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Forex Forum Archive for 11/14/2004

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Boston mpd004 23:58 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Toronto//thanks loads for the advice, but I think I'll just play along for awhile, gonna hold it longer term. GL GT

toronto dr.unken kat 23:54 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
euroyen is short Bostondude

Boston mpd004 23:40 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
long E/J @ 136.99

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 23:34 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 23:26 GMT November 14, 2004

couldnt agree more. no matter which country's army. the armies give their lives to make us all safe. its so courageous and only men can do it not sissies like us. i am sorry but thats what most of us are including me, who are thinking of entering the next trade, when someone out there is protecting me by putting their own life at stake. and he is no relative of mine still an army man does it. no sacrifice is bigger than this. but it should not end up being some kind of dirty game play of some politicians.


Dallas GEP 23:26 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
YEp CB, tell you what. might be best to grab 15-20 pips if given and CLOSE. I saw SAXXXXO feed show @ 1.2977 then immediately show @ 1.2963 then back up to 1.2976 again.

BTW, found out today one of the kids that graduated a year later than my own daughter from her high school in 2000 was killed in June this year in Iraq (friendly fire). It doesn't seem to affect you in the same way unless someone close to you loses their life. It is always the same tho, the old men send the younger men off to die in the name of freedom and to preserve a way of life. You only hope their judgement is sound. We owe so much to people we will never know but how fortunate we are for those that have made the ultimate scariface for their country.

KL KL 23:15 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Top of the morning everyone, well day 3 of USD bear being trumpeted everywhere under the sun...good. Flat now and waiting to start the day soon....Japan need to wake up and lead the way and China more talk on yuan devaluing....nice to spook the market.

Syd 23:13 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
NAB strategy AUD-specific indicators the AUD is a touch overdone at present levels.

Halifax CB 23:04 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
I guess what pushed me is that both the NYT and WSJ seem to be lining up for a stronger dollar. Can panic be far behind? GL/GT...

Dallas GEP 23:00 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Well CB, Euro is a very tough call IMO. I think however the bottom side on the GBP CAN be much deeper than the EURO. I am trying to determine IF we had some usd buying which pair would be BEST to be in. USD/CAD Could short while USD is going long against other pairs so that's probably OUT. USD/CHF could probably travel the farthest tho so that may be the play short term from about 1.1705. Might not see much for 7-8 hours

Halifax CB 22:52 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Well GEP, sorry to see that; I've got some new Euro longs. With enough variance, may we both profit!

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 22:46 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
hi, just logged back again everyone. so howz it going for everyone.

gl for this week.


Syd 22:39 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Very quiet this morning in Asia so far , Bloomberg live Asia tv, analysts being interviewed see the Euro pullback to 127.50 region this week , one thing the Fed do know is just one kind word from them re Dollar decline overdone , will help it scurry up a few hundred points from here with the stretched situation at present .

Philadelphia Caba 22:37 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP.

Dallas GEP 22:36 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Well Euro shorts from Friday stilll open...stop at 1.3014 target 1.2890 area

London. 21:52 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Dutch Muslims Dismayed by Anti-Islamic Backlash

I am amazed that they are amazed.

Syd 21:49 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Ads to Back Schwarzenegger for President

What a combination that would be with his wife a Democrate
food for thought

Rivonia PipPirate 21:44 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Syd 20:59 Croc Dundee in Lebanon...there's a thought for a movie.

Syd 20:59 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
A harbour cruise with terror suspects
Something odd was happening on Sydney Harbour in the days leading up to New Year's Eve last year. A group of men known to police and ASIO counter-terrorism intelligence experts had found a sudden interest in pleasure cruising.The men had acquired a boat and were seen making several trips around the harbour, showing particular interest, sources say, in an oil terminal. One was Saleh Jamal, a convert to militant Islam, who three months later would jump bail in Sydney on shooting charges and flee to Lebanon.

Sydney 20:46 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
dc CB thanks for that

dc CB 20:41 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Sidney. IMM data delayed this week, to be released Mon 11/15 due to US gov holiday 11/11

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 20:40 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD 1.3015 1.2778 Hold

Syd 20:37 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
EU mulls options to counter euro's surge
Ministers are gathering amid signs that the appreciation of the euro is starting to eat into growth, already threatened by surging world oil prices in recent months

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 20:30 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
EURGBP 0.7118 0.6974 Buy

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 20:28 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
GBPJPY 201.44 195.30 Buy

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 20:26 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
AUDUSD 0.7843 0.7631 Buy

Sydney 19:54 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone have the last IMM data thanks

Bandung Margahayu Asti 19:46 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Qindex totally agree with your level. Not so far with my prediction number. Hope you keep working with your super magnet levels. GL/GT for you. How is your prediction about eur/usd, usd/chf and gbp/ usd long term ? I would really appreciate for your share. TIA.....

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:30 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Long Chf/Yen for a few days

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:22 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
long eur/yen

Bandung Margahayu Asti 19:12 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Hello my friends...
take this level for your signals..
eur/usd resistance 1.3060/80
gbp/usd resistance 1.8750/75
aud/usd resisntace 0.7745/60
usd/chf support 1.1650/20

Good Luck to you all.....!

Roumeli anka 19:11 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply

Philadelphia Caba 18:59 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Good afternoon GEP, are you in short EUR/USD? Where is your stop, please? Is 1.3010 enought for this time? Thanks for your view.

knoxville dan-k 18:05 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
well one additionial thought, the US beleived that when saddam was ousted the people of Iraq would unite behind US thus making the transition complete in a reletive short time, however with the sheititts in the south the kerds in the north the former saddam regime, plus who knows else all wanting former saddam's power this transition will take a long time for us to get out of---all in the name of greed!!-imho

London Zappy 18:01 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Yes, aggree - low dollar is what they want, and if that upsets the French and the Germans... I don't see Bush and Snow crying themselves to sleep at night. The thing is, the trade deficit is so mighty now, I think the CBs might be able to shake the charts for a while, but it's not the speculators that are driving the dollar down, its the sheer amount of trade. Merchant banks will just sell into any rally, just to fulfill their' trade orders. IMvHO

Dallas GEP 17:55 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
I am not sure what to beleive anymore Zappy. USD weaker is IMO EXACTLY what US wants tho.

knoxville dan-k 17:47 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
yep the thought once saddam was gone it would all wrap up fast, however i think we in this one for a long haul now

knoxville dan-k 17:44 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
oh yes, agree Dallas, terrisom to this extent was not supposed to happen, they figured once saddam was out of the picture it would be a easy takeover, or transition in proper terms, but look at other countries we have gotten involved with the end results are the same -- geezzee even vietnam now has coke a cola, -- lol

knoxville dan-k 17:39 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
well Dallas, origionally the war was supposed to end saddams rule, and not unlike China, they would adopt American or maby I should say western ways of doing business, they would have McDonalds on every street corner and WalMarts down the street, the U.S. has no real political agenda other than what BIG BUSNISS wants, been that way forever

London Zappy 17:37 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
I have the deapest respect for you, but surely you don't buy the offical line? Can we really call the mess that is Iraq, a liberation? Sure, a lot of Iraqi people are glad to see the back of Saddam, but the human cost has been very high. More importantly, terrorism and disslike of the west in general, and the USA in particular seems to have increased. Also dollar is weaker ;)

Dallas GEP 17:26 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Well Dan, if that were the case, why aren't oil revenues being used for reconstruction costs????? Plus current oil prices are MUCH higher NOW than when Saddam ruled. I respectfully disagree that OIL was the real reason but I fully admit it certainly had at least SOME consideration.

knoxville dan-k 17:17 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
u just left one thing out Dallas, the REAL reason we are over their, OIL------- .
when the dust really settles ill bet U.S. oil companys own the countrys oil intrest in one fashion or another imho

Dallas GEP 17:06 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
On semi-political comment since markets are not open. I have had a few friends email me over the weekend and ask why the battle for FALLUJAH is taking so long for a solution and the answer is relatively simple. The American military concern from the beginning of the Iraqi invasion has been to eliminate Sadam's regime and ALL remnants of it while trying to minimize civilian and structural damage to structures not used for miltary purposes. The problem is the insurgents fully realize this and so have repeatedly used civilains as human shields as well as structures that are considered scared shrines.

The insurgent strategy does work very well to the extent that it significantly slows down the US initiatives. The focus here in The US of course at times is the loss of life of our military personnel but equally as tragic but much less recognized here in the US media is the loss of Iraqi civilans and other innocents.

The solution to all this of course is the resolution of the conflict and the orderly election of an Iraqi government by their own people and if that election should result in a non-democratic form of government then if it is of their own choosing, NO ONE has a right to interfere with that/

The INTIAL military strategy was well planned. The Plan for reconstruction and normalization was obviously NON-EXISTENT. The US liberation force has become for the time being an occupational force but this should have come as NO SURPRISE to anyone, for this has been the way it has been in conflicts for all of world history.

Basically the goals of the Iraqi people and US military I believe are pretty much the same. The people want their country back and the US miltary want to come home. Of course the conflict here as I see it is WHEN this will happen.

Let us all hope for a resolution soon.

hong kong nt 16:35 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Hope orders at euro 1.280, chf 1.190 and aud .755 may be filled this week..

houston ken 16:35 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may drop to a record against the euro for a third consecutive week and weaken versus the yen on expectations the Bush administration will turn a deaf ear to complaints from policy makers in Europe and Japan.

Sixty-three percent of the 56 strategists, investors and traders polled by Bloomberg on Nov. 12 from Tokyo to New York advised selling the dollar against the euro. The U.S. currency slid to an all-time low of $1.3006 per euro on Nov. 10.

Trading in the dollar, down 4.8 percent against the euro in the past month, has been orderly and markets are operating in a favorable way, a U.S. Treasury official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said in Washington on Nov. 12. European Central Bank officials, including President Jean-Claude Trichet, described the moves as ``brutal'' while Japanese Vice Finance Minister Hiroshi Watanabe said the dollar's slide has been rapid.

``The Bush administration has left it up to the market, and the market has decided that the dollar's value is unsustainable,'' said Matthew Cobon, who manages currency risk in London at Deutsche Asset Management, which oversees about $70 billion.

Demand among international investors for U.S. securities is dwindling as the current account and budget deficits widen, said Cobon, who predicts the dollar will drop to $1.35 per euro and 100 yen in three to six months. Foreigners added to their holdings of U.S. assets at the slowest pace in 10 months in August, the Treasury said on Oct. 18. Figures for September are released tomorrow.

Failure to Rally

Against the euro, the dollar declined 0.1 percent last week to $1.2973, the fifth-straight weekly decline, according to EBS, an electronic foreign-exchange trading system. The U.S. currency was at 105.57 yen at 5 p.m. in New York on Nov. 12, unchanged from the previous week. It fell in each of the preceding six weeks.

``The bias is very much U.S. dollar weakness across the board,'' said Alex Schuman, manager of foreign-exchange strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. ``No amount of good news laid at the U.S. dollar's feet can hold the dollar back from falling.''

The dollar failed to rally even after government reports on Nov. 12 showed the pace of economic growth slowing in the euro region and Japan. U.S. consumers were more confident this month and retail sales rose, reports the same day showed.

Measured by the Fed's Trade-Weighted Major Currency Dollar Index, the dollar has shed 21 percent since Bush took office in January 2001. Under Bill Clinton's last two Treasury secretaries, Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers, the index advanced about 24 percent.

`Sticking With Headline'

Treasury Secretary John Snow, who has been in the job since February 2003, supports a ``strong dollar,'' whose value ``is set in open, competitive markets,'' his spokesman Rob Nichols said.

The administration's language suggests it's happy to see the dollar weaken in an effort to narrow the current account deficit, said Jens Nordvig, a global markets economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which cut its dollar forecasts on Nov. 11. The current account is a measure of trade, services, tourism and investments.

``We are likely to see them sticking with the headline that they have a strong-dollar policy, but the implication is a weaker dollar is welcome to help correct the current-account imbalance,'' said Nordvig, who is based in New York. The firm predicts the dollar will drop to $1.35 per euro in three months and 98 yen.

The shortfall in the current account widened to a record $166.2 billion in the second quarter. The gap is equivalent to 5.7 percent of gross domestic product, up from 5.1 percent in the first quarter, meaning the U.S. economy needs to attract about $1.8 billion a day to maintain the value of the dollar, based on Bloomberg calculations. Third quarter figures are scheduled to be published next month.

`Major Issue'

Gillette Co., Inc. and Avon Products Inc. are among U.S. companies which said a weaker dollar boosted sales in the third quarter. In Europe and Japan, the dollar's decline is hurting some businesses. Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd., the maker of Subaru cars, said the dollar's drop against the yen contributed to a 43 percent decline in second quarter net income.

``The euro may become a major issue if we have a substantial deterioration,'' Juergen Hambrech, chief executive officer of BASF AG, told reporters in Ludwigshafen, Germany, on Nov. 11.

The dollar's decline may be limited by speculation central banks, including the ECB and Bank of Japan, may try to stem the advance of their currencies, according to Marvin Barth, a global currency economist at Citigroup Inc. in London.

``Given how much focus European policy makers have put on this issue, and the notable step up in Japanese focus on the issue, this may make people a little nervous about shorting the dollar,'' said Barth, a former Federal Reserve employee.

Discourage Speculators

Watanabe, who is in charge of currency policy at Japan's Ministry of Finance, told reporters in Tokyo on Nov. 11 that Japan will ``take aggressive action'' if necessary. Japan sold a record 32.9 trillion yen ($310 billion) in the year ended March 31 to stem the yen's advance. The government hasn't sold since March.

Should Japan sell, ``it will be to smooth yen strength and discourage speculators who think this is a one-way bet,'' Cobon at Deutsche Asset said. ``If Asian central banks start intervening again, it will call into question the dynamic of the dollar downtrend.''

The dollar may also rally according to a technical indicator some traders use to gauge a currency's direction. The euro's 14- day relative strength index, which measures how quickly prices have risen or fallen over a given period, climbed to 71.05 on Nov. 12. A level higher than 70 signals an exchange rate may drop.

``If we see $1.33 on the euro next week, it may fall on its face pretty quickly, but if it gets up to $1.31 it should hold gains,'' said Lawrie Dryden, head of currency and asset allocation in Sydney at State Street Global Advisors.

Increasingly Bearish

Sixty-six percent of the people surveyed by Bloomberg said to sell the dollar versus the yen this week and 13 percent said to buy it. Participants also advised selling the dollar in favor of the British pound, Swiss franc and Australian dollar.

Japanese companies have turned more pessimistic on the dollar, according to a weekly survey conducted by the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi Ltd., a unit of Japan's second-largest bank.

About 54 percent of 40 Japan-based firms surveyed are ``bearish'' against the dollar compared with the yen, up from 37 percent in the previous five-day period, the bank said in a report on Nov. 12. The proportion of those ``bullish'' on the dollar fell to 23 percent from 32 percent, the survey showed.

Investors ``really have come to the conclusion that the administration would be quite happy to see the dollar fall,'' said Murray Gunn, director of currencies in Edinburgh at Standard Life Investments, which manages $159 billion. ``We're slightly short on dollars and happy with that.''

Following are the results of Bloomberg's currency survey:


Euro 35 11 10
Yen 37 7 12
British pound 27 12 16
Swiss franc 34 7 12
Australian dollar 34 6 15

Dallas GEP 16:26 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Valdez lost my email address book, not sure why I don't have your email, [email protected]

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 16:16 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone. gl for monday.


Hong Kong Qindex 16:02 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

HK [email protected] 15:13 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Week Opening, for political atmosphere.

Chairman of Palestine Authority to be elected January 9, 2005

14.11.2004, 16.53

CAIRO, November 14 (Itar-Tass) - The elections of the head of the Palestinian Authority will be held on January 9, 2005, said interim chairman of the Authority Rawhi Fattouh. He is acting leader of the Authority instead of Yasser Arafat who died on Thursday.


Battle 'almost over' in Falluja

The US military says the fighting is still not at an end
US and Iraqi forces in Falluja say they are now in control of almost all of the former rebel-held city after nearly a week of fighting.


Iran to Give Final Answer on EU Nuke Deal -Reports

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran will announce its final decision later on Sunday on an EU proposal that it freeze sensitive nuclear work in return for avoiding referral to the UN Security Council for possible sanctions, local news agencies reported.
The semi-official Mehr and ISNA news agencies, citing informed Iranian sources, said Iran's answer would be delivered to the ambassadors of Britain, Germany and France by Hassan Rohani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security

Bruxville Jim 13:20 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 10:58 GMT November 13, 2004
Singapore FI 11:36 GMT November 12, 2004
Qindex may i asked for ur view in GBPJPY ps

GBP/JPY : Current Comment. Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

// What a timely and valuable response. LOL

shanghai 08:05 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   

Hong Kong Qindex 04:16 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
Dow Jones : The key Quantized Level of my Quarterly Cycle is positioning at 10600. The market is negative if it retreats from this targeting level.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:02 GMT November 14, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


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