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Forex Forum Archive for 11/29/2004

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tk jf 23:55 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
i think the aud is exactly what i was talking abt with the eur yest the numbers just dont back up the movement and with aust being alot smaller the problem was multiplied so it has shown up there first

Dallas GEP 23:55 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Shorted eur/usd @ 1.3264

London 23:54 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
WASHINGTON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - A U.S. Treasury official on Monday declined to respond to a Washington Post report saying the White House was looking to replace Treasury Secretary John Snow that has fueled talk he will soon depart

The Post quoted an unnamed senior administration official as saying Snow "can stay as long as he wants, provided it is not very long. If somebody says something like that and it's from a high-level source and it's not denied, what other choice do you have except to assume that it's true?" he said.

tk jf 23:51 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
thks jv - it seems clear yen wont go below 102 nor aud above 79 but jury is out on eur n chf

Ldn 23:50 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Traders covered short USD positions today, ahead of an avalanche of economic data. Position traders who successfully bet on the greenback's recent fall have cleaned up and may be wary of tomorrow's GDP figures. On Friday, a report that is notorious for causing huge swings in the currency market, the Non-Farm payrolls report, will be released. Many traders reduce or exit their positions before major economic announcements, thereby reducing 'event risk.'
LINK

San Diego DC 23:47 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD
My 2 cents on the direction for EUR on daily basis (not intraday) is still long, and most probable scenario of a change in direction based on time cycles is due Dec 6-7.

Ldn 23:44 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Mtl JP 23:20 but when it comes down to it all the Asian banks can pack a mighty punch to the FX markets and many small specs would get hurt trying to take them on

prague jv 23:43 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Thank you London
JF , sideways is my feeling , market dual . The only movment for now probabli will come from commodity ccy and should by usd positive , but even that it seems to be limited . Rael money selling usd , spec account long usd/cad might slow the movment . IMO

tk jf 23:37 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
seems the question of today is do we see one more rally in eurusd before correction sets in or do we go sideways and frustrate both sides

London. 23:27 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
prague jv heard most of the funds from those sales will be put into their Northern UK operation not repatriated so dont think there is any currency implication in the sale.

Dallas GEP 23:23 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
yep CABA think I will cover there

bucharest mi 23:21 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
will eur/usd go up to 33xx?i need an advice.

Mtl JP 23:20 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 22:41 / in the end, market does not give a ratza.ss what some CBs want: crisis.. ahh a good ol' down to the basement, steel melting fire, the natural rejuvenator method of clearing old, tired growth. Not to be dismissed.

prague jv 23:17 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Shares in the National Australia Bank climbed higher on Monday, on news that an Irish Financial Services group was considering a bid for NABís southern Irish operations. Speculation has placed the putative bid at around 600 million pounds. The news helped lift shares 0.8% higher to $28.13.

Philadelphia CABA 23:17 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 23:06 GMT November 29, 2004

Thanks GEP, I didn't short more at 1.5175 area how I've thought, so I'm in position like you....will you cover it around 1.5120 if seen?

London. 23:10 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Dollar Halts Slide on Speculation Currency's Decline May Have Gone Too Far
LINKThe majority of traders predicting the dollar will extend its drop may suggest the opposite will happen, said Jim O'Neill, head of global economic research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London. The euro is ``beginning to feel overbought,'' and probably won't end the week stronger than $1.33, he said.

Dallas GEP 23:06 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
CABA......well as you know I am short from much much earlier @ 1.5153....BUT I think we see 1.5120 in late Asia Early London..there is some resitance now at 1.5165

Philadelphia CABA 23:03 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
GEP, your view on eurchf, please??

Sydney 23:01 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Macquarie Bank strategy Daily currency report today says Caution growing over Australia's economic outlook with stops now building on downside on Aud

Dallas GEP 22:58 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Closed euro LONG @ +3....it looks SHORT to me NOW>

hk 22:46 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
SARS Outbreak May Hit Asia This Winter, WHO Says
Asia, including Hong Kong and China, which were among the worst-hit areas during last year's outbreak, is better prepared to tackle infectious diseases like SARS in a ``possible'' outbreak in the region in the coming months, the statement said

Dublin Flip 22:45 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
The front page of the SMH today is more likely to be the catalyst for the soft showing of the Aussie o/night.

One last chance for Howard to join East Asian super Trade bloc

The Howard's deference to the US alliance carries costs not just benefits it seems.

Ldn 22:41 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Mtl JP 22:27 Asian CBs probably looking at exports and economy survival dont want another Asian Crisis.

Syd 22:39 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD slide continues on current account blowout and expectation 3Q GDP data tomorrow will be soft. Last week's bond market rally has also begun to price in a rate cut, further eroding support for AUD short-term support today at 0.7815, but if that gives way next support is at medium-term uptrend line of 0.7745. Westpac currency strategist Robert Rennie

Mtl JP 22:27 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Ldn, so... the CB schemers are planning to shove it to us, eh ? usd has dropped 30% and the 5.5% US current account deficit of GDP and budget deficit of 4.9% of GDP are static. Only Q I suspect is who is going to be the sacrificial buyer of the US paper fiats and in which (combo of) pair(s) it ll hit.

Sydney 22:26 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Large speculators added 15,631 contracts, or 1.56 million ounces, to their net long exposure to the Comex gold futures market in the week to November 23, increasing their net long position to 138,632 contracts, or 13.86 million ounces, Commodity Futures Trading Commission The Commitment of Traders report indicated that large speculators were long 202,921 contracts and short 64,289 contracts as of November 23, compared with 196,371 contracts long at 73,370 contracts short as of the preceding reporting period.
The net long total is just shy of the 144,253-contract cycle peak of net length amassed by the funds in April 2004, and the buying seen coincides with gold prices scaling 16-year highs in excess of $450 per ounce. Dealers argued that while the flow of buying is likely to be sustained as long as prices continue to press higher, the fact that net fund length is nearing an all-time high leaves the market vulnerable to a bout of long liquidation at some point. "We're basically talking about one of the largest net positions that funds have held on record, so it's possible the market will struggle to attract fresh buying going forward," argued Tim Evans, commodities analyst at IFR Pegasus. "I'd say there's a high degree of vulnerability up here of a round of liquidation," he argued.
He added that after the speculative net position peaked in early April at above 140,000 contracts, prices retreated substantially in the following weeks from around $430 an ounce to the $390-395 region by the end of that month.
"If we look at the numbers alone, we can see that after the net position got this big last time prices fell by quite a bit afterwards. We can't predict that will happen again, but you can expect the market to struggle finding new buyers," he added. Fund players also upped their exposure to the silver market during the same period, and increased their net length by 8,311 lots to a historically high 65,758 lots, or 328.7 million ounces. Large speculators were long 69,820 contracts and short 4,062 contracts as of Nov. 23, versus 64,521 contracts long and 7,074 contracts short as of the preceding report. Again, the accumulation of a huge net long position renders the market vulnerable to fund liquidation at some point, market watchers agree. Silver is deemed to be more susceptible to a sell off than gold as prices actually retreated rather than gained during the buying spree. Between Nov. 16 and Nov. 23, March silver futures slipped from a close of $7.641 to a close of $7.609 per ounce. "It's not a good sign that 8,000 or so lots of buying actually weakens prices, so I'd argue this market is struggling to push higher," he said. following net-long extreme in fund exposure in March 2004, silver prices tumbled quite sharply and the recent climb to a historically high level "could set the stage for a similar price fall."
reuters news.

Ldn 22:01 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Hinting of some sort of concerted effort to stem the bleeding in the U.S. dollar, a South Korean official said Monday a weekend meeting with their Chinese and Japanese counterparts over recent currency movements has led to an "understanding.

London. 21:58 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   

The huge deficit will cause the aud grief going forward especially with the large amount of spec traders holding long positions.


These are the points to watch
The slide in the US dollar was triggered by concerns about the size of America's current account deficit - about 5.7 per cent of GDP - but it is smaller as a proportion of the economy than Australia's.
Clifford Bennett, a currency analyst, said: "The Australian dollar is set up to have perhaps its fastest fall in history, and that is saying something."
Australia's weak trade performance will subtract 0.8 of a percentage point from economic growth in the quarter, raising fears that official September quarter GDP figures, out tomorrow, will produce a negative result

Dallas GEP 21:57 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
If one were to believe that EUR/USD will long from here than a short on USD/JPY from say 102.90 with stop above today's high could net 40-50 pips

lax-lgb SNP 21:56 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Manchester Daniel 19:41 GMT November 29, 2004
sorry buddy but cant join ya right now
FWiW am long on Ä/• since last week and am 'flirting' with
£/• based on its current monthly formation ... no date yet but will ask her out AFTER seeing where she opens & stays next week

Ldn 21:51 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
NEWS: US Treasury: Our Policy Is For A Strong USD

Syd 21:44 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD sagging in early Sydney trade after yesterday's current account blowout, lower 3Q GDP forecasts. Intraday studies appear soft, , with prices likely to challenge uptrend at 0.7745-0.776
Westpac chartist

wellington 21:39 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
A daily close below the Nov 25 low at 0.7855 would mark the 1st daily bar chart reversal signal since the uptrend began on Sep 9th. IFR.

Sydney 21:35 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Company News Japan may intervene soon to prop up dollar-report
NEW YORK, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Japanese monetary authorities may be spurred to intervene to prop up the dollar once the U.S. currency falls below 102 yen, according to a report from New York-based consultants Medley Global Advisors.
A market source who read the report said it cited a conversation last Friday between Japanese officials and business leaders in Japan on the dollar/yen exchange rate.

Quebec Swap 21:27 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Going long EUR/USD at present levels.

Syd 21:26 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Record deficit to hit dollar, growth
Australian Mercury.


By Matt Wade

Australia's economic Achilles heel has been exposed, with a banana republic-eclipsing blowout in the current account deficit potentially threatening to drag the economy into reverse.

The record $13.7 billion current account deficit for the September quarter, revealed yesterday, was equivalent to 6.6 per cent of gross domestic product - a bigger proportion than the deficits in 1986 which the then treasurer, Paul Keating, said threatened to turn Australia into a banana republic. Those comments sparked chaos on financial markets and sent the Australian dollar reeling.

Yesterday's figures also showed Australia's net overseas debt has ballooned by $13 billion to a record $406 billion, equivalent to 50 per cent of GDP - the largest proportion ever.

The current account deficit - the trade deficit plus interest payments to foreigners - was up nearly $2 billion, or 16 per cent from the June quarter. The annual deficit rose to just under $50 billion, also a record.

The dollar lost about half a cent after the deficit figure was published but, at US78.7 cents, it remains close to the seven-year high reached in February. While a global slump in the greenback this month has buoyed the local dollar, some currency specialists believe it is shaping for a big fall.

The slide in the US dollar was triggered by concerns about the size of America's current account deficit - about 5.7 per cent of GDP - but it is smaller as a proportion of the economy than Australia's.

Clifford Bennett, a currency analyst, said: "The Australian dollar is set up to have perhaps its fastest fall in history, and that is saying something."

Export volumes fell 3.2 per cent last quarter as import volumes rose almost 1 per cent, meaning the nation's trade performance will drag on growth for the 13th consecutive quarter.

Australia's weak trade performance will subtract 0.8 of a percentage point from economic growth in the quarter, raising fears that official September quarter GDP figures, out tomorrow, will produce a negative result.

Anthony Thompson, senior economist at HSBC, said the export drag, coupled with a weaker than expected quarterly build-up in the stocks held by firms, could push Australia's official growth measure backwards. "A strict interpretation of the latest data has raised the risk that third-quarter GDP could actually contract."

A University of Sydney economist, Associate Professor Dick Bryan, said the deficit

was "a manifestation of debt-driven consumption". Some economists say the scale of the current account deficit highlights two dangerous economic imbalances: spending has run ahead of the economy's productive capacity, and a decline in Australia's international competitiveness.

The huge deficit came despite the best trade prices for decades and a buoyant world economy - both positive for exporters.

The Treasurer, Peter Costello, said he would prefer a lower deficit and blamed the dollar's rise for the poor figures.

"One of the things that is undoubtedly challenging Australia's exports at the moment is the level of the Australian dollar, which is currently about 10 cents higher than its post-float average over the last 20 years in US dollar terms," Mr Costello said.

The shadow treasurer, Wayne Swan, said the current account deficit highlighted the great challenge to maintain growth. "Australians understand that there is a problem when you are not exporting enough and you are importing as much as this country is doing," he said. "They absolutely understand that we need to have a better export performance and that that has a dramatic impact on their standard of living."

Separate figures yesterday showed company profits grew 3.6 per cent in the September quarter but inventories rose only 0.3 per cent.




Syd 21:24 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
TREASURER Peter Costello warned yesterday that exporters faced a challenging year, blaming the strength of the Australian dollar for an uncomfortably large current account deficit.
LINK

Sydney 21:19 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Australia's retail trade likely remained robust in October amid buoyant consumer sentiment
Data due today at 0030 GMT

FloridA vv 21:12 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Syd 21:04 GMT November 29, 2004
So good luck to us, I was able to catch a short Eur/Usd @ 1.3297. Target is set @ the lower border of a forming channel which is 1.3188. But all depends on a speed of movement (which is not inspiring yet) and tomorrow's data.

Syd 21:04 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
FloridA vv this is my view also , can see a pull back as gecko is saying .

Syd 21:02 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh its probably the overseas investors that are concerned

Philadelphia CABA 21:00 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
GEP, may I ask you on your view for eur/chf? Thanks.

FloridA vv 20:59 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Syd 20:48 GMT November 29, 2004

Syd, Usually that means: "Load your accounts with $ longs."

YVR TTT 20:54 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
An electrical problem ruined one of the company's satellites on Sunday. Intelsat, which acts primarily as a long-distance carrier for telecom companies and runs a private line between the White House and the Kremlin.
hea'vin a "GAS"T"Kinoshitalite

Livingston nh 20:54 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
SYD - stox in US are victims of fixed income (i.e., higher rates) // most folks in equities wouldn't know the exchange rate from a bag of beans

London 20:51 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Daily FX
Will the ECB Save The Euro?


http://biz.yahoo.com/censored/041129/1101754764_17832_1.html

Syd 20:48 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Stocks Mixed on Fears of Falling Dollar

this seems to be the theme across most of the US press .

ny 20:42 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
nzd sitting right on top of a 18 day trendline as well at .7145ish . could be interesting if we break this as well market very long kiwi in a very small market

NJ RT 20:37 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP : what do you think ...should I go long @ 1.3275 with a limit at 1.3310. I took your advice last time and worked out pretty well for me. Thank you

Syd 20:37 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
One thing is for sure the US cant afford to have the Equity market collapse due to the weak dollar before they decide to pull their finger outand do something -surely

Stocks waver amid fears of a falling dollar

wellington 20:15 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Powerful quake injures 17 as Japan waits for the big one
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/041129/1/3owdi.html

Gothenburg 20:15 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Ehh.. What happened to Aussie on GV-charts?

Livingston nh 19:59 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Aussie looks poised on the edge of the ledge - short AUD/USD w/ a stop at .7880 - MACD is crossing over???

Dallas GEP 19:49 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
No Raden I am not. I am thinking we now have a buy on dips again on EURO and on GBP. THX my friend.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 19:46 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
dallas.. I agree. I hope not thinking eur/uisd sell now. too early
please focuse on 1.3328-3335 as the top trget

Dallas GEP 19:43 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Longed eur/usd @ 1.3273

Manchester Daniel 19:41 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
SNP - if you are around, please join me for a chat - not so sure about your £/yen though - cant see why YEN should weaken but perhaps u can enlighten me.

Bruxville Jim 19:37 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain// Did you get a bite into those tasty GBP/JPY longs from 194- ? Nice call!

Ldn 19:37 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
WASHINGTON (AP)--Secretary of State Colin Powell took a stand Monday against any breakup of Ukraine, telling President Leonid Kuchma that it was important to keep the crisis-mired country intact.
In a telephone call to Kuchma, Powell said he was disturbed about reports of a possible splintering of Ukraine amid a volatile election dispute. He told reporters he asserted the U.S. stand on the country's territorial integrity and his hope Ukraine would find a way to resolve its problems.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:15 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Nz and aussie are Buys at 0.7120 and 0.780 area for asian session
Check this
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/Charts.htm

SNP 19:14 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
time to long £/• draws closer as this month ends ;-)

Halifax CB 19:02 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
If gold is any indicator, the USD could be in for another rough ride. It's up around 453.5, after sinking earlier in the day to below the 450 mark.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 18:52 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
102.84 be broken, thats mean will get ending phase at 102.97

Budapest Daniel 18:39 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
im ready to hold my usd/jpy long for another 10 pips :) hope it works

Jakarta r4v3n 18:39 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
question: I just read an article that if China appreciate their currency...... the usd will go down more.
is that true???
fwiw, if china were to revaluate their yuan, the us budget deficit will getting smaller since china still holding trade surplus with us.
I always thought that the us gov't is trying to force their way to the world..tia

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:39 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Hi Guys.. :)

jkt-aye 18:38 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
short gbp here. risking 100 pips for 200 pips. sleeping mode. GL 2 u & ME.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 18:26 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy have done 102.84.
ready?

Ldn 18:24 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Just had this emailed from a friend

S&P's head says Australia's sovereign country's net debt, at close to 50% of gross domestic product, is "very high" and always the big risk for Australia's AAA rating.
While S&P tends not to get "too fazed" by movements in the quarterly data, the long-term trend hasn't been all that great. It is high levels of net debt and getting higher,"
If you look around the world, you don't see many other countries, certainly not many other high-rated countries with that level of net external debt The cost of servicing foreign debt repayments added A$870 million to the current account deficit in the third quarter, highlighting the risks posed by the country's mountain of foreign debt. S&P says external debt is within Australia's tolerance levels for now

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 18:20 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
nice for sell more usd/jpy when touch 102.84 for target 102.38

berlin otto 18:18 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
london aas 18:04 GMT November 29, 2004
Quite right singapore kingpin.

Your analise is wonderfull.
I am rational and I mean the strong dollar policy is on the way - near term - I hope the traders who buy euro on this levels 1,3299 understand what they are doing.

I am waiting that the words of Mr. Snow come into reality soon - I want right now USD currency bulish.

Dallas GEP 18:10 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Well really the safest pair to trade IMO is usd/jpy. Longs from that 102.55/60 area work nicely. Shorts from 103.05/10 also look pretty good

london aas 18:04 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Quite right singapore kingpin.

Let's look at this closely. The usd is falling against every currency mainly because of its current account deficit. It's falling against the aud, which has an even larger ca deficit; go figure. The usd is falling against the eur. Mmmm. that's strange considering already anaemic growth rates in Europe will soon go into recession; who's going to buy into an economy which ain't growing. Then there's Britain which is finally witnessing a cooling off in property and consumer spending, which probably means the BOE will not raise interest rates, which *should* hurt the gbp.

Now this is the reality. But of course markets are not rational; or about as rational as a game of roulette. The prevailing *psychology* is that the usd is going down whatever the circumstances. It takes a very brave man indeed to be a contrarian in the face of this overwhelming sentiment. Of course the punters will have a reality check and buy usd. But is anyone here prepared to risk their shirt and say when? 'cos I'm not.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 18:03 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
friends.. market look so quite..but market is wild snake.LOL

Dallas GEP 17:57 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Well that stop was too tight. HOWEVER, I am having connectivity problems so having to play with narrower stop than normal for the time being.

NewYork frankie 17:51 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Don't want to oppose the trend but sold Euro's here for a 100pip tp within the next 2 days based on a pullback to the 5ema on the weekly chart. Stop located at last week's high 1.3330.

Surabaya Medallion 17:49 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Lol 1.35 or 1.305 first? I would think of it at 1.335.

singapore kingpin 17:40 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Shorted euros at 1.3301 for 1.3150.

Dallas GEP 17:37 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
YEP Re: Euro. Stopped on that eur/usd shorts @ 1.3295 (-12 pips)

Makassar Alimin 17:34 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
watch out, euro is climbing up silently

singapore kingpin 17:33 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 17:26 GMT November 29, 2004
your right, good point there.

Makassar Alimin 17:28 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
singapore kingpin 17:22 GMT November 29, 2004

i am afraid you have to take into account all the factors involved 9 years ago and now too, they are not exactly the same

Dublin Flip 17:26 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
kingpin the ASX is up 19% and commodities are also through the roof yet Aussie is only up 4% YTD.
Sounds like Much ado about nothing.

Tor Pumpkin 17:25 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Sing, % of GDP aside, the absolute amount of the US deficit is far more difficult to finance than Australia's.

singapore kingpin 17:22 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
My point exactly, if the US has a similar rate advantage in the future (which it will as indicated by Mr G clearly), all deficits will be ignored just as it was 9 years ago.

Surabaya Medallion 17:22 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Also looking at EUR/AUD, AUD has dropped indeed from 1.68x to 1.69x

Dublin Flip 17:20 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
What about the difference in the australian and US budget positions-LOL

Surabaya Medallion 17:19 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Yes, but then AUS has 5.25% yield and U.S is only 2%. Not to mention that commodity price is still quite high and absolutely no mad cow. So, the negative thing is only the GDP?

singapore kingpin 17:15 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
quite funny , the australian current account deficit situation is worse then the US, more then 6% of GDP, once again prooves markets are moved by Psychology rather than economic facts.

berlin otto 17:13 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 17:07 GMT November 29, 2004
Q: Ukraine is afraid of a run on the banks. How would that affect forex?!

This question is - for our forex out of credibility.

Ok, what we waiting for?
gbpusd 1,90
or
gbpusd 1,8900

Haifa ac 17:07 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Q: Ukraine is afraid of a run on the banks. How would that affect forex?!

Dallas GEP 16:56 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
OK this is worth a try IMO....shorted EUR/USD @ 1.3283

Dallas GEP 16:32 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
ISA, No I don't neccessarily agree because on a very short term basis EURO could short back down from 1.3285, GBP could as well BUT it is MORE bullish

Global-View 16:26 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Flower City ISA 16:22 GMT November 29, 2004 - we emailed you requesting you to use a recognizable location. You can qualify your location by adding your country if you insist on using Flower City, which by itself is not acceptable. There is a save feature in the posting template so you only have to spell it out one time.

Flower City ISA 16:22 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, perhaps you could help me by giving me your view about euro & GBP movement ?
According to my analysis, the euro & GBP is already back on their track - "Up...Up... and Away". Do you agree with me ?
I think the euro will reach 1.34-1.35 range and the GBP will break 1.91 range (the old time high).

Dallas GEP 16:05 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Very nice M, US session looks to MAYBE be a little more active than Asia and London Prior

Halifax CB 15:56 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Out of curiosity, I wonder if any one here has a feeling for how much of this $ selling isn't speculative, as much as just hedging. In a trending market like this one, as a foreign investor it makes sense to insure the value of US investments against dollar depreciation (throgh options, futures, or simply foreign exchange, which might actually be the cheapest insurance..), which is rather self-reinforcing re. the $...

Dallas Mauricio 15:55 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Well GEP, I'm done for the day @ +46 pips. I will see you all tomorrow as the economic data will begin to make things much more interesting. GL to all & keep your stops!

Flower City ISA 15:51 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
London, what is the next target for euro & GBP ?
According to my analysis, the euro & GBP is already back on their track - "Up...Up... and Away". Do you agree with me ?
I think the euro will reach 1.34-1.35 range and the GBP will break 1.91 range (the old time high).

Dallas GEP 15:39 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
WEll M it did go above the MA but unless it makes a new high it MAY be range bound

Dallas Mauricio 15:35 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Cable just went BOOM!

Livingston nh 15:34 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
ECB has a small window of opportunity to slow the EUR advance - it can cut rates this week or wait for the Fed to hike and then cut - this would be especially effective if the inflation rate in the EU stays above 2.2% // such action might give pause to the hot money folks who are force feeding dollars into the EU

Dallas Mauricio 15:31 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Dallas GEP.

Dallas GEP 15:29 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
1,8920

Dallas Mauricio 15:27 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
At what level for the pound GEP? TIA

Dallas GEP 15:25 GMT November 29, 2004
These also are failure points for both euro and pound so could go either way

Dallas GEP 15:25 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
These also are failure points for both euro and pound so could go either way

Dallas GEP 15:20 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
OK looks to be at this time some dollar SELLING in the works here.

NJ RT 15:19 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
I put a limit order @1.3260 with stop 1.3251 limit 1.3325

Dallas GEP 15:17 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
OK THX

OK SZ 15:17 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Gep, yes I am getting the feed

Halifax CB 15:15 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP - I'm gertting it.

Dallas GEP 15:14 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Excuse the off topic post guys but are you getting the SAXXXXO feed at top of this screen because I am not for some reason.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:12 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Maybe Euro will hit 1.3330 today

London. 14:59 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
John Snow's days as U.S. Treasury Secretary are numbered - he'll probably depart about six months or so after Bush's second term begins ,a senior administration official who says Snow "can stay as long as he wants, provided it is not very long." White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card is a top candidate to replace him
The Washington Post

NJ RT 14:59 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
sorry meant bahrain no ba

NJ RT 14:58 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
slv sam & ba: do you think we saw the lowest eur/usd today?

gold coast martin 14:56 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
HK 14:51 GMT November 29, 2004
First symptoms of a sick economy with the impact felt in the first quarter of 2005...what do you buy/sell in a sick commodity economy?..pick your poison....g/t

River Falls_USA_ PB 14:55 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
HK 14:51 GMT November 29, 2004 ///just one piece of the puzzle-the challenge is to put it all together, eh? gt

HK 14:51 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
picked up this news today: in terms of percentage of GDP, Australia has a bigger current account deficit than America.

So should we sell AUD buy anything other than USD. However, many people forecast a higher AUD/NZD for next year. Difficult to figure out! Or the mkt is just like this: bullish and bearish factors co-exist all the time.

River Falls_USA_ PB 14:43 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
fwiw...2 year notes out-yield equivalent German paper by a lumpy 71 bp at present gt

slv sam 14:43 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
the market seems to want very much to test e/$ 1.34-1.35! and nobody really wants to challange the market sentiment!GT

Makassar Alimin 14:42 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
dollar selling resumes? geez, couldn't even get my first entry around 1.3180/1.3200

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:38 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Coffee is skip if you trade this pair!!
Will do it automatically for You...LOL

NJ RT 14:37 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
I see the $ can't stop climbing .... did anything happen?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:35 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Buying GBP/JPY at 193.85 area for 100 pointer...if any would like a shoot of Tequila in the morning...Please!!

Surabaya Medallion 14:33 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
HK

Is there a good site to check bond prices?

HK 14:24 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
U.S. 30-yr Treasury Bond just down a full point...FWIW

beirut jb 14:18 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
hi traders, Hi GEP

IMHO I think leading indicator is rotating between pair, today I watched market since asia open i may say GBP/$ was the leading ind today

GL GT

Dallas GEP 14:13 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Well after the wild moves we had last week I guess it is no wonder we are fairly tight ranges to begin the week. These particular levels are not particularly good for longs or shorts. I think we have seen thus far a minor attempt by usd bulls but there ceratinly are those just waiting foir the USD bear runs to begin. I somewhat disagree that CAD could be used as leading inducator, I think more so that CHF has that role currently

Moscow Vasya 14:01 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
I still think usd retrace is coming on...

slv sam 13:52 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT /
even us$ is trying its best t fight back..but still no supporters! everything is going against us$ CBs and individuals!! plus cad as a learding ccy...still tells me us$ will register new low very soon..within 48 hours!GT

Surabaya Medallion 13:51 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
It seems EUR/USD will go up to 1.328 since it has failed to go lower than 1.323 today.

NJ RT 13:46 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
slv sam : what's your view of eur/usd ? Thank You.

Livingston nh 13:42 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Stretching for yield? last week the Fed reported that US agency debt held by foreign CBs increased by over 4 bio while treasury debt declined by around 1 bio - agency debt has been a bit unpopular in light of FNMA problems

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:41 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Cad
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/Charts.htm
at the bottom

Hong Kong Qindex 13:36 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

River Falls_USA_ PB 13:29 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
The conflict in the Treasury market is rising steadily with recent bull attempts to push up prices, being met with growing concerns of rotation away from US investments. Since the markets closed last week, it would seem that one of the world's largest bond fund managers has become a little concerned about US Treasuries and has suggested that investors choose German Bunds over US Treasuries. from Hightower gt

slv sam 13:18 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
back to business soon...$ lower!GT

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:14 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
I been working on this for quit some time...
Seems I need a large sample of data...Say for Hourly...Need 2000 hours at least...
Been working with the math so that I can get levels and Direction with 300 data Points...
These levels are Operationg at 6 sigma == 99% (At Normal MKT conditions and about 90% at any condition

Philadelphia CABA 13:10 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
EUR/CHF at 4 weeks trendline @1.5185, will sell failure here if seen.

NJ RT 13:07 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, I can see that .... how good was this model for you in the past?

Makassar Alimin 13:06 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
will try euro long close to 1.3180/1.3200 with tight stop loss and if stop hit, then will see price action....for limited dollar recovery, might try another long later close to 1.3080

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:05 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 13:03 GMT November 29, 2004

Not neccearly..if does then good buy...what comes after is really what counts

NJ RT 13:03 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, according to your charts EUR/USD should drop arround 1.3150 today ?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:01 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Cad Short target 1.17

NJ RT 12:38 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP: Thank you

Dallas Mauricio 12:35 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Market has stalled on cable @ 1.8906.

Dallas GEP 12:33 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
RT Eur/gbp range is basically 6987 to 7030

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:24 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/Charts.htm
some more to go I guess...LOL

NJ RT 12:16 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel thank you for the valuable input.

BRISBANE PhD 12:15 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
SYDNEY Ge11Ja 8:44 I missed your posting. I am out of the Aussie short. If I had to stipulate a short term attainable target I would say .7787. However I dont generally use targets, but trailing stops.

Sydney gvm - Its a time based signal.

Budapest Daniel 12:13 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
it will go up or down for sure

NJ RT 12:11 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
How do you guys see EUR/GBP in the next hours?

Gen dk 11:58 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

sydney gvm 11:48 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
BRISBANE PhD any particular reason for your long EUD?

BRISBANE PhD 11:44 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Bought EUR/USD long 1.3253. Initial stop 1.3223

bandung mbonky 11:30 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
can u help me??
if u are a medium term player (weekly basis) do you see eurusd will retrace to at least 1.3 at jan-feb 2005???
thnks pals

BRISBANE PhD 11:27 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Initial stop on short AUD/USD to market at .7865. Flat.

KL KL 11:25 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd short at from 87 at 80..+7 does not want to go lower and I have no power to push it so take the pips now and reshort higher....New York wake up

JHB CDB 11:21 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Hi SA PAT

Don't you want to sign on you messenger for a minute?

Dallas Mauricio 11:19 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Way to go KL!

KL KL 11:01 GMT November 29, 2004
Out gbpusd long from 1.8853 at 87 +34, SAR and short here...hope to see some action prior to new york time! Using 30 and 15 and 10 mins for trades today


Dallas Mauricio 11:19 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
I was sick & took time off for the Thanksgiving holiday. Thanks for asking.

berlin otto 10:51 GMT November 29, 2004
Dallas Mauricio 10:47 GMT November 29, 2004
Good Day everyone.

Good day to you, I missed you on the chat.
Where have you been ?

SA Pat 11:08 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Have a look @ eur/usd 50ma on 4hr charts.
Quite interesting!!!!

gold coast martin 11:08 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
FWIW.....aud not trading in correlation with euro currently.....7788 is next point of resistance......expecting a breach of that resistance level by end of ny trading.....g/t

KL KL 11:01 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Out gbpusd long from 1.8853 at 87 +34, SAR and short here...hope to see some action prior to new york time! Using 30 and 15 and 10 mins for trades today

berlin otto 10:51 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Mauricio 10:47 GMT November 29, 2004
Good Day everyone.

Good day to you, I missed you on the chat.
Where have you been ?

NJ RT 10:51 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
good morning to all any views on EUR/GBP and GBP/USD this morning?

Ldn 10:51 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
MOSCOW (AP)--Russia has successfully tested a modernized anti-ballistic missile system, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov told President Vladimir Putin Monday, the Interfax news agency reports.

Ldn 10:51 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
MOSCOW (AP)--Russia has successfully tested a modernized anti-ballistic missile system, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov told President Vladimir Putin Monday, the Interfax news agency reports.

Dallas Mauricio 10:47 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Good Day everyone.

berlin otto 10:37 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Good morning

I am on the chat and I am waiting to trade for US working time.
GL and GT.
I mean that the right decision is sell gbpusd at 1,8875
target 1,8840 near term or for working time US.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:36 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


bandung usa 10:34 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
dont worry $ is very oversold, keep buying euros all burgulars thevies criminals stop murdering stealing ppl for money, easy way to make money is right here.

Syd 10:32 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
(AP)Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali Naimi said Monday that there was no merit in replacing dollar-denominated oil with another currency, despite the recent record weakness in the greenback.

Speaking at a conference at Chatham House in London, Naimi said: "The dollar is still the currency for international trade and is used to back up reserves and is easily convertible."

London 10:27 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Should be dollar positive and oil positive

RAMALLAH, West Bank (AP)--A senior Hamas leader indicated Monday that the militant group is halting attacks on Israelis while the Palestinians prepare to choose a new leader, the latest sign of change following the death of Yasser Arafat.
Sheik Hassan Yousef, the group's top leader in the West Bank, said Hamas also would consider a formal truce with Israel. Hamas has carried out dozens of suicide bombings and other attacks, killing hundreds of Israelis during four years of fighting.
Since Arafat's death Nov. 11, there has been a sharp drop in violence. The Palestinians have turned their attention to Jan. 9 presidential elections, while Israel has curtailed its military activity and made a series of gestures meant to ensure that the vote goes smoothly.
"In the current situation, many political and militant groups have halted their attacks. They are waiting and exploring the new era," said Yousef, who was recently released from an Israeli prison after serving a 28-month sentence.
He also said that Hamas would consider a formal cease-fire, if Israel reciprocates. He said Israel must be prepared to release Palestinian prisoners, withdraw from occupied land and stop targeted killings of militants.

week 10:21 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD




Support : 1.3180 ; Resistance : 1.3380




Main Trades :

1# : Short @ 1.3360 / Stop 1.3410 / Exit 1.3280 OR 1.3210 OR 1.3180

2# : Long @ 1.3200 / Stop 1.3150 / Exit 1.3280 OR 1.3350 OR 1.3450




Reversal Trades :

1# : Short @ 1.3135 / Stop 1.3180 / Exit 1.3050

2# : Long @ 1.3425 / Stop 1.3380 / Exit 1.3500




Intraday pivots points [ Minor support / resistance levels ]



Point 1# : 1.3230

Point 2# : 1.3310







GBP/USD







Support : 1.8800 ; Resistance : 1.9080




Main Trades :

1# : Short @ 1.9050 / Stop 1.9100 / Exit 1.8970 OR 1.8890 OR 1.8790

2# : Long @ 1.8820 / Stop 1.8780 / Exit 1.8900 OR 1.9070 OR 1.9170




Reversal Trades :

1# : Short @ 1.8765 / Stop 1.8810 / Exit 1.8680

2# : Long @ 1.9115 / Stop 1.9070 / Exit 1.9200




Intraday pivots points [ Minor support / resistance levels ]



Point 1# : 1.8870

Point 2# : 1.9020










USD/CHF




Support : 1.1300 ; Resistance : 1.1510




Main Trades :

1# : Short @ 1.1490 / Stop 1.1540 / Exit 1.1420 OR 1.1380 OR 1.1280

2# : Long @ 1.1330 / Stop 1.1280 / Exit 1.1400 OR 1.1480 OR 1.1540




Reversal Trades :

1# : Short @ 1.1265 / Stop 1.1310 / Exit 1.1200

2# : Long @ 1.1555 / Stop 1.1510 / Exit 1.1640




Intraday pivots points [ Minor support / resistance levels ]



Point 1# : 1.1350

Point 2# : 1.1460







USD/JPY




Support : 101.50 ; Resistance : 104.00




Main Trades :

1# : Short @ 103.80 / Stop 104.30 / Exit 103.00 OR 102.40 OR 101.60

2# : Long @ 101.70 / Stop 101.20 / Exit 102.40 OR 102.90 OR 103.50




Reversal Trades :

1# : Short @ 101.10 / Stop 101.40 / Exit 100.40

2# : Long @ 104.45 / Stop 104.00 / Exit 105.30




Intraday pivots points [ Minor support / resistance levels ]



Point 1# : 102.20

Point 2# : 103.30










The intraday pivot points may be considered as an opportunity for a hedging entry trades


------------------------------------------------------------

L.A. Igrok 09:53 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Those, who were lucky or smart enough to short the buck some time ago and to sit on it till now; and on whose behalf we currently have a huge surplus in USD shorts over USD longs, in fact have little more at the moment than a just a record on the PC's hard drive. It's not a real profit yet. I guess they might get in trouble soon trying to cash in their paper profits. I doubt there will be other end available and stupid enough to sell about 20-30 yards of USD at current levels or below.

KL KL 09:37 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Long gbpusd 1.8853 ...lets see now

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:35 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY Longing at 193.85 for 100 points

London 09:35 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
UK Mortgage Approvals - Oct - 83K Lowest Since Jan 2000

L.A. Igrok 09:35 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
slv sam/// Not necessarily. It might get confirmed and then we will stick around current levels for much longer then we would want to.

slv sam 09:30 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
L.A. Igrok 09:18 GMT /
sounds like price action is predetermined?

Hong Kong Qindex 09:28 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Syd 09:21 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
L.A. Igrok thanks for that

Sydney 09:19 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Hinting of some sort of concerted effort to stem the bleeding in the U.S. dollar, a South Korean official said Monday a weekend meeting with their Chinese and Japanese counterparts over recent currency movements has led to an "understanding."Chin Dong-Soo, Deputy Finance and Economy Minister on international affairs, didn't elaborate, but reiterated the government's stance (reuters.)

L.A. Igrok 09:18 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
With just 1.5 days left till the end of the month it is going to be fun to watch whether or not the crossover on the monthly MACD on the three majors will sustain. Otherwise we're going to witness today and tomorrow a sharp USD recovery accross the board to avoid the confirmation. The month has to be closed well below 1.30 on the EUR/USD to avoid adding another bearish signal to the pile of numerous USD negatives.
Under circumstance I would say there is good a chance for a short squeeze.

slv sam 09:14 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
no matter how strong this $ correction will take us....a new low will be registered soon..imho..so buy euro every 30-50 pips down for sure profits ..aimho!GT

Rivonia PipPirate 09:10 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Y/d the charts did whisper to me:
E/G S& R:
..6973...6996<>7024...7043..
$/Y S & R:
...102.33...10228..10310...10336..

honolulu Byron 09:07 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Where does EURUSD trying to go?
What's gonna happen after triangle consolidation?

my chart: http://fxtradercenter.com/ftopict-72.html

Ldn 09:06 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
TOKYO, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Japan's vice finance minister on Monday repeated his warning against the yen's recent rise, saying authorities would act on rapid moves in foreign exchange rates.
"The yen's recent rise has been rapid, and it does not necessarily reflect economic fundamentals," Koichi Hosokawa told a news conference, repeating his previous remarks. "We will take bold action against rapid moves."



NJ RT 09:04 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
any thoughts about EUR/GBP? Thank you.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:51 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Sydney Ge11Ja 08:44 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
BRISBANE PhD 08:17 GMT November 29, 2004

Do you have a target for this trade please?

NJ RT 08:43 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
for the experts .... where do you see eurgpb today ?

NJ RT 08:40 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
folks ... any numbers for usdjpy ?

Bandung Margahayu Asti 08:25 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Got daily support for cable 1.8765..GL/GT...!

Hong Kong Qindex 08:20 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

BRISBANE PhD 08:17 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
sold AUD/USD short .7865. Initial stop .7884

prague jv 07:57 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 07:43 GMT November 29, 2004
folks ... any thoughts for usdjpy

>UP<

NJ RT 07:43 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
folks ... any thoughts for usdjpy

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 07:34 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 07:29 GMT November 29, 2004
yo.. I took my vacation.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:33 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

LA fxnew 07:29 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
yo raden ...
long time no see ... ^_^

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 07:18 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd I think maximal low is at 1.3223 (bid). welcome to 1.3328 as the top from there.

prague jv 07:15 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
wellington am 06:57 GMT November 29, 2004

Either way, if the SPI does get to 4,000 I'll be taking a wad of 6 month PUTs around 3750.

In this type ( trending ) market , PUT option strategi is good if you have some good ammount to protect in your portfolio , but speculativ movment on decline is very risky , aspecialy from psycho level 4000 IMHO
I wish you good luck in that strategie .

London. 07:10 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
The ECB is scheduled to meet on Thursday for its last monetary policy meeting of the year. Many economists expect the central bank to keep rates on hold.But even the hint of higher borrowing costs in the future could draw criticism that the ECB is willing to sacrifice already fragile economic growth to contain inflationary pressures. Many investors and analysts may also complain that the ECB isn't providing a consistent message to the markets. European finance ministers have regularly warned against excessive euro strength, but higher interest rates would make euro-denominated assets, and therefore the euro, an even more attractive bet for investors amid a global dollar-bearish trend. "The damage to economic conditions (in Europe) due to higher interest rates would be huge," said Kikuko Takeda, currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi. "So I don't think hints about higher interest rates are likely." Ironically, if the ECB did raise borrowing costs in the future, that could eventually bring the euro lower because growth would suffer as a result, she added.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 07:07 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd was enough get 8900. thinking about top 1.9036..maybe from there will down, but if be broken welcome to 1.9111 as the top.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 07:06 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
hello all people here !!

prague jv 07:04 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
If I have the right information , we might focus on ECB Trichet comments at 08:15 GMT and SNB Roth at 08:00 GMT

wellington am 06:57 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
prague jv 06:24 GMT November 29, 2004

Thanks for the link. I read this article this morning. The contrarian in me thought of shorting the SPI (ASX200) - but I've done that one too many times before without success.

Either way, if the SPI does get to 4,000 I'll be taking a wad of 6 month PUTs around 3750.


prague jv 06:48 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
JF . very strange thinks happeninig at the moment in post communist countries at pressent . Cannot comment on it here .
I had a opportunity to read Shanghai BC posts and I am positive He knows more then I on that matter.

KL KL 06:41 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Long gbpusd 1.8913...got to be fast!! Talk of hike in euro rates is just the blow off I am looking for!! Long euro 1.3257...have to try

Both SL 7

tk jf 06:38 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
not sure the judge would like sitting on the bench in chechyna

tk jf 06:37 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
prague jv 06:28 GMT November 29, 2004
ok yes gr8 idea but what judge is going to rule agst the govt ? they may pull out some obscure rule to stop that before it gets that far

Syd 06:30 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Associated Press
Report: China Banks to Get Dollar Dealings

link

prague jv 06:28 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Institutional investors in Yukos, the giant Russian oil company, are considering suing the Russian government for hundreds of millions of dollars in compensation for the Kremlin's controversial decision to auction off the company's biggest asset.

prague jv 06:24 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Shares and dollar race for record
link :
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Shares-and-dollar-race-for-record/2004/11/28/1101577353551.html?oneclick=true

Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:20 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
I hope everyone had a good weekend I am showing for the eur/usd pair a dip and a bounce from support and retracement numbers (3235-45) as the intraday indicators get a chance to unwind a bit here. The pair is in overbought and extended area but it is not showing any signs of starting a major correction yet. Until the key support and key retracement are taken out the bulls are the king of the hill for now.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3300-10, 3340-50 and 3400-10. Main objective is still around the 3500-30 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3235-45, 3180-90, 3130-40, 3080-90 and 3030-3040.
Retracement numbers are 3215-25, 3140-50, 3085-95, 3030-40 and 2960-70.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3165-75, 3070-80, 2990-3000, 2910-2920, and 2810-20 for now key retracement number is 3080-90.
Support T/L is around 3150-3160 and 3020-30.
Support is around the 3235-45, 3200-10, 3180-90, 3140-50, 3100-10, 3060-80 and 3000-10 for now key support is around the 3060-80 area IMHO. GL GT

LDN LDN 06:14 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Wen hits U.S. over decline in dollar China Premier Wen Jiabao launched an indirect attack on the U.S. failure to halt the dollar slide while vowing not to revalue the yuan under pressure

prague jv 05:51 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Hello forum .Good trading week to all .
From what I can see , asia has not bring any significent movement into market , only adjustments.

Here are my updated levels and directions for possition trading .

Above level long , belowe short . Revers points are :
EUR/ 0.6978
135.88
1.3231
GBP/ 1.8949
USD/ 102.45

tk jf 05:44 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
im - ill get from jay on messenger later -gt-

Tokyo IM 05:41 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
tk jf, hello - I was thinking more like on Friday. You can contact me by e-mail via jay at global-view dot com. I think if you will ask him he will forward your e-mail address to me.

tk jf 05:33 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
sydney exactly i do agree im not real smart myself but if there were strong eur data out to support this movement id be first to say lets join 1.40 but its not the case its pure us driven phenomena - and when does the mkt give people a free ride or ticket out of trouble - anyway im sure at some point things will move more naturally but like everything in trading its picking your battles - and not making it an "alamo" on one position or one view

Sydney 05:28 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
tk jf your right , just hearing that European Central Bank are wanting to raise interest rates from 2.00% Wall Street Journal is reporting this week, which would be suicidal for the economy and a high Euro . Normally the markets would sell a currency down on a move like that because its cutting growth off at the roots at least the US economy is showing signs of recovery Europe is going backwards and will step into a black hole if they arn''t careful

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:26 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
aussie short here

LA fxnew 05:25 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
ok with this kind of movement ...
cable will hit 9015 again!!!!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:23 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
GBP/chf is good buy at 2.1550 area

KL KL 05:19 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
I fell for that

tk jf 05:17 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
syd its reality tho - aud shud not develop into a speculative bubble like eurusd is becoming - personally anyone buying aud above 79 is kind of out there - twice we touched 80 recently first time to 48 and second to 68 - u really think 3rd time wud be a charm? - i remind myself of this each day, so i will try to be patient with this market

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:14 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
eur/yen is Buy

Sydney 05:13 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
tk jf aussie data a bit of a shock , dont think its sunk in yet ridiculous number.

wellington 05:11 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY et 05 thanks

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:10 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
and Do not let shorting Cad cross Your mind for a few days

Rye, NY et 05:09 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
wellington 04:47 GMT November 29, 2004
Thanksgiving Holiday in the US on Thursday. Early close on Friday. Most CME staffers, I'm sure, took both Thursday and Friday off. Couldn't include Friday's data. Probably be out early this week....GL/GT

Singapore CM 05:08 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
buy euro near 1.3180 for today for new high, as long as 1.3080/1.3100 holds euro can still go higher

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:07 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
NZ is great sell here!!

tk jf 05:07 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
tokyo im - if u are free try thursday or friday this week if you are available let me know

tk jf 05:06 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
sydney - how goes the trading today?

Sydney 05:05 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Australian dollar is overvalued
In the wake of softer than expected inventory, building and investment data and a blowout in the current account deficit, economists on Monday scaled back their forecasts for Australia's third quarter gross domestic product growth.
And a strong performance in the September quarter last year means the annual pace of economic growth is expected to slump dramatically from the 4.1% clip set in the second quarter of this year ,forecast for 0.5% GDP growth in the third quarter from the second quarter, and 2.95% growth from a year earlier compares with a median forecast of a 0.7% on-quarter rise and a 3.1% on-year rise from a similar survey conducted on Friday.
The partial indicators that feed into the GDP data have disappointed so far, with Monday's record current account deficit causing the biggest surprise. Australia's current account deficit widened to a seasonally adjusted A$13.69 billion from an A$11.76 billion deficit in the second quarter.
Stephen Koukoulas, economist at TD Securities, said the current account data show a chronic problem on the external accounts, with the current account deficit seemingly entrenched around 6% of GDP at a time of booming commodity prices, booming GDP growth in Australia's major trading partners, and low interest rates. "In these circumstances, it would be reasonable to expect the current account deficit to be near historical lows, not at historical highs. "It suggests that the Australian dollar is overvalued - perhaps by a large amount and that one of the reasons for this overvaluation is the very high interest rate structure the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) has in place as it worked to tackle the credit, house price and household debt bubbles," Koukoulas said. In what is an increasingly widely held though still minority view, Koukoulas said the current account problem suggests the prospects for an interest rate cut are building.
"Importantly, the rate cut scenario is based on the well-known mix of falling house prices, falls in building approvals, low inflation, soft retail sales data and, more recently, an overvaluation of the Australian dollar," he said. Koukoulas said the RBA may start an easing cycle from its current 5.25% cash rate around or before the middle of 2005. Justin McCarthy, an economist at Westpac Bank, said the data are "nasty" given they show the deterioration in the balance on goods and services will subtract 0.8 percentage point from gross domestic product growth. "As a result, gross domestic product in the quarter will probably be quite soft," he said.
Westpac, which had forecast growth of 0.6% in GDP in the quarter, cut its forecast to 0.2%. ( AP.)

KL KL 05:05 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
SHORT gbpusd 1.8913...

gold coast martin 05:04 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
London 04:58 GMT November 29, 2004
As i posted before,todays aud position is mirror image to earlier of this year...if you retrace its path you will be guided as to the future ...g/t

London 04:58 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin , you never know with th lousy date today we could see the Aud hit the fan big time

Syd 04:55 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
After softer than expected inventory, building and investment data and blow out in current account deficit, economists scale back forecasts for Australia's 3Q GDP growth

nyc pd 04:49 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   


bandung jaksa 04:46 GMT November 29, 2004
I think the S in jaksa should be at the end of our name.....

wellington 04:47 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Can someone say why there were no IMM data out last week ?

bandung jaksa 04:46 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
keep buying euros as the main players are sleeping when they wake up we will all be rich and live like kings.

Ldn 04:35 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Australian current account deficit (13.69 against 12.5 bln expected) came in at worse than expected and further dampened expectations of another RBA rate hike .

this is a really bad number worse in respect than the US.

singapore kingpin 04:31 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
how many times did costello repeat
"hurting the exporters", it seems the censored has got nothing else to say.

Syd 04:23 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Strong $A tough for exporters: Costello
Treasurer Peter Costello says the strengthening Australian dollar is extremely challenging for the nation's exporters.
Mr Costello, commenting on balance of payments figures which show the nation's trade deficit increasing 16 per cent in the September quarter to $13.7 billion, said the stronger dollar was a major reason for the bigger deficit.
He said the deficit would also eat into Gross Domestic Product figures due out on Wednesday."One of the things that is undoubtedly challenging Australia's exports at the moment is the level of the Australian dollar, which is currently about 10 cents higher than its post-float average," he said.
"The level of the currency has made things harder for Australian exporters, in part this is because of commodity prices but largely ... it's because of the falling US dollar.
"We expect it will be a challenging year for exporters, as a consequence net exports will detract from the national accounts."Mr Costello said the falling $US was hurting a string of key currencies, particularly the euro and the yen.
He said it would be better if the adjustment now being experienced was shared by a larger basket of currencies.
The weaker US dollar would help America but would be a problem for Australian exporters."Whilst that will be advantageous for the US, those other currencies which are appreciating against the falling US dollar, will as a consequence find that their export competitiveness has been affected and that will make things harder for the exporters," he said.
smh

gold coast martin 04:12 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
FWIW....The aussie CRB INdex been at record high levels recently is due for a correction....for this week the index is a good indicator as to the direction of the aud.....g/t

gold coast martin 03:47 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 03:07 GMT November 24, 2004
One of the reason the [MOF] probably cannot intervene so easily is that FB issuance outstanding has risen to Y93tln in end of Jun as a result of massive interventions, and further FB issuance for intervention Yen funds would have a serious risk of interest rates rise despite increased intervention limit to Y140tln.Due to this we may have already seen INTERVENTION in a limited form...what they call the drip feed method...in efforts to keep yen over 103...the boj minutes for october should be interesting reading later on today....g/t

gold coast

gold coast martin 03:43 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 11:05 GMT November 10, 2004
...HOPE THIS HELPS..AS MUCH I WOULD LIKE THE BIG GUN TO FIRE AROUND 10520 LEVEL...Exporters have finished fixing forward contracts mostly above 105 for this FY. GDP growth around 2% and favorable companies" business results do not justify intervention. FB issuance margin of about Y50tln will be filled quickly if mega interventions resume, and increase of Yen denominated debt will not be welcomed by the nation. Intervened funds will concentrate in banks used for intervention, and BOJ has to adjust such biased funds flow for proper monetary policy. BOJ's further quantitative easing will not be consistent with the view economy is recovering. Only smoothing action is possible. .

This post may best explain japanese reluctance for intervention...g/t

LA fxnew 03:39 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
kl :
how do u play hanseng and fx together?
is that u got a broker that can trade them together?

LA fxnew 03:35 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Jersey: I think boj will do intervention tomorrow.. just got this kind of feeling :)

new jersey z 03:31 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
does a strong nikkei mean less of a chance of japan intervention for now?

Chicago JMI 03:28 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 03:21 GMT November 29, 2004
What happens now really doesn't mean much. Wait until euro session and the trend could change from bullish USD to bearish USD. Forex is very cyclical.

Dallas GEP 03:25 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
WELL FXNEW, seems to me all ccy's will be dollar bullish today but may have to wait until LONDON to determine from WHERE

LA fxnew 03:21 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
seems to me that cable is pointing its direction today (down)..
any good opinion guys???? thanks

Sydney 03:10 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
China likely to hike rates another 20 bps by year-end
Will this have a slowing affect on the chinese economies through 05 , appreciate anyone in the know give their view.

KL KL 02:59 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
out hang seng short 14091 -1 nearly took out my sl earlier by 1 pip and now down.......sticking to currency for now. Not sure why equties so strong..another blow off too?? Looking to short everything..LOL..just waiting for higher and better levels in booring Asian session

Philadelphia Caba 02:55 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 02:42 GMT November 29, 2004
Thanks GEP, see you tomorrow at NY opening. Good night & GT to all!

Dallas GEP 02:49 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
BTW I has a EUR/USD LONG from Friday but it got stopped -15. One thing is CERTAIN from Friday's orders. There certainly seemed to be some intervention orders that kicked when the Dollar went short on Chinese news that they were dumping some TBILLS (later news seemed LES significant).

So unabated US selling doesn't seem as likely today. I think however ranges will not be very wide FWIW

Dallas GEP 02:42 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
WEll Caba 6987 LONG is where it is waiting. I took all orders out on Friday EXCEPT that eur/chf short. Tempted to short GBP pretty soon but LONDON will probably drive it higher

Philadelphia Caba 02:36 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
GEP, do you still have set EUR/GBP long entry?

Syd 02:34 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Australian 3Q GDP data may yet show contraction, consensus forecasts will likely be massaged down to 0.2-0.4% on-quarter growth from earlier 0.7%. This may be a little difficult for the Aussie dollar to swallow in the near-term given the hefty positioning risk that exists
ABN Amro currency strategist David Mozina warns .

KL KL 02:23 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Why hong kong stock soaring?? Ok short hangseng 14090 sl 14120

Syd 02:16 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
China likely to hike rates another 20 bps by year-end, says JP Morgan chief China economist

KL KL 02:08 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd long from 1.8880 at 1.8906..+26 - 7 ..+19 still ok..Happy with +ve trades

Syd 02:05 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex neither do I we may get back to say 7870 area, because buyers are still waiting, but just got the feeling if the Euro dips further , it will be adios amigo for now

Dallas GEP 01:56 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Well that 1.5153 eur/chf SHORT order got taken while I was away

Hong Kong Qindex 01:54 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Syd 01:41 GMT - AUD/USD : Under the current condition I am not sure wheather we can see any meaningful rallies in the Asian session.

London. 01:53 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Anyone know if the trouble in UKraine will have a negative impact on the European currency going forward if they continue to talk of breakup of Ukraine. thanks

Tensions Ukraine with pro-Russia presidential candidate Yanukovych raising specter of breakup of country as supporters in Russia-speaking east, south threaten to declare autonomy if his win in disputed election's invalidated;

Mfld JM 01:45 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
KL KL - Appreciate your posts!

Syd 01:41 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex definitly is .

Hong Kong Qindex 01:41 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Speculative selling will increase when the market can penetrate through the key quantized level of my 44-day cycle reference. See details in my page. Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:36 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Syd 01:34 GMT - AUD/USD : The market is very weak and very explosive!

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 01:36 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
good luck for this week everyone.

TIA:-)

Syd 01:34 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
I suppose were into a sell on the rallies in the Aud for the time being Qindex is that right?

KL KL 01:32 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
yipes..that was quick..long sl taken... one more try long gbpusd 1.8880 sl 7 below

Hong Kong Qindex 01:29 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : It is negative when the market is moving away from the key quantized level of my 10-day cycle. It is now heading towards the key quantized level of my 44-day cycle. The key quantized level of my monthly cycle is located at 0.7455 which is going to be the distant target for this week.

Gen dk 01:29 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Ldn 01:27 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Yippee thanks for that

NYC YIPPEE 01:24 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Posted earlier on GVI

NYC YIPPEE 00:07 GMT November 29, 2004
Risk reward again makes this a very sensible investment:

Selling EURUSD 1.3272 Stop 1.3332 Target 1.3080.
Selling AUSD .7880 Stop .7925 target .7725.

Ldn 01:22 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
NYC yippee do you see aud as a sell?

oslo o 01:22 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Juneau CAR 00:42 GMT November 29, 2004
Everyone afraid to sell the dollar-lol. sorry I am a mining stock trader.

Sucker!!!!!!!!!

KL KL 01:17 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
ok I am out of gbpusd short from 1.8925 at 95 +35....just a good confidence booster to a good start of day.

Ok long here at 1.8895 sl 7 below

KL KL 01:09 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Juneau CAR, what mining/commodity stock are you longing or planning? How about gold stock? Any trade on oil? A bit toppy yet or buy on retracement? TIA I think RBA could intervene and help Aussie down a bit quicker...they have a nice history

houston st 01:06 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   

KL -- eur$ has a better chance of seeing 1.35xx then of Houston seeing snow...good trades...

KL KL 01:00 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
houston st, whoops you're right I have fat finger problem....meant 1.8925 .

Hope all is well at your end...is it snowing yet in texas?

houston st 00:54 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   

KL -- better check your entry price...gl/gt.

KL KL 00:54 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
ok first trade on this new day short gbpusd 1.8625. hung around here long enough

Syd 00:53 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja fully agrree those numbers are horrific
as bad as the US and thats why its falling

BRISBANE 00:53 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Any views on $AU dropping back to low 70's in the coming months?

Juneau CAR 00:42 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Everyone afraid to sell the dollar-lol. sorry I am a mining stock trader.

Juneau CAR 00:41 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Everyone afraid to bid the dollar up, but no one wants to buy dollar either. So it sits. We may have a stationary consolidation like we did at 1.299.

Gold follows the dollar. period.

Sydney Ge11Ja 00:35 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Syd 00:31 GMT November 29, 2004

This number reinforces my view that the AUD should not appreciate as much as the other Asian Currencies, US problems arent a result of a weak AUD and all that is happening is Australian terms of trade will worsen etc . That figure will detract 0.8 % from GDP, its not the best situation

Think we have chance to see this back to low 0.78s at least preferred range is 0.7400-0.7700

All IMHO of course GL n GT

wellington 00:32 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
BNZ says chances of RBNZ directly intervening in currency markets if other central banks do the same

Syd 00:31 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Australia 3Q Curr Acct Deficit A$13.69B;Forecast A$12.5B

syd 00:25 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
13 Hurt As Powerful Quake Rocks Japan's Hokkaido

KL KL 00:20 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Top, Top , Top of the morning/night world...what a week eh last week...what a week...hope it will be like that this week and more weeks like last friday.

with the world coming back online......officially, everything looks toppy but hints of blow off cannot be ruled out when it is so close to touch Pluto...just one -ve US figures is sufficient.

Oil also poised so is gold...all just waiting for bad or good news to move either direction Both are equally devastating. Make no mistake, IMHO risk is still on the long side. GL GT all

London. 00:19 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
Euro data due out later today with talk tha the Nov France consumer confidence set to fall to minus 20

hk 00:14 GMT November 29, 2004 Reply   
JPN Oct Retail Sales Fall 1.4%, Large Stores Down 4.1%

 




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