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Forex Forum Archive for 11/09/2004

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Dallas GEP 23:55 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Sorry GBP is heavier than EURO

Dallas GEP 23:55 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
GBP is much heavier than GBP right now because of eur/gbp longs and usd/chf shorts

Syd 23:50 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Fed to hike short-term interest rates to 3% or 4% next year, ex-Atlanta Fed chief William Ford saying and that FOMC to hike to 2% later in day which is common knowledge , with another 25 bps in December, depending on payrolls data early next month

london 23:30 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
London - the one aspect that economists don't seem to count on is the simple pleasure of watching the EU squirm when the euro goes up

and dont they deserve it stuff em

Syd 23:28 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP I dont expect it to go much below 75 the first time around too many ready to buy dips . The impression I have for what its worth, we are going to see a dip across the board just to get the CB of the FX markets back once it happens , the market will make a run for 130 euro 188 GBP etc etc from then out say 135 you will see the CB get serious .

Boston mpd004 23:28 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
short gbp/usd 8560

Dallas GEP 23:24 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Well AUSSIE looks like excellent short from 7620 IF it sees it.

Halifax CB 23:15 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
London - the one aspect that economists don't seem to count on is the simple pleasure of watching the EU squirm when the euro goes up. That's worth a few pips to some folks, one would believe (especially some rather powerfulk ones). Ditto for CAD

Sydney Ge11Ja 23:13 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja 23:10 GMT November 9, 2004

Ooops wrong syd sorry

Sydney Ge11Ja 23:10 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 23:09 GMT November 9, 2004

The aud I expect to trade down to test 0.7400, not too sure of time frame.

Dallas GEP 23:09 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
SYD, are you then expectinthe AUSSIE to short and to what level???

Boston mpd004 23:03 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Key word there is: HE. As Powell has stated many times, he serves at the PLEASURE of the President.

Syd 23:03 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Australian home lending expected to show number of housing-finance approvals fell in September which will RBA more reason not to raise rate any time soon. 1.0% fall in owner-occupied housing finance approvals in September from August is expected ,data out 0030 GMT

Dallas GEP 22:58 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
My Bostonian friend is absolutely correct. No doubt the purpose of that FIRST cabinet meeting the other day was to determine who would wish to serve on and who might wish to move on to other things. Then GWB could then accept those resignations of those who HE may have wished to move on.

Boston mpd004 22:53 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
As a matter of custom, every cabinet member must tender their resignation on the re-election of the President. Then it's up to the President to accept them or not. Looks like he accepted them.

Sydney Ge11Ja 22:49 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
us attny gen Ashcroft and Commce Secy Evans have just resigned

london 22:49 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
A substantial number of analysts, believe the dollar has gone pretty much as low as it can against the euro for the time being. Oil is one reason. The price of front-month crude contracts was recently at $47.28 per barrel, around 15% off its highs of early November. Since many analysts agree that an oil price above $50 was pivotal to the recent bout of dollar weakness, falling oil prices must at some point start supporting the dollar, they say. They also point to the current economic context - including the strong U.S. employment number last Friday and the rate-tightening cycle - and contrast that with economic news from Europe and Japan. Andy Busch, global foreign exchange strategist at Nesbitt Harris in Chicago, said gross domestic product data on Thursday from Japan and Germany could come in surprisingly weak and that may shift the market's focus back to problems in those economies and away from the all the talk about the deficit. Moreover, the ECB failed to raise rates Thursday or indicate it was about to do so, while almost nobody expects a Bank of Japan rate rise for some time to come. But the overriding reason for skepticism about a further dollar fall comes is the jawboning from euro zone officials and the lingering shadow of intervention. A key point came Monday, when European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet replaced his calm comments about dollar weakness and spoke of a "brutal" appreciation. Trichet's comments, which echoed similar remarks in January at the height of European efforts to talk down the euro, placed the Europeans firmly alongside Japanese officials, who have been saying for weeks now that they will intervene to weaken the yen if it veers from economic "fundamentals." While many analysts believe the intervention hasn't yet been reached, there is a recognition that with the ECB and the BOJ singing the same song and the Bush administration hardly trying to resist fresh dollar weakness, jawboning could provide a major obstacle to fresh weakness Reuters newswire

SAIHAT As_Time_passing_i_am_happy_&_ i_will_ old 22:36 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   

some time entry

+/-10

Sydney Ge11Ja 22:31 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 22:26 GMT November 9, 2004

you might get that level in the fix today in Tokyo, there has been a few importer orders last few days that have given usd/yen a bid tone in the fix

Dallas GEP 22:26 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
YEP, good point RE: eur/JPY. I was thinking we MORE likely will see 136.40 than 136.55 anyway really. Of course in a way I would LIKE to see e/y @ 136.40 anyway as it might give eur/usd a little push up

Sydney Ge11Ja 22:23 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 22:05 GMT November 9, 2004

Or sell here with same s/l just 1/2 the position!

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 22:13 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
1.2866 1.2934

entry +/-5

may work may not




stop loss +/-5

1.2838 1.2962

Mla Evan 22:07 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Revdax, are you still short Euro from Mon highs? if yes, what is your target?

Dallas GEP 22:05 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
GE11JA....YES EXACTLY!!!! Eur/jpy would be a gREAT sell IMO @ 136.55 stop 136.85 take profit 135.62

Halifax CB 21:59 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
jeez, my typing sux this time of night. sorry. But the pinot noir is good :)

Halifax CB 21:57 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
That's ture Sallas, but if you have an adverse dealer, you may not get your TP point either, since it just becomes a market order when that point is reached. Soem dealers are better than others. BTW - I've found it to be a good range trading type of day today in EUR/USD, GBPUSD, and USDCAD, trading off variations from the modal points in the histograms; relatively low risk, but about as exciting as watching paint dry, since it means babysitting the trades...GL/GT.

Sydney Ge11Ja 21:53 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
The trade that stands out to me is short eur/yen. Oil looks like its going to 40$, ecb calling on others to bear brunt of weak usd (IE Asia IE Japan) and the crosses inability to break and hold 137.00 just say 132.50-133.50 to me

I also cant work out AUD. Maybe gold providing it support or some M&A flows but everything else says lower in my opinion. Might be profitable to sell towards 0.7620-30 with a stop above Monday's high.

GL and GT

Dallas GEP 21:52 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
BTW, although I am LONG euro NOW, 1.2930-1.2940 area is an EXCELLENT short opportunity

Dallas GEP 21:49 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Word of caution, seems some of the platforms are not allowing you to get out of possies at market but are delaying to the extent they will get you out after a pause and coincidently a LESS favorable price. It is best in those cases to just run a trailing stop for profit once you are up in the possie to your acceptable target area. For instance I currently have a TP @ 1.2917 on my euro long because if the market were to hit 1.2917 only momentarily I probably could not MANUALLY take profit at that level.

Boston mpd004 21:42 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
If these ppl who go through all the trouble of creating these viruses just to screw with peoples heads, they could save a lot of time and effort by just introducing people to the forex.

GVI john 21:37 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Anti-virus software maker McAfee Inc. is warning about a new version of the Mydoom worm that infects computers of people who click on a link in e-mail they receive.

The new version is a mass-mailing worm that does not contain an attachment, as some earlier versions of the worm program have done.

A worm is a self-replicating computer program that -- like a computer virus -- can cause damage to a computer's software by attaching itself to programs.

Some of the e-mail transmissions appear to be from PayPal, the online payment system that is part of eBay Inc. (Research). The text of the e-mail includes the following:

"Congratulations! PayPal has successfully charged $175 to your credit card. Your order tracking number is A866DEC0, and your item will be shipped within three business days.

"To see details please click this link."

Dallas GEP 21:29 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Ok I have looked over charts on EURo specifically and I think we can expect some shorts tonight but PROBABLY not prior to a 1.2920-1.2930 print. Watch usd/chf as a leading indicator as it probably will not long much past the 1.1835-40 area at THIS time . I beleive we will see 1.1810 area on CHF as well before USD starts to significantly long

NewYork frankie 21:25 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
for the sake of my "live" trading journal I still have my Aussie shorts open waiting to close at 7570 and of course my Euro shorts. I say this because I'm off to the bar for a few hours to get liberated.LOL

TAL 21:13 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
It seems to me that EURUSD market is really afraid of the same snapbacks it experienced on October 28th and November 5th. I would say 1.2940 turns mkt bullish (intraday sentiment). Prefer wait and see now.

Ltn th 21:09 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
TAL, LOL. I was thinking more of real money traders. Sharks dont like to go against them front on. A lot of big real money trades can wait for 11 am local times depending on their own bureacuratic dynamics. Lots of this sort of money moving in the market just now. A lot through banks which is why we have seen some misleading comments from them.

TAL 21:04 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
world time zones by city http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/

BEIRUT MK 21:04 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
GEP: eurusd will test 1.2920 soon

TAL 21:02 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th ..re your post "larger insist at 10" ..note big sharks never sleep...:-)

San Diego DC 21:01 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th ,
Thanks a lot.

Ltn th 21:00 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
sorry later in NZ possibly 9 or 10. not sure of difference.

Dallas GEP 21:00 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Well TAl confidence is no guarantee of success but our views are tested every day. The confidence comes when you are more often right than wrong but the market can be quite humbling at times for sure. The stop on this possie TENCHICALLY should be 1.2877 but really once you are 10-15 pips down, consideration should be given for a close.

Ltn th 20:59 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Varies 2 hours with daylight savings coming on and off each end. I would say 2100 gmt now. or 2300 in your summer. as earlier traders start ard 9 am local time with larger instits at 10. Currently 8 am EDT in Australia and earlier in NZ

TAL 20:59 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
SYD 7:58 am now, they should be in

San Diego DC 20:57 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP and TAL,
Thank you

TAL 20:55 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, what is it in GMT?

TAL 20:54 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
my guess is 2100 gmt....can anyone from Australia confirm that?

Dallas GEP 20:54 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
7:00 PM eastern time is START of ASIAN trading session

TAL 20:53 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, first time I hear such a confident trader. Wish u a good luck

San Diego DC 20:51 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Can someone tell me what time is considered to be the beginning of the Asia session ? TIA

Dallas GEP 20:51 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
I am not saying an order even 1000 times that size could move market, I am saying that IMO I am fairly certain the market will give me 1.2911 to 1.2916 BEFORE breaking support at 1.2880.

TAL 20:47 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP ...about 100 lots ...correct me if I'm wrong but 100 lots is 10mio .....it's a peanuts amount if you propose 10mio can push the market 15 pips in your favor

KL KL 20:45 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
The game is simple let the rally run and cut the loss short...fewer pips are taken because the rally bar is ranging 30-35...do it a few time in the short time frame and the pips works out more than longer term. That also depends on market volitility...the short trade works best in very volitile market when every one has a fear of some sort

TAL 20:44 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP ...if I may ask where are your stops if you hunt for 15 pips?

Dallas GEP 20:43 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
REVDAX, depends on the lot size.....100 lots or more and 10-15 pips will work

TAL 20:42 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax, only the market makers conrtolling the flows can do it. The ordinary "mortal" traders :-) are wiped off doing this in a long term. Only matter of time.

hk revdax 20:39 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
TAL//Do people actually trade for 10-15 pips in Euro and make money over the longer run?

NewYork frankie 20:38 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
London Alex, I'm sure you'll get 1.2800. Btw, as mentioned wgile posting my euro trades, I'm out at 1.2930 so current worse case senario is -37 pips on averaged lots. Thats not too bad for a positional trade offering the potential of 95 pips. In this game you have to have a game plan and stick by it. I have mine and so far its works for me, particularly my stops.

TAL 20:38 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax, if I may on 15 pips profits.......May opinion is avoid them. the best one can do is move stop loss to break even levels if mkt moved 15 pips in his/her favor. Better a small loss than loosing oportunity on a big swing.

London Alex 20:38 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Too true TAL...well, I've had a good session today and off to get some exercise...see you all around and GT

TAL 20:35 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
London Alex, on the other hand NY Frankie has a stop 1.2930. It is not a big loss (hope leverage is not 400:1). So we wish him a good luck. However, the odds are against him I think.

hk revdax 20:33 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 20:14 GMT//You wrote:"Long EURO 1.2901 looking for 10-15 pips..."

Do people actually make any money from this kind of intraday trading? TIA

London Alex 20:31 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
New York Frankie - Like Tal said earlier, you are trying to catch a falling knife, and I don't know of manytraders who have come out of that without bloodying their hands (myself included)...it seems to be that eur is especially well bid in the Asian session these days so you may wish keep that in mind...That being said, I wouldn't mind a move to 1.28 myself, it would give me a chance to relong on euro....

KL KL 20:30 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd short 1.8573 - 4 pip...not thinking well - reshort higher!!

As for Arafat, he can die or live in coma with his rumoured 6 billions. His wife Suha get 150K a month on money intended for the so called freedom fighters children. Perhaps it is time those sick terrorist OPEN their eyes, lay down their arms and re-examine their cause. I never like him, he is a terrorist and terrorises his own people with poverty via his vast wealth. I hope the CRAP goes on...and they keep him alive....that will bring out the real cause of these PLO fighters....$$$$$. ha ha

Syd 20:18 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
One thing for sure with Arafat gone the fear of Israeli Prime Minister killing him, which would have been far worse than his natural demise which in itself is good for the Middle East conflict. When there were reports that Arafat's condition had worsened oil prices tumbling so someone must be happy

KL KL 20:16 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8568..100% rate rise in nov and 40% in dec...no reason to long at the moment except for pip raiding

Calabash TarHeel 20:16 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
st. pete islander 20:02 GMT November 9, 2004
Will be interesting to see which way London goes. Wondering if big money Euro bulls will try one last run up to provide them a better selling level. I'm sitting on my hands until sometime in the morning. Anticipate having some orders in, maybe they'll hit, maybe not.
Calling it a day. Errands to run, etc. Have yourself a pleasent evening.
Take Care

NewYork frankie 20:15 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Sorry AGAIN. I think they say in England "putting my money where my mouth is" LOL

Dallas GEP 20:14 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Long EURO 1.2901 looking for 10-15 pips

TAL 20:14 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
NewYork frankie, I really wish u good luck, brave heart. :-)

NewYork frankie 20:13 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
putting my mouth where my money is. selling another lot at 1.2900 for 1.28. Stop on everything is at 1.2930.

SanFrancisco TG 20:13 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Short CAD from just below the figure, short Yen.

TAL 20:11 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
I agree with London Alex, there is a lot of real money accounts involved and they can move the mountains. So if one is bullish on USD stay out for now, wait, do not blow against the wind.

KL KL 20:11 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
in that case lock in 2 pip out long eur at 1.2903...reshort higher...now waiting for gold to drop

London Alex 20:08 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
New York Frankie - I think there are a number of things wrong with your statement on Eur/Usd. First off, there is a tremendous overhang of dollars in the market - nothing else explains friday's stunning drop on the back of strong US data. Furthermore, European multinational demand for 05 hasn't even entered the market yet and usually comes in strong Dec and Jan. Finally, China has been aggressively trying to diversify its fx holdings. Even state-owned newspapers have been discussing the dangers of dollar exposure, thus the authorities are clearly aware of the problem and trying to fix it. Ultimately any technical/spec driven corrections will spark significant buying interest to bring us back to current levels, and soon towards $1.35.

TAL 20:07 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
NewYork frankie, so far no signs of weakness. Honestly, I do not fancy eurusd at these levels myself. However, there is no topping just yet. Would u really dear to catch the falling knife (falling dollar)? Better to pick it from the floor later.

Barcelona Manuel 20:03 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Que?

st. pete islander 20:02 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
TarHeel .... nothing doing. Maybe tomorrow .... correction if the numbers are good and Sir Alan does his thing. Should be interesting .... one way or the other. gt.

NewYork frankie 20:02 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
sorry folks 1.2930 SL. Oil is down -1.79 to 47.30. Once everything starts to correct oil, gold, currencies et al, watch out. I think it would be quite fatuous to believe that leading world economies are going to let the dollar weaken to the detriment of their own economies. All this recent jawboning by finance ministers about the relative strength of the dollar is further indication a correction is on the cards. Besides, economic data coming out of Euroland does not support the Euro at current levels despite the US deficits. Finally, from a purely tech point of view, the Euro has to reenter the daily channel that its carved for itself over the last 2 months. If that is the case, then 1.2750 would actually be the first target with perhaps a full correction back to 1.2550.

Would anyone here really buy at the current price for a push up to 1.30+? I think that would smack of recklessness.

TAL 20:01 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
HK REVDAX, no indicators just chart. Indicators are derivatives of price moves. Why use them then? Candle charts are perfect and simple higher highs lower lows on the chart to define the trend.

BASEL FAULTY TOWERS 19:59 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
So, even now, seventy years on, every month a conclave of the highest fiat money cardinals on the planet gathers in camera there amid the Alps, to dispose of the fate of nations.

TAL 19:58 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Some statistics... since the break of 1.2460 level Eur/Usd had 5 down days (today is potentially 6th day). In every case 2 down days in a row were followed by upmove. Could it repeat the same pattern tomorrow (assume today it closes down)?

HK REVDAX 19:54 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
TAL 19:46//What are the good technical indicators you used for short term trading?

Calabash TarHeel 19:50 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
st. pete islander 19:42 GMT November 9, 2004
Hey Islander. How's everything in the Gulf? I'm a chocolate junkie. More disturbed if M&M's cost more than I am with the price of gas.
How's trading, nothing hit for me today.

TAL 19:49 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
NewYork frankie, better place sl at 1.2930 i/o 1.2830 :-)

Syd 19:49 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Cullen said "the persistent strength of the New Zealand dollar" and the rise in oil prices are "concerns" for the New Zealand economy. he was talking at a Federated Farmers National Council in Wellington
seems he is adding his voice to the many

NewYork frankie 19:47 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
I strongly believe we might have seen the Euro high for soe time to come. I have an initial projection of 1.28 over the next 2 days. I think its time for the Euro to correct some now. Selling at these levels with a stop at 1.2830 for a 90 pip return within the next two days is my preferred strategy right now.

TAL 19:46 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax, I have the same view: longer term views more difficult to forcast as more unexpected events might pop up along the way. I keep the view better to be an intraday trader for a loosing position. And long term trader for a winning position.

Syd 19:46 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   

CRB 283.36 -1.05
USD$ 84.22 +0.13
Bonds 112 00/32 +1/32
Crude Oil 47.48 -1.61
Nat. Gas 7.890 -0.209
Gold 435.2 +2.6
Dow Indu 10423.16 +31.85
S&P500 1166.92 +2.03
Nasdaq 2046.57 +7.32

hk revdax 19:42 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
TAL 19:20 GMT//Actually you are raising a very interesting point. That point is connected to daytrading as opposed to carrying trades over night. After all these years of trading experiences, I would say that short term trading is better than longer terms, for the simple reason that one could more easily see what lies ahead during the day as opposed to what lies ahead the day after....imo

st. pete islander 19:42 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
TarHeel ... only that all those things cost more .... what's new?!

TAL 19:41 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
to KL, still few hours to go....However, SYD, TYO will see eur/usd at lows for a second day. A bit nervous situation for them

Calabash TarHeel 19:38 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Well the Dow is up. Crude is down. Cocca futures up.
Lets see if the price of choclate has any effect on the currency market.
gl,gt

KL KL 19:38 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
long eurusd 1.2901...cannot seem to let me get in lower also time for NY to close shop?? btw what time do they close shop...is it pass their trading time??

Syd 19:35 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
It seems NZ Fin Min out this morning jawboning the NZD saying that it is showing signs of being at or near its peak

Syd 19:32 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
London Geda Canada are a large producer of oil hence revenue

Ldn 19:31 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
A protracted period of dollar weakness may have an unusually low impact on the deficit, because Asia makes up 60% of the trade imbalance, the dollar is unlikely to fall much against Asian currencies.

London Geda 19:30 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Syd, would you pls explain me the relation between Cad and Oil,,,
i really dont understand this thing
TIA
Geda

TAL 19:26 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Very interesting situation in the market. US 10 yr yields around 4.2% (month ago 4%), equities up after elections, oil below 50, payrolls big surprise. Most important 90% of traders call euro higher... magic phrase "it's a matter of time only"......Could it be the end of euro's luck?

Dallas GEP 19:25 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Well FXNEW, that is not a bad thing. I just have a rule that if things don't move within 1-2 hours I will close a possie generally if it is positive.

Syd 19:25 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
A move above those levels will signal a short-term bottom is in place and retracement for CAD with oil prices today fell over a dollar and a half to $47.50 today, down 15% from the
$55.75 highs back on October

LA Fxnew 19:23 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
GEP is more like KL now .. out with very few pips ..

TAL 19:20 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
to HK REVDAX, do not listen to anyones advise. If one knew how low, he/she would be a millionaire next month. Trust no one.....opinions are confusing.

Plovdiv Gotin 19:16 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Revdax/ 1.2658.

Dallas GEP 19:13 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Got out at +2 on Aussie short. GOLD is up so that maybe what keeps AUSSIE here for the time being I dunno.

HK REVDAX 19:10 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone tell me how low Euro could go before resuming its current upmove again? TIA

KL KL 18:53 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
JHB JW, by the end of the year all 4 you see on the left of this page!!

KL KL 18:50 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
ok out gbpusd short 1.8462 +10 ok start for the day ...reshort higher. With gold that high,I dare not short Kangaroo Aussie...prefer to long the deep dip!!
btw thx GEP for info.

NewYork frankie 18:49 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Closed Euro shorts + 15 leaving my Aussie shorts open now TPing 7570. However, I'm playing this one by ear.

JHB JW 18:47 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
KL KL, which trading platform do You use,GLGT

MEDAN FATGUY 18:44 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 18:17 GMT November 9, 2004
Thanks
I heard wise words" Trend is ur friend but dont marry the trend".

KL KL 18:41 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8572...

Dallas GEP 18:36 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
FATGUY: Trend is your friend but it is time for some USD buyers to come in at least on a very short term basis.

MEDAN FATGUY 18:27 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 18:17 GMT November 9, 2004

What do u think the usd? Is it still bearish?

Trend is ur friend untill it....

Dallas GEP 18:17 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
shorted AUSSIE .7605 should see .7578 stop above today's high

Dallas GEP 18:08 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
KL 1.8516

KL KL 18:03 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Was low of gbpusd in the last 5 hours 1.8520??

London Geda 18:00 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
sorry for typo error,,,
i meant 7670 as my target in AUDUSD
srry for inconvenience

NewYork frankie 18:00 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
sold Euro again at 1.2912 and more aussie ay 7608

London Geda 17:58 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
just my two cents..
all major currencies are due for a negative divergence (if new highs to be made within two days).
it is that type of trade i like...
Long AUD , with 7770 target, take profit and reverse...
same applies on EUR, and GBP,, but AUD is the clearest picture that i have in hand right now..
stops should be placed below days low...
gd lk all

Dallas GEP 17:56 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Closed GBP shorts @ 1.8570, closed usd/chf longs @ +30

NewYork frankie 17:53 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
outta my Euo shorts + 30 waiting for Aussie to complete the double header!

SanFrancisco TG 17:51 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
The USD will begin to correct upward in a lagging fashion and very gradually with interest rates over time. This will help the global recovery to some extent. The real problem with the EU economy is its rigidity and structural makeup, as noted today by BOE's Gordon Brown. Italy's Bersculoni has called for some small tax cuts today, which wont do too much but it is a step forward in standing in the face of the EU agenda which is strangling the economies.

Bersculoni has no more mending to do with the EU than Bush, or Gordon Brown. Many millions of people think its the other way around. For instance, by employing a real agenda for growth, EU workers unions might go beyond just locking in jobs, it might actually stimulate "new" jobs, something perpetually lacking in the EU.

Germany's Schroeder has met crushing resistance unfortunately for his urgent calls for reform last week. It is clear that no matter what course the USD takes, the EU economy will continue to be rigid, frigid, and underperforming until structural change takes root.

Regarding trades. My expectation of $Yen to remain within 105.15 and 106.00 this morning was accurate but lack of activity confined the pair even further. I see a good buy on an intra basis into asia as it is clear the market is apprehensive to push the pair below todays lows.

$CAD has been confined but active and has yielded 40 pips for me today. Logic would dictate ranging trades off the highs and lows +/- into tomorrow unless a change is obvious.

london 17:42 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Market should have factored in Arafat it isnt as if its not expected.

Syd 17:34 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
MACQUARIE Airports yesterday confirmed it had lodged the winning $1.26 billion bid for a 70 per cent slice of Brussels airport

Rye, NY et 17:29 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
london 17:23 GMT November 9, 2004
Yes, pushing hard (look at the late Friday price action). Why make a nickel, when you can make a dime? Also, thanks for the article. That reflects part of what I was referring to as "political problems" but, also, the simple fact is that Mr. Bush needs to do some serious fence-mending in Europe. All, of course, IMHO...(now i've really got to get out of here for a run) Nice talking to you, london...

syd 17:28 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Palestinian Min says Euthanasia For Arafat "Ruled Out"

london 17:25 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
With the combination of CB intervention the amount of specs in the market now buying at such levels , could get very bloody with erratic flows what a nightmare

london 17:23 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY et your correct, the market positioning also coming up to the xmas break seems as if Certain players are trying to push extremes now to get the most of the move

london 17:19 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
LONDON (Reuters) - European policy makers voiced growing fears on Tuesday that the dollar's slide against Europe's single currency may jeopardize global recovery. As the dollar traded near record lows against the euro, the European Commission warned that sharp exchange rate moves were bad for growth. It said the issue was certain to figure at next week's meetings of euro zone finance ministers ECB NOT HAPPY The euro hit a record high against the dollar on Monday of $1.2985 but has since fallen below $1.29 following a survey showing German business confidence slumping to its worst level in two years as the strength of the currency hit exports.
German Economy Minister Wolfgang Clement said in Berlin that the European Central Bank (ECB) would pay close attention to moves in the exchange rate and would be ready to act if necessary. The ECB is certainly not happy. "It would not be desirable that the appreciation of the euro should continue, still less that it should accelerate," ECB Governing Council member Guy Quaden told a Belgian newspaper on Tuesday. "The U.S. must reduce its budget and current account deficit as quickly as possible, European countries must raise their growth potential and Asian countries ease their exchange rate policy," he was quoted as saying. Japan, with a long history of intervention to stop the yen from appreciating, also hinted it would be ready to act if the dollar slide continued. "Our basic stance is to act in a timely way and decisively if movements deviate from fundamentals," Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said in Tokyo

Dallas GEP 17:19 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
OK got some more gbp/usd short from 1.8593

Rye, NY et 17:15 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
london 16:43 GMT November 9, 2004
Also, fwiw...
On the money flow side:Yesterday's 3-yr auction was well bid by cbs. The 5s and 10s go out today and tomorrow. Also, we can look for 25bps tomorrow. I think many major players will take Rubin's comments yesterday seriously. And, given the political problems above 1.3000, now is not the time for a major new low for the USD. Technically, the EUR/USD needs a small pullback to ard 1.2500/1.2600, then another push up to 1.3000 to (yet another) double top(early December), then a major correction back into the upper teens before the big move up into the 1.30s. I'm short now, will flip on the dip (no poetry intended) to 1.3000. Then, short again. GL/GT...

NewYork frankie 17:13 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
sold Euro and Aussie here. Aussie 10pip stop above current high. Euro stop 20pips above. Initial targets Euro 30 pips and Aussie 25pips. The market will be trapped in a narrow range until tomorrow lunchtime.

jkt-aye 17:12 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
What time the FOMC decision will be announce ? Thx

Ldn 16:49 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
(AP)IEA Executive Director Claude Mandil said prices should fall further given current supply-demand fundamentals barring unexpected supply shortfalls or an OPEC production cut.
"Even after falling under $50 a barrel, oil prices are much too high and do not correspond to the fundamentals. There is more supply than demand today. Prices should decline much further," Mandil told reporters after speaking to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange have slipped about $7 a barrel in the past four weeks as supply concerns eased. Mandil said OPEC should continue its "extremely good and responsible policy to maintain its output to let stocks be rebuilt."
Mandil also said the U.S. government should not tap its two-million barrel Northeast Heating Oil Reserve merely to bring down high heating bills. That is a position, he said, the Bush administration shared.

JHB AHG 16:49 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
gold=$435.61 last 1988

Dallas GEP 16:45 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
FOMC meeting tom should at least PRIOR to then lend itself to some usd bears squaring out but of course WHEN is the question. 1.86 on GBP and 1.18 on usd/chf are reversal points but whether of they reverse NOW is questionable. Possies around here should carry no more than a 15-20 pip stop

london 16:43 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY et agree with that real money wont buy at these level Gecko confirmed that last week has anyone else got an opinion on that ?

Rye, NY et 16:40 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 16:37 GMT November 9, 2004
Have a good workout. I'm out for a run. Best...

OK SZ 16:37 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY et 16:28 GMT November 9, 2004
Oh yes, very disappointing. no excuse for them to blow the lead like that. we are a bit chilly out here also. hope your trading is going well..as for me I am flat for the day and will see what tomorrow brings. have a great day..I am off to the gym

LA Fxnew 16:37 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
todays high for cable is printed at 8599.. .

Tokyo IM 16:34 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
I am off for today, this movements almost put me asleep. GL/GT all.

Dallas GEP 16:33 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Long 1.1801 on USD/CHF with 15 pip stop. IMO GBP is failing here

Santo Domingo tht 16:33 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Also Arafat's negotiations minister said he's alive, back to trading.
I'm long Euro tgt 1.32 and long AUD tgt .77+. Gd lk all.

Rye, NY et 16:32 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp KKVERM 16:15 GMT November 9, 2004
Since you asked, IMHO, definitely sub-(by at least five cents) 1.2200 before 1.3500 (middle of next year)....fwiw

london 16:32 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Yasser Arafat Death `Only A Matter Of Hours,'

Rye, NY et 16:28 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 16:19 GMT November 9, 2004
Getting cold up here. How about with you?..... I was talking about our favorite team, last Sunday. Didn't see it--heard about it.

Tokyo IM 16:24 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
I guess Cable is preparing to hit over 1.8600. I am dying to see if it will suceed or not.

Santo Domingo tht 16:20 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
But his foreign minister insists he is alive.

NewYork frankie 16:19 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Yep, whenever there's any shock to the system, political, social, economical etc, you can guaranteee the Euro the "Bad news barometer" to rear its ugly head. I would've thought that Arafat's death would be dollar positive, but again the markets know best, right?

OK SZ 16:19 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY hey how are things up in the great NE these days? what game we talking about?

Santo Domingo tht 16:15 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
AFX is reporting that Arafat has died. A member of his cabinet said "for sure he's dead, it's a question of when and how to announce it".

Antwerp KKVERM 16:15 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
What do you all think EUR/USD will do in the next few months. Do we see EUR/USD go to 1.35 or will we drop first to 1.25 or maybe 1.22

Anny comments on it.

Rye, NY et 16:14 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 16:07 GMT November 9, 2004
So, what happened in the second quarter?

OK SZ 16:07 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Typical inside day for the dow yesterday and looks that way for today also. Look for a rally starting tomorrow into thursday..

london phil 16:06 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
yasser arafat has a brain hemoredge bbc

sofia anmart 15:52 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD.We buy at the market for 0.7710

Dallas GEP 15:41 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Well Phil, I hope so but who knows. GBP seems to be only thing moving now. EVEN gbp/jpy TOTAL range has been 100 pips. HIGHLY unusual.

london phil 15:29 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
perfect double top on my chart dallas maybe this one will have some legs

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:29 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Good post Mex sjs. Again we think alike.
Dublin Flip// to amplify your post below about US econ, I've posted something on Help Forum a couple minutes ago which consolidates a bunch of views on the state of the US econ vs the USD price in what I've tried to make as understandable & non conflicting text with which few can argue. I see too many traders looking at last week's or this week's US data & last GDP report & what some Trichet or Greenspan type is jawing about rather than to see the overall general long term picture TO TRADE THE TREND. I see too many traders here saying "Hot dam man, that car looks fast, think it'll win the race!" instead of visiting the mechanic shop a few times to know what's really under the hood other than this week's new paint job.

Chicago CME 15:28 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
$/CAD: If 1.1975 area breaks, will 1.2250 be on the cards?

Dallas GEP 15:28 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
SHorted 1.8568 on GBP

mex sjs 15:22 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
don't know if there is going to be very volatile in the near future, but for those who believe that history repeats, here is some data regarding gbpusd behavior past 2003 from period sept-dec:
sept= 1,151 pips LOW= 1.5608
oct= 541 pips
nov= 710 pips
dec= 777 pips HIGH= 1.7942 TOTAL = 2,334 pips

2004
sept= 455 pips LOW= 1.7706
oct= 705 pips
nov= 317 pips (so far) HIGH= 1.8615 (so far) TOTAL = 909 pips

conclusion, under current circumstances when sentiment is vs usd, my personal believe is that we might witness gbpusd go all the way to 1.94-1.96 area by mid january.
after 1.85 was taken out...it is a non stop ride...hope to be right...
GT & GL

Dallas GEP 15:20 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Well had stop at BE on gbp/usd short and it just got snagged

Dallas GEP 15:11 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Shorted GBP @ 1.8555

Quebec Swap 15:04 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
moved my stop to even @1.2890 on EUR/USD since its going my way now.

LA Fxnew 14:57 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
doesnt it strange? cable is moving less than 100 pips today...so unusual..

Dallas GEP 14:50 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
My eur/gbp long wasn't going anywhere and with euro heavier than GBP IMO I closed that possie at BE earlier

Ldn 14:44 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
ECB board member Guy Quaden was quoted in the Belgian press as saying that "the governors of the ECB are against excessive volatility in the currency markets."
Again, last week Quaden had indicated that euro strength was no cause for concern as it hadn't damaged exports and had reduced the impact of high oil prices. Over the weekend, that view has changed. From these two comments, there can be little doubt that the ECB is unhappy with the high euro, or at least with the volatile upwards path it's taking. The E.U. Commission also threw its weight behind Trichet Tuesday. "The position of Mr. Trichet is shared by the Commission and member states," said Gerassimos Thomas, an E.U. spokesman. "Excessive volatility in the exchange rates is undesirable for economic growth." The results of Germany's ZEW survey, which measures sentiment among German companies, posted a surprisingly low reading of 13.9 in November, down more than 17 points on the previous month.
That additional evidence of a stumbling European economic recovery still struggled to shift the euro-dollar pair. $1.28 to $1.29 appears to be a fairly stable level for now.
Talk alone isn't going to be enough.


Dublin Flip 14:42 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Whatever the Q3 number (eventually it was retooled to 7.4% BTW), Annualized US GDP for 2003 was 3.0%. This was thankfully a better result than 2002’s 2.0%. The core PCE price index (AG's favorite inflation index) however also fortuitously came in at +1.2 percent for 2003. This was the slowest inflation advance since 1965’s 1.2 percent rise.

Just recently (2004) GDP has risen from 3.2% (Q2) to 3.7% (Q3). On the surface it sounds impressive yet this owes much (again) to the somehow statistical implosion (despite the backdrop of rising energy and commodities prices) of the PCE index from 3.2 (Q2) to 1.3 (Q3). Put simply, every 1% of understated inflation overstates GDP by 1% and vice versa. Therefore even a similar inflation performance of Q2 (i.e. another 3.2% figure) would have shaved the recent Q3 2004 GDP down from 3.7% to 1.8%.
You could believe deflation is the problem currently keeping central bankers up at night, therefore belief in the 3.7% GDP comes easy. I’d however suggest most people should find it incongruous to reconcile a savagely imploding inflation rate at the same time as Oil surged. Expect Q3 GDP to be retooled lower (as PCE deflator is restated higher) over the next couple of months unless alternately of course we have been entering a deflationary period that hasn't shown up anywhere on the radar.

Dallas GEP 14:38 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Dollar looks like it may rally some in US session. EURO seems more likely to short than GBP however at is this time

Illinois DB 14:38 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
TG we're not anti-US, we're anti-BS.

If it's not too much trouble TG, could you provide the forum with an explanation of your earlier post?

SanFrancisco TG 12:14 Still we recently saw a giant 8.2% GDP in the US. Just more fact that the US economy is strong.

Illinois DB 13:03 TG, where do you see 8.2% US GDP growth?

SanFrancisco TG 13:35 Record GDP was set some months ago. Were you not trading then?

Illinois DB 13:48 I did some trading last year TG, why do you ask? 8.2% was an annualized figure for one quarter only (2.05% actual growth), it was a preliminary number that was later revised down, and it was a YEAR ago. So I don't understand what makes that a "fact" of a "giant" number.

berlin otto 14:38 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Ok, ths

Quebec Swap 14:33 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Just long some EUR/USD at present levels but with a tight stop loss

berlin otto 14:30 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
What are you thinking about EUR/USD in coming hours?

PAR 14:30 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Best way to weaken Euro is to ask Germany to report economic and unemployment numbers more frequently.

Helsinki iw 14:30 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
A 25% bear market rally is pathetic considering the size of the drop and the amount of easy money Sir Alan has been pumping into the market.

Helsinki iw 14:26 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
TG what is the performance of those indices in 2004? Unchanged to slightly lower despite the roaring turnaround?
And while you are dishing out relevant eco-data, why dont you post their performance from the 2000 peak, when your hero took office?

SanFrancisco TG 14:21 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
I am expecting stocks to be under pressure today. However, as a few are calling this a turning point to major lows, I note the same people were saying the same before these facts became present, therefore until proven otherwise any US stock weakness I consider a healthy correction for PE ratios ...

US STOCKS

The Dow Jones closed up 25% for the year 2003, its best performance since 1996.

The S&P 500 closed up a very strong 25% for the year 2003.

The Nasdaq closed up a very strong 50% for the year2003.

The S&P Midcap Index closed the year at an all time high in 2003.

The Russell Index closed just 8% under its all time high set in 2000 in the year 2003.

Stockholm AGuy 14:13 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 14:06 GMT: "your endless anti-US economics propoganda is dense"

Would you care to point out which "propaganda" you are referring to? Or is this just another one of those statements which become "facts" in your mind?

SanFrancisco TG 14:06 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Factual errors? In whose mind? If you don't like the facts don't read them. Better yet, why don't you buy Euros based on Frances whopping 0.8% first half 2004 GDP.


My point is not to buy USD. My point is your endless anti-US economics propoganda is dense.

I repeat again, these facts are from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities....

US federal expenditures remain at relatively low levels by historical standards. Specifically, at 20.1 percent of GDP in 2003, federal expenditures —

* Were lower than in any year from 1975 through 1996.

* Were lower than the average level from 1970 through 2000 (which was 20.9 percent of GDP).

* Were significantly lower than the level of expenditures at corresponding periods of past business cycles (that is, during periods of economic slumps).

Expenditures averaged 21.4 percent of GDP in 1975/76, 22.3 percent in 1991/92, and 23.3 percent in 1982/83. In each of these three periods, the budget was suffering from the effects or after-effects of recession, as it is now. During such periods, federal expenditures rise as a share of GDP both because GDP is temporarily depressed and because expenditures for such programs as unemployment compensation are temporarily higher than normal.

Still we recently saw a giant 8.2% GDP in the US. Just more fact that the US economy is strong.

london xyz 14:03 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
San Fran

as witnessed during the reagan second term, a strong economy doesnt neccessarily equate to a strong or strengthening ccy. Please bear that in mind.


gd luck

Stockholm AGuy 13:55 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 13:50 GMT:

Pointing out your factual errors is brainwashing...? Wow, that's fair and balanced.

hk mom 13:54 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Take profit and reverse there. Short is still from 1.2930.

hk mom 13:54 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
euro is getting cheap at 1.2800.
BUY EURO!

Illinois DB 13:51 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm stop brainwashing TG! Can't you see he has a sensitive innocent mind? LOL

SanFrancisco TG 13:50 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Don't worry Stockholm. You'll have me brainwashed to believe the US economy is on the ropes in no time.

Illinois DB 13:48 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Stockholm.

SanFrancisco TG 13:35 Record GDP was set some months ago. Were you not trading then?

I did some trading last year TG, why do you ask? 8.2% was an annualized figure for one quarter only (2.05% actual growth), it was a preliminary number that was later revised down, and it was a YEAR ago. So I don't understand what makes that a "fact" of a "giant" number.

Stockholm AGuy 13:42 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 13:35 GMT:

Come on TG, you know what Illinois DB is saying. I pointed out the same thing last week, and you pretended not to get it then, just like you're pretending not to get it now. At least, I HOPE you're just pretending... you DO know the meaning of the word "annualized", don't you?

SanFrancisco TG 13:35 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Illinois DB 13:03 - Record GDP was set some months ago. Were you not trading then?

Alabaster bs 13:27 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Hello all, I just found your forum and what a great place to find information

HK [email protected] 13:19 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Time analysis is not easy, but if I'll see tonight Eur at 1.2850
It will not surprise me.

Livingston nh 13:15 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
GBP/CHF at 2.1930 might be worth a look to move to the 21 da mva around 2.21 - MACD looks to be turning up // if the swissy is just a temporary parking currency and not a destination currency some flow may begin moving into sterling // speculation about an ECB rate cut may be added to the verbal intervention after tomorrow's Fed meeting

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 13:11 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 00:15 GMT November 9, 2004

eur+chf

1.2881 1.2949

1.1782 1.1858


it works toady for 30 pips or so

Illinois DB 13:10 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Note re GDP below: See first row of Table 1.
Actual quarterly numbers are not on that page,
divide annualized rate by 4 to get actual quarterly growth.

HK [email protected] 13:05 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
AKL S.C. 13:02 GMT November 9, 2004

If so many people long it as you said (and I hope so) then that is the ideal time to run for your life.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:05 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Similarities to our present chart: 10/13 to now
1. 4/1/02 - 6/17/02
2. 11/28/02 - 1/28/03
3. 11/07/03 - 12/19/03
Each was a segment of a larger move involving 10-15 CENTS.

Dallas GEP 13:05 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Closed short gpd/usd @ +17

Illinois DB 13:03 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 12:14 Still we recently saw a giant 8.2% GDP in the US. Just more fact that the US economy is strong.
TG, where do you see 8.2% US GDP growth?
On http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2004/gdp304a.htm
I see this data for Gross domestic product (GDP):













periodannualizedactual
2001 .8
2002 1.9
2003 3.0
I 03 1.9 .475
II 03 4.1 1.025
III 03 7.4 1.8
IV 03 4.2 1.05
I 04 4.5 1.125
II 04 3.3 .825
III 04 3.7 .925

As I recall, there was a PRELIMINARY figure in 2003Q3 of an 8.2% ANNUALIZED growth rate, which amounted to a one-quarter growth spurt of 2.05%, and which was revised down to 7.4% annualized/1.8% actual. And of course that was followed by approximately 4% annualized growth since then. So could you explain where your "fact" of a "giant 8.2%" number comes from TG? Thanks much.

AKL S.C. 13:02 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
To HK [email protected]
Do you think EUR will turn its way back when so lot people long it?

San Diego DC 12:50 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
TRI Tpulse ,
I agree with your assessment of EUR. If you look at the monthly chart , the last 6 months has been in a congestion zone. Now EUR has come out of the zone in October04', hopefully we will see more trending type moves.

Dallas GEP 12:46 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Shorted pound 1.8552

HK [email protected] 12:46 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   

van Gecko 10:14 GMT November 9, 2004

Indeed very similar price action to that in January.
Thanks for that reminder.

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:45 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
TRI to quito_ecuador_valdez 12:21 GMT November 9, 2004// It depends at what segment of the chart you look. Near trend changes, it seems to get more turbulant, yes. We're a few months away from a mega trend change on the BIG scale and in terms of time I'm looking at the 10 year chart even tho it is a synthetic chart..parts of it value. During the next 3-5 months expect a -lot- of big chop due to our approach to the trend change (evaluation of USD) ..hundreds of pips each peaklet. Makes for supurb trading. On each dip you'll hear soothsayers saying, "well, that's it, time to go down forever now" and on each rise you'll hear the opposite, they'll be stargazing at 1.60 or some such humorous tgt.

Tokyo IM 12:34 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez// Good day to you too. Thanks for the answer.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 12:31 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
my view for today:
EURUSD: Neutral to Bearish and GBPUSD: Bearish.

I am outta here for now, posted too much that I am not used to. Bye evryone.

gl and TIA:-)

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:21 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM// Buenos dias amigo! Tgts=1.3100 through 1.3150 on peaks in that range. I'm not waiting til 1.32..that's for those who have more guts than I. :^) I'll reenter if 1.34 looks eminent enough but the higher we go the riskier it gets and I am not a high risk player..I only play for profit, not adrenalin. I've other things that supply that.

TRI to quito_ecuador_valdez 12:21 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Dear friend, have been there have done that. Your 500 pips was not the point of discussion.

Tokyo IM 12:15 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 12:11 GMT November 9, 2004 // What is your target for Euro position ?

SanFrancisco TG 12:14 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
More on US GDP and the Deficit.

US federal expenditures remain at relatively low levels by historical standards. Specifically, at 20.1 percent of GDP in 2003, federal expenditures —

* Were lower than in any year from 1975 through 1996.

* Were lower than the average level from 1970 through 2000 (which was 20.9 percent of GDP).

* Were significantly lower than the level of expenditures at corresponding periods of past business cycles (that is, during periods of economic slumps).

Expenditures averaged 21.4 percent of GDP in 1975/76, 22.3 percent in 1991/92, and 23.3 percent in 1982/83. In each of these three periods, the budget was suffering from the effects or after-effects of recession, as it is now. During such periods, federal expenditures rise as a share of GDP both because GDP is temporarily depressed and because expenditures for such programs as unemployment compensation are temporarily higher than normal.

Still we recently saw a giant 8.2% GDP in the US. Just more fact that the US economy is strong.

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:11 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
si amigos..to each his/her own..trading styles are trading styles. See, told ya I'd get screamed at but I still have my 1.2420 fellas. LOL 500 pips speaks for itself. Traded since 1996. :^) Secret is knowing your position is good..not just trying to convince yourself while shaving..knowing is knowing. Nuff said, I'm no pip jock, strictly long term where rules observed on the deck ARE NOT the rules of the bridge crew.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 12:08 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
TRI Tpulse 11:54 GMT November 9, 2004
Look at eurgbp when you cant handle spikes or 'violent' behavior. IMVHO and hope it helps.

TIA:-)

ALK S.C. 12:05 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Tomorrow, deficit figures...long EUR, target...1.3xxx?

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 12:03 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Took one-touch SHORT GBPUSD for target 1.8469 in 2 weeks.

TIA:-)

Bruxville Jim 11:58 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
I don't think this LOOK MOM, NO STOPS (heard this saying in a forum) discussion makes sense - there are different dimensions that should be taken into account, e.g. leverage (you will never get a margin call at 1:1 leverage), time frame, ability to monitor the market throughout the day (some kind of mental stops might be employed), number of currency pairs traded simultaneously (some kind of 'hedging') etc. etc.
GL

TRI Tpulse 11:54 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Well I'm not going into detail discussing your trading style vs. my trading style. All I can say I've been trading for 5 year now. I'm still in due to my stop loss rules. My question was "has anybody agree that eur/usd character has changed lately, it became more violent?"

PAR 11:54 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Trichet should not worry about the value of the Euro. He should be worried about european ( non - existent ) price stability and exorbitant money supply growth.

Atlanta-South 11:51 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Use the MENTAL stops. Much safer & only YOU know.

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:50 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
I'd like to classify my statement below about stops. You've obviously got to be bloody sure of your position in long term to not have stops and not get yourself in a tizzy when the least thing happens. I'd never advise this tactic for short term trading...only trades that you plan for equal to or more than 4 weeks. The keyword is "plan".

SanFrancisco TG 11:47 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
I havent used stops in a long time

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:39 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
If you've had long possies since 1.24+ and all your stops taken out then you should consider what I've done and simply don't have stops for very long term positions. I still have my 1.2420 possie, you don't. I'm not being nasty here (forgive the curtness of black and white text) but sometimes the rules don't apply about stops and losses. I realize I'll get screamed at but stops lose more for me BY FAR than bad positions on long term trades.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 11:18 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
My readings: This week may be bearish in nature and my bias is for more downside movement than upwards from 1.2969. 1.2869 and much lower probably.

gl everyone.
TIA:-)

TRI Tpuls 11:17 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Hello to everyone. It seems Eur/Usd is extreamly choppy since September. I had all long positions (about 10 trials) since the break of 1.2460 and managed to loose money!!!! It's crazy, market is so choppy and violent that all my stops on longs were done. Eur/Usd market reminds me more of a Gbp/Usd pair, where we see violent "V" formation moves. Does anybody share my view that Eur/Usd character has changed?

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:15 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Syd 09:49 GMT November 9, 2004//Well said. Very well said.
PAR 10:14 GMT November 9, 2004//German economy is in perpetual decline. LOL...the single currency - born in Frankfurt. Pah! Where would we be as FX traders with a true "single currency"?


9-Nov Tuesday All times GMT es=estimate pr=previous
Today's turkey shoot:

EUR Germ.ZEW Surv.Econ.Sentmt NOV 10:00 es=33.0 pr=37.6
EUR Germ.ZEW Surv.Econ.Sentmt NOV 10:00 es=30.0 pr=31.3
EUR Germ.ZEW Surv.Currnt Situat'n NOV 10:00 es=-57.5 pr=-58.9
CHF SNB Hildebrand Speaks 11:00

USD Wh'sale Inventories SEP 15:00 es=0.7% pr=0.9%
USD Wh'sale Sales SEP 15:00 es=0.7% pr=1.2%

NZD Food Prices MoM OCT 21:45 pr=0.0%
AUD Westpac Nov.Consumr Conf.Indx 23:30

JPY Crnt Acct Tot.SEP 23:50 ¥1,707.4B ¥1,447.0B
JPY Adj'd Curnt Acct Tot.SEP 23:50 ¥1,483.8B ¥1,734.2B
JPY Trade Bal-BOP Basis SEP 23:50 ¥806.3B
JPY Int'l Securities Invest SEP 23:50 ¥2,035.7B

SanFrancisco TG 10:36 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Gold is at a pivotal level, if just under this area 432 holds than likely so will euro for the remainder of the day, otherwise more downside.

slv sam 10:24 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 12:01 GMT November 8, 2004
careful! most players imho are waiting for euro to show any sign of fatigue! if so i expect e/$ to loose 150-250 quickly!GT


Texas(Jksn.) PNB 10:22 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 02:55 GMT November 9, 2004
Well it's based on time cycles and tries to read market behavior, psychological resistances and combines with tech. levels to come out with an analysis. It is emprical in natire and hence I have to do the readings myself to come to any conclusion. It too fails to read a lot of times. I would say a success rate of around 60% is what it offers. Not all times I am correct and it has taken me close to 5 years to make it.

This is all the info. I can provide on it.

Hope this helps and sorry for the delay in answering as I was out for work.

TIA:-)

van Gecko 10:14 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 09:26.. good pointz.. a repeat of the Jan 11 scenario would certainly make life interesting for most..
euro probing new highz.. the duckz start singing.. the 'fat man' sing..
boom! the bearz pouncz.. bullz get cold_feet_titistz ..
5 days & 5 figures later 'balance is restored' & almost everyone is happy.. the cycle repeats..

1.2850 could be the trigger..
Cheerioz..

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 10:14 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Hows everyone doing? eurusd still ranging I see? gl everyone.

TIA:-)

PAR 10:14 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
German economy is in perpetual decline. Everything is to blame - high oil prices, high euro, high interest rates, competition from eastern europ. The only responsible for the German economic disaster is the Red-Green Schroeder government which managed to destroy economic activity while other European economies like the Uk, Spain , Ireland, Poland, Sweden, Luxemburg are booming.

Gen dk 10:08 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Helsinki iw 10:07 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Pretty grim numbers on the Autobahn. The market´s muted reaction bodes for more dollar weakness. IMHO

PAR 10:04 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
German ZEW 13.9 versus expectations of 32. Feeling is that next month the figure will be nagative.

Kaunas 09:57 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Vilnius georgas 09:39 GMT November 9, 2004

history

Syd 09:49 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG As time goes by UK joining the Euro seems to be getting further away, I was once in favour but now tend to agree better out than in, as your mother would say. One thing personally feel that after Germany and France reaction to Iraq they can keep their single currency, too many regulations to follow .

Germany's Nov ZEW economic expectations survey, due 1000 GMT, is likely to decline to 29.5

london xyz 09:46 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin


the market isnt teaching traders lessons, its moving in a totally rational and fundamentally based direction, the warning signs of which have been there for months over the range-bound summer period.

there are feasts there for those that interpret the information correctly and have the requisite conviction, and thats true whether the dollar is going up or down.

SanFrancisco TG 09:40 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
SYD - Seems to me he understands much of the importance of preserving Sterling and staying out of the Euro. Am I correct?

Vilnius georgas 09:39 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Kaunas 08:50 GMT
you mean real time or history?

slv sam 09:37 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
closed my sold $/y position with good profits.
All capital plus profits are used and BOUGHT US$/CAD at 1.1930 looking for 1.27 and of course i am ready to wait weeks if not months to collect my profits NO S/L unless margin disappear at around 1.10!!GT

Syd 09:32 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG yes I like him , will make a cracking PM when Blair finishes - dont think the conservatives have anyone as good , so looks like more of the same next year.

HK [email protected] 09:26 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
What can worry more the boyz responsible for the last $$$_bear.

*Gold breaks above 15_years Res. and fuss out fast
* Euro_fuss out B4 1.3000
*gbp_break-through Res. line, part of a long term daily Triangle and die out.

So now those boyz looking for suckers on both side of the trade to victimize in a narrow range trade.

They worry of an upward move because of intervention.
And a down move to the deep abyss.

But one think good have they done now!!!

They are stabilizing for the time the dollar like a fearing man walking on a rope, and prove the world that there is a limit to the move.

And there is more!!!
If they fall of the rope the $$$ may rebound and bring some more investments for the time to the US, thus they may even indirectly contribute to a trade deficit reduction for this month.

SanFrancisco TG 09:25 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Gordon Brown (BOE) doing a bang up job of putting his foot down to embrace flexibility and low taxes, slammed EU rigidity in address to CBI Execs Annual Conference.

LA Fxnew 09:19 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
will the UK news move cable up ??

anyone ??

thanks

trader Ua 09:12 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
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SanFrancisco TG 08:59 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Expecting range between 105.15 and 106.00 today. See any probes under the range to meet considerable floor nearing 104.75.

Ldn 08:53 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
The European Central Bank is concerned about the dollar's recent fall againt the euro, ECB board member, and governor of the Belgian National Bank, Guy Quaden tells De Tijd.

http://www.tijd.be/nieuws/

Kaunas 08:50 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   

Can anyone suggest me a site where i can find exchange rates
in .csv or .xls format?
Thank you

Tallinn viies 08:05 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
good morning world
sold euros at 1,2929.
target 1,2785.
stop at 1,3009

gold coast martin 08:00 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
A point of note:At this point the market is teaching new traders and reminding old traders to respect the market in either direction.....at the end of every feast there is famine..enjoy the euro feast and prepare for the famine....good trades to all......

london 07:30 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Oct jobs report is driving more economists to expect the Fed in a rate hike Wed with another move higher in Dec. 20 out of 22 primary dealers found respondents unanimous the FOMC will raise the fed funds target rate to 2.00% from 1.75% Wed. also expect fed funds to be raised another 25bp to 2.25% in Dec.

Ldn 06:29 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
ECB and BOJ may join forces, intervene to stem both EUR, JPY strength vs USD, "I think 1.30 is a big issue for European officials, but if the euro breaks above there then the yen will break through 105 and that's not desirable for either central bank," trader says

hk ab 05:44 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
I understand the gecko's mentioned QDN alert as I have been "alerted" by the locals news 3 times yesterday USD will go down on the reason double twin.

Calabash TarHeel 05:35 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 05:18 GMT November 9, 2004
Yes ab, patience is the key now. First real strong session for the Nikkei, looking for 105 to come under pressure. Just don't don't know if 103 will be seen this month or not.
Take Care.

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:27 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
One weird E/$ chart...I'm getting some shut eye...mañana guys. zzzz dreaming of cheap Euros for breakfast.

Calabash TarHeel 05:25 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 04:49 GMT November 9, 2004
Should have mentioned the key res. number that I have between 1.2930 and 1.3155 is 1.3038.
gl,gt

hk ab 05:18 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
TarHeel.
The key is we need to do it silently and with great patient.
everything under 106 is special gift and 103 is the jackpot.
Maybe you would like to see some stabilizing first.

Calabash TarHeel 05:14 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 05:06 GMT November 9, 2004
Hello ab. Hope all is well with you.
How cheap are you hoping to buy some dollars vs the yen?
Good Luck!

Calabash TarHeel 05:10 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 04:49 GMT November 9, 2004
I can't answer that yet. Need to wait until Euro moves to and either takes 1.3155 or is firmly sold off there. The next figure I would be looking at above 1.3155 would be 1.3380. Right now it is having trouble holding 1.2930. London might give some insight for the next move. When the top is reached and that will be when the big money stops buying Euros, there will be a long trip down, way down, in the cards. Imvho.
gl,gt

hk ab 05:06 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Time to plan some dlr/jpy longs till Xmas.

nyc sa 04:49 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
thnx Tarheel , what would be the new euro range according to ur analysis ?

Calabash TarHeel 04:00 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 03:52 GMT November 9, 2004
Anyone thinks we revisit euro 1.20 before 1.30 slow grinding ?

Very doubtful. Think the big money is shooting for around 1.3150 if possible. If they can get it that high, think they will be happy to turn it loose. The more expensive the price of a Euro, the less attractive the r/r becomes for buying Euros.
Imho.
gl,gt

nyc sa 03:52 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Anyone thinks we revisit euro 1.20 before 1.30 slow grinding ?

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:47 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
HK RF// I like your style. And I wouldn't be surprized if EZ pulls a few fast ones soon to continuously slant data and statistics to hurt the € as a cheap way to intervene, then a few months from now "revise" the numbers. Riiight. You can send two statisticians on the same mission, telling one to make it look good, the other to make it look bad, and both come back fully loaded & "totally viable".


9-Nov Tuesday All times GMT es=estimate pr=previous
Today's turkey shoot:

GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor 0:01 pr=2.0% A
AUD Ntl Aust.Bnk Oct. Business Survey 0:30

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current OCT 5:00 PR=47.3
JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook OCT 5:00 PR=50.0
JPY Machine Tool Orders YoY OCT P 6:00 PR=54.8%

EUR Germ.CPI MoM OCT F 7:00 PR=-0.30%
EUR Germ.CPI YoY OCT F 7:00 PR=1.80%
EUR Germ.CPI-EU Harmonised MoM OCT F 7:00 PR=-0.4%
EUR Germ.CPI-EU Harmonised YoY OCT F 7:00 PR=1.9%

GBP Visibl Trade Bal SEP 9:30 £-5,100M £-5220M
GBP TradeBal Non EU25 SEP 9:30 £-2,900M £-2980M

3 EZ SURVEYS:
EUR Germ.ZEW Econ.Sentmt NOV 10:00 es=33.0 pr=37.6
EUR Germ.ZEW Econ.Sentmt NOV 10:00 es=30.0 pr=31.3
EUR Germ.ZEW Currnt Situat'n NOV 10:00 es=-57.5 pr=-58.9

CHF SNB Hildebrand Speaks 11:00

USD Wh'sale Inventories SEP 15:00 es=0.7% pr=0.9%
USD Wh'sale Sales SEP 15:00 es=0.7% pr=1.2%

NZD Food Prices MoM OCT 21:45 pr=0.0%
AUD Westpac Nov.Consumr Conf.Indx 23:30

JPY Crnt Acct Tot.SEP 23:50 ¥1,707.4B ¥1,447.0B
JPY Adj'd Curnt Acct Tot.SEP 23:50 ¥1,483.8B ¥1,734.2B
JPY Trade Bal-BOP Basis SEP 23:50 ¥806.3B
JPY Int'l Securities Invest SEP 23:50 ¥2,035.7B


Don't let upcoming US data do anything more than improve your longs E/$.

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:36 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Here's an exerpt from forexnews.com: HERE

"Should none of the key Euro politicians (Schroeder, Eichel, Chirac, Sarkozy or Prodi) show any concern this week, we could easily see the Euro shatter the $1.30 level and on to 1.3030. More importantly, traders should also watch for comments from ECB officials (Trichet, Papademos, Issing, Weber or Noyer).

With eyes set on the $1.30 figure, euro resistance stands at $1.3030 and 1.3050.. Support lifts up to 1.2830-35, followed by 1.2790 and 1.2740-50.

HK [email protected] 03:32 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Few days ago the good US figure did not help the USD.
For Y.day and today the trade deficit does not help the Eur and other currencies.
Let me tell you that that story of the T.deficit is only a B.S. excuse to hide market manipulations or unexplained market moves.
So if I will go into Euro, I like to buy it much much lower, when after another story will crop up.
All time the T.deficit is the story it is no story anymore.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 03:22 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
http://kalzayani.freewebsites.com/today.htm
I am using 15 Minutes data here ----> Longer period

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:20 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
While we're all watching E/$ long nicely 35 pips thus far for the last 90 minutes, pull up a 30 day chart on E/$. Draw a support line from 10/13 to 11/3 & continue it to the right border of the chart. We've got some decent airspace under our present value of 1.2925ish...that's the consolidation possibility we've heard about for 600 pips now. As you can see, the support line U just drew goes up each day, meaning each day we don't see consolidation, said consolidation will occur all that much higher. I see this chart longing with no consolidation in sight yet although I wish it would so I can buy some cheap Euros.

Compare our present E/$ chart to a segment from the 3 year chart..11/11/03 to 1/12/04. See 1,400 pips (14 cents) to the first of two peaks. We've advanced 900 pips from 8/27 thus far. That's the pattern I see us approaching..will form a double top 3-5 cents higher than now..then from that 2nd peak the USD will pivot against its crosses for 2-3 years.

Philadelphia Caba 03:15 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 01:52 GMT November 9, 2004
Caba 6943 is the stop

Thanks GEP.

SNP 03:00 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
GEP
chk your email in 5 mins

Syd 03:00 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez yes its like a nicely baked cake nearly cooked ,all the ingredients are in , or a night at the Opera just waiting for the fat Lady to get up and sing. With the market static for so long the big boys need to make up their profits

Dallas GEP 02:58 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
FXNEW, I do not have a possie in GBP or EUR right now. BUT GBP looks still MORE bullish than EURO presently 1.8650 could be seen this week IMO

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 02:56 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
GM All

OK SZ 02:55 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Texas(Jksn.) PNB 01:35 GMT November 9, 2004

can u explain your one-touch system a bit?

LA fxnew 02:53 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
GEP:
whats your temporary target for cable?
will it up to 1.86?
thx

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:50 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
DAT, SYD & martin,
If you could combine all of our posts on the subject of €/$, I think you'd have a very focused image of what's happening. I've been told his evening that hedge funds, like martin said, are poised..the only risk is like last year when most of the hedge funds close out in Nov so profit taking is gonna happen.. and this will pull back substantially..maybe 2 cents.

The statement that Tritchet's verbal haze has brought the E/$ chart down 100 pips can be taken also with coincidental timing for a much needed consolidation before the final charge to and past 1.30. Hopefully Tritchet's beady eyes are reading this right now knowing his "cry wolf" (like mentioned below) is waning. Even if ECB does intervene at 1.30 instead of higher, wth, fine, we'll just wait it out and ride the turbulant waves of profits. That's FX amigos. Tritchey baby can't fight the world solo & win in the final battle.

Dallas GEP 02:42 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
I know I am repeating myself here but I know most of you are nuts like me and trade all sesions!! The safer play the next few days will be non-usd based pairs like eur/gbp, eur/chf etc. MORE money can be made probably IF you trade EUR or GBP IF you are going the right way but stops will be eaten BOTH ways IMO

Syd 02:21 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD's mild response to ECB Trichet remarks overnight suggests "his verbal intervention has quickly become subject to diminishing returns"; even so, "we would not rule out a bigger downward correction" in pair, which now at 1.2896, because stops on upside already taken out, speculators very long EUR. Break below 1.2850 to allow for bigger drop, with big test being whether Friday's post-payrolls low of 1.2760-70 would attract foreign buying.
BNP Paribas

Boulder DAT 02:20 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Valdez....

I just read through earlier posts and sawe that you left a post.

As you stated there may be some heavy sell orders sitting on top of the market. We've not been able to hit those just yet. Not so sure that Trichet can just throw out one comment and that will be the end of the run on the euro. Still, just finally saying something has brought the euro down about 100 pips today. If we don't get up any higher over the next few sessions, I expect that a few traders will get antsy and sell. But, I also believe that there are a lot of bids sitting on the bottom of this market waiting to pounce on a cheaper opportunity to buy euros. If the 335k Non-Farm Payrolls can't save the dollar, what can? Nothing.

Overall, I doubt we've seen any kind of top. We'll see a lot of choppy trading if nothing else. But, until some of the fundamental reasons for selling the dollar aren't addresed, then the dollar will probably continue to be sold. I'm not interested in taking a short on a rising market like this. I'll wait it out and buy on the dips. I've been doing that since mid summer. I've done pretty well with it.

gold coast martin 02:17 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 11:38 GMT November 8, 2004
...FURTHER THOUGHTS...i cant help feeling that this current upleg of euro is an end of year fund -induced with the deficit as an excuse....deficit has been with us all year...funds trying to improve their returns ..so by end of december there will be food for both bulls and bears.....g/t

This was posted yesterday on GVI...hope it helps....g/t

ny amc 02:12 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
I have a question to the more experienced/knowledgeable traders here. With this recent run-up in the Euro is there a risk of a sell-off from traders/hedge fund types who need to lock in there profits for year end to make there bonus/year end money ? Just curious

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:02 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Lion City eur/$$ 01:34 GMT November 9, 2004//Don't take it from me, take it from ECB who admitted some time ago that 1.32 was what they termed their "pain threshold"..meaning that's the tolerance point. Did they lie then? Dunno. It may be ECB sees intervention past 1.30 but the last time they artificially propped up the buck they spent billions and didn't do a darned thing other than make fools of themselves (as usual)...because HERE WE ARE at the gates of 1.30 AGAIN. BOJ has learned not to fight the bear$ as well and won't be able to help ECB again as before (the former gang of 2) because of national interests requiring BOJ funds more than toying/losing with FX. (Right Tokyo amigo?) Now it's almost all up to ECB & you can forget it...they even admitted weeks before Tritchet's double talk recently that a weak USD was fine with them. So where are we? I'd say the pavers are working on the road to 1.32 right in front of Tritchet's "house".

Note: evidently the $bears didn't like the last bull sortie one bit. LOL What a fake out.

Dallas GEP 01:52 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Caba 6943 is the stop

Syd 01:47 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
China likely to hike total of 100 bps next 6 months to rein in demand-pull price pressures, JP Morgan says rate hike last month signals government intent to increase reliance on market-based mechanisms to manage economic cycle; adds this extent of monetary tightening should be sufficient and hike cycle likely to be completed relatively quickly in about 6 months

I dont think I believe this

Hong Kong Qindex 01:46 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 00:57 GMT November 9, 2004
EUR/USD : The neutral zone of my daily cycle is located at 1.2894 - 1.2955. A projected supporting level is expected at 1.2815 - 1.2826 and a projected resistant level is positioning at 1.3070 - 1.3077..............................................

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 01:35 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
I would be taking a long on 12 nov,2004 and if eurusd is anywhere above 1.2900 on close on 11th nov,2004, then hopefully in next 2 weeks we may see 1.3000, though being a psychological point, the resistance may be higher than normal.

Anyway, my next one-touch would be SHORT on 25 nov,2004 and my readings show me that there is some kind of weird movement after 25 nov,2004 for 2-4 weeks and i am still to find out what happens after this date when it comes.

gl everyone. play safe.

TIA:-)

Lion City eur/$$ 01:34 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Oop... limit ur sell position at 12880 and look for turning take off point.... everyone is right EC maintenace at 1300 and 13100... goodluck

Syd 01:32 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Australian Treasurer Peter Costello tells journalists stronger AUD, after gains of recent years, is hitting exporters. Adds high oil prices also having an impact on economy, contributing to some recent softness in retail consumption

quito_ecuador_valdez
seems they were watching

Lion City eur/$$ 01:29 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Daily trading gaming is real fun...everyone of us make some money from my cue soon..eur/$$1280 and 12840 ... take notic only soft landing remember.. cheer

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:25 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
oslo oskar 00:56 GMT November 9, 2004
Very very serious. I'm gaining one contact every 3 days on the average.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:20 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Syd 00:47 GMT November 9, 2004// Tks for your view of 1.33 as top. Nothing would please me more. I'll probably close half my €/$ possies at 1.3100 as I don't have the benefit of night time trading..only my bank's FX office hours, & as you say, after a point profits start to look juicy to everyone holding Euros...€/$ will drop like a lead balloon in jerks once the selling starts...secret is to bail out ahead of "D day" with half your possies leaving the other half to close in stages all the way to tgt. For me tgt is 1.3200-1.3225. I'll leave the rest of the grub for foragers while I sleep soundly & happily. I'll be watching for a triangle to indicate top.

As to now...1.2900 I agree is the testing pivot point to explore lower support (which just broke fortunately to test the bull barrier of 1.2900) only 100 pips below to 1.2800 itself. The €/$ pair has simply got to regroup at lower levels than 1.2900 to gain the need to climb & I can personally thank Monseur Tritchet for his timely verbal haze in aiding my fortune.

Lion City Eur/$$ 01:17 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Eur/$$ look for a soft landing than follow by a big take off. Next landing 12880 if break 12840 another landing... Take this cue... win your right take ur money friends.... look for turn point any time from now! slow shochactics and RSI.Cheer.

oslo oskar 00:56 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
"....I was just informed (my circle of "informants" is growing) that some European CBs are now placing Euro sell orders like beads on a string from €/$ 1.2970 to 1.3200 cashing in profits before year's end."

"If you would like to volunteer for my circle of contacts you must have an information link to your country's CB or a major bank chain there to monitor currency anomolies..buy & sell orders etc.. It's time to put transparency in FX. Yahoo me or ask Jay for my email."

Are you serious?

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:56 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Lion City EUR/$$ 00:00 GMT November 9, 2004
Eur/$$ looking to break at 12900. we are look at next point 12880 follow by 12840 after the break from day low. Everyone good luck.


I'm not challenging your post AT ALL but could you give us your fundamental or technical support for it? Winning theory is worth 1000 posts at times. TIA amigo. Nothing would please me more than to see some cheap Euros for sale to add to my growing collection so I hope you're right. I've got Euros from 1.2420 & 1.2900 so something in the middle would be great for the ride up to 1.30.

Philadelphia Caba 00:55 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 00:44 GMT November 9, 2004
Took a eur/gbp long off an order @ 6960, target 6990. That is all
GEP, may I ask you on your s/l? Thanks.

Hong Kong Qindex 00:48 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Syd 00:47 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez posted last week

Syd 02:39 GMT November 5, 2004
hk ab hi , talk some are looking for the top around 133 Euro so would imagine its more the level , and who will pull the trigger first - due to it not being such a great year I wouldnt think they would like to miss the juicy profits they are holding cos as we all know until cashed can disappear in a flash

Dallas GEP 00:44 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Took a eur/gbp long off an order @ 6960, target 6990. That is all

Hong Kong Qindex 00:25 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:22 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Boulder DAT 19:18 GMT November 8, 2004
You and I definitely agree. But just a heads up here I was just informed (my circle of "informants" is growing) that some European CBs are now placing Euro sell orders like beads on a string from €/$ 1.2970 to 1.3200 cashing in profits before year's end. We'll see some wicked volitility during that Euro bear fight, immune to fundamental events & technicals etc..

So those CBs evidently percieve the ride as over at that range at least for a while & with all those sell Euro orders cashing in after 1.2970, expect a formidable correction drop around 1.31-1.32 in &euro/$;. I suspect the 1.2970 "sell €" barrier is maybe what contained this last long. The scenario fits my model perfectly...another 3 weeks +- we'll see the first of a large double top all time €/$ high of 1.31-1.32 then a juicy short from all those CB sell Euro orders devaluing temporarily the € to start the chart's rise to the 2nd top.

If you would like to volunteer for my circle of contacts you must have an information link to your country's CB or a major bank chain there to monitor currency anomolies..buy & sell orders etc.. It's time to put transparency in FX. Yahoo me or ask Jay for my email.

KL KL 00:22 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
out eurusd +5 pip ....

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 00:15 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   

eur+chf

1.2881 1.2949

1.1782 1.1858

KL KL 00:11 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
long eurusd 1.2907 short term play

Lion City EUR/$$ 00:00 GMT November 9, 2004 Reply   
Eur/$$ looking to break at 12900. we are look at next point 12880 follow by 12840 after the break from day low. Everyone good luck.

 




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