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Forex Forum Archive for 11/25/2004

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SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 23:55 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
beirut jb 23:31

Salam

if no stop loss...account will be zero

Ldn 23:53 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
ECB Trichet is said to be having press conference 1500 GMT I he hints at imminent FX action, or possibility of their taking specific actions soon to prevent rises in the euro could support USD

Ldn 23:45 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Barclays Ups Fed Rate Call To 4%

shanghai bc 23:42 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   

SYDNEY 23:22 -- Good morning..I was wrong on that and that was not a fluke call..But I always cover my trades too..That is why I am still in the market after so many years..This game is all about making as much as you can when you are right and losing as little as you can when you are wrong..Simple as that..If anyone dreams of surviving in this market with always correct calls,he is definately a newbie waiting to be baptized by harsh realities of the market..

beirut jb 23:42 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
no reaction from market to japan CPI !!!

Syd :-( 23:41 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc dont you feel the US are smart enough to know what you have said there and wouldnt jeapodise the huge bond market in such a way, this is one thing that Greenspan has been concerned about throught 1990s a reoccurrance of 1995 , it seems inconceivable that they would cause such stress in the financial markets deliberately.

Atlanta-South 23:34 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
LA FXNEW: I think the next 30 mins for F X C MMMMM. That should b 7:00PM cst.

shanghai bc 23:32 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   

SYD -- Good morning..This is a policy driven forex market..US side wants to devalue Dollar as a way out..And there are 2 trillion Dollar mountain by greater China and Japan and another 2 trillion by overseas Chinese..Their sentiment and pockets may affect dollar beyond shape as long as UD treasury is waving devaluation flag..Mainland chinese have around 0.5 trillion Dollars private holdings ..Dollar's external value may have a lot to do with them as well..Sentiment is everything in forex market..And the prevailing sentiment is "give me anything,just anything, that is not Dollar"..

Sydney 23:32 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
ANZ are saying if BOJ intervenes short-term risk of slide back to 7600-7700

beirut jb 23:31 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
good morning all

euro move up for this week should be done here, any further significant pop today is unlikely coz whould put euro on panic mode buying imho,

euro charts are Over boughts weekly to 30 minutes,

market net long euroon record hi,

i calll for a correction today to 13210 at least,

next week : correction resume or 135 would be brinted .....

GL GT


Shenzen Smog 23:29 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Why do the bad calls by the gurus often get deleted? Try searching for some bad calls by the so called gurus, they are gone.

nyc sa 23:27 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Maybe the uptrend will continue until tuesday nov 30 with the US Gdp numbers , consumer confidence etc.. maybe then the market will start going back to fundamentals ,who knows ..

sydney 23:22 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc- you must be buying more Usd/Jpy now. is buying Usd/Jpy 110 still the money making strategy for the whole year?

Syd :-( 23:19 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc are you saying we aint gonna get any more dips

LA Fxnew 23:17 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
missed a good sell entry point due to platform closing .. :(

anyone know when will fxcmmmm open again?
thanks

LondonJoe 23:16 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
BC - no fluke... just fabulous vision... well done...

shanghai bc 23:13 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   

PJT -- Good morning..That was a fluke call..Good trades..

CB -- Good morning..I treat that as a sign of last leg of Dollar devaluation..The public is always the last one to join the party..But this last leg could be a very long one too.

pd cumino 23:10 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
CB China is not exactly as LDN and NY

shanghai bc 23:09 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   

IRISH -- According to BOJ branch folks in China,they will start intervening anytime now with the aim of keeping 100 floor intact..

Halifax CB 23:07 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai BC - there was some mention of this on the radio a few nights ago, in a special on China - they said that lots of just regular people in Shanghai are queueing up at banks to sell dollars for Euros. Are you seeing that?

pd cumino 23:02 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
I guess BC that in the case will be the others well ahead that will say enough is enough. By a Treasury perspective the NFA poaition is only improving.

London. 23:00 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
The only thing I can imagine with Greenspan turning a blind eye , is that he has the ability to turn it around if he so wishes, especially with the spec market busting at the seams and pockets bulging with Euros you can only stretch a peice of elastic so far before it snaps

Colorado Chief1Oar 22:58 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
la sol....

try ACME FOREX....

Toronto ErikB-Forex 22:58 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Are there any currency traders here from Toronto, Canada?

I've been a currency trader since early 2002. Been following currency markets since early 2000. I trade both spot and futures. Working at Questrade in Toronto now.

I would love to chat and start a little online community if possible. Give me a shout!

Happy trades!

ErikB-Forex
[email protected]

Porto PJT 22:56 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc , hi bc, hope you are fine, your call on euro when was around 1,20/22 level was very good.gt to you.

Chicago Irish 22:56 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
BC....Question for you if you don't mind....the Usd/Jpy decline has lagged other pairs significantly....in your opinion will it speed up or continue at it's very leisurely pace?

Chicago Irish 22:53 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
la so....a trial would convince me all right...so long as it's followed by incarceration.

Porto PJT 22:53 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
la so 22:49 GMT , if you do 80% why you need others money?even if you start with 500 usd in a mini account in 1 year you have more than you can spend and i see you in this forum for more than 1 year...........

Chicago Irish 22:52 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Yup BC.....cheers mate.

Syd 22:51 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Australian PM Howard makes clear he's not happy about prospect of AUD continuing its upward trajectory, putting drag on exporters at a time when global economic outlook is positive. Treasurer Costello generally sidesteps commenting on future direction of currency, rates, but Howard will sometimes say out loud what government is thinking.

shanghai bc 22:49 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   

IRISH -- Good morning..The prevailing thoughts among traders on this side of the Pond at present..That is sell Dollar no any bounce till US Treasury says enough is enough..

Syd :-( 22:46 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
We may get a shot across the bows by the BOJ with help from a few other Asian Banks

nyc sa 22:46 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai ,hi , how low u think USDX can go before buying the dollar ?

Tokyo IM 22:43 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Goodmorning all.

Chicago Irish 22:39 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Shades of John Connolly BC?

shanghai bc 22:33 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   

It is not the Euro buying that pushes up Euro..It is simply the reducing the Dollar mountains that is pushing up the Euro..The world is still full of Dollars with very little Euro..US Treasury and the Fed folks finally showed their last card,the Dollar devaluation card and the market is faithfully following their wish..For Asia,that means simply reducing trillions of Dollars of savings into something which is not Dollar,like Gold or Euro.. ECB or BOJ may have a tough time even with their interventions when US side is waving their Dollar devaluation flag in public..Under the present environment,the floor of Dollar is when US Treasury feels fear of Dollar asset collapse if Dollar starts fast collpase at some stage..At the present leasurly decline of Dollar and Dollar assets doing fine,US Treasury will be rejoicing now..Maybe the Treasury folks are thinking,who cares about you,Eu or Japan,it is all your fault we have to devalue Dollar..

nyc sa 22:29 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Chicago ,the bounce will come when u see USDX around 80 , there I feel it would be safe to start buying the dollar . Anyone agrees ?

LondonJoe 22:29 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Johnny Howard should be happy , a nice dividend on his way from the RBA as they t/p on some more of their 18-20 bio AUD purchases from .60-4750 a few years ago....nice trading.. im sure the RBA is smoothing out the rally as they stemmed the decline...

Cape Town 22:28 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Anyone have equivalent euro levels for a 78 level in the dollar index? Thanks.

Syd 22:26 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
AUD comments by PM John Howard fit with most official thinking. Rising AUD/USD, now nearing seven-year high set February, crimps export growth, which is key to overall economy. Ideally pair should head back closer to 0.7000, vs last 0.7926, with Howard concern reflective of feedback to him "from a lot of Australian exporters Commonwealth Bank

Chicago JMI 22:24 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 22:21 GMT November 25, 2004
Problem is there hasn't been many bounces. I'm still waiting for one. :-)

nyc sa 22:21 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
The more CB's say how the low dollar hurts their economies the lower the dollar goes and the higher all other currencies ,keep selling the dollar on every bounce .US treasury is not done yet selling .

Gen dk 22:14 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 22:13 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Australian Prime Minister John Howard said Friday he wouldn't want the Australian dollar to continue climbing as that would undermine the nation's global competitiveness
Howard told Melbourne radio station 3AW.

sydney gvm 22:13 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB - yep its 9:12am on a beautiful day here in Sydney

Tallinn viies 22:12 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
oh dear oh dear. have been hanging here from 1,3080 level just to get properly long on euro. have missed 200 points....
this is of course nothing but spending time and nerves sitting too many hours up.
G, ok, leaving now. put out order to buy euros at 1,3248.
stop at 1,3161. Im out of here.

Ldn 22:11 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
A special adviser to France's finance minister Nicolas Sarkozy said Thursday that he is concerned about the volatility and the pace of the euro's rapid rise, as well as its current levels.

Jean-Pierre Jouyet, an adviser on international economic affairs to the Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry, also said there is no reason for further dollar weakness.




austin st 22:10 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
AMC -- 102.37 bid was the low on this latest dip...currently back @ 45/48...

Halifax CB 22:06 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Is that Sydney just opening up now? Never can keep the times straight....

houston st 22:04 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
from MMS:
[EUR/DLR] fills 1.3250 triggers, and stop executions follow in thin conditions. [DLR/YEN] dips to 102.40, and continued downside firmness accordingly lifts the [EUR/YEN] higher. Dlr/Yen's 102.40 bids are a bit strange again.

Halifax CB 22:00 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
I figure it's not the US at all, other than perhaps a nod in the right direction. The big issue is China, which needs to increase it's exports to the EU (it's the next big market for them) while keeping their business ties with the US. What easier way than using the massive $ reserves they've acquired over the last decade or two to buy Euro? They just have to do it at a pace that keeps the RMB and USD fixed.

Syd 22:00 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Australia's PM: Wouldn't Want A$ To Keep Rising

Syd 21:59 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Its 9a.m. Sydney open

Tallinn viies 21:58 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
BoE's Bean:Further Substantial Decline In Dollar Likely

Minnesota U-Genius 21:57 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
yes, very strange spike any ideas?
, tia

austin st 21:54 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   

AMC -- $yen back near the daily low...not looking good...currently 102.41/44....happy turkey day to you...

Los Angeles ss 21:54 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Holy hannah what just caused the spike in everything???? Dollar just dumped!!!!!

Syd 21:41 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
When Soros attacked the GBP the treasurer raised rates by 2bpts. the best way for the ECB to attack this situation is to shock the market with a 1% rate reduction.

wellington 21:38 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Wien GD 21:27 GMT November 25, 2004
Helsinki CeCom ... what i started thinking about ... WHO is buying all that sold $'s???

Good point , who

London 21:36 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
LINK

London. 21:35 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Strong Euro, high oil prices hurting German morale, survey shows
Link

And Sinn urged the ECB to step in and clip the wings of the euro, which rose above 1.32 dollars on Thursday.
"I'd intervene now," he told the German news channel n-tv. "Speculation is driving exchange rates up and down and the economy is b

Helsinki CeCom 21:32 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
exactly at these levels not many private and institutional investors dare to buy the EUR.

Wien GD 21:27 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki CeCom ... what i started thinking about ... WHO is buying all that sold $'s???

Helsinki CeCom 21:21 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
I have heard another theory lately, what if everybody is talking about an intervention of the ecb, bu what if if the current aggressive move is an interverntion from the Fed.

The more I think about it the more it could be, think how aggressive the EUR is climbing right now, taking out one resistance after another. I mean even important stats in any direction just get ignored.

I think it is at least an intresting theory.

ny amc 21:19 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Yes. I am on someone elses computer and it is a Mac and for whatever reason the tickers dont work

Halifax CB 21:18 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
ny amc - did you try bringing up the "FX+ticker" page from the home page? Just a thought....

ny amc 21:14 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Moscow...Thanks and if u could please post again in 30 minutes

Moscow Vasya 21:04 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
102,53-102,57

ny amc 20:59 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
can someone post usdjpy price

prague viktor 20:31 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
the only one who know where is the end is Mr USD killer mr Green..nothing is for sure 100% but i heard about a very strong wall at 1,36-1,38 level wish u all a nice thanks giving day and G/T all

London. 20:28 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
LondonJoe hi joe, yes I realize that they had it rough this year with the stagnation in the markets , thats what i am saying they could take profits and move the market quite fast If they get a whiff the CB's are going to spoil their party they could beat the CB to it. it really is a test of nerves.

Antwerp Tom 20:20 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
3) Average: +1432 --> 1.3656 57 days --> 12/6/04

before any sizeable correction sets in.
FWIW of course. Happy thanksgiving. GL GT

NJ RT 20:19 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas ... where do you see usdjpy in the next hour or so?

Antwerp Tom 20:18 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Take a look at the weekly €/$ chart (trying to spot similar steep hills) and see that it has happened before:

A) 1.0560 (4/7/03) to 1.1933 (5/26/03): +1373/50 days
B) 1.1374 (11/3/03) to 1.2866 (1/5/04) : +1492/64 days
C) 1.2224 (10/11/04)to ? (?/?/?)

Theoretical scenarios: (without CB intervention)

1) +1373 --> 1.3597 50 days --> 11/29/04
2) +1492 --> 1.3716 64 days --> 12/13/04

LondonJoe 20:17 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
London - re hedge fund comment and not taking prisoners.. hedge funds in general have had a horrible year , see
http://www.srimedia.com/artman/publish/article_891.shtml
for their returns up until the end of October they have been very poor.. most earning a measly 1-2 pct ytd.... granted they have been on this USD sell-off move and probably have made more money this month as an event driven fund and in currency classes than they have all year.. however.. we are coming into year end and many wind down risk ahead of year end , book profits etc,, also their ammunition and fire power is not that great ,,, once they see the champagne being taken away from their party here they will all run for the exit door IMHO..... on the other hand though the real demand for diversification out of greenback is well documented... CHINA and RUSSIA....

Tallinn viies 20:01 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
London 19:42 GMT - I do not agree with you.
from old times when I worked for banks I remember those days like last couple of them (I call it trading with eyers closed) easiest to trade. when you see all day how spec customers want to try pick a top and also from corporate hedgers all euro sellers have sold it and euro buyers sitting and hoping. and time is ticking for them.... tick tack tick tack
those days are easiest to trade when you see behind the scenes. last days are exactly those ones.
so, I would say interbank and funds getting all the profits and loosers are mostly small specs and late comers from corporates. those who want to hedge their dollar recievables but still hoping the get levels.
imho of course

Barcelona Tony 19:59 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Gep ... u appear offline in msn

ny amc 19:57 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas..Gep. thanks. please post it again if it approaches 103

Dallas GEP 19:55 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
102.55 usd/jpy now

Halifax CB 19:55 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
LDN - you're right of vcourse, I think this is what's called the 3rd phase of the Dow Theory?

Dallas GEP 19:54 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Valdez, YES I do think Euro is a about to run out of beans. I thoought that before at lower levels tho!! LOL Actually there is some extremely nice range trading that develops during these periods like that 1.3140 to 1.3170 area earlier. That was good for about 5 trips until it broke long when usd/chf broke to the downside. Good pip raiding opportunities setting up in the next 3-4 days IMO Have to be VERY quick tho. Most should not play IMO

ny amc 19:54 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
can someone post an update on usdjpy price. Thanks

Santo Domingo tht 19:47 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Cape Town posted an interesting link on the Financial Forum, worth a read.

London 19:45 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
LondonJoe I would be surprised if the CB are that stupid or is the US doing this deliberate !!

London 19:42 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies I would say that most of the smaller spec traders are now sidelined due to the expensive levels of most ccy's but the big players can afford to push this to extremes unless stopped by the CB's therefore this is no longer a normal trading enviroment two way trading , will become turbulent,uncontrollable what ever you want to call it. Hedge funds dont take prisoners

LondonJoe 19:42 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Verbal dioreah will get the Bank of Jokers (BOJ) and the European Circus Bunch (ECB) nowhere... it's a one way bet at the moment to bash the greenback that could accelerate fast from here ... something that even the US admin will not be happy with... a wholesale USD meltdown ... stocks and US treasurys - all assets will get hit very hard in this scenario ...

Tallinn viies 19:34 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
London 19:11 GMT November 25, - thnks.
two intresting points.
1. BOJ intervened last year during thanksgiving
2. ECB silence after G-20

uuaaahh, we see blood on streets soon. not sure if we see 1,37 or 1,27 but violent move ahead imho

Ldn 19:34 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB with the technicals and fundamentals out the window ,I think all we have left is the Casino mentality or a game of Russian Roulette 'will they, wont they' who will blink first , when Drudge has the Dollar as his header its time to start to worry

Halifax CB 19:26 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
London - LoL - I hope you don't mind but I have post it note on my screen about BoJ ready to intervene, ECB ready to intervene, blah,blah,blah...Don't know how long it's been there. Death, taxes, and intervention are all things you can't avoid, and each leads to its own sorts of bad days. But if you're careful, there's only one you won't survive :)

Ldn 19:22 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
As its quiet a bit of info to read.

ECB Must Act at $1.35
by Ashraf Laidi

is becoming increasingly accepted that the European Central Bank will have to act in the event that the euro nears the $1.35 level, which is the equivalent to the 1.45 low in the USD/Deutsche mark attained in summer 1995. In addition to US officials’ laisser-faire attitude towards the dollar decline, European monetary officials have also contributed to the dollar’s decline by reiterating that the pace of euro appreciation was more material than absolute levels. EU Monetary Commissioner Al Munia said the Eurozone could remain competitive with the euro at current levels as long as there were no sharp movements. But with Eurozone growth projections being downgraded to as low as 1.7% in 2005 from 2.0% in 2004, an accumulated strengthening in the currency will run counter to the strengthening of the overall economy.

London 19:11 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
ECB ready to intervene if needed-monetary sources
Thu Nov 25, 2004 11:02 AM ET
By Stella Dawson, Chief ECB Correspondent
FRANKFURT, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Don't count the European Central Bank out when it comes to currency market intervention.

Discussions with euro zone monetary officials over the past week have shown that the ECB is watching the euro's climb extremely closely and would welcome an opportunity to put some two-way risk back into a market that now sees selling U.S. dollars as a one-way route to riches.

But the ECB would choose its timing very carefully, only jumping when euro buyers are looking overstretched and the market is ready for a turn, euro zone central banking and finance ministry officials told Reuters.

"ECB intervention is likely at some stage, but it has to take the market by surprise in order to be effective," one financial policymaker said.

The ECB would pursue "tactical" intervention, limited and well timed to deter the market from believing that dollar selling is a one-way bet, he said.

Another senior policymaker at a euro zone national central bank said intervention was "a weapon in the ECB's arsenal that should never be ruled out."

He said that picking a turning point in the market was the critical element for any decision to intervene so that the central bank can give the market a push and end an unwanted trend.

"The key is to use the weapon judiciously," he said.

The euro drove to a new record high on Thursday at $1.3243 despite weak German business sentiment and there was no sign that market appetite for buying euros was flagging. So there was little sign of an easy entry point for the ECB at the moment.

Euro zone monetary officials said that for the moment the ECB was relying on verbal pressure to try to discourage fast and disruptive currency moves that can upset business planning.

It also hopes that shifting to a neutral monetary policy stance will make the euro a little less attractive.


READY TO POUNCE

But for markets to be complacent would be risky.

ECB Executive Board member Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa pointed out the risks in an interview with Reuters last week. He said the ECB is "neither indifferent nor always absent" and watches the level and the volatility of the currency.

Indeed, speculation has circulated in the currency market this week over whether the ECB might intervene over the next 36 hours at Thanksgiving.

The U.S. public holiday that began Thursday and is often stretched into a long weekend creating thin market trading conditions ideal for manipulating exchange rates.

There is a precedent. The Bank of Japan chose the Thanksgiving period to round out a batch of yen selling in November 2003.

Theoretically, central bankers might concur that the history of intervention shows it has limited lasting effect but that has not stopped most of them from using it at some point.

The ECB cannot afford to misfire, as the Bank of Japan has done by repeatedly throwing money into the FX market to try and halt the upward march of the yen until March.

The Japanese central bank has lost credibility with market players and has given them an opportunity to book some profits before driving the currency even higher.

Instead the successful central bank onslaught must ensure sure traders lose money. That requires lying quietly in wait and then pouncing when the time is right to consolidate an underlying market trend.

That may be what's happening now.

"This radio silence tells me the ECB is ready and waiting -- they know how to inflict damage," said Eric Chaney, head of European economic research at Morgan Stanley.


WHERE AND WHEN?

Exactly where the ECB would enter the market -- close to present levels or at $1.35 or $1.40 -- is very hard to say.

In general, the ECB thinks that the euro zone is resilient enough to weather a stronger overall currency. But it would like to avoid business uncertainty and disorderly markets that fast moves can cause. That is why ECB policymakers stress that it is the speed of the euro's advance that is the primary worry.

It was the rapidity of the climb, for instance, that prompted ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet to verbally intervene on November 8 after the U.S. election to say that recent euro moves "tend to be brutal," said a senior policymaker at another national central bank.

Trichet spoke after the euro had climbed over 5 percent in one. "The speed is the problem more than the level," the official told Reuters.





Hong Kong Qindex 19:10 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Ldn 19:06 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Kuroda on Reuters TV says The dollars tumble to a record low against the euro and four and a half year trough versus the yen is causing headaches globally. and key advisor to the japanese government says enough is enough

Halifax CB 19:04 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Thanks knobula, It'll be interesting to see if it sticks, I maight make enough on my gold shares to keep trading forex for a little while more...

Hong Kong Qindex 18:56 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Toronto Knobula 18:40 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Halifax: I should add, I'm not sure where this is actually trading, but I've noticed the Kitco graph has been having a few problems over the last day or two, I think that's why you see the spike, they just started reporting at that point.

Toronto Knobula 18:37 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Halifax: Re Gold quote. The 451.xx jives with what at least one other site has been showing all day, and given what the USD has done today, I would say it is reasonable.

BOCA TGG 18:28 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone provide a link to where I may learn about FORWARD AND SWAP USES please....an explanation that isn't the text book definitions I want understand what u all would use them for...

BOCA TGG 18:21 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
I hope someone can help me with this I need to know and understand -HOW DOES A TRADER UTILIZE FORWARDS.....WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE IN USING THAT INSTEAD OF THE SPOT WHAT IS THE BENEFIT.....ALSO HOW DO U USE A SWAP WHAT IS THAT FOR....please if you can give me a not too complicated explanation....thanx in advance

Halifax CB 18:16 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Gold bugs - I don't do anything with gold (other than hold a bit of GLD ETF's); but I just checked at kitco.com and they have spot gold at 451.35 jumping up from about 448.50 at noon, NY time. Is this a valid number, assuming NY is closed? TIA..

Philadelphia Caba 18:13 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 18:05 GMT November 25, 2004

GEP, keep posting your view on eurchf, eurgbp .. am interested in. Thanks.

London 18:13 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
The number of unemployed persons in Germany is set to rise this November by 55,000 to 4.24 million from 4.285 million last November The figures given are based on calculations from the German Labor Office, Die Welt says, without naming its source. The Labor Office is due to publish jobless figures for November Dec 2.
Die Welt
(www.welt.de )




quito_ecuador_valdez 18:10 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Hi GEPster,
What's our take amigo,,do you feel as I do that E/$ is just about to run out of beans & retrace (200-500 pips) to form another abrupt peak afterward, or keep going to 1.33-1.34 and then retrace? (going by 3 year chart?) Historically when a big retrace happens on the 3 yr. chart it's murderous (well, very NICE for shorter-ers.) then very nice afterward for longs. Happy TG amigo.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:08 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
if I had that bad of repuatation
then all these people would after me
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/
check the stats at the top right

boston mpd004 18:06 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Gee, I wish I had a burro, but I think there's a ban on them in the city here. :o)

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:05 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
133400 = 1.3400 Getting rusty after being offline a bit!

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

Dallas GEP 18:05 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Hm...well while the US is away, the usd bears will play!!! LOL No secret that usd/jpy should be LOWER than it is now so take that for what it is worth Certainly it is being propped up and since I am sure the Asians anticipated this dollar bear run, it is probably also why no real attempt at intervention was attempted yesterday. They certainly won't go by themselves!!! Anyhow, several attempts at reversal possies were attempted this week with about 65% success so that's certainly not good enough. More would have been made by playing continuations EVEN when heavy resistance was met. So starting with Friday, probably will play more NON usd possies like eur/chf, eur/gbp, etc. More patience with USD bear positons I think will pay off well too even if the face of some minor retracements. Caution is in order lest we ALL get thinking SHORT the dollar and the CB's sweep in!!!

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:02 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Iraq War Topping $5.8 Billion A Month..just a stat for interest.

Won't be online much for 1 week, still moving house/office. Closing my E/$ 1.2420 tomorrow...today's value = +800 pips...maybe more mañana, boys. Whatever, I'm closing.

Why Valdez closes now? History..last 2.5 years indicates when a "big rise" gets to 1000 pips above its origin, (as it has today..1.22 to 1.32) it becoves vulnerable for a sizable dip to form another peak a littlee later (the ole double peak formations). Check 3 year chart, see one or two dips of (check 3 yr chart) 250-500 pips at the 'BIG' peaks. Any time between now to 133400 is retraceable for position players such as I. Since I'm low risk only, I'll t/p now; if I leave a few on the table..fine. See you all on reg. basis in Dec.

Valdez & burro

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:00 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
any comments PLs? TIA!!

Ldn 17:55 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Iraq Troops Find Chemical Lab in Fallujah
link

EDINBURGH RP 17:55 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
BAHRAIN I have and you have already had specific posts of yours removed before, on this subject.

lj gmc 17:52 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
bahrain you must download Kaspersky anti-virus
its the best for sure

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:49 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Read the archives

EDINBURGH RP 17:48 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
BAHRAIN it's fine that it is your page, but don't recommend it to others when you know you give them a problem by recommending they look at it....

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:44 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
EDINBURGH RP 17:32 GMT November 25, 2004
BAHRAIN please stop posting a link with Trojan Horse virus....///
Plus it's my page

EDINBURGH RP 17:44 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
It's a virus that is very difficult to delete with coventional virus removal software - needs something heavy duty like Pest Patrol;that unfortunately gets rid of good things as well as bad.... Just a lot of hassle no one needs from a supposedly trusted source.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:39 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Comments anyone? TIA

LDN LDN 17:35 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
EDINBURGH RP what is trojan horse virus please

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:35 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
This yahoo geocities..non there

EDINBURGH RP 17:32 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
BAHRAIN please stop posting a link with Trojan Horse virus....

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:31 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/Charts.htm
just added a back dated chart that was for last week
It's the bottom on...can compare if U like!!

Ldn 17:23 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   

Bears Attack Dollar Again, Euro Hits High

LINK

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:20 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
anyone here has this in mind for the euro? TIA
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/Charts.htm

london aas 17:14 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
ny farhat. Need you ask the question. Sell dollars. It's a simple thing to do but appears very effective. Don't overcomplicate and try to start calling 'tops'.

My advice here is for long dated options trading. I have not the faintest idea/interest in what day traders do.

Ldn 16:59 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Dollar Puts Squeeze on European Exporters
For every cent the U.S. dollar drops on currency markets, life gets harder for cuckoo clock makers in Germany's Black Forest
LINK

Helsinki CeCom 16:50 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
I also think that we will see 1,35, but not in the real near future. maybe early next year but now profit taking should be on the menue for a while. Not trying to "talk" the Euro down, its just my opinion..;)

Ldn tom 16:47 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
yes, they are enjoying their turkey they bought by sellinggg their dollars.

Budapest Daniel 16:46 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
now thats what i forgot.. thanks for refreshing my mind ny...

ny 16:45 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
I believe most US online brokers are closed during the day today for the Thanksgiving Day holiday.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:43 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Happy Thanksgiving
Another day and another high for the eur/usd pair right now the resistance is being challenged and here are more resistance points 3260-70, 3300-10 and 3340-50 with main target still around the 3500-30 area IMHO.
I wish a happy and safe holiday to everyone. GL GT

Helsinki CeCom 16:35 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin, not to mee, its just my hurt level for the day. ;)

Ny farhat 16:31 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   


About Eur/Usd ? buy or sell now ?

Thankx

Makassar Alimin 16:22 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
well just got back online, this thin market is certainly used to sell more dollar, 1.32 handle in euro is already seen, next 1.33?
forget about intervention guys, there won't be any this year...
if euro corrects some time in the future, i dont think it is from intervention

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 16:11 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
The War eats wet & dry

HK Kevin 16:06 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki CeCom 15:40 GMT, does 1.3270 have any significance?

HK Kevin 15:58 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
It looks the only force that could drag EUR upmove is EUR/JPY.

Antwerp Tom 15:41 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
B747 We are still looking for the answers... no official clues yet.

Helsinki CeCom 15:40 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
I think thats it for the EUR/USD bull train, for now at least...it should turn down to 1,30 shouldnt it? To gather some steam. Cause they know the highe they go the harde the correction will be.

I at least sold at 1,3210 and 1,3220. Aiming for 1,3040 SL at 1,3270.

//

GOES B747 15:37 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
hi Tom, I fuond the answers...it was about the murder took place in Antwerp.

gt

Antwerp Tom 15:36 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
B747 Are you online? You were looking for me some days ago..
GL GT

van Gecko 15:28 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
hello Malaga boqueron.. how are you? its nice to see a born again? EUUS bull..
yea.. its certainly looking that way so far.. what a sorry rag tag bunch!
happy Thanksgiving..
:)

tanuku rakesh hundia 15:16 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
hi ny karan..
any idea abt where eur/usd heading to..i am frm india and cud u suggest some sites for gold thx...

ny karan 15:13 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   


what about eur/usd signal ??

Malaga boqueron 15:12 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 14:39 GMT re Dollar Bear Brigade vs. Men in Black

The Men in Black seem to be a rag tag bunch unable or unwilling to put up any sort of resistance, short of a few verbal attacks. I'm more worried about the Dollar Bear Brigade leading us to the front, and then leaving us there to fend for ourselves, or worse yet, turning against us.

NJ RT 15:09 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone and thank you for al the help you guys provide to all the newbies like me. I will check back later to see if is any activity, in the meantime enjoy your family and the turkey. See you all later.

Philadelphia Caba 15:02 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Good morning everyone! Have a good time & happy Thanksgiving! GT to all!

Dallas GEP 14:56 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
CDB, not sure. That close on my usd/jpy still resulted in a 36 pip loss as well so net for the day was negative. Platform is closed for me so no trading for me. GD was very right when he posted USD bears still in play but usd/jpy apparently is still being bid up. My advice would be to go with the trend and short USD, USD/CHF to me seems the most bearish. Don't really have any specific entries in mind EXCEPT eur/gbp LONG @ .6985

JHB CDB 14:50 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Hi Gep

I was not so lucky with my USD/JPY long, I left it for the roll-over, also thinking the currency will move north in the early sessions.

Lost 40pips

Next trade?

GENEVA FHR 14:48 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
There are 1.7 trillion dollars holder in Asian Countries non counting Middle-East.Thats tell why doll is weak and will get weaker.

GENEVA FHR 14:48 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
There are 1.7 trillion dollars holder in Asian Countries non counting Middle-East.Thats tell why doll is weak and will get weaker.

Chicago Irish 14:42 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
LOL....can't even spell "Support".

Dallas GEP 14:42 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Well friends as I mentioned I would I squared out prior to holiday close of platform including usd/jpy longs. The intervention thing has not happened yet of course but did see bidding up on usd.jpy from that 102.37 area and got my longs out at 102.65. The AUSSIE shorts were taken out as posted @ +18 prior to that BULL run. Saw that usd/chf continued to be very bearish and without intervention had no chance really to back to my entry on my first set of lots taKEN but did get out at small profit on second set of longs. Have a happy holiday if you celebrate it and alwys remeber money can be easily replaced, family and friends can't.

van Gecko 14:39 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
gvm.. nah, after so many years in this biz you should know anything is possible in this wild & wonderful cesspool..:)
it would certainly make smart sense & much easier for the 'Dollar Bear Brigade' with their collective power to move the Euro back down 10 figures from here then to butt head & fight with those Men in Black for another 8 figures up to 1.40..

GER ad 14:32 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Normalisation in Ukraine will bring EUR/CHF 50-100 pips higher IMHO.

gold coast martin 14:30 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
It will not be anything drastic for the eurozone...just look at it as a euro -ve and a dollar +ve by default....in the short term....

GOES B747 14:29 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
viies, let's pray it will stay as crap!
Ukraine is a test ground and everybody knows that; Poetin will never make the mistake he made in Georgia.

if he did not make the mistake in Georgia, USA and EU never try to play the game that they play now...NEVER!!!
Poetin is a smart leader/person, he will make the picture clear once and for all to USA and EU...does not matter what the price will be....if he fails Russia/Russians as nation/culture will belong to the history books !!!

gt all

sydney gvm 14:25 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 14:21 - mate thats exactly what America would prefer you to think

Dublin Flip 14:25 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
The EU didn't go into Iraq it's hardly going to go into the Ukraine.

Stockholm AGuy 14:24 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 14:22 GMT:

Agree. Much as I sympathize with the plight of the Ukrainians, I have a hard time seeing the situation in that country as particularly relevant to the EU/EZ's fortunes in the foreseeable future.

sydney gvm 14:23 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
gecko - dont cha think we need a bit of a panic $ selloff first? - really this trend has been quite orderly - need a stupid day before we get a smart day IMHO

Tallinn viies 14:22 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 14:21 GMT - come on!
this is real crap.

GOES B747 14:21 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
the current situation in Ukraine is more dengerous for the EU than the situation in Iraq for USA

if the EU will not play according to Poetin's wishes, they will pay a price that will bring all of Europe to be a war zone again.

gt all

Tallinn viies 14:19 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
sydney gvm 14:14 GMT - basically I agree with you but 1,3420 seems too much during next 3 trading days. with 4 days it is possible :)

van Gecko 14:18 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex.. its conceivable for those savvy 'Dollar Bear Brigade' after running up the Euro 10 big figures from 1.22 to lock in their profits here & turn themselve into a bunch of born again 'Dollar Bull Brigade' & run the Euro back down to 1.22 just when everbody & their mothers got caught up with this latest Dollar bear hysteria..
that will certainly please those disgruntled Men in Black, leave all the 1.35/40 bulls biting the dust & save themselve the trouble of having to constantly looking over their shouldlers in fear of intervention..:) no?

rocco.. my pleasure, please contact boss Jay..

sydney gvm 14:14 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 14:05 GMT November 25, 2004
mate I'm looking for a push thru to 134.20 before month end - watching asia all day - there's a ton of long dollar positions put on over the last few days that are wrong and will be aqueezed

NJ RT 14:10 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Bought EUD/USD @ 10 too hope will reach 30 and call it a day

Hong Kong Qindex 14:06 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:20 GMT November 23, 2004
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : .................. The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is located at 1.1637 and the neutral zone is 1.1442 - 1.1637. A projected supporting level is positioning at 1.1389 - 1.1404. A projected resistant level is expected at 1.1803 - 1.1833. ...................

Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

......................................

Curve B : ... 1.1246* ... 1.1344 - 1.1393 // 1.1442* - 1.1491 - 1.1540 - 1.1589 - {1.1637}* - 1.1685 - 1.1736 - 1.1785 // 1.1833* ... 1.1931 ... 1.2029* ...

GENEVA FHR 14:06 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Columbo It is not the Fed who decide intervention but the treasury Dept.If you follow Snow comments i doubt that they will intervene.Also currency reserve are very small and if they intervene it will be a coordinated one. In my view unless we get a real crisis meaning $ lose 10% in a few day i doubt the us will do anything.

Tallinn viies 14:05 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
I think 1,3250 is possible before this hour is over

Sofia QIP 14:04 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
IW// Euronews has practically non stop live coverage of Ukrainian events and I am putting my trust in them, FWIW ).
Nothing there so far.

sydney gvm 14:01 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Bought EUD/USD @ 10 for 15 pips - stop 04

Helsinki iw 14:00 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Al-Jazeera english language website claims Russian commandos are in Kiev, and clashing with demonstrators. No idea as to accuracy of this report.

Colombo marcus 14:00 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
GENEVA FHR : do u think that fed will wait untill that happen

Spotforex NY 13:58 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
I must compliment Zorro on his timely 'zorro zone' postings this year.

GENEVA FHR 13:58 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Comlumbo As i said in my previous post $/CHF i am sure is going to test the historic low on 1995.If by any chance we brake this level CHF will enter unchartered territory. Well anything can happened

Tallinn viies 13:57 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
covered my short euro position here with 15 pips loss.
will sell near 1,3250 again buy near 1,3165/75....

bandung mbonky 13:55 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
RT you hope too much... i think we saw the peak of eur for this week or at least today

Spotforex NY 13:55 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Diamonds are like dollars....over valued. More diamonds then sand. That market will crash some day as well......

Rubies, platinum, paladium are my stones and metals.

Colombo marcus 13:50 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
GENEVA FHR : in usdchf can we the low level of 1.1115 in next few weeks, I feel technicaly it is further bearish?

NJ RT 13:50 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Good morning folks (or afternoon) ... ant thoughts for today on eurusd? will it reach again 3330?

sydney gvm 13:49 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Spot forex & Zorro
sell dollars - wear diamonds

Spotforex NY 13:47 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Hi Zorro!!!!

One of the Swiss Banks objective is 1.4000

I do not see any coordinated intervention until 1.45

Last Nov - the euro stated on a 12 big fig climb...the same is in store for this year??????


happy hunting


spot

EU ZORRO 13:42 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088...Hi friend....!!!!

...It's posible we will see yours 1,4088 this year...!!!!

sydney gvm 13:39 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
sold $/¥ @ 75 for 35 pips - stop @ 91

Genoa nic 13:36 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Certainly 10 y seems on a wall of precipize. If 111,75 , which matches roughly with 200 Dma on yield ( 4.276) breaks clearly, the movement should accellerate (maybe we wait until NFP numbers). My point is that 120 for the bund, or around 3,5 bp, will be a big resistance, and if ever gets there, maybe we'll see some retracement in Euro/$.

Sofia rocco 13:32 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
gecko - thank u. Can I get your e-mail?

Genoa nic 13:28 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
FHR, ok.

London JMB Futures 13:25 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Spot FX is now the main driving factor for Int rate and Bond futures... everyone in futures is watching Spot now.

GENEVA FHR 13:24 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
40 basis points if you prefer

Genoa nic 13:23 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Sorry should read 600 ticks

Genoa nic 13:21 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
FHR 40 pips ?

Genoa nic 13:19 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Vikram, good afternoon

Thanks for the charts about bund / bond differential

Indeed euro/$ breakout occurred when, from late september on, the differential widened drammatically to some 500 ticks currently (bund currently 118,30 vs 112,25 yest close 10y).

120 seems the big level for the Bund (all time high on june 03) and, if long termers decide to cash around that area, maybe we could see a sizable correction for the Euro too

GENEVA FHR 13:18 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Vikram Interest rates differentials means nothing.The difference between 10Years Euro and 10Years Us is ard 40pips.It can easely widen to 100 pips without beeing bullish for the $.If you look at swissy the differential is nearly 200 pips and still the US$/chf is only 300 pips away from its bottom at 1.11.15

van Gecko 13:10 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
rocco 11:57.. with Eur/Cad consolidating for the last few weeks after flying south in unision with the Goose since June could provide some reliefs for DollarCad.. the key to more pain or some pleasure for the Goose here is the raging Euro.. a straight up moon shot to 1.35/1.40 will prolong the pain for the Gooser bulls.. while a near term corrective consolidation by the Euro along with some retracement from Eur/Cad should see some kind of bounce by Usd/Cad..
gl..

Calcutta Vikram 13:07 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Viies.
I've been selling Dollars too, but on a day-trade basis. I will try not to buy the Dollar till I'm reasonably sure that the market is inclined to buy the Dollar. But, at the same time, I would not be buying the POUND and the Euro for the Long term at these levels.

Cheers All.
Best wishes for Thanksgiving and Guru Nanak Jayanti

Tallinn viies 12:59 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 12:44 GMT - thnks. good charts and they clearly illustrate how fragile those bets at current levels are

GER ad 12:57 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/CHF,
Out at 1.5110

saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088 12:45 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..

when $ past years was stronger and stronger vs euro, euro frome 1.17 lost around 25%..

So might be logical in this situation euro winn vs $ 25% above 1.17
U can calculate that..

Have a nice day..
nk

Calcutta Vikram 12:44 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
I would be VERY careful about saying that the GBP-USD is in a LONG TERM uptrend because of what I see on the graph here:
30 Yr GBPUSD Monthly Chart

You might also want to see how the BUND-BOND Differential is now working against the Euro

london aas 12:39 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
manilla stubbs. I do feel sorry for you. If you believe in a trend why don't you do something like covered warrants that gives you gearing, but don't have the capacity to wipe you out in the blink of an eye.

I reckon the dollar is going down, gold is going up and the stock markets are headed up. Of course there'll be pullbacks in the trend, but I'm not going to fret about having missed out on a tiny correction. Remember, you'll never go hungry on a profit. Day trading should come with a government health warning; can seriously damage your wealth!

Never tried it, and never will. Though I do admire the chutzpah of those who reckon they can beat the trend and make zillions in the process.

manila stubbs 12:32 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
london aas 12:19 GMT November 25, 2004

you know that is exactly my problem. try to hold on to my possies, then a small pullback happens, i freak out and liquidate, and get left behind when the uptrend resumes.

london aas 12:19 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
I reckon many fx people have a tendency to overcomplicate matters, and thus miss the bigger picture-trend.
Sydney gvm; Ignoring any short term pullbacks would you agree with me that;

gold is in a long term bull run (500 june '05)
dollar is in a long term bear run (usd gbp 1.95 june '05)

and that for the next 6-10 months stocks look good.

As you can tell, I'm not a day trader as I want a life, and am a notorious coward.

Brisbane PhD 12:03 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Sold AUD/USD long position .7925. + 67p.
Remain short USD/JPY.

Bonn Karl 12:02 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
eur/$ sold 55% of my position 1.3230

Bonn Karl 19:24 GMT November 17, 2004
quito_ecuador_valdez 18:46 / Retracements on eur/$ will be very shallow. Ever since the summer range breakout, L/T funds have been selling USD against the majors, and versus the medium term (in the hope they may get in on dips?). Anywhere between 1.2940/1.2845 is a buy, s/l 1.2825 and the target 132.95/133.40. Below 1.2825, good demand at 1.2735.

gold coast martin 12:01 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
sydney gvm 11:55 GMT November 25, 2004
LOL gvm.....its not friday yet.......

Stockholm AGuy 11:59 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
sydney gvm 11:55 GMT : "watch & weep"

Weep? Why on earth? I'm not warning about following the trend, I'm warning about growing complacent.

Sofia rocco 11:57 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Gecko - pls your view for usdcad. Any retracement before 1.13? :). TIA

Chiicago JMI 11:56 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Seems like a lot of people are getting very comfy with their USD shorts. This is usually followed by CNBC putting up a USD ticker, which is a sure sign of a reversal.

sydney gvm 11:55 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy

wrong buddy - aas is not complacent - he's realistic

Gold 480
DX 81.20

next week - watch & weep

sydney gvm 11:53 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
woops - meant KL nit London aas on that last comment - aas - sorry mate

Stockholm AGuy 11:50 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
london aas 11:39 GMT: "Just keep selling the greenback and sit back, turn off computer"

Ah yes, good ole complacency... now there's a powerful warning sign!

sydney gvm 11:48 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
london aas - is this the first time you have experienced a TREND? Sure looks like it

london aas 11:39 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
kl kl. The charts may be saying blowoff, but the charts, and I repeat again, are meaningless unless/until people start buying dollars.

Just keep selling the greenback and sit back, turn off computer. Those who blindly sold usd since election and ride with trend are doing well. Those who continually reckon they can call the 'top' are getting slaughtered.

KL KL 11:27 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
ok locking my 3 pip gain and going to sleep

Ldn 11:27 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Weak Ifo economic confidence suggests further troubles ahead for the battered German economy. "The Ifo does suggest that the economy will grow at a rate well-below trend in late 2004 and early 2005," notes weak confidence doesn't point to stagnation or recession. Sees ECB first hike in Sep 05, but "major risk" to outlook is a rate cut in spring.
Bank of America

Hong Kong Qindex 11:23 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

KL KL 11:22 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
fwiw long gbpusd 1.8876 sl 7 below hope it reach the sky. sounds crazy to me but charts saying blow off!!

berlin otto 11:19 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Good morning

the small towns arround Europe like

Oslo, Reykjavik, Koln, Dresden, Frankfurt am Main, Krakow,
Toledo, Barcelona, Seviglia, Firenze, Milano, Torino, Padova,
St. Polten, Gratz, and more and more

I wish to all of people of this town have a nice day.
And the others too.

We see today very nice moving and the dollar is battered again.
Today in the afternoon we will have Thanksgiving day.
Have a nice free afternoon.

Today I do not have any sugestion; we wait tommorow/may be/, but I am sure that we start as I promise you yesterday on Monday, Nov 29, 2004.
GL/GT

slv sam 11:12 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
imho e/$: final squeeze up to 1.3340/60 before correction middle of next week.GT

Hong Kong Qindex 11:05 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
JHB CDB 10:54 GMT - USD/JPY : I have posted my daily cycle analysis in my page. Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.



London 11:01 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
IFO"s Sinn Says ECB Action "Now" Would Be Appropriate

HK [email protected] 10:57 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   

KL KL 10:48 GMT November 25, 2004

I think that for example yen may go to around 101.

Which is on simple Tech. basis. No blowoff.

Cad. may move to around 1.1550. still very conservative compare to it's final target.

Maybe shorting Yen at 101 may give a reward.


JHB CDB 10:54 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex

Do you have a view on USD/JPY for a short Term trader at this moment?

HK [email protected] 10:53 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   

For those who are asking final target for euro I refer again to acomputation I made on April.

HK [email protected] 03:08 GMT April 17, 2004


I get Euro target at 1.5641. Frightening? Not so; compared to other doomsday prophets.

At that time some raised eyebrows, but now may not.



For thanksgiving: Those who will kill a Turkey eat my dust!!!

Give you an alternative: http://vegetarian.allrecipes.com/AZ/TofuTurkey.asp

Tofu Turkey I
Submitted by: Becky
"A vegan alternative especially good for Thanksgiving dinner! Serve with a vegetarian gravy and all the fixings. Enjoy!"


KL KL 10:48 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
I think we are in blow off mode ...so sideline until I see it...nice correction to come....may include index crash too...I am in short mode or long on dips

london xyz 10:37 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
beirut jb


11 years



martin...gl and gt to you



cheerio all, i am really going now!!

GOES B747 10:37 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
viies, the prices are dynamic but the routes are static.
while using every tool available to me, I can call that EUR/USD will touch 1.0500 before 1.53/54.

the correction of +/- 1'500-2'000pips starting from MAR/2005 is on route from 1.40/43...looks that we talk about the same number.

gt

Tallinn viies 10:30 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 10:28 GMT - at the moment yes. fx market is dynamic not static. after 3 months there may different situation of course

GOES B747 10:28 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 10:24 GMT November 25, 2004

top is 10% from here: are you saying that or you beleive in that?

gt

london aas 10:27 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
on tuesday someone posted that Bill Bonner of the daily reckoning, moneyweek,fleet street letter etc. was buying dollars and selling gold. Reading what this schlock is doing can be used as an excellent contrarian factor; sell dollars buy gold in other words. The amount of capital investors have lost with his stock market predictions doesn't even bear contemplating.

Better by far is Ken Fisher, whose thoughts can be accessed at fisherinvestments.com

Just keep selling those dollars, especially against eur and gbp. A correction will come, but predicting a pullbacks in a long term bull market is very dangerous. Better to take long dated usd put options.

Tallinn viies 10:24 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw 10:22 GMT - yes, that why Im saying top will be 10% higher from here.
if the speed changes then top at 1,35 may be

beirut jb 10:24 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
london xyz 09:41 GMT

wtg London

hope u will enjoy ur holidays

how many years u r in this business if i may ask??

Helsinki iw 10:22 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
25 bps p.a. is not a currency driver.

London. 10:20 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Tom Hougaard chief analyst Citi Index London, says
S&P in a similar position just before the Crash.
Says the USD very oversold says can see ECB stepping in (time to take some money off the table)for christmas

HK [email protected] 10:19 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
I think gold is on the way to 469.

Cad$. though a silent mover;
That is a bottomless_bottom currency for I get long term target someting between 0.92$ to 0.99$. Or below parity

Tallinn viies 10:17 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
somehow I feel year is near the end. of course as always december offers wild moves without corrections.
year end is good time to look forward: lot of times 4th and 1st quater offer biggest moves of the year. another almost sure thing is that most of the times yearly extremes are done in the 1st Q. most likely in January.
so, to wonder where we go next year we need to now where will be close of the current year :)
my personal feeling says in the situation where interest rate trends have changed and EU/US O/N points almost at bar there are big chances that next year euro/dollar trend may change. if FED will hike rates this year one more time then we all start to give money away to stay long on euro. history shows that most of the times market cant ignore such developments for too long time. probably it takes quarter or two to understand that interest rate trend and speed is in favour of dollar. therefore I think next year in 1st Q we may see eur/usd top.
dont know where it will be. at the moment seems 1,4500 quite attractive but you never know....
month ago I thought that 1,35 will be the high for this year. now not sure anymore....
still I believe that interest rate developemnts change the picture at latest during the first 3 months of next year.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:05 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
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van Gecko 10:02 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
from a historical prespective, anytime the Dollar had penetrated Dollar Index 85-80 after a Long term down trend offers very good odd for a potential sharp long to medium term trend change..
on each of the past 4 L/T trend reversals, the Dollar climbed at least 1800 basis points over the subsequent L/M/T periods.. the 1995-2001 L/T up trend reversed near index 80..
in 1988 the Dollar reversed the 4000 basis point L/T downtrend after the '85 Plaza accord near index 85.. it is now at index 82 after declining 4000 basis points for the last 4 years..fwiw..


Gen dk 09:57 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 09:55 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
BOJ Fukui: Keeping Regular Contact With US, EU Officials

Gen dk 09:55 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

gold coast martin 09:54 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
london xyz 09:41 GMT November 25, 2004
Its been a year that has been divided into 2....half for bulls half for bears as far as major trends go....good to see you closed your possies as there will be a lot of volatily right up to end of december...last 6 weeks will provide lots of food for short/medium term bulls and bears.....enjoy your break....anyone that lasts more than 12 months in forex is a winner....g/t

London. 09:53 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Handelsblatt article which reported that 5 of the 17 economists on the ECB's "shadow council" want the central bank to lower borrowing costs

London 09:52 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Oct Home Approvals 59k, Down 35% y/y - BBA

Wien GD 09:47 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
KL KL ... i don't agree, but have to leave now. Maybe "see" ü later.

Tallinn viies 09:46 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
london xyz 09:41 GMT - thnks you too, had just same thoughts about the situation. and year has been also extremly good. wondering here who loose all this money :)
anyway tripled my account this year...


I try to get out of this market withing next 2 weeks. and therefore I need only one correction down to 1,3080 :)

london xyz 09:41 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
happy thanksgiving to everyone, may the holiday season commence..

i have sqd up all my posns for the year, this has been one of my best trading years in my career so I will be enjoying the xmas season in full measure.

just wanted to thanks and acknowledge some folks here, especially shanghai bc....one of the most knowledgeable market traders and commentators i havent had the pleasure of meeting!!

and to gold coast martin, enjoyed the jousts here, you have challenged my thinking from time to time, but happy to say I have been on the right end of the major trends.

signing off for the year with best wishes to all traders and contributors here.....good luck in 2005.

TO MR Bahrain 09:40 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
WHAT IS MEANING SHORT PT AND LONG PT IF U DONT MIND

KL KL 09:29 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
GD, not really...I feel more comfortable now shorting than longing at this level. Risk is more on the long side...just imagine the moment you execute a long and then suddenly your broker goes offline, or your broadband goes off...without giving you a chance to even set your stop loss? I can tolerate a loss of 300 pips with each execution and I do not think gbpusd or eur can move another 300 pip from this 1.8850 point...but I think the chances are better for it to move down 500 pips....don't forget it happened once this year....so much stops are built down there now and in this thin markets I trust no one!!!gl gt

AKL S.C. 09:28 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Wait gold touch 558 and then all back.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:26 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
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Tallinn viies 09:23 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
in situation where euryen and eurgbp are not making new highs I would be rather suspicious about the eur strenght.
of course I can see the strenght in current move higher as there has been no set backs at all. without event this situation doesnt change in my view. but still - euryen and eurgbp not making new highs

1,3250 would be maximum I can see today, tommorow is a new day and then 1,3320 should be cap it.

mr khaled pls 09:23 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
what is meaning short pt tkss

Wien GD 09:20 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
KL KL ... you like the thrill

KL KL 09:15 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
euro ain't moving when abpusd and usd jpy all on fire...strange...is this a pick a currency to play ....watch euro soon for some fireworks...thin markets means lots of time to play each currency

KL KL 09:12 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Here I come short gbpusd 1.8861 out 1.8851 +10...still shorting higher cos lots of nervous nellies there including me!!!LOL

Hong Kong Qindex 09:10 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:20 GMT November 23, 2004
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : ............................ The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is located at 1.1637 and the neutral zone is 1.1442 - 1.1637. ..............................................

Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

...........

Curve B : ... 1.1246* ... 1.1344 - 1.1393 // 1.1442* - 1.1491 - 1.1540 - 1.1589 - {1.1637}* - 1.1685 - 1.1736 - 1.185 // 1.1833* ... 1.1931 ... 1.2029* ..............................

Hemel UK Alanfx 09:09 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
I had a calculated target from a few months ago of 1.1438 on USDCHF...

I didnt believe it back then, maybe now i do, anyone else believe this may be a good support?

Alicante RTN 09:07 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Closed usdjpy shorts from 103.22. Open pos now is long eurgbp only (from .6997).

Eurchf finding some legs and usdcad rel weakness tell me that the usd sell-off may be a bit overdone. Would not go long usd, but rather wait for a decent correction.

The market is too one-sided imo.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:07 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
USD Index : 82.19 may show some support!

Ldn 09:07 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
German IFO Business Sent - Nov - 93.8 Vs 94.7 Revised

sofia anmart fx 09:06 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP-0.7000. We sell at the market for 0.6946.

Ldn 09:03 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
German Ifo's Sinn: Index Dropped On Strong Euro, Oil

Ldn 09:01 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
German Nov Ifo Falls To 94.1 From 95.3 In Oct

London JMB Futures 08:57 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Have seen a fair bit of market manipulation today here in the futures. People taking advantage of the thin market... treading carefully!!

Malaga boqueron 08:57 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai bc. Re Plaza. Until we get a Louvre type accord I only see the dollar going one way. James A. Baker III was the architect of that one and he's still around now. He must be advising the present bunch how to play the game. Only they know what they want and where they want the dollar before they enter into an agreement to stabilize it. Until then, keep selling the dollar.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:57 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
My Orders
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/index.htm

NewYork frankie 08:56 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Closed my euro shorts for a loss. Have gone long Cable open TP. It seems the British are the only ones that haven't done any bellyaching regarding the strength of their currency. I'm not fighting this market anymore. If I ask my son which way the market is going after showing him the 8 hour chart, he'd tell me the obvious thing. So why should I make it any more complicted than that!

London 08:54 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Mizuho Corporate Bank says caution now waranted with mkt thin, Euro overbought and many new USD bears jumping on the bandwagon.

BRISBANE PhD 08:50 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY initial stop 103.11 moved to 102.79. AUD/USD initial stop .7834 moved to .7858

Ldn 08:49 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
downside risks for German Ifo survey given declines in ZEW, . business climate index to dip to 94.3 in Nov from Oct's 95.3 level, reflecting the euro's rise and disappointing economic releases.due 0900 GMT

Italy Nov business confidence falls to 90.2 from 91, lowest reading since May

Hong Kong Qindex 08:47 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
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Gen dk 08:46 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
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Gen dk 08:45 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
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Sydney 08:44 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 08:32 you dont see any retracement in the Dollar?

Tallinn viies 08:43 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
got first order done at 1,3194.
will sell more euros at 1,3254.
target first at previous day low at 1,3085/90

trade of the day anmart fx 08:43 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY-135.20. We sell at the market for 134.60.

Tallinn viies 08:40 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
prague viktor 08:38 - china woory-line under 1,0000.
not here at those levels. every 1% dollar gets weaker chinese competitiveness grows marginally.
they can grab more share from global markets

sydney gvm 08:40 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc

Plaza Announcement

mate I remember it well - there was a certain kiwi trader in Wellington working for a French Bank who stayed up all night getting longer and longer the US$ - was fired the next morning and got a job at the Aussie bank I was working for - the guy was quite the genius - could program a HP12C to do anything but he married a view and paid for it - wonder what he's doing now ? Probably a policitician somewhere

Chicago Goofy 08:38 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Short term sell is ready for me...
Watch this heck two weeks after it broke 1.3000

prague viktor 08:38 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc..G.day! at wich level china become worry about the USD level ..more then 1,40 ..1,5TIA

Wien GD 08:33 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Malaga boqueron ... yeap ... as already discussed yesterday: actually forget about the charts ... and therefore reversal predictions ... no offence, jmho.

shanghai bc 08:32 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   

Even in 1985 after Plaza,there were so many traders who were doubting the genuine intentions of US administration to get much weaker Dollar after some slide..They were picking the floors of Dolar all the way down..Nothing really changes as far as human nature and trading patterns goes..Short-term,Dollar is certainly oversold and may bounce a bit,but this is the situation where the keepers of the Dollar are begging the market to sell more Dollars on any bounce,just any bounce..Fwiw.

Auckland 08:31 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Good morning Europe, good morning Soviet Union and good day rest of the world... Good evening Aussie and NZ...
Hello to all of You in this forum and GOOD TRADE...
Are you ready to short???????????????????????
G/L

Tallinn viies 08:29 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
covered my short euryen position here with 35 pips.
want to be ready to sell euros :)
sell order at 1,3194.
target 1,3020
no stop at this stage

Moscow Vasya 08:25 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
That signal should symbolise one-(one and half) week of reverse

Malaga boqueron 08:20 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Vasya 08:12 GMT. Thanks. Not sure if you're talking about a major trend reversal there or just a pause in the present trend. My experience tells me that this strong dollar bear trend will need more than just its own internal dynamics to be turned around.

Moscow Vasya 08:12 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Malaga- bogueron: I cant predict tops and bottoms, this thing defines only safe times for buying an item, and gives most suitable contr-pair. But in this case it with big probavbility says its trend reversal. Laugh on me if i turn wrong.

Helsinki iw 08:10 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD is very interesting, trading against strong support at 1,1760/70. Break here could be difficult, but if seen it would target the 1991 lows at 1.12. Most other dollar pairs are still some way off their medium term support levels. EUR 1,3470/80, JPY 101,20/30 GBP 1,8995/05 , CHF 1,1270/80 and AUD 0,80. Keeping an eye on CAD for clues.

LA Fxnew 08:08 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
dang ... this cable is still up ...

van Gecko 08:08 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
SGP SP 07:23.. Good afternoon, my pleasure..

Moscow Vasya 08:07 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
I use minute mins and maxes, collect last 12.5 hrs, and take 30 minute-scores of them each time for correlation calc. From first to 750 with step of 25 min

wellington am 08:02 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Vasya 07:57 GMT November 25, 2004
Interesting system Vasya - do you use daily data or closer intervals? And do you bias your correlations towards the present, or take a longer term average?

Tell me to shutup if it's proprietory.

I read of a guy in Santiago that does tick level real time correlations, tight money management, and automated trading - with apparent success.

Moscow Vasya 08:02 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
I consider only 5 currencies as most traded, the volumes of cad, aud, nz, etc are too small, definitely i understand that some power can be accumulated in changing their exchange rates, but i dont think this would often influence the market.

Dallas GEP 08:02 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
BOCA, I very much agree with that, Great point. US traders IMO need to be looking to get out of open possies if possible. ONLY 5 hours left here for most of us.

Malaga boqueron 08:01 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Vasya, how many times have you correctly picked a major top/bottom within 20 pips?

Syd 08:00 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
BOJ could make all the difference , it depend though how much they do

gold coast martin 07:58 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Vasya 07:57 GMT November 25, 2004
Use your system to correlate the eu/usd with aud/usd ..you will be surprised......g/t

Moscow Vasya 07:57 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
I have my own correlation-based indicators: they first calculate relative power of each currency, then correlation between pairs. Then using table of correlation i compute which currency is not correlated to others and try to buy it, and wich is strongly correlated to others and try to sell it, experience shows it slightly works. When chf is strongly correlated to others for long time, as it was tonight, it gives me reasons to suppose trend reverse, because i had such a situations when testing strategy on archive data.

B.A. BOCA 07:54 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Vasya // looking to play top/bottom with a 20 pip stop requires NASA precision entries....i.e. very hard to do!

London. 07:51 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Trader says EUR/USD was bought at 1.3192 earlier while a large French bank and US investment house sat on the offer.

adfas sdfsd 07:46 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
fdsaf

Wien GD 07:45 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Vasya: reasons or guts?

London 07:44 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
German Ifo survey at 0900 GMT. forecast to dip to 95.0 from 95.3

Moscow Vasya 07:42 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
IMO taday is the turning point of all trend. Bought usd/chf @1,1465 sl 1,1445 tp 1,1585. Maybe not right now, but in 3-4 hrs it must happen

Hong Kong Qindex 07:42 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
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Wien GD 07:39 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP ... playing with fire ... (;) but also my 1.8788 doesn't look good yet. But consider to buy another eurusd now

bandung mbonky 07:26 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
fxnew, you may short gbpusd right now at its resist 1.8834 stop at 1.8850 target 1.8760

Dallas GEP 07:25 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Well gbp shorts gave me back breakeven I will take it!!! LOL

SGP SP 07:23 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Good afternoon gecko,

It is really nice to see your regular posts....may I request for your e-mail addy thru Jay? Thanks

gl & gt

tk jf 07:16 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
jv looks like range in euryen - today unlike last few sessions have not seen any $yen buying and thats why bit softer today

van Gecko 07:11 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
re. intervention speculations, imo any m/t player who is not in the know on the latest intentions of the 'Dollar Bear Brigade' should stay well clear of this Dollar Beer party at this late stage unless you are still running possies from up at higher grounds.. its nice to cheer & holler for a year end 1.35/1.40 targets with the herds, but the psychological impact in holding any dollar bags from down here while the Dollar undergo an immenient few precentage correction (or an inconceivable trend reversal) could be devastating on the trading mind..
that said, the near term 'lips seal/hands off' policy from those Men in Black may be a tactic designed to lure many of the Dollar Bear Brigade memebers into a false sense of complacency before the 'buck stops here boom' is lower on the Bear Brigades..

with this week's spike from 1.30, the euro is forming a classic 3 day 'spike & dive' exhaustion pattern at the end of a 10 figure rise from 1.22..
Cheerios..

B.A. BOCA 07:07 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
would love a nice BoJ-inspired dip to buy some pictures of the queen. too expensive for my taste at this time, but like the outlook...

LA Fxnew 07:04 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
hi again all ...
any idea about cable right now?

Hong Kong Qindex 07:00 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
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prague viktor 06:56 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
bandung jaksa..for me 1,68-1,7 it will be okay if it will come in the next 2 years G/T

Syd 06:52 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Hk chris umm wonder what censored is !!

bandung jaksa 06:45 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
bandung mbonky///no buddy, i dont hold censored currencies like usd or rupiah. only hold euros then in 2009 you sell back your euros and buy usd at the rate of $2.10 then u can retire with your kids in the USA.

PUNJAB 06:45 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning from Pakistan
Hope u guys having good trade

Hk chris 06:42 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Easy steps to make BIG money:
1.buy euros sell dollars
2.sleep
3.eat
4.sleep
5.censored
6.sleep
7.sell euros
note: sleep can be substituted with watching TV.
sometimes i wonder why people out there take big risks in business, murder other people steal their money (resolve to crime), work their asses

bandung mbonky 06:42 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
my fellow jaksa, it's hedging what u r saying, trade against USD at the same time you keep your USD in your deposits for your kids. better keep it as euro huh??

bandung jaksa 06:37 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
It is very clear, this is just the begining of a downtrend in the dollar, euro has appreciated by 5000 pips in 4 years will seem nothing when it gains atleast another 3000 pips in the next year.keep buying euros then send ure kids to study in the US of A as this will be the cheapest country in the world.

prague viktor 06:34 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Singapore Alimin..hello mate..this is mr:Green effect he just killed the USD on the last friday by his so nice words about the usd.G/T

Juneau CAR 06:25 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Russia holds the most dollars and they are selling for euro's. And now the US is accusing Russia of fraud in the Ukrain elections.

And lot's of other people feel the same way.

What does a collaps look like on early charts-lol. Stage is set for one. Not likely but what can happen in the middle.

Humans suck at predicting. I do not think this situation is very predictable.

Two intractable wars and 77 million baby boomers coming on line in 3 years! How do our deficits improve??

Singapore Alimin 06:17 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
i personally doubt any intervention will be conducted this year and although i would like to see euro corrects a bit from its overbought condition, it has been like that since 1.28/1.29 level so being overbought is not an immediate guarantee that a significant correction will happen in a snap, in fact euro has been going up in a nice uptrend channel

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:14 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Relative GM All

London. 06:08 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Anyone watching European Squawkbox just now
GeoFF Cutmore and analyst saying watchout be careful not to sell Dollars just now , says it can make a 2-3% correction from massive over sold levels

Singapore Alimin 05:55 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
euro is consolidating in the upper range, another rally towards 1.32 handle is probably developing unless something else happens and knock it back down

Syd 05:53 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
A slowdown in Australian business investment growth in the third quarter suggests the economy is traveling at a restrained pace and the Reserve Bank will be in no hurry to raise interest rates. Many economists shaved their forecasts for quarterly economic growth to between 0.4% and 1.0% for the third quarter in the wake of the weaker-than-expected data.

"If this becomes a reality, then this will be the third quarter in a row (of sub-1.0% growth), which would look like a clear slowdown in growth and would certainly diminish the probability of a near-term rate rise," said BT Financial Group Chief Economist Chris Caton.

bandung mbonky 05:50 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
i have long usdchf at 1.1460 gee.. biggest challange ever, should i keep it for today??

London. 05:45 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Lehman Bros

London. 05:44 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 04:32 GMT November 25, 2004
That report was by Leman Bros. perhaps they know something?
London. 04:22 GMT November 25, 2004

melbourne farmacia 05:25 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Kamensk Andy - Nice work – ( still have a few crusty old longs myself ) A significant break above 1.8845 would be welcomed. But feel bit more consolidation / retrace under this fig in the short term… I will run some new figures on the weekly close & post next week for M/T.. GT

van Gecko 03:23 - cheers

HK [email protected] 05:24 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
SINGAPORE (Reuters) -- The near-term premium on the Chinese yuan in offshore markets surged to its highest in more than a year Thursday as speculation intensified that the currency might be revalued as early as next week.

The one-month yuan premium in non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) was quoted as high as 720 points, pricing in an advance of nearly one percent in the yuan within a month.

One-year NDFs were quoted at 4,500 points, pricing in nearly six percent gains in the yuan.

Traders said NDF volumes had swelled, trading was brisk and even implied volatility on the yuan had risen sharply.

"Some people are saying it could happen after Thanksgiving. Others say next week," said one trader, referring to a decision on a yuan revaluation.

There was conjecture that such a decision will be made at the annual Central Economic Work Conference to be held this month.

For more than two years, markets have speculated that China will liberalize its nine-year-old band for the yuan, amid claims from the United States and other industrialized nations that an undervalued yuan gives Chinese exporters an unfair advantage.

The yuan has traded in a band around 8.28 per dollar since late 1997.

Kamensk Andy 04:56 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne farmacia - Good day.. Closed all 2-month cable longs now @ 1.87 and 1.88.. Thanks to your analysis...May i know your view on short- and mid-term. Thank you in advance.

HK [email protected] 04:54 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Maybe there are some signs the $$$ is suppose to come down and very fast, scaring by the first place the C.B of all kinds.

So they are trying to scare the speculators and the investors in return.
Like in the animals kingdom.

NJ RT 04:50 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas ...any thoughts for gbpusd?

LA Fxnew 04:34 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
for cable shorter ...
is there a signal that it is a good sell at this moment?
Thanks

HK [email protected] 04:32 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   

London. 04:22 GMT November 25, 2004

Syd 04:10 GMT November 25, 2004

If a thief is announcing the day he plans to break into my house, do you think he will have his way???

I just wonder.

Maybe the thief will lose his shirt?

London. 04:22 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Asia central banks may soon intervene to slow pace of currency rises, given economies weakening, outlook highly uncertain
Lehman

Syd 04:10 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Japan's chief government spokesman said Thursday it is up to relevant officials to decide whethe to conduct joint foreign exchange intervention to fix an overly weak dollar.
"If the dollar's sharp weakening is clearly a problem, and that isn't necessarily reflecting the current situation and fundamentals very well, then a response that points this out needs to be considered," Chief Cabinet Secretary HiroyukiHosoda told a news conference. However, "the judgment of experts (on currency policy) must be respected," he added. Hosoda was asked whether Japanese officials were discussing joint intervention with U.S. and European counterparts, and whether he thought coordinated intervention is more effective than solo intervention.
Nik

van Gecko 03:23 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
London.. indeed.. those banks should take note that the bond market is not in agreement with the Dollar's dive over the last month.. its either the dog is running far ahead the master, or the dog is just wagging its speculative tail..

melbourne farmacia 23:09 good 1.32 year end projection.. well done..

Ldn pm 12:18.. sorry, i have no idea.. not into day trading noise swings inside a consolidation range or trending channel..
gl..


HK [email protected] 03:18 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
To be honest I must add an alternative view to the one at

HK [email protected] 03:08 GMT November 25

If looking on a 30Min. chart it can be seen that the high this morning is the second attempt and failure to enter the lower part of a Yen bullish flag of which the target is about 101.

Likely at 101 an intervention can be expected.

Wien GD 03:16 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
@all the funny gbpusd shorters ... gl, gt ... off to (austrian) bed now. btw: my gbpusd long order is placed at 1.8788

Minnesota U-Genius 03:09 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Well, took that short gbp/usd @ 1.8823, GT all

Dallas GEP 03:08 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
OK in now @ 1.8820 off order

HK [email protected] 03:08 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Yen looks flat, but seems on the way to 103.21 Fibo. target and small top_coincide on 11/24/04

Dallas GEP 03:05 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Sorry 1.8780

Dallas GEP 03:02 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Target initial on gbp short is 1.7880. I am still not in...hasn't hit 1.8820 yet

Minnesota U-Genius 02:58 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Was thinking about doing that (shorting GBP/USD) but market is too thin now, i'll probably wait and see,
What's your target Dallas GEP and when do you expect to take profit?
TIA,

Philadelphia CABA 02:55 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Took short gbpusd @1.8815

Syd 02:53 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Japan Govt Hosoda: Joint FX Intervention Up To Officials
Will Act Firmly Against Excessive FX Moves

Jakarta Atraidus 02:51 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Next support for [EUR/USD]: 3106 (immediate), 3062 (start long), and 2983 (stops below).
Regards.

Dallas GEP 02:50 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Check that...will take GBP short @ 1.8820

nyc sa 02:40 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Anyone followed UK news today ? Is Tony Blair really in trouble ? it seems some members of parliament want to impeach him for dragging the UK in the Irak war .. that was probably the signal that boosted the pound ..any comments ?

Syd 02:32 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] would imagine some thinking seriously of banking their hefty profits before the data next week and end of year book closing to get some juicy rewards.

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 02:31 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
ANY ONE SEE GBP = 2.000 BY YEAR END

NJ RT 02:28 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
what would be the best to trade for the rest of the week? USD is out of the question, yes?

Dallas GEP 02:27 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Order to take gbp short @ 1.8825 with 45 stop is waiting

HK [email protected] 02:25 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
So today there are rumors of Thanksgiving holiday intervention.
So let us see if the weak hands will exit the market.

Maybe it will be time to buy currencies against fear of other weakhands exiting.

Minnesota U-Genius 02:22 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Very interesting how Eur/Jpy holds @ 135.45 , what is it i wonder? tia

Syd 02:19 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
should read (especially with US out on holiday ,easier to benefit from .)

Syd 02:17 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
HK 01:58 Thats quite possible especially through the BOJ they normally do it around 9a.m on London open and Japan close. looking at the Yen here it could take a trip around 1.02 think they would be concerned just there and get a bit of ECB assistance especially with US easier to benefit from .

Brisbane PhD 02:14 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Short Usd/Jpy102.83. Initial stop 103.11.
Remaining long Aud/Usd. Initial stop.7834 remains in place.

London 02:08 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko this is what my feelings are , we get constant banks across the newswires coming up with a new reason to flog the USD lets hope they ring the bell loud enough when they start taking profit

NJ RT 02:07 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
for the experts ....how do you think eurusd will spike tonight 2:00-4:00AM ? thank you

SanFrancisco TG 02:06 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
mmm, bids having trouble sticking so scratch that idea (eurchf bid) for the moment.

SanFrancisco TG 02:02 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Eurchf may yield a few pips above 1.6 but its iffy with eur/yen remaining under pressure as well as eur/gbp at the moment anyway.

van Gecko 02:00 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
London. 22:33.. its rare for the Gold market to move $25/30 in any 4 week period without making at least a $10 retracement.. it had moved up $33 since the start of the month to the present $450 psychological level..
while euro had spiked up since monday, Gold's momentum had stalled for the last 3 days.. right now, i would image those goldbugs who had brought above $435 are looking over each others shoulder with half cocked eyes.. a 1/2 session close below $445 could trigger a corrective liquidation to lock in some recent profits before they are h'issed into the wind..
cheerios..


HK 01:58 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Anyone hearing rumor of ECB coming into the market while US are on holiday

SanFrancisco TG 01:57 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Coming up to the next hour a couple of trades I would feel comfortable with are shifts to bid in Eur/__ pairs (not including eur/usd. Currently Eur/chf .. /gbp .. /jpy have been offered but perhaps that changes coming up later.

Syd 01:47 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
A senior South Korean intelligence official said North Korean officials overseas are no longer wearing badges portraying the communist country's leader Kim Jong-il
JoongAng Ilbo

dc fxq 01:38 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
London 01:24 GMT



Fed has NOTHING to do with currencies. Its the Treasury.

Ldn 01:36 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
WASHINGTON (AP)--The State Department is alerting U.S. citizens to the potential for civil unrest in Ukraine, following that country's disputed presidential elections. The U.S. Embassy in Kiev has urged Americans living in Ukraine to remain vigilant about the possibility of election-related demonstrations and disturbances following Ukraine's presidential election Sunday. That advice is in effect until Dec. 7. The State Department cited reports that certain intercity travel in Ukraine is now restricted and buses and trains to Kiev have been canceled.

Americans who travel to Ukraine are urged to register with the U.S. Embassy in Kiev or check the State Department's travel Web site.

nyc sa 01:28 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Hey Spotforex , r u expecting a further strengthening of the euro after the Italian earthquake ? I thought u said 2 days ago "euro/yen will never see 1.35 again " while it was in the 1.34's .. have u changed ur mind ?

London 01:24 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Cowboys thats how the Fed are acting at present devaluing their currency in an effort to make China to float theirs they have tried diplomacy and now this , the only ones who will suffer will be the Public with higher interest rates.

Dallas GEP 01:18 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
GD, I expect LIGHT intervention

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:18 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Another day and another new high for the eur/usd pair what can I say. Sometimes I feel like the turkey on thanksgiving with the market. I hope everyone enjoys their holidays and here are a few updated numbers I drew up in my charts with some crayon.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3170-80, 3200-10 and 3230-40.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3130-40, 3095-3105, 3060-70, 3030-40 and 2995-3005.
Retracement numbers are 3110-20, 3060-70, 3020-30, 2980-90 and 2930-40.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3060-70, 2980-90, 2915-25, 2850-60 and 2770-80 for now key retracement number is 3060-70.
Support T/L is around 3090-3100 and 3020-30.
Support is around the 3130-40, 3100-3090, 3050-60, 3000-10, and 2930-40 for now key support is around the 2990-3010 area IMHO. GL GT

Dallas GEP 01:17 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
OK closed AUSSIE shorts @ +18. Still have usd/jpy long and usd/chf long

Gen dk 01:15 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

KL KL 01:14 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
GD, actually I am not comfortable with long term possie when all currency daily charts either going to fall like stone or shoot like rocket...flat now and will take possie on the obvious...these extreme ends seems to have legs ...scarry!!

Spotforex NY 01:13 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
In Japan - when an earthquakes hits..the yen usually strengthens..why?

repatriation of funds.....same could happen in Europe with billions in aid or whatever.....

be nimble!!!

Syd 01:12 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
A softer-than-expected rise in Australian capital expenditure in the third quarter suggests the economy grew slower than previously thought in the period.The bottom line is that the data to date is consistent with a softer-than-expected result for third quarter gross domestic product, possibly the third soft result in a row," said Scott Haslem, chief economist at censored.


nyc sa 01:04 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
mild earthquake hits northern Italy near Verona ,strength 5,3 . This is a warning folks ,no euro buying for a while .

Wien GD 01:00 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP: I'm very surprised about your targets! you expect intervention or what else?
I don't "see" that targets and i don't see usd buyers. Maybe, MAYBE aud ~7840 and yen ~103.20.
My wild guess: 20-40 pips more of usd losses ... f.e. usdyen around 102.50 ... imho the usd bear is still out.

Wien GD 00:51 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
KL ... again: well done ... cheers!
The asian session looks like a turn around?!? I closed some of my short positions against usd earlier and consider (after a little more of watching the market) to long them again.

Sydney Ge11Ja 00:47 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Kuroda comments

Further Euro appreciation not appropriate
Hopes fx markets to stabilise soon
Dlr effective rate not overvalued

Interesting he mentioned the Euro?

KL KL 00:42 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
out long usdchf 1.1456 66 +10... short gbpusd 1.8825 +25 at 1.88.....cannot stand the pain and my trading style - pips in hands better than 2000 pips in air! happy with 35 better than -1! even though charts turning in my favour.

Ltn th 00:38 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
TG. Judging by past history. now seems the worst time of year from MOF viewpoint for major intervention. The effect on individual currencies depends on terms of trade at that time. They are more likely to prefer smaller holding actions and to let things drift till feburary, having been able to keep a buffer from last july and september. There seems some grounds to think that they may have been warned off ideas of serious intervention at the G20 meetings.

Dallas GEP 00:37 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Target on usd/chf longs is 1,1520, on usd/jpy longs it is 103.60 and on AUSSIE shorts .7820. Not sure all targets will print before Asian close but IMO usd/jpy is most likely to print

SanFrancisco TG 00:36 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Thanks jv. Exactly why my attention is beginning to veer to currencies that run smallest risk of being hit by boj, and if I'm otherwise entering anything that could be effected I'm only entering long $ when I'm very confident I won't be running into the selling tide. Boj confounds the markets every year at some point last 3 years.

Dallas GEP 00:34 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
BOJ most likely would NOT intervene in eur/jpy because that would upset the EU guys that claim to want to keep a lid on this euro so USD/JPY is the more likely pair. AUD/JPY also would not be great for them because AUSSIE is already overbought.

Syd 00:33 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
More political uncertainty in North Korea talk China has moved thousands of troops to border with North Beijing denies it ,reports North leader Kim Jong Il's portraits have been removed from public places, and talk even of military moves against him

Syd 00:31 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   

Australian 3Q New Capex +1.3% Vs +3.0% Consensus
not a good number.

prague jv 00:31 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 00:21 GMT November 25, 2004
that is the same thing . eur/usd , eur/jpy and usd/jpy has precise relations in .no metter which pair is leading the move or the next one

London 00:26 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
Talk that pre U.S. non-farm payrolls Dec. 3 traders will start to look at data as a chance for a short-term correction packed week of data next week so any further sell off could be delayed.

prague jv 00:24 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
the best chance for BOJ and other interventions thinkers wud be let the usd go into exhaustiv movement and then only silentli feed and hold retracement or pullback , rather then fighted trend in this stage . IMO

dc fxq 00:21 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
prague jv 00:13 GMT

just one pother point in your otherwise excellent comment: IF the MoF also intervened in the EURJPY which they hjave been kown to do or the market perceived the move as benefical to ALL JPY crosses then EURUSD might not react since it has a history of responding to strength in EURJPY.

prague jv 00:13 GMT November 25, 2004 Reply   
TG , if intervention happen on usd/jpy , it will affect eur/jpy deppending on what will do eur/usd . exapmle eur/usd comming down on usd/jpy buying means it is usd positive move and eur/jpy will moust likeli stay flat .
If usd/jpy going up on intervention and eur/jpy as well , we will have jpy negative movement and eur/usd likeli stay flat.

Looking at spec . accounst pailing up long possitions on usd/jpy , intervention wud only be free money from BOJ for christmas spec. kids . While Boj holding hot potatoe , not likeli in my op.

 




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