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Forex Forum Archive for 11/24/2004

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SanFrancisco TG 23:58 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone remember if EurYen or $swiss were hit as well in the last $jpy interventions? Tia much

London. 23:52 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
boston mpd004 thats ok only please to be of help, these are the hidden elements of trading that make up the bigger picture which goes hand in hand with the technicals.

london cam 23:50 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Russia to increase euro holdings.
http://www.eubusiness.com/afp/031022130631.yl0q9c0h

boston mpd004 23:47 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
London//that pretty much covers it! Thanks loads for being so precise London. I read it several times and just couldn't get a handle on it but you did an excellent job in explaining it. gl gt

London. 23:42 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
boston mpd004
they raised rates for the first time I think it was in 9yrs earlier this month , and are saying if inflation proves too high it will have no hesitation in increasing them further. Also, revaluation of CNY is helping China government bonds but could actually end up hurting market long term, with traders saying the worry is once China revalues CNY, tens of billions of yuan of "hot money" invested in bonds may exit as foreign speculators take profits. "It's not a question of whether the yuan will rise, it's a question of when. In this context more and more money from overseas is flowing into bonds. They're waiting for the yuan to appreciate, and after that they'll be looking for the best time to take profits," Guotai Junan Securities analyst says today

boston mpd004 23:32 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
London//what does that mean exactly as far as trading goes. Thanks GL GT

London 23:22 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
PBOC Chief Zhou reveals that central bank is guided by CPI when contemplating deposit rate changes and productivity when looking at lending rates; remarks suggest 2.25% deposit rate might face further tweak if CPI doesn't fall further in new year
reuters

melbourne farmacia 23:09 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Usd – Medium term target is upon us based on fib projections… need to see market’s reaction around this pivot over the next few days.
melbourne farmacia 03:50 GMT August 20, 2004
"ran some euro figures last week....so take your pick going into year end: over 1.2480 = 1.3203 or under 1.1758 = 1.1311..." GT

Syd 23:06 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja Aud seems to be reflecting the gold none event move also, perhaps because they made a run last week prior to the Europeans which are now playing catchup. Could be they are the first ones to reflect a top near at hand as sometimes they do and turn first Kiwi was a none starter

Sydney 23:02 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Yesterday's weak Australian 3Q construction report, Treasurer Peter Costello's downbeat comments on economic outlook indicate room for disappointment in 3Q investment report due 0030 GMT. An estimate of below A$51 billion for 2004-2005 investment plans would cast serious doubt on economy avoiding sub-par growth next year, reduce probability of RBA rise in 1Q05
ABC.

Sydney Ge11Ja 23:01 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Yes would make sense for sure, its a bearish close and feels weak as all, Im just concerned that the decent move up in USD/YEN this week happened on Japan holiday, suggests to me MOF not afraid to use sneaky methods to provide support for USD. What better time to give the market a good squeeze than when the US on all tucking in to their Thanksgiving dinners or in the car on their way home to mum and dad.

The real point is that I wouldnt be sitting long waiting for it to happen and if I was short I would be wary of such a move ie tight stops.

What about this AUD, struggling to match the EUR and Yen?

GL

London Zappy 22:59 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
On the other hand...
They might get them even cheaper if they wait.

London Zappy 22:57 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
I imagine that MOF might fancy buying a few dollars tonight...

London 22:54 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
U.S. Marines and Iraqi soldiers Wednesday discovered the empty home of Abdullah Janabi, the insurgent leader of Fallujah's mujahedeen council, and his bomb-laden mosque, where they found a massive supply of weapons, t
New York Times

They should have took whats his name out when he was hiding in the Mosque earlier in the year . cant stand all this merde about religious sacred places, live are more important

Syd 22:47 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja
hi, with dlr/yen under 103 , could bode well for an attack at lower levels any view on that

Tokyo IM 22:46 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Goodmorning all.

Sydney Ge11Ja 22:44 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Morning all, well the last 2 trading sessions have been a tad expensive to say the last as I have fallen for the classic "traders" mistake of trying to pick the tops. As "traders" we have difficulties with trending markets as it is not in our nature to sit on positions for long periods of time and get bored and want to countertrend. We usually realsie the folly of this at the actual top and spend the next 2 sessions saying things like I told you so etc etc etc

As this is now my primary source of income I am going to stand back and watch for a while, I cant afford to be "right" I just need to make money.

So as a view 1.3200 will be tough and 0.7900 in AUD will also slow things frist up. ON the downside a lot of stale shorts will snap up 1.3125 and 0.7845. For yen you have to expect soem chit chat from some official ... if you are lucky you might get a suprise move with US off on holidays, but best to wait for it to actualy happen as opposed to sit and pray it will happen.With any luck nothing will happen over these US holidays and I will be able to let the fog clear and see the move for what it is.

GL and GT all

London. 22:33 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Gold is a surprise , having not been able to take out $450 and above . would have thought it too with the dollar weakness should have seen higher levels or is this speculative only not real money at work. Anyone got view on it

Syd 22:30 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Australian 3Q capital expenditure report due 0030 GMT. Disappointing outcome would likely prompt trimming of GDP forecasts after yesterday's construction data were weaker than expected
Median expectation is 3.0% rise in private new capital expenditure in 3Q vs 2Q, after 5.8% rise in 2Q vs 1Q

dc fxq 22:29 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 22:23 GMT

Can't say about the next 3/4 hours re EURUSD but major national holidays typically see light volume and relatively quiet markets. That said however, given the current market environment and the almosy nil likelihood of intervention, I would look for the leveraged traders (eg. hedge funds, momentum players, CTA's, etc.) to continue to press that shoprt side of USD. And given that there will be limited US participation Friday, as many take a four day holiday, the same could be the case then.

I also see the 0200 ET to 0400 ET (0700 GMT/ 0900 GMT) as the likely time for EURUSD to spike based on the activity we have seen in recent weeks and days,

NJ RT 22:23 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
For the experts .... where do you think eurusd will top in the next 3-4 hours and how Thnaksgiving day will influence the currency tomorrow. Thank you

Syd 22:20 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
OPEC will stick with dollar, president saysThe president of OPEC, Purnomo Yusgiantoro, says the oil producers' group will retain the US dollar for oil sales. Speaking on 24 November 2004, he said that because OPEC members have different markets, the US currency appears to be the most suitable. The weaker US dollar has made oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies. At the same time, it reduces the buying power of oil exporting countries afr

KL KL 22:06 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
top of the day everyone my chf and gbb possie still alive...good thing I went for the snooze...now fresh to attack the equties market or whatever that moves

London Zappy 21:54 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Wow baby...
We are in uncharted teretory Pard'ner...

Dallas GEP 21:53 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
OK got a monor break on EURO now

Syd 21:51 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Australian Treasurer Peter Costello said Thursday the Australian dollar is trading at a "quite high" level making life tougher for the nation's exporters. Costello, just returned from the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank chiefs in Berlin, says decline in has caused friction between the U.S. and Europe.

Syd :-( 21:48 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Aust. Costello Says High AUD Tough For Exporters

San Diego DC 21:42 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
London AAs,

re: EUR/$
I am the one that posted EUR possible resistance areas.
With all due respect to you, if you believe technical indicators alone don't work that's fine with me. I ahve no problem with that. I would suggest that we as traders have tolerance for alternative ideas where people can be consistently successful without subscribing to any one point of view. This is the last I will speak on this subject.

SanFrancisco TG 21:23 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
AAS - Completely agree. I factor in technical issues only as an indication of where turbulence or congestion could arise. If a major level of concern is compromised or holds than it tells me to be aware the market MAY respond to it with force.

YVR TTT 21:23 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
The first German farmers settled in South West Africa in 1892. The next year trouble developed with the Khoikhoi people, which led to later uprisings by them (1903) and by the Herero (1904). The Germans responded by reducing the Herero from a tribe of 80,000 persons to 15,000 starving refugees.

Private concerns that helped to develop the project did not follow the dictate of Congress and sought out to seduce the militarv with the idea that this technology could be used in warfare to control enemy minds. A secret group with deep financial resources and some sort of military tie decided they would establish a new research facility at Camp Hero, a derelic Air Force Station at Montauk Point. New York.

london aas 21:16 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
WRT eurusd. Somebody posted earlier about 'barriers' to euro's rise. I'm afraid that's what becomes of getting too engrossed with technical indicators, mas, graphs etc. Much better to sit back a look at the big picture. No wonder 99.9% of day traders never make a bean.

How on earth can there be technical barriers when eurusd hits highs *NEVER* seen before? IMHO dollar will continue to fall once every greenback bull has thrown in the towel, and that's some way off.

berlin otto 21:10 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
YVR TTT 21:03 GMT November 24, 2004
Ya-Otto, then the Secretary-General of SWAPO?

Can You explaine

Dallas GEP 21:08 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Took some CHF long at 1.1459

YVR TTT 21:03 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Ya-Otto, then the Secretary-General of SWAPO?

Syd 20:42 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
berlin otto 20:29 thanks I will keep my eye open, Aud is suppose to be peaking today also. thanks

Baltimore Zoltan 20:36 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Thanks, GEP!!!! I guess 7015 is the bottom of the prev. channel.

geneva 20:35 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
I am just wondering where is Mr. Lower the Euro!

Dallas GEP 20:30 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Zolton, there will some resistance at 7015 if it breaks the 7028 will print.

berlin otto 20:29 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
To: Sydney 20:17 GMT November 24, 2004
berlin otto just signed on this morning, are you saying we will be getting a reversal anytime soon.

Yes, in few days maybe in few hours will same pairs change direction. When will be the change, You will find for each pair my sugestion on chat in middle European Time /GMT 10 -12

Dallas GEP 20:29 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Scanning all these pairs, I think the best possie if you don't mind A 50 PIP STOP is a eur/chf long. It bounced VERY hard up from it's support earlier. Out for now.

Baltimore Zoltan 20:25 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
GEP: What's your target on EUR/GBP? I bought some y.dat at 6991 (ask), still holding it for 7025/28. You think that's right? Thanks, and happy Thanksgiving!

Sydney 20:17 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
berlin otto just signed on this morning, are you saying we will be getting a reversal anytime soon.

San Diego DC 20:11 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Berlin Otto,
Thanks. Look forward to it.

Dallas GEP 20:11 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
CeCom, I am not really sure to tell you the truth. With usd/chf being as LOW as it is right now, EUR/USD SHOULD be higher but it is not. Could be usd/jpy longs are helping check it. I keep expecting usd/jpy to be bid up over 103.00 again but that might not happen until asia. We are still haven't really printed any new daily highs or at least we are wi a pip or two of them.

berlin otto 20:10 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
LA BV 20:06 GMT November 24, 2004
Otto, you have been calling for a correction for days and now say we should sit out what has turned into a major trend??? Would have missed some big moves listening to you.

If the moving for 50 pips is big, then yes. Oterwise no, all big movements I will work, and then just wait for next new big movements.

LA BV 20:06 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Otto, you have been calling for a correction for days and now say we should sit out what has turned into a major trend??? Would have missed some big moves listening to you.

JHB CDB 20:04 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Thank You GEP, I have placed my SL and TP orders. I am off to bed, at least I have capped my SL and maybe breakfast would be a smile tomorrow morning.

GL & GT, once again thank you for the advice.

berlin otto 20:04 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
San Diego DC 19:49 GMT November 24, 2004
Berlin Otto,
I am all ears when you choose to talk
:)

It is nice to hear that.
If You will trust me, You can't be on wrong direction.

We just have to wait some time. I will start when will trend change. Until then just wait and be patient.

Helsinki CeCom 20:02 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Anyone lese thinks he Euro Bull train is running out of steam at these levels?I think 1,32 is key for a slight reversal. maybe 1,2850-1,30? What fo you guys think?

SanFrancisco TG 19:58 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
berlin otto - Your kindness in sharing your experience to help others is a noble act and much appreciated. Most who know how to trade are greedy and don't wish to share.

Dallas GEP 19:56 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
That would be 102.70/75!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 19:54 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Good Deal Atlanta, nice possie.

Dallas GEP 19:53 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
CDB, I think Asia will bid up usd/jpy. Plus I would be surprised if we saw lower than 107.70/75 prior to Asia, I have various lots long the WORST entry I have is 102.98 and that IMO can be covered very easily. So I will hold usd.jpy longs and EVEN if MOF doesn't come in I think 103.40 could print in Asia.

london mamun 19:51 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
HI nyc grumpy
I AM SHORT £/$ 18821 & E/$13175 LONG $/Y 10282
MAY BE TAKING RISK FOR WEEKEND

Atlanta-South 19:51 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP: Just closed, + 5 more by waiting. In @ 1.3155 out @1.3174. Out for the weekend. THANKS AGAIN. GL GT

San Diego DC 19:49 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Berlin Otto,
I am all ears when you choose to talk
:)

berlin otto 19:48 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
San Diego DC 19:40 GMT November 24, 2004
Berlin Otto,
Your quote
"I am sure that some of You follow me or will follow me on market to trade for much more pips /never for 5,7, or 10/ and my way of trading encourage You and satisfied You to make money"
so, would you like to share what your way of trading is ?

When will be the right time I will tell You what You must do for success.
Please read all my instruction every day.

Van jv 19:47 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP////had the same scenario a expected to cover 1.3140 to make for some loss.....must admit that this persistance surpriswed me---expected that long would take some profits....possibly later in Asia and Europe?

nyc grumpy 19:46 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
"I am sure that some of You follow me or will follow me on market to trade for much more pips ..."

Oh, Lord its hard to be humble, when you perfect in every way.

JHB CDB 19:45 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
GEP

What is your position regarding the USD/JPY, I am 18 pips in the red on this long. Would you suggest holding it for the Asian session or take my losses and try again tomorrow?

What is your status on your USD/JPY long trade?

GL & GT

Dublin Flip 19:44 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
London CRB has just broken mutli decade highs.
Ozzies underperformance may be a case of a delay while awaiting the much bigger liquidty when Sydney come in.

San Diego DC 19:40 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Berlin Otto,
Your quote
"I am sure that some of You follow me or will follow me on market to trade for much more pips /never for 5,7, or 10/ and my way of trading encourage You and satisfied You to make money"
so, would you like to share what your way of trading is ?

Van jv 19:37 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
And being the most overvalued CCY

berlin otto 19:36 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Ok, guys

I see the market is going sleep and me either.

I see noone of You say anything of my words and I really apologise each of You who not undestand very well my sugestions on market to buy or sell.
I see someone of You not know what means "the hedge".
But I must say "the hedge" is not solution on this business.
Is solution just for few hours or days.

I am sure that some of You follow me or will follow me on market to trade for much more pips /never for 5,7, or 10/ and my way of trading encourage You and satisfied You to make money.

Our business is very good and very nice and the man must make it with patient, and encourage and must have right solution.

We must be good, encourage moneymakers.

GL/GT

Dallas GEP 19:35 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
I wonder what the SNB is thinking now???? THink they would be more concerned about eur/chf tho then usd/chf.

Dallas GEP 19:30 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
You could TP here Atlanta..which is near today's EUR/USD high. Might leave some pips on the table but at least you bank them

San Diego DC 19:29 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
EUR/$
Possible resistance areas - 1.3205, 1.3240, 1.3275

London 19:28 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
pd cumino aud underperformed in NY session can you see retracement for it in Asia Timezone

Atlanta-South 19:27 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP: Thanks for your adv, it is always great to read you post. I'll clean this trade very shortly & tp. I too feel to much can happen over the next few days. Your adv has been helpful to me since I joined this forum. THANKS again, & have a GREAT HOLIDAY.

dc fxq 19:21 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
praga jan 19:12 GMT

Markets in NY are all closed Thursday, Friday will be a hortened trading day with stocks closing at 13:00 ET and Futures at same time. also most trading desks - stocks, bonfs, futures and forex will be on short staff with mostly very junior staff (with limited authority) on hand. In stocks and futures this is usually the lightest volume day of the year as many people take the weeknd being now through Monday morning.

Dallas GEP 19:18 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta South..it typically NOT a good idea to leave possies open whether you are short or long IMO. Event risk for instance now COULD be intervention, OBL capture, terrorist event, etc.etc. However your long EURO might have some pips left in it prior to close.

Atlanta-South 19:14 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
I'm long EUR/$ from 1.3155, should i tp now & not risk it over the weeknd & holiday? What do the more experienced adv? Advice welcomed.

Quebec Swap 19:13 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
I'm looking to short EUR/USD above 1.3250 by end of week.

praga jan 19:12 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
the markets will be closed only tomorow or day after tomorow too,for the holidays?thanx.

Dallas GEP 19:10 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Thought process is as follows. Took that Eur/usd short @ 1.3168 when it looked like we might have some nice range trading fron 70 to 40 and back. Well eur/chf has temporarily screwed that up earlier with it short trip down taking usd/chf down with it and of course pushing eur/usd to today's high of 1.3175. eur/chf came back up pretty strongly from it's support area and then has pipped back down along with usd/chf. I think usd/jpy will be continued to be bid up from that 102.75/80 area so that SHOULD limit eur/usd longs to a certain extent. If usd/chf breaks and holds new lows tho.Eur/usd is probably 1.32+ IF usd/jpy doesn't get bid up above 103.00 which I beleive it will. Anyway anyone with any better theories I am glad to hear it because I ain't married to nothing.!! LOL

Van jv 19:09 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP///I think we have till 8am ET

Philadelphia CABA 18:58 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 18:55 GMT November 24, 2004
Will folow you with EUR/GBP. Thanks.

Dallas GEP 18:55 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Probably not EXCEPT for that eur/gbp order. I have I guess about 17 hours to decide that CABA.

Philadelphia CABA 18:52 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 18:42 GMT November 24, 2004

Will you keep any your positions over tomorow holiday?

Dallas GEP 18:42 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Well CABA, I would put is at 102.17 but I know that is very wide and I screwed up that last stop on USD/CHF for suew FWIW

Dallas GEP 18:41 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Good ONE Cumino!!! LOL

Philadelphia CABA 18:38 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Bought eur/chf @ 1.5100, wide s/l, no TP. Not for intraday.

Philadelphia CABA 18:31 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
GEP, one more question about s/l: where is your on usd/jpy long? Between 102.00-102.30? Thanks.

pd cumino 18:28 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Gep I noted that USD CHF also generally moves in opposite direction of CHF USD.

Global-View Research 18:18 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
FX Market Be Thankful The Dollar Is A Turkey

Thanksgiving is a US holiday for sure (Canada has one in October). But this year it is a day that a larger global audience should be celebrating. The currency market should be thankful. Thankful that the market has come back from a rather dreadful year for the buy side after a promising Q1...See full story in our Research Section

Dallas GEP 18:15 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
RB, global view is right....easiest way to learn that IMO is to compare charts of one pair to another pair and then note how the charts differ and how they are the same. Look at eur/usd and usd/chf charts for instance (see how they generally move in OPPOSITE directions???)

Global-View 18:05 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Austin.. We will be launching a new learning center soon where you can ask such quesations.

to dr.unken kat 18:04 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
diagonal line on 4hr offers resistance at 3184

berlin otto 18:03 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Good morning and good evening

Washington, Vancouvre, Tel aviv, Sao Paolo, Tokyo, Lisbona,
Pjongjang, Havana and many other beautiful towns arround the world.

I am very dissapointed that from America coming every day and every hour bad and bad news
And I listen every day mr. Snow and others top financial diplomate that nothing is change on strong dollar policy.

And now we see what is strong dollar policy - dollar is batteres much more every day.

I am watching all of you on the chat and I must tell you that each of you who trade for 5,7, or ten pips is on the wrong way. Because trade like this you must lose all of your money.

I decide now that I am waiting for change something on the market. I want one more time to trade for one or two or more hundred pips and only this way is right and need to sleep well without nervous and need good profit.

GL/GT

dc fxq 18:03 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Van jv 17:53 GMT

MoF does not usually move when US markets are closed. The typically sell JPY and by US TBonds/Notes with the USD proceeds. With banks and bond trading desks closed Thuirsday (and bery short stsaffed Friday) I would be very out of character.

Austin rb 18:02 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP

Where can I do some reading to understand how the movement of some currency pairs effects others such as eur/chf with usd/chf

Wien GD 18:01 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
KL ... seems well done!

Philadelphia CABA 18:01 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 17:44 GMT November 24, 2004
I have a eur/gbp long waiting @ .6986

Will you keep it over Thanksgiving?

Dallas GEP 17:54 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY AGAIN is being bid up. DO NOT LET this catch you unprepared. USD/JPY could be VERY VERY strong.

tim jj 17:54 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Good

Van jv 17:53 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Futures US are closing shortly----Forex will be thinner tomorrow as us Forex closed 8am ET to 7pm---assume that trading still goes on , except possibly a few windows????-----It may be a good time for BOJ push/mild intervention?///////????

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 17:50 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
i notice some are fighting market

NewYork frankie 17:46 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
just shorted euro from 1.3170 having just come back from the hospital this moment. what a pip fest i missed!!

Dallas GEP 17:44 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
I have a eur/gbp long waiting @ .6986

Philadelphia CABA 17:41 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 17:39 GMT November 24, 2004
Sorry CABA on the SL.....eur.chf shorts gave it no chance

No problem GEP...

Dallas GEP 17:39 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Sorry CABA on the SL.....eur.chf shorts gave it no chance

Dallas GEP 17:38 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
EUR/CHF bounced pretty hard up from support

KL KL 17:33 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Since encore ....one more last act long usdchf 1.1456...this is THE Low (i hope) short gbpusd 1.8825...sometimes it pays to have higher sl.....sometimes....loss of -14 and need to get it back fast!!

Dallas GEP 17:32 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
1.5075 is support on EUR/CHF

Dallas GEP 17:30 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
OK RB, eur/chf is MAINLY what is pulling usd/chf short

GER ad 17:29 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/CHF at 1.5100

Austin rb 17:25 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP

If you have time later maybe you could comment on my usd/chf question from yesterday in help forum thanks

Santo Domingo tht 17:23 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
1.35 Viies, 1.35.

Philadelphia CABA 17:23 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Stopped out on usdchf @ 1.1469

KL KL 17:21 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
There goes my last act...angry and dissatifying!!!

Tallinn viies 17:21 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
this 1,3170/75 seems to be chinese wall :)

Dallas GEP 17:18 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
1.3166 short on EUR/USD looking for 20 pips

Wien GD 17:17 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
sorry longing usdchf

Wien GD 17:16 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Imho shorting eurusd or gbpusd or longing chfusd is playing with fire ... that intraday charts doesn't look tired (for a reversal) to me?!! We will see.

KL KL 17:16 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8818 long usdchf 1.1490 both sl 7 perhaps my last act cos really tired

SanFrancisco TG 17:15 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Granted volume is light today but short lived dip in stock futures maybe done now so if we get sustained buying maybe some flow carries over to USD for a bit. Gonna see if it sticks.

Surabaya Medallion 17:14 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
What happened with CHF 1.1486? And why people short Aud and NZD?

Halifax CB 17:09 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I'd also go for a Eur/Aud short, but that one seems to be in the middle of a retracement on the dailies/hourlies. We'll wait.

Philadelphia CABA 17:06 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
JHB CDB 17:04 GMT November 24, 2004
Hi GEP

I entered my USD/JPY Long at 103.00

Did the same enter.

Tallinn viies 17:04 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
NY farhat 16:56 GMT - no idea. sorry

JHB CDB 17:04 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Hi GEP

I entered my USD/JPY Long at 103.00

Tallinn viies 17:03 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
took tiny euryen short at 135,5. stop at 135,89. fwiw
target 134,75/80

Halifax CB 16:57 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
FWIW - thse are two bets I wouldn't feel bad about losing at all, if it meant stability & further progress in the Ukraine.....

NY farhat 16:56 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   


I have open short position GBP/USD at 1.8800 ,

Stay on it or not ??

Halifax CB 16:55 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Shorting eur/chf, eur/cad, 100pip s/l on each. Maybe there's something to be gained from the announcement of the Ukranian winner....

Dallas GEP 16:54 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Wouldn't be surprised to see 104+ on usd/jpy before NY OR Asian close. Aussie shorts starting to work.

Tallinn viies 16:49 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
1,3140-1,3170 seems to be range till NYC close.
buy and sell, sell and buy. and comes to your pocket :)

KL KL 16:45 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
out short gbpusd 1.8823 at 08 +15,out long usdchf 1.1496 +2...I think gbpusd is better for me....market either getting tired like me or setting up some traps for me to fall into...ninja armour on now!!

Tallinn viies 16:43 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
NY farhat 16:38 GMT - whats your guess

Philadelphia CABA 16:43 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP.

Dallas GEP 16:41 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Caba 1.1469

NY farhat 16:38 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
About GBP/USD Down Or Up ?

Hong Kong Qindex 16:37 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:57 GMT - Thank you for your compliment. In fact I like to use EUR/USD as an example to illustrate the usefulness of my system.

Philadelphia CABA 16:34 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
GEP, may I ask you on your s/l usdchf long? Thanks.

KL KL 16:33 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8823.... i lied long usdchf 1.1494

Philadelphia CABA 16:30 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Long usd/chf @ 1.1498

KL KL 16:29 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd short +5 at 05 usdchf +4 at 98...focusing on gbp only now

Dallas GEP 16:24 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
OK will try some more usd/jpy longs IF 102.75 is seen. I think usd/chf longs from 1.1495 ASK could be tried with 25 pip stop. Euro at this time appears to have a little more containment to the topside than GBP does because of our asian friends. I am currently long usd/jpy, short aussie, and long usd/chf.

Miami Southbeach scalper 16:22 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
$/yen shorts are going to cover before Thanksgiving. To much risk of intervention to be short the dollar.

NY farhat 16:12 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   

---------------------------


someone about GBP/USD ?




Thank you.
-----------------------------

PUNJAB 16:10 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Guys Keep Eyes On Eur/Chf
May be A Big Down Dip Creating
thanks

KL KL 16:05 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
btw happy thanks giving day its already official over this part but aint a public holiday this part of world. Enjoy the fat TURKEY!!


eat my dust usdchf out +1 long again 1.1494 sl 7 below
short gbpusd 1.8810

Gothenburg XON 16:02 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Time to break through 1,8810 ?

SanFrancisco TG 16:00 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Must add after last TP long the market has run out of juice upside (very near term intra) for now.

SanFrancisco TG 15:57 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
KL - did roughly the same on $chf. Market been toying 25 - 00 +/- since run down.

KL KL 15:56 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
in long usdchf 1.1502...seems like a good support near 1.15 sl 7 below...keeps bouncing here

Dallas GEP 15:47 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
RT, not likely. Probably that was LOW for today IMO could see 102.70/75 tho

KL KL 15:46 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
out long usd chf 1.1511 +5, short gbpusd 1.8799 +9...ok start on this wake

River Falls_USA_ PB 15:45 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 15:38 GMT November 24, 2004/// its called a strong €/$ bull channel from Sep 30 – Oct 19 with an upside breakout on Oct 20 and another bull channel forming with strong continuation ‘till now. Gotta’ love this trend…even when the “beloved” retracements don’t have much strength. GT/GL

Halifax CB 15:43 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT, it's just normal variability. After all, anything that can go up a hundred pips in a few hours can certainly go the other way just as fast.

KL KL 15:43 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
in long usd chf 1.1506, short gbpusd 1.8808

hk ab 15:41 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
If OBL walks out slowly.....on the TV screen...

NJ RT 15:41 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Dallas .... your opp. any chance to go up to 60's again?

wellington am 15:40 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
There is something in this euro short. Gold rejected 450 and is coming off.

SanFrancisco TG 15:40 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
profits locked.

Dallas GEP 15:38 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
RT, somebody in on bid on usd/jpy

Omaha Warren 15:38 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
I thought I had warned you about touching sinking assets.

NJ RT 15:38 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
gee ...what's up with the eurusd? SOMEBODY ?!

Tallinn viies 15:36 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
covered my short euro at 1,3150.
will sell near 70 again. dont like this market at all

SanFrancisco TG 15:34 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
About an hour prior to the good $chf short I posted earlier (sell 1525), I took a long that cost a couple of pips only fortunately, longs weren't sticking. Selling pressure may have abated now after the test of the figure. I've lowered my long entry level to 1505 roughly and again not looking for much. Fully prepared to cut fast if a small loss is seen due to earlier lack of longs follow through. Just trying to give some ideas.

Dallas GEP 15:25 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Well there was SOMEBODY in on usd/jpy longs

PUNJAB 15:22 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Closed Eur/GBp short from .7001 at .6993
+8 Pips
Great
that is the batter way to tarde in the bludy stituation
GT
;)

prague viktor 15:15 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
EU ZORRO .yeah thanks mate still no tops..at wich level do u see the end of this move.1,425?!!tia

Gothenburg XON 15:14 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Though getting through this 1,8810 barrier on cable...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:11 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Target 1.6590

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:09 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
short eur/aus

Hong Kong Qindex 15:05 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Paris Jean 14:54 GMT - When I post a series of Quantized Levels one can easily find the next level by adding or subtracting the market rhythm to the first or the last number. In this case the constant number is 39, so one can easily construct the following :- ............. 1.2898* - 1.2937 - 1.2976 - 1.3015 - {1.3053} - 1.3092 - 1.3131 - 1.3170 - 1.3208 - 1.3247 - 1.3286 // 1.3325 - 1.3364* ...

There is somrthing missing in this kind of presentaion. That is the ease of movement between these levels and I can only do it with bar charts.

EU ZORRO 15:02 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
prague viktor 14:53 ...Hi...have some orders up there...pls see my 5 November posts...GT

JHB CDB 14:58 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
With Thanks Giving Holiday in America, what could this mean for the dollar and the market for the rest of this week?

Any advice?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:57 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Good call on eur/usd Qindex I hope you are doing well these days. Well the little train (eur/usd) keeps chugging along this steep hill of a trend. 3110, 3125 and 3150 barriers are history I have resistance now around 3170-80, 3200-10 and 3230-40 for now. Retracement numbers have changed but I will not put them up until I see some kind of pullback to this latest bullish move IMHO. GL GT

GOES B747 14:55 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Santo Domingo tht...1985/6-1988/9 (70%) 1995/6-1998/9 (30%) will show us the 2002-2005 range/trend.

what you think about that?

gt

Hong Kong Qindex 14:55 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:13 GMT November 23, 2004
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) :

Other projected barriers from my weekly cycle are as follow :-

... // .............(1.2927) - 1.2952 - (1.3053) - 1.3154 - (1.3179) - 1.3221 - 1.3255 - (1.3305) .................

Paris Jean 14:54 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Quindex, what can we expect above 1,3170?
Thanks

prague viktor 14:53 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
EU ZORRO..Hi..are u going to sell the Euro at 1,35..G/T

Hong Kong Qindex 14:52 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:13 GMT November 23, 2004
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : ............................


Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

Curve A : ............... {1.3053} - 1.3092 - 1.3131 - 1.3170 ......

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:52 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
eur/cad...good test

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:52 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
eur

EU ZORRO 14:48 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Hi all...!!!!

....IMO we could test 1,35 before month ends...

GENEVA FHR 14:48 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
UOM 92.8

Santo Domingo tht 14:46 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747... the next support for USDX after 83.30 broke is 81.40
(July -95), that should take the Euro to 1.3320, and then 80.70 (Apr -95) / 1.3440. Can't see any other way to predict these levels now. Good luck.

GOES B747 14:43 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Santo Domingo tht 14:33 GMT November 24, 2004

thank you; 1.3530-1.3740 or 1.3640-1.3850 set as triggers with me; may you share your triggers with me?

tia & gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:42 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Hi Guys...Been working on a High / Low Expectations with trends.
The highest accuarcy model That I develped works fine for levels...no so good for trend.
Another model that speciailizes in Trend is bad with levels
Taking the best of models ability gives me this
Buys are only buys and Visa Versa

Currency Short Long Trend
EURUSD 1.3125 1.3043 Buy
USDJPY 103.7873 102.9526 Sell
GBPUSD 1.8725 1.8608 Buy
USDCHF 1.1623 1.1522 Sell
EURCHF 1.5185 1.5129 Sell
AUDUSD 0.7890 0.7806 Buy
USDCAD 1.1892 1.1800 Sell
NZDUSD 0.7162 0.7083 Buy
EURGBP 0.7017 0.6985 Buy
EURJPY 135.6711 134.7444 Buy
GBPJPY 193.5984 192.5304 Hold
CHFJPY 89.4088 88.7333 Buy
GBPCHF 2.1689 2.1579 Sell
EURAUD 1.6691 1.6591 Sell
EURCAD 1.5557 1.5450 Sell
AUDCAD 0.9340 0.9255 Hold
AUDJPY 81.5024 80.7144 Buy

AKL S.C. 14:42 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
131.70 is a wall.

Sydney Alimin 14:37 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
i kept saying euro looks toppish, but it kept going up LOL
perhaps it wants to tackle 1.32/1.33 first before coming down a bit

JHB CDB 14:35 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP

I hope you don't think it was me, I have stayed out with the USD/JPY, I am still looking for Long, but the "setup" wasn't right.

Manchester Daniel 14:34 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
I am trying to do an Elliot Wave count on GBP/$ and would appreciate if anyone with more knowledge than me could comment (guys on GVI side also welcomed to comment)

I make wave 1 from 17709 to 18161, or 452 pips

If wave 3 begins at 17745, I project a 2.618 extenstion of wave 1 (1183 pips) to give a target of 1.8928


Within this wave 3, I make wave (i) 17745 to 18449 = 704 pips.

wave (iii) begins at 18194, and if wave (i) = wave (iii), this gives a target of 1.8898.

Again, if I have miscounted, or violated an EWave rule, please let me know. Just trying to add some e-wave theory to the mix of things I use - always good to learn.

Happy Thanksgiving to all those in the US.

Santo Domingo tht 14:33 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Goes.. 1.38 is a long shot but 1.35 is not unrealistic.

Dallas GEP 14:33 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
THX GD,,situation happened to someone else but I appreciate it.

Well not quite sure about EURO because chf is trying to break strong support, My gut feeling is we won't have any usd bear breakouts at least in US session

GOES B747 14:32 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Santo Domingo tht 14:25 GMT November 24, 2004

ok, seems she knows enough to generate the correct view/forecast; please ask her when 1.2500 is showing on her crystal ball/pipe.

it may cause us to arrange meeting between her and my witch; I have very strong feeling that our witches will make us to catch 1200-1500pips move during 2005

tia and gt

HK [email protected] 14:32 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
1.3185/90 may be seen tonight.

Any intervention(if any), must be extremely powerful, as the big guys are sitting with confidence on big big profits.


PUNJAB 14:32 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
take a SHort On eur/Gbp .7004
target .6993
GT

SanFrancisco TG 14:31 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Ok I've locked in the gains on the $chf short from 1525 from just above the figure. Not expecting a significant probe below the figure since we've already covered fair ground overnight. Expect profits to be taken any time. 1525 remains my reversal entry area unless we drive significantly lower, upon which my reversal figure will adjust downward.

Tallinn viies 14:29 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
I hope 1,3165/70 contains this move. if not then I must chop lot more

Santo Domingo tht 14:28 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Actually, it's all based on sup levels for the dollar index, and with the strong trend I don't expect it to turn around soon. I'm not selling Euro below close to 1.35, I did it last week and it didn't work.

Wien GD 14:26 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
GEP ... i'm sorry for you ... think i know what you are talking off ... but that's trading ... the same happened to me yesterday ... i closed all positions, went for a walk and some time later ... all was well.
Wish you the best ... appreciate your views very very much ... imho you're not only a great trader - but also a great guy! Thx for your presence!!!

Santo Domingo tht 14:25 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
No, I just called my neighbour, she's a witch.

GOES B747 14:23 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Santo Domingo tht 14:10 GMT November 24, 2004

are you calling/reading out of monthly charts?


tia and gt

NJ RT 14:22 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
how do you see eurusd in the next hour?

spain (now) enxorizo 14:21 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
wien// sure, anyway i can pass it without posting it here? (for harvesting reasons)

Dallas GEP 14:19 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Well friends, FX can be a very disheartening experience at times. My sincerest hope is that we can help each other with our views. The truth be known tho sometimes we may inadvertantly hurt instead of help so when that happens it is especially distressing to me because I take it very personal. So to that end, I wish you all the best regardless of whether I happen to share your view or not.

Wien GD 14:18 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
spain (now) ... i consider to take a residency in spain (teneriffe) later ... are you spanish? Maybe i have your email adress to discuss that offline?

SanFrancisco TG 14:18 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Just to pass on an idea, I'm keying off of $chf 1525 intra day for as a short. If the figure holds +/- a little then a breech of 1525 that holds turns me long in probability depending on overall circumstances. Activity is quite muted though so I may just call it a day shortly and if it picks up after I'm gone I'll cope.

JHB CDB 14:15 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
prague jv

Thank you

Santo Domingo tht 14:10 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
And the Euro all time high is the backcalculated from DEM 1.3810
in -95 give or take a few points.

bandung mbonky 14:10 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
rob, always keep eye on eurgbp, if u want o trade gbpusd, as long as eurgbp still in upper channel, gbpusd will always act lagged compared to eurusd

i have my resist at 1.8820 for today, retrace to 1.8770 for today and tomorrow asia zone time

spain (now) enxorizo 14:06 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
wien// right now, malaga, maybe until end of the year...

London rob 14:05 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
****************************

are any command for gbp/usd ?

thank you.


****************************

Wien GD 14:03 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
spain (now) enxorizo ... i don't know ... and it doesn't matte for me.
Where are you from ... in spain?

Santo Domingo tht 14:03 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Sorry got cut off....

For the next few weeks I've set EUR/USD tgts based on USDX.
USDX 81.40 Euro 1.3320
USDX 80.70 Euro 1.3440
And if ECB doesn't stop the Euro rally...
USDX 78.50 Euro 1.3810 All time low/high.

Santo Domingo tht 14:01 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
For the next few weeks I've set EUR/USD tgts based on USDX.
USDX 81.40 Euro 1.3320
USDX 80.70

London rob 13:58 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   


About Gbp/Usd ?

thanx

GVI Jay 13:57 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
G7 Plus China, Dollar Dysfunctional (FXA)

In the wake of the acrimonious G20 meeting (G7 ministers split over the weakening dollar) and presumably an at times prickly APEC meeting (Bush and Hu debated yuan policy), there are growing signs of disharmony in international economic relations. And the point of contention is the apparent private wishes of the Bush administration for an orderly dollar decline.... See full update on our Reseacrh Section CLICK HERE

Budapest Daniel 13:53 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
NY, the answer is inside your question...

spain (now) enxorizo 13:46 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Wien GD // thanks, i was asking because all the news, analysis, opinions and tea-leaf readers i read say that $ is going down, and the momentum is going to carry it untill the €/$ zone of 1.35...

if history shows that trends are "stubborn" (do they??) , then you bet that this thing goes where, 1.35, 1.40? say, in a month? i noticed that october got $ sink almost 8 cents, so, people longing €/$ here, how much you expect(hope) to see it touch before the year ends?

PUNJAB 13:42 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
ANy comments On Eur/Chf
thanks

NY farhat 13:40 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   


What about Eur/USD ? Up or down ??

Geneva 13:40 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Shorting the US bonds is the next trend.

Halifax CB 13:39 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
well, no apparent frenzy today; guess that's a good thing? anyway, it's back to sleep for awhile....

prague jv 13:36 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
JHB CBD 13:27 GMT November 24, 2004

usd/jpy is still in downtrend , till belowe 103.42 on my system .
will by looking to buy , if price akction positive above or about that level

slv sam 13:32 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
another 70/80 pips up for the euro and close there will be the case for today imho.GT

Halifax CB 13:28 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
NY - before I forget; you can often get stopped out way outside your s/l, if the market reacts in a frenzy. Not a good thing.

JHB CBD 13:27 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Is there anyone here that has a Short term view on the USD/JPY ?

Sw john 13:26 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   

tp :1.3105

Halifax CB 13:25 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Ny farhat - W/r to the numbers (today - initial jobless claims, continuing claims, durable goods orders all at 13:30, Michigan consumer sentiment at 14:45; new home sales at 15:00, oil stock estimates 15:30), it used to be that good signs of economic performance would increase the strength of the dollar vis-a-vis other currencies, and the opposite for bad signs. In the recent past, the numbers haven't correlated well with dollar performance; they just make the market much more volatile for awhile, and often have traded against improved performance. I think right now there's some evidence that traders are trying to anticipate the markets reaction to the data on the basis of what happened on prior releases (hence the weak $), which opens up the market to a rebound, even if temporary. Anyway, I'm out till I can see which way the wind is blowing, which may take awhile :) GL/GT

Sw john 13:24 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
sell eur tp: 13.105

Atlanta-South 13:24 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
It is evident the EURO has an open road ahead, but there are times of slight retrace being presented. To those that can catch these retraces do so with caution. I've tried 16 over the last week winning only 7, but cut loss short, so still ahead slightly. IMHO it appears these retrace moves are getting harder to catch (at least for me). For now I'll stay long EURO/USD. Just my thoughts & observation. I'm certainly not a PRO. GL & GT To ALL.

london sylhet 13:19 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
sell gbpusd target 18755

PUNJAB 13:14 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Out Short usd/Jpy 102.83 from 102.91
+ 4 :)
Thanks N GT

Ny farhat 13:09 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   


in 13.30 GMT data ,
what is efect? USD up or doen ??

Wien GD 13:06 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
spain (now) enxorizo: nobody "knows" the trend. But a lot of traders and commercials expect a much weaker usd. F.e. take a look at this link: http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356
Nobody knows when and whether CBs will intervene. Therefore it shouldn't matter.

Your trading style depends on your time frame (shortterm, mediumterm oder longter) and on your MM.

My take: we haven't seen the usd lows yet ... expect a much lower usd until end of 2005. But DYOD!!!

Budapest Daniel 13:03 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
sorry i missed something... I'm not a guru at all LOL

Budapest Daniel 13:02 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
if everyone is expecting the eur/usd to go down then it will go up... :)

NJ RT 13:00 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
to all guru's .... where do you think the eurusd will go today?nothing is here from what I was expecting

NY farhat 12:53 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   


I wish all have a good trade .

Tallinn viies 12:49 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw 12:32 GMT - thnks.

Auckland 12:49 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
thanks wien!

Wien GD 12:48 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Auckland: search the internet for gartman and trading

Auckland K 12:45 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
sorry spotforex just saw your post that there's no link. do I subscribe via e-mail? if so do you have the address? thanks a lot!

spain (now) enxorizo 12:44 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Hi all,
i'm a new kid on the block on this FX thing. great forum. lloks like i'm sticking around.
Seen one rule that i'd like to ask the "old dogs" here about:
- the trends tend to keep going longer than anybody always thinks it's possible/rational.

If this is true, then you think this $ trend is going to stay? will it survive "corrections" and "interventions" by CBs?

for example, right now, using that rule, i think that i'd ride the €/$ wave up until 1.35xx, get some profits, let the CBs and big sharks take their bites, ride shorts for a while, then get back on the wave at 1.34/1.33 up to 1.38xx....

thanks for your two cents.... :)

Auckland K 12:39 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex is there a website?

Spotforex NY 12:35 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
$500 a month to subscribe

NY Farhat 12:34 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   

Therefore i still on it : short at : 1.3123


Thank you.

Helsinki iw 12:32 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Have it your way viies. Suggested reading:Alexander M Ineichen: Absolute Returns, The Risk and Opportunities of Hedge Fund Investing.

GER ad 12:30 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
NY 12:06 ,
Short EUR/USD at 1.3123...
I am waiting to short EUR/USD at 1.3190/1.32 later today with a 30-40 pips S/L hoping to see a correction to 1.2940 (possible 100 pips lower) by Monday and in this scenario a short like yours could be than a nice position but is not guaranty that this will happen.
Maybe you can close first the position in the high twenties or low thirty’s before the data in US.
GL & GT

bandung mbonky 12:28 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
wait til eurozone close to take action i think, just to grab 20-30 pts with less volatile move.

Auckland KK 12:28 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
spotforex how do I subscribe?

Wall Street 12:28 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Farhat- there is no eur/$ top in sight, which is why I am advising caution.

Tallinn viies 12:27 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
all right,
tried to say that by def alpha is a skill. alpha shows skills to make extra money over beta. no need for opportunity because market is always there.

Spotforex NY 12:25 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Wien GD 12:11

Well, the rules you posted are from his daily commentary . There is no link. Subscription service only.

You got the rules from a subscriber of his services...or even second hand.

Ny Farhat 12:23 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   


eur/usd How much it mybe high ??

Wien GD 12:23 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw ... lol, that's what i started thinking about the last couple of days. Funny you pointed out that 6.

To put it in other words: Keep it simple. Yesterday i called me a STUPID, STUDID idiot to trade against the trend and closed the losing trades and went long again. Thx god!!!

PUNJAB 12:22 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Take a short On USD/JPy 102.91
GT

Wall Street 12:22 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
N.Y.- I have no idea what your experience level is in forex is, but in general I don't like the idea of standing in front of a freight train. Your trade could work, but do yourself a favor, if it turns back your way, be quick to take profits and be sure to set a close stop above the market in case the trend continues. gl+gt

JHB CBD 12:19 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
GEP

I still eye th USD/JPY long, just don't have my entry as yet.

NY Farhat 12:19 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
I short eur/usd at 1.3123 ....

Thank you
Farhat

Ldn pm 12:18 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
I have a question for van gecko (or anyone in the know) on $/Cad -
I am told 25th of each month is oil day when the Canadian oil co's sell their Usd receipts for Cad. Do you know whether the oil companies have the flexibility to trade ahead of this date or is it a fixed date trade? If it is the latter surely it is open to heavy manipulation ? Would appreciate your thoughts/help on this matter.....many thanks in advance

Helsinki iw 12:12 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn, without opportunity to use your skill there is no value added. Skates are no good in Tonga.

KL KL 12:11 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
out usdcad long +2 to bring margin down to 30%...was close to 60%...NOW LETTING GBPUSD short and usdchf run to my sl...locking in 3 pips gain now on both.....oh why bother taking the pips now +12 usdchf at 1.1521 and +23 at 1.8789 on gbpusd short....wait for data and see what happens...could see stop hunt both ways!!...tired and having a break!!gl gt all

manila stubbs 12:11 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
NY 12:08 GMT November 24, 2004

hold onto it. wait for below 1.3000 and take profit there. execute new buy positions from 1.3000 to 1.2920.

Wien GD 12:11 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY - i don't know gartman ... link available pls?

Global-View 12:11 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
NY 12:08 GMT November 24, 2004 - suggest you add some identifying initial to your name as we have many members from the NY area.

Tallinn viies 12:09 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw 12:04 GMT - alpha is a skill not opportunity

NY 12:08 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
**********************************************



I have open short position in eur/uds at 1.3123 ,

close it or stay on it ??

Thank you .



**********************************************

NY 12:06 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
=1.3123

Wien GD 12:06 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
beirut jb:

1) Agree 10000% -> MM and RM. I'm profitable since i use only ~10% of my available funds --> can trade without fear, which imho is the most common reason to losses.
Commercials ... deep pockets ... use only 10% of your funds and you will have deep pockets. Whether you own millions or only some 10K.

2) I don't agree - at least it doesn't/didn't work for me. Whether wide stops or close stops. Imho stops are for the broker. Therefore changed my trading style.

a) NEVER never trade against the trend (30min to daily)

b) I (almost) never close a red position - simply wait until it turns green. F.e. for usdjpy (since i opened a mini account in june) i've about 120 profitable trades and less than 20 with a loss. Means highly profitable. This strategy works very well for sideways going markets and for trending markets, but seems (i'm still learning!) a little bit difficult in very stretched markets or near reversals. This is similar to "scale trading" but it's not the same.
gl, gt

NY 12:06 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   





I have open short position in eur/uds at 1.323 ,

close it or stay on it ??

Thank you .






flower City ISA 12:05 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
London - what is the next target for euro?

Helsinki iw 12:04 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
To further elaborate on your posts, Spotforex and Wien GD, point number 6 about markets being far less efficient than academics think, is actully the case for hedge funds excistence. If markets were efficient, as in textbooks, all alpha opportunities would be arbitraged away immediatly.

NJ RT 12:03 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Wien GD
Thank you for the input .... anyway closed @1.3150 +9pips .... maybe got lucky today

NY 12:01 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   

Eur/usd up or dow ?

Spotforex NY 11:57 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Wien GD 11:21 GMT

A subscriber to Gartman.......

He has very sound advice and i have quoted him in the past on this forum.

He usually posts these rules at Thanksgiving time. Timely post!!!!!!!


All the best


spot

GOES B747 11:57 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
"GOES B747 12:37 GMT November 23, 2004
cannot stop the greed factor; took EUR/USD short @ 1.3085
placed order to short again @ 1.3110 and 1.3140; full s/l @ 1.3190

initial target set for 200pips

gt all"

remoced the s/l from 1.3190; take the time policy is in tact; EUR/JPY short orders executed @ 135.75
GBP/JPY short order set @ 193.60 after 194.10 did not touch.

Halifax CB 11:57 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
I'm holding off till after (at least) the numbers at 13:30; then perhaps more opportunity to short the USD. But this drop seems pretty tired out for now.

london mamun 11:56 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
attn. beirut jb

may i have your email add.
[email protected]

london aas 11:53 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
halifax cb. I took a June '05 covered warrant gbpusd call 1.95. I suppose that's long term and should go lower from there.

eurusd is in downward trend but not for as long perhaps.

IMHO if you are a coward, like myself, better to trade in these long dated options rather than this hairy and poverty making spot and short term trades. Day trading tends to lead to no life, apart from a screen, and usually no wealth.

KL KL 11:48 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
long usd cad 1.1802

Halifax CB 11:43 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
london aas 11:39 - "Sitting back, I can see that the overall trend for usd is up. The trend's your friend. "

In what currency pair, and in what time frame, are you seeing this?

beirut jb 11:42 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Wien GD 11:21 GMT

great rules, I may add


1- Money management is the key of success, knowing good method is a must but MM and preservation of capital is the
surviving

2- Accept the loss : puting a stop is the cheaper cost of losers trade and u will have red trades

GL GT

Los Angeles ss 11:41 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Gep -- you think we've seen the top for cable today?

Bris TW 11:40 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Finally 1.88 target reached. Taking my big winnings and leaving the casino for the little fish to scramble for whats left. :)

london aas 11:39 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Not being a compulsive fx screen watcher, I get the impression that many people here with their mas, technical stuff, charts, graphs, wave theories are in danger of not seeing the wood for the trees. You can get so caught up in watching a screen for hours that the overall trend is being lost.

Sitting back, I can see that the overall trend for usd is up. The trend's your friend.

beirut jb 11:36 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
NY

get out if 13131 hold on retracement , GL GT

Global-View 11:35 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
CO 11:31 GMT November 24, 2004 (and others): Please spell out your location. There is a save feature where you can save the location/initials in the posting template so no excuse not to spell it out. TIA for your cooperation.

Dallas GEP 11:32 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
NY, will at least see your entry again

CO 11:31 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
*******************

Whay about EUR/USD ?

Up Or Down ?

********************

KL KL 11:27 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8812

KL KL 11:22 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
long usdchf 1.1509 ...waiting to attack gbpusd soon

NY 11:22 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   

I sold Eur at 1.3123 ,

Close or stay on it ??

Wien GD 11:21 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT: For medium/longterm traders: NEVER NEVER NEVER short against the trend - and this is a STRONG trend - STILL.

Yesterday i had my FIRST losses since this (eur) bull started ... i acted against that rule ... got caught by that "reversal".

And as someone mentioned today: forget about the charts. Just sit back.

Btw: here are some trading rules ... for newbies.

1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position ... ever! Nothing more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to ruin!

2. Trade like a mercanary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and be willing to change sides readily when one side has gained the upper hand.

3. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positionss costs measurable sums of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital.

4. The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher. We can never know what price is "low". Nor can we know what price is "high". Always remember that sugar once fell from 1.25/lb to 2 cent/lb and seemed "cheap" many times along the way.

5. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it is a lesson learned too late by far too many.

6. "Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent," according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.

7. Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we need to ride upon the strongest winds ... they shall carry us higher than shall lesser ones.

8. Try to trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent new action. We have come to respect "gaps" in our nearly thirty years of watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they are usually very important.

9. Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and agressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading poorly. In "good times" even errors are profitable; in "bad times" even the most well researched trades go away. This is the nature of trading; accept it.

10. To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technican. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we understand the market's technicals. When we do, then and only then, can we or should we, trade.

11. Respect "outside reversals" after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish forces that drove the market previously. Respect them, and respect even more "weekly" and "monthly" reversals.

12. Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.

13. Respect and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take prices back to major trends. If a trade is missed, wait patiently for the market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements happen .... just as we are about to give up hope that they shall not.

14. An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics. Markets are driven be human beings making human errors and also making super-human insights.

15. Establish initial positions in bull markets and on weakness in bear markets. The first "addition" should also be added on strength as the market shows the trend to be working. Henceforth, subsequent additions are to be added on retracements.

16. Bear markets are more violent than are bull markets and so also are their retracements.

17. Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing if we are "right" only 30% of time, as long as our losses are small and our profits are large.

18. The market is the sum total of the wisdom .... and the ignorance ... of all of those who deal in it; and we dare not argue with the market's wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we've learned much indeed.

19. Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not: if a market is strong, buy more; if a market is weak, sell more. New highs are to be bought; now lows sold.

20. The hard trade is the right trade: If it is easy to sell, don't; and if it is easy to buy don't. Do the trade that is hard to do and that which the crowd finds objectionable. Peter Steidelmeyer taught us this twenty five years ago and it holds truer now than then.

21. There is never one cockroach! This is the "winning" new rule submitted by our friend Tom Powell.

22. All rules are meant to be broken: the trick is knowing when ... and how infrequently this rule may be invoked!

wellington am 11:17 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 11:08 GMT November 24, 2004
Well, I'm no expert, but there's a few views:
- Elliott Wave guru predicted a blow off top tonight, failing at around 3125 and pulling back to 3050
- FXXCM research has consolidation and an attempt at 3200 to break through options
- Numerous value investors and gold bugs, much against their character, are predicting a sharp reversal.

Intersting to note that Gold's yet to breach critical 450. And cable and chf hitting key resistance levels.

For my money, I'm happy to take small short possies and ride this out for a while longer (sips more whiskey).


london aas 11:15 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Well bandung, if you had shorted usd since election there would be no need to sit in front of computer. Rather too busy counting profits. Of course it's ridiculous but remember markets can stay irrational for longer than you've got money.

Tallinn viies 11:14 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
uuuaahhh
sold euros at 1,3165.
will add near 1,3210/20.
target 1,2920/25

Dallas GEP 11:14 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Well usd//jpy is obviuosly bearish now will work stop manually. Possie size is relatively small. 102.50/60 looks like good target for shorts

london mamun 11:12 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
sell gbp 18802
buy usdjpy 10285

london mamun 11:12 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
sell gbp 18802
buy usdjpy 10285

NJ RT 11:08 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Experts .... any thoughts where eur/usd is going today? I shorted at 1.3159. Thnx

bandung mbonky 11:03 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
wasya n medallion, usdjpy 10260 is hard target bcause on 19 nov eurjpy at its support level 134,00, but today at 135,30.

KL KL 11:00 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
nearly 1 more pip....and I am out hands shaking....arrrgh taken at 07...rats....this is close very close...will reshort again very soon

Moscow Vasya 10:58 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Im keeping my eyes on monitor, and probably 102,75 will be good, a little more and i'll move stop to sell level, not to lose is already "win" :)

KL KL 10:55 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
all in short 1.8801 sl 7 above

Dallas GEP 10:52 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Put stop on usd/jpy longs @ 102.75

Dallas GEP 10:52 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Shorted AUSSIE at 7885...It has failed here for 2 hours ... will see

Surabaya Medallion 10:50 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Vasya

I think 102.6 is going to be a hard target except of course if Euro got 1.323. :)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:50 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
well what do guys think?
.xls file
sound like what U had in mind?

bandung mbonky 10:48 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
hahahah aas i hope its just a joke...do you really want to short usd without keep your eye on computer???

thats the big guts i mentioned, isn it??

NJ RT 10:47 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Shorted eur/usd @1.3159 target 1.3135. Hope it will work, too

Moscow Vasya 10:45 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Shorted usd/jpy @103,01 target 102,60. Hope it will work

KL KL 10:45 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
out short gbpusd +5 at 1.8780 reshort higher....how much higher can this thing go!!...wheee

london aas 10:44 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Look charts are meaningless now. Sell usd and just sit back.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:44 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
No ..he has a lot of drugs!!!!
U Might wanna compare IQ's.
But I really don't U ought to...hehehe

prague jv 10:43 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
if you feel that eur/usd is too fast for you , just switch to eur/gbp . :>)

Tallinn viies 10:40 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 10:36 GMT - usd is broken

london aas 10:39 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
As the hand is invisible, of course no one knows whose hand it is. Fact is, since election one could short usd and do precisely nothing. That doesn't sound like a market to me, more like a bubble; when it will burst is another matter. eurusd upward momentum is undeniable and irrational. Sooner or later markets have to re-connect with reality.

KL KL 10:39 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd long 1.8785 +28 SAR & short here 7 pips sl

bahrain with 10 pimps 10 10:38 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 10:36 GMT November 24, 2004
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:33 GMT November 24, 2004

How do you calculate 750 stocks? You have a "black box" ? ;)
No ..he has a lot of drugs!!!!

Hong Kong Qindex 10:38 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Use the weekly cycle analysis for reference at the same time.

NJ RT 10:36 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
gee what's up with EUR/USD ?

Bris TW 10:36 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:33 GMT November 24, 2004

How do you calculate 750 stocks? You have a "black box" ? ;)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:33 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Auckland
try this
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/ManyStocks.htm
750 stocks sp 500 + ftse + NZ+ France and HK

Bris TW 10:33 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
corection calcuation should be 1.8519 - 1.8751

Bris TW 10:31 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Calculate fibs from 1.8514 - 1.8751. What is above? 1.8793, 1.8814 and 1.8895.
1.8751 is support so far.

JHB CBD 10:29 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
GEP

Don't you think long USD/JPY is little bit too soon?

bandung mbonky 10:26 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
how bout this. wait until usdjpy break 10300 then place your short target 10267, SL 20-30pips.

reason: other pairs have already broke their record, just wait until market replace its target to jpy
no reason for jpy not to break 10300 regarding whats happen in other pairs (unless the fear of BOJ or BOJ already enter the market???)

have a nice try...c u there soon

Dallas GEP 10:25 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Longed usd/jpy @ 103.06....something has been bidding up USD/JPY from here 15 pip stop...will see

NJ RT 10:25 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Any thoughts how EUR/USD will behave from now one?

Malaga boqueron 10:23 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
London censored,
Who's invisible hand?

KL KL 10:22 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
suprise suprise long cable 1.8757 sl 7 below

Bris TW 10:22 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
london aas 10:16 GMT November 24, 2004

There was a stronger uptrend just before euro broke parity. Technicals still worked back then as they do now. Within an uptrend I find looking at the size of the consolodation to be a sign. At the moment 50pips is enough from highs to begin a push to newer and higher ones.

Maybe that "fx trader" was a fundamental type.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:21 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 10:17 GMT - EUR/USD : 1.3053 should be a good short term target. The odds are in favour of taking short position.

Surabaya Medallion 10:20 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Hmm, so Euro has failed to penetrate 1.315. These EUR/JPY need time to stabilize at 135.3.

Tallinn viies 10:19 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
london arse - this fx trader must be very wise man

van Gecko 10:17 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Qindex.. your 1.3032 - 1.3066 looks like a good target..

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:16 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Auckland 09:20 GMT November 24, 2004 //
Sorry havn't had the chance to those.

london aas 10:16 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
I've been told by an fx trader that since the election charts,graphs, crosses, technical indicators etc. are utterly meaningless as there is an 'invisible hand' pushing the dollar downwards. Unless and until people are willing to purchase usd the market will be distorted.

Bris TW 10:15 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Nbi YP
since here :
Bris TW 16:42 GMT October 19, 2004
The only buy signal for me in cable is around 1.8070. I would sell until that number is broken. Lower I wouldnt buy cable untill 1.7920-30.

Eur/gbp is a buy here .6933 and a 15 pips stop will be sufficient.

A longer term euro/sterling would target .7040-70

Helsinki iw 10:14 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ Out of last batch of dollar shorts now, with game plan to sell euros closer to 1.3475/85. All square for time being, apart for a short EUR 1.34 call, with may be stupid since vols are so low. Hopefully evidence of at least an intermediary top surfaces soon, so that one can get back in the market.
Game plan may chance without prior notice due to panic.

pr jv 10:14 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
better put buy order on 103.59 , just in case .

Gen dk 10:13 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Nbi YP 10:12 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 09:52 GMT November 24, 2004

Well done!!
Since when r u holding this posi?

KL KL 10:11 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
short 1.8770 out +8 1.8762...no point hanging around in this very very fast market today and volitile and my trading day.

melbourne farmacia 10:11 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
KL - Was looking for 10 figures ( from 1.7711 base ) as posted back in sept... overshoot levels @ 1.8800.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:11 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:29 GMT November 24, 2004
EUR/USD : The market is still range trading within the expected trading range of 1.2907 - 1.3156. The key quantized level, "Super Magnet", is positioning at 1.2907 and the neutral zone is 1.2987 - 1.3032.


Hong Kong Qindex 03:03 GMT November 24, 2004
EUR/USD : As shown in my monthly cycle charts a projected barrier is positioning at 1.3094 - 1.3106. The current expected trading ranges from my Monthly Cycle are as follow :-


A) : ... // {1.2907}* - 1.3032 - (1.3156) - 1.3280 - 1.3405* // ...



B) ... // {1.2907}* - 1.3004 - (1.3101) - 1.3198 - 1.3295* // ...


C) ... // {1.2907}* - 1.2987 - (1.3066) - 1.3145 -1.3224* // ...


Hong Kong Qindex 02:16 GMT November 24, 2004
USD Index : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is vibrating around 83.46 with an expected magnitude of 82.83 - 84.10 for the time being. Projected supporting and resistant point is located at 82.19 and 84.73 respectively. In the last trading session the market (Dec) closed at 82.99. It hit the low at 82.85 and the high at 83.54.


... // 82.19* - 82.83 - 83.46 - 84.10 - 84.73* // ...

manila stubbs 10:11 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 09:52 GMT November 24, 2004

well deserved.

Bris TW 10:08 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Cable over 1.8797 will go to 1.8815 quickly and may hold there before 1.8897

Dallas GEP 10:07 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
HAven't shorted YET tho

Dallas GEP 10:06 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Hmm YEP could be on stop on GBP Stop

Los Angeles ss 10:06 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Gep thanks, may be with you here on a short, gotta believe this is due for a good pullback now.

Bris TW 10:05 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 10:03 GMT November 24, 2004

I better stop would be 1.8797 GEP.

HK [email protected] 10:05 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
A simple friendly indicator ROC(7) daily looks interesting, for higher highs.
Should be taken into consideration

Bris TW 10:04 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 10:00 GMT November 24, 2004

Best not to be too greedy friend. One of the 3 golden rules you know.

Dallas GEP 10:03 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
SS cable at 1.8768 has VERY strong resistance ,,, mat short from here with tight stop

Tallinn viies 10:01 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 09:54 - I would rathet say within next 2 weeks

van Gecko 10:00 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 09:56 why not? one way alley here.. those dollar pushers must think they had die & gone to heaven..

gold coast martin 10:00 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Dont go to southport bris....unless i am lost........no trouble if dont go to find it....g/t

Bris TW 09:57 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 09:54 GMT November 24, 2004

Are the schoolies causing you trouble at Southport? Keep clear of that place.

Bris TW 09:56 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
I am itching to ride 40 lots on more cable longs but Im resisting ;)

gold coast martin 09:54 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 09:52 GMT November 24, 2004
Fantastic idea...good work and enjoy the coast....g/t

slv sam 09:54 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
london aas 09:31 GMT November 24, 2004 /
Euro now at .13140
sell euro at 1.3220...more at 1.3340..and much more at 1.3470 then stop watching your computer! and wait your broker call that you have a fill on your limit order at 1.27..!!imho above scenario can be acheived in 2-3 month from today..GT

bandung mbonky 09:54 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
who kept USD or want to buy USD at this level should have a big guts or at least big cash to maintain your position, you never know when this situation will stop. do not expect too much on having the best price ever. there is no support for USD.
better wait for the best signal to buy (better late then never huh??), or just wait until all the bad news (crude oil, twin deficit, bush n iraq) disappear from the market.
good luck all...

Bris TW 09:52 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
manila stubbs 09:49 GMT November 24, 2004

No I am going to take the rest of the year off and retreat to my Home in the Isle of Capri, Gold Coast and go fishing.

Los Angeles ss 09:52 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Gep -- what is your take on cable at this time?

Trade of the day anmart fx 09:51 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD-0.7875. We buy at the market for 0.7985.

KL KL 09:50 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, so this rin on gbpusd what are the possible fibo run up. ...I have 1.8790...what is yours. Tia

manila stubbs 09:49 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 09:35 GMT November 24, 2004

nice work buddy. you gonna short it when your target is reached, or you reckon this still has more to go?

prague jv 09:48 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
you need 2 to tango , and now there is simpli not enuf usd buyers . Price will likeli koncolidate here till more comes to market . BOJ not likeli intervene here , coz thay cud be the only ones to buy usd .

HK [email protected] 09:46 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   

london aas 09:31 GMT November 24, 2004

.... Perhaps euro will rise forever and nobody will buy usd.

When I read that kind of things I will rather wait for a correction which looks very near.

melbourne farmacia 09:43 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
london aas 09:31 GMT November 24, 2004
Try running fib projections + channels... very tech market.

Sydney ACC 09:37 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
You live in hope waiting for ECB to intervene. BOJ maybe but I reckon they would be happy enough with USD/JPY at current levels, given what's happened elsewhere.
I read three weeks ago where Hugo Boss could live with EUR/USD up to 1.40 anything above that would start to hurt.
Nevertheless a substantially lower USD isn't going to help greatly. Twenty five per cent of the trade deficit relates to oil and as USD goes down oil will go up.

Bris TW 09:35 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Raised all stops to 1.8700 to lock in 450K+

Bris TW 09:33 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Only 50 pips from my 1.88 target from 1.8070 is looking good.

London JMB Futures 09:31 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Just wondering what people here think about possibilty of ECB/BOJ intervention ... will they really have a go at buying USD when there are such risks present from Russia/Asia CB's on the other side?... theres a lot of weight in the mkt... no?

london aas 09:31 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
looks like eurousd still has plenty of strength in it and as it reaches new highs there are no historical or technical barriers. It surprises me because Euroland isn't growing whereas, for all its deficits, US is. Perhaps euro will rise forever and nobody will buy usd.

Looking at charts for this one is a complete waste of time and is no different from betting no horses or dogs. No wonder so many get hammered on fx, while only a tiny few make money. I thought the stock market was irrational until I was introduced to this fx roulette.

slv sam 09:30 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
$/cad price action tells us very cleary where e/$ is heading today...to 1.33?GT

KL KL 09:27 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
everybody knows high currency is bad for country but does nothing...talking for 12 months maybe tonight is the action night!!MAYBE....only US laughing at the way...ho ho ho...its Christmas!!

London. 09:22 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder Wednesday repeated that the euro's recent rise over $1.30 is reason for concern because of its impact on the country's exports-reuters

KL KL 09:20 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8753 out 48 +5...

Auckland 09:20 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips
On your web page I was not able to see futures or stocks; after clicking blank page is coming up (with yahoo adds in top right corner only)

RAM CITY JAMMER 09:18 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
The Shepherd from the land of where men are men and sheep tremble has spoken....baaaaaaaaaaaaack later....

Auckland 09:14 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Good morning world
Good morning traders...
Looks like $ weakness is coming to the end...
I believe large corection is coming soon...
Monthly charts to look at...

KL KL 09:14 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd 1.8739 +4 ...me think have legs for another pop!!
reshort higher...flat now. Today is ninja trading style

Tobolsk JT 09:10 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 08:58

Me too....

slv sam 09:09 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
anyone believes 1.3220 will hold the euro rise today?GT

KL KL 09:06 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Tobolsk JT...i.e I use max up to 35-40% of margin...unless it jumps 100 pips in 1 seconds then I am buggered

Tobolsk JT 09:03 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 08:58

Realy????

KL KL 08:58 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
short all in gbpusd 1.8743

London. 08:47 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Germany's Schroeder: Euro/Dollar Rate Reason For Concern

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:46 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Might be to PT Euro Here

Surabaya Medallion 08:45 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
I mean USD might be neutral and not bearish if the NFP at 3 Dec is good.

Surabaya Medallion 08:43 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Hmm, at March 2004 when the NFP is good (320+), people still don't care until the NFP at April 2004 (288+). After this people start thinking maybe U.S economy is really good. But after three good months of NFP data then people start to be USD bull.

Chicago Folks 08:42 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Folks, how soon will we see the cheap dollar will put a negative on eurozone and Japan economic? Where can we exactly get this information, trade balance report?

TIA>

London 08:41 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
The Euro strength is doing nothing for Italy, its Nov consumer morale falls by more than expected on pessimism about the general economic situation.

London 08:37 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Tue's USD fall keeps the trend intact. However, the greenback is now approaching the next line of important supports so some vigilance is required as the mkt has become prone to sharp, corrective pullbacks. JPMorgan says

Syd 08:35 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Yen trading lower again BOJ will soon run out of patience with the market or the market run out of patience with BOJ and let the sh.it hit the fan

slv sam 08:33 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
imho:1.3240/50 by this week and any meaningful correction 2-3% might or might not happen early Dec and anycase 1.35 by year end.GT

Syd 08:33 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
EUR ECON: Italian Consomer Confidence -Nov- 103.9 Vs 105.6-Oct

LDN LDN 08:31 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
SHORT-TERM FORECAST ON FOREX MAJORS

London 08:26 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
All the talk of not going to intervene, and the currencies stretched to extremes give me the feeling spec traders may be being enticed into a bull trap by the CB, hearing today from Asian analyst Central Banks have learned from previous intervention - this could be a new tactic

London JMB Futures 08:17 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
On the IMM, USD short positions are at a record level. There is scope for a pullback here, it'll be interesting to see if traders start profit taking before or after the US long w/e.

slv sam 08:13 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
seems that us$$ is heading lower today.GT

Moscow Vasya 08:09 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Im not going to catch 900 non stop pips correction, i mean intraday only

BRISBANE PhD 08:07 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY short stopped 103.66. Remaining long AUD/USD

Moscow Vasya 08:07 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
From the other side, if i wait until correction start is seen, i can loose some pips on it, correction doesnt promise to be very deep. As to 1,32 and higher - i think there's no such rising power now, maybe later, and ready to loose 15-20 pips if i wrong.

Tokyo IM 08:06 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
tk jf 08:04 GMT November 24, 2004// NExt week it is then. I will catch you on this forum to arrange it. gt

tk jf 08:04 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
im sure next week tho -gt-

beirut jb 07:59 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Hi Moscow ,

well chasing top and botom is the most costly trade IMHO

$ "should " make correction after 900 non stop drop against

euro BUT it may drop till 13270 before this or 135....

$ extremly oversold by now but no clear signal to pop yet

GL GT

Ldn 07:58 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
The presence of French military forces in Africa could threaten Franco-African relations, Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi said in an interview in Le Figaro published Wednesday. "What's the French army doing in Africa?" Gadhafi said, adding that France's military presence in the Ivory Coast "risks having a negative influence" on bilateral relations

http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/20041124.FIG0022.html

Tokyo IM 07:54 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
tk jf 07:49 GMT November 24, 2004 // Maybe we can arrange some beer on Friday or so. Could talk a bit if you would like. Good to see some one near by on the forum.

Moscow Vasya 07:49 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Hello and good morning. Do you think people its time already to buy usd?

tk jf 07:49 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
i am toranamon now live near roppongi itchome station

Tokyo IM 07:45 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
[[[Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:42 GMT November 24, 2004
Tokyo IM 07:31 GMT November 24, 2004
///Would be great if You would post the demo's user ID and password as Your Initials...That way anyone here can check...
FXXCM Demos (Can have many Logins)]]] - Once I do that I will make sure to do so.

[[[tk jf 07:41 GMT November 24, 2004
im whereabouts are you in tok?]]] - Central area - Shinbashi station(JR).

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:42 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM 07:31 GMT November 24, 2004
///Would be great if You would post the demo's user ID and password as Your Initials...That way anyone here can check...
FXXCM Demos (Can have many Logins)

tk jf 07:41 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
im whereabouts are you in tok?

London JMB Futures 07:40 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Hello and good morning to all,

So Cable at 2.30 within 2 years - looks like Mr Hughes at BAM could get this right... what do you think?

Ldn 07:34 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Lower exports limit German growth
http://edition.cnn.com/2004/BUSINESS/11/23/germany.economy.reut/index.html

Tokyo IM 07:31 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:29 GMT November 24, 2004// Thank you for explanation, I`ll be sure to try it as soon as I get my hands free. Maybe today on some F*X*C*M demo.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:29 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM 07:25 GMT November 24, 2004 //
well for a while I had the immdiate trend as for the Trend column...(Using 15 mintes)
Now I use the daily Data Trend and Impose day trade Levels on that Trend...
Works Very well after I did that..
Can try it on a demo by FXXCM

Tokyo IM 07:25 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:12 GMT November 24, 2004// The link you posted, is it some kind of proprietary system you have developed ? If so how is success rate of that system. I read through some instructions and if I got it right it will trade automaticaly. Is that right ?

Surabaya Medallion 07:20 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
I know this is thin market but i'm just can't hold myself to see the current EUR/JPY level and think 135.3 should be fair value. So no need to follow me. I think this should be safe until the sharky NY session.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:13 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 07:13 GMT November 24, 2004
EUR/USD : The neutral zone of my daily cycle is located at 1.3044 - 1.3119 and the mid-point reference is 1.3082.


... 1.2970* // 1.2989 - 1.3007* - 1.3026 - 1.3044* - 1.3062 - {1.3082}* - 1.3101 - 1.3119* - 1.3138 - 1.3156* - 1.3175 // 1.3193* ...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:12 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/index.htm
for levels and stop etc

prague viktor 07:10 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 05:29 GMT November 24, 2004. thanks G/T

berlin otto 07:09 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   


Surabaya Medallion 07:01 GMT November 24, 2004
Long Yen at 103.43 to target 135.3.

Do you think that or do you want?
When do you think is this levels possible?

Helsinki iw 07:09 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Guten Morgen. Wie ist Dollar?

Makati Obelix 07:09 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
135.3?

ldn rk 07:09 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
BERKIN OTTO....stop you patronizing manner and be more analytical...you sound like you are trying to convert the masses.....it didnt work with you friend Adolph ..

Surabaya Medallion 07:01 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Long Yen at 103.43 to target 135.3.

berlin otto 07:01 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Good morning - Brisbane, New Delhi, Peking, Tokyo, Seul, Hong Kong, Moscow, Helsinki, Stockholm, Talin, Bruxelles,
all of you !

Many of you waiting for execution of positions
and
my opinion is still alive and my opinion is:
near term gbpusd
must go on the levels 1,8550.
All of you must be patient and all things do whith the very clear rules.

Sydney Ge11Ja 06:57 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
another day another barrier gone

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:49 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
London straw 06:39 GMT November 24, 2004
///
Sorry about post for cable...
U know how this thing is...Hard to tell for sure.

KL KL 06:42 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
rats gbpusd short sl taken..should have taken the pips on offer earlier...oh well another trading day!! usdcad long still alive...berely probably

Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:40 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone, I still believe in the saying that goes (the trend is your friend) very tough to call the tops and bottoms on the FX market. The longs for eur/usd pair have been very kind to me for almost two months now. I know I was one of the retracement speculators way back when I was holding my breath for it. Truth of the matter is that we don’t know how high this pair will go no matter how much information we read or how right we feel about the correction coming soon. So far in my charts I show a strong bullish trend for the eur/usd pair and there is no bearish signals in sight. I will not even talk about the indicators, news and data anymore because they are not as useful in a strong trend as this one right now IMHO. I have some new numbers to present so I will do it and leave some space for other comments. GL GT
Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3100-10 and 3140-50.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3060-70, 3040-50, 3020-30, 3000-10 and 2975-85.
Retracement numbers are 3045-55, 3000-10, 2975-85, 2945-55 and 2910-20.
Support T/L is around 3060-70 and 3020-30.
Support is around the 3050-60, 3000-10, 2970-80, 2930-50, and 2860-50 for now key support is around the 2970-80 area.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3000-10, 2935-45, 2880-90, 2830-40 and 2760-70.

London straw 06:39 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:32 GMT November 24, 2004
Would like to mate.. but lost pips on your cable sell idea...

Syd 06:39 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
The dollar has fallen enough against other major currencies and is unlikely to fall further, Haruhiko
Kuroda, a former top Japanese Finance Ministry official, said Wednesday.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:32 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
EurCad for Position Trader is good sell for 300 to 400 points
Maybe from 1.5700

KL KL 06:18 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
long usd cad 1.1848 fat fingers...LOL

KL KL 06:17 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
LONG USDCAD

Syd 06:13 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Australia's Reserve Bank may have been guilty of understatement when it said in its last monetary policy report that it sees "no pressing need" to raise interest rates. In the report earlier this month, the Reserve Bank said that while there is no need to raise interest rates now, they are likely to rise in time. But the central bank's tightening bias is starting to look hollow, with the latest batch of building activity data published Wednesday pointing to a further slowdown in the key economic sector. After many years of boom, economists expect the building sector to cut into economic growth in 2005. Total building work done in Australia declined 2.7% in the third quarter from the second, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said. Nobody is predicting a collapse in building activity, but the long-desired retreat in general demand appears to be entrenched now. The situation leaves the Reserve Bank free to focus on the main game of quelling inflation. On that front there are few problems.
Some economists quickly stripped back estimates of third quarter economic growth in the wake of the building report.

Anthony Thompson, senior economist at HSBC, now expects gross domestic product growth of 0.7% in the third quarter from the second, down from an original expectation of 1.0%. GDP rose 0.6% in the second quarter from the first. The third-quarter GDP data are due Dec. 1, and housing is clearly set to take some gloss off an otherwise sparkling economy. The slowdown in building activity joins tepid wages growth, low inflation and a sharply rising Australian dollar as clear signals the central bank will hold interest rates for a while yet. Stephen Koukoulas, chief strategist at TD Securities, said the Reserve Bank's hawkishness is mystifying many overseas investors. Having recently return from investor meetings in North America, Koukoulas said international investors are struggling to match the Reserve Bank's comments with evidence the economy has slowed. "The reasons for the confusion were linked to hard evidence of an economy slowing," he said. International investment houses pointed to a year of falling house prices, falls in building approvals, slowing retail trade and credit growth, steady wages and low inflation as evidence the economy was far from overheated.
"Add to that renewed strength of the Australian dollar and a sluggish export response to incredibly favorable conditions, and the disbelief was entirely understandable," he said. AP

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 06:05 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
IMHO EUR before big fall. But sharks watch and very ready
for spike to 3150 for great stop hunting.

LDN LDN 05:56 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD capped by defense offers related to short-dated barrier options with 1.3110, 1.3150 strikes,

Syd 05:52 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Did anyone find our why N.Korea where taking down the statues and pictures of their leader .. problem is with that place we only know whats happening when its began

Syd 05:50 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
toronto dr.unken kat not yet :-))

toronto dr.unken kat 05:48 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Syd 05:43 GMT November
no suprise there ,[probably they already squaring the possies
b4 thakxgiving

any leaks on the tommorows oil invent figure?

London. 05:47 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Worth keeping an eye on !!


BEIJING (AP)--China denied Wednesday it has moved thousands of troops to its border with North Korea, rejecting suggestions of possible political instability in its communist ally and saying economic reforms there are working.
Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei said South Korean media reports that 10,000 Chinese troops were preparing for prolonged deployment along the North Korean border, perhaps in anticipation of political turmoil

gold coast martin 05:43 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   


KL KL 05:38 GMT November 24, 2004
timeframe of 4-5 hours is needed for short gbp pair to move substantially in this current market....g/t

Syd 05:43 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Dealers in Asia are saying that the market is looking for any excuse to the the USD

KL KL 05:38 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
out long usdcad at 1.1856 +10 eurjpy short got taken gbpusd short still hardly moving

gold coast martin 05:29 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
prague viktor 05:12 GMT November 24, 2004
Good day victor.....MOF intervention is becoming more complex than ever due to an increase of funds and CB S ENTERING THE fx market....this creates more manupilation and more liquidity that makes a massive boj intervention less effective....The BOJ realises this, and have adopted methods to suit the current state of the market.....they have adopted a dripping feed affect that injects enough funds into the market to protecr certain levels...in this case the 103 level....so from this point of view their intervention is becoming less effective and the expectations of a massive correction due to intervention should not be relied on currently....there is no direct answer to your question except to say that the BOJ will keep drip feeding the market to protect 103 and depending on market liquidity this drip feeding may be enough to push yen above 10350 to 10420 level....for now....once this tactic works and yen reaches 105 it will be different tactic....g/t

Syd 05:28 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
LDP Policy Chief: No Way Bush Would OK Weak Dlr Policy

prague viktor 05:12 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 03:58 GMT November 24, 2004..G.day! do u see the range 98-108 is a friendly to the BOJ for the next 12-16 weeks..tia

LA Fxnew 05:08 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
well looks like cable wont move that much today..
kinda strange it moved only in 20-30 range during asian

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 04:55 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD 1.3147 1.3041 Buy

Pair Max Min Trend
Buy it today around minimum
PT around Max

NJ RT 04:52 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain
Sorry .... fairly new to this. What do you mean by
EURUSD 1.3147 1.3041 Buy

Thank you

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 04:45 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Relative GM All..
Doing this today

EURUSD 1.3147 1.3041 Buy
USDJPY 104.42 102.45 Sell
GBPUSD 1.8812 1.8624 Buy
USDCHF 1.1606 1.1535 Sell
EURCHF 1.5193 1.5121 Sell
AUDUSD 0.7888 0.7808 Buy
USDCAD 1.1965 1.1790 Sell
NZDUSD 0.7196 0.7022 Buy
EURGBP 0.7024 0.6971 Buy
EURJPY 137.47 134.12 Buy
GBPJPY 195.96 191.47 Hold
CHFJPY 90.47 88.53 Buy
GBPCHF 2.1700 2.1555 Sell
EURAUD 1.6793 1.6563 Sell
EURCAD 1.5741 1.5388 Sell
AUDCAD 0.9428 0.9221 Hold
AUDJPY 82.12 80.58 Buy

NJ RT 04:43 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
For the experts .... Any thoughts about EUR/USD today ?

tk jf 04:41 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
jv - yes it is a feature of that currency when it does decide to move

Syd 04:39 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
MOF Official-FX Moves Rapid/Not Reflecting Fundamentals-Reuters

London. 04:36 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
OPEC Pres:Group Has No Plans To Adopt Euro For Oil Sales

prague jv 04:35 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
jf , it went lower on stop loss orders .
jpy has been overall good to me lateli , but gbp has done some demage into performance for this months.

Syd 04:34 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Australian wine, auto and pharmaceutical exporters are suffering the most from the Australian dollar's run higher in recent weeks, agricultural and mining exporters - who dominate Australia's export volumes - are being cushioned by continued strength in commodity prices, manufacturing exporters - particularly pharmaceutical companies, auto makers and wine producers - are suffering as their prices aren't rising as the U.S. dollar slides,Earlier this week, JP Morgan cut its recommendation on the shares of listed Australian wine maker Southcorp Ltd. (SRP.AU) to underweight from neutral, citing the rising Australian dollar as a threat to the wine group's recovery. While momentum has carried SRP's share price over the last few months, we believe that its valuation has now become sufficiently stretched, particularly given the rise in the Australian dollar
The Australian dollar was trading near US$0.7850 Wednesday, compared with around US$0.7000 at the start of September.
An exporter confidence survey released Wednesday showed exporters are increasingly worried about the strengthening Australian dollar. The DHL export barometer found 70% of exporters surveyed said the exchange rate had a negative impact on sales over the past 12 months, compared with 60% in the May survey. Of the exporters who said they were hurt by exchange rates, 92% said the stronger Australian dollar had directly impacted their profits, 76% said it had hurt sales and 71% said it had an impact on prices. Earlier this week, Australian Treasurer Peter Costello waded into the currency debate, saying the stronger Australian dollar makes life harder for exporters and that "will affect our economy."
Australian Trade Commission

tk jf 04:26 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
jv - finally you get some reward for that euryen its taken a week to look better and stop testing the downside

prague jv 04:21 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
for now my favorite possies are long eur/jpy and long eur/usd . still room to run imho

KL KL 04:02 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8680...I think longs are starting to trim position for Thanks Giving.

long usdcad 1.1846

short eurjpy 135.55

That's about all the 3 major currency trading continent...LOL

pr jv 04:00 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
keppe= keep , i d better stop posting , confusing enuf here even my self :>))

tk jf 04:00 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
its just thinner mkt and some funds are sqrg some positions - in one case i saw a large yen fund do some hedging as they have large yen risk - so twice this week they bought 102.90-103.00 earlier and 103.40 today - gt

gold coast martin 03:58 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 03:07 GMT November 24, 2004
One of the reason the [MOF] probably cannot intervene so easily is that FB issuance outstanding has risen to Y93tln in end of Jun as a result of massive interventions, and further FB issuance for intervention Yen funds would have a serious risk of interest rates rise despite increased intervention limit to Y140tln.Due to this we may have already seen INTERVENTION in a limited form...what they call the drip feed method...in efforts to keep yen over 103...the boj minutes for october should be interesting reading later on today....g/t
This was posted earlier today......still applies....

prague jv 03:56 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
prague jv 01:11 GMT November 24, 2004
There was a typo . eur is not 1.3073 but I ment 1.3037

To keppe it updated , now the level is 1.3040

hk mom 03:56 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
BOJ is coming.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:48 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative selling will increase if the market is trading below 1.3082 which is the daily cycle quantized level.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:45 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : the congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.3035 - 1.3128 and the mid-point reference is 1.3082.


... // 1.3035* - 1.3059 - 1.3082 - 1.3105 - 1.3128* // ...

Syd 03:35 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
S Korean Economists Agree Some FX Intervention Necessary

Hong Kong Qindex 03:28 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is still range trading within the expected trading range of 1.2907 - 1.3156. The key quantized level, "Super Magnet", is positioning at 1.2907 and the neutral zone is 1.2987 - 1.3032.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:04 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:03 GMT November 24, 2004
EUR/USD : As shown in my monthly cycle charts a projected barrier is positioning at 1.3094 - 1.3106. The current expected trading ranges from my Monthly Cycle are as follow :-


A) : ... // {1.2907}* - 1.3032 - (1.3156) - 1.3280 - 1.3405* // ...



B) ... // {1.2907}* - 1.3004 - (1.3101) - 1.3198 - 1.3295* // ...


C) ... // {1.2907}* - 1.2987 - (1.3066) - 1.3145 -1.3224* // ...


Los Angeles ss 02:59 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
FX New -- not an expert, but can't believe this won't retrace sometime overnight to around 1.8640. I think that might be a critical pivot, for bounce up then up, or if a sustained break sell off lower. Cable has a way of substantial retracements. Think it's pretty overbought now.

LA Fxnew 02:57 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
well ...
no clear direction for cable today...
any expert can give their idea pls ?
thanks

prague jv 02:43 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
the long/short ratios on eur/gbp is very short at the moment , makeing it hard to come down , as spec are allready short .
Thus eur should lead the bulish side and gbp bearish .

Minnesota U-Genius 02:19 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Sold Eur/Jpy @ 135.45

Hong Kong Qindex 02:16 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 02:16 GMT November 24, 2004
USD Index : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is vibrating around 83.46 with an expected magnitude of 82.83 - 84.10 for the time being. Projected supporting and resistant point is located at 82.19 and 84.73 respectively. In the last trading session the market (Dec) closed at 82.99. It hit the low at 82.85 and the high at 83.54.


... // 82.19* - 82.83 - 83.46 - 84.10 - 84.73* // ...

hk ab 02:08 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
nt//did you add last night?
I put some on eur/jpy.

wellington am 02:04 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja 01:54 GMT November 24, 2004
Probably the normal daily forward selling by local importers - especially at these levels.

Brisbane PhD 01:55 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Short Usd/Jpy 103.36. Initial stop 103.62

Sydney Ge11Ja 01:54 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Intersting move down by NZD but I cant find any associated news, can anyone help please?
Although my timing was out badly yesterday I just cant buy into this USD fall, if we reject again around 1.3100 maybe a more substantial correction is due, CB officials have been strangely quiet of late maybe they come back in force when Europe comes in.

GL n GT

Sydney 01:48 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Australian exporters increasingly worried about strengthening AUD, with 70% saying exchange rate had negative impact on sales over last 12 months, compared to 60% in May. Survey taken in late September/ early October, when AUD/USD around 0.72 ,last at 0.7854

Gen dk 01:46 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Minnesota U-Genius 01:36 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Thank you wellington am 01:24 GMT ,
I'm still waiting for Eur/Jpy to short, maybe another spike and then short term down trend

hk ab 01:30 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone know how much does that 1.31 option holder need to pay for that "extra" pip last night?

Atlanta-South 01:25 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT: mho it looks to be more range bound. I've longed & shorted it over the last 6 hrs. Really hard to say for sure. @ this time I'm out of it for the HOLIDAY. GL GT

wellington am 01:24 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Minnesota U-Genius 01:10 GMT November 24, 2004

Good call Eugiene

Timbuk 2 01:23 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Pls load up EUR/USD stops above 1.3150, we need acceleration to 1.3250.

berlin otto 01:19 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Good morning,
I see that the market is very thin
but the other side I mean that all majors are overbought.
Reaction on the Russia is to hard.

But we now don t know how Thanksgday and the news moving market in next 12 hours.
I mean that eur and others are strong too much and I am waiting in coming hours or daeys strong corrrections.

prague jv 01:11 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
whatching
gbp 1.8576 level . above long , belowe short .
eur 1.3073
134.75
0.6978
usd 103.56

Minnesota U-Genius 01:10 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Minnesota U-Genius 23:11 GMT November 23, 2004
Hello, Looks like a good sell is coming soon on NZD/USD, GT to all

Sell is working good

NJ RT 01:07 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Any thoughts about EUR/USD in the next hour?

Syd 01:07 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Australia's 1.7% construction activity fall in 3Q vs 1Q "quite a bit weaker" than his expectation for 1% rise. Weakness was in nonresidential building (down 8.7%). adds downsides risks of forecast 0.9% rise in GDP in 3Q vs 2Q
censored

London. 01:05 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Fed Lacker: To Take Actions Necessary To Curb Inflation
Can't Wait For Inflation Signs To Hike Rates
Fed Can Contain US Dlr Impact On Inflation
Economy Can Cope With Oil At Current Levels

Syd 00:58 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Any Newzealander know what Bollard has been saying said to be negative Kiwi

London 00:56 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG pleasure

Syd 00:55 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Blunt words from a senior official at China's central bank have helped calm speculation about when China might revalue the yuan and served as a reminder that any such move will come on Beijing's terms.
Rate Hikes will be the way they will be going

SanFrancisco TG 00:55 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
London - thank you for the economic information, been very helpful to me.

Syd 00:52 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
RBA wont be doing any futher rate hikes with housing data falling

London 00:51 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Germany's biggest banks, including HVB Group and Deutsche Bank AG -- following close on the heels of Commerzbank AG -- are preparing for a fresh round of job cuts that will number in the thousands Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank and Munich-based HVB Group are working on restructuring plans involving thousands of job cuts as part of strategic reviews to be presented in early 2005.

Sydney 00:49 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
AUS ECON: Q3 Building Work Down 2.7%, Much Weaker Than Expected

Syd 00:43 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
AUD drop after Australian building activity falls 2.7% in 3Q from 2Q; result will weigh on forecasts for GDP in quarter

Ldn 00:35 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Investment in fixed assets in China, the main driver of the economy over the past two years, is still growing too fast and Beijing is watching to see if interest rates need to be raised again, Li Ruogu, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, told the Financial Times.

Syd 00:31 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Australian Building Activity -2.7% In 3Q Vs 2Q

to bc 00:26 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
Talk in market is there's still a chance of BOJ intervention in USD/JPY, which may keep pair supported; several banks including Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley say there's some talk BOJ may take advantage of thin conditions around Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow to get more "bang for its buck." Some add BOK's recent intervention in USD/KRW has heightened chance of BOJ following suit

prague jv 00:21 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy might pullback some to 134.80 , but direction is cleary up with mid term leaving fresh oversold teritory . There are still scpec . acc. still short eur/usd in wrong level for them , looking at open trade statistics . GL

San Diego DC 00:13 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
EUR/$,
Does anyone think it could go to 1.3170 area?

beirut jb 00:10 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
10x i found it

JAPAN SEPT TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX RISES 0.1% ON MONTH

beirut jb 00:08 GMT November 24, 2004 Reply   
hi

what was japan numbers plz?

 




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Mon 27 May 2019
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