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Forex Forum Archive for 11/28/2004

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Ldn 23:37 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Japan MOF Tanigaki gives USD bears/JPY bulls 2 successive warnings in morning, saying Japan to take "stern" steps if FX rates move sharply; also says he's watching markets very carefully reuters

Tokyo IM 23:27 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Some news from US:
Worries about the sustainability of the US economic recovery were stoked at the weekend after Wal-Mart, the discount retailer that is a bellwether for the country's retail sector, said sales grew by only 0.7 per cent in the year to November.

Ldn 23:09 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Ex-Japan MOF Mizoguchi agrees with Japan officials warning vs falling USD, saying weakness doesn't reflect fundamentals as U.S. economy relatively strong vs Japan

wellington 22:57 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
is the IMM data delayed again due to holiday

NJ RT 22:55 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Good morning to all ... experts folks .... after all the news from China, how do you think the $ will react. Does eurusd will reach 1.3350?

Syd 22:54 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Japan Tanigaki: To Take Proper Steps In FX Mkt As Needed

London. 22:54 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 22:38 many thanks

shanghai bc 22:54 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   

NT 17:04 -- Good morning..Gold traders obviously make more than forex traders these days..It has already entered an overbought region medium-term..It may overshoot a bit more ,3-4%,before a multi-months correction sets in,which means the same thing for Dollar..Better watch out what Shanghai gangs do on commodity and gold front..Good trades.

Tokyo IM 22:51 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Goodmorning all.

shanghai bc 22:38 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   

LONDON 21:43 -- Good morning..There is an agreement to help each other on forex front when needed between two countries..The actual joint interventions were in 1998 and 2000 when yen was at 1.40 and 100 levels..Both were successful ones..Fwiw.

Syd 22:24 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   

VIENTIANE, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao signalled the country was in no rush to reform the yuan, and questioned why more hadn't been done to stop the dollar's slide, the strongest words yet of concern by Beijing about the weakening U.S. currency

Syd 22:02 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
AUD may suffer this week as todays 3Q current account deficit said to be a whooper ,keeping cumulative four quarter deficit close to 6% of GDP - wider than U.S. deficit, with 3Q GDP dropping to annual 3.0% growth rate , the bond market may well rally further with talk that the RBA may possibly cut rates more analyst are talking about now

London 21:48 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
ECB to make rate decision amid stagflation fears
The European Central Bank will announce its decision on interest rates on Thursday amid growing fears that the eurozone economy is heading towards stagflation, the combination of weakening growth and rising inflation

London. 21:43 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai BC what is the possibility of the BOC intervening with BOJ etc. ?

London 21:42 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
China's Wen voices concern over dollar slideVIENTIANE, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on Sunday questioned why no steps had been taken to stop the slide of the dollar, the strongest signal yet that China is concerned with the weakening U.S. currency.
"Today, we actually have to ask a question. The U.S. dollar is depreciating, with no attempts to manage it. What is the reason for this?

Syd 21:32 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Australia's current account deficit likely widened in the third quarter, pressuring economic growth.The median forecast is for a third quarter current account deficit of A$12.50 billion after an A$11.97 billion deficit in the second quarter.
data at 0030 GMT Monday

Syd 21:28 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Australian house prices likely suffered largest ever recorded quarterly fall in 3Q, while approvals for new residential building remained weak in October, data this week will likely show. weighted-average house price across Australia's 8 capital cities expected to show 2.0% fall in 3Q from 2Q,prices through the course of 2004 have fallen somewhere between 5% and 8%

TD Securities

new jersey z 21:10 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
thoughts on my thesis: strong retail sales in us for start of christmas season -> larger current acct deficit (big sellers dvd players etc are foreign made) -> weakening dollar any comments?

Sydney 21:10 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Data today expected to show Australian company profits remained buoyant in 3Q, while build-up in inventories also likely to contribute to 3Q GDP growth. business inventories expected +1.0% in 3Q, with 2.0% rise in company profits. "The profit environment is very strong at the moment due to a combination of firm demand, resilient consumers, continued low and stable interest rates and labor costs, so it's a pretty good environment out there for businesses," says Su-Lin Ong, economist at RBC Capital Markets.Rts.

Alicante RTN 21:07 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Yes. Large (but noe FX signifcant) earthquake measuring 7.1 on Richters Scale is being reported.

new jersey z 21:03 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
anyone have a report of a big earthquate in Japan?

Syd 21:03 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja Mann financial in sydey coming the pratt

Sydney Ge11Ja 21:01 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
I have 0.7901

Syd 20:58 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Can someone give me the bid price on the Aud thanks

FRANCE LB 20:06 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
to Miami Southbeach
Did you try to contact in CH ?
You can join us and specialy Th. Mossé from BERNARD . I think he is qualified for you

Miami Southbeach 19:55 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
I am looking for a broker who charges a commission and allows trading inside the spread. If you save 1 pip on a 1 million dollar trade, that is $100.00 and I bet it you can save that much on almost every trade. Any Ideas?

Roumeli anka 18:17 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Sofia QIP ... I'm saying that we are on the final stages of this impulsive wave. I do expect some new lows but some charp retracement too. This is my count on usdchf on daily basis

FRANCE LB 17:33 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Did you think the ECB let the USD cut down the european markets ? I think no. May be a short up on USD this week ...

Halifax CB 17:22 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Jusat a thought - perhaps the US is happy to let it's currency fall until it forces China to revalue the yuan. China must be feeling a bit a pressure right now as commodities like oil keep going up in dollar terms, and they keep their currency pegged...

hong kong nt 17:04 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
BC -- do you think 440-480 range may work for gold in coming weeks? many good trades to you...

San Diego DC 16:12 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Miami Southbeach,
ok, thanks

Miami Southbeach 16:02 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
San Deigo I meant that I will short IF the price gets to around 138 for a swing trade. I woud stop loss at 139, and watch. Since the May2003 high of 140.91 there have been nothing but lower highs and higher lows. Hence, the tight trading range. Fundamentaly, all of Asia is nothing but up for the rest of this decade. When (not If) China revalues it's currency, it will raise al of asia.

San Diego DC 15:48 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Miami Southbeach,
Is the price you have for your short @ 138 a typo, the price I have is 136.24. Thsi chart is 'long' to me but I would wait for Sunday's market movement for a setup to go long.

prague viktor 15:45 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
VIENTIANE, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on Sunday questioned why no steps had been taken to stop the slide of the dollar, the strongest signal yet that China is concerned with the weakening U.S. currency................
IMO..this is the first strong signle to long the usd.when china started the talk ..thats meaning a lot in the FX world ...and maybe we will see a new range 1,27-1,34 for a few weeks to come G/T

van Gecko 15:43 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 14:06.. previous Dollar trend reversals are characterized by sharp & sudden moves at market extremes..
the Dollar's 18 month run up from 1988 came to a sudden end in September/89 with a Usd/Chf secondary breakdown gap of 4 figures after closing up at the previous week's high with a very bullish reversal spike up close.. that gap was finally filled in April/2000, over a decade later..
in July/2001, the 1995 Dollar bull run came to a sudden & un-expected end after an impulsive weekly up spike & closed up near the week's extremes, next week the market open with Usd/Chf gapping down 260 pips.. that gap had never been filled & the Dollar had not looked back since that fateful July 4th weekend..

with last week's Dollar spike & close down at the extremes of another multi-year low set-up, just think what would happen if those Men in Black were to flood the market with Dollar bids 5 minutes before Sydney open its trading week..

but then again with the prevailing fundamentally weak underlying sentiment for the Dollar looking like a well done turkey after last week's big "Thank you vely much for Giving" spike down bar, the above scenario may be inconceivable this time around..
Cheerios for all..

Miami Southbeach 15:16 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Has anyone noticed that the EUR/JPY trading range has tightened? The Bolinger Bands are very tight and a break out would start a big move. My quess is down. I will try a short around 138. Any comments?

Sofia QIP 14:48 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Roumeli anka 14:44 GMT November 27, 2004
I would like to take exception. The current USDCHF downleg lacks serious divergencies to call it a long term 5th so far. Pitchforkwise the move below the middle does not indicate weakness of the decline, on the contrary. Weekly and daily term the Friday low is both price- and indicator-wise lower than the previous ones.
The present/current count is largely determined by its relationship with the previous legs/counts and confirmed by indicators as well as price. So IMHO the Sep 2000- June2001 swings are the starting 1 and 2 and that makes me expect at least one more lower low - which would berelatively weaker - and then the starting ab or 12 of the upmove to confirm the divergence.
Good trades and good luck.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:47 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Kowloon BH 14:17 GMT - This is a good idea that we can get together and move away from our computer screens.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:46 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM 14:15 GMT - This is the first time I provide both 10-day and 44-day cycle reference. This is a premium service. I will generate the weekly cycle analysis after the London session so that I can have a better idea which curve is better to describe the market movement.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:42 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Kowloon BH 14:17 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q-index, Thanks so much for your reply. Will do.
HK nt told me there is a gathering soon. I am longing to meet you in person. Thanks again.

Tokyo IM 14:15 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Qindex// I will sure apply for a free trial but not now. I am working on other things at the moment and would not want to waist two weeks of free trial like that. Thanks for the offer.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:14 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Kowloon BH 14:02 GMT - You can take it to Wing On Jewelry - since 1942 (in Causeway Bay and Wan Chai).

Hong Kong Qindex 14:11 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Spotforex NY 14:10 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
markets moves can be described as 'escalator up' or elevator down'......

but to the end users on the retail end it will feel like 'bungee jumping - without the cord'

Spotforex NY 14:07 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
The FCMs will quietly note

'thank you for the holiday "donation" to our bonus program'.

Spotforex NY 14:06 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 03:19

so this market moves into my second and third phase of intervention, these FCM will change the fill odds into their favor. Again those who are overleveraged will pay a steep, steep price on the first wrong move of 'rate check' rumors and solo intervention.

Friday's chop was only the tip of the iceberg.

Kowloon BH 14:02 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q-index, Pls advise where to sell real gold bar. Heard that your company do gold jewelry. Thanks for your reply in advance. Gd Trade.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:51 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM 12:53 GMT - Thank you! It is worth to take a look on this overlapping technique. The first 2 weeks are free anyway.l

San Diego DC 13:26 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR is poised to make new highs this week IMHO based on my analysis of the chart. The next likely target is in the 1.3370-13380 area. Until the daily chart close gives sell signal , EUR is still long despite the feeling of excessive overboughtness among many traders. Just my 2 cents.

Tokyo IM 12:53 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 12:48 GMT November 28, 2004 // Whom are you talking about? Qindex is not spammer dude.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:50 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:26 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:50 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:36 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:16 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:56 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:23 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:19 GMT November 28, 2004
The common factor of my curves A, B and C are marked with {xxxxx}. It is the key quantized level in my system and is considered as the most important pivot point. I will run some 10-Day cycle analyses later today or early next week. The relative position of the key quantized level in each time frame or cycle would give me a better picture of the projected market movement. Basically I am using different time frame to overlap each other.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:21 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
GBP/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

van Gecko 03:19 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
an immenient sign of things to come in this wild & wonderful world of FX.. greed & fear exemplified..

re 20:42 GMT November 26, 2004..
"What a session! Well, this was one day's trading that got away from me. There I was riding the eur/usd wave - buying, then selling, buying the selling. Within an 30 minutes I was up 500 pips, and loaded up with a nice sized possy for that major spike down from 3320.

All I had to do was sit tight and watch the pips pour in, but no, greedy f%^$%# idiot that I am adds to my positions, the orders stalled on the FXXCM terminal and didn't get filled until the bottom, the thing bounced back, and bang, I'm in the red.

anatomy of a Euro break down gap at a multi year high which may never be filled again;
when that immenient "the buck stops here" boom is lowered and euro gaps down 1 big figure in a blink of the eye, you can bet that all the working buy on dips & stop orders will be filled at the extreme low of the 1st gap if one is lucky.. (remember that NFP Friday in September?)
and when some big boys begin to panic & start the 1st rush to the exit doors with their multi yard stop orders with no takers, euro will gap down another figure..
as pandemonium sets in with more & more multi yard stop orders starts to pour in, the market could see euro down 5 big figures before the dust settle..
how does one spell 'greed & fear' again?

HK [email protected] 01:47 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
boston cr 00:44 GMT November 28, 2004

Even the earth tips its axis twice a year
The tilt of the Earth does not vary as Earth is orbiting the Sun.
If that happens, I will begin to worry of my trade, much more then central bank interventions.
I hope you ment tilting to the sun and tilting away from the sun according to the yearly season.

HK [email protected] 01:34 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
Roumeli anka 14:44 GMT November 27, 2004

It is all about a dispute to what extent wave 5 may go.

That is the weakness of the Elliot wave thery.

Wave 5 may extend from 0.618 0f wave_1 up to 1.618 of the net length of wave 1 and 3.

It seems much harder therefor to find the Ret. points.

Shakeups are possible at any point of time like at present when funds are on the way to book yearend profits.

But it is all known to the market.

Elliot wave theory is a kind of a useful Math. equation, but one which has few solutions.

boston cr 00:44 GMT November 28, 2004 Reply   
The ratio of longs to shorts in the EURUSD is –2.13, which is within the extreme +/- 3 level favoring shorts by over twice as many as longs. Position shifting was marginal on a week over week basis but the intraweek contained a large swing. A +13% increase in shorts combined with a -15% drop in longs, added up to shorts being favored by over double. Open interest too was marginally changed – adding just 2.4%. With the pair making fresh all time highs, this suggests that shorts were squeezed and some flipped.

Even the earth tips its axis twice a year


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