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Forex Forum Archive for 12/03/2004

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quito_ecuador_valdez 23:46 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
london cam// I may have misunderstood you..you said retrace..I call a retrace of 250-500 pips right about now..likely on the 350-450 side. If you're talking "retrace" in the form of the 'BIG' retrace say of 1000-1500 pips, then yes, we do agree..Q1 next year 4 sure (late-ish Q1). I'd be interested to see more posts from you...thanks for your insights.

quito_ecuador_valdez 23:38 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
london cam 23:16 GMT December 3, 2004 >
"note that longer term players are still shorting the USD". The hardcore trend followers will probably continue selling hence further weakening to come in the near future. I wouldn't be surprised if this trend continues into Q1 05. US multinationals will benefit from a weaker USD when repatriating overseas earnings. Additionally, this should help boost US stocks into next year. IMHO I see little chance of any significant retracement for at least 3 to 4 weeks."

If I didn't know better I'd say I wrote this. Well, I did actually..a number of times here in the recent past (last 2 months). Glad someone else sees the big picture. We seem to disagree however on "significant retracement" time however..you give it til Q1 05 but my model pegs it to happen just about now actually judging from the similarity of the present peak to past peaks ON the 3 YEAR CHART (fxtrek.com), especially the peak formation from 11/7/03 to 4/30/04. A double peak will likely form out of this..first to retrace 250-500 pips, (any time now in fact and bigger than today's move) then to gain it back, loose it, gain it etc. for 2-4 cycles (just like today's big 200), then to finally form another peak (2nd of double), then to trend down for:
1. either 2 months to start up again..but I feel this is an unlikely scenario;
2. for the chart to begin a descent equal in magnitude to the ascent from 2002...for the next 2years or so to see parity with Euro or perhaps even a deeper descent to duplicate the 2002 range.

In my op, those big money barrons who control FX are super viscious, take no prisoners and caused a lot of misery. Glad I am not trading long term possies 'til I see a definite retrace...even if it takes as you said, 'til Q1. GT all, hope no one got burnt today. GEP, looks like you faired nicely!

london cam 23:16 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 21:39 GMT December 3, 2004
CB, Interesting info. However, note that longer term players are still shorting the USD. The hardcore trend followers will probably continue selling hence further weakening to come in the near future. I wouldn't be surprised if this trend continues into Q1 05. US multinationals will benefit from a weaker USD when repatriating overseas earnings. Additionally, this should help boost US stocks into next year. IMHO I see little chance of any significant retracement for at least 3 to 4 weeks.
GL GT

hk ab 23:09 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
It was indeed a very interesting Friday move.
Euro has a meeting at 1.3530 if we don't see guns there, nk 1.4088888888 will be next.
My gut feeling told me CBs are playing fire to allow all the players setting in their positions first. As they can "know" the different positions the best, it's easy for them to take their actions at the "best time".

Didn't MOF say they won't interven till dlr/jpy hit 160 few years ago?....
Fed is smart in passing the ball to ECB, "If you dare, you guys print then."

747, any chance for you to meet with us while you are staying in hk? however, my daily schedule is rather packed recently.

Halifax CB 21:39 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Interesting developments in IMM spec positions.

Livingston nh 21:24 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
First AUD, now CAD can't seem to close on a break of 21 da sma for two consecutive days - swissy made a run at its 21 da sma but backed off again --- some of the runners look tired but EUR and Cable are pulling them along // Good W/e to all and to all a goodnite

KL KL 21:11 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
fwiw I closed from my last recent long gbpusd at 1.9422 at 40 +18....maybe it may gap up and also down to clear some stale longs...pips in hand better than pips in air. OK trading day today...still cannot beat last Friday...so predictable and good today!! Have a good weekend all...monday is another day!!

Atlanta-South 20:53 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
He who trades w/o some type of STOP LOSS, be it mental or a set STOP LOSS, might not suvive to place the next trade. I know because it HAS HAPPENED TO ME. It will be painful & costly. A famous trader once said he didn"t believe in STOPS & he LOST big, althought he has recovered, it COST him dearly. Read the archives.

Makassar Alimin 20:53 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
nice consolidation in narrow range near top for euro and gbp, 80% chance of trading higher 80-100 pips higher for euro early next week all IMHO
bye for now, see you all next week

dc CB 20:52 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Ve vill maken more profits, ve vill vin all and fill our koffers to da brim. you dumkoffs dat tink ve vud run like girly men on the 2nd of Dec. haf no idea vat you are up against. our pockets ist still not bursting.

Philadelphia Caba 20:50 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB

Done! Thanks for advice.

Dallas GEP 20:49 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Yeah, TJ it is ALWAYS amazing to me how those dancers know EXACTLY how much cash is in your pocket when you get to their place/ They pace themselves so incredibly well we FX traders could learn much about timing from them. LOL!!!!

Halifax CB 20:47 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
FWIW - I use 50-100 pips for s/l's. Not that it helps....

Dallas GEP 20:46 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Bye all. GREAT Thursday this week for me, Friday was decent. See you Sunday.

Atl TJ 20:46 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 20:35 GMT December 3, 2004
I know you were joking. But it did sound like a good idea! Now if I can only get "The Babe Du Jour" to cooperate. I have closed the Swissy trade and will be flat over the weekend.

Halifax CB 20:46 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Yes a terrible idea! no s/l leaves you open to *really* *really* bad things (go back through the archives, it's littered with messages from traders who sunk themselves that way). Put it in below where you think the worst case scenario will be, but above your real pain threshold....

Dallas GEP 20:40 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Well just to cover in case of a spike, I would put it at 6947 CABA

Philadelphia Caba 20:40 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 20:36 GMT December 3, 2004

Thanks I did, but thinking about leaving long usdjpy without s/l, bad idea?

Makassar Alimin 20:39 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
that's true GEP, seen one recently around 1.26/1.27 level, looks like 1.35 is gonna be printed early monday morning asian session

Philadelphia Caba 20:38 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 20:35 GMT December 3, 2004
I was joking TJ!!! I will leave my eur/gbp short from 6927 open over the weekend

I've left s/l at 0.6939...do you think is enought? Thanks.

Halifax CB 20:36 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
CABA - if it's not too late, check your stop loss points. The market does continue for awhile after most NA dealers close and opens on Sunday evening; when the market is really thin it can get quite volatile. GL, and happy w/e...

Wien GD 20:36 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Yeap ... eur 112 just around the corner ... he he he.

Dallas GEP 20:35 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
I was joking TJ!!! I will leave my eur/gbp short from 6927 open over the weekend

Dallas GEP 20:33 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Guys this close on the EURO at this high a level COULD potentially lead to a GAP up over the weekend.

Atl TJ 20:29 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 20:25 GMT December 3, 2004

Who needs a beer and a lap dance?

BTW my earlier post was meant to be humorous but also carry a little truth in it. Good W/E to all. BB sunday night.

Dallas GEP 20:25 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Never mind EURO moved more than 200 pips!!!!

Makassar Alimin 20:24 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
aud is the only one that hasn't made new high this time, perhaps we should wait for it

Philadelphia Caba 20:24 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
BTW will keep long usdjpy over the weekend. Still in short eurgbp (thanks GEP again).

Dallas GEP 20:22 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Well in terms of pips normally usd/chf alwys moves more than EURO LooK at today CHF moved 235 pips and euro 110 pips. CHF has the potential to move FARTHER than the euro.

Austin rb 20:18 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
Would appreciate thoughts if usd continues slide if eur and chf will move proportionally or one has more potential downside

Philadelphia CABA 20:17 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 20:08 GMT December 3, 2004

I agree, I have the same issue. I'd like to say thanks everyone for help. GL>. Have a nice weekend!

NJ RT 20:08 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Chicago CME 19:10
I understand what you mean ... I will probably get to that point where I can actually post something "valuable " for the community. I don't mean to be annoying, I am just trying to make sense in what I am doing. I don't want to post something (yet)- maybe someone like me will take it for good and will make a mistake. That's all. I'm working hard to learn and hopefully I didn't upset anybody. .... and thnx all for all the help given. Hey, this looks like the longest posting i've made

la gold 20:08 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
The all time low of the $/index is 78.20, there is no point of
talking about intervention before we reach that point on the
index. By the end of the year to beginning 05, we will be @78.20 on the $/index. we may have a decent correction
thereafter, only to reach new lows by the end of march o5.

HK [email protected] 20:05 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 19:53 GMT December 3, 2004

Where prices will be at a certain time I can't tell you.

It seems a big money goes into the Euro and will not exit, contrary to profit taking of funds, which has supposed to commence.
There is also the cash market.
As of my view euro and USD are of the same natue; papers backed by a printing machines.
Paper to paper combat.

If one is afraid of price pullbacks, why will you not trade the canadian, a currency backed by some commodities, which did not move yet seriously, but capable of strong appreciation.
Think!!! If USD loses value , oil will not come down, on top of that worldwide demand is still high, and so with the gold which is the inverse of the USD.
So the Cando is looking promising as me, I like to buy things backed by values at bargain price GL/GT

SanFrancisco tg 19:57 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
If $yen ends the week at this relative value there is no way it will see any significant selling to begin next week so its an easy buy for smal pips if nothing else.

San Diego DC 19:54 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD Futures Friday (12/3) Close:

EUR close today at the futures closing time has not given a sell signal on a daily basis for short-term position trading, will be watching Monday/ Tuesday's close for possible retracement.

Makassar Alimin 19:53 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 19:26 GMT December 3, 2004

where do you see euro trading next week and for the rest of the month? can one expect only tiny pullback initially but to stay above 1.34 for say 300 pips up before pulling back to 1.34 and play the range 1.34-1.37 as mentioned by Myforexveda?

I have another scenario where pullback to 1.3230 to test the daily 13 MA and also trendline before launching another attack higher.

I personally favour the first scenario, to set up some temporary top on weekly chart for a little pullback in january, at the moment weekly chart is just showing no sign of topping yet, so I would expect a much higher price next week

Dallas GEP 19:49 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Hmmm....I wouldn't be surprised if we had a very late run here to 1.35. probably not enought time but market is thin At TODAY's HIGH NOW

perrie como 19:47 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Ukraine Court Orders New Run-Off Election
AP - 6 minutes ago
The Supreme Court declared the results of Ukraine's disputed presidential run-off election invalid Friday and ordered a new run-off be held on Dec. 26, sparking a burst of cheers and fireworks from tens of thousands of opposition supporters rejoicing in Kiev's main square.

Chicago CME 19:39 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
I print very little, your recent post has just been printed. Will probably get the office-boy to laminate it for prosperity!

HK [email protected] 19:38 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
This is my last for tonight as i posted too much.

Atl TJ 19:28 GMT December 3, 2004

Simple Arithmetics.

Euro went down from about 1.18 to 0.82

0.82/1.18=0.695 a loss of 30% no one was talking about wars.

estimate things to the other side 1.18/x=0.695
..........x=1.698 target for Euro IF!!

So what is all the fuss??? It is only capitalism juggling acrobatics around same equilibrium point!!! hahahaaaaaaa

HAPPY RIDE.

SanFrancisco tg 19:37 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
TJ - Ironically you may have put in all in perspective. Put some lines together that work and let em rip.

Wien GD 19:37 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Atl ... TJ: LOL
"The laws of Karma dictate that these comments will come back a bite me hard in the a$$."

Dallas GEP 19:36 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
BTW TJ I agree funny as shitttt!!!

Chicago CME 19:35 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
BCA research have had some good calls this year. They are sticking to their guns and saying that ECB's "line in the sand" is around 1.35. They would use the correction in thin December mkts to build more long euro positions. FWIW. I'm outta here at 3pm. Have a nice w/e all.

Chicago CME 19:32 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
TJ: LOL!

Dallas GEP 19:30 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
censored TJ, you need a beer and a lap dance to chill out this weekend. Have a good one.

Atl TJ 19:28 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
censored the Torpedos, censored the BOJ, censored the intervention, censored the dollar bulls, censored the elephants, and most importantly censored the logic and common sense. Every now and then I amaze myself by doing what logic says I should not do. Hold a Short posi going into the report ( no worries mate), expecting stoch divergence to stop this move, but no worries keep the shorts. So whats next? Hmm how about Swissy at parity, Euro at 1.4500, Yen, hey, .90 sounds good. Prediction, there will be an emergency UN meeting discussing economics and exchange rates. The great debating society will debate. While the economist toss Bean Bombs at each other (could be stinky). Every leader in the free world will be crying "Poor Me, Poor Country".

All the while China continues to peg their currency and collects every other countries wealth. Sell the Dollar until the Mayan Calander runs out!!!!!!!

Well I am going to take my 180 Pips from the Swissy trade and head to the watering hole and smack myself upside the head for not taking more positions. The laws of Karma dictate that these comments will come back a bite me hard in the a$$.

AMF

HK [email protected] 19:26 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
London. 19:18 GMT December 3, 2004
... Treasury official saying that the U.S. government would only consider intervention in the foreign exchange market if the euro rises above $1.45.....


That is really a joke. If the price will go there fast enough the price will fall under it's own gravity.

The message is more simple; Euro will go to 1.45 because do not worry "we shall not intervene". If you belive them.

The target for euro is 1.56XX so why intervene too early.
Now recent indicators values too point to the vicinity of that target.

London. 19:25 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
CNBC web page.

Chicago CME 19:23 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
FMRS: We are pros here. we don't need your frigging shhiiitt.

Dallas GEP 19:22 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
well got 6927 short on eur.gbp 12 pip stop and TP @ 6907....usd/jpy is a long I think but your stop would have to be UNDER 101.80.

Chicago CME 19:22 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GV: London's post looks like a verbatum print from DJ "Market Talk" about an hour ago. FWIW

Global-View 19:19 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
London. 19:18 GMT December 3, 2004 - if this is a reprint, please cite the source.

London 19:18 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
they are even infiltrating the press to get their bucks

Chicago CME 19:18 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
My point Philly is not just to break your balls, but to encourage you to post your thoughts and not just ask questions. You don't need to post your trades (i don't) but just what you are thinking. Maybe its bad timing on my part, but all i ever see from "philly CABA" is questions. (yes, i am having a shitty day. and yes i am hungover....)

perrie como 19:18 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
as you know not so intersted sht term, but over the next 6 months the USD is going to recover much of the ground lost this 2004..not sure about the yen, which might overshadow

happy new year

bi

London. 19:18 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Some in the marketplace are discounting as extremely dubious a report in the German business daily Boersen-Zeitung quoting an unnamed U.S. Treasury official saying that the U.S. government would only consider intervention in the foreign exchange market if the euro rises above $1.45. Still, the report is among the factors, along with the bombings in Spain, that have prompted action in the foreign exhchange market.

Philadelphia CABA 19:15 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Chicago CME 19:13 GMT December 3, 2004

Yes, I'm newbie, so really sorry if you mind....

Mtl JP 19:13 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
RT 19:07 / channel top at 1.3460 on the daily chart

Chicago CME 19:13 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
You too Phillly CABA: All your do is ask questions....Dallas is far too generous. Philly, try contributing once in a while, even if you are a newbie.

Wien GD 19:12 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Mysore forexveda .... patience pls ... eur 112 just around the corner, like gold 300 ... just kidding.

Chicago Irish 19:10 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
New York FRMS et al.No I won't visit your site.I'll never visit your site because of your business practices in this forum,the administrator and participants of this forum have repeatedly asked you to cease and desist with your gutter ball advertising methods,your site is most probably laden with malicious script so anyone considering visiting should know that they may as well change their passwords and credit card details immediately after visiting your site.

Chicago CME 19:10 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Hey, NJ RT: All you do is ask questions. How about contributing once in a while....

Philadelphia CABA 19:10 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP,
what's you view on usdjpy and usdchf, please?

Halifax CB 19:10 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 19:07 GMT December 3, 2004
I think it's kind of like the french resistence. It'll show up once this all over :)

NJ RT 19:07 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
guys ... do you know where the eur/usd resistance is?

Mysore forexveda 19:07 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
I expected 1.37** around xmas time and looks like it will come much before that. 1.37 to 1.34 should be the next range for 2nd and 3rd week of December. euro bears can recover all that money whichi slost in these 2 weeks. In my humble openion only.

Dallas GEP 19:05 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
If the pattern holds, we will probably close at near these usd bear position highs on EURo. GBP etc.

Halifax CB 19:02 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
It may just be that USDCAD has been pretty rangebound anyway for awhile, so it's just not of much speculative interest. Personally, I just go back to my theory that the Asian CB's generally want commodity currencies (and JPY) to pretty much stay put, and they want to open up European markets. So they trade $ reserves for Euro's and GBP. IMHO :)

HK [email protected] 19:02 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
It is very possible, judging on the shape of the hourly that 1.3500 for Euro may come first as target.

It is not easy to accept things like that, as the chart goes up against gravity. If you want to estimate with less psycho problems the Sin$ is easier to grasp.

manila stubbs 19:00 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Memphis Charles 18:57 GMT December 3, 2004

thanks. i am and i will. its just really annoying to me that i got in a little too early. bit of a perfectionist. :) g/l & g/t

FloridA vv 18:58 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Atl TJ 18:53 GMT December 3, 2004
It is bein hammered by Euro

Memphis Charles 18:57 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Stubbs, consider not giving up on your Euro shorts just yet if the pain is not too great.

HK [email protected] 18:56 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   

Atl TJ 18:53 GMT December 3, 2004

The message of the Cando is simple "keep away from me" because I have already a Pimp to get a good money out of me!!!

Atl TJ 18:53 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
And yet the Goose is holding up pretty well considering this Friday afternnon slaughter. I am wondering why? Any suggestions?

London. 18:52 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
manila stubbs these are the elephants that Gecko has been talking about

manila stubbs 18:51 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
i dont get it. who the censored wants to buy euros at these levels without first having a decent sized correction? holding onto old possies is fine, but buying new ones?

HK [email protected] 18:50 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   

Indo. Rupia and Philippines Peso too, invited themselves to

the Beat the USD party.

Vancouver BC WLV 18:48 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Ooh-la-la... USD short squeeze!!!!

Dallas GEP 18:46 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
shorted gbp/usd @ 1.9427 12 pip stop

Stockholm AGuy 18:46 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Watch USD/JPY - close to taking out yesterday's low now.

Makassar Alimin 18:45 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
have to make this simple and it is tradable, it is surely buy on dips for euro with plenty of support levels along 1.33 handle and immediate important one still 1.3230, the fear of intervention is always spooking the market but hey they have to prove it first by actually delivering one but none will be any soon

perrie como 18:44 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
tks HK...was just concerned about

...many people there very desparate
and lot of commodities and pipes feeding europe from russian federation
think Putin doesn't want Nato there,

maybe the story isn't finished yet

nice w/e

houston st 18:44 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   

OK -- will do....gl/gt.

houston st 18:42 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   

OKIE -- doing great...hope you're right...would sure make up for last year....mkt wise bought some eur$ on the break higher and getting ready to bail...like to end the week on a positive note...great weekend to you...

OK SZ 18:40 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
st, hey mate how ya been? yes I think we will be heading to florida and yes I will be there..take care..

HK [email protected] 18:39 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 18:37 GMT December 3

read the post below...NEW ELECTIONS. NO MORE TEARS!!!

OK SZ 18:39 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
was in such a hurry to type that message and head out that reading it sounds like a school kid..anyway wanted to just say that everyone have a good and safe weekend.

houston st 18:38 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   

OKIE -- you too....GO SOONERS!

perrie como 18:37 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Hi

anyone here has a clue what comes further here. heard risk of puthces or civil war, since what I have understood there are similarly two very different sides of Ukraine

KIEV (Reuters) - Ukraine's Supreme Court ruled on Friday that a disputed presidential election officially won by Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich was invalid.

OK SZ 18:36 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
TG, that has been my high for the euro for december..135 then a retracement..everyone have a good weekend and safe w/e

Helsinki iw 18:31 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Pretty much in agreement there tg -must be a first. I have 1,3475/85 as good resistance which should hold a first run and force a correction. Preferably below 1,30, maybe on the outside 1,25. So just bought some dollars here and actually feeling a bit neo-connish. Have a good w/e.

HK [email protected] 18:29 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   

This market, is like set to give any surprise upon the close.

Makassar Alimin 18:27 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
a top might be near but not before we see euro 1.35 IMHO, personally i am still looking at 1.37-1.38 as potential top, but heck this could go on to beyond 1.40 and we all look stupid calling for tops when in fact 5 big figures is with the trend

ham cla 18:26 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
ny man sold dol/chf was main seller down to 1,1330-3

SanFrancisco tg 18:24 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Seriously .. long term proection has been for a 135 Euro strike to cap and fall to 133 thereafter. Does not imply the end of the road for Euro purchasing, just a technical possibility.

HK [email protected] 18:22 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   

K.I.S.

If today Gold close is above 365.5 prev. day high, then we get a bullish signal counter to the bearish daily one Y.day.

And a run to 470 vicinity. will affecy currencies too !

KL KL 18:19 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
short eurcad 1.6087 sl 20 above

long usdchf 1.3338 sl 16 below

SanFrancisco tg 18:19 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
For me to know and you to find out Helsinki *

Memphis Charles 18:18 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Short Eur/$ at 1.3423 (ish) looking for 1.3363 early next week. Will probably get blistered.

Helsinki iw 18:15 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
tg -"Buy Euro on dips"

You could might be the ultimate euro bear just turned bull.

A top nearby?

HKK [email protected] 18:12 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Gold very strong after giving a reversal signal.

KL KL 18:12 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
out short euro +10 at 30 gbpusd +10 at 04

dc fxq 18:08 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
MNI reporting a "high ranking Tsy official" has advised a GER financial daily that the US won't intervene until EURUSD hits 1.45. This is the basis for this leg up.

As if a EMU newspaper has ireliable "highly placed" contacts in the Tsy given to overall state of relations between the US and Old Europe. LoL

Dallas GEP 18:08 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
OK out on EURO longs FLAT

KL KL 18:07 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
short eurusd 1.3440 gbpusd 1.9414 sl 10 above

Dallas GEP 18:06 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
1.3440 is TP on my EURO longs

SanFrancisco tg 18:06 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki - If that is true than the greater EU unemployment rate i(France/Germany) is closer to 22% than 11%.

Stockholm - Ok you have exposed me. I'm actually posting from behind the Iron curtain where the unemployment rate is about 45%. I'm a defector.

Buy Euro on dips.

San Diego DC 18:05 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/$
It looks like there is a possibility to go to 1.3530-1.3550 before a potential change in direction begins on Dec 6-7 time cycle, for short-term position trading .

ham cla 18:04 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
should read months....

HK [email protected] 18:02 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
1.3440/50 is worth a second look for pullback if any, or a continuation price run

HK [email protected] 14:41 GMT November 30, 2004
Tech. shows 1.3440/50, first for euro may have some correction may not correct.

Dallas GEP 18:00 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Ok Reversed on Eur now LONG stop on longs 1.3385

ham cla 17:58 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
hey martin, tks mate.... yeahh slowly had a hard time last month....family matters.....

Atlanta-South 17:57 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
1.3408 just printed on same platform.

Makassar Alimin 17:57 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
with euro closing at this level, can we then say that 1.35 early next week is almost guaranteed? 1.34 is definitely there now and still cilmbing

Philadelphia CABA 17:57 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP s/l on long?

ham cla 17:56 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
its "BÖRSENZEITUNG" = STOCKEXCHANGE NEWS

gold coast martin 17:55 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
ham cla 17:53 GMT December 3, 2004
Hamster.....long time no hear.....hope you post more....welcome back.....

Atlanta-South 17:54 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
My platform F X C MMMM shows 1.3402 as a printed high.

gold coast martin 17:53 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Boca Raton 17:49 GMT December 3, 2004
Dear fellow Vikings. Best have some more Akavit.

....or better still buy some real cars and get rid of the volvos....too ivory tower like.......

ham cla 17:53 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
reuters, runs report from a local newspaper (germany), citing a senior US Treasury Official, saying 1,4500 is earliest US consider to buy $ against the €..... FWIW

HK [email protected] 17:53 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   

Correction. those who will be accepted by no one etc. etc.

HK [email protected] 17:51 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw 17:40 GMT December 3, 2004

Non registered; those who do not like to work, or like working from time to time jobs they find, those who will be accepted by any one etc. etc.

Boca Raton 17:49 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Dear fellow Vikings. Best have some more Akavit.

Dallas GEP 17:48 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
took some more euro short 1.3398 stop 1.3407

Helsinki iw 17:40 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Actually tg, there are alot of discouraged unemployed out there who are not included in official statistics. I have seen estimates that the true unemployment rate is close to 9% in the USA. Don´t know which would be the truth.

Stockholm AGuy 17:40 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco tg 17:25 GMT: "Euro program (CNBC World aka Socialists Are Us)"

Oh dear. And here I was thinking you'd been remarkably well-behaved the last week or so...

CNBC Europe, part of CNBC, owned lock stock and barrel by General Electric, has been going on about the need for free market, structural reform for years. I'd be surprised if there was a full business day when they didn't run at least one interview with somebody invoking it. What's this nonsense about "Socialists Are Us"?!?

And then there's the funny little detail of somebody claiming to be in San Francisco, but repeatedly getting words like "prudent" and "pertinent" mixed up (which native English speaker would?) and now revealing that he's watching CNBC... Europe?

This is beginning to look a lot like "US Dollar Basher" in reverse. You wouldn't happen to be really posting from, say, Vienna, would you "tg"?

"Unemployment Rate dropped from 5.5% to 5.4%"

Bah! Given the way that figure is "computed", a decimal change either way means nothing.

"112 THOUSAND PERSON GAIN"

Too bad it would have to be 150 000 just in order to keep up with population growth.

"Are any of you trading off of such old world propoganda"

What propaganda?!?

HK [email protected] 17:40 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Can remove a little tension around the Euro, not bad at all.

Ukraine supreme court calls for new presidential runoff

KIEV (AFP) - Ukraine's supreme court annuled the results of a disputed presidential election and ordered a new round of the runoff vote, which the opposition said must take place on December 26.

"We order the central election commission to set a date for a new runoff vote... from December 5, 2004 in accordance with the law," chief presiding justice Anatoly Yarema said.


Representatives of the opposition said the law stipulated holding a new election three weeks after that date, or on December 26.

"I think it'll be the 26th" of December, said Yury Kluchkovsky.

saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088 17:36 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening..

Poor Daddy Rich Daddy...i think VGecko was talking about this nice book of Kawasaki..

If Euro fly to the target above while Usd/chf stay above 1.10 or some pips below 1.10 be sure Euro is getting ready to reverse at least @ 1.25 for first station..

Have a nice rest time as me..

nk

Dallas GEP 17:34 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Han.....it dpends on whether of not you think that option defense will hold @ 1.34. I do and so stop is @ 1.3407. I think if you got short at 1.3395-1.3397 that would be good

SG Han 17:31 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Any suggestion to short EUR/USD at current level? TIA

SA Pat 17:27 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
JHB CDB
u arround?

SanFrancisco tg 17:25 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Euro program (CNBC World aka Socialists Are Us) calls todays less than expected BUT STILL IN LINE WITH 1990'S GROWTH Non Farm Payroll figure a "huge huge pressure" on US markets. Approximately one minute later the propoganda claims that the US dollar is falling because of the "less than expected" figure even though the Unemployment Rate dropped from 5.5% to 5.4% (112 THOUSAND PERSON GAIN).

Are any of you trading off of such old world propoganda using a pretty chick to deliver?

If you are selling USD sell it because of technical levels and because the "weak dollar policy" is still in play (and it will be for months). The US economy is absolutely leaving the EU economy behind, and its no wonder countries such as Italy want to pull out of the EU agenda.

Calls for 135 Euro are prevelent, but even if not seen the above par ratio is rebalancing the long favored Euro scenario (approximately 7 years).

Buy Euro on dips to 3300 - 3250 on retracements of these gains.

london sylhet 17:24 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
WHERE YOU FROM

london sylhet 17:24 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
HELLO Dallas GEP

MAY I KNOW WERE YOU FROM

dc fxq 17:22 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Yes , censored had a high avg price (splitting bid/offer at 1.3999. I didn't see 1.3400 offered there. Spread BTW was 2 pips.

Data Checker 17:20 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
John, check dates in history database after May 4, 2001.

Dallas GEP 17:16 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GD that price in their chart is ASK not BID

Dallas GEP 17:15 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
You know sometimes picking a top on a ccy is like trying to change a headlight on a car going 200 KPH!!! LOL

Wien GD 17:13 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq ... ffxxccmm shows high 1.3401

Tallinn viies 17:13 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
seems that 1,3550 is almost here :)
ssee you next week. will buy euros again on dips as long as 1,3220/30 contains it
have a nice w/e

Dallas GEP 17:13 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
FXQ, IIFFRR says it printed but on my THREE platforms I have NO 1.3400 print.....98 on SAXXXXO, 98 on FFXXCCMM, 99 on GGFFTT

dc fxq 17:10 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 17:05 GMT December 3, 2004
GD....not really...If price prints 1.340

A source saying there was a 1.3400 print

Atl TJ 17:06 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Gep, Watching Swissy 30 min to see if Slow Stoch will give a divergence signal. Don't know if it will happen but if it does I will take a shot.

Dallas GEP 17:05 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GD....not really...If price prints 1.3400 then option is defeated. Really 1.3407 is better..I will change to that so that the platform operator can't say he saw a 1.3402 BID in market!!!

Wien GD 17:02 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP ... not afraid of a stop hunt at 1.3405??

Dallas GEP 16:55 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
1.3405 is stop and REVERSE that last euro short

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:44 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Good to see that we are not having the usual Friday food fights around here. It seems that Fridays might have a song for the eur/usd bulls as well (who let the bulls out) with the virgin trader sacrifices in full bloom. The bulls are on the loose again but with less force than recent memory and signs are pointing to a $ correction getting stronger but it just does not seem to get over the edge for some reason or another. Need a close above the 3400 to put some more pressure on the bears (not that they need anymore). Anyway looking for 3400 to print for eur/usd on the bullish move IMHO. I hope everyone has a good and safe weekend. See you on the other side GL GT

van Gecko 16:42 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
AGuy.. nah.. depends on the way you look at it.. as being 'poor or fat' is all relative to the state of our mind, body & wealth..

Stockholm AGuy 16:36 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 16:33 GMT:

So you basically want him to turn into a poor, fat guy? ;^)

Dallas GEP 16:35 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
OK 1.1380 short again on EURO

van Gecko 16:33 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
AGuy.. if nothing else come of it.. he just might get fat eating the cookie crumbs.. no?

Stockholm AGuy 16:31 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Hands too slow to follow head again; witty remark was supposed to read "but what will it do his waistline?". Drat!

Stockholm AGuy 16:30 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 16:22 GMT: "please take up the fine art of studying fortune cookies.. it might be benifical for your trading"

Ah, but what will it do to his trading? :-)

Watching the gold sector is less fattening (in more way tha one): gold stocks plunging and bullion having a lot of trouble at 450, not confirming the marginal new high in EUR/USD, supports the notion of a major cyclical turn looming for USD.

Dublin Flip 16:27 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
amc. It's very easy to take bigger positions these days thanks to the gearing/margin business. The explosion in Hedge/prop funds also means there are alot of people trading who have little experience and/or have misconceptions over how inconsistent FX volume can be. Hoping to mimic one's manhandling experiences of a largely sympathetic/long only market like Equities into this one is playing for danger. The oil implosion of the past couple of days is a very good example of the risk of gearing position sizes just because you can.

van Gecko 16:22 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
those MIB didn't do the last Sydney monday.. another chance coming up next Monday..

"15:43 GMT November 28, 2004
.... with last week's Dollar spike & close down at the extremes of another multi-year low set-up, just think what would happen if those Men in Black were to flood the market with Dollar bids 5 minutes before Sydney open its trading week.."


Hong Kong Phooey 16:12.. its risk vs reward at/near a L/M/T inflection point.. different strokes for different folks..
if you like my posts, please take up the fine art of studying fortune cookies.. it might be benifical for your trading..
cheers

Hong Kong B747 16:21 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
good weekend to all...HKG night life have much more to offer than my positions for the moment.

gt and great weekend all

melbourne farmacia 16:17 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
KL - Just intraday stuff. Entry near European low…t/p done now ( out on drink tonight & back to nice surprise ).. bed time good weekend all.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:15 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Boils to this
Currency Short Long TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3313 1.3263 Hold Buy
NZDUSD 0.7181 0.7139 Hold Buy
EURJPY 138.02 136.51 Hold Buy
GBPJPY 199.81 197.98 Hold Buy
CHFJPY 90.37 89.53 Hold Buy
EURAUD 1.7241 1.7128 Hold Buy

Hong Kong B747 16:14 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
SF LongView 16:13 GMT December 3, 2004

cannot be in my head; my head is empty...cheers!

gt

ny amc 16:13 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 16:10 GMT December 3, 2004 could you explain that post a little more please. thanks

Livingston nh 16:13 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Would keep an eye on Treasuries - rallied on the NFP - folks keep pitching the idea of a slower Fed to the rubes // yield curve has to stretch out here IMO

SF LongView 16:13 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong B747 16:09 GMT December 3, 2004

Hope those are not just voices in your head......:)

Hong Kong Phooey 16:12 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Q: If bottom picking gives you stinky fingers, what does top picking give you? Please van gecko enlighten me. I like your posts, sort of like fortune cookies.

"Help me, I'm being held hostage in a Chinese fortune cookie factory"

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:12 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Currency Short Long TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3313 1.3263 Hold Buy
USDJPY 103.49 103.23 Hold Hold
GBPUSD 1.9267 1.9213 Hold Hold
USDCHF 1.1505 1.1463 Hold Hold
EURCHF 1.5268 1.5223 Hold Hold
AUDUSD 0.7759 0.7706 Hold Hold
USDCAD 1.1952 1.1868 Hold Hold
NZDUSD 0.7181 0.7139 Hold Buy
EURGBP 0.6923 0.6887 Hold Hold
EURJPY 138.02 136.51 Hold Buy
GBPJPY 199.81 197.98 Hold Buy
CHFJPY 90.37 89.53 Hold Buy
GBPCHF 2.2129 2.2015 Hold Hold
EURAUD 1.7241 1.7128 Hold Buy
EURCAD 1.5861 1.5778 Hold Hold
AUDCAD 0.9266 0.9184 Hold Hold
AUDJPY 80.19 79.66 Hold Hold

Dallas GEP 16:11 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Well EURO made new high off that 30 minute candle but pulled back pretty good. FIGURES

Hong Kong B747 16:09 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
voices saying that Mr. Soros will realize very soon why he have US citizenship and will flip into the USD bull suit.

gt

KL KL 16:09 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, thanks... you still riding - man of steel or has your view change to the long side again??

Dallas GEP 16:02 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Cloased SHORT EURO at BE...candle now bullish

melbourne farmacia 16:00 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
KL - Gbp/Usd top picking... maybe 1.9391

Boca Raton 15:59 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Or double up at 1.3480!

Dallas GEP 15:53 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Well if you want a TIGHT stop 1.3393 or SAFER @ 1.3407

KL KL 15:52 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
not as explosive as I expected today. Only manage to catch 2 train today.now again out of 2nd from long 1.9324 at 1.9365...+41.. seems like some La-resistance near here...flat now...relong lower or maybe above La resistance!!

MK LONDON 15:52 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR$ 34+ TODAY

Philadelphia Caba 15:49 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:45 GMT December 3, 2004
got a 1.3377 short

Gep, where is your s/l, please?

sg kan 15:48 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
LA TY
what's your thought on EUR/USD for New York session? TIA

Tallinn viies 15:46 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
crude is up 3% from the lows....
fwiw

van Gecko 15:46 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Phooey 15:31.. thanks.. actually 'tour' may be the appropiate word.. as in take a 'tour' to Jay's wonderful archives & try to decipher some of my recent thoughts.. then fire away if you still have any questions..:)
happy to pick up a few bucks down here when everyone wants to sell it down to 0.. cheers

Dallas GEP 15:45 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
got a 1.3377 short

Dallas GEP 15:39 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Candle pattren suggests that a short EURO is not a bad idea with a stop above 1.34 for TODAY. I will try and get a 1.3370-75 short

Hong Kong Qindex 15:36 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

berlin otto 15:36 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Ok, guys

good morning and good day to everybody on this chat

I an back from vaccation. It was amazing.

GL/GT

Hong Kong B747 15:35 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
jkt-aye 15:32 GMT December 3, 2004

+/- 33%

Syd 15:35 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
If oil falls below $40 CAD will really hit the fan.

jkt-aye 15:32 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GBPUSD...

1) in 41 days (09/03/03-10/29/03) move 1476 pips (1.5606-1.7082) followed by 519 pips correction (1.7082-1.6563) in 7 days.

2) then in 45 days (11/07/03-01/12/04) move 2014 pips (1.6563-1.8577) followed by 757 pips correction (1.8577-1.7820) in 6 days

and now

from 10/06/04-12/02/04 (42 days) already move 1694 pips (1.7744-1.9438).

Will it repeat again ? (expecting at least 500 pips correction if 1.9438 assume as top for this round)

London. 15:32 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Economic activity excluding the manufacturing sector grew at a stronger-than-expected pace in November, marking the 20th consecutive month of expansion. The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index for November rose 1.5 points from October to 61.3, above the consensus forecast of 59.0. fastest pace of growth measured for this sector of the economy since July. "November's index indicates continued growth across most non-manufacturing industries," with 34% of members reporting increases and only 9% seeing decreases.

Gold Coast Martin, yes time the great healer


Hong Kong Phooey 15:31 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
tour = your

Hong Kong Phooey 15:31 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Van Gecko: so are you bullish CAD and CHF or are you bullish USD/CAD, USD/CHF? I enjoy tour posts but sometimes I have no clue what the censored you are talking about.

van Gecko 15:28 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
the Goose is flying.. and soon the Royal Swiss National soldiers will start their long march up the Alps..
London you got some?
gold coast martin..yep, nothing goes in a straight line.. just like doing L/M/T trades.. cheers

gold coast martin 15:20 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 15:13 GMT December 3, 2004
very true...it will be like HONG kong//..given autonomous status...the method of unification will be peaceful because by then {5-10 years}the new peking regime will be a more liberal new generation leadership as the remnants of the old guard that are still there will no longer be there...it is amazing what time accomplishes...g/t

sf mike 15:19 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Is USD/CAD no longer a leader?

Hong Kong B747 15:18 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 15:13 GMT December 3, 2004

better not like a lost dog...they will eat them!
better back like SAR around 2009-2012; China do not like to have olympics like 1980.

gt

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:17 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
friends.. in my system gbp/usd have given message will go to the top 1.9452 (bid number).
maybe move from 1.9310.
be carefull with your selling in gbp/usd !!

London 15:16 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko not sure , though problem is China have got the musle especially now. Dont think Taiwan will role over and play dead that easy without a fight

Ldn 15:14 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
US ISM Nov non-mfg business index 61.3 Vs Oct 59.8.

van Gecko 15:13 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
yo London.. there will be no PLA attack.. the status quo will be maintained & Taiwan will eventually revert back to the Mainland like a long lost dog..

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:10 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
HK;
Rep:...my posts are targeting Ladies and Gents ;)

London. 15:07 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Can see trouble brewing with China and Taiwan in the not too distant future would be wise to keep an eye on that especially with all the investment going on.
China tests ballistic missile submarine
link very near future, China will have a secure, second-strike nuclear attack capability that it will use to bolster its nuclear strategy of seeking to deter the United States from aiding Taiwan after a PLA attack

Hong Kong B747 15:03 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:58 GMT December 3, 2004

I love to watch your calls...long for how many pips/pimps?
is your target is within 10 pimps?!

anyway, as long you make money it means that you are right as time may show both of us making money with opposite calls.

gt

gold coast martin 15:02 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 14:16 GMT December 3, 2004
..FWIW...Could the data have exposed the top of the euro{13383} of this upside cycle,to the market based in current price action?..if so we can began to see the emergence of a downward euro cycle tonite...will look to technicals for rest of the nite for clues.....just a thought....

Reason for re-posting above is after nearly 90 minutes of post data trading 13383 has not been broken.....on this basis agree with the euro at 13345-50 having good risk/reward ....fwiw..added euro shorts at 133558-60 level....g/t

dc fxq 15:01 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
whoops
61.3

dc fxq 15:01 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
81.3 vs 59.8 (58.5 consensus)

Hong Kong B747 15:00 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 14:56 GMT December 3, 2004

I am shorting...good or not only time will tell
my average stands @ 136.70 at the moment

gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:58 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
I think Eur/Yen might be good to enter long soon
136.51
area

HK Kevin 14:58 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
IMHO, EUR may vibrate btw 1.3320 and 1.3370 for several hrs.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:57 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
www.geocities.com/kalzayani
Just Updated Levels + Small changes in the Last Columns
Each High and Low are treated as a diffrent time series

dc fxq 14:56 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
58.0 - 58.5 consensus area for ISM services at 1500 GMT

Philadelphia Caba 14:56 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong B747 14:47 GMT December 3, 2004
Philadelphia Caba 14:38 GMT December 3, 2004
May I ask you on your comment for eurjpy, please?

sure, busy with building short position with target under 130/- as initial hit number; I am not a day trade.

So level above 137 is currently good for that short positions?

Hong Kong B747 14:55 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 14:50 GMT December 3, 2004

EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY shorts are without s/l for the moment; as I may get hit from EUR/USD shorts, I have do this way to ensure yield for the portfolio on y/y base.

NewYork frankie 14:55 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
The risk reward on a Euro short here is very good here. Yesterday's bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart, end of year profit taking and the reluctance to open new longs by the big boys, bode well for a correction in everthing, but particularly the Euro. A good stop at 1.34 should do the trick here for a 100pip initial target. Something is a brewing.

Philadelphia Caba 14:51 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong B747

Thanks for comment.

dc fxq 14:51 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
PAR 14:44 GMT

last quote 1.3361 :)

Philadelphia Caba 14:50 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong B747 14:47 GMT December 3, 2004

What's your s/l for this short positions?

van Gecko 14:49 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
re. 12:38 NFP formulas..
its 'bad NFP'+MIB absorbing any spike=No Fun Party..

just waiting to collect a few more DBB before the blast..

Hong Kong B747 14:47 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 14:38 GMT December 3, 2004
May I ask you on your comment for eurjpy, please?

sure, busy with building short position with target under 130/- as initial hit number; I am not a day trade.

gt

china qq 14:44 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
u guys ready to short eur and cable..?? i am still waiting buy them @1.3345 for the third wave tonite to break 1.34 target..

PAR 14:44 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
What is exchange rate between monopoly money and US dollar ?

HK Kevin 14:40 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong B747 14:32 GMT, if lucky enough, we could see 1.3298 before NYC. Just short EUR and Cable at 1.3368 and 1.9361.

Philadelphia Caba 14:38 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong B747 14:32 GMT December 3, 2004

May I ask you on your comment for eurjpy, please?

SanFrancisco tg 14:38 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Some of the next best risk/reward trades based on buying or selling exhaustion are :

Sell $Cad
Buy $Chf
Sell Eur/Usd
Sell Gbp/Usd
Buy $Yen

Patience will be a virtue, so let the current bias conclude :)

Possible may need to wait a couple more hours for shifts in bias.

Roumeli anka 14:36 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
usdchf :
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/charts/contrarian/chfd2711ii.gif

orlando jcr 14:35 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
I know I said i was leaving, but forex is like a drug sometimes - just one more look...

Took a long euro +6 pip and now I REALLY am out for the day - wish it were more, but no time/patience for longing today.

Hong Kong B747 14:32 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
china qq 14:22 GMT December 3, 2004
good one; but also the data came from a computer...ho ho ho


alimin, at least I could take more short EUR/USD lots @ 1.3377...but my EUR/USD record looks very bad for the moment. :-)

dc CB 14:31 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Actually this number- NFP-was good for GWB & Co. It wasn't a negative number and it's taken the pressure off the bond market...squeezing those built up shorts going into the expected rate hike this month. An antidote for the Greeney move from when he said "those not hedged (interest rates)are desirous of losing money". Oil going down, bonds up, if stocks take off and make new highs....oh boy merry christmas who cares about the buck!

San Diego DC 14:29 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/$,
This leg up is quite strong (tech), after some consolidation in this area , my 2 cetns is the next resistance area is around 1.3430-1.3450 whether it happens today or Sunday night or Monday.

singapore kingpin 14:29 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
no matter how bad data is, feds wont stop hiking rates, the reason they will give the public.. is the dollar (other wise mr g would never mention the demise of the dollar last month), but the truth is that rates are too low, this was done for a long term reason, for everyone to take advantage thru fixed loans, even mentioned at the same time last month that those who are not hedged against higher rates are about to get whacked, till then USD will be beaten and butchered but once the market realises this, the worst of data will not put a scratch on the USD.

china qq 14:28 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
we might see the third wave for later day.. might...hehe.. start might @1.3345

orlando jcr 14:26 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Halifax,

Agree not that bad, along with 5.4% unemployment.
However, it is expectations that move the market usually more than the actual number.

If it were just about numbers Euro would tank.... Germany at 10% unemployment. most of Europe over 7%.... numbers don't justify where the euro is. US economy is stronger.

Halifax CB 14:24 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
orlando jcr - it wasn't that bad a number, it just didn't meet lots of people's over-hyped imaginations. It's best taken in comparison with the EU or Canada, and year-on-year.

china qq 14:22 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
good thing my machine told me right thing again.. believe ur computer than the data... ....my experiences..hehe..lol..

orlando jcr 14:22 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Well made good on bad position...
Unfortunately I lowered my target because I have to go to Doctor appointment - so didn't make near the money I wanted.

Then of course, it hits all of my ST targets before I need to log off - lost profits...GRRR

I guess I should take any profit as good profit - just wanted more for the end of the week.

NewYork frankie 14:21 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
I believe selling the Euro here is probably the safest bet of the day. 1.3385 will cap it for today. Don't be too surprised to see a mega move down shortly.

Budapest Daniel 14:21 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Boca, Raton, there are many other c.r.a.p.p.y. applications as well... Mainly the browser based application f.u.c.k. us up the most.

china qq 14:21 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
better not short any currences vs U.S.. just wait relatived low price to buy them... do not against all the players and banks in the world..hehe

Boca Raton 14:20 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GeeFT is the worst trading platform in the world. No one who wants to make money should use it.

china qq 14:18 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
my second target almost done.. hope won't over 20mins. will be reached

Livingston nh 14:18 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Ict ML - seems the USD/CAD long might continue to be good for a while (no BoC hike, Fed hike and some concern about US expansion)

china qq 14:17 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
second wave uptrend coming soon.. careful guys

orlando jcr 14:16 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Mad at G-F--T....
Put in my long EUR position and it went to pending...
Didn't execute until after pop up and drop down, so no profit on it yet. Of course, they wouldn't let me cancel it either.

Now waiting for the trend to take us over 1.34 as people have been talking.

Hopefully will still make some PIP on the trade, but it doesn't make sense. The last bad NFP the dollar tanked. Understand the position is much different now than two months ago, but overall the reaction seems somewhat muted for the number.

ICT ML 14:13 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
well NH....I guess since GWB won the election they didn't feel the need to count new full time moms, pizza delivery drivers, ice cream men and pimps, etc.....in the NFP anymore....LOL

I got no clue what to do right now regards to this whacko market. Gut says just SDS (sell dollar stupid) but there was violent reactions stopping that from getting very far. Maybe things will pick a direction later.....who knows.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:12 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
hello all. I hope you got my chart forcast at fxtradercenter.
have a nice for your profit in discipline action. :-)

Halifax CB 14:12 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Nice job getting back on, GV..Quite a little spike there after the NFP. My guess is that in the long run it is probably good for $-bulls, as it doesn't seem to be sustained.

Tallinn viies 14:11 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
closed my long euro at 1,3364. thnks all.
hopefully it is all for this week.
going to bottom fish crude today...
good lu8ck

Philadelphia Caba 14:10 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Okay guys, is after NFP..your comments on next market move?

Makassar Alimin 14:10 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
what's holding usd at the moment? thought data were below expectation...any post data analysis? or is it gecko's MIB in action?

china qq 14:10 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
second target
@1.3370..hope can see soon..

Helsinki iw 14:08 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Looking at the price action, the dollar is displaying resilience that hasn´t been seen for ages. Maybe a low close for the EUR/USD tonight. Fwiw, a medium term trading model bought USD/CAD today, it was short from 1,3120 on Sep 1.

London Misha 14:08 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Leave Jay alone guys - its a tough job & we ought to be grateful for him providing the means to talk so openly!

London Zappy 14:08 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
what was NFP fig by the way? (LOL)

Dallas Mauricio 14:07 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
This day has truly sucked!

Budapest Daniel 14:06 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Maybe the GVI's staff has decided to suspend the forum just like my broker. LOL

Dallas GEP 14:06 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Nice job Jay getting server back!!!

Global-View 14:05 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
We are back online and it was a server issue that we quickly attended to. Sorry for the inconveneience but it was beyond our control.

Makassar Alimin 14:05 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
what's wrong with GV? access is not honoured? LOL
i couldnt get back in the moment data were released

china qq 14:03 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
nice good trend..

ICT ML 13:30 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
well there was a censored GAP if I ever saw one

Dallas GEP 13:29 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
OK CHF will probably move the most off the data usd/chf

china qq 13:28 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
in hourly chart.. cable has a very good figure for uptrendline........................ very strong signal .....just technical

Livingston nh 13:24 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
NFP headline fig used to be important for determining Fed moves but is less so recently - avg earnings figs and hours inside the report are more important now because of the Productivity myth the G'span preaches

Dallas GEP 13:24 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
My my DOJIS evrywhwre!!! LOL

JHB CDB 13:24 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
$ Bull or Bear? I read that the NFP will not have a suprise for the market. This could make the Technicals look good for a change.

Any comments?

Makassar Alimin 13:23 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
somehow i think the move is already predetermined by big players, numbers are just excuses to justify the action
i dont really care whether the number is really good or really bad, it is the market's interpretation that is important, remember last NFP was very very good number and yet we had the opposite direction to what the number was supposedly telling us

china qq 13:22 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
good cable.. still in longing position.. good fiure..

china qq 13:21 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
ready guys..?? 9mins to go..

china qq 13:21 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
ready guys..?? 9mins to go..

Eilat Dolphin 13:19 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Hi all! My early month psycho-stat-math instict instinct tells me to expect a better number, possibly even better than better.

Dallas Mauricio 13:19 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Toes too!

Paris MAXX 13:17 GMT December 3, 2004
Fingers crossed Maurico!

Paris MAXX 13:17 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Fingers crossed Maurico!

van Gecko 13:16 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Lndn Frnd 12:42..:) if you need explanations please fire away!

china qq 13:16 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
out for long eur position.. 5pips locking out..lucky am i ..hehe

Dallas Mauricio 13:15 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
I'm right there with you.

Paris MAXX 12:51 GMT December 3, 2004
fwiw Went short small cable at 1.9270...will keep it through the figures...

Livingston nh 13:14 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Re: NFP - the revisions for Sept and Oct may play a market role because of the Hurricane adjustments -- Beige Book showed some difficulty in finding skill workers in some districts but ISM figs show good job figs so retail hiring for holidays seems the swing

china qq 13:14 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
data sometimes is D.A.M.N bad information. ..believe everyone believe not long time ago, when U.S. unemployee's data out........... 2 times better than expected.. however, still losing 250 pips in that horrible friday..if u still remembered that...

prague jv 13:13 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Haveing some conflicting situations here . eur/usd and usd/jpy closed 1 hr chart exactly on reasent revers points for my med term system . The indicators i am useing pointing to very strong usd movment , but positionig in system has turned euro pozitive . Conclusion here for me on the next movment is we will see movment in random direction but after the dast setles down , we will returne to levels BEFORE anoucement .So if you betting , go opposit movment for retutn into neutral levels we are now . That is my feeling for this NFP event.

china qq 13:11 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
yeap.. u r right HK kaven ..heh .thx body.. that's why experts always ask us to set sl and locking ur profits in habits... hehe.. whenever forming this habit, anytime u enter the market is safed.. heh ee

Calabash TarHeel 13:11 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 13:03 GMT December 3, 2004
Don't think the Euro bulls are thru yet. Probably take +300k to hold off another round of $ selling. Any excuse will do to shoot for 1.35. Imho
gl,gt

Dallas GEP 13:09 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Flat now waiting for NFP data

HK Kevin 13:05 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
china qq 12:56 GMT, Not wise to take a risk before the NFP release for 20 pips.

honolulu Byron 13:04 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
china qq 12:59 GMT // may be u can take a look of my chart... still not confirm yet...http://fxtradercenter.com/ftopict-86.html

dc fxq 13:03 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
SBN Sure-fire 13:00 GMT December 3, 2004
market rumors, NFP 250+k


sounds like some of the "players" are trying to influence opinion here in setting unrealistic expectations so the final number will be disappointing insuring further dollar selling

SBN Sure-fire 13:00 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
market rumors, NFP 250+k

china qq 12:59 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
honolulu Byron ..confirmed now..?.. already broke 1.3310.. last chance to buy eur tonite.. might... sl 1.3290

SG Kan 12:56 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty
What' your call on USD/EUR before the NFP. TIA

china qq 12:56 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
believe computer.. this machine.. can struggle with my brain... i believe the machine tells me ... hehe..smile ...

oslo oskar 12:54 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Lndn Frnd 12:42 GMT

he finds hiumself amusing in his obfuscations

honolulu Byron 12:54 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
china qq 12:51 // Hourly chart, TL level around ~1.3310

china qq 12:53 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
short cable?? omg.. my system just told .. should long cable.. at this level.. bolling band open field already.. in 1 hour chart

Makassar Alimin 12:52 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
on very short term momentum basis, dollar has the advantage, so one would hope that this momentum carries through, however, given the recent bigger momentum of selling dollar, one should be very cautious of going long usd since yesterday's bullish momentum might just provide chance and room to reload short dollar positions for the resumption of the next dollar selling wave, there is no doubt NFP would be the trigger today, if in doubt stay out or play small initially

expect some shaking up in both directions before the real move sets in, need to be extra alert to play the market reaction later

china qq 12:52 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
my 1 hour chart confirmed this information.. alert me to buy eur now.. i brought 1.3300.. first target 1.3330 .now locking 5pips profits..

Paris MAXX 12:51 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
fwiw Went short small cable at 1.9270...will keep it through the figures...

china qq 12:51 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
honolulu Byron 12:48 ..// what's ur time zone of ur trendline.. 1 hour or daily chart???

Paris MAXX 12:49 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
China..brave infron of the number...good luck

orlando jcr 12:49 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
China,

I bought, but out at quick +5 before NFP.
Take your profit and be flat.

honolulu Byron 12:48 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
china qq 12:46 // i would wait till trendline level break over to confirm a buy.

china qq 12:46 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
brought @1.3300..anyone agree with me.. my system confirmed this up..first1.3330 target ..anyone?

London Zappy 12:44 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
//Lndn Frnd
He is in training to take over from Greenspan!

Roumeli anka 12:44 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
LOL... van Gecko. In other words " post coitum onme animal tristis est ".

Lndn Frnd 12:42 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
again i cannot understand Mr. VAGUE Gecko need explanation always

Calabash TarHeel 12:42 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 12:30 GMT December 3, 2004
Don't feel alone. did the same here, closed euro/$ and aud/$ shorts a couple hrs ago. Let the dust clear and look to enter again.
Always glad to see your posts. Love to see them more often.
Good Luck

van Gecko 12:38 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   

some NFP combinations for DBB members to crunch;

good NFP+MIB blasts with spike=No Fun Party
bad NFP+MIB absorbing any spike=No Fun Party
MIB blasts+DBB SAR=2xNo Fun Party
therefore,
NFP+MIB=DBB No Fun Party ?


honolulu Byron 12:34 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
my chart shows EURUSD hourly critical level around 1.3310:

http://fxtradercenter.com/ftopict-86.html

china qq 12:31 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
system confirmed this information.. i am buying..

china qq 12:30 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
is it right time to buy eur now??

ICT ML 12:30 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
looks like everyone waited for the last hour to cover $$$ longs going into the NFP. Would have liked to stay short cable but can't risk that this time around after getting smacked last Friday on it just being long.

dsm rl 12:28 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
I've heard of a platform that garauntees stops & limits and executes market orders instantly w/o slippage. Spread is typical, but there is additional 1 1/4 pip fee. Any thoughts? THKS

dc CB 12:28 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
think that Canadian number scared some dollar bulls. shades of bad US number?

dc fxq 12:22 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Employment up 4.6 - on the low side

Lisbon tutu 12:21 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   

anyone from DBL here??

ICT ML 12:06 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Thanks much fxq .......shuld be good for maybe 1.2050-70 this run then if gets past 1.2000.....I hope anyway.

LA Ty 12:05 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas < oh, it varies? I thought there was a common ground.

Los Angeles ss 12:04 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
ML -- CAD 4.6% growth, headline rises to 7.3%

dc fxq 12:04 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Canadian unemployment rate +0.2% to 7.3% from 7.1%

Dallas Mauricio 12:04 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Why don't you ask your broker?!

LA Ty 12:02 GMT December 3, 2004
again guys...what kind of price movement causes slippage or an UNgauranteed stop order? 100 pips and over ?

ICT ML 12:03 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
anyone catch teh Cad data released? I missed it an need to know if my long $CAD is being front run or the data is really $$$+......

LA Ty 12:02 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
again guys...what kind of price movement causes slippage or an UNgauranteed stop order? 100 pips and over ?

gold coast martin 11:59 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Apart from sippage during volatile Data time some platforms conveniently "freeze" or the ltency{speed of the feed} slows down to prevent automatic executions.....g/t

LA Ty 11:57 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Canuck... yeah I see gaps but just wanted the technical defintion. Thanks.

Philadelphia Caba 11:57 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP, will you be flat ahead of NFP?

Halifax CB 11:55 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
LA TY - A gap only happens when you have your data blocked off into discrete time periods. In that case if the minimum value of one period exceeds the maximum value of the preceeding period (in an up market, or the reverse for down markets), you get a discontinuity in the graphs. The sise of the gap, and the time periods they occur on, are useful gauges for market sentiment. If you have charts handy, there's a decent size one on the EURUSD a couple of weeks ago. GL/GT

Dallas Mauricio 11:54 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
13:30 GMT

KL KL 11:41 GMT December 3, 2004
is NFP due in about 2 hours...can someone confirm??



Gen dk 11:52 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas Mauricio 11:52 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Same here.

Budapest Daniel 11:35 GMT December 3, 2004
Szeri, that is not the best way to operate... Been there done that, lost a few hundred pips all in all with that method

LA Ty 11:45 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
what technically is a "GAP" and "2 figure movement" ?

Budapest Szeri 11:42 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Daniel - I'm looking for the optimal solution to (probably) profit the volatility... Maybe an open med.term position with more than 100 pips profit already. :)


Budapest Daniel 11:35 GMT December 3, 2004
Szeri, that is not the best way to operate... Been there done that, lost a few hundred pips all in all with that method

SanFrancisco tg 11:42 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Turned out my 6:25 (GVI) gut check for 1535 +/- $chf to retrace happened to transpire with luck. Feeling upside for CAD is now also limited headed into NFP and would be surprised to see it hold the figure. Original estimate of ceiling for today has been 1980. AUD downside for the day is all but caput, so only real goodies I see are to the upside from here (7700 or so). Upside for $Yen also pretty limited from with 103.80 +/- estimated to cap it unless something rocks the boat.

KL KL 11:41 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
is NFP due in about 2 hours...can someone confirm??

LA Ty 11:37 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
so again guys...what kind of price movement causes slippage or an UNgauranteed stop order? 100 pips and over ?

Budapest Daniel 11:35 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Szeri, that is not the best way to operate... Been there done that, lost a few hundred pips all in all with that method

Budapest Szeri 11:33 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP - So You think that the best way is to wait (without open position) until volatility gets lower...?

Philadelphia Caba 11:33 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 11:31 GMT December 3, 2004

Open @1.5286, closed @1.5264 (+22)

dc CB 11:32 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
CAD is first up this morning. Nov. Employment at 12:00gmt - 7:00est. Last 34.3K, expect 30K...7.1%, unch.

FYI: Dallas Mauricio 10:56 GMT December 3, 2004
The technical definition of a Stop Order is that it becomes a Limit Order when the Stop Price is hit.

A Stop order when the price is hit becomes a Market Order - which in a fast market is akin to wearing a kick-me sign on your back. A Stop/Limit order fits your definition.

Dallas GEP 11:31 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
CABA eur/chf is trading at 1.5258, I thougfht you got in at 1.5287?????

London Zappy 11:30 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
//Makassar Alimin 10:47
I did a straddle last NFP, and plan to do it again.
Any Ideas on strike prices?
BTW I use IG for this, been with 'em for over 15 years

Dallas GEP 11:30 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
TY....I corrected myself earlier FFFXXCCMM is the same platform as RREEFFCCOO

Philadelphia Caba 11:29 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 11:06 GMT December 3, 2004
If SOMEONE knows CABA , WAKE him up and get him to close that EUR/CHF short BEFORE NFP. He is 27 pips up. I helped getting him in but I can't get him out!!!! LOL

GEP, just woke up and closed it +22 pips, good call again, thanks....yep NFP..fireworks..staying flat (lost lots of pips this week...already..)

Dallas GEP 11:28 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
One guy says I will sell you bananas for 1.00 a pound and the other says I will sell you bananas for 2.00 a pound. Great you say I will take a pound from you @ 1.00 but then SUDDENLY the first guy says "Well I would sell them to you at 1.00 IF I had them, I don't have them anymore, if you want them NOW I will buy them from my competition and then sell them to you for 2.00!!!" This is exactly how currency orders are filled at current MARKET price.

LA Ty 11:23 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
sorry, I'm using FireFox not Internet Explorer so my window is probably different :)

LA Ty 11:20 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS> I use both R E F C O & G F T . . . the platforms are not the same. What are you talking about?

Calabash TarHeel 11:19 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty 11:15 GMT December 3, 2004
Fwiw: If the NFP figures are 100k above or below expectations the price spikes will be seen in seconds not minutes. Imho.
Good Luck

Dallas GEP 11:19 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
TY YEP .....EXACTLY Dallas M

Dallas Mauricio 11:18 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
There is no way to quantify the number. Just accept it 7 trade accordingly.

LA Ty 11:15 GMT December 3, 2004
Dallas> What kind of price movement will cause slippage? 80 pip candles? 100 ?

Budapest Szeri 11:17 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP - what's your opinion about placing an entry order before NFP at ~20 pips from prompt above (longing USD) with 2-3 pips (trailing) s/l...?

YES, That is ONE platform I am trading at

manila stubbs 11:17 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 11:09 GMT December 3, 2004

if gbp appreciates against US$, but eur not as much, then it means gbp is also appreciating against eur, which means eurgbp down.

LA Ty 11:16 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
and what kind of price movement will cause the market to GAP?
100 pips?

Dallas GEP 11:16 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
TY they share same platform with that company that is listed in 3rd ICON to the left of this screen

LA Ty 11:15 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
oic

LA Ty 11:15 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas> What kind of price movement will cause slippage? 80 pip candles? 100 ?

Dallas GEP 11:15 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
ANYTHING that causes the market to GAP. ANYTHING

Dallas GEP 11:13 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
YES, That is ONE platform I am trading at

london paul 11:11 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
On opening a controlled risk bet with IG you pay approx 8 pip spread (instead of regular 4 pip) on dlr majors. The guarenteed stop must be a minimum of 3 x opening spread so if dlr swiss is 1.1480 middle and you buy dlrs its going to be 1.1488. Your guarenteed stop must be min of 3 x spread ie 24 pips so 1.1464.

Budapest Szeri 11:11 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP - Are You trading at censored or censored too...? :)

WARNING: 12/3 8:30 am EST. execution speed &
certainty CANNOT be guaranteed. With increased
activity phones will be busy and system may
be slow.

Just got this. Most of us are, BEWARE!!!!

LA Ty 11:11 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
so is it just econ announcements or ANY risk of huge price movement like even Central Bank intervention?

LA Ty 11:11 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS> I got that same msg from censored LOL

LA Ty 11:10 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
"4th icon" ? what's that?

Dallas Mauricio 11:09 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
I overslept yesterday and missed GBP moves. I hate when I do this.

Dallas GEP 11:06 GMT December 3, 2004
If SOMEONE knows CABA , WAKE him up and get him to close that EUR/CHF short BEFORE NFP. He is 27 pips up. I helped getting him in but I can't get him out!!!! LOL

Los Angeles ss 11:09 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Gep, in your experience does cable always track opposite of EURGBP?

Dallas GEP 11:08 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
WARNING: 12/3 8:30 am EST. execution speed &
certainty CANNOT be guaranteed. With increased
activity phones will be busy and system may
be slow.

Just got this. Most of us are, BEWARE!!!!

Dallas GEP 11:06 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
If SOMEONE knows CABA , WAKE him up and get him to close that EUR/CHF short BEFORE NFP. He is 27 pips up. I helped getting him in but I can't get him out!!!! LOL

SA Pat 11:05 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
TY
Supposedly the 4th icon from the top on your left do guarantee no slippage.
But anyone who guarantees anything in this business is full of it.
fwiw....gt

Gold Coast TW 11:05 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
london paul 11:01 GMT December 3

Thats right. igforex.com / igindex.com will guarrantee ANY price movement. I use them for payrolls ALL the time.

LA Ty 11:04 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
so basically a 100 pip candle would not have an guaranteed stop ?

LA Ty 11:02 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
I always have a policy of not trading econ announcements anyway, but yeah thats pretty scary...

Dallas GEP 11:02 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
PERFECT Tarheel YES....this is happening all the TIME...

london paul 11:01 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Its actually called IG INdex and its spread betting and your talking of what they call a controlled risk bet with guarenteed stops. As you say you pay larger spread to open trade but guarenteed stop.

Dallas Mauricio 11:01 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
The bottom line is that brokers will do what is best for THEIR bottom line.

LA Ty 11:00 GMT December 3, 2004
so what about CB intervention. Would be stop be honored then because its not an econ announcement? What price movement do brokers usually NOT guarantee stops?

Dallas GEP 11:01 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
YES Stubbs, it has happened to me on 4 different platforms

Calabash TarHeel 11:01 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 10:53 GMT December 3, 2004
Fwiw: Might be worth mentioning that the platforms have a habit of stop hunting 60/70 pips in both directions just prior to NFP data release.
Good Luck.

LA Ty 11:01 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
like what size candle would cause a slip?

LA Ty 11:00 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
so what about CB intervention. Would be stop be honored then because its not an econ announcement? What price movement do brokers usually NOT guarantee stops?

Dallas Mauricio 10:59 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
It has happened to me the last 3 NFP reports with 2 different brokers. I will be flat before the report today.

manila stubbs 10:53 GMT December 3, 2004
Dallas GEP 10:50 GMT December 3, 2004
you've really experienced this? thats a scary thought. ive never had this happen to me before. knock on wood.

Gold Coast TW 10:59 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
I know of one that honours stops even if there is a 2 figure movement in 1 second. It is IGforex but you pay a few extra pips spread for it and the minimum stop is 21

Dallas Mauricio 10:56 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Not any more.

LA Ty 10:55 GMT December 3, 2004
do some brokers guarantee stops 100% of the time?

Dallas Mauricio 10:56 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
The technical definition of a Stop Order is that it becomes a Limit Order when the Stop Price is hit. A broker will attempt to fill at the "best available price". They are not obligated to fill it at the stop price.

LA Ty 10:55 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
IVT> Yes, I see that msg all the time from my broker. LOL Like all today.

LA Ty 10:55 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
do some brokers guarantee stops 100% of the time?

ICT ML 10:55 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
TY, anymore our broker gives us pop up mesages every hour or so warning us that in so many words they reserve the right to screw us royally on orders placed after 8:30 EST today......due to unpredictable market reaction etc.....to NFP.

LA Ty 10:54 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
in that case, how do you know your stop can be honored at all then? I mean what kind of price movement usually cases slippage? A candle over 100 pips?

manila stubbs 10:53 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 10:50 GMT December 3, 2004
you've really experienced this? thats a scary thought. ive never had this happen to me before. knock on wood.

Dallas GEP 10:53 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Most will NOT TY....ypu will be slipped

Dallas Mauricio 10:53 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
YES! Happens all the time.

LA Ty 10:51 GMT December 3, 2004
Can a broker not honor or guarantee stop loss order during a major announcement like NFP? Is that what you're saying? Because the volatility might cause the stop to slip?



Dallas GEP 10:52 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
3280 I mean!!! 3240 stop market hits 3180

LA Ty 10:51 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Can a broker not honor or guarantee stop loss order during a major announcement like NFP? Is that what you're saying? Because the volatility might cause the stop to slip?

Dallas GEP 10:50 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
TY, let's say you LONG euro at 1.1380 prior to data and your stop is at 1.1350. NFP is annouced at 325K and eur/usd drops IMMEDIATELY to 1.1280, Your stop probably won't be filled at 1.1350 but at first availble markey price which just might be 1.1310 SEE??? That is called SLIPPAGE

Makassar Alimin 10:47 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
B747,

i would like to see more usd strength but there is also a risk of it being sold off big time 50/50 today i guess, still busy getting my mind tuned in and getting ready for the party, i am also thinking of straddling

anyway, will jump in 5-10 minutes before the data, will play the euro and gbp tonite, how about you? you are already in the usd bull train aren't you?

Hong Kong Qindex 10:47 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dallas GEP 10:46 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
BEfore NFP I mean!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 10:45 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
OK in at 1486 in CHF now LONG I will close this at a LOSS EVEN if it doesn't hit my 15 pip stop

LA Ty 10:45 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
"Don't expect stops to be honored, they will be slipped I assure you." - - what does that mean?

Dallas GEP 10:42 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
For those that DON't know, NFP has been the most market moving data BY FAR, 200K is expected but if we have 100K deviation from 200K that is HUGE, Don't expect stops to be honored, they will be slipped I assure you. 13:30 GMT ANY possies entered NOW I would suggest you close before NFP I personally EXPECT the numbet to be 325K and with OIL declining that could be worth 150 pips to the USD side

van Gecko 10:41 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
stubbs.. thank you for your view.. 1.1830/1.2850 may be seen in quick order with some nice 2 way plays to finish off the year.. her majesty gbp has a habit of overshooting & reversing quickly.. the blow-off up at 1.9430 may be the cap for her Highness & the Conti twins for the year..
gl

gold coast martin 10:40 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 10:34 GMT December 3, 2004
Get yourself another type of squeeze to fill in your rest time...better than orange or lemon squash.....g/t

Hong Kong B747 10:37 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Hi alimin, which train you are travelling with?

tia and gt

KL KL 10:34 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd 1.9228 at 35 +7...waited long enough for the squeeze....going for an orange squash instead..rest time

Hong Kong B747 10:33 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
there only one thing that China wants more than worldwide exports, that is advanced arms devolopment/import.
will USA cause arms prices to sky rocket and by that will bring their deficit down?

example: it is like a China people paying for real Gucci watches $K's when they can buy the copy for $3 just outside the Gucci shop.

gt all

manila stubbs 10:32 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
or perhaps just a small lomg. here goes...

Makassar Alimin 10:31 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Goody, price action is coiling coiling and coiling, sign of big fireworks to come, jump on the right train and make lots of money tonight, good luck guys

manila stubbs 10:30 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
its good to know you share my views gep, but although i admire your precision in daytrading, i exercise as skillfully as you do, therefore i would rather position trade with fairly large SL's. i guess i will wait until nfp...

Dallas GEP 10:23 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Stubbs...YES I agree completely Will take CHF long from 1490 with 15 pip stop.....OUT before NFP tho

manila stubbs 10:18 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 10:09 GMT December 3, 2004

im thinking about longing $chf, but for the short run only - targetting 1.1820. from there i will start collecting shorts again - i think the 1.1000 level will be challenged by early 2005, possibly even breached. same with the euro - im looking for a bottom at 1.2850, if this is indeed the long-awaited correction. what are your views with gbp$? TIA

NJ RT 10:12 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP thnx

Hong Kong B747 10:10 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
floating the YUAN will cost china USD 120B-150B within the first year of doing that; will they go for that?

many thanks in advance for your comments and ideas for this issue.

gt all

van Gecko 10:09 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
manila stubbs 09:44.. below 1.1250.. imo anything below 1.13 is money in the bank for S/M/L term players..
will be please to see your views..

Dallas GEP 10:03 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
RT same as yen pairs VERY range bound. SS regrading GBP depends ALOT on NFP numbers. I would sat after this range breaks, it will PROBABLY break down some more assuming decent NFP number

Paris MAXX 10:02 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
ss ... down...this vafternoon

JHB CDB 10:01 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP, that is my signal for my Coffee break

Los Angeles ss 09:59 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Gep, where do you see cable moving from this 1.9220 to 1.9240 range, up or down from here in the short term?

LA Ty 09:59 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
That's what I was wondering because not too many ppl can trade crude LOL !

Dallas GEP 09:58 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
CDB both eur/jpy and usd/jpy have been consolidating for 7 hours or so, Probablt won't move much until data

Gen dk 09:57 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Paris MAXX 09:55 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
No charts amigo ..just gut feelings!

LA Ty 09:50 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
MAXX> what charts you using for Crude? Charts with your broker or 3rd party charts?

Dallas GEP 09:49 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Wish CABA would wake up and TP on that eur/chf short, he is +25 up LOL

mano lahore 09:48 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
plz tell me wat are the move expected on coming payroll data of EUR/USD

Paris MAXX 09:48 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Hi LA..i did ok...long cable from 1.9220 will be slightly short into the figures later...still long of crude oil...looking to cut above 44

KL KL 09:46 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
long gbpusd 1.9228....sl 7 below...maybe a short squeeze up then a few more both ways until data....have to try the sentiments

Auckland pnm 09:44 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
and of course i mean 29 Nov not 29 Dec in my previous post

manila stubbs 09:44 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 09:39 GMT December 3, 2004

i concur with your view, but at what level, if breached, will negate this analysis?

LA Ty 09:43 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
hey MAXX, did you enjoy the flat day ? LOL

Paris MAXX 09:40 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Hi LA

van Gecko 09:39 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
"08:27 GMT December 1, 2004
the little dollar setting up for a 2 figure blast to start the month.."


another blast up to 1.1630 to end the week with a bang..
should some of those DBB members start doing SAR.. 1.1830 is within max weekly ATR..
Cheerios..


LA Ty 09:36 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Good morning...

Auckland pnm 09:35 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
raden
your eur/usd prediction of 29 Dec looks reasonably accurate

Toronto YV 09:34 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
UK CIPS 56.7

Hong Kong Qindex 09:32 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Los Angeles ss 09:31 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
UK data?

praga jan 09:26 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
may i ask your opinion about the leverage you use?i consider almost impossible to make profits constantly on fx using a leverage of 0.5,1,or even 2%.it happened to me many times to forecast correctly the next trend but to be stopped out.

Hong Kong B747 09:24 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
added GBP/JPY short, working without s/l until FEB/05
will add a short every 72pips if seen

gt all

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 09:21 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
I have many chart forcast there.maybe can help you in your decision. you can visit there if you want. cannot draw here.

"honolulu Byron 07:46 GMT December 3, 2004
Your view on kiwi chart is appreciated :) TIA

http://fxtradercenter.com/ftopict-79.html"


Dallas Mauricio 09:19 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GBP economic data in 10 minutes.

Los Angeles ss 09:17 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Hello Raden!

Hong Kong Qindex 09:14 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Roumeli anka 09:01 GMT - All those levels are good for the next few days. It doesn't mean the market will hit everyone of them. Today is Friday and we have to concentrate on the weekly cycle. The relative positions of those key quantized levels in weekly, 10-day and 44-day cycle are important references.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 09:13 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
hello my friends.. I hope you are ok.

Roumeli anka 09:01 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
today

Roumeli anka 09:01 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Hi Qindex. Are your levels still in time for doday ?

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/charts/contrarian/qindex.gif

KL KL 08:55 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd again at 1.9223 out 1.19194 +29...

Reshort again higher...in 1.9236 sl 7 above out 30 +6...i am the nervous nellies

JHB CDB 08:48 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
I currently have short on JPY/USD, short term, just not having the momentum. What is your views? GEP and M

Dallas Mauricio 08:40 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Good morning JHB CDB. I hoe that you have a great day!

JHB CDB 08:37 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Good morning Dallas GEP & M

GL & GT

Hong Kong Qindex 08:35 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dallas Mauricio 08:31 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Good day everyone. Let's rock & roll today. I missed yesterday's trading & was womdering if any specific news causes cable to drop 100 pips in 5 minutes @ 18:50 GMT? TIA

GL everyone.

Tallinn viies 08:27 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!
buying the euro strategy still valid.
keeping stop and reverse down at 1,3219.
first resistance at 1,3295/00.
next one at 1,3355/60
we may see 1,3485/90 today if NFP comes out like most of the times lately - lower than forcasted
good trades

sgp sp 08:14 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
snk, invitation sent....

ks snk 08:09 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
>>honolulu Byron 07:46 GMT December 3, 2004

Good evening.
Byron, contact me when u will be online.

GL & GT

Hong Kong Qindex 07:53 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

honolulu Byron 07:46 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Your view on kiwi chart is appreciated :) TIA

http://fxtradercenter.com/ftopict-79.html

NJ RT 07:37 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
why so quiet here today ???

KL KL 07:33 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd short at 1.9206 + 16 out eurusd at 66 from 82 +16...must be quick, very quick today..no waiting or cute plays.. The boys are around...i feel it like Legalos....

NJ RT 07:27 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP : what's your view in EUR/USD? Thnx

Hong Kong Qindex 07:26 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Singapore 07:21 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 06:26 GMT December 3, 2004
nice fill from 1.9430 you got the top. how do you know when the flow turns?
OK! KENNY I hear you

HOUSTON KENNY 07:17 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
BUY EURO $

KL KL 07:06 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
short eurusd 1.3282 sl 10 above as usual

KL KL 07:04 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd at 1.9222

lax-lgb SNP 06:55 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
aud$ still within 0.7775-0.7731
gbp$ needs to crawl above 1.9238 to launch past 1.9331

looks like USD makes a comeback by this fireworks friday close

KL KL 06:43 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd long -5 at 17 .. maybe wants to test lows again...wait again

KL KL 06:32 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd at 1.9237 out at 22 +15 SAR and long here sl 7 below...still ranging I think...have to see with some risk

melbourne farmacia 06:26 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Andy – got it thanks. Will respond this weekend.

KL – filled & riding until flow turns.

Dallas GEP 06:11 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Closed eur/jpy 137.35 +15 and out

KL KL 06:10 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, no worries - I took some shorts and longs...all the way down...I probably would not have heard you either....LOL. Did you take some possie yesterday at 1.9430? Still riding it? I am looking to enter near 1.9180 level depending on the price action there....again NFP will be average IMHO and we will see GRAVY Train riding both ways...I hope to get on board on the right station today heading the right direction.

Kamensk Andy 06:06 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 05:29 - your shout was succesfully accepted yesterday, thank for that. Did you get my mail?

HOUSTON KENNY 06:02 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
SHORTING $CHF HERE

prague jv 06:01 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Offering my view on couple ccy.
adjusted revers positions levels for med. term are (imho);

Aud/0.7838
Eur /0.6975
/136.19
/1.3315
Gbp/1.9050
Usd /102.95

Where above level long and belowe short poss. Do not have Aud short in , looking for long . gl.

Dallas GEP 05:59 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
137.20 long on eur/jpy stp 137.06 137.48 TP

Bris th 05:46 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Bris th 05:28 GMT December 3, 2004
Went long $chf yesterday 1.1387 .Just added more 1.1515 looking for 1.16+

gold coast martin 05:44 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 11:53 GMT December 2, 2004
After what we had in the last 2-3 days on the gbp,there is nothing that knees-up mother brown can say or shows us that can move the gbp...if anything we may be looking at 191.75 levels again in the medium term......g/t

above post on pound still applies....depending on your version of medium term..mine is 7 days...but i guess it it has come quicker than i thought....g/t

SanFrancisco tg 05:32 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Just estimating at the moment, AUD approaching 7720 increases risk/reward for longs, as does Pound approaching the figure very near term in my view as long as the recent sessions selling pressure does not sustain.

melbourne farmacia 05:29 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
KL – forgot to shout loud last night regarding that 1.9430 area… Intraday, need to watch 1.9184 going into eurozone.

SanFrancisco tg 05:14 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP, I'll keep an eye on it. Problem is $chf is getting bids right now but there's been no significant retracement for hours so I have decided to wait until we get a good pull back concluded before going long.

GDP and AUD should be bid sometime within next hours and have lots of upside potential. Could get "juked" of course but I'll take pips quickly if necessary and hold out to re-enter long again after.

$cad is still short at the moment and has plenty of downside left. Eur also right in the middle of pressures so could do anything.

KL KL 05:06 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP, oh no...at these slow hours 3 pip...come london, new york...goes to 5-7 sometimes....they know how to make money!!

Dallas GEP 05:00 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
YES TG, I agree....watch 1.1492 usd/chf ....buyers THERE

Dallas GEP 04:59 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Thx KL, EXCELLENT platform you have, spread must be only 1-2 pips!!! Hampered somewhat by 4 pip spread on GBP but can catch feed going the wrong way sometimes so i can get 1-2 myself but it is harder work!!! LOL

SanFrancisco tg 04:56 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
In the same MOF flavor of my last post, my next best risk/reward moves I see coming up considering BOJ are $cad and $chf longs. Been offered in asia but matter of time before they are bid.

LA Fxnew 04:51 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
well .. will there be a non-payroll news tomorrow?

KL KL 04:49 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP - Offer price

SanFrancisco tg 04:44 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
jf - Thanks much for that 4:04. I'm not comfortable with south of 102 either and have no trouble bucking the majority of analysts. If it shoots under 102 I may be wrong but there is a point where risk aversion is the responsible position. I'm only going long $long from here out while down here and leaving a trailing limit above market on almost all trades I think could be affected in other pairs.

Dallas GEP 04:33 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
YES KL, and GBP is particularly dangerous so TP QUICKLY as you are doing is best. I like to play YEN pairs BETTER in Asian session. When you went LONG on GBP earlier @ 1.9218 was that the BID price at the time?????

Dallas GEP 04:30 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Took +10 on eur/jpy. Watch all yen pairs specifically eur/jpy and usd/jpy moving in unison. NOTE that as mentioned before the EU WILL NOT be happy if this eur/jpy gets much higher than the 137.50-138.00 area.

KL KL 04:27 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Why bother covered the remaining gbpusd at 1.9224 + 6 on this lot...flat now...will long near where I long previously

Dallas GEP 04:20 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
137.50 short on EUR/JPY stp 137.65 TP 137.25

prague jv 04:19 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
that is true , if oil comes down . The trick here is , that it will not . There are still meny reasn way it will not come down .

KL KL 04:18 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP did you catch some gbpusd...last few minutes...I caught a bit more...at the same level and covered it again 2/3 at 1.9228..+10 so I am keeping the other bit move sl to 1.9216 and reduce my margin from 85 back to 20. Today can be a scary and dangerous and hopefully true trading day for me!!

Sydney Ge11Ja 04:11 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Sorry I dont understand your point about commodities and yen move (ie down) should be yen negative? Isnt Japan a large oil importer thus a fall in price would be good?

prague jv 04:06 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Good afternoon JF , good to see you .
It wud be some consern for european , if euro was about to make new hights on jpy and across board , but they might to tolerate it more , if eur/gbp and eur/usd stays the same or even come down a bit more .
For now , oil and other commodity movment will be yen negative ( speculation and other reasn ) and I am looking for specific jpy movment at present .

Syd 04:05 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
tk jf sorry didnt see your post, still long Aud from way back.

tk jf 04:04 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
tg- tonnes of clients all bought usdyen last 2-3 days even though mkt went lower so will be plenty of offers when this market goes bid - personally i dont see how the boj can let usdyen fall below 102 - u dont kill the one part of your economy thats performing and no matter how fast they say they advance technology etc its a people country here not like usa- so doubt they can afford a 100 or below and of course with no immediate china move it makes sense to see 102-105 - we need china to really push usdyen lower w/o that its not likely despite all the analysts views--- imo anyway

houston st 04:03 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   

GEP -- thx...think I'll stand aside and get a good night's sleep for a change...good trades...

KL KL 04:01 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP, No they are the offer price....appeared less than 1 sec...been hovering at 1.9219 for some time. So I figured if the bears are so strong it should go but did not.

Syd 04:01 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo trader says deteriorating sentiment on loss of technical momentum yesterday caused silver to be cut back , firming USD, falling gold and oil, plus sharp retreat in base metals, which silver tends to track given its industrial applications. the fact recent buying had no fundamental basis and traders not surprised some speculators bailing out

tk jf 04:00 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
jv - commodity currencies have so much factored into the existing prices that good news will be discounted quickly while bad news will be reacted to much more aggressively - last few days is not a good example as they had moved agst what the general usd sentiment was but think with more time the market will balance out

SanFrancisco tg 03:57 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for your input jf, generally thinking much of the same. On a session to session basis downside strikes have to be limited.

tk jf 03:55 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
tk-im email

Dallas GEP 03:53 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
ST, best timeframe for eur/gbp is 2 hour chart and that tells us 6916 to 6879 range which is kind of where it has been last few days.

Limbang(MAS) Bagus 03:51 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
How can I calculate the spot rate for a particular pair from the spread? Or is there any websites where I can find the spot rates? My bank seems to be quoating always unfavorable rates. Please help as I am new in FX.

houston st 03:47 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   

GEP -- any thoughts on eur/gbp from current level...thinking higher from here short-term...gl/gt.

tk jf 03:45 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
jv - usdyen maybe able to trade 102-105 and move euryen higher but if that happens tend to think eur will end up sliding a little too because it maybe a usd move and not a specific yen movement - if euryen were to rise to 140 say i think europeans wud be considerably upset

SanFrancisco tg 03:42 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
MOF verbal content has been very strong regarding intervention should the pair dip too forcefully. But $yen has been in a nice session oriented swing upward. Unfortunately the next round of trading must be on the short side either later in this session or in one of the next sessions. My sense is even though the verbals have been strong, the MOF has no cause to physically intervene unless a resounding dip should occur. 102 has already been tested without intervention but held due to the spectre so that as it approaches the figure. I am hoping the pace rather than the levels are the big concern.

tk jf 03:32 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
syd what you holding now ?

Philadelphia Caba 03:27 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Okay GEP, left short eurchf over night, now bedtime. See you tomorrow! GL> everyone!

Dallas GEP 03:20 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
KL, just to clarify you are long on GBP when BID price hit 1.9218 right or OR is 1.9218 the ASK price where you entered???

hk MA 03:20 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Any 'forexperts'out there forecast AUD/USD by mid next week?

Philadelphia Caba 03:17 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP, I'll send you email.

KL KL 03:17 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
in gbpusd long 1.9218..sl 10 below. Just to take a position for a quick pop in the early London session and then back to around this 1.9250 area

Dallas GEP 03:00 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Sure....dallasgep10 handle using yahoo.com will work tho!!! LOL BTE eur/chf pretty nice short @ 1.5287 with stop around 1.5320 should work pretty well

Philadelphia Caba 02:43 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP, can I ask Jay for your e-mail? I'm newbie, in Forex for about 6 months and sometimes need more help..so if you don't mine...Thanks.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:39 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Crude Oil : The following is still valid :-


Hong Kong Qindex 23:37 GMT November 15, 2004
Crude Oil (Dec) : Heading Towards 40.65?


Melbourne Qindex 02:50 GMT November 4, 2004
Crude Oil (Dec) : The current expected trading range is 48.28 - 55.91 and the mid-point reference is 52.09. If the market retreats and penetrates through the key quantized level at 48.28, it has a potential to go all the way to 40.65. A projected resistant barrier is located at 62.97 - 63.53.


... // 40.65* - 44.46 - (48.28)* - 52.09 - 55.91* - 59.72 - 63.53* // ...



Ldn 02:35 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Strategic Energy and Economic Research's Mike Lynch says "the bearish ship has come in with many oil market players turning bearish, saying $40/bbl a likely target; that's as U.S. crude stocks have passed levels of a year ago, when prices were around $30, with heating oil stocks likely to keep growing.We're going to see a loss of the speculative premium"; but adds OPEC won't tolerate rapid drop - Saudis like oil near $35 but get "nervous when prices fall too fast."

Hong Kong Qindex 02:34 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is positioning at 1.3279. It is likely that the market will vibrate around 1.3279 in the Asian session. The positions of my current 10-day and 44-day key quantized level will be used as a reference for day trader and position trader respectively in case there is an excessive volatile market movement today. If you have no access to my page, send an e-mail to Jay at [email protected] and he would arrage it as soon as possible. The first 2 weeks are free and there is no oligation.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:24 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


Syd 02:23 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
The governor of the People's Bank of China, Zhou Xiaochuan, doesn't believe the country is facing a high risk of financial crisis, "at present, there isn't a high risk of financial crisis in our country," Zhou was cited as saying . He made the comments on the sidelines of an economic conference when asked by a reporter if the country could face a "major financial crisis." China is in the midst of restructuring its nonperforming-loan-plagued banking system as it prepares to fully open its financial sector to international competition at the end of 2006. Though Zhou's comments appear prominently in the newspaper, there has been scant market talk or concern about a financial crisis arising.He said though the burden of NPLs on commercial banks remains heavy, every year a large amount of bad assets is being written off, and corporate profits are improving. "The financial risk is clearly decreasing," Zhou was cited as saying. But he warned crises come without warning, and said China must always be on "high alert."

Financial News

OK SZ 02:21 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
look for a run towards 83.50 on the $.....see they are expecting 190k for jobs data, however expect it to be around 290-330k..gl, gt all

Philadelphia Caba 02:18 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP, closed little bit early @ 0.6897(+ 11) good call. Thanks.

prague jv 02:11 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Re . commodity ccy , you can start to buying them back .it is still usd positive but not for much longer . aud over 0.80 on its way .

Dallas GEP 02:01 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Ok CABA, did you TP on that eur/gbp short???

Ldn 01:59 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
The Commodity Bloc (AUD, CAD, NZD): Is The Party Over?
The Commodity Bloc (Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar) has benefited significantly over the past three years and more specifically over the past three months from soaring energy prices and high interest rates. The initial rally in oil prices boosted the profitability of many exporters located within the commodity bloc and hence helped to rally both the Australian and Canadian stock markets. However, the rally in oil prices has now taken a toll on foreign demand. The most recent GDP reports from Australia and Canada are suggesting that the party may be over for the commodity bloc. Especially since Australia and New Zealand are at the very end of their tightening cycles and although Canada is still expected to tighten rates, their bias is becoming increasingly neutral with the strong Canadian dollar hurting growth.

Ldn 01:58 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Australian consortium buys UK broadcast business
An Australian investment fund will spend more than $3 billion buying into the broadcast operations of UK communications company NTL Incorporated.NTL has announced a consortium led by the Macquarie Communications Infrastructure Group has agreed to buy its broadcast business for $1.27 billion pounds.The business includes tower site leasing and transmission.Its customers are mobile wireless operators, commercial television stations and UK police, fire and ambulance services.The deal is subject to regulatory approval and is expected to be completed early next year.
ABC news.

prague jv 01:58 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Japan need not to do any intrventions , market will take it there where jap. gov. wud like to have it . They did know it , thus there were not interventions when there was high speculation about it .
Soon we will see here failed attempts of trying to short yen crosses as we had usd longers . ( talking med and longer term ) gl , lets see

Hong Kong Qindex 01:47 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


KL KL 01:43 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
ok out at 1.9221 from 1.9243...+22...should have taken the 16 on offer....never mind +ve better than -ve...flat now. Looking at jap crosses to play now

Sydney 01:35 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Ashraf Laidi from MGF group expects non-farm payrolls to rise by as much as 290K-300K, well above the consensus forecast of 190-200K, while we see the unemployment rate slipping to 5.4% from 5.5%.

dc fxq 01:31 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
FWIW: for tomorrow's NFP number the range is +145 to +225 with the mdian at +195. My favored source is at the low end with a +180 est. (Briefing.com)

KL KL 01:20 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
jcr, g'day to you... but this is the game...at about the same time if you shorted gbpusd at 1.9438...and left it to run...the rest as they say is history...no one knows what tomorrow brings...just take the pips on offer and play it correctly and you may end up more than if you let it run....gl gt

prague jv 01:19 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
JPY has oversold short and med. term levels , but from longer term ( into 2005) is offering exellent opporynity to short jpy .
It will be the next forex theme , and other ccy will be only reflection on performance compared to jpy .
New long term ( dayly) cykle is allready started on gbp/jpy , which is currentli leading the others .

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 01:19 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
gl for this week everyone

tia:-)

Syd 01:16 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
In further evidence of continued Australian domestic demand, new auto sales rise 3.3% in November from October to record level for a November, according to Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries VFacts report.

Syd 01:11 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
According to IFR
Market Talk: Intel Repat Comments Could Be USD Supportive
someone mentioned this yesterday on GV

orlando jcr 01:08 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
KL,

Good day to you...
Did you notice that a few minutes after my SL last night on UDS/JPY long that it went on up to my TP.... GRRRR

Atl TJ 01:07 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
dc CB 01:04 GMT December 3, 2004
Yep. Its getting close. Even today my brother said he was thinking about getting on the $ train. Will be interesting to see what happens with tomorrows NFP. My prediction is that whatever the report says it will be Bullish USD.

dc CB 01:04 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Oh oh! They're discussing the falling dollar on the News Hour (PBS) Warning those Euro vacationers who've not yet turned in their flight tickets to expect an unwelcome suprise...merci!...er merd!

Not quite cab drivers talking plunging dollar....more like cab drinkers.

KL KL 00:44 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
fwiw I am still short gbpusd from 1.9243...its almost 5 hours now and I have locked in my 3 pips gain and planning to play this long term....I may be out next 5 minutes...LOL

prague jv 00:40 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
there seems to be high interbank activity at th moment .
ja nie viem co ty poviedal ,to mozno skusiat raz viace .Ti nemozes uviest meno brokera a offend tu celoveka , that is the rule .

Sydney 00:28 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia how did you guess just kidding sorry for the cockup couldnt seem to get the link right.

Ldn 00:27 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
ECB warns forex intervention an option as interest rates kept steady
LINK

melbourne farmacia 00:23 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Sydney - u on Ashraf's payroll ?

FloridA vv 00:22 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Yes sir there is quik answer: Te osly myslat zo wshistke mozhno chitat zo moge zarobyt penionzy.

wlkp marlon 00:19 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
I demand quick answer, because I think that forum is moderated too strong.

wlkp marlon 00:17 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Czy ktoś kto mnie rozumie może mi powiedzieć dlaczego te osły kasuja posty, które nie są po ich mysli?

dc fxq 00:15 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 23:36 GMT

Yes, it does sound that way. Worked in Boston lived in Hollis NH (50 mi nw) , then TMR and Eglington area of TO thrncr on to Northern VA.

wlkp marlon 00:13 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Why did u delete my post?

Sydney 00:10 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
You can also listen 'Audio' to that report from the Home Page , if you dont already know

Sydney 00:08 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
Dollar Edges up on Oil and Ahead of Payrolls by Ashraf LaidiLINK

Sydney 00:04 GMT December 3, 2004 Reply   
AUDIO FX ANALYSIS by Ashraf Laidi

 




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