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Forex Forum Archive for 11/30/2004

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Lahore FM 23:49 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Thanx,Prague,jv,U have been most kind.

prague jv 23:41 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
my medium trade eur/jpy from 134.77 has revers point still at 136.05 for now .
eur/jpy mid term cykle has reach overbought levels now and is ready for some consolidation B4 next direction . Short term price action around 136.70 is worth takeing notes and is sign for possible extension of mid term up move .

Gen dk 23:39 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London 23:34 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
OECD in their report dont sound too impressed with the Euro rise agains the dollar and raises concerns saying this is putting global recovery at risk , with the eurozone still reliant on exports for growth, (FX) adjustments can endanger world growth -

Does anyone now call for the Euro going back to parity in our lifetime ? just curious.

Lahore FM 23:25 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Would anyone be kind enough to offer medium term view on Eur/Jpy?

Livingston nh 23:24 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
I wonder if the OECD is allowed to use sharp objects or if they are confined to non-toxic crayons to write reports -- suggested a full 1% rate rise to BoE -- LINK

That should be enough to send sterling above 2.00 - maybe that's what King had in mind earlier today

Global-View Research 23:24 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   

Bonds Catch Structural Flu From FX...Perhaps (FXA)

One of the glaring inconsistencies in the weak dollar trade has been the question of funding the US current account deficit. While every currency trader from Auckland to New York has confidently sold dollars on the notion the US can't keep funding the growing external imbalance indefinitely implying a weaker dollar, finding a bond trader to say the same thing has been difficult if not impossible, well until Greenspan said so November19. And then there was Monday. Like any asset price, it often takes a big price move to generate critical mass in a story or theme explaining why prices changed...See the full update in our research section CLICK HERE

London 23:22 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
OTTAWA (AP)--U.S. Tuesday warned the Ukrainian prime minister over the use of force, and urged support for peaceful protest to his challenger for the presidential post.

Surely that cant be positive for the Euro ?

Ldn 23:20 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
OECD Wants Higher China Rates

nyc sa 23:07 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Athens could u plz be more explicit as to what u mean ? thnx.

Athens 22:18 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
My feeling, new or no new USD low on Dec 1st, kiss the currencies good bye this week. Just my gut

Brisbane PhD 22:14 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD long stopped out at 16:50 for b/e, 1.3253.

London Misha 21:47 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Chicago - PHLX does plain vanilla FX options - visible pricing and the contract can go to cash delivery. Just an idea...

KL KL 21:47 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
While US have been laughing all the way to the bank on dollar decline...inventories and goods keep building up in Europe and Asia.... All sounding too familiar for me ...some thing big and bad is about to happen....matter of time

Chicago 21:39 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
nice...

Chicago 21:38 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Anyone know of a good place to trade forex options. I looked at censored and censored Exotics. The digitals are horribly overpriced, and once you buy, you cannot sell them. Almost criminal if you ask me.

Does anyone deal Exotics electronically?

YVR TTT 21:36 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
YES JOSKA FISH-ER?

London. 21:30 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Fred Bergsten, director of the Institute for International Economics, said the Dollar decline must occur against Asian currencies - and not against the euro, he said. So far, the dollar's slump has been manifested mainly in the rise of the European common currency. "East Asia must play...a dominant role," Bergsten said. China, in particular, must change the level at which it fixes the value of its currency to the dollar, raising it by 20%. In addition, he said, the U.S. government must take steps quickly to rein in the ballooning federal budget deficit.

"We believe that at the start of next year...it is imperative for the United States to launch a credible program to reduce the budget deficit substantially" over the next few years, Bergsten said. That deficit stood at $412 billion in 2004, a record. The Bush administration has said it cut the deficit in half by 2009.

Those steps, Bergsten said, will help diminish the risk that the gradual decline in the value of the dollar could turn into "disorderly" rout that would imperil the global economic recovery.

Manchester Daniel 21:21 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Just making a casual observation of AUD day chart - its not a currency I trade often, but seems to be alot of comments today about this currency.

Today will be the 3rd DOWN day in a row for AUD/$. I quick glance of my day chart for the year shows that a 3 day loss has been the longest losing streak AUD has had this year. This is not to say it cant go down tomorrow,but, its price action this year would suggest at least a pause tomorrow of the down move.

Also there is a support line at 7617 off the 6853 abd 7222 lows. This line is rising by 13 pips per day - I make that on Friday this line would be at 7656. Would expect that at least on first approach, this line would hold for a reasonable bounce .

The 21sma (an average I use as part of my studies for other pairs) comes in AT MARKET 7716. Price has been over the 21sma since 21 Sept, and is offering support at moment.

Last point: From the 19 July high 7346 thru the congestion zone highs of 5 Nov-11Nov - if one makes a line, the line came in today AT THE LOW 7695.

Overall, AUD looks reasonably supported here. Again, this is not a currency I trade often - just making some chart observations, which tend to support the conclusion of the link posted from Wellington.

Comments welcomed - gl gt

YVR TTT 21:20 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Looks like the Big boys are on the wrong "PD" pathxcrossing

Syd 21:17 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Looks like the Big boys were trying to trip Aussie stop under 77 but not successful that time

Syd 21:15 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
wellington am very interesting thanks a lot for that.

wellington am 21:12 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Syd 21:07 GMT November 30, 2004

Syd, I've found Chuck's FX analysis from the Daily Phennig to be about the most reliable there is. Chuck, if you're reading this, keep up the great work mate!

Syd 21:07 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
wellington am many thanks

wellington am 21:06 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
http://www.dailypfennig.com/currentIssue.aspx

Rivonia PipPirate 21:02 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
charts tell e/g:
..6915...6929...6930..6943...=S..R=..6970...7000..

Syd 21:01 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
wellington am hi do you have the website for that press thanks

wellington am 20:57 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
From the Daily Phennig:

Australia posted an ugly Current Account Deficit last month, and this has caused the A$ to get sold... Australia has had difficulty getting this deficit down in recent months, but, I'm not worried... At $10 billion in dollar terms, it's not something that can't be dealt with... If the economy was faltering, and China wasn't growing at a 9% clip, one would worry about this number... But right now... Australia's Current Account Deficit problem is not even a drop in the bucket to the U.S.'s problem! I look at the A$ sell off as a real opportunity!

Antwerp Tom 20:57 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Hi GEP, sorry been away for some time. Are you still holding € shorts and in general what's your short term outlook for the rogue? TIA GL GT

Dallas GEP 20:29 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
KL no I am not YET

chi 20:22 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
and now the kiwi as well must be concerted effort

chi 20:17 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
somebody walking the aussie down again , just like yesterday afternoon. Must be ready to start a stop hunt

KL KL 20:16 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP you short gbpusd yet??

YVR TTT 20:12 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
see brasil

NJ RT 20:08 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
folks ...where do u think EUR/GBP will go in the next 24 hours ? Thank You

dc CB 19:59 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
http://stockcharts.com

Spotforex NY 19:58 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
bigcharts.com

praga jan 19:55 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
could somebody recomand me a free site with charts for american stocks?thanks for your kind!

Tallinn viies 19:38 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
MNI reports interesting names were on the bid side near 1,3250. fwiw

gold coast martin 19:37 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
On a non-forex note:just saw BENNY HINN{MIRACLE CRUSADER } ON TV..i thought he would be the perfect replacement for Arafat...he can do miracles with money like Arafat did{disappear} and also he is palestinian....it will be a miracle if he can avoid the israeli predator drones...BENNY HINN,..THIS IS YOUR DAY!!!...got to laugh ..people like this exist only in america.....g/t

Chicago CME 19:17 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Prop traders selling euro and pound here. I'm selling here too as m/t buyers look like they are done for now.

Tallinn viies 19:13 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
will sell half of my euros at 1,3321 fwiw

Dallas GEP 19:13 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
YEp...that Aussie short was a little too quick...will reload higher on it....CABA, re: eur/gbp will wait for pairs to consolidate a couple more hours

ny 19:11 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
is there anybody out there not bearish on the aussie now ? Who does not expect a bad print from the gdp later? It seems to me market very bearish , maybe overly so on aussie .Have been selling it for 3 days now.Be careful

Chicago CME 19:07 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
seeing a bit more euro buying here

Chicago CME 19:04 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
looking for cable to print a new high ahead of the close.

gold coast martin 18:24 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 18:17 GMT November 30, 2004
VERY TRUE..but from a gbp prospective...whar helped the gbp tonite was daiwa securities of a large chunk of gbp instead of their customary aud and kiwi dose...this type of transaction does not happen every day or week....it was a one off....g/t

Philadelphia Caba 18:23 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP, r'u thinking about buy more eur/gbp around 0.6950?

Calabash TarHeel 18:18 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Aud/Usd: When .7710 gives way, think .7660 will come pretty quickly. Imho.
gl,gt

Makassar Alimin 18:17 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
be careful guys, things are very mixed at the moment, on some pairs there is no doubt that dollar is making a run but other pairs are still unchanged or even bearish dollar for example gbp is actually making higher high and euro is still unchanged, best is to wait for more confirmation, dont rush on a day like this

KL KL 18:15 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
I think gold will hold up aussie down ward spiral for the time being.

gold coast martin 18:07 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 14:26 GMT November 30, 2004
FWIW...the flows that the kiwi has been receiving inthe last 4-5 months while initially beneficial will soon prove to be very unhealthy for the little bird....unable to fly,will soon fall over the cliff.....good time for a short.....g/t

ATL...ADD THIS ONE TO YOUR AUSSIE COLLECTION...enter over 71 with target 69 in 3 days.......66 7 days ....g/t
With your aussie time frame:When this currency starts its downward spiral it really dips.....best is to keep a close watch on it and play it by ear...any pre-determined timeframe may not give you maximum pip return...nurse it along ...g/t

Dallas GEP 18:05 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
7714 short on Aussie 7726 stop

Atl TJ 17:57 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 17:50 GMT November 30, 2004

No argument on the 7500-7600 area on the Aussie. But I was thinking end if the week timeframe. Maybe even early next week as I am not expecting such down force. I am thinking more chop and slop in its travels south.

Helsinki iw 17:54 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
The long- to medium term CTA:s have been max short USD for some time now. This is significant because they are allocated the bulk of funds in this strategy. Higher frequency funds are much smaller as a group and also will dump their positions quicker if they go against them. Unlikely these guys alone can push the dollar to new lows.

Dallas GEP 17:51 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Well I think AUSSIE weakness shows up mainly in it'sa inability to long even when both euro and gbp were making their long runs. Shorts from 7730-40 area should work

gold coast martin 17:50 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
fwiw.

Atl TJ 17:46 GMT November 30, 2004
DR Q is on the right path there...g/t....but just extend your timeframe a bit into the european session.....g/t

Chicago CME 17:46 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
CTAs looking to buy more euro on dips. Also buyers of pound and canadian. fwiw.

Atl TJ 17:46 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 17:07 GMT November 30, 2004
AUD/USD : It is likely that we will see 0.75 - 0.76 traded in the next Asian session.

Thats Bold. I hope you are correct as I am Short that pair.

NJ RT 17:37 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
singapore kingpin what is your view at EUR/GBP ? Thank you

NJ RT 17:36 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
closed eur/usd @ 1.3271 +6

singapore kingpin 17:32 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Euro 1.3280 ready to nosedive soon again towards 1.3150,
Australia GDP out in a few hourws will be a SURPRISE to the DOWNSIDE.

KL KL 17:26 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
out long gbpusd +8 at 66...prefer to short this pair...traps are set above

KL KL 17:23 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
longed gbpusd 1.9058...sl 7 below...gold up again?? set traps on short at 1.9095 sl 12 above

NJ RT 17:17 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
open long eur/usd @1.3265

River Falls_USA_ PB 17:10 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 15:42 GMT November 30, 2004 ///thank you for your response. IMO both debt and wealth is experiencing a global rebalancing...yes, away from the dollar standard and crossing borders without political alliances as in the past. The world will have to be ready with rapidly growing economies in Russia, China, etc. tilting that balance even more the coming decade. And Bush in not to blame for this "rebalancing"...his economic policy is just accelerating the story IMHO. gt/gl

KL KL 17:10 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Biting my lips with my shorts on gbpusd...locking in 40 pips not with sl at 1.9085...ok. no more cute stuff like tralling stops..out gbpusd short at 1.9060 +65...this is long term for me...4 hrs

Halifax CB 17:08 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Lndn Frnd - Re. GBP, using an andrews pitchfork on the weeklies gives an indication of maybe 1.285 as support. The most optimistic support line (for Eurusd bulls) I have is the rising trend line from mid Oct to 22Nov, and that's around 1.32

Chicago CME 17:07 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Seeing some CTA buying of Euro. Back up to 1.3300 i think.

Hong Kong Qindex 17:07 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : It is likely that we will see 0.75 - 0.76 traded in the next Asian session.

Dallas Mauricio 17:06 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Covered remaining Cable shorts @ 1.9061 for +57 pips. My charting service went down, so I am calling it a day @ 2.5x daily goal. Cable was unusually volitile today. GL all & keep your stops.

Hong Kong Qindex 17:04 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
The key quantized level is the common factor of my projected curves. It is acting like a super magnet and it is a very important pivot point in my system.

singapore kingpin 17:02 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Chicago CME 16:56 GMT November 30, 2004
don't expect euro, pound or cad to fall much further as there are many looking to cover underwater shorts.


the slide has just begun.

Hong Kong Qindex 17:02 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 12:00 GMT November 30, 2004
GBP/USD : Quantized levels of 44-Day Cycle (29/11)


A) : ... 1.8556 ... // 1.8712 - 1.8793 - {1.8873}* - 1.8952 - 1.9035 // ... 1.9196 ...


B) : ... 1.8458 ... // 1.8605 - 1.8739 - {1.8873}* - 1.8977 - 1.9081 // ... 1.9289 ...


C) ; ... 1.8389* ... // 1.8631 - 1.8752 - {1.8873} - 1.8995 - 1.9116 // 1.9358* ...

Hong Kong Qindex 11:54 GMT November 30, 2004
GBP/USD : Quantized Level of 10-Day Cycle (29/11)


A) : ... 1.8597 ... // 1.8753 - 1.8832 - 1.8910* - 1.8988 - 1.9066 // ... {1.9222} ...


B) : ... 1.8472* ... // 1.8660 - 1.8753 - 1.8847 - 1.8981 - 1.9035 // ... {1.9222} ...


C) : ... 1.8284 ... // 1.8519 - 1.8636 - 1.8753* - 1.8871 - 1.8988 // {1.9222} ...

Hong Kong Qindex 17:00 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 16:54 GMT - GBP/USD : 1.9222 is the key quantized level of my current 10-day cycle and it is likely that the market will trade below this point. The key quantized level of my current 44-day cycle is positioning at 1.8873. Therefore it is reasonable to believe that GBP/USD will trade between 1.8873 - 1.9222 and the mid-point reference is 1.9048.

Lndn Frnd 16:59 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
the question where is bear term support for Euro

Halifax CB 16:59 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Gold's down over 1% from this morning's highs. Wonder if that means anything...Re. CAD & Eur - though they've been coupled together for quite awhile, I get the feeling that's breaking apart, and I wouldn't be surprised to see CAD strengthen again tomorrow, after the month's end this p.m. (especially if Bush & Martin hit it off...), with Euro falling some more. It has to recoup a bit before really popping 1.333. For GBP, I'm looking for a re-enactment of Sept. 92. I know, in my dreams.....

NJ RT 16:57 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
experts ...where is the resistance point for EUR/USD ?

Chicago CME 16:56 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
don't expect euro, pound or cad to fall much further as there are many looking to cover underwater shorts.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:55 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Speculative selling will increase if the market is trading below 1.9066.

Dallas Mauricio 16:55 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Closing my Cable short before top of the hour as London is closing.

HK Kevin 16:54 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:29 GMT, Welcome back to HK.
Does these figures mean m/t short Cable position should stop above 1.9222?

Philadelphia CABA 16:47 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 16:42 GMT November 30, 2004

Trying to pick bottom for retractment.

slv sam 16:45 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
as long as $/cad below 1.1960/70 e/$ will stay strong..GT

Budapest Daniel 16:44 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
sure

slv sam 16:03 GMT November 30, 2004
be ready for new attack on 1.3330..and this time we may reach much higher...imo.GT

KL KL 16:43 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
something is happening suddenly audusd move rather quickly down compared with others. I think its a short everything under the sun ...locking in my 20 pips for my gbpusd short at 1.9105. Maybe US boys waking up??

NJ RT 16:42 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Philadelphia CABA what is you view at this pair ...last night got some @ 6966 stop 6928 LT 7020 ?

Hong Kong Qindex 16:42 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP : Neutral zone = ... // 0.6937 - 0.6944 - 0.6950 // ...

Spotforex NY 16:41 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
escalator up...elevator down

That always seems the case Gecko......

Philadelphia CABA 16:40 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Just bought more eurgbp @ 0.6951

Hong Kong Qindex 16:40 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP : It is negative if the market is trading below 0.6983.

van Gecko 16:39 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Gold getting dumped again.. below 445 is a slam dunk on the Majors vs the buck..

"01:19 GMT November 30, 2004
Gold has a tendency to fall suddenly & viciously from great heights.. liquidity had taken a nose dive in the recent days after climbing $85 in 6 months & 35 bucks in 4 weeks up to the recent multi-year high.. a near term liquidation correction down to the $430's is now in the cards.. (who wants to be the last big sucker to buy Gold up here at $455 and watch it dive 30 big bucks shortly after?)
needless to say, the Majors which had followed Gold like Pavlov's dogs up to the recent heights will follow it back down..
a break below $430/420 could trigger a major panic liquidation which would tilt the odds for a multi-month correction for the Dollar, and support the theory that the Dollar/Gold is at/near a m/t inflection point.."


Dallas GEP 16:38 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
OK should now see some dollar longs come in

Dallas Mauricio 16:37 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, I only trade GBP/USD.

NJ RT 16:36 GMT November 30, 2004
Dallas Mauricio
What is you view on EUR/GBP for today? Thank you

Dallas Mauricio 16:37 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
I'm less stable than most traders. Watching this level closely for exit stage right.

Dallas GEP 16:33 GMT November 30, 2004
But..based it COULD very well short (GBP) from here. I just think it is less stable than some of the other pairs

NJ RT 16:36 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Mauricio
What is you view on EUR/GBP for today? Thank you

Tallinn viies 16:36 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
bought more euros at 1,3279 fwiw
will add at 1,3239

Hong Kong Qindex 16:34 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP/AUD : It is still running strong!

NJ RT 16:34 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP Thank you ...

LDN. 16:33 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Corporate Profit Repatriation Eyed on the $USD

Dallas GEP 16:33 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
But..based it COULD very well short (GBP) from here. I just think it is less stable than some of the other pairs

Dallas Mauricio 16:32 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
1.9092 is key support for cable. If broken can be the beginning of a big retracement. Your mileage may vary.

Dallas GEP 16:31 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Tell you what I am getting out of GBP short now at BE.....GBP still looks somewhat bullish to me now

KL KL 16:31 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Good ....caught one cable short at 1.9125 from trap set earlier...now awake and I think I should let this run a bit more down.

Dallas GEP 16:29 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
I wonder what logic KING used for his statement. If the prices on English made exports go up due to the exchange rate being higher against the other world currencies, how in the hellll will THAT result in LESSENING the trade imbalance. I don't get it!!! Unless the english products have complete price insensitivity to the rest of the world.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:29 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 11:54 GMT November 30, 2004
GBP/USD : Quantized Level of 10-Day Cycle (29/11)


A) : ... 1.8597 ... // 1.8753 - 1.8832 - 1.8910* - 1.8988 - 1.9066 // ... {1.9222} ...


B) : ... 1.8472* ... // 1.8660 - 1.8753 - 1.8847 - 1.8981 - 1.9035 // ... {1.9222} ...


C) : ... 1.8284 ... // 1.8519 - 1.8636 - 1.8753* - 1.8871 - 1.8988 // {1.9222} ...

NJ RT 16:23 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP where is your stop on short gbp/usd?

LDN. 16:21 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
CAD Yield Differential Over USD Lowest Since May

Dallas Mauricio 16:20 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
From Forexnews.com

Cable Soars To Multi-Month High on the Back of King

The sterling posted sharp gains across the board amid comments from Bank of England Governor Mervyn King. He said that the sterling did not necessarily have to depreciate in order for the UK to reduce its trade deficit. His comments gave traders the green light to bid up the sterling, as he may have implicitly revealed his comfort with current strength. King also added that if all forex adjustment fell onto the euro, it would make life difficult for the Eurozone.

Dallas Mauricio 16:15 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
You're a good man GEP!

Dallas GEP 16:12 GMT November 30, 2004
OK short now again on GBP from 1,9103

Tallinn viies 16:14 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
rumours about eurusd month end fixing demand fwiw

Dallas GEP 16:12 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
OK short now again on GBP from 1,9103

Syd 16:09 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
US Investment Names Pile Into Shorts aud

Hong Kong B747 16:08 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
closed 50% of EUR/USD short @ 1.3286

placed orders:
short @ 1.3325
long @ 1.3235

looking to short EUR/JPY @ GBP/JPY later this week; next week looks like 3%-4% move up for JPY.

gt all

Dallas Mauricio 16:08 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
I'm still short. Not that there is anything wrong with that.

Dallas GEP 16:03 GMT November 30, 2004
OPPS!!! Forgot....London longs closng out

Philadelphia CABA 16:08 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP, what's your s/l on eur/gbp?

Dallas GEP 16:03 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
OPPS!!! Forgot....London longs closng out

slv sam 16:03 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
be ready for new attack on 1.3330..and this time we may reach much higher...imo.GT

London. 16:03 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Trichet Signals No Rate Rise

JHB CDB 16:00 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Thank You M & GEP

Dallas GEP 16:00 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Thnaks M but I don't think it will much range that's why I closed out

Dallas GEP 15:59 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Closed POUND shorts @ +15

Dallas Mauricio 15:58 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Great Call on Cable short GEP!

Helsinki iw 15:56 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
nh, to be prepared for an unforseen event that may or may not occur, is of essence?

Dallas Mauricio 15:52 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Here we go GEP!

Tallinn viies 15:51 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
first support at 1,3270/75
will add there little
and next support at 1,3230/35.
will buy there also, just to restore prevoius position. those I sold at 1,3314

LDN. 15:49 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram
could you give your view on the aud since the cronic data deficit how will it be affected

Zurich Picasso 15:48 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Anyone has any signals that EUR/CAD has top in place for now?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:45 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
hi guys

Livingston nh 15:44 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
By definition a surprise can't be discounted but a rate cut by ECB might qualify or an announcement of a widening of Chinese peg (both higher AND lower) - the peg itself needs to go but that is probably a second step - whenever "authorities" seem certain to act (or not) the opposite is likely

Tallinn viies 15:42 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Zurich Picasso 15:36 GMT - new high is new high to me. Im not going to delete it from the charts.

in the big picture of course it doesnt matter...

Calcutta Vikram 15:42 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Euro back down at 1.3300 as I type. Perhaps the 1.3330-1.3220 range trade view has merit.

River Falls.....if you would like to correspond, please ask Jay for my e-mail. Retiring for the night. Cheers all.

Hong Kong B747 15:38 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
took EUR/USD short @ 1.3326

gt all

Calcutta Vikram 15:38 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
River Falls, USA.....that was in response to your post.

Please, HK RF, I do not wish to be drawn into a political discussion, which could become emotional. Please excuse me for that.

Calcutta Vikram 15:38 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
River Falls, USA.....that was in response to your post.

Please, HK RF, I do not wish to be drawn into a political discussion, which could become emotional. Please excuse me for that.

Dallas Mauricio 15:38 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
My charts now concur with you. Short cable @ 1.9118.

Dallas GEP 15:35 GMT November 30, 2004
M, Yes I agree BUT I believe we will have at least a 38% rertracement

Zurich Picasso 15:36 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 15:34 GMT November 30, 2004
after new high of the year moved my stop to 1,3219 fwiw
target still at 1,3360/70

Well 2 pips above previous low for 10 seconds... i wouldnt call
it "new high".
Rather a double top dont u think?

Makassar Alimin 15:35 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
for the moment, i would not long cable at this level, even if it makes new high today, would wait for a little pullback but to go this high after breaking 1.9036 is significant achievement

a direct break into 1.89 handle again will be bearish to me

Calcutta Vikram 15:35 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Please take a look at this chart....
it has not been updated with current figures. If it were, it would show a break of a 30 year declining trend resistance, and suggest an eventual target in the region of 2.0+

IF that were to happen, it would also mean that the Pound could become a "strong" currency in the years ahead. OBVIOUSLY, the Pound would not become a "strong" currency in isolation. The EURO would too and so would the YEN. And even GOLD would be much stronger than it currently is.

All put together, this would be tantamount to a break away from the "Dollar Standard". I don't know whether the world is ready for that at the moment, or not.

Dallas GEP 15:35 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
M, Yes I agree BUT I believe we will have at least a 38% rertracement

Zurich Picasso 15:34 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 15:32 GMT November 30, 2004

My thoughts exactly.

Tallinn viies 15:34 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
after new high of the year moved my stop to 1,3219 fwiw
target still at 1,3360/70

Dallas GEP 15:33 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
YEP CABA I am...

Philadelphia CABA 15:33 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Bought eurgbp @ 0.6961

Pecs Andras 15:32 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Something big is being cooked in the market, I guess. USD/CAD and EUR/USD are both close to session highs, which is unusual, to say the least.
If CAD remains to be a good duide dog, we are soon in for a nice EUR dive

Dallas Mauricio 15:31 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Bias is still to the upside.

Dallas GEP 15:27 GMT November 30, 2004
OK well 1.8980 target on GBP shorts but I expect now a test of today's high fisrt

Philadelphia CABA 15:30 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP, are you still in eurgbp long?

HK [email protected] 15:29 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 15:24 GMT November 30, 2004

Live and let live is not exactly what the terrorists think.

It is not exactly the time for soul pampering.

The world is still facing big problems, and not because of Bush.

Makassar Alimin 15:29 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
nice rally by cable today

Halifax CB 15:29 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
of the majors+2, Canada seems to have the best performing economy; yet its currency is the only one - well, except for Aud (and that one is understandable) - to weaken significantly against the USD in the last day or two. Curious....

Dallas GEP 15:29 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
CDB, well I think we have top in place already for today but I certianly could be wrong.

Dallas GEP 15:27 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
OK well 1.8980 target on GBP shorts but I expect now a test of today's high fisrt

River Falls_USA_ PB 15:24 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 15:19 GMT November 30, 2004 ///what bondaries are you speaking of? The topic is sparking my interest. gt

Calcutta Vikram 15:24 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
The danger in all this is the fundamental difference between the Clinton and Bush regimes is that Clinton seemed to believe in "Live and Let Live". Bush seems to have a different philosophy

JHB CDB 15:23 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
To both Cowboys (DALLAS) :-)

What do you expect from the EUR/USD short term?

Dallas Mauricio 15:19 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
I'm still long GEP, but was interested in your target. TIA

Dallas GEP 15:08 GMT November 30, 2004
Shorted GBP @ 1.9122 with 30 pip stop, will see

Calcutta Vikram 15:19 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
On a number of issues, in a number of markets, I can't shake off the feeling that we could be entering a period of chaos in the coming months and years unless certain boundaries are respected.

Van jv 15:17 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Both Euro and US confidence stagnate

Calcutta Vikram 15:16 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin.....At the moment, Yes.
I may be totally off on this, but I see no solid reason for the Pound to break out of a 30 year decline. Let us see how the market closes tonight. BUT, I do admit that a strong close today could also signal a further rise towards 2.00 in the coming months. I'll trade with the flow from tomorrow, sure, with Stops in place, but things look obscene to me.

Basically, what we are talking about is almost tantamount to a change in world order. An ever weakening Dollar could be very bad for global trade and growth, as it appears to my simpleton mind.

bombay a 15:12 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
thanks andras

Pecs Andras 15:11 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
bombay a
US ECON: Consumer Confidence Fell to 90.5 in November
US ECON: Chicago PMI Fell to 65.2 in Nov vs. 68.5

Ldn 15:11 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
is there any affect on Euro with this --Ukrainian banking system is under threat of disruption if the current political crisis is prolonged and escalates, which could begin to negatively affect macroeconomic stability.

London. 15:08 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Overvalued AUD and CAD performed strongly recently AUD has appreciated more sharply on a trade-weighted basis, As a result AUD is expensive relative to CAD difficult to justify given Canada's superior macroeconomic fundamentals which include a sizable current account surplus. Both (AUD) and CAD look susceptible to a pullback BCA Research report.

bombay a 15:08 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
what was cons conf and chicago pmi ???? anyone please...

Dallas GEP 15:08 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Shorted GBP @ 1.9122 with 30 pip stop, will see

HK Kevin 15:06 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 14:57 GMT, still cautious about Cable?
Alimin, you are right.

gold coast martin 15:06 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:58 GMT November 30, 2004
HI KEVIN....i have 13334 on euro and 7789 on aussie on my platform,,,,,,i think that is it....next correlation we should be looking at is euro 13219 aussie 7659....timeframe=beginning of thurdsay ny session....g/t

Ldn 15:04 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Chi Purch Mgmt:Employment At Highest Level Since Aug '88

slv sam 15:04 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
weak cad yesterday and today can be a worrying observation for those who are us$ bearish!GT

Makassar Alimin 15:02 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:58 GMT November 30, 2004

1.3334 was hit here mate

Mtl JP 14:59 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Mauricio 14:44 / Check out GVI.. here is an extract:
GVI john 20:51 GMT November 29, 2004
CALENDAR
TUESDAY, November 30, 2004
23:30 GMT- JPN- October Unemployment Rate, vs. 4.6%
23:30 GMT- JPN- Preliminary Industrial Production. -0.7%
00:30 GMT- AUS- October Retail Trade, +0.8%
00:30 GMT- AUS- October Building Approvals
07:45 GMT- FRA- Oct Unemployment: vs. 9.9% in Sept
10:00 GMT- EUR- Nov Business Confidence: vs. -2.0 in Oct
10:00 GMT- EUR- Nov Consumer Confidence: vs. -14.0 in Oct
11:00 GMT- UK- Nov CBI Distributive Trades Survey
13:30 GMT- CDA- 3Q04 GDP
13:30 GMT- US- 3Q04 GDP: vs. 3.7% advance estimate, see 3.7%
15:00 GMT- US- Nov Chicago PMI: vs. 68.5 in Oct
15:00 GMT- US- Nov CB Consumer Confidence: vs. 92.8 in Oct, see 96.5

GVI has a full economic calendar updated each week and posted each day.

Contact [email protected] to get a trial access.

HK Kevin 14:58 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 14:17, your 1.3334 almost hit. Let's see.

Calcutta Vikram 14:57 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Maybe I speak too soon and incorrectly, but I see chances of the Euro trading sideways between 1.3330-1.3220 for a while (maybe a day). Range trades MIGHT work. Cheers

van Gecko 14:55 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
viktor 14:20.. may be those Men in Black want to collect a few more singers before turning off the stage lights.. or they may want to start December off with a bang, or before Sydney open its 1st December trading week..

"15:43 GMT November 28, 2004
.... with last week's Dollar spike & close down at the extremes of another multi-year low set-up, just think what would happen if those Men in Black were to flood the market with Dollar bids 5 minutes before Sydney open its trading week..
"

Omaha Warren 14:55 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Stay with the program kids, a big figure a day keeps the doctor away. Never buy sinking assets.

Dallas Mauricio 14:52 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Key US data @ the top of the hour!

Austin rb 14:51 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas M

thanks

gold coast martin 14:49 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Now that the shackles have been put on the aussie,look for the shackles to be put on the kiwi as well....by early trading friday we should see the start of the kiwi downtrend.....as this liitle bird cannot fly the fall will be fatal......excuse the irony.....g/t

slv sam 14:49 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
we need some us$ bulls..it is zero sum game i suppose!GT

mbonky bandung 14:48 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
king pin i bet u have a lot of short position of those currency :)

singapore kingpin 14:46 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
you will hear alot of this later on, Euro and gbp climb the stairs but they come down the lift.

Dallas Mauricio 14:46 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
When you are strictly an intraday trader, relying on the current charts, you learn to ignore these statements.

singapore kingpin 14:43 GMT November 30, 2004
[Euro 1.3315, Gbp 1.9120] Euro will touch 1.29xx by end of this week and gbp 1.8888..scary slides in the making.

Dallas Mauricio 14:44 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/FXCalendar.html

Austin rb 14:42 GMT November 30, 2004
Is there a site for a good economic release calendar the sites I use did not have all UK data releases listed last night

singapore kingpin 14:43 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
[Euro 1.3315, Gbp 1.9120] Euro will touch 1.29xx by end of this week and gbp 1.8888..scary slides in the making.

Hong Kong B747 14:43 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
knoxville dan-k 14:32 GMT November 30, 2004 // you are so right, I see my duty to ensure that my kids will have Asian languages as an asset before any European language (english still OK...but!)...did I say enough?

gt all

Austin rb 14:42 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Is there a site for a good economic release calendar the sites I use did not have all UK data releases listed last night

HK [email protected] 14:41 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Tech. shows 1.3440/50, first for euro may have some correction may not correct.

Euro and USD are backed by printing machines, so better to concentrate on Tech.

Quebec Swap 14:41 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
limit taken on my EUR/USD long.

slv sam 14:39 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 11:52 GMT November 30, 2004
aud at 0.7735 is in a brgain value imo!GT

I hope my advice was useful to anybody!GT

Dallas Mauricio 14:39 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Cable is amazing today!

gold coast martin 14:32 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Auckland KK 14:26 GMT November 30, 2004
,..HARD CORE DOLLAR BEARS=FUNDS
..BEFORE END OF YEAR=FUNDS TAKE PROFITS....
..RESULT=DEATH OF CURRENT DOLLAR BEARS
..RESULT=good bye euro....
This is the first phase of the downtrend.....g/t

knoxville dan-k 14:32 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
KK, if u owned a business manufacturing firm and had to put up with U.S. tax, law, wages, vs. going overseas and putting up with virtually none of them where would u go, the U.S. is and has moved to a service economy not a manufacturing economy, unfortunatally a service economy does not work long

OK SZ 14:31 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
london sylhet 14:29 GMT November 30, 2004
do you think buy usd for long terms, please comments

That would be a BIG no..not yet..

london sylhet 14:29 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
do you think buy usd for long terms, please comments

Auckland KK 14:26 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin I'd love to see that happens but what could kill this hardcore dollar bear....?

van Gecko 14:21 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Atl TJ 14:06..G.day.. usd/cad holding firm while the euro bulls wants to try for the moon.. meanwhile, eur/cad is exhibiting northbound tendencies after flying south with the Goose for the last 6 months.. so should euro goes into a side, down, or dive correction, the Goose should fly..
gl..
gold coast martin..;) cheers

prague viktor 14:20 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Gecko..thanks a very nice song...but for how long they will sing this song.. there must a pull back maybe not now but from 1,34+++...G/T

gold coast martin 14:17 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
1334=13334..

gold coast martin 14:12 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 14:03 GMT November 30, 2004
The national anthem for the dollar bears will be the shortest in history....soon to be replaced with bull anthem of "..you aint seen nothing yet.....".and one of the verses says ''..heres something you will never forget...".....bears soon to turn to teddys.....after 1334 level is reached,,,,,,g/t

HK Kevin 14:10 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Good morning. Following the catching up of Cable, it's time to say goodbye to the Twins in Dec. Sold first positon of Cable at 1.9102.

Atl TJ 14:09 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I am seeing the first signs of exhaustion on this morning Cable move. Not going to short it as it may just move sideways for a while. Corrections include sideways action.

Atl TJ 14:06 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 13:14 GMT November 30, 2004
the Goose wants to break loose.. Usd/Cad is now a buy for long distance flyers..

Gecko, what am I missing here. I show that the goose has another 150 or so pips just to reach the upper channel line. 3 weeks ago I was thinking dollar correction and couldn't be more wrong. Why now? I am only questioning your statement so that I might learn something here. Not trying to be a jerk.

Brisbane PhD 14:03 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Initial stop(1.3223) on long EUR/USD moved to breakeven:1.3253.

van Gecko 14:03 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
G.day viktor.. how about those happy Dollar Bears now have a new Anthem to sing.. "American Bye"..
pls see fx Jim Mclean down at 08:50 GMT..:)

NJ RT 14:03 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Experts folks ...what is your view on EUR/GBP? Thank you.

Dallas Mauricio 14:02 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP.

Dallas GEP 13:21 GMT November 30, 2004
Dallas M, nice POSSIE on that GBP!!! See what I mean!!! LOL

slv sam 13:58 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
how about Nov. close at 1.34xx?GT

prague viktor 13:48 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko ..G.day mate! can u give me only 1 reason not to long the USD at this time I cant find....G/L G/T

NJ RT 13:44 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
London: what is you view on EUR/GBP ? Thank you.

Ldn 13:37 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko great. thanks

London 13:36 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Canada Sept GDP Flat From Aug; Mkt Expected +0.1%Can
2Q GDP Revised Dn To Annualized +3.9% From +4.3%
3Q GDP Annualized +3.2%; Mkt Expected +3.5%
Canada 3Q Exports Annualized -2.0% Vs +18.0% In 2Q

prague jv 13:36 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Here are updated levels for mid term position trading to watch

above long , belowe short revers levels are:
eur/ 0.7012
136.05
buy 1.3306
sell 1.3225
usd/ 103.18
gbp / 1.9015

van Gecko 13:31 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Ldn.. lets try the 1.2570's 1st.. looks like Parity for the great Canada geese will have to wait a bit longer now..

London. 13:31 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
US 3rd Qtr GDP Revised To Up 3.9% Rate From Up 3.7%


Dallas GEP 13:21 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas M, nice POSSIE on that GBP!!! See what I mean!!! LOL

Ldn 13:21 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko whats your target on the CAD cheers

FloridA VV 13:20 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Usd large stops are reported to be established @1.3220 - 1.32. Usd/Jpy 102.50 still holds, 103.50 will be printed today and 105. on friday.

LDN. 13:20 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
US Nov consumer confidence expecting a rebound 96.2 from Oct's 92.8, Surveys from the University of Michigan and ABC indicate that confidence rebounded in November following three consecutive declines 1500 GMT

Quebec Swap 13:17 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Still holding my long EUR/USD from yesterday. I probably should've dumped it on that run-up but it never hit my limit.

Tallinn viies 13:14 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
sold half of the euros at 1,3314. fwiw

van Gecko 13:14 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
the Goose wants to break loose.. Usd/Cad is now a buy for long distance flyers..

Dallas Mauricio 13:08 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Yea Right!

singapore kingpin 12:33 GMT November 30, 2004
GBP 1.9070 Euro 1.3298
Based on Fxts system, the european currencies are about to make a MAJOR slide very soon.

Antwerp Tom 13:07 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
OK Viies, it's real real now LOL

Antwerp Tom 12:59 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
OK Viies, got you

Tallinn viies 12:57 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom 12:54 GMT - you mean real real or real?

Hong Kong Qindex 12:54 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Use The following as reference for the time being :-

Hong Kong Qindex 03:30 GMT November 30, 2004
AUD/USD : Projected barriers from my current 10-day cycle are as follow :-


... // 0.7738 - 0.7746 - 0.7755 - 0.7778* - 0.7801 - 0.7811 - 0.7819 // ...

Gen dk 12:54 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Antwerp Tom 12:54 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Viies, interesting: "take out" is only 3 pips, for higher high and higher low, is that considered a real "take out"? GL GT

Tallinn viies 12:49 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
right now I cant see the reason to be bearish on eurusd. we just took out previous day high and low also higher than day before with such price behaviour euro erased potential top forming pattern imo
target still at 1,3360/65
and previous day low possible trigger for further selling

Hong Kong Qindex 12:39 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

singapore kingpin 12:33 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP 1.9070 Euro 1.3298
Based on Fxts system, the european currencies are about to make a MAJOR slide very soon.

Makassar Alimin 12:30 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
ok we have seen data from aus, japan, europe and uk, each with interesting results, so next is data from us...are we gonna see 1.3345 euro traded? i believe so!

Dallas GEP 12:28 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Eur/GBP depends on GBP longs really THis COULD be a really good long with 15 pip stop HERE

Hong Kong Qindex 12:27 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Philadelphia Caba 12:25 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP, your comment on eurgbp? I didn't take that long so far...

Dallas GEP 12:23 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
OK shorted more Euro @ 1.3296 (earlier short was small possie)` stop 1.3340

prague jv 12:23 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
usd lost key level on gbp , which on my system was 1.8945
on usd/jpy it is 102.69 and eur/usd it is 1.3306 . If usd lose these levels , it is another run for usd bears , where new reccords will hit headlines.

Philadelphia Caba 12:21 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 12:18 GMT November 30, 2004
Nice CABA.... that was a LONG term trade for me!!! LOL

For this pair it's usually..

dc fxq 12:20 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 12:14 GMT

King's comment sounds like double-talk. Whose gain would come from it aside from EU?

prague viktor 12:19 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
closing all my euro long at mkt...IMO the show is coming to the end maybe 100-250pips more but I feel good with this levels G/T

Dallas GEP 12:18 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Nice CABA.... that was a LONG term trade for me!!! LOL

Philadelphia Caba 12:17 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 12:15 GMT November 30, 2004
Eur/chf shorts BTW were closed at 1.5115 for +38

Good morning all! Closed at 1.5125.

Dallas GEP 12:15 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Eur/chf shorts BTW were closed at 1.5115 for +38

Tallinn viies 12:14 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
IFR - EUR/USD: BoE"s King Hopes USD Adjustment Is Not EUR"s Gain

is this something new?

Halifax CB 12:13 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
slv - that's ok - you can get your 1.34 as long as it turns and heads back to 1.28xx right after..But I do think the longer term is still in your direction...

slv sam 12:09 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 12:04 GMT /
1.28 level? not before 1.34xx imho.GT

Hong Kong Qindex 12:05 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 17:03 GMT November 27, 2004
GBP/AUD : Quantized Levels of 44-Day Cycle Reference (24/11)


A) : ... // 2.2022* - 2.2501 - 2.2980 - 2.3459 - {2.3938} - 2.4418 - 2.4897 - 2.5376 - 2.5855* // ...


B) : ... // 2.2661* - 2.2981 - 2.3300 - 2.3619 - {2.3938} - 2.4258 - 2.4577 - 2.4897 - 2.5216* // ...


C) : ... 2.2405 - 2.2789 - 2.3172 - 2.3555 - {2.3938}* - 2.4322 - 2.4705 - 2.5088 - 2.5471 // ...

Halifax CB 12:04 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
slv sam - have you looked at the eurusd dailies or weeklies? to me it looks like we are in for a bit of correction, perhaps down to the mid 1.28's or so. So I am shorting above 1.33, with stops 100 above. But I will admit that picking local tops is a dumb thing to do...

Dallas Mauricio 12:03 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
I need to call my divorce attorney.

Zurich Picasso 12:01 GMT November 30, 2004
I am your wife.


KL KL 12:03 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
whatever ...I am setting traps for gbpusd shorts at 1.9125 9145 9179 1.9209 sl 10 at each level...off to get some rest....one eye only...LOL. Could be blow off day today so be careful...very exciting this cable today! All waiting for it to snap!!!

Dallas Mauricio 12:02 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
I hope so, I'm long from 1.9044.

Dallas GEP 11:59 GMT November 30, 2004
Well GBP now with 9060 breAK could see 1.91,,,,

Hong Kong Qindex 12:01 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Zurich Picasso 12:01 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
I am your wife.

Dallas GEP 11:59 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Well GBP now with 9060 breAK could see 1.91,,,,still think EURO will be contained below 3320/30 area tho

Dallas Mauricio 11:58 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
You're just like my wife.
Zurich Picasso 11:58 GMT November 30, 2004
Sceptical.
Healthy.


ECB Trichet 11:58 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Tout cela est trop brutal...!!

Zurich Picasso 11:58 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Sceptical.
Healthy.

Dallas Mauricio 11:56 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Zurich Picasso = Unhappy Person.

slv sam 11:55 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 09:14 GMT November 29, 2004
no matter how strong this $ correction will take us....a new low will be registered soon..imho..so buy euro every 30-50 pips down for sure profits ..aimho!GT

New e/$ low most likely today.GT

Hong Kong Qindex 11:54 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

slv sam 11:52 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
aud at 0.7735 is in a brgain value imo!GT

Gen dk 11:49 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Zurich Picasso 11:48 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Tight SL = gamble.

melbourne farmacia 11:47 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Next Cable squeeze point 1.9098


KL KL 11:47 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
at the rate gbpusd is taking me out looks like heading for all time 1.91xx...so I better wait now. There are many style to trading...live by one die by one...live by many and you will be long in this game + tight sl

SanFrancisco TG 11:42 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Not everyone is in a position to "position trade". Most are left to trade intra-day ..... this includes professionals running a billion and a half per day.

Recent conditions in foreign exchange (last 4 years) fluctuate between smooth average price predictability on an hourly chart, or sudden spike/dip that only a 15 minute chart could pick up. When does the condition change ? .... not predictable.

KL chooses to come in swinging, I like the attitude.

My better rates of success have come with 30 minute time frames and I pay no attention to anything over or under. At times the time frame will run and hold the bias and I see it as a benefit not the rule.

Budapest Daniel 11:40 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
I think he's just joking. :)

Hamburg Spottrade 11:38 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
L.A. Igrok
You are verry optimistik !!

Dallas GEP 11:36 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
6960/5 is strong support also for e/p and we are getting bounce from that now. GBP should short back below 1.9000

L.A. Igrok 11:35 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Seems like 1.1830-40 for the USD/CHF and 1.2840-50 for the EUR/USD might be reached today or tomorrow.

KL KL 11:33 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
BW, I have been a positional trader some years ago and I think currency trading have been volitile and not preditable recently. I choose this method now not because I have abandon the positional trade but due to the FACT that the markets has been volitile all year. I can be up 100 pips in positional trade and lose it all the next few days or just 20-30 pips for the effort....not to mentioned the sleepness night of should have could have....Now I go to sleep every day knowing I made the pips at least 3 pips is still good. As long as +ve I am happy. I have also used trailling stops, you name it...but the could have..should have is still there.....Now I just take the pips and run!!!gl gt

btw short gbpusd 1.9826...sl 15 above...going to get some food and rest. The price action suggest a tired gbp bull IMHO. I think this spike has run its course and need to retrace a bit .....I have set limit buy at 1.8894

HK 11:33 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD fell across the board today. What next. Feel like to sell EUR/AUD on any rallies.

london sylhet 11:31 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
i am short gbpusd 19015 any body can advice, bit confused

Dallas GEP 11:30 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Hmmm,,,Well eur/gbp with GBP going this long has broken support ... no doubt about that

BW bw 11:30 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
CBI Nov Trades Survey +19, Much Better-Than-Expected

Bexhill pasjones 11:27 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Mauricio, the point that Zurich Picaso is making is that KL does NOT need to post every single trade. A comment like "today is a good day to for quick intraday trades" would provide a better insight.

Bkk bounbough 11:24 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Gep: Are you looking for longs between 1.3180-1.3200?

Dallas Mauricio 11:20 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Was the GBP CBI #good, bad or neutral? TIA

Dallas Mauricio 11:17 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Zurich Picasso 11:15 GMT November 30, 2004
A good scalper is not a gambler. Live & let live.




Baden W BW 11:17 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
KL - keep going & keep posting - its great - energy like that is inspirational

Ldn 11:16 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
OECD Cotis said there is a small risk that a substantial appreciation of the euro could push the euro zone into recession. "Having a very strong, exaggerated appreciation of the euro would be a downside risk...and would be problematic for continental Europe," he said.

Zurich Picasso 11:15 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Mauricio 11:10 GMT November 30, 2004

We would rather celebrate sucessfull analysis and insight, not the
gambles.

Zurich Picasso 11:12 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
I am short in AUD/JPY from 81.40 since 2 weeks.

Dallas Mauricio 11:12 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
TIA

Zurich Picasso 11:11 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 11:06 GMT November 30, 2004

Ok could you please cut the spam with your 8 pip gambles?
Trust me it's not interesting at all.

Dallas Mauricio 11:11 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
What was the GBP #?

KL KL 11:11 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Zurich Picasso...ya at times I do cos my style a bit crazy to you...like the painter. You must understand I am a short term player and today I WILL SURVIVE! btw What are your possie may I ask? R U a short midium or long term or just a BB??

Dallas Mauricio 11:10 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Don't be a D**kh**d Bexhill PAS. The forum is also to celebrate success.

Bexhill PAS 11:09 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Correction, it's the KLMMTC - KL Mutual Masterbaters Traders Club

Bexhill PAS 11:07 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Its not the GVI forum anymore, it's the KL Self Appreciation Society

KL KL 11:06 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
short again at gbpusd 1.9038 out 30 +8

again short at 1.9033 sl 12 locking in 3 pip gain out 1.9018 +15...flat now to reshort a bit higher

Zurich Picasso 11:03 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 11:00 GMT November 30, 2004

Don't you ever feel like a laugh of the forum?

prague jv 11:01 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
was expecting eur/gbp go the other way . Belowe 0.6980 is sign of changeing direction for mid term view.

KL KL 11:00 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
short again at 1.9036 out 30 +6

KL KL 10:57 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
rats again patience...patience

Manchester Daniel 10:55 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/041130/325/f7kje.html

House Prices Rise in November (UK) - Perhaps this is reason for cable rise today - the possibility of further interest rate rise IF housing market picks up again.

KL KL 10:55 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
in short 1.9023 gbpusd sl 7above

Rivonia PipPirate 10:55 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate 09:10 GMT November 29, 2004
Y/d the charts did whisper to me:
E/G S& R:
..6973...6996<>7024...7043..
& 4 today:
...6968...6971/2.....7020...7040..
Tricky bugger

Dallas Mauricio 10:48 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Do I sense a Bear Trap?

PAR 10:46 GMT November 30, 2004
Again looks like UK CBI retail sales (nov) will be much stronger than expected. Strange that GBP usually moves before the figures ?

PAR 10:46 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Again looks like UK CBI retail sales (nov) will be much stronger than expected. Strange that GBP usually moves before the figures ?

Makassar Alimin 10:43 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP, any plan to play the long side of eur/gbp here?

Dallas Mauricio 10:43 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
I have made 2x my daily goal already on that cable run. Thinking about going back to bed.

KL KL 10:38 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
out 1.9 +10 reshort higher

KL KL 10:36 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
ok short again 1.9010...sl 9 above...my last short

Gen dk 10:36 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

KL KL 10:35 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Today I am taught a nice lesson ...ok back to ninja mode take every pip prisoners!!!

Tallinn viies 10:28 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!
still keeping long euros from 1,3248.
target 1,3350 at the mom.
worry level under 1,3180
fwiw
good luck

Dallas Mauricio 10:28 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
What just happened on cable? I am happy, but puzzled.

KL KL 10:27 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8996..sl 12 above

sydney gvm 10:25 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Bunds recovering may be an interesting indicator as to EUD direction IMHO

Dallas Mauricio 10:15 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
romania cristi, This is the best link I have found for the economic calendar: http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/FXCalendar.html

Makassar Alimin 10:15 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
wonder if euro's 1.3180/1.3200 has become the base for the rest of this year, very limited dollar recovery indeed

GER ad 10:13 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
US Data today:
13.30 Preliminary Q3 GDP
15.00 November Chicago PMI
15.00 November Consumer confidence

Hong Kong Qindex 10:13 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


romania cristi 10:12 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
thanks.mauricio!

Dallas Mauricio 10:09 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
13.30 and 15 gmt

KL KL 10:09 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd short BE...rats should have taken the 15 on offer earlier...sheeeze

romania cristi 10:08 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
what time there will be the american data?12.30 and 14 gmt,or 13.30 and 15 gmt?thank you!

Ldn 10:05 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
OECD syas US interest rates are very low, and further Fed hikes are "warranted," while in the UK the repo rate is "nearing neutrality." ECB and BoJ "still have reasons to wait and see,"
and China to ease off administrative controls and rely more on higher deposit interest rates AP

KL KL 09:48 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Well my gbpusd short is still alive...like a miracle was the high 1.8952....should have taken me...but maybe it was so quick that the broker forgot...I am happy and not complaining

Brisbane 09:47 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
EU spells out trade threat from China
One of the most vulnerable targets is the German car industry, which is already in dire straits

Dallas GEP 09:38 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Longed EUR/GBP @ 6997

Gen dk 09:34 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Ldn 09:28 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
THE HAGUE (AP)--Chances for peace in the Middle East appeared promising, the European Union said Monday during talks with Israel and its Arab neighbors, citing a conciliatory attitude by Israelis and Palestinians after the death of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. "There is a chance for a fresh beginning. There was a completely different atmosphere," Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the E.U. foreign affairs commissioner, said of a Monday night dinner of foreign ministers from the 25 E.U. nations, Israel and eight of its neighbors.
Dollar positive again.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:26 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:26 GMT November 30, 2004
EUR/AUD : The key quantized level of my 44-day cycle reference (24/11) is located at 1.6932. The market is now trying to tackle the upper trading ranges of 1.7125 - 1.7298 (1.7125 - 1.7176 - 1.7127 - 1.7225 - 1.7257 - 1.7298).

honolulu Byron 09:26 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
wanna use 20 pips to test trend line support on USDCHF...
Long @ 1.1400, s/l 1.1375.
25pips bet with chart:
http://fxtradercenter.com/ftopict-78.html

Helsinki iw 09:25 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the link, Jim. Really funny.

Bruxville Jim 09:24 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP, nice poetry;)
I can imagine Madonna singing these lines :D

Hong Kong Qindex 09:18 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP/AUD : The key quantixed level of my 44-day cycle reference (24/11) is positioning at 2.3938 and the market is heading towards 2.4577 - 2.4897.

Dallas GEP 09:16 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
OK back to life some!!!

Dallas GEP 09:14 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Very clever Jim!!!


And the BOJ made them quiver,
When usd/jpy buys were delivered.
The ECB was just one more step
When dollar buys were at the 3330 doorstep

Just one more time it should reverse```....
Said the specs as if rehearsed...
And then the specs lost all their pride
When they bought USD and didn't stand aside

That was the day, the technicals died.

KL KL 09:14 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
short again gbpusd 1.8945.. sl 7 above

Hong Kong Qindex 09:14 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD/JPY : As shown in my 44-day cycle reference (24/11), if the market can penetrate through 79.38, the next targeting level is 78.59 - 78.74.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:09 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD/CAD : The market is negative as it is moving away from the key quantized level, 0.9213,of my 44-day reference (24/11).

Dallas Mauricio 09:09 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Cable went BOOM!

Dallas Mauricio 09:03 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Good Day boys & girls. GL/GT.

Dallas GEP 08:51 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
YEP CDB.....Proce action currently is mIXED which results in trading based on levels sometimes and not on technicals HOWEVER market now is DEAD!!!!

Bruxville Jim 08:50 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Anthem of Dollar Bears;)

"American Bye"

A long, long time ago…
I can still remember
How the dollar used to make me smile.
And I knew if I had my chance
I’d sell the currency of France
And, maybe, I’d be happy for awhile.

[..]

I started singin’
Bye-bye, dollar assets good-bye
Sold my Chevy at the levee
‘cause my pension ran dry.
Them good old boys were drinkin’ sake to try
Singin’ this’ll be the day that it died
This’ll be the day that it died.

FULL VERSION:
http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=37375

KL KL 08:47 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
short audusd .7725 gbpusd 1.8920 both sl 7

JHB CDB 08:46 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Gep again, my MACD is at the bottom and my Bollingar line?

Is it another res line ?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:45 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Tight range for the eur/usd as the pair consolidates and unwinds the intraday indicators a bit. For now the support and resistance has held this pair in check for the early part of this week but traders are probably waiting for more news this week to light the fire again. As long as the key support and retracement numbers are intact the bulls are still in charge for another run at the main target of 3500-30 area. I still have buy on dips mode until the price action shows me otherwise.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3300-10, 3340-50 and 3400-10. Main objective is still around the 3500-30 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3235-45, 3180-90, 3130-40, 3080-90 and 3030-3040.
Retracement numbers are 3215-25, 3140-50, 3085-95, 3030-40 and 2960-70.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3165-75, 3070-80, 2990-3000, 2910-2920, and 2810-20 for now key retracement number is 3080-90.
Support T/L is around 3180-3190 and 3020-30.
Support is around the 3220-30, 3180-90, 3140-50, 3100-10, 3050-70 and 3020-30 for now key support is around the 3050-70 area IMHO. GL GT

Dallas GEP 08:42 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
CDB, Actually shorts on AUSSIE from 7730 area appear bMORE favorabe presently

Hong Kong Qindex 08:41 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 08:27 GMT November 30, 2004
AUD/USD : My current 44-day cycle charts indicate that a projected supporting level is expected at ........................A projected resistant barrier is located at 0.7724 - 0.7739 (0.7724 - 0.7725 - 0.7730 - 0.7739).

Hong Kong Qindex 08:37 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 08:26 GMT - AUD/USD : The market has passed through the key quantized level of my 44-day cycle reference (27/11) at 0.7751. Strong speculative selling pressure is expected.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:34 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 08:26 GMT - I can project a new 10-day cycle after every closing of each New York session. The market is now trying to head for the key quantized level of my current 10-day cycle which was generated this morning.

KL KL 08:31 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd at 1.8912 +11 reshort higher...need to get into the rythmn!!

Hong Kong Qindex 08:30 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 08:26 GMT - I am providing the levels from my current 10-day and 44-day cycle analyses. They are very good and it is worth your time to take a look.

JHB CDB 08:29 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
I see

What do you think about a potential Long on the AUD/USD within a couple of minutes?

Hong Kong Qindex 08:28 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Surabaya Medallion 08:27 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
So will AUD goes to 0.7660 or 0.7780 first from 0.7715?

Ldn 08:26 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Qindex is this the level you are speaking of thanks
Hong Kong Qindex 00:43 GMT November 30, 2004
AUD/USD : It is still valid :-


Hong Kong Qindex 01:30 GMT November 29, 2004
AUD/USD : It is negative when the market is moving away from the key quantized level of my 10-day cycle. It is now heading towards the key quantized level of my 44-day cycle. The key quantized level of my monthly cycle is located at 0.7455 which is going to be the distant target for this week.

Makassar Alimin 08:23 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
i dont think dollar can recover much, euro is still well within 1.32 handle, only a direct break below 1.3080 could make me rethink, first small try euro long is still located somewhere between 1.3180-1.3200 stop loss tight and if hit, the next entry would be near 1.3080, thank you

KL KL 08:21 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.8923 sl 7 above

Dallas GEP 08:21 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
CDB, I shorted on potential break of 1.3230 level that didn't happen, possie is light so I will hold it. Very short term loooks like we see 1.3265/70

Chicago Goofy 08:21 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
whats happened to Chf mins ago..Any thought on the spike?

JHB CDB 08:18 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP, I don't understand the SHORT EUR/USD you just entered?

My MACD is not high enough, and the bollinghar is at the bottom?

KL KL 08:16 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
out long audusd .7729 +22

Dallas GEP 08:14 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Hi CDB!!!

Hong Kong Qindex 08:10 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : The market is heading towards the key quantized level of my current 10-day cycle. It may take 1 - 2 days but the chance is high and it is not an illusion.

Moscow Hawk 08:10 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Hi, Ldn. Aussie is now testing 0.7690-10 zone my next target after 0.78 was passed. Depending on selling momentum and dollar action on majors we can see it in the lows of 76 later today. Good trades.

JHB CDB 08:10 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Good day GEP

Hong Kong Qindex 08:08 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

KL KL 08:01 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
long audusd .7707 sl 7 below for short term up and I think oversold too fast too soon. Data not as bad as europe or US...still maybe RBA using magic to push it down

saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088 08:00 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..

EU ZORRO 13:42 GMT November 25, 2004
saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088...Hi friend....!!!!
.........................................................
To be honest i think so, but im looking not to be as the past Andy

nk

Dallas GEP 07:57 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Shorted euro 1.3241

Ldn 07:55 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Hawk hi hawk have you got a level on the aud thanks

Moscow Hawk 07:53 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
It took one more day longer for the aussie to sink below 0.78. Finally the USD has the fresh breath. Hopefully the EUR/USD and USD/JPY will follow and reach the targets indicated on Friday.

Good luck

Ldn 07:52 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
French consumer sentiment idex slides more than expected in November to -23 as consumers become increasingly more concerned with economic stagnation and job losses forecast consumer sentiment would fall to -20. Economists fear that France's economic recovery this year could run out of steam as confidence dips, which could hurt spending
reuters

Ltn th 07:52 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Bris L// Seems more like positioning play for serious longs to either 83 or at outside 86. `If you can load up sub 77 consider yourself very lucky.

Brisbane L 07:45 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
anyone have a realistic level to aim for on the aud please

NY Farhat 07:44 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Usd

Brisbane L 07:43 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Seems the Aud is being branded with the USD the Deficit being actually worse . If China happened to show signs of slowing we could meet Gold Coast Martins no doubt quite soon

NY Tehran 07:42 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
I have long position at 1.3265

still on it ? or exit ?

Brisbane L 07:41 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD is showing signs of the real fundamental picture coming back into play. The weight of the current account and trade deficits really is unbearable as it has proved to be the case for the US dollar.
FxMax

Ldn 07:34 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Aussie under pressure talk of Model funds some rushing to exit longs.

Helsinki iw 07:26 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
fwiw/ EUR/USD looks ripe to me (as for many others here) for a better correction. Meduim term model funds have turning levels below 1.3100 today, with that level rising each day.
Noting AUD and CAD already on the move.

NY Farhat 07:22 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   

What about Euro / Usd ?




Sydney 07:21 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
tk jf 07 hmmm very interestng.

tk jf 07:18 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
syd - i dont know if it applies or not because i dont have any of my money in china but a client told me their family in china earn 2 % on their funds in the bank and pay 1 % tax- so they transferred the funds to canada and leave it there and dont declare anything- fwiw

tk jf 07:07 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
syd - probably no impact in china just the offshore community trying to make a dollar betting on markets that have a correlation - in a booming mkt of 7-13 % growth i dont think interest rates are much of a factor to be honest

Ldn 07:00 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Model funds selling aud eyeing 20-day MA

Syd 06:57 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
tk jf If china hike rate again, wonder what affect it will have since its been a decade nearly since they did it . I would imagine a shock to the public.with greater hikes

Sydney 06:53 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
tk jf I trade for myself

Sydney EM 06:52 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
The Australian dollar fell sharply Tuesday as the market reacted to a second straight day of data pointing to slowing economic growth. The darkening cloud forming over the economy's outlook allowed bond prices to rally, taking the price of three-year-bond futures to a 14-month high of 95.06. At the close of trading, the entire Australian yield curve was submerged below the Reserve Bank's 5.25% official cash rate, while the U.S./Australia 10-year bond spread had fallen below 90 basis points. Third-quarter gross domestic product data due at 0030 GMT Wednesday are shaping up as critical for the market with economists predicting the numbers will confirm a sharp slowdown in growth. With some economists not ruling out a contraction in GDP, the interest rate debate may soon switch to the prospect of an easing rather than the timing of another hike.
AP

tk jf 06:52 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
syd - u trade for yourself or work for someone down there?

Sydney 06:37 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Record deficit to hit dollar, growth
By Matt Wade
Clifford Bennett, a currency analyst, said: "The Australian dollar is set up to have perhaps its fastest fall in history, and that is saying something."

posted earlier but quite suprising

Syd 06:28 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Australia's widening current account deficit could hit the country's AA+ foreign currency rating if the trend becomes entrenched and is accompanied by economic instability and a sharp rise in foreign debt, said Fitch Ratings Tuesday.

nyc sa 06:21 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Koizumi visits shrine to pay respect to the dead !the dead dollar ??? lol .

Sydney 06:15 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD maybe at a medium term impasse, with the possibility of a large corrective downturn about to unfold. The AUD/USD made a high of 0.8005 in February this year, after sustaining a rally from 0.4775 all time lows in April of 2001. The AUD slid back from the 0.8005 level, eventually trading back down to 0.6775 in June this year. That pullback was exactly 38.2% of the entire rally. This pullback was either a complete correction, or the first leg of a larger correction. Considering the up move was almost three years in duration
{April 01-Feb 2004) and over 3,200 points in size, the down move of 1225 points only four months long, the structure of the pullback appears incomplete in both duration and depth. The ensuing rally from 0.6775 on June 14th to 0.7945 on
November 26th[last Friday] has looked impulsive in nature and has caused many to believe that AUD/USD has resumed the uptrend and is destined to move to new highs this year, but significantly the AUD/USD has not made a new high. Recent
USD weakness has seen NZD, EUR ,CHF and CAD all make historic highs, but not AUD. It has been unable to make a new high for the year above 0.8005 over recent months, in an environment of sustained USD weakness. We suspect strongly that the AUD/USD has not resumed the uptrend, and the recent rally since June from 0.6775-0.7945 is the second leg of a larger correction. The price action over the last two days from 0.7945 is very similar to that in Feb when AUD traded at
0.8005. AUD/USD closed the month in Feb at 0.7737, the highest monthly close over the last three years. Today being the last trading day of November the close this evening may be significant if prices close below 0.7737 and the 20
day moving average at 0.7738. Remember last time prices were at 0.8005, the rejection was swift resulting a decline back to 0.6775. Prices are acting in a similar vein again from 0.7945. The weak housing and retail sales data out today
has put a dampener on further rate hikes early next year, as many market analysts were predicting. Important levels on the downside are the former triple top at 0.7690, a close below this level on a daily basis would support the idea
a reversal of proportion is underway, under there congestion support at 0.7540-0.7640 should stall the decline, and a close below the break up level at 0.7500 will also be significant. The eventual target for this move [should it unfold] may be below 0.6775, with retracement levels of the entire move of 0.4775-0.8005 at 0.6387[50%] and 0.6008 [61.8%]. A move back above 0.7830 now would place this bearish scenario in jeopardy, any close above 0.7900 would abort the bearish outlook. IFR outlook

sydney gvm 05:59 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Kar sgs - panel to the right under Marketplace then FX Charts

Kar sgs 05:33 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
where I can excess FXtrek

Syd.. 05:26 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
fxtrek (free charts) working ?

Makassar Alimin 05:23 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
i think if bad us data appear later today, euro has a good chance to go to 1.3345

Hong Kong Qindex 04:59 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 04:59 GMT November 30, 2004
USD/JPY : The current expected trading range from my 10-day cycle is 102.31 - 103.35 and the mid-point reference is 102.83.


... // {102.31}* - 102.57 - 102.83 - 103.09 - 103.35* // ...

Tokyo IM 04:41 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
tk jf// OK

tk jf 04:39 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
tokyo im - email you later

Brisbane L 04:19 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
BOJ say they will ease policy next year, because of the poor economy outlook

Hong Kong Qindex 03:31 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:30 GMT November 30, 2004
AUD/USD : Projected barriers from my current 10-day cycle are as follow :-


... // 0.7738 - 0.7746 - 0.7755 - 0.7778* - 0.7801 - 0.7811 - 0.7819 // ...

See details in my page if the market is trading below 0.7738.
Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to it.

gold coast martin 03:25 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
LDN.....while we need more bounce in the RSI to create more momentum,the current consolidation of the dollar at 13250 may indicate that market is ready again to take into account market data....g/t

gold coast martin 03:15 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   


Van jv 03:01 GMT November 30, 2004
May be my choice of words was poor...i simply meant that a future correlation for aud/usd at 78 points to a 13342 eur/usd ......just my systems technical projection...i am sure the euro has a hard road ahead..for various reasons....g/t

Ldn 03:08 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin . RSI looks like we need a bit of bounce is that your view

Van jv 03:01 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 02:30 --Thanks
Possibly euro does not ""needs to trade at 13342""---we may have reasons not to----GL

Bandung Asti 02:55 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
intraday resistance for eur/$ 1.3265 , gbp/$ 1.8910 and support $/chf at 1.1426...GL/GT !

tk jf 02:42 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
u are going to have to allow for eur to rise back to 70 m euryen at 137.20 not sure exact gbp hi but those shud be two small moves in the others
im - not yet will do tho

LA Fxnew 02:40 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
thank u for ur advices guys ... appreciate it...

Bribane L 02:39 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GC and Brisbane

ncow hk 02:36 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
LA Fxnew 02:24 GMT November 30, 2004
if it reachs 1.8895,I think it a good short for TOKYO trading

nyc sa 02:33 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
cable will be moving in the1.87-1.89 range before seeing 90 again, buy low sell higher .

gold coast martin 02:30 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Good afternoon.....Aud resistance level at 7733.....daily correlation between euro/usd pair and aud/usd suggeststhat for aud to see 78 level again euro needs to trade at 13342...In the meantime aussie will remain rangebound between 7745-7778 until tonites US data......g/t

Bris th 02:29 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Greetings all... oz should find decent support around here .7750 imho..

LA Fxnew 02:24 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
any idea of cable direction right now pls
for short term '
thank you much !

Bribane L 02:10 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Any view on support for now ??

Bribane L 02:09 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Aud a little oversold here could get a quick bounce

London 01:56 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD continues slide, down almost 1 U.S. cent on day after surprisingly soft October retail, building data; bond rally has compressed spread between 10-year bond and U.S. Treasurys to 88 bps from 99 bps late yesterday, further eroding AUD's yield support

Halifax CB 01:56 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
First, I want to thank the people that put up the info re. the Australian debt; that caught me by surprise, and turned me a tidy profit. Thanks!
Next - Personally, I'm looking for things to calm down a bit, and then looking for more points to short the USD, particularly against CAD. Eurusd is showing real signs of topping (with a big increase in variance), and it's getting pushed by the disruption from the Ukraine and general economic weakness (re. the expansion to the east, & high unemployment rates) so may that rosy bubble is ready to burst. And maybe not.(Hope not, I''ve got 1 long in on that still. Ouch). But w/r to CAD, I can't see anything changed, other than profit taking. As for USDJPY, as long as it's moving down at a leisurely pace, I think it's still a good longer term short....GL/GT

van Gecko 01:52 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Sydney.. yep.. great time for BOJ sans & their Men in Black croonies to come in here to give the market a nudge..

Syd 01:50 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Speculators still unwinding USD shorts before U.S. data like tonight's Chicago PMI, says Singapore dealer; this pushing USD/JPY toward 103.45 (Friday's high), EUR/USD below initial support at 1.3250 toward yesterday's low of 1.3229. Tips more of same rest of day as market still very short
reuters.

Sydney 01:48 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 01:45 I think they are , we seem ripe for a correction and fx what with Korea China Japan lined up to take on the specs along with anyone else in their army. 'The Art of War at its best'

Hong Kong Qindex 01:46 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : The key quantized level of my 44-day cycle reference is 0.7751.

van Gecko 01:45 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Sydney.. they must be watching the 450 level like a hawk.. taking out the level 1 stops below 449 could be the trigger for a Gold medal size dive..

Hong Kong Qindex 01:42 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:41 GMT November 29, 2004
AUD/USD : Speculative selling will increase when the market can penetrate through the key quantized level of my 44-day cycle reference. See details in my page. Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Atl TJ 01:40 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Dollar Crisis mentality is in the air! Since I first thought about a dollar correction 3 weeks ago and was rapidly proved wrong I am not so sure I am willing to go there again now. I am thinking that there still needs need be some sort of blowoff first. We have had these wimpy retraces before I think this will be just another.

But since I rarely hold a trade more than 12 hours this is just another opportunity to score some pips.

KL KL 01:39 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
not good. short gbpusd taken..waiting for entry again...need to think ...at least system sl working

Bribane L 01:39 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
AUDUSD
AUD/USD has been dropping all day after the worse then expected Current Account Deficit number. Expect last weeks low of 0.770, to hold as good support in Asia trading. Key swing level support is at 0.7750 which AUD/USD need to stay above, otherwise we might be in a deeper correction
sexo

prague jv 01:39 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp do expecting higher from here , as flow into gbp from cupons will be done by now .

Rio 01:37 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Quindex,

thanks I will do it.

melbourne farmacia 01:35 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Rio - 0.7752 & 0.7660ish

Bribane L 01:35 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Euro looks headed towards 1.32 and below -Qindex do you see this as good correction in the making for USD later in Europe and NY without getting too excited- looks like the Chrissy trades are being pocketed

Tokyo IM 01:34 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Goodmorning all.
tk jf, did you contact me by e-mail?

Sydney 01:31 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Entire Australian yield curve all the way out to Feb 2017 bonds now trading below RBA's 5.25% cash rate as market bets interest rates headed lower. 3-year bond futures at highest level since August 2003 reuters

Hong Kong Qindex 01:31 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Rio 01:15 GMT - It is worth to take a look at my page. The first 2 weeks are free and there is no oligation.

Ldn 01:27 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD: Breaking Below 0.7775 Support On Heavy Selling

KL KL 01:26 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
long gbpusd 1.8885

Hong Kong Qindex 01:26 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

wellington am 01:25 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Ozzy coming off hard but kiwi still rising - despite yen weakness. Looks like money's flowing out of oz into kiwi - given the relative weakness of the nz economy, suggest next short to watch may be the kiwi.

Sydney 01:22 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Van Gecko , this bloke agrees with you also

Speculators behind gold push, fundamentals don't warrant rally. Gold's "heavily overextended so I think we're in for some serious consolidation if not a correction soon," says 'The Grandich Letter's' Peter Grandich

Hong Kong Qindex 01:22 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Rio 01:15 GMT - I post the levels of current 10-day and 44-day cycle in my page. It is a very useful reference if you are a day trader, position trader or even a fund manager.

van Gecko 01:19 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Gold has a tendency to fall suddenly & viciously from great heights.. liquidity had taken a nose dive in the recent days after climbing $85 in 6 months & 35 bucks in 4 weeks up to the recent multi-year high.. a near term liquidation correction down to the $430's is now in the cards.. (who wants to be the last big sucker to buy Gold up here at $455 and watch it dive 30 big bucks shortly after?)
needless to say, the Majors which had followed Gold like Pavlov's dogs up to the recent heights will follow it back down..
a break below $430/420 could trigger a major panic liquidation which would tilt the odds for a multi-month correction for the Dollar, and support the theory that the Dollar/Gold is at/near a m/t inflection point..


Syd 01:18 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
A close below 0.7775 creates an interim top at 0.7945 from Nov 26th and opens the possibility of a much larger medium term correction is unfolding that would target sub 0.7000
before completion ifr

Rio 01:15 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Thanks, Melbourne,

Can I ask your target?

Bribane L 01:14 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
RBA likely still comfortable with slide in Australian economic activity in recent months, but it may get nervous if trend continues encouraging a rate cut

melbourne farmacia 01:13 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Rio - might see short term bounce 0.7750/40

Syd 01:08 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
prague jv agree

Syd 01:07 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Australia's Costello: World Economy Facing Difficulties


in time of high a Vix the aud is a loser

Hong Kong Qindex 01:07 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

prague jv 01:06 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
SYD , I think he knows what is he doing .

Mtl JP 01:04 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Link to Bill's Outlook piece

Mtl JP 01:02 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Ldn / fwiw, Pimco's Gross: Too Much!
(The weak dollar – causes and consequences)


..."There is a whiff of crisis in the air"...


Syd 01:00 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
prague jv something even more scary P.M. Howard wont join!!!
One last chance for Howard to join trade bloc

Rio 00:56 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Many Thanks friends. I am already short but I was needing more imput before to take further positions.

prague jv 00:56 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
SYD , not as scary as this one LOL

http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/11/29/laos.asean/index.html

Brisbane L 00:53 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
It looks like the aud may be the first off the tracks for a correction, economy looks like slowing quite rapidly precurser to everywhere else in this area

Sydney 00:50 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Australian October retail sales data "very weak," with annual pace of retail sales growth now 3.5% from 9% earlier this year; soft building data, slowing credit growth confirms RBA rates on hold at 5.25% for foreseeable future, economy on cusp censored,

KL KL 00:46 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Top of the hour...#&%^*&%# bad 24 hours...broadband down, broker crappy response time, charts wobbly...so no trade lately

Short audusd .7812 earlier...hate to shot this slow doggie..but due to poor economic data lately...the best trade so far. Housing just released..ok out 7788 +24...is ok use to take me 2 days to get 20 pips on this currency...so I am not waiting around...will reshort other currency later..the theme is Short!!

Syd 00:45 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
prague jv scary stuff

Hong Kong Qindex 00:43 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : It is still valid :-


Hong Kong Qindex 01:30 GMT November 29, 2004
AUD/USD : It is negative when the market is moving away from the key quantized level of my 10-day cycle. It is now heading towards the key quantized level of my 44-day cycle. The key quantized level of my monthly cycle is located at 0.7455 which is going to be the distant target for this week.

Sydney 00:43 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Aussie could fall quite sharply we get a burst of strength in the USD think we need expertise Gecko and Igrok Athens and BC for that just hearing CNBC Ben Pedley analyst from Singapore saying Bond market are pricing in a cut in rates.

prague jv 00:43 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   

A record $16.6 billion of Australian-dollar bonds were issued last financial year by foreign companies into the local market, highlighting the risk to Australia's external accounts if issuers decide to look elsewhere for funding.


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,11537648%5E643,00.html

Rio 00:38 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
To the friends with more expertise in AUD, which cpould be the target for this week short?, if any...

prague jv 00:36 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,11538410%5E462,00.html

Syd 00:35 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Australian Oct Retail Sales Fall 0.7%
Australian Housing-Sector Lowest Yr Rate Since Dec 2001

Gen dk 00:35 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

tk jf 00:21 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
jv yes thats my point 2 - yen and aud seem clearer picture but eur and chf it is not yet decided - mkt seems cautious with those 2

knoxville dan-k 00:20 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
well out +50 usd/jpy long,
and out + 35 eur/usd

prague jv 00:17 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
jf , I do see chf in similar situation as jpy . If we go short chf , we will join despered crowd , if go long , we will hit SNB wall .

My position on usd/jpy is long , but do not expect from it much

Dallas GEP 00:15 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
When eur/jpy hits 137.00 I will THEN short eur/usd again

Dallas GEP 00:14 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Cloased eur shorts at BE EUR/JPY longs holding eur/usd up

FloridA vv 00:14 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Large stops are reported to be established for Eur/Usd longs @ 1.3220 - 1.32

Sydney 00:05 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
Speculators behind gold push, fundamentals don't warrant rally. Gold's "heavily overextended so I think we're in for some serious consolidation if not a correction soon," says 'The Grandich Letter's' Peter Grandich.

knoxville dan-k 00:03 GMT November 30, 2004 Reply   
does anyone here play the ccy's using the parabolic sar?
stop and reverse indicators ? and if so how r u doing with it?

 




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