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Forex Forum Archive for 12/04/2004
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RWB nyc 23:55 GMT December 4, 2004
RWB nyc 23:54 GMT December 4, 2004
Pete Petersen and Robert Ruben know of what they speak. For the record, I lean toward the conservative line, but Bob Rubin may be our best Treasury Secretary in decades. I put him on a par with Paul Volker,
dc fxq 21:31 GMT December 4, 2004
Pete Peterson, Robert Rubin and Paul Krugman
your inclusiion of those names sayts it all for me.
I won't bother to respond to your comeents in the future.
Juneau CAR 20:18 GMT December 4, 2004
PS: currencies of last resort are usually creditor nations not debtor nations. We used to be a huge creditor nation.
Juneau CAR 20:16 GMT December 4, 2004
dc, the fundamentals I am speaking of our not observable today. The fundamentals are the way the US is addressing its debt problem i.e. "not addressing it".
Bush is the first president to not veto one budget billll during his four years.
As far as the trade deficit goes no country on earth consumes anywhere near what we do per capita. Half the country has vehicles as large as mountains. Look at the US's consumption of oil per capita vs any other country!
As we import 60% fo our oil, the cheaper dollars will just increase the trade deficit. Canada has a budget surplus!!
Look at how huge our domestic deficit is and with two intractable wars (costing 150 billion a year)and 77 million baby boomers coming on line in just 3 years, and outsourcing manufacuring to china and services to India we cannot grow out fo our 8 BILLION domestic deficit. Plus we have billions and billions of unpaid corporate pension plans, soical security, etc the US will have to address.
No one on earth consumes as much as we do and does so by BORROWING other peoples money. Those dollars are starting to come back to the us where they will cause real havoc.
Last, the world is pulling out of our markets. More money is going into china than the US.
But believe what you will.
Very reputable guys like Pete Peterson, Robert Rubin and Paul Krugman have been warnign the US for over a year. Not too many people have as good an economic record as those three.
sorocaba 19:14 GMT December 4, 2004
Offer of soybean, cane sugar, coffee, fresh fruits, wet blue leather, woods. Animation movies.
HK [email protected] 17:41 GMT December 4, 2004
Short term traders have to put it in their mind, that except them, there is big cash money moving into Euro and others, for long term investments.
Today many will agree that Euro will climb above 1.5000, so ther is much more to earn( Mr. Bean too suggested 15% down more).
Strong pullbacks are hard to predict in mania_markets, and the long term money will not react to them too.
It is all the Q. of how many more investors, with how much money are still existing in the pipeline.
The idiotic thing is, that all are running to Euro because they heard it from others that "Euro is good" .
It is a Tech. game, and the fear_mania chart forming today (espes.on the weekly), and recently on the daily, may offer no support, if and when the market will reverse.
Euro crash with gold in the future will happen on Tech. basis and on simple a fundamental: That they will just be overly overvalued.
Meanwhile the upside is guaranteed, where when and if markets will go out of control, I will begin to worry for Euro around 1.43XX. (China may enter with a Reval. at that level)
I do not believe China is waiting for stable market conditions to Reval.
All CBs work together to strike on the fat funds.
On the chart DM_equivalent topped at Euro = 1.4577 in 1992
So that will be the attractor when prices will come near.
But my speculation is that a strong pull back will occur B4, prices will reach 1.4577 (1.43XX). And too it depends on the speed of the price rise.
Wish all good trade for the next week.
dc fxq 13:56 GMT December 4, 2004
Juneau CAR 07:56 GMT
I fundamentals WERE running the show EURUSD would be nowhere close to 1.3500!
saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088 12:27 GMT December 4, 2004
smile..and read carefully my last post about euro and usd/chf..
If euro is moving and meet 1.40888888 and Usd/chf stay close or few pips below 1.10 might is the confirm time 88,88% to jump of Euro train.
perrie como 12:07 GMT December 4, 2004
WASHINGTON (AFP) - The heads of the space agencies of the United States and China held talks for the first time but Washington said any cooperation on exploration could take place only after China addresses American proliferation concerns.
Juneau CAR 07:56 GMT December 4, 2004
Boy, real panic in the markets. World is realizing the US is in an economic trap. They do not want to get sucked down with the US.
The only thing that could help is a growing economy and that does not look likely.
I think the fundamentals are running the show now. I do not see how confidence is restored in the US's fiscal situation.
Makassar Alimin 07:49 GMT December 4, 2004
i dont think we are in for retracement yet, if we can stay above 1.34 for euro the whole monday, then i am looking for further gains towards 1.37/1.38 starting next week till end of year and play that range
above 1.40 cannot be ruled out either but that's too much if we see it this month, i'll save it till next year and if that is the case then will start building up short position
wellington, fl cso 03:05 GMT December 4, 2004
We will definitely see a sharp reversal sooner than later! 300-500 pips minimum.
SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 01:15 GMT December 4, 2004
1.3376 1.3524 EUR
1.1233 1.1399 CHF
0.7753 0.7865 AUD
1.1875 1.1991 CAD
1.9300 1.9534 GBP
101.55 102.69 JPY
BUY OR SELL
MAY WORK MAY MOT...for some pips
Wien GD 01:00 GMT December 4, 2004
quito_ecuador_valdez ... you expect the usd fundamentals which caused this big move ... will change within then next couple of days and weeks or a few month to such an extent?????
As someone posted earlier ... forget about the charts and the technicals and sit back ... "Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent ... Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe."
Imho this is a long overdue FA correction (simply because of the deficits) which takes place ++ a big sentiment shift away from the us (think about the reasons!) ... and imho, within the next decade you won't see eur sub 1.25 and gold sub 400 anymore!!! Forget it!
I'll save this snippet for future use!
03 dec, 2004
Martin (gold coast) are you there?! My bet against your eur 112!
btw: my guts are tellin me that you won't see sub 1.28 anymore ... but that's too much for me, although my guts are usually right!!! We'll see.
london cam 00:49 GMT December 4, 2004
Valdez, yep you make perfect sense. I follow your logic. However, I wouldn't be surprised if your expectations are not met. You'll know that the euro was launched primarily for political reasons. Europe want a slice of the reserve currency status cake and all the icing that goes with it. The US would be happy to see this threat destroyed. Maybe, that's why the US is doing nothing to stop the dollar from falling further. End result, European economy grinds to a halt, member countries loose faith in the union, eventually pulling out of the euro and the rest.... well you know.
Overly simplistic view I've put forward which ignores the rest of the forex world but anyhow, food for thought.
Off to bed, good weekend to all. catch up with you next week.
quito_ecuador_valdez 00:08 GMT December 4, 2004
Yahoo mail is down..can't do a thing 'til it's up y'all.
London cam: I think since €/$ is nearing the extreme now yet in line with say USD/CHF's 10 year cycle, USD lacks 200 pips of being at all time low with CHF..so there is still a bit of airspace to "hang out in" as I posted in previous days. But: I think the peak we're building now (compared to the big peaks of the past) may be "buffered" by the fact we are indeed at an extreme. Do I make sence here?
Baring outside unpredictables (when will US Treas "war of the worlds" to make super cheap $$ end?) I'd say we've definitely topped out and run out of beans (Treasury's "Frejole Gas Co." does have a limit) when we see 1.36. Then you can count on your 500 pip retrace pattern (2 to 4 of them), then the 2 year BIG decline to parity as I mentioned below.
The truth will be told in the next 3 weeks..just in time for Xmas.
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