User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  
January  February  March  April  May  June  July  August  September  October  November  December  
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Forex Forum Archive for 11/17/2004

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


shanghai bc 23:57 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   

MOF/BOJ folks are not bluffing..They may become very active from now on..Anything below Usd/Jpy 100 will be unaceptable to them for the foresseable future ..And their tactics was to do the round of massive interventions starting from anywhere near 103 in the past while defending 100 line in the past..And they have never lost from the intervening lines in the medium-term in the past..Better mark their first line of intervention for reference too..Fwiw..

nyc sa 23:57 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
does anyone here GBP/CHF ? would u be kind enough to post a target or a good entry point ? thnx .

sydney surf 23:44 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
What is going to happen to the Aussie when it gets to 0.8000?
Most players will be inclined to sell it as it is way too expensive now, pyschological level etc... They will then cover when the aussie continues trending north, exaggerating the move to 0.85+. Finally everyone who has been burnt selling it will change sides and now buy the Aussie calling for 0.90+. Only then will we see a massive correction - probably in the one session where the Aussie will lose 4 cents or more and then settle under .8000 in a side ways pattern. So keep buying Aussie until calls for 0.90 or even the absurd --parity. all IMHO of course..... now back to the beach.....

Halifax CB 23:39 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
San Fran TG - re. EURGBP - looking at the weekly charts (extended prior to the Euro with the DEM), the GBP seems to be trading in a pretty "quiet" range - right now, on the weeklies, we're in the region where it seemed to just oscillate back and forth late april of last year to early this year range (roughly between 0.69 and 0.72). There's no turnaround yet, so there's no local range to be declared. Maybe sanity will return in the near future, but let's hope not. There's more profitability in the alternative. Sorry if this is somewhat incoherent, the reisling gertzwhammer-or-whatever is rather pleasant....

Dallas GEP 23:35 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
For NOW, plays SHORT on EURO close to the 1.3050 barrier should work well but probably for only 15-25 pips (tight range).

melbourne farmacia 23:34 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Aud/Usd is on track for 0.7890 after the clean break at 0.7730 ( 06:01 GMT November 15 ) I don’t see anything near this 0.80 level for the time being… techs do not support this level. IMO

Pecs Andras – yes.. rather frustrated with Cable’s handicap status on this current rally… seems the only ccy where fundamentals still dictate . GT

London. 23:33 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Fed funds pricing in 88% chance of 25bp hike Dec,the economy is doing much better than people thought.
Fed to push rates to 3% by spring of 2005 before it considers a pause.
J.P. Morgan

Syd 23:28 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Tanigaki: Japan to act against "strange" FX moves
LINK

shanghai bc 23:15 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   

TG -- Britain is doing fine except that they are in debt up to the hilt with very little savings..Sounds fartmilair to the current forex trend and focus..No wonder Pound is doing poorly in this round..It may take sometime before forex world changes the focus to growth issues rather than debt issues..Just the same as it will take sometime before the market realize they are wrong on speculating on RMB revaluation so soon..

London. 23:06 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:00 good post . Yes its just another excuse the players use to bring the USD down. once this is out of the system, they will use the exuse rate diffentials an push the USD up

Pecs Andras 23:02 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 22:36 GMT November 17, 2004
I think you are absoltutely right. The rpesent EUR/GBP rate is just plain ridiculous. The last couple of weeks we have had some mixed UK data, but overall more positive than negative. On the other hand all the EZ data have been on the negative side, some really pathetic. Finally, the pound should enjoy a healthy yield advantage over EUR. And yet we are up at 0.7000 from the mid .65. This EUR bubble should collapse sooner than later

shanghai bc 23:00 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   

RMB revaluation expectations has been in the market for a few years by now..But it is not going to happen in market expected time frame or fashion..Why should China destalize its economy by revaluing its currency for no apparent good economic reasons to China..Even well versed folks from Morgan or Mundell or Forbes or even Rockefeller do not see the merit in de-pegging RMB any time soon..Sure, RMB will eventually float in time and act as an independent currency ..But in Chinese words, "in time" means at least a few years or even longer..And it is by no means certain RMB will rise on floating either..

On forex market,nobody knows where the proper value of a given currency is at a given time and that is why the blind-mice of forex world tend to overdo the trend all the time..In reality,it is a compromise between the market and the CBs in the end with CBs playing the role of the traffic warden from time to time speeding up or slowing down the speed or even marking the no-go area from time to time..And given the attitude of US Treasury to the declining Dollar,the market is highly unlikely to be deterred with their winning bets so far,except needed tech corrections from time to time..The trend will run till the traffic wardens turn out..Then, the idea of RMB getting another 10-20% advantage along with USD in foreign trade must be unacceptable to competitors starting with Japan and Korea ..And Dollar collapse is highly unlikely for that reason alone..

Syd 22:57 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Korea Fin Min: Will 'Act' To Maintain Forex Stability

hk ab 22:52 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Revdax//Yesterday looks like a miracle.

nyc Joel 22:52 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Hi Friends
Been away all day
Why did bond market perform so well today?
thanks

San Diego DC 22:50 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
BDR,
Thanks. Mine just came back, don't know how long it's going to last.

Rockford BDR 22:48 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Yeah DC
My whole class is having problems with em. No Daily or Weeklys available. Have fun

San Diego DC 22:45 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Does any one who uses E-signal charts have problem with their data feed now?
TIA

Tokyo IM 22:36 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Gmorning all.

SanFrancisco TG 22:36 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
The economy which is most impressive to me is Great Britain. 2.7% unemployment and whopping homeownership. I don't see a housing bubble, perhaps some pull back, but thats it, and trade should be strong. From the long term perspective, as the US "weak dollar" policy concludes, and economic condition hopefully overrides geo-political unrest, Sterling could dramatically outperform the Euro as it is clear the Eurozone is not going to progress past a certain point of performance under current restrictive structural format. It may grow GDP by acquisition perhaps, but that does not equate to inherent performance or per capita wealth.

At the end of this cycle, if all things align, logic may dictate a long term Eur/Gbp sell position.

KL KL 22:29 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
rats gbpusd short taken from 1.8596 at 1.8606...at least my sl is working today....-10...and angry

chicago joe 22:22 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
any targets for gbp retracement? TIA.

Sydney Ge11Ja 22:14 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Morning all, EUR/YEN im happy, AUD and NZD im stuffed. What do people expect will happen with AUD and NZD if China revalues please?

HCM MI 22:10 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
having been a resident of japan for two years, ones "feeling" for japanese economic policies are about as assured as charting saliva down the chin of a baby =) im long dollars too, but you can't predict BOJ intervention, sorry!

SanFrancisco TG 22:08 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Tarheel - No its an FX forum. We just have a guy who attacks every post I make, and they all have economic implication, because he cant handle the fact they are positive US conditions (and/or global trade). All of which are inevitably forex related. I receive many thanks for my posts, which are indepth. I seem to have a political stalker attacking my every entry. Even when I simply point out US data.

BEIRUT MK 22:07 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
HCM, i am not hoping for intervention, but i feel it
and by the way.. 90% of my feeling becomes true.

HCM MI 22:05 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
BERUIT, USD/JPY intervention looks like a tornado, not a dustbunny. you'll know it when you see it =)

Calabash TarHeel 22:03 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta-South 21:51 GMT November 17, 2004
Ah, the POLITICAL FORUM must have been deleted. Maybe they just changed places.

Ah, The Good Ole Days, This was a Fx Forum.

BEIRUT MK 22:02 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
i had a feeling that boj will interveen today..

Stockholm AGuy 21:54 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 21:25 GMT: "I don't think you get it."

Oh, but I do. That's what has you so upset.

"This is a formal US House indigtment of Annan, Chirac,
and others"

As you would say, "nice try". All along, I've been
explicitly commenting your post SanFrancisco TG 20:17
GMT, which doesn't mention any of those... errr...
dignitaries, and only deals with the "news" about
Saddam's payments to the families of Palestinian
suicide bombers. Nothing else.

The subject which you are now trying to switch to is
the matter of another post of yours, which I (so far)
haven't commented at all.

"if you don't like the facts due to your political
beliefs"

Dear TG, it is evident that you have no idea whatsoever
about my "political beliefs" (in spite of some fairly
clear hints scattered across the archive). It's sad
that whoever dares point out your all too frequent
factual errors and misunderstandings immediately gets
labeled as a political opponent (presumably some kind
of euro-commie).

Did it really never occur to you that you are not
helping your "cause" the least by projecting such an
obsessive and blatantly incompetent image? I'm almost
tempted to conjecture that you are a die-hard Nader fan
impersonating the caricature of a conservative redneck...

Atlanta-South 21:51 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Ah, the POLITICAL FORUM must have been deleted. Maybe they just changed places.

Mfld JM 21:50 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
IN short gbp/usd at 1.8595

Ldn 21:48 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Oil-for-Food Probe Includes Annan's Son

Kojo Annan, to the Switzerland-based firm, Cotecna, which from 1999 onward worked on contract for the U.N. monitoring the shipments of Oil-for-food supplies into Iraq.
.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan and his staff have excused themselves from any responsibility for the massive corruption involving billions in bribes and kickbacks that went on via more than $100 billion in U.N.-approved contracts for Saddam to sell oil and buy humanitarian supplies. U.N. officials have denied that this tidal wave of graft in any way seeped into their own shop, or that they even had time to notice it was out there. They were too busy making the world a better place

Livingston nh 21:32 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Sydney mentioned the move from bunds into treasuries - this does not seem to make sense from a rate perspective but if German leaks of news or actions are still around it might make sense to protect against a EUR move // IMO Treas Sec Snow (Baker's spitting contest w/ the Germans in 1987 came to mind) seemed a bit haughty in his dismissal of currency concerns this AM in London - maybe some kind of warning shot across the bow might be forthcoming

Ldn 21:31 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG and this is why France declined to go to war.

KL KL 21:29 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
in short gbpusd at 1.8596

Dallas GEP 21:28 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
OK the plan is to close EUR/USD shorts @ +20 @ 1.3017, EUR/GBP shorts @ +20, USD/CHF SHorts @ BE and AUD/USD shorts @ +20

SanFrancisco TG 21:25 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
I don't think you get it. This is a formal US House indigtment of Annan, Chirac, and others of dealings with Hussein and indirectly terror, in exchange for money. This doesn't even have Bush's hand on it.

You don't think this has large economic implication? You think this is just a tabloid hype piece? You think its limited to Hussein and a few Palestinian suicide bombers?

Wish what you will. Say what you will. As usual the facts are different, and the implications are large or I wouldn't say anything. So, if you don't like the facts due to your political beliefs, don't read them. Others have already emailed me thanking me for the information. Bye bye.

knoxville dan-k 21:24 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
well it is old, old news that this was going on, it only recently came to light that he was using the humanitiarian aid money to fund this

Toronto Waverider 21:23 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Breaking NEWS: TG "owned" by Stockholm. TG was unavailable for comment.

Stockholm AGuy 21:19 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 21:05 GMT: "Believe what you choose."

Look TG, I've stated no belief; I've given you a link
(to Fox, for crying out loud!) carrying the same story
more than two and a half years ago. Still, you want to
call it "news". Who's peddling beliefs here?

"I'm sure some here took note of some of the logic in
my sentiments"

Interesting construct that, logic in sentiments... Care
to elucidate?

"regarding this legitimate, massive, and developing issue"

Years ago, mainstream media reported that a now deposed
dictator used to pay the families of Palestinian suicide
bombers. Yes, the story was legitimate. To Israelis, I'm
sure it was massive, too. But how can it be "developing"
today?

"(not a tabloid spot as you wish to make it seem)."

I said not one word about tabloids. I did mention Fox. If
you consider Fox news tabloid material, then so be it.

"I hope those people are considering the global economic
consequenses."

Of "news" from March 2002...?

SanFrancisco TG 21:05 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm. Thats fine. Believe what you choose. I'm sure some here took note of some of the logic in my sentiments regarding this legitimate, massive, and developing issue (not a tabloid spot as you wish to make it seem). I hope those people are considering the global economic consequenses.

Good day gents. Back tomorrow.

knoxville dan-k 21:04 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
i think they called it a humanitairian aid program

Toronto Waverider 21:04 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Lol, TG like clockwork. Pathetic.

knoxville dan-k 21:04 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
yea and the real bithc of it all was money he got from the UN for food and health care -- lol

Stockholm AGuy 21:01 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 20:54 GMT: "Stokholm - "recycled"?."

Yes, obviously. It's the same story all over again: Saddam paid up to 25000 USD to the family of each Palestinian suicide bomber. It's been known and published by mainstream media for years. If somebody tries to present it as "news" now, what do you call it if not recycling?

"Nice try."

? Try to do what?

"These issues of historic proportion"

Namely?

BEIRUT MK 21:00 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
hold long usdjpy at 104.21,
added long usdjpy at 103.88 target 107

also, hold short gbpusd at 1.8565 stop 1.8640

will short audjpy at 81.40 target 80 stop 81.70

SanFrancisco TG 20:58 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Totonto - Thats an amazing viewpoint. Everything is "made in hollywood" eh? In that case I better not pay attention to economic data either.

Toronto Waverider 20:55 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
There is no news in the US, only infotainment lol. Or propaganda, call it what you wish.

KL KL 20:55 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
last out usdchf at 1.1627 +1 measly pip...still good.

We are now all conditioned to sell USD on good US data...so time to think reverse pretty soon. One of them will move 200-400 pips...everything is either at top of hill or bottom of valley...I know if I fall ....one of them will hurt a lot more!gl gt for today!

HCM MI 20:54 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
broker seems to have gone home for the day, low on USD/CHF please?

SanFrancisco TG 20:54 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Stokholm - "recycled"?. Nice try. These issues of historic proportion move in steps. You'll be seeing a lot more from this over the next months. It isn't just a "news item".

Bruxville Jim 20:50 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
1) KL KL 19:53 GMT November 17, 2004
OK back again for some action...very good levels ...without thinking much
long usdjpy 103.88
long usd chf 1.1626
short eurusd 130.41
short gbpusd 1.8590

all sl 7 pips for few pip gain to start new day


2) KL KL 20:43 GMT November 17, 2004
2nd out the ranks out gbpusd at 1.8582....I think some pop coming soon +8.

3rd eurusd at 35 from 41 +6

usd chf nearly took me out...lets see

////
What the xxxx, my platforms made lows (bid) around 1.1605 during the time between your posts...
lucky you:)

Dallas GEP 20:50 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
YES Tom I am along with usd/chf longs, eur/gbp shorts and aussie shorts

Antwerp Tom 20:47 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GEP are you still holding on to your € short? GL

Antwerp Tom 20:46 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Out of € short 1.3038 -68 so be it

KL KL 20:43 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
2nd out the ranks out gbpusd at 1.8582....I think some pop coming soon +8.

3rd eurusd at 35 from 41 +6

usd chf nearly took me out...lets see

Spotforex NY 20:42 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
e

may the force be with you....happy trades!!!!

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:41 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm// You'll find US news tends to recycle old news when it can't muster up new news. I call the whole mess "cloned news" anyway..of little value as it's slanted ALWAYS in the media's percieved direction...never a real redering of real news.

Bonn Karl, you are probably right on my closing early at 1.3030 (1.3034 plus bank's 4 pips). For new traders, let's use this as an example of closing techniques and errors/successes associated with them. Remember I guess-timated the critical point triggering proposed € seller feaver at 1.3065 so I usually close a little before what I consider to be "showtime" so as to keep what profit I've made without having to pay pullback rent/remorse..30 pips risked today for even a very possible fall back to yesterday's 1.2950 dosn't add up..so I didn't risk the 30 pips.

Big € sellers in middle Europe are staged at 1.3050ish to 1.3150ish I hear from trusted source, so it could collapse as that € "killing field" range has played out, well BELOW 1.3030 which is what I'm betting on to add cheaper Euros to my collection again. All that taken, €/$ is in my view very ready to retrace at this point so I obeyed instinct and took today's profit. The trend of couse is UP so I can reload at any time really, trends are friends, likely at the first meaningful dip if we have one if I forget about retrace for the moment. We've already had small retraces if could call those small dips at 10/26 & 11/8 involving some 150-175 pips. If we have another small dip of 100-150 pips @ 1.2960 or so I'll buy some Euros. Maybe this will help some new traders a bit.

Spotforex// Thanks for the post. You're a pro and one of my super stars on this forum...what's your view of ECB intervention..is it just jawboning, will they do it a little to scare off Euro bulls or go whole hog and make a total arse of themselves only to have USD bust through their doors like an angry pit bull and gnaw on the shins? BTW is there an online page which has your recent interview in Futures Mag.?

London e 20:37 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
I certainly don't think USD/CHF has reached its low yet, actually it might never have a bottom. But for the year it may have. Or at least this week. IMO

istanbul shorunmu 20:35 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone project a low for the USD/CHF cross for say 3 months or so? I think it could be rewarding around these levels just as you have mentioned. gt gl

Spotforex NY 20:33 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
e

market tops and bottoms are usually accompanied by sharp, volatile price swings...We have not seen this just yet as the dollar decline has been 'orderly' so far.......It gets whippy as we enter the second phase of intervention......we are still in the first phase - verbal, which is losing its effectiveness.....


happy hunting

spot

Dallas GEP 20:31 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
YEp...the SWISS adrenaline train....GO MAN GO

Stockholm AGuy 20:31 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 20:17 GMT : "In case some outside US media are unaware, Congress has disclosed material record of Husseins financial contribution to terrorist families"

Actually, as someone outside the US, I'm mainly amused by how this ancient story is being recycled and treated as "news". Here's a link from March 202 which even you should appreciate, TG (it's Fox :-):

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,48822,00.html

London e 20:30 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
I think USD/CHF has just reached its low for the year.

London e 20:28 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
For a nice christmas bonus buy USD/CHF here. I got some at 1.1615. Stop at 1.1600

SanFrancisco TG 20:24 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
In addition, I should add that Congress (including Democrats) are on TV live right now announcing "shocking" dealings with Hussein by members of France (directly Chirac), Russia, and other UN members in funding Husseins efforts for bribes.

The net result of this is a positive for global economics and society, as the elements which have undermined the prosperity of all are being brought to answer.

From a purely economic perspective, this is a positive for global trade and stability in the end as corrupt elements are once again capcised.

I'll stop here.

knoxville dan-k 20:24 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
well looks like it may take out the 104 level again hummmm

Halifax CB 20:21 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
But don't forget the late afternoon profit-taking & covering...

knoxville dan-k 20:20 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
agree, and thanks for the input

Halifax CB 20:18 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
dan-k re. your 19:51; right now the first real retracement today for JPY seems to be underway; it would be looking good if it sustains (or at least reaches) the 104.15 level. Otherwise, you might get your wish sooner rather than later. But I think it'll come eventually. GL/GT....

SanFrancisco TG 20:17 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
In case some outside US media are unaware, Congress has disclosed material record of Husseins financial contribution to terrorist families, including some tied to AlQaeda.

Say what you will, but the Iraq situation is not a fabrication of US "neo-fascism" or a mistake of intelligence.

I say this not purely for political mention, but to point out that the US government and economy are not operating on the bed of toothpics recently portrayed by some if you haven't already come to terms with these facts.

From a purely economic standpoint, this equates to progressive motion for US economic stability, and global economic stability. If you are buying gold because you see a collapse, I'd think again.

What I assess we will see is continued Euro weakness, with a delayed reaction toward parity as US rates increase. In the mean time, US economics should remain robust though less than in 2004, while the EU economy should begin to make gains in latter 2005. The EU weakness is not the result of the weak USD.

Ironically, the circumstances are forcing the EU to implement modern flexible economic reform which will benefit the EU, and I am impressed with the ECB stance to not attempt to physically manipulate market forces, but rather look at other remedies to change the underlying strucure.

I get this sense global economics are moving as they should be.

KL KL 20:06 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
first of the ranks to collect is usdjpy out +16 at 104.04

fwiw - weak Dollar is good for US...US earns more than 55% of their money in overseas dollar....cannot be that bad for US. Look at DOW components...tell me a company that earns 60% of its income domestically. Maybe US wants it that way so that once sufficient money flows back ...bang...up interest rates repidly, USD up aggresively, deficit problem solve, funds moves more money back to recovery story...problem solve...other countries cannot complain...they then have to sell to their people weak dollar is GOOD + interest drop to stimulate growth...the madness repeats...LOL funny nomics!!

Dallas GEP 20:06 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Aussie has come down from those highs...looking for 7770-75

Dallas GEP 20:04 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
AVERAGE LONGS ON USD/CHF NOW 1.1636

Bonn Karl 19:53 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 19:34 GMT / you sold your 1.2900 a little early .... 1.3110/15 should see some sellers, but, on the other hand a good profit. gl

KL KL 19:53 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
OK back again for some action...very good levels ...without thinking much
long usdjpy 103.88
long usd chf 1.1626
short eurusd 130.41
short gbpusd 1.8590

all sl 7 pips for few pip gain to start new day

KL KL 19:53 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
OK back again for some action...very good levels ...without thinking much
long usdjpy 103.88
long usd chf 1.1626
short eurusd 130.41
short gbpusd 1.8590

all sl 7 pips for few pip gain to start new day

knoxville dan-k 19:51 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
where o where is the break down on the usd/jpy on to 103.50 come on

Bonn Karl 19:46 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
munchen ralph 19:39 GMT ... more like .... gold coast marLin. How are you losses coming along, still short aussie and oil at 0.7700, $40 respectively?? LOL LOL.

Sydney 19:44 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB not the person to ask, but surprised the different views coming out the EC . dont think UK are bothered.

munchen ralph 19:39 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
BONN KARL..a BIG PICTURE MAN? ..It is like giving a blind man a drivers licence....lol...

knoxville dan-k 19:38 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
naa, just burn everything, and have your car's stolen collect insurance and turn the money into gold-lol

Halifax CB 19:35 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Sydney re. your 19:22 - (or others with some knowlege of economic history) Wasn't competitive devaluation one of the causes of the Depression? Just curious; maybe I should sell everything out & stock up on unemployment insurance :).

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:34 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
BonnKarl// We're in concert on that one, I see you are a big picture man. I closed my 1.2900 to get a little quick profit & to go flat actually to see what chart wants to do. I agree retracements will likely be small ones..150-200 pips which would be quickly resolved again in a matter of a week or so even if the chart just followed the support line. But historically a 500 pipperoo a little more into this move could happenand without the slightest warning.

athens kos44 19:34 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
hi friends. Buy the eurusd below 1.30 1.2950. Next target is 1.3150. Follow the trent. Always the trent is our friend.
G T to all

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:28 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
manila stubbs 19:05 GMT November 17, 2004//Since the charts are snoozing, that's a good question...still pondering this myself. My written plan (I plan things on paper always in my logbook) says to reload either at 1.2875 given we incur the retrace (unless chart is obviously giving me continual shorting signals past 1.2875) or stay flat 'til 1.3130. Past 1.3130 certainly all the € sellers for the time being should be done with the feast which may trigger a correction in itself due to lack of Euro buy enthusiasm but at higher levels than Gecko + others + I thought. I realize that would be 100 pips "I could have had" but remember I had 130 pips at risk..so the risk outweighs the wager hence my closing of the more risky trade while I was ahead. And this 15% I'm using for faster in-out is my "raiding" capital only (never to be used for long term) and I still have a big chunk on 1.2420 tucked away as a Christmas present to pay for booze.

As this longing chart approaches the apex of 1.35-1.40 risk gets higher of a total reverse in mega 2 year trend. Then it's short city where if you enter a short and it blows back on you, just wait it out and it'll win; just as this year..if a long blew back, I just waited it out, it won and nicely, eventually.

Dublin Flip 19:27 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
So does Bofinger prefer rate hikes to treat inflation????
As has been evidenced by the past two days PPI and CPI numbers (as well as China's recently) inflation is again the imminent potential risk. A higher inflation rate would decimate all of europe not just one country's car makers.

Lndn Frnd 19:27 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
one hour ago heard Putin saying that russia army will be supplied with most sophisticated nuclear weapon does not & will not exist at any other country,reports comment , this weapon cannot help fighting terror, so what ?
financially it affects euro and jpy

Bonn Karl 19:24 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 18:46 / Retracements on eur/$ will be very shallow. Ever since the summer range breakout, L/T funds have been selling USD against the majors, and versus the medium term (in the hope they may get in on dips?). Anywhere between 1.2940/1.2845 is a buy, s/l 1.2825 and the target 132.95/133.40. Below 1.2825, good demand at 1.2735.

Sydney 19:22 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Germany's Bofinger Says ECB Should Sell Euros to Arrest Gains
Peter Bofinger, a member of Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's council of economic advisers, said the European Central Bank should sell euros to stem the currency's advance against the U.S. dollar, which threatens to derail Germany's recovery from three years of stagnation. ``The question is whether one must accept exchange-rate movements like a natural disaster or whether one has monetary policy instruments at one's disposal to do something about it,'' Bofinger said in an interview. ``Foreign-exchange market intervention is a very efficient instrument.'' The ECB hasn't sold euros to weaken the currency since it was introduced in January 1999. Policymakers are relying on ``verbal intervention'' rather than signaling their resolve to act in currency markets, economists including Harvinder Kalirai, market analyst in Sydney at State Street Corp., have said. ECB council member John Hurley said today in an interview policy makers are ``disappointed'' about the slower-than-expected pace of economic growth in the region. Sudden movements in exchange rates ``are damaging to economic growth,'' he said. The euro-region's $9 trillion economy is slowing as the currency's appreciation to a record against the dollar hurts earnings prospects for exporters including Siemens AG. The euro climbed to $1.3047 today, the highest since the currency's introduction in 1999
``I'm asking myself whether it makes sense to behave towards the exchange rate as one does towards a volcano, to watch helplessly as it emits puffs of smoke, calms down and erupts again, doing damage,'' Bofinger said. bloomberg.

Halifax CB 19:17 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
USDJPY; have been looking at the dailies for USDJPY - intersting that 103.7 (0r thereabouts) is the 1.62 retracement off the June low to the July high,though still above the 103.42 low in March. If that holds overnight (or a bit longer) it might be worth looking for a rise higher into the mid 104's. If it doesn't, we could be headed into the high 90's (either as a continuation of the same basic formation to the 2.62 retracement, or the H&S formation that peaked in May).Anyway, right now it's a very risky trade either way. My 0.02 Cdn :)

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:11 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Historically on a power move like we're into now looking at 3 year chart for E/$, a retrace can mean anything from 200-500 pips & totally unpredictable as to profundity. In proportion to our rise from 1.22 (800 pips) I'd say something like 200-300 pips retrace would be expected if we retrace significantly at all. All power moves for this pair over 3 years involved one retrace before the whole 1000-1500 pips were attained and normally it occurred midway.

Observe the support line from 10/12 gains 23 pips a day like clockwork (trading day or not) so in 9 days if we retrace 200 pips it means the price comes down to today's price again...(9 days X 23 pips per day=207 pips) could flat eat up the retrace to exactly present day value....neither gaining nor losing anything from today's price. Each day we don't have retrace is 23 pips more for the chart's overall move. Helsinki's view of not seeing any abatement is my view also but if you check the 3 year 1 day chart, there was hardly ever any warning of a retrace when a retrace happened...it just happened abruptly. Boom.

manila stubbs 19:05 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
valdez, just out of curiosity, if in case the retrace doesnt happen and it goes past 1.3065, will you buy back the amount you unloaded earlier - which is 15% of your total if i remember correctly? if so, at what point would you decide you were mistaken and jump back onboard?

Halifax CB 18:54 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Valdez - thx for your 18:12 post; almost missed it. Sleeping it off, errr, power napping....

gold coast martin 18:51 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Van jv 18:46 GMT November 17, 2004
An exact repeat of last year...g/t

Halifax CB 18:50 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki - re your 18:23 post - ccy's all behave differently. USDCAD has a history of strong, relatively fast, and well-behaved retracements; USDJPY recently tends to perform more like a rock falling into mud....Recently EURUSD has been well behaved w/r to it's support. It's the predictability that matters more than the direction....

London. 18:47 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
The EUR/USD above 1,3000 - will it last?
JPY pushing its weight around as USD vs. Asia will come into increasing focus as we near this weekend’s G-20 meeting.

JPY may press strongly across the board.
s.a.x.o

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:46 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw 18:23 GMT November 17, 2004// You're correct in doubting €/$ move is abated. The overall move is not abating. A pull back or two can happen or not happen however; Gecko & I agree it's not probable (though possible) to go straight up to 1.32 with no retrace, & a retrace is relatively small compared to the whole move itself which is why I didn't liqidate my 1.2420 possie but did my 1.2900 possie. A 200 pip retrace wouldn't scare me in the slightest on my 1.2420. We're talking 200 pips compared to 1,200 or more for the total move from 1.22.

Pull up a 1 year fxtrek chart. See how the present move is curving off to the right? That indicates a POSSIBLE correction is imminent. Key word is "possible". Also consider as the pair approaches an apex in the 10 year USD cycle itself compared to USD crosses with CHF & AUD (forget the €/$ cycle..it's synthesized although the cycle compares to those majors) we've possibly got some 500-800 pips to go yet for the chart to totally top out to begin 3 years of reversal (EZ will love that).That's 5-8 cents more down for the USD. 1.30+8=1.38. It could be more as well. 1.38 is the absolute top on my model but that's iffy because it's the extreme yet synthesized on the €/$ chart based on USD action on other majors. Frankly I believe the synthesized chart's validity.

Retracement at this stage can happen haphazzardly, so any talk including mine of retracement time window is pure speculation, nothing more, & the fact it's "due" doesn't matter, it just puts the percentages more in favor of a temporary correction. Gecko and I are more chartist than fundamentalist. Jay of GV however is more fundamentalist and his point of view would at this time be super welcome. What think Jay?

My overall Euro possie is still in place, I only closed a tight-in bought high at 1.2900n that said "take me now".

Van jv 18:46 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin////What about your cherished AUD???
0.800 firstfollowed by a shallow retracement?

Boulder DAT 18:40 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
I'm hearing a little bit of chatter about options barriers around the 103.50 area in $/¥.. Seems that this area is getting close to being hit. The trend for the day has been ever so gradually down. No real moves to the upside where someone has taken profit. Certainly if there were any options barriers at the 103.5 level, the defenders don't have much muscle. I'm almost expecting a stop related move in the next few moments.

Helsinki iw 18:36 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Cheers ML, had USD/JPY target at 103.30/40 but not sure anymore. Good trading, I´m off for social duties, so speak later.

Syd 18:34 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk totally agree with that, especially farmers they dont bother , the Aud normally sticks into a range so they dont think its only when they read the press they start to panic -John Anderson the Deputy PM will be the one shouting the loudest because he deals with rural community.

ICT ML 18:33 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw 18:23 GMT November 17, 2004

Well IW, we need these guys to keep selling spikes for the move to keep going........so let them have at it mate. Eventually they will get it right and see a pullback.

I was talking to another distinguished forum member the other day about buying $CAD for a run up. We pretty much agreed that 1.1970 had to hold dips if the $$$ correction was to be real.....and then it crashed right through like butter. So market has declared now is not the time for a correction IMHO.

knoxville dan-k 18:30 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
above 104

knoxville dan-k 18:30 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
hay Dallas, u think the shorts are loading the boat on the upticks on usd/jpy?

knoxville dan-k 18:28 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
hummm break below 104 again,

nyc jk 18:24 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish 17:46 GMT November 17, 2004
Syd...Any good corporate treasurer would hedge exposure.

Irish, I don't have as much first hand knowledge as I used to on this matter, but hearing some indications Aussie exporters are underhedged in aggregate. During the "Asian Crisis" when AUD first started to get hammered a lot of them hedged out 5-10 years just under .70 cents thinking they were getting bargain levels. Then when AUD proceeded to drop another 15 percent or so and their earnings were significantly lower than if they didn't hedge there was an outcry from the shareholders and some of the boards of directors that they overhedged, etc etc. In fact some of the companies bought so much AUD and it dropped so fast so quickly that their credit ratings were cut. Now I am sure that in the not too distant future there will again be outcries from the shareholders and some of the boards because they are underhedged and the AUD has gone up dramatically LOL.

Helsinki iw 18:23 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Can anybody explain the frenzy to enter long dollar positions for a rebound? Because I can´t see any sign of this move abating just yet. Which doesn´t mean that that wont happen.

Much safer in mind to have disciplined stops in place and when there is evidence of a top, enter a much lower risk trade. Sure you may miss a few points, but so what. This is a blow-off move that can stretch way longer in pips before turning.

If you traded the 1987 stock crash on margin and bought one day early, you got the call even though you were right in the end.

hk ab 18:21 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
nt//thanks for your reply. Sorry for making you sleep late.

hong kong nt 18:14 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
AB -- t/p AUD at .76, left A/J to run, as to local property mkt, current uptrend is largely driven by flooding liquidity which may be reduced in coming months, and guess HSI may peak at 14500-14700...

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:12 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 17:55 GMT November 17, 2004//It's hard to say what true "pain threshold" is for ECB/Trichet & Co. because they double talk so much...therefore it's hard to say what the "comfort zone" is. I personally don't think ECB will intervene like they said they would last Spring and that's backed by a lot of experts. Last Spring they said pain threshold was 1.32. Then they cry. Then they said forget that, EZ is doing fine on its own, we have good inter-EZ trade thank you, who needs to worry about USD. Then within weeks they turned around saying the opposite again. Wishey washy punks in my op. I'd give mid Dec (30 days from now) as a good shot PAST 1.32 especially (parallel with Gecko whom I respect highly) if we get a retrace to power it up. All a retrace is a retest of lower chart limits..if the retest fails then obviously that means interest of U$D buyers is exhausted leaving € buyers in control by default.

knoxville dan-k 18:09 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
yep went back on monthleys and saw that go back a little futher and look at the 101 ish levels usd//jpy

dc fxq 18:08 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
lLdn 17:56 GMT November 17, 2004
USD fell below Y104 for the first time since early April

April 1st low was in the 103.40/.55 range to be precise.

Van jv 18:06 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 17:58///Thanks --I like your disciplne----I got into this FF frenzy on ST trades and contras and failed--seems that some never learn

sofia anmart 18:02 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
08:23 GMT November 17, 2004
EUR/JPY-136.25. We sell at the market for 135.55 and 134.85.

hk ab 17:59 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
nt//finally it's a decision making exercise. :D Congrat. to your great long aud possie. hey, what's your view on hk property again? sorry for bothering.

sofia anmart 17:59 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
14:59 GMT On November 5, 2004 we said:
DJIA - next target 10 600.

hong kong nt 17:58 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
AB -- finally arrive at our MT long usd/jpy level at 103...

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:58 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Van jv 17:45 GMT November 17, 2004// NO, I'm not giving up on 1.28 retracement, I support it. How? I just SOLD my €s for $ plan is to re-enter at bottom of forthcoming retracement. I still have my 1.2420 possie however; Dec 30 is close target ..1.32 or higher. My burro agrees so it's set in stone. I place 2 types of plays..long-long term involving month's of time & shorter term involving weeks. I just closed my short term. My targets on long term are normally never changed. I closed a "tight in" 1.2900 today...the 130 pips profit at risk in my op. Hope that clears that up for you.

lLdn 17:56 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
USD fell below Y104 for the first time since early April

Dublin Flip 17:55 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Syd that story premise is simplistic rubbish as it looks at the ozzie in isolation. The ozzie has rallied for a reason. Check out commodities and gold baby. Look at Aussie/Asia???? Aud/Jpy for example is exactly the same @ 81c as it was 18 months ago and has traded in a very small +/-5% of that over the past 18months. The ozzie stock market (which is heavily weighted with exporters) is also the best performing bourse.
I'd say the journo shouldn't get his fourteen yearold kid to write his copy.

Halifax CB 17:55 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Re Euro - that comfort zone (around 40-50 pips above the support) is now about 50% of what it was in early October. I don't know about how others feel, but right now there does seem to be a possibility of an end to the EURUSD rise a little ahead of 1.31, say early Dec. Is that what you are seeing Valdez? Don't see anything similar elsewherre, but then again I haven't looked. 2 weeks is a long time for me :)

Dallas GEP 17:51 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
I think you right Irish, howver hedging of course greatly limits profit potential along with of course limiting risk exposure

Syd 17:50 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Chicargo Irish
That was a headline in several of last weeks Australian Press

Dollar surge 'costing $3.5bn'
LOCAL farmers have lost almost $3.5 billion in the past 18 months – and it has nothing to do with the rain.

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:48 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Any country which wants to devaluate their c'ncy in hopes of reaping benefits can buy an already devaluating c'ncy vis a vis USD -ONLY IF- they feel the USD will further devaluate. They must 1st rid themselves of "percieved" evaluating or stagnant c'ncy, vis a vis el €. We can look for some range volitility under 1.32 as this buy-sell frenzie proceeds. Frenzie? Some CBs & big money want to profit at higher risk, some don't. The ton of € sell orders of some new EU members which I'm informed of, set to execute "around" 1.31 (over & under), is a powerful indicator that some commonly known entity among those CBs is the pivoting factor. Hence my own close minutes ago of a tight-in 1.2900 possie.

Chicago Irish 17:46 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Syd...Any good corporate treasurer would hedge exposure.

Van jv 17:45 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 17:24---not so smart as you--entangled in that 1.24.1.27 area ----17:24 note gives impression of giving up on 1.28 retracement, just waiting 8+- days, /...?to reload

Syd 17:44 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish when ANZ bank called for 80cents 95% of analyst were saying you wont see 75cent again this side of XMas so I doubt it

houston ken 17:43 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
traders dont let the word of intervention fool you. this guys are out there to protect free market . dollar i think gets what it deserve for now unless we see otherwise. $7 trillion and record amount of defecit, give me a break.

Chicago CME 17:41 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dallas -system funds are already in. Discretionary types have been waiting for the pull back that never came. Finally biting the bullet. Not sure how much further it could go, but you'd have to think most of today's move is over......

Halifax CB 17:41 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Valdez; EURUSD seems happiest when it's about 50 pips off the celebrated support line. Alas, it tends to move sideways (rather than down) when it's feeling too exposed. It looks that after the latest banging around, that range is still going to hold..GL - 8 to 10 days can be a long time :)

Chicago Irish 17:39 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Syd...I'm sure the big players have hedged.

Syd 17:39 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
RBA also has a habit of entering the market to top up its reserves.

Dallas GEP 17:38 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Thnaks CME...when will that thirst for AUSSIE be satisfied because I know of several large specs that are selling the shittt out of it (although I am sure quite small in comparison)????

Syd 17:36 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Last week when Aud at 76
Dollar surge 'costing $3.5bn'
LOCAL farmers have lost almost $3.5 billion in the past 18 months – and it has nothing to do with the rain.
The strengthening dollar, and the falling United States dollar, have combined to eat into the profit margins of the nation's export earners Together, farmers and miners account for more than two thirds of Australia's exports

houston ken 17:36 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
dollar is berish dollar is berish traders listen

Dallas GEP 17:35 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Well Valdez, I will close at +30 pips although we are having some bids at 1/3020 but I think they are running out of buyers here IMO.

Chicago CME 17:34 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dallas - CTA's continue to buy AUD -Have been for weeks. FWIW.

Halifax CB 17:33 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GEP - it'll be interesting (and depressing :) if CAD does it's usual and retraces up into the 1.1980's and beyond....

Dallas GEP 17:33 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
OK WTF is going on with AUSSIE????? The stochs and MACD's are absolutely maxed out. Market could be trying to absorb a large buy order or something THEN this BS should short

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:31 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GEP// So you haven't closed your E/$ shorts yet. Chart looks like has airspace to 1.2995 but maybe after NY close, if support line from 10/12 means anything at this stage. What think?

Chicago CME 17:30 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Buying 2/3 pos of $/Can around 1.1940. stop below 1.1870.

Helsinki iw 17:29 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
There are growing rumblings that a number of ASEAN countries are contemplating a major policy shift from recycling their C/A surpluses into dollars at low interest to their respective domestic economies. This would include China and would of course have a strong effect on their exchange rates.
Could be why USD/JPY is so offered. Strong support at 103.30/40, if broken the old low at 101+ is next. But if both were to go, USD/JPY could really be on the move.

Other effects from the said policy shift would be falling exporter stocks, but rising banks, brokers, construction and retail sectors. And a falling EUR/USD?

knoxville dan-k 17:28 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
thanks Dallas, will keep stops

Dallas GEP 17:26 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dan RE: usd/jpy, not sure seems like that WE are going to let it gradually do down mode is in play UNLESS we get some USD buying and THEN that LOW should hold. I think tho it will print 103.50/60 in next 12 hours

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:24 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
I'm estimating my re-entry into Euros approx 8-10 trading days from today. Why? Immediate future I see range trading from 1.2980-1.3065 taking up rest of this week & next week. At 1.3065 a lot of Euro sell orders will either have been hit or will soon be hit..maybe some even higher, depending on the range/volume/day. I would be very surprised to see 1.31 hit without a fierce $ bull fight and 1.32 without a retrace as Gecko said is improbable. But FX does offer surprises. I was one of the suckers who waited for a retrace to 1.22 from 1.24. then waited to 12.50. then 1.26. Fortunately I put 1/2 of my cap on 1.2420...another 15% on 1.2900, but waiting to enter passing 1.25 and beyond was stupidity and willingness to conform to mainstream BS soothsayers... also, earning my "error of the year" award.

Dallas GEP 17:23 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Well SYD I hope he has bought all the AUSSIE he wants.

knoxville dan-k 17:23 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
r we over or going to 103.50

knoxville dan-k 17:23 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
any short term opnions for today on usd jpy?

Dallas GEP 17:22 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
NOTE to newbies: CB's comment regrading wide stops on usd/cad. This pair can be very nasty

Syd 17:20 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP probably here some noise in Asia re Aud exporter

Halifax CB 17:18 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Closed shorts EURUSD, now looking for short USDCAD - wide stops on this one.

Chicago CME 17:17 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
I'll be interesting to see if $/can sets the tone for a possible reversal in the big dollar's fortunes over the coming days.

Dallas GEP 17:17 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
OK eur/usd shorts workin well along with eur/gbp shorts. AUSSIE shorts SUCK for now but probable delayed reaction

Dallas Mauricio 17:17 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Done for the day. On the right side of cable for a total of +78 pips. New York session still stinks. GL/GT everyone & I wll see you tomorrow.

Halifax CB 17:13 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Re. yen, I glanced back over some charts; I may be wrong but it looks that after a sharp move like this morning's it can take a day or so before it starts any sort of retracement, and the meantime it's anyone's guess....

HK [email protected] 17:10 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Looks like yen really goes to 102.30

HK Kevin 17:09 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Closed short EUR/JPY position at 135.49. Plan to resell tomorrow around 135.80

SanFrancisco TG 17:07 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Gold futures and yen futures remain up, $yen downside still under pressure near the probable ranges of exhaustion.

HK [email protected] 17:06 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 16:51 GMT November 17, 2004

Right!!! The women are driving us to do this or that.

But if women will know that a ring they wear, might be made of gold removed from a corpse by grave robbers (YaaaKY), they will have it substituted long time ago!!!

Halifax CB 17:00 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GEP - in there with you, targetting the 1.301 area first (I wish, but the last one did ok) - Houston Ken - it's just financial foreplay Lol - no, first of all mine are small trades, and good practice. But also the big moves are relatively rare, and there's plenty of money to be made (or lost) on counter moves.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:58 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Made the phone call, sold €/$ possie 1.2900 @ 1.3030, +130 pips (bank took 4 pips as normal). Keeping 1.2420 possie on day-to-day basis.
Reason for action: I think retrace is about to pop given propriatory info from Central Europe & past history of this pair at this level of the move (half cooked). 1.3065ish on my model is critical for 150-300 pip retrace, didn't want to risk my entire 1.2900 position for another 30 some pips to see it dissolve to 1.28+. Can re-enter then. I think being flat at this time is best for me 'til the retrace happens (if it happens! LOL)..from a position trader's point of view. Each day my support line advances average of 23 pips/day so €/$ 1.3065 isn't far off amigos. I think that level is extremely critical for position traders. We won't see 1.31 I don't believe without a big $ bull fight.

houston ken 16:58 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
yes the can and it cost them sometimes

Dallas Mauricio 16:57 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Because they can!

Wien GD 16:54 GMT November 17, 2004
houston ken ... why are some old men looking for young girls?

Wien GD 16:54 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
houston ken ... why are some old men looking for young girls?

HCM MI 16:54 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
there are trend traders and then there are oscillaTORS, trends always bend in the end. Long dollars now because I'm a system trader =)

London. 16:53 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dollar fall could be plausible if the economy was sinking , but its not the EU is , therefore the Administration is manipulating it until they are ready to say enough, which I would imagine for this run is not too far away , only due to the pressure from around the world which will be intense at the weekend, so wouldnt be surprised the next two days we have Van Gecko's dollar recovery coming into the weekend letting Snow off the hook

houston ken 16:51 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
why are some traders trading against major trend ie buying dollar ??/

SanFrancisco TG 16:51 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
RF - haha, you may have pinpointed the driving force of economic conditions.

houston st 16:47 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   

GEP -- not to second-guess you, but .65/80 range may be better...good luck with it...

HK [email protected] 16:46 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Budapest GH 16:36 GMT November 17

Sounds logical. But do you remember the price of gold during the Iraq invasion???
Do not forget that gold is the same commodity passing almost undestructible from hand to hand.

On top of that we have some sort of inflation where people do not have enough money to buy gold products.
I posted, that during the last Diwali, sales drop 20 to 25 %%%
Another big move in gold, and you do not see any more jewelry stores. All will be molten, and women will find a subsitute to enhance their beauty.

Los Angeles ss 16:44 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Gep, what is your target on your EURO sell short term?

hk ab 16:43 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
RF//USD may continue the fall. But what if a several year bull run of DOWJ starts here? after a break of double top myth?

SanFrancisco TG 16:41 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
My suggestion is not to load up on purchases of USD/JPY.

Los Angeles ss 16:41 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Thoughts on EURUSD at these levels for short term trade?

Dallas GEP 16:40 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Shorted euro 1.3037

HK [email protected] 16:40 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Yen has some chances to go to 102.30 from here after spending time near 104.

houston ken 16:37 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
a trend is a trend otherwise reverses i have been selling dollar on any strength .

Budapest GH 16:36 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Gold at 360 sounds unrealistic taking into consideration price pressures and geopolitical turbulence.

SanFrancisco TG 16:36 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Yen futures are up about 115. At this point the upside becomes strained. $Yen should develop a short term base around these levels.

HK [email protected] 16:34 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
hk ab
This can help the Dow.

Nymex Crude 45.45

But a strong Ret. in gold can do too help the Dow.

Emotions are running now high.

If gold will backs off 445. some analysts predict a fall to 360.

orlando jcr 16:34 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Gh & Quito,

CNBC just made the same suggestion...
They in fact said to wait 24 hours to see where the market really was heading.

Dallas GEP 16:33 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Suggest if you are not in, better to stay out IMO>

Dallas GEP 16:32 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Well platform operators in stop hunt mode. Be Careful. Barely got aussie stop OUT of way. Soory guys....very tricky price action.

Budapest GH 16:30 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Market is wild. Wait for normal volatility, or assume risking more.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:30 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
I'm told there is a bunch of Euro sell orders at 1.30-1.31 in some newer member EU CBs. The closer €/$ gets to 1.3065 the riskier any long positions (such as mine) get before the typical retrace. This event if viable may, if done agressively or automatically instead of letting off the pressure slowly, be the ticket for which we're waiting, i.e. retrace 150-200 pips to buy cheap €s at 1.28xx for the upswing to 1.32, and the retrace Gecko & I postulated below that's due. But as GEP said, hold off on positioning for a bit. This could either be a juicy short for 150-200 pips coming up or a premature "elation".

hk ab 16:25 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 16:05 GMT November 17, 2004

That's what I am paying attention at the moment too.....

Dallas GEP 16:22 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Sorry TP on AUSSIE short 7770

SanFrancisco TG 16:19 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
US Industrial Production Y/Y is near 6% growth which is near the higher end of the last 15 years. Logic dictates a temporary pause toward 4% in the near future, but it will not indicate a slowing of US economics unless it is related to a terror event or other unordinary effect considering current conditions.

Dallas GEP 16:18 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
OK got aussie short a little early.....but stop @ 7841 and TP @ 7975

orlando jcr 16:15 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
My 16:06...

Oops, I meant .8560, but that is moot.
It looks like it is on the upswing through the mid BB on the 5 minute chart.

BEIRUT MK 16:13 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd at 1.8565 stop 1.8640

Hong Kong Qindex 16:09 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is likely to be challenged within the next 24 hours.

Dallas Mauricio 16:07 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
LOL

GOES B747 16:02 GMT November 17, 2004
Dear Qindex,

please add warning to your posts "Kids, do not try that at home" :-)

orlando jcr 16:06 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Thoughts on shorting cable from ~1660...?

HK [email protected] 16:05 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dow near an important 10600 level. will it close tonight above or will close _not ???
What may push the Dow above 10600: a dollar rebound or a collapse of the dollar???

Hong Kong Qindex 16:04 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 16:02 GMT - You are right! Cheers!

GOES B747 16:02 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dear Qindex,

please add warning to your posts "Kids, do not try that at home" :-)

gt

RIGA RIA 16:02 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
RIKSBANK ROSENBERG: Must tighten monetary policy,Unclear when rate hike would be appropriate , Inflation outlook essentailly unchanged since Oct

RIGA RIA 16:01 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
EURCZK slowly slide to 31.20 but conditions now tights, expect hold 31.20/31.50 range at mom...GL

Hong Kong Qindex 16:00 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
manila stubbs 15:57 GMT - Thank you for your compliment.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:00 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 15:41 GMT November 17, 2004
Good point..all should read. I agree 100%. The point I was making however was that everything cycles. The point you made is that those cycles' rate of change is more important than the "stand in" values as you so aptly put it. Tks again!!

BTW, ref.: globally controlled FX rates...That would mean there would be NO FX TRADING. Ppersonally I feel that concept of zero variance in currencies (flat line charts) is a precurser to Euroizing the globe entirely. Don't let it happen if you want to see FX in 2015.

Budapest GH 15:59 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Attn DTs. We might see some dollar short covering. Concentrate on cable 1,8550 +/- 10 pips stop level 1,8585

manila stubbs 15:57 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:20 GMT November 17, 2004
GBP/JPY : 193.05 is the next target.

193.08 low on my system. absolutely amazing.

Dallas GEP 15:53 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Shorted AUSSIE @ 7815

Antwerp Tom 15:53 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, thanks i was actually joking, at the end of the day we are all trying to figure out if any news or interpretation of it could affect forex or not (in the smaller picture of course)
In the bigger picture there are more important things than fx. GL

Dallas GEP 15:52 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Shorted eur/gbp @ 7022

BEIRUT MK 15:51 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
close short gbpusd from 1.8549 at 1.8530
will short again if break of 1.8512

GOES B747 15:50 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
moved s/l for EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY to block +++600pips; will make my mind on Friday if move up without retracement is possible.


gt all

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:50 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Perrie como// That's why I don't day trade FX. Let's take a small position trade example. Say if I long right now, tgt 1.3100. Suppose it shorts for a week or two. Then it hits my target (as it inevitibly will). I make say 80-90 pips. If I put a lousey $10k of my capital on the bet, how much have I made in dollars in hand with 50:1 leverage at 80 pips? A lot. So it's very wise to encourage new traders to investigate swing (several days to a week) and position trading (several weeks to months) as the risks are less and profits still excellent. I think way-way too much emphasis is put on pip raiding and day trading on this forum yet this is not to negate raiding and day trading, there is LOTS of $ to be made in it obviously, but that's all the new trader sees here. I realize many pip raiders also swing and possie trade but those trades never show up on this forum, weighting emphasis unfairly on the most risky of all trading, FX pip raiding.

melbourne farmacia 15:46 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom - Suggest each trader undertakes short course in architecture drafting, understand lines, perspective, channels etc.. Apply skills to chart mapping…. Then buy / sell once ccy hits a line regardless of big picture bullish / bearish nature. Example gbp at 1.8630.. . . To answer your question.. not important. GT

perrie como 15:46 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Yes Qindex...saw that, but if the market stays this way, there will be a generalized sell-off the dollar race.

Smells really as LTCM...at 5 pct losses they were saying now It stops, then at 10 then at 20 times leverage was the catastrophe.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:45 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market is trading below 1.8522.

BEIRUT MK 15:44 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
will add more short of gbpusd if we break 1.8512

SanFrancisco TG 15:44 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:33 - These are things I've been coming to terms with over time.

perrie como 15:44 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Ref Economies with Trillions of Debts, think how many more taxes you are going to pay next years, say if inflation rises 2 pct.

Guess the 500 dollars check to give back + other 2,000 bucks at least, for an eventual social security to get if not dead.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:42 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 15:40 GMT - I have reservation on European currencies.

Halifax CB 15:41 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Valdez - it's not the absolute level that is particularly relevant, but the rate at which it changes. The absolute levels are just stand-ins, since the human mind seems to like fixed point references. But it is the rate of change that significantly effects economies, as they adapt much more slowly... GL/GT...

HK Kevin 15:40 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Thank you, Qindex. Can't rely on BOJ to trade.

perrie como 15:40 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Yes Qindex...was thinkin same for Usd/Jpy,

think also the whole US$ pairs are goin to be sold heavily tonite.

maybe the LTCM crash second edition improoved...

very danger market better stay off from short term trading

Hong Kong Qindex 15:36 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:34 GMT - USD/JPY : I have a feeling that it will go down to 97 - 98 range.

HK Kevin 15:34 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Good evening, Qindex, does the following post still valid in long term.
Melbourne Qindex 22:31 GMT October 28, 2004
USD/JPY : The defensive line for BOJ is 100.68.

BEIRUT MK 15:34 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
long usdjpy at 104.21 will add 103.80 target 107

Dallas Mauricio 15:33 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
R the Oil #'s good or bad for Cable? TIA

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:33 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
By the way, for those who are constantly "worried" about the relationship of currencies, one high, one low, they simply cycle no matter who says what and no matter who does what. For example today everyone's excited for some reason about the ¥ & U$D, the two currencies were equal to today's price ranges a number of times in:
Jan 1996
Jan 2002
Jan 2004
Nov 2004

So what's all the big excitement about? Stuff cycles. If BIG BIG MONEY wants the USD to seek 1.35-1.40, it simply will no matter what happens, ECB, MOF or whatever. There are those on this forum who are quite amuzing with their individual & propriatory laws, rules & regulations concering their views of Foreign Exchange.

Antwerp Tom 15:30 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
farmacia 15:24 GMT thanks, interesting but is it $ bullish or bearish?

Hong Kong Qindex 15:30 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The common factor in my Quarterly Cycle is 186.91 and it is defined as the key Quantized Level or the "Super Magnet" in my system. Apparently this is the targeting level for a strong downward trending movement.

Dallas Mauricio 15:30 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
What is your time frame for this. TIA

BEIRUT MK 15:26 GMT November 17, 2004
gbpusd record a false break of 1.8620
sold at 1.8549 target 1.84 stop 1.8640

GOES B747 15:29 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
prague viktor 15:20 GMT November 17, 2004

I don't think, I trade!

what you think about FED rates above 10% during the current decade?

gt

Dallas Mauricio 15:28 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
I'm short from 1.8565.

BEIRUT MK 15:26 GMT November 17, 2004
gbpusd record a false break of 1.8620
sold at 1.8549 target 1.84 stop 1.8640

BEIRUT MK 15:26 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
gbpusd record a false break of 1.8620
sold at 1.8549 target 1.84 stop 1.8640

Athens 15:25 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
A general comment I posted on the political forum earlier today, which new traders may find it useful as reference (old guns can skip it as it is well known history):

Without saying that next year EUR/$ can't trade at 1.35 or 1.40, I think we must keep things in perspective. I wrote on Tuesday on TT that $/DEM lost 62% of its value when it hit 1.34 from 3.48 in 1985. However, during the first 3-4 years we had a very steep decline from 3.48 to 1.56which was a 52% devaluation. The rest of the move took much longer and the absolute bottom was seen in 1995 i.e. 10 years after the start of the decline and at that point we had a 62% devaluation. Coming now to the present picture, EUR/$ has already appreviated by almost 58% in 4 years. I am not implying that we need another 6 years but even here at this point the USD has lost from its best levels seen in 2000 almost what had lost in 10 years back then. This may not be a trading idea, but at least calls for caution when setting targets in levels and time.

Of course my argument was mucg stronger in January/February this year when I first discussed this poimt here given that it was almost one year earlier and the same levels then were relatively much more exaggerated timewise than they are now, but even so the very long term picture doesn't change too much.

Dallas Mauricio 15:25 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Cable, up in London session, down in NY session. Oy Vey!

SanFrancisco TG 15:24 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
FYI Canadian Dollar futures are still offered and Yen futures still bid.

melbourne farmacia 15:24 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom - fwiw

" Well before joining the Bush Administration, well before September 11, Rice outlined her foreign policy vision in a journal article published in early 2000. She argued on Iraq: "Nothing will change until Saddam is gone, so the United States must mobilize whatever resources it can, including support from his opposition, to remove him."
She also spoke about two other problem countries - Korea and Iran. The three would later become President Bush's 'axis of evil'.

prague viktor 15:20 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 15:11 GMT November 17, 2004... that is the story for the year 2005 its too much for this year ..and the euro will fly to the 1,40-1,5 and the gold to 500-600 what u think about that?

Hong Kong Qindex 15:20 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : 193.05 is the next target.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:19 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : the following is still valid :-


Melbourne Qindex 12:54 GMT October 31, 2004
GBP/JPY : The current expected trading ranges from my Quarterly Cycle are as follow :-


Curve A : ... // 186.91 - 189.32 - 191.73* - 194.14 - 196.55 // ...


Curve B : ... // 186.91 - 188.79 - 190.66* - 192.54 - 194.41 - 196.29 // 198.16* ...


Curve C ; ... // 186.91 - 188.45 - 189.98* - 191.52 - 193.05 - 194.58 - 196.11 // 197.65 ...

Dallas GEP 15:18 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
gbp/jpy and eur/jpy controlling action know

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:17 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw 13:15 GMT November 17, 2004// Tks for the site suggestion! Good news link which you posted: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/globalmacro/
Stockholm Aguy//my Help Forum post for you is now ready.

GOES B747 15:15 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
from Debka:

"Iranian opposition group has new evidence that Iran is producing enriched uranium at covert facility in Tehran not disclosed to UN watchdog.

Its leaders warn UN inspectors not to be deceived by Iran’s promise to European diplomats to suspend uranium enrichment starting next week. Paris-based National Resistance Council discovered hidden Natanz nuclear site two years ago."

Antwerp Tom 15:15 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
B747 Condi is a very smart woman, i don't think she's into throwing bombs worldwide.

GOES B747 15:11 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Tom, I beleive that logic and understanding must rule the world; if not so then Iran is next.

R&B (Rice & Bush) have no other plans left; American gave Bush the green light to throw bombs worldwide; so tell me why not Iran )Israel will do Syria for free at the same time).

gt all

Halifax CB 15:11 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
re. my 15:06 - the rises before the falls seem to be on the order of 100+ pips recently. So maybe we'll stay out a bit longer...

Dallas GEP 15:10 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
YEp CB, and as you know usd/cad does act as a LONE RANGER at times!!! LOL

HK Kevin 15:07 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Short again EUR/JPY earlier at 135.92, hope it close under the 50ma in the daily chart.

River Falls_USA_ PB 15:07 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:59///you're doin' fine...you know its a slow session when we start waxing "ECON 101" gt...when it breaks. Am still waiting for the 2-300 pip retrace in $ favor.

Antwerp Tom 15:07 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
B747 You really believe Iran is next? VG GT

Halifax CB 15:06 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Holy cow dallas - what are ya doing talking about forex on FF? FWIW, I don't think the USDCAD drop is done yet; we'll be looking to get back in in the 1.1920 region (I haven't done my histograms yet). But this one often has a significant rise just befor diving, and any short is going to have to take that into account for SL positioning...

Syd 15:06 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 not to worry I dont.

GOES B747 15:04 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Syd // do not mislead yourself, Iran is an open account for USA since the failure in the desert; first term was USA closing account with Iraq and the second term is to close account with Iran.

trusting the Iranian regime to stop the nuke process is equal to sleeping with a cobra in your bad without getting a bite.

FX relation will come into play after mid 2006 due to the fact the Irani and Iraqi oil will be history for all European names; Europe is the loser of the current moves but the bill due bit later (i.e. mid 2006 and on).

gt all

Syd 15:03 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM agree with HK [email protected] 14:58 a lot of censored there, and the section below would be more to the point , seems the only way to deal with terrorist is to wipe them out. You recall the GI just lately , is he dead, well he is now!!

shift in attention to nuclear deterrence came unexpectedly because Putin has for months said that Chechnya posed the major threat to Russia's national security amid a wave of deadly attacks by guerrillas based in the Caucasus.

Dallas GEP 15:03 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
OK this is NOT confirmed YET but EUR/USD is developing a SELL signal @ 1.3040

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:59 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
War is money. Money is war. Cold wars cost more than hot ones. Do you realize the amt of money made by contractors in the 50 cold war years since 1946 (when the cold war started)? And how much tax money was collected from those contractors and "spin off" jobs/businesses? Think about it. War is money. Money is war. Of course Russia and the US are entering into another cold war. It's about money. Your tax dollars at work. The best way to position oneself during any war, cold or hot, is to sell to the economy which has the most dispensible money resource. In the gold rush days in Alaska and California, much more money was made per capita by business men who "mined the miner" than the miners made per capitain their gold pans. The ratio went like this: for every several hundred miners there was one business man who indirectly collected practically all the money which the miners made collectively. Think about it. Dont worry about cold war, worry about collecting the money made by cold war "participants" and contractors. That 's the rub. How am I doing?

azarento om 14:58 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Quito ecuador valdez, dont forget us!
;)

HK [email protected] 14:58 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
There is a lot of bullshìt in that AlJazeera.

What sense in having new kinds of nuclear weapons if the existing ones are so destructive.
Some of the conventional bombs anyway are coming near the E-bomb in their destructive powers.

Dallas GEP 14:56 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
If NOT in yet, I would suggest you wait ONE hour before entering any NEW possies

berlin otto 14:56 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Ok, guys and girls,...
now in my country is afternoon,..
now its very difficult to trade
I reccomend you
sell
gbpusd at 1,8572
target
1,8500
today in late NY or tommorow morning

Syd 14:54 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Have noticed since Bush has regained power many of the terror groups are suggesting amnesty IRA in talks with UK , ETA trying to get on side of the Spanish government, and you have Iran now agreeing to the Nuclear situation.

Tokyo IM 14:52 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Syd// that is the one I read. http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/E8FAABCA-33A7-4FC6-A233-72575C24D576.htm

Syd 14:50 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM I have read the article earlier Putin knows who his enemies are.

SanFrancisco TG 14:49 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
That may sound a lot more political than its meant, I'm trying to put things in an economic perspective related to underlying themes.

Tokyo IM 14:48 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Syd 14:46 GMT November 17, 2004 // That is not what Putin said, he specificaly said that they do feel the need for protection from terrorism but they are not going to relax the protection against nuclear attacks.

SanFrancisco TG 14:47 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:14 GMT - Yes, but will the left side of the Euro population finally figure out that their woes are not the fault of the US, but the fault of their own counter-productive aims? Only then would the EU economy advance, as their aims and practice become cleaner. When that happens, the US has no desire to be in competition, but cooperation. I believe it may begin with Annan being toasted by the UN scandal. Then maybe another Berlin Wall type economic and ideologic progression take place. Net economic result would be another level of trade and cooperation, and economic prosperity. Time line? 3 years before it begins to be set in motion.

Syd 14:46 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM I think they are aiming more at the terrorists than anything else. They also see the danger from the middle east now more than ever.

Tokyo IM 14:42 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Some interesting news:
President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow will acquire new nuclear weapon systems which other nuclear powers do not yet have and are unlikely to develop.

It seems like Russia and US are planing in engaging in a "cold war" again. Full text of the story can be picked-up from http://news.google.com

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:36 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Maurciio 14:17//
quito_ecuador_valdez 11:29 GMT November 17, 2004
US news has for a couple months been "NON EVENTS"...

The sooner we accept that FX is driven by BIG-BIG money & little else, the sooner we'll realize economic news quips about this & that country/region news has little or no play value. The only news that has mattered frankly is positive oil news (fear of or sabotage of or vastly profound events affecting oil supplies/transits. The only thing more powerful than oil disaster news would be the possibility of horrific & profoundly severe national disaster from Mother Nature or nuclear warfare (both not likely).

van Gecko 14:36 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
valdez.. imo that all moves are not created equal & can't be treated as equal..
those prior 1000 pip moves which you noted all occured near the beginning and at the mid point of the run up from 2002.. and in all cases they involve taking out some previously traversed resistances by the euro decending from its 1999 launched.. this time however, the recent 8 figure run up with euro taking out the previously non-traversed 1.29 multi-year cap in one shot (1.2850 was the old 1996 synthetic high) at/near a maturing multi-year trend should be viewed with caution by prudent m/t players..

Stockholm AGuy 13:44.. no problem.. i understand what you was referring to after a 2nd read..

Livingston nh 14:35 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
The EUR is getting a lot of attention but IMO the Asian currencies are suffering more than the EUR - this might be the pressure point for a move by China --

Halifax CB 14:30 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Well, we're still in play after a power outage - took a technical short on EURUSDabout 2 hours ago, after it crossed the resistance from the Nov 8 and 10 highs. That was later confirmed by the H&S on the short charts (and then we lost power...). Anyway, a key ST point is right about now, if it moves below 1.3024 on the 5& 15 minute charts, we'' keep it, targetting the longer term rising support from Oct....

Dallas Mauricio 14:29 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
It looks like all the action was during the early European session.

London. 14:24 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Shame on them, its about time.
BRUSSELS (AP)--NATO allies Wednesday approved detailed plans to send 300 military instructors and hundreds of guards and support staff to Iraq in an expansion of the alliance's training program for Iraqi army officers. In an interview carried this week in London's FT, he warned the decision of the other 10 allies not to send any soldiers could present problems as the alliance seeks to rotate its instructors

Dallas Mauricio 14:23 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Here we go on cable!

Ldn 14:21 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
In some ways the selling of the Dollar ,considering the good data of late and the sh.it Europe are in is a Joke - just shows it the players that move the market nothing else

Syd 14:18 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Sept Capacity Use Revised Up To 77.3%
Sept Industrial Production Unrevised At +0.1%
Oct Capacity Use Up To 77.7%; Consensus 77.4%
Oct Indus Production +0.7%; Consensus +0.4%

GOES B747 14:18 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:14 GMT November 17, 2004

you are right, it is raped during a sexual play...means that everybody ate happy !!!

Joe and Jane goes shopping in USA when the rest of the world pays...looks like good arrangement to me, BUT how long this circus can keep on going???

gt all

Dallas Mauricio 14:17 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Nada, no reaction to number.

Toronto Silverfox 14:17 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
more strong numbers Industrial prod +0.7
and capacity 77.7 usd still heavy

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:14 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
sg pkg 14:08 GMT November 17, 2004// iUSD not raped nor molested..it's cheaper...making way for US's quicker trade deficit recovery. Thereafter USD will revaluate to stop ECB's temper tantrums so EU can dry its tears & sell more goods to USA. Bitter pills cure the sickness faster than candy.

Sydney 14:13 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD - Large 1.8550 Option Strike NY cut -

London. 14:12 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
I suppose if Europe had been more obliging with the Bush Admin on Iraq , he would be more sympathetic - no wonder they were hoping Kerry won

Stockholm AGuy 14:09 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:45 GMT: "I'll ignore as most here Stockholm aguy's usual arrogance"

If it's arrogance to bow to the rule of objective facts and logic, rather than bend them to suit my own little ego, then let it be known that I'm quite happy to display such "arrogance"!

Dallas GEP 14:08 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GOOD data will nore than likely be used as opportunity to SELL more dollars

sg pkg 14:08 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
the dollar is getting raped and molested.

Dallas Mauricio 14:05 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Livingston nh.

London. 14:05 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dollar bears in control of the market for now U.S. consumer price index for October, showed a larger-than-expected uptick in retail inflation to its fastest pace in five months.

saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088 14:05 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..

To unload and take profits of a winn position some times is good..BUT SOMETIMES many after the fact says how wrong was and didnt wait more..

Always at the end we plus somthing in one or other way..
cos we are humans..
SO..
1.3058 is a temporary 1.3058 is the break for Euro but above it some hundred pips again more..

Why?
Cos the $ wanted..

Its like Gr888 Alexander the Macedon now its not only Greek BUT another nationality too..cos the $ wanted!

Have a nice day..

nk

Dallas GEP 14:05 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
OK guys what is MOST important here is that we DON'T chase the market. The dollar sell moves are NOT over more than likely they have just PAUSED. There will be PLENTY of opportunities.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:04 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Londons best

BNZL.L 451.5376 320.4954 Sell
SPW.L 499.6160 403.0599 Buy

Gen dk 14:02 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Livingston nh 14:00 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Mauricio 13:42 GMT November 17, 2004
re: Fed's Ind Prod and Cap Util - Capacity utilization is important to the Fed because it is a measure of slack in the economy - G'span made reference to the importance of Cap Util last year (one of his many moving targets) - above 78 market might see faster Fed action which could affect USD

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:57 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Van Gecko// The retracement step(s) I referred to should be occurring at any time. After that retrace the path is clear to 1.32 & beyond. I agree too. Typically on large moves retraces have one 175-300 pips correction before advancing further & typically over 2 years of history there is 1 large correction about midway of the big move, & smaller ones of 100-200 pips along the way. Like you, I bias more on charts than on fundamentals, not excluding fundamentals of course. I hope & pray for a juicy retrace so I can buy those cheap Euros again, my capitol still has lots of spending room.

Syd 13:54 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Mr Snow has emphasised that the US Administration is serious about halving the federal budget deficit. European finance ministers this week have been highly critical of US fiscal policy. Mr Snow, perhaps understandably, is unsympathetic. He points out that, as a proportion of GDP, the USA's budget gap is no larger than those of governments in Europe that are his most vociferous critics.

Syd 13:47 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
It appears that the big sharks are wanting to take on the CBs so until they respond they will continue to sell even if the Employment data came out at 500.000 and 2%.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:46 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
HK Stock
0001.HK 103.5013 53.0367 Buy
0002.HK 50.8944 42.7369 Buy
0003.HK 19.0154 13.6056 Buy
0004.HK 37.7114 23.2949 Buy
0005.HK 153.5598 120.8948 Buy
0006.HK 40.5010 32.2946 Buy
0008.HK 5.6785 2.6054 Sell
0011.HK 126.1011 98.5404 Buy
0012.HK 55.9096 30.9105 Buy
0013.HK 89.9315 51.5472 Buy

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:45 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 13:20 GMT November 17, 2004
1. ...while a straight up overshoot to 1.32 level can't be rule out, its highly unlikely without some kind of support from m/t money players..
2. ..so, any retracements from up here as long the 1.26 level is not violated on a weekly basis would be quite healthy for the euro & help to keep the bull run..

1. Respectfully, I didn't say nor imply a "straight up overshoot to 1.32.." Anyone realizes of course it'll have dips-retraces but I wouldn't say all the way to 1.23 as some here are hoping, & no retrace more than a 150-200 pips based on chart history from 2002.
2. But you will note 5 former straight up charges since 2002 in the 3 year chart, usually displaying one small retrace usually on the big 1000 pip moves. This move from 1.22 could be that very type of pattern, you have to admit, since it's happend 5 times in two years already. And yes, a nice retrace would be healthy to proceed past 1.32, I realize that and want to see it badly. This whole move "started" (matter of opinion) at 1.2250. Former upmoves involved from 1000 to 1500 pips. Let's say we're are at 1.3050 nowish. So this move sofar is 1.3050-1.2250=800 pips. As you see, it lacks between 200 - 700 pips of "maturing" into a typical big chart move for this pair. Right? So that's why 1.32 is in my sights. And beyond. It's just my model.

Van Gecko, I'll ignore as most here Stockholm aguy's usual arrogance, hope you do the same. I'm preparing an entry in Help Forum just for him..ready in 15-20 minutes, to avoid aguy-valdez/gecko tennis here on FF.Thanks for your critique amigo.

Stockholm AGuy 13:44 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 13:20 GMT:

I seem to owe you an apology; apparently I attributed some comments to you which were actually written by somebody else (thought he was quoting you). Sorry about that.

HK Kevin 13:44 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
hk fei 13:37 GMT, may be 103.40 is their 1st line of defense. Looking for 136.20/40 to re-enter short EUR/JPY.

london 13:44 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Kmart To Acquire Sears In $11B Deal

Dallas Mauricio 13:42 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
I am not familiar with the US econ rpts that are coming out @ 14:15 GMT. USD Capacity Utilization (OCT) & Industrial Production (OCT). Are these market moving?

Tokyo IM 13:39 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
hk fei 13:37 GMT November 17, 2004 // looking for the password ...

london 13:39 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
BOJ most likely left orders with NY on intervention at a low of around 102-3 would imagine.

prague jv 13:39 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
still no time to bail out of eur/usd longs , more to come B4 azia consolidation.

hk fei 13:37 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
where are the BOJ

Syd 13:34 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
U.S. consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in five months amid a surge in energy and food prices

knoxville dan-k 13:33 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
imho, if u trade stocks take a look around at who manfactures RFID'S and HDTV'S next generation sectors to look at real hard

Syd 13:32 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Housing Starts Rise In All Four Regions
Sept Housing Starts Revised To -5.6% From -6.0%
Building Permits -0.7% To 1.984 Mln Rate In Oct Oct Housing Starts +6.4% To 2.027M; Survey +3.9%
Real Average Weekly Earnings -0.4% In October
Oct CPI Energy Prices +4.2%; Food Prices +0.6%
Oct CPI Ex-Food & Energy +0.2%; Consensus +0.1%
Oct Consumer Prices +0.6%; Consensus +0.4%

Antwerp Tom 13:30 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
If it's a consolation for anybody...i closed my € longs yesterday @ 1.2946 (almost the daily low) BE and then went short @ 1.2970 and still holding on to it...
soon my moves will be studied as a contrarian signal to where the € will move next... and i will be called a male C9 LOL GL GT

Ldn 13:29 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 13:20 yes it does and agree

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:28 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Just analysed all sp 500 stocks
My Recommendations
AHC 110.0254 75.1426 Buy
AGN 80.8876 32.2265 Sell
ATH 93.2025 48.2060 Sell
CINF 44.1553 32.2561 Sell
FD 55.8684 27.2478 Sell
MYG 20.7327 2.6033 Sell
NWL 23.0708 12.8925 Sell
SYY 34.6961 18.1484 Sell
WLP 113.0324 54.0279 Sell

Juneau CAR 13:26 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dollar breaks down below 1.30 euro and all metals smoking.

Gold up $3.30 to $444.


http://www.kitco.com/market/

Bse metals smoking as well.

berlin otto 13:20 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Hi, guys, one more time: be patient and
I will tell you ...
if
buy
or
sell gbpusd
after USD news.
Good luck!

van Gecko 13:20 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
valdez.. thanks for your views amigo, funnymentals makes my head spin as i live in a world of 100% technical purity.. euro had risen 800+ pips from the October 1.22 baseline & had passed the non-traversed 1.29 multi-year cap in one shot (a vely rare occurance).. a back to back 2 month 10 figure ATR is also a rare sight for euro in recent years.. while a straight up overshoot to 1.32 level can't be rule out, its highly unlikely without some kind of support from m/t money players.. don't know about short termer movers targeting some option paid-outs, but i can't imagine any prudent real money folks positioning for the m/t would jump in with closed eyes to buy euro @ 1.30 in fear of missing another 200 pips.. so, any retracements from up here as long the 1.26 level is not violated on a weekly basis would be quite healthy for the euro & help to keep the bull run from 2002 intact..
for anyone who can move the buck down here, its not how you get in..the problem is how to recoupe those money spent plus getting out with profits when its time to unload..
Ldn.. hope this help you also..
cheers amigos..

Helsinki iw 13:15 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
valdez, check this out, very educational:

http://www.stern.nyu.edu/globalmacro/

Dallas GEP 13:10 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Sorry LAgos I mean...

Dallas GEP 13:09 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
LOL!!!! Well Laos, Great Question!!! No crystal ball but I think it is particularly difficult right now to see the IMMEDIATE short term horizons for these pairs, I beleieve with the closing of LONDON here shortky we will see SOME usd bears taking some profits, Looking at chartts now will post more specific views here shortly

Stockholm AGuy 13:07 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 12:49 GMT:

Valdez, please note that I did not post a "call". I simply pointed out that "vanGecko's" arguments are factually and logically incorrect. To put it bluntly, whoever wrote that stuff simply doesn't know what he or she is talking about.

Somebody may come out and say, "the moon is made of green cheese, hence there will be no ECB intervention". If there is no ECB intervention, does that prove that the moon is, indeed, made of green cheese? Of course not. The argument remains every bit as factually and logically incorrect as it always was.

Santo Domingo tht 13:07 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Lisboa Pedro 12:12.. just found this on a website, can't
guarantee the accuracy of the numbers.

1937 - 1938 Stock Market Crash:

Just when investors thought the market was finally good again, following a recovery of almost half of the great depression losses, the market plunged again due to war scare and Wall street scandals.

2nd Worst Stock Market Crash:

Date Started: 3/10/1937
Date Ended: 3/31/1938

Total Days: 386
Starting DJIA: 194.40
Ending DJIA: 98.95
Total Loss: -49.1%

Lagos 13:00 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 12:58 GMT November 17, 2004
THX Valdez,,,,,

Valdez says ur the man with the crystal ball. So whats gonna happen for the rest of the day.....

Dallas GEP 12:58 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
THX Valdez,,,,,

Tokyo IM 12:51 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez// Gmorning, hope you doing well and glad on Euro's break through 1.3. GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:49 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
A guy// Thanks for posting and I respect your valued posts. Well, we simply disagree big time amigo, no sence in FX tennis. Let's let our two posts be record of the near future's moves. Proof is in the pudding. Not an insult but thus far the standard mainstream rhetoric just hasn't worked and has cost a lot of people a lot of money...hence my views. Your views are popular & mainstream, that's a fact in which we both agree. GT amigo.

Stockholm AGuy 12:37 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 12:13 GMT: "Van Gecko//
[...] MOF doesn't care, it gains if $ devaluates since ¥ is pegged to $ (as is Chinese RMB)"

Needless to say, this is completely wrong.

"If ECB does intervene they'll molest the € immensely by devaluating it"

Yes, that would be the *goal* of EUR/USD intervention!

"or cost themselves a bundle (or both)"

Once more: if you are a CB wishing to devalue your currency, you "print" more of it. That's your prerogative; it's your currency. It costs you, the issuer, nothing, not even paper and ink in these days of electronic money. It costs the *holders* of your currency, by diluting its value.

"If they devalue the € instead of buy $ instruments"

The implied contradiction does not exist. It's by buying other currencies in one form or the other (spot or instruments denominated in those currencie) that a CB devalues its own.

"they'll cost EU mfg exporters & others immensely in their efforts to buy raw materials & oil"

Illogical. Unless said exporters are running at a loss, they export their manufactured goods at a higher price than they import raw materials at; if the USD goes up, that profit margin goes up with it.

The "conclusions" rounding out the post are based on the above errors of fact and logic. The GIGO (Garbage In ->
Garbage Out) principle applies.

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:37 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GEP//BTW..I sent mail.

KL KL 12:36 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
looking to long usdcad...

KL KL 12:34 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd long +11

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:34 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Lagos 12:18 GMT November 17, 2004
Pull up a 30 day fxtrek dot com €/$ chart. Draw support line from low of 10/13 to today's low (of 11/17). It touches midway with low of 11/3 for legitimacy. The last few days (albeit the last month) that line has held like concrete. I can't answer your question because I'm no good on day trading predictions, only on long term..day trading is Dallas GEP's department. GEP, you wanna take this one please? I can't tell what it's going to do the rest of the day..US econ news not withstanding.

KL KL 12:33 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
out usd chf 1.1674 +8 ...long gbpusd 1.8555...high 5...I will short eur as soon as I tp on this gbp long

Santo Domingo tht 12:29 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
1938 is a year between WW I and WW II when lots of things went wrong.

GOES B747 12:20 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Lisboa Pedro 12:12 GMT November 17, 2004

Ask valdez, he can say/type better than me.

Lagos 12:20 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
sorry, my questions on eur$ and gbp$?

Lagos 12:18 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
valdez, we are having moderate dollar appreciation right now, where do you think its retracing to?

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:13 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Van Gecko// Good morning amigo! My model says the €/$ uptrend from 2002 will permit 1.32 by 2nd week Dec. & not surprized if before. Trichet may growl - that's about all he can do successuflly to temporarily put off the inevitable..he's being paid to growl so growl he will. MOF doesn't care, it gains if $ devaluates since ¥ is pegged to $ (as is Chinese RMB). MOF doesn't give a hoot either about Trichet & his EU, Japan cares about Japan & the ability of USA to buy Japanese exports. So count MOF out of intervention. If ECB does intervene they'll molest the € immensely by devaluating it or cost themselves a bundle (or both). They can't afford that, the € is not stable c'ncy yet. If they devalue the € instead of buy $ instruments, printing more fiat money competing w/ US Treasury's printing presses now in action, they'll cost EU mfg exporters & others immensely in their efforts to buy raw materials & oil with cheap €s. Therefore intervention will be either non existant or temporary & possibly devestating to the € if carried to an extreme. When intervention starts, EU hurts, people complain. it stops. When it stops, and it will have to, that's a ticket to 1.32-1.40. The time frame for 1.32+ is variable with the EU intervention of course. Mid Dec is my guess. Remember folks, this is prediction..trend is your true friend..not predictions. Your thoughts/critique on this would be much appreciated Gecko.

Lisboa Pedro 12:12 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 12:07 ... 1938 ... what is that???

London. 12:12 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Make you wonder if the Dollar drop isnt payback time in some way to the statement below. Chirac is a fool

Chirac questions US-led Iraq war BBC.
Chirac says Britain's support for the war has brought few dividends
French President Jacques Chirac says he is "not at all sure" the world has become safer with the removal from power of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

Ldn 12:07 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Tiscali France CEO Warns Of Parent Default Risk
Tiscali has postponed repayments on a EUR30 million loan from its French subsidiary at least three times since August, prompting concerns about the company's cash situation, a person within the company said last week

GOES B747 12:07 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
USD sellers seems doing that with larger amounts that I could guess/see; leaving xxx/USD/xxx trading for few weeks.
there is enough to make with the rest.

the larger frame looks shaky, everybody talking about the macro mistakes but none does for the better; 1938 looks closer than ever.

gt all

hong kong nt 12:02 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
What does "Strond Dollar Policy" really mean in the eye of US officials?

perhaps, the following criteria maybe applicable.

USD/CHF>1.0 or
EUR/USD<1.5 or
GBP/USD<2.0 or
USD/JPY>90 or
AUD/USD<0.9

London. 12:01 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
EMU and US debt markets should be braced for an upside surprise to the headline US Oct CPI, at 1300 GMT, given Tue's US PPI release says WestLB

KL KL 11:59 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
ok in long usd chf at 1.1666 sl 13 below - low enough? why short here, I ask myself? funny usdjpy in stagnation?? interesting...stable enough to long..hmmmmm

Syd 11:59 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy well depends how old you are if you think you have still got some growing todo

Ldn 11:57 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 11:53 hi there, how much higher to you envisage it (Euro)can go from here, realize its a crystal ball question but being the wizard that you are you may be able to answer it cheers

Boston mpd004 11:56 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm// I think the first two are very possible, but I think Halle berry is married already, however, with a billion...hmmm

Sydney gvm 11:53 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
brokern record

sell dollars - wear diamonds

it's been this way for weeks now - check my rants in archive

it's kinda like the NASDAQ in '99 but in reverse

van Gecko 11:53 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
valdez.. amigo, so its 1.32 - 1.34 - 1.35 or bust for you from here?

GOES B747 11:52 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: k/o @ 1.3022, took the hit with -80pips net/net

EUR/JPY: running well; now s/l @ 194.60
GBP/JPY: running well; now s/l @ 136.60
Looking for additional 130pips in total for both to recover the 80pips from the EUR/USD to generate the 700pips net/net target; placed s/l for ++350pips as a.m.

gt all

Stockholm AGuy 11:51 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Syd 11:47 GMT:

In related news, in 2005 I'm projected to grow 20 cm taller, make a billion EUR trading cocoa futures and, of course, marry Halle Berry...

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:51 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Sorry Otto, that last post was directed to Manilla Stubbs. Lacking my 1st cup of coffee this AM...wife fixed chocolate..that's bad.

For those who were caught unaware of the upmove in E/$ remember Valdez's Rule #1: "Never short a longing chart, never long a shorting chart". E/$ is & has been for 2 years longing. Obey the ACTUAL trend until the trend proves itself to be reversing. Any and all predictions are worthless until the fact presents itself, including my predictions. That's science, that's trading. Predictions are only preparatory to taking action, they are NOT action.

HK [email protected] 11:48 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
China's central bank announced it will allow ‏
‏Chinese citizens emigrating overseas to take their financial assets with them, ‏
‏taking another step toward more flexible foreign exchange policy.‏
‏ In a statement posted on its Website, the People's Bank of China said these ‏
‏included permitting Chinese enterprises involved in international business to ‏
‏retain more foreign currency holdings, the relaxing requirements for Chinese ‏
‏companies' investing in activities overseas, and allowing individuals ‏
‏travelling or studying abroad to convert more renminbi (yuan) into foreign ‏
‏currencies. ‏.............................

New rules governing the transfer of personal wealth will take effect from ‏
‏Dec. 1, according to the central bank.‏
‏ Recently, Chinese authorities have taken a series of measures to ease ‏
‏control over international capital flow. The central bank called "the ‏
‏relaxation of the restrictions is a major breakthrough" and said it was ‏
‏"another step toward making the renminbi convertible." ‏
‏ "The strengthening economic fundamentals created conditions for allowing ‏
‏the transfer of personal assets to overseas," it said. ‏
‏ The rules come amid heightened speculation that China will revalue the yuan ‏

Syd 11:47 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Isn't the U.S. government's fiscal deficit something to worry about, a BBC radio interviewer asked him?
Well, yes, he said.
But then he pointed out that the deficit is projected to drop back below 3% during the coming year.
On that measure, the U.S. would meet Maastricht treaty criteria for membership of the euro. A threshold, which, by the way, isn't met by the euro's two biggest members states, France and Germany.
Score one for Snow

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:45 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
berlin otto 11:20 GMT November 17, 2004
I don't know about $/¥ because the MOF constantly adjusts the controls to keep ¥ pegged to the $...with that variable, not even God can truly say. £ should buy more and more $s as time goes on due to $ devaluation just as € is and CHF is, over the next 45 -60 days. That's long term picture. Short term - expect the normal 75 pip range we've seen this fall to augment your pip supply. As to acutal $ lows we'll see, it'll land somewhere between €/$ 1.40 and 1.35 according to my model. I wouldn't worry much about intervention for many factors already discussed on this forum over the past week-10 days.

KL KL 11:36 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
ok eurusd sl taken at 40....systems working ...good...now can take some possie and go to sleep!!lets see

manila stubbs 11:35 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 11:29 GMT November 17, 2004
where do u see gbp$ and $yen going? TIA

BEIRUT MK 11:29 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
try to short eurusd near 1.3075

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:29 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
berlin otto 11:20 GMT November 17, 2004
US news has for a couple months been "NON EVENTS"...so don't count on anything spectacular other than another excuse for the E/$ chart to go up again. The best econ news can do lately is to wiggle the chart a little only to have it resume it's normal upward path. GT

KL KL 11:28 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd +38 at 1.8578, out usdjpy +3 at 42
...locking in 3 pip profit for eurusd and letting it run up or down ...will add at 130.10..I think this one can move higher...but I still enjoy shorting it !!...no need to trumpet going to pluto or down to abyss....just trading in the true sense....trade to win!!

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:27 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Mauricio 11:06 GMT November 17, 2004
Amen. I don't know if anyone remembers the E/$ triangle I mentioned here last week...time for another pop, either Friday or 1st half of this week.. maybe some took heed. Well, right on target, it popped. Sorry for the ones who ingnore my posts and are still waiting for a freeking E/$ retrace. The only retrace we'll have by my model is between 1.32 and 1.34 and that's only to form a double top. So go ahread and ignore that too. The trend which started 2002 has yet to be broken if one sees the big picture..3 year chart. I realize there are some here who do follow my posts. All I can do is to post.. I can't make you trade correctly.

berlin otto 11:20 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, Mauricio - one more time :congratulations!
We now waiting USA news at 13.30 GMT and 14.15 GMT
Be patient!

Surabaya CentralMan 11:16 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Just watch Cable on the battle. It is going up like a rocket

Dallas Mauricio 11:09 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Cable trailing stop hit. Out + 67 pips.

perrie como 11:08 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Budapest...this trend is simply fishing, but I'll take a rest as risking digestive disorder.

:)

Dallas Mauricio 11:06 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Can I hear an Amen!

Budapest GH 11:04 GMT November 17, 2004
My friends! Don't take me wrong, but most of you trade against the very common sense, basic trading rules. A trend is a trend, is a trend indeed, and he might be your friend. Look at the daily or hourly charts and if you don't see it, go and have your sight checked by a doctor.

HK [email protected] 11:06 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   

Gold!!!
Has practically reached it target of 445.

A downward correction may begin soon especially when there is no demand in the physical markets.

The price has risen in a parabolic manner, which likely can't be sustained.

Clear manipulation by funds B4 yearend.

Can imagine that today the number of open interests in the markets is the largest, as all suckers were already sucked in.

Budapest GH 11:04 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
My friends! Don't take me wrong, but most of you trade against the very common sense, basic trading rules. A trend is a trend, is a trend indeed, and he might be your friend. Look at the daily or hourly charts and if you don't see it, go and have your sight checked by a doctor.

perrie como 11:01 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Maybe big guys checking prices up in London

Dallas Mauricio 10:59 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
That is what I am doing.

Budapest GH 10:47 GMT November 17, 2004
Otto, don't take me wrong. You didn't tell confidently it was the right trade to do, but actually you were looking for confirmation, a self reassurance. Anywy trail your stop, and don't take profits early.

KL KL 10:54 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
long usdjpy at 104.39 short eurusd 1.3043 gbpusd at 1.8616 all sl 7 very tight....Had very troubling quick munch due to this move ...at least I got 1 pip from eur short earlier...now looking for more...things are stalling here...running our of fuel...time to go back to base station for re-fuel (if there is any more fuel there). As I say lots of nervous nellies, I would not long here...yee har here we go

perrie como 10:48 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Tks Melbourne...seems Aussie the King today on markets. Yesterday seen many shorts here most probably all being stop catched, interesting kangoroo play.

cu later on

Surabaya CentralMan 10:47 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
If required,CentralMan Intervention long US/Yen 2 unit at 104.44

Budapest GH 10:47 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Otto, don't take me wrong. You didn't tell confidently it was the right trade to do, but actually you were looking for confirmation, a self reassurance. Anywy trail your stop, and don't take profits early.

perrie como 10:45 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Maybe just those foggy mediatic calls again.

Might be am wrong about any intervention, also in such complex markets to sustain the dollar index, think they have to act Us$ against all if want to succed.

berlin otto 10:45 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Congratulations!!!!!!!

melbourne farmacia 10:45 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
perrie como - 104.05/10 yen support

Dallas Mauricio 10:44 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Otto! It is a wonderful day in the neighborhood!

Surabaya CentralMan 10:43 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Cable....go to heaven!

perrie como 10:42 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
hm Tanigaki a shark? or the missing Duisenberg

berlin otto 10:42 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Hi, guys and girls

I told you yesterday that the right decision is

buy gbp usd 1,8515

target 1,8600
+85 pips
and much more right now 1,8611

Surabaya CentralMan 10:38 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Next lesson : Enjoy your trade!

Dallas Mauricio 10:38 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Cable is on a rocket!

Tallinn viies 10:38 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
good day all
covered my long euro at 1,3040.
thnks all
will wait for extension or pullback.
cu later

Ldn 10:38 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
MOF"s Tanigaki Sends Intervention Warning To The Market !!!

Ldn 10:38 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
MOF"s Tanigaki Sends Intervention Warning To The Market !!!

perrie como 10:36 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
It smells me the intervention today is to come soon, but on Eur/usd.....suggesting heavy shorts here

perrie como 10:33 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Here we go: "Rock 'n' Roll"

perrie como 10:32 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
If any Japanese intervention point, the market might go test It lower...maybe 104.+ maybe 103.+ hard to tell

van Gecko 10:31 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 09:57 most of the comments on this board offer good free entertainment value - little fishes possies have absolutely nothing to do with euro's path of least resistance.. these are battles waged by big fishes (with some big time losers turning into little fishes eventually).. most 'here today gone tommorrow' little fishes are swimming in a cesspool beyond their depth.. cheers

houston ken 10:30 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
short euro chf target 240 pips in 2 days

GER ad 10:28 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/CHF at 1.5193

perrie como 10:27 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
So go for the classic Swisshaven. :)

Syd 10:24 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Japan Finance Minister Tanigaki strengthens his verbal intervention after USD falls below Y105, telling reporters that current foreign exchange moves require "extreme" caution. Reiterates that MOF will take "resolute action" if required.

melbourne farmacia 10:23 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Next euro channel 1.3065 ish....Gbp - 1.8636 ish

Surabaya CentralMan 10:23 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD is on the upside soon

perrie como 10:21 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Yen and Oceans might stay squeeze for the time being. Take care

Surabaya CentralMan 10:20 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Congratulation..!! EUR/USD confirms to pass 1.3000 psycological parity. So the target 1.3060 is on the way

perrie como 10:18 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Still room for higher Swiss Franc..also Eur/usd and Gbp/Usd, maybe the last little stronger than eur.

Miami fleon 10:15 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
kl
you select the right word for euro...this is really arrogant...I agree

Cape Town 10:13 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) said it raised the interest rate on one-year US dollar deposits by 0.3125 percentage point to 0.875 pct, effective tomorrow. The central bank said on its website it is raising the six-month deposit rate by 0.25 percentage point to 0.75 pct. The bank also said starting from tomorrow it will no longer set two-year rates for deposits of major foreign currencies, including the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen and Hong Kong dollar. Instead, commercial banks will be allowed to set their own two-year deposit rates. The PBoC did not give any reason for the move.

slv sam 10:12 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
buying the usd anywhere now is like a money in the bank...if lower buy more...we have seen all before! it is once in 2-4 years opportunity for longer term of course! NOW: e/$ 1.3030/$/chf 1.1655 aud/$ 0.7785 $/y 104.60!

Helsinki iw 10:02 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Agree with jf and gecko that we are in a blow-off move that could be close to ending, time-wise. In actual size there is still room technically to see alot of weakness in the USD; EUR/USD 1,3470/80, CAD 1,1760/70, CHF 1,11/12 and JPY 103,30/40. Having said that risk controls are as important as always, so keep disciplined stops. Also there is considerable event risk in the G20 meeting this weekend to bear in mind.

Auckland 09:59 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Karachi Request 09:39 GMT November 17, 2004
visit "help" page there is something for you

Bruxville Jim 09:57 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 15:50 GMT November 16, 2004
Judging from comments on this board - fishes have been building and are still building euro shorts. Therefore, the path of least resistance might appear to be UP...

Oilman's Flash clip about sharks might soon be SO relevant again:
http://forex-music.port5.com/

OK, a fresh euro high is needed in advance...


/////


Just got back to screen...
Sharks: "[Chop, Chop] Tasty, I want more!"

van Gecko 09:56 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Kamensk Andy 09:36.. lot easier for dollaryen to bounce up 200+ pips then to go down another 100 pips from these levels..
gl

KL KL 09:56 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
ok all gun blazing short eurusd 1.3031 gbpusd 1.8581. long usdjpy 104.55...looks good locking in the 1 pip on all and going for some food on 2nd thought out gbpusd 1.8571 +10, 104.67 +12...but I want to see arrogant euro GO DOWN big time..so keeping this nice short imho..

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 09:55 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Seems false, not sustained break. B4 NY wait 2940 IMHO

tk jf 09:54 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
ab - as we know plenty of time to trade these markets - if its not today cud be tomorrow - fx markets will always be there - dont have to risk everything for one trade or session

HK Kevin 09:53 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, stop out of long USD/JPY, get back some by short EUR/JPY. Interesting market.

Dallas GEP 09:48 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Stopped -21 pips....on eur/usd short

hk ab 09:47 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
terrific job. Jf, right again.

KL KL 09:45 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
houston ken, I trade using money-poly money....LOL. I am a samurai trader today...fast and swift...what about you?. What long term possie are you in or plan on taking?

btw gbpusd got taken ...rats..thanks to you houston ken...had you not distracted me I would have my +1 pip...

Karachi Request 09:39 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Hello Sir.
Actually I have Invested Some Money In That Market.... Can Company Issue Me The Trader's License..
Thanks..

perrie como 09:39 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Might be the Mrs. Rice influence

perrie como 09:38 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
strange flows however

AKL S.C. 09:37 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
sell, sell, and sell, nothing can stop us short USD, rush,rush and rush, nobody can stop us to reach the target--1.32.

Dallas GEP 09:37 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Shorted EURO 1.2998 stop 1.3019 TP @ +40 pips

Kamensk Andy 09:36 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Van Gecko - Good day. May i know your view on geisha please? TIA

Dallas Mauricio 09:34 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Good Day Everyone! GL/GT

van Gecko 09:32 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
tk jf 09:14.. yes.. those presistent pushers are wasting ammo & injecting good liquidity into the gleeful hands of the sellers up here at these levels.. big time sellers realize these are rare opportunties to accumulate some el cheapo Dollars at unsustainable levels NO risk & lotsa rewards..
cheerios..

perrie como 09:29 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Well on yen..now off here as too o-sold, will check It out later on, as seemingly Eur/Usd Gbp/Usd upside potential might be stronger afternoon, since aseans distributed trought high yielding commonwealth currencies and yen. Think the Swiss franc might be stronger than euro or gbp, but not sure yet.

Seemingly stock advisor suggesting to buy capital goods cos

g/l

trade of the day anmart 09:26 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP-0.7000. We buy at the market. Target- 0.7046.

hk ab 09:23 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
jf//appreciated your short comment. I noticed there's a story mentioning the problem of the deficit in the US gov. yesterday. that might be the ingredient of today's move and someone is betting on this trouble of US govt.

KL KL 09:22 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
ok you guys you get the drift...so I will keep raiding 3-7 pips hope fully every 3 minutes... tired of posting for the period...too much action

out long usdjpy +10 at 69 in long gbpusd at 55

Chicago Goofy 09:20 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
PAR 09:15 GMT November 17, 2004

Cable Doesnt follow the way u said

Syd 09:19 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
The price of gold could fall once the effect of buying associated with the coming launch of two U.S. gold-backed exchange-traded funds subsides, according to a leading analyst with Mitsui Global Precious Metals.

houston st 09:17 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   

WJGM -- 09:30 GMT- UK- Oct Unemployment
09:30 GMT- UK- Nov 3-4 BOE MPC meeting minutes

good trades to you.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:17 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
entry time dudes

Currency Short Long Trend
EURUSD 1.3007 1.2813 Sell
USDJPY 105.6343 104.3733 Sell
GBPUSD 1.8619 1.8191 Sell
USDCHF 1.2005 1.1687 Buy
EURCHF 1.5396 1.5199 Buy
AUDUSD 0.7821 0.7688 Buy
USDCAD 1.2211 1.1879 Buy
NZDUSD 0.7136 0.6962 Buy
EURGBP 0.7058 0.6978 Buy
EURJPY 137.0224 135.0077 Sell
GBPJPY 195.9462 191.8671 Sell
CHFJPY 90.0172 87.7719 Sell
GBPCHF 2.1956 2.1716 Buy
EURAUD 1.6858 1.6499 Sell
EURCAD 1.5702 1.5442 Buy
AUDCAD 0.9459 0.9172 Buy
AUDJPY 82.4234 80.9713 Buy

QC WJGM 09:16 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
What data will come out of GBP and what time please..

KL KL 09:15 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd at 63 +7.....this is trading DAY!!!lots of nervous nellies there

PAR 09:15 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Looking for somewhat better than expected UK unemployment data. Unemployment down 15000 and average earnings up 4.5%.

tk jf 09:14 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
ab - my trading strategy is clear now - wait for an acceleration and reversal of eurusd sell it then with stop above the high - pre-empting a high is too tough - if i have to wait 24 hours so be it - i thought we would have resolved this in nyk last night but it wasnt - i think eurusd will see 1.2750 soon - imo - usdyen cant comment again wait for people to stop out and the mkt reverse - feel like im happy to give away the next short term move for a larger one

Syd 09:13 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Euro FX cotcharts

prague jv 09:12 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja 08:37 GMT November 17, 2004

I have no idea , what do they have there.
but did find this site for some interesting reading
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.htm

KL KL 09:12 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
out all usdjpy +9 at 71 gbpusd +8 at 66 ....it is possible in short term trade.

in long usdjpy at 104.59 sl 7 below 104.52

short gbpusd 1.8570

Chicago CME 09:11 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
what's it gonna take to get this euro to break through 1.30 fig? come on.....

Syd 09:10 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Snow is waffling on Bloomberg tv at the moment god he goes on

hk ab 09:09 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
jf//could you have a brief conclusive view on the current mkt? TIA.

slv sam 09:09 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
anybody predicts big down move on e/y today? 134.50 for example?GT

gold coast martin 09:05 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 03:15 GMT November 17, 2004
FWIW...Not all of the [EUR/DLR]'s 1.3010 triggers would roll off today, according to option traders. Basically structures are placed at the 1.30's, and related stops are reported in good amount (around 1.3010/30/50,etc). On the other hand corporate offers are seen at the 1.30's. To the downside buy interests increase towards 1.2850 especially from longer term fund accounts and real money accounts. Short dated topside strikes like Dec 02 1.32's/1.33's are in vogue. Continue to watch 1.2940-30 resilience. Another 1.30 failure would also be not a good sign.The bottom line is,the 130 barrier issue will be resolved AFTER the G20 meeting on the weekend...The propabilities weigh on the downside as the funds realise that the USD currency devaluation that EU desires, is just not possible in view of the Asian necessary appetite for dollars...in hte meantime the 12950-85 range will exist with the crucial 12932 barrier as a leading indicator of a move to the downside ...first port of call is 12720 after 12932 is breached,,,,,,g/t
This was posted earlier today.....g/t

hk ab 09:05 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
jf//thanks for your useful fx-literature.
It's at the right time.

Helsinki iw 09:01 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Would think the 1,3000 one is knocked out already, of course depending on when it was done?

Syd 08:57 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw but there is another due on friday EUR 1.3000(lge)
thursday EUR 1.3000 and EUR 1.3010 KO

tk jf 08:57 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
houston ken 08:52 GMT November 17, 2004
different timeframes

warsaw tms 08:57 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Some commercial offers at 1,3000 in eurusd from CB???

Tokyo IM 08:54 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
KL KL, I will wait do not want to risk more then 10 pips for it but potential is there. Just waiting for a bit more stabilisation in a move.

Helsinki iw 08:52 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/
Major FX trading bank saying that the K/O at 1,3010 is due to mature today. Intra-day crowd been going short above 1,2950 past few days and stops stacked up every ten pips from 1,3010. Tend to believe this myself.

houston ken 08:52 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
why are most trades in this forum does not accept what the market is doing instead they are trying to predict the market's next move --- the bottom line is that dollar is berish so wait till the market says otherwise.

KL KL 08:50 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM, I am suprise u ask me cos you are native there have better feel of things...veri veri honoured ariko sake I say to long it on any spike below 104.80....I mean below not at 80...today I THINK turn day for OIL , GOLD....also nervous Nellies are getting ready to short cover on a slight smell of BOJ....so like now going below 80...I am also interested to long ... hanging around is sign of bear losing power

ok in long 104.62 asking for it

short gbpusd 1.8574

Dallas GEP 08:47 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Closed last of swiss long @ 1.1720

tk jf 08:45 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
if u want to know more on boj operations etc you can check some links i had in help forum a few weeks ago

tk jf 08:44 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m4131/is_n1_v19/ai_15600976
this is 1994 but you may find it interesting reading - it was a great time for trading back then - with so many events occurring

Chicago Goofy 08:42 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Limit Aussie short at 0.7788 stop at 0.7810.
Reason: Technically, it is gud for a day-trade entry. Second, Gold deserve a retracement soon.

Syd 08:41 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
SBC says EUR/USD daily Stochastics continue to be highly overbought, negative and displaying bearish divergance. With this in mind, the bank favors a corrective selloff with immediate support coming in at 1.2920 ahead of 1.2820.

Bruxville Jim 08:41 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja // Actually you may be right about their small reserves. Moreover, I recently heard somewhere that each USD is backed by gold worth a couple of cents...

houston ken 08:41 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
KL KL are you trading with real money??

van Gecko 08:40 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
some pretty desperate warfares taking place here.. the ammo depots must be getting close to the redlines after 9 days of butting heads with the enemy forces.. patient practitioners of 'AAA' warfare tactics (Art of Ammo Allocation) would simply do a 'BRR' retreat here (Bailout, Regroup & Recruit) down to the 1.27 lines for a higher probability assault on the 1.30 enemies later..

"To achieve an advance that cannot be hampered, rush to his weak points. To achieve a withdrawal that cannot be pursued, depart with superior speed." Sun Tzu: The Art Of War

Sydney Ge11Ja 08:37 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
prague jv 08:25 GMT November 17, 2004

Think you will find Fed actually has very low reserves, like Australia they dont hold a lot of reserves, unlike Asian CBs for example. I think it is something like 20-30 Bio USD?

Tokyo IM 08:37 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
KL KL, what do you think about longing USD/JPY. I have some idea of it closing above 105 today.

Bruxville Jim 08:36 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Syd 8:29// Well, BoJ definitely won't allow greenback to depreciate into the hole down to 1.0000 USD/JPY:))

Bruxville Jim 08:34 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
prague jv 08:25 GMT // Cutting enough trees to print that many Euros would be lethal to Amazon rainforests, which in turn...
Hey, but do US care about mankind at all?
lol

KL KL 08:33 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
ha ha got got my +4 gbpusd....wheee what a day flat and waiting analysing

Syd 08:30 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim actually was watching techy yesterday on CNBC europe showing some charts and said he thinks they have already been in discreetly

Syd 08:29 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim thats the problem , but think the level around 104 may cause a reaction from them , as its getting too close to parity

Dallas GEP 08:28 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY play obviously ... usd/chf I actually MANUALLY closed @ 1.1723....stop was removed when I saw usd/jpy dump....rest of usd/chf still in on those stops are at 1.1690 and their entry was 1.1730. Still a loss so far of course with those first usd/chf longs taken @ 1.1756.

Bruxville Jim 08:27 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
(to Syd 8:18)

Bruxville Jim 08:26 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Syd, let's face it - you'll never know it in advance... Btw, BoJ's pockets are only that deep, so they might pass on this train and wait for cheaper $$$...

KL KL 08:25 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
ok in LONG gbpusd 1.8561...might as well joing the short term trend

prague jv 08:25 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
It could be interesting, what would happen , if FED converted ALL usd reserves into Eur . usd$ miget chepper and could help be more competittive in GLOBAL ekonomi market , rising eur wud help fix deficit and put some presure on competition .

Comon FED , just do it .

Hong Kong Qindex 08:24 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

KL KL 08:23 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Maybe Japan Emperor too busy organising wedding bells....disregarding BOJ warlords jumping up and down at palace gate!!!

Syd 08:23 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
ECB's Hurley Says Euro, Oil Costs Damp Growth Outlook (Update1)
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank council member John Hurley said the euro's appreciation against the dollar and higher oil prices are threatening to slow growth in the dozen nations using the currency.

``The balance of risks to growth are now clearly to the downside,'' said Hurley, 59, in an interview in Dublin. ``We're disappointed that growth, particularly in the euro area, is not as strong as we would have wished. Sudden movements'' in exchange rates ``are damaging to economic growth.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10001006&sid=anTNj8PHnUCg&refer=regional_indices

sofia anmart 08:23 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY-136.25. We sell at the market for 135.55 and 134.85.

Syd 08:18 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
May see some BOJ checking prices soon

KL KL 08:15 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Thanks farmacia too late , in short 1.8570.... since usdjpy rocketing up ... out +10 at 60.... wow fast and volitile day....good!! 2 games now either long usd jpy for quick scalp below 104.9 or short other currency...BOJ lurking....I think they are now asking emperor for overide password...LOL

Tokyo IM 08:13 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Oops, wen for a smoke returned and BAMM Yen just went lower ...

Zurich 08:10 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, Sorry about your long USD/CHF, which was stoped out at 1.1709 :(

Zurich 08:09 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Short EUR/USD taken at 1.2995. Stop at 1.3020.

melbourne farmacia 08:06 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
KL - watch this 1.8580 level

KL KL 08:06 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd -3, why gold up usd down...i don't know but momentum not in my favour now...wait to reshort higher

Bruxville Jim 08:05 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy below 105.00/20 this year's BOJ battle zone might help to overcome 1.3000...

tk jf 08:04 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
kl-kl u will not die wondering

KL KL 08:03 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8563

KL KL 08:02 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
out usdjpy +16 at 105.09, eur also out +2, my gold got taken...sheeze...ok back to one thing attack...eyes & brains not good in this old age...focus .. focus gbp now

Zurich 07:58 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Zurich 07:55 GMT November 17, 2004
Dallas GEP 07:51 GMT November 17, 2004
ZURICH I am LONG usd/chf NOT short


u said u will stop at 1.1709, which means you will LONG at that level. which is getting close :P


Has to be "SHORT", Not "LONG"

Baltimore Zoltan 07:56 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Wow, what's with the big spikes???

KL KL 07:56 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Juneau CAR, Perhaps it is time for West to rip off China now......I like what I hear cos China think they can still play the one way game.

btw short again eurusd at 89 gbp at 50 out at 43 +7,

long usdjpy 104.95...BOJ BOJ warlords coming to secure perimeter

Zurich 07:55 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 07:51 GMT November 17, 2004
ZURICH I am LONG usd/chf NOT short


u said u will stop at 1.1709, which means you will LONG at that level. which is getting close :P

Dallas GEP 07:51 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
ZURICH I am LONG usd/chf NOT short

Zurich 07:46 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 06:59 GMT November 17, 2004
JCR....stops on chf positons are typically 40-45 pips. SL is at 1.1709

This is really strange. You mean you would sell USD/CHF at
this level, even though major support is just 15 pips below?
IMO this level is good for longing, as potential loss is very low
(just stop below this recent low of 1.1695)

Zurich 07:42 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 06:38 GMT November 17, 2004

sorry, had a breakfast.

I will long usd/chf at 1.1710 if seen, stop around 1.1680.

Sing 07:24 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
harbin 07:21 GMT November 17, 2004
try ino dot com

KL KL 07:23 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
out short eurusd at 77 from 1.2982 +5, gbpusd at 44 from1.8552 +8...just for some confidence building +ve better than -ve...my motto

harbin 07:21 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Want to make friends with anyone interested in soybean futures.pengpeng _ harbin at ya hoo dot c om

Tokyo IM 07:13 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
KL KL, me is long on Swissie for now targetting somewhere around 1.8 may change my minds in later. I think Japanese boyes have been asked by US boyes to stay-out for a time being. So I am a bit pissed on them for that. And plus to that they still can not find that password. Goods are expensive but it does not yet hitting the things up so I guess we are in a bit of waiting time. God I hope that they will keep above 105 for longer and descorage more bears.

hk observer 07:09 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
hk ab=hk mom I believe you two have an identity problem, will the real hk ab or hk mom please stand up? lol

Juneau CAR 07:09 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Base metals overbought. Are you kidding? LME warehouse stocks http://www.kitcometals.com/

of copper have fallen from 470,000 tons of copper last December and today 67,000 tons.

China is bidding for Noranda for 6.7 billion. They cannot keep buying metals without running up prices so they are buying the mines.

More money going into china than the US!

KL KL 07:04 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM, forgot to ask where are the BOJ warlords WITH PASSWORD!!!??? Japan not frighten of deflation/stagnation? Your goods now are very expensive, no worries yet??

Dallas GEP 06:59 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
JCR....stops on chf positons are typically 40-45 pips. SL is at 1.1709

KL KL 06:59 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM, GEP's fault...needed to type quickly to let "boys/girl" know what trade I am doing...so clicked quickly too many time I guess & too excited...LOL

btw what are your possie now?

Dallas GEP 06:57 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Zurich, I should have said close relationship.

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 06:51 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 06:38
Zurich

GO ahead and post ...i am waiting..

Tokyo IM 06:44 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
KL KL, are you going for 3 same trades at a same time ?

nyc sa 06:38 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Zurich , could u suggest a good entry level for dollar/sfr after this bear run ? thnx .

KL KL 06:37 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
ok in short eurusd 1.2982, gbpusd 1.8552...lets see ...hope this trade is more prifitable....

KL KL 06:37 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
ok in short eurusd 1.2982, gbpusd 1.8552...lets see ...hope this trade is more prifitable....

KL KL 06:37 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
ok in short eurusd 1.2982, gbpusd 1.8552...lets see ...hope this trade is more prifitable....

Syd 06:34 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Colorado Chief1Oar hey who cares , I was only four when I watched it (nod nod nod wink wink)

Zurich 06:32 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 06:12 GMT November 17, 2004
usd/chf has close correalation to EUR/USD and EUR/CHF.

It's not correlation. Those pairs just move in tandem.
Otherwise it would be simple arbitrage.

You made me smile on this one.

Syd 06:32 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM I think I would prefer to be the Panda if I am going to be a Dollar Bear , but like you at this moment in time very difficult.

orlando jcr 06:31 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GEP,

CHF is down again, what is your SL...???

Colorado Chief1Oar 06:31 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Syd ..

Yes I do... (I don't like to age myself publicly tho... lol)! But I'm glad someone else can remember it too....

Chief..

Tokyo IM 06:28 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Syd 06:22 GMT November 17, 2004// I am not yet desided but more USD$ bull then last week. My targets are within initial 150-200 pips on majors. That is just general idea. I am still watching that thing very closely. I would pay a lot of attention to USD/JPY pair and see where it is going to break and then I will be more in the place to deside if I am bull or bear or just a bull-bear(panda).

Syd 06:23 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Colorado Chief1Oar remeber that Rowan and Martins laugh in

Syd 06:22 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM are you Bullish USD this week, and if so, whats your target.. sorry to hit you with a question just need a new perspective

Colorado Chief1Oar 06:22 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Syd 06:19 GMT November 17, 2004

Thanks for the reply... verrrrrrrrry interesting ..!!!!!!

GT
Chief

Tokyo IM 06:20 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Morning ALL.

Syd 06:19 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Colorado Chief1Oar I have no idea but interesting
WMC Resources' Olympic Dam mine contains around one-third of the world's uranium resources in a single deposit in South Australia state.

Dallas GEP 06:15 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Well KL, yes I am shorting EUR by proxy by LONGING usd/chf!!! LOL I think we might see 1.18 usd/chf in asia/london but of course I could be wrong

Dallas GEP 06:12 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
JCR, usd/chf has close correalation to EUR/USD and EUR/CHF. Notice how usd/chf longed EVEN when EUR/USD was longing??? What was happening at that time was that EUR/CHF was longing keeping usd/chf from shorting down much. It is good for day trading and it at times moves BEFORE the other ccy pairs. It can actually move MORE quickly than most ccy pairs and it normally does so in spurts AFTER periods of slower pip ups and pip downs (like we are having now). It HAS been QUITE heavy but like all the USD pairs probably is due at least for some short term retracement. Cuurently we COULD see 1.1720/30 area IF eur/usd sees 1.2990 area again but I kind of expect euro to have offers around 1.2985 and usd/chf to have bids at both 1.1740 and at 1.1730

Colorado Chief1Oar 06:09 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Good evening all..

Syd 05:10 GMT November 17, 2004 ..

was reading your post on the uranium, and as I am not familiar with this project, I don't understand why China would need uranium at a Dam project ? Can you shed a little more light on this for me?

Thanx for the reply...

Best to all this evening...

Chief

KL KL 06:08 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
orlando jcr 05:56, I should have taken the profit earlier before it went down...still angry!!

GEP you shorting eurusd yet....gold is headind to my 441 sl...rather worrying.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:57 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
I am Doing this today

Currency Short Long Trend
EURUSD 1.3007 1.2813 Sell
USDJPY 105.6343 104.3733 Sell
GBPUSD 1.8619 1.8191 Sell
USDCHF 1.2005 1.1687 Buy
EURCHF 1.5396 1.5199 Buy
AUDUSD 0.7821 0.7688 Buy
USDCAD 1.2211 1.1879 Buy
NZDUSD 0.7136 0.6962 Buy
EURGBP 0.7058 0.6978 Buy
EURJPY 137.0224 135.0077 Sell
GBPJPY 195.9462 191.8671 Sell
CHFJPY 90.0172 87.7719 Sell
GBPCHF 2.1956 2.1716 Buy
EURAUD 1.6858 1.6499 Sell
EURCAD 1.5702 1.5442 Buy
AUDCAD 0.9459 0.9172 Buy
AUDJPY 82.4234 80.9713 Buy

orlando jcr 05:56 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GEP & KL,

I don't normally follow the swissie...
Since it was a slow night, I've been watching the pair since your initial post of a long a few hours ago.

What type of swing does this ccy pair normally take.
I see it's gone down about 12-16 PIP since you initially went in and is coming up some now.

What do you have as a target...??
What is the normal turnaround on this pair for short term trading...??
Is this pair good for quick scalps or is it more of a long term type of ccy...???

KL KL 05:55 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
see what I mean in gbpusd...looking to reshort higher now....just waiting till ....oh dejavu short again 1.8544 out 41 +3...don't like macd up momentum down so wait again to reshort. Cannot get this shorting out of my head....just prefer to trade it now in view of the daily charts!!

Dallas GEP 05:47 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Well KL. I am still IN.

Chicago Goofy 05:45 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Got final exams this week so didnt stay glued to the monitor..anyone can tell me why there is 14pips up in AUD/USD at 2:50 GMT?

TIA

KL KL 05:37 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
rats my usdchf got taken...angry now!!

KL KL 05:33 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, I will try, may come up again in the next 10-15 minutes..yes yes ...just for the boys/girls it is coming up but you may not get the 45 maybe 43/44......at 44 my silly must take 1 pip gain kicks in so I will be flat then and you will be holding something that potentially can go up higher....it is a funny game!!

Ldn 05:32 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
AUD Offers between 7740/80 from prop accounts and
models.
EUR option-related offers well ahead of 1.3010
barriers, some expiring tonight. More offers ahead of 1.3050

toronto dr.unken kat 05:28 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
judging cable by what i see on 4hr is the fact that looks still long , we r in the middle of the BB range , and could be good short from 8600 if it gets there
yeah, its a suckers market now

Dallas GEP 05:20 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
The dollar BEAR positions are making LOWER highs I mean......dammmmm!!!

Dallas GEP 05:19 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Of course it could change immediately, but the current VERY short trend is that dollar bull positons seem to me making lower HIGHS against the dollar which typically would mean, the dollar bulls will start to make lower lows as in the EURO. Range so far has been 1.2900-1.3000 but is possible we MIGHT see a gradual readjustment of the range downward to 1.2880 to 1.2985. This is VERY dynamic however but that is my immediate impression. SECONDLY the commodity currencies seem to be trading at levels that are INFLATED (as was mentioned here earlier) so BOTH NZD/USD and AUD/USD COULD make sudden drops so be careful here.

Syd 05:14 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin when you consider the rates here are higher than most industrial nations and the economy is doing just fine, think that the US should get on and raise rates to 3% and not worry about the ramifiacations of it because I dont think their will be 3% is still ridiculously low.

Syd 05:10 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
The Australian government on Wednesday effectively ruled out a successful bidder for WMC Resources Ltd. (WMR.AU) being allowed to ship uranium from the miner's Olympic Dam project to China.

A spokeswoman for Resources Minister Ian Macfarlane pointed out that China isn't a legal recipient of Australian uranium under the government's policy that controls the destination of Australia's nuclear exports.

Dallas GEP 05:09 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
KL, if you can post quicker so the other boys and girls can follow if they want.

KL KL 05:05 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
SHORT GBPUSD 1.8545...

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 05:01 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
So hows everyone doing today? so does it recoil today eurusd let's see. things are not going to be too easy for eurusd bearsih move!

TIA:-)

Hong Kong Qindex 04:47 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


gold coast martin 04:46 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
.SYD.....AUST PM John Howard states that interest rates will always be lower under a coalition govt than under a Labor govt after being questioned by the opposition party on RBA Governor Macfarlane's forecast last night that interest rates would rise in the next 12 to 18 mths. Market reaction has been mild to the speech, which merely stood to reiterate RBA's moderate tightening biases. However when added on to todays benign wage data, RBA is seen clearly in no hurry to raise rates at this stage..Fwiw g/t

Syd 04:29 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Australian wages growth remains constrained despite the lowest unemployment rate in more than a quarter of a century, giving the central bank more time to hold off from raising interest rates Westpac expects the RBA to hike interest rates by 25 basis points in March 05, but McCarthy said other data will have to print strongly if that hike is to occur at all

Hong Kong Qindex 04:21 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dallas GEP 04:16 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Well KL, NOW I see eur.chf may hold here so I am long here myself on USD/CHF as well @ 1.1756 (ask)

LA Fxnew 04:16 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
hi all ..
any view on cable?
kinda thin today...
thx

Dallas GEP 04:08 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
AS a matter of fact all SWISS pairs gapped DOWN about an hour ago. We have a terrorist situation or what guys or did the SNB decide to BUY some SWISS????

Hong Kong Qindex 03:55 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dallas GEP 03:54 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
KL, eur/chf looks pretty weak now, could pull usd/chf short

Dallas GEP 03:51 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Actually an hour ago

Dallas GEP 03:50 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Got sa big gap down on EUR/CHF charts about 2 hours ago. Anyone know what that was about???

KL KL 03:21 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
ok shorted some gold here at 440 sl 441...I think there is a big spring recoil happening in USD....how can good data for past week met with -ve USD. twin deficit fact of life....

long usdchf 1.1752

prague jv 03:17 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
looking at short/mid term direction on moust ccy , there is simly none .
Juding from paterns and my cycles which has been neutralized last couple of sessions , there is more then 80 % change it will continue this way .

The only little surprise of movement can be on eur/jpy up direction , but first do expecting some chop chop .

KL KL 02:54 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, don't worry u may get it at 77 or higher, 10 pip more see you there

Miami fleon 02:54 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP

1.2965 @ 8.30pm Eastern time in my plattform

Ldn 02:51 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
December Nymex crude off 26 cents on Access at $45.85/bbl, session's low, as players await U.S. inventory data later in day; crude stocks expected to build 1.9 million bbls with gasoline, distillate stocks also tipped higher. Data may set new course for market: If fail to show build in stocks, prices likely to snap back, though others say any gains will be short-lived as speculators, hedge funds continue to bail out; the market is in a bear trend. That means the declines are easier to achieve than rallies
reuters

Dallas GEP 02:48 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Connect test

Dallas GEP 02:22 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
THX guys

Dallas GEP 02:22 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Missed it by 2 pips GD it!!!

Chicago JMI 02:17 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 02:11 GMT November 17, 2004
1.2967 bid

Babuyan Isl MGW 02:16 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
GEP, High Eur/Usd 1.2970/75

houston st 02:15 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   

GEP -- .66 bid..gl/gt.

Dallas GEP 02:14 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Hurry please...a little dispute

Dallas GEP 02:11 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Guys in the last 6 hours, what was the HIGH bid on your systems for eur/usd PLEASE??? I had a 1.2987 short that NEVER got taken

Hong Kong Qindex 02:10 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market was trading within the neutral zone of my daily cycle for the last 24 hours. It is still valid in Asian session.


Hong Kong Qindex 04:25 GMT November 16, 2004
EUR/USD : The neutral zone of my daily cycle is located at 1.2900 - 1.3003. A projected supporting level is expected at 1.2850 - 1.2865 and a projected resistant level is positioning at 1.3054 - 1.3061. The daily cycle normal trading range is 1.2815 - 1.3109.


A) : ... 1.2851* // 1.2870 - 1.2888 - 1.2907 - 1.2925* - 1.2944 - 1.2962* - 1.2981 - 1.2999* - 1.3018 - 1.3036* - 1.3054 // 1.3073* ...


B) : ... 1.2834* - 1.2850 // 1.2865* - 1.2880 - 1.2895* - 1.2910 - 1.2925* - 1.2941 - 1.2956* - 1.2971 - 1.2986* - 1.3001 - 1.3016* - 1.3031 - 1.3046* // 1.3061 - 1.3077* ...


C) : ... 1.2800* - 1.2825 // 1.2850* - 1.2875 - 1.2900* - 1.2925 - 1.2950* - 1.2975 - 1.3000* - 1.3025 - 1.3050* // 1.3075 - 1.3100* ...


Projected barriers of my daily cycle are as follow :-


... (1.2750) - 1.2769 - 1.2798 // (1.2808) - 1.2825 - 1.2829 - 1.2847 - 1.2861 - (1.2866) - 1.2875 - 1.2886 - 1.2893 - (1.2925) - 1.2957 - 1.2964 - 1.2975 - (1.2983) - 1.2989 // 1.3003 - 1.3021 - 1.3025 - (1.3042) - 1.3053 - 1.3075 - 1.3081 - 1.3085 - (1.3100) - 1.3117 - 1.3125 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 02:05 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

OK SZ 01:59 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 19:46 GMT November 16, 2004
OK SZ 19:27 GMT // Great article. Thanks.

Jim, you are welcome. I just stepped in and saw your post. I see some did not appreciate the post. Oh well I will not post anymore in that context. GL, GT to all

hk ab 01:58 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
hk mom 00:32 GMT November 17, 2004

I don't know who you are. However, recently I notice that you try to type in my way to confuse others for me pretending mom or the hk family.

It's up to you. But your strategy looks very cheap.

Life "loss" the hk family.
If you are the dad, you should use your own handle.
If you are the son, I think you have eaten many hats already.

Syd 00:52 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Australian wages remain "extraordinarily" muted,3Q wage price index +0.9% on-quarter RBA On Hold - Macq

hk mom 00:32 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
bc// you see many fearless Dollar bears buying Gold/Aud/Cad/euro here?

Ldn 00:26 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Euro: Where Can It Go - 1.20 or 1.40?
http://biz.yahoo.com/censored/041116/1100625443_42618_1.html

HK [email protected] 00:24 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
ldn 23:20 GMT November 16, 2004

So the invasion of Iraq was 1000% justified.
Who knows what more will be discovered about this character Saddam.

shanghai bc 00:17 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   

SDY -- Good morning..Still expecting the medium-term bet on God/Aud/Cad/euro against Dollar will pay off nicely in coming weeks ..Gold has been doing much better than all other currencies leading them rather than follwoing them recently ..Short-term Dollar bounce is stil in the card though for a week or two..Dollar bears should have to lose fear first before Dollar can start meaningful medium-term turnaround and I can only see still cautious and timid Dollar bears at this stage,which means the medium-term trend is unlikely to be reversed that soon..Good trades.

Ldn 00:15 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
Fed's Moskow-more ground to cover in raising rates
CHICAGO, Nov 16 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve still has work ahead to return official interest rates to a neutral level, Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow said on Tuesday.

"Accommodative policy has been necessary to support economic growth, but as the economy continues to strengthen and employment picks up, interest rates will need to return to a neutral level," Moskow told a Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce breakfast.

Noting the Fed has raised the federal funds rate to 2.0 percent from 1.0 percent since June, Moskow added: "There is certainly more ground to cover."

Syd 00:07 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc how will that affect the commodity ccys, ? cannot see it would be to great

shanghai bc 00:01 GMT November 17, 2004 Reply   

Divergence between the Metal for the Kings,the Gold and the King of Metals ,the Copper is an interesting one..Something very unpleasant may be on the horizon on economic front..Stagflation is a good possibility and Dollar may tank further in the worldwide stagflation scare scenario..Fwiw.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube




pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
Managed Forex Accounts
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2019 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105

?>