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Forex Forum Archive for 11/19/2004

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nyc SA 23:02 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Just heard Cudlow on CNBC saying that the dollar is 15% undervalued.
How much more undervalued it has to be before buying ? Now ,does oversold lead to more oversold ? or is it now time to buy the USD against all majors for a 15% bounce ? I always have a problem timing shorts or longs , perhaps some of the most seasoned traders among us would care to comment , any views would be appreciated .

SanFrancisco TG 20:56 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
th - :), good weekend to you.

Ltn th 20:43 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TGspan. As you know from elsewhere, I admire many of you economic policies.

SanFrancisco TG 20:42 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Increased GDP by acquisition does not equate to Performing GDP. In fact, you can decrease performance through acquisition (as currently experienced in EU goals) where there is also the requirement of restricted freedom.

SanFrancisco TG 20:35 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
I have to say something I think is quite prudent to current conditions. The EU is busily "acquiring" countries". I used to be hands on involved with management of banking assets and I believe certain principles apply to both. You can "acquire" as many "non-performing assets" as you wish but you will only compound the lack of performance you put forth until you finally mature beyond the policies that strangle the freedom to perform by the talent and honest goals of individuals in your bank. A "Parent Firm" acquired "Blank Bank" for the purpose of "expansion of assets for Product growth" and the same backward ideals that drove FNB into bankruptcy drained the bottom line of the Parent inevitably.

The EU is a non performing asset placing blame on the US. Until the population wakes up, it remain such.

clonakilty glenn 20:30 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   

TG - thanks mate - been around here for over a year but I'm mainly a viewer. Have a good w/e and good luck for next week.

Calabash TarHeel 20:30 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
TG
I totally agree with the statement noted below.

Gspan and US don't care how much the EU whines and tries to blame the weak USD for their miscalculation that they could blame the US forever for EU economic failure

With the EU economy already taking on water, CPR is in the near future. Let the Euro climb, "The Higher They Fly"
Have a good weekend

Atlanta-South 20:23 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Calabash: http://trading-system-secrets.com/ts/amoshostetter.html. Good site, but probably everyone already aware of this advise. Just thought it might be of interest. GOOD WEEKEND TO ALL

SanFrancisco TG 20:21 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Glenn - have a good weekend yourself. I hope you show up a little more, seem like a good man :)

End of week analysis - spot gold falling under pressure end of day as "sniffed" due to exhaustion. $CAD and $CHF been sold hard 2 days. Euro under pressure to "perform" as I like to say. Buy USD and take em while you have em. Gspan and US don't care how much the EU whines and tries to blame the weak USD for their miscalculation that they could blame the US forever for EU economic failure (using Clinton to prop up the USD to help them temporarily to their advantage).

135 Euro. Play the fluctuations.

KL KL 20:20 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
ok in long eurjpy 134.13 sl 133.95

hk revdax 20:18 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 19:56//Read my 19:41 post.

Calabash TarHeel 20:16 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta-South 20:11 GMT November 19, 2004
Post it, if it's unwanted here it will be censored. IMO

knoxville dan-k 20:15 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
im going to work on houseboat but ill read your post in a little bit

knoxville dan-k 20:14 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, think about this one, what year was the CLOCK invented ?

like the one we use now? maby not gme time or est time just when and who were the first inventors known in history

JHB JW 20:12 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 19:33 GMT November 19, 2004
Weekend thought:
If you ever have the time read the book called " the fingerprints of the Gods", the kind of intervention yu rever to started long before the 20th cent. Yet very few composers todat can beat the classics.

Atlanta-South 20:11 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Help from some of U more in the know participants on this forum. Are We allowed to post websites that provide TRADING info. This particular site seems to offer only free info, not trying to sell the usual goods.

clonakilty glenn 20:08 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   

TG - bonkers! thanks for that......ever the entertainer - thanks for not taking offence at me poking a little fun on a friday afternoon - have a great w/e

Stockholm AGuy 20:07 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 19:41 GMT:

GEP, short answer: scientific and technological progress is an exponential process. Each generation of discoveries and inventions speeds up the rate of innovation leading to the next generation. As a corollary, Sornette et.al. have extrapolated the past centuries of human progress to a singularity going straight up, to infinity, around year 2050...

chicago joe 20:03 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Hmmm big movement on a late friday afternoon, that's not something you see every week.

SanFrancisco TG 20:01 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
clonakilty glenn 19:37 - Hats off to you, finally someone who has figured me out !

I've been criticized, condemned, achkowledged, and praised. I'm a man who smiles most of the time and conform my verbeage to the podium of the moment. Yet, with regard to my understanding of economic and geo-political condition (which is extensive and has swayed in opinion from the absolutes of one side to the other over 20 years) I have finally arrived at the truth.

Left is chaos. Left is malcontent. Left seeks explanation for the chaos created in conspiracy and "other-world" imagination. Right is conservative. Right is logical. Right can be just as destructive by overreacting in crushing the chaos of the left. Right has been abused by left at times in history by Left posing as Right and stirring chaos.

In the end, nature arrives at balance. When the time is right, I push the Right to be tolerant and achieve balance. These are not times that suit such a thought, as the Left is hard at work to create as much chaos as possible while hoping to appear rational.

As for trading, again I approach with balance. I do not buy the highs/sell the lows. I try my best to calculate when each has run out of conviction enough to stick. Profit can be made of chaos (chaos theory) but survival and tangible progress are achieved in harnessing rational market conditions.

Los Angeles ss 19:56 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Anyone with any thoughts on where cable will close today?

KL KL 19:55 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
GEP, any possie open?

chicago joe 19:50 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
wellington am how come?

chicago joe 19:48 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
the yen, cad, and aud always manage to stink up a good friday.

wellington am 19:44 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Morning all (well it is here). Time to load up US $s - pick your favourite currency pair, and call the travel agent.

Santo Domingo tht 19:43 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Market is still moving BTW, no strong close for cable, another failure to close above 1.86.

Dallas GEP 19:43 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Hellll...a forex trader is not a natrual occurrance EITHER!!! LOL

BTW ... CAD is VERY VERY unstable....directional pretty unpredictable BE CAREFUL trading it.!!!

OK SZ 19:41 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
you guys/gals need to go and get a drink or something. stop with all the nonsense, leave that stuff to the politicians. I am outta here..

Santo Domingo tht 19:41 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
The All Time Turkey.

hk revdax 19:41 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Actually Euro might peak out by the close of today as opposed to next Monday morning...if you guys are not careful.

Dallas GEP 19:41 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Well it just a thought .... I am not making ANY statements here . it is just food for thought, I don't really have an answer. ALL I am saying is that it DOESN'T Seem to be a natural occurrance to me. THAt is all

Santo Domingo tht 19:40 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
My favourite movie.. -Plan 9 from outer space-

HK REVDAX 19:39 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Talking about sticking to forex, the following is a time table for 'forex sticking'....

###Expect Euro/$ to peak out next Monday on a short term basis.
###If Nov 23 turned out to be a down day of Euro, then turn around to buy Euro on Nov 24.

clonakilty glenn 19:37 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   

TG - I thought you WERE the fringe mental element!! hahahaha - seriously I've seen your posts on the "other side" and they are reasoned and intelligent viewpoints whether or not I agree with the content. Yet, on the FF your posts are belligerent and redneck in tone. NOW - we should be told - are you actually a master of irony and are winding up the crowd with your Bush-Bunny view, or do you actually believe in what you're saying? If the latter, then that's at odds with your more erudite posts on the GVI-side!. Are there 2 TG's ???.

Will the real TG please stand up?

Halifax CB 19:37 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
GEP - you mean like aliens giving it to us? Could easily be; if they exist, they certainly know what we're like, and it's probably a good idea to help us create TV, Big Mac's, and the FF to keep us from advancing any further :)

NYC 19:36 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Gep stick to forex, you're making a fool of yourself.

Dallas GEP 19:33 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Weekend thought:

Well something kind of occurred to me the other day. It you look at ALL of recorded history PRIOR to the 20th century in terms of technological advancements and compare that to just the advancements in the 20 th century....how is it those 20th century developments could have occurred naturally without intervention from an OUTSIDE source of some sort???

HK REVDAX 19:31 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
In order to find out the future trend of US$, one has to realize the future trend of both the economic and political productivity of the US in the years to come.

As long as the political system in the US remains flexible in terms of being able to respond to changes, the dollar will always find its own level. As as long as that happens, the US economy will always re-dress itself.

The dollar, like anything, will go through a series of turning points.

SanFrancisco TG 19:28 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
hahaha, I seem to have upset the "fringe mental capacity".

Houston - You are actually still equating present USD weakness as a sign of US economic weakness? Oh my God.

Then I have the "UFO/Bush conspiracy" crowd chime in.

Followed up by the fringe saying Gspan is "warning" of economic detriment. Yet the Fed is forecasting a 3-4% GDP gain in 2005. Key word ... GAIN.

Makes you wonder if the string of 20 to 40 year economic US records seen in the last 4 years are a "UFO/Bush conspiracy" hahahaha.


LOL

knoxville dan-k 19:21 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
? how many people in 1960 would have to work to support 1 person on ss benifits

? how many people in 2004 would have to work to support 1 person on ss benifits

my dad worked for the ssa for 38years i know the answers do you?

knoxville dan-k 19:15 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
i apoligise sanfrancisco, but be aware of what is really going on, i know and my wife knows some people in high places and i onced asked a simple question about ufo's the answer was, and he could not tell me (fact to you would be stranger than fiction) as for people in power well --------------------------hum!

Van jv 19:14 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco----Greeny emhasized vulnerability----so Your
"The US is in ever increasing strong condition."
might read
The US is in ever increasingly strong vulneragle condition.



HOUSTON KENNY 19:07 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG take your propaganda somewhere else the facts are the facts , people are selling us assets . i hope you put ur money where you mouth is buying buying dollar. you can spin all you want the facts are the facts

KL KL 19:04 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
seems like some action still in this late trading....so I will be waiting around for some scalping

SanFrancisco TG 18:57 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Regarding the debt limit increase, doesn't it wreak of risk?. Yet I cant stop praising the US flexibility system that responds to economic conditions. I think we're ok, and I think the spending has been well placed in the effort to avoid unimaginable catastrophe. Politicos are one thing, the people who imagined Bush conspiracies for profit or political manipulation failed. The people running things are no fools and economic gains in the US since 911 are clear, as well as the very numerous events of terror on US soil in the last 3 years which included weapons of mass destruction that have been stopped cold, something so many of us are told are "not happening". The same people have been clamoring for a strong US dollar and claiming the 8.2% GDP was a mirage.

The US is in ever increasing strong condition.


NJ-USA 18:55 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Hello there,
I've been watching this forum for almost 3 months now .... I learn a lot and I thank you for that. I was wondering if you have any suggestions of what program should I use in order to start in FOREX. Currently I am using VisualTrading from censored-FOREX. Do you recommend any better? Thank you again

OK SZ 18:47 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Back in 1992 the $ was trading at a low of 78.43..long termwe will test that low again but not without some rallies which should start Monday in my opinion..have a good weekend all..

KL KL 18:45 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
g'day...awake and suprise to see the pop up now down and usdjpy that low. fwiw my limit buy at 102.90 got filled and hoping Japan BOJ Warlords calvary comes. apart from that my gbpusd short earlier got taken ... also usdchf long got filled at 115.80. DOW long also git filled at 10450. Wow did not expect a Nothing data day to be so bad for USD...oh I see Crude oil up almost $2...and gold $5 ...ah soo both in sync now

out usdjpy at 103.12 and chf 116.14 out DOW 10468...may all go lower later . Who knows bird in hand is better than none

limit buy again at 102.7 115.7. Looking to long eurjpy at 134 or a bit higher.

YVR TTT 18:45 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
teto

Cape Town 18:42 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Is this debt ceiling limit merely a gimmick? If the limit can be changed at will, why bother having it at all? Why not just scrap it completely...

SanFrancisco TG 18:42 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Bearing in mind the continuing anti-Americanism that has programmed its way into the minds of mental midgets, I think Gspan all but bashing US bonds fits into a very coherent agenda to weaken the dollar to "disinfect" the negative element that hurts Canadas economy and well being, Europes economy and well being, South Americas economy and well being, and the US economy and well being.

Once the "rebalancing" of the overheated US dollar that took place between 1994 and 2000 is complete, the detriment to the US economy will be largely repaired.

Comical how those "so concerned with the US economy" have been calling for an every increasing US currency.

HOUSTON KENNY 18:38 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites) on Friday signed into law a measure authorizing an $800 billion increase in the credit limit of the United States, the White House said.


AFP/File Photo



"The president signed the debt ceiling increase into law before he left for Chile," White House spokesman Trent Duffy said.


Bush left earlier on Friday for Santiago, Chile, where he will attend this weekend's Asia-Pacific summit. The Republican-dominated Congress gave its approval on Thursday to a measure to increase the debt limit to a new $8.184 trillion ceiling.


The Treasury Department (news

Chicago Irish 18:33 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Valdez.......By that logic anyone who goes abroad on vacation and has to exchange currencies is also an "FX trader"...Oh well different strokes.
Have a good weekend.

Atlanta-South 18:32 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez: Sorry for late response. Yes i do live near the Plains Hwy & near Pres FDR country getaway. I'm just south of the Metro area in the country, but near 3 major cities. Your location is better. Athens in 70-80, what a time to be in a college town. I too am a private trader that is starting to have some success @ this endeavor. I never tried the POSITION type trade until 6 months ago, always scalping & raiding. Still do some scalp & raid, but finding I rest better POSITION TRADING. It is ALWAYS GOOD to read your post, they are informative & show GREAT PATIENCE on your part. The last trade I spoke of earlier about cause me a lost, but I stay the course after reading your post on the level 1.3100 being possible before a reversal. There where several others who expressed the same, but you never wavered. Lets stay the course & see 1.3100 +. Pub time.

Spotforex NY 18:22 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
enjoy the weekend all!!!!

spot

Van jv 18:16 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan: Low $ hurts stocks/Dow 100/----low USD, low SM and BONDS----implies low capital inflow

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:12 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Irish//What's the spread in your local bank for cash?

It's between 2 and 5 pips as their profit/spread is the difference between the actual price & the next round number divisable evenly by 5, hence my opens & closes always end in either zero or five. Not bad actually but limits me severely timewise...but that's the way I've done it since '96. Going platform style to join the 21st century finally soon when my € CD matures shortly (longly) so I won't be called a "newbie" any more by certain pests (8 years FX yet a newbie..LOL) however not going to post raid/day trades rather swing & position trades as usual, not for any other reason than everyone else is posting raids, why yet another? Besides, when I raid I don't have time to post..too long of a wait on my banana connection for FF to go to post mode & back again.

Dallas GEP 18:12 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
One last note, there will probably be some BIDS on euro around 1.3000 so a LONGER might be able to squeeze 3o-40 pips LONG with a 20 pip stop. It is risky tho!!!

Dallas GEP 18:07 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
AS a good friend messengered me a while ago, GV reminds him of a FOOD FIGHT on fridays sometimes. I agree, It can be great fun and no one is going to REALLY get hurt here anyway (physically anyway)

sofia anmart-fx 18:05 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD made a failure at 1.3070 and a temporary top. The pair should be resisted at 1.3070 and to test 1.2935.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:04 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
What ever you say PIP maybe I misunderstood you when you included me in the toot the horn fellowship which was not very nice of you but what ever toots your horn. Have a good weekend and you won’t have to kiss my entire a$$. LOL

London JMB Trading Ltd. 18:00 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Have a nice weekend all... see you on Monday.
J

Rivonia PipPirate 17:59 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:40 GMT November 19, 2004
I was about to say "kiss my entire a$$", when it occured to me that you seem to be an ok/reasonable guy, and possibly have not been following the conversation between LL and PP, and would suggest you check back and reconcider as to who is attacking whome. I daresay I inadvertantly struck a nerve with the LL, well he is a big boy/girl so I'm sure the loquatious lizzard will be back to tittleize us as he is accustomed to doing.
As to helping at this time of the week, my only advice is to pack up and enjoy the w/e as all my tgts have been met for the day.

Hi Dallas Gep Have a gr8 w/e see ya Mundae morn.

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:56 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm ole buddy, you can keep throwing water in my face and others all you wish...my monitor however is waterproof...don't get none on ya. Betcha in a face to face you wouldn't be so nasty. And get away with it. Nice to be behind a firewall with a big mouth, eh? GT.

See you on messenger GEP.

Chicago Irish 17:53 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Valdez: Re your quito_ecuador_valdez 04:00 GMT November 18, 2004 post....2. I trade spot cash in my bank. I don't use a platform nor leverage. Just buy and sell Euros. Now how in blazes could I possibly put a stop on that? I've posted many times how I've traded...

What's the spread in your local bank for cash?

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:43 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Followed your posts Jksn..cool. C U Mon all. See what I mean, Jay? You pay the rent.

SanFrancisco TG 17:41 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Valdez - 3 B2 bombers and about 15 Tomohawk missiles will do it. It will be over in less than a 5 minutes. No significant loss of life, other than the Terrorist leaders.

On markets, Cad futures are now finally shifting positive, $ selling is over in this pair (and extended). There is little chance to miss on picking up $Cad at these levels at least for a few pips if you just stay patient, have a drink of Sake, and hold onto it and take profits later today or Sunday open. :)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:40 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate 17:10 GMT November 19, 2004
I don’t usually say much to people that attack others but I am a humble person and never toot my horn but if you want to include me in that fellow ship I rather be with the people that contribute to this FF and not the ones that attack others. You have a good weekend too. BTW very funny stuff but that is all it is and it won’t help anybody on the FX market IMHO. GL GT

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 17:39 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 17:35 GMT November 19, 2004
you too buddy and everyone else. 24-26 nov,2004 is coming so let's see what's in store as i posted earlier this week and last week.

Anyway, gt everyone and I am outta here.
TIA:-)

Zurich 17:38 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 17:31 GMT November 19, 2004

glad to hear it.

Van jv 17:37 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy////Your scenario??

SanFrancisco TG 17:36 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm - Have anything positive to say or any trading specific sentiments for the rest of day?

Halifax CB 17:36 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
sleep well HK, I'm out now, and have to get on with Friday pm chores (bookkeeping). Good w/e to all.

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:35 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Take care Jksn. G W/ E.
SanFrancisco TG 17:15 GMT November 19, 2004// Great post. I've wind from my underground tunnels you're exactly right...Iran's nuc & ratface leaders gonna be dusted, event/strikes will naturally draw fire from the pacifists & 'rabs who want a terrorist nuc state to exist, increasing the news effect so the media can make ba-jillions off it. Q is, who's gonna do the shooting? USA's military stretched out in Iraq..maybe the Frenchfries or Spanishflies? LOL.

Rivonia PipPirate 17:34 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
London. 16:25 GMT Since April 2002. Hope this helps.

Gen dk 17:34 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Van jv 17:34 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
SG 17:25 GMT///sounds like not officially on agenda to raise wrong exectations----but still intensely discussed??

Stockholm AGuy 17:31 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Zurich 16:44 GMT: "Lack of scepticism and common sence
disrupts me most. I've been watching this forum for 6
months now"

I've been around a bit longer than that, and there
is often a clown of the moment (like last year's
various incarnations of "Dollarbasher"). Lately we've
had an unusually rich crop though, now culminating with
the unusual phenomenon of two of the clowns apparently
ganging up to "take time to post and disobey Forum
rules".

The good news is that these characters never last for
long.

Those who post off-topic nonsense for no apparent
reason other than self-gratification (like the current
"political" kook) tend to burn out on their own (or to
be quietly warned and, if necessary, "terminated" by the
moderators).

Those who try to build up a following of naive "newbies"
by posing as gurus posting out of the generosity of their
hearts (...) tend to reveal their ignorance and true
character as soon as somebody calls their bluff (for a
current example, see yesterday's posts in the Help forum).

The rest of us spend most of our time lurking, throwing
out an idea now and then, contributing an answer when
we see an interesting question about a topic we know -
and yes, speaking up when the clowns start taking too
much of everybody's time "to post and disobey Forum
rules"...

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 17:26 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
good week-end everyone. gl for next week and interesting posts this week on gv forum(the intelligent ones!)

TIA and c ya everyone:-)

SG 17:25 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
G20 members agree to exclude forex rates from agenda - official
BERLIN (AFX) - Finance officials from the Group of 20 nations
reached a consensus to exclude the issue of foreign exchange rates from
the agenda of a weekend meeting opening here late Friday, a German
official said.
"There is a consensus of ministers not to have that on the agenda,"
the official, who asked not to be identified, said shortly before the
meeting`s opening dinner for finance ministers and central bank
governors from advanced and industrialized countries.
"This is not the forum to discuss it," she added, saying however
that "as part of the discussion on global balances and deficits,
obviously the exchange rates will play a role, but it`s not the focus."

US Treasury Secretary John Snow has signaled that Washington
opposed any intervention to slow the fall of the dollar.

#

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:23 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
LOL pippey.. Luckless Lizzard. ROFL..burro even likes it. But now Gecko's my hommie.
Zurich 17:07 GMT November 19, 2004// I think you're savy to many things..I look forward to thoughtful informative posts from you in fact as I KNOW you can contribute well. It's like a pub in here..no competition, just folks sitting around who make a living doing the same thing. CU Monday amigo.

HK Kevin 17:21 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 17:14 GMT, much better than me at 1.1980. Still keep short EUR from 1.3054, add some long USD/CHF at 1.1592. Stop in place and good night.

Halifax CB 17:20 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, that's "and long USDJPY"

Halifax CB 17:20 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
FWIW, I'm still short EURUSD, and no long USDJPY. But those are quick dumps at best, especially the JPY. If it breaks below 192.6, I'm out.

Bonn Karl 17:18 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 16:40 GMT / Welcome.

Now listen up everyone, there is not going to be any BOJ intervention today, especially with such little time left for the session to end. They might attempt to between 101.50/100.00. However, in order to do this, the USD has to act on it's own, by strengthening against the majors. And as long as the decline takes place at a slower rate, the harder it will be for the BOJ to intervene. After losing $288 billion, they have become more cautious and typical of most Japanese entities, the only way the BOJ can succeed is by teaming up.

Dallas GEP 17:18 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
How are you Pippirate??? My post was a tongue in cheek comment earlier regarding the GBP high print!! LOL

I miss your posts.

BTW lately it seems every Friday we have a late platform run AGAINST the dollar especially with the old EURO. So I wouldn't bet against that current trend.

SanFrancisco TG 17:15 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Iran should become a market issue within 4 weeks. The nuclear process (contrary to what has been said by Iran, which is a terrorist state) is internationally confirmed to be engaged. I do not expect it will be tolerated. However, I do not expect war. I do expect a swift and decisive strike in weeks/months to come that eliminates the nuclear program and Iranian radical leadership. Initial Chf gains, followed by a resumption of the USD "weak dollar" policy. Perhaps we could be looking at mid 2005.

Halifax CB 17:14 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin - sorry for the delay, I've been watching stocks...A little higher - at 1.193 or so. Should have waited a little longer.

Tallinn viies 17:13 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
ohh boy what a day,
after million trades finally short over the market.
keeping my short euro over the w/e.
short now from 1,3053.
no stop still.
target first at 1,2940/45.
have a nice w/e

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:12 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
For not knowing anything GEP Susi & I learned a lot from your kind considerate posts & guidance throughout this year. I might note, there is NO trader who doesn't at times incur neg p/l & likewise postings which result at times in negitive returns. 65% right - that's good. GEP, you and other pros here, who manage like you do, tens of millions of dollars of client's money or more, and over many years running, thus far have never ceased to amaze me with the care taken in disseminating info which has proven profitable to say the least both in money & best yet, knowledge. You're right, we're all just specs.. bespectacled speculating spectators. I s'pect that's easier to type than say. My hat goes off to contriubters such as you and other pros who help rather than to contaminate the forum with nasty verbage. It seems the professional fund managers & institutional FX gurus who are so kind as to post here are the very ones who DO NOT slam dunk other posters.

GA TJ 17:11 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 16:51 GMT November 19, 2004

Somewhere down here we should see the beginnings of the next swing move for USDCAD and USDCHF. But my stuff has been off all day. I think I woke up this morning and forgot to take off the dounce cap.

Rivonia PipPirate 17:10 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 16:46 GMT The Fellowship of "Own horn toot'ists" rallies, nice to see. I believe I have made more posts than the luckless lizzard this year at least... so much for here today....

Dallas GEP 17:07 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Closed eur/gbp shorts @ +15. A more patient person could hold for more but I ain't patient!!! LOL

HK Kevin 17:07 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB, did you take profit of your short USD/CAD near 1.19?

Zurich 17:07 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 16:49 GMT November 19, 2004
ok

Global-view: emailed.

Helsinki iw 17:01 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Waverider, thats why USD/JPY is soft, there is event risk in the weekend. Several ASEAN countries are considering a major policy shift. If nothing comes out of G20, we may very well see BOJ. But personally I wouldn´t expect to see them before that, they are far too professional. At least not in a big way.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:00 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 16:49 GMT November 19, 2004 //
;)

Global-View 16:58 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Zurich, could you email us. Your email address on file was bounced back TIA

Halifax CB 16:56 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Zurich - if you want deep insight and profound thought, try alt.philosophy. OTOH, you can learn alot just listening to people's chatter while they are actively trading (and do so yourself) and then by judging the results...GL/GT....

Toronto Waverider 16:54 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
*DJ China Central Banker:Prepared To Talk On FX Rates At G20

SanFrancisco TG 16:51 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Gecko - :)

We're finally seeing the resounding $Cad/$Chf dip I suspected we might see earlier. I now turn to a $ buyer as this has become an extension which (in intra day perspective) is running its course of "seller safe" sentiment. ($chf $Cad down 125 points).

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:49 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Well Zurich, then you have 3 options.
1. Keep on blasting people who take time to post and disobey Forum rules..matter of time before you get an emal. You can disagree in a gentlemanly manner without growling. I can't change your personality or lack of it but I can suggest you change on this forum.
2. Leave.
3. Best still, contribute your thoughts rather than to just jawbone about others. Contributions value 1000X more. OK? GT.

Helsinki CeCom 16:48 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
1,3067 on S*A*X*O, breach is close now...

van Gecko 16:46 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
London..TG..OMIL.. thank you for all your views too.. don't know why that 'here today gone tommorrow' xPipPoet is making those pip'less sounds today.. anyways he/she is not even fit to hold our pip bag$..:)

Dallas GEP 16:46 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
LOL valdez,

Hmmm...new daily high printed on GBP/USD. Just something else I don't know a dammm thing about!!!

Helsinki CeCom 16:45 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Another funny thing is when EUR/USD was at 0,84 all the experts said it might go to 0,70, now they say it will go to 1,40-1,50.... the same experts in some cases.

I also have my sell button ready at 1,3170 in the coming days.

Zurich 16:44 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Lack of scepticism and common sence disrupts me most.
I've been watching this forum for 6 months now and it
looks like all you like to do most is praise each other on 15pip bets.

Deep insights and substantial contribution is not that common around here (albeit not non-existant).

Eastbourne PJ 16:44 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
For a bit of fun... just type your commands and see...
http://www.virtualbartender.beer.com/beer_usa.htm

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:40 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Thanks, GEP, as usual for your info albeit PATIENCE with immature participants. Thanks also to Bonn Karl for your heads up on shallow retraces..you were of course correct. I do see a retrace coming but way into mid Dec at earliest or at 1.32 whichever comes first.

Zurich, what you and Bush do in your spare time isn't of concern here. LOL

Dallas GEP 16:37 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
BTW, there is a reason we are all called SPECS here. In reality non eof us REALLY knows a dammmm thing!!!

Halifax CB 16:35 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Got cold feet -& closed USDCAD short from this am (1.2 area) at 1.1928. Short on EURUSD from 1.3055 still holding.

SanFrancisco TG 16:35 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, right after last post CAD dollar futures finally coming under selling interest so perhaps we begin to see USD bottoming around these levels intra day.

SanFrancisco TG 16:33 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
CAD futures remain bid, CHF futures remain bid, Spot Gold remains bid at present. USD remains under pressure in the session providing good intra pick up shortly but with the intent on closing at profit without hesitation due to "weak dollar" policy. $JPY intervention (which is not a joke to be discounted) will loom from here as well near term.

River Falls_USA_ PB 16:31 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
folks losin' money today??? lotta' snarlin' going on. let's go fishing - we'll catch more.

London Tokky 16:30 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:25 GMT November 19, 2004
Zurich, REALLY???? I guess I will tell the guy at the Bank Of Japan that he is a liar!!!!

Zurich, FYI, I have paper-traded on Dallas GEP's posts twice now and they have been virtually spot-on. And by the way, it is your choice to accept or reject - no need to stone him.

Bonn Karl 16:29 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
eur/$ should see 1.3083/91 today

Zurich 16:28 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:25 GMT November 19, 2004
Zurich, REALLY???? I guess I will tell the guy at the Bank Of Japan that he is a liar!!!!

this sentence just proves that you are liar.
No one in BOJ or any other CB would ever just give away
info like that to a guy who likes to post it on forums.
Don't be ridiculous.

Syd :-( 16:26 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
AUD Sellers Back In Charge, Divergence Rising

Dallas GEP 16:25 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Zurich, REALLY???? I guess I will tell the guy at the Bank Of Japan that he is a liar!!!!

London. 16:25 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate how long have you been on GV and trading ,

Bonn Karl 16:23 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 16:16 GMT / Well on eur/$ nothing more to add than what was said 2 sessions ago?

Bonn Karl 19:24 GMT November 17, 2004
quito_ecuador_valdez 18:46 / Retracements on eur/$ will be very shallow. Ever since the summer range breakout, L/T funds have been selling USD against the majors, and versus the medium term (in the hope they may get in on dips?). Anywhere between 1.2940/1.2845 is a buy, s/l 1.2825 and the target 132.95/133.40. Below 1.2825, good demand at 1.2735.

Dallas GEP 16:23 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Everybody is EURO watching to see if we make new highs today but IMO, we need to watch GBP. The GBP could very well be the ONE to break today's highs prior to platform close. I beleive THAT to be more likely than the Euro breaking. London is closed.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:20 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas
I don't suggest U keep Your Eur/gbp Short for long time
It's Buy with me here

Zurich 16:20 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:16 GMT November 19, 2004

Your considerations are purely speculative and have no
serious reasoning whatsoever. You just "guess" that it could be like this.
With the same probability i can guess that G.W.Bush is
mastrubating now.

London. 16:20 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 16:02 thanks, take notice of your calls as they are spot on , maket as you say tends to lag a little but recall your Canadian one way back when it was in the high 25-30s

SanFrancisco TG 16:19 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Van Gecko - Surely your attention must be toward what you must do, but I for one do hope you will post more often at some point as you once did. Perhaps in time you will consider it a personal contribution and not pay attention to the negative elements. :)

Gen dk 16:19 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 16:16 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
I think we did to define the word intervention. Some people think in terms of the BOJ coming in a massively selling YEN but really most of the time it is MUCH more passive when for example they simply bid up usd/jpy or aud/jpy or eur/jpy at certain levels. Then they will let price action slide thru those levels only to bid up again at slightly lower levels. This allows for a more ORDERLY market in their mind but there are certainly HARD levels that they will come in with HEAVY . I am NOT suggesting we will see the HEAVY form of intervention but I do beleive we are getting the PASSIVE form of intervention now today for example.

SanFrancisco TG 16:16 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
At your will Karl. We've had some flow of buying/selling comments, how about a rest of day or beginning of week platform? :)

Rivonia PipPirate 16:14 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 15:16 Lol, the speed with which you manage to recall your posts leads me to beleive that you are accustomed to tooting your own horn. Two-bit five figure trades are a big yawn :-0, even luckless lizzards can do better.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:13 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Looks like another Friday and somebody forgot to close the gates on the bulls in the eur/usd pair again. More than a couple of virgin traders were sacrificed this time around but what is new. The usual food fight around here on Fridays is not uncommon either. Squaring at the end of the week and G20 meeting will probably keep this pair at bay for now resistance remains the same and support now seen at 2990-3000. A late run at the top would not surprise me either though. So a close for the day under support will go a long way for the bears we will see what develops from here. It is still buy on dips even with the indicators on O/B area on the daily charts IMO. Price action must prove that this is the beginning of the correction first before backing off the bull run IMO. Gecko hope you are doing well and thanks for the visit here hope it is more often but I would understand if you don’t (Fools rush in) LOL good one. I hope everyone has a good and safe weekend. See you on the other side. GL GT

Bonn Karl 16:12 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 16:04 GMT / I only slammed one participant, not two? My view, ant particular pair in question?

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:09 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Bonn Karl 16:01 GMT November 19, 2004// I'm in your camp regardless but I do give 40% chance MOF will intervene (having what real effect I don't know) AT SOME POINT..hopefully I'm dead wrong & they won't do a thing. I peg the first "watch" at 1.3100-1.3150. If we don't see MOF's cannonfire there then it's up for grabs if they'll intervene at all. Some say 1.32. Whatever. Fine. If they want to do battle with US Treas, let 'em go for it. Once they see the counter attack I'd bet it's back to lunch for them.

Toronto Waverider 16:09 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
I "retraced" a big chunk of my P/L today on one really baaaad trade. Just call me Toronto meathead.

dc CB 16:09 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Wasn't there someone here claiming that the current account deficit as a percentage of GDP (USA) was not a problem?

What Greenspan said:
"Net cross-border claims against U.S. residents now amount to about one-fourth of annual U.S. GDP. A continued financing even of today's current account deficits as a percentage of GDP doubtless will, at some future point, increase shares of dollar claims in investor portfolios to levels that imply an unacceptable amount of concentration risk.

This situation suggests that international investors will eventually adjust their accumulation of dollar assets or, alternatively, seek higher dollar returns to offset concentration risk, elevating the cost of financing of the U.S. current account deficit and rendering it increasingly less tenable."

GOES B747 16:05 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
started to build PUT regarding European bankers and insurers with strikes MAY-JUN/2005, intial target is 20%-25% drop is prices...I guess that all of you all can make the calculation how it means for PUT options.


have a good weekend all

SanFrancisco TG 16:04 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Karl - Now that you have slammed two participants, what is your view?

Helsinki iw 16:03 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
valdez, why on earth do you think the BOJ would be active in EUR/USD ?

van Gecko 16:02 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
London.. yep.. 2 weeks overdue.. it doesn't take much to get the Snowballs rolling down the hill once acrophobia sets in..
take a look at waterfalls during the weeks of Jan/11 & Feb/15th..

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:01 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Also, Karl, if you wanna call someone a meat head, it's me who deserves the title for listening to and even worse, accpeting, the garbage about a freeking retrace when we were at 1.2950-40. it was utter BS and I bought it (or not as the case was). I'm so tired of the word "retrace" at this point and losing profits listening to supposed experienced traders who tout it constantly that I could puke. Meatbrain Valdez. I think Jay should censor the word "retrace" for at least 1 month. LOL

Bonn Karl 16:01 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:55 GMT / ah unlucky.
Forget about BOJ intervention. They will not intervene, for the USD is falling against all the majors and not just the Yen. And even if they had to, they would only fuel heavier sellers on the pair.

Zurich 16:00 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:54 GMT November 19, 2004
OK WARNING.......the Japanese may appear to be passive here but I assure you they are very much alive and kicking and just when the market becomes complacent, they will enter. It will probably happen TODAY if only to slow down the shorts


oh really? :)

Halifax CB 15:59 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
BTW, folks who like to balance their risks with gold might want to look at the relatively new ETF, GLD.

SanFrancisco TG 15:59 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Closing spot gold long from 441 here at 446 solely on the basis of extension. The next cycle (intra day is down) so the USD is slated to benefit coming up (even if moderately).

SanFrancisco TG 15:57 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
However, if I'm considering levels at the moment the low since Asia is roughly 1584 $chf which (as I had a hunch early) is being tested one more time after a pull up. So if you're going by levels perhaps basing a bid off a breach and failure or lack of breach would make sense. The selling has been strong so it can't continue intra day into the next session without higher risk for the market.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:55 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : The market is testing the supporting range of 1.1500 // 1.1654 of my 44-day cycle. It is still valid :-


Hong Kong Qindex 02:05 GMT November 16, 2004
USD/CHF : As shown in my 44-day cycle reference (12/11) the market has a good potential to tackle 1.2423.

... 1.150* // 1.1654 - 1.1808* - 1.1962 - 1.2115* - 1.2269 - 1.2423* - 1.2577 - 1.2731 // 1.2885 - 1.3039* ...


This is in agreemnet with my Quarterly Cycle analyses :-


Melbourne Qindex 05:47 GMT October 31, 2004
USD/CHF : The current expected trading ranges from my Quarterly Cycle are as follow :-


Curve A : 1.1490 - 1.1733* - 1.1976 - 1.2219* - 1.2462

Curve B : 1.1490 - 1.1677* - 1.1864 - 1.2051* - 1.2238 - 1.2425*

Curve C : 1.1490 - 1.1642* - 1.1794 - 1.1946* - 1.2098 - 1.2250 - 1.2402 - 1.2554*

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:55 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Karl// Nope..bank FX office opened after it went back up this AM. Dunno if we'll see that opportunity again, getting too close to critical mass which I peg at 1.3100 - BOJ wars - to buy the € for my style of trading so I hesitate to enter now. Should've nailed 1.2950 when had chance. Have to settle for my 1.2420 & hold it for 60 pips more.

SanFrancisco TG 15:53 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
TJ - $chf has more downside interest than $cad presently. I'm not feeling spiffy about basing trades on levels at the moment but more on momentum/weight. End of week etc leaves us in a less technical and more ride the wave condition. Clearly the downside is attractive but testing extension so the real money will be happy to leave for fun this weekend having succeeded in bidding then taking profit and leaving the market right in the middle guessing.

I'm buying dips presently and taking profits without hesitation due to the "weak dollar" policy.

Sorry not level based assessment this time.

Halifax CB 15:53 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Well, nothing like uncertainty to drive markets. The USDCAD shorts are still holding, and on the ST taken a somewhat opposing stand by shorting EURUSD. My own POV is that we are heading into range trading on most ccy's for awhile, which means there's a good chance that the strongly correlated ones will start to decouple. GL/GT

HK Kevin 15:51 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, should read " Lahore Mano 15:38 GMT, EUR close under 1.3060 today or an hourly close under 1.3020 in not good for making a new high.

HK Kevin 15:50 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Lahore Mano 15:38 GMT, EUR close under 1.3060 today or under 1.3020 in not good for making a new high

London. 15:49 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Van Gecko , just on more thing , do you see market at these levels overstretched and due for a correction, even after the performance today with Greenspan and co.. appreciate your views

Syd 15:46 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Best to see how London finish the day , short or Long

Dallas GEP 15:46 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Took Eur/gbp short @ 7030 Could go higher but I like this level very much

Bonn Karl 15:46 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:44 / LOL. Did you get back in on eur/$ @ 1.2940?

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:44 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Nothing like expert trading commentary, right Karl? No more coffee for you boy.

LDN LDN 15:41 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Lahore Mano you bought at the all time high !!

GA TJ 15:40 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 15:33 GMT November 19, 2004

Where do you see the bottom of the dip for CAD. I am thinking 1.1946 and 1.1568 for Swissy.

Uncle Al confiscated my USDCAD Happy Hour Tab earlier this am with his comments. Thanks Al

Syd 15:39 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan's message is clear though: interest rates are going up and the markets will eventually have to react. Think thats the message the market should take on board, because its one they always wait for after a fed meeting and he has given it to them an early warning signal

Lahore Mano 15:38 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
whaat are the next targets EuR/USD can achieve in next week.
i 've bought EUR/USD at 1.3066 and other one going to be bought at 3010.
can u plz anaylyze these moves for next week......??????
I m seeing eur/usd at 3250 in next week......!

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:38 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
An interesting observation, again a country boy's way of thinking, since Fed said outright to expect interest rate hikes, and if interest rate hikes supposedly make a c'ncy more desirable, how is that following the plan of devaluation? It seems one cancelles the other (OCO). But if Treasury releases more USD moneysupply of course that negates any value added by interest hikes. Anyone want to add/critique this?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:36 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
cable 1.8690

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:35 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
chf today 1.15

Ldn 15:34 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
CAD Could Reverse In Early '05 Leading indicators in the G10 are showing a synchronized downturn, Defensive currencies and trades that capture a cyclical slowdown (short EUR-CHF and short AUD-CHF) still remain attractive," the Merrill report says.

SanFrancisco TG 15:33 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
I see last dip underway for $Chf and $Cad presently then the probabilities are stacked to pick up some careful USD considering the Greenback is under a "weak dollar" policy headed into the weekend.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:32 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:16 GMT November 13, 2004
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle ) : The current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 104.82 - 106.28 and the mid-point reference is 105.55. The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is positioning at 104.08 and the neutral zone is 105.06 - 106.04. A projected resistant level is located at 107.01 - 107.28. A projected supporting level is expected at 103.46 - 103.55. The weekly cycle normal trading range is 103.46 - 107.16. (Suggestion : The odds are in favour of maintaining a short position).

Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

Curve A : ... 103.02* // 103.55 - 104.08* - 104.62 - 105.15* - 105.68 - 106.21* - 106.74 // 107.28* ...

Curve B : ... 102.62* - 103.11 // 103.60* - 104.08 - 104.57* - 105.06 - 105.55* - 106.04 - 106.52* - 107.01 // 107.50* ...

Curve C : ... 102.99* - 103.35 // 103.72* - 104.08 - 104.45* - 104.82 - 105.18* - 105.55 - 105.91* - 106.28 - 106.64* - 107.01 // 107.37* ...

Projected barriers of my weekly cycle are as follow :-

... // 102.14 - 102.41 - 102.62 - 103.11 - 103.25 - 103.35 - 103.46 - (104.08) - 104.70 - 104.82 - 104.92 - (105.06) - 105.32 - 105.55 - 105.76 - 105.93 - (106.03) -106.28 - 106.55 - (107.01) - 107.16 - 107.43 - 107.74 - (107.98) // ...


quito_ecuador_valdez 15:31 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
London// Maybe I've got too elementary a view but I'd say there's a healthy chance BOJ won't touch this USD depreciation schedule for political reasons alone..obviously if Japan negates USA's plan to cheapen the USD for at least a while during Trade Deficit reduction, they'd be angering their best customer...not a wise business move nor politically correct. Also as you mentioned, the USD support (money vs time) has to come from somewhere and money is not limitless..but time is limitless and USA can wait it out, watching Japan squander it's resources just to mess with currencies. No, I don't think MOF is stupid...that's my point...intervention at this point is a fear, it isn't reality. "Fear is the mind killer." movie: Dune.

Bottom line, I wouldn't be surprised if my and everyone else's "intervention" fears from MOF/BOJ are totally unfounded.

Trichet & Co is a different matter. The guy is a punk.

London. 15:30 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan says those not hedged for higher interest rates will lose money, "Rising interest rates have been advertised so long and in so many places that everyone who hasn't hedged by now is losing money." What he said is fairly obvious, of course.

Definitly preparing the market for faster rate hikes , I this is why he is so cool about the Dollar , knows full well its rates will support in the end

hong kong nt 15:28 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
AB -- long usd/jpy at 103.0..

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:28 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
NZ Long 0.7070 for Ivan.. :)

LDN LDN 15:27 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Why is the Euro not higher today , after all the hype

GOES B747 15:26 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   


"GOES B747 15:02 GMT November 16, 2004
sell google, make money!!

gt all"

bandung mbonky 15:26 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
fqx for 1000th times it still have a little impact (i hope so) to the market as you saw just after mr g say about I words

Syd 15:25 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Greenspans Ace in the pack , higher rates and a lower currency best of both worlds

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:22 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
chfYen ..Nice Long

PAR 15:22 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Bond markets seems to believe Greenspan is hinting at higher US interest rates.

London 15:21 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Yes but if we are all honest, intervention is great for the traders but sucks for the banks, its a vicious circle like feeding a lion in the jungle , keeps coming back for more until it eats you. BOJ are successful because of the huge amount of surplus

London JMB Trading Ltd. 15:21 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Tsy's having a strong shank now

bandung mbonky 15:19 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
london i have mine fastened, better you do the same thing...
i still have my headache for my long 103.05's
i hope i can get out of this soon before time up

dc fxq 15:17 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
"dont forget what greenspan said about intervention just now"

for the 1000th time: get this straight, what Alan Greenspan thinks or says about fx, intervention or currency valuations mean NOTHING AT ALL.

The Fed is NOT in any way involved in decisions relating to forex EXCEPT to follow the orders of the TREAUSRY officials who TELL the FRBNY to act on their behalf.

van Gecko 15:16 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia xPipPoet..
does a 5 figure play on the Aud & Nzd sound like your 20 pip pirating? dream on matey..

"13:03 GMT September 2, 2004
levels from here down to Aud .6950 & Nzd .6450 if seen are good buys for pikers & positional players.. these rare inter-market abberations induced levels may not be seen again after this week.. fwiw..

"03:29 GMT October 15, 2004
Kiwi City, NZ Air Press Oct 15 7:11 AM -- New Zealand Dollar flight to .7100 update:
after lifting off from the .6450 intermediate attractor flight pad last month, the recent blast above .6700 had kicked in additional turtle power to fuel the high flying Kiwi. The next intermediate attractor along the geometric trajectory to .7100 is .6880
Looks like the New Zealand Dollar may be the 2nd major pair to take out the Dollar's year low after the front running Canadian Dollar. Nzd/Usd last quoted at .6828"




SanFrancisco TG 15:14 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Expecting one more probe of the $Cad low within the next half hour to hour and then the downside should be resolved and the probabilities will favor holding a long trade for 50 pips +/-. This runs according to logic of what I see, logic can be tossed out the window by the market, but there is a point intra day where sellers run into risk to stretch the program.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:14 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Do this today

EURUSD 1.3130 1.2940
USDJPY 104.4731 102.8141
GBPUSD 1.8686 1.8413
USDCHF 1.1730 1.1534
EURCHF 1.5193 1.5110
AUDUSD 0.7938 0.7762
USDCAD 1.2103 1.1871
NZDUSD 0.7214 0.7051
EURGBP 0.7036 0.6984
EURJPY 135.6111 133.9495
GBPJPY 194.0190 191.3967
CHFJPY 89.6347 88.6559
GBPCHF 2.1643 2.1499
EURAUD 1.6755 1.6383
EURCAD 1.5759 1.5446
AUDCAD 0.9507 0.9332
AUDJPY 82.4486 80.4795

Calabash TarHeel 15:14 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:54 GMT November 19, 2004
Fwiw: I think you are right. I have one long at 102.90, just put stop at b/e. Have another waiting at 102.50.
gl,gt

London 15:14 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Also the Chinese , dont need the West to tell them how to count it just is not on the menu , probably more rate hikes

London. 15:11 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
bandung mbonky they will come out of their corner on Monday fighting before especially if the Yen is near 102 , so better have your pants fastened tight

bandung mbonky 15:09 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
absolutely right but you dont expect boj to enter this bloody market right now do you?? better wait next week

gold coast martin 15:08 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   


London. 14:57 GMT November 19, 2004
Without taking too much space...with the yen sub 103 we are close to a"free lunch" but only after Apec meeting.....this combined with a drop on the volatile CRB index(aust. like we had yesterday,will drop aussie back to 7725 by next tuesday...long term i still hold views i held for 9 months on aud.....and euro for that matter...g/t

berlin otto 15:07 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Good morning America
Latin and US

today mr. G. and mr. T. and mr. I. speaks

we must have holidays, because the market is too much volatile.

All of you I invite to buy or sell on Monday, Nov 22.

London. 15:06 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
bandung mbonky I dont think the BOJ give two hoots what Greenspan thinks , he isnt running their show

Rivonia PipPirate 15:05 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
LOL Monsieur Gecko, a 20 pip windfall IS a fortune to a luckless lizzard.

Halifax CB 15:04 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Goes - well done. Re. Bin Laden - wasn't that one of the rumours that drove the EURUSD down yesterday? It's worth a few pips when/if it happens...BTW was it you that mentionned RMB earlier? If you have any idea what instruments (other than forex) are best to take advantage of this, I'd be happy to hear it...Once you are sober, that is :) GL/GT

bandung mbonky 15:02 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
you cant say aud overbought at this xau level...
i dont think boj will intervene today, if so, they will invite more long jpy position to come, dont forget what greenspan said about intervention just now
maybe there will be clue after weekend (hopefully...)

Toronto Waverider 15:02 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
*DJ Greenspan: Probability Of Deflation Reduced

Waysa?

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:00 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Nice call GEP on $ selling longed it..t/p, shorting it. ...you'll have mail in 5 min.

Folks, I feel 1.3085 is right under critical mass for el MOF to at least hollar something profane out his office suite window at Washington. That not working then at somewhere inside 1.3100-1.3150 I suspect we should sustain the first volley-fire of intervention bombardments if indeed Sr. MOF decides to mess with Bush & Co. knowing full well Washington will takes a very dim view of intervention. That's when it'll get trickey. For now 1.3070 seems to be defended normally, it's not MOF thus far.

Dallas GEP 15:00 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Remember when hunting or trading, you only have to be faster than the slowest hunting guide. For if you are OFF target and miss the game prize, he (slower guide) will serve as the sacrificial lamb to the larger prey.

London. 14:57 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin whats you take on aud here

Dallas GEP 14:54 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
OK WARNING.......the Japanese may appear to be passive here but I assure you they are very much alive and kicking and just when the market becomes complacent, they will enter. It will probably happen TODAY if only to slow down the shorts

Sydney 14:54 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
what the situation with the aud its very overbought at these levels RSI must be touch 100 hourly

ny amc 14:53 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
GOES..............nice job. good for you

GOES B747 14:52 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
black label for the forum on me!!

Nairobi TN 14:51 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 14:46
Thats a load of pips mate. hats off!

Helsinki CeCom 14:50 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
stopped, out -70 pips

london mamun 14:50 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
HELLO BEIRUT MK

WHATS YOUR TIPS PLS

GOES B747 14:46 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Just closed 9days old GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY shorts for 920pips

gt all

BEIRUT MK 14:45 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
got stopped out at 191 for gbpjpy
bloody day..!

Toronto Waverider 14:41 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Uncle UNCLE ... :(

gold coast martin 14:39 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
River Falls_USA_ PB 14:37 GMT November 19, 2004
In Italy every citizen gets to be primeminister in their life time...lol

van Gecko 14:39 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
London.. the market seems to be putting the squeeze on the inscrutable sans here.. should the Boss start giving out firing orders to his trigger happy sumo worriers, 1.2825 is within the weekly ATR in my 11:37 scenario..

Hong Kong Qindex 14:37 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : It seems to me that it doesn't want to wait for next week to tackle 102.50.

River Falls_USA_ PB 14:37 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Syd 14:34 GMT November 19, 2004 ///I was just in Italy for 3 weeks - the people would love to see him go! - but then that's Italian politics; wait 2 months for a sentiment change.

NewYork frankie 14:35 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Hey, Greenspan has given me an excellent idea on how to trade the forex market in future

Greenspan, in his speech, did not specifically discuss the value of the dollar. Although he said that forecasting exchange rates "has a success rate no better than that of forecasting the outcome of a coin toss."

Well, here we go. I just tossed a coin and it was heads. That means long the Euro from here for 1.32 LOL

cork g 14:35 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
where will the jpy go?where is the BOJ?

Dallas GEP 14:35 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
157 pips on USD/CHF B747

River Falls_USA_ PB 14:34 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 14:28 GMT November 19, 2004 ///probably about 20...like greenspan - we've already spent the billions when the faucet was open wide. gt

Syd 14:34 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Berlusconi Threatens Resignation if Tax Cuts Blocked

Gen dk 14:32 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GOES B747 14:28 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
may someone tell me how amny pips movement capture of OBL will cause?

gt all

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:27 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta-South 14:09 GMT November 19,// Good show amigo. I'm no pro..but tks, just a private trader. I'll be joining y'all on platform soon after I cash in that juicy 1.2420 Euro paper I'm holding next week. Just in time too..whew! BTW I added $25,694 to my originjal $100,000 k ~censored~ demo the last 17 days just swinging 'n raiding max of 15-20 lots/move, reaslizing demo NOT = live experience..I treat demos as "real". Over $3k profits longing-shorting Greenie's spike....but I won't contaminate FF with demo stuff, only my spot actions. R U nearish White Columns, Atlanta-South & the Plains highway? I lived in Athens - 70s-80s.

Helsinki CeCom 14:27 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
anyone comments on Aussie?

London. 14:26 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko do you think we can get 128.50 s/t Euro this rally on Euro doesnt seem to have legs or feet

BEIRUT MK 14:26 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
got stopped out on eurusd short at BE 1.3046.

still long gbpjpy at 193.20 stop 191.
still short gbpusd at 1.8509 stop 1.8650

short again at 1.3035 stop 1.32

Dallas GEP 14:26 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
OK look for short term dollar selling here

Hong Kong Qindex 14:24 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : the odds are good that the market will challenge the lower barrier at 101.89 // 102.50* early next week

Helsinki CeCom 14:23 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
sold EUR/USD 1,3028 aiming for 1,2985 tonight. S/L 1,308

Hong Kong Qindex 14:23 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


Hong Kong Qindex 06:26 GMT November 19, 2004
USD/JPY : The current expected trading ranges from my 44-day cycle reference (12/11) is 102.50 - 104.96 and the mid-point reference is 103.73.


... 101.89 // 102.50* - 103.12 - (103.73) - 104.35 - 104.96* // 105.58 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 14:20 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Once the market can penetrate through the level at 191.52 - 191.73, the next targeting level is 190.66.


Melbourne Qindex 12:54 GMT October 31, 2004
GBP/JPY : The current expected trading ranges from my Quarterly Cycle are as follow :-


Curve A : ... // 186.91 - 189.32 - 191.73* - 194.14 - 196.55 // ...


Curve B : ... // 186.91 - 188.79 - 190.66* - 192.54 - 194.41 - 196.29 // 198.16* ...


Curve C ; ... // 186.91 - 188.45 - 189.98* - 191.52 - 193.05 - 194.58 - 196.11 // 197.65 ...

River Falls_USA_ PB 14:19 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 14:13 GMT November 19, 2004 ///didn't know anybody else here traded straddles...good thought, but IMO would rather sell volatility than own it. gt

van Gecko 14:19 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate.. haha, having a tough time pirating 20 pips at a time down by the dumps? good luck on your new life as 'Rivonia xPipPoet ' away from fx..

Livingston nh 14:17 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
IMO the APEC conference has more potential for a surprise than the G20 (political leaders are at APEC) - the adjustment in the Chinese peg to the USD might be the subject of an announcement (even if it is only a joint study group) // ECB could talk about rate cuts but yesterday showed the possibility that EUR one way momentum has paused so if the ECB wanted to intervene to slow things the "pause" is one condition met - run some stops let the shorts cover and come in again on the bounce // fwiw - weekly and monthly MACD is not supporting the EUR run to new highs (the chart since Jan looks like the post bubble run of S&P 500 in 2000)


London. 14:16 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Once this party is over , anyone see "Buy the rumour Sell the fact" , and the big boys cash in their christmas bonus's because the way things are going they will be so loaded with short Dollar positions could get unconfortable.

Dallas GEP 14:16 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
took +30 pips on the usd/chf longs from 1.1585

London JMB Trading Ltd. 14:16 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
He's talking now

Dublin Flip 14:15 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
15 mins ago

Gen dk 14:15 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London. 14:14 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
When is trichet taking the floor

GOES B747 14:13 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
River Falls_USA_ PB 14:05 GMT November 19, 2004

I think to enjoy both just take options that strike @ 1.2750 & 1.3250 for APR/2005; both will hit and you will make 5 times the initial bet (get rid from the 1.2750 when 1.2710 hits and get rid from the 1.3250 strike when 1.3315 will hit).
both prices will hit until APR/2005

Also, jut before closing the JPY longs against EUR and GBP; I hope I was not the only for the happy ride :-)

gt all

Santo Domingo tht 14:13 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Today might be cables sixth failed attempt in ten days to close above 1.86.

melbourne farmacia 14:13 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa - Covered 80% Gbp/Jpy 191.60 ( Lower channel ) fwiw

GA TJ 14:12 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Keep in mind the posibility of the big players reducing Dollar exposure today due to the jawboning festivities this weekend.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:09 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
River Falls_USA_ PB 13:57 GMT November 19, 2004// There ya go! Obviously if we see SUPER HYPER CHEAP USD you'll see investors flocking in by the hoard, fighting with the bajillions of tourists for hotel rooms and restaruant seating. Argintina for example was/is a buy now..movie stars from California now own huge ranches & other realestate goodies there. Ecuador..same-same in the mid 90s...my $60k house bought in '96 on the cheap is now worth $160 8 years later. Which is why it's going up for sale in 2 months for a quick take at $132k, over 2X to fund my ranch. So yes, go buy stuff in Yankeeland if USD goes to 1.40. And quick. An icecream stand even to please tourists on hot July days. GT

Atlanta-South 14:09 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez: Again thanks for your info & adv. Being a new trader 3yrs it helps getting other MORE PRO TRADERS input. I longed EUR/$ last date @ 1.2969 & closed out mins ago @ 1.3064 on a 2 lot trade = 190. Now the bad side. after deducting previous loss off 80 pips, YES I'll admit my losses. I'm positive 110 for the wk. You cautioned everyone about the future of the TREND on THURSDAY, but you still showed preference for a 1.3100 level as I did also. Your patience help me stay the course. PATIENCE a GREAT thing to have in this business. Not saying this to brag, because I do lose, but I keep it to a min. Thanks to all who contribute on this forum. Ea has something to offer. GT TO ALL. Oh YES VALDEZ, this want done on a live acct.

River Falls_USA_ PB 14:05 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
so...I reversed my €/$ shorts at 3040 for a weenie long, which I cleared at 3060 for a Greenspan 20 pip. Now what? scalp all day or go short again for my beloved retracement?

Budapest Daniel 14:05 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
its a completely doomsday for me... :(

London 14:04 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14
what if the euro doesnt reach it 131 today, wont it e bad Karma

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:02 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Only a few pips for Greenie eh? Well, this is far from over because now the immediate knee jerk is what you saw...the road is paved smoothly to haul butt in a red wagon to 1.31 and more, meeting any so called intervention head on, flat out. If I were MOF and Trichet I'd cool my jet and just go have lunch.

SanFrancisco TG 14:01 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Lock em in GEP. Still downside risk though odds somewhat in your favor from purely tech/extent perspective. MHO

River Falls_USA_ PB 13:59 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 13:57 GMT November 19, 2004 ///you must be phsycic talking to my tourista story. gt

London. 13:57 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
menue god my spelling fingers working without the brain, menu

River Falls_USA_ PB 13:57 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:47 GMT November 19, 2004
a 17% "discount" vs Euros, CHFs, GBPs, AUSs and NZDs under what the prices for US exports would have been earlier this year vs those currencies..
///so I should start buying hotels 'cause the US will become the favored tourista spot with the cheap $ spread! gt

GOES B747 13:57 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
facts to consider, 17M Chinesse went aroad during 2003; that was 47% more than during 2003 and 2M more than Japanesse.

please tell me why 'People's Money' (RMB in translation) will not go 10% higher per year in average, why?

gt all

HK Kevin 13:56 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan only give EUR ~20 pips more. If the market really want to buy EUR, it should be 1.32 now. Sell at 1.3054, stop 1.3081.

London. 13:55 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Whats next on the menue

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:54 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
London 13:44 GMT November 19, 2004
Well, That's our Greenie. Remember, good ole Alan is NOT the dictator of the Fed...the board approves. Bush approves. Snow will have to approve to start the "presses". So it's the USA's deal amigo..not just one chap.

Rivonia PipPirate 13:53 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko You appear down in the dumps. Try humming "always look on the bright side of life"...or Frank Zappa had some nicer words....
"Flies all green 'n buzzing in this dungeon of dispair
Traders grumble and p*ss their clothes and scratch their motly hair.."

Dallas GEP 13:52 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Long on usd/chf @ 1.1585 with 1565 stop

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:49 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 13:41 GMT November 19, 2004// Let the games begin, eh? Start your engines.

River Falls_USA_ PB 13:49 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
London 13:44 GMT November 19, 2004 ///perhaps he is succumbing to this administration's favorite line: "Stay the course"...which could at least be good for trading - predictable. gt

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:47 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
River Falls// I've heard that too..a temporary 1.70 USD would see a noticeable difference in US export demand. And it wouldn't "collapse" the USD contrary to some alarmists. I'd say that's extreme thinking however...something like 1.35-1.40 would be say a 17% "discount" vs Euros, CHFs, GBPs, AUSs and NZDs under what the prices for US exports would have been earlier this year vs those currencies..that's enough to spur the horse of exports IMHO and get the trade deficit reduced..

Sofia anmart-fx 13:47 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
09:06 GMT November 19, 2004
EUR/GBP is a buy at 0.7000. S/R at 0.6990. Target -0.6946.
08:17 GMT November 19, 2004
GBP/USD-1.8505. The cable is a buy for 1.8640.

London 13:44 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan is clearly not the worrying type. Current account deficit? Not a problem. Oil price surge? The economy can handle it. Too much consumer debt? Hey, don't worry about that either. There's a growing sense among some in the market that Greenspan is putting on his cheerleader hat just a bit too often these days.

Halifax CB 13:44 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
FWIW, I have to retract my kudo's for the Cdn PM for yesterday for the firing of Carolyn Parish - I though (mistakenly) that he did it because she was a leader in the anti-US cult up here, and hence her dismissal was a noble & brave thing (it weakens his already weak minority gov't) that would lead to better US/Cdn relations, and hopefully a weaker loonie. But alas, he fired her just because she dared him to. More of a schoolyard act, than anything else. So we are short USDCAD, but in a small way....

ICT ML 13:41 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Tritchet has got to be fuming at Greenspan now. Greenie seemingly giving the okay to sell $$$$ with abandon......

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:40 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Looks like today is D-day instead of my predicted Wednesday of next week. At this rate my tgt of 1.3080 could be seen soon.

GA TJ 13:40 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Well my USDCAD long posi just crapped out in a hurry. Get cocky and get smacked upside the head.

River Falls_USA_ PB 13:39 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
gecko/valdez
my little birdie says the stronger euro will enjoy more capital AND bond support reducing US debt support. I believe this is the balance that speaks to the intervention talk. Many believe that US economy wouldn't be truly positively export driven until €/$ is 1.70-1.80. JPY intervention is much more real with their heavily weighted export economy..when?...we saw it at 110. Will it be at 102? This is all IMO.

But what do I know - am now stopped out of my €/$ shorts

Halifax CB 13:38 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
I'm betting the goose hits the ground first :). BTW, I had a friend who raised geese; wretched animals they were. You'd go in his barn, and they'd peck at your legs and make a racket if you tried to talk to one another...

GA TJ 13:32 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Could the Goose be spreading its wings for a nice flight? I think the jury is still out on wether it will assume a leadership role or just being the renegade.

Syd 13:30 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
If the US are not careful they could cause the Equities in the US to tank

Syd 13:27 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
EU Commissioner A slowdown in the euro zone economy in response to an appreciating euro exchange rate would probably destroy the Stability and Growth Pact and would complicate the task of structural reform. It might also lead to an upsurge in political disaffection across the euro zone.
(ap)

London JMB Trading Ltd. 13:17 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
PAR 13:08 GMT
Thanks... if they are looking at holding the $'s then I'd guess they'll be tsy buyers so we'll probably see that Bund/Tsy spread widen again.

van Gecko 13:17 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
valdez.. the 95 Dollar Index low was around 80.. but there's no hard & fast rule that the Dollar must get there to complete a '10 year cycle'.. yes?

PAR 13:08 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Info from Bank of France. Will bring them euro 200million in interest/year once the gold is sold.Did not mention in which currency money would be put.

manila stubbs 12:54 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 12:32 GMT November 19, 2004

i bought earlier at 1.2980. i still have some more ammo to fill up in case it dips again. good enough entry i guess since i got off at 1.3050. i just have a feeling that today might just range - wouldnt wanna waste opportunities. on the other hand, you are also right to hold onto them for a longer period... im leaning towards this. how come you dont trade through a platform? its much more convenient i think.

London JMB Trading Ltd. 12:51 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
PAR 12:03 GMT November 19, 2004
BOF will sell 500/600 tons of its gold reserves and at same time increase its foreign exchange reserves.


Hi,
Thanks for that.
Just wondered where that info came from? Are they looking at buying USD?

GOES B747 12:50 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 12:40 GMT November 19, 2004

Interest rates and deficit per capial during 95/96 should answer all you questions in full, as life are a wheel!

gt

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:49 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Tks Geneva..just going from memory here..point is pair stability. Any thoughts then?

knoxville dan-k 12:49 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
well prior to last march lows on usd/jpy, it was year 4/2000 since this pair was down here -- hummm

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:47 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
I think the point I am nudging at on my last post below is that the €/$ has no resistance now..we broke through all highs in the history of the pair. So to speculate on where resistance is difficult other than to observe existing positions and sell orders that we know do exist.

BTW I am told by excellent source the same new EU members who had sell orders for &euro/$ at 1.31+ have moved them up considerably to 1.34. It would seem those CBs therefore anticipate 1.34. Humm. Just when I thought I had this figured out...evidently there must be some underground financial intel saying BOJ and ECB intentions to intervene will either be stymied by US Treas/Fed or they won't intervene at all at that level. But we're told 1.31-1.32 is intervention time. Something's afoot. Anyone savy the shadows here?

GENEVA FHR 12:45 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Quito Low $/CHf was April 1995 1.1110

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:40 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Here's a thought for the pros to respond to:
Since USD is the target of concern, intervention threats etc. and since both JPY and EUR are in the works for intervention (we think), it seems like trading USD crosses with those two is tripple threat...USD can be manipulated by BOTH BOJ and ECB..a cork in the ocean. Whereas Swissy involves only one volitile..the USD. Bottom line, it would seem therefore less risky to trade Swissy. Also, since 10year low on Swissy was 1.1100 back I think in 1996, then if the 10 year cycle will repeat fully, we've got some 500 pips to go whereas with €/$ we really don't know with this pair since the pair is much less than 10 years old. Follow me here? What think ye pros & gurus. Food for thought, eh?

KL KL 12:38 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
in short gbpusdf 1.8580

Halifax CB 12:38 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
LDN LDN - you mean the inverted H&S with a low in 2001? That would be a nice one to see completed if you are long AUUD/USD, wouldn't it....

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:32 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Yeah, and raise those low interest rates and you have the housing sector (big big busniess..all that lumber and stuff) & realestate guys screaming. Frustrating to say the least.

~~~~<><<>><>~~~~

manila stubbs 12:20 GMT November 19, 2004
quito_ecuador_valdez 11:55 GMT November 19, 2004

.. i got back onboard the euro earlier today - i wanna square my possies, but i really hate being left behind. on the other hand, i also really hate buying too early. argh! what to do what to do...

What is your position exactly?..At what value did you enter your E/$ longs?

BTW I missed my chance by not buying some cheaper Euros yesterday..now look at it..coming down at least part way hopefully today. Sheesh. This is the only bad thing about dealing directly with banks..you have to trade in limited hours..not 24/6.

I think Wednesday-Thursday next week will be showtime BTW for $ bear$ to put up or $hut up. I'd keep your longs actually and not worry about it for a bit no matter where you entered. Don't take a loss..not necessary. 1.3085 is where I think I'll go ahead and sell all my Euros before the wild firefight I think will happen at 1.31...meaning up-down weird intervention untradable junk. If you close then too you'll do OK. Lemme know.

manila stubbs 12:20 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 11:55 GMT November 19, 2004

its amazing how patient you are. i got back onboard the euro earlier today - i wanna square my possies, but i really hate being left behind. on the other hand, i also really hate buying too early. argh! what to do what to do...

PAR 12:18 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
US manufacturing is getting squeezed by too high raw material prices caused by too low interest rates and a too low dollar.

LDN LDN 12:17 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone see the top of a shoulder on the monthly charts Aud.

Gen dk 12:16 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 12:13 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw well what is there to say ,

Gen dk 12:10 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Helsinki iw 12:07 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Something completly different on a Friday afternoon.

http://www.zurichlabs.com/id_sem_wm.htm

An oldie but a goodie. My apologies beforehand to GVI

JHB CDB 12:04 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
london mamun

O, and your entry time and prise?

PAR 12:03 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
BOF will sell 500/600 tons of its gold reserves and at same time increase its foreign exchange reserves.

JHB CDB 12:03 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
london mamun

Thank you, do you mind if I ask where your SL is and by when your estimates for TP?

Gen dk 12:01 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:55 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Glad I sold my €s @ 1.3030 yesterday.


♠ Friday's Calendar
Fri Nov 19 All times GMT es=estimate pr=previous ♠

Bulls, Bears, BOJ's Samuris
Economic news + or - has not powered the market lately.
Mouse over some entries for comment.

Today's Pearl Harbor Forex: Old traders never die, they just exit their shorts.
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Monthly Report 5:00
EUR Fr. GDP QoQ 3QP 7:45 es=0.4% pr=0.7%
EUR Fr. GDP YoY 3Q P 7:45 es=2.10% pr=3.0%
EUR Fr. Cnsmr Price Indx MoM OCT F 7:50 pr=0.1%
EUR Fr. Cnsmr Price Indx YoY OCT F 7:50 pr=2.2%
EUR CPI-EU Harmonised MoM OCT F 7:50 pr=0.1%
EUR CPI-EU Harmonised YoY OCT F 7:50 pr=2.2%
EUR Ital Indus Ordrs YoY SEP 8:30 3:30 pr=9.7%
EUR Ital Indus Ordrs s.a. MoM SEP 8:30 es=-0.60% pr=0.00%
EUR Ital Indus Sales nsa YoY SEP 8:30 pr=11.0
EUR Ital Indus Sales s a MoM SEP 8:30 es=-1.3% pr=2.9%

USD Fed Moskow Welcome Remrks @ JobLossConf 13:15
CAD Whlsl Sales MoM SEP 13:30 8:30
CAD Whlsl Invntories MoM SEP 13:30 8:30 pr=0.0%
USD G'span, Trichet, BoJ-Iwata Speak subj-Euro 13:30
USD Fed Pianalto Welcom Remrks @ Educat'n Conf 14:30
USD Fed Stern Speak US Econ(in Minn.) 19:00
Happy Trails


london mamun 11:52 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
HI JHB CDB

I AM LONG USD JPY TARGET 105

Ldn 11:49 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
A US name has been a prominent seller of the USD, reportedly on behalf of a CTA--
Reuters is looking to sell its majority-owned US share-dealing network Instinet for $2bn, with Goldman Sachs-controlled Archipelago the most likely buyer, according to The Times.

Syd 11:45 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
NewYork frankie well done

Gen dk 11:44 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Singapore 11:41 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 11:31 GMT November 19, 2004
Under 103

KL KL 11:38 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
out 1.8574...just +12...is good

NewYork frankie 11:38 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Closed euro longs now short looking for 50pips again. Hold on, this is a wild ride today.

van Gecko 11:37 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
London..iw.. the euro weekly ATR for the last few months is around 250 pips.. we had only seen a 160 range this week.. so, the market will either blast through 1.3075 as it is trying to do now or could reverse all the way down to 1.2825.. guess some 'investors' will hum "Fools Rush In" after this week..

Austin RF 11:36 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
In regards to GBP/USD, the final leg of 5th wave terminal impulse is underway and penetration of upper trendline will complete the move that
started on 09/05/04. This will end the (D) wave of a horizontal
triangle on the weekly chart. The (E) wave should end about
1.8000. A terminal impulse pattern will retrace itself 100% and
that means 1.8200 !!! That's a 450 pip decline at least.
Happy trading.

JHB CDB 11:32 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Hi All

Does anybody hear have a open position for USD/JPY long?

SG 11:32 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Traders should look for the use of the following words in the communiqué;

“flexibile FX systems”: meaning countries must allow their currencies to float more freely, i.e. a hint to China (dollar negative);

“stability”: cautioning against excessive moves in currencies (dollar positive); and

“market based moves”, implying that currency moves must generally be left to the forces of supply and demand (dollar negative).

When all is said and done, we expect the terms "flexibility" and "market based" to carry more weight, just as was the case in the last three G7 meetings, where the interpretation pointed to extended but cautious dollar-selling.

Ldn 11:31 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone expect BOJ appearance any time soon.

Sydney 11:30 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
I would imagine that the gentlemen in the meeting are watching the Dollar performance , I wonder if they will sit by and let it fall into the black hole.

KL KL 11:27 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim, fwiw this form of trading have saved my skin more than position trading....short gbpusd 1.8586..because of you Jim...LOL

Halifax CB 11:22 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Cad tech - the recent USDCAD low on daily/weekly closings was a 1.62 retracement of the Jan low to the May high; this doesn't seem to signal an end to the decline but a consolidation point where it gets even more volatile for awhile. I don't see any reason to think that the end of the run is here - especially after EURUSD has regained it's former levels - but keep an eye on the cycling in both. Dr. Q's levels could be really handy at a time like this...GL/GT.

London. 11:21 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Friday is a critical day for EUR bulls, says Merrill Lynch. A daily close in EUR/USD above 1.30 is needed to ease bearish risks, a close below 1.2950 would be damaging. Intra-day tone is positive, but the close should dictate positioning into next week

Helsinki iw 11:17 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD daily volatility is probably close to that 42 bps, so it doesn´t really matter for investors. Basically interest rates are the same across the Atlantic.

Bruxville Jim 11:16 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
KL KL// I guess you should take a day or two off. Such trading is not good for your nerves... unless you're demoing.
GL.

Austin RF 11:16 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Plant your shorts at about 1.8650 on GBP/USD for a ride to
1.8200 minimum and 1.8000 possible. Then, when down move
is over, expect about 1660 pip rise. Happy trading!!

KL KL 11:15 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd 86 -4 , usd jpy got taken -7....very calm now!!....thinking thinking

Gen dk 11:15 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London 11:14 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Further strengthening of the EUR/USD pair together with the view that the ECB will hold rates for another year at least, will trigger further widening in the US Tsys/Bund spread across the curve, says WestLB. "This should particularly be seen at the short-end, where further Fed tightening will contrasts with a further scaling-back of ECB rate hike speculation." This in turn will lead to a clear outperformance of 2-year bunds vs US Tsys. 2-yr US Tsy/bund spread now at 42 bp.

Sydney E.M 11:12 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Market feels as if it wants to sell the Dollar again today and no retacement forthcoming at all ? hope I am not correct

Sydney E.M 11:10 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai BC views on todays action if poss

KL KL 11:09 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
rats shorts taken out earlier. ...reshort 1.8582...lose 10..make 10 what a silly game...oh well

Helsinki iw 11:08 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Problem is do Mercer& Bloom sing for those desperatly trying to loose their once green currency or those who are bottom picking while there is no bottom yet in sight?

Gen dk 11:08 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Kras A.D. 10:57 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
sold gbp/$ at 1.8570 -target 1.8420
stop/rev at 1.8590 - if will done-target 1.8620
Good Luck & good trade

Gen dk 10:55 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

KL KL 10:36 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
short again gbpusd 1.8568...maybe big barrier some where here??

long usdjpy 103.69 sl 7 below

porto mw 10:36 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 10:31 GMT November 19, 2004
Tks

van Gecko 10:33 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
morning islander.. good to see you..
London.. humming Mercer & Bloom's classic "Fools Rush In" may help while trying to figure out market tops & bottoms ?

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 10:31 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
porto mw

top..r

botton..s

porto mw 10:28 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 10:06 GMT November 19, 2004
Morning all!
Can u tell me wot this lvls r?

GL/GT

KL KL 10:28 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
ha ha eat my dust gbpusd out 1.8543 +15

st. pete islander 10:22 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Good day, Gecko .... The more things change ... the more things stay the same. Hope you are well. Suspect Super Mouths will continue for a bit longer before hitting the firing button. gt.

berlin otto 10:19 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Mauricio 09:10 GMT November 19, 2004
Good Day Everyome. GL/GT.

And you too have a nice day.
Market is in my direction.

London 10:14 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 10:10 hate to ask, but can you give us a translation

van Gecko 10:10 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
the once mighty greenbuck began its serious decend from heaven with a 6 months 1700 basis point dive in 2002.. but since then, it had not fallen for more then 9 weeks without doing a dead cat bounce of at least 300 basis points.. it had been diving for the last 12 weeks without any significant bounces..
so, after having lost 3800 basis points over the last 4 years is this latest Dollar blast up over 1.29 Euro the green flag for the poor Buck to embark on another 6 months 1700 basis point dive ?
back in May when the poor Euro was down at 1.18 with the US Equities falling & Crude Oil rising, some 'Euro/$ Bottom Feeder Club' members were humming Johnny Mercer & Rube Bloom's classic "Fools rush in" lyrics in the shower..
now 6 month later, the scenario had changed.. the mighty Euro is up at 1.30, US Equities are rising, & Crude oil is falling, but Mercer & Bloom is still singing their "Fools Rush In" classic in perpetuality..
interesting times indeed..


KL KL 10:10 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
ok reshort at 1.8558...this time no more those long term play...taking the profit when seen....silly me 20 pips were on offer and I let it go....now no mercy

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 10:06 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
1.3215 1.3189
1.3146 1.3133
1.3103 1.3098
1.3093 1.3090

EUR
1.2990 1.2982
1.3008 1.2995

1.2923 1.2920
1.2913 1.2908
1.2870 1.2857
1.2801 1.2775

Gen dk 10:00 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK Kevin 09:59 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Closed my short USD/CAD from 1.2083 last night at 1.1994. Thinking of long USD/CHF at present level. Expect today to be a quite and range market.

london mamun 09:56 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
BEIRUT MK
what you advice about usd jpy

Syd 09:50 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Intervention Likely On Drop Below Y103

HKG fei 09:41 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
feeling BOJ will come in this round

Gen dk 09:37 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

dxb-Dubai start_raider 09:30 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Hi be patient for 1.2880 to buy Euro for 1.3130

dxb start_raider 09:24 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
good reward possible selling euro/yen now around 135 for 100 -120pips

prague jv 09:19 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
well, well ,well what is happenig here . this does not looks very well . Lets get ready to rock and roll here with only 1/10 of normal possition size . this will get more room for stops , and lets try some rangeing tricks

Chicago Goofy 09:18 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
When USD/CAD drop below 1.1980 and Yen approaching 103.65, the euro bears better reshort at higher level...IMHO

KL KL 09:18 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
locking in my 1 pip and let it run to 1.85....gingers cross hopefully

knoxville dan-k 09:15 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
i ment aud/usd move along with eur/usd

knoxville dan-k 09:14 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, if you or anyone else knows, does the nzd/usd and the aud/nzd move with the eru/usd ?

hk ab 09:13 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
nt//fwiw, buy some more dlr/jpy 104

Dallas Mauricio 09:10 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Good Day Everyome. GL/GT.

sofia anmart fx 09:06 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP is a buy at 0.7000. S/R at 0.6990. Target -0.6946.

London. 09:05 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Berlin May Yet Help The Dollar The combination of an ECB rate cut and an accelerated rise in U.S. rates would both curb the current trend for pushing the euro past $1.30 and provide some opportune anti-inflationary pressure in the U.S. Data this week showed U.S. producer prices rising by a much higher-than-expected 1.7% last month and consumer price inflation also surging, with prices rising by 0.6% on the month and 3.2% on the year. There is also, of course, a strong argument for suggesting a slide in the dollar against the euro isn't the solution to the U.S. current account problem and there is little point in the U.S. encouraging further decline.As Tim Mazanec, currency strategist at Investors Bank & Trust in New York, pointed out, although the dollar has fallen 14% against the euro in the past year, the U.S. trade gap with Western Europe has remained static around $8 billion.
The total U.S. deficit, meanwhile, has expanded by $10 billion over the past year, largely as a result of Southeast Asian imports and the rising cost of crude oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
"This all adds up to some interesting discussions likely ahead of the G20, especially if 'exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals,'" Mazanec said.
"They might agree monetary policy most probably lies at the heart of the matter and that there are risks for both from a misalignment of the euro/dollar exchange rate," noted Mitsubishi's Brown.

AP

London JMB Trading Ltd. 09:03 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Hello All,

Are any of you trading futures? or are you solely FX based?
I used to be on here a few years ago when I was trading FX, but I've moved into short sterling futures now. I can't remember whether you guys are trading any futures.

KL KL 08:59 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
ouch ...grrrrgh reshort 1.8560 make 10 lose 10 not very productive effort???

Budapest Daniel 08:59 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
this market behaviour is getting annoying...

KL KL 08:55 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8543

hk mom 08:50 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
I will re-sell euro at 1.2995

chicago joe 08:49 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
the dollar bulls are being squeezed once more...

KL KL 08:48 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
ouch 2nd one got taken stop hunt day...good ...readjusting ninja tactics...fast play now short 1.8535 out +10....have to make up now those losses. Flat and waiting

BEIRUT MK 08:47 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
try to short audjpy at 81.25 stop 81.77 target 80.25

hk 08:45 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
BEIRUT MK Aussie ?? tia

Syd 08:44 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
FX OPTIONS: EUR/USD Large 1.3000/50 OT"s Expire One Week Today

BEIRUT MK 08:40 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
eurusd at 1.2850 will be seen soon

Moscow Vasya 08:40 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd now is @1,8523 - will wait for 1,8495 and if happens - buy to current level or higher

warsaw TMS 08:40 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Hi Tallin, where do u put yr s/l if u can tell m epls??

BEIRUT MK 08:38 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
eurusd is building a bear flag on the hourly chart
it is a very good number to short at1.2984

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 08:37 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
ks snk 08:13 GMT November 19, 2004
thanks. :-)

NewYork frankie 08:36 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Oh well, I'm wrong. Out of my Euro shorts and now long. Tp 1.3030

KL KL 08:31 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8526...should have waited for this earlier....oh well lets see

sofia anmart 08:29 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD long stop at BE. 1.8545 -cloud of Ichimoku.

chicago joe 08:20 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
trade of the day anmart fx 08:17 GMT November 19, 2004
GBP/USD-1.8505. The cable is a buy for 1.8640.

With a name like that you can't go wrong.

tk jf 08:19 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
trade of the day anmart fx 08:17 GMT November 19, 2004
where do you place yr stop for this trade ?

prague jv 08:18 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
selling gbp/usd looks very atraktive from here 1.8515 .9 short term , mid term , all good gt

trade of the day anmart fx 08:17 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD-1.8505. The cable is a buy for 1.8640.

ks snk 08:13 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Raden Happy birthday to you !
strong health to you and all of the best.

Dont drink too much :-)

Gl, gt

KL KL 08:07 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
out long at 1.8503 +18 SAR short here sl 7 above

china qq 08:07 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
hhehe.. i rather choose to sell gbp than buy.. ready to sell again @1.8505..sl @1.8525...gl all..

NewYork frakie 08:05 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
sold Euro at 1.2965 TP 100pips lower. Stop at 1.2995. Expecting big things today!

LA Fxnew 08:03 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
anybody long cable now ?

KL KL 08:00 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
really suprise that I am still biting my lips and holding my gbpusd short from 1.8525...now at 1.8485...1.5 hours is very long in my style...so rather than should have would have ...OUT +40 and SAR here for a few more up then down again...gl gt to all

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 07:55 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
I am sorry Mr. Jay..
This is not avertising. I just want to share my chart discuss to all your members here by picture. thats more enjoy I think.
I hope next time you open page about chart discuss by picture. I will be glad.
To all my friends here ..
I have special little gift in my special day (today) at www.fxtradercenter.com (not Centre).

Syd 07:51 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
AUD made a double top at the 0.7840 area and has fallen close to 0.7740 area support. A second wave of USD strength could push AUD/USD as far
south as 0.7650
sxo

chicago joe 07:49 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
viies any views on aud and jpy? GT and TIA.

London. 07:43 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
, Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber told Boersen-Zeitung in an interview published Friday.
The recent strong appreciation of the euro against the U.S. dollar is unwelcome,Weber said there are "some fundamentals which may speak for an appreciation of the dollar," citing in particular the recent U.S. interest hikes and the favorable U.S. mid- to long-term growth prospects.
Weber said he doesn't believe the recent rise in the euro's external value is endangering the export-driven economic upswing of the German economy.
rts

London. 07:38 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
The euro has fallen under $1.3000 short-term toppish now. Targets $1.2912

Tallinn viies 07:37 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
good morning world
sold euros at 1,2969
target 1,2850

HK [email protected] 07:34 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:36 GMT November 19, 2004
Thank you for the answer. Just came in late.

8.28/7.78= 1.064 more or less
means revaluation of 6.5%. On expectation of no change in HKD and one currency (eventually) as you said.

Ldn 07:28 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
German Finance Minister Hans Eichel said Thursday that he hopes the U.S., Japan and Europe will find a joint position on exchange rates.

Ldn 07:24 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
German Economy Too Weak To Improve Public Finances - MOF

Syd 07:20 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
tk jf was hoping to see around 7720 later so as you say will have to wait to see what happens when they all sit around the table.

tk jf 07:15 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
syd - u will need to wait for usdcad to turn higher and eur lower for people to start back on the aud 7816 max high _? we shall see

LOs Angles 07:13 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
ANy one know good charting for FX

Syd 06:46 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Aud anyone see it lower in Europe or US session

Sydney 06:38 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
JHB JW 06:34 wonderful, another very late night :-((

KL KL 06:37 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
ok short again gbpusd at 1.8525 catch a bit more down draft before longing again

JHB JW 06:34 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Sydney
USD US Fed's Moskow Gives Welcoming Remarks at Job Loss Conference 13:15 8:15
USD US Fed's Greenspan, ECB's Trichet, BoJ's Iwata Speak on the Euro 13:30 8:30
USD US Fed's Pianalto Gives Welcoming Remarks at Education Conference 14:30 9:30
USD US Fed's Stern Speaks on US Economy in Minneapolis 19:00 14:00

Hong Kong Qindex 06:29 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
chicago joe 06:07 GMT - The odds are in favour of taking short position but one should take a look in my page for the reference numbers.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:27 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 06:19 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
could be seen

1.2995

1.1674

.7800

1.1998

1.8543

Sydney 06:18 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Anyone know what time GMt the first meeting starts and who it will be

Syd 06:13 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Platinum Down On Tocom Plunge seem commodities taking a bit of a hit in Asia

Syd 06:08 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
LME 3-month copper, down at $3,042.50/metric ton, posting negative 10-day momentum divergence which suggests bull run of recent weeks probably ended; immediate, minor underlying support at $3,020,

chicago joe 06:07 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, what does your system favor for the usd/jpy? a long or short? TIA.

Hong Kong Qindex 05:57 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
tk jf 05:48 GMT - In general my accuracy is 60 - 70%. I would say more than 50% correct.

Hong Kong Qindex 05:55 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
tk jf 05:39 GMT - I don't know your time frame of trading. In general my regular weekly cycle analyses are very good and one can trust those numbers if your are a position traders. My weekly cycle analyses are very good reference on the beginning and the last day of the week. From time to time I would post the monthly , quarterly or 3-month projection profiles. They are useful if you are option trader. In case there is some unexpected movement I would monitor the market with my 44-day cycle.

tk jf 05:48 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
q - im not relating to the probability of any one event - but the analysis itself - i thought u may track it as a percentage - not to worry - thanks

Hong Kong Qindex 05:45 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
tk jf 05:36 GMT - EUR/USD : One of the curve in my Quarterly Cycle indicates that there is a chance for the market to go down to 1.1049 is high if the market is trading below 1.2332. It is still vaild for the remaining period of this year.

tk jf 05:42 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
q- or in other words what % of forecast are the actual results valid for

tk jf 05:39 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
q- also if i want to utilise the numbers i must remove bias - i just signed up for your trial and am looking at your sets - i like the euryen analysis and eurusd was very good yesterday - but again i would like to see some statistical representation of validity at any point in time so i could incorporate that into the profiles

tk jf 05:36 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
q - lets just take eur u thought eur wud move to 1.10-1.12
at the time it was a chance however the market moved agst this view and it blew out your euryen gbpyen gbp and eur calls -- now market has stablised into more normal pattern your analysis seems to have caught up to what the market is doing again - my own trading analysis is simple i look at the p/l - i was wondering whether you track the vailidity of your projections to give you a level of confidence - even using simple 0-100 scale - so right now your levels maybe tracking the market at 90 % where a little while ago may have been 40 %

Hong Kong Qindex 05:33 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 05:28 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
tk jf 05:07 GMT - Give me the specific example. It is because in my system there are several big cycle movement governing the market momentum. In many cases they may have similar projected chart points for the next 1 - 3 months and sometimes I am bias and pick the wrong cycle.

nyc sa 05:22 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
thnx Farmacia .

melbourne farmacia 05:08 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa - Can’t see sub 190 at this stage. ( need to be fairly conservative playing this pair IMO ) Lower end channel stands between 191/50 ish from my reading.. see how things develop next 24 hours.

ML – cheers mate… understand your feelings on Gbp/Jpy . Swinging bitch ! Scaled out most positions yesterday after 5 – 8 week holds.. Back to intraday. Looking for cable @ 1.8530/50 .. Could dump from there.. Bit out of ideas thus far…

tk jf 05:07 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
dr q - i mean more that ^^^ a month or so ago your analysis was dead wrong yet lately your numbers have returned to validity in their determination of mkt movement - just wondering whether you calculate a statistic that gives you this as a percentage?

Syd 04:57 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
aussie stops below 0.7750. Bids are at 0.7720 and
0.7700.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:57 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
tk jf 04:47 GMT - I am very confidence on the position of my projected chart points if I have enough time to follow the market movement. The direction of the market for a particular time frame is always the most challenging part.

LA Fxnew 04:56 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
there is no sign cable will go down..
is it a right move to buy cable now?

thanks

hk mom 04:50 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
c9 changes the appetite. I like buy eurjpy now 135.

chicago joe 04:49 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
jv I agree with your views. euro downside is limited to 1.289 imo before retesting the highs. usd/jpy might goto 104.8

tk jf 04:47 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
dr q ^ have you a confidence index for your projections ?

p j 04:47 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
to ad is for end of this week

Atlanta-South 04:47 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez: You just titled the next BOND movie.

pr jv 04:46 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
my hamble guess is , that we have seen low on usd/jpy and eur/jpy is shortly about t be made , b4 relly .

prague jv 04:43 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
still cannot figure out eur and gbp . upside and downside limited on my sistem .
eur/gbp can stay here for longer period then is healthy
eur/usd and gbp/usd with false spike to either side
and then quick to neutral levels , where it is at present

Looking at price action on very short term on jpy , the feeling I am getting is that the next forex move will come from there , and jpy will pull back some of it reasen relly , whilw other ccy can stay in the check .

ICT ML 04:40 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 04:06 GMT November 19, 2004

Sorry mate......that monster (Gbp-Jpy) mauled me a month back and I removed all its charts from plain sight so as to not be tempted to battle that one again for the near future. I put a Gbp-Chf set in its place but the spread is too high to mess with that one.

You got any words of wisdom for friday session?

I get to wear the dunce hat again if I don't get out of this mess I'm in from Yday early London in half way decent shape. They ($shorts) were looking good so I went to bed and now they are ugly.......

I amaze myself sometimes. When I screw up I go all the way.

Dallas GEP 04:36 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
THis looks pretty good to me guys:

BUY: eur/usd 1.2970, stop 1.2920, target1.3040
SELL usd/chf 1.1720, stop 1.1745, target 1.1620
SELL usd/jpy 104.36, stop 104.50, target 103.80
BUY eur/gbp 6998, stop 6980,, target 7030
SELL usd/cad 1.2070, stop 1.2100, target 1.1910
SELL aud/usd 7774, stop 7790, target 7700
SELL NZD/USD 7043, stop 7060, Target 6982

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:33 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
signing off...tomorrow is another day. GT all.

Ldn 04:29 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
LME copper fell sharply in early trading Friday as renewed dollar strength prompted long liquidation by Chinese traders at both the LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange.LME metals prices are often influenced by currency movements, with prices generally rising when the dollar weakens and falling when it strengthens. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated metals more expensive, which leads to lower demand and consequently a drop in metals prices. Renewed vigor for the dollar Thursday after days of weakness saw copper prices plunge in Asian trading hours Friday
retuers

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:28 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 03:52 GMT November 19, 2004// Actually, yes, I do feel shorting EUR/USD long term before weekend is ill advised but if some want to do it all I can say is do it very conservatively and treat it as a risky entry. Just because a retrace of that pair is WANTED and HOPED FOR by us FX trader types, that doesn't mean it will happen as desired.
So don't get too brainwashed by all the noise in the street. In fact I'd stay away from any USD, JPY or EUR crosses period until after Tuesday..but again I'm talking position trading cheeze here.

As to your comment about retrace in Swissy before 1.11, sure, it would very very likely retrace because 600 pips, if indeed the pair goes that low is a lot of distance without some form of retrace to power the pair down. I was just citing a 10 year range so all could note it...600 pips to go if USD attains low of 1.1100 of the 90s. Was citing this in effort to contain USD's devaluation to the "10 year range" of Swissy.

I hope you're right about a €/$ retracement. Personally I don't see it punching lower than 1.2700 for the following reasons:

1. The trend of EUR/USD is decidedly UP. Trend biases me.
2. A retrace deep into USD bull territory such as 1.27 is normal for large 1000 pip formations in the nearish past, to wit from Q1 of 2002. Question is, is the present peak ready for a retrace? In my op it is but it could be just as well ready in 200 more pips. Maybe more. Impossible to actually say.

If E/$ has a 300 pip retrace soon to 1.26-7 (and it could) then that means a double peak would be forming relatively soon after that retrace. See 1 year E/$ chart, compare to period from 11/24/2003 to 4/24/2004...6 months in all to see last large double peak to get an idea of what's happening. If that double peak forms we're talking one of two things:
1. USD after the double peak forms completely will either revive its former value vs crosses or
2. Another double peak will begin to form some 8 months from now with some 500-800 pips altitude. I doubt that as then we're talking over 12 cents from today..1.42! Somehow that isn't likely...but still possible. GT amigo.

honolulu Byron 04:22 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
chicago joe 04:18//Hi joe, that's another level on the chart, i prefer to see the 107.xx resistence first... if like what BC mentioned that we gonna see another USD bear leg... 115 still a long way to go..

chicago joe 04:18 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
byron, me thinks 115 is the target.

honolulu byron 04:15 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
For dlryen buyer, here is the chart you may want to have a look:

http://fxtradercenter.com/modules.php?name=Forums&file=download&id=59

gl and gt

nyc sa 04:14 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Hi Farmacia , glad to see we are riding the same pair GBP/JPY , do u see a chance of breaking lower than 190 ?what it the bottom of this bear channel ? I am told around 191, do u think it can overshoot ? ur view will be much appreciated . thnx .

Syd 04:14 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD staged an outside reversal day on Thursday with profit taking on long positions in the past 24-hours by funds due to event risks this weekend. A discussion
on the 'wider use of the Euro' between Greenspan, Trichet and BOJ Deputy Governor Iwata is on the agenda , G20 meeting in Berlin and the APEC Summit in Chile. USD shorts decided to be cautious closing out many position.

Sydney 04:09 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
NZ migration figures fell sharply in the 12 months to October, from 39,310 last year to 16,960 RBNZ possibly on hold with rates until 05

melbourne farmacia 04:06 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML - u have any Gbp/jpy open ? target objectives etc. Deciding on T/P level considering we might not see a swing bounce near lower channel.

Ldn 04:03 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
The profit taking ahead of APEC and G20 meetings this weekend continued in Asia and the AUD/USD eased below
yesterday's low of 0.7763 to print 0.7757.

tk jf 03:58 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
at some point the moves in us interest rates will be a factor - usd positive - but cant include it now because the market is not looking at it

tk jf 03:56 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
just a word of warning i think - fx trades on market factors (future market factors) - we are surrounded by usd bearish warnings - we see forecasts of up to 1.40- we see snow keeping up his bearish talk and most participants are happy to trade in this direction - but keep in mind we need more factors to keep the trend in place because todays news becomes old fast in foreign exchange (discounted).... i still feel we see a move to 1.2750 first then we shud look objectively at the market and decide what wud be the next correct direction... -- also keep euryen in your sights -- it still is in a corrective pattern as well -----imo and gt

nyc sa 03:52 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Valdez , don't u think it will be ill-advised to short the dollar against any of the majors ahead of the weekend and the group of 20 meeting ? I have a feeling traders will be closing positions and square before the weekend . As to Dollar /swiss do u really believe $/SFR can drop another 6 cents without retracing first to the 1.22 level at least before resuming its down trend .I am guessing anyone shorting the dollar here at these levels will soon be trapped .I am expecting a quiet retracement before another down leg .

bandung mbonky 03:51 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
do you want the deepest eur today?? i bet for 1,2857 w/ stop at 30 pips below

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:50 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Just a note...I am told by propriatory source in Europe the &euro SELL orders formerly in some new EU CBs at 1.31+ are now pulled out & replaced with SELL orders 1.32-33 & 1.35-38. This means those CBs NOW think 1.31 will be passed with insufficient resistance to hold, permitting much higher long levels in &euro/$. As to what BOJ will do (if anything) remains to be seen. Perhaps my confidence that BOJ will intervene is over done. FWIW.


♠ Friday's Calendar
Fri Nov 19 All times GMT es=estimate pr=previous ♠

Bulls, Bears, BOJ's Samuris
Economic news + or - has not powered the market lately.
Mouse over some entries for comment.

Today's Pearl Harbor Forex:
New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (OCT) 0:30 es=-2.0% pr=3.0%
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Monthly Report 5:00
EUR Fr. GDP QoQ 3QP 7:45 es=0.4% pr=0.7%
EUR Fr. GDP YoY 3Q P 7:45 es=2.10% pr=3.0%
EUR Fr. Cnsmr Price Indx MoM OCT F 7:50 pr=0.1%
EUR Fr. Cnsmr Price Indx YoY OCT F 7:50 pr=2.2%
EUR CPI-EU Harmonised MoM OCT F 7:50 pr=0.1%
EUR CPI-EU Harmonised YoY OCT F 7:50 pr=2.2%
EUR Ital Indus Ordrs YoY SEP 8:30 3:30 pr=9.7%
EUR Ital Indus Ordrs s.a. MoM SEP 8:30 es=-0.60% pr=0.00%
EUR Ital Indus Sales nsa YoY SEP 8:30 pr=11.0
EUR Ital Indus Sales s a MoM SEP 8:30 es=-1.3% pr=2.9%

USD Fed Moskow Welcome Remrks @ JobLossConf 13:15
CAD Whlsl Sales MoM SEP 13:30 8:30
CAD Whlsl Invntories MoM SEP 13:30 8:30 pr=0.0%
USD G'span, Trichet, BoJ-Iwata Speak subj-Euro 13:30
USD Fed Pianalto Welcom Remrks @ Educat'n Conf 14:30
USD Fed Stern Speak US Econ(in Minn.) 19:00
Happy Trails


quito_ecuador_valdez 03:33 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 01:37 GMT November 19, 2004// My bank FX office closed 5 hours ago..can't do a thing til they open tomorrow at 0930 EST, will again consider buying €s tomorrow AM depending on the chart. Obviously if €/$ is descending I'll wait until it's dipped to the max for the day (Fri). This market is so volitile anything can happen. If you want to buy some €s now, make it a conservative buy and ready to see better € prices.

I feel 65% sure E/$ 1.3100 will be defended by BOJ, I feel 85% sure 1.3050 will be, not to mention 95% sure for 1.3200.

Remember USD/CHF has 600 pips to go before 10 year bottom is hit..tells me 6cents more potential USD vs Euro...that's 1.35 if intervention doesn't fly and US Treasury wins.

chicago joe 03:18 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Yeah TJ, i'm losing my patience tho I just longed added some more at 104.22. Keep my fingers crossed that we will see 105 at some point today.

GA TJ 03:13 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Is anyone else a little surprised that early Asia has not seen the USDJPY make at least an effort to move up? Attempting to read this sentment can be confusing.

Ldn 03:03 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
S Korea Fin Min: Will Act If FX Market Too Volatile

KL KL 02:59 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8506

nyc sa 02:15 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Why is the USD still not a buy at these levels ? I just cannot understand ,all europeans are complaining EU , swiss etc.. about the impact of the low dollar on their currencies and exports , yet nobody seems to have the guts to intervene in the market and buy the dollar ,very puzzling indeed ! can someone shed some light on the reasons -besides the twin deficit - could it be that the dollar is QUIETLY being accumulated ? have we hit a bottom yet ?

Syd 02:12 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc that great many thanks

shanghai bc 02:09 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   

SYD -- Good mornong..Short-term bounce of Dollar is a good possibility covering some 200--300 pips in Usd/Chf..But Dollar may still has 1/3 of its down-leg in this round,roughly towards Usd/Chf 1.10--1.11 region..Snow's "i do not care" comment helped Euro to go through 1.30 and we are now below that Snow-line..I guess most good-sized players are contemplating how to deal with soon-to-be BOJ interventions and possibe ECB interventions too..That can be translated into some more bounce of Dollar before it starts its last 1/3 of its downleg in this round ..The bounce from there will take us back to Usd/chf 1.22 and above again at some stage..Good trades.

Syd 01:39 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai BC, would you say we are at the start of the correction on the USD

London. 01:37 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
we may get closer to 129 later today on the Euro with any luck 128.50 may be achievable

KL KL 01:37 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez, u planning to long eurusd now?

Hong Kong Qindex 01:36 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 01:27 GMT - Good morning! I have a feeling that there is little change in HK$. Evenyually there will be one currency used in HK.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:33 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


KL KL 01:29 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
ok time for action long eurusd 1.2950..gbpusd 1.8482 out +5 +6=+11....so so start

HK [email protected] 01:27 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Good morning Mr. Q. I would like to ask you a Q.

If you have an Idea, how much if any will be a change in the...HK$ in case of 5% revaluation in the Yuan.
Thank you in advance.

hk ab 01:19 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
oh....LDN=hk observer LOL.

Sydney 01:14 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
With the meeting fast approaching, analysts said it made sense to hedge bets and buy dollars to trim short dollar positions.Short positions essentially are bets a currency will fall."Now markets are thinking that it is possible that something on currencies might be cobbled together, so they are position-squaring ahead of the G20," said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Bank of America in New York."Investors are unwilling to go into an event like this with large positions," he added.A number of European financial leaders on Thursday repeated what has been a common refrain -- that they are concerned about the euro's sharp rise but that it is not necessarily a problem at current levels.

LINK

Hong Kong Qindex 01:10 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:00 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Why is the $/¥ falling you ask? $/¥ is falling just like it's fallen for a long time much to the shagrin of the MOF. It is momentum. If it continues to fall then intervention will start eventually. BOJ intervention can come in several forms including but not limited to buying USD spot and instruments to prop up USD, selling yards of Yen to lower demand, create fiat Yen (electronic money..costs zero) to inflate the Yen then sell it (double whammy), purchase other devaluating currencies for reserves, sell Au out of reserves to weaken yen's base reserve. It is pot luck as to what will happen but if this $/¥ keeps on the same track as it has for the last 50 days, expect intervention. But keep in mind it's not panic time..yet..$/¥ is only100 pips lower right now than it was last February.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:50 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Houston CAP 23:29 GMT November 18, 2004
I will leave you my ideas in the help forum this forum is for forex talk only.

Sydney Ge11Ja 00:46 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
I have taken back 1/2 of my eur/yen here. I am just being cautious re this w/e meetings etc and if nothing come through will re-establish Monday. I still feel chances are strong for 130.00 ish.

I am happier with aud and nzd paring their gains, I think yesterday's levels were just silly timewise, wait until better confirmations before rushing in to that trade.

Expect ranging today with potential for great opportunties next week

Syd 00:46 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Take Resolute Action In FX If Needed
says Japan Tanigaki

pr jv 00:46 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
imho , the more ECB and BOJ buy usd , the more likely they cutch the cold from theres distance brother .
Strong ccy does not have to be nesseserily bad thing , if they know how it use it properly . Different circumstancies apply for japan thought .
Europ cannot expend its membership without strenghtening eur . imho

knoxville dan-k 00:41 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
ok, why is the usd/jpy falling any iders

Gen dk 00:38 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London. 00:27 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Associated Press
U.S. Dollar Bounces Back Against Rivals
The U.S. dollar bounced back after sagging to another record low against the euro Thursday. The currency's persistent weakness spurred speculation that the European Central Bank may stage a risky intervention in currency markets to prop up the dollar and protect Europe's export-driven recovery.
The dollar also rebounded against Asian currencies, but not before hitting a four-and-half-year low against the Japanese yen after comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow suggesting Washington won't try to stop the dollar's decline. The dollar also fell to a seven-year low against the South Korean won.European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, worried about a strong euro making its exports more expensive, has tried several times recently to talk the euro down - describing its climb as "brutal" and "not welcome." But markets have only pushed the euro higher. "I think they have to do something," said Commerzbank economist Michael Schubert. "There was verbal intervention and markets seem ready to test if there is something behind these words."
The ECB - which has so far been wary of intervening on its own - could use bank reserves to buy dollars. Intervention could prove risky. If it fails, the bank loses credibility and the dollar could continue to slide. "I could see them intervening any time from now on," said Allan Saunderson, an economist at Eurozone Advisors consulting group in Frankfurt. "I could also see them holding off until $1.35." But Dorothea Huttanus at DZ Bank in Frankfurt said the bank will likely try stronger verbal intervention before it acts. "There have not been enough warnings of this type for the ECB to take the next step," she said. The ECB intervened to support the euro four times in 2000, when the currency was heading toward its record low of 82 cents. If the ECB does step in, analysts think it might coordinate an intervention with the Bank of Japan rather than risking going it alone. Several Japanese financial officials expressed concern about the dollar's moves, and the top government spokesman said Japan was ready to intervene as it has done in the past to prop up the dollar.
The United States likely wouldn't join in. Speaking Thursday in Warsaw, Snow repeated the U.S. stance. "I think everybody knows what our position is - the strong dollar, currency values set in open markets," he said. European political leaders have made increasingly agitated remarks about the dollar, which has joined the war in Iraq as an irritant in trans-Atlantic relations. French Finance Minister Nicolas Sarkozy said this week the dollar has become "unhinged" and urged the U.S. to take action.

chicago joe 00:18 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
a nice inverse H&S forming on the usd/jpy?

London. 00:17 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
hk ab dont know who that clown is but this is London

LDN 00:15 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Is hk ab=hkmom,hkson,hkdad,hkgrandpa?

prague jv 00:15 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Thank you jf , very appreciated
gep , I can see what jf said about eur - leader , coz there has been violated level 1.2960 and gbp has similar important level at 1.8470 . coz of it , i wud expect to be eur/gbp allready below 0.70 now .
On other hand , if gbp is trading below 1.8470 and eur/usd above 1.2910 , there is some limitation for eur/gbp downside which in turn is makeing me do not now what to do :>)

London 00:12 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
hk ab :)

hk ab 00:08 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
Is London. = London?

knoxville dan-k 00:07 GMT November 19, 2004 Reply   
thats not hard Dallas, a round room has corners where the floor joins the walls--lol

 




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