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Forex Forum Archive for 11/18/2004

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Dallas GEP 23:57 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
JV, what puzzles me is when I am in a round room and someone tells me to go sit in a corner.....very disturbing!!! LOL

But seriously tho, what is it that puzzles you about eur/stg???

tk jf 23:56 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
jv - leaders and followers - eur shud be leader into w/e - gt

pr jv 23:54 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
I do see eur/usd in neutral band , till belowe 1.3000 and above 1.2910 . Thinkg will stay there till 20G on w.

tk jf 23:53 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
jv - lower

prauge jv 23:33 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp is puzling me now . any thoughts out there??

London. 23:30 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan comments on the US external deficit along Governor Gramlich this week who joined the chorus of Fed speakers discussing US imbalances but his prescription is for improved fiscal discipline, not a weaker USD.

Houston CAP 23:29 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
HI guys I am kind of new to the forex trading. Those anyone recomend a good charting book that I can read?
Please let me know.

Good Bless all.

houston st 23:25 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   

AMC -- when you get time later IM me...gl/gt.

Ldn ;-) 23:17 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Dollar plunge adds to global tensions

ny amc when you get talk llike that , its definitly time to take your profit .

Ldn 23:14 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Rubber falls as yen strengthens

ny amc 23:11 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Just reading an article that states Morgan Stanley's currency guy , Stephen Jen , says that to have any appreciable impact on the deficit Eur/usd and Usd/Jpy would have to reach 1.80 and 60 respectively.

LA fxx 23:05 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi all,

Despite of the up trend, do u all believe that cable will drop that low breaking 84xx level to 83 and lower?

thanks

Syd 22:58 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Something to look out for

"Euro in wider circles" scheduled for 1.30 pm GMT (8.30 am NYT).

Traders ease dollar shorts ahead of G-20 by Ashraf Laidi
The dollar edged off Thursday’s lows as traders went scaled down their dollar shorts ahead of this weekend’s meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bankers in Berlin. With the week’s major data release being concluded today, market players turn attention to the G-20 meeting and tomorrow’s

SPEECH BY FED CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN AND ECB PRESIDENT JC TRICHET
at the European Banking Congress 3rd annual panel discussion in Frankfurt tomorrow "Euro in wider circles”

The US October leading indicators index fell 0.3% last month, defying expectations of a 0.1%, drop and matching the magnitude of the decline in September, which was revised from a 0.1% drop. This was the fifth monthly consecutive decline, a pattern not seen since 1995. The Conference Board said “the weakness in recent months has become more widespread…. However, the recent declines in the leading index have not been large enough nor have they persisted for long enough to signal an end to the current economic expansion”. Only 3 of the 10 indicators making up the Index had a positive contribution. These were; falling jobless claims, rising manufacturers’ new orders and rising stock prices. The negative contributors were consumer expectations, real money supply, interest rate spread, vendor performance, average weekly manufacturing hours, building permits, and manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods.

On the manufacturing side, the Philadelphia Fed survey on manufacturing conditions fell to 20.7 in November from 28.5%, while the new orders index fell to 22.1 from 24.6. The employment index, however, pushed up to 17.4 from 14.1 while the prices paid index fell to 53.9 from 57.1 Interestingly, the 6-month outlook soared to 52.1 from 27.6, after having tumbled to 27.6 in October. All in all, the survey could be shrugged off by traders now that oil prices have built a range around the mid $40s per barrel.

Applications for unemployment insurance fell by 3K to 334K while the 4-week average edged up by a 1K to 338.2K. As the leading economic indicators index showed, the drop in weekly jobless claims is drawing a positive picture

Greenspan, Trichet warm up before G-20

On their way to this weekend’s G20 meeting in Berlin, Fed Chairman Greenspan and ECB president JC Trichet will speak at the European Banking Congress 3rd annual panel discussion in Frankfurt tomorrow on "Euro in wider circles" scheduled for 1.30 pm GMT (8.30 am NYT). In all likelihood, neither of the cen bank chiefs will make any remarks on the strength//weakness of either currency pairs. Instead, we expect them to recognize the euro’s rising dominance in the Eurobond market. Both Greenspan and Trichet are likely to stay away from any market- moving remarks especially as these two as well as the G20 finance ministers/central bankers will gather later on in Berlin for the G20 meeting.

Traders should look for the use of the following words in the communiqué;

“flexibile FX systems”: meaning countries must allow their currencies to float more freely, i.e. a hint to China (dollar negative);

“stability”: cautioning against excessive moves in currencies (dollar positive); and

“market based moves”, implying that currency moves must generally be left to the forces of supply and demand (dollar negative).

When all is said and done, we expect the terms "flexibility" and "market based" to carry more weight, just as was the case in the last three G7 meetings, where the interpretation pointed to extended but cautious dollar-selling.

Euro stabilizes

There was more of the same from ECB officials cautioning against further appreciation in the euro officials. Their receptiveness towards China’s readiness to improve exchange rate flexibility. We reiterate tomorrow’s speeches on the euro from Greenspan and Trichet (see above analysis). EURUSD resistance stands at $1.3040, followed by and 1.3070. Support stands at 1.2970, followed by 1.29. and 1.2830-35.

USDJPY awaits BoJ report

Traders will first scrutinize the comments form the BoJ following the release of the BoJ monthly report. In light of the yen’s strength, we expect the BoJ to issue a cautiously optimistic assessment outlook in order to avoid any fresh appreciation in the currency. The Bank of Japan conducted 3 three fund-supplying operations ahead of any potential liquidity shortage as a result of 4 bond issues next week which could push up yields.

We reiterate yesterday’s remark from a senior BOJ official stating he didn’t think a strong yen was “a major risk factor for the economy". As the central bank continues keeping a low profile and the Ministry of Finance sticks with its same rhetoric, currency traders will be only emboldened to drag the dollar towards the 5 year low of 101.20s. Markets are watching the key support level of 103.40, which was a 4-year low in April. A breach of it calls up 103.80 and 103.60. Upside capped at 105.30, followed by 105.70 and 106.50

tk jf 22:53 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
typically friday tends to be a continuation of thursdays move - the only chance for eurusd rally shud be in early london and shud be weak - these characteristics shud help in positioning for remainder global day - would anticipate eurusd trading no higher than 90-92 or wud mean the downside wud be higher - euryen also will give a clear sign and shud remain below 135.35 -gt-

BEIRUT MK 22:18 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
eurusd confirmed short term reversal
my target is 1.2660.
if you are lucky you could short it again at 1.3010


Syd 22:15 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Euro profit taking sets in before the G20 meeting Snow looks like he has got some explaining todo .

Sheffield SH 22:10 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Interesting Cable tech level 8465/80:
1. Former l/t t/l res across pks of 18/2 and 19/7 - comes in around 8460
2. 38% fib 8195-8637 @ 8468
3. 50% fib 8309-8637 @ 8473
4. 62% fib 8379-8637 @ 8477
5. short term trendline support @ ~8470
Lower sees 8365, 8280/8300 and 8200 having Fibo confluence too
GL/GT

Wien GD 22:09 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
This implies you expect a $ rally ... seems you are kidding ... who should buy that buck ... except for some consolidation here?

Helsinki CeCom 22:01 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
just bought a long 300k position AGAINST the EURO, I dont think the ECB will slip it much further right away, there should be a correction coming sooner or later. Look at earlier charts, the excessive speed of this rally indicates a sell off soon. Maybe we get smarter after the G20 meeting.

The simple fact is that the EURO is really hurting the exportindustry. It might help on the price of raw materials but. But with a falling oil price we might see a correction in EUR/USD. Thats at least what i think.

cheers and good night

Ltn th 21:31 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
The nature of todays dollar rally suggests more an opportunity for bears to reload. The question is will we see better selling opportunities before monday or not? The rally had been overdone but not as much as some recent ones. Can anyone comment on MOF or BOJ sanitisation strategy?
Can anyone explain the fixation some seem to have with 1.31 eurusd rather than the more significant 1.36 figure which must be attractive to some l/t players?

Sydney 21:17 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
With $USD at or near multiyear lows against the Canadian and Australian dollars and the Swiss franc. as Van Gecko says many of the medium term players wouldnt consider buying at these levels

River Falls_USA_ PB 21:08 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 17:35 GMT November 18, 2004 ///was away from my trade station from 17:30 'till now...yes am short €/$ from 3020 and 2995 peeling some off at 2950 holding the rest for more retracement. I layer a momentum indicator when volatility returns. Seems to work well with this pair.

Chicago CME 20:36 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
$/CAD. Some basic EW counting from the May highs. The bottom (if indeed it is a bottom) around 1.1900 is a wave 3. If this retracement is for real then wave 4 could terminate anywhere between 1.2250 and 1.2475 without doing any serious damage to the long term downtrend. Subsequent wave 5 could then take us down to 1.09-1.12 early next year. Comments?

Sydney 20:31 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD Large option barriers are reported at 7850 and 7900 along with falling gold prices and a broad Dollar rise saw Aussie fall back with a large model fund weighed in with fresh shorts and AUD/NZD selling , target now 7720

London. 20:20 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 20:07 GMT the big problem is the green eyed monster - always gets them in the end

London. 20:19 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Recent foreign exchange market developments are of concern, Swiss National Bank board member Philipp Hildebrand said on Thursday.
"In Switzerland, recent exchange rate developments are something of concern," Hildebrand said in a question and answer session after delivering a speech in New York
The dollar has fallen steeply against the Swiss franc this year, reaching a near 9-year low versus the Swiss currency

London. 20:17 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 20:07 GMT the problem with the excess of shorts, the Hedge Funds will be watching each others back who is going to cash in the profits first pre-XMAS , most Funds have been running at a loss most of the year and the Dollar decline has bought a light at the end of the tunnel, as we all know the light can be switched off and profits disappear before your eyes. Think if many want a bonus for christmas will take the money off the table. It just needs a change in talk from Snow drop and the Dollar could rally fast.

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:07 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
London. 19:44 GMT November 18, 2004// paralleling your post, since hedge funds fund some 30% of FX (mainstream scuttlebutt) that's a BIG long position load to disintegrate on profit taking, 9 on Richter scale..just as some new EU CBs placed € sell orders into 1.30-1.31 range. Once 1.31 is considered support we'll see some fast/wicked action feeding frenzy, not competing for same food, eating each other as fast as they can..every shark for itself. Add to that Ninjas from BOJ, US Treasury cannon fire in reprisal...sheesh. Agreed? What think ye? Time to plant my potatos.

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:53 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
knoxville dan-k 19:19 GMT November 18, 2004// draw support line from 9.5 hrs ago on 5 min 5 day E/$ chart to approx 1.5 hrs ago extending it to rt margin of cht. It gives me a 50/50 for up/down. Overall mvt is UP so I bias slightly UP. I wouldn't trade on this chart AT ALL for time being. I don't think Japan has entered the fray yet so this is just a retrace of a hump only to be met with another hump..and another etc..

I sence a strong strong 1.3100 $ bear - € bull barrier that may take into next well into week to bust thru to call it "support"...then Japanese Ninjas may come flying in to "save" the USD, bust up the "support 1.31" but walking into US Treasury cannon fire and a storm of USD electrons with magic electronic $$ and paper c'ncy reserves in the stock room coming out of nowhere. US Treas did print up truckloads of bills not long ago to fend off bank runs caused by sustected terrorism..what to do with all that cash but to use it before it's obsolete. This could be the scenario next week. Ought to be interesting.

Halifax CB 19:53 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi London - I don't know when the minister spoke, but he must have been up early beause that move started early this a.m. I know, it cost me a small packet....More interesting - and maybe this is too political for the FF so I can follow it up on the other side - is that the Canadian PM has fired a Liberal member from his caucus, Caroline Parrish. She was rabidly anti-American, and it wouldn't surprise me if there was some pressure on Paul Martin from the States to dump her as an example. As in, maybe we'll lighten up on the CAD if you stop supporting such nasty people..... Makes for a good conspiracy theory anyway.

Santo Domingo tht 19:49 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Thks Otto

berlin otto 19:45 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Santo Domingo tht 19:27 GMT November 18, 2004
berlin otto 18:57 GMT November 18, 2004
So your hedge is an order to enter the market the opposite way of your original position. Is that correct? Just curious.

Yes,
I need my hedge opposite in specific situations.

London. 19:44 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Some fund managers caution about extreme positioning of the hedge fund community in the currency market that could possibly reverse the dollar's decline.

"Markets have definitely exhausted the short dollar trade. And when everyone's leaning on the same side of the boat, somebody often gets wet," said Jes Black, hedge fund manager at Black Flag Capital in Hoboken, New Jersey.

The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitment of Traders Report shows net long positions in the euro surged to record highs, suggesting the euro zone currency is becoming increasingly susceptible to profit-taking.

Santo Domingo tht 19:43 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Thks Bahrain

London. 19:35 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   

Canadian dollar dropped across the board today as a government official warned of potential difficulties stemming from the strength of the currency. Transport Minister Jean Lapierre bluntly warned of potential damage to the economy due to the rapid rise of the loonie.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:34 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Santo Domingo tht 19:27 GMT November 18, 2004
//
Generally have to probablity for that...
ie.
say for this
1.3165 1.2942 buy for euro
the buy level is at 1.04% that I am wrong
for both trend and level
say euro get to 1.2942 and buy 99 lots...I would have to short one

London. 19:33 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
U.S. Dollar Gains As G20 Nears
The U.S. dollar gained ground against most major currencies today, as traders squared positions ahead of this weekend's G20 meeting. Profit taking on short dollar positions was rampant

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:28 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
auscad is good short for long term

Santo Domingo tht 19:27 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
berlin otto 18:57 GMT November 18, 2004
So your hedge is an order to enter the market the opposite way of your original position. Is that correct? Just curious.

Short Euro after 1.2960/80 didn't hold. Buying again at lower levels mid 1.28 or perhaps around the 0.38 retracement of the 1.1986 - 1.3072 move.

knoxville dan-k 19:19 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
r we having a restbit on eur/usd on the uptick for more downside or is this dog gonna bark up the 130+ tree again

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:18 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/Yen.gif
Chicago

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:13 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
..E/$ higher than 1.2980 indicates my declining support line from 9 hrs ago on 1 hr 5 day chart would be in the shredder..NO direction known to me if that happens except if 1.3000 within 2 hours = soft bias to upside retest of old long territory.

chicago joe 19:10 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
anybody think we'll get another chance today to sell yen under 104?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:08 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
I don,t think by next monday will have higher level then 1.7760

Sydney 19:08 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips got it thanks

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:04 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
syd... looks like a sell

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:02 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Have to friday levels---> Right side

Sydney 19:00 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips looks like a low of around 77 is best place to try and pick it up ?

berlin otto 18:57 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Van jv 18:50 GMT November 18, 2004
place hedge opposite ??? Explain Please

If you have situation like this:
buy gbpusd 1,8585 ; but in the specific circumstances like today you must place
hedge sell gbpusd 1,8565
this hedge sell protect you against much lose and you
don t need to place stop loss.
Hedge sell you can remove when the basicaly way /to buy/ is going on.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:57 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
AUSUSD
Might wanna take a look
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/AUDUSD.gif

Sydney 18:50 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
berlin otto 18:46 Otto thank you

Van jv 18:50 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
place hedge opposite ??? Explain Please

berlin otto 18:46 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
One more time,...
I don t see strong retracement on this levels near term,
my opinion is uptrend is favourite
buy aud against usd.
You must place hedge opposite or stop loss.
Good luck!

Sydney 18:43 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
berlin otto , I think so also , however do you see much retracement here in the short term thanks again.

berlin otto 18:41 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Sydney 18:36 GMT November 18, 2004
berlin otto 18:31 Otto do you do aud, what levels are you looking to pick up Euro also, cheers

Dear,
yes, I do work with aud /usd
my opinion is
aud should be go to 0,80 ; pick up from Feb, 2004.
Sincerly yours,...

Sydney 18:36 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
berlin otto 18:31 Otto do you do aud, what levels are you looking to pick up Euro also, cheers

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:35 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
E/$ chart returned to my declining support line path drawn from support 8.4 hours ago...dip was a fluke/bull trap. That's why I've got strict rules. Will have to buy €s mañana at soonest..maybe after EZ & US data has made path more defined, maybe not. 1.28xx looks better now for 1st buy or bust.

SanFrancisco TG 18:31 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Short Cad.

berlin otto 18:31 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
I told /recomended/ that the right way is buy gbpusd and
buy eurusd.
But my words was: be patient.

Philindex, l.indicators, jobless and so on!

you must place hedge opposite or stop loss on recomendations.
In next few hours or one or two days all my recomandations will be in +.
Look my history!
Good luck boys and ......is any girl on the chat?

SanFrancisco TG 18:30 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Tokky - Long Gold.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:29 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
sorry about that

EURUSD 1.3165 1.2942 buy
USDJPY 105.8115 102.2567 sell
GBPUSD 1.8779 1.8400 buy
USDCHF 1.1756 1.1456 sell
EURCHF 1.5252 1.4996 sell
AUDUSD 0.7963 0.7703 buy
USDCAD 1.2140 1.1777 buy
NZDUSD 0.7227 0.6999 buy
EURGBP 0.7073 0.6975 buy
EURJPY 137.0463 133.6142 sell
GBPJPY 195.3177 189.8598 sell
CHFJPY 89.7926 88.6026 sell
GBPCHF 2.1828 2.1293 sell
EURAUD 1.6825 1.6362 sell
EURCAD 1.5787 1.5444 buy
AUDCAD 0.9572 0.9250 buy
AUDJPY 82.1869 80.8339 sell

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:28 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi Guys
Doing these for the rest of the day
EURUSD 1.316528326 1.294197786 buy
USDJPY 105.8114662 102.2566821 sell
GBPUSD 1.877871298 1.840034896 buy
USDCHF 1.175608366 1.145556835 sell
EURCHF 1.52516836 1.499613407 sell
AUDUSD 0.796270476 0.770294971 buy
USDCAD 1.214020904 1.177716564 buy
NZDUSD 0.722714908 0.699915602 buy
EURGBP 0.707288042 0.697504785 buy
EURJPY 137.0463485 133.6142466 sell
GBPJPY 195.3176909 189.8597655 sell
CHFJPY 89.79255893 88.60255812 sell
GBPCHF 2.182805553 2.129338214 sell
EURAUD 1.682542274 1.636235321 sell
EURCAD 1.578731085 1.544410977 buy
AUDCAD 0.957204742 0.925034849 buy
AUDJPY 82.18692701 80.83386508 sell

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:21 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Hal, Tks for that..will give it a try. Idea is to try em all actually..time is free, decision is serious. Yes, I go counter mainstream a lot too as you can tell; when (not if!) I trade pathetically & a lesson's learned, please bring that out to newer traders..afterall we owe them so they won't become a sad statistic. Your & my wins fortunately add up more than losses..so we're still in the winning circle yet one keeps on learning (if one is to keep on succeeding).

Oops..no 1.2940 yet, no entry yet. The plan must survive human greed. 30 mins to go before FX closes here.

London Tokky 18:17 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 16:50 GMT

Thanks for your comments. I am looking to long spot gold @ 441.00 and be out before end of trade tomorrow. I can't bear the uncertainty surrounding tomorrow's 2 major meetings. What do u think?

London. 18:16 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Worth a read..

Axel Weber, head of Germany's Bundesbank has an interview to be published Friday in The Boersenzeitung
U.S. monetary policy towards more neutrality, as well as more vigorous expected economic growth in the U.S. than in Europe.
Weber says that the recent appreciation of the euro against the dollar "undesirable," while acknowledging the weak dollar reflected an adjustment due to the U.S.' large current account deficit.
http://www.boersenzeitung.de




quito_ecuador_valdez 18:11 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
My burro's 1.2940 entry plan is NOT for day traders...looking at 10 days-2 weeks layered possie here on dips, all the way to Brux's 1.27 hopefully.

Halifax CB 18:10 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
ahh, valdez - cheers, & bottoms up...But I've gotta tell you, I've made my living going the opposite direction for far too long to change now :). Or maybe just picking my own direction - I get the feeling you'd be sympathetic to that.... As for posting trades, it's no worse than posting my art (or posting about the demos, most people would die rather than admit that.) speaking of demos - did you try the ones from m*e*t*a*q*u*o*t*e ? I use them for charting and collecting data for my number crunching...they are very good.

Dallas GEP 18:10 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Thnaks STUBBS...I am now out of those as well with +28 pips avarege

Dallas GEP 18:08 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
OUT on LONG GBP +30 pips. Out of CAD shorts +20 pips

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:05 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville// Use what you see for my yahoo.

Bruxville Jim 18:02 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Valdez, do you yahoo?

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:01 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Halifax my dear friend, for benefit of new traders, not an admonishment (I ain't yo' papa), thou shorteth yon longing chart. (apply Valdez's rule #1.) You've got strong guts to post your trade. (Valdez slides a cool Molson's down the bar to Hal.)

Here is where the USD charts rest for a bit. Am eyeing phone to call bank ..a wee poke of Euros at 1.2940 soon (if) it hits again. Not before no matter what...gotta be sure this move is on semi firm landing site for first layer...temptation got Eve in trouble.

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 17:56 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   

S1-1.2938 1.2938 (LOW))
S2-1.2931 1.2931
S3-1.2900 1.2901
S4-1.2850 1.2851

BEIRUT MK 17:50 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
i think usdjpy will take turn this time to take us
to 105.90 level..

Halifax CB 17:45 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Well, we're out of USDCAD shorts with a not overwhelming loss, having topped it up in the 80's. But I really don't like what's happening over in Euro (once it broke 1.2955) so better safe than sorry. Probably time to join valdez & his burro on a ride south....GL/GT

BEIRUT MK 17:45 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
mamun, i think eurusd will break 1.2850 soon
for the awaited correction back to 1.2660

manila stubbs 17:41 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Gep - great call on your eurgbp shorts. wanted to short it but was waiting for 0.7050 - now i missed it.

gold coast martin 17:40 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 17:35 GMT November 18, 2004
Valdez..the biggest decision for you when$ at 12720 is :do you take the profit of your 124 position or you ad,hoping for 131...look at last year when $ was at 127 position..should give you direction......g/t

SanFrancisco TG 17:39 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
In case anyone is interested, I've posted a small official sampling of the progress to date in Afghanistan.

london mamun 17:37 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
BEIRUT MK

do you think sell eurus target 2850

jkt-aye 17:37 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
jkt-aye 14:07 GMT November 18, 2004
USDCHF...from 1H + 4H chart reading, imo it going to test 1.1690 for 1.1730 target with stop 1.1640. Happy hunting.

If you are long it, square half now as tgt hit, raise s/l to 1.1690 for the rest and ride to 1.1740-50 or maybe 1.1775

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:35 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
River Falls// Oh I've been raiding all along big guy, 8 demos since last Spring...never bothered to post FF with "fake trades" like some do. Personally I love raiding but it's kicked my royal afterburner more times than I can count...hence my bleek outlook on Valdez the pip jock. El Burro is better! Finally getting what I hope is "the hang" if it. Humm..but maybe like the shagrin of fondling a padded bra once I go platform live.

Hope yer right about 1.27 amigo...we all need a few more Xmas bucks. Now el psyco barrier of 1.2950 is busted, path to 1.28 seems possible before NY close. Have 1.5 hrs more to call bank FX office or forfeit to Asia & London. Don't let me down Tokyo IM, Ldn!

River Falls, do you have €/$ short or €xxx short in progress? This chart wants to fall.

BEIRUT MK 17:34 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
sorry.. short audjpy at 81.25 if seen stop at 81.77 target 80

London. 17:33 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Gold also taking a dive lower $5 , may be in for a stint of Dollar strength into the weekend

BEIRUT MK 17:32 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
will short audjpy at 1.8125 stop 1.8177 target 80

eurusd will soon break 1.2850 take care..

Halifax CB 17:31 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Re Euro - the drop right now is pretty close in size to the one Nov 5th (the retracement of which was immediate and around 200%). But I sure wouldn't bank on it happening again....

Dallas GEP 17:31 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Sorry that cad was about 10 minutes ago

Dallas GEP 17:30 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Shorted usd/cad at 2085

london mamun 17:30 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
BEIRUT MK. iam new in fx market,
i just took your booth tips and made some money.
thanks you

Dallas GEP 17:30 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
longed cable 1.8485 tight stop

London. 17:29 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Crude Oil in NY falls $1 barrel as supply panic eases
should see it drop further targe m/t $36

hk mom 17:26 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
I exits all the shorts on euro sideline now.

BEIRUT MK 17:25 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
still hold short eurusd at 1.3046 stop at BE
still hold long gbpjpy at 193.20 stop 191

also, shorted gbpusd at 1.8509

London. 17:22 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Phila Fed Expectations Surge
Phila Fed components aren't as bad as the drop in the headline balance suggests. "New orders fell to 22.1 from 24.6, but employment rose to 17.4 from 14.1 and expectations for the next six months actually surged to 52.1 from 27.6,With the backdrop of oil prices falling rapidly, confidence rising, and equity markets making further gains, it appears that manufacturers are increasingly upbeat on their future prospects, which is likely to trigger further Fed rate hikes in the coming months says

ING anaylsts.

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:21 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Lagos Tunms 16:56 GMT November 18, 2004// The way the chart's heading down now on 5 day fxtrek chart I'd say the bull$ are going to walk lower than 1.2930.. past base level before last upmove of chart 11/16. bulls could charge down to 1.28 today (I hope) as it's only 40+ pips away from now...but 1.2950 is a temp psyc barrier (we'll see shortly..pun intended) so keep fingers Xed. My 1st Euro buy target just changed (with that fast drop) from 1.2950 to 1.2920 w/idea of lowering entry level further if chart obliges. BOJ is not doing this however...too smooth a descent over 8 hrs...this is a natural waterfall.

HK Kevin 17:18 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Short USD/CAD at 1.2083.

River Falls_USA_ PB 17:17 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 17:06 GMT November 18, 2004 ///sounds like your burro started drinkin' and you are now visiting the casino with your new platform - the lust of pip raiding lurks deep. Well have fun all the way back to €/$ 2750 before reversing to the long trend. gt

Halifax CB 17:15 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
not fom here dan-k! we're out.

SanFrancisco TG 17:13 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Tokky - also it is clear my price quote is likely a little lower than yours. All relative ... still under pressure but not much more.

Philadelphia Caba 17:13 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Sold EUR/CHF @ 1.5175

knoxville dan-k 17:12 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
any opnions on the floor on eur / usd for the day?

GER ad 17:10 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/CHF long
Out at 1.5186 (-7 pips)

SanFrancisco TG 17:09 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Tokky - Spot Gold still under pressure. Format would be to go Long after it clears above 441 and retraces to the figure but holds +/-. But as it remains under pressure it is entirely possible it continues to decline and the format is just shifted a little lower to a different level (say 440.50 or .75). As it stands right now, it is appearing that the 441 level should be the level to work from, I think the downside is exhausting intra day term. Closely watching it right now.

jkt-aye 17:07 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
three white soldier works on 4H usdchf ?

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:06 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
€/$ chart still shorting nicely..support line loses 100 pips steadily in 7 hours (14pip/hr) & obiedently in last 8 hours..no sign of stopping YET. O .a .n .d .a demo made over $9K this AM on easy 5-10 pip 5-10 lot plays 1.8 pip spread, mostly shorts. Never long a shorting chart. 1.28 C'mon baby!!!

Sydney 17:05 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Russian Forex Basket Shift Seen Cosmetic
analysts said the move is largely a cosmetic one designed to make it easier for the central bank to meet its self-imposed targets regarding currency appreciation.
Korishchenko the central bank intends to keep the current weighting of foreign exchange reserves unchanged for now.

London Tokky 17:01 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 16:50 GMT

What do you think about spot gold at its current level (about $442/ounce)? Long or Short?

Chicago CME 17:01 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
weak philly Fed 20.7

Halifax CB 17:01 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Now that things are slowing down a little (though the Fed release isn't out) - if 1.296 holds (or more) on €/$ we may just be in a new, but slower, bull regime for the pair. I think that's the next behaviour I'm going to target. Waiting and seeing, but picking up the odd contract in the 70's...( & Still short USDCAD)

Lagos Tunms 16:56 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 16:46 GMT November 18, 2004

valdez, ur a long term player. U think we'll get to 1.28xx anytime soon? eur$

LA Fxnew 16:52 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
long cable here .. for 30 pips

SanFrancisco TG 16:50 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Valdez - I am also tempted to short $Cad pretty soon even if only for a retracement. Currently spot Gold remains under pressure but will inevitably be picked up by some shortly. The $Cad 1.3 figure looms and the currency is up 140 pts since Asian open, so while the intra trend could well continue those taking real money positions would be hard pressed to add up here considering the "weak dollar" policy.

London. 16:48 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
US jobless claims 3K To 334K, the fourth week in the last five has been between 330k and 340k, signalling a new lower range They signal that the labor market is strengthening. It is widely believed any range below 350k permits hiring to take place.

Chicago CME 16:47 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
$/Cad: incomplete pattern, but we could be heading for an outside week reversal pattern with an up close. Not a reliable pattern by itself but coming at the end of a phenomenal run it could set the tone for coming weeks.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:46 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Depending on what happens after NY lunchtime, if it flattenes out until EST 1330 I'm very tempted to buy at least some Euros below 1.2950 as the case may be so I've got some ammo in the grab bag at least lest the price increases. Naturally we all want to see 1.28xx to resupply our guns with cheap ammo. BOJ especially would be glad to help us reload at 1.28xx. This is a classic case for layering of entries IMHO, increasing slightly each small buy on dips on the downmove so as to save 50% for the final low ball bargain basement purchase. Hopefully some of you pip jockies shorted at 1.3020ish or higher so us longie types can see some victors at the start of our attack.

Van jv 16:38 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Phil Fed in 20 min////tomorrow G20 + Speakers Corner on Eur..
US Fed's Greenspan, ECB's Trichet, BoJ's Iwata Speak on the Euro...U can join in this corner

houston ken 16:38 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
short euro chf

slv sam 16:37 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
caba/
yesterdy low imo.GT

River Falls_USA_ PB 16:36 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Chicago CME 16:07 GMT November 18, 2004///yeah, it's a big move and should precipitate the correction downward in €/$. GT

Philadelphia Caba 16:34 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 16:26 GMT November 18, 2004
e/chf is good time to long target 1.5350 soon!GT
May I ask you on your s/l? Thanks.

ldn 16:34 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Al-Qaida was plotting a "big bomb" attack against a major U.K. landmark, but had no active plans to strike the U.S., citing the latest analysis of evidence that led to last summer's Code Orange alert The plot was aimed at setting off a large bomb at a prestigious economic or political target inside the U.K. London's Heathrow Airport, Houses of Parliament, and Westminster Abbey were among the targets considered in detail by the plotter
Newsweek Web site Wednesday

Chicago CME 16:33 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
$/CAD: Look for a retrace back towards 1.2000 and then overnight move to 1.2165 and then NY tomorrow towards 1.2250. A break below 1.1980 and I think 1.18xx is back on the cards.

houston ken 16:32 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
sell eur chf

Halifax CB 16:30 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ - nice analogy. But whichever kind of goose it is, I don't want to be underneath it when it decides to let go....

manila stubbs 16:29 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 16:22 GMT November 18, 2004
thanks buddy. i see what you mean. we'll see it soon enough. g/l & g/t

GA TJ 16:28 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Will also pay attention to where the next swing low ends up on USDCAD. That may be a good indication of things to come.

slv sam 16:26 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
e/chf is good time to long target 1.5350 soon!GT

GA TJ 16:26 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 16:19 GMT November 18, 2004

So what is it? A Rebel or a Leader? If this is another one of the USDCAD cliff climbing moves only to take that beautiful dive (Goose imitates Seagull) to new lows then that should happen tomorrow. Else it may fly (Goose imitates Soaring Eagle). I take note when I see this happening because you never really know with this pair.

Ldn 16:24 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Fixed income flows driving down EUR

Bruxville Jim 16:24 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Investors Business Daily:

The euro fell to $1.30 in recent trading, as the currency market used an unsubstantiated rumor of Osama bin Laden's capture to buy back the battered dollar, said analysts at Action Economics.

http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=24055540&brk=1

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:22 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Manilla stubbs// No, I don't think at least a partial reload of €s at 1.2859 would be premature. I'm going to do it given the chart isn't in a vertical dive yet at that level. I'd put a conservative portion of your longing play cap at that level (if we reach it through the bear onslaught). If it continously longs then stack in some more...tgt 1.3075-85. Psyco warfare from Japan may create another temporary resistance at 1.31...seems to be their red flag zone.

Great idea OMIL..no fights today please fellas. If someone throws a tantrum just ingore him/it as you would any adolescent on a testosterone trip.

The rest of this session & next session 'til NY week close Fri I see as likely "watch 'n wait period. Monday-Tuesday marks what I expect as a practice op for Wednesday D-day renewal of bear effort next week from powerful bull $hooter$ & very heavy field commanders, afterall, they can lurk in foxholes only so long before resuming their original USD a$$ault of 2002. As the battle thickens at 1.31-1.3150, not only the sellers of Euros (remember new EU member CB sell orders!) take profits (Their sell orders are in place already..fact.) but Japan's Ninjas may counter attack..first with psyc warfare..not guns..if that doesn't work and it won't...then they start fighting. End of next week should produce body count/mass graves for those who "guessed wrong" continuously in the heat of battle. I think excellent semi predictable volitility for swing trades will see my treasure chest filling with fresh battlefield booty.

Very short term..chart still hasn't proven other than shortish - albeit flatly scared. G'span's talk show w/ newbie EU members could be in effort to modify their thinking/€ sell orders so as to better lubricate the skids for steady & sure USD descent. I haven't given up on Greenie.

Miami fleon 16:22 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL
I totally agree with you ...all is about price movement and profits from the movements...

Dallas Mauricio 16:22 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Waiting for the Philadelphia Fed Report @ 17:00 GMT.

Halifax CB 16:21 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Stopped out on EURUSD....Time to wait & see...

Halifax CB 16:19 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ - re. CAD; it's just a little too high spirited. ST counter trend movements of 100+ pips in it are not all that unusual. OTOH, on my more cynical days I tend to thnik the big guys use it as a signaling device....

tk jf 16:18 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
ab - 135.00 holds the fate for eurusd from here - was little too palin for eurusd earlier so prob a tokyo move later on - gl-

YVR TTT 16:18 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=$DXY

Chicago CME 16:15 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Manila: 20 min. delayed $ index can be found on futuresource.com.

manila stubbs 16:14 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
anyone know a site that shows live dollar index? together with the chart. TIA

jkt-aye 16:13 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR...on 4H chart I found this 1.2980-90 level should be watch for next move cuz 1) it is on TL (draw a line from 1.2240 to 1.2650), 2) in the mid BB line, 3) close to Parabolic SAR. Break this cud lead to 1.2890 ???

Calabash TarHeel 16:13 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 16:02 GMT November 18, 2004
Wondering the same. Thinking about a short around 1.2120 if seen. Also wondering if we will see some dumping of $ shorts across the board prior to the weekend meeting.
gl,gt

Budapest Daniel 16:09 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Jim it is far from Hungarian LOL :)

Lisboa Pedro 16:08 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
$cad shows the same Euro candle shows today ... GL

Chicago CME 16:07 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
River Falls_USA: I know the 10y Tsy-Bund spread has retraced a bit, but has it really moved from +52 to +28bp? 24bp? don't have bloomberg in front of me right now, so can't check.

trade of the day anmart -fx 16:04 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY -135.35. The pair is a sell for 135 and 134.85.

Bruxville Jim 16:04 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Zorro, was it in Hungarian, Portuguese, or Slovenian?

GA TJ 16:02 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
So far the only Daily chart that I see has sustained some tech damage is the USDCAD. That was an easy one to see coming. Now the Q for me is - Is USDCAD playing the role of leader or is it just being the renegade of the FX World. A Rebel without a Cause. Time will tell.

Bruxville Jim 16:01 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Nē nu cirvis paliek cirvis, ko gan tur padarīsi...
BTW (starp citu), "Muljkji" is a transliteration for "muļķi"...

EU ZORRO 16:00 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 15:57 ....thanks...it's six o'clock... ;)

hk mom 16:00 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Boyz and Galz, what did/do you notice on the bloomberg before usdjpy reach 135.xx? And when eurusd just reached 1.30xx? Thoughts.

YVR TTT 15:59 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
p i ou r-quoi they go long at 186 when we have a large 185 exp. today. gbp usd. to fill there own pocket i guess.

manila stubbs 15:59 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
manila stubbs 15:40 GMT November 18, 2004
this whole eur$ uptrend from oct 12 had a trendline, which is now at 1.2980. if broken, could be brutal to 1.2754 38.2%, or even to 1.2650 50%.
quito, you think reloading at 1.2850 might be premature?

sorry this is supposed to be for valdez

Bruxville Jim 15:57 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Zorro, tu iedomiigais muljkji, ko tu tur saki?:)

knoxville dan-k 15:53 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
well im not hitting the broad side of a barn today, took usdjpy long at 104.40 and it falls short, took it short this morning and it went long, going to turn screens upside down

EU ZORRO 15:53 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
esta é para o Pedro...abraços e bons negocios

EU ZORRO 15:52 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   

...ANDAS COM A MÃO QUENTE....!!!!

Lisboa Pedro 15:50 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Furthermore, long term trader should wait for 1.2845 to print, which will be next (just don't know when)

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:49 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Tom// Yes...minor retracement of yesterday's hype & tests of high ground..altitude sickness only. I see minor consolidation right now which could go any time either direction as this is "test the system" time. I don't think Japan has shot at us yet...it's market fidgetyness IMHO. I think fat cats R lurking as they should be. I'd say targets at 1.3100-1.3150 would draw fire from BOJ psyc warfare dept.

Lisboa Pedro 15:48 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
This is what I wanted to mean when I said "we need price action and not just politicians' words". Just closed my short euro from 1.3070 here at 1.2990. Also, technically, note the successive gbpusd falls to break (and stay above) the 1.8615/20 level ... thes things work much better than politicians' words .. GL everyone

River Falls_USA_ PB 15:44 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
fwiw USD favored with a fundamental: German Bund/US Treasury spread on 10year rate has collapsed from 52 to 28 bp over the last 24 hours. gt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:42 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Most of the times I try not to make sense of the market just try to figure out where it is going I usually find out why later. The reality is not the news or the trader’s ideas on the market. The reality is the price action. I hope we can keep it civilized today to absorb some good comments here.
I have second wave retracement numbers are 2970-80, 2900-10, 2850-60, 2800-10 and 2740-50 for the eur/usd pair for now. GL GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:41 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Treas forum: Login Forums/Treas Forum

Support E/$ for last hour seemed to be as you said..but now that mvmt has finally commenced, 1.2950-65 isn't out of the question. Chart still in very short term short mode.

Halifax CB 15:40 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
hmmm, well so far EUR has missed my SL by 6 pips, and 10 for USDCAD. I ain't going to move them though. If they go, they go. Picked up another USDCAD short, though - in for a penny, in for a pound. BTW Valdez, what's a shorting chart (as say, vs a dip)? Always a hard one to decide :(

Antwerp Tom 15:40 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Valdez, €/$ would this be a minor retracement (3073 -> 2980) of +/- 100 pips in the larger picture? (see your posts of yesterday)?

manila stubbs 15:40 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
this whole eur$ uptrend from oct 12 had a trendline, which is now at 1.2980. if broken, could be brutal to 1.2754 38.2%, or even to 1.2650 50%.
quito, you think reloading at 1.2850 might be premature?

Tokyo IM 15:39 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Goodnight all, GT/GL

Van jv 15:36 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez////support line about 1.2980?

nyc sa 15:36 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
could someone plz tell me how to access the treasury forum ? thnx.

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:34 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Yea, well, GEP also has steel appendages.

OMIL// Amen. GV comes thru again FREE to FX family. Newcomers: "Treasury Forum" & "Analysis & News" links on right hand nav menu are also tops.

GVI john 15:34 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:23 GMT November 18, 2004

The work was all done by Cumino on GVI. We thank him for his wonderful insights.

Surabaya Medallion 15:33 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
U.S. leading economic indicators fell 0.3 percent in October

And Euro is falling heh? :)

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:24 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Short term, €/$ is a shorting chart to 1.2950. Valdez's Rule #1: Never long a shorting chart. Never short a longing chart.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:23 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 15:04 GMT November 18, 2004
Great post looks like a lot of hard work went in to those figures. I hope these comments will come more often. GT

Zurich 15:16 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
If you ned to relax and have a good laugh, go to archives
and search for Dallas Gep for the last 2 days.
Really amusing guy :)

GVI john 15:04 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
GVI-CUMINO SURVEY ANALYSIS
SURVEY:
For every survey there are several sets of figures. The first is the % bull index, the second (in brackets) the previous result. Then there are three readings: respectively the %bears, the %neutrals, the %bulls. The sum is obviously 100% (differences are due to rounding).

For the bull index:
An absolute value above 50% is bullish and under 50% is bearish. Reeadings are actual compared to the previous reading. Changes in components reflect perceptions about the equilibrium prices and are thus a sign of the future volatility perceived, the changes in sentiment.


EUR/$:
1) Short term : 45 (43). 40,30,30 (34,46,20). In absolute terms bearish, in relative terms unchanged but looking at components 30 is the highest number ever seen for the strong bullish camp, albeit the difference with bearish is not very high. The 30 neutral is the lowest ever seen for the neutral camp. The main reading thus is that for one reason or another traders feel that future spot will not remain around 1.30. The neutrals accentuate this perception.

2) 3 months: 52 (57). 32,33,35 (18,52,30). As above note the volatility. Sentiment that EUR/$ at the end will correct lower. Note that neutrals went 33% from 52%, bearish 32% from 18%, bullish 35% from 30%.

$/JPY:
1) Short term: 49 (54). 36,29,35 (13,65,22). High volatility perceived with increased sentiment on the low.
36% moved from the neutrals, 23% to the bearish camp, 13% to the bullish.

2) 3 months: 44 (42). 31,50,19(31,53,16). Bearish, but comfortable with actual prices. By looking at the whole survey traders do not appear convinced that $/JPY will stay meaningfully lower.


OIL: 3 months: 44 (49). 24,65,11 (30,42,28) Bearish. This is the highest neutral number ever seen, mostly at the expense of the bullish camp. Looking at the whole history there were two prevailing op[inions: that oil was only temporarily high, and that we had already seen the top.

INTEREST RATES: traders have always been bearish on rates, overall last survey. This is the first time they changed becoming neutral.

INTERVENTION: few feel that there will be coordinated intervention. It is difficult know if this is more due to U.S. policy or because traders do not expect pronounced dollar weakness.

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:03 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Tks for info ref: €/$ buying on dips...confidence from €/$ Longfellows. Methinks early yet..be cautious as a black cat at night.Hungry for 1.28-1.2930-maybe opium dreams...tight-in possies - risk ridden, loaded w/ sucker punches. US Treas can print semi-fulls of USD as MOF repellant..electronic money..cost is zero..firepower infinite. BOJ ninjas may regret using swords & karate chops against heavy longrange artillery. Do I hear U.S. artillery piece$ emplacing in distant horizon? Will check with Europe contacts to see what their CBs are up to...if anything.

This chart segment can short to 1.2950-75 fast...hold off on buys IMHO 'til up movement is guaranteed. (risky word in FX hence entries = risk).

Chicago CME 15:02 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
DJ 08:56 USDA: Second case of mad cow disease possibly found in US"

GVI john 15:01 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Thanks to all who participated in the GVI biweekly survey

The BiWeekly Survey of professional forex traders by Global-View.com, the original forex forum saw the mean forecast for the eur/$ for December 3, 2004 of 1.2933. The mean $/yen forecast for that same date was 105.68.

The mean three month forecast for the eur/$ for February 17, 2005 was 1.2894. The mean $/yen forecast for the same date was 105.18.

65% saw Fed Funds at 2.25% at yearend vs. 11% two weeks ago.

The mean Crude Oil price forecast for February 17, 2005 was $45.03.

In a special question, 72% said the odds of forex intervention was 30% or less between now and the end of 1Q05.

For complete survey results go to:

CLICK HERE

Chicago CME 15:00 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Austin: Info available for options on futures (ccy), but bulk of trading is OTC and therefore reliable info generally unavailable.

gold coast martin 14:59 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Wonderful supporter OF THE USD the MITSUI BANK!!!........G/T

Austin rb 14:58 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
chicago cme

talking about large options on a given currency that may contain price till they expire

Halifax CB 14:56 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
CME - right on, that line (currently at 1.299 or so) is still holding, though, and it was a break down of a similar resistance back in early Oct that preceded the current run up. But I'll still probably bail if it does break....

Chicago CME 14:55 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
A large CTA joins the battle above 1.3000. I think he's trying to defend stops below 1.3000.

Dallas Mauricio 14:51 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
US Leading Indicators in 10 minutes.

Tokyo IM 14:51 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez// the only place I can offer right now is a hotel but I am planing on a hous next year so we will see.

Chicago CME 14:49 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
EU$: a real BATTLE going on just north of 1.3000.

Chicago CME 14:47 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Austin: If you're talking futures and options-on-futures, try CME.COM

Austin rb 14:46 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
does anyone know a site to obtain info on forex options such as open interest and strike prices and expirations thanks

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:42 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
CB// We are/were fortunate to have grandparents in the financials...sorry abt your experience early on..but made you tougher, wiser, sharper. I'm about to go "live" with one of these new fangled platforms, keeping the old black telephone handy however as I trust it more than anything the Internet can offer (old foggie as I am). Platform liquidity, company stability..seasoning, performance, overall good flavor are my "gustas" search right now...tried 8 plats so far...landing on the one rhyming with panda and a lesser known bank..want two plats..backup ammo stash..old 'Nam philosophy for survival.

IM// invitation accepted, wife & I want Japan..2005 Q3 or 2006..must reciprocate w/ Ec. Your turf=shining jewel of the East...magnet 4 me...once Yen subsides & yankee buck advances in tune w/ my model 2 buy more hot saki! GT amigo. Apartments/villas...200 sq.mtrs...Hakaido(sp?)..¥/meter?

Chicago CME 14:41 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR$ meeting a lot of buying with every dip. Don't know if its fresh buying or short covering from yesterday.

slv sam 14:40 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 10:54 GMT November 18, 2004

Gold advice for lucky traders:

Buy $/Y now at 104.05 for at least 107.
$/y low is in place for sometime imho.GT

it is not late at all for traders who did not believe sam!GT

Quebec Swap 14:40 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD 1.2900-40 here we come. retracement

Miami fleon 14:38 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi Forum:

I will like to know if somebody in the forum is using hedging technic to trade
Thanks

Gen dk 14:32 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Atlanta-South 14:32 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez: I too would like to say thanks to you for your trading wisdom. Your comments are alway helpful & serve to open my eyes to the obvious that I sometimes fail to see. My trading style is Postion Trading, but sometimes in the SHORT TERM. On Wed I shorted EUR/USD @ 1.3027 looking to catch a retrace. This AM I close this trade @ 1.3001 AFTER the trend reversed. @ this time I see support @ 1.2980. In you opinion could this be the correct support or do you see lower before we complete the journey to 1.3200? @ this time I am long EUR/USD from 1.2835 & will hold until the FINAL DESTINATTION. Your THOUGHTS & COMMENT would be appreciated as I'M a new TRADER of 3 YEARS.

Moscow Vasya 14:32 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
All my indicators show that usd cant grow any longer - what you people think of it, pls?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:25 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Thanks TOM, Valdez I appreciate your kind words and those are the ones that keep me coming back just keep in mind that the trend is your friend and never bet against it. Buy on dips for eur/usd pair is always a good idea for now until the price action tells you other wise. I am working hard on getting better at this business all the time and give better and more accurate comments about what I believe is going on with the eur/usd pair. In the near future I will have comments on other pairs as well too. GL GT

sg tpe 14:24 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
with cad creeping higher, shud see rest of ccy to fall if cad can remain abv 1.2025 (Resistant b/c supp now)
Agreed??

Halifax CB 14:24 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Agreed valdez; but just remember experts don't last forever (think of Soros's up & downs, or the Nobel prize winners at LTC that had to get bailed out but the US Gov't). My first experiance in the market was as a kid - my gandmother was buddies with the guy who ran Manhatten mutual, and it cost me a fair bit...The streets are littered with them. But what's good here is that there's lot's of bouncing around of ideas without any gunfire at all (well, other than verbal) :) FIW - we are back shorting USDCAD at 1.2055, long again on EURUSD.. The stop on EURUSD is just below the rising support, the stop on USDCAD is +50 pips; we take profits by moving the stops once trades are in the black (narrow them down tightly). So virtually every trade gets stopped out. When I trade a number of contracts on the same ccy (say by averaging up or down), I use the same SL for all, once the batch is isn the black. There's the long & short of my trading technique!

FWIW re China - I still don't have a good sense on techniques to trade that one directly; SNDA stock was doing well as a stand-in. But on the 2nd down day I dropped it - but +25% in a couple of weeks wasn't bad though. I still have some China based ETF's, which are less volatile. GL/GT

Tokyo IM 14:23 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez I am still waiting for your visit to Japan for a botle of hot sake.

dc CB 14:23 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
FWIW
Re: CAD. I have noticed that in the past CAD, when in an uptrend, has sold off in Nov. toward the US Thanksgiving holiday then resumed the uptrend to year end and beyond.

Antwerp Tom 14:19 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Valdez, you gained all this knowledge in only 8 years? Not bad.
Thanks for your input and helping others, i wish i could do this..:-)

JHB CDB 14:17 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Thank You Valdez

Livingston nh 14:16 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Chicago CME 14:06 GMT November 18, 2004

USD/CAD has had trouble w/21 da sma (around 1.2105) but MACD has crossed after a month of failures - maybe cable next and then swissy?

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:14 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
River Falls// Tks amigo. I have as much fun as you do. You will notice my heel biters also dine on other's heels as well..picking grit out of their teeth at times of course...you will also notice the lacking in their posts of thought, style, trading philophy sharing & other useful things newer trades need. My posts are not for the pros, they already know what I post and much more of course..my posts are to help newer FX traders as I once was 8 years ago...and had no forum.

OMIL, I missed you too. Glad to see you back in the pub. (Valdez buys a round on the house for everyone with a side shot of hot saki for the heel biters to ease their tensions. :^>)

Moscow Vasya 14:12 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd and gbp/usd seems to be double-bottomed now and would probably return to todays highs, a?

Antwerp Tom 14:11 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, you surely underestimate yourself. I usually write your levels (support/resistance) on a little piece of paper and carry it with me during the day (i find this very useful as a reminder of where we are).
So get back soon! :-) GL (whatever you're doing)

jkt-aye 14:07 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
USDCHF...from 1H + 4H chart reading, imo it going to test 1.1690 for 1.1730 target with stop 1.1640. Happy hunting.

Chicago CME 14:06 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Technical break in $/CAD. Next stop 1.2250 by end of week. Which will be next to break? EUR$ or $/JPY?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:06 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
I hope everyone has been doing well these days as we can say of eur/usd pair as the little train that could and did. This train has been chugging along at an incredible pace and leaving everyone behind that thinks the deep correction is just around the corner. I have said this before so I will not even waist space here to say it again as I have given my main objective in my other post for this bullish trend for now. Intraday indicators are unwinding and begging as always for a dip and this steep hill trend with daily indicators drilling holes in the top of my monitor and trying to turn south too. Weekly indicators have reached oversold but still bullish. Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3040-50 3080-90 and 3140-50. Retracement numbers are 3020-30, 2980-90, 2960-50, 2930-40 and 2900-10 as long as 3070-80 holds it’s ground. Top T/L is around 3000-10 and bottom T/L is around the 2970-80 and both act as support now. Support is around the 3000-10, 2970-80, 2930-50, 2900-10 and 2860-50 for now IMHO. GL GT

Budapest Daniel 14:06 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Guys is this 1.3000 a support line on eur/usd?

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:05 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi CB// My initials too in fact. You're right..patterns & trading philosophy/sound advice from experts & pros patient enough to enlighten us with their honored wisdom are worth 100X the position posts in MHO although top traders' positions are extremely useful & what the FF wa$ originally designed for...you have to filter. Not wanting to offend here..text with out face-to-face at times is overly brutal.

That's why I offer (at times controversial) trading thought...if it turns sour, we all at least know what is defective and hopefully WHY...learning from each other's errors & wisdom is the point & being flexible enough to factor in new things into our trading styles is the goal. FX isn't competitive, it's like a huge family business, each gaining from each other's input, albeit keeping out from under foot of T- Rexes on the move for our very chops. Tks for the heads up in fact! GT amigo.

BEIRUT MK 14:04 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
my long usdcad got stopped at BE, i should have hold it
much longer.. i am really a stupid man

River Falls_USA_ PB 14:03 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez
gotta' let you know how much I enjoy your posts - not just your trading acumen, but your gift for humor, parable, and wit. You really should consider writing a book perched there in the beautiful mountains of Ecuador. Keep it flowing and don't let the nasty heel biters on this forum phase you!
IMO the step down for EUR/USD has begun with 2850 my intial target..then on to 2700 before going long again. GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:00 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom 16:40 GMT November 16, 2004
Thanks for the flattery and I miss giving my comments but have been busy with other things lately and I frankly did not think anybody would miss my comments at all.

Gen dk 13:58 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Tokyo IM 13:56 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
I'll be back in 30 min ...

Tokyo IM 13:55 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 13:50 GMT November 18, 2004 // About the reasoning and the plan of the positions, projections, views, you name it ...

Toronto YV 13:51 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Medallion , that is for tomorrow .

Gen dk 13:50 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Halifax CB 13:50 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM - that's cause when the market is flat, what's there to talk about? Valdez - I figure why put in numbers? by the time I get around to posting it's usually several minutes after the trade is taken, so in a fast market there's not much use to 'em, and I can never remember them precisely anyway...But I am interested in what patterns people see in the data, and what ideas they are trading off of (rather than the actual trades themselves). Right now for me the interesting patterns are the EUR support line, and the lagged correlation between EURUSD and USDCAD which has been pretty profitable, today at least. Maybe I'll even hold on to the EURUSD, and see if I can collect on that 23 pips per day you mentionned yesterday! GL/GT

Surabaya Medallion 13:46 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
"US Greenspan speaks in Frankfurt at European Banking Conference 13:30 GMT"

So has he spoken yet?

Tokyo IM 13:45 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:34 GMT November 18, 2004// I guess yu are right, it can look like an easy sport/ easy money, but what most of the people fail to realize that it is a hard job with lots of studiing and research, economics, news, GV forum, etc ...

SanFrancisco TG 13:45 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Great posts Valdez. Inconceivable that anyone would not gain something from almost every post.

Gen dk 13:44 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Stockholm AGuy 13:42 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:14 GMT November 18, 2004: "Political Forum please."

Huh? No, your most enlightening post is in the Help Forum: "quito_ecuador_valdez 02:54 GMT November 18, 2004". I absolutely love the last part.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:34 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
IM// That's because (using examples) GEP and Beirut are honest ones who admit to stop losses..if all stop losses and margin calls were posted it would require another forum entitled "Loss Forum". FX is littered with dead bodies & wounded from the last few days & I suppose a large 3 km long 100 meter wide trench will have to be dug for mass grave disposal of dead FX traders in the next 120 days or use them as shark chum in the South China Sea.

Gen dk 13:32 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Tokyo IM 13:27 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
I noticed interesting thing: less market moves less posts are made on this forum, it is even funny.

BEIRUT MK 13:19 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
stopped out at BE on usdcad at 1.2011

BEIRUT MK 13:17 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
stopped out at BE on usdjpy

melbourne farmacia 13:16 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Vereeniging Will - ok . GT

Dallas GEP 13:16 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Shorted some more eur/gbp @ 7025 only possie open is this e/p before data.

Scarborough TG 13:15 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Canadian took the lead all the way up and know is signally a turn the other direction.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:14 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 12:42 GMT November 18, 2004// Good question & a classic one for newer traders.

The reason I didn't close my 1.2420 yesterday is because all my life I've been a position trader so I'm not skilled like GEP & some others at day trading or frankly, pip raiding..fast ins & outs. To diversify my overall FX endeavor I have two types of trades: swing & position. I realize probably I could gain more if I only swing traded but I'm able to sleep at night with the diversity..a plus factor in itself because I know I' will always make money, and that's the object of trading but without ulcers & sleep deprivation. Life is not just $$. I do have conviction for many reasons that 1.3065 (my critical point as posted) will not be the high for € so my position trade plan to 1.32 (or higher) is doing fine..many stairsteps have already been taken..it doesn't worry me if retraces happen in this case..just part of the trip up. I strictly hold some positions to plan maturity, no exceptions, others like the one I closed yesterday at 1.3030 are for fun & sport to gain a few more trout for the creel. Keyword is "plan"..got to have a solid well thought out plan on paper. My methods yield at least 40% per year practically risk free on my cap, depending on the year's quirks...some years better, some a little worse, but much better than bank & commercial paper actions.

I suggest new traders adopt this "diversity of trade style" to stabilize the risk factor. Hey, bank FX rooms & most large funds (Soros's traders included) for instance don't pip raid at all..they have much too much accounting to "the boss" for that...at most they swing trade..days or week trades, but mostly position trades. Take a lesson from them. Pip raiding is the highest risk of all trading but in the hands of a skilled day trader it can make a 500 pip position trade into a 1,500 pip opportunity..or more..with higher risk of course.

Stockholm brings rays of sunshine to FF. Political Forum please. Stop losses and margin calls again, amigo? Thank you. :^)

Stockholm AGuy 13:10 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Today's recommended reading: Help Forum post "quito_ecuador_valdez 02:54 GMT November 18, 2004". Especially the last part, starting with "Stockholm", deserves to be read and understood by a wider audience. ;^)

Vereeniging Will 13:10 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, may I please ask Jay for your e-mail? Tks

melbourne farmacia 13:04 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
KL KL - Covered 80% of 5 & 8 week old positions today on second account fwiw...

Gen dk 13:03 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Livingston nh 13:03 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
The SGD has a chart similar to CAD and it is also coming off the bottom - But KRW (despite rate cut) and TWD (value of large USD reserves dropping) are still stronger against USD today // Cable and AUD have not matched their highs of earlier this year - a firehose stream of USD far in excess of trade flow pushing the EUR

The US is exporting inflation by injecting all this USD (through China) into the world - other countries have to eventually respond by weakening their currencies (or as AGuy pointed out last week stop taking worthless scrip)

The world's two biggest customers are not making things easy

Antwerp Tom 12:54 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
B747 Came back now, hope you're fine

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:54 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
stubbs// Tks amigo. Well, reloading Euros depends on this crazy €/$ chart of course keeping ¥ crosses as a guide. If Japan intercedes, hopefully softly so we don't have BIG surprises, I would consider 1.2800-1.2830 a good buy & if appears stable, will likely reload then. Am not going to be Mr. Pip Shooter in times like these..these ducks shoot back.

If chart bottoms @ 1.2950 for 2 days w/ diminishing volitility, tells me support is reached, time to reload there also. Only using 15% of cap on these "tight-ins" for 80-120 pip mini profits: risk in swing trades higher than usual several weeks-months possies. My 1.2420 won't be touched..just playing with "tight-in" longs from now to Xmas. Due to possible interventions, techicals & fundamentals temporarily useless..a couple of the Hong Kong posters, Qindex, Melborne farmacia & Shanghai bc (in alphabetical order only) are best resources in times like these..they have the contacts necessary to give solid advisories. GT amigos. Adivce: look to non $ ¥ crosses for more normal trading yet still subject to end of trend chop.

I see end of 2002 €/$ uptrend at 1.38..but if that's reached it won't be without a LOT of weird wicked suicidal chop. If you're into US equities ALREADY you might concentrate on those for a few months.

Tokyo IM 12:53 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
sorry misstake 104.19, I meant to say.

Tokyo IM 12:53 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
OK, here I go again lack of patiance out from USD/JPY 10+ @ 119

Dallas GEP 12:43 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
OK usd/chf longs out @ small profit, AUSSIE shorts out @ +20, stopped out on Euro shorts earlier, still have eur/gbp short (about BE now)

KL KL 12:42 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez, i admire you to hold so long ....would it not be better to tp. and re-enter possie on dips??...different style...mine is like piranahs...you are like whale

hk ab 12:42 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
jf//Any detection?

Tokyo IM 12:41 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Sounds like a lot of beer to me. I admire patiance you have. I would probably get of the possy by now. But if you have a clear view then I wish you a good luck.

BEIRUT MK 12:40 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
put stop on usdjpy long 104.02 at BE

KL KL 12:40 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
out at 18 +16....time to rethink..ok long at 22 out 29 +7....recovered -20 pip loss....wheee trading day again

gold coast martin 12:39 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 03:15 GMT November 17, 2004
FWIW...Not all of the [EUR/DLR]'s 1.3010 triggers would roll off today, according to option traders. Basically structures are placed at the 1.30's, and related stops are reported in good amount (around 1.3010/30/50,etc). On the other hand corporate offers are seen at the 1.30's. To the downside buy interests increase towards 1.2850 especially from longer term fund accounts and real money accounts. Short dated topside strikes like Dec 02 1.32's/1.33's are in vogue. Continue to watch 1.2940-30 resilience. Another 1.30 failure would also be not a good sign.The bottom line is,the 130-31 barrier issue will be resolved AFTER the G20 meeting on the weekend...The propabilities weigh on the downside as the funds realise that the USD currency devaluation that EU desires, is just not possible in view of the Asian necessary appetite for dollars...in hte meantime the 12950-85 range will exist with the crucial 12932 barrier as a leading indicator of a move to the downside ...first port of call is 12720 after 12932 is breached,,,,,,g/t

Above post still applies....g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:37 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
IM// Hi amigo! Gained 130 pips..only sold my smaller tight-in trade from 1.2900 for beer money. Still have 1.2420, that stays 'til Dec. I'm patient as a Chinese elder.

BTW I posted yesterday that 1.3065 would be the critical point but that I like to close a little before critical points (since my bank's FX office is only open til 1400 EST.) Not a bad shot, eh? :^)

Gen dk 12:36 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

manila stubbs 12:36 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 12:30 GMT November 18, 2004

glad i listened to you. where do you plan to reload on eur$ again? TIA

GOES B747 12:35 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Tom, still on line?

Halifax CB 12:34 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM - agreed; it's also just clearing positions before the data releases.....

KL KL 12:34 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
out at 1.8432 -4 SAR and short here....haiya forgot to check gold

Tokyo IM 12:32 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 12:30 GMT November 18, 2004// Very good decision IMHO. How many pips did you gain , 600+ ?

KL KL 12:30 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
sheeze in again at long gbpusd 1.8536

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:30 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Glad I sold my €s @ 1.3030 yesterday.


♠ Thursday's Calendar
Nov 18 All times GMT es=estimate pr=previous ♠

Bulls, Bears, Japanese Zeros = the 3 FX entities.
Economic news + or - has not powered the market lately.
Mouse over for comment.

Left to go in today's Pearl Harbor Forex:
USD Snow Press Conf Warsaw W/New EU Members 12:30
CAD Int'l Securities Transactions SEP 13:30 es=C$1.0 pr=C$0.9
USD G'span speaks Frankfurt @ European Banking Conf 13:30
USD Initial Jobless NOV 13 13:30 es=330k pr=333k
USD Continuing Claims NOV 6 13:30 pr=2813k
USD Leading Indicators OCT 15:00 es=-0.1% pr=-0.1%
USD Philadelphia Fed. NOV 17:00 es=23.5 pr=28.5
NZD Visitor Arrivals OCT 21:45 pr=0.9%
AUD US Conf Board Australia Ldng Index 23:00
Happy Trails



BEIRUT MK 12:28 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
to be in safe side:
put stop on eurusd short from 1.3046 at BE
put stop on usdcad long from 1.2011 at BE

Tokyo IM 12:28 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
This does not look like BOJ yet. I think it is more of a people being scared of it and bailing out.

BEIRUT MK 12:26 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
gbpusd has broke 1.8615 two times but no follow through..!

BEIRUT MK 12:24 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
gbpusd is in dangerous level at 1.8555 ,
dont touch it in the long side

Gen dk 12:23 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Halifax CB 12:20 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
London paul - this stuff happens all the time on $CAD. I'm taking it as a signal that $CAD is ready to dive again, but my sl's are way out there. Keep an eye on the EURUSD, USDCAD seems to be running a bit a head of it and a turnaround in the USDCAD uptrend may indicate a good buy opp in the EURUSD. But if the EURUSD shows significant break of the long term rising support (right now around 1.299), it's a whole nuther ball game....

KL KL 12:17 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
ok long gbpusd 1.8561

Antwerp Tom 12:16 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
B747 11:O5 GMT I am now

gold coast martin 12:12 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM 12:07 GMT November 18, 2004
lol.....sake-sake would be better.....lol

Tokyo IM 12:07 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
LondonJoe 12:06 GMT November 18, 2004 // I wish I could join them to snoop some info ... and enjoy the sake with shabu-shabu.

BEIRUT MK 12:07 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
will short gbpusd on a break of 1.8510 target 1.84

LondonJoe 12:06 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
BOJ boys would be enjoying their 2nd bottle of sake in Shinjuku karaoke bars right now?.. and getting ready for their no pan shabu-shabu?.

Tokyo IM 12:03 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
sounds like BOJ boys are at watch.

BEIRUT MK 12:00 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
usdcad record a short term low
long usdcad at 1.2011 target 1.2150 stop 1.1860

Lisboa Pedro 12:00 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
valdez, es verdad (it's true) .... that's why I say ECB will soon bre renamed as BOJECB ... with a dog (Trichet) yelling and screaming out every 15 pip increase and a bulldog (Germany's finance minister) biting the press rooms with more interventionism .... ridiculous ... if they were to really intervene .. we should see the price action, not only the fu---ing words ..

Gen dk 11:59 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

shanghai bc 11:58 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   

NT 06;0 -- Good evening..Barring BOJ intervention,the market may try to push Eur/Jpy downwards..But I happen to believe BOJ folks will put up a good winning fight in 100-103 this year too.. If that happens,Eur/Jpy may be well supported in 133-139 region..If BOJ fails in their attempt,Eur/Jpy collapse is a good possibility with a relief on Eur/Usd front as well..Good trades.

london paul 11:57 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
whats happening with S/Canada?

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:55 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Of course, from now on, every 15 pip spike will be "intervention" Intervention invention. LOL Pearl Forex.

Gen dk 11:52 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

berlin otto 11:47 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi, guys and girls
I told you yesterday
that the right decision is:
sell gbpusd at 1,8572
target 1,8500
I am sorry, the real target was 1,8520-25
yesterday max +50 pips

And today I recommend you

buy eurusd at 1,3045
target 1,3080

Be patient!

and

buy gbpusd at 1,8585
target 1,8630

Be patient!

I wish all of you have a nice day.

Halifax CB 11:24 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Fisrt thing I saw this a.m. when I came in was a big spike on USDCAD, that's not confirmed on anything else as a turnaround. A shoot first sort of situation, which is pretty dumb, usuallly...Anyway, I sold it.....sl's + 40p...CAD's sideways movement has now gone on too long for my taste :). EURUSD is still trading at ~50p above the resistance (except for a minor jump); USDJPY seems to have established a center around 104 for now, so we might be looking at retracement possibilities there. GL/GT

knoxville dan-k 11:14 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
MK what time frame?

BEIRUT MK 11:11 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
got stopped out on gbpusd at 1.8640

still hold long usdjpy avg 104.02 target 107

long gbpjpy at 193.20 target 196 stop 191

short eurusd 1.3046 target 1.28 stop 1.33

Moscow Vasya 11:11 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
not highest jpy i mean

Moscow Vasya 11:10 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
slm - not very good advice 4 usd/jpy - cuz jpy itself is not on the lowest edge (see eur/jpy 4 example), and there's still no signals to buy usd.

GOES B747 11:05 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Tom Antwerp, are you online?

slv sam 11:03 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Jim/
I have all my money on $/cad...but I am thinking today to liquidate with small profit and reinvest as my own advice!GT

slv sam 09:37 GMT November 9, 2004
closed my sold $/y position with good profits.
All capital plus profits are used and BOUGHT US$/CAD at 1.1930 looking for 1.27 and of course i am ready to wait weeks if not months to collect my profits NO S/L unless margin disappear at around 1.10!!GT

Bruxville Jim 10:58 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
slv sam// please don't tell us you have no stops for this one... or is it a real-money (1:1 leverage) deal?

prague jv 10:58 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy short term divergance on sistem , possible break of 135.30 level for 134.80 target with revers for long positon around there .

slv sam 10:54 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   

Gold advice for lucky traders:

Buy $/Y now at 104.05 for at least 107.
$/y low is in place for sometime imho.GT

Gen dk 10:51 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

gold coast martin 10:49 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 10:44 GMT November 18, 2004
Yes Jim....Gold Coast,Siberia....best tourist attraction here is the old battery factory....and the salt mines....lol

Tobolsk JeanTr 10:45 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 10:36 GMT November 18, 2004

very very good prikol! :)

Bruxville Jim 10:44 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
martin// Is Gold Coast actually in Russia?
LOL

gold coast martin 10:36 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Vasya 10:30 GMT November 18, 2004
skagi cvoemu drugu, chto na eto ctranichke net russkix nevect. Eto financovay ctranichka i budet namnogo deshevli ecli on poidet na "web" russkix devushek-nevect.LoL

Moscow Vasya 10:30 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
spyke - pishi po-angliski ato vyklinut is foruma nahui

Plovdiv Gotin 10:29 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Vasya/Very well.

HK [email protected] 10:29 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Free translation of the text below.German to english


WASHINGTON (Dow Jones-VWD)--US-Präsident George W. Bush will penetrate(press???) according to a leading government representative in the standing APEC-summit on a faster release of the Yuan. Bush directly would request the Chinese president of the state Hu Jintao in a bilateral meeting to transfer its plans to the loosening of the exchange rate volume vis-à-vis the dollar, said the speaker.

Bush and Hu had arranged the development of a team in the meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in the past year, busy should themselves that with this problematic nature. The deputy governor of the People's it bank of China (PBOC), Guo Shuqiun, had explained recently, would have China no timetable for the releases of its country currency. (END) Dow Jones Newswires/18.11.2004/DJN/hab/gs

18.11.2004, 09:06




WASHINGTON (Dow Jones-VWD)--US-Präsident George W. Bush wird nach Angaben eines führenden Regierungsvertreters beim anstehenden APEC-Gipfel auf eine schnellere Freigabe des Yuan dringen. Bush werde den chinesischen Staatspräsidenten Hu Jintao bei einem bilateralen Treffen direkt auffordern, seine Pläne zur Lockerung des Wechselkursbandes gegenüber dem Dollar umzusetzen, sagte der Sprecher.

Bush und Hu hatten beim Treffen der Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) im vergangenen Jahr die Bildung einer Arbeitsgruppe vereinbart, die sich mit dieser Problematik beschäftigen sollte. Der stellvertretende Gouverneur der People's Bank of China (PBOC), Guo Shuqiun, hatte kürzlich erklärt, China habe keinen Zeitplan für die Freigabe seiner Landeswährung.
(ENDE) Dow Jones Newswires/18.11.2004/DJN/hab/gs

18.11.2004, 09:06


Moscow Spyke 10:28 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Vasya! Zdorovo bratan!!

Moscow Spyke 10:27 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
????!! ???????, ??????!!!

Gen dk 10:26 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

houston st 10:21 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   


GEP -- were you able to get some shorts off on eur$ in the .65/.85 range?...hopefully you did...gl/gt...

Moscow Vasya 10:20 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
What does someone think about selling usd/chf @1,1635 to the 1,1590 targets today?

HK [email protected] 10:15 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Made few calcu. about gold.
My estimation is that after it has hit the projected target
445$/oz

It will begin it's way down. Target below 400$/oz
At that level the physical market will wake back alive and demand from manufacturers will commence.

Santo Domingo tht 10:14 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Nice EUR/JPY USD/JPY tandem moves today.

gold coast martin 10:07 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 09:53 GMT November 18, 2004
The Bruxville First National Broking Service,may be a good suggestion....guaranteed to send you broke....lol...
Just joking Jim.....good trades to you......

Santo Domingo tht 10:07 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Cable is setting itself up for Fridays dollar selling, a repeat of last Friday and two weeks ago.

Australia Bud 10:01 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
thanks for responses kk and Jim. kk, how is it that you are not censored with that url reference? Jim, can you direct me to somewhere we can talk?

hong kong nt 09:54 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
AB -- last batch of c9 finally give up, guess usd/chf 1.160-1.185 may work for next few days...

Bruxville Jim 09:53 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Bud// Use 'Help Forum' and type company names with spaces b/ween letters. Never use offshore firms for trading. GL

Gen dk 09:49 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Australia Bud 09:43 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
KL, thanks for responding. I'm surprised at the censorship here. They even censor their own name. Also the system seems very slow and kluggy. I am feeling cautious about putting any money with them for a number of reasons. I wouldn't be surprised if I'm kicked out of the forum.. I see discussion of brokers is also verboten..oh well..live and die..how about the platform? I couldn't download it when I tried. Any comments?

GA TJ 09:43 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 09:38 GMT November 18, 2004

Divergence on the Stoch 30 min and 1 hour. Will watch it for a little while.

KL KL 09:42 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
moscow vasya, hard to say, my madness methodology is always lock in the 1 pip gain like a hawk and see it run until I get 10 pip...or more depending on momentum. Right now short term momentum is down so I wait until it turns up and let it run to my sl if that is how the market wants it

Los Angeles ss 09:38 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Thoughts on EUROUSD for this session?

hk ab 09:37 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
another wonder with this BOJ gun is if BOJ will play firing with ECB.....

GA TJ 09:36 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
chicago joe 09:03 GMT November 18, 2004
sam maybe it's bye bye time for the cad at least in the short term.

You may be right but have you noticed the HS Pattern showing up on the 30 min and 1 hour. Incomplete at this point but forming nicely. I will stay out of this pair until it is proven or rejected. If proven it may be an early warning for the greenback.

KL KL 09:36 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Australia bud, what is the issues?

moscow vasya 09:36 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
KL - what's your target?

Australia bud 09:32 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
anyone here using censored for cfds?

KL KL 09:32 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
in long gbp at 1.8577

hk ab 09:28 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
nt//I am dying for that but I am censored busy at the moment with the office work.

hong kong nt 09:26 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
AB -- shall we invite Q to have a local gathering?

London. 09:26 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
BERLIN TV German Finance Minister Hans Eichel Thursday called the euro's appreciation a "brutal development" and said he hopes the U.S., Japan and Europe will find a joint position on foreign exchange rates. Eichel's comments on German ARD breakfast television came ahead of the euro hitting a fresh record high Thursday of $1.3074 and just one day before Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers meet in Berlin. "This is, as (European Central Bank President) Jean-Claude Trichet has said, a brutal development. And it will have to be discussed - as is appropriate for exchange rate issues - behind closed doors," Eichel said. "And hopefully there will be a joint position for Japan, the U.S. and Europe."
The Group of 20, a forum that includes leading industrial countries and the largest emerging-market economies, will meet from Friday to SundayEichel Hopes For US, Japan, EU Euro Position TV
Eichel comments indicate that the euro's strength, which several European leaders have said is threatening the bloc's fragile, export-driven economic recovery, will play a prominent role at the meeting.

PAR 09:26 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
As usual looking for better than expected UK retail sales. +0.9M:M, +7% Y/Y.

prague jv 09:20 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
sometimes corrections can be consolidations . It is your call how you use it or loosit .

KL KL 09:17 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
long again gbpusd at 1.8594 sl 7 below

London. 09:16 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Lisboa Pedro this is a huge problem , when the USD was breaking new highs you couldnt find a Bear on CNBC squawkbox in NY infact had to turn the programe off because it used to be so much "in your face" with all the hipe and Bartorelli (the Mouths) whining voice.

hk ab 09:11 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
sam//somehow, if the line is really 103.60, I think BOJ will give us some new game/style at this operation.

In the past, we have 100-200 pips gun shot. The tactic is too old and they need some refreshment.

Lisboa Pedro 09:09 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
London. 09:01 GMT November 18, 2004 ... childish US mentaility (when things go up BUY BUY BUY or you'll be the last in the queue!!! ... or when things go down SELL SELL SELL this is going to censored!!! .... they are just like kids (US people, TV's...), paying attention to little things and crying for them and forgetting the real ones), affects more people than we can think .... and so TV's shows are they way they are

slv sam 09:08 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
chicago joe 09:03 GMT /
may be bye bye! but why?
BOJ start of intervention IS 103.60/70??...according to BC we must mark this line!! but was it intervention?GT

Lisboa Pedro 09:06 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
London. 09:01 GMT November 18, 2004 ... absolutely agree .. have always thought the same .... this just show how vulnerable the people that watch these programs is.

Lisboa Pedro 09:04 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Syd 08:56 GMT November 18, 2004 ... when haven't they warned about those moves? LOL. ... no effect for the time being, they've lost all credibility ... they have more or less the same credibility as Trcihet's ... for me it is not a matter of talking... it is a matter of price action .. reasons for that price action will always satisfy THE LOOSERS. (everything has an explanation... for whoever (that has lost money) that needs one)

chicago joe 09:03 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
sam maybe it's bye bye time for the cad at least in the short term.

KL KL 09:03 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd 1.8611....linger long enough there...phew +26.

London. 09:01 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
have you ever noticed on the tv programes, CNBC Bloomberg,
in a Dollar Bull enviroment you dont see dollar bears being interviewed , yet in a market like it is at present , every analyst they interview is a bear.

chicago joe 09:01 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
hmmm euro's having some serious troubles with 3070

slv sam 09:01 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
anyone can explain why cad is showing weakness in the last few days?GT

Rio de Janeiro PH 09:00 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
the USD has to go down even further than where it is right now

Syd 08:56 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
MOF"S Hosokawa Warns On Recent FX Moves

QC MW 08:55 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
thanks everyone

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 08:53 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
1.3150 1.3151

1.3100 1.3101
1.3069 1.3069
1.3062 1.3062

EUR
1.3012 1.3018
1.3000 1.3001

1.2938 1.2938
1.2931 1.2931
1.2900 1.2901
1.2850 1.2851

LDN SAM 08:51 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Talks German bank is a size buer in EUR/JPY?? Anymore precisions?

Rio de Janeiro PH 08:50 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
moscow go to forexnews.com...in the column of Mike Ellis on USD/SF

moscow vasya 08:47 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
no wonder if usd will reach chf @ 1:1 in near future

Rio de Janeiro PH 08:41 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
QC MW I am looking at futures... the DEC. low GBP is 1.854 and March GBP 1.8439

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 08:40 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
R4 1.8744 1.8725
R3 1.8687 1.8677
R2 1.8651 1.8647
R1 1.8643 1.8640

GBPUSD
1.8578 1.8581
1.8572 1.8562

S1 1.8500 1.8498
S2 1.8492 1.8488
S3 1.8457 1.8447
S4 1.8399 1.8380

Vereeniging wil 08:40 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
I have a low of 1.8576

KL KL 08:38 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
QC MW, i had low bid 1.8578....add whatever your broker spread on offer

QC MW 08:34 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
guys, what is the LOW for gbp/usd for this hour in your platform?

Rio de Janeiro PH 08:30 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
my target range for the Dollar is anywhere 1.35-1.38 in relations to the Euro

Syd 08:29 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Mizuho Corporate Bank's Nicole Elliott says USD is now oversold USD/JPY is moving toward the year's low of 103.40 and is beginning to spiral out of control. She looks for 103.40 to hold Thu, although break here and then below 103.00 will targets 102.65 and Nov 2001 low of 101.25.

Rio de Janeiro PH 08:29 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
The Fed's role is not to control the exchange rate but inflation. The US has never had a strong Dollar policy and in order to bring down the current account deficit the Dollar has to go down even further.

madrid val 08:28 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Athens, if you are arround, would you have a view in EURUSD? TIA

hk ab 08:25 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
would not be surprised the first gun is now around watch 17:30 CMT and 09:00 NYT.

hk ab 08:23 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
bc//you mentioned that China will not allow the USD to collapse as long as its reserve is pegged with USD. Will it be possible for Chinese to "remind" FED on the danger of the current game?

Someone posted a gd point that, we have the spect VS the CBs now at all fronts.

Rio de Janeiro PH 08:16 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
hi KL gm

KL KL 08:10 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
ouch got taken...good sl auto working ...long 1.8585 sl 7 below again

moscow vasya 08:05 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
still don't see any signal now to buy usd

KL KL 08:03 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd 1.8590 +27 is good. SAR and long here sl 7 below

manila stubbs 07:51 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
$cad forming a short term inverted head and shoulders on the hourlies

KL KL 07:49 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
trying short gbpusd 1.8617 sl 7 above

KL KL 07:40 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
ok small scalp of 2 pip from gbpusd long ...maybe stick to sell motto??

LA Fxnew 07:38 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
short cable now ...
target 8560

NZD sheep man 07:37 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
New high for me..Babababa sheep

KL KL 07:34 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
ok awake now for quick scalp long gbpusd at 1.8611....

prague jv 07:31 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
another reason , which in my op. will hold eur/usd at current levels is combination of eur/gbp and gbp/usd . euro gained 0.70 and gbp 1.8600 . Even if euro will not continue up , there is downside limited , till those levels holds.
I personaly did not expect eur/usd above 1.3000 couple days back . gues i just changet my mind .

Hong Kong Qindex 07:17 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Syd 07:03 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
BOJ Fukui: Heard Short-Term Speculation Behind FX Moves

tk jf 07:01 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
yes its an interesting time for the market - im not short yet in eurusd - just waiting for some reinforcement that it is right position - I dont see it just yet tho - $yen i saw yen funds hedge at 90-00 since end of nyk yesterday so we need to overcome the daily high to have any upside in that today- gt -

prague jv 06:56 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
jf/ the trend down is still strong on eur/jpy and if we do price projection and take the last 10 days as a hed&shoulder formation , the is still scope to get close to 134.30 aprox.
thanks jf for reminder . gl

gold coast martin 06:55 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
tk jf 06:48 GMT November 18, 2004
You brought up a very valid point....The market is becoming very much one sided to the point where the only players on the opposite direction are the CBs....repecussions of this scenario are obvious....g/t

tk jf 06:48 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
jv im quite bearish eurusd as well - i was looking for some movement higher to complete the top - as we are seeing - but in looking at usdyen now regardless of the eurusd movement - soon the only buyer for usdyen wud be the mof so that cud give euryen a nasty move - that was my thinking anyway

prague jv 06:44 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
jf are you reffering to eur/usd?? or eur/jpy

tk jf 06:43 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
euryen i was referring 2

tk jf 06:41 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
jv i was thinking the opposite - maybe after the squeeze to the top-it has the energy to break lower - we shall see

pr jv 06:35 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
low = slow

prague jv 06:35 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy very close to its mid term bottom here imho 136.80 on cards and might help to low down usd/jpy fall.

prague jv 06:29 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
gbp might to start playing cutch up.

Tokyo IM 06:27 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
So much for 1.3050 ... walked through in 5 sec

gold coast martin 06:07 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
..RBA sold net A$277m Australian dollars on the spot FX mkt in Oct vs a net A$89m end Sept. Outstanding FX commitments amounted to A$20.457bn vs A$17.236bn end Sept, whilst official assets amounted to A$44.708bn and FX holdings A$40.769bn...At current leves of the aud(77-78] the RBA increases its sales of aussie reserves..why? not to balance its reserves but to keep the export market on side....so expect RBA to increase its aussie sales at the 77-78 levels....g/t

hong kong nt 06:00 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
BC -- do you think trading range of 135-140 may work for EUR/JPY in coming weeks? many good trades to you..

Sydney 05:57 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
China's One-Year Deposit Rate For Yuan Is 2.25%

Hong Kong Qindex 05:38 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : the following is still a good reference :-


Melbourne Qindex 00:37 GMT October 31, 2004
USD/JPY : The market is pulling towards the key quantized level of my Quarterly Cycle at 103.95. The current expected trading ranges are as follow :-


Curve A : 99.33* - 103.95 - 108.58*


Curve B : 96.55* - 100.25 - 103.95* - 107.65 - 111.35*


Curve C : 97.79 - 100.87* - 103.95 - 107.04*

melbourne farmacia 05:17 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss - Suspect more upside based on the number of Calls purchased recently. That said, you would need to make that decision at the time… based on market flow.. ie stop hunt spike or follow thru buying etc.. GT

Los Angeles ss 05:01 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
farmacia -- so do you see a sell off in the short term on EUR if it approaches the .3060 level?

melbourne farmacia 04:56 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez -
This Euro ( DEM ) chart also reveals a significant barrier on approaching this 1.3060 level… Based on parallel linear support, now resistance. Short/ Med term trends can turn on double tops / bottoms …. ( within 200pips of pervious highs/lows ). GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:25 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Signing off..chart still holding same position at where I closed this AM. On that 10 year fxtrek USD/CHF chart I advised using as a reverse EUR/USD model, try a SMA400 to smooth it out and make the sine wave easier to see. Remember, 500 pips drop from present price can happen based on previous range dip back in the 90s.

shanghai bc 04:19 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   

VALDEZ 02:02 -- BOJ in general buys US T-Bond on behalf of MOF..Last year ,they have spent some 280 billion and I would not be surprised if they spend at least similar amount again,if needed..This is an "export or die"economy..That all adds up to their forex reserves mountain too..It will soon exceed 1 trillon Dollar compared to their private savings of some 13 trillion Dollars..I am sure they will ask China to join in quietly as well at some stage under the agreement..Yen problem is Asian problem too..Snow will have nothing to worry about the Dollar collapse believing "it is my Dollar but it is your problem, not mine."..

KL KL 04:18 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, my sources say quite a few Financial Inst. are aggresively writing some a little higher just in case. Since yesterday was well defended they are now tempting them something higher in the hope the losers can get back their money. Then again this is all talk. Problem with currency is no one knows who has what out there. Just their hedging against something. At this levels which is close to many currency all time, it would be silly for bulls or bears to be overly aggresive. As such I still prefer to short you know who !!

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:14 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Although €/$ is now "out of range" and into the clear resistanceless blue, let's face it, the € is a new currency...the 10 year chart is morphed or synthesized..so we can't give it a fair shot at saying "out of range" although technically it is. But the USD is the entity we're all watching.

So let's be fair & check USD/CHF's 10 year chart to track USD. See, on that pair USD is NOT out of range, range being 4/19/95 1.110 (it appears on my fxtrek 10 yr chart for that pair). If we are to match that range now to complete the cycle (as I feel it will), USD/CHF would have to dip 500 pips more to 1.1100ish. Use that chart as a model of things to come for USD both short term and even repeating the cycle the next 10 years barring any outside variables of course. Good model.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:13 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Syd 03:56 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
4cast Fx Euro/USD Reports of ESCB sales. Stops anothr run at Highs.

Euro activity , going into the European close, tended to be on the bid side in light volume until newswires carried stories that FX dealers have seen at least two ESCBs selling Euro.USD during the session. The late European Session bids disappeared on the report and prices fell from around 1.3040 to 1.3020.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:40 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

bandung mbonky 03:39 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
agree w/ mr. valdez there will be the blue sky for euro limit. not just euro chf also have earth for her support.
we cant hope too much for boj to intervene, because today has different situation compared 4Q 2003 n 1Q 2004. it will be good if ecb and boj give sign to intv at the same time regardless snow n his companion (hopefully...)

toronto Dr Unken Kat 03:38 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
U.S. names trying to push USD/JPY lower, but pair holding slightly above overnight low of 103.81 as some speculators covering shorts to book gains, says Tokyo dealer; but break below there "looks like a matter of time" as "the mood is just so bearish on the dollar ... foreigners - especially those U.S. names - are selling it en masse." Support pegged to 103.40 (this year's low), resistance to 104.30; last at 103.93. EUR/USD penned in 1.3010-1.3060 for rest of Asian time.

San Diego DC 03:38 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/$
I hope the people playing EUR shorts are intraday players.

I just thought I would share an easy way to figure the direction for a given day is to look at the chart at the time of close for EUR futures and /or NY close. I look at both. I use a tick chart (270 tick, nothing magical about this #, just a personal preference) to look at it, but instead you can also use a 1 min, 3min, and 10 min chart to see at the closing time if the last signal you had was a buy or a sell signal. Buy and sell signals I have are purely with technical indicators (BB, envelopes, donchian channels, MAs, MACD). That last signal before the close will be (8-9)/10 times good until the next day's close. If you don't get any new signals then it is continuation of the direction you had before. Many times this is much more profitable than day trading. You can use this exclusively to be consistently profitable or combine with any day trades you have.

Dallas GEP 03:36 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
KL that KO option at 1.3050 is STILL there according to my sources. Do you concurr on that????

GA TJ 03:34 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
USDCAD might give a clue. Looks like it might make a little run to the topsode.

KL KL 03:33 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Just pop in to have a look and decided this Asian session is a Boo. Range are too small. So getting some shut eyes for action in 6 hours time the Lon-NY express. I will continue to long jpyusd below 103.90 and short gbpusd above 1.8610 and euro above 1.3035. Looks like ko option yesterday for eurousd at 130.50 well defended. Today there is one at 130.70 not sure how true...gee I am not a brave buyer at these levels...so wait and gl gt

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:32 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
toronto Dr Unken Kat 03:13 GMT November 18, 2004//When USD goes down in value naturally gold will "seem" go up in comarison to the USD but not so much in comparision to CHF or other metals. It's USD drop that "ups" gold in the USA dollar based zone. Gold's intrinsic value of a safe house adds to the value somewhat, especially when some CBs shead USD, they're looking for other safehouses. Gold being one. The Islamic Gold Dinar is in the news...

See the latest collection of gold links ICT ML and I put together on the Help Forum...posting in 10 minutes.

Dallas GEP 03:30 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
OK eur/chf, and usd/chf pipping up affecting to a degree eur/usd (pipping down slightly)

toronto Dr Unken Kat 03:22 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Eurodollar futures on SGX flat to lower, mostly reflecting very light profit-taking, say dealers; but near-term outlook remains firm after last night's remarks from Fed Governor Pianalto that high oil prices haven't had big inflationary effects and U.S. October CPI showed modest rise vs unexpectedly high October PPI. December '04

Dallas GEP 03:18 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
OK 2 things Dan either CLOSE HERE or put stop at BE and TP @ 103.65,

Los Angeles ss 03:16 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Thanks all for your thoughts on EURO. Hopefully in the next couple of hours it will hit my -20pips and I'll be ready for the next trade!

tk jf 03:16 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
in audusd we saw more of what we were looking for a surge on news of free trade agreement that means very little - i treat that high as more important than the eurusd high- eur needs a sharper move to mean anything -this may just be a pause before that comes

toronto Dr Unken Kat 03:13 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 03:03
but the real problem is gold , its just climbing higher
probably 450 target

Quebec Swap 03:13 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Usd stuck in this range. I'm for a short though.

knoxville dan-k 03:13 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
yea i agree Dallas, im just tired

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:12 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 02:49 GMT November 18, 2004// The chart is taking a breather as so often happens after a disaster some aren't prepared for. Evidently a lot of people were caught with their pants down today (shorting a longing chart of course). You can also measure failures by the tone of post on the forum..the nastier they get the more got hurt.

€/$ going to 1.40? I think to 1.38 by my model. See a good read cut/paste from a masonfx.com newsletter I get on USD overall I just posted on Help Forum. I say again, a 1.50 USD isn't a collapse and would be temporary only to clear up the trade deficit, then rebound into normal range.

Get this...the EUR/USD as of today, now, has no resistance. Why? There is no precident for 1.30. This is the first and ALL TIME HIGH, you're watching it unfold. When we've broken out of AN ALL TIME HIGH then baby we're in new sky blue territory and there is no history precident to resist further up movement of the chart. Theories, math, gizmos etc. are worthless at this point as of today. With me here, Merv? The only resistance would be BOJ...and for how long could they synthetically fudge the chart? Would they really want to? They already own tons of USD paper & spot...maybe a Yendollar would be the solution? LOL Eurodollar, eat your heart out.

knoxville dan-k 03:12 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
well out of here for now everyone good luck and good trades, stops at 104 and buy back at 103.54 catch u later Dallas

Dallas GEP 03:11 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Dan don't count on too many more down pips IMO 3-4 MAX fir now

knoxville dan-k 03:06 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
usdjpy few more pips down please

Dallas GEP 03:06 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
All yen pairs shorting what is helping EUR/USD from longing much are (eur/jpy shorts)

Los Angeles ss 03:03 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
KAT -- thanks, that is what I am reading also. Like to get out of this soon so I can trade some cable.

Los Angeles ss 03:02 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
CB -- great idea!! that's been my luck recently.

toronto Dr Unken Kat 03:02 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 02:49 GMT November 18, 2004
I'd pay good money for EURUSD to drop 20 points

what kind of monia are we talking?

well on 4hr , hit the upper BB + the the stochs are Maxed up and about to reverse
on daily macd flat
on 1 hr studies "overbought" but still heavy
should be able to get ur money back in euro session, but im afraid also euro might hit 3060-80

Dallas GEP 02:58 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Let me suggest that a usd/jpy LONG @ 103.90 with @ 103.67 stop could very well work short term. This is against trend of course and if euro breaks up all bets are off. remeber also to watch eur/jpy shorts

bandung-indonesia mbonky 02:58 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
i had info there were large number of option positions that hold eur under 1.3, and those option positions were expired yesterday. so i think this what made eur jump his resist. anyone have any idea or something????

Halifax CB 02:57 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
ss - that's really simple to deal with. Just put all your money into a long position, with no stops below. Then it'll drop like a stone...

Hong Kong Qindex 02:52 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Los Angeles ss 02:49 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
I'd pay good money for EURUSD to drop 20 points to clear this sell possie I have. Anyone with any thoughts?

knoxville dan-k 02:47 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
well right now instead of going bark bark, i feel like gerrrrrrrrrrrr

knoxville dan-k 02:46 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
i wish that ccy's had open book to look at orders on like stock market has

knoxville dan-k 02:42 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
lol, that reminds me of what my laywer once told me, dont worry about the guy around the corner with the gun, its the one in front of you with the knife!! to worry about now

Dallas GEP 02:42 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Dan, when and IF tonight the usd/jpy gives up the 103.80/85 level THEN that will be when the other DOGS will start their barking.

toronto Dr Unken Kat 02:42 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Japan MOF won`t act to stem USD/JPY fall just yet as it`s historically been "very unwilling to intervene ahead of international gatherings" such as G20 meeting this weekend, says Morgan Stanley; "while we may see intervention between the 102 to 103 yen levels, we believe the key level that the MOF is looking to protect is 100." Pair last 104.0

Dallas GEP 02:40 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Well DAN, you do they same thing when you come upon a pack of wild dogs, you watch the ones that are showing their teeth FIRST because they can hurt you quicker. The others don't matter for the time being. The CROSSES are the dogs with the teeth BTW, In asia the most important dogs are the JPY crosses.

Halifax CB 02:38 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
LOL Valdez - sorry; I think I have overnight rates burned into my brain from back then....

knoxville dan-k 02:36 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
well Dallas maby its given up on the 104

Syd 02:36 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
There's an element of speculative activity to the recent dollar plunge against the yen, with some speculative money appearing to shift into the currency market from the crude oil market, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary said Thursday.
Hiroyuki Hosoda told a regular news conference that Tokyo would conduct currency intervention if there's too much speculative activity in the foreign exchange market, though the relevant officials would first study whether such action is necessary.

He also said the dollar is clearly weak if it's below Y104.00.

knoxville dan-k 02:30 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
yep, but what do u do when u see 20 moniters instead of the ten that u really have--lol

Boston mpd004 02:30 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Thanks guys, just wanted to put in my two pennies anyway before heading off to dreamlandFX.

Short gpb @ 8587. SL 8613, TGT 8558 (fibo)

Dallas GEP 02:29 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
That's the key word Dan, USUALLY. Crosses can affect that. The eur/chf for instance can affect usd/chf buy them both going in genrally in the same direction. The USD/CHF shorts today were caused in no small part by eur/chf shorts as well as eur/usd longs

knoxville dan-k 02:27 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
trouble is im getting tired, going to have to set up stops and walk away, tired of watching the oil based paint dry on the plastic

hk ab 02:27 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
someone mentioned about the nature of a l/t or m/t turn with a large swing.
An exception may be the famous dlr/jpy 135.30 in 2002.
However, most turns are found during NY session and that's v. true.

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:26 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 02:19 GMT November 18, 2004 // Tks for your reply. But if BOJ raises overnight rates then that would favor ¥ instead of devaluate it as Tokyo wants. Right?

goldcoast martin, if you're here, anything to say sir on my questions below?

knoxville dan-k 02:25 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
humm, but usually the eru/usd, and usd/jpy travel in opposite directions dont u think?

orlando jcr 02:22 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
short USD/JPY from 104.00
got out +7PIP...

Just needed a win for the day.
Been sitting just watching for too long.

Dallas GEP 02:22 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Well Dan, I think that short usd/jpy will work for you EVEN if thiis EURO 1.3050 doesn't break because even if Euro shorts back down it won't get below 1.3000-1.3010 IMO, I could easily see eur/jpy shorting pulling down eur/usd while usd/jpy is shorting at the same time.

Calabash TarHeel 02:22 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Boston mpd004 02:09 GMT November 18, 2004
Hello Boston
I agree with you, but you may take my word on this, as long as Jay maintains this forum, they are going to copy and paste not stop. My suggestion, just skip all of them, much easier to maintain a clear head.
gl,gt

Halifax CB 02:19 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Valdez - raising the overnight rate is one of the favourite tools. The best way to see it is to check out the history of events like the Asian Currency Crisis (via a google search). A good book to breeze through is "The Vandal's Crown" by Gregory Millman. A little dated but still a good read.

Rye, NY et 02:19 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Boston mpdoo4 01:46 GMT November 18, 2004
Pssst!... Boston, you're right...but don't say it too loudly on the Forum or you'll get flamed.
"Dow Theory:The oldest theory in technical analysis states that prices fully reflect all existing information. Knowledge available to participants (traders, analysts, portfolio managers, market strategists and investors) is already discounted in the price action. Movements caused by unpredictable events such as acts of god will be contained within the overall trend. Technical analysis aims at studying price action to draw conclusions on future moves."
Believe the prices paid.
BTW...fwiw....stopped @1.3027 on Euro shorts. Will by the next dip on the CHARTS!

prague jv 02:18 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy and usd/jpy going in tandem again and do share some of it jpy strenght , which was the main mover last session .
There was a very good opportunity to mess up charts , when usd/jpy was around 104.30/50 level and if intervention wud take place at a such time , it could provide some advantage for BOJ in future curbing jpy strenght . But nothing happened and it is possible to speculate that It is acceptable for them to keep range 105.20 / 103.00 for end of this year .

There is stil limited movement for eur/usd , but steady up is very possible tovards 1.3200 .
My medium term has not reach overbought level , nor divergance which wud flash some warning for steady advance .
eur/jpy can be very good tool to hold eur strenghtening and usd depresiation under control for fearfull authorities .

knoxville dan-k 02:15 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
well Dallas, im still babysitting usd/jpy short from 104.03 from 1:30ish today

Philadelphia Caba 02:14 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 02:13 GMT November 18, 2004
CABA, NOPE to tight for my platform ... 1.3059

Thanks Gep, I'll try one lot too.

Dallas GEP 02:13 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
CABA, NOPE to tight for my platform ... 1.3059

Philadelphia Caba 02:11 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 02:01 GMT November 18, 2004
Ok got a euro short order waiting at 1.3041 now to add to others if it is hit.

GEP, is your s/l on all shorts at 1.3050? Thanks.

Boston mpd004 02:09 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Orlando//thanks. I honestlly think that the posters believe in what they are posting. But, anyone can go to any finacial site and cut and paste someone else's idea's on what the economy is doing and take it for their own (I've seen it happen because I've read the same post) However, it's the bottom line on what the poster believes in because he's the poster that posted it. Now, I read every post, even though some of which I don't understand, (financial, economy) but it just seems to me that if someone is gonna post this kind of information, then they ought to derive some kind of opinion of which they have posted.

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:02 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
bc// When Japan intercedes then how would they,
1. by supporting the USD in purchasing US instruments &/or spot dollars or
2. by lowering ¥ by printing fiat money?
3. Or both?

I realize a CB purchasing USD instruments
1. effectively (at least now) lowers the value of ¥ at this time at least if they shed Euros, Au or CHF at the same time,
2. as well as supporting USD by creating demand.

Also, do you feel Japan has the resources to intervene for a long time, battling the printing presses in the US Treasury Dept if they desire to wage battle?

Do you anticipate an FX battle with US and Japan
TIA teacher.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:02 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dallas GEP 02:01 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Ok got a euro short order waiting at 1.3041 now to add to others if it is hit.

orlando jcr 01:58 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Boston,

I have sity cents in my pocket, but I had to count twice.
I'm with you... The market is crazy, and every bit of specific information helps.

EU peg 01:55 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
I am!

Antartica Sub Zoro (Zero) 01:53 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
EU ZORRO 01:03 GMT

His eminence has spoken!

Dallas GEP 01:52 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Antbody know the expiration date on this 1.3050 EUR/USD option and who exactly is holding it???????

Boston mpdoo4 01:46 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Lately. I've read so many worldwide economy reports from self appointed economists and actual earned economists and to tell you the truth, I have a hard time counting the change in my pocket. Could you please suggest to us/me what the bottom line of your sonopsis is of your post? Will the xxx/xxx go up or down in your opinion according to what you are reporting? Otherwise, in my opinion, all these numbers and statistics are useless to some of the traders here who have no idea what you are talking about, however are good traders otherwise. only my two pennies.

Halifax CB 01:46 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Re China - CBC (Canada's radio network) is running a series on China. I listened tonight (I usually avoid CBC broadcasts) and found the show rather interesting. It's available on this page in RealAudio. There's also some lightweight background which makes a good read.

HK [email protected] 01:38 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai BC .

Can you comment to what extent Yuan Rate change will affect the HKD?
So let us assume 5% change in the Yuan up to Feb. next year.
What will be the expected change in the HKD?

Syd 01:33 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Deutsche Bank says that speculation rife of a major eurozone hedge fund sought to unwind massive long German Bund/short U.S. Treasury position yesterday, cites rumor of $12 billion unwind taking place, with players who got whiff of move piling into trade, boosting Treasurys prices sharply last night; Singapore dealer says hedge fund may continue taking profit on position, which could lift Treasurys prices further in today's global session

London. 01:29 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai BC appreciate your view on my post below

London. 01:28 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
with markets said likely to continue pressing Asian FX up vs USD, due to a perception that Asian FX adjustment necessary Shanghai BC surely once this happens it will relieve the European and commodity currencies as they have already done their bit

Sydney 01:25 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Australia tight labor market could be impacting productivity
3Q average weekly earnings data show no excessive wage outcomes at aggregate level , the news as suggests Australia's ability to produce low inflation but it doesn't reveal unit labor costs

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 01:23 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
good trades everyone for next 24 hours.

TIA:-)

NY Szilard 01:20 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
This is no news...the chinese will widen the band, there is no question about it. PRICING SOURCES FOR YUAN NDFS, ANYONE?

HK [email protected] 01:15 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Stanchart China index shows yuan pressure at peak

SINGAPORE, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Revaluation pressure on the Chinese yuan is at an all-time high, a new index set up by Standard Chartered Bank shows.

The bank said the latest reading of the index, set up to measure the economic forces affecting the yuan, or renminbi, measured 114.3 in September.


The index was calibrated to 100 at January 1997.

During the past decade, when the yuan was managed within a tight band against the dollar, Standard Chartered's barometer stayed within key thresholds, suggesting no change in the yuan's exchange rate was needed.

The bank said the barometer had risen 4 percent in the last six months and broke the upper threshold in May 2004.

"This suggests that there is an overwhelming economic and financial case for a stronger yuan," Stanchart's economists said in a note.

China is under intense international pressure to revalue the yuan.

Businesses and policy makers in the United States and
Europe have said the current peg around 8.28 a dollar
undervalued the currency, giving Chinese exporters an unfair
trade advantage. Chinese authorities have said they are
willing to liberalise the yuan but in their own time, spurring
massive speculation on the likely policy change and its timing.

Other investment houses have their own indexes for China. CLSA launched a Purchasing Managers' Index for China in April.

Goldman Sachs has teamed up with China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center (CEMAC) to develop a CEMAC-Goldman Sachs Leading indicator for China. Goldman Sachs also has a Financial Conditions Index for China.

Another quiet a comprehensive article about Yuan situation, for those who did not come across it in:

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/106590/content.asp?menu=strategy&dia=17112004

Gen dk 01:15 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

NYC SK 01:15 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Where can I find closing prices for Yuan NDFs? Does anyone know?

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:07 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
bc, thanks for clarifying for me kind sir, I'm sure several hundred GV members are thankful as well.

Santo Domingo tht 01:05 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Yes I'm reading your post Valdez. Just found it funny you were asking a specific question highlighted 30 minutes earlier,with this particular quote taken into account.

"I guess some forum participants only check the forum once a month because some seem to never get your point about China and constantly ask about or even speculate when China will float etc. I suggest participants PARTICIPATE on a daily basis.

EU ZORRO 01:03 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi all...was good to see "old names" in the forum today...

...as all can see...no tops...

...EURO in good shape...No interventions near/medium term...

good night allllllll

LA Fxnew 01:00 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
hi everyone ..

gep and others:
any view for cable today?
Thanks

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:55 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Santo Domingo 00:34 GMT November 18, 2004//Thank you for your vigilence and willingness to help me read what I've already read below. I wanted some specifics from bc if he has the time and knows a bit more than he posted. Believe me, I anticipate your continued "help", Domingo, in the future, you're quite a zealous reader of my posts. Gracias. Que tengas buenas cambios.

shanghai bc 00:53 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   

VALDEZ 00:27 --Good morning..Thanks for your kind words..Japan's economic recovery mainly depends on export to China and USA..USD/RMB are falling against Yen towards 100 and this is unacceptable to them because their export will suffer and economy will relapse again..Expecting MOF/BOJ to come in again and again in 100-103 region with the aim of stabilizing Usd/Jpy in 105-110 region..They may just defend the region rather than chasing the market..If the past is any guide,easy money is in selling Usd/Jpy on the first 200+ pip- intervention spike each time till the tide turns for Dollar..On the other hand,ECB is likely to just keep talking while US Treasury is just watching for sometime..Good trades.

Syd 00:44 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Australian average weekly earnings +1.3% in 3Q vs 2Q, suggesting benign wages growth

orlando jcr 00:42 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
for those of that haven't been through a MOF intervention...
How does it affect other USD currencies.

Will a Yen intervention naturally bring down the Euro & Cable?
If so, will those currencies react wildly?

What currencies are safe to be trading in while we are in "wait and see" mode?

sydney surf 00:41 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
take it as a given usd/jpy will trade below 100, intervention will occur, choppy trading, spikes, jawboning are a coming. But thats when we have the most fun.... so bring it on!!

Sydney 00:38 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Japan bank trader say offers by Japan banks, real-demand players, chance of break below this year's low of 103.40 in Tokyo unless MOF intervenes. Once the dollar is below 103.40, it may fall sharply as there won't be any clear technical support below there until 100

Santo Domingo 00:34 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:57 GMT November 17, 2004

MOF/BOJ folks are not bluffing..They may become very active from now on..Anything below Usd/Jpy 100 will be unaceptable to them for the foresseable future ..And their tactics was to do the round of massive interventions starting from anywhere near 103 in the past while defending 100 line in the past..And they have never lost from the intervening lines in the medium-term in the past..Better mark their first line of intervention for reference too..Fwiw..

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:27 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:00 GMT November 17, 2004
I guess some forum participants only check the forum once a month because some seem to never get your point about China and constantly ask about or even speculate when China will float etc. I suggest participants PARTICIPATE on a daily basis.

I've got a question and I'm asking you because I consider you an excellent authority on Asian currencies. We've heard here on the forum that Japan is not expected to intervene for reasons that they need the money to rebuild after the weather damage. Also we've heard Japan won't intervene because they are now more tolerant. I dont know what to believe of those two theories yet both are "popular". Popularity doesn't necessarily mean it's correct either. DO YOU think Japan will intervene if USD drops and to what level do you predict they'll actually start intervening sir?
TIA, I can speak for all of us, we are much honored to read your posts.

Sydney 00:27 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
FinMin Tanigaki Reiterates Threat To Act On Rapid FX Moves

melbourne farmacia 00:22 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
ny amc - Usually hit market late Asian / early euro session...

SanFrancisco TG 00:19 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
BC, Andras, CB - Thank you for your input. Has added quite a bit to consider to the picture. I have been considering branching out a pinch from my intra-specific approach to holding one or two, and am focusing on Aud, Nzd, Eur/Gbp. In light of your comments, perhaps there is more likelyhood of holding something commodity currency related in tandem with shifting tides in oil etc.

Philadelphia Caba 00:09 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 00:07 GMT November 18, 2004
Thanks GEP

London. 00:09 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
UNITED NATIONS (AP)18 Nov --Russia is refusing to provide witnesses or information to the independent investigation into alleged corruption in the multibillion-dollar U.N. oil-for-food program in Iraq, an official close to the investigation said Wednesday.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Russian diplomats "dug in their heels" during a meeting in Moscow this week with members of the independent inquiry who are probing the corruption charges.A report by top U.S. arms inspector Charles Duelfer, released last month, alleged that Saddam issued secret vouchers for purchase of oil to an array of officials and political figures from various countries, especially Russia, France and China. That oil could then be resold at a profit.
Saddam allegedly issued the vouchers to curry favor among U.N. Security Council members.
At a news conference last month, Volcker said his investigators had received good cooperation from the U.S. and Iraqi governments, and a promise of cooperation from France.

But he said there had been "a little resistance here and there," citing the French bank BNP Paribas, where the oil-for-food program had its account, and the American accounting firm Ernst & Young which was hired by the Iraqi Board of Supreme Audit to review more than 20,000 files from Saddam's regime related to the oil-for-food program.

Sydney Ge11Ja 00:08 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
What will happen first time is market will move quickly and nastily, but as nothing has really changed players will fade the rally and we will move right back to where we started. As time goes on intervention becomes less successful and just gives market better levels to sell. In fact a lot fo the big hedge fund types actually leave orders to sell if MOF intervenes. It becomes very hard as it can be painful being long and painful being short, I find best way to trade it is through the crosses.

Dallas GEP 00:07 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Caba, I see that USD/CHF might test those lows again around 1.1607/8 but as long as EURO doesn't break 1.3050, should be fine. I like 1.1590 as a stop tho.

sydney surf 00:05 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
when you are short usd/jpy and it moves from 104.00 - 107.50 in less than a minute you will learn very quickly about intervention.

dc fxq 00:04 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
ny amc

You WILL know it WHEN you the spikes that occur.

Sometimes even a verbal "checking rates" is enough to do the trick.

Philadelphia Caba 00:01 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Open long usd/chf @ 1.1628, s/l 1.1599, tp open now..any comments? GEP, please?

ny amc 00:00 GMT November 18, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai..............to someone who is new and has never been involved when there was an intervention , how would you know it's intervention , price action or actual wording from BOJ etc... ?

 




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