, the euro finally hit a wall. The latest Retail PMI numbers from the Euro-zone show that chronic unemployment, rising energy costs and slowing global demand for European exports are taking their toll on the region’s consumers. Amongst the big three only Italy showed a minor improvement to 47.7 from 46.6 last month, while both Germany and France saw the gauges of retail activity fall to 49.7 from 50.4 and 47.2 from 48.5 respectively.

Last week IMF cut the growth forecasts for both Germany and France – the two largest economies in the EU. Unless oil prices recede the region’ s economy is likely to be stagnant for the foreseeable future. While the euro may continue to attract buyers in its role as the primary “anti-dollar” currency of the world, at some point Euro-zone fundamentals will have to justify the unit’s lofty rise. As most market players eagerly eye the 1.40 level by year’s end, we wonder if the currency could even hold the 1.30 handle if it’s eco data does not improve.

GER ad 11:50 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
CAD strong on crosses, any news?

Tokyo IM 11:40 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
KL KL, are you catching the knifes today? I do not see you post much.

Tokyo IM 11:29 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 11:26 GMT November 8, 2004 // Good one.

Calcutta Vikram 11:26 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Don't know if you've already seen this....

1) Go to Google.com
2) Type in "weapons of mass destruction" (including the quotation marks)
3) Click "I'm Feeling lucky"

Enjoy (please excuse political incorrectness if any). No offences meant

Hong Kong Qindex 11:10 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

london LS 11:06 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
ok guys we have a weakening dollar here but it is showing no signs of it weakening against GBP?

ok now i reckon we are gna see a 1.32 USD/Eur within the next few days

but for some reason i think we are gna see a 1.85 cable

this is a very very bullish market at the moment so guys

GOOD LUCK

KL KL 11:06 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd short -8 loss ...now flat...wait to long on dips or short higher. Today will be quiet and unpredictable....

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:05 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
http://kalzayani.freewebsites.com/today.htm
Just added aussie and nz

Hong Kong Qindex 10:59 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

KL KL 10:55 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8601...not sure why it is going up when eurusd is heading lower...lets see. Oil prices easing

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:53 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Aussie going back up
carefull

Rivonia PipPirate 10:50 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 10:15 GMT "spy sweeper" appears to be doing a better job wrt spyware atm imho.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:42 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:36 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
New York BEST collections FOR TRADER'S 10:30 GMT November 8, 2004
//
Dudes here make them

Hong Kong Qindex 10:30 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


Hong Kong Qindex 10:23 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:17 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 10:15 GMT November 8, 2004
///
Thanks...:)
The 10 minutes chart is over now the 5 minutes

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:16 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
http://kalzayani.freewebsites.com/today.htm
Charts

Bris TW 10:15 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain it is no trojan or virus but a spyware like gain and so on. Its the price you pay for free web hosting.
Just choose no. Do not install it. Spyware can be cleaned with programs like Adaware

perrie como 10:14 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain you had a strong sell for Eur/usd 1 hr ago approx...guess gbp/usd might be the same

do you think market will follow 12.30 gmt Trichet or 10 minutes charts

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:12 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 10:03 GMT November 8, 2004 //
I did not put that thing in there como.
I am a trader not mabu Jambo

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:10 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Heavy short cable here
The chart...I posted got it perfect

Hong Kong Qindex 10:08 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:07 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Sorry about the torjen...what ever..
I don't where that come from...

perrie como 10:03 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Better not to touch unofficial websites....Just couple of months ago a Turkish Hacker messed on my web too, so I let them play on that so to get infos about those stupid loosers.

PS At the end is very easy to hack whatever since around there's a bunch of free softwares even grandma might be capable to use. But all in all is wasting of time so better not to go public unless you are not a company with well developed securiyt plans.

JHB JW 10:01 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, I can see it, no problem

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 10:01 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
BAHRAIN

i need to instal IE PLUGIN....I DO NOT WANT THAT

jkt-aye 10:00 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
same situation with Alanfx here, Bahrain .....

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:57 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
http://kalzayani.freewebsites.com/
Maybe pls?

hk ab 09:57 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
money will shift from eur to gbp then?

Hemel UK Alanfx 09:57 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, no mate, because it advised me to get active8 or something, and when i clicked it my virus programme shutdown access to it as it gave me a Trojan Horse...

finally managed to quarantine and remove it...

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 09:56 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips

TODAY

I GET A PROBLEM

perrie como 09:55 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Since the market is far from techical presently I do suspect big long hands preparing the squeeze for 12.30 GMT where the ECB President might say at a certain point they will pull the triggers very easily. But think they already pulling/pilling into this side.

g/l

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:53 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
http://kalzayani.freewebsites.com/today.htm
can anyone see this?
Pls?

LDN. 09:50 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
ECB Looks To Ease EUR Price Via Back Door, 1.2950 Eyed IFR

hk ab 09:48 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
noted eur/gbp didn't take 0.7.

azarento aza 09:48 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Sg SELL EUR/USD 09:39 GMT November 8, 2004
As EUR?USD are over bought... look for day high ... sell down until Slow slowchastics (12, 26,12) point upward.
Enjoy trading....Make your money today.cheer



Good luck...im long!

KL KL 09:45 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
out eurusd 1.2957 +13...just started the day...boo...boring

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:45 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
http://kalzayani.freewebsites.com/today.htm
can anyone see this?

Hong Kong Qindex 09:44 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Gen dk 09:42 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sg SELL EUR/USD 09:39 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
As EUR?USD are over bought... look for day high ... sell down until Slow slowchastics (12, 26,12) point upward.
Enjoy trading....Make your money today.cheer

hk mom 09:27 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected]
bc// your view appreciated. oil down over $3 from 52.5 last week but shoot euro up over 1.29.

HK [email protected] 09:15 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
A blow or a kiss for $$$$ shorts, may come from an unexpected direction...the oil market.
This is a factor which should be brought into account.
Suppose tonight 2$ will be knocked off the current price, ask what will happen to the currency Mkt. And of course celebration in the DOW.

shanghai bc 08:56 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   

MOM--No matter what,please do not join dotty grandpa.. The easy money is still in buying Eur/Usd on dips..

Dallas GEP 08:47 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Well just back to board and I have one order that was taken a eur/gbp short fron 6995 target 6945 That is all

KL KL 08:43 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
hk ab or hk family are you the one with the C9 index?? Just need to know the status of C9..TIA.

ok short eurusd 1.2970 lets see the eur bull!!

Helsinki iw 08:39 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Nouriel Rubini and Brad Setzer are both pretty gloomy:

http://www.stern.nyu.edu/globalmacro/

Interesting reading while waiting for Trichet.

gl to all.

Tokyo IM 08:27 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain 08:25 GMT November 8, 2004 //

same thing.

Bahrain 08:25 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
try refresh

hk mom 08:24 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
bc

hk mom 08:22 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Should I cancel my sell and chase with the momentum for 1.32?

Tokyo IM 08:20 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
10 pips //

Forbidden
You don't have permission to access /[F] on this server.

Additionally, a 403 Forbidden error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:17 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
http://kalzayani.freewebsites.com/today.htm
take a look

shanghai bc 08:16 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   

AB -- Good afternoon..ECB may be waiting till the market has had it enough first..Forex market almost always overshoots once momentum sets in..And I am sure it will overshoot again this time..Medium-term overstretched region is still many hundreds pips and many moons away..Good trades.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:14 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
shorting euro within an hour

perrie como 08:13 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Smells of intervention to lower the euro, with Trichet later on.
Strange wait and see. Also that 1.30 all waiting seems more a Bull trap, as to easy to me.

Still thinking Better Yen.

g/l

Ldn 08:09 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD not yet breached 1.30 , spec accounts cautious ahead of the G10/BIS mtg anf Trichet's press conference 1230 GMT

Ldn 08:08 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
IMM speculators raised their aggregate USD short positions to a new record level, notes ABN AMRO. Speculators are short USD vs all currencies but are not yet extreme in JPY and GBP, in contrast to EUR, CHF, AUD and CAD.

perrie como 08:02 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Is there any from the new confilict in africa....also Chirac entering war, but think is not for oil but weapons

Syd 07:27 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD offers ahead of 1.3000 to protect massive amount
of option barriers.

Chicago Goofy 07:23 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
If we priced in 200 pips in Friday`s strong job report, shall see the euro already above 1.3100 level? Iwould say, the euro might challenge 1.3000 and top at 1.3200 depends on the situation evolved.

Chicago Goofy 07:18 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Cross pairs dominate today. Look E/G and A/N.

hk ab 07:14 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
bc// How do you read ECB's view on current euro levels? No big deal with tthem at all? thanks.

Tokyo IM 07:12 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Cable longed it and got out due to the indicators showing against my plan. +5 pips - better then nothing.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:41 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:27 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
anyone started?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:00 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
eur 1.3025

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:55 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
http://kalzayani.freewebsites.com/today.htm

hk mom 05:53 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
I will sell euro with the same plan with vv.

gold coast martin 05:48 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
LTN TH....FWIW..RBA TRADE WEIGHTED INDEX TWI 63.3 today as opposed to 63.1 from fridays closing........g/t

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:45 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
I think Cable is short at 1.8627 in two hours

hk ab 05:36 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Revdax// That cycle day count need to restart again, right?

Rye, NY et 05:30 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY et 19:55 GMT November 5, 2004
Short EUR/USD 1.2944; cut 1.3027;take 1.2585

Add:Short EUR/USD 1.2971; cut 1.3027;take 1.2585

Auckland S.C. 05:25 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Wait another 24 hrs, it would be clear and make decision

hk ab 04:53 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Rf//I will wait euro at 5 dma if I am brave to be a buyer.

hk ab 04:52 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp 0.7 is too important.
It could bring the euro into the new phase together.
It seems aud and nzd are having flu.
Take the gbp maybe better?

Tokyo IM 04:38 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips // did you get my comment about Nikkei ?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 04:25 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
My orders for today
Currency Short Long
EURUSD 1.3081 1.2576
USDJPY 107.3752 104.0975
GBPUSD 1.8666 1.8157
USDCHF 1.2162 1.1637
EURCHF 1.5390 1.5157
AUDUSD 0.7664 0.7333
USDCAD 1.2386 1.1927
NZDUSD 0.7136 0.6775
EURGBP 0.7044 0.6876
EURJPY 137.9269 133.4018
GBPJPY 196.8674 191.8481
CHFJPY 90.4497 87.2277
GBPCHF 2.2259 2.1605
EURAUD 1.7319 1.6817
EURCAD 1.5808 1.5383
AUDCAD 0.9260 0.9014
AUDJPY 80.7862 77.7530

Auckland S.C. 04:03 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
That's exactly what I am waiting for... second peak. If... the EUR downturn soon.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:45 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

HK [email protected] 03:39 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
No one has anything to say about gold??
At these record highs?

Syd 02:36 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
December rate hike expected by HSBC has now been taken off table, says bank's Australian chief economist John Edwards. The statement was written before the U.S. jobs surge. A markedly higher trajectory is now tipped for AUD/USD which will bear down on import price growth. HSBC doubts a tightening will be seriously debated much before June, perhaps not even then

HK [email protected] 02:32 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 00:41 GMT November 8, 2004

The deficit story is not a new one, so I can estimate that all the smart money is already long. Indeed record long positions.
It means also record shorts(ZERO SUM).
Those who are in, are waiting for those who are still out, ready to add more longs.
So if we are at a record high of open interests one must be careful. What worries me is that the shorts may be held mostly by organized commercials, and if the market will not move up by fresh buying, and the Comm. will decide to let the market down before they enter buying, then I think there may be a big hole in the price action(and tempo. the deficit will be forgotten).
I will keep my bullish view for Euro(target about 1.58) all the time it will not come down below about 1.18.

Ina co'Z 02:28 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
my friend alimin..what is you have for daily resistance cable ?..TIA ! :-))

LA fxnew 02:22 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
well alimin:
thats true that I have taken a position, but exchange opinion is good as I can be extremely careful why ppl suggest his advice so...

Sydney Alimin 02:13 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 01:54 GMT November 8, 2004

patience patience patience, you have entered a short cable a while ago too, so what else do you want to hear? of course you want cable to go down, right? sit back and relax a bit, even market needs to relax at times you know

Ina co'z 02:12 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Hello all...
my little opinions for intraday cable resistance 1.8560 and support at 1.8463..GL/GT !

Hong Kong Qindex 02:12 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
USD Index : The market hit the low and high at 84.03 and 85.09 respectively in the last trading session in New York. It seems to me that Curve A of My Quarterly Cycle is still in control. A projected barrier is expected at 83.76 and a projected supporting level is positioning at 81.11 - 82.43. If the market can overcome the projected resistance at 85.08, USD Index can easily retrace back to 86.40 which is the key quantized level (the common factor in all my curves) of my Quarterly Cycle.

Melbourne Qindex 22:43 GMT November 3, 2004
USD Index : The market is trapped in a projected range of 84.42 - 84.81. A projected supporting point is located at 83.76. Projected resistant points are expected at 85.08 and (86.4) which is the key quantized level.

Melbourne Qindex 21:25 GMT October 31, 2004
USD Index : the current expected trading ranges from my Quarterly cycle are as follow :-


Curve A : ... // 81.11* - 83.76 - 85.08 - (86.40) - 87.73 - 89.05 - 91.69* // ...


Curve B : ... // 83.22* - 84.81 - (86.40) - 87.98 - 89.57* // ...


Curve C : ... // 82.43* - 84.42 - (86.40) - 88.38 - 90.36* // ...

LA fxnew 01:54 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
so .. anybody has any idea where cable is going to go ?
Forum is so quiet today!

Thanks

Ldn 01:40 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Macquarie Research advises against standing in way of bearish USD momentum, but still holds view that "on a fundamental basis," USD fall overdone: "We'll repeat that we are talking 4% growth in the U.S. next year, versus 2% in Japan and Europe. We're talking Fed funds at 3-3.5% by mid-2005 versus no change in Europe or in Japan. We would like to think a U.S. rate hike this week will remind of this reality." Still, "it'll only matter if the market wants to hear the story. And for the moment, there's no sign of that.

LA fxnew 01:23 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
short cable .. target 18350

Sydney Ge11Ja 01:14 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
RBA and Govt both saying this morning that rates are on hold for a long while (projections are for inflation to only hit 2.5% by end 05). Oil lower this morning and jgb yields higher. I am short aud/yen looking for test back towards 80.00

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:05 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate 20:05 GMT November 7, 2004//Not sure what you meant but yes, "lil guys" like me will be Euro bullish until the bullpen is empty. Then we'll be bears to short short short that Euro. Whenever the chart says, that will be. Just that simple. Besides it's OK for el Euro Torro to have a little fun and run, afterall he's going to the 18 month USD bullfight 2nd Qtr next year. And you know how bullfights go...to MacDonald's. GT amigo.

perrie como 00:50 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
It's seems me the market today will not do much

Maybe tomorrow better

g/l

nite

hk mom 00:42 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
gecko// fat is fun! small fishes are chasing the 1.32 jackpot.
where is hk grandpa ?


van Gecko 05:46 GMT November 6, 2004
hk mom 15:55.. good to hear you are now fat.. some real money m/t players practice staying fat in FX by learning to be patient & never chase the market at extremes..
Even tho it looks like the Dollar had easily 'sliced' through the 84.50 support on a good NFP Friday, not sure how much m/t real money was behind this move.. so be patient & let the market come to your comfort levels over the next weeks; add/reload on bounces in front of 86.50.. and if the Dollar is still under 85 by this time next week, add/reload on bounces in front of 84.50..
there will be many chances for discipline dollar bears to get fat trading their favriote pairs upon a confirmed break of 84.50..
have a nice w/e..

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:41 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
BTW I don't see anything wrong with assuming a stop hunt all the way to 1.2900. My Eruo possie was added to Friday at 1.2900 (from orig possie of 1.2420) just for kicks to see if this plane will fly to 1.30+ this week. I doubt I'll close..maybe will add more Euros at 1.3025-50 for tgt 1.3150.Again, I will negate all US data completely as the deficits are driving the boat at this point. To wit Friday's E/$ dipsey doodle..recouped in an hour to continue right along the same slope it was climbing as if no data was given at all. FORGET U.S. DATA for now as it's not what big money is looking at."We're not in Kansas any more Toto". Data will be handy again after 1st Q 05 (maybe). If E/$ chart dips on good data it's an artificial consolidation (i.e. stop hunt) and isn't anything more than petty mkt hype.

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:32 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 00:12 GMT November 8, 2004// Not only a string of good US data but several months at least of good data..& I mean GOOD data is needed, IN ADDITION TO substantial reduction of double deficit AND visibly proving to the world the US is eliminating the things (not just words "we're gonna do it") which caused the deficits to get out of hand in the first place. Solidarity (as in real solid) will take I estimate into 2nd Q next year, then you can expect a level off followed by a complete turn around, retracement back to 2002 in the same amount of time (18 mos) IF the USA "fills the bill" to the rest of the world's CBs liking & of course other big money.

Tokyo IM 00:31 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Goodmorning all.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:27 GMT November 7, 2004// I think around 11000 sounds resonable.

perrie como 00:28 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/911117.censored full article at <<

Bush's back; World, Inc. is happy
SANJEEV SHARMA AND SUMIT GULATI

TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 05, 2004 01:06:00 AM]
NEW DELHI: He’s known to zip around in his Gulfstream IV jet, spending 300 of the 365 days in a year looking for true value emerging markets. Part of a fund with a global asset base of $360bn, Mark Mobius, MD, Templeton Asset Management, is not known to mince words — whether on business opportunities or political risks.

The Economic Times caught up with the maverick ‘King of emerging markets’ for a tête-à-tête on what the US election results will come to mean for global business .

Mr Mobius feels that with Bush returning with a stronger mandate, one can now expect stability and continuity of economic policy. Further, he believes that Bush’s pursuit of an open trade policy will help India. Mr Mobius, who is here to meet distributors from all over Asia and to visit more Indian companies, spoke exclusively to ET on a number of issues ranging from Templeton’s global strategy to disinvestment of Indian PSUs .

While he admits that his investment strategy would not have changed very much even if Kerry had become the President, Mr Mobius expects Bush to move with much greater purpose in the second term. “The reaction of the stock markets should be positive. The administration will assess the mistakes made in the first term. He will also have to cut spending, which could lead to a stronger US dollar. That too will be good for India and Asian markets,” he said.

Even the high oil prices have failed to ruffle the man once referred to as the ultimate road warrior. “Oil prices will correct as they already have over the past few days, however, one must realise that oil and commodity prices are now going to settle to a new plateau,” he said. “From a range of $17-18, oil companies are now planning the future in the $20-25 range.”

HK [email protected] 00:19 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Some common thinking.

Hmmmmmmmm the projected target of 1.3000 even 1.3050 were not yet reached.
I still have chance to join the Euro train on a pullback to get my share in the Euro party. I think someting like 1.2930/40 will do.

HK [email protected] 00:12 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 00:07 GMT November 8, 2004

I agree that a series of good data is better than one piece.
The point is, that markets are sometimes ahead discounting prices B4 stream of good data is established.

For this morning simple observation shows the market is hesitant so am I...Sideline.

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:07 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
Chicago JMI 23:43// Yep. 1.2935-25 in fact would be a very good stop stripper just to make sure it got them all in one fell swoop.

LDN// ref: dangerous dollars
I posted earlier "today" around 9 hrs ago what's up w/ USD & why..take a peek. Sum it up: there isn't going to be any strength for USD untill & unless the X2 deficit is showing good signs of rectification. Bring your lunch, it'll take a while. Otherwise expect USD to nest at 1.32, then inch up higher to 1.35..some say 1.39-40. It isn't bad, it's good..helps USA get those exports sold to bring the T/D down, incomes up, tax revenue up and hopefully the spending deficit diluted.

It doesn't matter what sort of good news comes between now and New Year, USD has got to show inner strength, not just jobs numbers or any other numbers, or it won't shine. US just said it had X new jobs, yet at the same time they said they had Y out of work. Doesn't add up to me nor to big money...something's amiss or someone's lieing.

If GWB & Co. just put that wallet away the spending deficit will self rectify..but down at the Saddham Stadium, Jihads VS Friendlies isn't going so well, costing the the club financers bajillions of bucks daily, no end in sight. All of a sudden if the coach & club end the game the spending deficit gets benched, el coach-o breathes a sigh of relief, the exports will reduce the T/D back home, the players go to the showers & the club can go to another game either in Iran, Syria or N. Korea. In the words of Papa Bush., "Read my lips:" USD value is inversely proportional to the combined double deficits' values. At least 4 months of very solidly good US econ data is what big money wants to see, AND the deficits being paid down. Both.


8-Nov Monday All times GMT es=estimate pr=previous
Today's skeet shoot:
8-Nov AUD Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Statement 0:30
Mon AUD ANZ JOB Advertisements OCT 0:30 pr-1.8%
CHF Unemp Rate OCT 6:45 es=3.8% pr=3.7%
CHF Unemp Rate sa OCT 6:45 es=3.9% pr=3.9%
EUR Blmberg EZ Retl PMI SA OCT 9:00 pr=48.8
EUR Blmberg Fr Retl PMI SA OCT 9:00 pr=48.5
DEM Blmberg Retl PMI SA OCT 9:00 es=50.0 pr=50.4
EUR Blmberg Ital Retl PMI SA OCT 9:00 es=47.0 pr=46.6
GBP PPI Input s.a. MoM OCT 9:30 es=2.0% pr=1.3%
GBP PPI Input s.a. YoY OCT 9:30 es=7.00% pr=7.4%
GBP PPI Output n.s.a. MoM OCT 9:30 es=0.3% pr=0.3%
GBP PPI Output n.s.a. YoY OC 9:30 es=3.2% pr=3.1%
GBP PPI Output s.a. ex. FBTP YoY 9:30 es=2.4% pr=2.2%
GBP ODPM UK House Prices YoY SEP 9:30 es=13.1% pr=13.6%
CAD Housing Starts OCT 13:15 es=225k pr=231k
CAD BOC Longworth Speaks 16:50
JPY Money Supply M2+CD YoY OCT 23:50 es=2.2% pr=2.1%
JPY Broad Liquidity YoY OCT 23:50 es=3.3% pr=3.3%
JPY Bank Lending YoY OCT 23:50 es=3.3% pr=3.3%
GT amigos.

Hong Kong Qindex 00:02 GMT November 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is going to consolidate between 1.2954 - 1.2973 for the time being. Is the market going to charge ahead towards the upper trading range of 1.3143 - 1.3293 or retreats back to thge supporting range of 1.2653 - 1.2766? See details in my page.


Melbourne Qindex 21:48 GMT October 30, 2004
EUR/USD : The current expected trading ranges from my Quarterly Cycle are as follow :-


Curve A : ... // 1.2332* - 1.2653 - 1.2973* // 1.3293 ...

Curve B : ... // 1.2412* - 1.2813 - 1.3214* // ...

Curve C : ... // 1.2389* - 1.2578 - 1.2766* - 1.2954 // 1.3143...

 




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