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Forex Forum Archive for 11/23/2004

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SanFrancisco TG 23:59 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Minnesota - Well we appear to be on the same page immediate term but I'm looking for $yen to pull up from this retracement.

Syd 23:55 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
British MPs seeking to impeach Blair over his handling of Iraq have tabled a parliamentary motion calling for debate in House of Commons UKpress

London. 23:53 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Bank of England's Lomax Says U.K. Property Market Slowdown `Significant'
Bank of England Deputy Governor Rachel Lomax said the U.K. property market is immersed in a ``significant slowdown'' that, combined with surging oil prices, has led to a highly ``uncertain'' outlook for the economy.
link

London 23:52 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
European Economies: German Growth Slows as Exports Drop
Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Germany's economy, Europe's largest, expanded at the slowest pace in more than a year in the third quarter as exports dropped and consumer spending stagnated. Foreign sales fell 1.1 percent from the second quarter, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. Investment in equipment rose 4.1 percent, while spending by households was unchanged. Total gross domestic product grew 0.1 percent, confirming a Nov. 11 estimate. Germany's growth prospects are dimming as higher oil prices and the euro's climb to a record against the dollar hurt exports and unemployment at a five-year high saps household spending. The International Monetary Fund on Nov. 2 cut its 2005 growth estimate for Germany to 1.5 percent, the worst predicted performance for any of the Group of Seven nations.
We are in a downward phase -- it's more than just a soft patch,'' said Rainer Guntermann, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Frankfurt. ``The stronger euro will put pressure on exports deep into next year.'' The euro's 6 percent appreciation against the dollar in the past two months comes as global growth cools and crimps the exports that pulled Germany out of recession last year. German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder on Nov. 20 described the stronger euro as ``worrying.'' Living With the Euro With U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow showing few signs of sharing Schroeder's concern, exporters may have to live with a further appreciation of the euro. Snow last week said exchange rates are best set by markets and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasts the euro could rise as high as $1.35 in three months. Europe's single currency, which climbed to a record of $1.3074 on Nov. 18, was trading at $1.3054 at 11:45 a.m. in Frankfurt. German consumers are struggling to make up for the shortfall in exports. Unemployment rose for a ninth month in October, keeping the jobless rate at 10.7 percent, as companies including KarstadtQuelle AG, the country's largest department-store operator, and General Motors Corp.'s Opel unit cut jobs. Economists had expected consumer spending to rise 0.2 percent in the third quarter from the second, according to the median of 21 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The Bundesbank yesterday said that households' appetite to raise spending ``will remain subdued for now'' as a 64 percent increase in the price of crude oil in the past 12 months boosts heating costs. Some companies are starting to invest more in equipment and machinery. E.ON AG, Europe's second-largest utility, said Nov. 15 it may build a new 800 million-euro ($1 billion) power plant in northern Germany to replace an older facility. Deutz AG, a maker of diesel engines for trucks and ships, said in September it plans to expand a new assembly facility in Cologne. From a year earlier, Germany's economy expanded 1.3 percent in the three months through September. The country's statistics office doesn't provide annualised figures. From the second quarter, construction investment dropped 0.8 percent and inventories rose, accounting for 1.6 percentage points of growth, the statistics office said. We assume that a lot of companies imported goods now in anticipation of higher raw material costs in the further, that's the only way to explain'' the higher inventories, said Joerg Lueschow, an economist at WestLB in Dusseldorf. The increase in investment suggests ``the economic recovery process hasn't broken off,'' though the transition from an export- led to a domestic recovery ``is tougher than expected,'' the Bundesbank said yesterday.
Economists had expected spending on machinery and equipment to rise 1.8 percent in the third quarter from the previous three- month period, according to the median of 18 forecasts. Rising investment may not signal a turnaround in the domestic economy unless companies start hiring in Germany, said Dresdner's Guntermann and WestLB's Lueschow. Detroit-based General Motors on Oct. 14 said it plans to cut 10,000 jobs at its German factories out of a total 12,000 layoffs for all of Europe. As long as there is no pick up in the job market, then income growth will stay as flat as a pancake,'' said Lueschow. ``I can't see how consumer spending can pick up in that situation.''

Tallinn viies 23:45 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
LA Fxnew 23:40 - higher.

Syd 23:43 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Typical of the funds manipulating the market overnight with no news
Russian central banker comments on possible review of EUR holdings in FX reserves, analysts say move was overdone; Alexei Ulyukayev quoted as saying "the dollar share of foreign reserves won't be reviewed" but EUR share "may be reviewed". This is a non-sequitur as almost all of CBR's holdings are in USD, EUR, it has no intention to change small holdings of minor reserve currencies; another trader says comments are old hat, were an excuse in thin market to push up EUR

LA Fxnew 23:40 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
viies:

whats ur view on usd yen ????
TIA

Syd 23:40 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
J.P. Morgan.
EUR Reaction To Russia News Overdone

Ldn 23:36 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
AUD being marked up, rather than traded up, in reaction to the broader based move in the Euro/USD towards key barrier of 1.31. Real money has been pushed out of the icture. They are unwilling to chase the markets higher, leaving bids well below the market at 7750. If the rally continues it will do so without the support of longer term investors ! 4CAST -FX

Tallinn viies 23:32 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, basically this story says there is limited possibility that dollar fall will go out hand, because reminbi will be cheaper also and this is not good....
2323 GMT [Dow Jones] Blunt words from PBOC's Li have helped calm speculation on when China may revalue CNY, serve as reminder any move will come on Beijing's terms. Li's comments can't claim to represent official view as State Council must put stamp of approval, literally or figuratively, on any policy shift; have also been remarks from other policymakers - including PBOC chief - indicating willingness to discuss CNY. Still, at time rumors about CNY have been fueling volatility in FX markets, Li's unusually candid remarks throw cold water on idea China will suddenly allow CNY to float.(RXM)

Minnesota U-Genius 23:32 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
well, SanFrancisco TG
if u look at 30 or 15 min chart MACD, u will see that after a quick rally it should fall., all of course IMHO

shanghai bc 23:31 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   

Shanghai Motors is buying 70% of GM Rover in Britain..Some more shoppings in Britain is in store as a bridgehead into Euro car market in coming years..Could see some positive flow for Cable in coming weeks.

Tokyo IM 23:29 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
I'll be away for 2 hours, talk to you all latter.

SanFrancisco TG 23:29 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
One thing I do have going for a $yen short is the dollar index is under pressure, but we know $yen can diverge from overall dollar activity.

SanFrancisco TG 23:26 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Minnesota - what are you basing that assessment on I wonder? I currently have $yen & euryen bid but retracing (if thats what we could call it in this peanut butter action) :)

Philadelphia CABA 23:16 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM 23:13 GMT November 23, 2004
Philadelphia CABA 23:10 GMT November 23, 2004//
@134.20

It's seems as really good entry!

Minnesota U-Genius 23:15 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Jpy will short soon, IMHO.

Tokyo IM 23:13 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Philadelphia CABA 23:10 GMT November 23, 2004//
@134.20

Minnesota U-Genius 23:11 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Hello, Looks like a good sell is coming soon on NZD/USD, GT to all

Philadelphia CABA 23:10 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM 23:03 GMT November 23, 2004

Did you already enter long EUR/JPY?

LA Fxnew 23:08 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
anyone could predict where will usd/jpy go for this coming news?

thanks

Tokyo IM 23:03 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
KL KL, that looks preaty good to me. No driver in the Yen and it just swings left and right without following other pairs. On the serious note: I am looking into EUR/JPY getting back to 137+ and this move by YEn is more then welcome.

KL KL 22:50 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM , Good morning...see what happens when Japan on holiday...hope BOJ is awake too. I think they did not set alarm yesterday to remind them that Londan & NY was trading!!

Ldn 22:50 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Daily FX
Canadian Dollar Weaker Despite Oil Surge
http://biz.yahoo.com/censored/041123/1101241313_11412_1.html

Tokyo IM 22:45 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Goodmorning all.

Syd 22:33 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
The U.S. Department of Agriculture said Tuesday a suspected case mad-cow disease, has been confirmed negative

Syd 21:57 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT check out analysis ---->> marketplace --->>>>

NJ RT 21:53 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Syd 21:42
Sorry ...don't get it what is IFR?

KL KL 21:50 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd long +15 at 1.8685 eurusd +7 1.3086....waiting and flat

Brisbane PhD 21:44 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Bht Aud/Usd .7858. Initial stop.7834

Syd 21:42 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 21:34
IFR

Tor Pumpkin 21:41 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
bin laden story an hour and a half old:
EUR/USD has dipped back to 1.3075 into late afternoon trading, mostly on position squaring but there has also been a vague, unconfirmed rumor circulating that Osama bin Laden has been captured or is surrounded and this appears to be
slightly helping the dollar late in the session. This may have stemmed from a report highlighted on http://www.drudgereport.com that the US military has captured a top insurgent commander in Iraq.

NJ RT 21:34 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Where did you find info about bin laden? Can't see it anywhere

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 21:25 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
good luck for 24 nov 2004 everyone.

TIA:-)

London. 21:10 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
A deep downturn in the dollar could have negative consequences for the oil market: A decline in oil consumption as economic growth slows down.

"A crisis of confidence resulting from continued slide in the dollar is not good for financial markets or economic confidence or the real economy in general," said Steve Hanke, professor of Applied Economics at the Johns Hopkins University and a leading authority on financial markets.

Dallas GEP 21:07 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Soory guys tired of messing with it...out at BE on GBP shorts back later

bucharest dan 21:05 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
hi guys, I'm trying to find if 1.11 is the minimum for usd chf ever

Calabash TarHeel 21:01 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 20:59 GMT November 23, 2004
Not hearing anything on CNN yet.

Los Angeles ss 21:00 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
What's this news on bin laden being surrounded? Source?

Dallas GEP 20:59 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
WEll if OBL story confirmed WATCH usd/chf LONG some more

Calabash TarHeel 20:56 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP
Looks like the "Heel" will be bowl bound this year. a minor one, but beats the crap out the toilet bowl for a change.

Gothenburg XON 20:55 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies

My platform confirmes same news of bin laden

Tallinn viies 20:55 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
about possible explosion...
what I dont understand, why option volatilities doesnt pick up.
on FX side they are near lows. also on equity market they are near lows....
doesnt seem to me situation for explosion. BUT charts are ready on the other hand

Dallas GEP 20:54 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Well thought I was thru...shorted GBP @ 1.8670 looking for +20 pipa

KL KL 20:54 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
of course i meant 1.8670 :-o

KL KL 20:53 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
long eurusd 1.3079 gbpusd 1.8570 awake and hope this give me some joy

Tallinn viies 20:52 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Midas reporting "rumour bin laden surronded" :)

Dallas GEP 20:50 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Tarheel, probably with themselves!!! LOL Not sure about how BCS will work out

Calabash TarHeel 20:49 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 20:44 GMT November 23, 2004
Good day Gep! Where will the "Horns" be playing at bowl time.

Stockholm AGuy 20:46 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
EU ZORRO 20:40 GMT:

I can't remember having ever seen the "Akmos Sentiment Indicator" (http://www.akmos.com) this USD bullish before. Food for contrarian thoughts; if small retail specs are this bullish...

Dallas GEP 20:44 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Closed Euro shorts @ +15, Closed usd/chf longs @ +25 pips, closed GBP shorts @ +30 pips. Flat now.

Calabash TarHeel 20:43 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
EU ZORRO 20:40 GMT November 23, 2004
Now you know we already know your thoughts.
Have a good day.
gl,gt

Syd 20:42 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Fed funds futures settle day pricing in about a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Dec. 14 FOMC meeting.

EU ZORRO 20:40 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   

...some feeling here viies...

Tallinn viies 20:39 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
closed my short euro position with -25 pips.
dont like this market.
I think tommorow this explodes. 1,35 within next 48 hours.
lets see.
after NYC close will go long ...
cu later

Calabash TarHeel 20:36 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
wellington am 20:25 GMT November 23, 2004
I don't know about today, but heading into holidays and years end, I do feel that the green eyed monster "Greed" will begin to show his face in the form of serious profit taking. Mix a little fear in with that and the overdue correction could begin. IMVHO.
Yes, I am biased, short aud/$ and eur/$.

wellington am 20:25 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 20:23 GMT November 23, 2004
Well, if yesterday was anything to go on, ozzy selling triggered $ buying across the board. Euro certainly has a toppy feel about it - IMHO.

Calabash TarHeel 20:23 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
wellington am 20:20 GMT November 23, 2004
I would be looking to you for guidance on that question. I am musing that if they are selling their beloved K,roo and Kiwi, can the Euro be far behind.

wellington am 20:20 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 20:13 GMT November 23, 2004
A Bollard/Costello pact perhaps?

Calabash TarHeel 20:13 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
wellington am 20:00 GMT November 23, 2004
First time in in a while that the K'roo and Kiwi have been sold off some in the NZ session.
gt,gl

berlin otto 20:13 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Auckland 19:45 GMT November 23, 2004
berlin otto 19:35 GMT November 23, 2004
I just woke up... I will keep all your possies....
have nice dreams...

I must tell you that sometimes my positions looking bad
or wrong, but in those cases you must place hedge oppsosite
some pips /may be 20 -25 pips/ away from the original transactions. When the predicted positions is on the way, you must closed the hedge opposite.

I wish you good trading and I wish to see all my predictions very rich.

wellington am 20:00 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
the kiwi bird just remembered it couldn't fly.

Dallas GEP 19:59 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
OK 23% 1.8676 FIB point on GBP just printed. Next fib is 1.8649 whicjh is 38%. Conservative shorts should CLOSE here NOW

wellington am 19:57 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
london aas 19:49 GMT November 23, 2004
Yes, you can say that again. I've lost money shorting share indexes while revelling in Bonner's bearishness. But as they say, in then everyone's right - it's just a matter of time. Interesting to note that Chuck from the Daily Phennig is starting to have a bet each way on the Euro - 'what goes up ...'

Dallas GEP 19:50 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Well here is the dip below 1.8690 on GBP/USD ...

london aas 19:49 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
That surprises me about Bill Bonner. He's usually telling everyone to sell usd and buy gold. BTW his stock market predictions have been woeful, to put it mildly. Problem with Daily Reckoning is that they appear to be bearish about everything, always.

Euro; anaemic growth rates and currency will soon push zone into recession IF there is no retrenchment. Will everyone still be buying Euros in recession while selling US with growth rate of 5%? I'd have thought better to look at gbpusd 1.95 long dated calls if you're bearish about usd.

Something's gotta give soonish and I'd be surprised if Euro went on without profit taking/reality check.

Syd 19:46 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Keep pegging Gulf currencies to $US: IMF
Gulf countries should continue to peg their currencies to the US dollar to ease the transition to a planned single currency in the region, an IMF official says.smh

Auckland 19:45 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
berlin otto 19:35 GMT November 23, 2004
I just woke up... I will keep all your possies....
have nice dreams...

berlin otto 19:35 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
One more time my dears,...

I am so tired and I am going to sleep and I hope that
the Japanese, Austrilian and the other sunshine nations
will doing very hard in my direction.

Good luck and good night to all of you.

Dallas GEP 19:28 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Well we are now testing support @ 1.8690 on GBP....While that MAY hold for a brief period on time, it probably will break to the downside within an hour or sooner IMO.

Syd 19:17 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Analysts believe that EUR/USD is far more overvalued than USD/JPY is undervalued
There is one thing to consider, in the past intervention has been a battle of whits, however to have the tactics of lacking in concern can lull the spec traders into a false sense of security until they are loaded over their head in short Dollars agains everything.

SanFrancisco TG 19:04 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone think the thwarted 911 style attack announced in Britain affected Sterling? If not that is telling me the terror risk is practically washed out of the market unless another catastrophe actually succeeds.

London. 19:01 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Recall the GBP hitting over $2. in 1992 and then suddenly hitting the fan, same could happen to the Euro negative news or a word from the almighty powers

London 18:45 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
B.A. BOCA or in the Euro case overvalued !!

London 18:44 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
london aas this is right Euroland in far worse a state with or without the Deficit and soon the strong Euro will show up and everyone will dive for cover, btw the short dollar position are now double of what they were last year.

SanFrancisco TG 18:43 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
The level of my ambition? Manyinstitutional traders will take 10 pips a shot. What if I had multiple lots on that 40 pips? Did you know its a fact that multiple trades within a range adds up to more pips than a single trade in the same range?

Sounds like an ego issue to me.

Omaha Warren 18:37 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
If relief of 40 pips is the level of your ambition, well that clears things up a little. Good luck in your endevours gentlemen.

B.A. BOCA 18:37 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
the question you should be asking is when a declining asset becomes an 'undervaued' asset.

SanFrancisco TG 18:32 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Warren - $yen picked up 40 pips off the figure so I don't think picking up the declining asset is such a bad idea as a blanket approach if you do it right. The best basketball players dribble with both hands I've been told :)

wellington am 18:30 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Omaha Warren 18:23 GMT November 23, 2004
Even the value investors are turning $ bullish for relief rally.

Quoting Bill Bonner from Friday's Daily reckoning:

"On Friday, we started buying dollars in the futures markets, and selling gold."

london aas 18:24 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
despite structural problems in US, is euro really so good? me thinks not and the market will soon have a reality check.

gbpusd call 06/05 looking good.

Omaha Warren 18:23 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Why are you people trying to buy a declining asset ? Astonishing. Be a value investor and just keep shorting sinking instruments like the USD.

Atl TJ 18:22 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
toronto dr unken kat
You may be correct. But I see a line drawn 1.1560 on the Swissy with multiple timeframes all in OS conditions. Leads me to believe that there will be a tradable bounce out of this hole. Is the Swissy trend still down? Of course it is. But not a straight line. If 1.1560 falls I will not Short it because I think there is a strong chance it will be a false break. I still have to Buy Entries neither of which has been hit. 1.1609 and 1.1563. Missed the good one by 2 pips.

Wheaton 18:21 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
A great source of real-time audio FOREX and Futures news is NeedToKnownNews.com. They cover all the major economic releases and even beat the main wires sometimes in reporting the numbers, because they have a correspondent in Washington. It's worth taking a look at.

HAPPY TRADING,

NEWSHOG

Dallas GEP 18:18 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Well Dr. Kat. I have two sets of underwear, no problem

geneva 18:17 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
knoxville dan-k 18:14 GMT November 23, 2004

euro/usd

Dallas GEP 18:17 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
BAsed on FIBS on high thus far of 1.8724 and low of 1.8522....38% retracement SHOULD print 1.8649 (38%) on GBP or 1.8676 (23%).

GER ad 18:15 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD,
Out at 1.3088 (don't like this status quo can go either way)

KL KL 18:14 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
ok set limit sell gbpusd 1.8743 buy usd chf 1.1546....getting rest hopefully Asian session more exciting than now....LOL...Asian seession....maybe with Japan trading things more volotile. gl gt all

knoxville dan-k 18:14 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
geneva, what ccy r u talking about?

toronto dr unken kat 18:08 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
there s no reversal fellaz but still strong trend up
youre most likely gonne get cought with your panties down

swiss down to 1530

Geneva 18:07 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
117 is minimum target possible 107. and its not wishfull thinking. 1.50 in 2 years.

knoxville dan-k 18:06 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
well are any signs of intervention on the horizion for today?

Atl TJ 18:02 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
knoxville dan-k
I think we are all waiting and watching to see if these levels will create a bounce or collapse. My best guess is that they will hold and turn the chart at least for the very short term.

Dallas GEP 18:01 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Well DAn I still think CHF is the key, it longs up and usd bulls will appear

to dr.unken kat 18:01 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Geneva really? 117? you probably hungry try this for your wishful thinking
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=19270&item=5537253428&rd=1

knoxville dan-k 17:55 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
opnions, the fat lady hasnt sang yet humm

knoxville dan-k 17:54 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
eurusd just dont want to back off that 131.00 much does it

Wien GD 17:50 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP ... think oil will decide ... back above 50

Geneva 17:50 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Euro top is at hand, a corrcting move back to 1.17 will follow.

KL KL 17:45 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
fwiw I am still going to sell gbpusd just waiting for the spike bar that more than this current 5-6 pips on short term time frame...maybe 10-15 if seen. Looks like exhaustion playing out here. The same with usdchf....waiting

Dallas GEP 17:44 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
OK euro, swiss and gbp all at reversal points . MAy or may not do it. IMO chances are it will reverse but market will decide that as usual. I think CHF is the leading indicator at this time.

Chicago Irish 17:39 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Hmmm.........Ukrainian version of 2000 US Presidential election.......hanging Vlad's?

houston st 17:38 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   

25 bid here...

Dallas GEP 17:37 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
KL Dammm my high has been 1,8723 bid

Atl TJ 17:37 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Since the Ukraine is taking a page out of the US Elections playbook, does anybody have a clue as to the effect on the EURO?
And what effect will the Russian debt to the EZ have on the Euro if this thing gets a little testy?

KL KL 17:33 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
rats short taken at 1.8728

Atl TJ 17:33 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG

Keep an eye on Swissy. If it is going to go it should do it from the 1.1550 area. If 1.1550 breaks then its SOS (Same Ole *&%#).

AMF Danny Boy!!!!!

Dallas GEP 17:32 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
OK longed usd/chf @ 1.1565 with 15 pip stop

SanFrancisco TG 17:28 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Very close to picking up $cad and $yen again but really would like to see 1150 and 103.30.

SanFrancisco TG 17:26 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
ok, that was a little off currency :)

Dallas GEP 17:25 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
TG, quite frankly I have NEVER liked Rather, It goes back to the Chronkite days. He did not want Rather to succeed him either so that should have told them something.

GER ad 17:19 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Short EUR/USD at 1.3101 tight S/L

Dallas GEP 17:12 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Average traded on GBP is 1.8700, Sell levels on the way up are 1.8694, 1.8707, 1.8715 and 1,8725. GBP could test highs again

Los Angeles ss 17:12 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Gep -- in short with you as well. Can't believe this won't retrace a good bit from this point.

KL KL 17:10 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
alright calvary arriving to give you a hand GEP ...angrily and sneekingly short gbpusd 1.8718..

Dallas GEP 16:56 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Took some more GBP short @ 1.8707 stops on all 1.8731

Philadelphia CABA 16:47 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Bought usdchf @ 1.1593

GOES B747 16:45 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
"Poland-Iraq-politics-ties
WARSAW - 16:09 GMT
Warsaw, Baghdad to sign twin-city agreement"

what about Geneva and Fallujah??

Philadelphia CABA 16:41 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:38 GMT November 23, 2004
CABA, patience will get you 1.3040 at least

yepp, patience, that's all I need...thanks GEP, must learn..

SanFrancisco TG 16:38 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
I want to see 1865 at least again before I consider picking up $cad again.

Dallas GEP 16:38 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
CABA, patience will get you 1.3040 at least

Dallas GEP 16:37 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Maybe a little early but short now on GBP/USD 1.8694

SanFrancisco TG 16:36 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
EurChf liquidity has experienced some spotty conviction in NY, consequently probabilities improve for better conviction in Asia or London if not.

GER ad 16:35 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Austin rb 15:58,
Before you begin to trade USD/CHF you need to learn to read the cross EUR/CHF (most of the time a good indicator) IMHO.

berlin otto 16:32 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Ok, guys, /girls no one here/ I am back,
and I am not shocked that the market is going some pips away from my sugestions.

Ok, now coming soon in my teritory.
Keep the discipline!

GOES B747 16:32 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD stands on a springboard and waiting for the pool to get full

gt all

Philadelphia CABA 16:31 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
1.3050-60 area?

Philadelphia CABA 16:29 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP, what's your TP level for EURUSD short, please? Thanks.

Dallas GEP 16:26 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Well RB, technically the help forum especially when ccy's are moving like this but here is OK when we slow down

Atl TJ 16:22 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 16:13 GMT November 23, 2004
I think that Goose and Yen still have room to advance albeit a little more slowly. Think the key may be found in the EURJPY. If that pair doesn't take a dive then Yen will drift higher. As far as Swissy goes it looks like I may have missed that Long entry but 3 pips. Ouch!! If so I will wait for a move above 1.1605 to enter Long with a target in the 1.1660 area.

Moscow Vasya 16:21 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Interesting that after loosing some pips, people start thinking in long term, when everything goes normal, they use to watch within intraday only.

Austin rb 16:21 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP

Thanks is this the right forum to ask this

Dallas GEP 16:18 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
RB, CHF is a good pair for that YES. More details later

Gothenburg XON 16:14 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Cable looks fishy, any view on direction ?

Dallas GEP 16:14 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Well GBP shorts @ 1.8715 would be excellent in my view

SanFrancisco TG 16:13 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
We're getting our retracements from the bids in $yen and $cad as expected, $chf still offered (sold) overall. Probabilities are $ selling shouldn't last worth much consequence for remainder of day.

River Falls_USA_ PB 16:11 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:02 GMT November 23, 2004 ///yup, mine hit 3101 (bid) 3104 (ask) gt

Dallas GEP 16:10 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
stop on EURO short now @ 1,3115

SF LongView 16:09 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Global-View GVI 16:02 GMT November 23, 2004

Thanks a lot for that update, GVI! I missed 'Mr. Yen's revised forecast. Well, thankfully, I didn't go along with Sakaibara's forecast back in May. I shorted USD/JPY around 109.80 and took profit recently at 104.50. I was lucky on that one!

Dallas GEP 16:08 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Well options also @ 1.3110, 1.3125 1.3150 on EURO

L.A. Igrok 16:03 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Within 1.3282-1.3355 range. Most likely not in the middle but exactly or very close to one of those levels.

Global-View GVI 16:02 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Longview, note this is from the GVI October 21, 2004 STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open

Former top currency bureaucrat (Mr. Yen) and frequent government critic, Sakakibara said that the $/yen is headed straight for 100 and that the Ministry of Finance will not direct intervention until that level is reached. He also said that there will be no activity until after the U.S. election.

Dallas GEP 16:02 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Well just having discussions about that option. Depending on platform I know that a price can be hit and you can be left IN possie if price action immediately retreats like it just did but in cases of an option, if it is hit, it should be gone so I don't know. Not sure what interbank rate hit 1.3100 or not but the three platforms I see ALL hit 1.3100

hk ab 16:00 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
747, I am just so tired today. Sorry, night night.

SF LongView 15:59 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
L.A. Igrok 15:03 GMT November 23, 2004
L.A. Igrok 15:24 GMT November 23, 2004

Interesting, Igrok! A 120 USD/JPY rate is what "Mr. Yen" (Eisuke Sakakibara) forecasted, back in May, for the last quarter of 2004. He made the forecast back then based on his assumption that Japanese growth had peaked in the second quarter. His target for the USD/JPY rate is patently wrong so far. Well, let's see what the future brings!

GL and GT!

Austin rb 15:58 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas gep

Do you think the usd/chf is a good pair for new forex trader to trade it seems to me it trades smoother without the spikes of gbp and seems to get more pips on a move than eur. Appreciate your opinion and enjoy your posts. thanks

GOES B747 15:58 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 15:56 GMT November 23, 2004

will you be surprised to find that 1.3100 option holder was a USD bull?

gt

hk ab 15:56 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
That 1.31 option holder should be smoked a lot.

GOES B747 15:55 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
looks that sharks are meeting something much larger/stronger than they were dreaming about...the way got just open for USD party.

placed EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY short orders (135.75 & 194.10)

gt all

Helsinki iw 15:55 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Id like to know as well Igrok.

Dallas GEP 15:53 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Shorted 1.3096 on EURO 1.3110 stop

Dallas GEP 15:51 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
One other note: sometimes is is best to enter a possie by watching another pair and then entering your positon based where that OTHER pair is trading, For example: If you are wanring to short EURO, watch USD/CHF. When USD/CHF is near it's LOWS again THEN that would be good entry for EUR/USD short (around 1.1565)

Atl TJ 15:51 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
EURJPY looks like it may have run its course for this move. Flat to down should prevail for a few hours until techs can catch up. As far as the Goose is concerned I am ready to pull out the Double Barrel 12 Gauge and make a new goose feather pillow for Christmas. That censored bird gets within 5 pips of my entry target and leaves without me on a regular basis recently. Shot the censored thing!!!! LOL

NYC NYC 15:49 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Igrok. Could you let us know what is projected?

GENEVA FHR 15:49 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Igrok so what is the top in your opinion

toronto Dr Unken Katt 15:47 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
EURO-YEN: One trader eyeing US and Canadian names as recent active buyers of the pair.

L.A. Igrok 15:46 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
NYC NYC/// I said that the top of the current trend can be projected by making simple calculations using that diamond.

Dallas GEP 15:45 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Well for those that are watching both usd/jpy long and eur/usd long at the same time. Several reasons. ONE, eur/jpy longs are in play as well as usd/chf shorts. My umderstanding is that 1.3100 option is VERY large so chances are pretty good that will hold for now.

SanFrancisco TG 15:45 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Have a sense now its time again to let $Cad, $yen pull back a little bit before another purchase, and let $chf finish its weakness. Should take too long.

NYC NYC 15:43 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Igrok, what does your last post on the eur/usd imply?

L.A. Igrok 15:38 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
I guess that the point of symmetry of a diamond that was formed on the EUR/USD in Jan-Apr of 2003 will indicate the midpoint of the entire trend.

beirut jb 15:36 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
hi traders

what a day for the yrn

sqeez mode may triger if 10370 tested again and taken

SanFrancisco TG 15:35 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
$Cad and $yen longs were right on target, $chf not gathering wind for some reason, nice job on that TJ.

GOES B747 15:34 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
thank you all or the comments/corrections/views; what I know is that I paid $6K for EUR/USD PUT 1.2750 (17/DEC/2004) option.

let's see what tomorrow will bring and my target for this postion is $40K around 7/DEC/2004; and this actually the bottom line.

if I will lose, it will not be my first lose; if I will make profit, it will not be my first profit...so, I promise you all to post what will be actual amount (even a zero) when I will take the step to close this specific position/trade.

gt all

knoxville dan-k 15:33 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
anyone know where the strength on the usdjpy is coming from? do we have a intervention or is spec accounts wanting it higher to re short for lower targets?

knoxville dan-k 15:31 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
thats a little strange isnt it?

NYC CS 15:28 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
B747 - just in case it isn't obvious, Pumpkin and my price are 1 pip apart

Halifax CB 15:27 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
hmmm, is EURUSD is now the laggart of USDJPY & EURJPY ?

River Falls_USA_ PB 15:26 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 15:04 GMT November 23, 2004/// fwiw the option strategy you are using may be a good one, but that put will not move pip for pip to the underlying currency pair. Out of the money options don't work that way. The value of that option (because you own it) will decay over time...more rapidly as it approaches expiration. That is why FHR was also talking about delta and value - a whole other realtionship between underlying price of the currency pair and corresponding value of the option. That is why your estimate of 600% is impossible to attain. gt/gl

Tor Pumpkin 15:24 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 14:25
your analytics are completely wrong. I estimate your option, if spot were 1.2875 on Dec 7 will be 28 pips (assuming no significant change in vol).

L.A. Igrok 15:24 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim/// I don't know when. It seems like if 101.30 holds then the line drawn through the tops of 1998 and 2002 becomes a natural target.

NYC CS 15:16 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
B747 - if Eur/USD is 1.2875 on 07Dec2004, your 1.275 Euro Put/USD Call expiry 17Dec2004 should be worth about $2,900 USD for every 1mm Euro notional assuming implied vol does nothing, which is not a bad assumption.

It's currently worth $1,900 USD.

hue 123 15:13 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
hello all

hk mom 15:12 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
welcome the BOJ

Bruxville Jim 15:12 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
L.A. Igrok// When do you anticipate a break out of 100/120 range?

SanFrancisco TG 15:09 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Thanks TJ.

Philadelphia CABA 15:07 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Sold EUR/USD @ 1.3085

Spotforex NY 15:07 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Igrok..that would be a very nice risk/reward in your yen suggestion.

happy hunting.

GOES B747 15:04 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
fhr, why to talk when all we have to do is to wait?!


gt

L.A. Igrok 15:03 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
I assume the USD/JPY will be unable to break below 101.25-30 this time. I also suppose that we have a good chance to see 120.00 before 100.00.

Atl TJ 15:00 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 14:54 GMT November 23, 2004

I am going to wait for USDCHF to get to my level which is in the 1.1550 - 60 area then make a decision. If it gets there.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:59 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 04:48 GMT November 23, 2004
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : ...............................The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is positioning at 1.8636 and the neutral zone is 1.8544 - 1.8728. .....................................

GENEVA FHR 14:58 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Goes No way you option is going to be worth 200 pips the price shall be around 60 pips

SanFrancisco TG 14:54 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
long $chf from 90 and $yen from 15 +/- look like finally may carry some weight for a little bit. Question of wether or not you want to risk it. Any thoughts?

GOES B747 14:52 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
GENEVA FHR 14:30 GMT November 23, 2004

anyway, I do not understand you but actually do not care; bottom line is $3K goes $20K if EUR/USD hit 1.2875 @ 07/DEC/2004 or before.

go and take care of dictator's money all around your city/town!

gt

jkt-aye 14:45 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
EUR ... from my pivot model, there is a sign that within this week target on up move is 1.3111. If we can't see this level this week, suggest to find Gecko/Valdez/Qindex car and follow where it goes. imo. Happy hunting.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:42 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Philadelphia CABA 14:37 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
GER ad 14:07 GMT November 23, 2004
Philadelphia CABA 14:01,
I have some support at 1.3060 (and I was lucky to sell at the top...) thinking to resell at 1.3085+.
Yepp, you're right. Just closed my short from 1.3084 (+5), looking reestablish short too.

GENEVA FHR 14:30 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
If your work with the delta that mean for every big figure your option if going to increase in value by 15 pips.Of course
you lose time as the remaining time value is only 10 days so i cannot tell you exactly what this option will be worth.

GOES B747 14:25 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
GENEVA FHR 14:22 GMT November 23, 2004

please enlighten me; let's say that EUR/USD stands @ 1.2875 on/during 07/DEC/2004 (I mentioned this date or before!), what will be the value of the option then?

tia & gt

GENEVA FHR 14:22 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
The real price for the 17.12 Put 1.2750 is 22-26 so it should be 2'600 US$ per Mio. delta is 15.06 so there is noway that if
euro goes back to 1.29 at this option is goign up 600%

GOES B747 14:20 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
it is 'labor thanksgiving day' in Japan, will day they act tomorrow to make sure that their work wll pay better?

gt

berlin otto 14:20 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Ok, my new recomendation is:

sell gbpusd at 1,8677 target 1,8600
in next 12-24 hours

sell eurusd at 1,3069 target 1,3020

ok and my little swiss franc

buy usdchf 1,1591 target 1,1650

Be patient, you must place hedge opposite!

knoxville dan-k 14:16 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
yep got it ty.

GOES B747 14:15 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
knoxville dan-k 14:03 GMT November 23, 2004

mean 3'000 not 300

sorry for the mistype & gt

knoxville dan-k 14:13 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
k, was comparing to stock options ty.

GOES B747 14:13 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
knoxville dan-k 14:03 GMT November 23, 2004

i.e.: every USD 1M PUT option @ 1.2750 (per 17/DEC/2004) cost USD 300...with current market it looks like throwing money for nothing :-)

gt

GOES B747 14:11 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
knoxville dan-k 14:03 GMT November 23, 2004

3:1'000

gt

Los Angeles ss 14:08 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Any thoughts on cable short term, retracement to what level?

GER ad 14:07 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Philadelphia CABA 14:01,
I have some support at 1.3060 (and I was lucky to sell at the top...) thinking to resell at 1.3085+.

knoxville dan-k 14:03 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Goes, what does it cost u to place that dec 7 strike

Philadelphia CABA 14:01 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
GER ad 13:59 GMT November 23, 2004
EUR/USD,
Out at 1.3067


it's seems to early..I'll wait..

GOES B747 14:01 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
took EUR/USD PUT @ 17/DEC/2004 strike 1.2750

very cheap buy, if will go below 1.2900 before 07/DEC/2004 it will mean 600% over the bet.


gt all

berlin otto 14:00 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Ok, guys, girls/? is anybody here?/

I recomended you the right way:

buy gbpusd 1,8540 target 1,8610 +70 pips or more
buy eurusd 1,3020 target 1,3070 +50 pips or more
sell usdchf 1,1640 target 1,1580 +60 or few more

Ok, I know that each of you have a specific way of trading,
but you now see that mine is EXCELLENT!


van Gecko 14:00 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
2 weeks after pushing above the 1.2930 euro all time high & its still only 130 pips above this high water marker.. a market that is suppose to be blasting up to 1.35 shouldn't be stay glued to a major level for weeks.. a close below 1.2950 this week could spoil the Thanksgiving turkey dinner appetite for some top heavy overloaded bulls..
cheerios..

GER ad 13:59 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD,
Out at 1.3067

Hong Kong Qindex 13:56 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:13 GMT November 23, 2004
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : .......................... The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is positioning at 1.3053 and the neutral zone is at 1.2999 - 1.3105. .....................................

Santo Domingo tht 13:31 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD acceleration points appreciated above 1.3150 TIA

GOES B747 13:29 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 13:22 GMT November 23, 2004

looks right, I think the words for the move will come out when USD will gain 2%-4% against the other ccys (next 21-42 days).

gt all

NJ RT 13:22 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Short EUR/USD at 1.3087

Sydney gvm 13:22 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
I think CBs globally quitely agreed last weekend that getting US deficits down [or at least manageable] is #1 priority. With likely global slowing in next 12 months now is a good time to do it as impact on iterest rates wont be as bad and they can all blame each other in a maintain status quo spin

Bris TW 13:20 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 13:18 GMT November 23, 2004
Its already been seen today.

What is your view?

NJ RT 13:18 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
any target on a eur/usd bottom today?

SanFrancisco TG 13:15 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
I've done nothing but short USD from earlier with a close call on a consideration only of $Yen long near the 103 figure. Everything is still short $ in my view at the moment. Spot gold also still long.

Bris TW 13:12 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 13:10 GMT November 23, 2004

No thanks. I will just add to the car collection.

Sydney gvm 13:10 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
sell dollars wear diamonds

Halifax CB 13:09 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Might want to keep an eye on the Eur/Jpy cross. It's in a triangle formation, trading close to the bottom but apparently well supported (i.e. relative Eur strength); Eur/Usd and Eur/Jpy seem to be running a bit ahead of USD/JPY, so going the opposite way in Usd/Jpy after significant moves in the Eur/$ has been working ok. For now. (but I'm pretty closed down for the day). GL/GT.

GER ad 12:56 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Short EUR/USD at 1.3091 tight S/L (the overnite low could be seen in 24 hours again IMHO)

knoxville dan-k 12:55 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
yea, thank you so i see--lol short at 102.90

Sydney gvm 12:55 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
$/Swiss right on 8 hour RSI support now - break here and it goes big lower - IMHO - GL/GT

Bris TW 12:54 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
knoxville dan-k 12:50 GMT November 23
Between 102.68 and 102.14 if the rest of the session stays the same. You will need a fair stop +50 because you WILL be whipsawed

Sydney gvm 12:52 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
knoxville dan-k 12:50 GMT November 23, 2004
any target on a usdjpy bottom today?

102.25

Sydney gvm 12:51 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Dont expect to see intervention [concerted] anytime soon

knoxville dan-k 12:50 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
any target on a usdjpy bottom today?

Quebec Swap 12:48 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Closed my long EUR/USD

Out for now, until a clearer picture is made out. but this holiday week could mean the large move has already passed.

Sydney gvm 12:47 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Syd 12:39 GMT November 23, 2004
I would imagine this is classed as dissorderly !!

mate - how many trending markets have YOU been involved in?.........

SanFrancisco TG 12:45 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Well that was a quick toss of the bid for $yen. Fine with me, I'll take it lower.

Bris TW 12:45 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Raising Cable stops from 1.8070 to 1.8650. After 1.88 target complete stops will be trailed 50.

Will take rest of year off after complete.

Sydney gvm 12:42 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Next stop DXZ4 : 81.70

GOES B747 12:40 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 12:35 GMT November 23, 2004

do not have an own call yet; the rates difference is a gift and using the right leverage (1:7.5) looks like 25%-30% net/net (at least) maker for every 184 days without too many risks.

gt all

Sydney gvm 12:40 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
remember guys and gals - when the market is in a range - all the indicators work - including Long/short figures on futures - but when the trend is bvious - DONT STAND ON THE TRACKS

Syd 12:39 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
I would imagine this is classed as dissorderly !!

GOES B747 12:37 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
cannot stop the greed factor; took EUR/USD short @ 1.3085
placed order to short again @ 1.3110 and 1.3140; full s/l @ 1.3190

initial target set for 200pips

gt all

Bruxville Jim 12:35 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747// Used NZD/JPY for some decent quick intraweek pips early in the summer. Quit trading it when it started wild swings.
Just pulled up its chart. Looks somewhat stalling ahead of 74.
I'd say it can easliy breach this uptrend T/L from June 2004 by a hundred of pips, then turn, and reach 75 again. Just a wild guess.
What's your take?

SanFrancisco TG 12:34 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
$Yen is bid above the figure, feels like the market doesn't feel to happy about the idea of testing below right now. Expecting the bid to stick but run into pressure the further from 103 it gets.

Dallas GEP 12:34 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Well 3080 option is gone, eyeing 1.31

Gen dk 12:33 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 12:32 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
stop now 3110 on eur shorts

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:30 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
eurcad short here

Sydney gvm 12:27 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast - shorting Aussie @ +80 good money after bad IMHO - GL/GT

Sydney gvm 12:25 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
23 Oct low in Swissy was referring to RSI low not price low FYG

gold coast martin 12:25 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   


Calabash TarHeel 12:15 GMT November 23, 2004
A repeat of last years action....aussie gets up to late 70s and exporter lobby lean on govnt to voice its cause...also RBA at these levels always come out and sell aussie with the pretense of balancing the treasure when in fact it is a jap style intervention...they only act when aussie is at these levels....i see aussie at these present levels as just about the top for the year... i kind of hope it gets to 80 though in the next 7 days as the fall will be greater and a better entry level will be on offer....g/t and good thanksgiving....

Sydney gvm 12:24 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
I agree with some earlier comment that Swissy is leader. Looking at 8 hour RSI - close to breaking on downside the divergent strength from 23 Oct low - $ bearish IMHO - but not broken yet - next hour will inform short term

Calabash TarHeel 12:15 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 11:22 GMT November 23, 2004
Hello Martin, if you are still around, do you see this current run up on aud getting much above .7930/50. I don't.
Thanks

GOES B747 12:15 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim;

thank you for the information, it is too early to think as I am still checking. do you have any trading expirience with this pair?


gt all

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:14 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Kind of doing this today

EURUSD 1.3082 1.2893 Buy
USDJPY 104.0145 102.7162 Sell
GBPUSD 1.8642 1.8465 Buy
USDCHF 1.1761 1.1576 Sell
EURCHF 1.5732 1.4966 Sell
AUDUSD 0.7872 0.7733 Buy
USDCAD 1.1983 1.1794 Sell
NZDUSD 0.7155 0.6999 Buy
EURGBP 0.7029 0.6983 Buy
EURJPY 134.9066 133.9338 Buy
GBPJPY 192.1893 190.9881 Hold
CHFJPY 88.9284 88.1696 Buy
GBPCHF 2.1710 2.1570 Sell
EURAUD 1.6741 1.6606 Sell
EURCAD 1.5506 1.5415 Sell
AUDCAD 0.9318 0.9229 Hold
AUDJPY 80.9771 80.0847 Buy

london aas 12:14 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
sydney gvm eur must break 1.3070 decisively to invalidate scenario.more likely to retrench to 1.2990 then see it fall to 1.2750 with rally next week. does a bull market ascend in a straight line? as for wall of worry; i seem to be the only one worrying.

Bruxville Jim 12:14 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Wanna take a carry?

Bruxville Jim 12:12 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
GOES// The lowest I've ever seen on this was 8 pts at censored company (6FT).
What think?

KL KL 12:09 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba , oh I see....same old game all these banks and banks related economist play....a con job...tells you of crash so you lock in the prevailing interest rates...saying rates going up will cause the house crash...in reality they have already seen that rates will fall and higher rates are the cause of crash...like higher oil. Their job is to lock you in on a term rate 3-5 years....so they continue to exist!!

fwiw I think after several attempts at gbpusd 1.87 it will crack nicely but limited by 1.8768.....my traps are set there all around this figure...going to nap till NY

Dallas GEP 12:04 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
YES CABA IF the charts support it at that time. I will post it here

Sydney gvm 12:02 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
london aas - what indicators are you using to determine an imminent crash in the euro - me thinks you are part of the 'wall of worry' a bull market always entertains - cu @ 133
GL/GT

Philadelphia Caba 12:00 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 11:57 GMT November 23, 2004
Well CABA,,,eur/gbp should find a base around 6980
will you take long from that area?

GOES B747 12:00 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
good afternoon,

does anyone have expirience with NZD/JPY?
what is the the optimal spread possible to get for this pair?

tia and gt


london aas 11:59 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Seeing big correction on eur. Double top get out. Even in runs there are retrenchments/profit taking. Now's the time IMHO.

manila stubbs 11:58 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 11:57 GMT November 23, 2004

sorry just read your message

manila stubbs 11:57 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
dallas gep - your targets for eurgbp yesterday were reached werent they? you think this still has room to go down to 0.6950 area or will it retreat back to 0.7030 area? because i missed my longs for gbp$ and im refraining from buying now because im waiting for lower prices. TIA

Dallas GEP 11:57 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Well CABA,,,eur/gbp should find a base around 6980

Philadelphia Caba 11:56 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
KL .....it's about "UK housing market crash"...

Philadelphia Caba 11:55 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Good morning everyone & GT!
GEP may I ask you on view EUR/GBP ? (great call yesterday, I need more patience....) Thanks.

KL KL 11:54 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Ldn, equties, currency, commodity, financial....crash...which one?? Just warning...so don't worry...like chit chat Trichet say will intervene on euro!! Warning

london aas 11:54 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
House prices will only crash when the last bear throws in the towel. ie not yet.

Quebec Swap 11:54 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Still holding my long EUR/USD. I'm thinking it'll break 1.3080 but that would only be after NY open.

Dallas GEP 11:53 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
KL eur/gbp shorts are pushing gbp long try chf long or euro short

KL KL 11:51 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
rats short gbpusd taken..ok will try again soon -7 is not good

Ldn 11:49 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Deutsche House Crash Warning anyone hear anything about that

Dallas GEP 11:45 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
1.3067 short with 1.3087 stop...try for 20+ pips

KL KL 11:43 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd again 1.8690 sl 7 above

Miami fleon 11:42 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
PUNJAB 11:19 GMT November 23, 2004

Thanks PUNJAB

KL KL 11:38 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd at 1.8678 +21...don't like it stalling here....phew

KL KL 11:35 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
out usdchf +4 better focus on gbpusd ...two eyes now on one item!!!

gold coast martin 11:26 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 11:24 GMT November 23, 2004
Only admit defeat if wrong ON TIMEFRAME by 31st of dec....until then still have time to adjust TIMEFRAME ONLY....NOT TARGETS.....G/T

Moscow Vasya 11:26 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Budapesht - that's cuz im testing how my new indicators work, problem that they show "stop buy" on gbp and dont show such stop on jpy, will see how it turns.

KL KL 11:25 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
long usdchf 1.1596....now the other eye and hand on trigger for gbpusd short...this time surely ,more than one pip cos ninja is ANGRY

Sydney gvm 11:24 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast - am I right in assuming you admit defeat at Dec31 on current view or are you flexible?

Halifax CB 11:24 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Well, I just closed the last of my various USD shorts; finally a decent nights work. The most interesting was the USDJPY & how it lagged the others by maybe half an hour or so (or at least seem to) on the way up & down. GL/GT...

Syd 11:23 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Survey of client flow data and order books suggest "air is getting thinner as the EUR rises," investors have now established long EUR positions or hedged and risks of temporary pullback is on the rise,says DRKW.

gold coast martin 11:22 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Syd 11:17 GMT November 23, 2004
The more extreme the stretch the higher the risk /reward future ratio becomes...position trading only....g/t

Dallas GEP 11:21 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Option barriers at 1.3080 and 1.3100 abd at 1.8700 on GBP supposedly. IMO GBP might break, euro will not

melbourne farmacia 11:21 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML - 1.8700 - linear resistance, followed by 1.8751.
Usually hard work breaking these R lines...so scaling out now, run rest on fig break if seen.

Budapest Daniel 11:19 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Moscow, you're thinking too much.......

PUNJAB 11:19 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Miami fleon 11:09 GMT November 23, 2004

I realy agree with u :@

Ldn 11:19 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Dollar movement on Russian central banker comments about possible review of euro holdings in forex reserves is likely exaggerated. Reuters quotes Alexei Ulyukayev as saying "the dollar share of foreign reserves won't be reviewed," adding that the euro share "may be reviewed". This is a non-sequitur, as almost all of the CBR's holdings are in dollars and euros, and it has no intention to change its small holdings of minor reserve currencies. plus its been reported a week ago just an exuse to move the market

Syd 11:17 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin extremely stretched at present

london aas 11:17 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
gbp in solid channel to 1.8710. eurusd difficult. If all are afraid of buying usd then market is pretty untradable.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:17 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
ML good to see you around I was kind of a sleep when my bells and whistles woke me up and stuck my neck out to see what was all the commotion with the dollar. Looks like cable hit a good pivot point around the 8515-25 area and now is trying to push through the resistance point at 8700-10 area. I believe that the bulls are on the loose now and if this resistance is taken out then we can see topside tested around your level 8740 to 8780 IMO. Anyway though I give you my 2 cents worth before it becomes any cheaper LOL IMHO. Have a good one now back to my dreams. GL GT

KL KL 11:16 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
short 1.8699 sl 7 above

Helsinki iw 11:15 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Well, sellers still obviously on top in EUR/USD but the overall picture still remains the same to me. Cable is the best performing USD pair today and could have another 100 pips or so to go easily. Above 1.8770/80 would target 1.90. AUD 80 cents soon. IMHO

Bruxville Jim 11:15 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Miami fleon// ROFL

KL KL 11:14 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
nah nah got 1 pip gain eat my dust gbpusd...that was quick will reshort soon! notice how quick it retreats...must be lots of stop loss building here...good. The tactic is to wait for higher high and then take the short quickly and profit quickly. I should have taken the 9 pips on offer but eyes got distracted for less than 10 secs and it was there at my sl. Good SL automation working...can start setting my traps now

Calabash TarHeel 11:13 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Well, let's see, sold some Aud/$ .7845, selling some more @ .7888 if seen. No s/l or t/p yet.
gl,gt

KL KL 11:09 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
locking in my 1 pip and hope it drops like a stone now gbpusd!!!

Miami fleon 11:09 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
KL
I like your style of trading ...I think it is the only way to survive in this market .You are so good finding entry and exit points. I really enjoy your posts
Thanks to put them

KL KL 11:07 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
out at 1.8690 SAR short here +24...still think stop hunt in progress based on price action

Moscow Vasya 11:05 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Now i think its a top for gbp, but dont wait for a fast rebounce.

bandung mbonky 11:05 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
another day of laughs n cries stops and limits

Dallas GEP 11:04 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Well my view on USD/JPY appeared to be correct but I bailed out on it WAY too early as posted.

KL KL 11:03 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
ok in long gbpusd at 1.8665 sl 7 below good...locking in 1 pip gain and setting sl here. Looks like going for ko options at 1.87...when you can't beat them join them!!

gold coast martin 11:03 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Syd 10:59 GMT November 23, 2004
Yes syd......thanks for correction....g/t

ICT ML 11:02 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia what type a TP target would you have now on cable long ? Thin as it seems to be, think 1.8740 or higher today?

Helsinki iw 11:00 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Must say Im a bit confounded how well the dollar is holding up, eventhough we have seen the Al Greenspan, BOC, SNB and now the Russians among others dropping hints as to what is the desirable way of the greenback. Or maybe traders are just slow? Hopefully a break of the top at 1.3070 will see increased momentum. Personally see 132ish a resistance, but the target should be 1.3475/85, which could be quite strong, at least temporarily. If it breaks we should trade closer to 1.40.

Syd 10:59 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin you mean a sell?? right

Moscow Vasya 10:58 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
While gbp rests its time for jpy to rise

gold coast martin 10:56 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
london xyz 10:54 GMT November 23, 2004
Without arguing the point yes....anything over 77aussie and 69 aussie is a buy for me,,,,,,,g/t

knoxville dan-k 10:55 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
well took aud/usd long @ 7800 out at 7842 made back a few of those usd/jpy chi-pip-pies whew

KL KL 10:54 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
OK wounds licked now looking to re-short cable on its next up to 1.866x 7x...if seen. I just cannot have the confidence to long it at this height...my pips loss are max to 10 and I have made a few today. ready and waiting

london xyz 10:54 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin

seriously...

still holding 59c end of year aud target?

54c kiwi?


Moscow Vasya 10:54 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
its right time to close your opened buy on gbp if u had it, dont think there'll be deep bounce back

NewYork frankie 10:53 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
I hope everyone is playing it safe this morning and hasn't fallen for the "hey, look over there" routine while these stop hunters devour everyone's stops. Best to stay out if you are new and wait for next week. GTs

bandung mbonky 10:49 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
thank GOD my long eur/usd at 13014 lq at 13050. thks for the support anyway.
could it be the right time to short gbp??? cant wait...

melbourne farmacia 10:46 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Nice cable re-balance .. R @ 1.8700. GT

gold coast martin 10:44 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 10:40 GMT November 23, 2004
KL...Thin liquidity like we have know send pip traders to a quick grave...best to rest and fight friday...g/t

Moscow Vasya 10:44 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
looks like gbp short 's coming

London Zappy 10:44 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Oh yeah, I forgot, it must be the strong dollar policy ;)

PUNJAB 10:43 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 10:31 GMT November 23, 2004
short gbpusd 1.8642
WISH U ALL THE BEST WITH THIS TRADE
UR SO FAST MAY BE U DONT CHK SIGNALS OR DATA U JUST TAKE sHORT ON THAT I THNIK IT BATTER TO GET SHORT FROM NOW
WHAT U THINK

KL KL 10:40 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
whopps short gbpusd taken

Hong Kong Qindex 10:37 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

tk jf 10:36 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
BARNAUL 09:53 GMT November 23, 2004
nice work pls post yr thoughts here so we can make some money risk free

Moscow Vasya 10:32 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
bandung - what you think of jpy?

KL KL 10:31 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8642

bandung mbonky 10:30 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
there u go...gbp too fast too furious....
eur is just following gbp...
last trip to the moon

Chicago JMI 10:25 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
London Zappy 10:23 GMT November 23, 2004

Thin market.

London Zappy 10:23 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
What did I miss?
Why is GBP so strong this morning?

Moscow Vasya 10:22 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
I think that gbp didnt lose its rising power yet. While gbp will rest @ 1,8600 during refill, jpy will be rising against usd, then gbp up-move will continue

KL KL 10:19 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
out short usdcad 1.1873 from 1.1907 +34, out short gbpusd +4 pips at 95

knoxville dan-k 10:18 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
a friend of mine borrowed 160,000.00 to buy nortel networks when they went down to 40.00$ a share he asked me if it was a good deal, i replied well the stock has been cut in half so yep it could be, however put in your stop loss because it may get cut again, and again, well he did not listen said his son in law could get him out of a bad trade fast worked for msdw--lol can buy nt a little cheeper now for sure, trading on borrowed money??? hummm

Vilnius Phoenix 10:16 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
BARNAUL 09:53 GMT November 23, 2004

Much more worth is not get some money but get good advice: learn english and never trade forex any more ... It's for free :)

London Tokky 10:11 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Any suggestions on EUR/GBP please?

scamski takeyourmoneyski 10:10 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
My mother needs a new kidney, please give me money! Don't these scammers ever give it a rest???

KL KL 10:04 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
short again gbpusd 1.8599 usdcad still alive

berlin otto 10:01 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
BARNAUL 09:53 GMT November 23, 2004
Hi.
I'm from RUSSIA
i know english not very well. So, sorry for my bad english.
I'm x'trader. I was a trader on FOREX. This is very new kind of buisness in Russia.
now i'm x'trader because l loose all money.
23750 dollars!!! Greate money for Russia.
That was not my money. Some man gives me money for trading.
And now he wants me to return money very fast.
i have no chance to find this money in Russia
Please help me as more as posible.
Please send me any sum via webmoney. May be your 1 dollar will save me.
Z190372885671
U438789678091
R358512287136
E512781202263
Thank you for any help.


I must tell you that a lot of people lost all money on forex.
But trading without rules is very dangerous:
please, tell me from which part of Russia you are and how long did you trade?

HK [email protected] 10:00 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
LOL

....The central bank official also said his country(China) did not want to run trade
surpluses or accumulate foreign currency reserves.
.........By deputy governor of the People's Bank of China Li Ruogu

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=5124690&subject=economic&action=article

sydney gvm 10:00 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
US$ downtrend in normal retracement / profit taking mode (weak hands) in a solid bear market - someone mentioned 4 big figure retracement ... need a trigger for that sort of move - dont see that in a thin holiday week market - sure squeezes can take this dollar higher than one would assume likely but 4 big figures?

Does Noody Girl still hang out here?

bandung mbonky 09:59 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
did you see the black cat?? (refers to the Matrix), its been the sama day like yesterday, i still have my long eur at 13014 (was it too fast??)

do i have to cut it out?? any sggst??

beirut jb 09:55 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
hi traders

hi GEP

103.7 capped the move so far but if the due correction is underway we should test at least 104.4

any drop from here open the door to 10270 again and 102

i think it should go up little further and 10370/10380 may be taken

FWIW

GL GT

Gen dk 09:52 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Ldn 09:51 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
The recipe to reduce the US deficit is a weak currency and high interest rates.. if Greenspan has his way they will get both, so dont be surprised if he doesnt raise rate by 50bps in the next two/three meetings .

HK [email protected] 09:47 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   

Dallas GEP

I am out of the market now.

Do you have a long term bullish view on the Cad$.

Seems if it will appreciate, one may have nice profits for longer term.

Around 1.15xx maybe to yearend

Moscow Vasya 09:41 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Not at all Dallas Gep, I think jpy and gbp will rise against usd quite soon, so you hurried to close your jpy buy, no sence to reopen it however

HK [email protected] 09:37 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:34 GMT November 23, 2004

I was thinking should close at 103.40/50

Anyway looks a tiny loss.

KL KL 09:37 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8565

Dallas GEP 09:34 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Well closed usd/jpy shorts at BE....looks bullish now RF

Dallas GEP 09:28 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
OUT at +25 on Eur/gbp shorts

Dallas GEP 09:26 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Could RF, but this is a VERY short term signal...

KL KL 09:22 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
short usdcad 1.1907

HK [email protected] 09:17 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:05 GMT November 23, 2004

I think Yen may pop up a little above 104 B4 coming down!

Auckland 09:17 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Madrid CAB 09:09 GMT November 23, 2004
Thanks mate...

Hong Kong Qindex 09:14 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Madrid CAB 09:09 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Auckland 08:47 GMT November 23, 2004
Nov. 23th. Labor Day in Japan

hk ab 09:06 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
aas//a fall by 4 fig. is not some what impressive, maybe a fall by 8 fig. could be. :D

Dallas GEP 09:05 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Shorted usd/jpy @ 103.59....assuming here we stay in range in first half of LOndon. 20 pip stop....TP @ 103.19

london aas 08:54 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
eurusd to fall by 4 big figures by friday this week. Is this a totally bonkers suggestion?

Auckland 08:47 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Syd 08:02 GMT November 23, 2004
Almost sleeping time for us - south hemisfere souls...
any way Good day to you syd god day world and good trade
(and for all folks in trading business from my area good sleep on office desk)
... does anybody knows is today holiday in Japan

KL KL 08:13 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
long again 1.8529 out 1.8551 +21...today is stop hunt day!! period. Trade like ninja and you will survive....note survive not succeed

Syd 08:02 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Auckland apologise mate good day

berlin otto 07:50 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
I apologise - I wish good morning and good day.

Auckland 07:49 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
berlin otto 07:30 GMT November 23, 2004
Good morning to you Berlin...
Nice to see all those cities on list...
I almost forgot where I'm coming from...
Good morning and good trade

Syd 07:43 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
berlin otto Sydney Brisbane Melbourne HK Tokyo Singapore Dubai also good morning

Bribane L 07:35 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Unanimity in financial markets is usually a warning sign. So contrarians, responding to the now universally bearish sentiment against the US dollar, are starting to ask what happens if the greenback doesn't fall.

Markets now have the message loud and clear. The US administration, while giving nominal support to a strong US dollar, is happy to see the world's reserve currency decline to help reduce the country's huge trade deficit.
LINK

berlin otto 07:30 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Good morning

London, Paris, Berlin, Wiena, Roma, Madrid, Belgrade, Zagabria, Ljubljana, Praha, Budapest, Warshavia, ...Geneva, Lisbona, Luxemburg.


I wish all of you good trading.

Syd 07:28 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
hk mom and joe, he seems to get too bullish right at top everytime and the same at the bottom

chicago joe 07:27 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
that was exactly my point, he's a good contrarian indicator.

hk mom 07:25 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
joe & 10 pips .............Max McKegg he was calling for 1.12
June 15, 2004 - "Having rallied well over the past several weeks, Euro has probably now resumed its Downtrend, finding formidable resistance about 1.2150/1.2200 for the next sell-off toward Key 1.1780/1.1765 support (see Daily Chart below) enroute to the 1.1200 level over coming weeks."

Jakarta Wibawa_Id 07:18 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
bandung mbonky,

I think we must take a good respond for that CFTC weekly data for sure. the CBOT has written on each CFTC reports that in the huge or even reccord Long/Short traders position would sometimes an opposite direction of currencies moevements.

I m agree with u in which CFTC reports would be a lagging info for us, but overall, still we can use it as a statistical data series inthe long run.

More over, I don't make a suggestion for traders with CFTC weekly data for instant position, anyway...LOL.
It should be just a doscovering data of the past, right?!

Hv a nice work in my hometown Bandung. & GL

KL KL 07:14 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd short 1.8556 +27

bandung mbonky 07:05 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
actually you can take the IMM data as your main source to forecast one week ahead, if you sketch graph of net long position vs weekly timeline, you discover that these future market traders are the trend following (just like moving avarage in your tschnical analysis), which always react lagged to price movement.

i.e data of 20 july 2004, when eur net long position resumed its peak at 36101, it was just after eur marked its 1.2428 high and than slide to 1.1970 on august.

so where the censored this net long position at that time?????
i think some cut their long but some still hold theirs until now...
gee....thats life
any comment??

KL KL 07:02 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
long gbpusd 1.8529

Syd 06:08 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
canberra I am not knocking him , he is an excellent treasurer
in my view

Syd 06:03 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Commonwealth Bank Of Australia Eyes Stake In China Bank

canberra 06:01 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Syd 05:49 GMT November 23, 2004
Yeah the same Costello who presided over a loss of $2.1 billion in foreign currency swaps..

Syd 05:49 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Australian Treasurer Peter Costello has waded into the currency debate, warning of dire consequences for exporters if the surging Australian dollar continues to gain.

"The fact it is harder for exporters is another factor that will affect our economy," he said at the close of Group-of-20 meetings in Berlin on Monday.

Sydney Ge11Ja 05:05 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Afternoon all, it seems the huge amount of short usd positions and overwhelming bearish press/ sentiment is weighing on market at mom. I believe leader has been USD/CHF, as it is outside ECB it has lead the way down (look at move in EUR/CHF last week) but from yesterday morning the cross has had a distinct bid feel about it. Now in my book the CHF never lies so while the cross remains bid I will look at levels to sell euro and buy usd/chf maybe 1.3010-25 and 1.164-55. For AUD I am also looking or pullback say 0.7725 ish, there are too many people late to the party on this move and they need to learn there is no such thing as a one way move.

GL and GT all

Hong Kong Qindex 04:49 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


Bahrain Within 10 Pips 04:42 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
chicago joe 04:39 GMT November 23, 2004
//
Sounds right

chicago joe 04:39 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
According to Max McKegg:

November 22nd - Last week saw the Euro correct back to targeted support before resuming its advance. The Outlook remains Bullish, expecting Euro to extend Uptrend onto 1.3150, enroute to the 1.3350 level (refer Weekly Chart below).

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 04:20 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
GBP/CHF is a good sell now
Your comments pls?

Sydney EM 04:18 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
If you look at the IMM data, the market is already massively short the dollar. So who is left to sell the dollar?

"Plus we are getting very close to the time when the leveraged community and also real money investors will want to book profits on short dollar positions ahead of year-end," Henderson said.

International Monetary Market data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report, an indication of speculative positioning, showed yen futures speculators' net long position rose to 44,596 contracts in the week ended Nov. 16 from 39,093 in the previous week.

Henderson said the short dollar positions were at a record high. Dollar Wins Respite

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 04:18 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
For the rest of the week I am gonna use day levels but only in the direction of long term trend..
when I get an opposite of the Long Term Trend in the daily I will use that as PT so here goes

EURUSD 1.3075 1.2970 Buy
USDJPY 103.4082 102.8158 Sell
GBPUSD 1.8636 1.8421 Buy
USDCHF 1.1708 1.1549 Sell
EURCHF 1.5198 1.5104 Sell
AUDUSD 0.7851 0.7785 Buy
USDCAD 1.2048 1.1751 Sell
NZDUSD 0.7118 0.7060 Buy
EURGBP 0.7045 0.7001 Buy
EURJPY 134.8139 133.7344 Buy
GBPJPY 192.2177 189.5603 Hold
CHFJPY 89.0208 88.1034 Buy
GBPCHF 2.1658 2.1506 Sell
EURAUD 1.6690 1.6565 Sell
EURCAD 1.5673 1.5273 Sell
AUDCAD 0.9401 0.9146 Hold
AUDJPY 80.9944 80.2941 Buy

Brisbane L 04:12 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Australian Dollar Drops on Concern Rally Has Been Too Rapid
LINK

The Reserve Bank has shown over the past 20 years it has a good feel for when the Australian dollar is getting overstretched,'' said Callow. ``We should not be surprised to see the bank starting to purchase more foreign exchange than it needs to fill government orders

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 04:09 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Rel GM All..

wellington am 04:09 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
building eur/usd shorts above 1.3000 for nov/dec rally.

chicago joe 04:08 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
have a feeling $ buyers might be reloading at the moment.

knoxville dan-k 04:04 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
oh well a real shake and bake, cleared out the stops for the big boys, i shall go to sleep on a pillow empty of $yens, and hold my audusd long for now

Brisbane PhD 03:52 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
02:24,Stopped out of long Eur/Usd at 1.3003.Now flat.

KL KL 03:47 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
out short usdcad 1.8999 at 85 +14 out long gbpusd 1.8533 at 46 +13....

Rye, NY et 03:47 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
fwiw...I think we're looking for 1.2850 over the next couple of days...before US Thanksgiving holiday. "Black Friday" (this Friday) is a good read on US consumer sentiment...expressed in concrete terms. IMHO

Syd 03:46 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
A 2-way risk is back into the USD recently by comments from officials which is affecting some players holding extreme USD short

LA Fxnew 03:44 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
hi all ..
any idea what is the direction for cable?


Thanks

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:44 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
toronto dr.unken kat 03:36 GMT November 23, 2004
In this kind of thin market we can expect some abnormal moves as the traders unwind their positions or go for the stops. I will follow the price action and see how it behaves on the support levels. For example this move on eur/usd pair and the bounce it is producing looks more like stop hunting to me but that is just my idea. I still believe the $ has not begun the correction yet IMHO.

chicago joe 03:40 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
so much for 1.31 for today.

toronto dr.unken kat 03:36 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
OMIL so you think there s a chance for the $ bulls?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:32 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
A break of the 3000-10 resistance for the eur/usd pair now will mean the bears are not in control IMO.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:27 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY et 03:13 GMT November 23, 2004
This can also be a shake down in the market to take out the weak stops IMHO. We will see what bounce is takes from this support.

KL KL 03:27 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
short usdcad 1.8999 long gbpusd 1.8533 limit buy earlier

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:21 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY et 03:13 GMT November 23, 2004
I was never away just a bit busy but I am glad to be able to contribute my ideas when I can. I meant to say 2930-50 and thank you for your kind words. GL GT

Hong Kong Qindex 03:21 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Tokyo IM 03:13 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Morning All.

Rye, NY et 03:13 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:08 GMT November 23, 2004
2030-50????
BTW, glad you're back...

Halifax CB 03:09 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
and in the longer term, it might go to it's true value, around 0.25. But that's for the political forum :)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:08 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Aggressive $ buying in a thin market it is a good time to make a move by the bears on the eur/usd pair as the 2970-80 support is being tested. Next support is around the 2030-50 area. I believe this is pure $ buying and I dont see any moves on the Yen pairs at all to create this $ strength IMHO. GL GT

HK [email protected] 03:05 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Longer term, amazing euro may go to the price_minima at 1.2656.

Halifax CB 03:05 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Well, the levels have held (loosely speaking), and the USD has paused to catch it's breath. maybe some small shorts against the $ would be appropriate...

BOJ 02:59 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Ha!

HOUSTON KENNY 02:58 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
close all postions and wait nobody knows the fx direction now . we dont know if the trend will still contiune , but one thing for sure is that the dollar is oversold. so be carefull

Halifax CB 02:58 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
dan-k - what the chance the MoF reads this board hmmmmm.

knoxville dan-k 02:55 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
koo koo clock cleaned on that one

chicago joe 02:51 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
bye bye yen

Dallas GEP 02:48 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Shorted eur/usd @ 1.2988 target 1.2955

knoxville dan-k 02:38 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
i tend to agree with u, but usdjpy keeps slamming into that 103.50 wall and stalling hummm

Halifax CB 02:38 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
interesting that the USDJPY is the only major USD cross not moving....still waiting.

wellington am 02:35 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
ask again when the Euro's off 200 pips. I'm taking it for real.

knoxville dan-k 02:31 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
anyone think this is for real , eur usd, usd jpy ?
or a fake out

chicago joe 02:29 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
bye bye aud.

Bribane L 02:24 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
AUD traders are booking profits support at 7740-7760 break there implies deeper correction on the cards.

Syd 02:19 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
AUD upswing mostly reciprocal of USD fall, RBA already selling AUD into market sold A$277 million in spot FX market in October Says RBA can't, won't resist global USD slide but if thinks market has overshot, is vulnerable
HSBC chief economist John Edwards.

Halifax CB 02:10 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
I'm waiting to see how well USDJPY holds 103.50, & USDCAD holds 1.19. If they start bouncing off those, it'sll be time to to short the USD again....maybe :) Anyway, nice to see a little action today! GL/GT

knoxville dan-k 02:08 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
a little confusing indicators going on here my momentum is showing a steep fall off on usdjpy, however my fxtrend is running up, price following fxtrend, usually one confirms the other any opnions?

wellington am 02:07 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Aggresive move south on kiwi portends trend reversal.

knoxville dan-k 02:03 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
thats a little pain, well see thanks

Quebec Swap 02:00 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
knoxville dan-k

USD/JPY will probably flirt with 103.65-70
I wouldn't be too concerned depending on how much pain you are willing to accept.

This EUR/USD flirting with 1.3000 is putting pressure.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:58 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Austin rb 01:54 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Would appreciate comments on trading usd/chf for a new forex trader as this pair seems to move smoother than others and gets more movement vs eur many times. gbp seems much more eratic with more spikes. Just my observations as a new forex trader. Thanks

knoxville dan-k 01:54 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
yep and im short jpy

Quebec Swap 01:52 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
presently Long EUR/USD

knoxville dan-k 01:51 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
what are feelings out there on usd/jpy , eur/usd comments?

knoxville dan-k 01:26 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
oh well +2 out sitting on hands

knoxville dan-k 01:08 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
short in play usd/jpy here small target to 29

Bribane L 01:06 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai BC getting the feeling the USD is about to correct ? more now than before . think its dangerous to now short ,

syd 01:01 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Its debatable where the USD goes up from here or waits till the 29th Nov and rallies into the beginning of December, I suppose its when the specs decide enough is enough and take their profits.. hearing this morning Bank of New York in an interview saying that the majority of short player in the USD are from spec account much higher than usual. FWIW

knoxville dan-k 01:01 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
locked and loaded +20 usd/jpy

KL KL 00:57 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
yipes licking wounds...off to have a break

knoxville dan-k 00:53 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
anyone think jpy may be intervening now?

KL KL 00:51 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
rats previous long taken... long again 1.8568 should have waited...think think

Bribane L 00:48 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Dangers seen in currency unanimity
Unanimity in financial markets is usually a warning sign. So contrarians, responding to the now universally bearish sentiment against the US dollar, are starting to ask what happens if the greenback doesn't fall.

Markets now have the message loud and clear. The US administration, while giving nominal support to a strong US dollar, is happy to see the world's reserve currency decline to help reduce the country's huge trade deficit.

"The US dollar should be well softer already and that Monday didn't create carnage right from the open is a warning signal," said Macquarie Bank's divisional head of currency trading, Geoff Bowmer.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 00:47 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
eurusd now in my buy zone very short-term. dips should be used to buy for target approx. 1.305x areas.

gl everyone and leaving now.

TIA:-)

new york city Stefan 00:47 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Thank you very much for your answers, they have been a great help and I will take your advices. Again, I apprecieate your considerations on the questions I had.

KL KL 00:46 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
ok long gbpusd 1.8577

NJ Remy 00:45 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
new york city Stefan .... I believe that you and I have the same roots ... I am pushing it to start trading also .... we can talk .... send me an E-mail to [email protected]

Porto PJT 00:39 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
new york city Stefan 00:29 , if you go to the help forum you will find some interesting books to read.See OMIL 01:10 post for example.

Atlanta-South 00:38 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
New York City Stefan: A GOOD book to get to know FX, but try looking for TECHNICAL ANALYSIS books. These are better suited to aid in trading. Read all you can on the subject of trading. Ask avice from the PRO TRADERS that use this forum. They are helpful & full of hard earned knowledge & wisdom. Take your time if you are a NEW TRADER. GOOD LUCK & GOOD TRADING.

Bribane L 00:37 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
new york city Stefan I have not read the book ,
."Global currency markets" by Cornelius Luca.
however have known of Cornelius Luca for many years and in my opinion he has an excellent reputation

knoxville dan-k 00:32 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
food for thought any replys welcome
if i remember my usd ccy's we used to have a black seal on our paper bills (in the black humm profit and fully backed)
next we had a red seal-humm( operating in the red humm)
and now we have a green seal ---hummmmmm Play money maby?

new york city Stefan 00:29 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Hi, I'm getting ready to start trading in about a month. I have a question regarding a book..."Global currency markets" by Cornelius Luca. Could you tell me your opinion about the book and if you have a better book in mind could you recomand it to me? Thank you for your consideration on this message.

Bribane L 00:21 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
nyc grumpy the next Federal Reserve rate meeting will slow the fall in the USD and any consequential move they make and a pick-up in the economy.

nyc grumpy 00:17 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
does anyone really think the US cares what he BoC is saying?

their problrms exist far beyond the US alon e considering EMU and Jpn opinions that "they" are paying the price for a fixed remnimbi

KL KL 00:16 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Caba , ok I close gbpusd too at 92 +13....reshort higher or long lower

knoxville dan-k 00:14 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
really wondering about this just read that jpy may allow the usd/jpy to fall to 100 before intervention woooooooow

Bribane L 00:09 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
It appears from the FT article ,China are telling the US what they can to do with the suggestions of a Float

Philadelphia Caba 00:05 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 23:45 GMT November 22, 2004
Caba, I am tempted to tp..you keen to BE.....ok I will ride with you but on one exception I have lock in 2 pip gain!!

Closed at BE.

Philadelphia Caba 00:04 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
Closed at BE.

prague jv 00:02 GMT November 23, 2004 Reply   
good morning asia

Seems movement still limited for time being , here is some observation .

bias direction on my whach list is;
eur/gbp up
eur/usd up
gbp/usd up
eur/jpy flat
usd/jpy down

Looking at open trade statistics , spec. acc are allready heavy on short eur/usd and long usd/jpy , short on eur/gbp
So from there is sign of limited movment , but on other side we have interventions speculations .
gl

 




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