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Forex Forum Archive for 11/20/2004

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Stockholm AGuy 19:26 GMT November 20, 2004 Reply   
nyc SA 23:02 GMT November 19: "Cudlow on CNBC saying that the dollar is 15% undervalued"

Presumably he's thinking of PPP (Purchasing Power Parity). There is a good link on it, with a daily updated graph for major currencies, at

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/PPP.html

If you take the weights of the currencies going into the computation of the dollar index, apply them to the figures in that graph, and invert, I guess you'd indeed get something
like 15%.

Unfortunately, this is of little value for short or even medium term trading. PPP over- and overvaluations tend to be very longlived (years).

Stockholm AGuy 19:13 GMT November 20, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 19:10 GMT: $800 BILLION, I mean...

Stockholm AGuy 19:10 GMT November 20, 2004 Reply   
As there has been some discussion - and soothsaying - on the forum about the latest lifting of the federal US debt limit (this time by a whopping $800) here's some weekend reading worth pondering: Texas Republican Ron Paul's speech to Congress on the matter, now online at

http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec2004/cr111804.htm

(What Greenspan thinks about the US debt situation, I don't think anyone here can have misssed.)

prague viktor 17:20 GMT November 20, 2004 Reply   
SANTIAGO (AFX) - Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said the world economy needs a strong dollar, while President George W. Bush said the US remains committed to a policy of dollar strength

During a brief public appearance with Koizumi on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum summit, Bush said he had "explained to him that my nation is committed to a strong dollar." Koizumi replied that a strong dollar is in the interest of both the US and the world economy

cebu praetorian 15:07 GMT November 20, 2004 Reply   
good day traders!!! any data??

Hong Kong Qindex 14:30 GMT November 20, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

nyc grumpy 13:20 GMT November 20, 2004 Reply   
IMHO: Re Larry Kudlow comment: That guy is a dandy eastcoast dye in the wool elitist. He could not have an objective thought if it fell on his head. Pay no atttion to him. Read Robert Rubin instead.


And Robert Rubin is a ... downhome populist? Get real, Rubin is an ex-Goldman,Sachs'er and now a very well paid Citigroup exec. Niot an elitist?

Ha

HK [email protected] 13:09 GMT November 20, 2004 Reply   
Juneau CAR 07:58 GMT November 20, 2004

China urges the US to act on dollar slide, say yuan must wait

SANTIAGO (AFP) - China has turned the tables on the United States, urging Washington to stop the slide of the dollar and restore equilibrium to global currency markets.

"As a major country having ownership to the most important currency in the global economy, I think the United States has the responsibility, as much responsibility as do the others, to act, to take the necessary actions to restore equilibrium in the currency market," Wang Xiaolong, a senior foreign ministry official in charge of economic affairs said.

"It is only wise, given the weight of the US economy in the world markets, it is only wise that they would take into account the concerns of others, as well as the world economy as a whole."


If the chinese will adhere to their mercantilistic economic view in the market environment they are acting, we may see soon the dollar collapsing, where the Americans will care nothing about it.


Hong Kong Qindex 12:13 GMT November 20, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 11:00 GMT November 20, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 09:36 GMT November 20, 2004 Reply   
weekly..some said..EUR

r..1.3107

s..1.2945


saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088 09:26 GMT November 20, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088 11:52 GMT November 4, 2004
Good Morning ..

There is possibility for those who will risk to Sell Usd/chf here not to see 1.2088 next 2 years..

its very optimistic that but why people play forex or casino if they dont risk ?

Thats my opinion and not suggestion..

Have a nice day..
nk

We are very close to be reality..still not safe to bet on Long side..

IMHO

nk

hong kong nt 08:32 GMT November 20, 2004 Reply   
GOLD -- guess we may see consolidation in 433-448 before uptrend continues..

Juneau CAR 07:58 GMT November 20, 2004 Reply   
Rumor has it the US is going to try and jaw bone the chinese into raising the yuan.

IMHO: Re Larry Kudlow comment: That guy is a dandy eastcoast dye in the wool elitist. He could not have an objective thought if it fell on his head. Pay no atttion to him. Read Robert Rubin instead.

US cannot get out from under its debt. It has gone too far.

HK [email protected] 05:45 GMT November 20, 2004 Reply   
If you look at Greeny_span as a day (or few days) trader, you may get him better.

If he has a day trader mind, it simply implies, his close ones are well informed ahead about his speech, taking the right positions.

See him at the next speech.



HK [email protected] 05:18 GMT November 20, 2004 Reply   
Few month ago I posted the message below.

It was a computation and prediction which has worked.
Why do I post it? Because of those short term traders complaining of having hard time in timing the market direction ,entry and exit.

Though I had the accurate target about 445$/Oz.long ago...

The market has driven me out a time B4 it has reached this target, at which was so easy to take profit.

I made a nice profit, but you can't be too happy if the market makes you look a fool in your own eyes.

Such a lost opportunity, may send you lurking for a long time B4 opening a new trade.

So this was my post from July.

HK [email protected] 12:33 GMT July 3, 2004
GOLD on a chart fantasy....This time the current trend may break the 430$/Oz. multi-year Res. On the way to 450$/Oz first.
Though looks like hallucinating on some indicators I could only estimate a target. .....

 




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